WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Michael Darda  & Peter Tchir

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news a single best idea

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<v Speaker 1>and after the marathon yesterday, thanks to our team for

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<v Speaker 1>putting together a special edition yesterday five hours of Bloomberg surveillance.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm like, you know, are we really going to cover

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<v Speaker 1>a hearing for two hours? But it was fascinating. The

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<v Speaker 1>special things to Terry Haynes at Pangaea for joining us

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<v Speaker 1>as well and other worthies to give perspective as we

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<v Speaker 1>go to our special coverage of the inauguration. Look for

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<v Speaker 1>that Monday, Martin Luther King Day at twelve noon we

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<v Speaker 1>begin substantial coverage into the afternoon. I know David Kerra

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<v Speaker 1>will attend there as well. And today, just within the

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<v Speaker 1>blur of bank earnings, Alison Williams was outstanding with Bloomberg Intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>providing context to the mass and the scale of these

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<v Speaker 1>big banks. You've heard me say it before. I literally

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<v Speaker 1>think they're hiding how successful they are. That's a controversial statement,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'll make it as well. No controversy today that

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<v Speaker 1>the equity markets of the worry, of course, turning around

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<v Speaker 1>with the CPI disinflation report. At a thirty Before that,

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<v Speaker 1>we talked to Michael Darta of Roth Michael Darta talking

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<v Speaker 1>about the end of the mag seven boom.

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<v Speaker 2>I would say, from a sector based perspective, the areas

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<v Speaker 2>that have really dominated the performance of the S and

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<v Speaker 2>P five hundred, I would be I would be cautious

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<v Speaker 2>on from here, and we know what those are, you know.

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<v Speaker 2>I do think this rate spike, certainly, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>residential real estate market needs this rate spike like it

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<v Speaker 2>needs a hole in the head. So I do think

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<v Speaker 2>it will be damaging to parts of the economy, no

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<v Speaker 2>doubt about it. But if it, you know, if if

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<v Speaker 2>a surge in the term premium ends up being a

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<v Speaker 2>dragon growth and it's also self limiting to some extent,

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<v Speaker 2>So I think that can feedback into a story where

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<v Speaker 2>we want to actually be more bullish on bonds here,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, still bullish on the energy space, right, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>looking to areas that have not been dominating the performance

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<v Speaker 2>of the S and P five hundred, I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>time for a bit of a switch up.

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Darta Roth. One of the things we've done pushing

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<v Speaker 1>out I can't believe I'm saying this for over two decades,

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<v Speaker 1>is to provide a heritage, a character, a fabric to

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<v Speaker 1>who these people are. The first time I had Michael

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<v Speaker 1>darta on we talked about him, he was like, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think he could shave with Judewininski, who was a really,

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<v Speaker 1>really highly regarded more conservative voice within economics and data

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<v Speaker 1>was I think just out of Wisconsin at the time

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<v Speaker 1>working for Jude Weininsky. But all these guests have histories,

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<v Speaker 1>they have heritages. Peter Scheer is with academy securities in

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<v Speaker 1>more than any do you want to speak to. He

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<v Speaker 1>is hardwired into the dialogue of the Naval Academy and

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<v Speaker 1>the other military services. We digress today away from his

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<v Speaker 1>ability to participate in the markets, but still be cautious

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<v Speaker 1>about some of the worries picking up there, like leverage.

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<v Speaker 1>Peter Shecher on his academy securities, Peter Sheer on his

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<v Speaker 1>admirals and his.

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<v Speaker 3>Generals Beyond any individual. I think when our team talks,

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<v Speaker 3>they're looking for a military that progresses, figures out where

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to be. You know, I think there's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of questions. Do these large platforms still make sense,

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<v Speaker 3>do aircraft careers make sense? How much money should be

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<v Speaker 3>spending on bent on drones? What sort of technology do

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<v Speaker 3>we need how do we go forward, How do we

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<v Speaker 3>make the military so they hit the recruiting goals again. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>something's happened where Space Force and the Marine Corps hitting

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<v Speaker 3>their roles. So I think they need to revitalize this.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's a lot of concern about how this

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<v Speaker 3>is being led in the past, how it can be

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<v Speaker 3>led going forward. I think there's an optimism and at

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<v Speaker 3>the you know, individual soldier level, it's good. But how

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<v Speaker 3>do we prepare for the next war? Are we stretched

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<v Speaker 3>too thin? One of our generals, General Ashley, he quotes,

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<v Speaker 3>can't remember who he quotes, but this probably goes back

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<v Speaker 3>ten years ago. Our enemies used to fear us and

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<v Speaker 3>respect us. Then it switched to our enemies maybe no

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<v Speaker 3>longer respect us, but they fear us now. It's unclear

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<v Speaker 3>that they respect or fear us. Right, We've had so

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<v Speaker 3>much you know, measured response that we have to go

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<v Speaker 3>and figure out deterrence again properly. Deterrence clearly fell apart

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit. If a rans comfortable attacking Israel, if

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<v Speaker 3>Russia is attacking Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Valuable from Peter Scher of Academy Securities will continue with

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<v Speaker 1>our coverage, of course for the leadership of David Gura

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<v Speaker 1>and our entire Washington team on our political debate in

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<v Speaker 1>this nation, to the inauguration and into the second administration,

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<v Speaker 1>the second term for President Trump. On this commute across

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<v Speaker 1>the nation again, thank you. Ninety nine one FM Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg eleventh three to zero in New York, our flagship station,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course good morning across New England on ninety

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<v Speaker 1>two nine on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea