1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P and L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Well, 7 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: we've got an investment professional with us. Elaine Stokes is 8 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: the vice president co portfolio manager of the Loomis Sales 9 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 1: Bond Fund based in Boston, but Elaine joins us here 10 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: in our leven Thrio studio. Lane, thank you for coming in. 11 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: Can we just start off with more of a theoretical 12 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 1: question passive versus active investing, because that seems to be 13 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: a debate that continues specifically in the stock market, but 14 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: has now moved over into the bond market in a 15 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: in a really big way. Where where do you come 16 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: down on this and what are some of the advantages 17 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: and disadvantages of both of those strategies? Okay, um, Well, 18 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: you know I'm an active manager, so I have to start. 19 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: I know you you got that bios the bias. Okay, um, 20 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: let me start there, but uh, you know, this probably 21 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:23,639 Speaker 1: room for both UM. But when all of a sudden 22 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: done UM. I think what we're finding and from our 23 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: perspective is the more money that's going into passive is 24 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: going to a lot of it is going into a 25 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: new kind of passive, right the e t f s, 26 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: which are which are real fast money territory, and it's 27 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: going to do things like it did to the high 28 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: yield market last week. It's going to create more volatility 29 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: on news and that volatility is going to allow the 30 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: active managers who are doing the research and doing the 31 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: deep dives to take advantage of it. So you think 32 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: that the high old bond ETFs have exacerbated the atility 33 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: or caused it in the past few days, Is that right? 34 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: I think yeah, I think they exacerbated it, Yes, because 35 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: it's so easy in and out when UM of an 36 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: e t F Where what had happened prior to this 37 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:19,399 Speaker 1: is that UM mutual funds, we're making it harder for 38 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,399 Speaker 1: for timers to get in and out quickly because hey, 39 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: mutual funds want to invest for the long term. So 40 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: were you and was Loomas Sales actively buying specific credits 41 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: last week? And even you know today as the E 42 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: T F Cell it absolutely when the market is trading off, 43 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: you can you can expect that Loomas Sales is going 44 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: to be a buyer. So that means that you think 45 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: that this is a blip and it's time to have 46 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: your list of names and which things you like and 47 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: to get them on the cheap. Yeah, and you know 48 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: you have to remember when you're a true bond picker, 49 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: which we are, and your your research driven that even 50 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: if the market is going down and you think, I 51 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: think this, well, we think this volatility is going to continue. 52 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: There's a lot. I mean, look at the number of 53 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: news stories there were last week that were negative or 54 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 1: or created uncertainty. We expect they'll be continued volatility. But 55 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 1: if you've done your deep dive research, you take advantage 56 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: of each of these bouts of volatility to add a 57 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: little hair, add a little there. You're not spending your 58 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: last time yet. The notion that as an investor, you 59 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: hold this inventory and you want to hold it to maturity, 60 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: I would imagine unless someone's coming along and offering you 61 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,119 Speaker 1: a huge premium to what you paid, is that would 62 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: that be accurate? Or Yeah, you know, we are very 63 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: long term holders you know, um, you know easily hold 64 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: bonds three or four years. I have bonds that I 65 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: feel like I bought when they were issued and it's 66 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: twenty years later. Um. But it's a little bit more. 67 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: You have to act to the market. Not many stories 68 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: will last for the life of the bond exactly as 69 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: they were, you know, the short bonds, the three to 70 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: five years. Yes, but when you're you do what we do, 71 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: which is oftentimes we buy the long bond because that's 72 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: the lowest dollar price and that's where you have the 73 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: most upside. So we've noticed that the sectors that have 74 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 1: gotten uniquely punished over this sell off have been telecommunications 75 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 1: and healthcare. Are you buying in those sectors? Yes? Which 76 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: which do you think has been oversold most? Um, Well, 77 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 1: that's a good question. Uh, it's really been which name 78 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: and not not right now because we're still active in 79 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: the in the space. Um. But I think that you 80 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: can easily dig through, um, whether it's in healthcare, the 81 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: pharmaceutical names, or the health or the hospital companies, and 82 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: they're all being punished, and you can find the one 83 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: or two that are going to be long term okay 84 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:12,159 Speaker 1: companies just because something gets downgraded. Just because a company 85 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: um is moving to a different phase doesn't mean as 86 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: a bond investor you're not still going to get paid. 87 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,160 Speaker 1: You just might get more carry along the way. Can 88 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: you give any comment about this seemingly a trend where 89 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: governments and some corporates are issuing bonds fifty to a 90 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: hundred years into the future. Yeah. Um, we liked to 91 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 1: buy the long glow dollar price bond, but we also 92 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: also like to have some visibility into into the story, 93 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 1: you know, and a bond that is issued fifty hundred 94 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 1: years I guess only governments could do that, um, but hey, 95 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: we've even seen companies countries disappear right uh in in 96 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: this geopolitical environment would make me really, really nervous. It's 97 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: hard to envision the world in fifty years. And Elena, 98 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate 99 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: you coming in. Elaine Stokes, vice president and uh CO 100 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 1: portfolio manager of the Lomas Sales Bond Fund in Boston, 101 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: but she joins us here in our eleven three oh 102 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: studios lots of interesting things. Lomas is a buyer amid 103 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 1: the selling. As I mentioned earlier, we are awaiting testimony 104 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: from Attorney General Jeff Sessions in front of Congress, and 105 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: here to give us a preview of what to expect, 106 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: is Billy Billy House, Congressional reporter for Bloomberg. Billy, what 107 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 1: are we expecting to learn? Or is this simply going 108 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: to be an experience of uh sort of partisan bickering. 109 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 1: I love. We're gonna find out. And and actually the 110 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 1: chairman of the committee uh in this hearing is is 111 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 1: giving his open remarks right now the Attorney General Jeff 112 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: Sessions will speak momentarily. UH. What we're gonna find is 113 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: that Republicans are going to try to steer this conversation, 114 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: this hearing away from anything to do, if they could, 115 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: with the alleged Trump cooperation collusion with Russian meddling, uh 116 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: to to other areas, in fact, into investigations of Hillary 117 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: Clinton and her husband. Democrats meanwhile, we want to stick 118 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: to the topic and and go after Mr Sessions for 119 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: what they say are his inconsistent remarks about what he 120 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: knew about Russian context. Billy. There's also a report that 121 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 1: there are six Democratic senators that want an inspector general 122 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: investigation of Commerce Secretary Wilburg Ross. Why are they doing 123 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 1: all this. I mean, is this really substantive to the 124 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: operation of government or is this just inside the belt 125 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: Way UH politics? Well, UH ross thing. I think it's 126 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: quid pro quail. I mean, they've they've sat by as 127 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: Republicans in particularly in the House, for the last month, 128 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: have launched investigations into UH two thousand and ten uranium 129 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: deal involving UH members of the Obama administration, including Hillary Clinton. 130 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: They've launched new investigations into her email and UH scandal 131 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 1: and UH and into her dealings even with Benghazi still so, 132 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: I guess Democrats are scraping to find something to launch 133 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: of their own. UH six Democrats, though, won't get anything done. 134 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: They would need something from the majority. Does any of 135 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: this end up sticking? I mean, because if these people 136 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: stick around in Washington, they have to work with each other, 137 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: at least on the superficial level. Does any of this 138 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: create even more bad feelings and bad blood to the 139 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: point where no one's gonna work with anybody because they're 140 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 1: not gonna even talk to each other at us create 141 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: the bad letter does create at tensions that make even 142 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: the most basic bipartisanship difficult. However, the impact on the 143 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 1: American public is unclear. Polls are showing that, uh, the 144 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: Russia collusion investigation. Really at this point, even uh Special 145 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: Counsel Robert Mueller's probe hasn't registered much with them yet. 146 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 1: But we'll see what his findings are in the end. 147 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: I'm wondering what actually could come from these hearings, In 148 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: other words, is anything that will be said actionable? Well? Uh, 149 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 1: last night Justice Aspartment released a statement that it would 150 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: be looking into potentially uh some Clinton administration Hillary Clinton matters, 151 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: including this two thousand ten uranium deal. Uh. That opened 152 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: the door for the idea of a potential second special 153 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: prosecutors since Mr Sessions himself can't get involved. Uh, that 154 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 1: may possibly come out of and we'll see some discussion 155 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: of that this hearing. And just momentarily, Billy, you've looked 156 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: at the polls for the favorable or unfavorable rating from 157 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:12,359 Speaker 1: members of Congress, and certainly they don't need any guidance 158 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: as to what the public thinks about them. Why do 159 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,079 Speaker 1: they persist in the constant behavior that has given them 160 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: such low poll ratings. Uh. Well, Republicans, obviously heading into 161 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: a mid term election next year, want to hold onto 162 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: their majorities in both the House and Senate, and are 163 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 1: obviously worried about whatever is going to be found about 164 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: the Trump administration that could help drag them down. Democrats 165 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 1: are the reverse of that. They're seeing they're breathing heavy 166 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: a little bit about next year. Well, I'm just wondering, 167 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: Billy about the special prosecutor process. My impression was that 168 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:54,439 Speaker 1: it was for standing politicians are big political figures. Can 169 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: you sort of correct me on that, because it seems 170 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: like if they could open some kind of uh investigation 171 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 1: into a former politician that no longer has political cloud 172 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: in any kind of concrete way, is that is that quit? 173 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 1: Is that normal? Well, this with regard to Hillary Clinton 174 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: and her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Any Uh, this 175 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: is something that that the the Attorney Journal himself may 176 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: have brought upon himself. He recused himself from all matters 177 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: related to the Clintons. Therefore, any investigation at all into 178 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: wrongdoing by them in the past, by nature will require 179 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: a special counsel or prosecutor. That hasn't we haven't reached 180 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: that point yet. But it's it's what Republicans are drumming 181 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: up to kind of counter the noise over the Russian 182 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: inclusion investigation into the Trump campaign. Billy, is there any 183 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 1: way that you can offer any anecdote or story about 184 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 1: the mood that exists in Washington, Because not only do 185 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: you have the Attorney General testifying before the House Judiciary Committee, 186 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 1: but also you have the revelations regarding uh roy More, 187 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 1: the Republican candidate to replace Jeff Sessions as a Senator 188 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: for Alabama, and then you have this constant sniping. What 189 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: is what is the mood of the people who actually 190 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: have to live this on a day to day basis 191 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: of very negative, very negative in the House for instance, 192 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: Uh Uh, there's even uh upset on the Democrats part 193 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: that Speaker Paul Ryant, who promised to have one of 194 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 1: the most open speakerships in legislative processes in history, has 195 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 1: basically closed down any amendment system on the floor. Uh. 196 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: And this has been countered by uh, you know, absolutely 197 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 1: no Democratic buying on on the Republican tax overhaul plan. So, 198 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 1: I mean this is having real impact on legislation that 199 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 1: needs to get done. And Republicans are still trying to 200 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: as they did with the healthcare bill, trying to get 201 00:12:55,520 --> 00:13:00,079 Speaker 1: it done, um, even among disagreements with themselves. And this 202 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: all playing out against all these other weird developments. The 203 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: Alabama sent a race Donald Jrs WEEKI leagues communications, and uh, 204 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: of course the collusion investigations, of which we have multiple 205 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: panels looking into. Well, Billy, That's what I was gonna 206 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: ask you about, was we are all waiting whether or 207 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: not the GOP can get through the tax bill. And 208 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 1: I wonder, does this hearing that we're listening in on 209 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: today does this matter it turns to that policy, you 210 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: know what I mean? Does this sort of lift up 211 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 1: a roadblock for some of these policies, the most important 212 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: of which is the tax policy right now getting through? Well, 213 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 1: in one regard, I think it actually may force Republicans 214 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: to put their foot on the pedal, I mean, to 215 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: press down to get this thing done before something they 216 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 1: fear might really bad come out about their parties uh 217 00:13:56,160 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: elected president and uh uh and the difficulty in getting 218 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: anything done if parts of his campaign or even his 219 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: administration come under indictment. So what I think is happening 220 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,479 Speaker 1: is is this is speeding up the process for Republicans 221 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 1: now whether they can agree amongst themselves what exactly they 222 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: want an attax overhaul bill by Christmas is anybody's guest. 223 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: Right now, the Senate and the House are far apart. Billy. 224 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: You've also had the joy of having to write stories 225 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:28,479 Speaker 1: regarding Donald Trump Jr. And his relationship with Wiki Leaks 226 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: and also the Vice president. Could you just enlighten us 227 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, yesterday the Atlantic broke news about 228 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: congressional committees having copies of direct messages between week Leaks 229 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: and Donald Trump Jr. Both leading up to the election 230 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: last November and afterwards. This was kind of startling because 231 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: they've denied that, including Vice President Mike Pence, denied that 232 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 1: last year. Well, it turns out there were some communications, 233 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: not any A lot of it was polite responses from 234 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: messages from WEEKI Leaks by Donald Trump Jr. But some 235 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: some eyebrow raising communications that may suggest some coordination, if 236 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: not legal collusion. And the upshot was the Vice President 237 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: himself put out statement through a spokeswoman last night that 238 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 1: he was completely unaware of these contacts. All right, Well, Billy, 239 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: I want to thank you very much. Billy House is 240 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 1: our congressional reporter for Bloomberg. We're gonna let you get 241 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: back and organized for this hearing. Alright, for success in 242 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: retail we of course turned to BERTA. Flickinger. He joins 243 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 1: us as he was just speaking earlier during our program, 244 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 1: and of course we're monitoring what's going on in Washington 245 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: with the testimony of Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Bert Flickinger, 246 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: Managing director of Strategic Resource Group. The topic Walmart and 247 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: its plans versus. So let's say Target, Walmart will release 248 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: its results I believe on Thursday, right, and Target releases 249 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: results tomorrow. Is this really a tale of merchandizing that's 250 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 1: gone wrong? Or is there a vision, a strategic vision 251 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: that has just fallen off the sort of the radar 252 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: here with when it comes to Target, because they were 253 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: hot and Walmart was not him. It's the old Janis 254 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: Joplin a combination the two. Is you synthesize so well, 255 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: it's merchandizing, its vision and its leadership. Walmart has all 256 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: of the above, and targets really unbalanced in every area. 257 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: Why is that? Why? Why is Target not being able 258 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 1: to get its act together? I thought they were great 259 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 1: getting into the grocery business, and they were doing all 260 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 1: kinds of things with RF you know, radio frequency tags 261 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: and so on. They were, but it really coincides from Um, 262 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: the passing of Bruce Bliss Dayton, the last of the 263 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: Dayton brothers and the founding family and the last of 264 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: the Dayton CEO. She the best combination of family and 265 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 1: professional management. And then with Ulric and uh Steinhoffel and 266 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 1: now Cornell, you've got the Mackenzie what I call co 267 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 1: monarchy coming in. And one of the reasons, ironically best 268 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,439 Speaker 1: Buy really picked up in the last few years is 269 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: Target left so many of its best and brightest go 270 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,120 Speaker 1: they got picked up by best Buy. Walmart pushed out 271 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 1: all the politicians from poor executive search and now has 272 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: all the producers. And so it's like the days of 273 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: Mr Sam Walton, the founder from nineteen sixty two. Doug McMillan, 274 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: current Walmart CEO, was his last hand picked person. Doug 275 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: was banished to China by all all the politicians who 276 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: didn't want him there to be promoted. Since he came 277 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: back with Greg Varrant and many other talented people and 278 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: recruiting Dave Criscione from Amazon, it's they've turned the tables 279 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 1: and Target outsources everything, and hence his poor service there. 280 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: They've been out of stock on cough cold and Walmart 281 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 1: like Kroger has its own meteorologists, so they not only 282 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 1: have cough cold in stock, but they have it on order. 283 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: When I asked Target why they don't have it, they said, well, 284 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: we'll email Robbie the e t M. I said, what's that, 285 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:27,439 Speaker 1: they said, the Electronic Transportation Manager. He'll see if it's in, 286 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 1: so a lot of people be sick and we'll have 287 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 1: to have to go to Walmart and CVS and Walgreen's. Well, 288 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: you know, the the idea that Walmart has its own 289 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:42,959 Speaker 1: meteorologist is amazing. Uh. It also has been incredibly forward 290 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: thinking when it comes to becoming sort of a lender 291 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: in many ways or acting in a financial services capacity. 292 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 1: It's walpay is set to take over Venmo and uh 293 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 1: and even Apple pay uh in the near future just 294 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 1: because it has developed such a following with its clients. 295 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: I'm just wondering, from that perspective, how much do you 296 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: think Walmart's going to earn from its financial services arm 297 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,360 Speaker 1: And can you give us a sense of how long 298 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 1: this has been in the works. I mean, how quickly 299 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 1: has this popped up as a sort of dominant player. Uh, Lisa, 300 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 1: all great insights is always in for Walmart. It's something 301 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 1: I've been looking at for twenty five years. And as 302 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: you and PIM have reported well, with Walmart's lawsuits versus 303 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 1: the banks, GPC, general purpose credit card companies, Visa Master 304 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: discover uh AMAX for cheating up the interchange rates on 305 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 1: the on the debit cards uh and the and the 306 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: credit cards. Walmart has been looking at getting into financial 307 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: services for a long time. Under this administration, it's more accommodative, 308 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: but at the same time, it's Walmart doing good to 309 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: raise the standards of livings for society. Because when I 310 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:58,360 Speaker 1: go Route eleven, Route fifteen in the rural areas of Mississippi, Louisiana, Boaz, Alabama, 311 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 1: et cetera, you see pay day loans, title loans for cars, 312 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: trailer homes everybody else. People are down and out financially. 313 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: So Walmart's going with the cheapest loan systems to make 314 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:16,640 Speaker 1: their financial circumstances better for their consumers. Lower interchange rate 315 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: so they can in turn lower prices and lesa to 316 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 1: your great power rally of strength on high yield bonds. 317 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: Walmart's realizing that the vendors are really turning their backs 318 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: on the reverse category killers and the category dominant retailer. 319 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 1: So is the bonds trade down bankruptcy toys r US 320 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: trade down on pet smart bontan Stein Mart right aid. 321 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 1: Walmart's becoming a shopping center unto itself and trying to 322 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 1: capture the card data with the financial services. You're referencing 323 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: with the data and becoming the destination placed financially operationally, 324 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 1: UH and click and collectus as well as base basic 325 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: rhythm of retail and targets out of rhythm at this point. 326 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 1: Bert Flickincher always in rhythm, Thank you very much, Managing Director, 327 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: Strategic Resource Group, giving us some insight into the world 328 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: of Walmart and Target. Once again. Target will release its 329 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: results tomorrow. Walmart is scheduled to release its results on Thursday. 330 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 1: We have been talking about Venezuela, about the fact that 331 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: Venezuela put a X drug kingpin in charge of debt negotiations, 332 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 1: asked US investors to come down to Venezuela to discuss 333 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 1: these negotiations, and then very few of them, if any 334 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: actually want here to talk about this meeting, which lasted 335 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,199 Speaker 1: all of thirty minutes. Is Ben Bartonstein. He's Emerging Markets 336 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,479 Speaker 1: reporter for the America's for Bloomberg News coming to us 337 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: from Lima, Peru. Ben, thank you so much for joining us. 338 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: Can you just give us some color from this eating certainly, Lisa, Yeah, 339 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: there was lots of but very little substance from the 340 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: meeting in Caracas yesterday. Uh, these debt negotiations, which were 341 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: greeted with much fanfare, President Maduro saying more than four 342 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,239 Speaker 1: investors planning to attend, and the government literally rolling out 343 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: a red carpet for investors who arrived to the White 344 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 1: Palace um and we're greeted with goodie bags filled the 345 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: chocolates and coffee, serve a juice, rapaz and cochapas, which 346 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: are these venezuela and corn pancakes. But inside the White 347 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: Palace there was very little substance to the meeting itself. 348 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 1: The only Venezuelan official to speak was Vice President tark 349 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 1: Eli Sami, who, as you mentioned, was designated designated as 350 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: a drug kingpin by the U. S. Treasury in February. 351 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: He's been tasked to lead this debt renegotiation committee, and 352 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: he spent the majority of his talk railing against the 353 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: Trump administration, which has imposed tighter sank on the Venezuelan 354 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: government and discussing an international conspiracy that he feels is 355 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: meant to bring down the Maduro government. He did pledge 356 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: to continue paying debt both by petias of the state 357 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: oil company and the sovereign. That's been something that the 358 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: Madureau administration has taken much pride in doing. But in 359 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 1: terms of any significant proposals for how to restructure the debt, 360 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,679 Speaker 1: there was none of that. Hey Ben, When when does 361 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 1: the government run out of money? That's a great question. 362 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: That is something that traders have been asking themselves for 363 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 1: quite a while. PIM and really they have money as 364 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: long as it partially it comes down to when lender's 365 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: the last resort China and Russia decide that they no 366 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: longer will fill those roles. So that's something the market 367 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: has been looking at, trying to decipher when when they 368 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 1: will know long to have an alternative option to bail 369 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 1: them out. It's interesting Peta Vesa recently started tweeting, potentially 370 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: as a sign of them looking further to Asia. They 371 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:15,119 Speaker 1: recently started tweeting in Mandarin um eventually a way of 372 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: reaching out. Oh my gosh, I mean when we start 373 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,679 Speaker 1: passing through Twitter posts and the bag of chocolates to 374 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 1: get clues on Venezuela death situation. It's really quite a time. 375 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 1: Of course, last night SMP Global Ratings weighed in and said, 376 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: you know what, Venezuela, you guys really have defaulted. I 377 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 1: know that is DA, which is the Credit Committee of 378 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 1: IZDA is deciding whether or not Venezuela has breached credit 379 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 1: default swap contract that still is out there. But as 380 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 1: far as SMP is concerned, Venezuela is in default already. 381 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 1: Can you explain a little bit about what death this 382 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:53,160 Speaker 1: applies to and why this matters? Right? So, Fitch had 383 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: declared Petavesa in default yesterday evening, and SMP, of course 384 00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 1: declaring the sovereign in default. Fitch his decision came down 385 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 1: to delays on principal payments for the Petta Basis seventeen bonds, 386 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: whereas S and p s decision moving Venezuela sovereign into 387 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: selective default was due to delayed interest payments which were 388 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 1: actually do last month, but their grace periods expired over 389 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: this weekend. But potentially, based on the circumstances legally speaking, 390 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 1: that this could be less of a headline risk than 391 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 1: some might expect. There could actually be a lesson taken 392 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 1: from the state utility company Electricita de Caracas, which was 393 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: declared in default by its trustee guests on Friday, actually 394 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,879 Speaker 1: but actually is rallying significantly today, the most in eight years. 395 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: Uh and that being the case mostly due to comments 396 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 1: made by Finance Minister Simnzerpa over the weekend to Bloomberg 397 00:25:55,640 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: telling us that although there were some financial blockages in 398 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 1: terms of intermediary banks, they have since been resolved and 399 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 1: the company intends to to get that money to bond 400 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 1: holders this week. Ben. What you're you're joining us from 401 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: from Lima? What has been the reaction from other Latin 402 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:19,360 Speaker 1: American governments and business leaders about doing business either with 403 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 1: Venezuela or in Venezuela Another great question, PIM. Perhaps the 404 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 1: most recent reaction that we've had is when Mauricio Mockri, 405 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: the Argentine President, traveled to New York and made his 406 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: voice clear that he and a number of Latin American 407 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 1: leaders were supportive of the US ratcheting up sanctions, including 408 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 1: on Venezuela's oil. Ah. So that that's been something that's 409 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,239 Speaker 1: been obviously debated within the Trump administration. It would have 410 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 1: significant impact not only on Venezuela but on the U 411 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:58,680 Speaker 1: S consumer and that's why perhaps the Trump and administration 412 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 1: has been reluctant to go that far. But Mackrie's comments there, uh, 413 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: we're definitely but seen by some in the market as 414 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,280 Speaker 1: as a bit of a radical statement to make. It's 415 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 1: really a radical statement, even after the giving out chocolate 416 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: and tweeting in Mandarin. I guess it's a trifecta for 417 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: strange things that happened in the Venezuelan bond market. Alright, 418 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 1: we're gonna keep watching, You're gonna keep reporting. Much appreciated. 419 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 1: Ben barton Stein is the Emerging Markets America's reporter for 420 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, joining us from Lima, Peru. You know, I 421 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 1: just want to point out that Petavasa bonds that mature 422 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 1: have plunged today really dramatically, at three billion dollars of 423 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,479 Speaker 1: debt now trading twenty six cents on the dollar. So 424 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 1: it's been a really big market reaction. Thanks for listening 425 00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe 426 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever 427 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter, 428 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa A. Ramo. 429 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,919 Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us 430 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio