WEBVTT - John Liu on China's Covid Situation (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Alright, let's get to John lu now Bloomberg's executive editor

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<v Speaker 1>in Beijing here to talk about the latest on the

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<v Speaker 1>China COVID situation. And John, I want to start with

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<v Speaker 1>some of the rhetoric that was seeing in state media.

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<v Speaker 1>There was one article in Shinway that caught my eye,

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<v Speaker 1>in particular urging people to take responsibility for their own

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<v Speaker 1>health and follow good hygiene habits. So is this an

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<v Speaker 1>example of the government really stepping back in the COVID fights?

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<v Speaker 1>How important is this sort of wording. I think what

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<v Speaker 1>the government is trying to do now is to change

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<v Speaker 1>the public narrative around what COVID is and how China

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<v Speaker 1>and how the Chinese public should react to it. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>prior to this, China the official narrative was that COVID

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<v Speaker 1>was this really dangerous disease, that it was pathanogenic, that

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<v Speaker 1>people could die, and and we saw an example of

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<v Speaker 1>this the city of should Draw, which is not far

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<v Speaker 1>from Beijing. Uh there, two weeks ago there was a

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<v Speaker 1>rumor that should Drawn might become the sort of testing

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<v Speaker 1>ground for opening up and it actually spooked the population

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<v Speaker 1>there because people thought, you know, that it would result

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<v Speaker 1>in mass infections. And that's mass deaths and people started

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<v Speaker 1>panic buying. And so before China can actually open up,

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<v Speaker 1>they really need to get the public perception of the

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<v Speaker 1>virus change, to see the virus, says, being less dangerous,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe something akin to the flu. But this move to

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<v Speaker 1>kind of relax COVID restrictions, the pivot on the part

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<v Speaker 1>of the government has been stunning, I mean, and you've

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<v Speaker 1>got to trace it back I think to last Saturday night.

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<v Speaker 1>In some of the protest, young people out in force,

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<v Speaker 1>and they managed, from what I'm reading on Bloomberg, to

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<v Speaker 1>exploit some of the gaps in the firewall where the

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<v Speaker 1>Internet is concerned, and news of this was shared on

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<v Speaker 1>social media and by word of mouth at a very

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<v Speaker 1>quick rate, maybe quicker than the censors were kind of

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<v Speaker 1>prepared for, if at all. It talked to me a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about the extent to which young people in

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<v Speaker 1>China are are influencing the conversation now, because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the context here is that they've been stressed enormously and

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<v Speaker 1>you can only look at the unemployment rate among young people.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the fact that protesters were able to organize,

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<v Speaker 1>to get not organized, but to get the word out

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<v Speaker 1>that there was a protest happening that drew crowds, that

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<v Speaker 1>drew more people there I think speaks to how widespread

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<v Speaker 1>dissatisfaction with China's COVID policy has been because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the country has a sophisticated, far reaching censorship regime and

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<v Speaker 1>it was overwhelmed because there was too much being posted

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<v Speaker 1>on social media, too many videos, too many comments, too

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<v Speaker 1>much communication. There was just no way for that censorship

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<v Speaker 1>to be to be undertaken, uh as it does on

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<v Speaker 1>a day to day basis, And that was because there

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<v Speaker 1>was so many people I think over the last three

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<v Speaker 1>years this year, especially with mcrons spreading so broadly across

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<v Speaker 1>the country, the amount of lockdowns and testing and the

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<v Speaker 1>burden on people was just building to a point that

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, uh, there was something was going

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<v Speaker 1>to break and something good and that's that's what we saw.

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<v Speaker 1>And Sadden, Yeah, things of it quiet and down since them.

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<v Speaker 1>But do you since that we've seen the last of

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<v Speaker 1>the protests, what's the mood on the ground, Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think the I think more protests this weekend are relatively unlikely,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that's the that is the case because

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<v Speaker 1>because one the government is responding as you guys have

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<v Speaker 1>talked about, there are various measures being undertaken to try

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<v Speaker 1>and relieve some of this burden. You know, in Beijing,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, we just had a story yesterday that the

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<v Speaker 1>city authority is going to allow people to who are

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<v Speaker 1>infected to quarantine at home. That's gonna be a huge

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<v Speaker 1>thing for people, because a lot of people here were

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<v Speaker 1>more scared of being sent an isolation facility than they

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<v Speaker 1>were of the virus itself. As if you take that

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<v Speaker 1>off the table, it's gonna make people feel much better.

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<v Speaker 1>That those steps, combined with the fact that there are

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<v Speaker 1>just so many police out on the streets now, combined

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<v Speaker 1>with the fact that, you know, the government has very

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<v Speaker 1>publicly warned people that you know, they are not going

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<v Speaker 1>to tolerate behavior that mass demonstrations and opposition of the government,

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<v Speaker 1>and so I think it's pretty clear to people that

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<v Speaker 1>if they anybody who chooses to go out and demonstrate

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<v Speaker 1>this weekend is going to do so a great risk.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that means we're probably not going to

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<v Speaker 1>see gatherings over the next two days. John, earlier this

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<v Speaker 1>hour we were chatting Paul and I were chatting with

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<v Speaker 1>ting Lu Chief China economist at Nomura, and he has

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<v Speaker 1>prepared for a big spike in COVID infections that may

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<v Speaker 1>go on for several months from where you sit in Beijing.

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<v Speaker 1>Is the health care system able to handle this if

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<v Speaker 1>if there is that kind of shock and spike in

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<v Speaker 1>cases that need treatment. I think the answer is potentially no.

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<v Speaker 1>And the number of ICU beds in China per you know,

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people is very low. The health care system outside

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<v Speaker 1>of the big cities outside your Beijing, Shahai, Shinjin, Gwandjo

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<v Speaker 1>is fragile. If there is a big spike in serious cases,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it would put a lot of pressure on

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<v Speaker 1>the healthcare system. And I think that's what that's what

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<v Speaker 1>had had the government concerned about opening up, why they've

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<v Speaker 1>been so reluctant to do so. We've seem some size

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<v Speaker 1>that they're doing a new push to get seniors, those

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<v Speaker 1>over eighty vaccinated. There's a report out today from Taishi

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<v Speaker 1>magazine saying that the government is targeting getting those over

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<v Speaker 1>eighty at least one shot. I think that's that. That's

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<v Speaker 1>stat right now is hovering around seventies, so it's a

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<v Speaker 1>big jump and they want to get it done by

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<v Speaker 1>the end of January. So the challenge is very don

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<v Speaker 1>I have to say, yeah, and the hospitals up to

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<v Speaker 1>the task. Uh, I think that's I think it's questionable.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's very very questionable. And you know that

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<v Speaker 1>the government's going to try to do as much as

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<v Speaker 1>it can. But you know, this is this is where

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<v Speaker 1>the danger lies in terms of an exit, in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of a messy exit, is you know, the first the

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<v Speaker 1>initial first couple of months could be really difficult for

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<v Speaker 1>this country. Yeah, and I'm just wondering if any of

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<v Speaker 1>the policy changes we've seen, do you feel that there's

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<v Speaker 1>a response to the protests or was this or just

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<v Speaker 1>gonna happen anyway, just quickly. I think this is gonna

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<v Speaker 1>happen anyway. I think the protests have accelerated the pace

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<v Speaker 1>and speed at which China has exiting covies. You run,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, John Lou, We will have to leave it there,

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<v Speaker 1>but thanks so much for joining us. John On is

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's executive editor in Beijing.