Speaker 1: Alright, let's get to John lu now Bloomberg's executive editor
Speaker 1: in Beijing here to talk about the latest on the
Speaker 1: China COVID situation. And John, I want to start with
Speaker 1: some of the rhetoric that was seeing in state media.
Speaker 1: There was one article in Shinway that caught my eye,
Speaker 1: in particular urging people to take responsibility for their own
Speaker 1: health and follow good hygiene habits. So is this an
Speaker 1: example of the government really stepping back in the COVID fights?
Speaker 1: How important is this sort of wording. I think what
Speaker 1: the government is trying to do now is to change
Speaker 1: the public narrative around what COVID is and how China
Speaker 1: and how the Chinese public should react to it. I mean,
Speaker 1: prior to this, China the official narrative was that COVID
Speaker 1: was this really dangerous disease, that it was pathanogenic, that
Speaker 1: people could die, and and we saw an example of
Speaker 1: this the city of should Draw, which is not far
Speaker 1: from Beijing. Uh there, two weeks ago there was a
Speaker 1: rumor that should Drawn might become the sort of testing
Speaker 1: ground for opening up and it actually spooked the population
Speaker 1: there because people thought, you know, that it would result
Speaker 1: in mass infections. And that's mass deaths and people started
Speaker 1: panic buying. And so before China can actually open up,
Speaker 1: they really need to get the public perception of the
Speaker 1: virus change, to see the virus, says, being less dangerous,
Speaker 1: maybe something akin to the flu. But this move to
Speaker 1: kind of relax COVID restrictions, the pivot on the part
Speaker 1: of the government has been stunning, I mean, and you've
Speaker 1: got to trace it back I think to last Saturday night.
Speaker 1: In some of the protest, young people out in force,
Speaker 1: and they managed, from what I'm reading on Bloomberg, to
Speaker 1: exploit some of the gaps in the firewall where the
Speaker 1: Internet is concerned, and news of this was shared on
Speaker 1: social media and by word of mouth at a very
Speaker 1: quick rate, maybe quicker than the censors were kind of
Speaker 1: prepared for, if at all. It talked to me a
Speaker 1: little bit about the extent to which young people in
Speaker 1: China are are influencing the conversation now, because you know,
Speaker 1: the context here is that they've been stressed enormously and
Speaker 1: you can only look at the unemployment rate among young people.
Speaker 1: I think the fact that protesters were able to organize,
Speaker 1: to get not organized, but to get the word out
Speaker 1: that there was a protest happening that drew crowds, that
Speaker 1: drew more people there I think speaks to how widespread
Speaker 1: dissatisfaction with China's COVID policy has been because you know,
Speaker 1: the country has a sophisticated, far reaching censorship regime and
Speaker 1: it was overwhelmed because there was too much being posted
Speaker 1: on social media, too many videos, too many comments, too
Speaker 1: much communication. There was just no way for that censorship
Speaker 1: to be to be undertaken, uh as it does on
Speaker 1: a day to day basis, And that was because there
Speaker 1: was so many people I think over the last three
Speaker 1: years this year, especially with mcrons spreading so broadly across
Speaker 1: the country, the amount of lockdowns and testing and the
Speaker 1: burden on people was just building to a point that
Speaker 1: I think, you know, uh, there was something was going
Speaker 1: to break and something good and that's that's what we saw.
Speaker 1: And Sadden, Yeah, things of it quiet and down since them.
Speaker 1: But do you since that we've seen the last of
Speaker 1: the protests, what's the mood on the ground, Well, I
Speaker 1: think the I think more protests this weekend are relatively unlikely,
Speaker 1: and I think that's the that is the case because
Speaker 1: because one the government is responding as you guys have
Speaker 1: talked about, there are various measures being undertaken to try
Speaker 1: and relieve some of this burden. You know, in Beijing,
Speaker 1: for example, we just had a story yesterday that the
Speaker 1: city authority is going to allow people to who are
Speaker 1: infected to quarantine at home. That's gonna be a huge
Speaker 1: thing for people, because a lot of people here were
Speaker 1: more scared of being sent an isolation facility than they
Speaker 1: were of the virus itself. As if you take that
Speaker 1: off the table, it's gonna make people feel much better.
Speaker 1: That those steps, combined with the fact that there are
Speaker 1: just so many police out on the streets now, combined
Speaker 1: with the fact that, you know, the government has very
Speaker 1: publicly warned people that you know, they are not going
Speaker 1: to tolerate behavior that mass demonstrations and opposition of the government,
Speaker 1: and so I think it's pretty clear to people that
Speaker 1: if they anybody who chooses to go out and demonstrate
Speaker 1: this weekend is going to do so a great risk.
Speaker 1: And I think that means we're probably not going to
Speaker 1: see gatherings over the next two days. John, earlier this
Speaker 1: hour we were chatting Paul and I were chatting with
Speaker 1: ting Lu Chief China economist at Nomura, and he has
Speaker 1: prepared for a big spike in COVID infections that may
Speaker 1: go on for several months from where you sit in Beijing.
Speaker 1: Is the health care system able to handle this if
Speaker 1: if there is that kind of shock and spike in
Speaker 1: cases that need treatment. I think the answer is potentially no.
Speaker 1: And the number of ICU beds in China per you know,
Speaker 1: thousand people is very low. The health care system outside
Speaker 1: of the big cities outside your Beijing, Shahai, Shinjin, Gwandjo
Speaker 1: is fragile. If there is a big spike in serious cases,
Speaker 1: I think it would put a lot of pressure on
Speaker 1: the healthcare system. And I think that's what that's what
Speaker 1: had had the government concerned about opening up, why they've
Speaker 1: been so reluctant to do so. We've seem some size
Speaker 1: that they're doing a new push to get seniors, those
Speaker 1: over eighty vaccinated. There's a report out today from Taishi
Speaker 1: magazine saying that the government is targeting getting those over
Speaker 1: eighty at least one shot. I think that's that. That's
Speaker 1: stat right now is hovering around seventies, so it's a
Speaker 1: big jump and they want to get it done by
Speaker 1: the end of January. So the challenge is very don
Speaker 1: I have to say, yeah, and the hospitals up to
Speaker 1: the task. Uh, I think that's I think it's questionable.
Speaker 1: I think it's very very questionable. And you know that
Speaker 1: the government's going to try to do as much as
Speaker 1: it can. But you know, this is this is where
Speaker 1: the danger lies in terms of an exit, in terms
Speaker 1: of a messy exit, is you know, the first the
Speaker 1: initial first couple of months could be really difficult for
Speaker 1: this country. Yeah, and I'm just wondering if any of
Speaker 1: the policy changes we've seen, do you feel that there's
Speaker 1: a response to the protests or was this or just
Speaker 1: gonna happen anyway, just quickly. I think this is gonna
Speaker 1: happen anyway. I think the protests have accelerated the pace
Speaker 1: and speed at which China has exiting covies. You run,
Speaker 1: all right, John Lou, We will have to leave it there,
Speaker 1: but thanks so much for joining us. John On is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's executive editor in Beijing.