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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak You Up podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify

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Speaker 1: or wherever you listen. It's Thursday, the fourth of July

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Speaker 1: here in London.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. A steady drumbeat

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Speaker 2: of concerns turns up the pressure on President Joe Biden's

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Speaker 2: bid for re election.

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Speaker 1: President Zelenski challenges Donald Trump to reveal his plan for

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Speaker 1: ending the war in Ukraine in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Plus. This election day in the UK, millions head to

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Speaker 2: the polls as the public have their say on the

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Speaker 2: next government.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden has vowed to stay in the US presidential

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Speaker 2: race despite mounting pressure on him to stand down. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: the New York Times reporter that Biden had told an

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Speaker 2: ally he was weighing up whether to continue after his

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Speaker 2: performance and last week's debate raised questions about his fitness

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Speaker 2: for office. But the White House Press secretary, carrying Jean Pierre,

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Speaker 2: says the paper is reporting is wrong.

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Speaker 3: He's moving forward as being president. He's moving forward with

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Speaker 3: his campaign and that is the president's focus. The president's

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Speaker 3: focus is how does he continue to do that work.

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Speaker 3: Anything else that we're hearing or that's being reported is.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely false, despite denials from the White House Press secretary.

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Speaker 2: The story is added to growing anxiety among Democrats that

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Speaker 2: the president would lose in a head to head with

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and a senior party official told Bloomberg the

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Speaker 2: dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding

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Speaker 2: Biden withdraw from the race, but Biden insists he's going nowhere,

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Speaker 2: and in a call alongside Vice President Kamala Harris, said

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Speaker 2: I'm in this race to the end.

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Speaker 1: Despite the growing pressure on Joe Biden, Democratic governors say

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Speaker 1: that they're standing behind the president in his bid for reelection.

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Speaker 1: Following a meeting at the White House. With more Here

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's Ed Baxter on the governor's comments.

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Speaker 4: After that meeting, Governor Wes Moore says he is convinced

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Speaker 4: that Biden is in to win.

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Speaker 5: We know we have work to do. We know that,

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Speaker 5: as we're standing right here, we're behind, but we also

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Speaker 5: know that that path to be able to make sure

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Speaker 5: that we can pull ahead in November is real and

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Speaker 5: it's going to take all of us in order to

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Speaker 5: make it happen and to make it work.

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Speaker 4: In Minnesota, Governor Tim Wall says Biden is fit for office.

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Speaker 4: New York Governor Kathy Hokel also adding support, as did

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Speaker 4: Governor's Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who posted

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Speaker 4: He's in it to win it. I support him, ed

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Speaker 4: Baxter Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Zelenski is challenging Donald Trump to reveal his plan

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Speaker 2: for quickly ending the war with Russia. Speaking to Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: the Ukrainian president warned a US proposal to and fighting

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Speaker 2: could end up violating the nation's sovereignty.

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Speaker 6: If Trump knows how to end this war, he should

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Speaker 6: tell us today, because if there are risks to Ukraine's independence,

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Speaker 6: if there are risks that we will lose the statehood,

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Speaker 6: we want to be prepared for this.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine's President Zelenski there speaking through a translator. During the

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Speaker 2: US election debate last week, Trump boaster that he would

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Speaker 2: end the war by the time he's inaugurated in January

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Speaker 2: if he were re elected. The former president has a

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Speaker 2: fraud relationship with Zelenski, accusing him of corruption and pressuring

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Speaker 2: him to investigate allegations against Biden.

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Speaker 1: In the general election today here in the UK, just

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Speaker 1: over six weeks since the ballot was called, voters will

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Speaker 1: have their say on the next government today, with polling

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Speaker 1: stations open from seven am to ten pm tonight. Political

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Speaker 1: parties need to secure more than half the six hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty seats across the country to form a majority government.

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Speaker 1: This is the first general election where voter ID will

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Speaker 1: be required after new rules were introduced in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV and Radio will have special coverage once the

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Speaker 1: polls close tonight ten pm, with analysis through the night

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Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal and website.

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Speaker 2: In France, Marie Lepenn has criticized efforts to keep her

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Speaker 2: far right party from power. Speaking to French TV station Teafan,

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Speaker 2: the politician denounced efforts by President Macron's Centrist group and

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Speaker 2: the left wing Alliance to block an absolute majority for

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Speaker 2: the national rally.

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Speaker 7: I find it quite contemptuous of the political parties to

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Speaker 7: consider voters a bit like things that one can move around,

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Speaker 7: to whom one says, do this, say that, or like children. Yes,

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Speaker 7: it's always been like this, but I think the French

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Speaker 7: have had enough of not being treated like responsible adults

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Speaker 7: who are perfectly capable of knowing for themselves what's good

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Speaker 7: for the country and what's not.

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Speaker 2: Marie Lapenn. They're speaking through a translator. Political groups opposed

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Speaker 2: to the National Rally have strategically pulled two hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty three candidates out of constituencies with more than two

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Speaker 2: people in Sunday's runoff vote to avoid split opposition to

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Speaker 2: the far right. A poll by Tanula Harris Interactive conducted

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Speaker 2: this week showed the National Rally and its allies on

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Speaker 2: track for between one hundred and ninety and two hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty seeds, short of the two hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: nine needed for an outright majority.

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Speaker 1: FED officials say that they're waiting for additional evidence that

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Speaker 1: inflation is cooling. At the last meeting, policymakers were also

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Speaker 1: divided on how long to keep interest rates elevated. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee has more on the minutes from the fed's

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Speaker 1: June the twelfth.

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Speaker 8: Meeting, Policymakers were divided over the effect on policy and growth.

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Speaker 8: Some noted there was uncertainty about the degree of restrictiveness,

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Speaker 8: with most participants viewing current rates as restrictive, while some

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Speaker 8: thought they might be less so because the economy's strength

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Speaker 8: showed the longer run equilibrium interest rate was higher than

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Speaker 8: previously assessed.

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Speaker 1: Mike McKee, they're discussing the Fed minutes. Several officials also

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Speaker 1: said that a further weakening in the labor market could

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Speaker 1: generate a larger increase in unemployment in those minutes. It

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Speaker 1: comes as private payroll provider ADP said that American companies

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Speaker 1: added one hundred and fifty thousand jobs last month, although

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Speaker 1: that was below estimate on Friday. Will get the government's

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Speaker 1: read on non farm payrolls for June now in a moment,

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Speaker 1: more on the speculation about Joe Biden's future and the

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Speaker 1: latest from the Federal Reserve on the path the head

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Speaker 1: for interest rates. But we mentioned that the UK goes

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Speaker 1: to the polls today for the general election, with some

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Speaker 1: forty six million people eligible to vote. Broadcast rules in

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Speaker 1: the UK mean that we aren't discussing the campaigning as

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Speaker 1: people go to the polls. The idea is to give

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Speaker 1: voters the space to reflect on their choices as they

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Speaker 1: go to the ballot box. We will of course have

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Speaker 1: full coverage of all of the results in special programming

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Speaker 1: for you beginning late this evening and then into tomorrow morning.

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Speaker 2: Well let's get more now in the mountain pressure on

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Speaker 2: US President Joe Biden to drop out of November's election,

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Speaker 2: this as the White House has denied a report that

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Speaker 2: Biden had considered the possibility of quitting to a key

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Speaker 2: alle our em and his director, Rosalind Matheson is with

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Speaker 2: us in studio for more this morning. Good morning to you, raz.

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Speaker 2: How serious is this gatting for Joe Biden.

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Speaker 9: Well, certainly, the narrative is picking up speed and pretty quickly,

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Speaker 9: and from a variety of quarters, not just in the media,

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Speaker 9: but also you know, Democrat lawmakers, senior Democrat officials, and

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Speaker 9: it's a narrative that will be increasingly difficult to contain,

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Speaker 9: and so once it's in the psyche, it's very hard

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Speaker 9: to put it back in the box. And it does

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Speaker 9: seem as though there are now really serious questions being

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Speaker 9: asked about Biden's stamina to go into the election, to

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Speaker 9: win an election, and then to govern for another four years.

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Speaker 9: And you can see that also by the response from

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Speaker 9: the White House from Joe Biden himself, but also his

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Speaker 9: senior officials.

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Speaker 10: They know that this is getting quite dangerous for him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, the difficulty of the White House his efforts to

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Speaker 1: push back then on this speculation. So who are the

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Speaker 1: key players to watch now?

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Speaker 9: What's interesting to see the narrative start to coalesce around

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Speaker 9: Kamala Harris, Vice President Kamala Harris. She's polling pretty well

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Speaker 9: in some opinion polls against Donald Trump. She's also the

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Speaker 9: natural second in line. It doesn't mean to be automatic.

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Speaker 9: You can imagine there'd be an effort to try and

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Speaker 9: get around one candidate quickly in the event that Joe

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Speaker 9: Biden did step aside, rather than going to a convention

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Speaker 9: and having a messy kind of race, going on a

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Speaker 9: competition for it. But some other names, they're in a

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Speaker 9: mix of some of the governors. The questions do they

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Speaker 9: have the national resident residents at this point to try

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Speaker 9: and gather voters together with only months before the election.

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Speaker 9: Of course, those are some of the governors. Gavin Newsom,

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Speaker 9: we've got JB.

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Speaker 10: Pritzker.

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Speaker 9: Also, we've got a Gretchen Whitmer. There's quite a lot

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Speaker 9: of conversation around her. But again, these are names that

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Speaker 9: may have some resonance within parts of the US, but

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Speaker 9: do they have the national theft to take on Donald

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Speaker 9: Trump with only months ago? So really, at this point

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Speaker 9: it seems like the conversation is mostly around Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 2: Is this a gift to Donald Trump's campaign, that this

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Speaker 2: continued pressure is put on Joe Biden, because of course

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Speaker 2: the last time around it was very much a campaign

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Speaker 2: run as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency.

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Speaker 9: It's very interesting because Donald Trump's gone very quiet, which

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Speaker 9: is not like him. Normally he likes to be added

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Speaker 9: about commenting. But perhaps he's showing some restraint and knowing

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Speaker 9: that if he just gives the air at the moment

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Speaker 9: to what's going on within the Democrats, he can let

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Speaker 9: that play out. That is that quite of course, about

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Speaker 9: let them make their own mistakes and not get in

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Speaker 9: the middle of that.

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Speaker 10: So he's being very quiet about it, and.

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Speaker 9: That suggests he does know that this could be a

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Speaker 9: potential gift to him in the campaign. I mean, at

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Speaker 9: this point, the only conversation and the Democrats and Joe Biden.

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Speaker 9: It's not his record, it's not the state of the economy,

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Speaker 9: it's not foreign policy, not what he'd do another four

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Speaker 9: years it's simply about his age.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so potentially others thinking about what maybe a

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Speaker 1: second Trump presidency might mean. And so to the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: interview with the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski, absolutely blunt from Zelensky.

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Speaker 1: If you've got a plan for ending the war, tell

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Speaker 1: us what it is now. You know it was quite

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Speaker 1: significant his intervention, wasn't it?

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Speaker 8: It was?

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Speaker 9: And it also sort of shows a pragmatism on the

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Speaker 9: part of Zolensky in an interview with Mr Horden, that

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Speaker 9: he knows he may be dealing with a Trump presidency,

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Speaker 9: and he knows that he needs to get a sense

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Speaker 9: quickly of what that would look like.

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Speaker 10: He and Donald Trump have a pretty fraught history.

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Speaker 9: I mean Donald Trump has accused Lynsky of corruption essentially,

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Speaker 9: and has also been very critical of the war, not

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Speaker 9: Russia invading Ukraine, but the war itself, and so he

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Speaker 9: would need to reset that relationship. He also needs any

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Speaker 9: sense that weapons and aid would continue to come from

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Speaker 9: the US. I mean, Trump is also oddly pragmatic when

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Speaker 9: he needs to be. He does what is best for

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Speaker 9: him in the minute, and Zelensky does recognize that.

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Speaker 10: And so you could see.

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Speaker 9: A way perhaps where they could have a proper conversation,

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Speaker 9: and if he can convince Donald Trump of certain things,

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Speaker 9: and Donald Trump.

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Speaker 10: Think that's in his best interest, then he might just

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Speaker 10: go for it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Raza Mason at Emi andis director, thank you very

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Speaker 2: much for joining us.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 1: The minutes of the last Fed Reserve meeting show that

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Speaker 1: officials said that they are awaiting additional evidence that inflation's cooling.

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Speaker 1: That they were also divided on how long to keep

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Speaker 1: interest rates elevated treasuries rallied. Also after new data showed

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Speaker 1: that the US labor market is continuing to cool and

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Speaker 1: declines also in the services sector. Let's bring in Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Garfield Reynold, who leads our Markets Live team in Asia,

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Speaker 1: to discuss and have a think about those minutes. Garfield,

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Speaker 1: good morning, What exactly do you think we learned from

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Speaker 1: those minutes top of June meeting.

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Speaker 11: Well, I think we learned most importantly that there's a

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Speaker 11: bit of a crack opening up there quite of division year.

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Speaker 11: We had four FMC members who are penciling in zero

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Speaker 11: cuts and then eight that were looking at two. So

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Speaker 11: the one cut that was you know, the official dot plot.

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Speaker 11: It sort of stresses the idea that you're you're that's

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Speaker 11: almost like your cought between like not doing zero or

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Speaker 11: two and that's a one is kind of what you

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Speaker 11: landed on. And there was a lot of emphasis on, yeah,

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Speaker 11: that that patience that's needed because they were obviously very

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Speaker 11: concerned about the revival inflationary pressures that became apparent in

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Speaker 11: the early stages of this year, and at the same time,

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Speaker 11: there was also an increase in the level of conn

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Speaker 11: about the potential for the labor market to turn sour

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Speaker 11: very rapidly. There have been some indications that the labor

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Speaker 11: market is softening, and I think a lot of the

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Speaker 11: FMC members are aware that in previous downturns, when the

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Speaker 11: labor market turns soft, it turns soft very very rapidly,

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Speaker 11: and there's often a very quick shift from job's growth

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Speaker 11: to job losses. And that's exactly the sort of quick

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Speaker 11: shift that they want to avoid as they continue to

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Speaker 11: target a so called soft landing for the economy.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course we've been hearing from a couple of

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Speaker 2: FAT policy makers they've been in centro with at the

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Speaker 2: ECB Central Banking Forum there as well. How does what

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Speaker 2: we've heard in the past couple of days, I suppose

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Speaker 2: add to the detail that's in those minutes.

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Speaker 11: Well, I mean, the main thing that was added was

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Speaker 11: that there's some level your power for example, did say

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Speaker 11: that the more recent data releases have on the right path.

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Speaker 11: You know, they are still overall saying that it's going

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Speaker 11: to take more time for them to be confident that

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Speaker 11: inflation is under control, but they're movie, you know, they

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Speaker 11: do see what's been going on with the data pulses,

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Speaker 11: signaling that they can you know, they can see that

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Speaker 11: there's the potential they will be confident, perhaps a bit

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Speaker 11: sooner than they might have thought that was going to

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Speaker 11: be that tipping point, even just a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 11: let alone, you know, six weeks ago or so.

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Speaker 1: They've also been pretty big moves in treasury yields, aren't there,

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Speaker 1: And we've also got the big job support coming out

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Speaker 1: on Friday? So how do we factor that.

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Speaker 11: In the political term was definitely sent yields up as

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Speaker 11: investors account for better chances that Trump will win and

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Speaker 11: inste policies that might be inflationary or might swell the

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Speaker 11: deficit and drive long term yields up. So that helped

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Speaker 11: to set the treasury market up for a strong rally

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Speaker 11: on the week data that came out yesterday, so did

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Speaker 11: the shortened session that we had. But also, you know,

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Speaker 11: the market is looking ahead to you know, the three

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Speaker 11: big events in the coming you know week or so

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Speaker 11: that will help to give them a better guide as

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Speaker 11: to what's going to go on. And that's jobs this Friday.

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Speaker 11: Then next week we have Powell speaking to Congress, and

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Speaker 11: then after that, you know, we get the inflation data

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Speaker 11: so that you know, those are really really key. And

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Speaker 11: if we get a continuation of the trend on the

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Speaker 11: data that we've seen and Powe you know, continues the

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Speaker 11: trend towards the slightly soft stance that we've seen from

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Speaker 11: Fed speakers, then you could see you know, really serious

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Speaker 11: treasury rally coming through, or other things being equal.

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