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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just mout that at.

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Speaker 2: All.

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Speaker 1: Right, here we go from throwing out spect, we're sitting

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Speaker 1: up to cash. We see most gamblers when they go

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Speaker 1: to gamble, they go to swin. That's incredible, big bank small.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combining and you want

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Speaker 2: to fall and we are underway?

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Speaker 1: What is up?

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Speaker 2: Everyone?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by bet M

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Speaker 1: g M the King of sportsbook. I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 1: Oh but the Action Network, And today we've got our

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Speaker 1: NFL Player Projections podcast for week number fourteen. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: run through our top five players at each skilled position,

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Speaker 1: discuss players we're especially high and low on this week,

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Speaker 1: and of course throw out a player prop for each position.

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Speaker 1: Here to break it down with me one of the

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Speaker 1: top rankers in the game, the odds maker, Sean Turner. Sean,

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Speaker 1: what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Stop hanging in there but doing good? How about you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Same are hanging in there?

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Speaker 2: Uh?

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Speaker 1: This is uh, this is a packed week. We got

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Speaker 1: what thirty just got through projecting thirty teams. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: I have never had to do that for a couple

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Speaker 1: for a while.

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Speaker 2: Cardinals and Commanders are on by this. Yep, there are

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Speaker 2: the last teams on by right, So.

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Speaker 1: The two teams at the opposite end of the alphabet,

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals my spreadsheet and the last. So yeah, I

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Speaker 1: wonder that was intentional about us schedule makers. But yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we got everyone else. We've got some quarterback injuries we

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Speaker 1: got to get to. Uh, it's a lot going on

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Speaker 1: this week, so let's get right into it. Start with QB.

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Speaker 1: Who do you have in your top five for week

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Speaker 1: number fourteen? Uh?

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Speaker 2: Pretty typical. I got Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mallhan,

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Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen.

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Speaker 1: Yep, Hurts, Prescott, Mahomes, Jackson, Allen. That's I don't think

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Speaker 1: we've exactly matched in a while. I might I feel like,

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Speaker 1: as I tinker, I might have to flip Prescott and

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Speaker 1: Hurts though, because Prescott, you know, is it like Dallas

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Speaker 1: since the buye. I think they're playing a little different

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Speaker 1: and so once I kind of adjust for that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're throwing more downs. Uh, you know Brandon Cooks, getting

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Speaker 1: him a lot more involved. Uh, you know, not putting

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Speaker 1: gallop on the field as much, kind of splitting their

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Speaker 1: reps with toward I really like what they've done, just

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Speaker 1: about it they I mean, they just look unstoppable right now.

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Speaker 1: And that's this Eagle defense has proven it is not

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Speaker 1: in top form right now.

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Speaker 2: Correct, may may just.

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Speaker 1: Not be all year because I mean, you know, they

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Speaker 1: got they got guys healthy, and they're still getting torched

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Speaker 1: by good teams. So who do you got? Who are

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Speaker 1: you high?

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Speaker 2: So, assuming Derek Carr ends up missing this week, I'm

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Speaker 2: high on Jameis Winston. I have him as my QB

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Speaker 2: sixteen right now, which puts him in play for you

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Speaker 2: know the streaming discussion this week. It's a great matchup

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Speaker 2: against the Panthers too. I mean there is some risk,

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Speaker 2: you know, his upside is going to be capped and

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Speaker 2: what should be a more you know, run heavy leading

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Speaker 2: game script, but I still think Winston could make a

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Speaker 2: few big plays. Potentially has you know, a multi touchdown

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Speaker 2: game here. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal,

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Speaker 2: and it'll be even better if Rashid Shihied can return

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Speaker 2: this week. So I always love Winston whenever he's starting,

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Speaker 2: but I think he could be an upgrade of a car.

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Speaker 2: So if he does start, he has a good game,

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Speaker 2: there's a chance, you know, he gets another start after that,

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Speaker 2: even once car is healthy. So if you're really hurting

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Speaker 2: a quarterback, you can stash him this week and you

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Speaker 2: might get more than one week out of him. But

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Speaker 2: I do like his upside here against the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what a surprise. Derek Carr struggling, What a surprise,

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Speaker 1: first time Dennis Allen struggling. What a surprise. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think I think you're right, like it's he's definitely

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Speaker 1: he's my QB fifteen. So yeah, I'm actually a little

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Speaker 1: bit higher. But yeah, assuming Derek Carr misses, I think

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Speaker 1: it's a there's a lot of bad spots this week,

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Speaker 1: just because it's a lot of weather, a lot of backups,

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Speaker 1: and then you know, tough matchups. So you know, getting

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Speaker 1: this Carolina team indoors for jamis definitely not the worst,

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Speaker 1: not the worst thing. I am high on Jake Browning

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Speaker 1: against the Indianapolis Colts. He's the ECR QB twenty, he

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Speaker 1: is my QB thirteen. And listen, there's gonna be weather

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Speaker 1: throughout the league, so that is something to pay attention to,

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Speaker 1: especially when you're looking for a streaming quarterback. But at

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Speaker 1: this point, you know, Jake Brown and going up against uh,

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Speaker 1: pretty mediocre Indianapolis coach defense with this full compliment of weapons,

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Speaker 1: Chase Higgins, h Tyler Boyd mixing played well on Monday night.

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Speaker 1: Chase Brown got involved in the in the run game,

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Speaker 1: so like that offense looks better and he's throwing He's

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Speaker 1: throwing a lot of short passes. For the most part,

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Speaker 1: I think he completed thirty two or thirty seven against

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars, and Jaguars were a top five defense by

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Speaker 1: DVOA entering that Monday night game, So it was impressive.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I think he's a guy we have

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Speaker 1: to pay attention to now because you know, he showed promise.

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Speaker 1: You know, the the eye test didn't look terrible and

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Speaker 1: the numbers didn't even look terrible. But that, like a

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Speaker 1: lot of it was hard to handicap because I think

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Speaker 1: he had what three deflections against Pittsburgh that ended up

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Speaker 1: in the hands of Jamar Chase instead of the defense.

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Speaker 1: And then he also throw through a really bad interception

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Speaker 1: in the red zone against Pittsburgh. But uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: it seems like he kind of took looked at the film,

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Speaker 1: made some adjustments and came out firing against a really

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Speaker 1: good defense and played really well. So, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: he can run a little bit, he's got a he's

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Speaker 1: got great weapons.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: The only thing is the weather could be a factor.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at, you know, wins in the double digits

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Speaker 1: and there is a chance of rain as well as

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Speaker 1: we record this on Tuesday, so monitor that. But that's

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Speaker 1: true of pretty much half the league. And so that

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Speaker 1: just kind of brings you back here to Jake Browning.

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Speaker 1: So I have him QB thirteen, and I think he's

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Speaker 1: another guy that's kind of in that in that streamer

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Speaker 1: discussion as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's my QB fourteen. You you mentioned that he

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Speaker 2: does have rushing upside too. He hasn't really needed to

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Speaker 2: tap into that as much, but yeah, I wish you

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Speaker 2: know this Jake Browning showed up and I had them

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Speaker 2: plus two and a half kins of Steelers. But I

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Speaker 2: mean he looked really good last time. It was I

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Speaker 2: think it was a Tanner Hudson uh completion where it

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Speaker 2: looked like he was open, but he had to put

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Speaker 2: some nice touch on it, like over a linebacker and

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Speaker 2: lead him and it was just a perfect throw. He

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Speaker 2: had so many throws that he looked like a season vet.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think, you know, he's looking good. He

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Speaker 2: has one of the best wide receiver groups in the league.

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Speaker 2: So he's definitely in that streamer discussion this week. And

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Speaker 2: we'll have to check the weather, but right now, he's

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Speaker 2: right there on that cust for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And you know, we've seen this like time and

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Speaker 1: time again, especially this year, where even if these guys

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Speaker 1: ultimately fizzle out, these these backup quarterbacks can have can

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Speaker 1: put together a you know, two, three, four game stretch.

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Speaker 1: You know, we saw Josh Dobbs do it, even DeVito,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of come alive a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And then also guys are just improving, like we've seen

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love, you know, really start to improve. So definitely

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Speaker 1: a guy to monitor. And who knows, I mean he

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Speaker 1: could you know, the Bengals aren't you know there, they're

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Speaker 1: matchups down the stretch. You know, they have to win

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Speaker 1: every game, so they're gonna be fire and they're not

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Speaker 1: gonna just kind of come out and and bullshit and

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Speaker 1: you know, trying to run the ball like they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to play to win. From here on out, everything's

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Speaker 1: almost win for them, so you know, maybe this is

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Speaker 1: a league who knows, but definitely have to monitor him.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, if the you're on the if you if

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Speaker 1: you need a streamer, not the worst option, but who

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Speaker 1: you want.

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Speaker 2: Unfortunately it's c J. Stroud. You know, he's my QB

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Speaker 2: thirteen open the week. This is just a tough matchup

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Speaker 2: against the Jets. And to make matters worse, you know

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Speaker 2: our boy Tank Dell just kind of devastating, likely season ending. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: poor went out for Tank Dell. He also might be

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Speaker 2: without Dalton Schultzkin will have to wait and see on that.

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Speaker 2: So it's a game where you know, the Texans might

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Speaker 2: not have to put up many points either to win

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Speaker 2: this game that they can lean on the run game.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is looking a lot better. This is another

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Speaker 2: game where there could be some potential ugly weather. So

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Speaker 2: he opens up my week, is my QB thirteen, So

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Speaker 2: he's on the sit start fringe. Obviously, if you have him,

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Speaker 2: you're probably gonna play him because watch, he'll still end

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Speaker 2: up with three hundred yards and four touchdowns somehow because

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Speaker 2: he's so frickin good. But just at least the underlying factors,

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Speaker 2: it's not looking good from the open the week. So

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Speaker 2: that's why I'm just a have lower on him than

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Speaker 2: usual here.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, definitely, I think that's that's perfectly warranted here

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Speaker 1: against a good Jet defense, and you know, Tank Dell

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Speaker 1: is the kind of ripple effect of that. You know,

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Speaker 1: we'll have to see because some of his lowest yardage

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Speaker 1: games have been the ones Tank Dell has missed this year.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's it could definitely be an issue because

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Speaker 1: now the defense gets to put, you know, pay more

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Speaker 1: attention to Nico Collins, and with Dalton Schultz out, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's you can kind of load up on Nico Collins

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Speaker 1: and you could even start paying some attention to Noah

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Speaker 1: Brown and now you're leaving it up like Robert Woods

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Speaker 1: and uh John Metchi who don't you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if they're obviously not at the same level. No

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Speaker 1: one really was as Dell except when Nico is kind

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Speaker 1: of there too. But yeah, so this could this could

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Speaker 1: really kind of knock down his numbers a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure like they can. This is a winnable game

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Speaker 1: for them, but yeah, I don't know if he has

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Speaker 1: to put up his usual now three hundred to do it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm right there with you. I am low on

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff this week. He's my QB sixteen, he's the

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Speaker 1: QB twelve in consensus. And another guy who you know

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Speaker 1: most weeks, he's kind of a he's a guy you're

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Speaker 1: not really thinking too hard about starting. You know, good

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Speaker 1: Detroit offense usually playing indoors, but this week you're playing

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Speaker 1: outdoors in a division game, so you have to be

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Speaker 1: you have to temper expectations a little. This year GoF

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Speaker 1: eight point one yards an attempt indoor six point nine

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Speaker 1: outdoor two point three total touchdowns per game indoors, just

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Speaker 1: one total touchdown per game outdoors. And for his career

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Speaker 1: we've seen the same thing you know with Detroit, you know,

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Speaker 1: dating back to twenty twenty one, indoors sixty eight percent

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Speaker 1: completion percentage outdoor sixty four indoors, seven point four yards

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Speaker 1: in attempt indoor six point nine. So he loses a

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Speaker 1: half a yard per attempt when he goes outdoors. And

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Speaker 1: then it's touchdown rate here he gets cut in half

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Speaker 1: five point three percent indoors two point eight percent outdoors.

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Speaker 1: And this is you know, a two over two and

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Speaker 1: a half year sample here, So it's a pretty large sample,

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Speaker 1: and you could go back and look at his RAMS

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Speaker 1: numbers and it's the same story. But you know, also

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Speaker 1: worth noting that this total of forty one for the

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Speaker 1: Lions in this Bears game, that's the lowest of the

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Speaker 1: year for Detroit. So right now we're seeing it just

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Speaker 1: under a forty percent chance of reigning. The forecast wins

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Speaker 1: around twenty miles per hour, just not ideal passing conditions.

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Speaker 1: And again, this is kind of the story around a

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Speaker 1: lot of the outdoor games this week throughout the league.

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Speaker 1: So but Goff seems to get affected more than most quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: And you also have you know, division game sort of

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Speaker 1: Bears held the Vikings to what was it ten points

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, that their defense playing a

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Speaker 1: little better, especially with Montes sweat. So Jared Goff on

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Speaker 1: that on that kind of fringe for me this week

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Speaker 1: deep deeper league start only.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I have my QB eighteen. I'm even lower

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Speaker 2: than you. But yeah, I'm already factoring that weather and

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Speaker 2: like you said, the low team total, that'll do it

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Speaker 2: for someone like Gough.

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Speaker 1: All right for the prop uh, I went I went

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Speaker 1: to an O last week. You went one in one.

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Speaker 1: Let's go, Let's go, c J. Stroud. I think this

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Speaker 1: is a very interesting one because not only do you

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Speaker 1: have a very strong Jets pass defense, not only do

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Speaker 1: you have potential inclement weather it met like stadium, but

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Speaker 1: you also, as we just talked about, you have no

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Speaker 1: tank Dell and you may be missing your tight end

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Speaker 1: as well. So Stroud, I think he's gonna have gone

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Speaker 1: the whole year now, We're really never having his top

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Speaker 1: four receivers healthy at the same time, Yeah, brutal so

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Speaker 1: passing yards against the Jets. I'm gonna go with two

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Speaker 1: hundred forty four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Ooh, a little bit higher than me. Initially I had

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Speaker 2: like two forty, but factory in the weather and stuff,

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Speaker 2: I went to thirty two and a half. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna have to go under.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll have it in the high two forties.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, feating CJ. Strade this year has not been

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Speaker 2: a profitable endeavor, so I'm really going against that here.

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Speaker 2: But all the factors lead to him not having a

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Speaker 2: throw as much here, so I'll take the under battle

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Speaker 2: like it.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder. The Action Network podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go to running back? Who got in top five?

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Speaker 2: All right, let's see I got Christian McCaffrey, No surprise there,

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Speaker 2: then Zach Moss, Devon ah Chan, Alvin Kamara, and Josh Jacobs.

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Speaker 1: I got a McCaffrey, Moss, Kamara, Ekwer jacobs A. Chan

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Speaker 1: has been a tough one to project because he had

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Speaker 1: I think like five touches in the first half of

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Speaker 1: that of that game against Washington and then got like

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Speaker 1: all the touches in the second half, but they were

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Speaker 1: up twenty four, so you know, I don't know. I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of projecting a fifty to fifty split until maybe

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Speaker 1: dig in and see if there's any way to project it. Better.

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Speaker 1: But it's really tough with him. But I initially did

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Speaker 1: have him third when I just used his straight up

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Speaker 1: usage from last week, but then I knocked it down

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Speaker 1: a little just because he really didn't play as much

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Speaker 1: in the first half. But yeah, failure. I mean he

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Speaker 1: could n a chan with ten touches, could could be

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Speaker 1: the RB one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a tough matchup against the Titans.

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Speaker 1: But no, jeff Simmons, No, Jeffer Simmons.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, I mean that's massive, that's massive, and

289
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Speaker 2: either way, you know, an explosive run for him can

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Speaker 2: make up for that. For The selling point for me

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Speaker 2: was just his receiving usage. I always thought of him

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Speaker 2: as like a pass catching back. So sixty four percent

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Speaker 2: rounds run rate, that's that's why I think he's so high.

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Speaker 2: For me, I do agree, I think it's more of

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Speaker 2: a fifty to fifty split on early downs. But man,

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Speaker 2: his efficiency, his underlying efficiency, it is too good right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll probably end up back with him in my

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Speaker 1: top five because it's just it's just fun and like

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Speaker 1: he's a guy, he's hard. It's hard for him to disappoint.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, join me. The water is warm over here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I literally had him number three, and then

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Speaker 1: I was like, oh no, that's because I kind I

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Speaker 1: kind of when I start my process, you know, for

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Speaker 1: everyone else did that, you know, I kind of for

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Speaker 1: for a guy who I just returned, like, h yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's been out a few weeks. He kind of just okay,

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Speaker 1: let's see what they did last week, kind of used

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Speaker 1: that as the baseline, and yeah, he was my RB three,

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Speaker 1: And then I started looking into, you know, the splits,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, oh, man, well he only had

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Speaker 1: five nine scrimmage yards at the half one five touches

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Speaker 1: or something.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, actually should be fair. I'll probably be closer to

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Speaker 2: you or like, we'll probably meet in the middle, because,

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Speaker 2: like I said, I just like to let it ride

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday morning. That's how we get like Rimandre Stevenson

317
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Speaker 2: RB one, although I think I left it there last year,

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Speaker 2: but I like that fun with it, and yeah, I'll

319
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,360
Speaker 2: probably tone it down a little bit because I didn't

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Speaker 2: realize he didn't see as much work in the first half.

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Speaker 2: But either way, love him this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not like I'm okay too far, not too far? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: who are you high on?

324
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Speaker 2: Joe Mixon? Just because I want to talk about him.

325
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Speaker 2: He's my RB twelve, and he's had some concerning usage

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Speaker 2: over the past few weeks, which is it's not ideal

327
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Speaker 2: considering he's not efficient enough to ford any sort of

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Speaker 2: running back by committee here. So you know, last night

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Speaker 2: I'm on a football we saw Chase brown eat into

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Speaker 2: his early down work and look really good doing it.

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Speaker 2: I thought he was kind of a sneaky rookie back

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Speaker 2: this year, hasn't seen much work, look really good doing it.

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Speaker 2: Nine carries sixty one yards, so he could you know,

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Speaker 2: continue to eat into that usage. But Mixing still had

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Speaker 2: a really good game on the ground Nineteen carries for

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Speaker 2: sixty eight yards, two touchdowns. He's still you know, the

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Speaker 2: goal line back, and just with Jake Browning playing at

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Speaker 2: a high level, you know, we're both high on him

339
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Speaker 2: this week. If he can keep that up, that's going

340
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Speaker 2: to allow Mixing to thrive, as if you know, Joe

341
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Speaker 2: Burrow is still under center, and you know, Trevion Williams

342
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Speaker 2: had been eating into his you know, passing down usage recently,

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Speaker 2: but last night Mixon had a season high route participation

344
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Speaker 2: and went off for six catches forty nine yards. Jags

345
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,360
Speaker 2: play a ton of zone and that's where Mixing thrives

346
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Speaker 2: as a pass catcher, and now he's facing a colts

347
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Speaker 2: team that plays on at the highest rate in the league.

348
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Speaker 2: So I think he'll get there with receiving usage. He'll

349
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Speaker 2: still see plenty of work on the ground, including goal

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Speaker 2: line carries. So even if this trend of Chase Brown

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Speaker 2: seeing more touches on early downs continues, I think Mexican

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Speaker 2: will still be you know, a low end RB one

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Speaker 2: this week. So it's been very conflicting thoughts and you know,

354
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Speaker 2: things to look at with Mixing, but as of now,

355
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Speaker 2: I think we could trust them as a low end

356
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Speaker 2: RB one here. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think what happened was you saw a kind of

358
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Speaker 1: shifting of the rolls last on Monday Night. It used

359
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Speaker 1: to be, you know, Mixing was getting you know, most

360
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Speaker 1: of the early down work and then they would try

361
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Speaker 1: to find someone to moonlight on third downs, kind of

362
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Speaker 1: like p Ryan during that Super Bowl year where p

363
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Speaker 1: RN wasn't playing a ton most weeks, but he was

364
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Speaker 1: coming in on a lot of passing downs. But then

365
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Speaker 1: now it looks like they switched it up a little

366
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Speaker 1: bit and they said, okay, let's let's kind of rest

367
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Speaker 1: give Mixing his rest on early downs and it was

368
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Speaker 1: like a two to one split mixing the Brown on

369
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Speaker 1: early downs. But then as you mentioned, uh, mixing getting

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Speaker 1: pretty much all the passing down work. Uh because in

371
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 1: Travon william of demoted to third string, and you know,

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Speaker 1: I guess they don't really trust Brown in the passing

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Speaker 1: game as much. So as long as that continues, which

374
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Speaker 1: it probably will because Brown showed well in the run game,

375
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 1: I think that'll continue. I think you'll see mixing his

376
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Speaker 1: carrier share take a little bit of a hit, But

377
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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, I think his route participation will be

378
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,959
Speaker 1: you know, in the you know, sixty five to seventy

379
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 1: five percent range, whereas for the season it's been in

380
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Speaker 1: that more like fifty fifty to sixty percent range. So yeah,

381
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Speaker 1: I think I mean that that's because they Taylor did

382
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Speaker 1: mention they want to kind of figure out how to

383
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Speaker 1: get the run game going, and Brown did help in

384
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Speaker 1: that in that aspect. H Yeah, I would expect kind

385
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,119
Speaker 1: of this is a situation where I would kind of

386
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 1: expect similar you know, usage to last week, like to

387
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 1: the to just the last week versus the entire season.

388
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: I think we said the switch switching of the guard.

389
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Speaker 2: Yeah, looking at my rookie notes, I had my comp

390
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 2: for Chase Brown a beefed up Philip Lindsay. So that's

391
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:57,400
Speaker 2: that's how I think about it him. I think he's

392
00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 2: got some pop and he's pretty big, two hundred FO

393
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 2: team pound back, so it's got some explosiveness. So I

394
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,400
Speaker 2: wasn't shocked to see him thrive when he finally got

395
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 2: a shot last night.

396
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was it was a I mean with the

397
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 1: Bengals offense did that. JAG's defense was number one in

398
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 1: DVLA against the run, coming in top five in defense overall,

399
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 1: and I mean the Bangs made him on the air

400
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 1: in the ground answer of the year.

401
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, with a back, solid coaching plan, like just all

402
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 2: around great, great game plan by Bengals.

403
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think Zach Taylor was previously. I think

404
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 1: it was like four and twenty on the road without

405
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 1: Burrow or something, or four and twenty straight up overall

406
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 1: without Burrow or something. So yeah, it was just everything

407
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 1: you expect just did not happen. But no promising for

408
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:50,199
Speaker 1: the Bengals. I'm high on Ezekiel Elliott. It sounds disgusting,

409
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 1: but he's the RB twenty nine consensus he's my RB seventeen,

410
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 1: and he might actually get a little higher if you know,

411
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,239
Speaker 1: right now, he's still he's been limited in practice, so

412
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 1: I usually doca just a couple of percent of efficiency

413
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 1: when when a guy is limited and you know, doesn't

414
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 1: get upgraded to foe with. So we'll see recording this Tuesday.

415
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 1: They got a couple more practices before the Thursday night game.

416
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: But Ermandre Stevenson is almost certain to miss here, and

417
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: Zeke played seventy percent of the snaps in that last

418
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,880
Speaker 1: game against the Chargers, ninety four percent of the non

419
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: Stevenson snaps, So I think it was I think Thy Montgomery,

420
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: who's been playing mostly receiver, played three snaps of running

421
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 1: back and that was it. Zeke had forty odd snaps.

422
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 1: Beyond that, he had twenty one touches. And I do

423
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 1: expect Jamichael Hasty to be active in this game, you know,

424
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: So right now, I'm projecting Zeke to play to kind

425
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 1: of seed the third down passing game work to some

426
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: combination of Montgomery and Hasty, but I still expect Zeke

427
00:21:55,800 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 1: to get almost all of the early down carries. So

428
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 1: I'm still projecting Zeke for you know, above fifteen touches

429
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: in this game. Pittsburgh has been somewhat of a run

430
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: funnel defense fifteenth in DV away against the run, but

431
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 1: six against the pass. And with this Patriot team, we've

432
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: seen it with Remandre and we saw it with Zeke

433
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 1: even in against the Charger they scored no points, but

434
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: Zeke's had what was it seventeen carries and then he

435
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 1: also caught four balls for forty yards. So the Patriots

436
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,679
Speaker 1: there was Olders, like most of the receivers are banged up.

437
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: I think Parker was limited in practice, Junius Smith, Schuster

438
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 1: got a knee injury, pot Douglas still is in. Yeah,

439
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:49,400
Speaker 1: boute Kashan, butte is uh, he was hurt this last game.

440
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 1: Taekwon Thornton is like on a milk cart, and even

441
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: though he's on the field, it's rough. It's rough.

442
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 2: But what happened with Mike, I mean not that it matters.

443
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 1: They've like they've dialed his rollback because Farrell Brown is

444
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 1: a better run blocker, and again they just need to

445
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: run their offense through running backs at this point, they

446
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 1: have no choice. So yeah, you know, Gsecki's not really

447
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: seeing the field as much because we know, as you

448
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: pointed out, I think heading into what was it last

449
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 1: year when people were still pretty high on him, this

450
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 1: dude can't run block and so you know eventually he's

451
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: gonna get taken off the field. And we saw this

452
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: with John hu Smith too. Where and I'm not saying

453
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,479
Speaker 1: John Smith is a anywhere is near his batter run

454
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 1: blocker as Gooseki, But this Patriot team is like they

455
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 1: signed these guys a free agency who are athletic, you know,

456
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: pass catching tight ends, and then they remember that they

457
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 1: have no passer and they like, I guess I gotta

458
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 1: bench him. So but yeah, but that, yeah, like that

459
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: just we digress. But yeah, Zeke Elliott, I think he's

460
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: gonna get a ton of volume. There's a chance he

461
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: sees ninety of the non Stevenson snaps Again, I mean

462
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,719
Speaker 1: the fact that they acquired Hasty and then healthy scratched

463
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: him like what two or three weeks in a row.

464
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 1: And Montgomery is technically a running back, but they have

465
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 1: him playing receiver the whole year until now. So there's

466
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: a chance you could get like one hundred, like a

467
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 1: ninety to one hundred percent snap three for is he

468
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: elliot in a game where they should be able to

469
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: use a running back. I mean the total of thirty thirty.

470
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 1: This is like having pert in this year. Like I

471
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: don't remember ever seeing like multiple games below thirty seven

472
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 1: even and now we've gotten you know, we're going below

473
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 1: thirty four for a lot of these last few bad quarterbacks. Yeah,

474
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks.

475
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 2: And yeah, yeah, he doesn't have much touch on equity here,

476
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 2: but volume is king it running back. So he's a

477
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 2: low end RB two. He's dollar store Zach Moss, That's

478
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: who he is. Yeah, and he's going to see every touch,

479
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 2: well maybe not every.

480
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 1: And then the Patriots. I have the Patriots projected for

481
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 1: like what a half a touchdown or one touchdown for

482
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: like they're twelve points that I'm pretty that's he's projected

483
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 1: to get like half of that.

484
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah if they if they somehow end up in

485
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 2: a goaling situation, which is a big if he's getting

486
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 2: the touch there.

487
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I mean, don't under have to make Pittsburgh

488
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,159
Speaker 1: just screwing up royally true, like this is what they do.

489
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: So last week against Arizona, they it's what Pittsburgh does.

490
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 1: They win the games. They they win the games are

491
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: supposed to lose, and they lose the games they're supposed to.

492
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 1: But yeah, Zeke Elliott RB two for me this week,

493
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be scared to uh to go there, even

494
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: though it's got kind of hold your nose play who

495
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 1: you want?

496
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: Travis Etn. You know, he's my RB twenty five ECR

497
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 2: has RB six. We have to not we can't. We

498
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 2: can't view him as high end RB one right now

499
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 2: because you know, obviously the Jags pass catchers all take

500
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 2: a massive hit with Lawrence missing time, but Etn as well.

501
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 2: I mean, he needs the Jags offense to be good,

502
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 2: get them in scoring position to prevent the deference from

503
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 2: stacking the bucks. So he has a lot of things

504
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:06,239
Speaker 2: going against him.

505
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: Uh.

506
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 2: Plus, you know, after seeing just that massive workload weeks

507
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 2: one through five, I think he led the NFL in touches.

508
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 2: They've really tried to ease him up a little bit

509
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 2: because his efficiency has taken a big hit. He's only

510
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 2: averaging three point three yards a carry since then, and

511
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: he's been banged up. You know, he's dealing with injuries

512
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 2: and things like that. So I just view him as

513
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 2: a low end RB two here. It's a brutal matchup

514
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: against you know, the Browns. So yeah, we really have

515
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 2: to downgrade Etn. Obviously you're probably still playing him, but

516
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: we really have to lower expectations for him going forward

517
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 2: and especially this week against the Browns.

518
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, you know. It's also don't forget that the

519
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 1: guy he's been seating touches to is de Ernest Johnson.

520
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 1: Who oh boy, I think you're going around hashtag revenge game.

521
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 1: It's about to get popping tank bigs B Sorry, bro,

522
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened to you. You shouldn't have

523
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: fumbled on that in week one or whatever.

524
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 2: For him.

525
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 1: But since this is a projection pod, we let's talk

526
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 1: some about projection logic real quick. Uh So, when you

527
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: when there's like the first game of a backup quarterback

528
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 1: for a team like the Jaguars, who I have you

529
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 1: know you I think we kind of project simh you know,

530
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 1: kind of look at past rate over expected. The Jaguars

531
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 1: are pretty close to weak average, maybe like a percent

532
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: or two above. Like is there like how are you

533
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: adjusting their pass rate for the backup quarterback? Like you

534
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 1: do you just leave it at the team level or

535
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: do you like knock it down at all? Do you

536
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: like past date or what what do you do there?

537
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, no, I'm absolutely adjusting it. I think that

538
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 2: in a neutral game script, they're definitely gonna want to

539
00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 2: be more run heavy now, and we're assuming it Cgthord right,

540
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 2: there's a chance yep, Nathan Rourke could start though. I

541
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 2: don't know, but either way, the Jags will definitely want

542
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 2: to be more run heavy, but it's more likely that

543
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 2: they do get into a trailing script. Now, you know

544
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 2: the Browns, who knows they're but the fact that what

545
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: are they right now? Three point dogs?

546
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: You know, it's like that's what I'm That's why I'm

547
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 1: asking because you don't as you know there it's like

548
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: one and a half. It's it's uh oh, it's it's yeah.

549
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 1: It's because you know, you're you're you're talking about backup

550
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: quarterbacks on both sides. Yeah, but that's why I asked,

551
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: because I mean it's still projected to be a fairly

552
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: neutral game script. So the question is how much do

553
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: you adjust Bethards, you know, like their pathwate over expected

554
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 1: with Bethard versus Lawrence. I have it. I have it

555
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 1: just like like around week average, whereas like there were

556
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: like a couple of points above with with with Lawrence.

557
00:28:56,440 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 2: But I was just curious because yeah, yeah, they're going

558
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: to be below average and pass right, but again that's

559
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: in a neutral game script. So yeah, this week, maybe

560
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 2: it is a neutral game script and that will help ETN.

561
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 2: I think that if there is more volume, they're probably

562
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: gonna give Dearness Johnson a little bit more work. I

563
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 2: think they really are trying to limit ETN where they can.

564
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 2: So I still to get ahead of myself. This is

565
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 2: my prop ETN total rushing and receiving arts, So I

566
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: don't want to, you know, say where I'm at necessarily yea,

567
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 2: but but you know, I do think he will see

568
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 2: plenty of volume on the ground. Maybe he'll see you know,

569
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 2: more dump offs like so he could see more passing

570
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 2: work here. But the Jaguars team total right now is

571
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half. So it's for me, it's the

572
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 2: touchdown upside taking a hit. That's probably the biggest blow

573
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: to ETN, who seemed, you know, a ton of like

574
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 2: short yard touchdowns this year, So that's his biggest hit

575
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 2: when it comes to fantasy. But who knows, maybe I'm

576
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: higher on you when it comes to yardage. So let's

577
00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 2: go with Travis Etn's total rushing and receiving art tier.

578
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: Wait right, wait, we gotta get my guy.

579
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 2: I'm one one. First, I didn't know. I didn't know

580
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 2: if you wanted to bang it out here.

581
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I won't keep it to you. Just this for okay,

582
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: just to keep consistent, but real quick, Uh, we'll get

583
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: back to Etn. James Cook for me, he is the

584
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: RB nineteen in consensus, he's my RB thirty one. And

585
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 1: this is simply uh, you know, kind of adjusting to

586
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 1: you know, the new information with the new coordinator in

587
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 1: a situation where the raw stats don't tell the story,

588
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: but the percentage rate stats of how much of the

589
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 1: of his usage do. So, you know, James Cook in

590
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 1: terms of his you know, volume, he's been fine the

591
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, uh, you know, with the you know,

592
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: with Ken Dorsey fired because the Bills have been running

593
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: a lot of plays. He had you know, twenty touches

594
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: in back to back weeks. So it looks like, if anything,

595
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,239
Speaker 1: he's on the rise, right, But when you look at

596
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: his underlying usage with Ken Dorsey, fifty five percent snap rate,

597
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the backfield carries without Dorsey his

598
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: snap rate drops from fifty five to forty five percent,

599
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 1: his percentage of the carries drops from sixty two to

600
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: fifty four, and his route participation rate with Dorsey forty

601
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 1: nine percent without thirty four percent. So you know what

602
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: did the Bills were on like ninety plays against Philadelphia

603
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: before that buy, and then you know they were they

604
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: were possessing the ball against the Jets as well, because

605
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: you know it's the Jets, and the Jets can't you know,

606
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: the Jets really can't hold the ball, so they only

607
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: have the ball for twenty three minutes. The Bills had

608
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: the ball for close to thirty seven minutes. So you're

609
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: seeing you saw a lot of plays and back to

610
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: back weeks. Now you're playing a Kansas City Chiefs team

611
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: that you know, not only do they have an offense

612
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 1: that in theory could hold the one, probably you know

613
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: will more than usual because they're not really getting the

614
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: explosive plays this year at Kansas City, and they did.

615
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: It's also very good, so it's it could you know,

616
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: if you see the Bills run closer, you know, sixty

617
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: plays instead of whatever like eighty ninety, you're gonna see

618
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: a detreatse and volume for Cook, and you know, I

619
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: think some of the reason that his snap rate was

620
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: well was because there were so many plays you don't

621
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: want to tire the guy out and overwork them. But

622
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 1: this was kind of a trend, you know, for a

623
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: while now we saw Cook not really being treated as

624
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: a true lead back, just more of like a like

625
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: a one A to a Tavis Murray's one B. And

626
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: then with once Dorsey was fired, they started mixing in

627
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: Ty Johnson a lot more. So now you're talking about

628
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 1: a three way running back committee. So I think Cook

629
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: is really risky, especially as a road underdog. I know

630
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: it's a small spread, but as a road underdog against

631
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 1: Kansas City, with Buffalo having a team total of just

632
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: twenty two and a half, which is pretty low for

633
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City face by two and a

634
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: half to total forty seven and a half. So it's, uh, yeah,

635
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: it's it's one of those things where I think you

636
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 1: really have to temper expectations if you, you know, if

637
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: you if he's if you're in a twelve team where

638
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: you're probably still starting him as a flex. But I

639
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: don't think he's an RB two this week. And that's

640
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: that's where the market is ranking him.

641
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, For some reason, I thought Ty Johnson had

642
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 2: way more playing time. He only played twelve percent of

643
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: the snaps, but it was like they always put him

644
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 2: in there in the high leverage situations. I think it

645
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 2: was like third and one, they gave him the ball.

646
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 2: So they obviously trust him. And there's a chance, right

647
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: that Leonard Fournette gets elevated at some point, so that

648
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 2: that would be interesting to see how they would use him.

649
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: But either way, it looks like they don't want James

650
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 2: Cook to be a workhorse back.

651
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And it's it's you know, he's still can

652
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 1: it's not going to necessarily like the upside is still

653
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: there because he's he is an explosive back. But you're

654
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: talking about floor and a lot, you know. I know

655
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: it's you know, getting close to the playoff time. You know,

656
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: I think these last you know, these next couple of

657
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: weeks are going to side amount of things. So James

658
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: Cook's floor, I think is not being accounted for in

659
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: the ranking. That that's kind of what I'm getting at.

660
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 1: But let's go, what do you got for me for ETN.

661
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 2: Well, I've had some time to think about it a

662
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: little bit more. My final Yeah, let's go at this.

663
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 2: My final prop for you is seventy eight and a

664
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 2: half rushing and receiving yards.

665
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 1: That I mean, that sounds high. That's good, that's actually good.

666
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: I'm okay, I'm pretty close average, but my median, my A,

667
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: that's kind of where my average is. But the median

668
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: would knock it down a couple of yards, So I'll

669
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 1: go to the median.

670
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 2: For like a combined rushing and receiving, it's probably gonna

671
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 2: be closer or mean, because it allows for an explosive

672
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 2: play and either the runner pass game, So it's probably closer.

673
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 2: Just whatever your rush and receiving projections add up to.

674
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 1: I mean, if it's still.

675
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 2: Low, because I'm a, what did you have?

676
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 1: I'm at seventy seven, so you're still going under. But

677
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 1: that is a good line. But you know, I do

678
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 1: have him still projected for like, I'm using kind of

679
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: a mix of his season long and you know, since

680
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 1: to buy where his carries have gotten way down carries

681
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 1: that is, so I might have to adjust that down

682
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: a little more because now we have four games where

683
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 1: he's really he hasn't he's four games straight he's been

684
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 1: under his season average of backfield the season, he's at

685
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 1: seventy two percent, but since to buy sixty seventy one

686
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: percent and fifty eight. So when you have like four

687
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 1: straight you have to kind of adjust the underlying you know,

688
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: prior baseline, whatever you want to call it. So, yeah,

689
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 1: either way, I'll go under. I mean, wouldn't be surprise.

690
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 1: I mean Cleveland's defense has been in shambles, uh at times.

691
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 1: You know, for such a good defense, they'll have these

692
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: just games where they just melt down and give up

693
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 1: big plays. So again, I think you're on the right

694
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: track with being low on him, and I think but

695
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 1: I think, just like with Cook, it's the floor that's

696
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 1: not being accounted for with a guy like Etn because

697
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 1: with the you know, if he's not playing his higher

698
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 1: percentage of the snaps, obviously he's still capable of busting

699
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,760
Speaker 1: off an exposive play scoring touchdowns. But he's also capable

700
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,760
Speaker 1: of you know, like fourteen touches for fifty two yards

701
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: and no scores.

702
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and no scores. Right, he's been banking on touchdowns

703
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: this year.

704
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, let's go to wide receiver Top five for

705
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 1: Week fourteen.

706
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: Who you got h Tyree Kill and Ceedee Lamb just

707
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:39,479
Speaker 2: right behind him. Then Michael Pittman, Keenan Allen and A. J. Brown.

708
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: Oh, Michael Pittman, I like it.

709
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 2: I like that. Where do you got?

710
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 1: Like I'm always I'm always in. I've been in a

711
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 1: top ten on Mike for a while, but I don't

712
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: have them to five yet, ten, ten. But that's also

713
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,479
Speaker 1: because just a little bit of like I said, weather

714
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: concerns in this one as well.

715
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, that that's really at some point as

716
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 2: receiving prop past to be like eight and a half.

717
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 2: I think it was Keenan Allen's receptions prop was eight

718
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: and a half. I think Pittman's was seven and a half.

719
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: But I'm projecting him right around there, right around eight receptions,

720
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 2: which is a lot.

721
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I'm a little bit lower this week. Like

722
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 1: this week I'm at seven to three. Uh dug into

723
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: why because I'm usually I'm usually round around seven and

724
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: a half eight. Because we've been talking about this every week.

725
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 1: I think I had him in our lineup last week

726
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: and the DFS line we built. He's been he's had

727
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: so many you know, seven eight catch games, it's kind

728
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: of flying under the radar a little bit. But yeah, uh,

729
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: it's my wide receiver ten this week. But love Love

730
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 1: the spicy Wui receiver three. I have tyreeq Ceedee, lamb

731
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, the Fawn Diggs. I'm surprised you say you

732
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: had dig five.

733
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,439
Speaker 2: No, no, no, I haven't had digs five for three weeks. Now, Okay,

734
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 2: it broke. It broke my streak of like twenty seven

735
00:37:58,600 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 2: weeks in a row.

736
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 1: I'm back. And then I got a Manra number five.

737
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 1: And then there was somebody at six who is like

738
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 1: right there. It was it aj AJ's right there and

739
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 1: Jefferson's right there too. But for now you're still going

740
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: with with a Manra. But you know aj Aj is

741
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 1: the Dallas defenses is tough, and then Jefferson, it's just

742
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 1: tough to project him with Dobbs. You know, it's obviously

743
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 1: not gonna be as good as cousins. So it's it's, it's,

744
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: it's it's a little bit fluid right now. But yeah,

745
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,240
Speaker 1: I have digs for Saint Brown five who.

746
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 2: You hire Jackson Smith Njigba against the Niners. He's my

747
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:46,879
Speaker 2: wide receiver thirty six. And you know Debo in this game.

748
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 2: I'm high on too, but everybody is already playing him

749
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: because it's just a phenomenal matchup for him. But you know,

750
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 2: I think this is also a great spot for js N.

751
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,879
Speaker 2: You know, he's been trending up since Sattle's Week five

752
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: by not only is a rookie, and you know he's

753
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 2: gonna get better after the buye heat. He fractured his

754
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 2: risk right before week one, so I don't think he

755
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 2: was healthy at the beginning of the season. You know,

756
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 2: he's been trending up. So last week he caught seven

757
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 2: balls for sixty two yards. He had that potential touchdown

758
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: right that I thought he caught it anyways, Yeah, you

759
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 2: know it was out of it. Yeah, like he should

760
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 2: have had a massive game. I thought that the great

761
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 2: you can use the ground to catch the ball. Anyways.

762
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 2: You know, he also tends to be better in trailing

763
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: game scripts or he gets more playing time because the

764
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 2: Seahawks used more Aleve personnel when they're trailing. So they're

765
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 2: fourteen point do at least, I think they're fourteen point

766
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: dogs here against the Niners. So he's probably gonna see

767
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 2: you know, close to eighty percent route participation and San Francisco.

768
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 2: You know, they have a good defense, but they do

769
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 2: give up you know, passing yards in garbage time when

770
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 2: they're were up a couple scores and they rate twenty

771
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 2: first and DVO against number three receivers. He has the

772
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 2: better matchup in the slot against Lenora, so he will

773
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: offer you know, wide receiver two upside as long as

774
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 2: you know Lockett and Metcalf are you know, healthy. But

775
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 2: I think this week I think he offers you know,

776
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 2: sneaky low end wide receiver three flex sort of upside,

777
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 2: just based on the potential trailing game script. And you know,

778
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 2: he was the top wide receiver draft and what's turned

779
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 2: out to be just an amazing class. So I just

780
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: think he's only gonna get better. I just think this

781
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 2: is one of those weeks where even though thirty teams

782
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 2: are playing this week, I think we can trust him inside,

783
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 2: you know, close to the top thirty five this week.

784
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm You're definitely higher than me.

785
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 2: I have him.

786
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 1: I'm more in line with consensus. He's forty five in consensus.

787
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,479
Speaker 1: I have him forty three, So I am a little higher.

788
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 1: But I was hiring him last week only because I

789
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 1: have noticed that he plays the best against man coverage teams,

790
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 1: and doubt you know, Dallas is the most like they

791
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 1: play the most man coverage. But I am still higher

792
00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,800
Speaker 1: on him. I think he's still I think he is

793
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 1: stilling And this is.

794
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. I think just worth noting that with all

795
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: the weather this week, this game looks like it does

796
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 2: have perfect weather in Santa Clara, So I think he'll

797
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 2: might he might move up your rankings just based on

798
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 2: the downward adjustments he'll probably making with all these receivers

799
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: and ship weather that this game does look like a

800
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 2: good weather game. Yep.

801
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 1: Sixty one degrees, partly cloudy, and only eight mile an

802
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 1: hour winds, so nothing to complain about fair. It's funny

803
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 1: because I think I looked earlier today and it was

804
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 1: they were saying it was like patchy fog or something.

805
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: But I guess that's out now, Like now it's saying

806
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 1: it's yeah, now it's saying it's gonna be part.

807
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think we could project fog seven

808
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 2: days fog in the forecast.

809
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 1: That's how I was scratching my head.

810
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 2: I was like.

811
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 1: It was in Seattle, yeah, yeah, and uh.

812
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 2: The Commander game, I think there was like pretty heavy

813
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 2: fog early in the game, unless I was like fireworks,

814
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 2: I don't know, but it was pretty foggy, like the

815
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 2: weather wasn't great there and it didn't matter. But yeah,

816
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:08,359
Speaker 2: San Francisco can be tricky with the fog, although it's

817
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 2: it's not even close to San Francisco. Santa Clair's like, yeah,

818
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: it's married exactly. Yeah.

819
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 1: So I got a couple of guys, and I think

820
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: the market is too low on Jamar Chase is the

821
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 1: wide receiver sixteen in ECR, and I do want to

822
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 1: talk about him because I you know, right now he's

823
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 1: being ranked below like Ico Collins going against the Jets,

824
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: which listen, I get it, you know, take gell Is out,

825
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 1: but you're talking about now you can pay you could

826
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: essentially treat him like a true like you could treat

827
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: Ggo Collins like Jamar Chase and you know, if you're

828
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:44,800
Speaker 1: the Jets, yeah you know so and just you know,

829
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 1: he's being ranked below some you know like DJ Moore

830
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: who think it's still a little bit more boom er

831
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 1: bust Alave. I think it's a little more boomer bust,

832
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 1: you know, even a guy like Waddle, who's you know,

833
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 1: in number two. So you know, I have Jamar Chase

834
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 1: still as a top ten wide receiver as a wide

835
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: receiver on this week, and I think, you know, maybe

836
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 1: the market will catch up after more people kind of

837
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: adjust for him going off on Monday Night football. But yes,

838
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 1: there's some weather in this game, but that's true of

839
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: you know, like I said, like half the league. But

840
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 1: he's averaging one hundred and fifteen yards on seven and

841
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 1: a half catches per game and the two Browning starts

842
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 1: nine targets death. He did have some deflections against Pittsburgh,

843
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,839
Speaker 1: but uh, you know, Browning seems capable of getting him

844
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: the ball. And I think we talked about this a

845
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,720
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. I'm like, hey, you know, I'm

846
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 1: not I'm not going too low on Chase because if

847
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: I'm the Bengals, what am I gonna do? I'm just

848
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: gonna I'm just gonna figure out ways to get this

849
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 1: dude to ball. And I think they're going to continue

850
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 1: to do that against you know, close defense that's not

851
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,439
Speaker 1: terrible but not great, and this could be a glow

852
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 1: scoring I mean, a close game that you know kind

853
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 1: of pressures the Brangos to continue to pass once again,

854
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: So I think I don't think we should like Chase

855
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: is not a top five guy right now. That's fair,

856
00:43:57,760 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 1: but I don't really think he should be going much

857
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 1: low than you know, ten or eleven at wide receiver.

858
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 1: And the other guy is Adam Thielen, and he's been quiet,

859
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 1: you know, a couple of weeks. Now I know Caroline

860
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 1: is a dumpster fire. He did cover, they did get.

861
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: The cover came through for us my first Carolina bet

862
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 1: of the year. They cashed my win total the week before.

863
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 1: I bet on him the next week and they covered.

864
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 1: So shout out to the Panthers. But the reason I

865
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 1: like dealing in this spot and I think, you know,

866
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 1: if you've been riding him and you might be able

867
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: to disconcerted and kind of knocking him out because I

868
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 1: see him at twenty nine and expert consensus, So that means,

869
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 1: you know, certain weeks, if you start two wide receivers

870
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 1: or even if you're just if your team is just stacked,

871
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 1: which if you're you know, heading to the playoffs, it

872
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: probably is, you might be thinking of benching him. I

873
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 1: think he's just solid play this week because New Orleans

874
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 1: play is the second most man coverage only behind Dallas,

875
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,800
Speaker 1: and that's been it's you would think it would be

876
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: the opposite, but Adam Thelens really struggled against his own coverage.

877
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,280
Speaker 1: And we've seen that with some of these aging wide receivers,

878
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 1: right like Alan Robinson had the same issue where he

879
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 1: was still beating man coverage but struggling to kind of

880
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: find the spots in the zones and things like that.

881
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,919
Speaker 1: And then this year one point two yards per route

882
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 1: against zone, two point four against man double. So a

883
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 1: team like New Orleans that plays the you know, second

884
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 1: most man in the league, you're gonna probably see a

885
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 1: more product, the more productive version of Adam deal when

886
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: he had seven catches, fifty four yards and a touchdown

887
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 1: in the first meeting. You also have the benefit, as

888
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 1: you mentioned, of an indoor game here switch you know,

889
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 1: there are gonna be a lot of wide receivers that

890
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 1: just kind of get knocked down due to this, due

891
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: to the weather and a lot of passing games. Whereas

892
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: I know this, there's it ain't much freaking Carolina, But

893
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 1: I don't think this is a week where we're expected

894
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 1: a floor game from THEA And I think this is

895
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 1: gonna this is one of this is one of his

896
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 1: better spots, uh you know, uh in terms of matchup

897
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 1: when he averages double his yards per route. So like

898
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 1: DeLand have him as wide receiver twenty one, so I

899
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 1: have him like firmly in that you know, bottom low

900
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 1: end wide receiver two range, where as a lot of

901
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: people are ranking him kind of more of a low

902
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 1: end wide receiver three.

903
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm closer to you. He's my wide receiver

904
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 2: twenty two. But if he struggles again this week week,

905
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: I would be concerned with him just sort of falling off.

906
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 2: And like I said at the beginning of year, I

907
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,919
Speaker 2: thought he'd be Bright Sung's top target in the first

908
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 2: half of the season and be Mingo in the second half.

909
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 2: I still think I'm going to be wrong on that prediction.

910
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 2: But the last two weeks Mingo he's been the top

911
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 2: target by a considerable amount. So hopefully for a feeling sake,

912
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 2: that changes soon because it's been a concerning trend. I mean,

913
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 2: he is older, right, he's like thirty three thirty four like,

914
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 2: so it's a concern this late in the season that

915
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 2: he's falling off. But I do think he'll bounce back here.

916
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 2: But if he doesn't, that's a concern.

917
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 1: Like, I think the next two matchups he should be

918
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: able to have success in at New Orleans and then

919
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:05,919
Speaker 1: home against Atlanta. But in week sixteen and seventeen, Green

920
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,759
Speaker 1: Bay and Jacksonville are are heavy, heavy zone teams, so

921
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 1: he might get you there. I don't know if he

922
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 1: takes you over the top, but.

923
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 2: Those are championship weeks there, Yeah, yeah, those are championship weeks.

924
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:21,879
Speaker 2: Maybe uh that high?

925
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, I think most trade deadlines are passed.

926
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, just kind of a you know, if looking ahead,

927
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 1: if he's your let's say your wide receiver two or three,

928
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:35,280
Speaker 1: and you can like kind of you know, plan ahead,

929
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 1: you know, maybe try to make sure you have at

930
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 1: least another option for those those two weeks. But I

931
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 1: do think the next two he should have his you know,

932
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,240
Speaker 1: usual high volume games.

933
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 2: All right.

934
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 1: Who won?

935
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 2: It's actually justin Jefferson, And that's just based on my

936
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 2: initial projection for this week. I'm wide receiver eighteen. WHOA,

937
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 2: I'll probably end up closer to you, But to start

938
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:02,720
Speaker 2: the week, I don't mind being low on him. Obviously,

939
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 2: if you have him, you know, welcome back. We're playing him,

940
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: but I think we should lower expectations because he is,

941
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 2: you know, returning from a handscring injury, so they might

942
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 2: be a little bit cautious with them. You know, there's

943
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:18,320
Speaker 2: always a risk for reaggravation. Handscreen injuries are always tricky.

944
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,439
Speaker 2: So and you know, Jordan Addison should command a higher

945
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 2: target rate this point in the season than when Jefferson

946
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 2: you know, was playing and TJ. Hawkinson still a target monster.

947
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:32,879
Speaker 2: Uh And you kind of alluded to it. But there's

948
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 2: gonna be less volume overall without Kirk Cousins. So this

949
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 2: is his first start without Kirk Cousins. And I guess

950
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 2: I'm assuming Josh Dobbs is the starting quarterback this week.

951
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 2: It's gonna you know, he scrambles more. It's gonna be

952
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 2: fewer pass attempts overall, so there's just less passing yards

953
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 2: to go around. There's still a bunch of mounts of

954
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,879
Speaker 2: the feed in this offense. So I look, I think

955
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,760
Speaker 2: he's probably one of the best receivers in the game still, obviously,

956
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 2: but I just feuw him as more of a solid

957
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 2: wide receiver two options this week and then maybe next

958
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 2: week back to you know, top five status. But I'm

959
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 2: just lower expectations a little bit this week.

960
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 1: That's all. Yeah, I do like when we do our

961
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 1: we do the flex you know, our fancy Flex pod

962
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: for the for week fourteen, will break down the main state.

963
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 1: Check that out over on the Fancy Flex channel. I'm

964
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:23,479
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna talk about him and Dobbs there because

965
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,320
Speaker 1: I do think I do think there's a way to

966
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:31,320
Speaker 1: kind of play him this week, and it's it's DFS related,

967
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 1: but yeah, it.

968
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 2: Does have a high ceiling. If that's your top receiver, yeah,

969
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 2: I won't be confused.

970
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:41,840
Speaker 1: But the floor is a little more questionable. Yeah, not

971
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 1: only because we don't know exactly where he is injury wise,

972
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: but also because now you're introducing a new quarterback to

973
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 1: the equation as well, in Joshua Dobbs, and I'll have

974
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,760
Speaker 1: I'll have some Viking, I'll have a kind of Jeff

975
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 1: Jefferson adjacent prop Before I get into that, I'm low

976
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: on Deontae Johnson. He is outside of my top forty.

977
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 1: This week against New England and the last four games

978
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,760
Speaker 1: before Matt Canada was fired, Johnson was in on ninety

979
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:20,759
Speaker 1: seven percent of the dropbacks, and since Canada has been

980
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 1: fired eighty five percent and seventy five percent and you know,

981
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 1: he has had some kind of weird moments I'll put

982
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 1: it that way over the last a couple of weeks

983
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 1: that maybe probably might have drawn the ear of his

984
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 1: coaching staff, and maybe that's why he got pulled a

985
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 1: little bit. But either way, I mean, he's kind of

986
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,360
Speaker 1: liable to do that. And now you're talking about a

987
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 1: total of thirty. You're a home favorite against the Patriots.

988
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,640
Speaker 1: So number one, you have a super low and plied

989
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 1: team total even though you're a favorite, it's eighteen. Number two,

990
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 1: you may be in a positive game script because the Patriots,

991
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 1: I mean, they just haven't been able to score on anybody.

992
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 1: And then number three, with Pat fryar Moof's back, it

993
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 1: kind of it's you know, it's really hard for it

994
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 1: was hard enough for this offense to support anyone from

995
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:10,400
Speaker 1: a fantasy perspective all year period. I mean, that's what

996
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: happens when you go, what three the whole presidential administration

997
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 1: without getting four hundred yards of total offense. But with

998
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,439
Speaker 1: Pat Fryarmof in the lineup this year, the game's Fried

999
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 1: mooth has been active. Deontay Johnson target rate per route

1000
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 1: is twenty one point seven percent with Friar Mooth out,

1001
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 1: it jumps to twenty six percent. So you know, Fried

1002
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 1: Mooth is healthy as far as we know, he's been playing.

1003
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: He's back in the lineup. So I think you have

1004
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:42,359
Speaker 1: to temper expectations for Johnson. Uh, there's he already has

1005
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 1: next to no touchdown equity, and you know, out of

1006
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 1: the odds of him scoring, you know, he technically should

1007
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 1: have had one two weeks ago, and then he had

1008
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 1: one last week. The odds of him scoring the third

1009
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:57,359
Speaker 1: time in a row, uh, pretty low here. And then

1010
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 1: there's just no other factor that really stands out. You know,

1011
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 1: the Patriots have been good, you know, womiting opponents, you know,

1012
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 1: top wide receivers really they're they're kind of funneling action

1013
00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 1: to you know, the non number one, number two wide receivers,

1014
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 1: things like that. So I just can't I can't get

1015
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 1: up to wide receivers thirty three for Deontay, which is

1016
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 1: where consensus has him. And you're also you know, Trubisky

1017
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 1: has looked worse than Picket this year. So yeah, just

1018
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 1: a lot of things working against Deontay Johnson here. So

1019
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 1: he's a guy that I if I didn't have to

1020
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 1: start him, I just think you're kind of you're kind

1021
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 1: of tempting fate here, and his yardage has been down

1022
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 1: over the last month or so, even though he has

1023
00:52:39,719 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 1: gotten in the end zone. So yeah, Deontay for me

1024
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 1: is outside my top forty. All right, let's go not

1025
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:49,399
Speaker 1: with Justin Jefferson this week. But I think the really

1026
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 1: interesting and just difficult decision is Jordan Addison because somebody

1027
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 1: has to kind of take a back seat. You know,

1028
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 1: even if jeff is not playing a full competent snaps

1029
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 1: or even if he's not one hundred like you know,

1030
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 1: this is not Kirk Cousins who was averaging what like

1031
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,680
Speaker 1: three hundred plus passing yard. This is Josh Dobbs. So

1032
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:13,759
Speaker 1: you know, maybe and he had maybe he has that

1033
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 1: upside with Jefferson back, but we can't. That's not the median.

1034
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 1: So curious as to what you're doing with Addison's median.

1035
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 1: Assuming Jefferson does suit up this week, I'll give you

1036
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: forty two and a half receiving yards.

1037
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 2: Oh nice, I have him projected for forty two. So

1038
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 2: I me today his medians like thirty seven and a half,

1039
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:37,440
Speaker 2: I would call it. So I hate I hate betting

1040
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 2: against them. So I'll go with under, but that is

1041
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:42,959
Speaker 2: I got you to take Addison under.

1042
00:53:43,640 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 1: No, I don't like it, get you to do that.

1043
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, like it's gonna be Brandon Powell. Well obviously

1044
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:53,359
Speaker 2: the biggest decrease in playing time. But yeah, it will

1045
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 2: be interesting to see if they have Addison lineup and

1046
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,839
Speaker 2: the two eyed formations. I don't think he did when

1047
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 2: Jefferson was was healthy, So maybe at this point in

1048
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:05,800
Speaker 2: his rookie season he may have leaked frog kg Osborne,

1049
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 2: but again, who knows. So I do agree I think

1050
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:10,320
Speaker 2: he has a low flour this week. You're probably not

1051
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 2: playing him. He's outside my top forty five. He would

1052
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 2: only be a bet on talent where he's found a

1053
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,800
Speaker 2: way to score touchdowns even when he had limited playing

1054
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: time in targets. So I would only start him if

1055
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:23,360
Speaker 2: you know you absolutely have to.

1056
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is like I said this. The Vikings are

1057
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: a really tough projection this week because it's not just Jefferson.

1058
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 1: It's Jefferson plus the change at quarterback. If it was

1059
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 1: just reinserting Jefferson, you know, and you had Kirk Cousins there,

1060
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:41,280
Speaker 1: I think it'd be a lot easier to just project

1061
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 1: everyone and just go back to what was going on

1062
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 1: in the first five games. But Cousins was playing so

1063
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 1: well that in the first five games, you know, with Jefferson,

1064
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 1: Addison had one game where he didn't catch a pass,

1065
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:55,320
Speaker 1: but in the other four he had at least fifty

1066
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:58,080
Speaker 1: two receiving yards in each game. So that forty two

1067
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:01,880
Speaker 1: number that we're both projecting is significantly weller than what

1068
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:04,360
Speaker 1: he was doing with Jefferson. But again that was with

1069
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:08,399
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousin. So yeah, it's it's tough. It's tough.

1070
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:13,319
Speaker 2: And t J. Hawkinson just again a target monster. Yeah,

1071
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 2: you have to count for those going to the tight end,

1072
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: and then the wide receivers are fighting over scraps. But yeah,

1073
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 2: justin Jefferson, even if he's limited, we'll obviously command a

1074
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 2: hight target, right, So it's it's a massive blow to

1075
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 2: Addison for sure.

1076
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 1: All right, tight end, who you got in the top five?

1077
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 2: I got Travis Kelce, George Kittle, TJ. Howkinson, Sam Laporta,

1078
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 2: and Jake Ferguson no exact same order, Yeah, the ones

1079
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 2: positions were right in line.

1080
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 1: Ferguson just narrowly beats out Dalton king k just because

1081
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 1: again Dak has been playing better than Mahomes, I mean

1082
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 1: better than Josh Allen of way, and the Cowboys have

1083
00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 1: a much higher team total, so more touchdown equity for

1084
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: for Ferguson, but mckinkaid is right there at six for me.

1085
00:55:58,120 --> 00:55:59,720
Speaker 1: I think ECR has them flipped.

1086
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:03,919
Speaker 2: But who and Dawson Knox might return this week, which

1087
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 2: might just.

1088
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,800
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, it doesn't seem like though, because I

1089
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 1: think he congress to him. I think he just got engaged.

1090
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: But that's the news sing. I'm not seeing the news like, oh,

1091
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:15,000
Speaker 1: he's gonna return. I'm just seeing he got engaged. So interesting.

1092
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, he could, but I feel like

1093
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 1: we might, it would have probably been more imminent. So

1094
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 1: I haven't seen anything that suggests at least not this week,

1095
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 1: but who knows. But either way, I mean, I think

1096
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 1: at this point you're probably going to kind of ride

1097
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:31,360
Speaker 1: with this just all you know, it's been working for

1098
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 1: them with with Chakir, you know, going back to that

1099
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: three wives, So I don't I don't know if that

1100
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 1: would even come back to his full role. I think

1101
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 1: Kaid might kind of stay at his No. Eighty percent

1102
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:46,239
Speaker 1: routes run yeah he should, uh but who you who

1103
00:56:46,280 --> 00:56:47,480
Speaker 1: are you highing on at tight end?

1104
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 2: I'm doubling down this week on David Joku. He's my

1105
00:56:52,040 --> 00:56:55,840
Speaker 2: tight end six against the Jaguars. Uh So, of course

1106
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 2: when I finally show the guy some love, he has

1107
00:56:57,960 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 2: his worst game of the season to catch for seventeen yards.

1108
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 2: Every tight end is you know, we got to forgive

1109
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 2: them for one bad game. Only Travis Kelce, you know,

1110
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 2: can avoid duds. I guess, but that was his lowest

1111
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:13,919
Speaker 2: output of the season and it wasn't even that bad

1112
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 2: to be honest, But I think he bounces back this

1113
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 2: week against the Jags defense that just got torched by

1114
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 2: Jake Browning. You know, Joe Flacco had signs of rust,

1115
00:57:23,640 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 2: but he looked decent. I guess maybe they'll be more

1116
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 2: pass heavy, you know, with him under center, especially this week,

1117
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 2: and Joku you know, could see even more targets if

1118
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 2: Mark Cooper is limited again. I feel like every game

1119
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 2: he leaves due to injury, so he might miss this week,

1120
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 2: so that would just lead to more targets for Djoku.

1121
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 2: I think east yards is too low on him again

1122
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:49,480
Speaker 2: here at tight end eleven, so again have to forgive

1123
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,960
Speaker 2: him for his bad game last week. He's right there

1124
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 2: almost in my top five. Again, he's my tight end

1125
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 2: six to open the week.

1126
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're you're super high. I'm at Titan nine, so

1127
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:02,160
Speaker 1: I am higher than consensus. But yeah, it's there's there is.

1128
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 1: There is a lot of moving parts with you know,

1129
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 1: kind of not knowing whether Cooper's in or out the

1130
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 1: weather backup quarterback, so yeah, it's all I'm reluctant to

1131
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 1: put him above a guy like you know, Taysom Hill

1132
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:15,600
Speaker 1: or somebody like that.

1133
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:18,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, to be fair, I would I would probably start

1134
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 2: Taysom Hill over him, and Kincaid too, yeah yeah, but

1135
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 2: like a guy, a guy like Evan Ingram with the

1136
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 2: quarterback situation, that's where it gets dicey. Yeah, but either way,

1137
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 2: I think Joku's in that discussion.

1138
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have Yeah, I have Hill, Kincaid, Hill, and

1139
00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:35,520
Speaker 1: Ingram sixty seven eight and then the Djoku nine.

1140
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 2: Uh.

1141
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 1: And then the guy I'm high on is Cole Comet,

1142
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 1: who is my tight end ten and he's the Titan

1143
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 1: twelve in ECR. So not a massive difference, but you know,

1144
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 1: tight ends, there's no especially this time of year, probably

1145
00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:53,720
Speaker 1: not going to have these massive differences in our projections.

1146
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:56,520
Speaker 1: But I do think Komett is not quite getting the

1147
00:58:56,560 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 1: respect he deserves from this tight end twelve ranking. He

1148
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 1: is the tight end six on the season in terms

1149
00:59:03,760 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 1: of points per game. He has a target rate per

1150
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: out of twenty point four percent, which is six among

1151
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 1: tight ends on the week fourteen slate, and Detroit has

1152
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: allowed six touchdown catches two tight ends, which is tied

1153
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:21,080
Speaker 1: for the third most in the league. So Comet did

1154
00:59:21,160 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 1: have a down game against Detroit a few weeks ago

1155
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 1: in that matchup, but a lot of times you see

1156
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 1: those things flip, especially when you're not talking about like

1157
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,680
Speaker 1: a star player. You know, those guys will usually just

1158
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:33,800
Speaker 1: call out no matter what. But sometimes the role players,

1159
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 1: if they have a bad game in the first division game,

1160
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:37,680
Speaker 1: they might have a go in the second one, and

1161
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 1: vice versa. So I'm not too worried about it with

1162
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 1: tight ends, you just have to kind of trust the

1163
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,520
Speaker 1: underlying numbers, and you know, can't really get too too

1164
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 1: cute here. So co Comet top top six tight end

1165
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 1: on the season. Don't think he should be outside the

1166
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:58,520
Speaker 1: top ten this week, especially with Trey McBride on a buy.

1167
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: He's been, you know, he's been kind of filling a

1168
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 1: top five spot this week, and you know, May we'll

1169
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 1: see about Dallas Goddard. But yeah, I think I think

1170
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 1: Comet is startable this week.

1171
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:13,000
Speaker 2: You well, I think we might be in agreement here,

1172
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:16,760
Speaker 2: but I'm low on Pat Friarmouth. He's my tight end nineteen.

1173
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 2: And of course, you know, a week after looking like

1174
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 2: prime Gronk, he came crashing back down to earth with

1175
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 2: you know, a three catch twenty nine hour game. His

1176
01:00:27,400 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 2: route participation stayed just under seventy percent, so that might

1177
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 2: be where he stays, you know, for the rest of

1178
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:35,760
Speaker 2: the season. So it's gonna be tough for him to

1179
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,960
Speaker 2: be consistent such a low pass volume offense with other

1180
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 2: mouths to feed. And you know, it might not be

1181
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 2: too big of a drop off from Picket to Trubisky,

1182
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 2: but this could be you know, a run heavy game

1183
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:52,000
Speaker 2: plan for the Steelers because you know, the Patriots probably

1184
01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 2: won't put up any points, so not too much reason

1185
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:57,600
Speaker 2: to throw here. So yeah, I think Firemouth it looked

1186
01:00:57,640 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 2: like he was back in the tight end one discussion,

1187
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:01,400
Speaker 2: but this week he's out of it for me, all

1188
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:02,640
Speaker 2: the way down to tight end nineteen.

1189
01:01:03,480 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and a lot of tight end just comes down

1190
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 1: to routes and touchdown equity, and you know with Friar

1191
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 1: roots kind of you know, he used to be a

1192
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 1: guy that you could get, you know, high seventies, low

1193
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:19,280
Speaker 1: eighties in terms of the route participation. And you know,

1194
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh usually is projected for over twenty points at least,

1195
01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: but you know, these days it's a struggle. And that

1196
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:29,440
Speaker 1: Patriot offense, I mean, you know, he has the Chargers

1197
01:01:29,480 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 1: to six points, you know, and they've lost three games

1198
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 1: where they've held the opponent to what ten points are fewer,

1199
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: So this Patriot defense is nothing to sneeze at. H

1200
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:44,440
Speaker 1: It's just there's no there's nothing really that uh to

1201
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,440
Speaker 1: hang your hat on with any steewer pass catcher. I

1202
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:49,600
Speaker 1: don't think this week, you know, especially early in the

1203
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 1: week when you know there could be some other startuple

1204
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:54,960
Speaker 1: guys that could emerge, especially at a onesie position, we

1205
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:57,680
Speaker 1: only need to start one one player usually like tight end,

1206
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 1: So I would not jump the gun. And then you know,

1207
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 1: even if I'm in a twelve team league, and I

1208
01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 1: know the East r is number eleven, but I agree

1209
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 1: I'm number eighteen at tight end for Fryar moves, so

1210
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 1: I'd kind of hold off see what happens, to see

1211
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,320
Speaker 1: if you can pick somebody up, or you know there

1212
01:02:13,400 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 1: should be a better option out there than Pat. Kate Otton,

1213
01:02:16,960 --> 01:02:20,400
Speaker 1: for example, is a guy I would start over Pat

1214
01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 1: fryar Wove this week just because there's a little bit

1215
01:02:22,840 --> 01:02:25,520
Speaker 1: more touchdown equity. You're getting a lot more routes run

1216
01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 1: as well. All right, what do you got for the problem?

1217
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:36,000
Speaker 2: We're going with Taysom Hill, So total passing, rushing and

1218
01:02:36,280 --> 01:02:42,320
Speaker 2: receiving yards combine them all against the Panthers. This is

1219
01:02:42,360 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 2: a fun number to set. I'll let you gather your

1220
01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:50,880
Speaker 2: info here, but I'm setting it at a nice sixty

1221
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 2: nine and a half yards for Taysom Hill.

1222
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 1: Do you have thirteen carries for fifty nine last week?

1223
01:02:56,280 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 2: Right?

1224
01:02:57,400 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 1: You said sixty nine? Yeah, I have him. I'm still

1225
01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:04,200
Speaker 1: in the uh, I'm still in the mid fifties. So yeah,

1226
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:06,480
Speaker 1: I have him significantly. He's my tight end seven. But

1227
01:03:07,960 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 1: it's you know, a lot of it is touchdown EQUI uh,

1228
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 1: it's his carries have been They've been definitely on the upswing.

1229
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 1: So I am projecting him for more carries than I

1230
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:18,760
Speaker 1: would was earlier in the season. But he's been a

1231
01:03:18,800 --> 01:03:23,840
Speaker 1: little bit a little bit kind of high variance, So yeah,

1232
01:03:24,080 --> 01:03:28,360
Speaker 1: it's exactly, and I mean with the way tight end is,

1233
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 1: especially at this point, I think this is a position

1234
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:33,479
Speaker 1: where you can even though he does have a low floor,

1235
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:36,640
Speaker 1: the ceiling is so high, like his ceiling is, he

1236
01:03:36,720 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 1: can put up you know, like a wide receiver one

1237
01:03:38,720 --> 01:03:41,560
Speaker 1: type week. So he's the guy that I think is

1238
01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 1: worth starting with the low floor. That's why I have

1239
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:46,960
Speaker 1: him number seven. But I still do have his yardage

1240
01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:49,840
Speaker 1: in the mid fifties. I have you know, one and

1241
01:03:49,920 --> 01:03:54,320
Speaker 1: a half catches and then about in the route just

1242
01:03:54,640 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 1: a little bit over thirty rushing yards, so about yeah,

1243
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:00,320
Speaker 1: like about forty just under fifty scrimmage yard and then

1244
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 1: like a six yards passing So yeah, not quite not

1245
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 1: quite at sixty nine for me.

1246
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you remove week one where he had four,

1247
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 2: I think he was hurt, his season median is sixty eight,

1248
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:13,360
Speaker 2: which is insane.

1249
01:04:13,440 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 1: Got it? Yeah, that is pretty good. But yeah, I

1250
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 1: mean I do I break it down, you know obviously, Yeah,

1251
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 1: giving him the share he has of he's getting about

1252
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:26,920
Speaker 1: three percent drop back, So I just you know, whatever

1253
01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 1: that projects out to, it's like about it's about like

1254
01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:33,120
Speaker 1: one attempt and then uh, yeah, I think it's the

1255
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:35,760
Speaker 1: rushing yards. I guess I have at some yards per

1256
01:04:35,840 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 1: carrier regression because I have him like around but no,

1257
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:40,160
Speaker 1: I guess i'll have him four point eight. He's at

1258
01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 1: four point nine, but he's he's averaging twenty nine rushing

1259
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:45,280
Speaker 1: yards per game. I have him over that and then.

1260
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 2: And he gets a lot more in positive game screen

1261
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:51,080
Speaker 2: right facing the panther. So that's why I juice it

1262
01:04:51,160 --> 01:04:51,600
Speaker 2: up a little bit.

1263
01:04:51,600 --> 01:04:52,360
Speaker 1: So I'll take it.

1264
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 2: I'll take your underaction here.

1265
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:55,880
Speaker 1: I'll take it, Okay. Yeah, I mean I have a

1266
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:59,680
Speaker 1: pretty significant deltsa on that actually, so I'm not mad

1267
01:04:59,720 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 1: at it. I mean I hate fade and say something

1268
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:04,040
Speaker 1: because but he is kind of you know, he is

1269
01:05:04,120 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 1: a floor guy, and he could get like, you know,

1270
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 1: twenty yard total yards but two touchdowns. So yeah, true

1271
01:05:10,320 --> 01:05:15,000
Speaker 1: pass rushing receiving. But yeah, don't bench take them this week, guys,

1272
01:05:15,080 --> 01:05:19,800
Speaker 1: like this is the tighten like after Kincaid, there's no

1273
01:05:19,880 --> 01:05:21,720
Speaker 1: tight end. I would rather start, and like I would,

1274
01:05:21,760 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 1: I would not rather start Ingram. I would not rather start,

1275
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 1: even I know you having a joke. I would. I

1276
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:29,880
Speaker 1: actually would rather Hell because I think he'll have feeling. Yeah, yeah,

1277
01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:32,120
Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for a week four t NFL

1278
01:05:32,280 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 1: Player production episode of the Action Everork Podcast presented by

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Speaker 1: bet MVM, the King of Sports Books. For more great

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Speaker 1: fantasy content from Seawan and I, be sure to check

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Speaker 1: out our full Fancy preview episode as I mentioned, that's

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Speaker 1: out now over on the Fantasy Flex podcast channel. If

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Speaker 1: you're in a betting you already know. My week We

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Speaker 1: Betting preview episode with Stucky will be out every Thursday.

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Speaker 1: We've been having a really great season, so if you're

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Speaker 1: in the betting, be sure to check that out right

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Speaker 1: here on the Action Network podcast channel, and also be

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Speaker 1: sure to check out the Action Network discord server if

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Speaker 1: you're interested. Sean is very active on there. You can

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Speaker 1: find the information in the episode description. Shawn is on

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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