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Speaker 1: Terms and Responsible Gaming Resources. Hi, everybody, and welcome into

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Speaker 1: our Friday morning podcast. So you know, in my career,

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Speaker 1: I've always thought I'm not against sportscasters who are like homers.

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Speaker 1: Like a lot of local TV and radio people are

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Speaker 1: big homers. You know, if you listen to WFA and

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Speaker 1: in New York, you know they're all wearing their jet

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Speaker 1: hoodies and they're doing their thing. That didn't bother me

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Speaker 1: at all. But I've never that's never been my thing.

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Speaker 1: I always feel like I'm the judge. You're the jury

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Speaker 1: and the two teams, or the prosecuting attorney, the DA,

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Speaker 1: and my job is to just give sort of a

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Speaker 1: unemotional opinion on stuff, and I think I built my

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Speaker 1: career on trying not to be a Homer. It's hard

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Speaker 1: with Washington because when I was a kid, it was

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Speaker 1: the first team I loved. It wasn't the Seahawks, it

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Speaker 1: wasn't the Mariners. The first team I loved was the

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Speaker 1: Washington Huskies. And I can remember the radio being on

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Speaker 1: on Saturday afternoons, and they had a running back named

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Speaker 1: Robin Earl. He wore number ninety nine, and they had

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Speaker 1: these just very purple gold, kind of generic uniforms, and

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Speaker 1: I just loved college football. And I don't know why,

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Speaker 1: but I love the Huskies. And then Don James takes

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Speaker 1: them over in the seventies and Warren Moon and Spider

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Speaker 1: Gaines and Michael Jackson the linebacker. It's the first team

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Speaker 1: I loved. And whatever you love at nine ten years

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Speaker 1: old is what you love for life, right, And it's

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Speaker 1: the one team, not USC not the Patriots, not Brady.

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Speaker 1: The one team I really have an emotional attachment to

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Speaker 1: is Washington. So I've always kind of pushed back on that.

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Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to be a Homer. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they match up with Michigan terribly well, and

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Speaker 1: my guess is that Michigan wins. My guess would be

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Speaker 1: like thirty to twenty three. You know, if I had

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Speaker 1: to bet my four oh one k, I would actually

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Speaker 1: take Michigan here. And the reasons being is that I

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Speaker 1: think Kaylin de Boor is really a prep monster. I

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Speaker 1: think he's one of those rare coaches like an Andy

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Speaker 1: Reid that is almost unbeatable when he has extra time,

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Speaker 1: and now they don't. And so when you've got a

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Speaker 1: month to prepare for Texas, you can bring in things

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Speaker 1: that you just don't have time to put in over

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Speaker 1: the course of five days or four days of practice.

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Speaker 1: But once you get to the championship game, both teams

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Speaker 1: equally rested and it's short, it's just your regular college

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Speaker 1: football week. I think Michigan's just got better players. Washington

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Speaker 1: is heavily penalized, Michigan is rarely penalized. Washington's got some age,

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Speaker 1: but a lot of underclassmen. And Michigan's old O line

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Speaker 1: for Washington, some say is the best in the country.

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Speaker 1: If it's not. Michigan's is d line huge edge. Michigan

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Speaker 1: both great coaches, but I just feel like Michigan feels

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Speaker 1: like a national champion. They have seven blowouts, you know,

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Speaker 1: and Washington feels like a really good football team that

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Speaker 1: is brilliantly coached and quarterbacked. I do think personnel wise,

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Speaker 1: I don't you know, Washington's wide receivers are better than Michigan's.

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Speaker 1: That's not terribly close, and Penix is better than JJ.

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Speaker 1: McCarthy is a collegian. But I think Michigan would have

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Speaker 1: the majority of the starters in the game, and I

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Speaker 1: think on regular week of practice, neutral field, you'll see

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Speaker 1: Michigan flex. It'll be a good game. Washington certainly good

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Speaker 1: enough and potent enough to win backdoor cover or back

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Speaker 1: door win with a couple of late aerial touchdowns. But

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Speaker 1: you don't get any cheapies over the top against Michigan.

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Speaker 1: I said, I thought Washington it was a great matchup

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Speaker 1: against Texas because the Longhorns, frankly had a not very

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Speaker 1: good in the back end, and that's Washington strain. But

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the things about Michigan is that,

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Speaker 1: and I talked about this on FS one. Whatever makes

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Speaker 1: you sleep better at night, go ahead. But the Patriots

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Speaker 1: and Brady were better after Spygate, and they were better

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Speaker 1: after the flake Gate. Brady's numbers went up after the

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Speaker 1: flate gate. The Colts were bitter because New England was

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Speaker 1: dominating the series, and so they turned the Patriots in

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Speaker 1: for deflate Gate. Brady's numbers went up once there was

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Speaker 1: no extra additive air to the mall or less air

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Speaker 1: in the ball. Connor Stallions, it was at most one

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Speaker 1: percent for Michigan they've played. If they beat Washington in

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Speaker 1: their favor, to beat Washington, they will have beaten Washington, Alabama,

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Speaker 1: and Ohio State in order with no quote cheating. This

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Speaker 1: team is about hardball, their O line, D line, their

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Speaker 1: lack of penalties, their NFL bodies, their upper classmen. They're

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Speaker 1: discipline and intelligence. Whatever makes you sleep better at night. Spygate,

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Speaker 1: the flightgate, Connor Stallions, but now we know they're not

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Speaker 1: quote cheating. If they beat Washington, when's the last time

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Speaker 1: Washington lost a football game. They've beaten Oregon twice and

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Speaker 1: Texas twice in those four games. The last time they've

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Speaker 1: played Texas twice two Bowl games, beat them both Texas

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Speaker 1: Texas who hammered Alabama, overwhelmed them in Tuscaloosa, physically pushed

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Speaker 1: them around. So they're gonna have beaten Washington, Ohio States

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Speaker 1: a juggernaut, and Alabama without the Connor Stallion's advantage. This

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Speaker 1: team is about so many things. If you think it's

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Speaker 1: cheating signals, there's no reason. Like I said before, I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna argue uncertain things like the vaccines absolutely saved

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Speaker 1: millions of lives, especially for older people. They weren't needed

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Speaker 1: for kids. I'm not a fan of mandate. They saved

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Speaker 1: a lot of lives. I know six or seven people

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Speaker 1: that didn't get them. They were stubborn or they don't

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Speaker 1: like needles. They got sick as hell, My family, me friends,

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Speaker 1: lots of it. We took the vaccines. We had COVID

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Speaker 1: boom two days. Fine, right, So I'm just not gonna

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Speaker 1: argue with you. You go ahead and live in your

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Speaker 1: conspiracy theory. I don't care. And you can go ahead

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Speaker 1: and convince yourself that you know, Connor Stallions is the

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Speaker 1: reason they won. Yeah, I'm gonna go with no. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna give Washington's offense problems, and virtually nobody gives Washington's

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Speaker 1: offense problems. And you're gonna watch mondy night and go yeez,

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Speaker 1: Washington's facial little pressure Washington seems to be off, and

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Speaker 1: you're going to look up and realize this has never

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Speaker 1: been about an iPhone's shaky video and hand signals. This

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Speaker 1: Michigan team is one great college receiver away from being

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Speaker 1: an Alzheimer. This is a really good football team. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk Chad Millman, Sharper Square, shall we all?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman, CCO, The Action Network,

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Speaker 1: All odds provided by DraftKings. I'm not prone to brag,

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Speaker 1: but I am on a little bit of a heater.

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Speaker 2: I don't talk about it, don't say it. You're gonna

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Speaker 2: turn yourself into a cooler man, I know.

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Speaker 1: So listen, there's only two games all year that have

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Speaker 1: made me bitter and losing. I lost a doint in

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Speaker 1: the Saints game because they hit the crossbar and a kick.

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Speaker 1: And that Colts Raiders game you told me to stay away.

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Speaker 1: I still contend this morning. The Colts was aside. Whatever whatever.

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Speaker 2: You know what though, here's the good news. Here's the

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Speaker 2: good news. You and I were texting and I was

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Speaker 2: begging you to bet the Cardinals, to be my betting buddy,

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Speaker 2: and you did. I did, and it felt good, right.

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Speaker 1: It felt great? But I you know what's funny, I

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Speaker 1: really I Greg co Sell comes on my show and

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Speaker 1: I told Greg today, I said, Greg, I watch him play,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, there's not three of him on the planet.

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Speaker 1: I like Kyler Murray. I don't care about his video games.

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Speaker 1: I watch him. I'm like, I wouldn't want to tackle him.

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Speaker 1: He's just great. He's just like if you were in

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Speaker 1: a school yard and you're like, who's the guy that

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Speaker 1: nobody can tackle, you'd be like that guy him and

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Speaker 1: Lamar like I just like him. So all right, let's

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Speaker 1: start with this because it's a weird week. It's a

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Speaker 1: bad week. You don't have starters. Who really cares? One

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Speaker 1: of the things a sports gambler told me years ago,

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Speaker 1: he loved betting March Madness. He goes because everybody's in.

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Speaker 1: There's no like, oh, you know, it's a long road trip,

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Speaker 1: like the NBA goes NBA. You've got to pick your spots.

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Speaker 1: March Madness. All games are true. This is the most

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Speaker 1: untrue week of the NFL season, Like, who cares? So

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Speaker 1: I would take the Texans minus one and a half

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Speaker 1: against the Colts because basically, you're saying to yourself, who

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Speaker 1: do you trust?

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 1: I think CJ. Stroud is better than we think, and

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Speaker 1: I think we all think he's good. I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: the Texans. I I think CJ. Stroud I watch him play.

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Speaker 1: I love his I love his setup, I love his

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Speaker 1: arm strength, I love his accuracy. I think he's sensational. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I had no idea his comp was Jared Goff. I

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Speaker 1: didn't know he would be slightly better than Jared his

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Speaker 1: first year. I thought comp is like he'll become. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: he's Jared Goff with more of a power arm that

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Speaker 1: moves better. So I like the Texans. Here Sharper Square.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, we discussed this exact game today and for

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Speaker 2: those who are listening for the first time on my podcast,

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Speaker 2: The Favorites, we will do this segment where we do

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Speaker 2: something called Sharp Calls, and we get calls me and

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Speaker 2: my co host Simon Hunter. We'll get calls from professional

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Speaker 2: betters throughout the week who listen to our show on

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Speaker 2: Tuesday and then on Thursday. By Thursday, they've got opinions

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Speaker 2: and they will call us over the forty eight hours

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Speaker 2: between Tuesday and Thursday and give us their opinions. This

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Speaker 2: game was completely so the Texans opened as one and

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Speaker 2: a half point underdogs in this game Sunday night. I

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Speaker 2: will tell you right now, it was the first game

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Speaker 2: that I bet the Texans plus one and a half.

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Speaker 2: The wise guys bet at two. They bettered at one,

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Speaker 2: then they better at pick, then they better at Texans

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Speaker 2: minus one. Now it's minus one and a half. So

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Speaker 2: you're I agree that Texans are still the right side.

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Speaker 2: I think CJ.

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Speaker 1: Strouder last week, I told you I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: clobber the Titans. They're a better team.

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Speaker 2: One hundred percent right, they are a better team. Gardner

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Speaker 2: Minshew plays with fire every week. He has the fourth

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Speaker 2: most turnover worthy throws of anybody in the NFL, behind

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Speaker 2: Josh Jobbs, Desmond Ritter, Daniel Jones. Okay, Shane Steiken just

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Speaker 2: keeps him out of trouble. But when Gardner Minshew has

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Speaker 2: to come back or potentially is in trouble, that's when

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Speaker 2: there's trouble, right, And so you're kind of betting on CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud to be better than Gardner Minshew in a price

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Speaker 2: game where every possession is going to matter on the field,

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Speaker 2: that's what you're doing. Totally sharp here's why the wise

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Speaker 2: guys might not be on your side. And this is

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Speaker 2: why this game was split and such a good debate today.

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Speaker 2: When you start betting on a team that goes from

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Speaker 2: being an underdog to being a favorite, historically, the percentages

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Speaker 2: work against you in terms of covering. So that's why

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Speaker 2: wise guys, when it's at one and a half Texans

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Speaker 2: minus one and a half, they start to walk away

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Speaker 2: and start to think about the cults.

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Speaker 1: The second game is Bill Belichick is nothing if not

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Speaker 1: a grudge holder. He wants to win this game so

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Speaker 1: much because his career. I mean, there's like multiple stories

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Speaker 1: out of the Boston Herald Belichick's out, He's told his

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Speaker 1: staff he wants to screw up their draft. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: walk out of here get the Washington job. He cares

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Speaker 1: so deeply about winning, you think he wants to hand

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Speaker 1: them Michael Nix or Drake May You want some fifth

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say they if they if you watch

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Speaker 1: them the last three weeks, I mean, I guess Buffalo,

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Speaker 1: you're like, oh, they're really competing. Oh yeah, they're really competing.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Patriots minus two and a half

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Speaker 1: at home to beat a listless Jets team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's totally square. You're stepping in it. Look, it's

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Speaker 2: not a game that anybody wants to bet. This all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden is the corner TV game, right, because

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Speaker 2: you're getting a short home favorite in which the bookmakers

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Speaker 2: are saying to the squares, come on, I dare you

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Speaker 2: take the short home favorite. Take the team that has

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Speaker 2: been competitive the past few weeks at less than a

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Speaker 2: field goal. That's what we want you to do. If

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Speaker 2: the bookmakers are telling you they want you to do something,

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Speaker 2: then you want to do something else. So the wise

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Speaker 2: guys are going to be on the Jets here. But

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Speaker 2: this is not one of those games where everyone's like,

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Speaker 2: oh yeah, I gotta take. There is huge edge in

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Speaker 2: the Jets or the Patriots in this game. I will

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Speaker 2: tell you one other thing, and it's interesting for this

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Speaker 2: week because it's applicable for every game home teams in

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Speaker 2: division games the past five years forty seven percent against

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Speaker 2: the spread.

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Speaker 1: It's weird.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's weird, it is. But then you got to like, look, Colin,

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Speaker 2: there's a million stats and trends that you could sort

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Speaker 2: of layer onto this.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: You got to think about and It's not applicable in

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Speaker 2: this game, but it will be in others. Like you

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Speaker 2: can't take every trend and just say, Okay, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to do it. Trends are the handrail on the roller coaster.

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Speaker 2: If you've got an opinion, they might make you feel

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Speaker 2: a little more secure. It can make you feel like

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Speaker 2: you're making a better decision. It should not be what

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Speaker 2: you base your decision on.

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Speaker 1: All Right, a game, I like Bill's minus three at Miami.

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Speaker 1: Now Chubb and Phillips are out no pass rush against

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Speaker 1: John Allen. I think the Bills are a better team.

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Speaker 1: I think they were looking ahead to Miami when they

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Speaker 1: played New England. I thought the Dolphins were awful defensively.

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Speaker 1: I think the reality has hit Miami. They now their

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Speaker 1: defense had a pass rush and not much else, and

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Speaker 1: now it doesn't have a pass rush. Buffalo is a

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Speaker 1: better team. Josh Allen has eaten against Miami like Brian

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Speaker 1: Flores couldn't stop him. Mike mcdett, they just don't have

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Speaker 1: the personnel. I'm gonna take Buffalo to win by a

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Speaker 1: touchdown minus three. Sharper square most interesting game on the board.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you right now it's square. But I will also.

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Speaker 2: Tell you, you and I and our best friend Simon, we're

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Speaker 2: making an executive decision on this. We're going to be

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Speaker 2: in the fox hole together. We like the Bills in

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Speaker 2: this spot. Let me give you some interesting stats.

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Speaker 1: I didn't Diyreek Hill by the way, house burns down midweek.

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Speaker 2: Look, so i'll mention you.

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Speaker 1: Tell me that's not disrupt.

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Speaker 2: Listen, you mentioned Chubb, you mentioned the injuries on the

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Speaker 2: defensive side. Out of the ball. Tyreek Hill has been

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Speaker 2: playing injured. Waddle has been playing injured. I do think

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Speaker 2: I am not a guy who believes that there are

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Speaker 2: emotional storylines that can be hindrances, because these guys are professionals.

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Speaker 2: But look, Tyreek Hill, there was video from practice. He

293
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Speaker 2: did not look like it looked like he was taking

294
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Speaker 2: this as he should, which is scary and something that

295
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,680
Speaker 2: can be a distraction. Right. I agree with you in

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Speaker 2: every respect on this game. Here's something cool October second.

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Speaker 2: So on October second, Buffalo was minus one forty to

298
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Speaker 2: win the AFC East. Miami was plus one thirty eight.

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Speaker 2: On December third, two months later, Buffalo plus I let

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Speaker 2: me get my glasses on here, because I want to

301
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Speaker 2: make sure you'd it right. I didn't know you were

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Speaker 2: going to ask me this question. So it just just

303
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Speaker 2: happens to be Buffalo plus fifteen hundred to win the

304
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Speaker 2: AFC East, Miami minus four hundred. Okay, basically, for those listening,

305
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Speaker 2: you don't know, Buffalo was such a long shot that

306
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Speaker 2: they were not even a consideration to win the AFC East.

307
00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,480
Speaker 2: Miami was so much was expected to win so easily

308
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Speaker 2: that you had to spend so much money if you

309
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 2: wanted to bet on them. Right now, Buffalo has the

310
00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,760
Speaker 2: shortest odds it's had all season, minus one sixty five

311
00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,119
Speaker 2: to win the AFC East. It has been a roller coaster.

312
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Speaker 2: What's amazing is Buffalo could end up being the best

313
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Speaker 2: team in the NFL right now, and if they don't

314
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Speaker 2: win this game, they might not make the playoffs.

315
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Speaker 1: Okay, Seahawks minus two and a half at Arizona. So

316
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,639
Speaker 1: Seattle's humiliated. And not only that, I always say a

317
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:41,639
Speaker 1: well coached team, capably quarterback team that's physically humiliated. I

318
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Speaker 1: mean literally, Pittsburgh just threw them around there like bully them.

319
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,399
Speaker 1: Seattle playing for a playoff spot, I think they're going

320
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,400
Speaker 1: to play very well here. If the number was three.

321
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,159
Speaker 1: I would pass. It's a numbers get Arizona's off. By

322
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Speaker 1: the way, their best performance in two years. It probably

323
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Speaker 1: a little overvalued on the market. I'm going to probably

324
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Speaker 1: take Seattle minus two and a half. I know I

325
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Speaker 1: like favorites this week, Sharper square.

326
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Speaker 2: It's a little square. The number was at three, it

327
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 2: moved down to two and a half. It's hard to

328
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Speaker 2: find a reason to like Seattle. What they did against

329
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 2: the Steelers. Their inability to tackle anybody is not bad.

330
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 2: It was not It was not something that was a

331
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 2: one off. This has been their m all year, Like

332
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,520
Speaker 2: they cannot tackle. Like watching Pete Carroll trying to implore

333
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 2: his defense to tackle Najee Harris was sad and sort

334
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,399
Speaker 2: of disheartening as someone who was kind of hoping the

335
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,639
Speaker 2: Seahawks would win that game. So I don't like this bet, Colin.

336
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:45,639
Speaker 2: I don't like it one bit. And there are so

337
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Speaker 2: many bets on the board that are that are attractive,

338
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 2: and you could throw me the Jets and the Patriots.

339
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,199
Speaker 2: You're the one who says to me your philosophy, I

340
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,639
Speaker 2: want to bet on games I want to watch you

341
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Speaker 2: want to watch these games?

342
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 1: Well, it's a limited week, and I think Belichick will

343
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 1: be interesting. Okay, so now let's move into the two categories.

344
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,000
Speaker 1: I have a talk me into it game and a

345
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:14,360
Speaker 1: dumpster dive. So I do think Bears Packers is interesting

346
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 1: because I do think eber Flus and Justin Fields are

347
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 1: largely playing for their job. And although I do think

348
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 1: Jordan Love had maybe his best game as a Packer,

349
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 1: there's a desperation here on the Chicago Bears. Employment's desperate,

350
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 1: and I would probably, I would probably take the Bears here.

351
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 1: Plus three. Man, you're if I'm doing a show for

352
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 1: my job. That's a whole different ballgame. Is that Sharper square?

353
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Speaker 2: Colin? I need you to think that every day your

354
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 2: job is on the line. Because you are taking the

355
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears this week, that will be in your blaze.

356
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 2: In five Chicago Bears plus three, great matchup for the Bears.

357
00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 2: So number one, it hits that trend I talk about

358
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 2: where you want to play the road team against the

359
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 2: home team in the division. There is another trend going

360
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 2: back to nineteen ninety that hits it as sixty percent

361
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 2: clip where the teams that are out of it playing

362
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 2: teams that are in it cover sixty percent of the time.

363
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 2: Now that's that's fine. Again, take trends with a grain

364
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 2: of salt. You want to use them to sort of

365
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:24,439
Speaker 2: complement your overall philosophy. Right, let's look what's happening on

366
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 2: the field of play. The Bears defense since they got

367
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 2: meant to Monte sweat lights out, not just like a

368
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 2: good defense.

369
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Speaker 1: For the record, it was remarkable to me to watch

370
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 1: Chicago media crush their front office. Wouldn't you give up

371
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,360
Speaker 1: a second round pick for a dominating defensive lineman.

372
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:42,400
Speaker 2: Dominating defensive line.

373
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Speaker 1: I mean, I didn't understand, Like Chase Claypool's different. There's

374
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: a million receivers, there's nine great defensive linemen in the league.

375
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 1: Second round pick.

376
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,160
Speaker 2: Great trade. Now again talk about trade, talk about talk

377
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,679
Speaker 2: about sort of your job being on the line. The

378
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 2: Bears GM he made a great trade. What does he

379
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: do next? And now this is where it gets interesting. Right,

380
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,719
Speaker 2: So that defense is elite. And by the way, what

381
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: we saw last week is Minnesota with the Packers is

382
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: Minnesota likes to blitz. Jordan Love has thirty touchdown passes

383
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 2: this year. He has been incredibly accurate and efficient against

384
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 2: the blitz. So they were set up to get blown out.

385
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 2: The Vikings were set up to get blown out in

386
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,479
Speaker 2: that game. No matter who's playing quarterback. The Bears are

387
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 2: not a team that is going to blitz you NonStop.

388
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 2: They will get home with their front four. Their front

389
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: four has also made their linebacking crew, especially TJ. Edwards,

390
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,959
Speaker 2: much better. And don't forget Jalen Johnson, he's a Pro

391
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 2: Bowl cornerback. Grating is one of the best cornerbacks in

392
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,479
Speaker 2: the league according to Pro Football Focus. So their defense

393
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 2: is stout right Now, now you've got justin Fields playing

394
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 2: against a defense for the Packers that has truly been terrible.

395
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 2: Forget about what happened in terrible on Sunday night, right,

396
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: forget about that the Packers. Since they beat the Chiefs,

397
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 2: and by the way, they got a little help from

398
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 2: the rest of that game. What did they do? They

399
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 2: lost to the Giants. Right, they gave up thirty points

400
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 2: to the Carolina Panthers. The Carolina Panthers have not scored

401
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: more than three touchdowns since October fifteenth except for that game.

402
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 2: This is not a good defense going up against a

403
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 2: very good offense. A team in the Bears seven and

404
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 2: five the past twelve games. Take the Bears.

405
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:28,479
Speaker 1: One more. Talk me into it. Arthur Smith coaching for

406
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: his job plus three and a half at the Saints.

407
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 1: It feels like to me, the Saints are not It's

408
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: an offensive coach against the defensive coach. It's a division

409
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 1: rival getting over a field goal. Atlanta pl and I

410
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: hate betting Atlanta. They have been an ATM machine my

411
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 1: entire life. I just just take money out and throw

412
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: it into the wind. But it feels like Atlanta plus

413
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 1: three and a half. Although I think the coach is

414
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 1: getting fired. Mondays to play Sharper square totally sharp.

415
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 2: It's exactly the right side you want to be on

416
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: Atlanta here. So number one, it's the trend we just

417
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: talked about. You want to take the road team in

418
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 2: the division. Number two. Schematically, look at the matchup. You

419
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: know Arthur Smith is coaching for his job. Right the

420
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 2: Bucks lose, the Saints lose to the Falcons, they are

421
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, they win this division. What is Arthur

422
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 2: Smith going to do. He's going to run the ball

423
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 2: because that's where his best talent is, that is where

424
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 2: he is most comfortable, that's where he can be most creative.

425
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: Get it to Algiers, get it to b Jean Robinson.

426
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: Don't let this be a game in which the quarterback

427
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: ruins it for you. The Saints running defense has not

428
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 2: been very good. Dennis Allen as a favorite. One of

429
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 2: the worst coaches the past twenty years. Derek Carr as

430
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 2: a favorite. He has not been above five hundred as

431
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 2: a favorite since before Donald Trump was inaugurated as president

432
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,719
Speaker 2: in two thousand and sixteen. I'm not even kidding. Okay,

433
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,400
Speaker 2: you don't want to bet on the Saints as a favorite,

434
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 2: just walk away and bet the Falcons.

435
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: Okay, now we do a dumpster die, but since most

436
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: of the schedules dumpster dice, I want to end this

437
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 1: week with Michigan and Washington. So I took Washington money

438
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: line against Texas, and I took Michigan against Bama, went

439
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: to and Ozho. I do think Michigan matches up much

440
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: better against Washington. They don't give up cheap over the

441
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: top touchdowns, and I do worry Klin de Boor is

442
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 1: a remarkable coach with extra time. They don't have extra time.

443
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 1: So now you've got to play back to back against

444
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 1: a superior team. Washington heavily penalized. Michigan never penalized. The

445
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 1: older team is Michigan. They're the better team. They have

446
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: seven blowouts. Washington just keeps winning narrowly. I'm a Husky.

447
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,400
Speaker 1: I'm now down to Washington, but I think Michigan wins

448
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: this game by a touchdown. I would swallow the four

449
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 1: four and a half all odds provided by DraftKings Sharper Square.

450
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 2: I don't have a strong opinion. I haven't gotten that

451
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 2: much intel in the market where they're not the wise

452
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 2: guys are going to be on the Huskies or they're

453
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 2: gonna be on the Wolverines. I don't want to mislead

454
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,959
Speaker 2: you in any way with that. I don't disagree with

455
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 2: your assessment. And look, I love this Washington team. I've

456
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 2: like I went to Indiana. I'm a huge fan of

457
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 2: Michael Pennix. Like the only time we've been relevant since

458
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: I graduated college was when Michael Penix was playing quarterback

459
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: for half of three seasons because he couldn't stay healthy.

460
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: I think the guy got job not getting the Heisman.

461
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 2: You put someone with that record, those stats, the gauntlet

462
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: of teams that he played in the SEC or the

463
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 2: Big Ten or even the ACC. He's winning the Heisman

464
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 2: hands down. I think it's I think he got robbed completely.

465
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 2: But I do agree with you. Like this Michigan team.

466
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 2: They are unafraid and they beat people up and at

467
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage, they are just so freaking physical.

468
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 2: It is really daunting. And there is nothing like that

469
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 2: in the PAC twelve. And that is something that Alabama

470
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 2: was used to seeing, like something that combination of speed

471
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 2: and physicality that doesn't exist in the PAC twelve. So

472
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: I do think that it'll be a quarter of Washington

473
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: being like Oh, even on film, we thought it was different,

474
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: but it's different when you're playing it. So I can't

475
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: give you a specific side, but I do like your analysis.

476
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 2: All Right, my man, you don't want to bet the Giants,

477
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: you don't want to bet the Panthers, you don't want

478
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: to bet the Titans.

479
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 1: Ough gross, I will say this. I took the Giants

480
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: against the Rams. You know I've said this before. I

481
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: think Tyrod Taylor is the best backup in the league.

482
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: That's my opinion. So what's the number? This week?

483
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,479
Speaker 2: The Giants were at five five and a half. I

484
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: like the Giants. A buddy of mine we were talking

485
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: about Tyrod Taylor and he used a great analogy, he said.

486
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor is like getting nineteen at the blackjack table.

487
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 2: You're not going to get excited about it. You got

488
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 2: a pretty good chance at winning, but there's still a

489
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 2: chance you can lose, but you're comfortable with it. You

490
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 2: feel like you got a shot. Yeah. I thought that

491
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 2: was brilliant, and I'm stealing it and I'm giving it

492
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 2: to you, and I want you to steal it. It

493
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: is exactly who Tyrod Taylor is, So I think, Look,

494
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:32,439
Speaker 2: the Giants are more competitive with him. They will want

495
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 2: to win this game. They will blitz. The Eagles offensive

496
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: line is in really struggling right now. They are play

497
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: calling you struggling. AJ Brown is struggling. There's something going on.

498
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 2: We have seen it all year long with this locker room.

499
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: So I'll be playing the Giants and I will definitely

500
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 2: playing the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half.

501
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna talk about that. I can't. They're unwatchable.

502
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 2: You can talk about Arizona and Seattle.

503
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I love Kyler Murray so I love watching

504
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: them play. I love watching Kyler Murray play. Love him,

505
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: I really do. Connor's great. They're running back, Kyler. I

506
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 1: can watch them all day. Tennessee is like walking past

507
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: the construction site. It's just loud, overbearing. I can't get

508
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: out of it fast enough. It's just gross clanking, nothing

509
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: good about it.

510
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 2: What about Minnesota Detroit, that's another one.

511
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 1: Oh fascinating, I stay away, you know again, it's what's

512
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: Detroit playing for. I don't like those. I don't like

513
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: these games where I wouldn't be shocked. Two series, Detroit

514
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,479
Speaker 1: lead seven nothing and they sit all their starters. They

515
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 1: just wanted their guys to get practice.

516
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: That's why you're taking Minnesota in that game. Ugh, Nick Mullins.

517
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 2: Nick Mullins lit him up. Listen, Nick Mullins is the

518
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: epitome of gambling. If Tyrad Taylor is, you know, comfortable nineteen,

519
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: Nick mud he was a fourteen. Nick Mullens is hitting

520
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 2: on sixteen. That is, Nick Mullins is hitting on sixteen

521
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 2: when the dealer is showing twenty, like you are just

522
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 2: going for it.

523
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know what a sixteen is in blackjack.

524
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: You're embarrassed, you're holding, but you know you have to

525
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: or the table disrespects you. But you literally feel like

526
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: I've lost all my testosterone I mean you literally, every

527
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: time I have a sixteen, I'm like, you got to

528
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: hit a sixteen, but you can't because you're being judged

529
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: at the table by all the smart people.

530
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 2: And that's how Nick Mullins plays.

531
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: I think he's a twelve, is what he is. It's

532
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: like you want to hit it, but not supposed to.

533
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 2: Wow, all right, fine, all right, buddy. I then taught

534
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: to you later the volume