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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Better than Most, Better than Most, crowd the Most.

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Speaker 3: This is our Best Bets episode for the twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: five US Open Team off this week at the beautiful

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Speaker 3: Oakmont Country Club on the banks of the Mighty Allegheny

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Speaker 3: River just northeast of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. So get ready for

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Speaker 3: shots of Church Pew, bunkers of thick Rough and probably

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Speaker 3: Permanci brother sand, which is if we're being honest, there's

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Speaker 3: going to be some b roll of that, as well

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Speaker 3: as the greatest golfers in the world tackle one of

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Speaker 3: the most difficult challenges in all of golf. I'm a hero,

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Speaker 3: is Mike Calbary say. I'm joined by two very special

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Speaker 3: returning guests. First up, returning to the show is our

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Speaker 3: golf betting expert, two time Fantasy Sports Writer, Association Golf

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Speaker 3: Writer of the Year and senior PGA analysts at Rhodoball

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Speaker 3: or follow them at te Off Sports. Welcome back to

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Speaker 3: the show, Spencer, Aggie.

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Speaker 4: Are how you doing?

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Speaker 1: I'm doing great. Michael.

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Speaker 5: It's a pleasure to be able to run this back

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Speaker 5: with you and Kyle. We had a great PGA Championships

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Speaker 5: show and I look forward to doing this again.

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Speaker 3: As I mentioned, you know, we have these two incredible

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Speaker 3: guests here. We're also joined by my colleague from Roto

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Speaker 3: Grinders at Golf Expert and one of the most talented

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Speaker 3: data modelers in the golf game. You can follow them

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Speaker 3: at k murr DFS. It's Kyle Murray. How are you doing, brother.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm doing good.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited to talk about this event with you. You

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Speaker 2: mentioned the beautiful Oakmond. I think it'll look beautiful to us,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not sure the players will feel the same

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Speaker 2: way when they're going through uh, what might be hell

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Speaker 2: to them. But I'm excited to see these guys struggle

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Speaker 2: a little bit. Always looking forward to the US Open.

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Speaker 2: It's always a brutal, uh brutal fest there, so I'm

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Speaker 2: looking forward to it.

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Speaker 3: Before we get into Kyle's picks, or before we get

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Speaker 3: into Spencer's model and looking for the you know, the

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Speaker 3: top edges, whether it's outrights, top five, top tens, top internationals,

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Speaker 3: head to head players, players to make or miss the cut.

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Speaker 3: We're going to touch them all here in this episode.

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Speaker 3: But before we get into that, a question for you'll

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Speaker 3: start Kyle first, is this the kind of course in

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Speaker 3: your opinion, that rewards golfers who can avoid trouble or

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Speaker 3: the kind of golfers that can pull a rabbit out

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Speaker 3: of their hat and really scramble after a bad shot

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Speaker 3: lands and that thick rough.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this course is difficult to assess just

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Speaker 2: because you know, it's I think it's so difficult compared

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Speaker 2: to you know, even challenges that we've seen throughout the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years. Obviously we've seen, you know, so

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Speaker 2: many videos on social media and whatnot. I've seen a

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Speaker 2: couple of people nominate this as the most difficult course

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Speaker 2: of the century, which is always exciting to think about

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Speaker 2: going forward. But you know, personally, I just think for

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Speaker 2: an event like this, I just think the cream is

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Speaker 2: just going to rise to the top. So that's typically

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Speaker 2: going to be the case of guys who can sort

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Speaker 2: of be the best of both worlds, the guys who

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Speaker 2: are going to be able to avoid trouble. But also

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Speaker 2: trouble is going to be inevitable. I don't think anyone's

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Speaker 2: going to be able to fully avoid it. I think

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Speaker 2: people are gona hit good.

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Speaker 4: Shots that end up in just terrible places.

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Speaker 2: So I think you're going to have to have these

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Speaker 2: guys be able to pull a rabbit out of the

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Speaker 2: hat as well? So I think the best way I

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Speaker 2: could probably answer it is, you know, I think for

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Speaker 2: the majority of the breakdow, I think it's typically gonna

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Speaker 2: be guys who can avoid trouble and hit the safe

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Speaker 2: shots nowhere to miss and whatnot. But also again, I

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Speaker 2: think great shots are going to lead to some really bad,

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Speaker 2: unfortunate bounces in bad spots. So I do think, you know,

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Speaker 2: being able to pull off that magic when need is

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Speaker 2: also going to be very crucial for this event.

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Speaker 3: Spencer, do you agree? Are you looking closer at those

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Speaker 3: kind of golfers that will not beat themselves or those

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Speaker 3: magicians around the green and out of the rough that

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Speaker 3: can really make what should be a boge double bogie

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Speaker 3: back into a par Who are you gravitating closer to?

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Speaker 3: And does your model agree with you in that regard?

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think that's the million dollar question for

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Speaker 5: this week. Like when I looked at this course, you

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Speaker 5: get presented with this all around examination. Wayward drives are

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Speaker 5: going to get punished, short game acumen is going to

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Speaker 5: get rewarded, and it's going to force players to think

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Speaker 5: critically about what is the best way to salvage par

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Speaker 5: Because as Kyle alluded to, and as even you brought up, Michael,

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Speaker 5: there are a million issues that are inevitably going to

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Speaker 5: come into play throughout around One of the things that

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Speaker 5: I wrote at the very beginning of the week in

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Speaker 5: my rotoball Or article is I was talking about distance

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Speaker 5: versus accuracy. So guys that could bomb and gouge's property

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Speaker 5: versus guys that we're gonna find a lot of fairways.

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Speaker 5: In one of the interesting notes of when I ran

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Speaker 5: it into my model, I didn't see a massive difference

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Speaker 5: in one of those two areas. I know, you look

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Speaker 5: at a seven thousand and four underd plus yard par

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Speaker 5: seventy property, and naturally a lot of distance is gonna

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Speaker 5: come into play. And I would make the argument that

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Speaker 5: if you're looking to actually win this tournament, distance is more.

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Speaker 1: Important than accuracy.

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Speaker 5: But one of the ways that I set up my model,

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Speaker 5: and I asked this kind of as an and or

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Speaker 5: set up when looking into distance or accuracy, is.

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Speaker 1: Are you long and straight?

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Speaker 5: If you're that that's gonna be the best blueprint for success.

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Speaker 5: But the other question that I asked was are you

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Speaker 5: long or accurate, because as long as you profile in

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Speaker 5: one of those two areas, I think you're starting on

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Speaker 5: the right foot of trying to take on this course.

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Speaker 5: Now the question comes into play from your point, Michael,

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Speaker 5: of what do we do and what are we looking

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Speaker 5: for for golfers that are going to be able to

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Speaker 5: salvage pars because if you're inaccurate off the tee. For me,

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Speaker 5: the number one thing that I noticed when trying to

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Speaker 5: build out a model is the players that were either

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Speaker 5: too short and also not accurate enough. Too much strain

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Speaker 5: goes into that game, so when you're scrambling, those golfers

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Speaker 5: are going to be more likely to be scrambling from

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Speaker 5: five to six feet needing to make bogie from there,

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Speaker 5: where double bogie comes into play, where if you're really

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Speaker 5: long or you're really accurate, you're kind of putting from

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Speaker 5: five to six feet for par in a lot of

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Speaker 5: those situations. So the ultimate reward are going to be

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Speaker 5: the golfers that can handle the greens. The greens are

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Speaker 5: the most challenging prospect of what makes this course course

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Speaker 5: difficult at the end of the day. So you know,

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Speaker 5: I don't know, as Kyle kind of alluded to, I

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Speaker 5: don't know if there's a singular answer one way or

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Speaker 5: the other there, but it's that all around examination that

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Speaker 5: I'm trying to find.

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Speaker 3: When you look at a golfer entering tournament, playing at

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Speaker 3: the absolute peak of their game, avoiding any mistakes, not

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Speaker 3: beating themselves.

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Speaker 4: Obviously, that starts.

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Speaker 3: With Scotti Scheffler, who is now being priced in that

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Speaker 3: prime Tiger Woods kind of neighborhood plus two fifty to

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Speaker 3: win a major. That's a non starter for most gamblers,

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Speaker 3: particularly because you can keep your money on the sideline,

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Speaker 3: wait until Friday and probably get a similar number, even

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Speaker 3: if he's top five at that point. So the idea

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Speaker 3: of tying up your money for four days without the

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Speaker 3: benefit of seeing a little bit of action, seeing how

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Speaker 3: the rough is affecting the play of this entire field,

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Speaker 3: if them cutting it down a little bit did have

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Speaker 3: an impact. All that being said, with Scheffler, is there

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Speaker 3: any way to play him this week? I'll ask you first, Kyle,

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Speaker 3: whether from an outright perspective, from a head to head

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Speaker 3: or would you go with a strategy where it's more

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Speaker 3: of a live bet mid tournament.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think from the person I talked about this

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Speaker 2: on the PGA Championship episode where for me, how I

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Speaker 2: play the PGADFS angle where I'll get a lot of

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Speaker 2: my exposure to Scotty Scheffler over on that side, I

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Speaker 2: think from a pure betting perspective, I do agree with

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Speaker 2: you one hundred percent.

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Speaker 4: I think the.

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Speaker 2: Best way to approach that is to see how the

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Speaker 2: first round, maybe even second round is, or maybe even

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Speaker 2: hope that he gets off to a slow start, and

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Speaker 2: because again, like the cream is probably gonna rise to

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Speaker 2: the top in an event like this, especially in the

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Speaker 2: course like this, So I think, yeah, live betting Scheffler,

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Speaker 2: especially after a round or maybe even two where if

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Speaker 2: he gets off to a slow start or has a

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Speaker 2: bad round, I think that's probably where the most value

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Speaker 2: is going to come in. But yeah, I definitely agree

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Speaker 2: this plus two to fifty plus two seventy five, I

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Speaker 2: think is the best number out there right now, probably

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Speaker 2: something that in my opinion, is very difficult to touch.

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Speaker 3: Spencer to bring you in on this angle. Tiger obviously

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Speaker 3: in the early two thousands when he was super human

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Speaker 3: and just running away from the field and was the

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Speaker 3: top rated golfer by a country mile. You could also

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Speaker 3: make an argument at that time, the rest of the

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Speaker 3: PGA wasn't as strong as it is today. Do you

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Speaker 3: think that Scotty deserves to be priced in this neighborhood

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Speaker 3: given the kind of competition and the players who could

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Speaker 3: turn it on and have a great four day stretch

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Speaker 3: and potentially win this thing and take it from him.

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Speaker 5: I mean, honestly, I don't think that the price is

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Speaker 5: that egregious. Now, I agree with what Kyle talked about, Like,

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Speaker 5: to me, two and a half to one, three to

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Speaker 5: one is still going to be a little bit too short.

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Speaker 5: We've seen historically where Scotty struggles the most is where

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Speaker 5: he gets these courses that he deems to be unfair in.

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Speaker 5: And if you look at Oakmont's specifically here for this example,

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Speaker 5: there is an argument to be made like there's five

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Speaker 5: inch thick rough and a lot of the misses that

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Speaker 5: are going to be two yards off the fairway might

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Speaker 5: put you right into that five inch thick stuffed where

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Speaker 5: if you miss twenty five yards and you go completely wayward, Like, yeah,

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Speaker 5: there's some really bad spots that you can get yourself in,

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Speaker 5: but a lot of that will be trampled down by

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Speaker 5: the patrons that are just there to watch the golf,

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Speaker 5: and that's the kind of golf that can sometimes just

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Speaker 5: create more volatility. And I think when we're talking about

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Speaker 5: volatility and a two and a half to one number

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Speaker 5: here with Scotty Scheffler, that's what makes it difficult. And

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna ask you this question very quickly, Michael, because

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Speaker 5: I do think it's an important discussion to be at

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Speaker 5: because we can talk about what is fair value and what.

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Speaker 1: Is not fair value.

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Speaker 5: But I think people hear that conversation and you ask

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Speaker 5: the question and we both have now given answers of

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Speaker 5: we are not going to bet Scotty shuffer. We have

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Speaker 5: viewed this as a tournament where we're going to try

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Speaker 5: to take him on. That, by no stretch of the imagination,

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Speaker 5: doesn't mean that both Kyle and I don't think Scotty

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Speaker 5: Scheffler is the most likely person to win this tournament.

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Speaker 5: Like if I gave you this example right now, Michael,

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Speaker 5: and say, let's just say, Matt Mitchell, he's go to

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Speaker 5: guy here at Action for all things production, and honestly,

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Speaker 5: when I was at Action, he was my go to

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Speaker 5: guy for everything that I did at the company. He

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Speaker 5: gives you, well, just I mean Matt's a ball, or

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Speaker 5: he gives you one hundred thousand dollars free role for

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Speaker 5: this tournament this week, he says, you got to put

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Speaker 5: all one hundred thousand on that on one player, and

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Speaker 5: the payout for that is going to be exactly one

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Speaker 5: hundred thousand dollars. I mean, there's no world, and I

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Speaker 5: don't want to lead the witness in this position, but

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Speaker 5: I assume there's no world with that sort of a

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Speaker 5: setup that you're not taking Scotty Shuffler.

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Speaker 4: Correct.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I agree, And as someone who wears many hats

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Speaker 3: here at Action Network, I also host the Payoff Pitch

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Speaker 3: podcast with Sean Zarrillo, and we get into it all

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Speaker 3: the time. When you bet a lot, and as you

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Speaker 3: guys do in golf, you're betting so many different angles

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Speaker 3: on so many different tournaments that the value proposition and

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Speaker 3: the expected return on your money on certain bets, you

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Speaker 3: got to spread out that risk over the course of

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Speaker 3: a season, literally thousands of bets. And it's the reason

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Speaker 3: why on a daily basis in Major League Baseball, we're

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Speaker 3: not just betting Scooball every time. We're not just betting

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Speaker 3: the best teams in baseball because you have to pay

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Speaker 3: a price or at least visa the market for let's

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Speaker 3: call it an average team on a regular night in

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Speaker 3: the BIGS. So I understand your point.

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Speaker 4: If you were to.

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Speaker 3: Give me a free role, I'm either going with Scotty

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Speaker 3: or I'm going with Bryson in this tournament. I just

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Speaker 3: I have this feeling it's going to be one of

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Speaker 3: the two of them. But if you put a gun

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Speaker 3: to my head and say I have to choose, how

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Speaker 3: could you choose against Scotty? Because, as I said, no

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Speaker 3: one comes in hotter and no one is better in

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Speaker 3: the will not defeat him self department, at least in

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Speaker 3: my opinion here in twenty twenty five, and this is

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Speaker 3: a tournament that is just begging at a course to

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Speaker 3: just eat people up and spit them out. You have

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Speaker 3: one hole where you make one mistake and all of

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Speaker 3: a sudden you have a double and it starts to snowball.

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Speaker 3: I want to move away from any golfers who potentially

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Speaker 3: have that on the menu, and Scotty has not shown that,

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Speaker 3: at least this season. Now, this perfectly transitions into one

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Speaker 3: question I had before we get into your top plays

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Speaker 3: here for Oakmont and the US Open, which is a

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Speaker 3: golfer's trending in the opposite direction, and that's Rory McElroy.

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Speaker 3: Ever since getting the career Grand Slam and winning the Masters,

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Speaker 3: he has just not seemed to be there in terms

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Speaker 3: of consistency, in terms of focus and even in his interviews.

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Speaker 3: And I know you don't want to put too much

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Speaker 3: stock in what people are saying off the course, but

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Speaker 3: it just does not seem by any metric that he

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Speaker 3: is locked in head into this tournament. Is their value

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Speaker 3: or I should frame it differently, Is there a price

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Speaker 3: point in which him missing the cut would start to

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Speaker 3: interest you?

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Speaker 4: Let me ask you first, Kyle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean in terms of the miss the cut

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Speaker 2: line there, I think that's sort of a spot where

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Speaker 2: for me where my model grades out Rory. There's definitely,

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Speaker 2: you know, trends that are allowing other players to sort

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Speaker 2: of compete with him or even you know, surpass him,

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Speaker 2: and where I sort of rank.

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Speaker 4: Him amongst the guys in this field.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, in terms of, you know, looking out for

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Speaker 2: someone to miss the cut, I do think in terms

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Speaker 2: of these guys up top, he sort of fits the

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Speaker 2: bill for somebody who has that volatility, right like sure,

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Speaker 2: we've seen Rory have the volatility work in his favor,

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Speaker 2: especially at the Masters, or you know, over the course

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Speaker 2: of his career where he has those those really really

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Speaker 2: high highs.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 2: But of these top three four guys, he's probably the

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Speaker 2: one that I think is most likely to know Falter here,

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Speaker 2: especially with the recent play. So yeah, I think amongst

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Speaker 2: these top three or four guys, he would probably be

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Speaker 2: the guy I would be looking at first in terms of,

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Speaker 2: you know, miss the cut prop here.

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Speaker 3: I believe you were saying it was consensus five to

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Speaker 3: two for him to miss the cut. Does that interest you, Spencer?

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Speaker 5: I don't know if I necessarily have a strong take

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Speaker 5: on this one way or the other. But the one

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Speaker 5: thing I want to say about Rory because I kind

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Speaker 5: of have been making this point from the very beginning

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Speaker 5: part of this season, and I understand, we have three

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Speaker 5: huge wins this year, Masters, Complete Secure Grand Slam, Players

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Speaker 5: Championship at and t at an elevated event. You had

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Speaker 5: all of those pieces together, and we got Rory into

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Speaker 5: this price zone to where I mean he was five

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Speaker 5: six to one to win some of these events. And

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Speaker 5: one of the arguments I kept making is if you

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Speaker 5: look at the statistical profile of Rory McElroy this year,

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Speaker 5: which is an elite profile. It's very similar to the

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Speaker 5: profile in twenty twenty four, but there are a few

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Speaker 5: glaring differences that are at least noteworthy to look at.

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Speaker 5: So you look this year plus one point four eight

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Speaker 5: five strokes gain per round, third on tour, behind Sepstraca,

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Speaker 5: very surprisingly second there Scotti Scheffler number one last year

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Speaker 5: plus one point four to one two was behind Xander,

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Speaker 5: behind Rory. The thing that that metric does not tell

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Speaker 5: is he is worse on his approach statistics. He is

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Speaker 5: worse around the green even as a leaders, He's been

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Speaker 5: off the tees about zero point one zero strokes per round,

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Speaker 5: worse off the tee than he's been And really a

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Speaker 5: lot of what this uptick has been seen from him

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Speaker 5: has come from the putter zero point five to one

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Speaker 5: to two strokes per round. That's versus zero point one

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Speaker 5: seven to three last year. So you had all of

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Speaker 5: that up, you don't quite get to this total. But

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Speaker 5: he's nearly a stroke and a half better per tournament

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Speaker 5: this season with the putter than he was last year,

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Speaker 5: and a lot of that bodes well. I do think

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Speaker 5: maybe for safety in this spot, like unfortunately what ended

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Speaker 5: up happening, because at the RBC Canadian Open, I thought

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Speaker 5: he was one of the worst values on the board.

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Speaker 1: I thought we had.

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Speaker 5: Reached this point to where entering this tournament, potentially here

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Speaker 5: at the US Open, forget the Misscup for a second,

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Speaker 5: I thought this was going to be the prime selloff

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Speaker 5: spot against Rory where all matchups were gonna make sense.

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Speaker 5: We've seen matchups in the space right now where John

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Speaker 5: Rahm is already out to minus one fifty against him,

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Speaker 5: like the market has reacted very heavi and I think

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Speaker 5: it's a correct version of where it's moving. Like for me,

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Speaker 5: Rory is more of this twelve to fifteen to one

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Speaker 5: player that he has moved to versus the six to

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Speaker 5: one price. And the other thing that I just want

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Speaker 5: to at least throw out there for this conversation is

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Speaker 5: forty plus professional wins. If you go and you look

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Speaker 5: how many of those wins have come in single digits,

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Speaker 5: and we can make the argument of how difficult this

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Speaker 5: course will actually play. He has zero victories that have

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Speaker 5: come inside of a single digit range, and a lot

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Speaker 5: of that stems from when Rory wins he catches fire.

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Speaker 5: There are tournaments where Rory has gotten to fourteen under

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Speaker 5: par where your next closest competitor is four under And

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Speaker 5: so maybe that's taking numbers and skewing them in the favor.

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Speaker 5: But like I do agree with both of you, at

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Speaker 5: least in the very vacuum situation of this answer. Like

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Speaker 5: of the big name contestants in this tournament, he is

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Speaker 5: my least favorite of the options he probably would have

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Speaker 5: to get into, like the twenty to one range plus

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Speaker 5: just with where my model views him for him to

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Speaker 5: be of value.

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Speaker 1: And it kind of goes back.

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Speaker 5: To what the Scotty example that I was trying to

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Speaker 5: bring up comes into play, Like I asked that analogy

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Speaker 5: and brought up that example with Scotty because you, Ansel

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Speaker 5: answered it perfectly, Michael Light. At the end of the day,

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Speaker 5: prices matter, Exposure to the board matters. Trying to find

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Speaker 5: value is the ultimate goal. So if there is not

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Speaker 5: value on Scotty, can we find value elsewhere? And if

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Speaker 5: there's not value on Rory, then let's move into a

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Speaker 5: different spot again. And that's how I built my model

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Speaker 5: this week. That's what my model told me, is that

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Speaker 5: there were values in other spots, and it doesn't mean

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Speaker 5: that I'm necessarily opposing Scotty if we move back to him.

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Speaker 5: It's just Kyle said it like get DFS, disposure to him,

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Speaker 5: get overweight in that area. There's different ways to play,

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Speaker 5: and it doesn't need to be at two and a

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Speaker 5: half to one.

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Speaker 3: We got all our negativity out of the beginning of

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Speaker 3: the pod. We kind of said, you know, the value

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Speaker 3: proposition doesn't make sense with Scotty or poking holes in

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Speaker 3: Rory's game coming in. Let's start talking about some of

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Speaker 3: the golfers that we're excited to bet. Hope Springs Eternal

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Speaker 3: here a few days before the first player tees off

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Speaker 3: at Oakmont. Give me some players and let's call it

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Speaker 3: the top to top ten to fifteen of this tournament

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Speaker 3: board that have interested you. I'll start with you, Spencer.

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Speaker 5: So I did an Action Network show for the Olympics

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Speaker 5: last year. I made a very similar argument to the

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Speaker 5: one I'm going to bring up here. Unfortunately, yes, we've

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Speaker 5: had this Scotty Shuffler discussion of him potentially not necessarily

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Speaker 5: winning at that price, and Scotty won the Olympics at

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Speaker 5: three to one. But what I talked about on that

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Speaker 5: show was how John Rahm was the forgotten star of

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Speaker 5: that field in that particular tournament. You could grab him

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Speaker 5: at sixteen to one. That's a three to one. As

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Speaker 5: I talked about on Scotty, it was seven to one

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Speaker 5: totals on Xander and Rory and at the end of

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Speaker 5: the day, a loss is gonna end up being a loss.

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Speaker 5: But if you look at that tournament and the way

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Speaker 5: it played out, and Kyle even talked about this at

401
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Speaker 5: the PGA Championship where he was on Ram and he

402
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Speaker 5: definitely was ahead of the market curve that we have

403
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Speaker 5: seen take place here. Rom had the medal around his neck.

404
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Speaker 5: You could argue yes at the Olympics, but he even

405
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Speaker 5: was a very big front runner there entering the back

406
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Speaker 5: nine at the PGA Championship in it just did not

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Speaker 5: come together for him. Scotty clutched up, Rom missed a

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Speaker 5: couple putts. But I think a lot of those sentiments

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Speaker 5: are going to hold true here when we handicap the

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Speaker 5: board for the US Open. Look at Rom specifically, he's

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Speaker 5: fallen into this territory over the last few years of

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Speaker 5: I think he's viewed as a golfer that is beneath

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Speaker 5: Bryson Deshamba, And maybe that is fair when you consider Bryson,

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Speaker 5: He's put himself in the contention to win almost every

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Speaker 5: major outside of last year's Open Championship. But more of

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Speaker 5: what my model seems to be looking at is there

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Speaker 5: is this world of past Ram's success that we have

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Speaker 5: started to see this year, and then the current form

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Speaker 5: of the statistical profile that is beginning to mix in

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Speaker 5: for a golfer who when I ran this tournament, he

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Speaker 5: was the second highest win equity choice that I had

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Speaker 5: on the board. That was a total that marginally squeaked

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Speaker 5: past the Shamble. They were very similar to one another,

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Speaker 5: not much of a difference, But when one guy opened

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Speaker 5: at fourteen to one, you're going to be looking more

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Speaker 5: in that twelve to one range now, and Deshamble's more

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Speaker 5: seven or eight to one on the value for me

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Speaker 5: stood more with John Rahman. I think at the end

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Speaker 5: of the day, the overall success from him is going

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Speaker 5: to stem from.

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Speaker 1: His ability to regain.

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Speaker 5: That high level of driving that we used to see

433
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Speaker 5: from him week in and week out on the PGA Tour.

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Speaker 5: When he won the US Open in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 5: he was the number one projected greater in my model

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Speaker 5: for strokes gained off the tee that week. You're not

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00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 5: going to necessarily get that purely when using major championship

438
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 5: form over the last season or two if.

439
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 1: You're running numbers.

440
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 5: But there are a lot of those metrics that I

441
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:33,959
Speaker 5: talked about to where if we look at the live production,

442
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 5: you look at the domination of what he put together

443
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 5: at Quell Hollow off the tee. To me, that's kind

444
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 5: of an indication of a driver that's finally regained form

445
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 5: and if that ends up being the case, like not

446
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 5: to go back to the Rory discussion, but if we're

447
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,680
Speaker 5: looking at Rom versus Rory one versus one, I think

448
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 5: Rom makes so much more sense to go in that

449
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 5: direction at the top of the board than a name

450
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 5: like Rory would.

451
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 1: There's two other names that I took.

452
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,959
Speaker 5: This week in that we'll call it like sub forty

453
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 5: to one range. I took Joaquim Neeman at thirty five

454
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 5: to one on Monday. We've seen that dip more into

455
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,159
Speaker 5: the low thirties at this point.

456
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 1: But one of the.

457
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 5: Arguments that everybody wants to make with Neman is this

458
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 5: lack of major championship success and I say it every

459
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 5: single time. It's a very lazy narrative that comes into play.

460
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 5: And look, I'm not gonna sit here. I'm not gonna

461
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 5: give him a ton of credit for back touring a

462
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,159
Speaker 5: top ten at the PGA Championship when he shot himself

463
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 5: out of this tournament after day one. Still, the note

464
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 5: that I at least want to add to that is

465
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 5: performances are meant to grow over time. And I'm kind

466
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 5: of under this belief that we would view Meeman in

467
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 5: a very similar light as we view Xander Shoftley before

468
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,360
Speaker 5: he won his first two major titles last season, if

469
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 5: he hadn't lived left for Live, and you know, instead

470
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 5: we kind of view him in this same We'll call

471
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 5: it like a darkness here where all those negative viewpoints

472
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 5: of not winning or not competing when it.

473
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 1: Matters most comes into play.

474
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 5: But I think you can make a really strong argument

475
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 5: here that is a legitimate top five win equity golfer

476
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,199
Speaker 5: in this tournament, and it's a name because of that

477
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 5: lack of major championship pedigree has pushed too far into

478
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 5: this thirty to one range. And then the last golfer

479
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 5: I'll talk about for this section, I mean I would

480
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 5: be very stingy with how much you want to allocate

481
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 5: funds to this golfer over the course of a season.

482
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 5: It's not a name that I back very often, but

483
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 5: I did take Tommy Fleetwood at forty to one. I

484
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 5: thought this was a very similar route. If you look

485
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 5: at Matthew Fitzpatrick's profile when he won the twenty twenty

486
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 5: two Open US Open, it's a very comparable route here

487
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 5: for Tommy Fleetwood.

488
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 1: When we look at.

489
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 5: Price trending form, all of that that comes together, and

490
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 5: when I took all the metrics and I graded them

491
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 5: all together, my movel ranked Fleetwood next to Rom and

492
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 5: Xander as one of only three players to crack the

493
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 5: top thirty for all four of the Strokes King categories

494
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 5: that I ran. You include that to adding an additional

495
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 5: return for weighted scrambling. Like we've talked about why scrambling matters,

496
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 5: the ability to salvage par from within thirty yards is

497
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 5: going to come to play over and over again. So

498
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 5: I made this argument for Xander. It feels like for

499
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 5: years before he finally got himself across the finish line.

500
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,919
Speaker 5: But I've often said that close calls are probably as

501
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 5: much bad luck as they are bad play over extended attempts.

502
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 5: So you know, none of that necessarily means that Fleetwood

503
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 5: this is going to be the time that he gets

504
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,239
Speaker 5: himself over the finish line. But I do think that

505
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 5: there is something to be said about a course that

506
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 5: is more difficult that during this go around on Sunday,

507
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 5: it may present the Fleetwoods of the world a little

508
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 5: bit more upside than you normally would get.

509
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, transitioning to that final point for your picks here, Kyle,

510
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 3: in terms of players at the top of the board,

511
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 3: let's call it the PGA Top twenty rankings right now,

512
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 3: golfers that have been positively impacted from an odds perspective

513
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,199
Speaker 3: by Scheffler going off at such short odds when you

514
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 3: looked at it where there's certain numbers and thresholds that

515
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 3: you needed to see and then you were pleasantly surprised

516
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: when these numbers started to pop it earlier in the week.

517
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely.

518
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I think you know, we touched on this

519
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 2: in the PGA Championship breakdown as well. There was a

520
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 2: couple of guys sort of you know, two or three

521
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 2: guys taking so much of that one equity out to

522
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: where that that typical top tier of guys that we're

523
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 2: talking about, guys like John Rahm, even even the Zanders

524
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 2: of the world, where these are like, you know, bone

525
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 2: to fide top ten golfers who are seeing value because

526
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 2: you have scottis Scheffer taking up so much of that

527
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 2: one equity this week and you know, just to piggyback

528
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 2: off that play. I mean, We're gonna sound like a

529
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: broken record here, but I'm also backing Ram and Nieman

530
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 2: this week again. So uh, you know, like I mentioned

531
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 2: for the PGA Championship, I backed him John Rahm that

532
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 2: that week as well, had the T eight finish, I

533
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 2: was expecting more out of him. Obviously he kind of

534
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: had that blow up of the last three four holes there.

535
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 2: But you know, Ram is a guy who I just

536
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 2: continue to see value on here based on his you know,

537
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: ability to ball strike with the best of the world.

538
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 2: And I think when you look at guys, you when

539
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: you're talking about outright betting, I think volatility is often viewed,

540
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,199
Speaker 2: you know, with a you know, a downside, right, But

541
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 2: you know, in real reality, I like to chase volatility

542
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 2: because when you have that volatiley work in your favor,

543
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 2: that's when you can compete with the Scottish shufflers and

544
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 2: the bright since of the world. So I think, rom sure,

545
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 2: he definitely has you know, a wider range of outcomes,

546
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 2: but I think that actually benefits him in the outright

547
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 2: market here. So I like the value that I'm seeing

548
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 2: on John Rahm. And he's also been a guy who

549
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 2: has you know, played very well in majors, finishing T

550
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 2: fourteen or better in seven of his last eleven majors.

551
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 2: So I know, you know, we know the upside is

552
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 2: you know, good enough to compete and be in contention

553
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 2: in these majors. We know he has the game to

554
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 2: win a US Open type event as he won he

555
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 2: was Opening in twenty twenty one, ranks as third in

556
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 2: total strokes gain to my model, and second as the

557
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 2: best off the te player, third and T degree in play.

558
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 2: So checking all the boxes for someone who has the

559
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 2: ability to win a US Open. So back in John

560
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 2: Ram again, look at it at the PGA, and you

561
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: know backing.

562
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 4: Demon as well. So me and Spencer are in lockstep here.

563
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 2: Jakue Deeman, I mean, if if you guys have been

564
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 2: following any of my PJA plays for any amount of time,

565
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: I am. I would like to say I'm one of

566
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 2: the biggest Jacke demon stands out there. I mean, he's

567
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,959
Speaker 2: the guy if I bet on a ton. Obviously, when

568
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 2: he left for Live, I was pretty disappointed, but you know,

569
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: seeing him as a guy who grades out well, you know,

570
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 2: very unsurprising.

571
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 4: He grades out as the fourth best.

572
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 2: Golfer in my model for me this week, and I

573
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 2: truly believe he has a game built to win in majors.

574
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 2: And although Expenser alluded to we haven't really seen it.

575
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 2: And I think I could not agree more when he

576
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: says the term lazy narrative. I mean we've seen that

577
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 2: time and time again, especially in the golf world where

578
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 2: you know, the one I like to think back to

579
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 2: was you know, even Tony Finow not being able to win,

580
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: Rory McRoy not being able to close out on Sundays.

581
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 2: Just so many times people just see things on TV

582
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 2: and obviously, you know, emotions can you know, impact a

583
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 2: lot of reactions to things, especially in the golf world

584
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 2: where things can be so you know, cut and dry

585
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 2: and so zero to one hundred. And I think that's

586
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 2: something that even sort of benefits from in the in

587
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: the market where we get a little bit of a discount,

588
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: But when you look at just what he puts in

589
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 2: on paper from a resume standpoint, he's by far a

590
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 2: top ten ball striker in this field, and more importantly,

591
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: he's top five in stroke skin approach of over of

592
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 2: shots of over two hundred yards, which I think is

593
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 2: going to be a crucial point for me this week.

594
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: So that's a huge, uh you know, standing point there, anmon,

595
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 2: But I think he actually benefits and a course like

596
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 2: this that I do think is going to eat the

597
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 2: field alive, because the one weakness that we've seen with

598
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 2: Neiman in these majors is he sort of fails to

599
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 2: convert on Birdie's sore when we're seeing scores be a

600
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 2: little bit lower. At times, he tends to fall behind

601
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: a little bit. But I think on a course where

602
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 2: you know Berdi's are going to be at an extreme premium,

603
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 2: I think it's actually a benefit a guy like Jaucke Neman,

604
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 2: who is a very stable golfer, can go out and

605
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 2: make make pars with the best of them. So I

606
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 2: do think Nimen benefits from this sort of event here

607
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 2: at Oakmont and in the US Open, And I love

608
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: the number here at thirty five to one on drafting.

609
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 2: I think it's down to thirty to one now, but

610
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 2: love the Niemen number and the last guy all throughout

611
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: there in the top fifteen or so on odds for

612
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 2: me is Shane Lowry. I think he's sort of a

613
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 2: guy who is sort of doesn't fit the bill that

614
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 2: the Neemens and the ROMs do with that he can

615
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 2: you know, smash the ball a million miles down there.

616
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: But if we do see an event where you know,

617
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 2: accuracy is key, we're staying out of trouble and hitting

618
00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 2: fairways is truly, you know, the ultimate the key here,

619
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 2: I think Lowry could benefit there. And again I touched

620
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: on the approach buckets there for Nieman, but Lowry, while

621
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 2: he doesn't have the distance off the tee ranking outside

622
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 2: the top one hundred, he's in the top eleven in

623
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 2: terms of good shot percentage on approach shots of over

624
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 2: two hundred yards, so I do think that weakness can

625
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 2: sort of be counteracted by his elite long iron play.

626
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 2: He's top twenty in driving accuracy, so I do think

627
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: he's able to hit fairways, avoid trouble and obviously we've

628
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: seen Shane Lowry be a guy who can pull that

629
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 2: the rabbit out of the hat and have those magic

630
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 2: around the greens as well.

631
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 4: Also, I think his.

632
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 2: Long iron play, you know, I think a big thing

633
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 2: for Lowry is as well. He also hasn't really shown

634
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 2: that acumen to finish full four full rounds of major events.

635
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 2: But again I still think that he's a guy who

636
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 2: has the game to sort of win these these tougher

637
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: events and compete at these difficult courses. And we've seen

638
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: him do so a difficult courses over the course of

639
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 2: the past couple of years on the PGA Tour. So

640
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 2: I like Lowry here at fifty to one as well.

641
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 3: All Right, it's clear we are now a Niemen official podcast,

642
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 3: but let's expand our cheer for a potential winner into

643
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 3: the mid tier and long shot category. Spencer which golfers

644
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 3: really piqued your interests, And this is what is special

645
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,959
Speaker 3: about betting on golfer the you know, casuals who are

646
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 3: only betting the majors out there. This is the dream.

647
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 3: You want to hit the eighty, the one hundred to

648
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 3: one and to really make your entire summer in terms

649
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 3: of you know, being able to build up your bank

650
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 3: roll before the NFL season starts, this is what they're

651
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 3: looking for. So if you're listening, turn up the volume

652
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 3: a little bit as Spencer walks through some of his

653
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 3: longer shot plays.

654
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 5: I mean, I would say, like just to double down

655
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 5: on that thought, Michael, Like, probably one of the crowning

656
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 5: jewel moments that I've had in this space is when

657
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 5: I took Clark to win the US Open a couple

658
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 5: of years ago at one hundred to one. So, like,

659
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 5: it's difficult to get across the finish line in these majors.

660
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: But like, here's the.

661
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 5: Stat that I'd at least like to throw out there

662
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 5: when we're looking at the US Open specifically. So take

663
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 5: the last sixteen winners of this tournament, just a little

664
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 5: bit under fifty percent of those names when they won

665
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 5: the US Open. To that answer to where we are

666
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 5: now have only captured one major. So that's names like

667
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 5: Web Simpson, Lucas Glover. Those are maybe more so the

668
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 5: Web Simpson example there, where those are like the poster

669
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 5: returns for these golfers that are we'll call them top

670
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 5: twenty five, top thirty, top forty golfers in the world,

671
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 5: but they enter the week as these triple digit marks

672
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 5: with call it like no real expectation to actually win this,

673
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 5: to get across the finish line, but a ranking that

674
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 5: is a lot better.

675
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: Than you would think they should be for where it

676
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: would be.

677
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 5: So there are a lot of names, like I know

678
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 5: Keegan has a major, but like we're just talking about

679
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 5: names here that are these triple digit targets. And when

680
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 5: I start with rom and Nieman in Fleetwood, there's only

681
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 5: so many directions I can go. I don't like over

682
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 5: exposing my card, but I think that there are probably

683
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 5: like five six seven names like just at the top

684
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 5: of my head, pass the name that I'm actually gonna

685
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 5: give that I bet this week that I considered very

686
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 5: heavily in this triple digit zone.

687
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 1: And you know, if you want to bet them, you

688
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: have extra room on the card.

689
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 5: Like Kegan Bradley, Daniel Berger, Rob Ibert McIntyre, Taylor Pendrith,

690
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 5: Maverick McNeely. All of those names fit kind of that

691
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 5: narrative of what I'm talking about in some direction. But

692
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 5: for the sake of this discussion, I ended up taking

693
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 5: Harris English at one hundred to one. Look at the

694
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 5: way that English has played these US Open tests, in

695
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 5: the past. You'll see he's been inside the top eight

696
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 5: and three of his last five attempts. The statistical profile

697
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 5: is also going to tell a very similar story. And

698
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 5: what I am most intrigued about that return is my

699
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 5: model is not one that necessarily loves English in a

700
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 5: lot of these spots.

701
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: So when you get these.

702
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 5: Outlier sort of returns, I guess is the way that

703
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 5: I would call it with English to where all of

704
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 5: a sudden he's, you know, a top twenty projected win

705
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 5: equity player on the board, and he's a name that

706
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 5: should be sub one hundred to one like that usually

707
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 5: means something to me.

708
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: And the reason why that return came into play.

709
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 5: Is he created top fifteen for expected strokes gaining total

710
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 5: in my model, he was also inside of that top

711
00:30:55,920 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 5: fifteen category for weighted scrambling and then projected driving plus putting,

712
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 5: which was kind of the interesting return there, And maybe

713
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 5: it shouldn't be because I talked about it at the beginning.

714
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 5: I looked at how somebody could either get distance, which

715
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 5: is not gonna be the English game, or provide accuracy,

716
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 5: which is gonna be more of what he provides. And

717
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 5: I also looked at similar tests that have thick rough

718
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 5: these more narrow fairways, and there is a reason why,

719
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 5: like Olkamont is one of your prototypical through and through

720
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 5: us open sort of tests where it's gonna demand some

721
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 5: sort of driving acumen off the tee. Now we can

722
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 5: argue whether that's distance or accuracy that plays the bigger account,

723
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 5: but you're gonna need to be a quality driver of

724
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 5: the ball. And I talked about it when talking about

725
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 5: this venue and the defense of the venue. The putting

726
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 5: is what really matters here. There's it's gonna be quick

727
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 5: greens I think of, They're almost gonna be like glass

728
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 5: Top if this get ends up getting baked out and

729
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 5: doesn't get wet. And English at these difficult courses has

730
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 5: always seemed to find success. So you're asking for a

731
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 5: lot for him to be able to win. But I

732
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 5: kind of view this and even any of those names,

733
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 5: if you have other abilities to throw extra darts at

734
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 5: this board, there is an outlook at this tournament to

735
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 5: where if this gets volatile enough, you can find a

736
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 5: Maverick McNeely, a Daniel Berger, a Harris English one of

737
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 5: these names that ends up winning this tournament. So I'm

738
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 5: gonna go with Harris English for this discussion. But I

739
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 5: kind of like everybody that I threw out there.

740
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 3: Kyle, any names that potentially are diamonds in the rough

741
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 3: here that you could turn into not necessarily a winner,

742
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: I mean that's what we're all going for, and you're

743
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 3: betting the outrights, but obviously it gives you great hedge

744
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 3: potential if you have a leader after thirty six holes

745
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: that's one hundred and twenty five to one. It gives

746
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: a host of possibilities to be able to extract some

747
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 3: value from a ticket like that. So anything in that

748
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 3: one hundred to one neighbor neighborhood that's you know, sparked

749
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 3: your interest.

750
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Spencer broke it down perfectly. When you

751
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: know it's difficult to find a winner, especially in evently

752
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: this down here. But there are a couple of names

753
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 2: that you know, if you are looking to sprinkle on.

754
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 2: He mentioned English love that call there. Burger is a

755
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 2: guy who I have a sprinkle there. But there's two

756
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 2: names that really stand out for me that I think

757
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: have a lot of value based on my model, and

758
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 2: the best value on an outright bet in my model

759
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 2: this week is Keegan Bradley and I think that's basically

760
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: just strictly because of you know, the the one hundred

761
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 2: and one odds that you that we found in him

762
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 2: early in the week. I think he's down to ninety

763
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,479
Speaker 2: to one now on draftings, but early in the week

764
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 2: nobody had better value based on where he projected in

765
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 2: my model, I believe I had him as the eleventh

766
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 2: highest win equity player in this field, which seems like

767
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 2: a very aggressive number for Keith and Bradley. But when

768
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,239
Speaker 2: you look at some of the things that we've been

769
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 2: talking about so far on the show, you know, Spencer

770
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 2: mentioned the intriguing combination of distance and accuracy and so

771
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 2: far in this field in my model on driving accuracy

772
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 2: and driving distance, so only two players in this field

773
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: inside the top forty in both of those categories. Keegan

774
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 2: Bradley leads both of those categories. They're in the top forty.

775
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 2: Him and Tero Latten are they want to inside the

776
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 2: top forty. So love Bradley's numbers here. Obviously, when you

777
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 2: talk about Keegan Bradley and his struggles, you got to

778
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: look at the putting greens, right. We touched on how

779
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 2: difficult it's going to be on the greens here, But

780
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: I do think in a world where it's difficult for

781
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 2: everybody and everybody's going to struggle putting, that sort of

782
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 2: mitigates some of the risks that you have with the

783
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 2: weakness of Keeing and Bradley on the greens. And he's

784
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 2: also a guy who again volatility. We've seen him pop

785
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 2: with the putter right at Mierfield, we saw him gain

786
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: strokes putting. He had a T seven finished there at

787
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 2: the API. He popped with a good putting week T

788
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 2: five at the Players, also gained strokes putting at a

789
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 2: T twenty there. So when he does perform well on

790
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 2: the greens, or when he's at least not losing badly

791
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 2: on the greens, we all know Kegan Bradley is a

792
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 2: guy who can ball strike with the best of them,

793
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 2: and I do think his elite combination of distance and

794
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 2: accuracy will allow him to have some of those weaknesses

795
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 2: on the greens sort of, you know, I guess come

796
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 2: out to a net positive for him with.

797
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 4: His ball striking there.

798
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: He grades out as a top ten T de Green

799
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 2: player in my model twelfth in strokes gain totally my

800
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 2: mixed strokes game model. So love King and Bradley this

801
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 2: week at one hundred to one. I believe it's ninety

802
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:03,919
Speaker 2: to one now. And then the last guy I'll mention

803
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 2: again another guy who definitely does not benefit from the

804
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: distance off the tee, but he's been playing extremely well,

805
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: Ben Griffin, kind of right in the hot hand here

806
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 2: at seventy five to one.

807
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 4: Now.

808
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 2: Not many golfers playing better than Ben Griffin right now.

809
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 2: Finished T eight at the PGA. But more importantly what

810
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,760
Speaker 2: I saw with his second place finish at the Memorial,

811
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 2: So then I think can actually translate well, here you

812
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: a Memorial at Mierfield, also of course with difficult rough

813
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 2: and difficult greens. Ben Griffin played very well at that course.

814
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 2: But more importantly, again a guy who does not benefit

815
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 2: from the distance. He has a strong putter, but more

816
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: importantly he ranks inside the top twelve and strokes gained

817
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 2: approach on shots of two hundred plus yards, which is

818
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,280
Speaker 2: what I'm looking at when I'm trying to find players

819
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 2: who might not necessarily have the distance, but will able

820
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: to be able to sort of benefit from the accuracy.

821
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 2: So if you don't have the distance and the accuracy,

822
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 2: I'm looking for a guy who can hit those long

823
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 2: irons extremely close and gain strokes on those longer approach shots,

824
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 2: which I think it's going to be very crucially. I

825
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 2: mean we're going to see some Part three is give

826
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: these guys absolute health. So I do think Ben Gribbin's

827
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:05,880
Speaker 2: a guy who can definitely play himself into some positive

828
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 2: strokes there with those long iron a pro shots.

829
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 3: Underdog is one of the best places to make picks

830
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,279
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831
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843
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844
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860
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Speaker 3: All right, guys, you have walked through just you know

861
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 3: a host of golfers who potentially win this tournament, assuming

862
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 3: that Scotty doesn't run away with it. But this is

863
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 3: an opportunity to throw in the best of the rest.

864
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 3: This is your top tens. You're making the cuts, your

865
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 3: head to heads, you know, potentially best European golfer, anything

866
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 3: under the sun in terms of an exotic or a

867
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 3: specialized market that you enjoyed leading up to this and

868
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 3: you just couldn't resist pulling the trigger on. I'll start

869
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: with you, Kyle.

870
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of matchup plays I like. I like

871
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 2: Walkingneman over Tommy Fleewood minus one ten. I also like

872
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 2: Xander over Ludwig at minus one twenty five. And then

873
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 2: some guys who I have some sprinkles on and some outrights,

874
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 2: but mainly guys I'm looking in the top twenty and

875
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 2: top forty markets, Daniel Berger, Harris English, Ox, Shabatia, and

876
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 2: I like Chris got her up to make the cut

877
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 2: this week.

878
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,240
Speaker 3: How about you, Spencer? What else is on your card

879
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 3: that just can't wait to talk about it?

880
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 5: I mean it feels like Kyle and I give very

881
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 5: similar answers throughout these first two shows that we've done.

882
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 5: So I looked at the main cut, miss cut market

883
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 5: and the five best names value wise to make the cut,

884
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 5: and I only gave two of them. But I will

885
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 5: give who the best five were according to their number.

886
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 5: Chris got her up was the best value that I

887
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 5: had on the board to make the cup when he

888
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 5: was plus one twenty. Bud Cawley was second, Matthew McCarty third,

889
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 5: Sam Stevens fourth, Max Grazerman fifth.

890
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: So what I ended up.

891
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 5: Doing, and you know we're always playing this game. When

892
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 5: we record shows deeper into the week, we're numbers move,

893
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 5: I ended up betting Bud Cawley in a matchup over

894
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 5: Gary Woodland. I don't know how usable that is for

895
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 5: anybody listening at this point. I think it's out to

896
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 5: the minus one fifty minus one sixty sort of arrange.

897
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 5: Unfortunately I got it in the minus one twenty, so

898
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 5: it's a bit of a value difference there. But for

899
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 5: head to head matchups just in general, I was trying

900
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 5: to find some of these past champions, the Gary Woodlands

901
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 5: of the world, the Justin Roses names that I could

902
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 5: take on where I think there's more public perception value

903
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 5: than we actually have for them in this tournament. So

904
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 5: those are options that I'm looking to take on. And

905
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 5: then just to add to that make cut list, I

906
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 5: end up using my exposure for CALLI over Woodland, but

907
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 5: I took Chris Gottter up plus one twenty and then

908
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 5: I took Matthew McCarty to make the cut at plus

909
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 5: one ten.

910
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 3: Thanks listening to our Best Best episode for the twenty

911
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 3: twenty five US Open at Oakmont. If you haven't, be

912
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,439
Speaker 3: sure to check out Stucky and Raven's exhaust of four

913
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 3: part preview at AFC and NFC win totals from earlier

914
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 3: this week. You can check it out right here on

915
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 3: the same podcast feed, and of course a special thanks

916
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 3: to our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy. Best of luck with all

917
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 3: your bets and we'll see here next time at the

918
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast.

919
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

920
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,240
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

921
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

922
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler