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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. This year,

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Speaker 2: voters around the world have the ability to affect markets, countries,

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Speaker 2: and whole economies like never before, so we've created this

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Speaker 2: series to help you make sense of it all. I'm

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Speaker 2: Stephanie Flanders.

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Speaker 3: I'm made Room Woodridge, and I'm alegra Stratton.

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Speaker 2: So I think I lost track at some point, but

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Speaker 2: I think our last two episodes were on the ground

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Speaker 2: in the UK and France on the day after very

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Speaker 2: different elections, two countries where garnering around a third of

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Speaker 2: the vote produced very different outcomes for Sirkir Starmer's Labor

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Speaker 2: Party and Marine Le Penz Rassan Lemont National. France has

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Speaker 2: been a mess since then, as predicted, but the new

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Speaker 2: UK government has been a hive of active In the

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Speaker 2: lead up to the vote, we said there was no

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Speaker 2: options for anybody. Everything was locked in. The economic situation

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Speaker 2: was terrible, and suddenly it feels like horizons are opening up.

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Speaker 2: But we're going to ignore all that because the focus

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Speaker 2: hasn't It has irrevocably shifted in the last few days.

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Speaker 3: Well, we've had a failed assassination to attempt on Donald Trump,

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Speaker 3: which was an extraordinary piece of news. We've had what

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Speaker 3: looks as though it was a failed attempt to ease

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Speaker 3: Biden out of the nomination. So Biden looks as though

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Speaker 3: he will be the nominee, increasingly as though he will

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Speaker 3: be the nominee. And now we've got the Republican Convention

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Speaker 3: with all the rasmatas entails.

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Speaker 1: You're talking about failed attempts, but you haven't included the

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Speaker 1: euros for England. I didn't want about that, but it

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Speaker 1: wasn't It is interesting. I looked at that my news

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Speaker 1: feed this morning and a British government story was sort

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Speaker 1: of item number seven. And given we've had what are

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Speaker 1: we what are we like? Ten days in now maybe

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Speaker 1: two weeks into the new government, that is amazing.

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Speaker 2: It's been very striking in President Trump is named Senator

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Speaker 2: JD Vance as his running mate in November. So not

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Speaker 2: someone who would necessarily be reaching out to new potential

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Speaker 2: Republican voters very much, someone who is if not a

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Speaker 2: mini Meed, then someone someone who certainly is can follow

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Speaker 2: the Maga tradition. And we've also seen sort of struck

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Speaker 2: by some sympathetic business leaders, including Elon Musk and Bill

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Speaker 2: Lackman now taking the excuse to publicly throw their support

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Speaker 2: behind Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and I think that made partly partly because it

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Speaker 3: does look as Joe Biden and the Democrats are fading,

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Speaker 3: and you will always back a winner if you're a

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Speaker 3: sensible business person. But I think there's more to it

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Speaker 3: than that. Both both Musk and Atmen are very sensitive

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Speaker 3: on the culture wars issue. They're very angry about what's

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Speaker 3: happened to the left and the wokification of the left,

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Speaker 3: and quite frankly, they want, you know, a guy who's

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Speaker 3: going to probably low their taxes and low their corporate taxes.

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Speaker 1: But from the perspectives of the labor government. David Lammy,

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Speaker 1: who's the Foreign Secretory, has been very busy in the

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Speaker 1: six months before the election making friends with the guests

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk to you later, Elbridge, Colby, but

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Speaker 1: also jd Vance, So he has met jd Vance this morning,

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Speaker 1: this morning or yesterday. It was slightly troubled that relationship

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Speaker 1: when a footage emerged of jd Vance seeming to mock

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Speaker 1: the UK's new government. I don't know the extent to

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Speaker 1: which we should take the video that seriously whether or

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Speaker 1: not it was off the cuff or a joke, but

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Speaker 1: I think it probably does speak to some kind of

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Speaker 1: beneath the surface of an apparently very strong relationship between

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Speaker 1: the labor government and people in the Trump team. Some ambiguity.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so okay. So in a week where it does

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Speaker 2: seem as though Donald Trump has more momentum than ever,

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Speaker 2: certainly the Republicans have more momentum than ever going into November,

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Speaker 2: we wanted to take a look at what a second

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Speaker 2: Trump administration could look like, both domestically and internationally, and

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Speaker 2: how his policies could shape market and the world economy.

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Speaker 2: To provide an international perspective, we'll speak with Elbridge Colby,

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Speaker 2: who's a former member of the first Trump administration and

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Speaker 2: a co founder and principle of the Maratha Initiative, nonprofit

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Speaker 2: focused on national security issues, and later we're also going

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Speaker 2: to have a conversation about the lessons for Republicans in

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Speaker 2: the Conservative's demise in the UK with Bloomberg editor in

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Speaker 2: chief John Micklethwaite. But first we're going to go to

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Speaker 2: our on the ground voice for the week, senior reporter

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Speaker 2: Nancy Cook, who joins us from where Else the Republican

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Speaker 2: National Convention in Milwaukee. Nancy, I think you've had the

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Speaker 2: pleasure of attending a few Republican National conventions. But from

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Speaker 2: those of us who we certainly will have heard Night

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Speaker 2: one and night two, seen some of the pageantry there,

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Speaker 2: the feeling triumphant return of Donald Trump. But how's it

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Speaker 2: felt felt for you?

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Speaker 4: Well, I would say this security is very, very tight

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Speaker 4: after the assassination attempt, which is no surprise. I mean

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Speaker 4: it is like Milwaukee, Wisconsin is like a fortress, the

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Speaker 4: downtown area. And then you know, I was on the

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Speaker 4: mention floor on Monday night when Trump appeared in public

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Speaker 4: for the first time after he was shot at, and

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Speaker 4: I was.

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Speaker 1: Just with his bandage.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you could see his big white bandage on his ear.

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Speaker 4: He didn't actually speak, but he sat through the last

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Speaker 4: hour or so of the programming, and you know, he

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Speaker 4: still is just so popular among Republican primary voters. I

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Speaker 4: mean you could just see it was almost like God

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Speaker 4: had shown up there. People sort of had guessed that

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Speaker 4: he was coming, So people were starting to line up

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Speaker 4: at the entrance where they knew he was going to

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Speaker 4: walk in about an hour ahead of time. There was

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Speaker 4: like a huge crunch of people, similar to the indictment

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Speaker 4: or the two impeachments. You know, him getting shot really

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Speaker 4: just galvanized the republic his Republican primary voters even more,

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Speaker 4: and they're sort of even more amped up and excited

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Speaker 4: about his candidacy.

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Speaker 1: Now it's a different feeling than Nancy. It does feel different,

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Speaker 1: does it.

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Speaker 4: It feels different. And it also just feels like this

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Speaker 4: is a moment when both parties in the US, Democrats

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Speaker 4: and Republicans are really showing a lot of sympathy for him,

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Speaker 4: and people feel horrible about what happened, and I think

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Speaker 4: his campaign is really going to try to capitalize on

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Speaker 4: that by bringing new voters into the Republican tent. You know,

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Speaker 4: white suburban women who they've had problems with, or you know,

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Speaker 4: black men who they've been trying to court, or Hispanic men.

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Speaker 4: You know, they're really trying to take this moment to

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Speaker 4: a portray the Republican Party as sort of a party

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Speaker 4: for all people. And so I think the tone of

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Speaker 4: the convention moving forward is going to be a bit

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Speaker 4: different than it would have been a week ago, when

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Speaker 4: it just would have been you know, very anti Biden

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Speaker 4: and very dark.

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Speaker 3: Do you get the sense that these are people who

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Speaker 3: are pretty confident of winning in November.

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Speaker 4: I think the Trump people are extremely confident of winning

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Speaker 4: in November. And you know, you saw with the selection

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Speaker 4: of Senator JD. Vance as the vice presidential pick, that's

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Speaker 4: really an effort on their part to lock up the

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Speaker 4: three states that really help win the election, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

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Speaker 4: and Michigan. But I mean, the Trump people that I

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Speaker 4: talk to you feel like at this point there's so

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Speaker 4: many paths to victory to them, not just through like

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Speaker 4: sort of the eight swing states, but that they could

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Speaker 4: even expand the map and turn states that have not

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Speaker 4: voted Republican in the past to Republicans. So they're looking

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Speaker 4: now at could they get New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota. I mean,

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Speaker 4: the people I talked to think that there's going to

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Speaker 4: be a huge electoral blowout for Republicans in November now,

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Speaker 4: both given the assassination attempt, Trump's popularity with his base

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Speaker 4: and also just concerns about Biden's age. But they are

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Speaker 4: just anticipating potentially huge electoral win and also that gives

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Speaker 4: them a ton of advantages with down ballot races. The

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Speaker 4: Senate is really up for grabs and the House too.

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Speaker 2: I mean that is so interesting though, because of course,

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Speaker 2: and you now start talking about enormous coattails, as they say,

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Speaker 2: for the presidents bringing along with him whoever in a

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Speaker 2: given place, whoever is the person or the congressional candidate.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that is the exact opposite of twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: two exactly. See when you were going We went into

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Speaker 2: the midterms, and actually it felt very much as though

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Speaker 2: the candidates who were closest to Trump were the ones

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Speaker 2: who did worse that in that surprisingly positive result for Democrats.

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Speaker 2: So it's such a short time that this has changed.

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Speaker 4: I think part of it, though, is also the quality

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Speaker 4: of the candidate. I think last time in the midterms,

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Speaker 4: you know, Trump backed a number of candidates, so I

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Speaker 4: think voters just felt like we're too extreme or too fringy.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of the Republican senatorial candidates this

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Speaker 4: time are you know, a bit more centrist, you know,

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Speaker 4: a bit more appealing to like a wider swath of voter.

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Speaker 4: So they've picked better candidates. But also, you know, right,

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Speaker 4: you're right, it's just really riding the cotails. And I

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Speaker 4: can't overstate that voters here are just not here in Wisconsin,

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Speaker 4: but just like across the country in the US are

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Speaker 4: just really not enthusiastic about Biden. They have deep concerns

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Speaker 4: about his age that the party has you know, sort

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Speaker 4: of glossed over for months, and you sort of can't

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Speaker 4: get slight people on that.

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Speaker 2: Senator Vance though, I mean, if you were looking, you

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Speaker 2: talked about sort of broadening the numerous paths to victory

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Speaker 2: and broadening out to states that have traditioned have for

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Speaker 2: many years voted Democrat. You know, we had been led

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Speaker 2: to think that maybe that would mean a different kind

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Speaker 2: of pick for vice president, a woman potentially, or someone

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Speaker 2: who or someone like Marco Rubio who would be reaching

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Speaker 2: out to the sort of non white, non core voter.

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Speaker 2: So that's a bit of a surprise, right. This is

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Speaker 2: a very core voter candidate.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, And I think it's interesting because it's also really

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Speaker 4: setting up Senator Vance as the heir apparent to the

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Speaker 4: MAGA movement when Trump, you know, he can only serve

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Speaker 4: for one term. I think that there was you know,

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Speaker 4: people inside the Trump campaign, including Trump's campaign manager, who

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Speaker 4: is a woman from Florida, who really wanted him to

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Speaker 4: pick Rubio for that reason. You know, Rubio speaks Spanish

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Speaker 4: to appeal to Hispanic voters. But I think that Rubio

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Speaker 4: and Trump sort of never had the chemistry that the

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Speaker 4: Trump had with Governor Bergham or with Senator Vance, and

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Speaker 4: I think that does matter. And Senator Vance also had

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Speaker 4: really powerful backers in the Trump family, including his son

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Speaker 4: Don Junior, who was really pushing for him, and I

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Speaker 4: think that helped as well.

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Speaker 1: If you can step away from where you are right now,

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Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen regarding Biden

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Speaker 1: and the back and forth over whether or not he

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Speaker 1: lasts all the way through to November.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that there's a huge chance that Biden

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Speaker 4: just stays in the race. Now. I mean the past week,

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Speaker 4: the conversation has really changed so that, you know, people

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Speaker 4: aren't really talking about Biden dropping out of the race

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Speaker 4: anymore since the assassination attempt, you know, all the focus

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Speaker 4: has been on Trump, and that has bought Biden more time.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think his strategy was always to kind

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Speaker 4: of run out the clock till the convention and sort

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Speaker 4: of not step down. I don't think he thinks he

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Speaker 4: needs to step down, and that's what we're seeing.

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Speaker 3: Them do and at the convention of people pretty happy

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Speaker 3: with the Vance choice.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, people at the convention seemed happy. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 4: there were some advisors in Trump world who wanted different candidates,

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Speaker 4: but everyone will get in line. And I think people

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Speaker 4: are also very excited about the idea of Senator Vance,

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Speaker 4: you know, who is a very articulate person and extremely

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Speaker 4: good at debating people and appearing on TV. I think

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Speaker 4: people are really excited about, you know, how he will

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Speaker 4: debate Vice President Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 3: Another trend for Yale Law School.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Nazi, I did want to mention that you were

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Speaker 2: one of the people who sat down with the editor

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Speaker 2: of BusinessWeek and head of our White House team in

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Speaker 2: Mara Lago with former President Donald Trump a couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, and that interview is coming out in BusinessWeek.

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Speaker 2: I think will have just come out when this goes out.

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Speaker 2: You know, everything's gone pretty well for former President Trump

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Speaker 2: since you had that interview. But he was already looking

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Speaker 2: like a had a very strong chance when we did it.

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Speaker 2: For those wanting to think about now, very focused very clearly,

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Speaker 2: particularly outside the US, on what a Trump two point

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Speaker 2: administration will be like. What did you really take away

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Speaker 2: from that sit.

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Speaker 4: Down, Well, we spent about ninety minutes with him, and

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Speaker 4: I think that one of the most interesting global things

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Speaker 4: he said that surprise me was just that he is

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Speaker 4: very cool to the idea of supporting Taiwan and having

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Speaker 4: the US sort of continue to defend Taiwan. He talked

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Speaker 4: at one point about how he didn't really understand why

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Speaker 4: the US is the insurance policy for Taiwan, and he

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Speaker 4: felt like, you know, Taiwan had taken away a lot

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Speaker 4: of the US chips business and he didn't really see

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Speaker 4: the need to protect them. And I just thought that

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Speaker 4: was an incredible foreshadowing of the way that he could

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Speaker 4: really change the global order and also just US's approached

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Speaker 4: to foreign policy if he wins reelection.

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Speaker 2: In terms of his style of leadership. The other thing

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Speaker 2: that struck me when I was looking at the transcript

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Speaker 2: was just how much he's talking in terms of personal

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Speaker 2: relationships and one on one relationships and the weather. You know,

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Speaker 2: so and so business leader has a problem with tariffs.

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Speaker 2: You know, they should just come and talk to me.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there was no fa to disguise that this

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Speaker 2: is going to be a very personal, very transactional approach

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Speaker 2: to leading.

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Speaker 4: It will be. And he told us a story when

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Speaker 4: we were there about how Tim Cook of Apple was

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Speaker 4: upset about some tariffs, and he complimented Tim Cook. He

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Speaker 4: said he thought Tim Cook was a great business leader

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Speaker 4: because rather than sort of hire an army of lobbyists

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Speaker 4: to try to influence the people around Trump, Tim Cook

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Speaker 4: just called Trump directly and said may I come see you,

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Speaker 4: which also flattered him, I think, and Tim Cook came

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Speaker 4: to the White House and they had a discussion, the

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Speaker 4: two of them, and Trump recounted this to us as

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Speaker 4: an example of like someone he thought was a good

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Speaker 4: business leader. And so I do think that offers a

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Speaker 4: lot of clues about how both CEOs and world leaders

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Speaker 4: and the ones who are successful actually interact with him.

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Speaker 2: And if you want access to Morrow Lago, you've got

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Speaker 2: to pay a higher price for membership come October. Is

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Speaker 2: that right?

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Speaker 4: Well, he sort of let it slip in the conversation

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Speaker 4: at one point that the club manager walked through and

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Speaker 4: he introduced us to him, and then he was bragging

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Speaker 4: about his property. How he said, it's the best location

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Speaker 4: in the best house. And then he said, tell them

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Speaker 4: how much it costs to get a membership, and the

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Speaker 4: club manager said, well, you know, right now at seven

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Speaker 4: hundred thousand dollars, and he said that's up from you know,

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Speaker 4: twenty five thousand when I first started, when he first

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Speaker 4: bought the club, which was many years ago. And then

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Speaker 4: he said in October it's going up to a million dollars,

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Speaker 4: which is interesting because that's a month before the US elections.

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Speaker 2: Nancy, thank you so much for joining us, and I

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Speaker 2: hope you get enough for enough sleep in the amid

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Speaker 2: all the pageantry and madness in Milwaukee this week.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: So we're delighted now to welcome Elbridge Colby. He's co

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Speaker 2: founder and principal of the Marathon Initiative, which is a

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Speaker 2: nonprofit focused on national security issues. He's a former Deputy

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Speaker 2: Assistant Sector of Defense for Strategy and Force Development during

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Speaker 2: the first Trump administration, and he has been tipped to

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Speaker 2: be Trump's national security advisor should there be a second administration,

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Speaker 2: although he's going to tell us that he doesn't speak

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Speaker 2: for the Trump administration and he doesn't know what job

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Speaker 2: he's going to get. Thank you very much for joining us. Albert.

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Speaker 2: We're speaking on Tuesday, just the day after the announcement

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Speaker 2: of Daily Evans as vice presidential pick by Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: He is known for having what Europeans would consider to

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Speaker 2: be use on your foreign policy, which Europeans would be

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Speaker 2: nervous about, particularly with regard to Ukraine. So I'm just

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Speaker 2: wondering how you think we should interpret the choice on

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Speaker 2: the ticket.

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Speaker 5: Sure well, great to be with you, Thank you. Let

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Speaker 5: me just be clear upfront that I don't speak for

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Speaker 5: President Trump or the Trump Vance campaign or sender Vance,

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Speaker 5: and I certainly don't make any presumptions about any future

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Speaker 5: role on my part, so I'm just speaking for myself.

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Speaker 5: So I mean, I think on the issue of President

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Speaker 5: Trump and sender Vance, I think what they're actually saying

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Speaker 5: is is that we need to have a foreign policy

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Speaker 5: that actually practically works for Americans' interests, that puts americans

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Speaker 5: interests first, which I think is kind of an unremarkable statement.

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Speaker 5: Most countries' foreign policies do try to put their people's

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Speaker 5: interests first, and I think if you look at what

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Speaker 5: sendor Vance, for instance, wrote in The Financial Times a

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Speaker 5: few months ago around it and his remarks of the

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Speaker 5: Munich Security Conference, he's calling attention to the scarcity that

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Speaker 5: the United States faces in terms of our industrial capacity,

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Speaker 5: in terms of the weapons and military readiness we have available.

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Speaker 5: Those are facts, and I mean I think there's a

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Speaker 5: lot of sort of stormone drawing on the European part,

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Speaker 5: where there's a lot of resistance or sort of unhappiness

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Speaker 5: about that. But again my view is that it's most

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Speaker 5: important to communicate clearly to a friend an ally the

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Speaker 5: reality of the situation and what can realistically be expected

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Speaker 5: so they have time to move. And I think what's

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Speaker 5: really interesting is that Europe is actually starting to move.

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Speaker 5: If you're a European or an American who cares about

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Speaker 5: an internationally area and foreign policy, the best thing is

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Speaker 5: we need to sort of reboot our foreign policy to

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Speaker 5: one that's more realistically like a business. Frankly, the more

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Speaker 5: realistically correlates the resources we have available, what we can

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Speaker 5: provide with what we can actually promise, and that's right

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Speaker 5: now there's a yawning gap between those two things exacerbate

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Speaker 5: under the Biden administration.

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Speaker 2: All three of us are clamoring to pick some of

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Speaker 2: what you just said. There's a lot there, And at

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Speaker 2: the reason NATO Summit, I think all the European leaders

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Speaker 2: there were recognizing the role that Donald Trump had played

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Speaker 2: in forcing Europe to get to a better place on defense,

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Speaker 2: the realism that we might expect in a future Trump administration,

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Speaker 2: there's certainly two different parts of that. I think there

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Speaker 2: is an understanding that there would be something of a

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Speaker 2: pivot from Europe to Asia, which I know that you've supported,

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Speaker 2: and we can get into what that means. I think

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Speaker 2: specifically on Ukraine, and certainly the comments that I've heard

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Speaker 2: Senator Vance make about what outcomes are feasible in any

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Speaker 2: kind of resolution of the situation in Ukraine visa v Russia.

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Speaker 2: What would you see as the change in a Trump

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Speaker 2: administration or what would you like to see in a

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Speaker 2: future Trump administration with regard to as sort of what

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Speaker 2: a solution might be for Ukraine and Russia's approach to it.

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Speaker 5: Sure, well, again, let me just stress that I you know,

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Speaker 5: I'm not speaking for the Trump Vans campaign or so,

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Speaker 5: you know, I really can't. I can give you my own,

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Speaker 5: my own views and my own recommendations. I'd say first,

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Speaker 5: my own view is that we do need to focus

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Speaker 5: on China. Really, President Trump was was crucial, I mean

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Speaker 5: historic shift in orientation towards confronting the reality of a

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Speaker 5: much more greater and more ambitious and aggressive China, and

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, that's a real area of broad

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Speaker 5: consensus within the United States and certainly among Republicans and independents.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, Senator Vance has been one of

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Speaker 5: the most articulate sort of exponents or vocalizers of the

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Speaker 5: reality of the situation where we're behind in the middle

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Speaker 5: balance and other respects in the Asia Pacific. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I think on the on the on this sort of

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Speaker 5: Ukraine issue. I know, President Trump, like Dwight Eisenower in

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Speaker 5: nineteen fifty two, like Richard Nixon in ninetey sixty eight,

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Speaker 5: like Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty, in the case of

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Speaker 5: Korea Vietnam and the hostage crisis, has said I want to,

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Speaker 5: you know, bring peace to the situation. So I certainly

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Speaker 5: support that and hope that that we're able to get

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Speaker 5: to peace. I think most most people really are, and

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Speaker 5: I think looking at the reality of the situation, I mean,

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Speaker 5: you know, look at the reports of the New York

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Speaker 5: Times recently about the reality of the situation on battlefield.

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Speaker 5: You know, we're talking about a pretty stalemated situation, probably

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Speaker 5: at best. So I think you know what Senator Vance

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Speaker 5: has been saying, you know what President Trump has been saying,

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Speaker 5: I think those are proceeding from a kind of reality

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Speaker 5: about the situation. I was in Washington during the NATO summit,

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Speaker 5: is that there's there's sort of this soaring rhetoric, you know,

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Speaker 5: John F. Kennedy's inaugural address, from President Biden, from some

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Speaker 5: European leaders, and then you kind of check the facts

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Speaker 5: and it's a totally different world. I mean, one of

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Speaker 5: the things that's bizarre is that Biden administration's own position

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Speaker 5: is that the war will end through negotiations. So how

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Speaker 5: critical can people be of the idea that we should

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Speaker 5: begin negotiations to end the war. It doesn't make any sense.

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Speaker 5: And it's not like the Biden administration is dramatically increasing

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Speaker 5: defense spending. It's not. So. Again, I don't think it's

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Speaker 5: an exaggeration to say that we're on the verge of

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Speaker 5: World War iie or my metaphor kind of have a

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Speaker 5: titanic obsession that we're heading towards the Iceberg. Is because

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Speaker 5: we're there's a very large war in Ukraine that's not

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Speaker 5: going well and certainly doesn't seem on the verge of

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Speaker 5: ending Putin as in the Kremlin are remilitarizing Russian the

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Speaker 5: Russian economy. They seem to be pretty confident. Unfortunately, there's

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Speaker 5: a war in Gaza, largest attack on the Jewish people

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Speaker 5: since the Holocaust. The Hutis are still attacking shipping. Despite

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Speaker 5: our having used up significant amounts of our inventory of

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Speaker 5: critical missiles for a China fight. North Korea is becoming

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Speaker 5: more aggressive helping Russia out. You can be sure the

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Speaker 5: Russians are paying them back. And of course China. Don't

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Speaker 5: take it from me. Any secretary of the Air Force

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Speaker 5: in this administration, by an administration, Frank Kendall says they're

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Speaker 5: preparing for war. Now. We don't know what's going to happen,

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Speaker 5: but war. I mean, this is a bad situation. And

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Speaker 5: at home, despite a lot of rhetoric, our defense industrial

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Speaker 5: base is not fixed. It's in sorry shape. And this

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Speaker 5: is why it's so important what the Republican platform is saying,

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Speaker 5: we need to reindustrialize. But there's a huge discordance between

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Speaker 5: rhetoric and reality, and that is an extremely dangerous situation,

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Speaker 5: like it would be for a company.

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Speaker 3: Given the reality of this dangerous world shouldn't you be

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Speaker 3: doing more to invest in your alliances and reassure your allies,

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Speaker 3: your very close allies. Surely one of America's greatest strengths,

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Speaker 3: built up laboriously since the Second World War, is this

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Speaker 3: web of global alliances. And you've referred twice to Ronald Reagan.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Ronald Reagan believed that America needed to exercise

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Speaker 3: hard power, but he also believed that he had this

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Speaker 3: extraordinary reservoir of values of soft power. Shouldn't we be

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Speaker 3: strengthening the Western Alliance rather than questioning it at this

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Speaker 3: difficult time.

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Speaker 5: Indeed, we should be strengthening. But the second word you

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Speaker 5: said is not the way to do that. And we've

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Speaker 5: seen that because reassuring our allies too much enables the

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Speaker 5: very free riding that is not only dangerous to Americans,

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Speaker 5: but is especially dangerous to Europeans. So cheap talk and

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Speaker 5: high flying flying rhetoric about how great the situation and

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Speaker 5: will always be there to fight for the rules based

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Speaker 5: international order, that does not help you. I mean you're

436
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 5: in London, That does not help you. If you're sitting

437
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 5: in Poland or the Baltic States, or Finland, or South

438
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 5: Korea or Taiwan because a Americans don't most Americans don't

439
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 5: care know what the rules based in national order is.

440
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 5: I don't even know what it is. It keeps changing

441
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 5: its meaning. It tends to be tendentious and self serving.

442
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 5: And second of all, there are limits to what Americans

443
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 5: can do. And by the way, look, I mean, Ronald

444
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 5: Reaguer is a great president. I'm a big fan of his,

445
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 5: but he's not like I mean, there's a certain segment

446
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 5: of the Republican Party that sort of wants to bring him,

447
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 5: you know, like cryogenically unfrees him. And we're in a

448
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 5: different situation. We need more realism. Soft power is nice,

449
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 5: but there's too much emphasis on that talk is cheap.

450
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 5: What we need and what deters the Putins of the world,

451
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 5: the Hijinpings of the world, the Kim jong Uns of

452
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 5: the world, the accomnees of the world, is hard military

453
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 5: power in the right place at the right time. And

454
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 5: this is why I hammer on the second point on reassurance.

455
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 5: We actually need people who are going to get real

456
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 5: backed the situation. And let me stress something that's really important

457
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 5: and why I think President Trump's center vans the way

458
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 5: they're acting is actually more consistent with the Cold War legacy,

459
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 5: because during the Cold War we had very, very tough

460
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 5: conversations with our allies Democrats. Lyndon Johnson, you look back

461
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 5: at the balance of payments crisis in the nineteen sixties

462
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 5: and the issue of the stationing of US force in

463
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 5: West Germany. Look at what President Eisenhower was saying, President Reagan,

464
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 5: the Plaza accords a lot of pressure on our allies

465
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 5: because you know what, it was supposed to be a

466
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 5: real alliance, not just a photo op, right, And that's

467
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 5: right now. I think we're in the photo opp business,

468
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 5: and we need to be in the real military alliance business.

469
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 3: I'm not disdisagreeing with you about talk being cheap and

470
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 3: hard power being absolutely essential. But isn't the fact that

471
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 3: we're the good guys, We're the guys who stand for freedom, democracy,

472
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 3: the rule of law, and the rest of it absolutely

473
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:18,719
Speaker 3: vital to our claim, particularly to other wavering nations against

474
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: the bad guys, against Russia, against China, against North Korea

475
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: and the rest of them. It's an invaluable resource, and

476
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 3: you're in danger of undervaluing it.

477
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 5: I think we are, you know, on the side of

478
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 5: freedom and democracy and I think, but and I don't

479
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 5: think we should be shy about that. And I don't

480
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 5: think President Trump or Center Vance or the Republican Party

481
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 5: is shy about that. What I would say is we're

482
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 5: high on rhetoric, and at the end of the day,

483
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 5: American forim policy, if you go back to the purpose

484
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 5: of the Constitution, if you read the Federals papers, it's

485
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 5: supposed to be in the practical interests. And at the

486
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 5: other thing I would say is some of the rhetoric,

487
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 5: especially that's attractive to Northern and Western Europeans, a lot

488
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 5: of this rhetoric actually doesn't travel very well. It doesn't

489
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 5: actually resonate in a lot of parts of the world.

490
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 5: I think what you know, for instance, if you look

491
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 5: back at what President Trump said in his Warsaw speech

492
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 5: or in other speeches at the United Nations, a foreign

493
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 5: policy that's based on an approach that respects the autonomy

494
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 5: and sovereignty of other nations. India, many of the countries

495
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 5: in Southeast Asia, Japan, for instance, et cetera. I mean,

496
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 5: look at President Biden referring to India and Japan as

497
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 5: xenophobic a few months ago. I think there's a there's

498
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 5: a different approach that at least the kind of conservative

499
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 5: realist approach that I advocate for that goes back again

500
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 5: to President Eisenhower or Jim Baker, these kinds of things.

501
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 5: I think actually that could resonate a lot more. It

502
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 5: might not be as popular in Northern and Western Europe,

503
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 5: but you know that's okay.

504
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:46,199
Speaker 1: You've mentioned realism and being realistic. Does NATO deterripute in

505
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 1: if America is focused elsewhere?

506
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 5: Well, it can if the Europeans step up. So that's

507
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 5: the I mean, it's it's a numbers it's a numbers game.

508
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: It's a numbers game. And you've you've talked about the

509
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 1: Polish five GDP on defense. But in the UK we're

510
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 1: in a debate about two point five percent and the

511
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: labor of the Labor Party, which I think we'd all

512
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: have to talk about your relationships with them. But Labor

513
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,959
Speaker 1: is saying they agree it needs to go to two

514
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: point five, but they've not given us a time on that.

515
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 1: Just talk us through. You know how quickly you're going

516
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: to want to hear a time from labor than the

517
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: government on the two point five And it doesn't sound

518
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: to me like it's enough.

519
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 5: There's a phrase from the Bible that I was using

520
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 5: a lot with former Foreign Secretary Cameron, which is, remove

521
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 5: the mote from thy own eye, friend, you know, remove

522
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 5: the piece, you know, the obstruction from your own eye,

523
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 5: which is.

524
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 4: What did he say?

525
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: What did you tell us?

526
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 5: What he says? I don't know. I don't know, but

527
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 5: the British people have spoken, so we have a different

528
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 5: a different situation now. But the points that I'm making

529
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 5: that I think Senator Vance was pointing to in his

530
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 5: Minisecurity conference and FT pieces is just the reality of

531
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 5: scarcity a couple a couple of points. Our military readiness

532
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 5: is a historic looths, the defense industrial bases in bad shape.

533
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 5: And moreover, defense spending again, I don't know. I can't

534
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 5: speak for the advanced campaign or anything President Trump, but

535
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 5: I don't see dramatic increases in defense spending as part

536
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 5: of the political conversation here. I mean, we know the

537
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 5: debt to GDP issue. There's pressure on the deficit. I

538
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 5: hope there's some headroom, but it's not going to be

539
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 5: a doubling in the defense budget, I would imagine. So,

540
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 5: you know, a lot of this has to come from Europe,

541
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 5: and if you go back I mean the American people,

542
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 5: we've all been spending three three and a half percent

543
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 5: of our income every year. So you know, Germany they've

544
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 5: been spending one point two and they have universal health care, right,

545
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 5: So like, I mean, there's a little bit of like really,

546
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 5: But of course President Trump raised this issue eight years

547
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 5: ago and there was progress, but a lot of it

548
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 5: was kind of and right now a lot of it

549
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,400
Speaker 5: is sort of like, Oh, we're moving some pension funds

550
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 5: around and we're going to get to two percent by

551
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 5: twenty thirty five. I think if you're serious about the

552
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 5: Russia threat. I think the Russia threat is serious, move

553
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 5: as fast as you can. And I think the government

554
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 5: in the UK, the new government. Again, I'm a conservative,

555
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 5: but I think back to the point I was just saying,

556
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 5: I think this foreign policy of common sense America first,

557
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 5: is compatible with other countries with various political orientations as

558
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 5: long as they're practical, self reliant, serious and focused. But

559
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 5: I think the most important thing, again will be concrete

560
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 5: results on not only defense spending, which is very important,

561
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 5: but also outputs.

562
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 2: The editor of BusinessWeek and some of our senior Washington

563
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 2: reporters sat down with former President Trump a couple of

564
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: weeks ago in Mara Lago. That interview is coming out

565
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 2: I think will have just come out when we speak,

566
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: So I apologize I'm talking about something that you haven't

567
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: seen the wording of. But when we asked him about Taiwan,

568
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 2: he said, you were dumb, quote to let Taiwan steal

569
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: the US chip business, and also that the Taiwan should

570
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: be paying the US for its protection like an insurance policy.

571
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: He also sounded extremely sort of focused on the practical

572
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 2: obstacles to defending Taiwan. The fact he cited how many

573
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 2: thousands of miles the US was from Taipei versus know

574
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 2: less than seventy miles from China. So I just wondered,

575
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 2: I know you certainly don't speak for Donald Trump now

576
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: or in terms of future policy, but it does often

577
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 2: sound like Donald Trump is very wary of foreign entanglements

578
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: and expensive commitments, whether it's Asia or anywhere else. And

579
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 2: I just wonder if that squares with the kind of

580
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 2: quite full, full throated pivot that we've been talking about

581
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: in this from Europe to Asia, and certainly a focus

582
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 2: on Asia and China's threat that we've been talking about here.

583
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 5: Well, I also am very wary of foreign entanglements and

584
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 5: expenses and costly wars. And I think George Washington was too,

585
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 5: he talked about in his farewell address. So again, I

586
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 5: think that's kind of common sense. I think in the

587
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 5: case of the defensive Taiwan look present, as I understand it,

588
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 5: President Trump has been stuck basically to the traditional strategic

589
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 5: ambiguity policy on the question defense. My point when I

590
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 5: was in the Pentagon and since then has been it's

591
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 5: the job of the defense and Security establishment to give

592
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 5: the President of United States the best possible capacity to

593
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 5: defend Taiwan. So if you read my book, and if

594
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 5: you go back to what I'm writing, read over the

595
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 5: years and saying I've always I've described Taiwan as like

596
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 5: a seventy out of one hundred value. Taiwan is very

597
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 5: important to the United States, and it's important to the

598
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 5: anti hed what I call the anti hegemonic coalition, but

599
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 5: it's not existential for the United States now. If Taiwan

600
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 5: were to fall, god forbid, to China, that would be

601
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 5: a very serious setback for the United States position and

602
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 5: the position of the anti hegemonic coalition in Japan, India, Australia, Philippines,

603
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 5: South Korea, et cetera. It would actually be a worse

604
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 5: situation for us. But what the key things that I've

605
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 5: been arguing for the last six five or six years are, First,

606
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 5: the United States should be husbanding its scarce resources to

607
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 5: give us the best possible basis for defending Taiwan, to

608
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 5: keep the costs and risks of doing so as low

609
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 5: as possible. Unfortunately, we now have not done that, and

610
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 5: despite the arguments of people like sender Van, we've sent

611
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 5: a lot of the critical weapons and money and political

612
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 5: resolve to Europe and to some extent, the Middle East.

613
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 5: So we're now in a weaker position that President Biden

614
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 5: is kind of leaving us with. And secondly, and critically,

615
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 5: the Taiwanes need to step up dramatically. The points I'm

616
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 5: saying to you about Europe are tenfold the case in Taiwan,

617
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 5: but Taiwan spends less than three percent, and in fact,

618
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 5: Taiwan itself has been advocating for US to send capabilities

619
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 5: to Ukraine. So, and this is very important because I

620
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 5: think of Republicans today and the idea of alliances is

621
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 5: really much more about hey, how much skin do these

622
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 5: people have in how serious are they? And this gets

623
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 5: the kind of the bottom line, which is, I think

624
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 5: America will be more likely to help those who help themselves.

625
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 5: And this is very important in Taiwan, and it's very

626
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 5: important in Europe as well.

627
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 3: What would be some of the implications of a more

628
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 3: sustainable defense position for the United States in terms of

629
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 3: the industrial base of the United States providing the munitions

630
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 3: that you need, and in terms more broadly of your

631
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 3: economy make policy towards China.

632
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, I'm mostly focused on the security side.

633
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 5: I think President Trump and people like investor Lighteheiser have

634
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 5: been very clear on the economic sort of agenda, which

635
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 5: I support. But I think on the security side, both

636
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 5: President Trump and Center Vance have been very clear about this.

637
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 5: The roots, the root of the situation is fixing our

638
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 5: industrial base, and particularly our defense industrial base. Why well,

639
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 5: if we can produce a lot of stuff quickly at scale,

640
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 5: then our own forces will be better equipped and more

641
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 5: formidable and thus more likely to deter and thus more

642
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 5: likely to preserve peace. Moreover, we can sell or give

643
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 5: those weapons to our allies and partners who are most

644
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 5: likely to use them. Israel, India, South Korea, Poland, et cetera.

645
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 5: These are the kind of key countries. Others, you know,

646
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 5: Vietnam maybe you know that are Philippines that are ready

647
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 5: to kind of defend their own interests. That's better for

648
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 5: us and it's better for our allies. So that's kind

649
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 5: of the root of the situation. And so I think

650
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 5: this in a say, if we just increase the defense

651
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 5: budget and poured it into the current system, I don't

652
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 5: think we'd get a very big output. But this is

653
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 5: why the solving the defense problem is also inherently an

654
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 5: economic issue, because we do need to reindustrialize, because we're

655
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 5: not going to solve the defense industrial based issues without

656
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 5: also reindustrializing because one of the problems is, for instance,

657
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 5: we don't have enough welders to maintain our ships or

658
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 5: build our ships. Why don't we have enough welders because

659
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 5: we're down having a large enough industry to sustain it.

660
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: In the UK, we've been developing relationships with the Pacific.

661
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 1: We call it the Pacific tilt. So there's Orcus and

662
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: then there's something called the Hiroshimira Records, which is a

663
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: UK relationship with Japan. Is that helpful or is that

664
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: a distraction? If you're wanting the UK to be I mean,

665
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: some of the things you said about your relationship with

666
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: David Lammie was that you found it refreshing to hear

667
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 1: a UK government talking about its European relationships.

668
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 5: First, yeah, I've been skeptical of the tilt and I

669
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 5: told the last government that over the years. I think, look,

670
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 5: it's obviously at a diplomatic level or in from an

671
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 5: investment point of view, that's up to the United Kingdom.

672
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 5: But certainly I know Defense Secretary Heally gave a very

673
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 5: articulate and I think compelling speech on this point about

674
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 5: a year ago, where he pointed out it doesn't make

675
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 5: a lot of sense. I mean the United Kingdom. I

676
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 5: mean partially thanks to the government of Prime Minister then

677
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 5: Prime Minister Cameron, the UK military is in a pretty

678
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 5: parless state. And I say that with respect ours is

679
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 5: also in a lot of trouble. So I think the

680
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 5: best thing for the UK, given its interests and its

681
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 5: views on Russia and Ukraine and its capabilities, is to

682
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 5: focus on much more on Europe. And I would say

683
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 5: I think this is a general principle. I mean, I've

684
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 5: been struck in the last kind of year or so

685
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 5: that the Japanese government has been very much like Prime

686
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 5: Minister Kashida came to the United States and advocated for

687
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 5: US to pass a supplemental that was overwhelmingly oriented towards Europe.

688
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 5: I think the Japanese government should be much more focused

689
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 5: on making sure that it's ready to defend itself and

690
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 5: contribute to collective defense. I mean, two percent by twenty

691
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 5: twenty seven of the twenty twenty two budget. That's not

692
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 5: especially impressive when you look at the scale of the

693
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 5: Chinese build up and there's a lot of high fiving

694
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 5: going on. And again, I think Taiwan is sort of

695
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 5: the most stark and urgent example of a country where

696
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 5: the level of effort is seriously below what's needed. But

697
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 5: Japan also, and then you compare that with country like

698
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,760
Speaker 5: South Korea, with India some extent, with Australia, with poland

699
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 5: certainly I think that's the kind of model that we

700
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 5: want to encourage, which is, hey, focus on your defense

701
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 5: in a serious, practical, more self reliant, business, hard nosed way.

702
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 5: That's very compatible I think with an America first approach.

703
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 5: And again, if your government's left right center, green, blah blah, blah.

704
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 5: You know whatever, It doesn't matter as long as we can,

705
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:43,840
Speaker 5: as long as we can work in a sort of

706
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 5: hard nosed way together on shared interests.

707
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: Rich Kolby, I don't know whether he is or isn't

708
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 2: a senior figure in the second Trump administration. We do

709
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: know he is the author of the strategy of denial

710
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 2: American defense in an age of great power conflict. Thank

711
00:35:55,880 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 2: you very much for joining us, my pleasure. We'll joined

712
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 2: now by John Wickthwaite, editor in chief of Bloomberg, who

713
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 2: is on his way to Milwaukee the Republican Convention, but

714
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 2: has just lingering on his route to chat to us.

715
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,760
Speaker 2: I was completely struck by a piece that you wrote

716
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 2: with Adrian on the lessons that Republicans can learn from

717
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: the British Tories' recent defeat. I mean, I have to say,

718
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 2: when I first saw this, I thought, wow, this is

719
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 2: just a desperate effort to still as a British journalist,

720
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 2: to still have something relevant to say to Republicans in

721
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 2: the convention.

722
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,799
Speaker 6: But I think it's obviously mainly that.

723
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 2: But why on earth should they care about what just

724
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 2: happened to the Duk's Tories.

725
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 6: Well, I think there's at least two or three reasons.

726
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 6: The first reason is there has always been a historic

727
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 6: link between the two. They've tended to advance in lockstep.

728
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 6: In fact, the interesting thing on that is that the

729
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 6: Tories have tended. What's happened for the Tories has tended

730
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 6: to happen to the Republicans. Thatcher came in just before

731
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 6: Reagan breaks, it happened just before Trump. But the more

732
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 6: interesting fact is that the Tories completely imploded. And I

733
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 6: think some of the things that went wrong with the

734
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 6: Tories are things that could now be going wrong with

735
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 6: the Republicans, and that those are things that the Republicans

736
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 6: should look at very hard, even if those particular chickens

737
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 6: don't come home to roost for another four years, but

738
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 6: maybe also if something changes on the Democratic side, they

739
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,320
Speaker 6: could come earlier. And it's that basic problem of committing

740
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 6: yourself to a very kind of populist, chaotic version of government,

741
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 6: and that seems to be the way in which the

742
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 6: Republicans are going.

743
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: Does jd.

744
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: Vance's appointment or nomination does that change it in any way?

745
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: Because I think we all agree that he's an intellectual

746
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 1: vice presidential candidate. You know, he has a theory of change.

747
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: He has a number of leavers he wants to pull,

748
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: and he doesn't seem chaotic.

749
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,240
Speaker 6: I think he's less chaotic than Trump. But I think

750
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 6: the basic core of it, you know, you go back

751
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 6: to why the Conservatives and Republicans have been so good

752
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 6: at winning elections, and there's sort of two reasons for it.

753
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 6: I think fundamentally, the first is that conservatism is about competence.

754
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 6: It's about being able to deliver things. That has always

755
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 6: been the main sort of appeal of parties on the right.

756
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 6: The Trump first term had moments of chaos. It feels

757
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 6: like the second one could well go that way. You

758
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 6: saw what happened with Johnson first and with the trusts

759
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 6: in Britain. The Conservatives basically trash their idea of competence,

760
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 6: and the other side of kind of modern conservative movements

761
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 6: has been this idea of a kind of small state

762
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 6: of keeping keeping the government off your backs. People like

763
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 6: Vance and Trump have that to some degree. They talk

764
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 6: about kind of burning up regulations, but fundamentally they're about

765
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 6: increasing the debt, about pushing those things out. And I

766
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,760
Speaker 6: think there is a bigger and bigger contradiction which really

767
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 6: got the Tories and could yet get the Republicans between

768
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 6: promising one thing to the competent business side, ie, you're

769
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 6: going to be the party that's going to make the

770
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 6: economy work really well, you're going to open things up,

771
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 6: you're going to compete in a global world, and on

772
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 6: the other hand, telling a group of especially white working

773
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 6: class voters that we are going to protect you. And

774
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 6: there is a fundamental conflict between those two things.

775
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 3: I think the appointment of Vance is incredibly interesting. I

776
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,800
Speaker 3: would qualify that by saying, if you're playing second fiddle

777
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 3: to Trump, you're paying certain fiddle. I mean, there's no

778
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 3: doubt that Trump is the boss, and you have to

779
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 3: make certain that you don't try and claim credit for

780
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 3: what he's doing. We will suffer a sort of Steeve

781
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 3: Bannon eclipse. But Vance is more of a populist, more

782
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 3: of a nationalist, and more of a sort of anti

783
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 3: business person than Trump is. He's very skeptical about business.

784
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 3: Vance very pro the working classes and the injustices that

785
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 3: they've received, in his view, very pro protectionism. So he

786
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 3: is deepening the sort of the populist side of the

787
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 3: Trump coalition and also raising questions of big government because

788
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 3: he's a big government person and raising questions of competence

789
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 3: because he is, you know, he's very ideologically opposed to

790
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 3: an important part of the Republican coalition, which is the

791
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 3: business world.

792
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 1: So if you look in the UK, I think you

793
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: talk John there about the small state and so on.

794
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 1: The person that's probably or rather during the last election

795
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 1: that probably articulated that most clearly was Pharage. But actually

796
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 1: Nigel Faraj and JD. Vance have different agendas. It was

797
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 1: quite striking to hear farajhs during the last election campaign

798
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: talking about slashing taxes. Was it twenty billion worth of

799
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 1: tax carts might have been fifty billion? I lost, I

800
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: lose track. So but actually, if I think about the JD.

801
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 1: Vance portfolio, that is something that would connect with the

802
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: you know, not just the colactons, but the Red Wall

803
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 1: and so on, rather than necessarily people really like Nigel

804
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 1: Pharage's rhetoric, but actually when you look closely at his

805
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 1: policy platform, I don't know if it connects popular.

806
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 3: Stature and JD. Vance is a populist Boris site in

807
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 3: many ways, you know, appealing to the working classes, taking

808
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 3: up the culture war. But even more deeply than Boris,

809
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 3: Vance really doesn't like the people that he had to

810
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 3: associate with at Yale Law School. He doesn't like the

811
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 3: liberal elites even more than Trump. You know, there's a

812
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 3: very deep disdain for those people.

813
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 2: Just to push back and ask John, I mean, I

814
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 2: think it's clearly it's a very thought provoking piece. Certainly

815
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 2: many people have looked at what's happened to the Republican

816
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 2: Party and it's kind of completely brought home crystallized by

817
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 2: the convention and the way that the Republican Party and

818
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: Donald Trump are more or less fused now in a

819
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 2: way that they weren't before. So it's interesting to think

820
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 2: about whether they've moved too far from their sort of

821
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 2: core appeal. But I mean, you could make the argument

822
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 2: that US is just really different and the things that

823
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 2: are going to happen, that things that have happened in

824
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 2: the UK will not happen in the US. For example,

825
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 2: under the Conservatives, Britain left it the European Union, so

826
00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:00,399
Speaker 2: it became more close to its biggest trading partner. That's

827
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:01,919
Speaker 2: not going to help you all the people you're trying

828
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 2: to appeal to economically, if you're a medium sized, very

829
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 2: open economy, very reliant on trade. Actually tariff's and a

830
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 2: more mechantilist approach can work if you're the biggest market

831
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 2: in the world. Equally, if you have a presidential system.

832
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 2: There are just a lot fewer obstacles in the way

833
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 2: of Donald Trump than there were in the way of

834
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 2: Boris Johnson. I mean, the Party could get rid of

835
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 2: Boris in a way that would not now be conceivable

836
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: in the US because the Party has become the presidency.

837
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 2: I mean you could argue that a more slightly more

838
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 2: efficient version of Boris, had he been in a presidential system,

839
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 2: might still be around and might actually have been furthering

840
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: that conservative revolution.

841
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 6: I think there's a bit of truth in that, and

842
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 6: there is definitely a difference when we Edri and I

843
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 6: wrote a book a long time ago called The Right Nation,

844
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 6: which was partly about the conservative movement inside America, but

845
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 6: also making the point that America was also to some

846
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 6: extent a right nation on the international stage. You know,

847
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 6: by many measures, people like Hillary Clinton were to the

848
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 6: right of day Cameron back then. Anyway, that's part one.

849
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 6: I would argue back on several things. Firstly, I think

850
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 6: the Republican Party has become unusually sort of subject to

851
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 6: one man. It's much closer to kind of Berlasconi version

852
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 6: of a party at the moment, where a lot of

853
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 6: policies are simply kind of Trump will fix this, you know.

854
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 6: That applies to immigration, it applies to Gaza, applies to

855
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 6: Ukraine and so on. I think secondly, there is this

856
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 6: sort of misapprehension that there is something sort of different

857
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 6: about the way in which they want to get alienating

858
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 6: the commercial classes just doesn't really strike me as being

859
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 6: at the core of conservatism wherever you go. And finally,

860
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 6: I think this is the biggest problem for them is

861
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 6: I think they are they're being lulled into a kind

862
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:49,399
Speaker 6: of false sort of positive and that is that they

863
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 6: just like Johnson, thought that he won the election all

864
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 6: those years ago when it becomes increasingly obvious that actually

865
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 6: Jeremy Corbyn lost it. Jeremy Corbyn was completely unelectable. The

866
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 6: main reason why Donald Trump is doing so well at

867
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 6: the moment is not just things that have that he's done.

868
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 6: And obviously there's a lot of sympathy for him the

869
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 6: moment because what happened the weekend, but fundamentally because people

870
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 6: do not think Biden is a good candidate and so

871
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 6: if you know, if the Republicans were to read too

872
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 6: much into the idea that this is Trump has got

873
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 6: everything right, which I think is the sort of starting

874
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 6: point of your question. I just don't think that's likely

875
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 6: to stand up. You know, imagine that if it was

876
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 6: somebody else other than Biden, with a more centrist Democratic Party,

877
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 6: which seemed perhaps they's geriatric at the at the front,

878
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 6: then I think you might have a very different battle.

879
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 2: If Trump becomes president. What's going to stop him? I mean,

880
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 2: what's going to stop consolidating this power, even if he's

881
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 2: lucky to get it.

882
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 3: One thing that can happen in America which can't happen

883
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 3: in Britain is he can lose the Senate and he

884
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 3: can lose the House, which.

885
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 2: Looks very unlikely.

886
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 3: No, no, no, I'm not I think the first time around,

887
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 3: but after two years, the checks and balances can assert

888
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 3: themselves very quickly and you get a paralyzed president.

889
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,720
Speaker 6: I think the answer is yes. You know, at the moment,

890
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,280
Speaker 6: it looks likely that Trump will win for lots of reasons,

891
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,839
Speaker 6: not least what happened at the weekend. He's got all

892
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 6: that momentum behind him. But the big thing that comes

893
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 6: through pole after poll after poll. At the moment is

894
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 6: the idea that most people, really very large amount of

895
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 6: Americans do not want either Trump or Biden. You're at

896
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 6: seventy eighty percent. So you have to think that, notwithstanding

897
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 6: the fact that the ruving Party is now so fully

898
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 6: committed to Trump, that if the Democrats were to come

899
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 6: up with someone else other than Biden, that would actually

900
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 6: become a much more realistic battle. And it's that is

901
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 6: quite and that I think could make a difference.

902
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 1: Who is that person? Can you see them coming through there?

903
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 1: I mean, the time scale being talked about here is

904
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:45,879
Speaker 1: in the next two to four years. Who would come

905
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 1: through that would make the Trump vance double ticket unravel?

906
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 6: I think it has to be someone from the kind

907
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 6: of pragmatic center. And one of the strange, strange ironies

908
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 6: about what's happened over the past few days is on

909
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 6: the obviously the sort of failed assassination Tempters strengthened Trump.

910
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 6: The other thing is it's given Biden a little bit

911
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 6: of a breathing space as well, because as we were

912
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 6: going into that and so you could end up with

913
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 6: almost the best possible scenario from the point of your

914
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 6: Trump whereby he is strengthened and Biden is weakened, but

915
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 6: not so much as to as to be moved on.

916
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 6: In my looking at it, I think there is still

917
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 6: quite a lot of support for the idea of a

918
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 6: fresh face coming through. That's something that many many people want.

919
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 6: But I think it would be a mistake of the Republicans,

920
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 6: and it may not be very obvious that this precise

921
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,919
Speaker 6: moment is certainly not going to be obvious in Milwaukee.

922
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 6: It would be a mistake to sort of regard everything

923
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 6: that's happening at the moment is pro Trump, when in

924
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,479
Speaker 6: fact there's a lot of people who are against Biden.

925
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 6: There's a lot of people don't want either of them,

926
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 6: and that is that's that is. That is not the

927
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 6: same as having the same kind of revolution that happened

928
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 6: when Thatcher and Reagan came in.

929
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 1: The evidence in the UK and the evidence in the US,

930
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 1: though I'm sure you can correct me. Possibly why he

931
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 1: chose Jodie Vance is that people do want that big

932
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 1: a state. They wanted it in the UK election, So

933
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: I suppose.

934
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:09,399
Speaker 3: They don't want to pay for it.

935
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 1: No, no, But the question I.

936
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: Have planning to pay for it either put into.

937
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 1: One side the old fashioned question of how you pay

938
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 1: for something. Is the Republican Party under Trump, Trump and

939
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 1: Vance moving that way because it is quote unquote you

940
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 1: know what the people want.

941
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 6: You could bring all these things together. You could say,

942
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 6: look around the world, and you've got people like Maloney,

943
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 6: you had Johnson again was a little bit in the thing.

944
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 6: You've got people who are saying that, you know, the

945
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 6: modern conservatism is about slightly bigger. Yes, we want to

946
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 6: provide more services, we want to protect our people. We're

947
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,360
Speaker 6: not just about free markets and free trade and government

948
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 6: of your back. But there's no doubt that one part

949
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 6: of conservatism has always been talking to the business classes

950
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,280
Speaker 6: and saying, look, we you know, we are the efficient people.

951
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 6: We're going to deliver government that works. We're going to

952
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 6: do it cheaply and without causing you too much difficulty.

953
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 6: And there is a very big contradiction between those and

954
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 6: the difficulty about trying to pursue both those aims. As

955
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,720
Speaker 6: the Conservatives discovered in Britain's you often end up delivering neither.

956
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 6: You end up neither shrinking the state in a way

957
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 6: that business people think might be great, nor, on the

958
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 6: other hand, delivering the services that people want, and on

959
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:26,240
Speaker 6: things like immigration, you get yourself into the most almighty mess.

960
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 6: What I think we're saying is, look, the Republicans definitely

961
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 6: look as if they're in the ascendency at the moment,

962
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 6: and that has only been reinforced by what happened over

963
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 6: the weekend and by all the problems to do with

964
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 6: Joe Biden. But look underneath it, and they could have

965
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 6: exactly the same thing as happened to the British Conservatives

966
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 6: going on underneath.

967
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 3: I think the most important consequence of the failed assassination

968
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 3: attempt will not be in the long term to strengthen Trump,

969
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 3: because as we saw with Reagan, you get a bounce

970
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 3: and then that bounce goes down. It will be to

971
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 3: give Biden the breathing room that he needs to remain

972
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 3: as the candidate. I think there was enough momentum building

973
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 3: up perhaps two for them to have changed. I think

974
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 3: that that window is now very rapidly closing, and I

975
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 3: think he will be the candidates. The election will be

976
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 3: a referendum on Biden rather than the referendum on Trump,

977
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 3: and a referendum Biden is something that Biden loses.

978
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 2: What Republicans can learn from the Tories. I'm fascinated to

979
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 2: hear later in the week how that note of caution

980
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,440
Speaker 2: goes down when John Wickfaitt tries to explain it to

981
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 2: all the Republicans in Milwaukie. But thank you very much,

982
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 2: thank you, thanks for listening to this week's voter nomics

983
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg. This episode was hosted by Me Stephanie Flanders,

984
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 2: with a leg of Stratton and Adrian Waldrich. Was produced

985
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 2: by Samasadi with booking support from Chris martinloom production support

986
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 2: and sound design by Moses and am Brendan Francis Newnham

987
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 2: is our executive producer. Sage Bowman is Head of Podcasts

988
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 2: and special thanks to Elbridge Colby, John mcothwaite and Nancy Cook.

989
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 2: Do subscribe, rate, and review highly this podcast wherever you

990
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 4: Listen to it.