WEBVTT - COVID-19 Chapter 4: Epidemiology 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:04.880 So I'm Katie Berson. I live in Japan with my 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:10.000 husband and two daughters, Louisa and Zuzu. They're five and three. 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:14.319 And we had heard about the coronavirus, which is what 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:16.680 we were calling it at that point, maybe just a 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:19.959 few weeks before we were scheduled to go on our cruise. 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:24.120 The cruise was leaving out of Yokohama coming back to Yokohama. 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.520 It was really ideal because we didn't have to fly anywhere, 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:30.400 which we thought would be safer. But you know, my mom, 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:35.199 who is actually a manager at a hospital laboratory, was 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:37.360 all up in arms. She's like, please see if you 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:40.600 can cancel. I'm really worried about it. And we were like, oh, mom, 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:46.120 it's fine, and so, you know, we we actually had 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:50.120 to meet with the Preventive Medicine Officer BECA because we're 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:52.800 in the service, prior to leaving, just to make sure 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:56.080 our vaccinations were up to date, and we were, you know, 0:00:56.240 --> 0:01:01.160 aware of what the risks were, it didn't really come 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:03.760 into play. We met with her two weeks prior than 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:08.039 the week prior to our departure, and it wasn't a concern. 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.360 It was just wash your hands, you know, like, don't 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:16.200 be stupid. So my husband and my daughters decided not 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:19.160 to get off the ship in Hong Kong because we 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:21.399 didn't want to risk it with the girls. We didn't 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:24.560 really know what we were dealing with, but I went ahead. 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:27.280 I wore that was our second stop on the cruise, 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:31.240 so we're like five days into the cruise. I carried 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.959 my hand sanitizer. We exercised what we thought was you know, 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:38.560 extreme caution, which at this point now we actually know 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:42.800 what extreme caution is. But anyway, I came directly back 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:45.720 onto the boat, got in a shower, washed the clothes. 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:47.720 You know, we were trying to be as careful as 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:49.720 we could. I didn't say hello to the girls. They 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:53.280 were in their kid camp for the day until I 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:58.320 had like thoroughly dejermed. But then, you know, we carried on. 0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:02.400 We didn't have any other real concerns or red flags 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:06.720 with the virus until we got to Okinelwa, which was 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:12.200 our last stop of the cruise, and they said that, 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:16.240 you know, the Japanese Ministry of Health is exercising caution 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:21.360 and needs to scan each individual passenger prior to them deboarding. 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:26.920 So we were delayed somewhere between three and five hours 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:30.440 getting off the boat, because they were scanning everyone, and 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:33.400 so we thought, man, you know, I guess things are 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:36.560 ramping up. It must be, you know, more of a concern. 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:39.520 But we still didn't think, or we didn't know, and 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:42.640 I don't think anyone did know what it really was, 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.800 like an animal that we were dealing with until two 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:49.720 days later when we arrived in Yokohama. And Aaron's this 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.119 part was like so surreal. We're sitting there at our 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:56.960 last dinner and the white stuff must have known what 0:02:57.200 --> 0:02:59.120 was up. They must have been briefs because they didn't 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:02.080 miss a beat. They can continued serving, they didn't pause 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.720 to listen. There wasn't a reaction. But the captain came 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:09.240 on and he spoken English first, and of course the 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:13.320 dining room is primarily English passengers Japanese passengers, so he 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:16.120 spoke in English first. He explained that there was a 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:20.359 passenger who had boarded at Yokohama, stayed on only until 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.760 Hong Kong and then deboarded because he wasn't feeling well 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.840 and Hong Kong was his home and he had tested 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:32.520 positive for the coronavirus, and so you know, my husband 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:33.920 and I just kind of look at each other. We 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:36.080 don't want to react because we don't want to alarm 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:38.920 the kids, so and also we didn't really know what 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:43.920 that meant for us. So we sat and we listened. 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:48.240 And then because we knew what was being said, once 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.920 the announcement was being made in Japanese, it was really 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:54.280 kind of eerie because I'm looking at the Japanese passengers 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:57.560 as they're receiving this information, and I could see the 0:03:57.600 --> 0:04:01.360 colors draining from their face like they were right, you know, 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:04.880 and it was very somber in the dining room. We 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:10.080 finished our meals and and we went back to our 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:13.080 room and we had to call, you know, a couple 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.600 of people that my husband worked with and say, you know, 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:19.560 here's the situation, and we passed. You know, we were 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:21.400 ready to get off the boat the next morning at 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:24.400 seven in the morning. And of course seven o'clock rolls around, 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.640 there's no announcements. Eight o'clock rolls around, there's no announcements. 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.240 Nine o'clock rolls around. The ship is being quarantined for 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:35.760 full fourteen days, and so we just, you know, we 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:39.839 took it as that, you know, it looks like we're 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:41.839 going to be here for a while. We explained to 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:45.520 our girls there are bad germs. We don't think we 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:48.400 have any, but we have to keep them away. We're 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:50.800 going to be washing our hands. You may not leave 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:54.720 the room. And every day was different as far as 0:04:54.760 --> 0:05:00.920 the information that we received. Obviously, the ship was in 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:04.520 reaction mode, so we didn't receive our meals that first 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:06.719 day until like three o'clock in the afternoon, which is 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:10.240 really hard with kids, but we never blame them. There 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:13.520 was never any anger. It was just everybody's trying to 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.800 do their best to keep this thing contained. Really, the 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.000 staff and crew on the ship really rallied to keep 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:24.760 the kids entertained. I mean, gosh, they ate so many 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:29.440 kids meals and they had so many toys delivered. You know, 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:33.200 we just exercised extreme caution and it paid off. We 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:36.360 all came off healthy and well. And then we went 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:40.640 straight from the boat to another fourteen day quarantine. Because 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:44.159 we live on a military base, people look at me 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:47.080 and they're like, God, you've been through something, and it 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:50.640 must have been so hard. But really, like truly, I 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:54.279 got to wake up with my babies snuggled next to 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:57.880 me every day. I didn't have to cook. Like I 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:00.520 didn't have to cook, I didn't have to clean. All 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:03.920 we had to do was play and be together and 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:07.640 hope for the best, you know, like you just control 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:11.560 what you can. And as a military family, I have 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:15.240 never in my entire marriage or since my kids have 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:19.320 been born, had six weeks of my husband all to myself. 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:24.520 And really the outcome of it it was kind of 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:29.800 just this like beautiful moment in humanity, Like so many 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:32.400 people cared. I mean, I was hearing from people that 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.120 I haven't spoken to in probably twenty years. And it 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:37.680 wasn't just like a little message on Facebook. It was 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:41.600 like this like in depth message, like I'm praying for 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:45.320 you. You know, we can send you things, what do you need? 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:49.360 It was just really beautiful. People were delivering breakfast, lunch, 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:53.919 and dinner as if I couldn't cook, Like they wanted 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.520 to do nice things. They wanted to reach out and help, 0:06:56.960 --> 0:07:00.080 and it just made me feel like so loved and 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:04.360 so supported. And I think that would be like a 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:08.479 really great takeaway from this tragedy is you know, like 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:12.440 when we can work together and support each other, it's 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:17.880 a beautiful thing. And we should also value our older generations. 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.240 So you just heard from Katie Berson, who we were 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:06.480 so excited to connect with and talk about her experience 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:10.240 on the Diamond Princess. She was on the Diamond Princess, y'all. Yeah, 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:16.680 like that's about it. Yeah, famous, So thank you so much, Katie. 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:20.440 Also, I just Katie what an incredible human. She had 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:24.680 the most positive outlook I have ever heard from someone 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:28.920 who went through something like that and really helped me 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.240 try and see silver linings in things as well. So 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:34.680 I just really appreciated getting to speak with her too. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:35.679 Absolutely. 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:39.679 Hi, I'm Aaron Welsh and I'm Aaron Alman Updike. 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:43.480 And this is this podcast will Kill You. Hello, Welcome 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:48.439 to chapter four of our Anatomy of a Pandemic series 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:53.319 on COVID nineteen. So far, we've discussed the biology of 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:56.960 the virus, how the disease progresses, and the control strategies 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:59.720 that we're using to slow its transmission, and in this 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:04.479 episode we dive into the epidemiological characteristics of this pandemic. 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.880 We brought back the amazing doctor Carlos del Rio, who 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:10.560 chatted with us in our first coronavirus episode back in 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:14.280 February about the importance of investing in global health. You 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.120 might remember his excellent Dolly Parton quote to. 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:20.240 Go along with that, I sure do so. 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:22.800 In this minisode, we ask him all about the ar 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:25.920 not of the virus, that reproductive rate of the virus, 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:29.360 and how to bring it down, what flattening the curve means, 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.560 and why we see different case fatality rates in different 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:36.240 regions of the world, and the absolute necessity of acting 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:39.240 now to help slow the spread of this disease. But 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.680 before we get into that, we have some business to 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.439 take care of. It's quarantiny time. 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:50.000 What are we drinking for this one? 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:51.719 A pickle Martini? Is that? 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:52.439 Yeah? 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:54.760 That's the one, A pickle martini. 0:09:55.120 --> 0:10:00.280 Quarantini four, our first ever martini. 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:01.360 No boobo bavida. 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.280 Oh well, you're right, that was so long ago. Does 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:07.040 it ease steel trap? Aaron steel cap? Do you know 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:09.800 how difficult it is to like think of I'll be like, oh, 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.120 this is a great recipe, and then then I have 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:15.000 just through all of the old ones. 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:17.520 Oh, if you also didn't know, we have a great 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.479 resource of all of our quarantinis on our website. 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.440 But yes, you can click the quarantini tab. 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:27.040 And all of our plusy burrita is the non alcoholic version, 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:31.880 which we'll post the recipe for this pickle pickled jalapeno martini. 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:34.800 Yeah, you could also just use a pickle if you 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:38.240 don't have pickled klopenias. I didn't have a pickle, so 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:40.720 I had to use pickled hellipenions desperate times, you know, 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:43.640 desperate times. I wasn't going to go to the store 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.760 for a jar of pickles. 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.679 No, of course, not. Shelter in placed Aaron Shelter. 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:48.120 Okay. 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.520 Before diving into the interview, we also wanted to talk 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.680 a bit about the disease ecology since that's kind of 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:58.320 our forte of spillover events in general, and then go 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.480 through a timeline of events to give us an idea 0:11:01.520 --> 0:11:05.520 of the spread of this virus. This timeline is it's intense. 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:09.319 It's intense, but it really gives us a good picture 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:12.080 of what exponential growth really looks like and. 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:15.920 How fast a disease like this can spread across the 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:16.800 entire world. 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:18.439 Math Man who knew? 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:25.960 Who knew? Mathematicians that's who, model or statisticians, good point epidemologists. 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:34.280 Any Ways, Anyways, the ecology of COVID nineteen and its emergence, 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.520 it deserves a more nuanced discussion. Then I'm going to 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.760 give it here because we want to get to the 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:43.440 meat of this episode quickly, right, but we wanted to 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:46.480 touch on a few things. As has been reported in 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:49.719 peer reviewed articles as well as from experts on these episodes, 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:53.800 this virus likely emerged from a bat, which is also 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:58.679 where stars originated from bats. The COVID nineteen virus was 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:02.600 probably passed to another host before infecting humans. This sequence 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:05.800 of events a virus spread from bats to other animal species, 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.440 and then to humans. It's not unprecedented. In fact, this 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.920 has happened in many other disease outbreaks. And it does 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:18.400 not mean in bold underline, it does not mean that 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:22.480 killing bats or destroying their habitat will prevent spillover events. 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.800 So don't get your pitchforks out and start to try 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:26.680 to kill all the bats. 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:30.640 No, we're not blaming bats quote unquote blame. 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:34.880 This is how ecology works. It's just it doesn't mean 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:39.240 that bats are malicious or that we should kill the bats. 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:44.040 In fact, doing those things like culling bat populations or 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:47.200 destroying their habitat that has been shown to actually lead 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:51.040 to an increase in disease outbreaks from bats. And spillover 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:55.800 events from bats. So bat conservation and the preservation of 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:59.120 habitats is actually one of the most important ways that 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:03.760 we can reduce over events and funding back conservation, especially 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:06.360 in regions that may not have the resources to do so. 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:10.600 That is crucial in this fight against emerging infectious diseases. 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:18.480 Also, bats provide really important ecosystem services. They're pollinators, they're 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:23.720 seed dispersers, they eat insects ones that annoy us, for example, 0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:28.440 and they're also one of the most amazing and fascinating 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.600 groups of animals on this planet. This is our personal 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.800 opinion and the role that some bat species play in 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:40.160 some spillover events from wildlife to humans cannot and should 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.600 not be ignored. This is a multifaceted problem. Ignoring it 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:48.120 prevents a complete understanding of the ecology of these events 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.000 and how they happen, and it can ultimately be more 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:55.120 damaging to back conservation. If we want to prevent spillover 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.440 we need the complete picture. If you would like to 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.280 read more about the ecology of bat virus spillover events, 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:04.720 there are a couple of great papers by doctor RAINA. 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:09.000 Plowwright Boop Boop. She's awesome and we'll link to those 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:11.599 on our website. We're also going to put up a 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.720 paper that discusses a lot of the ecosystem services that 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:18.760 bats provide. That's by koons at All on our website 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:22.520 as well. Cool Cool, don't hate the bats. 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:24.000 Don't hate the bats. 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.000 But also don't ignore the role that they play in 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:27.240 these spillover events. 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:32.680 Right, Okay, Now onto the timeline. It's a big one. 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:35.560 Let's start at the beginning. 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.000 It's like eight pages of timeline. 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.680 I know, but you know, we're just going to work 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:43.880 through it. But I will say that you know, this 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.560 is not even a complete timeline, Like, we cut a 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.360 lot of this out. And so what I have one 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:52.040 of the great resources I have found is and so 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:54.280 this is where we got all of this timeline information 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:58.400 basically is from Al Jazeera. They have they're continually updating 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:02.680 a timeline about COVID nineteen across the entire globe, and 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:07.400 so if you want really detailed information, that's the place 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:07.640 to go. 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:09.960 Awesome, Okay, So. 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:15.280 Chinese officials are still looking for the patient zero quote 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:19.040 unquote of COVID nineteen, but it's possible that they will 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.720 never be identified. But what is clear is that the 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:25.360 disease had been spreading for a while before it was 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:30.120 recognized as a novel infection and one of concern. So 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.080 what might be the earliest case of COVID nineteen was 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:36.920 traced to November seventeenth, twenty nineteen, in a fifty five 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:40.960 year old person, but that hasn't been confirmed. If it is, though, 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:44.120 that predates the wet market where the first apparent cluster 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:48.520 of COVID nineteen emerged, so community transmission might have been 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.640 going on for a while before it was recognized, or 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.640 it could have been amplified at that wet market, But 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.200 the market may not have necessarily been the site of 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:59.280 the spillover event, which I. 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.640 Feel like kind of makes sense to me in some cases, 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:05.840 because I know early on they were trying to identify, 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.280 like what animal at the wet market, and we couldn't 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:09.320 really find a good one. 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:10.400 So if it was. 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:14.000 A person at the market who just happened to be 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:18.560 there infected that ended up causing sort of this spread, 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:19.840 that kind of makes sense. 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:20.560 Hmm. 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:22.080 Yeah. 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:25.640 And honestly, a delay in recognizing a novel disease, especially 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:29.560 a respiratory infection whose symptoms can pretty easily be mistaken 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:33.440 for diseases caused by a number of other respiratory viruses. 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:36.880 It's not that unusual. It might take a while before 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:40.360 you realize a that there is an unusual number of 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:44.040 pneumonia cases outside of the norm, and b that these 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:47.200 cases are caused by a new virus that you haven't 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:51.120 seen before. So by late December, there were several cases 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:54.840 of unusual pneumonia caused by an unknown virus in Wuhan, 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.640 and Chinese health officials notified the WHO of this on 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:00.240 December thirty five. 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:05.600 First YEP. The next day, January first, the wet market 0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:09.800 where this first cluster I mentioned was apparent. The Huanan 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:13.080 seafood wholesale market was shut down. At this point, there 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:14.760 were more than forty people infected. 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:19.240 On January seventh, officials announced they had identified a new virus. 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.320 According to the World Health Organization, the novel virus at 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.399 that time was named twenty nineteen n CoV and was 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.159 identified as belonging to the coronavirus family. 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.639 January ninth, the first death from the virus occurs in China. 0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:37.359 January thirteenth, the World Health Organization reported a case in Thailand, 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.359 the first outside China, and a woman who had arrived 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:41.280 there from Wuhan. 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:46.200 January sixteenth, Japan reports a confirmed case again from someone 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:47.760 who had visited Wuhan. 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:55.960 Between January seventeenth and January twentieth. The US, Nepal, France, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, 0:17:56.240 --> 0:18:00.280 South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan all confirmed cases of this 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:01.960 novel coronavirus. 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:07.000 I mean that's a matter of weeks, yep okay. January 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.280 twenty second, the death toll in China jumped to seventeen 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:13.960 with more than five hundred and fifty infections. Airports in 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:18.200 Europe and Asia increased screenings of passengers traveling from China. Wow. 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:20.679 Five hundred and fifty by January twenty second. 0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:22.760 I know, I keep getting chills when I read this 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:23.760 timeline me two. 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:29.640 January twenty third, Wuhan was placed under effective quarantine. At 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.520 this point, the WHO said there was no evidence of 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:35.840 the virus spreading between humans outside of China, and the 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:39.560 outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:40.240 health concern. 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:46.760 January twenty six, new cases were confirmed in the US, Taiwan, Thailand, Japan, 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:47.720 and South Korea. 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:52.119 January twenty seventh, the death toll in China rose to 0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:55.000 one hundred and six, with one hundred in Hubei Province. 0:18:55.480 --> 0:18:59.240 Another four thousand, five hundred and fifteen people in China 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:02.800 were reported to be infected. There were two thousand, seven 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:07.879 hundred confirmed cases in Hubei Province, up from fourteen hundred 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:09.439 twenty three the day before. 0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:14.560 It's like a doubling, essentially m HM. On January thirtieth, 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:19.480 the WHO declared COVID nineteen a global emergency, as the 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.080 death toll in China jumped to one hundred and seventy 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:26.320 with seven thousand, seven hundred and eleven cases reported. On 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.280 this same date, India and the Philippines confirmed their first 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:33.120 cases of the virus, with one infected patient in each country. 0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:37.760 January thirty first. The next day, the number of confirmed 0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:44.040 cases in China jumped to nine thousand, eight hundred nine. Russia, Spain, Sweden, 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:48.000 and the UK all confirmed their first cases of the virus, and. 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:52.040 On February second, the first death outside China was reported 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:53.000 in the Philippines. 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:57.639 On February sixth, the death toll in mainland China rose 0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:00.840 to at least five hundred sixty three, with more than 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:06.480 twenty eight thousand cases confirmed Meanwhile, authorities in Malaysia reported 0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:09.760 the country's first known human to human transmission, and the 0:20:09.880 --> 0:20:12.920 number of people reported infected in Europe. 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:21.240 Reached thirty thirty thirty thirty February sixth. On February seventh, 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:25.480 Lee Wen Lang, a doctor who was among the first 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.960 to sound the alarm over the coronavirus, died, and Hong 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:33.840 Kong introduced prison sentences for anyone breaching quarantine rules. 0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:38.280 On February ninth, the death toll in China surpassed that 0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:40.000 of the two thousand and two two thousand and three 0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:44.480 SARS epidemic, with eight hundred eleven deaths recorded and thirty 0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:48.959 seven thousand, one hundred ninety eight infections. It's worth noting 0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:53.080 the SARS epidemic infected around eight thousand people. 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:57.880 Yes On February eleventh, the WHO announced that the new 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:00.840 coronavirus would be called nineteen. 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:05.119 As of February twelfth, one hundred and seventy five people 0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:08.639 were infected on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship. 0:21:08.800 --> 0:21:12.439 February fourteenth, Egypt became the first country in Africa to 0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:15.479 report a case, and France reported Europe's first death from 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:16.120 the virus. 0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:20.359 As of February seventeenth, there were one thousand, seven hundred 0:21:20.400 --> 0:21:24.880 seventy deaths reported in mainland China and seventy thousand, five 0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:29.640 hundred forty eight cases. Japan also confirmed ninety nine new 0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:33.120 cases of the virus on board the quarantined Diamond Princess 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:33.640 cruise ship. 0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:38.800 February eighteenth saw China's daily infection figures drop below two 0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:42.399 thousand for the first time since January, with the country's 0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:45.640 Health Commission reporting seventy two thousand, four hundred and thirty 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:49.160 six infections on the mainland and one thousand, eight hundred 0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:50.320 and sixty eight deaths. 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:55.119 On February nineteenth, Iran reported two deaths from the coronavirus 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:57.520 hours after confirming its first cases. 0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.960 February twentieth, South Korea report or it's its first death 0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:02.080 from the coronavirus. 0:22:02.600 --> 0:22:05.800 February twenty second, South Korea saw its largest spike in 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:08.160 a single day, with two hundred and twenty nine new 0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:11.880 cases of the virus. On that same day, Italy reported 0:22:11.920 --> 0:22:15.720 its first two deaths, while Iran confirmed a fifth death 0:22:15.840 --> 0:22:20.800 among ten new infections. A sixth death was later confirmed, 0:22:21.080 --> 0:22:23.399 though it wasn't clear whether this case was included in 0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:25.600 the country's twenty eight confirmed cases. 0:22:26.560 --> 0:22:29.959 February twenty six, the global death toll neared twenty eight hundred, 0:22:29.960 --> 0:22:33.960 with a total of around eighty thousand confirmed cases reported globally. 0:22:34.720 --> 0:22:39.320 On the same day, Norway, Romania, Greece, Georgia, Pakistan, North 0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:43.320 Macedonia and Brazil all detected their first cases of the coronavirus. 0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:48.960 On February twenty seventh, Estonia, Denmark, Northern Ireland and the 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:53.360 Netherlands reported their first coronavirus cases. The number of infections 0:22:53.400 --> 0:22:57.560 globally passed eighty two thousand, including more than two thousand, 0:22:57.640 --> 0:22:58.639 eight hundred deaths. 0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:02.720 On March third, Italy announced the death toll in the 0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:06.560 country reached seventy seven, equalling the total deaths in Iran, 0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:07.920 which stood at seventy seven. 0:23:08.960 --> 0:23:12.840 On March seventh, the coronavirus had killed nearly thirty five 0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:15.919 hundred people and infected another one hundred and two thousand 0:23:15.960 --> 0:23:18.560 people across more than ninety countries. 0:23:19.600 --> 0:23:23.439 On March tenth, both Iran and Italy recorded their highest 0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:26.520 death tolls in a single day. A total of fifty 0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:29.639 four people died in Iran over a twenty four hour period, 0:23:29.760 --> 0:23:32.680 while in Italy one hundred and sixty eight new fatalities 0:23:32.680 --> 0:23:36.440 were recorded from the coronavirus. On the same day, Lebanon 0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:39.680 and Morocco reported their first deaths from the virus, while 0:23:39.720 --> 0:23:43.360 Democratic Republic of the Congo, Panama, and Mongolia confirmed their 0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:44.600 first cases of infection. 0:23:45.400 --> 0:23:49.560 On March eleventh, World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak 0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:54.560 a pandemic as Turkey Ivory Coast, Honduras and Bolivia confirmed 0:23:54.600 --> 0:23:59.439 their first cases. In Cutter, infections jumped drastically from twenty 0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:02.320 four to two hundred sixty two in a single day. 0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:07.480 On March sixteenth, New York City's bars, theaters, and cinemas 0:24:07.520 --> 0:24:10.440 are closed down as the number of cases continued to 0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:11.399