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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you? It is time very

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Speaker 1: Thursday morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Matt Perelt at sports doc Matt to follow me across

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Speaker 1: all socials of This podcast is being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by Omaha Steaks dot Com. The UURL is Omaha Steaks

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Speaker 1: able to go buy a couple of almost Steaks packages.

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Speaker 1: stuff with Omaha Steaks dot com slash juice. All right,

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Speaker 1: The night that I warned was coming arrived. So one

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Speaker 1: in two is so much better than zero and three.

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Speaker 1: It is dramatically besides the map, just from a mental standpoint,

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Speaker 1: just to get one right and like all right, fine,

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Speaker 1: got Auburn and st in South Carolina way wrong. Man.

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Speaker 1: Three ranked teams played last night, all three monster victories,

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Speaker 1: huge blowout wins. South Carolina got killed. Penn State got

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Speaker 1: beat up pretty bad at home by Michigan State. They

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Speaker 1: lost by eight. We laid four and then Saint Joe's

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Speaker 1: fouled with point one to go. I didn't see it.

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Speaker 1: I was following it on the apps. It went final three.

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Speaker 1: I thought we were good and then no free throws

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Speaker 1: with point one to go and we lose by five.

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Speaker 1: Just a brutal way to lose. And that's just bad luck.

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Speaker 1: But you know what, we've had a lot of good

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Speaker 1: luck here over the last week. So we go from

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Speaker 1: up three units after Monday to now being down one

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Speaker 1: point one units or more than actually one point six

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Speaker 1: units being down on the week. So it goes quick, man,

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Speaker 1: It flips on you fast, all right. So here's what

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. I'm gonna pause on college basketball today. Okay,

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Speaker 1: we'll just take a breather, take a break from college hoops.

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Speaker 1: I've not bet hockey in a while. Let's start to

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Speaker 1: ramp up the hockey again. Hockey has not been great, Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's start to, you know, see if we can make

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Speaker 1: a dent into the unfortunate deficit that I've put ourselves

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Speaker 1: in here for the NHL, because I do really like

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Speaker 1: betting hockey. I like betting hockey way more than I

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Speaker 1: like betting on the NBA. So far, in the NHL

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Speaker 1: we are six and seven with down one point two units,

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Speaker 1: which is way better than the two and twelve mark

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Speaker 1: in the NBA that I've got. So we're gonna try

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Speaker 1: a full day of betting on hockey. Will that be smart?

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Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll find out whether that's intelligent or not.

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Speaker 1: let's talk bit here some hockey good slate in hockey

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Speaker 1: big slate. Let's start start talking about Dallas in Nashville. Now,

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Speaker 1: I've told you about this guy before, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's intelligent, smart and wise for you to go and

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Speaker 1: follow at PSU O t t oh PSU auto friend

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Speaker 1: of my other show, Friend of this show is a

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Speaker 1: guy who does amazing work with data. I'm a trend better, Okay.

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Speaker 1: I tend to bet trends, and so I look at trends.

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Speaker 1: They don't always cash, but I feel more confident looking

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Speaker 1: at the numbers, looking at trends and then trying to

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Speaker 1: find a way to a bet. Okay, that's what I

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Speaker 1: did tonight. For Nashville and Dallas. The total in the

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Speaker 1: first period is one and a half. It is even money.

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Speaker 1: When you go to PSU Auto's account, his Twitter account

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Speaker 1: at psu auto, and you take a look at what

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Speaker 1: he has uppinned to the top of his account, you

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Speaker 1: will see a couple of very interesting numbers when you

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Speaker 1: pull up Nashville in Dallas, first of which in the

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Speaker 1: first period for Dallas Dallas four and six first period

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Speaker 1: over one and a half goals six and four to

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Speaker 1: The under gets even better, though, when you talk about Nashville,

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Speaker 1: who currently two out of the last ten games have

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Speaker 1: seen a first period over one and a half goals

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Speaker 1: just twenty percent. You go and look at the goalie matchups,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be Sorrows in net who has been

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Speaker 1: very consistent here for Nashville. He's better at home than

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Speaker 1: he is on the road. But you got Ottinger and

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Speaker 1: Jake Ottinger's much better on the road than he is

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Speaker 1: at home. Two point five to five goals against average

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Speaker 1: for Jake Ottinger. These teams met one time in Nashville

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Speaker 1: three to two, win under for the game under six

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Speaker 1: and a half in Dallas four to three, six to three,

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Speaker 1: both wins for the Preds. Both games went over. As

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Speaker 1: we know, Dallas is a very consistent over team at

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Speaker 1: home on the road, they're an under team. This game

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Speaker 1: is on the road. You can bet under six and

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Speaker 1: a half minus one twenty. I will, I'll play this

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Speaker 1: game under, but officially I'm gonna go first period and

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Speaker 1: ride the trend here with sorrows and ottinger and hope

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Speaker 1: for a very slow start, hope for both goaltenders to

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Speaker 1: stand on their head and get even money on this

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Speaker 1: even money first period under one and a half goals

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Speaker 1: Dallas and Nashville. This is fun because I think if

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Speaker 1: you want to take like a big long look at

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Speaker 1: what's going on, you know what I'm actually gonna make

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Speaker 1: up college basketball play. I kind of corrected myself. I

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Speaker 1: had one that I wasn't gonna make, but I only

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Speaker 1: have two hockey plays, so I'm not going to make that.

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Speaker 1: I was going to make two bets in one game

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Speaker 1: and give you officially the six and a half and

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Speaker 1: the first period under. But I don't like doing that

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Speaker 1: because when I do that, you're putting too much on

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Speaker 1: one game, and if I'm wrong, we blow the whole day.

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Speaker 1: So I don't want to do that. So we're not

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Speaker 1: going to do that. So the only official play is

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Speaker 1: under one and a half goals even money for Dallas

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Speaker 1: in Nashville. Second bet for US here College in the

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Speaker 1: NHL is almost like, I'm not going to think too

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Speaker 1: much about it. The Avalanche are taking on the Tempa

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Speaker 1: Bay Lightning. Yes, I know who's in net Okay. I

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Speaker 1: totally understand. We're talking about two very good goaltenders. Vas

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Speaker 1: Leuvsky has been playing very well for Tampa, very well,

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Speaker 1: and you have Georgiev who's been consistently great for the

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Speaker 1: Colorado Avalanche. But if you want to look at just

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Speaker 1: the way things have gone here, and you want to

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Speaker 1: look at just in terms of how these tols have

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Speaker 1: gone for the Avalanche and for Tampa at home, a

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Speaker 1: lot of offense on the road, a lot of offense,

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Speaker 1: I mean, just in terms of where these teams are offensively,

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Speaker 1: just both on the road and at home. Thirty two

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Speaker 1: twenty one in one Colorado to the over. They are

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Speaker 1: the number one over team now in the NHL, Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay is not that much farther, although they are an

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Speaker 1: under team twenty six, twenty four and four to the under.

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Speaker 1: When you kind of slide it out over the last ten,

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Speaker 1: seven and three over the last ten games for the

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Speaker 1: Avalanche have gone over for Tampa Bay five and five.

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Speaker 1: You switch it up to go home and say, all right,

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Speaker 1: where are these guys? At home? Tampa is six three

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Speaker 1: and one to the over at home Colorado On the road,

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Speaker 1: Colorado has been a team that you can feel pretty

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Speaker 1: good about jumping in saying they're gonna go over there

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Speaker 1: eight and two right now over the last ten games,

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Speaker 1: then the number one team right now to the over

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Speaker 1: eight and two. Yes, I know both got there. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I know mich one thirty is expensive, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: bet the over Avs in Tampa mis one thirty one

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Speaker 1: point three units over six and a half. This game

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Speaker 1: probably goes to seven, would be my gut that this

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Speaker 1: game is going to go to seven. But maybe not.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you'll stay at six and a half. But let's

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Speaker 1: go four, three, five to two. Final here between Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay and Colorado. Mich one thirty one point three units

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Speaker 1: over six and a half for Colorado and Tampa so

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Speaker 1: under first period, under one and a half goals, even

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Speaker 1: money Tampa nash Sorry, Dallas Nashville, and over six and

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Speaker 1: a half of the game for the Avalanche and the

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Lightning. Now, there's only one game in college

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Speaker 1: basketball that I was staring at that I actually really liked.

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Speaker 1: And I want to bet when I get cold in

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Speaker 1: college basketball, it's because of the numbers. You know, look

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Speaker 1: at last night. The numbers are really sharp. The books

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Speaker 1: are starting to get their numbers right, excuse me, And

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Speaker 1: they're starting to really get to where they need to

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Speaker 1: be from a numbers perspective. And that's because of the data.

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Speaker 1: You know, the more data we see, the more games played,

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Speaker 1: the books will be excuse me, sorry, clear my throat,

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Speaker 1: Get a drink. The books are going to be very

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Speaker 1: much inclined to have numbers that are going to be like,

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Speaker 1: all right, where do we find angles. Let's talk about

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Speaker 1: Vermont hosting New Hampshire. Now I covered you and h

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Speaker 1: for a while. I watch a lot of games in Burlington.

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Speaker 1: I watch Vermont is really really hard to play against

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Speaker 1: at home, and consistently Vermont is just one of these

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Speaker 1: teams where they consistently win, and they consistently take care

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Speaker 1: of business. This year has been really really weird, and

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Speaker 1: I mean like really really weird. Vermont this year is

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Speaker 1: two and seven at home ATS two, and You and

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Speaker 1: h is T ten and three on the road ATS.

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Speaker 1: This is sort of just like a fuel play for me. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is because I've watched this enough and when you

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Speaker 1: see a number pop up like this and you're like,

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Speaker 1: wait a minute, all these numbers. It's kind of like

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Speaker 1: last night a little bit with Auburn and you're like,

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Speaker 1: how is Auburn? And I thought that was like, how

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Speaker 1: is Auburn laying eleven and a half points? What they

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Speaker 1: went by fifty? Like they just game was never close.

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Speaker 1: This has been somewhat of a house of horrors for

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Speaker 1: you and h Okay. It's you don't know, geography. Hampshire

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Speaker 1: and Vermont are next to each other. A lot of times.

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Speaker 1: These kids are being recruited by both New Hampshire and

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Speaker 1: by Vermont. Vermont just gets the better kids. When the

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Speaker 1: number pops at eight, I go wow, especially given the

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Speaker 1: fact that the New Hampshire is you know, they're one

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Speaker 1: in four in their last five however, ATS, but they

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Speaker 1: are ten and three, ten and three on the road,

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Speaker 1: but they've been struggling okay at home against Biggington laying

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Speaker 1: eight and a half, they won by six. Against Albany,

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Speaker 1: laying four and a half, they lost by seven. They

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Speaker 1: covered on the road as nine point dogs, winning by

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Speaker 1: sixteen against Jumass Lowell. Against Bryant they were catching six

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Speaker 1: points on the road, lost by nineteen. Against Maine, they're

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Speaker 1: laying four. They won by three. Vermont had a stretch

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Speaker 1: of five straight games where they won and they covered

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Speaker 1: last three games. They have won two of the three,

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Speaker 1: but have not covered on any of them. But there

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Speaker 1: have been big numbers. Twelve and a half, won by

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Speaker 1: two on the road against Maryland Baltimore County, laying fourteen.

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Speaker 1: They lost by two to New Jersey Institute of Technology.

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Speaker 1: That's a game you can't lose. Bington, they're laying fifteen.

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Speaker 1: They won by thirteen. The only game Vermont has lost

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Speaker 1: so far in twenty twenty four was that road game

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Speaker 1: two games ago against NJIIT. So the numbers have been

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Speaker 1: big for Vermont. So the numbers come down a little bit.

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Speaker 1: The number is eight. Now, my gut tells me this

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Speaker 1: number going to climb a little bit and you may

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Speaker 1: get eight and a half. I don't hate a play

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Speaker 1: on eight and a half, but I really wouldn't go

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Speaker 1: much higher. I don't love nine, don't like nine and

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Speaker 1: a half. I would definitely keep this at eight if

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Speaker 1: you can, just because I don't want to get into

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Speaker 1: three possessions in three threes. Just you need touch like

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Speaker 1: a monster victory, a huge blowout in order to cover

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Speaker 1: that pig of a number. So I don't want it

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Speaker 1: to go there. So eight or eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: You guys always said to ask me on the Discord channel, like, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I didn't get eight, can I get eight and a half?

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Speaker 1: Or I didn't get eight and a half? Can I

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Speaker 1: get nine? That's where I would be a little bit concerned.

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Speaker 1: Nine eight and a half would be my stop sign.

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Speaker 1: Nine would be like, okay, no, we're just no, we're

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Speaker 1: not going to play it if it races that high.

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Speaker 1: But I got eight, and I think eight is good enough.

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Speaker 1: I think they win by nine or by ten here

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Speaker 1: up against New Hampshire, and I look, I'm really pretty

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Speaker 1: excited to watch this game, because look, these are games,

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Speaker 1: by the way, Sometimes these games can be found in

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Speaker 1: the extra category. So just so you know, we're open

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Speaker 1: up at nine, by the way, so it's down to

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Speaker 1: eight back and forth to eight and a half. So

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Speaker 1: you may actually get seven and a half. You might

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Speaker 1: get a better number than me in the morning, but

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Speaker 1: that may be because of New Hampshire's numbers. With where

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire is. It may pop up and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: so New Hampshire is ten and three, So people are

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Speaker 1: gonna say, all right, go ahead and bet the dog here.

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Speaker 1: But home teams in college basketball, it's been really difficult

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Speaker 1: to win on the road, a lot of blowouts. Kempom

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Speaker 1: has this as a nine point win. So we've got

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Speaker 1: an eight number. I'm gonna lay it with Vermont. Vermont

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Speaker 1: minus eight up against New Hampshire tonight. Gonna go to

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Speaker 1: the America East Conference a little bit, but that's still

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Speaker 1: in college basketball. Play on the night is Vermont minus

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Speaker 1: eight all right, first period under one and a half goals,

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Speaker 1: Dallas Nashville even money, one unit over six and a

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Speaker 1: half goals, Avs, Tampa Bay Mius one thirty. Lay a

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Speaker 1: little extra juice because we're only playing even money on

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Speaker 1: the first bet, and then Vermont minus minus eight for

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Speaker 1: one point one units with a miss one ten number

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Speaker 1: there in America East. Okay, three to oh one and

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Speaker 1: two oh and three. Let's bounce back here. Just a

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Speaker 1: winning week, still very much in our target range. Let's

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Speaker 1: have some fun here as we head towards the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Weekend without football, oh my little daytona little golf. Gotta

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Speaker 1: find other things to bet. Spring training opening up. We

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Speaker 1: won't bet spring training games for a while, but we'll

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Speaker 1: see what is happening with other things. We're gonna bet

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Speaker 1: here because we're at a football season, which is a bummer.

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Speaker 1: Minus Matt Paroll. Follow me across all socials at sports

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Speaker 1: Doc Matt every morning. The Oliducee podcast being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Omas Steakes dot com