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Speaker 1: Joining us now here live on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia is

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Speaker 1: Barbara and Bernard, chief investment officer at Windcrest Capital. So

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Speaker 1: so one of the things that some financial analysts are

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Speaker 1: looking at going forward, Barbara's is whether or not we

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Speaker 1: can go back to the kind of halcyon days of

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Speaker 1: nineteen or whether or not we we have some fundamental

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Speaker 1: changes afoot in in the global economy. Let's focus on

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Speaker 1: the US economy to keep it a little bit more straightforward. Uh,

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Speaker 1: there are some changes happening with with labor. Uh, there's

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Speaker 1: a possibility that you know, we we have because of

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Speaker 1: reshoring and and um friends shoring and that sort of thing,

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Speaker 1: that we see higher levels of inflation permanently. Do you

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Speaker 1: see it that way? And if not, what is the

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Speaker 1: Barbara and Bernard view of the next framework? Well, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much for having me on. UM. I think what

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Speaker 1: we really are talking about here is how a higher

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Speaker 1: cost of capital changes what defines a good business. And

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Speaker 1: the US has done so well for so long because

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Speaker 1: these tech companies were great business models, UM and they

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Speaker 1: were growing quite quickly too, and at full penetration, they

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Speaker 1: don't have the growth they used to have, and this

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Speaker 1: get big at any price because the custominy was free

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Speaker 1: um is over. So what we see is a rotation

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Speaker 1: out of tech and out of the US and into

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Speaker 1: more emerging markets and commodity stocks um. And I think

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Speaker 1: you're starting to see that this year, and that in

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Speaker 1: part explains why the nastacks down and an index like

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Speaker 1: the Dow is down eight UM. So we just think

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Speaker 1: the next ten years has is very different leadership. And Barbara,

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Speaker 1: let's not forget with the end of free money in

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Speaker 1: essence means that you may well find a situation where

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Speaker 1: a lot of these business models in the world of

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Speaker 1: in particular unsustainable. So do we get a series of

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Speaker 1: arguably well bankruptcies will fire sales here taking places that

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Speaker 1: does become difficult for funding, Absolutely, I think so. So

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Speaker 1: we call that profitless prosperity, right, and that's what the

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Speaker 1: market rewarded for the last decade, and now people want

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Speaker 1: real businesses. When when you look at FED policy for

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Speaker 1: next year, given all of this, uh UM, there is

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Speaker 1: some discussion that perhaps the FED will be cutting by

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Speaker 1: some time in the latter half of next year. Others

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Speaker 1: say it will take much longer, and and the reason

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Speaker 1: for that would be that they want to stay higher

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Speaker 1: for longer. How do you see that shaping up? So

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Speaker 1: I think that's the biggest risk out there right now

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Speaker 1: because the market, the cost of capital is still negative

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Speaker 1: in real terms, so people always want to buy the

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Speaker 1: dip and their conditioned and the in the You know,

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Speaker 1: there's still some animal spirits out there where Pal speaks

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Speaker 1: and he says something and everyone focuses on the positive.

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Speaker 1: And so when he spoke at the Bookings Institution in November,

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Speaker 1: what I focused on was he said, the Federals are

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Speaker 1: quote unquote will push rates higher than previously expected and

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Speaker 1: keep them there for an extended period. What that means

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Speaker 1: is you he's trying to um readjust expectations around the

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Speaker 1: dot plot. So if he reiterates that on Wednesday, I

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Speaker 1: think you can have a material impact on the market.

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Speaker 1: And again that goes back to which business models are viable.

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Speaker 1: What people are thinking is as you said, oh, we'll

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Speaker 1: have a cut in the second half, and you know,

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Speaker 1: back to the races, and I think this time is different.

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Speaker 1: You can say great, you know, inflation went from nine

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Speaker 1: to seven, but it's still was a long way from two.

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Speaker 1: And so I just feel like the road back to

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Speaker 1: the goal of two will be longer and bumpier than

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Speaker 1: the market is pricing in. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: the past five rate cycles, the average period before you

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Speaker 1: lower rates is eleven months um. And so if we

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Speaker 1: have yet, you know, so fifty basis points on Wednesday, shure,

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Speaker 1: that's kind of consensus. Again, as some in Q one,

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Speaker 1: you're not going down. And by the way, if you do,

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Speaker 1: it's because it's a master procession, which is not good.

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Speaker 1: So I think some of these animal spirits needs to

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Speaker 1: just be you know, tamed honed in a bit barbarat

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Speaker 1: in twenty seconds of there is given as a top

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Speaker 1: given a couple of your top pigs. You know, I'm

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Speaker 1: really fond of India and China just because so much

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Speaker 1: of the growth is coming out of those markets going forward,

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Speaker 1: and they're cheap. So if you look at a company

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Speaker 1: like make my Trip, it's the Expedia of India. It's

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Speaker 1: going it's profitable at the Evada level now, so it

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Speaker 1: took advantage of cheap money to get big. It's growing

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Speaker 1: at a kgar and it's on you know, twelve times.

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Speaker 1: Eva thought to me, that is a great vibe. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much, Barbara. Barbara and Burnaba Chief Investment obviously

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Speaker 1: at Windcrest Capital. We've got a lot more on the way.

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Speaker 1: This has been big. Well, we mentioned equity markets and

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Speaker 1: also currencies in the Asia Pacific. What about bitcoin, well,

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Speaker 1: it's trading down now, off about eight tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 1: The leaders quote sixteen eight per coin.