WEBVTT - BONUS: Fringe Panel Aftershow, Why the Heavy Hand of the State Is Getting Heavier 0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:08.240 Welcome to Merrin Dorogs Money the After Show. This is 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:11.000 the bit where we look again at everything you heard 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:13.160 in our regular podcast. Some of it we like, some 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:15.040 of it we're not so certain about. So we're going 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:17.919 to talk about that a bit. I'm Maren Zumsep Web. 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:20.680 This week, John Steppe is a senior reporter at Bloomberg 0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:23.840 and author of the Daily Money Distilled newsletter, joins me 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:26.159 to discuss the two panels I did at the end 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:29.880 of August as part of the Fringe Festival in Edinburgh. Now, 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:31.720 there were two of these and you can listen to 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:34.000 them wherever you get your podcasts on the Merrin Brooks 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:36.159 Money Feed. We had some brilliant guests that were some 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.440 very interesting themes. But of course John, you weren't there. 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:43.800 I know, I feel bad, but I was attending. I 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:46.400 was attending one of my kids gigs somewhere. 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.280 Yeah, you just said that. You think that's cooler. You 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.200 think going to your kids gigs is cooler than Yeah, okay, 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:52.600 right at it? 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:54.680 I think I think it may be. Also, I would 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:58.600 just say google dement shabos because then I can win 0:00:58.680 --> 0:00:59.840 them up a boot being nipple. 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:05.039 They can't be never have to be in the same 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:06.039 industry as you. 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.440 Oh okay, I thought financial journalism was pretty rock and roll. 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:12.520 But no, if your children become pop stars, trust me, 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:14.720 it's got nothing to do with you being a senior 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:15.840 reporter at Bloomberg. 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:17.399 Yeah, okay. 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:21.800 Anyway, just for the record, John was invited. He refused 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:25.240 to come. He said children were more important than his career. 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:32.080 That's what he said, right, yeah, yeah, right, So John, 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.640 you really missed out. We had James Anderson, who used 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:37.720 to be the co manager of Scottish Mortgage, which so 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:39.839 many of were listener at all, and he was fascinating. 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:43.080 We had Russell Aper, our favorite strategist. We had Ana 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.720 McDonald who so good on UK small caps. We'll come 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:47.720 back to that. We had Jim Mellon, you know, one 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:51.120 of the UK's greatest investing gurus. We had Simon Evans, 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.360 very funny comedian, although we did have to edit some 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:56.160 bits him out I think in the end, or maybe 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:57.720 we didn't. Maybe we didn't let it out everything we 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:01.440 should have. Who knows. Anyway, So as fantastic and a 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:05.080 couple of themes came up again and again and again 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.080 in the conversations and they were a lot of talk 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:10.960 about the UK, state of the UK, investing in the UK, etc. 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.160 Jimmelon was really interesting on that, and you and I 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:15.040 have both written about that recently, so we'll come back 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:19.920 to that, but also a lot on big government, the 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.160 role of government, the extent which government should be involved 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:26.320 in everything, the way that risk has been socialized, in 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:30.160 particular since the Great Financial Crisis, and then socialized again 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.000 and again and again during the pandemic, and how we're 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:35.120 now in a situation where the role of the state 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:38.080 really is very different or perceived to be very different 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.600 to the role of the state ten to fifteen years ago, 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:43.639 and how that in turn means taxes in the UK 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:47.560 can only go up, which of course is interesting in 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:49.160 that you know, and I've written about this a lot 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:51.440 over the years that in the main it's always been 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.560 incredibly hard in the UK to get taxation. Is a 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:58.120 percentage of GDP up over thirty six thirty seven percent 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.360 and keep it there. But it looks like other guests 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:03.919 was Paul Johnson from The IFS. He's just just brilliant, 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:06.480 so interesting, and you know, he said, well it has 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:08.560 to doesn't matter if it's been difficult in the past, 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:10.800 there's no choice. We have to get back to revenues 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:14.840 up because otherwise we can't pay for social care, for 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:18.040 the triple lock, for net zero, for you know, the 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.079 nightmare that is the NHS, etc. There's no choice here. 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:23.760 So we had a lot of conversations around those things, 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:25.480 and it was kind of depressing, to be honest. 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:29.680 I mean, I'm sorry, I messed it. It's a degree 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:33.000 and the guests, I mean, a stupidous lay up. 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:35.400 I thought. 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:40.600 I thought Paul Boy's very interesting, and I thought one 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:42.520 of the things that Boy's interesting is that he sort 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:47.040 of seemed like, on the one hand, yeah, there was 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.000 this kind of thing that is no option but big government. 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:51.400 And on the other hand he was saying that politicians, 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:55.200 he was gradually quite an advocate for, they should stop 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:58.720 doing stuff and just let everything settle for. 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:01.400 A whale, which is clear way beyond what they're do 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:02.360 people doing. 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.160 Ex Prime ministers are the most disappointed group of people 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:08.560 in the world, and that they awry. They walked through 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:10.840 the door of Number ten going yes, finally I can 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:12.600 implement my ideas and I'm going to do this, and 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:13.640 I'm going to do this, and I'm going to do 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:15.520 this and then they look around and realize that actually 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:17.440 they can't really do any of those things, is not 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:19.800 the power is not really with them as well them 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:21.400 in the way they thought it did, had a few 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:21.840 weeks to do it. 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:26.160 To be fair, yes, I mean, I don't know whether 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.040 that Prime minister is the most disappointed or the rest 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:31.960 of us the most disappointed about that. But I think this, 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:35.520 if you read Tony Blair's memoirs, one of the things 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:37.640 he's disappointed about. I think he wasn't there for much 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:39.640 longer because he kind of feels he learned on the 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:41.440 job and could do more. And I think we probably 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:44.400 all feel about after we've left a job. The other 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.320 thing I suppose I think is yes, you can't. It 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.480 is quite difficult, but I do have I do think 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.200 governments can make a difference over a long term. I 0:04:53.240 --> 0:04:56.840 think one of the things that is problematic about our 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:59.120 politics and so on is that you know, you'll get 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.120 prime minis or chances or whatever saying I'm going to 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:03.520 make the economy grow next year, or you know, I'm 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:05.520 going to transform the education system in three years, I'm 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.840 going to level up in ten years, or have you. 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:11.400 These things take decades, but government can make a big, 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:14.480 big difference. I mean, part of the reason that our 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:17.080 growth over the last fifteen years has been terrible has 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:20.320 been down to government policy, quite clearly being down to 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:22.720 the government policy. But they can't turn it around this 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:25.400 year or possibly even within the term of a parliament. 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:29.160 But if you get competition policy right, education policy right, 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:35.400 infrastructure investment right, the planning policy, are you times three right, 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.600 then in ten years time will be a bit better off. 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:39.800 There's this great quote which. 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.680 And I kin of thought that really the most talent 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.040 thing was that even someone who was sort of saying 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.920 more as we do need does tax take was setting 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:51.720 us in But the states should try to stop doing 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.000 so much and should stop missing a boat. 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:56.359 You know, I mean, there is. 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:01.120 There are some sort of things we could at least 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.520 look at, you know, I mean, like the triple lock 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:07.600 is quite a good example. It's like, I am not 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:10.600 I'm not happy about the way that this is constantly 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:14.640 framed as you know, kind of intergenerational warfare, and I 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.960 have no I don't like the way that we kind 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:20.760 of we kind of have the conversation now where you know, 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:23.400 like twenty years ago everyone pitied pensioners and now everyone 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:26.240 hates them. But what I would say is that the 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:28.880 triple lock now is kind of stupid. It's like, we 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:30.680 should have it to it should be a single lock. 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:33.039 It should be a single lock. To Cepi, we are 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:36.279 a floor of zero percent, so that the state pension 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:38.800 has never actually cut. But if we've decided that it's 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.560 big enough in real terms now, there's no reason to 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:44.320 you know, raise it way wages for example, which is 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:46.960 probably what's going to happen this year. And there's no 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.360 reason that state pension should get a real terms pair eyes, 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:53.360 and particularly at a time whenever everyone essentially seems to 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:57.320 agree that it's now generous enough. So how about we 0:06:57.400 --> 0:06:59.120 just get rid of the other two locks and kind 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:02.279 of like put that one then. I mean, that's that's 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.640 a really manor easy move. It doesn't require spending any 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:08.640 more money. It would save a fortune over the longer 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:12.760 run relative to what it's going to be. I mean, 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.960 that's just that's just that's just one idea, you know, 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.320 it's not I wouldn't see that this stuff is quite 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:22.760 as the old thing is the lack of political courage, 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:27.720 because somebody will complain about it in headline somewhere. 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:29.880 Yeah, no, I was just going to say that. One 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:31.360 of the other things we talked about in terms of 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:35.360 easy wins, in terms of spending is the extraordinary amount 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:39.440 of money that the government gives to other semi governing 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.920 bodies gives to you know, we talked before about, didn't 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:43.880 we about term of production of elites in the UK, 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:46.720 et cetera on a different podcast with Peter Touchon, And 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.880 you know, it is absolutely extraordinary when you sit down 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:51.520 and look at it, the amount of money that is 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:56.160 handed over the by the government to vast bureaucratic organizations 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:59.400 to fight for the government. Yeah, and you know, we 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:01.560 have the opposits for that. We have an opposition in 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:04.040 parliament to fight the government. We don't need the stake 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.400 to give large amounts of money to other organizations to 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:08.560 slight the government. So this is another one of those 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:10.120 things that came up a couple of times in these 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.920 conversations that you know, money just flows all over the 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:15.440 place to all sorts of places you don't really expect 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:17.320 and it doesn't necessarily need to. 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:18.360 Yeah. 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.640 And also the other thing that would was reading the transcripts, 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:25.040 there was a lot of talk about business getting into 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:27.840 politics and how that was bad, and I agree with that, 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:32.760 but business is still much more accountable than the actual 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:35.640 lobby groups that are causing the majority of the problems 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.520 in the first place. You know, it is kind of 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:43.439 like the third sector, and they can charity groups that 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:47.679 have become you know, essentially kind of like political wings 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:53.800 for certain particular kind of like issues, and the businesses 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:58.200 all kind of follow suit in a semi reluctant, sort 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:02.200 of mostly perfect by the HR departments to justify their 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:04.640 existence kind of way. But as soon as you know, 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.800 you hit a huddle like rising interest rates. I mean, 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:10.560 you look at how fast everyone's rolling back on ESG 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:13.679 from a corporation point of view now that it's no 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:18.560 longer as politically popular in the States, for example, and. 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:20.480 So easy to make money off. 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:21.760 Yeah, exactly. 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:24.480 Yeah, And so you know, the good thing about businesses 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:27.199 is if nothing else, they are always accountable to the 0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:30.280 bottom line. So if they do things that are too stupid, 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:32.760 then most of the time that will have an impact 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:34.520 on the bottom line and they have to roll back 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.599 from that. Butas the you know, the charitable and the 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:42.160 NGO sector is not at all accountable on that front. 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:44.319 And it's the amount of money that's going to them 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:46.320 is not very visible. I mean, there was a really 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:51.160 interesting I mean, Rory Stewart is obviously a guy who 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:54.839 said I doubt very much that I'm one of the 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:58.719 same political kind of like him wavelength as him, But 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.280 he's just written a book in one of our Bloomberg 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.600 colleagues review this morning, and he was saying that he's 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:06.679 kind of pointing things out about the lackey you know, 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:09.600 political courage and governments by headline, and also pointing out 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:13.200 that during the period when everyone was complaining about austerity, 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:16.320 Now you can take that term austerity where a pinched saw. 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:20.720 But the point I was making was that the budget 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:25.800 spent on the overseas aid department like shot up in 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:28.319 real terms at the same time as everything domestic was 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.000 getting cut. And you're kind of, well, you know this, 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:34.920 it's that kind of thing. It's like that there is money, 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.920 there are savings to be had. The NHS is definitely 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:41.200 not the most efficient way to run a healthcare system. 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:43.000 Now, now, don't you dare say a thing like that 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:46.080 about our NHS. I won't have it, not on this podcast. 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:49.480 So again I'm just clapping stop that now, listen. 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:53.319 That was a really interesting part in the conversation that 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:55.800 Pamel has on the second day about the NHS about 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:58.680 exactly that, and I think it was Jim someone started 0:10:58.720 --> 0:10:59.640 talking about the white. 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:03.800 Drugs education, and you know, I just want to say 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:07.240 something about innovation that everyone here will be familiar with 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:10.200 the new drugs, which are the weight loss drugs wega 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.480 V and OZMPK and all that sort of stuff, nov 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.640 nor disc and Eli Lilly. At the moment, the biggest 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:20.079 selling drug in history until about two years ago was Humera, 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:24.640 which is used for autoimmune disease, particularly rheumatoid arthritis, and 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.200 it sold fourteen billion dollars a year at its peak. 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:31.040 It's about to go off patent. These drugs next year 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.599 will sell more than one hundred billion dollars between the 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:37.679 two companies. That's unbelievable. And they're having these positive effects 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.839 that are radiating so much so that probably everyone in 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:43.040 this country over the age of forty should be taking them. 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:47.200 They reduce heart risk, they reduce obesity, they reduce diabetes, 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.920 they reduce all the things that are costing the NHS 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:53.120 so much money. So you want another optimistic thing, it's 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.719 that we have the potential in the next ten or 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.439 twenty years using some drugs that are here and now 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:01.959 to take the strain off. The NHS do not have 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:05.679 people waiting in corridors in the NHS because they won't 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.679 be obese, they won't have cardio disease, they won't have 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:09.120 the care. 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:13.839 And I am so interested in this in that you know, 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:18.160 one of the biggest expenses for the NHS is obesity. 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.160 You know already at the moment twenty five percent plus 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:23.520 of the UK population is obese. Another thirty eight per 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.719 centers say are overweight look for you as and it's 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:30.400 even worse. And you know, we know, we know that 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.640 that's not going to go away by itself. There's every 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:34.720 diet book in the world that every body of advice 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:37.960 you can possibly get. It's just not going to happen 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.280 that all those people who are troubled by obesit are 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:42.319 suddenly going to be not obese anymore. We know that's 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.480 not going to happen, particularly with the huge power of 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.000 big food and their horrible processed foods, et cetera. And 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.200 the way our doubts have changed, people will not become 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:51.640 We're all going back to the nineteen seventies in terms 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:56.400 of BMIs right, And ten percent of the NHS budget 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.120 is spent on diabetes and complications from diabetes, So that's 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.880 going to be seventeen teen percent in a decade or so. 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.160 And libsitis, you know, is linked to link to cancers, 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:07.839 to heart disease, to dementia, to depression, I don't know 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.520 name anything else. It's linked to almost everything that is 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.439 thoroughly unpleasant for the patients and thoroughly unpleasant for the 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.480 NHS and of course anyone attempting to finance the NHS. Now, 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:20.960 if you can give everyone a drug, that will mean 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.160 that they dropped fifteen percent of their body weight in 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:26.280 a year and every year for five years, or however 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:30.000 however much weight there is to lose. That's an absolute miracle. 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:35.240 Transformative for people's lives, transformative for the NHS, and hence 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:39.960 transformative for the public finances, Transformative for the way people work. 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.000 Think about the number of people we have on disability. 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:46.079 Imagine if all that went away, and rutually transformative for 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:46.760 big food. 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.400 Yeah, I mean I think is I mean I think 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:54.760 that we give THEE and ozam pic of like just 0:13:55.160 --> 0:14:00.520 either you will potentially be hugely transformative. Also, like the 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.800 booze industry when he had colleagues, was pointing out recently that, 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.760 you know, because it seems to kind of like block 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.280 all cravings, not just cravens for food. Like you know, 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:13.719 if you if you get a problem with gambling, then 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:15.319 you stop wanting to gamble and things like that. So, 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:17.560 you know, I think it could be absolutely amazing. 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:19.440 Yeah, well, there has been some I saw a bit 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:21.360 of research on it from Morgan Sanley the other day. 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.760 I was telling you about it that once people start 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:25.560 taking these drugs, I mean I think that you know, 0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:27.080 the sample is very small with the MAM, so you 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:30.080 mustn't get too carried away. But they snacked less. And 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.080 when they cut back on food, people are not cutting 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.520 back on vegetables, misteaks. They're cutting back on high sugar, 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.920 high fat, really processed food, a high margin food. You know, 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.080 they're cutting back on the high margin stuff. There's a 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:43.880 big risk in there for the food companies. I'm not 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:45.080 sure they're taking that seriously. 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:50.840 Yeah, I think that's a really good point. And yeah, 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:53.760 I suppose you could say, oh no, the tax base 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:57.280 will be in trouble. Then there'll be no more vices 0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:57.800 to tax. 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.600 Well, that's fair. But you know, we don't tax big 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:03.400 food any extra, do we? So doesn't it make it? 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:05.440 What difference does it make to the taxman if we 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.400 had a big pearl of vegetables or a big pile 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:09.280 of processed food. Let me think through that one. I 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.800 haven't talked through that one yet, but I will. You know. 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:13.720 I was just thinking that this is this might be 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.760 good for the NHS, might then be good for the 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:17.480 tax payer, might you know, even be good for But 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:19.640 I don't know people who reduce fresh food as opposed 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:21.360 to processed food. 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:24.720 Yeah, I mean it'd be great, And I mean I'm 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:26.840 sure this was said joking. Leave that the thing was, Yeah, 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.160 if people don't day of obesity, they will just level 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:30.200 on un day or something. 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:35.960 Was Absolutely Paulson was absolutely not convinced by the whole 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:37.880 weight loss drugs will transform the world thing. 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:42.160 When the NHS was founded, it was treating large numbers 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:46.320 of people with infectious diseases, which covid apart is no 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:48.680 longer a big part of the issue. People are surviving 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:53.200 those as viving older. Actually, heart diseases down a lot, 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:55.760 but we're teaching a lot more people with cancer and 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:58.360 dementia and so problem with health is you save them 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:00.400 from this stuff, the buggers go and get something else 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:02.920 later on, and often it could be even more expensive. 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:06.400 If someone dies at forty, it cheap, whereas you know 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:08.880 if they lived to ninety, then they're going to be expensive. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.200 So I'm actually less optimistic about I mean about give 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.600 the long run effects on the NHS of this, because 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:16.800 you know, people. 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.360 Malon very much was so they were saying, yeah, a 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:21.160 little bit of friction in there, you know, our panels 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.520 alway there a little friction, So that was that was interesting. 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:27.040 But I was very taken by this idea that that, 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:29.520 you know, a drug can transform life. And I know 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:31.600 that feels a little bit too simplistic and it's bound 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:33.480 to und up having you know, nasti side effects, and 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.120 I was thought of yet because that's just the way. 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:37.240 But if it didn't, this could be amazing. 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:39.880 And also, I mean, it's going to increase people's health 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:41.280 spines as well, and. 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:42.760 How could that possibly be bad? 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.920 I mean, yeah, you know, I say you had the 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.040 ten years to everyone's working life, or in a in 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:51.280 a positive way rather than that a girl of going 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:54.000 work for an ten years kind of thing. I don't 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.440 really see. I mean, this is the whole point. Ultimately, 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.600 the human endeavor isn't it to live longer and healthier? 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:05.160 Area? It could It could transform our productivity numbers. Think 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:07.640 if you think about companies in the number of sick 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:09.440 days that people take and that kind of thing, and 0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:12.239 the difficulties of working when you don't feel great. I mean, 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:13.359 a lot of the stuff could change. 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:18.679 We're talking about polls, and obviously antibiotics and vaccines are 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:21.320 the things that you know, the other health measures that 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:24.440 can transform things. So it's you know, this this could 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:28.920 be something similar given the skal of the obesity form 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.760 and of course it's bad it is, and how and. 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:37.080 How obviously, how appallingly unbelievably difficult it is to stop 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.400 being abyes. You know, point Britanny, it's easy, it quite 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.119 clearly isn't so for drug and sorted out and help everybody. 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:44.320 Now we should move on from this. I can't quite 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:45.879 see where we're going to get hate mail on this, 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:50.360 but I'm feeling hate now. The other thing that came 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.679 up because I did ask everybody where would you invest? 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:55.440 You know, what are you going to buy now? And 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:57.840 we heard a lot about the different sectors et cetera. 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.480 But there was some agreement across the board that UK 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:04.000 equities are really kind of okay, And Jim Allen, who 0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:07.280 is always very interesting on investment, did say towards the 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:09.800 end he said, the UK market is the cheapest in 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.000 the world and you should get out there and buy 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.359 UK investment trust trading on a discount to then that 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:16.160 as a value. 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:19.080 Do that, he said, I was talking to Sandy about 0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:20.800 it earlier on and I think the UK is the 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:23.479 cheapest market in the world and i'd buy UK investment 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:27.680 trusts that are selling at a discount to their fundamental values. 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.040 And one of the things that's not appreciated about the 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:31.920 United Kingdom apart from and you made a very good 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.320 point by the way, about the vulnerability of British companies 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:37.920 being to take over. But we are also huge investors 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.240 in other countries, so it works both ways. We're a 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.399 much bigger creditor nation than we are a debtonation. So 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.159 you know that we have very large investments overseas, and 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.800 particularly in our listed companies, which are I think the 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.360 foot see one hundred and seventy five percent overseas revenues, 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:56.720 which is fantastic. So invest in the UK and look anyone. 0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.240 So I went away to have a look at the 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.879 discounts on investment trusts and see where they were, because 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:04.240 you know, if I read about the stuff a lot, 0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:06.480 but I mean, it takes full attention into exactly where 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:08.440 they were. And it turns out that, you know, we 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:11.280 have got the average investment and the average discount on 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:13.600 investment trust at the kind of levels where you usually 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.560 see a fairly mammoth rebound afterwards. So at the kind 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.400