1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: This is Cobad Babnaghri and you're listening to Switched on 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg ne EF. The 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: global energy transition was never going to be easy, but 4 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: the investment assumptions underpinning it and now being fundamentally rewritten. Tariffs, 5 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: inflation and geopolitical instability have upended financial models, while political 6 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:24,080 Speaker 1: backlash against ESG investing and a renewed appetite for fossil fuels, 7 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: driven in part bay Ais insatiable power demand are reshaping 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: capital flows. Yet amid the volatility, one thing remains certain. 9 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 1: Electricity demand is forecaster search, even without AI's explosive load growth. 10 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: For investors and banks navigating this uncertainty, the challenges identifying 11 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: which technologies, whether in clean energy or fossil fuels, can 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 1: deliver both resilience and returns in an increasingly electrified world. 13 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: So how to investors and banks a just course, Where 14 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: can they find fresh investment opportunities and how do they 15 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: engage with their existing portfolio. On today's show, we bring 16 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: you a discussion from the BNF Summit London, where Jonathan 17 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: luan BNF set of Finance and Investment Research, spoke with 18 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: Ulrik Frugman, Cocio Environmental Strategies Group at BNPP Asset Management, 19 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: Ralph Ibbentdhal, Managing Director, Global Head of Energy Transition for 20 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: RBC Capital Markets, and Bianca Zicarelli, Managing Director of CPPIB. Together, 21 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: the panelists discuss key topics, including how they deal with 22 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: market volatility, the energy sectors they are keeping an eye on, 23 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 1: and the strategic approaches that banks and VC firms take 24 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 1: when it comes to investing in new technologies. BNF summits 25 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: bring together experts from across finance, energy and technology to 26 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: share insights, build connections, and explore how innovations in clean 27 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: energy technologies are reshaping global markets. Held in cities around 28 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: the world, they offer the ideas and perspective needed to 29 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: navigate the transition to a cliar in a future. If 30 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: you'd like to join us at an upcoming event, including 31 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: the BNF Summitt Shanghai on November twenty fifth and twenty sixth, 32 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: head to BNF dot com and click on Events, where 33 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,119 Speaker 1: you can also watch highlights and videos from past summits. 34 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: And now to Jonathan's panel from the BNF Summit London, 35 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: titled Weighing the Investment opportunity conventional versus clean energy. 36 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 2: So much is changing in the world. At the same time, 37 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 2: clean energy stocks has outperformed SMP five hundred since Liberation 38 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 2: Day This year. Private market seems to be very interested 39 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 2: in the energy transition space, with Brookfield just closing a 40 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 2: second transition fund that's north of twenty billion dollars, and 41 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 2: a number of European owners have recently pulled their mandates 42 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 2: from US managers precisely on ESG concerns, suggesting that they 43 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 2: still care very much about the sacronym. I'm not usually 44 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 2: a glass half fall guy, so I'm happy to see 45 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 2: myself having this personal growth. But jokes aside, We've also 46 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 2: obviously have had more conversations about energy security, energy reliability, 47 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 2: and if not directly about building more fossil fuel energy. 48 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: Ralph Banks have been at the center of this pendulum. 49 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 2: S when over the past couple of years, Really, how 50 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 2: has that changed your approach to this energy space in 51 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: general and has this swing meant anything to you? 52 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: Yeah? 53 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 4: I think, I mean, look, I think a lot has 54 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 4: changed in twelve months. I think there's been some consistency. 55 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: China continues to dominate the space renewable to the lowest 56 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 4: cost of production, and so that's a constant. But I 57 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 4: think there's been a significant change over twelve months I 58 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 4: think from US in terms of engagement with clients, in 59 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 4: dialogue with stakeholders. Nothing's really changed fundamentally, but we are 60 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 4: picking our spots where we see opportunity. I would just 61 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 4: point out a couple of other sort of changes that 62 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 4: come with that that I think we're observing and that 63 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 4: impacting the environment. 64 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 3: One is just politics generally. 65 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 4: I think, particularly if you look at Europe and you 66 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 4: look at opposition parties, you hear a lot of the 67 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 4: same themes. So it doesn't just stop at big beautiful bill. 68 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 3: Tariffs really important also for this space. 69 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 4: Canada in particular, big impact there both politically, but then 70 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 4: also in terms of major projects that are being delivered 71 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 4: and developed, both conventional and clean energy. 72 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:48,679 Speaker 3: So the Trump. 73 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 4: Effect definitely had a bigger impact. 74 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 3: More broadly, I. 75 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 4: Think, you know, data centers obviously is a theme that 76 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 4: has been talked about a lot. I think when we 77 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 4: look at particularly listed stock books, what we can see 78 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 4: is the people, the indices or companies that have outperformed 79 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 4: are actually companies in clean energy that are related to 80 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 4: that theme. Nuclear geothermal energy storage very much outperformed the 81 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 4: rest of the market over the last sort. 82 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 3: Of twelve months. And then the third part that. 83 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 4: We see and Cabex came up in the last talk, 84 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 4: investment is up. And when you look at the plans 85 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 4: for European utilities, just to pick something, when you look 86 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 4: at the last three year plan versus they go forward 87 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 4: three year plan, it's up depending on the company, somewhere 88 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 4: in the fourty to eighty five percent, So significantly more 89 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 4: investment actually despite the sort of volatile. 90 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 3: Sort of geopolitical environment. 91 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 4: And I think with that comes investment, need, need for 92 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 4: capital and different sources of capital that needs to be mobilized. 93 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 4: And so what do I observe And I look back, 94 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 4: I say, nothing's really changed in terms of the momentum 95 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 4: is still there, but we are seeing different factors play 96 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 4: out and therefore we're picking up spots much more carefully 97 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 4: about where we see that opportunity emerging based on the 98 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 4: policy inputs that we are we are getting. 99 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 2: How are you dealing with the policy volatility like it 100 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 2: seems like everything's changing on a week by week basis. 101 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I keep rewriting our strategy every three months, so 102 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 4: that I think most people here will you know, in 103 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 4: my mind, you know, policy sets the framework and then 104 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: everything will follow from that. And you know, every time 105 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 4: policy changes, we have to readjust and we have to 106 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 4: think does the business case still make sense? If it does, 107 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 4: or does do I need to change my approach and 108 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 4: I think we have to adjust. And volatility is not 109 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 4: an investments professional's best friend, as everybody will attest to. 110 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 5: So that's awesome. 111 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 2: Banka, coming to you again, this shift between fossil fee 112 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 2: and queen energy, at least in the narrative side of things. 113 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 2: How has that changed your approach if anything? And also 114 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 2: I want to specifically ask you about interest rate obviously 115 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 2: in another big change happening over the past couple of years. 116 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 2: How has that changed the math of finance energy? 117 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely so. 118 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,839 Speaker 7: CPPIB has always been an investor across the entire energy 119 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 7: value chain. So we've always invested in clean technologies, renewables 120 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 7: all the way to gas fire generation and including upstream 121 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 7: and midstream oil and glass primarily in the US, So 122 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 7: we see the entire energy value chain. We've always done that, 123 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 7: so that hasn't changed more recently. Having said that, we 124 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 7: have seen a shift in the market dynamics with more 125 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 7: emphasis on energy security, reliability, and hopefully, and I'll take 126 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 7: your glass full approach, hopefully a pickup and power demand 127 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 7: across Europe fingers crossed driven by data centers and electrification 128 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 7: across Europe. And on that basis, we actually see a 129 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 7: lot of opportunities both on the conventional energy side, so gas, 130 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 7: fire generation, but also renewables. As Ralph said, renewables continue 131 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 7: to be the cleanest, sorry the cheapest source of new 132 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 7: energy generation, but economies for renewables economics are much more 133 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 7: complex today than there were a few years ago. So yes, 134 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 7: interest rates have stabilized, which provides a lot more visibility 135 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 7: into the economics of this projects. But on the other 136 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 7: side we have the kind of like the effects of 137 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 7: price cannibalization, curtailment, kind of like negative energy pricings which 138 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 7: do impact the economics of yes of these assets as 139 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 7: well as I think a bit of like a lack 140 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 7: of understanding from all of us on what is actually 141 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 7: the full burden costs of renewables when you take grid 142 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 7: stability and grid investments into account. So all in I 143 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 7: think we still see we're polish both on renewables. 144 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,119 Speaker 6: As well as conventional generations. 145 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 7: We think both technologies are very important to the system, 146 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 7: and we continue to look at both. 147 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 2: Thank you, or you need to help me a little bit. 148 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 2: We're trying to pick one out of the tube. But 149 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 2: both of them have said it's both. You said up 150 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 2: the Environmental Strategies group back in twenty nineteen and went 151 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 2: to the moon. I thought, I think that's a technical term. 152 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 3: Right. How has that? 153 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: How has this ride been for you? And do you 154 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 2: feel like right now the moment is different than twenty nineteen. 155 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm actually twenty years old, but I may look 156 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 8: forward you because I've been invested in key energy since nineteen. No, No, 157 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 8: it's been It's been a bit of a ride for sure. 158 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 8: Twenty nineteen twenty. A lot of pivots, a lot of 159 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:41,839 Speaker 8: liquidity in clean energy and the technologies combined with sort 160 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 8: of a fairly liquidity fueled market, perfect and cheap credit, 161 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 8: perfect environment for very capital intensive. 162 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 5: Clean energy solutions. 163 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 8: And you know, if I got a dollar from every 164 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 8: investor in twenty twenty that said, oh my god, I've 165 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 8: missed this greatest theme of our lifetime. I just cannot 166 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 8: believe it. When should I go back in? You know, 167 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 8: it's you know, we typically don't build a fund for timing. 168 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 8: We build it for sort of long duration. The narratives 169 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 8: certainly have changed so much. I've stopped calling myself a 170 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 8: cleenergy specialist because as soon as I introduced myself as one, 171 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 8: the phone all of a sudden goes click. So I'm 172 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 8: now an a AI enabling power provider and the lines 173 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 8: ringing off the hook. No joking aside, The narrative is 174 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 8: the same, and that is that exactly as Bianca said, 175 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 8: you know, powder Man is going up. It's quite a 176 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 8: very simple chart, and I love simplicity. If you look 177 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 8: at powder Man from two thousand and five to two 178 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 8: thousand and twenty two, it's flat, which defies conventional wisdom 179 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 8: that GP and that power typically sort of correlated with 180 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 8: GDP growth. But of course we had energy efficiency, we 181 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 8: had smart gro and everything else, so we could sort 182 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 8: of offset some of that additional GDP growing Powderman, you know, 183 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 8: with with efficiencies, and those efficiencies are now getting smaller 184 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 8: and smaller and smaller. You know, so big gains the beginning, 185 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 8: you know, smaller gains and now those gains are just marginal. 186 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 5: And what does that mean? 187 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 8: It means that now reality is really picking up, and 188 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 8: that is that powdermand is really starting to catch up 189 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 8: with broad GDP growth. So if we just kill AI 190 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 8: for one second. Now there's a lot of people that'll 191 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 8: be sad if we did that, But let's just say 192 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 8: we kill it for a second. Just electrification and Powderman 193 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 8: in Europe and the US, some excluding China for this, 194 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 8: you know, would have done unbelievable in terms of their 195 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 8: cleargy strategy and their power power management of power. We're 196 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 8: seeing powdermant going up to the tune of seventy eighty 197 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 8: percent over the next twenty years. That's that's that's pretty remarkable. 198 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 8: Now if you add AI to that, and I know 199 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 8: that you know, as typically we tend to have systematic 200 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 8: underestimation of you know, how fast things grow, well, it 201 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 8: almost becomes a bit silly. We're talking more than one 202 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 8: hundred percent. Let's haircut all of the AI projections in 203 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 8: terms of giga watches served by fifty percent, and it's 204 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 8: still a dunculous, insane amount of power we need between 205 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 8: today and twenty twenty five. The only difference is, you know, 206 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 8: which I keep saying, is you're paying six and a 207 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 8: half times price sales for MSCI aquate technology, and you're 208 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 8: paying one times price to sales for clean energy, or 209 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 8: let's call it AI powered innovative solutions meaning solar, when, 210 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 8: battery storage, smart grids, et cetera. So the thesis is 211 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 8: exactly the same with any technology. Anyone here will probably 212 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 8: know the Gardner hype cycle. You have a hype then 213 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 8: all of a sudden something burst. There's some exarconius event 214 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,359 Speaker 8: that happens. It was rates and inflation with clean energy. 215 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 8: Can't think of any theme that haven't had that. Think tech, 216 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 8: think in China, think autos, think US railways, you know, 217 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 8: whichever it might be. And I would say about six 218 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 8: months ago we were at sort of a dissolution sort 219 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 8: of stage. Oh my god, this thing is never gonna work. 220 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 8: K is just dead, you know, I just don't see 221 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 8: it happening, despite solar and wind adding record capacity in 222 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 8: the US. So there is this sentiment change where end 223 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 8: up be where where? Basically I think we have one 224 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 8: of the largest blind spots ever, which is AI. You know, 225 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 8: it's becoming such a big part of global in disease. 226 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 8: You know, we can't attend any conference, any meeting, any 227 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 8: phone call, any conversation without touching upon AI. Yet very 228 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 8: few people are really focused on what enables AI, because 229 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,679 Speaker 8: there is no AI without power. And then you can 230 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 8: rank those in terms of time to market and then 231 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 8: you get your answer. 232 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 2: The same logic applies to fossil fuel, and the reason 233 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 2: why we're still talking about gas and maybe the conventional 234 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 2: argument is time to market market argument. Gas turbines take time, 235 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: nuclear takes time, and a couple of other technologies you 236 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 2: can you can list this out, but that hasn't stopped 237 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 2: from gas makers raising their valuation in the market and 238 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 2: having some of these names being at their record highs. 239 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 2: As a as a porfolio manager, how are you comparing 240 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 2: these sort of fossil fuel names, even if they can't 241 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 2: deliver their market prices are going very much up versus 242 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 2: clean energy companies. 243 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 5: Well, it's not. 244 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 8: You know, I spent two thirds of my career investing 245 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 8: in coal and oil and gas, and you know, the 246 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 8: oil and above, and since sixteen sort of thought that 247 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 8: there was a really interesting pivot around environmental solutions four 248 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 8: years ago. Yeah, yeah, sorry for you, Yeah, the longer. 249 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 8: So there's definitely an oil and above, and I think 250 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 8: that just shows how urgent the demand power is. It's 251 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 8: not just that solar is the only solution, or gas 252 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 8: is the only solution, or nuclear is the only solution. 253 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 8: It's just you take the power you can get. And 254 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 8: then there's a difference between baseload traditional baseload power, which 255 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 8: consists of gas and nuclear. It's just time to market, 256 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 8: you know, is a bit of an issue there. If 257 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 8: you want power today, and some of the things you 258 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 8: can deploy fairly quickly. If you have an interconnection, whole 259 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 8: different issue. So lots of ifs and buds before the 260 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 8: anchor kills me, you know, because that is a big issue. 261 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 8: You basically have solar plus storage, some more sol on 262 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 8: our ad storage onto the equation. You know, you've got 263 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 8: some fuel cells, you've got some wind, you got you know, 264 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 8: geothermal which is really starting to become quite interesting and 265 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 8: moving down the cost curve, although still expensive. 266 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 5: So you know, we're not dogmatic about it. 267 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 8: We just wanted to create a vehicle where people could 268 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 8: and exposure in an institutional manner, diversified amount of these 269 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 8: environmental solutions across the spectrum. And yeah, we're not specifically 270 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 8: not invested in what we call transition because I feel 271 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 8: everything's a transition, you know. Coals are transition. Coals transitioning, 272 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 8: you know. So I just really hate the word transition 273 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 8: of what it's become. But we've decided to focus in 274 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 8: on the sort of more innovative side of the. 275 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 5: Palette of power innovation. 276 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 2: We've gone through this question with throwing a lot of 277 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 2: technology names out there right nuclear, geothermal, wind solars plus storage. 278 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 2: I want us to go more specific into which technology 279 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 2: and why you're finding opportunities. 280 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 3: Can I just ask. 281 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 2: All of you to name one specific technology on the 282 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: low carbon side you find you're finding opportunities right now, 283 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: which in the world and why? And also one technology 284 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 2: on the fossil fuel side for the same aspects. Bianca 285 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 2: canestra with you. 286 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, so I'm going to piggyback on Org's point here 287 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 7: on geothermal. I am a firm believer in geothermal. 288 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:16,679 Speaker 6: I agree with you. 289 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 7: I think the economics are not necessarily there yet, but 290 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 7: I do think is going to pick up. We're seeing 291 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 7: a lot of activity in the US. We're investing in 292 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 7: the inferval in the US. We're seeing some activities in 293 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 7: Europe as well. A bit different market dynamics and concerns 294 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 7: but Germany is a market that I personally see a 295 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 7: lot of potential earlier days in the US, but a 296 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 7: technology that I think is worth watching out for in 297 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 7: the future. So that's on the clean energy side of 298 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 7: things and another more conventional side of things. Obviously, I 299 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 7: think we're looking at a lot of gas fire generation, 300 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,360 Speaker 7: and we continue to see quite a lot of opportunities. 301 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 7: I think gas is here to stay for longer. We're 302 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 7: seeing this as a key uh well, I won't say 303 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 7: transition technology, but a clear stability and security of supply technology. 304 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 7: So we're firm believers that gas will be in the 305 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 7: system for longer across all geographies. 306 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 2: Are there any specific across all geographies, any specific region 307 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 2: that you see policy enabling geothermal or gas making a 308 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:23,640 Speaker 2: sort of faster headway. 309 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, So I think geothermal is probably going to pick 310 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 7: up in the US first before it does in Europe. 311 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 7: I think Europe has different concerns about technology and fracking 312 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 7: and all of that, so I'm probably I think we're 313 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 7: probably going to see the development in the US ahead 314 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 7: of Europe, and that's already happening. 315 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 3: Uh. 316 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 7: For gas, again, I think we're seeing many opportunities in 317 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 7: North America, but also in Europe. I think we're seeing 318 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 7: opportunities in the UK, in Ireland, Germany is talking about 319 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 7: deploying a lot of capital into building news new gas 320 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 7: fire generations. So I think we're seeing a lot of 321 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 7: activity and interest pick up. Obviously, where you get to 322 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 7: and how do you compensate the type of assets with capacity, 323 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 7: payments and things like that is a key key topics. 324 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 7: I think some markets are more developed than others, but overall, 325 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 7: I think is a theme to watch for across all 326 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 7: European geographies. 327 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 4: So I guess I can take you gas, so I'll 328 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 4: have to transition to something else. 329 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 3: We see. 330 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 4: I mean there's a lot of areas that get a 331 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 4: lot of focus, and whether that's energy service companies, where 332 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 4: the software companies that are enabling transition, clean data analytics. 333 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 4: Lots of people talk to us about that fleet decarbonization. 334 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 3: But if I had to pick two, let's talk about nuclear. 335 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 4: It's not a now thing, it's a longer term one, 336 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 4: right Let's I mean the first SMR will hopefully be 337 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 4: delivered at Darlington, Ontario. 338 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 3: Watch this space. There's you know a lot of new 339 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 3: nuclear discussion in. 340 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 4: Across Europe, A UK Sweden, Eastern Europe y energy security, 341 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 4: and I think baseload requirement. Right, we exiting coal, we're 342 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 4: exiting gas at some areas, so we have to have. 343 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 3: Some kind of you know, based load requirement. 344 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 4: So I think to me, if I take a slightly 345 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 4: longer perspective, twenty thirty onwards, nuclear will be a theme, 346 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 4: and we'll see it in many markets actually US and 347 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 4: Europe in particular on the conventional side. If I speak 348 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 4: to my North American colleagues, it'll be LERG export to 349 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 4: Europe and midstream infrastructure. 350 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 3: We see a lot of gas. 351 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 4: I see the demand in Germany write forty gigawads of 352 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 4: gas capacity needed because you haven't got nuclear and you 353 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 4: haven't got coal, so you need gas. And with that 354 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 4: you need a molecule to come in. And somebody called 355 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 4: it a freedom molecule. I'm not sure about that, but 356 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 4: LERG is definitely a topic of discussion for US. 357 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 5: It's really ungrateful. 358 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 8: Sorry, after you know Bianca and Ralph and because those 359 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 8: are great, great examples, I would say energy storage. I 360 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 8: know that always comes up and people like, oh, that 361 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 8: was really boring, because you could have chosen something a 362 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 8: bit sexier. But you know, energy storage is really interesting 363 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 8: because it you know, the numbers in terms of growth 364 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 8: or energy storage is just mind boggling and of course 365 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 8: makes sense and addresses the intermiscency of renewables. Right now, 366 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 8: most of the energy storage we that we have is 367 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 8: up to sort of four hours. What's really interesting are 368 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 8: companies that are trying to extend those to maybe eight hours, 369 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 8: maybe twelve hours, which is really technically extremely challenging, and 370 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 8: doing so with other materials and lithium for example, on 371 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 8: the on the sink side. 372 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 5: So but energy storage for sure. 373 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 8: But I would say, and it's interesting you say region, 374 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 8: I think energy storage is really hard for European or 375 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 8: US companies to build storage, although that supply chain is 376 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 8: building out for sure, where China really has a massive 377 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 8: cost and in many ways technical advantage over a lot 378 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 8: of the European and US counterparts. So I would say 379 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 8: energy storage that of course means it's not a good investment, 380 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,479 Speaker 8: because just because it's a great technology doesn't mean it's 381 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 8: a great investment. And there are different parts of the 382 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 8: value chain there that are more interesting than others. And 383 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 8: then rather than maybe going into fossil fuels, can I 384 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 8: off pieced a little bit on the sort of maybe 385 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 8: going to the extractives. 386 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 5: Things, which would be lithium. 387 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 8: So we've built up positions across the lithium supply chain 388 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 8: over the past six months, you know, as a result 389 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 8: of and in a way of playing the energy storage 390 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 8: angle that still needs a lot of lithium. And we're 391 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 8: seeing eb sales continuing both in Europe but also in 392 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 8: in Asia. So I know it's a little bit conchariant, 393 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 8: but maybe that's why it's fun. Because lithium, I think 394 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 8: general wisdom would say it's still a fairly oversupplied market, etc. 395 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 8: But there's a lot of companies that are operating outside 396 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 8: of the cost curve. Chinese anti involution as well could 397 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 8: address that. 398 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 2: So yeah, lithium, I want to pick up on that 399 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,360 Speaker 2: energy storage point you mentioned, not the whole valual change, 400 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 2: some parts of it. Can you tell us which parts 401 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 2: of it? 402 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 8: Yes, I need to be careful because I think ninety 403 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 8: percent of my investing companies are sitting here. But no, 404 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 8: you know, and Banker I'm sure would agree with me 405 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 8: here that you know, running energy storage infrastructure is really interesting. 406 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 8: You can get some really interesting returns out of that 407 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 8: and trying to find find ways in publicly listed infrastructure 408 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 8: which is trading at you know, an incredible discount to 409 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 8: private infrastructure, where we see just you know, a real 410 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 8: divergence in invaluations in the public market visa v private markets. 411 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 8: I think it's quite interesting the picks and shovels of 412 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 8: anty storage hence the lithium side, and then investing in companies, 413 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 8: particularly in China that are developing energy storage technology I 414 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 8: overall solutions to that. 415 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 5: It's really fears competition. 416 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 8: You know, and you'll have developers that want storage and 417 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 8: they frankly most of the time don't really care where 418 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 8: it's coming from. As long as it takes down cost 419 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 8: and increases returns overall, and there's somewhat of a reliability, 420 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 8: they're actually you know happy. 421 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 5: I don't know if that's what your experience as well, 422 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:57,640 Speaker 5: but certainly that's. 423 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 2: I want to come back to the private and public 424 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 2: market discussion later on if you have time, but before then, 425 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 2: I find it weird that you are all sort of 426 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,959 Speaker 2: big names institutional investors talking about new technology as if 427 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 2: they're very comfortable all the time with these new adventures. 428 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 2: These technology we're talking about, they're very new, unproven not 429 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 2: reasonable or sustainable business models. So far, how have you 430 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,679 Speaker 2: guys been getting comfortable with this? Can I start with 431 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 2: you as an institutional investor? What does it take to 432 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 2: get comfortable with something like geothermal? 433 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 6: Yeah? 434 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 7: Absolutely, So for us, there's a bit of a difference 435 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 7: on scale of investments. So for newer technologies, we may 436 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 7: make a small investment just to get exposure to a 437 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 7: sector that we find very interesting and exciting, such as geothermal, 438 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 7: and then we can be closer to see how it unfolds. 439 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 7: But for us to make an investment at scale and 440 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 7: really take a view on a technology, we need to 441 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,879 Speaker 7: see a proof of concept operational track record. 442 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,479 Speaker 6: So for some of the technologies. 443 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 7: That we've been discussing SMR, long duration energy storage, GEOTHERMO, 444 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,360 Speaker 7: some of those we have taken very very small positions 445 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 7: to see how the technology is going to unfold, but 446 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 7: we are still waiting for a proof of concept, for 447 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 7: operational track records to invest in scale. 448 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 6: So that's how we think about it. 449 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 2: How long do you expect what take for something like 450 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:25,640 Speaker 2: you've already acted on for like. 451 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 7: Gios, it really depends on how long it takes. There's 452 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 7: the policy element, the project element, so normally will take 453 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 7: a few years. So if I were to think about GEOTHERMO, 454 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 7: I probably think is going to be in the twenty 455 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 7: thirties SMRs ten years. So I think it will depend 456 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 7: on the technology. But you do need to see start 457 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 7: small with a small project and then starting building from that, 458 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 7: and when you get to that scale of project, that's 459 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 7: when we would start the point capital more broadly. 460 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 2: On the lending side of a bank, know that you 461 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 2: were a different hat slightly on the lending side of 462 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 2: the bank. How would a bank get comfortable with the 463 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 2: new technology and how has your team been approaching. 464 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's I mean it's the same as 465 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 4: on the equity side. In truth, I think you start small, 466 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 4: you get used to the ecosystem the sector side, you 467 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 4: spend some time with companies, you make small lending to 468 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 4: start with a candidly, more conservative parameters, and then as 469 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,719 Speaker 4: technology builds out and you get more comfortable with it 470 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 4: and you feel like you have a good handle on 471 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 4: then you can scale it. And it's the same on 472 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 4: the equity side as on the dead side. I think 473 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 4: in terms of when we discuss it with our you know, 474 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 4: when we're on the advisory side, we speak to lots 475 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 4: of different kinds of capital providers, whether that's infrastructure or 476 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 4: public equity investors or private equity or growth equity. This 477 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,719 Speaker 4: is about finding the right capital for the stage at 478 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 4: which the company or technology is at. And there is 479 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 4: you know, VC is obviously able to take a lot 480 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 4: more risk in technology then you know growth equity can. 481 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 3: And and in. 482 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 4: Truth that you know that that risk appetite is changing 483 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 4: all the time, and we've seen a bit of a 484 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,439 Speaker 4: pullback in risk appetite and I think you have to 485 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 4: be very alive to that. And and but what is 486 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 4: the fundamental. The fundamental is if you have a first 487 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 4: mover with the technological advantage and the ability to scale, 488 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,439 Speaker 4: that is doing does well. What doesn't do well is 489 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,679 Speaker 4: if you're company number five, somewhere behind, no advantage and 490 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,480 Speaker 4: you're late, and you know, the question is always well, 491 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 4: who is then the winner? But actually in this space, 492 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 4: what we've actually seen is is, you know, the first 493 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 4: few companies do very well and are able to raise 494 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 4: capital get good valuations, and others are they are finding 495 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 4: harder to do. So there's been a bit of a 496 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 4: shrinkage towards the sort of. 497 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 3: Front runners. 498 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 2: If if I can just pick pick up this private 499 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 2: versus public market kind of question. We've obviously seen a 500 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 2: lot of more discussions on private equity, private debt. How 501 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 2: have you seen this space changing changed over the past 502 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 2: year or two. 503 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think I mentioned a number of different 504 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,240 Speaker 4: capital providers, but the reality is there's others. There's government 505 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 4: backed entities which have stepped in in certain areas where 506 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 4: you know, the private capital just can be there, there's 507 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 4: some risk private capitalists won't take. And you've also seen 508 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 4: credit funds and more structured capital to be more precise 509 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 4: on the risk allocation between capital provider and company. And 510 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 4: so that's been sort of I would say over the 511 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 4: last eighteen months, certainly a theme and part of our 512 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 4: job is to find the right capital for you know, 513 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 4: what is needed. Capital is there, to be clear, but 514 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 4: as you move on up on the risk spectrum or 515 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 4: on the technology risk, that capital gets smaller and you 516 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 4: have to be more structured and more innovative of doing it. 517 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 3: I mean, if you know, if. 518 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 4: You look at where's capital gone, and I think BNF 519 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,400 Speaker 4: does a great job at sort of you know the 520 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 4: two point one trillion globally or you know, it's grids, 521 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 4: it's renewables, it's evs. Those are your top three. That's 522 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 4: the vast majority of the capital. The other parts are 523 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 4: still small. Storage will become a much bigger is become 524 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 4: a much bigger because it's cost competitive, it's low, so 525 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 4: I think and as things scale up, you will just 526 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 4: find mainstream capital just gravitate and the pool opens up 527 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 4: as a result. 528 00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 2: Or you you also wear a hat on the BNP 529 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:35,360 Speaker 2: private impact and MISS side of things. Can you tell 530 00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 2: us a little bit about the private the private impact 531 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 2: and MIST kind of angle and how does that compare 532 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,160 Speaker 2: to what Bianca and Ralph have mentioned. 533 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 8: Yeah, No, absolutely, I mean and that means just really 534 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 8: just a focus on some of the solutions that we 535 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 8: need to drive decarbonization as an example. 536 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 5: But yes, we see. 537 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:01,240 Speaker 8: This what a bit of interest in sort of the 538 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 8: early stage when enough sort of the VC community. 539 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 5: Is actually pretty active. 540 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 8: Uh and uh, there's a lot of interest there and 541 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 8: a lot of investors that have that are focused. And 542 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 8: then as these companies kind of scale up. And I'm 543 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 8: gonna end up quoting someone that I can't remember who 544 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 8: made up the term, but I'll copy it. Which is 545 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 8: the missing middle, you know, which is when some of 546 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 8: these companies that need to really scale up to say, okay, 547 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 8: we now have the technology, we have proof concept, you know, 548 00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 8: we we build our demonstration plan, it looks really interesting. 549 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 8: We believe that we can scale it to this level 550 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 8: at a you know, cost of why level. Then and 551 00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 8: that's when it gets really interesting. All of a sudden, 552 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 8: there's a little bit of a gap and where there's 553 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 8: a real seeming lack of capital and I think that's 554 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 8: a real opportunity actually, And there's a number of players 555 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 8: that are that are in that space, you know, but. 556 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 5: The the vast majority aren't. 557 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 8: And part of the reason for that is that you've 558 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 8: got private funds that are raised so much money that 559 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 8: you know, sitting spending you know, six months on due diligence, 560 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 8: and something where you can make a ten million dollar 561 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:14,200 Speaker 8: investment just doesn't really seem like a great you know 562 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 8: use of time. If you have you know, ten billion, 563 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 8: you need to invest and then you'll go for the 564 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 8: bigger projects. And hence, you know, the bigger projects typically 565 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 8: have much high evaluations because there are these months amongst 566 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 8: the pools of capital that are choosing to follow sort 567 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 8: of the same private assets and Hence we've seen your 568 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 8: evaluations on the private sign and some of the large 569 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 8: odeals in the private space being quite high and sort 570 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,880 Speaker 8: of dislocate from the public space. What's really cool is 571 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,920 Speaker 8: to see the private capital moving into the public space 572 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,800 Speaker 8: to take those private you know, you know, affording to 573 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 8: pay fifty six percent premiums and then still have a return. 574 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 8: So it tells you a little bit about, certainly on 575 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 8: the listed infrastructure side, how attract if some of those 576 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 8: investments are. But yeah, when I sat up with my 577 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 8: private hat on, my public hat on, you know, that's 578 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 8: really interesting and really helps to inform also maybe what's 579 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 8: around the corner. 580 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:20,680 Speaker 2: We've been talking about this energy space as if raising 581 00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 2: powdermand from AI and others will lift all boats right 582 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 2: to the degree that we don't necessarily need policy intervention anymore. 583 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 2: What does policy do in this environment? And how can 584 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 2: that help all of you to bring more capital if 585 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 2: there's not enough even though we said that there's good 586 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 2: enough capital. Yeah, I start from you. 587 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think policy is still key. 588 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 7: I think you had mentioned earlier that we have a 589 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 7: massive grid bottleneck in Europe. 590 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 6: It's a massive problem not just. 591 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 7: For generation but also for AI, for data centers to 592 00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 7: connect to the grid. So policy and help streamline access 593 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 7: to grid unlock kind of like grid delays and grid 594 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 7: cueues as we're seeing in the UK for example. So 595 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:15,919 Speaker 7: that's one similarly permitting process. I'm not saying anything new 596 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 7: takes years across every European market, so you could also 597 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:24,360 Speaker 7: help use policy to unlock that. I also talked earlier 598 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:28,120 Speaker 7: about flexible generation and the role of gas in the system. 599 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 7: I think policy play is a role in that, and 600 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:36,839 Speaker 7: how you compensate those assets to capacity payments and ancillary services. 601 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 7: And I think last but not least, we've been talking 602 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 7: quite a bit about batteries. There is a role for 603 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 7: batteries to play with renewables. So thinking about a hybridized project, 604 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,359 Speaker 7: I think there is still some thinking to go. How 605 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 7: do you actually compensate a project that is not just 606 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,800 Speaker 7: a PPA for the renewables and a separate revenue stream 607 00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,840 Speaker 7: for the bass. I think regulation can also help with that, 608 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:05,760 Speaker 7: help facilitate the deployment of bettery storage, but also rethink 609 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 7: the compensation framework for hybridized projects. 610 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:10,320 Speaker 3: Mix this up a little. 611 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 8: Bit work, Yeah, I was just thinking on the anti 612 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:16,719 Speaker 8: storage side. Maybe just to add to that, that I 613 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 8: think there's a lot of people that have this misconception 614 00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,279 Speaker 8: that anergy storage is just about storing energy, which is 615 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 8: not unusual given the name. But one of the things 616 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 8: that are really interesting about it, particularly in European markets, 617 00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 8: is the volatility of power prices and power markets getting 618 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 8: more integrated, and in fact, a lot of the profitability 619 00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 8: within angy storage lies in the sort of merchant area 620 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 8: where you know you're facing spot prices and you can 621 00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 8: actually start trading power that goes from certain points in 622 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,520 Speaker 8: the day negative. You know how many days if we 623 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,880 Speaker 8: had negative power prices in the UK, I think it's 624 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,240 Speaker 8: seventy one something like that, you know, to then power 625 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 8: prices going up by you know, tens of euros. You know, 626 00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 8: these are spreads that anyone would love in any market 627 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,400 Speaker 8: speak and and and those are the kind of spreads 628 00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 8: that these energy storage guys are facing. But you know, 629 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,320 Speaker 8: in terms of of if the question is more so, 630 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,840 Speaker 8: how do we how do we solve for this power deficit? 631 00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:11,399 Speaker 5: If you will? 632 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:15,319 Speaker 8: You know, policy is one thing I think, but I 633 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 8: do think at times that people tend to overestimate, particularly 634 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,560 Speaker 8: now it's these technologies mature the role that politics have 635 00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:27,879 Speaker 8: and of course policy have somewhat like if you're getting 636 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 8: a tax credit or not. 637 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:29,280 Speaker 5: A tax credit. 638 00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,160 Speaker 8: But you know, you're stepping back a little bit and 639 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,600 Speaker 8: you look at certainly when it comes to the US. 640 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,959 Speaker 8: You know, K ANDNG never had a better time under 641 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,320 Speaker 8: the current presidence first term. You know, K and G 642 00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,960 Speaker 8: never had a worse time during the term of the Democrats. 643 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:45,879 Speaker 8: And K and G has never had a better time 644 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:51,080 Speaker 8: than during since January. It's kind of, you know, not 645 00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,760 Speaker 8: what you would necessarily expect. You know, So this idea 646 00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 8: that KNG has to be incredibly politicized, Now that's great 647 00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,640 Speaker 8: because what it means is that it's just economics. It 648 00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:05,560 Speaker 8: really just is about economics. And I think the best 649 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,359 Speaker 8: thing that happened is that we are now reducing the 650 00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,759 Speaker 8: tax credits for the next couple of years to get 651 00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 8: a much healthy industry. I think it's the best thing 652 00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,360 Speaker 8: that happened for renewables looking energy. 653 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,600 Speaker 2: Well, any final thought. 654 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,160 Speaker 4: Well, I started a discussion with saying policy is really important, 655 00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 4: so I can't really backtrack. 656 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 3: I think you've got to have stability. 657 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:29,319 Speaker 4: But you're also right, which is economics dry like when 658 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:32,480 Speaker 4: you speak post a big beautiful bill and the change. 659 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 4: Everybody's like, I don't want to be exposed to subsidies. 660 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,719 Speaker 4: I don't want to be exposed to changing regulatory regimes. 661 00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,080 Speaker 4: I want some base level of uncertainty and then I 662 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,359 Speaker 4: want the economics to work, and that's where I'm going 663 00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:42,959 Speaker 4: to put my money. 664 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:44,320 Speaker 3: So I think you need both. 665 00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:44,840 Speaker 6: Yeah. 666 00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,279 Speaker 2: I think we started this panel having a struggle in 667 00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,640 Speaker 2: deciding between renewal energy and fossil fuel. I think in 668 00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 2: the end everybody is picking has picked one side. I 669 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,920 Speaker 2: think it's a very clear win for renewal of energy. 670 00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 2: Somehow we got here. It's a good message. 671 00:37:58,000 --> 00:37:58,799 Speaker 3: I'll end on that. 672 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,520 Speaker 2: Thank you everybody, and thank you for the palace. 673 00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:02,240 Speaker 3: Welcome. 674 00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,879 Speaker 2: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray 675 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,799 Speaker 2: with production assistance from Kamala Shelling. Bloomberg NEIF is a 676 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,839 Speaker 2: service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. 677 00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,600 Speaker 1: This recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed 678 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,399 Speaker 1: as investment in vice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as 679 00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,279 Speaker 1: to an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg ANIF should not 680 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,399 Speaker 1: be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an 681 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:39,120 Speaker 1: investment decision. 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