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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game ju us proud red.

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Speaker 2: Enough there running again, so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 3: your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them. Shut up,

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Speaker 3: I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 1: It's left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drilled bibus.

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Speaker 3: How old Earth.

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Speaker 2: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Helloi one, We are back.

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Speaker 2: It's wonderful soccer betting podcast from the Action Network, presented

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Speaker 2: by BET three six five. My name is Michael Lee Buff,

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Speaker 2: joining me first season three of our intrepid podcast, my

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Speaker 2: friends and co hosts Anthony Dubundo, Coming from Us, coming

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Speaker 2: to us from King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, Cunningham Dubuque Iowa.

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Speaker 2: I'm Michael Ebuff from Long Island, New York. And before

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Speaker 2: I bring in these two gentlemen, just a reminder that

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Speaker 2: wonder Goal is probably presented by BET three six five,

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Speaker 2: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code

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Speaker 2: Action to get Bet three six five's exclusive sign up offer.

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Speaker 2: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred dollars

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Speaker 2: in bonus bets. You must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 2: While the offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 2: and Iowa in the United States. If you have a

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Speaker 2: gambling problem, please call or text one eight hundred gambler. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 2: this is our Premier League Preview episode, one of our

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Speaker 2: favorite times of year. Our hearts aren't broken. We don't

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Speaker 2: know which teams we will love. We don't know which

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Speaker 2: teams we will hate. That's not true, we know what

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Speaker 2: teams we will love. But it's a new slate, a

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Speaker 2: new board. Let's look at the new board. Why don't

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Speaker 2: you know Man City is an odds on favorite to

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Speaker 2: win the league. They are minus one thirty eight at

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Speaker 2: Bet three six five. Than it's Arsenal five to one,

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Speaker 2: Liverpool eight to one, United eleven to one, Chelsea twelve

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Speaker 2: to one, Newcastle fourteen to one, Tottenham forty to one,

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Speaker 2: Brighton Hove Albion fifty to one. Everybody else triple digits

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Speaker 2: are longer, Anthony, you and I are kind of on

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Speaker 2: the same page here with how we'd play this. I

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Speaker 2: do have a bet that I wouldn't make. It's more

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Speaker 2: of a for fun long shot. But what are you

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Speaker 2: seeing here in the title race? Any betting value on

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Speaker 2: the board at the moment?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, you know, we tend to overreact to what

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Speaker 3: we just saw and that has massive implications on the

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Speaker 3: betting market. So let's go back to just last season.

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Speaker 3: Coming into the year we did this podcast, Tottenham was

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Speaker 3: the third favorite to win the Premier League. Chelsea was

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Speaker 3: the fourth favorite, and the whole idea was, you know,

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Speaker 3: nobody wants Arsenal, nobody wants United. And the season played

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Speaker 3: out and pretty much the complete opposite. Tottenham and Chelsea

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Speaker 3: were an embarrassment for large parts of the season. Arsenal

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Speaker 3: had their big surge before they blew the title, and

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Speaker 3: United took a good step forward under ten Hog in

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Speaker 3: the first year. And now the market is completely flipped.

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Speaker 3: Nobody wants Tottenham, nobody wants Chelsea. Everybody can't wait to

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Speaker 3: line up to bet Arsenal. They know BJ got some

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Speaker 3: eight to one. They're now down to five to one

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Speaker 3: in the market. I can't get there on five to one.

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Speaker 3: Gabrielle Jaesus goes down with an injury now, so he's

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Speaker 3: going to miss the first month of season. Arsenal is

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Speaker 3: a really great I think they've had a great summer.

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Speaker 3: I think the three biggest concerns with Arsenal were, you know,

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Speaker 3: striker which now is a concern again, central midfield depth

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Speaker 3: and age which they got Declan Rice, and defensive back depth.

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Speaker 3: Center back depth and they got Jerry and Timber. So

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of reasons to be excited if you're

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Speaker 3: an Arsenal fan, and I get why bj is so

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Speaker 3: excited to bet the Gunners, but I just don't really

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Speaker 3: think the numbers there. I mean, do they really win

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Speaker 3: the league here more than twenty percent of the time

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Speaker 3: fifteen sixteen seventeen Phent the time? I don't think so,

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Speaker 3: not against City. The thing about City is, on one hand,

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Speaker 3: there is the whole regression exhaustion angle where they don't

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Speaker 3: have as much depth and they just had the ultimate

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Speaker 3: peak in soccer with the treble and now they might

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Speaker 3: struggle and the motivation could drop. But it's also the

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Speaker 3: first time they've had a real offseason since before COVID,

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Speaker 3: and you know, City for the first time comes into

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Speaker 3: a season with a pretty settled squad where there aren't

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Speaker 3: pieces coming and going in a lot of news, you

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Speaker 3: know they're going to get guardiol In and whatnot, and

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Speaker 3: you know probably one or two more players before the

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Speaker 3: end of it all. There's really no holes in the

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Speaker 3: City team either must walk or leaves. So I really

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Speaker 3: think that I'm hoping Cities starts slow again. I don't

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Speaker 3: think they're going to because the schedule is very friendly

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Speaker 3: to begin, and hope to get in on City at

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Speaker 3: a better price. But ultimately I think there's just too

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Speaker 3: many question marks about Liverpool. Who is the only team

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Speaker 3: that I think has that ceiling still to match City

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Speaker 3: if City's had its best. I think Arsenal can match

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Speaker 3: City if City's a little worse. If City does really

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Speaker 3: come down, I think Arsenal's floor is very high now.

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Speaker 3: But I think Liverpool, with their attacking firepower, is the

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Speaker 3: only team with the ceiling to go toe to toe

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Speaker 3: with City, and given their defensive issues that I don't

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Speaker 3: really know that they've fixed, I'm still kind of holding here.

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Speaker 2: I want to build up that because I actually think

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Speaker 2: you should expect City to come back down a little bit.

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Speaker 2: And it's not just about the motivation, because I mean

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Speaker 2: we see like Byron has won ten Bundesligas in a row,

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Speaker 2: Like teams are going to be motivated to win the

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Speaker 2: title no matter what happened the season before. I don't

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Speaker 2: I don't really buy too much into that. But what

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Speaker 2: I do think is the league is better. Like we're

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Speaker 2: now talking the Big Six isn't a thing anymore. It's

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Speaker 2: now there's now eight really really really good teams in

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Speaker 2: the Premier League, Like eight of the best teams in

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Speaker 2: Europe are in the Premier League. When we now add

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Speaker 2: Newcastle and Brighton to the Big Six, so right away,

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Speaker 2: that just makes the chasing pack deeper, and it means

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Speaker 2: that these teams are all going to kind of beat

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Speaker 2: up on each other. So I think that the point

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Speaker 2: total that you need to win the league is going

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Speaker 2: to come down. I think it's going to turn into

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Speaker 2: more of a Kentucky Derby style title race, where it's

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Speaker 2: you know, the field is much wider than a normal

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Speaker 2: horse race and it's just going to be a war

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Speaker 2: of attrition. And that's why I actually don't hate a

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Speaker 2: bet on Spurs at all. They're forty four to one,

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Speaker 2: it's hot. That's the highest number I've seen out there.

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Speaker 2: I actually think they have a high ceiling because I

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Speaker 2: really like Anchipusa Coglo. I'll figure out how to pronounce

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Speaker 2: his Greek name at some point throughout this podcast, but

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Speaker 2: he's the type of guy that seems to just invigorate

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Speaker 2: a squad when he comes in. This is a team

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Speaker 2: that's needed, that that's been crying out for that for

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Speaker 2: a long time. You know that they have the attacking

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Speaker 2: firepower to score, they get the fallbacks that they needed,

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Speaker 2: The midfield's good. I mean, I don't think that this

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Speaker 2: is too different from you know what we saw at

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Speaker 2: Arsenal last year, which is, you know, team from this

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Speaker 2: range that just needs things to break right for it

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Speaker 2: to put some pressure on City. That's the only only

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Speaker 2: title bet that I would go close to, because, like

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Speaker 2: you said, the number is just not even close on

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Speaker 2: Arsenal or Liverpool or United, like Chelsea Chelsea. I think

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Speaker 2: like if Chelsea was thirty to one, then we could

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Speaker 2: have an interesting conversation. But I agree, they're not like this.

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Speaker 2: These numbers are outrageous and the league is so top

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Speaker 2: heavy that you understand why. I mean, Brighton fifty to

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Speaker 2: one is insane. That's insane, Like we love Brighton, but

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Speaker 2: they shouldn't be fifty to one to win the league.

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Speaker 3: I think there's like a twenty to one out there,

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Speaker 3: which is bright and winner without Man City, which I

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Speaker 3: am tempted by. I actually think you're kind of right

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Speaker 3: about the whole point about it kind of being a

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Speaker 3: very wide field, because the top eight has gotten so

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Speaker 3: strong relative to your up relative to each other, and

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Speaker 3: I really think there's not a team in the top

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Speaker 3: eight where I feel like they had a bad summer

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Speaker 3: or like where I feel like they're moving in the

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Speaker 3: wrong direction, not one team except maybe City, but City

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Speaker 3: starts from such a high perch to the point where

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Speaker 3: I kind of think that like two to seven or

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Speaker 3: eight might be really really tight, and so they could

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Speaker 3: getdragged into it for sure, but.

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Speaker 2: Especially if they starts up, which as we.

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Speaker 3: Get more into the bets on like what else we're

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Speaker 3: betting top four, top six and stuff, you'll kind of

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Speaker 3: see a theme where I think that like two to

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Speaker 3: four are getting a lot of market respect, and I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure there's a huge gap between you know, a

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Speaker 3: Liverpool United and a Newcastle versus like a Tottenham and

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Speaker 3: a Chelsea or Bright Brighton trying to make that move

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Speaker 3: up the table or stay up there from last season.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I tend to think that this is gonna

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Speaker 3: be an extremely fun season for the top. And then

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Speaker 3: we have BJ and I were talking two blobs. We

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Speaker 3: have the top blob and then we have the bottom blob.

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Speaker 3: Whereas last year it felt even the year before, like

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Speaker 3: four tiers, maybe this year it really feels like there's

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Speaker 3: like two tiers and then everybody in the middle, like

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Speaker 3: two teams in the middle.

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Speaker 2: And at BJ will bring you in one second, because

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Speaker 2: we know where this conversation goes once once we do

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Speaker 2: bring you in. But the one other thing I want

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Speaker 2: to point out is like this in a league like

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Speaker 2: the Premier League, where's it's just, you know, an absolute

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Speaker 2: soap opera. Last year, when we did our season preview,

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Speaker 2: if I told you that not only was Graham Potter

189
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Speaker 2: gonna leave Brighton, mattaged Chelsea and then be fired from

190
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Speaker 2: Chelsea just just to be replaced by Frank Lampard who

191
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Speaker 2: was just previously fired by Everden, Like you guys would

192
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Speaker 2: have called me crazy. But the point is that there's

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Speaker 2: no reason to bet these shorter numbers in my mind,

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Speaker 2: at least when you're walking into a league that stuff

195
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Speaker 2: like that. Roy Hodgson is the is managing Crystal Palace, right, Like,

196
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Speaker 2: weird things are going to happen between this moment and

197
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Speaker 2: when we got when we wrap up the season in May,

198
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Speaker 2: who knows who's going to still be, you know, standing,

199
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Speaker 2: And I just think in that case, like it just

200
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,320
Speaker 2: makes a lot more sense when when it is going

201
00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,440
Speaker 2: to be a wide field, these horses are all going

202
00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,840
Speaker 2: to be bumping into each other all season long. They're

203
00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,400
Speaker 2: going to be beating one another all season long. That's going

204
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Speaker 2: to bring down the ceiling that you need to win

205
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Speaker 2: the league, and it should keep. I think all eight

206
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Speaker 2: of these teams, you know, maybe one or two has

207
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,920
Speaker 2: a Chelsea type season from last year that things just

208
00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,640
Speaker 2: don't click at all. But six of the eight, let's say,

209
00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:51,520
Speaker 2: are going they're just going to be in it. So

210
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Speaker 2: why not take the longest number. I think got a

211
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Speaker 2: team with a high ceiling with a new manager who

212
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Speaker 2: I think really can just to stoke a fire under

213
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Speaker 2: a team. I think that's maybe his best asset. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be playing Spurs. I think that this team, especially,

215
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Speaker 2: I think they'll hold on to Kane and even if

216
00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,640
Speaker 2: they don't, we Childison's better than him anyways, So like

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Speaker 2: I'm not too too fussed. So yeah, I'm continuing to

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Speaker 2: talk myself into Tottenham Hotspur as a little sprinkle at

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Speaker 2: forty four to one, just just to give me one

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Speaker 2: team going into the season. All right, BJ, welcome back.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael. I mean I'm ready for this Premier League season.

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Speaker 1: I mean I am. I'm so excited about my Gunners

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Speaker 1: because I for the first time as a fan, I

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Speaker 1: truly feel confident in their abilities to challenge for the title.

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Speaker 1: Now you just mentioned the rest of the teams that

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Speaker 1: are kind of vying for the title right now. Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, in my mind, you know, Tottenham and Chelsea

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Speaker 1: are going through transitional periods with different managers, different philosophies,

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Speaker 1: and it's gonna take some time for those two men.

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Speaker 1: So I obviously don't have Euro up to deal with,

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Speaker 1: so you know, you have that aspect of putting everything

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Speaker 1: into the Premier League. But again, a team like Chelsea's,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the roster overhaul here with Chelsea is just

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Speaker 1: so massive and you're changing systems. It's we'll get to

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Speaker 1: them in a little bit, you know. Same thing with Toddham,

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Speaker 1: who I agree with you guys is a team that

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Speaker 1: I'm looking boying a system in my Premier League. But

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Speaker 1: for Arsenal, it really comes down to them what they

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Speaker 1: did in the transfer market to make sure that they

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Speaker 1: got to the level of what Manchester City is. So

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Speaker 1: if we go back to last season, what happened Arsenal

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Speaker 1: that caused them to essentially derail their title hopes, Well,

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Speaker 1: it was injuries. You know, for the last eleven matches

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Speaker 1: they could have defed, it couldn't defend right exactly. William

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Speaker 1: Saliba got hurt and it just totally messed up everything

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Speaker 1: Arsenal was doing. Over those last last eleven matches, Arsenal

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Speaker 1: conceded one point four to five expected goals for ninety minutes.

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Speaker 1: That's really really bad. That's like close to Liverpool numbers.

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Speaker 1: But with Saliba the first twenty seven matches, the only

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Speaker 1: conceded points nine to seven and expect the goals per

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Speaker 1: ninety minutes.

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Speaker 2: So those are Yurimena type splits exactly.

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Speaker 1: Those definitely are Michael. So that's what we have here

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Speaker 1: now with Arsenal is that you know, Saliba is obviously healthy,

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Speaker 1: but what did Arsenal Helse was working against. Arsenal is

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Speaker 1: their most versatile defender. Tomy Asu was also hurt for

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Speaker 1: the rest of the season, so they had to play

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Speaker 1: Rob Holding, who's not great in Bible to play and

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Speaker 1: overall just not really that great at a defender, and

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Speaker 1: it totally derailed everything Arsenal was trying to do. So

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Speaker 1: what does McKellar try to do. He goes out and

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Speaker 1: gets urin Timber, who is another very versatile center back

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Speaker 1: who can play right center back, right back, even in

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Speaker 1: the midfield, and gives Arsenal a ton ton of depth

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Speaker 1: along that back line, and he can also invert into

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Speaker 1: the middle of the pitch. So now you have him

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Speaker 1: and Zimchenko like good luck trying to plan for what

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Speaker 1: Arsenal is going to do and what McKellar is going

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Speaker 1: to do. And Declan Rice is obviously just the perfect signing,

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Speaker 1: best defensive midfielder in the entire world right now at

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Speaker 1: twenty four just reaching his peak. Led the Premier League

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Speaker 1: with sixty three interceptions last season. Is an unbelievable transition defender.

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Speaker 1: Oh And also had two hundred and forty progressive passes

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Speaker 1: that was eighth in the Premier League playing for a

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Speaker 1: West Ham team that held the third post possession in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League. Now you have him who signed Kai

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Speaker 1: have Vertz to basically replace Granted Shaka, and now you're

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Speaker 1: gonna play him alongside Odegard in a four to three

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Speaker 1: three and yaverts is somebody that I'm very, very interested

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Speaker 1: in this season. He obviously went through a poor finishing

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Speaker 1: run with Chelsea last year, but he's not a true

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Speaker 1: number nine. If you remember when he came over from

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Speaker 1: bayer Leverkusen, he was playing more as a right wing

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Speaker 1: or a number ten role and he was flourishing in

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Speaker 1: that and then Chelsea, because of their terrible business, did

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Speaker 1: not have basically never actually tried to sign a number nine,

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Speaker 1: so he had to play there and he went through

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Speaker 1: a bad finishing run and everybody says he stinks. I

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Speaker 1: don't see that. You also have two of the best

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Speaker 1: wingers in the Premier League in Socca and Martinelli, and

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Speaker 1: you just have depth everywhere with the trust Stard. Even

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Speaker 1: Reese Nelson had a great season last season. He'll be

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Speaker 1: a good backup to Kaya, Osaka and Nikata. Anthony is

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Speaker 1: just as good as gabriellejesus I don't think there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be this massive drop off just to he's hurt for

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Speaker 1: a few games that I really don't see it. Nikata

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Speaker 1: played very very well fill and roll for the Moat

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Speaker 1: for that middle period of last season when Gabrielle Jesus

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Speaker 1: was hurt. Her transfer market dot com guys Arsenal is

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Speaker 1: now the most valuable squad in the entire world at

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Speaker 1: one point two two billion, just barely surpassing City. Now.

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Speaker 1: I think once uh Goarvidal comes over, I think that

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Speaker 1: will City will eventually surpass Arsenal. But Arsenal what they've

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Speaker 1: done to give them selves tackle flexibility, to give them

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Speaker 1: depth because they're gonna be back in the Champions League,

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Speaker 1: has really elevated them, in my opinion, to the level

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Speaker 1: of Manchester City because of the business that they've done

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Speaker 1: this off season. So yes, I've grabbed Arsenal ry at

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Speaker 1: eight to one. Five to one, I agree is is

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Speaker 1: a little short, but I truly believe they're they're on

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Speaker 1: that level with City right now, so I wouldn't. I

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Speaker 1: still think that's probably the cutoff I would play them

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Speaker 1: out is five to one, but I truly still believe

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Speaker 1: that that that price is still a tad high given

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Speaker 1: what Arsenal has now in terms of talent on their

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Speaker 1: squad and with Deck and Rice just completely changing the

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Speaker 1: fold and allowing Arsenal to have ultimate game control similar

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Speaker 1: to what Pep has been doing with Manchester City. So

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Speaker 1: Arsenal five to one, I love them to win the

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Speaker 1: title outside of them, Like I agree with you guys.

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Speaker 1: You know, Tomham at forty four to one is is

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Speaker 1: somewhat interesting, and I do like the business that Tottenham

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Speaker 1: has done this offseason, but also transferring from a low block,

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Speaker 1: passive centric team into a team that's now going to

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Speaker 1: build out of the back, high pressing, high energy. That's

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Speaker 1: a massive change to make and I think you'll see

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Speaker 1: them get better as the season goes along. I think

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Speaker 1: forty four to one.

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Speaker 2: I think that's that's part of the reason I like it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know it's like a decent price, but like

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Speaker 1: you know, at the same time, it's like it's going

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Speaker 1: to take some time for him to implement a system.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, Arsenal is only the place I'm going. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I really truly likee the Gunners can can really contend

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Speaker 1: the season for a title.

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Speaker 2: The one other thing I want to add, there's we're

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Speaker 2: so conditioned to talking about this the I'll race being

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Speaker 2: a city versus team b M. It was it was

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Speaker 2: Liverpool for for quite a while. Now it's Arsenal right now,

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Speaker 2: but it's it's it's not right, this is this season.

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Speaker 2: I just don't view the season as a two teams

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Speaker 2: are going to break away from the pack. I find

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be impossible for especially with

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Speaker 2: the way I expect City to start, which is not

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Speaker 2: too well and and the way that you and you

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Speaker 2: mentioned Tottenham right like a new the new manager coming in,

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Speaker 2: it'll take some time to adjust. Maybe they don't start

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Speaker 2: rocking and rolling either, but by the time they're on song,

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Speaker 2: like if they can rattle off, you know, if they

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Speaker 2: can find their peak by boxing day like they can,

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Speaker 2: they should still be within a shouting distance of making

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Speaker 2: a run like we saw United kind of flirt with

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Speaker 2: being in the in the mix last season as well.

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Speaker 2: So I think that that recipe works. I just think

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Speaker 2: with the way that this is set up, with it

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Speaker 2: being yes, city of odds on deserving favorites everything like that.

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Speaker 2: Totally agree with that, But then the next seven teams

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Speaker 2: I shouldn't say that I should say, like the next

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Speaker 2: six teams, because Brighton I still think, like, like, we

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Speaker 2: love Brighton and they're really really good. But the next

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Speaker 2: six teams below City I think are on a lot

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Speaker 2: level playing field over a course of a thirty eight

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Speaker 2: match season. Then these odds show so Anthony Spurs that

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Speaker 2: he hates.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Liverpool at the price is there for them,

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Speaker 1: but they're gonna be I think they're the most fascinating

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Speaker 1: team coming into the season by far because of what

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Speaker 1: they've done. Chelsea, see, I don't see that. I actually

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Speaker 1: I think Chelsea's gonna be uh continuing to take So.

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Speaker 3: The thing about Chelsea is that they are replacing half

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Speaker 3: of their minutes right and half of their expecting goals output.

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Speaker 3: But they were bad, so like is that good? Is

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Speaker 3: good to get rid of the bad and then try

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Speaker 3: again with new players and like Chris and Kunku, Nico Jackson,

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Speaker 3: you could sell me on that being a good group

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Speaker 3: of attackers. Sterling, you know, bounced back season after he

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Speaker 3: was down last year, actually having a manager, you know,

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Speaker 3: having a team that ran the least in the prem

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Speaker 3: last year. Now they're gonna actually run like you could.

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Speaker 3: You could sell me on Chelsea. But the market seems

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Speaker 3: to be still in love with them. I mean, over

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Speaker 3: and over again. In the second half of last season,

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Speaker 3: we kept saying it. I said it a thousand times,

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Speaker 3: like I lost most of my bets. You know, they

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Speaker 3: can't stay this bad, and look at how much respect

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Speaker 3: they're getting in the market and we're we're you know,

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Speaker 3: we're beating the clothes every time and it's not doing

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Speaker 3: much for us because they're creating two XG and losing

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Speaker 3: two on. But the Blues, you know, the this is

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Speaker 3: a team that's still I know a lot of the

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Speaker 3: players have been cleared out. You know, they they've lost

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Speaker 3: a lot of their minutes. Like I said, cool Bali gone,

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Speaker 3: Mendy gone, pool a Sit gone Haver. It's gone. Like

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Speaker 3: there's been a lot of clearing out. But ultimately I

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Speaker 3: think it's almost good. And they don't have the europe

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Speaker 3: to deal with now, which should keep a pretty tight

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Speaker 3: and small squad that could maybe figure things out in

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Speaker 3: the Pochatino. But I just don't really know that they

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Speaker 3: have that level to get to that I think are

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Speaker 3: gonna need to be at, like the teams who can

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Speaker 3: get to a level of performance week in and week

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Speaker 3: out to actually win this league. I feel like it's

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Speaker 3: you know, it's a Liverpool for sure, Arsenal for sure.

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Speaker 3: I actually think Newcastle and Brighton have shown it more

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Speaker 3: than United has because United never really got there last year.

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Speaker 3: Brighton for all of it's you know, questions about who's

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Speaker 3: going to be playing for them come you know the

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Speaker 3: end of the month, like they played at the second

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Speaker 3: highest level in the league in the second half of

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Speaker 3: last season. Newcastle's been a steady burn and of improvement.

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Speaker 3: So it's very fascinating. Like I said, I have not

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Speaker 3: bet a title future. If I had to bet anybody

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Speaker 3: and you made me bet someone, probably I would probably

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Speaker 3: take Liverpool. That's your team, So make other're my reds.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go to top four. We can carry

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Speaker 2: this conversation into that market. Just reading off some of

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Speaker 2: the odds here. City is obviously prohibitive price at minus

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Speaker 2: two thousand, Arsenal minus two hundred, Liverpool minus won eighty eight,

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Speaker 2: United minus one thirty eight, Chelsea plus one twenty five,

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Speaker 2: Newcastle plus one fifty, Tottenham plus three thirty three, Brighton

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Speaker 2: plus five to fifty Villa eight to one. Then we

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Speaker 2: get into some some longer shots, with west Ham twenty

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Speaker 2: five to one, Brentford's forty to one, Palace Wolves Fulham

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Speaker 2: Everton fifty, Forest one hundred, Burnley one fifty to one,

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Speaker 2: Born With one fifty to one, Sheffield United two fifty

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Speaker 2: to one, and Luton Town the Hatters five hundred to one.

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Speaker 2: Before we dive into those to any bets we have here,

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Speaker 2: I should I should note that if you are listening

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Speaker 2: to Wonder Golf for the first time, welcome and throw

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Speaker 2: us a download, subscribe, review all that jazz, maybe right

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Speaker 2: now before we get into top four, where we'll let

432
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 2: Beja kick things off. And if this is your first

433
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 2: time listening to us, over the past two years, along

434
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 2: with a lot of people who who bet a ton

435
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 2: of soccer, we fell in love with Brighton. We thought

436
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: we were a little scared of the love we felt

437
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 2: for Brighton when Graham Potter left, and then we fell

438
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 2: even more in love with Brighton when Robert the Serby

439
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,919
Speaker 2: came along. And this is why I'm a little nervous

440
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 2: about buying Brighton. I don't know how long he's gonna last.

441
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: Because I'll help you find m hmm.

442
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 2: Let's let's say that you know, the Byron Saxon manager,

443
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 2: Juve sax alleg like the first the first name that's

444
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 2: gonna pop up for the first big club that sax

445
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: manager is going to be deserving. That's scary. But here's

446
00:22:58,160 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: the and I know and this is and this is

447
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 2: what we said about Potter. We said, they've got a

448
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 2: plant place and they do have a play at a place.

449
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 2: I'm sure they had a planned place. You you scary.

450
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: You talked me down last year, Michael, I said, oh,

451
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 1: this thing ever, and you said, don't worry. Brighton's the

452
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 1: smart club. They'll find the perfect manager.

453
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 2: And they did.

454
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 1: So sometimes you just kind of they got better, they

455
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: got bet better. Now he did get better, a lot better. Yeah,

456
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 1: so why don't you go at anything because I know

457
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 1: this is one of your futures.

458
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

459
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 3: Look, I'm betting Brighton top four plus five point fifty,

460
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 3: the level that they established in the second half of

461
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 3: last season. For me, there you expect natural regression from

462
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 3: that number. Like I don't think that they'll continue putting

463
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 3: up two point one expected goals per match, which by

464
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 3: the way, was tied with man City for the best

465
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 3: in the Premier League in the second half of the season.

466
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 3: They do lose their best player and Alexis McAllister and

467
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 3: there was incredible ball production numbers from him. But I

468
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 3: mean like they already have replacements and see, so they

469
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: just keep finding me South the Americans and Siso comes in.

470
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 3: He was getting four point three shots per ninety. Showed

471
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 3: some real, you know, quality finishing, some bangers from outside

472
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 3: the penalty area, but also just putting up some monster

473
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 3: shot production. Kiro Metoma one of the best dribblers and

474
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 3: ball progressors in the league. Evan Ferguson is the reason

475
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 3: to say that Brighton can outrun any possible progression because

476
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 3: he barely played. He only played ten nineties last year

477
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: and he had eight goals and two assists zero point

478
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 3: five to one x G per ninety at eighteen years old.

479
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 3: That's fourteenth best in x G per ninety amongst players

480
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 3: at least ten nineties. So and Siso, Ferguson, Metoma, and

481
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 3: they may keep Caseto. I mean, they haven't lost him yet,

482
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 3: and I think eventually he'll get sold just because there's

483
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 3: a lot of demand for his position and for his

484
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 3: role and his talent. But they're going to get a

485
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 3: lot of money. They can reinvest some of it and

486
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 3: save some of the rest for you know profits. So

487
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 3: I think that there's like the teams that have given

488
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 3: them trouble have been the teams be able to you know,

489
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 3: force high turnovers and then turn that into immediate goals

490
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: and attack.

491
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: And Sean Dyke is Everton.

492
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 3: Everton did it, Newcastle did it. Man United even effectively

493
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 3: did it in the one match that they played where

494
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 3: they really stifled them. They couldn't score off of it,

495
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 3: but they had a lot of chances. But these teams

496
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 3: that want to play low and like sit deep, that

497
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: used to be the Brighton Kryptonite. Remember they used to

498
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 3: create all these chances but couldn't finish. But this is

499
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 3: a different crop of players, it's a different manager. It's

500
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 3: a much more aggressive system from Deservee than Potter ever played.

501
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 3: And I think it makes them really good at beating

502
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 3: up on the shit teams, like better than the Tottenham's

503
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 3: going to be to begin the season, better than Chelsea,

504
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 3: maybe better than United. And like I said, I just

505
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: think that the market is downgrading them, just expecting this regression,

506
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 3: banking it back to their transfer value and saying well,

507
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 3: this is still bright and we need to regress it

508
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 3: back to what their priors are. And I agree with that,

509
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 3: but only to a certain extent, because I just think

510
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 3: it like a plus five fifty they're going to be

511
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 3: in the cement mixer with all those other teams and

512
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 3: with Ferguson maybe taking a leap into like Star at

513
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 3: nineteen years old. That's the that's the way where if

514
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: he bags twenty goals this year, which I think is

515
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 3: very possible, they're going to be in the top five.

516
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: I think pretty pretty solidly in that mix. So plus

517
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 3: five to fifty brighton top four and then I also

518
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 3: like Newcastle, but we'll let BJ talk a little bit

519
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: and then we can come back to them.

520
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, so Newcastle. You know, the best price

521
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: you can find them out them right now is one

522
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: plus one sixty to finish in the top four and

523
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 1: an exercise they like to do when I'm looking at

524
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: the futures market, it is number one. Obviously. Go back

525
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 1: and look at a lot of the underlying metrics from

526
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 1: the past season. You know what teams did well, like

527
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 1: new people how people realize this, but Newcastle finished with

528
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: the second best expected goal differential in the Premier League.

529
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 1: They were a plus point eighty five actually differential per

530
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: ninety minutes. That was better than Arsenal, better than Liverpool,

531
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 1: better than Manchester United. So now you have to look

532
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: and you say, okay, you know, Newcastle isn't one of

533
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: the Big six clubs, so it was similar to Brighton.

534
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: You're like, oh, they probably are gonna have some natural regression, right,

535
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 1: They're gonna play the champions for the first time. I

536
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: don't really see the natural regression coming from Newcastle because

537
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: as everybody else, you know, the Big Six obviously spent

538
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: money in the transfer market. Newcastle spent money and got better.

539
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 1: But I'm got Sandra Tanali, who's one of the best

540
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 1: young midfielders in the entire world. Press resistant, great, great

541
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 1: on the ball, good ball progression, can press with the

542
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 1: best of them, which is really what Newcastle did. They

543
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: showed it time and time again against the big boys

544
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,719
Speaker 1: that they can press them and they can beat them

545
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: up and throughout a full ninety minutes. They did it

546
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: to Arsenal, they did it to Brighton, they did it

547
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: to Manchester United. The only team they really kind of

548
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: struggled with was was City and you know it it

549
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 1: is where it is. But Newcastle does this thing that

550
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: makes them so so difficult to play against, where because

551
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 1: they can beat you up with their man pressing going

552
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: forward that they almost forced you to play the ball along. Well,

553
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:03,360
Speaker 1: if you're going to play the ball along, then that's

554
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 1: going to create a transitional type match. And there's no

555
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 1: better team playing in transition in the Premier League than

556
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 1: Newcastle was last season. And then you look at also

557
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: what they did is they went out and got Harvey Barnes,

558
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: who is I believe in upgrade to Alan Sat Maximum

559
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: who's obviously off to the Saudi League Alan Sat Maximan.

560
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 1: While he's a great dribbler and he's a great ball progress,

561
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 1: Harvey Barnes actually adds goal production for Newcastle if you

562
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: look at his numbers, he was one of the best

563
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: in terms of non penalty expected goals for wingers in

564
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: the Premier League last season for Leicester. So you had

565
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: him alongside Alexander E. Shack who like he's a top

566
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 1: five striker in the Premier League. Like he is so

567
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: so good. He's got every finish in his locker. He

568
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: can play well in the air, he can play well

569
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: on the ground. You know, it was clear, you know

570
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: Calum Wilson had a great season last season, like he

571
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: was a point eight to four x sheeper ninety minute

572
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: striker that was I believe second to Holland in terms

573
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: of x sheper ninety ye. But he also you know,

574
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: he's getting older and his minutes went down as when

575
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,719
Speaker 1: e Shock came in. So now you have two these

576
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: two fantastic strikers. You add Harvey Barnes, who is obviously

577
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: a very talented player out on the left wing. Like

578
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 1: the natural regression here from Newcastle, I don't really see it.

579
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 1: I think that they retool perfectly. They got better and

580
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: the market is telling you that, oh, well they're going

581
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 1: to regress. You know, Liverpool is better than them, United's

582
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 1: better than them, Arsenal is better than them. Well, you know,

583
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: Arsenal maybe better than them. I don't really see Newcastle

584
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: being like the fifth or sixth best team in the

585
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: Premier League. I think they're very much in the conversation

586
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: of being the third or fourth team. I think they're

587
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 1: better than United for sure. So at plus one sixty,

588
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: I love the price on them to finish inside you know,

589
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: the top four. I've also played in my minus one

590
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: twenty to finish higher than Chelsea because they basically have

591
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: the exact same point total as them, which I think

592
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: is absolutely an insane number. But they have the money,

593
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 1: so we're not done with the transfer window yet. We

594
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: could They could still bring in, you know, another high

595
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: price target before the season starts, So I think the

596
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: price on Newcastle is good enough at plus one sixty

597
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 1: to finish inside the top four. They're just as bit

598
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: as good as United in Liverpool.

599
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 2: They feel they feel safer, which sounds weird to say then, right,

600
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: but then United, Chelsea, Liverpool or Spurs in that market,

601
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 2: like you can kind of I feel like all of

602
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 2: the teams in this eight team cohort you can. I

603
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 2: feel like you can feel the most confident projecting Newcastle's

604
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 2: path in this season compared to basically anybody else. Now

605
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 2: that they're their kind of margins might be their ceilings,

606
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 2: of course, lower than Cities, and their floor might be

607
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: uh like lower as well, of course, but I feel

608
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: like the gap between the ceiling and floor is is

609
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 2: a lot narrower than than some of these other teams.

610
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: One thing I will say about that bet is they

611
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 2: have a really rough start to the season. Newcastle, I

612
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: think it's uh Villa, then Villa City, Liverpool Brighton out

613
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: of the gates, which is which.

614
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: I'll say this, Michael, because of their you know, Champions

615
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: League schedule in the middle of that's almost I think

616
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: a good thing for them to really put everything into

617
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 1: those first couple of matches against big competition and then

618
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: you know, obviously rotating. It's harder to rotate against teams

619
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: like Arsenal and City when you're middle playing Champions League.

620
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: Obviously it's their first time doing that, so it's going

621
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: to be new for them, and they need depth to

622
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 1: be able to get through this type of gauntlet and

623
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 1: playing that many matches. So that's the worry with them,

624
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: I think is just the sheer amount of matches and

625
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 1: the lack of depth comparatively that they have to a

626
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: team like a Liverpool, Arsenal and City.

627
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 2: So and they can always just buy all the players

628
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 2: and that's the point. Yeah, Arabia at some point, right,

629
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: you know, if they reded the title race, like, don't

630
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 2: be surprised if all of a sudden Christiano.

631
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, don't be surprised in January if they just

632
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 1: drop one hundred and twenty million on a bunch of

633
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: players like, that's also what you have in your comes

634
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: back over. Have you have money in your pocket? Are

635
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: we pretending for the title? All right, let's just go spend.

636
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and but but my point was that you you

637
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: might as well, you might be able just to wait

638
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: a little bit. On Newcastle, their numbers might tick down,

639
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 2: both in if you're looking at better future and to

640
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 2: win the title or top four.

641
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 3: With the way they start, I agree, I think there

642
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 3: are some areas where you can say, well, that's probably

643
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 3: not gonna happen again. So the thing is, the whole

644
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: defense was healthy all of last year. Nobody ever got hurt,

645
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: so they were able to start their best defenders every match.

646
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 3: But that could possibly be a red flag for them

647
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 3: if they're not able to do that again. I'm not

648
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,959
Speaker 3: as high on Tanali. I do like Barnes. I think

649
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 3: Barnes is a good replacement for Saint Maximin and you

650
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 3: know al Moron kind of you know, not really getting

651
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 3: those minutes. What I really like about Newcastle though, Wilson,

652
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 3: you know, when he's on the pitch, has always been great,

653
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 3: but he's always hurt. Essak is great cover for him,

654
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 3: but they can also play them together, which is what

655
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 3: I thought was the biggest difference last year because the

656
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 3: reason we love Esach so much is that not just

657
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 3: because he scores goals, but because he's so good in

658
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 3: a facilitator role with the ball at his feet, creating

659
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 3: for others that he can play off the left play

660
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 3: off Wilson, and the two of them together was really

661
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 3: wrecking teams, especially in transition last year. You talked about it.

662
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 3: The other thing for Newcastle, their numbers, you know, are

663
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 3: kind of and this is something the double pivot guys

664
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 3: talked about. It's they played it as like a team

665
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 3: who you know, got to take advantage of the fact

666
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 3: that there was always spacing behind. They got to always

667
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 3: be in those transitionary moments because teams didn't treat them

668
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: like a big side, we're gonna sit really deep. And

669
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 3: you did kind of see a struggle with that in

670
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 3: the middle part of the season when they were drawing

671
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 3: with lower table teams a lot, you know, right after

672
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 3: a World Cup break. But once they get ahead, man,

673
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 3: it's so tough to play them. They are so physical.

674
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 3: They're number one in high turn nervous forced last year,

675
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 3: number one in aerial dual percentage one by over two

676
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 3: and a half percent to the next best team. They

677
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 3: are mean, they are physical, they get in your face,

678
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 3: and they aren't afraid to press and bully you. So

679
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 3: it's a it's a tough matchup for anybody. And Tonali

680
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 3: is good depth I think, if anything like he I

681
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 3: don't know that he starts every week or is a

682
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 3: huge great player for them, but like, they're gonna need

683
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,479
Speaker 3: more bodies in here, so I want to see one

684
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 3: or two more moves, even though they're just like small

685
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: consolidation type moves. But yeah, I don't really see this

686
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 3: Newcastle step back. I think, if anything, it's kind of

687
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,280
Speaker 3: just a repeat.

688
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 1: Of last year.

689
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 3: But if they just do what they did last year,

690
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 3: that's going to put them right there with those other teams.

691
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, plus one sixty Newcastle, Top four. I like Newcastle,

692
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 3: I like Brighton. We're kind of buying high on Newcastle

693
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 3: a little bit. But again, like does market love for United.

694
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 3: United is a really tough team to kind of figure

695
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 3: out because it kind of depends on your opinion of

696
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 3: Rasmus Holand, but it's certainly interesting.

697
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: Let's talk top six now, BJ your only bet here

698
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 2: as a team. We've We've spent plenty of time talking about, so.

699
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll just lay it onnest. Yeah, I'll just quickly

700
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: add a few things. Brighton, you know, the best price

701
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 1: you can find is plus one seventy a finished inside

702
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 1: the top six. You know, again, if you're looking imperatively

703
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: throughout the rest of it, you know, Brighton finished with

704
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 1: the fourth best expected gold of frenchial in the Premier

705
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,839
Speaker 1: League last season and they were you know, miles better

706
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 1: under Deservey. So to get a price like that on

707
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 1: a team that was, you know, essentially the fourth best

708
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 1: team in the Premier League by underlying metrics and Anthonyathan

709
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: Nail on the head is like. The thing about it is, Michael,

710
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: is that you know, Brighton's obviously incredible with their recruitment

711
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 1: and there you know their transfer market activity and everything

712
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 1: what happened towards the end of last season. And this

713
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: is why I think maybe a loss of Caceto is

714
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: catastrophic for them. It's obviously a huge loss, there's no

715
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 1: doubt about that. But Billy Gilmore was so good in

716
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: the number six role for them that basically Deservey just

717
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 1: left him there. He was just like, I can't take

718
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,800
Speaker 1: him off the field. He's playing too well, So Casto

719
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 1: had to play right back because you know they maybe

720
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 1: want He wanted both of them on the pitch at

721
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: the same time. Now you know it, who knows if

722
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: Cayato stays like Brighton's you know, he signed a new

723
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: contract with them last year, so Brighton has no incentive

724
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: to move him, Like he's not like Cain, who's on

725
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 1: like you know, essentially going to be out of a

726
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: contract next year. They can wait and force one of

727
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 1: these teams to pay one hundred million dollars for them.

728
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: And I think Chelsea might end up doing it if

729
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: after a couple of bad responds to begin the season,

730
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 1: because that's how they operate.

731
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 3: Uh.

732
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 1: But I mean, I mean all the underlying metrics for

733
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,399
Speaker 1: Brighton told you that they were a top four team.

734
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 1: I mean they finished fourth and expected goals like Anthony

735
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: mentioned two point one expected goals for ninety under deserve

736
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 1: it like those are insane numbers. And you know, there

737
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 1: is a there is a possibility where teams kind of

738
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 1: just figure out Brighton, right, like they figure out like, hey,

739
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: they're trying to bait us into pressing and then but

740
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: we saw that last season where teams just sat off

741
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 1: them and Brighton for you know, for a couple of

742
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 1: matches there, you know, specifically one against the I remember

743
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: one against United where you know, they had a kind

744
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: of the tough time figuring that out. But as you

745
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 1: saw the season go along, I mean, they just were

746
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: obliterating low blocks again and again and again, and they had,

747
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 1: like Anthony mentioned, they have all the attacking talent to

748
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: be able to do it again this season. So I'm

749
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 1: really excited by Brighton again. I think as a price

750
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 1: of plus one seventy for what was the fourth best

751
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 1: team in the Premier League mininder line metrics is too

752
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 1: good of a price to pass up. So Brighton top

753
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 1: six and plus one seventy for.

754
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 3: Me, it should be said Brighton closed a favorite. And

755
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 3: the FA Cup semifinals is Man United on a neutral

756
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 3: field in April, in late April April twenty second. So

757
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 3: think about that in the context of now, where the

758
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 3: prices are on Men United in Brighton? Do you really like?

759
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 3: Of course, you hit the price and that United can

760
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 3: go spend more money than Brighton probably can in the

761
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 3: next month. But I kind of think United is done.

762
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 3: They got their business done early and look, they've done

763
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 3: some good stuff. We should probably mention United because we

764
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 3: haven't mentioned them in any bets whatsoever yet. I like

765
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: Mason Mount, I like Sophie and Amrobat, I'm a fan

766
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 3: of Holand in the long run, you know, Sancho bounced

767
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 3: back a year. Like, there's all kinds of reasons to

768
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 3: be bullish on United, but they are starting from such

769
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 3: a lower floor relative to last season that I just

770
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: really don't know how much better they are. And that's

771
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 3: the like, even if they're that much better, they weren't

772
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 3: truly a top four team last year by any metric

773
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 3: what you looked at. I mean, this is a team

774
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 3: that you know, got a career year from from Rashford

775
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 3: and still had the fourth longest average shot distance in

776
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 3: the league, still conceded the seventh most expected goals. It

777
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 3: was like an eighth best team by expected threat. They

778
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 3: didn't have a striker for most of the year, so

779
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 3: that definitely hurts their numbers. They're casamiro on off splits

780
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 3: were pretty big and he's north of thirty. So like

781
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 3: there's reasons to say, well, maybe United isn't as good

782
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 3: as we thought. And last year they certainly overperformed their

783
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 3: metrics Onnana wasn't a great shot stopper United last season,

784
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 3: teams were really bad at shooting against them. He won

785
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 3: the Golden Glove, and won the Golden Glove because they

786
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 3: either conceded zero or seven in like every game. But

787
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 3: like they just weren't that great defensively last year. And

788
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 3: I think that they would need to really get a

789
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 3: lot out of Holand to make that leap. And I

790
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 3: don't know that he's at that level yet, Like I

791
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 3: want to see something like he had a great year

792
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 3: at at Atlanta, but it's still only nine goals in

793
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 3: twenty matches. The sample is small, and projecting him into

794
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 3: the prem at this age huge move. It is a

795
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 3: big step for him.

796
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: I think the one way, like I would bet a

797
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 2: United title future if you want to, if you're a

798
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 2: United fan and you want to better title future at

799
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 2: bet three six five they have PFA Player of the Year,

800
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 2: just bet Casimiro because if if Casimiro is healthy the

801
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 2: whole season and is as good as he was for

802
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 2: them when he was healthy, like and they win the title.

803
00:39:58,000 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 2: Or I should say if United wins the title, it'll

804
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 2: probably correlate with Casimiro being very healthy, playing in an

805
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 2: game in and a game out, and and being really good.

806
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: He's he's that he was that important for them.

807
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 3: I would think, Yeah, I just don't have any bets

808
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 3: on them, Like I think that they're priced close to

809
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 3: their ceiling. Their their team, that is their ceiling. Can

810
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 3: they do better than third?

811
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 2: Really? Realistically, I have no interest in them in a

812
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 2: season long way, but I would bet I think that

813
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 2: they're uh going to be a good underdog against these

814
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 2: these other teams in this mix. That is how I

815
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 2: would play that I would like to take on with

816
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:38,919
Speaker 2: with teams like Palace and Brentford et cetera. Like that's

817
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 2: that's United to me.

818
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: And United out of possession versus United possession was a

819
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 3: big difference last year. The most interesting thing is is

820
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: Holland and then Onnana just like how much better are

821
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 3: they in build up because they have a goalieho can

822
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 3: use his feet. That will be interesting. But like I said,

823
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 3: uh Amrabat, I guess Amrabat, Casimiro Bruno, they.

824
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: Don't even need obviously love Amerbat for the the.

825
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 3: Mora, yeah, they don't even need. And Fiorentina even though

826
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:08,840
Speaker 3: in heartbreak what I guess the question is if United

827
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 3: hits their ceiling, their probably third. I would imagine next

828
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 3: year would be the year that you could actually make

829
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 3: a case for the title charge because Antony gets another year.

830
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 3: He Actually I think I was a little too harsh

831
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 3: on him last year point four to seven next G

832
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 3: plus XA first season at twenty two in the prem

833
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 3: like pretty good, a lot of bad shots, but also

834
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 3: did get better shots as the year went on, and

835
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 3: then Sancho. They get a lot of shots from midfield,

836
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 3: so they don't need like a shot monster. They just

837
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 3: need a guy who can get some shots in the

838
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,359
Speaker 3: good areas of the penalty area. They weren't getting anything

839
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:44,720
Speaker 3: last year from veghorstor Marcial and it's not Rashford's national

840
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 3: natural position. So yeah, I'm not really sure what to

841
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 3: make it United. I'm probably not fading them in a

842
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,879
Speaker 3: sense like I you know, like BJ does every week,

843
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 3: but I also just like don't want to lay juice

844
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 3: on them top four because I think that the gap

845
00:41:58,719 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 3: is so small.

846
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean along that point, I mean Rashford scored

847
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 1: seventeen goals last season, Marcialle Sancho, and Anthony combined for

848
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 1: just sixteen goals, so that I mean, this is something

849
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 1: we've been talking about quite a while. Is that in

850
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 1: something Anthony's brought up many times is that United was

851
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,439
Speaker 1: too rely ont on Marcus Rashford to be their entire

852
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:19,879
Speaker 1: offensive production. So they really need someone like Mason Mount

853
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 1: or even hoil In to be a goal scoring threat

854
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: and not just have everything rely on Rashford to be that. Now,

855
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 1: Anthony be around the point about Oana, it does make

856
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 1: it very very interesting for United with it actually having

857
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 1: to be able to build out of the back. The

858
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 1: question mark is do you really think United with their

859
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 1: current offensive pieces that they have, are they going to

860
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: be elite and build up play and start breaking down

861
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: little blocks the way that a team like Arsenal or

862
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:48,959
Speaker 1: a team like Liverpool or a team like City would

863
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 1: be able to. Probably not, So they would need to

864
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: be elite defensively to be able to make up for

865
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 1: that fact that they aren't elite at be able to

866
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: break down those little blocks like those other three teams are.

867
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure they're really there yet from what

868
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 1: we've seen last season. So I agree with Antony, like

869
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be I don't like United. I

870
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 1: still don't. But I'm not going to be just railing

871
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: on them week after week after week because I think

872
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: the moves they made this summer addressed all of the

873
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 1: problems that they had last season, Like right, like they

874
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 1: needed a goalkeeper that could play this so they could

875
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: actually build out of the back, similar to a ten

876
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: hog did it i AX for so many years, So

877
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: who better to get than your goalkeeper at i AX

878
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: then Ohnana and they obviously went out. Mason Mount is

879
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 1: a great signing, like it it gives them. It is

880
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 1: a great bilo on them. Yeah, and it gives you know,

881
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 1: allows them to play double number tens along on its side, Fernandz,

882
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: you know, Hiland's a great signing. Again, I agree that

883
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: these small sample size obviously a huge number of potential,

884
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: But if you're bringing in a twenty year old kid

885
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 1: like that to basically be your savior and be your

886
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: number one striker, like that's a little premature. So maybe

887
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 1: a few years down the road and it will be

888
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,800
Speaker 1: there on the level of the cities of the Arsenals

889
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 1: and Liverpools. But I agree with that, Anthony. I think

890
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:59,919
Speaker 1: their their peak is essentially top three and then also

891
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 1: playing the Champions Champions League.

892
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 2: Roun, I was gonna say, I bet you We're all

893
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: gonna be thinking about betting them to win the Champions League.

894
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:08,720
Speaker 2: All right, let's go from the top to the bottom.

895
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 2: We spent enough time talking about the good teams, so

896
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 2: let's do it. Do we do? We do? Do we do?

897
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: Like two minutes on the middle? Are we gonna let's

898
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 3: go right to the bottom.

899
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 2: First, there's one Matt, Yeah, I mean you can't bet.

900
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 2: You can't bet a team to finish ninth Anthony. Unfortunately,

901
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 2: this is an actionable podcast. Let's so let's talk about, uh,

902
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 2: the relegation market, an actual real market.

903
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:34,919
Speaker 3: Louton what a fun what a fun market?

904
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: This is is early, this thing is tight.

905
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 1: Lwton is crazy.

906
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 2: Is the runaway favorite at minus three hundred. Uh, then

907
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 2: Sheffield United welcome back minus one sixty three. Those are

908
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 2: the only two odds on teams. And then Bourn myth

909
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 2: plus two hundred, Burnley plus two seventy five, Forrest plus

910
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 2: two to fifty Everdon plus three hundred Wolves three to one,

911
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 2: as well Fallham plus three fifty, Palace plus six fifty,

912
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 2: Brentford eight to one, west Ham twelve to one Villa forty,

913
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 2: Brighton fifty everybody else triple digits, cities five hundred only

914
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 2: five hundred to one to be relegated. They should be

915
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 2: about what.

916
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 1: But Michael one point one point Michael, Yeah, what if

917
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: all the sanctions get right deducted?

918
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 2: H that's what you're betting on? Five points yeah, one

919
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 2: point two million to one. That's what I would make.

920
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 3: So if you bet auto, if you just bet relegation

921
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 3: and they automatically get relegated, because there's some dumb like.

922
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 1: This, should you should win that bat that you should win?

923
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 1: The market is ACU, I would be a cash might

924
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: have to ask the great people that you know bet

925
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: through sixty five.

926
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 3: If that is, what are the rules on like f

927
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 3: FP auto relegation?

928
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 1: Because I I may I may just throw a dollar

929
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 1: on that in it happens.

930
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: Let's uh, let's focus on these teams here though. I

931
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 2: want to start with the newcomers, specifically Lowton and Sheffield

932
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 2: United since since their odds on to go down, we

933
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 2: saw last year that the the newly promoted sides, I

934
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 2: mean God blessed them, they all stayed up. Ye, And

935
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 2: so like you're when you're betting this market, you have

936
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,800
Speaker 2: to know that there's always going to be attacks on

937
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 2: the newly promoted side. You're they're always the prices are

938
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 2: always going to be a little bit higher. I think

939
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 2: that the market is down on Lowton Town, as I've

940
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 2: seen on a on a team coming up from the

941
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 2: Championship in since I've been betting on soccer, I can't

942
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 2: honestly can't think of one and a lot, and I

943
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:42,320
Speaker 2: think a lot of that has to do with the

944
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 2: fact that it's always the same teams coming back and forth,

945
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 2: like Norwich City et cetera. So that's what to keep

946
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 2: in mind. But I kind of like it was it

947
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 2: is at the top, like this is another kind of

948
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 2: derby style race where there's so many teams that you

949
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 2: could see going down that I don't think it makes

950
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 2: any sense to lay this kind of price. Like this

951
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 2: is not like a CD situation where you can just

952
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: feel very good about betting Lowton because they're compared to

953
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 2: other teams in the Premier League shoe string budget, they

954
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 2: play in the backyard of you know, some gardens in

955
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 2: in in England and whatever. It's just not that straightforward

956
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 2: because of the environment that they're gonna be playing in

957
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 2: which is quite frankly that half the league could be

958
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 2: relegated half of it and and we would be like,

959
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 2: that makes a lot of sense. How did we not

960
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 2: see it coming that? You know Palace was gonna go down,

961
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,359
Speaker 2: Rory Hodgson his pack like you know like this, there

962
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 2: are there are so many paths for this to happen.

963
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 2: And of course we already know everdenn are going down,

964
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:46,959
Speaker 2: like we're gonna from from match date one.

965
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:49,399
Speaker 1: They're gonna win their first match.

966
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 2: I'm b J and I are on on same team

967
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 2: in a different way. I'm gonna so I'll flip it

968
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: to you. Antony's start, How are you gonna weave your

969
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 2: way in in this market?

970
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 3: Look, it's really hard because.

971
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 2: There have been worse to pick twenty nineteenth and eighteenth

972
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 2: then it would be to pick the first, second and third.

973
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 2: I get a trycast this year. I've got no idea.

974
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, like you mentioned about the tax, like the tax

975
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 3: is real and we had I mean, let's flash backwards

976
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 3: to last season. It was kind of similar from an

977
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 3: odds perspective. I mean, if Fulham didn't have the same

978
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 3: kind of market respect that Burnley is getting here, and

979
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 3: I think Burnley is almost getting a little too much

980
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 3: market respect as top promoted team at minus two point fifty,

981
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 3: which I think is crazy because Burnley and Sheffield had

982
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 3: very similar underlying numbers last year. How they got to

983
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 3: those numbers is very different. We can talk about that

984
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 3: more later, but Luton plus zero point three XT difference

985
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 3: per ninety in the Championship, it's better pretty comparable to

986
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 3: what Nottingham Forest did. In fact, very comparable. Now they

987
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 3: did not spend and go out and an entire team

988
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 3: worth of players, but I think that gives you a

989
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 3: decent baseline of like what this team might look like

990
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,320
Speaker 3: this year. Just like from an XT difference per ninety perspective,

991
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 3: there's gonna be some really ugly losses, but I'm certainly

992
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 3: not laying minus three ten in the market, minus three

993
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 3: hundred in a market where they are this big of

994
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 3: a there's this many teams in the mix, So I.

995
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:26,240
Speaker 2: Think I want to go up to take traditions, like traditionally,

996
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 2: like it would almost make sense if this was the

997
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: number in a more I want to say, traditional Premier

998
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 2: League season, but like kind of the ones we've seen

999
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 2: in the past six or seven years where you're like

1000
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 2: all right, we're picking from five potential teams that are

1001
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 2: going down. There's legitimately ten here. That's the reason we're

1002
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 2: saying that this looton numbers outrageous. I think I think

1003
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 2: that it's outrageous to be hanging a team at this

1004
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:51,919
Speaker 2: high number before ball has been kicked in a race

1005
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 2: with ten teams in it.

1006
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:57,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, And the reason that the Premier League race is

1007
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 3: so interesting is because that the teams, the early teams

1008
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 3: have not done shit to get better. And remember, you know,

1009
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 3: I think the last team that had this low of

1010
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 3: expectations coming into the season was probably Huddersfield Town and

1011
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 3: they had a negative goal difference in the championship. The

1012
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 3: X she wasn't all that much better. They snuck up

1013
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,479
Speaker 3: on like a miracle to get up and the first

1014
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 3: season in the prem they couldn't create anything, but their

1015
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 3: defense held on enough to the point where they had

1016
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,760
Speaker 3: a minus point four to five xtraly difference per ninety.

1017
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 3: They finished sixteenth. They stayed up by four points, and

1018
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:37,800
Speaker 3: then the next season it hit them and they finished

1019
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 3: with sixteen points and a minus point eighty five extually difference.

1020
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 3: So for like one season, I think Newton has a chance.

1021
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 3: Sheffield is one of the most interesting profiles I've ever seen.

1022
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 3: They had the tenth most possession in the league last year,

1023
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 3: yet had more attacking penalty area touches, entries, crosses and

1024
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 3: carries than like any team in the league besides maybe

1025
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: Burnley in a couple of other categories. So they never

1026
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 3: have the ball, but they're very good. They're the most

1027
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 3: efficient transition team. Shit ever, I don't think that's even

1028
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 3: I don't even know how it's possible. Like I had

1029
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,879
Speaker 3: to double check the numbers on Sheffield when I went

1030
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 3: looked into it, but how they got to where Burnley

1031
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 3: was was was pretty comparable.

1032
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 2: So you know.

1033
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 3: Sheffield then sells and die to Marseille, who was their

1034
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 3: leading goal scored twenty five goals and assists last year.

1035
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 3: They bring in a guy another Admitroi. Ray has a

1036
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,839
Speaker 3: first name, but his middle name is a domasall.

1037
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 1: Or for Sheriff FC. Sheriff striker.

1038
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 3: Yes, the legend who had twelve goals at in Sweden

1039
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,800
Speaker 3: last year in fourteen games, So that's moderately intriguing.

1040
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, then he got the psychopath Ally mcbernie.

1041
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's he's back in the prem so like, I'm

1042
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 3: not betting against either of these teams, just like the

1043
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 3: market's gone crazy on them. Now let's kind of go

1044
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,320
Speaker 3: up the table. Bourne myth. They're like one of the

1045
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:05,880
Speaker 3: few in this group that I think the arrow is

1046
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 3: pointed upward. Like we like the new manager, we like

1047
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,280
Speaker 3: the signings, we like the fact that they're investing. New owners,

1048
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 3: showed real life in the second half. I think they

1049
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:18,800
Speaker 3: have more attacking upside than most of the teams in

1050
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 3: this group. Forrest is like the biggest black box of

1051
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 3: all these teams for me, because I'm kind of confused

1052
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 3: on what to expect. But like I said, the reason

1053
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 3: that I'm intrigued is that I think Fulham, Wolves, Everton

1054
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 3: and Pallace have done nothing. And it's really concerning.

1055
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:36,240
Speaker 1: Use me and Juma.

1056
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:40,840
Speaker 2: What about Ashley Young? Dude? Has Ashley Young ever been relegated?

1057
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

1058
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 3: I don't think so.

1059
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, But that's what I'm saying. It's it sounds crazy

1060
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,760
Speaker 2: to say, but basically every team in this race outside

1061
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 2: of Luton, who should be the favorite, should just be

1062
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 2: minus one ten Like, it should just be minus one

1063
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 2: ten ten mins that I just don't see.

1064
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 3: I don't see each individual team is one tend to

1065
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:03,600
Speaker 3: be relegated.

1066
00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:09,760
Speaker 2: I just don't see. I don't see uh like a difference.

1067
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 2: If one thing goes wrong for Crystal Palace, they're doomed.

1068
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 2: If one thing goes wrong for Everden, they're doomed. If

1069
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:18,720
Speaker 2: you know, if you can say the same thing about Wolves,

1070
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 2: it's it's Fulham is a team that you know, BJ

1071
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 2: and I kind of had landed on here and I

1072
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,760
Speaker 2: like Fullham to finish last at twenty to one because

1073
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 2: it's not just one thing that could go wrong for

1074
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 2: this team. I could see a lot going wrong for them.

1075
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 2: Mitchrovich is already in Saudi Arabia. That's like he's out right,

1076
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:40,280
Speaker 2: like he's he said, even if that, if that transfer

1077
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 2: falls through, he still wants to leave Marco Silva. We've

1078
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 2: seen this act from him before, where he gets his

1079
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 2: head turned by a team. I mean it happened from

1080
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 2: Watford to Everden, right, Like, he doesn't really last long

1081
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:56,719
Speaker 2: at clubs. He's pretty easy to turn his head. They

1082
00:53:56,760 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 2: were terrible defensively last year. There's very little depth to

1083
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 2: the squad. I would say, like is it Paul, I

1084
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 2: don't know how long their midfielders is going to be

1085
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 2: out for to start the season. Yeah, and this team,

1086
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:12,399
Speaker 2: I think this team, that this team, the bottom could

1087
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:14,879
Speaker 2: just fall out of it. So that's why I think

1088
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:17,400
Speaker 2: that rather than just playing the plus three fifty, I

1089
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 2: would go for twenty to one to finish last because

1090
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:23,959
Speaker 2: if things go south, I could see Silva just abandoning ship.

1091
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:25,799
Speaker 2: Don't know where the goals are going to come from

1092
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:29,879
Speaker 2: if it's if not Mitrovic, the defense. If Mitrovic goes,

1093
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:31,800
Speaker 2: the defense has to improve to make up for that

1094
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 2: goal scoring. Walking out the door, I don't think it will.

1095
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:37,600
Speaker 3: Didn't they sign Raul Jimenez?

1096
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, you go.

1097
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 2: He he of a golden boot foot future twenty eight.

1098
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:50,320
Speaker 1: Walking through that, I mean I think you could. I

1099
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 1: mean you literally could make the argument that Alexander Mitrovich

1100
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: is the most important player in the Premier last season

1101
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 1: to his individual team on what outside of side of

1102
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 1: Jerry Mina true.

1103
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 3: We need to make you make a list of an

1104
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 3: official list at some point the season, like who are

1105
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:10,879
Speaker 3: the actual most important players in the league, because you've

1106
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 3: said it about like fifteen different.

1107
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 1: People, but like the list, like I went through it.

1108
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:19,920
Speaker 1: You know, obviously Mitrovich got he got hurt for a

1109
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 1: few matches, then he got spended for what was it

1110
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 1: eight or nine matches to towards the end of the season,

1111
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 1: we're pushing the ref. So he missed fourteen matches last season,

1112
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 1: but the matches that he did play in, he created

1113
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 1: fifteen of Fulham's thirty five expected goals. Like that is

1114
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 1: an insanely high number for just one player to be

1115
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 1: able to create because fulham style of play is absolutely

1116
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: centric around what Mitrovich does best, which he is one

1117
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:46,959
Speaker 1: of the best aerial ball winner strikers in the Premier League.

1118
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 1: And so you know, Fulham obviously completed the second most

1119
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,120
Speaker 1: crosses of anybody in the Premier League. So now you're

1120
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:53,880
Speaker 1: just gonna be sending in crosses to I mean, I

1121
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 1: don't know how old ral Menez is now. Carlos Fonisius

1122
00:55:57,040 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 1: has not been great in his limited sample size as well,

1123
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: So now you're either going to have to change your

1124
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 1: entire style of play or or signed Veaykhors or do something.

1125
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 1: And it just it's it's not gonna happen. I mean,

1126
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 1: they with Michovich wasn't on the pitch, they only averaged

1127
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 1: point eight eight expected goals per match like that would

1128
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: have been the worst mark in the Premier League by

1129
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 1: a mile last season. Well, actually pretty close to what

1130
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 1: Wolf is and we'll get to them in a second.

1131
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 1: But and then you coupled that with the fact that

1132
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:28,040
Speaker 1: what was the best part of Fulham's defense last season

1133
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,759
Speaker 1: that was honestly horrible. It was the fact that Tim

1134
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 1: Reim just had like this unbelievable season and was just

1135
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 1: holding them up like by by a thread for the

1136
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 1: majority of the season, and then he broke his arm

1137
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:40,800
Speaker 1: towards the end of the season. And obviously, you know,

1138
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 1: they had already been safe from relegation. So I mean Fullham,

1139
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:47,239
Speaker 1: you know, there's obviously different you know, expected goals miles

1140
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 1: they can use, but undersaid had them conceding seventy one

1141
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 1: expected goals last season. That was, like miles, the worst

1142
00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. So they went out and got

1143
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 1: Calvin Vassi from iaks, who I mean, he's good, he's

1144
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 1: a good ball progressor like, is he gonna be the

1145
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 1: savior to this defense?

1146
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 2: Like, no, he's not.

1147
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 1: So I agree with you, Michael. I think there's a

1148
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 1: real potential for some extreme bottoming out here from Fulham.

1149
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 1: There are so many things that can go wrong for

1150
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: this team. They're gonna lose it. They're opening their opening

1151
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 1: match too to evert and I hope you know that.

1152
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:18,440
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I'm ready for that one.

1153
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 1: Yeah. So like he was awesome, he was, yeah, but

1154
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 1: he can't be everything to them, Like how long? Yeah yeah,

1155
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 1: and he's out, so like.

1156
00:57:30,760 --> 00:57:33,920
Speaker 2: Like you're gonna play your first four or five matches.

1157
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 2: I think it's probably going to the international break without

1158
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 2: him and Mitrovich like yeah, it's it's.

1159
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 1: It's it's bad, it's not and it's not. It's not

1160
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 1: like Leno is gonna keep saving you know, at the

1161
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 1: rate that he was last season. I know he overperformed

1162
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 1: a great deal because Fulham obviously overperformed both offensively and defensively.

1163
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 1: But like, there there's some real warning sides with this team.

1164
00:57:57,160 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 1: They obviously resigned William which like he's thirty four now

1165
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 1: he's not gonna I don't think he's gonna have the

1166
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 1: same offensive production that he had last season.

1167
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 2: Like what went wrong for them last year?

1168
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,200
Speaker 1: I mean nothing really went wrong, Like everything went right

1169
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 1: for them. Finished tenth like they fished tenth. Yeah, and

1170
00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 1: then the fourth worst expected goal differential like that, Like

1171
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: that's it's crazy over performance to get away level of tenth,

1172
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: like it's crazy.

1173
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 3: It also gets worse red card luck. No team had

1174
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 3: more red cards against them than Fulham, so they played

1175
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:28,240
Speaker 3: an extra two matches up a man, which they were

1176
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 3: you know, plus three and a half XG in those

1177
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 3: two matches. Penalties no team, only one team had more

1178
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 3: penalties awarded and only and no team gave away more

1179
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 3: penalties than Fulham last year, which is pretty crazy. So

1180
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:43,520
Speaker 3: there's all kinds of shit with Fulham, but they were

1181
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 3: bottom five and rolling actually difference the last two thirds

1182
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 3: of the year. When sweechovich On's faced that suspension, it

1183
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 3: only got worse. But like, there's other teams that also

1184
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:54,160
Speaker 3: have kind of huge holes here that I'm also betting,

1185
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 3: Like Wolves five to one is still out there to

1186
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 3: be relegated. How are they scoring?

1187
00:58:59,080 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1188
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:03,280
Speaker 3: I don't know either. Mutino is gone. He was kind

1189
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:06,720
Speaker 3: of old, but he was still producing for them. Mutinez

1190
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 3: most passes never as is crazy. He led them and

1191
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 3: pass into the penalty area, carries into the penalty area,

1192
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 3: shots and goals, and he's gone. Their replacement. They lose Collins,

1193
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:23,600
Speaker 3: who was top five in passes in the final third

1194
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:28,840
Speaker 3: as well as a defender young guy. They lose Domitriore,

1195
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,200
Speaker 3: which like sounds like a joke that we're saying this,

1196
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 3: but like he had the most crosses into the penalty

1197
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:37,440
Speaker 3: area last year of any player on Wolves, and the

1198
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:41,400
Speaker 3: replacement is mattheas Kuna two goals in ten point seven

1199
00:59:41,520 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 3: nineties two x G not good. Daniel Pudenz was their

1200
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 3: leading non penalty goal scorer.

1201
00:59:48,160 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 1: With six and they want to sell him right now.

1202
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,040
Speaker 3: And they are not buying. I have heard nobody who

1203
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 3: they're buying.

1204
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:56,320
Speaker 1: Who are they not buying where they're in financial trouble

1205
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 1: and they were.

1206
00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 3: They were one of the four awful attacks last year.

1207
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 3: And it's going to be worse. It is one hundred

1208
01:00:03,240 --> 01:00:05,960
Speaker 3: percent worse. They had an awful shot quality last year

1209
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 3: and never hit a couple bangers. They had some timely moments.

1210
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:16,200
Speaker 3: He's gone. There's nothing Palace. They lost wolf Zaha, who's

1211
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 3: the most important player in the Premier League to their team.

1212
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 3: They might lose Michael Alise. Michael Elise led Palace in

1213
01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 3: penalty area passes, crosses him, Alise, Zaja and Alisa and

1214
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 3: As they were the whole team going forward, they lose

1215
01:00:33,440 --> 01:00:35,600
Speaker 3: them all. They have a high defensive floor because their

1216
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 3: defenders are very good, but they couldn't score for large

1217
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:40,400
Speaker 3: parts last year. It costs Vierra his job. Do we

1218
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:43,840
Speaker 3: really think that Roy Hodgson is going to solve any

1219
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 3: of their problems? So these teams like Palace and like Wolves,

1220
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 3: who maybe not didn't have relegation numbers last year, certainly

1221
01:00:53,080 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 3: could this year. Like there's a lot of risk for

1222
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 3: those guys, those teams, And we didn't even mention.

1223
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 1: Moys Yeah, yeah, so like still still they are still

1224
01:01:05,400 --> 01:01:08,520
Speaker 1: the only team who has not purchased one player in

1225
01:01:08,600 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 1: this transfer market.

1226
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:13,240
Speaker 2: They're bizarre, Like it's it's I almost feel like he's

1227
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:15,400
Speaker 2: doing it that purpose, because this is what David Moyays

1228
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,800
Speaker 2: likes to do. It's just he's amazing.

1229
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 1: He's in a he's basically in a fight with their

1230
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:23,920
Speaker 1: Yeah they're a director, Like they're just they're just butting

1231
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 1: heads back and forth.

1232
01:01:25,480 --> 01:01:27,840
Speaker 2: But I remember when when he had one of his

1233
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 2: best seasons at Everdon, which was like you know, two

1234
01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 2: thousand and six, when they were they basically didn't bring

1235
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 2: anybody in. They played the same eleven guys over and

1236
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 2: over and over. Again, and they were extremely healthy obviously

1237
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:41,320
Speaker 2: to do that. But I feel like Moyes likes to

1238
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:46,640
Speaker 2: almost just stack the chips against himself. It makes him

1239
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:52,400
Speaker 2: feel alive. But this is this is why you know

1240
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:55,680
Speaker 2: what you're talking about with the the league being basically

1241
01:01:55,800 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 2: two blobs, it's spot on all these teams are. It

1242
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 2: would drive it drives me up a wall being an

1243
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:08,920
Speaker 2: evidence fan watching what what you know, the inactivity in

1244
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 2: the summer and obviously the financial constraints are are playing

1245
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:17,480
Speaker 2: into it, but it's it's like there, it's so easy.

1246
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 2: It'd be so easy for if things were just in

1247
01:02:20,240 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 2: the vacuum, just be like all you need to do

1248
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:23,880
Speaker 2: is all everything needs to do is sign a striker

1249
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:26,080
Speaker 2: and and and one more center back. And I think

1250
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 2: they'd be safe.

1251
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 1: Yeah I do too, And yeah, but like a good midfield,

1252
01:02:32,560 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 1: they're fine.

1253
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:39,480
Speaker 2: Yeah they apparent. The other teams might good have they

1254
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:41,160
Speaker 2: don't have a good midfield. I think they they do

1255
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:43,720
Speaker 2: have a good midfield and the great goalkeeper, and they've

1256
01:02:43,720 --> 01:02:44,600
Speaker 2: got a good manager and.

1257
01:02:45,120 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 1: And they have a good plan, Like they have a plan.

1258
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:49,040
Speaker 1: A lot of these other teams don't have.

1259
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying, If if, if if wolves was

1260
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:54,520
Speaker 2: just like, all right, let's just go get that vague

1261
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:56,640
Speaker 2: horse or something like, you know, like that wouldn't help.

1262
01:02:57,080 --> 01:02:59,400
Speaker 2: But you know that prototype is what I'm saying, Just like,

1263
01:02:59,480 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 2: go get a posture and and it's one thing and

1264
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 2: and and that should just be the difference between you

1265
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 2: and this pack of eight teams, and all of a

1266
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 2: sudden you're safely in fourteenth. There these teams are all

1267
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 2: bizarre to me. I don't know if I've seen a

1268
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:18,960
Speaker 2: relegation run like this, because you know, we we we don't.

1269
01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 2: This is nobody's talking about Burnley being in trouble. Everyone's

1270
01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:25,280
Speaker 2: just assuming that Vice Vincent Company is a.

1271
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 1: Burnley's. So Burnley's so interesting to me because like a

1272
01:03:30,600 --> 01:03:32,920
Speaker 1: great comparison to what Burnley is right now. And like

1273
01:03:33,120 --> 01:03:35,160
Speaker 1: if you go back, you know, like and you read

1274
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 1: all the tacticle stuff that Burnley did in the Championship,

1275
01:03:37,680 --> 01:03:39,880
Speaker 1: like people called basically called them like the best team

1276
01:03:39,920 --> 01:03:43,040
Speaker 1: that the Championship has ever seen, Like how beautiful it was, Like,

1277
01:03:44,080 --> 01:03:46,400
Speaker 1: but we just saw that two years ago, like Fulham

1278
01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:48,160
Speaker 1: put up did the same thing. Number they had the

1279
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 1: same I possession dominant team that could just build out

1280
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 1: of the back and play through and just destroy teams.

1281
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:56,479
Speaker 1: I Met scored forty three goals in the championship that season,

1282
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 1: like he was insane. But then what happened? Fulham came

1283
01:03:59,440 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 1: to the Primarily they couldn't control possessions, so what do

1284
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:04,800
Speaker 1: they do? They have to play insanely direct. They overperformed

1285
01:04:04,840 --> 01:04:06,800
Speaker 1: like crazy to finish tenth and now we're talking about

1286
01:04:06,800 --> 01:04:09,560
Speaker 1: them for relegation. So now Burnley comes in. This is

1287
01:04:09,640 --> 01:04:12,200
Speaker 1: not the Burnley that you've seen the Seawan Nitcher. If

1288
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 1: you're somebody who's like, oh yeah, I saw Burnley a

1289
01:04:14,320 --> 01:04:15,840
Speaker 1: couple of years ago in the Premier League, they're gonna

1290
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 1: be that low block center team that just you know,

1291
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 1: only scores off of corners, Like that is not at

1292
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:22,080
Speaker 1: all what they are. I mean, Vincent Company has taken

1293
01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:24,720
Speaker 1: a lot of principles of what Pep Guardiola has done

1294
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:28,120
Speaker 1: at Manchester City and applied them to his Burnley team.

1295
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:30,000
Speaker 1: But now you're coming up in the Premier League and

1296
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 1: you're not gonna be able to hold be able to

1297
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:35,200
Speaker 1: hold sixty five percent possession like they did in the championship. Oh,

1298
01:04:35,320 --> 01:04:38,320
Speaker 1: they also overperformed. They're actually by twenty goals offensively, so

1299
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 1: now you're going to come into this type of situation

1300
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:44,640
Speaker 1: where now I don't think they're getting relegated, but the

1301
01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:48,920
Speaker 1: love But again, they're in this pack where like Burnley

1302
01:04:49,000 --> 01:04:51,040
Speaker 1: is a team that I'm looking at, I'm saying that, oh,

1303
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 1: there's some things that can truly go wrong for them,

1304
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 1: like if theyre don't switch their style of play and

1305
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:57,280
Speaker 1: they're not able to build out of the back and

1306
01:04:57,360 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 1: they're not able to play through these press giants that

1307
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 1: they're going to see throughout the Premier League on a

1308
01:05:02,440 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 1: weekend week out basis, you know, talent wise, they have

1309
01:05:04,960 --> 01:05:07,200
Speaker 1: brought in some some you know, some good guys and

1310
01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:09,680
Speaker 1: I think that they should be, you know, in that

1311
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 1: middle tier, like they probably should finish like thirteenth or fourteenth.

1312
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 1: But I mean they're not worse than Fulham, They're not

1313
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:18,640
Speaker 1: worse than Wolves. And that's kind of the conversation that

1314
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:20,960
Speaker 1: we keep coming back to, is that there's this slog

1315
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 1: of ten teams that honestly could get relegated and one

1316
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:29,720
Speaker 1: we've kind of talked about. I mean, west Ham to

1317
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:32,360
Speaker 1: not buy anybody after getting all the Declan Rice money.

1318
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 1: And what people don't realize also is that Thomas Soyschek

1319
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 1: has been absolutely shit for going on about two seasons now.

1320
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: He had a great season a couple of years ago,

1321
01:05:40,680 --> 01:05:42,840
Speaker 1: right for the Euros. He scored like ten goals. You know,

1322
01:05:42,920 --> 01:05:45,560
Speaker 1: he was getting forward a ton and decland Rice made

1323
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 1: up for a lot of how bad he was in

1324
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 1: the middle of the field. And now they don't really

1325
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 1: have a replacement for that Nest. Now their midfield is

1326
01:05:51,320 --> 01:05:54,040
Speaker 1: going to suck. Defensively. They have brought in some guys

1327
01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:56,520
Speaker 1: and they like obviously west Ham like underperformed last season.

1328
01:05:56,600 --> 01:05:59,120
Speaker 1: But to lose your best player, somebody who is literally

1329
01:05:59,320 --> 01:06:01,760
Speaker 1: everything to you in terms of your ball progression to

1330
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:03,760
Speaker 1: winning the ball in the middle of the pitch and

1331
01:06:03,880 --> 01:06:07,440
Speaker 1: then just having strikers who couldn't score like that's going

1332
01:06:07,480 --> 01:06:09,400
Speaker 1: to be a massive drop off for west Ham if

1333
01:06:09,440 --> 01:06:11,600
Speaker 1: they don't go out and get somebody. I saw they've

1334
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:13,400
Speaker 1: been in the market for James Ward Prowse. Looks like

1335
01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:16,480
Speaker 1: that's not gonna happen anymore. I don't see it with

1336
01:06:16,520 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 1: west Ham. I know you got Anthony and Michael. I

1337
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:20,720
Speaker 1: think you're both on them at twelve to one to

1338
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 1: be relegated. I don't think that's a bad price, like

1339
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:26,360
Speaker 1: they're getting overvalued way too much in this market of

1340
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:30,160
Speaker 1: ten teams when they're really not that much better than

1341
01:06:30,680 --> 01:06:32,040
Speaker 1: a lot of these teams in this slog.

1342
01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:35,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, west Ham, this is this is

1343
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 3: we talked about this. There are so many teams in

1344
01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:40,360
Speaker 3: this little tier that lost their best player or their

1345
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 3: second best player or both and made no attempt thus far.

1346
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:47,040
Speaker 3: Thus far. It is only we're recording this August second.

1347
01:06:47,560 --> 01:06:49,520
Speaker 3: Their transfer windows open for twenty nine more days, and

1348
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 3: west Ham does have a lot of money to spend,

1349
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:55,960
Speaker 3: so things can change. But they need to buy a striker,

1350
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:58,160
Speaker 3: and they need to buy another midfielder or two. Because

1351
01:06:58,160 --> 01:07:02,560
Speaker 3: you're right about the check works well with Rice because

1352
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:04,720
Speaker 3: Rice gets on the ball so much, Sochick can do

1353
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:07,400
Speaker 3: some ball winning, some pressing, win some headers. Doesn't ever

1354
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 3: have to pass because he can't really do it. Rice

1355
01:07:10,280 --> 01:07:12,120
Speaker 3: had two hundred and thirty three pass in the final

1356
01:07:12,160 --> 01:07:14,720
Speaker 3: third last year. The next most player on west Ham

1357
01:07:14,840 --> 01:07:17,880
Speaker 3: was ninety eight. He had the most tackles, the most interceptions.

1358
01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 3: He's rubyen Nevez to Wolves, but even more important, and

1359
01:07:21,280 --> 01:07:24,440
Speaker 3: they are not replacing him. Paketta is okay, but he's

1360
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:27,280
Speaker 3: not going to create many shots McKell Antonio is well

1361
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:27,959
Speaker 3: passed his prime.

1362
01:07:28,040 --> 01:07:31,280
Speaker 2: Now who's gonna score up to Macca might leave, Yeah,

1363
01:07:31,560 --> 01:07:33,760
Speaker 2: it's gonna be Jared Bowen's going, He's going to enter.

1364
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:34,280
Speaker 1: He's gone.

1365
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:37,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jared not it anywhere.

1366
01:07:38,320 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's just so.

1367
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:41,720
Speaker 3: Who's scoring goals? Who's passing it to them to score

1368
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 3: the goals. They were one of the least efficient teams

1369
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:46,760
Speaker 3: in the league last year and they you know, like

1370
01:07:46,880 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 3: we said, they had the seventh fewest carries and passes

1371
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 3: in the final third last year. They had the third

1372
01:07:50,880 --> 01:07:53,960
Speaker 3: and lowest possession ring. They had an old team. They

1373
01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 3: were the oldest team in the league them in Fulham,

1374
01:07:56,760 --> 01:07:58,919
Speaker 3: by the way, oldest average age in the Premier League

1375
01:07:59,000 --> 01:08:01,960
Speaker 3: last year. They have made no signings. They're in Europe

1376
01:08:02,080 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 3: because they won the conference leagues in Europa League.

1377
01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:06,160
Speaker 2: So what like, what is god?

1378
01:08:06,480 --> 01:08:09,840
Speaker 3: What is going on do these teams? Like, like I said,

1379
01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:12,760
Speaker 3: there's still twenty nine more days, but like west Ham,

1380
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:18,479
Speaker 3: Fulham Palace Wolves are just having the most bizarre summers

1381
01:08:18,680 --> 01:08:20,920
Speaker 3: I've ever seen for a league that has so much

1382
01:08:21,000 --> 01:08:23,320
Speaker 3: money like all these other leagues, there's.

1383
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:25,400
Speaker 2: Ever like you're broke, you could throw everything in there.

1384
01:08:25,520 --> 01:08:28,280
Speaker 1: I think I think the conversation. I think Wolves, I

1385
01:08:28,360 --> 01:08:30,240
Speaker 1: think they've spent all their money, Like if you think

1386
01:08:30,320 --> 01:08:32,160
Speaker 1: of about the signings they've brought in. I mean, they

1387
01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:35,040
Speaker 1: spent upwards of two hundred million dollars to assemble a squad,

1388
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:38,519
Speaker 1: and now you're getting no production from Kunya. You're getting

1389
01:08:38,520 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 1: you know, mittheas Unis. They spent fifty million on him

1390
01:08:41,320 --> 01:08:42,920
Speaker 1: and Collins. I mean they got the money back they

1391
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:45,080
Speaker 1: got for him. But like you know, if you look

1392
01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:47,519
Speaker 1: at Tomato and all these guys, like they spent big

1393
01:08:47,640 --> 01:08:50,200
Speaker 1: money to bring these guys over to Wolves, and now

1394
01:08:50,320 --> 01:08:51,680
Speaker 1: they've gotten no production.

1395
01:08:51,560 --> 01:08:54,719
Speaker 2: There now, and then they they do behind what everdent.

1396
01:08:54,760 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 2: They basically did what Everden did four years ago, when

1397
01:08:57,160 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 2: like they did the Cigaret sin et cetera. Stuff.

1398
01:08:59,479 --> 01:09:01,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, and I think what's happened is like

1399
01:09:01,680 --> 01:09:05,839
Speaker 1: their owners there. I believe they're owned by a Chinese

1400
01:09:05,880 --> 01:09:09,400
Speaker 1: businessman who is incredibly rich, but I think he's just

1401
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:11,720
Speaker 1: tired of spending money and not seeing any results for it.

1402
01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:14,680
Speaker 2: So now just does what Jorge Mendish says to right.

1403
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:18,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way, Loegy basically like did a whole

1404
01:09:18,760 --> 01:09:20,920
Speaker 1: interview basically saying like yeah, we're not going to make

1405
01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: any signings. It's a really bad situation and I'm probably

1406
01:09:25,240 --> 01:09:26,720
Speaker 1: leaving very very soon.

1407
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:30,200
Speaker 3: So Wolves were old too. So here's here's what I'm betting.

1408
01:09:31,240 --> 01:09:33,880
Speaker 3: I bet Wolves five to one. I bet Palace plus

1409
01:09:33,960 --> 01:09:36,479
Speaker 3: seven fifty. I bet west Ham fourteen to one to

1410
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:38,479
Speaker 3: be relegated. I think all three of them are going

1411
01:09:38,560 --> 01:09:41,000
Speaker 3: to fall back into that pack. And I know all

1412
01:09:41,040 --> 01:09:42,680
Speaker 3: three of them Wolves left so but all three of

1413
01:09:42,720 --> 01:09:46,240
Speaker 3: them had those underlying numbers that were better than those

1414
01:09:46,320 --> 01:09:48,600
Speaker 3: relegation teams last year. But all three of them have

1415
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:52,920
Speaker 3: zero point zero attacking quality outside of maybe Jared Bowen

1416
01:09:52,960 --> 01:09:55,200
Speaker 3: and at last, say if he stays like Palace, if

1417
01:09:55,200 --> 01:09:58,200
Speaker 3: they keep only say, I think maybe has enough with

1418
01:09:58,280 --> 01:10:01,320
Speaker 3: their defense being good. But if he leaves, they don't

1419
01:10:01,400 --> 01:10:03,519
Speaker 3: have money. It's gonna be hard to get somebody to

1420
01:10:03,560 --> 01:10:06,759
Speaker 3: come in to play with Hodson. It's a very tricky situation.

1421
01:10:07,000 --> 01:10:09,719
Speaker 3: So I'm betting all three are them to be relegated.

1422
01:10:10,920 --> 01:10:12,800
Speaker 3: You know the Matrivich stuff in Fulham and now I'm

1423
01:10:12,840 --> 01:10:15,400
Speaker 3: getting scared on them to Fullham to the bottom. Like

1424
01:10:15,479 --> 01:10:19,040
Speaker 3: I said, I don't want these Burnley Bornemuth Forest teams

1425
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:20,680
Speaker 3: because the price is not good when I don't think

1426
01:10:20,680 --> 01:10:22,439
Speaker 3: there's much of a gap there there, it's just a blob.

1427
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:28,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, and bet three six y five has market and

1428
01:10:28,640 --> 01:10:32,200
Speaker 2: you'll see these pop up around around the the betting

1429
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:38,759
Speaker 2: sphere of a trycast for relegation. So in other words,

1430
01:10:38,920 --> 01:10:41,720
Speaker 2: just getting all three teams, you know, think of it

1431
01:10:41,760 --> 01:10:44,240
Speaker 2: as like a three legg parlay of teams being relegated.

1432
01:10:45,560 --> 01:10:48,519
Speaker 2: You can have some fun, like you want to set

1433
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:52,400
Speaker 2: aside thirty bucks and put ten dollars on three different

1434
01:10:52,479 --> 01:10:53,879
Speaker 2: long shots where you're throwing.

1435
01:10:53,720 --> 01:10:57,680
Speaker 1: In just yeah, any any combination involving Fulham.

1436
01:10:57,400 --> 01:10:59,600
Speaker 2: And Wood Bullet, Fulham and well, I think and you

1437
01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:02,080
Speaker 2: can't even West like West, I think West too like

1438
01:11:02,479 --> 01:11:03,880
Speaker 2: or do you even throw Luton in there if you

1439
01:11:03,920 --> 01:11:05,960
Speaker 2: truly believe like Luton's the worst team in the league and.

1440
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:08,439
Speaker 1: Everything, like I mean I don't think they mean yes,

1441
01:11:08,600 --> 01:11:10,559
Speaker 1: like talent wise are the worst team, but like if

1442
01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:12,000
Speaker 1: you want to throw them in with those two, like

1443
01:11:12,040 --> 01:11:13,599
Speaker 1: you can still get a really good price on us.

1444
01:11:13,840 --> 01:11:16,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's uh, this is this is also the product

1445
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 3: of like all three teams staying up last year, which

1446
01:11:18,920 --> 01:11:21,360
Speaker 3: like never happens. Yeah, and we we haven't really talked

1447
01:11:21,360 --> 01:11:24,719
Speaker 3: about Nottingham, Forest and Bournemouth much. We like Bournemouth. Forrest

1448
01:11:24,720 --> 01:11:27,160
Speaker 3: we're kind of uncertain about. But like there's also the

1449
01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:29,280
Speaker 3: second year syndrome for some of those teams. Fulham would

1450
01:11:29,320 --> 01:11:31,880
Speaker 3: be the class example. Fulham is like the Sheffield of

1451
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:33,200
Speaker 3: a couple years ago that you know, they had that

1452
01:11:33,240 --> 01:11:34,680
Speaker 3: great first year and they were the worst team in

1453
01:11:34,680 --> 01:11:36,760
Speaker 3: the league. You could see that, you could see the

1454
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:40,400
Speaker 3: bearings of that forming already.

1455
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:43,000
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, so I've talked myself into Fulham, Luton

1456
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:44,880
Speaker 2: and Wolves set one hundred and twenty five to one.

1457
01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:47,479
Speaker 3: Very good. I think all five. I think they might

1458
01:11:47,520 --> 01:11:50,759
Speaker 3: have to relegate like six teams this year, honestly.

1459
01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:53,519
Speaker 2: And then there's a lot of teams champions like I

1460
01:11:53,640 --> 01:11:54,759
Speaker 2: just went ever to go bust.

1461
01:11:54,880 --> 01:11:57,479
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I already missed Lester and Leads Like Lester

1462
01:11:57,560 --> 01:12:00,320
Speaker 3: and Leeds are better than like six of these teams. Yep,

1463
01:12:01,200 --> 01:12:04,120
Speaker 3: believe Needs and Lester could finish like twelve this year.

1464
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:06,880
Speaker 1: I gotta do a shameless promotion. I rode up in

1465
01:12:06,960 --> 01:12:10,840
Speaker 1: English Championship Futures column for the season. So if you're

1466
01:12:10,880 --> 01:12:12,599
Speaker 1: interested in that, go to the Action Network dot com

1467
01:12:12,720 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 1: and read it. But but Middlesbroughs winning the league.

1468
01:12:16,479 --> 01:12:16,800
Speaker 3: What are they?

1469
01:12:16,840 --> 01:12:17,200
Speaker 1: What's there on?

1470
01:12:17,320 --> 01:12:20,560
Speaker 3: Eleven to one, eleven to one, mm hmm, the Borough.

1471
01:12:21,280 --> 01:12:25,560
Speaker 2: Michael Carrick at all three Northeast teams back in the

1472
01:12:26,160 --> 01:12:28,880
Speaker 2: or North, you know, in Northwest teams in the Premier League.

1473
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:30,320
Speaker 2: If we can get Sunderland up too.

1474
01:12:31,200 --> 01:12:33,479
Speaker 1: That'd be great. We need we need we need that

1475
01:12:33,600 --> 01:12:35,439
Speaker 1: Derby them in Newcastle, that Derby, that's one of the

1476
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:36,559
Speaker 1: best Derby's out there.

1477
01:12:36,640 --> 01:12:40,040
Speaker 2: We need that back, all right, gold the Boot time

1478
01:12:41,040 --> 01:12:41,599
Speaker 2: nothing else.

1479
01:12:41,479 --> 01:12:45,680
Speaker 1: On relegation with the relegated. Let's move on.

1480
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:50,559
Speaker 2: Let's see we relegated Lowton, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, west Ham

1481
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 2: and west Ham. So five teams we relegated and not even.

1482
01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:57,360
Speaker 3: Sheffield who uh who lost their best player?

1483
01:12:57,439 --> 01:12:59,880
Speaker 2: We hate We think Burdley's overrated, but we're not really,

1484
01:13:00,680 --> 01:13:04,080
Speaker 2: even though they're only Yeah. Okay, hopefully you got all

1485
01:13:04,120 --> 01:13:09,040
Speaker 2: that down. Golden Boot should be a little bit more straightforward.

1486
01:13:12,280 --> 01:13:14,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go first because we talked a little bit

1487
01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:19,320
Speaker 2: about him earlier. One of the things we talked about

1488
01:13:19,320 --> 01:13:22,200
Speaker 2: at the end of last season was I can't wait

1489
01:13:22,240 --> 01:13:24,880
Speaker 2: to see what they post Brighton at to win the

1490
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:29,320
Speaker 2: Premier League. Hopefully we get like triple digits. Whoops. The

1491
01:13:29,439 --> 01:13:31,960
Speaker 2: market market knows that Brighton's a good team.

1492
01:13:32,160 --> 01:13:34,080
Speaker 1: The gig is up, Michael, Yeah, the gig is up.

1493
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:38,479
Speaker 2: And the next my next thought was, we'll see what

1494
01:13:38,520 --> 01:13:41,559
Speaker 2: we can get Evan Ferguson at to win the Golden Boot.

1495
01:13:41,600 --> 01:13:44,200
Speaker 2: Hopefully we'll get, you know, a big number. I've seen

1496
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:46,519
Speaker 2: him as low as thirty to one, but there is

1497
01:13:46,560 --> 01:13:50,360
Speaker 2: a fifty. There's a there's a fifty to one out there.

1498
01:13:51,960 --> 01:13:55,920
Speaker 1: That's insane. That's the most like the gig is.

1499
01:13:58,640 --> 01:14:04,200
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, everybody, but he's uh, he's he is

1500
01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:05,840
Speaker 2: as high as you can you can find a fifty

1501
01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:08,600
Speaker 2: on him. I think if you are going to be

1502
01:14:08,640 --> 01:14:13,240
Speaker 2: betting Brighton to like finish top six, it almost just

1503
01:14:13,320 --> 01:14:16,160
Speaker 2: makes sense to or or top four. It makes sense

1504
01:14:16,200 --> 01:14:19,160
Speaker 2: to bet Ferguson to win the Golden Boot two because

1505
01:14:19,240 --> 01:14:21,479
Speaker 2: you're gonna need a big season out of him. They

1506
01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:25,559
Speaker 2: generate a ton, he scores a ton. He's young, he's

1507
01:14:26,160 --> 01:14:29,439
Speaker 2: only gonna get better. Yeah, he's only he's the Irish

1508
01:14:29,479 --> 01:14:31,240
Speaker 2: Holland he's only gonna get better.

1509
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:34,120
Speaker 1: Seriously, Yeah, and you can get serious and the way that.

1510
01:14:34,160 --> 01:14:36,040
Speaker 2: This market kind of breaks down is similar to the

1511
01:14:36,080 --> 01:14:37,800
Speaker 2: title race, I would say, whereas like you got the

1512
01:14:37,840 --> 01:14:40,360
Speaker 2: odds on favorite, you're gonna need something wrong to go

1513
01:14:40,479 --> 01:14:42,679
Speaker 2: wrong for Holland. Right, He's either gonna have to start slow,

1514
01:14:42,800 --> 01:14:45,320
Speaker 2: get hurt whatever, he's gotta get hurt and if he

1515
01:14:45,439 --> 01:14:49,120
Speaker 2: but if he does, and if he does, then the

1516
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:53,200
Speaker 2: pack is wide open. I think, like and Ferguson Anthony

1517
01:14:53,280 --> 01:14:56,160
Speaker 2: you said it like, I think he's got twenty goal potential.

1518
01:14:56,880 --> 01:15:01,400
Speaker 2: If you can get twenty two, maybe, like you're within

1519
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:03,920
Speaker 2: a shot here. As long as Holland doesn't play half

1520
01:15:03,960 --> 01:15:04,600
Speaker 2: the season.

1521
01:15:05,080 --> 01:15:06,680
Speaker 3: The nice of King would get sold too.

1522
01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:10,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that that kind of court that that now

1523
01:15:10,040 --> 01:15:11,439
Speaker 2: that you mention it, the only other one I have

1524
01:15:11,520 --> 01:15:13,880
Speaker 2: any interest in is is ri Charleison a one hundred

1525
01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:15,840
Speaker 2: to one, and I would just would bet it now

1526
01:15:15,920 --> 01:15:19,880
Speaker 2: and and in case King gets sold. And uh, this

1527
01:15:20,160 --> 01:15:24,360
Speaker 2: this Apasta co Glu revolution at Spurs, which I think

1528
01:15:24,680 --> 01:15:27,400
Speaker 2: should drive up their goal scoring numbers quite a bit,

1529
01:15:29,680 --> 01:15:33,760
Speaker 2: leads to richarliston having a massive season. I think he's

1530
01:15:33,840 --> 01:15:38,080
Speaker 2: going to he's he's he's such a good player and

1531
01:15:38,400 --> 01:15:42,040
Speaker 2: he was robbed of a season by evil Spurs last year.

1532
01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:45,840
Speaker 1: So but he had the moment against Liverpool Michael he did, and.

1533
01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:48,760
Speaker 2: He was great at the World Cup yep, and we

1534
01:15:48,840 --> 01:15:53,560
Speaker 2: miss him terribly at Everdent. But those are be the

1535
01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:55,720
Speaker 2: only two that I have any interest in. I know,

1536
01:15:56,160 --> 01:15:59,400
Speaker 2: BJ could tell us about another one that, yeah, another

1537
01:15:59,439 --> 01:16:01,360
Speaker 2: guy that I like. Can you just make this? Can

1538
01:16:01,439 --> 01:16:04,799
Speaker 2: they just throw us a bone and make either Ferguson

1539
01:16:04,880 --> 01:16:06,000
Speaker 2: or e Shack one hundred to one?

1540
01:16:06,720 --> 01:16:09,080
Speaker 1: I know, I mean I like Eshak at forty to one.

1541
01:16:09,280 --> 01:16:11,280
Speaker 1: Like I said before, I truly think he's a top

1542
01:16:11,360 --> 01:16:13,400
Speaker 1: five striker in the Premier League in terms of talent level.

1543
01:16:13,640 --> 01:16:15,639
Speaker 1: He's got every single finish that you know, you could

1544
01:16:15,680 --> 01:16:18,760
Speaker 1: imagine as a striker. And you know, I wrote about

1545
01:16:18,800 --> 01:16:21,720
Speaker 1: him in the summer about how you know Newcastle and

1546
01:16:21,800 --> 01:16:25,160
Speaker 1: their style of play leads to so many transitional opportunities,

1547
01:16:25,240 --> 01:16:28,040
Speaker 1: leads to so many great chances for him to score,

1548
01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:30,960
Speaker 1: and he did have like what you so to win this,

1549
01:16:31,240 --> 01:16:33,040
Speaker 1: you're going to have to take a striker that has

1550
01:16:33,080 --> 01:16:36,320
Speaker 1: the potential to essentially go on a run like like

1551
01:16:36,479 --> 01:16:39,759
Speaker 1: Holland did. So there was a period from about March

1552
01:16:40,000 --> 01:16:43,280
Speaker 1: towards close to the end of April where Eshak scored

1553
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:45,960
Speaker 1: a think it was eight goals in seven matches and

1554
01:16:46,160 --> 01:16:49,800
Speaker 1: was just scoring from everywhere. Newcastle was flying offensively. What

1555
01:16:49,960 --> 01:16:51,519
Speaker 1: you need him to do is to be able to

1556
01:16:51,640 --> 01:16:54,360
Speaker 1: have that type production and he's obviously not gonna peak

1557
01:16:54,439 --> 01:16:57,400
Speaker 1: that for an entire season, but have those little runs

1558
01:16:57,520 --> 01:17:00,360
Speaker 1: throughout the season to try and catch Holland. I found

1559
01:17:00,400 --> 01:17:03,639
Speaker 1: it interesting, Michael Hollinds, you want to guess what Holland's

1560
01:17:03,640 --> 01:17:06,280
Speaker 1: over under for goals is this season in the Premier

1561
01:17:06,360 --> 01:17:06,920
Speaker 1: League only.

1562
01:17:10,439 --> 01:17:11,360
Speaker 2: Thirty three and a half.

1563
01:17:12,120 --> 01:17:14,840
Speaker 1: It's twenty nine and a half. He had twenty eight

1564
01:17:14,880 --> 01:17:17,800
Speaker 1: point four expected goals last season, so they know, like

1565
01:17:17,880 --> 01:17:20,280
Speaker 1: they know that over he did overperform, but also he was.

1566
01:17:20,320 --> 01:17:23,719
Speaker 3: Like a Miles what He's always going to overperform.

1567
01:17:23,920 --> 01:17:27,200
Speaker 1: Yeah he is. He's a great striker. Yeah he's great.

1568
01:17:27,240 --> 01:17:28,080
Speaker 1: He's gonna overperform.

1569
01:17:28,120 --> 01:17:28,720
Speaker 2: It is what it is.

1570
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:31,720
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's just hard in this market because I mean,

1571
01:17:31,800 --> 01:17:35,439
Speaker 1: Holland's minus won forty to win the Golden Boot. I

1572
01:17:35,479 --> 01:17:37,400
Speaker 1: don't know if I've ever seen somebody at a minus

1573
01:17:37,520 --> 01:17:40,479
Speaker 1: number to win the Golden booton in England, especially a

1574
01:17:40,560 --> 01:17:43,439
Speaker 1: league with so many great strikers. But again for a

1575
01:17:43,479 --> 01:17:46,439
Speaker 1: striker like he's shock who's playing for a top four

1576
01:17:46,520 --> 01:17:50,080
Speaker 1: team what should be a top five for six offense

1577
01:17:50,479 --> 01:17:52,920
Speaker 1: in the Premier League, and given the talent that he has,

1578
01:17:54,240 --> 01:17:56,519
Speaker 1: the potential is through the roof. And I think you

1579
01:17:56,640 --> 01:17:59,000
Speaker 1: have to find somebody in this litwer tier that has

1580
01:17:59,080 --> 01:18:02,000
Speaker 1: that ceiling of somebody like Ah Ferguson, somebody like an E.

1581
01:18:02,160 --> 01:18:04,479
Speaker 1: Shack who has that ceiling to be able to potentially

1582
01:18:04,560 --> 01:18:07,360
Speaker 1: catch Holland if something goes wrong with him. So E

1583
01:18:07,479 --> 01:18:10,639
Speaker 1: Shack at forty to one is my only golden booth future. Also, Michael,

1584
01:18:10,800 --> 01:18:13,559
Speaker 1: to add on to that, you can go read at

1585
01:18:13,560 --> 01:18:15,360
Speaker 1: the actionework dot com. I wrote a little thing about

1586
01:18:15,360 --> 01:18:17,920
Speaker 1: Evan Ferguson going into the season. You know, bet three

1587
01:18:17,920 --> 01:18:20,960
Speaker 1: sixty five has his over runner for goals at fifteen

1588
01:18:20,960 --> 01:18:22,920
Speaker 1: and a half at even money. I've already bet him

1589
01:18:22,960 --> 01:18:26,960
Speaker 1: over over fifteen. Excuse me, it's over fifteen goals of

1590
01:18:27,040 --> 01:18:30,160
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half. So over fifteen goals this season.

1591
01:18:30,280 --> 01:18:32,960
Speaker 1: I think that's a dangerously low number for somebody like

1592
01:18:33,040 --> 01:18:37,120
Speaker 1: you mentioned, has the crazy ceiling at only eighteen years

1593
01:18:37,120 --> 01:18:39,639
Speaker 1: old playing for top four offense in the Premier League.

1594
01:18:39,680 --> 01:18:41,760
Speaker 1: So and I also bet he shock over twenty five

1595
01:18:41,800 --> 01:18:44,000
Speaker 1: goals at fourteen to one, just in case Holland decides

1596
01:18:44,040 --> 01:18:44,960
Speaker 1: to score forty goals.

1597
01:18:46,400 --> 01:18:47,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, you pretty much only have a chance in the

1598
01:18:47,760 --> 01:18:50,759
Speaker 3: golden boot market. I think if Holland's out for extended

1599
01:18:50,760 --> 01:18:54,960
Speaker 3: period of time, like he misses like ten matches, esock

1600
01:18:54,960 --> 01:18:56,240
Speaker 3: would be the name for me too, if I had

1601
01:18:56,280 --> 01:18:59,599
Speaker 3: to bet it. He did have ten goals in seventeen nineties,

1602
01:18:59,640 --> 01:19:01,639
Speaker 3: so you scaled it up because he came in late.

1603
01:19:01,800 --> 01:19:04,519
Speaker 3: Kind of was hurt if he played thirty nineties thirty five?

1604
01:19:05,160 --> 01:19:07,640
Speaker 3: Could he get to twenty twenty five solid on the

1605
01:19:07,680 --> 01:19:12,120
Speaker 3: way down? Came maybe get sold DARWIZZI is interesting, Darwin Nunya.

1606
01:19:12,280 --> 01:19:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's too sure.

1607
01:19:13,320 --> 01:19:14,439
Speaker 1: Is he gonna play short though?

1608
01:19:14,640 --> 01:19:18,400
Speaker 3: That's the thing too, he strike over him. He's not

1609
01:19:18,479 --> 01:19:22,439
Speaker 3: gonna take pens like he's putting up like six shots

1610
01:19:22,479 --> 01:19:23,000
Speaker 3: p ninety.

1611
01:19:23,560 --> 01:19:25,200
Speaker 2: It was I think it was Jota. We all were

1612
01:19:25,280 --> 01:19:26,479
Speaker 2: we all like Jota last.

1613
01:19:26,400 --> 01:19:29,320
Speaker 1: Year heard that, but he was heard the daft. It

1614
01:19:29,360 --> 01:19:31,040
Speaker 1: was thirty three to one, thirty three.

1615
01:19:31,120 --> 01:19:35,559
Speaker 2: Right, so like Nunias is half that number, so than Yeah,

1616
01:19:35,600 --> 01:19:38,519
Speaker 2: I know, but yeah, we were walking into like that situation.

1617
01:19:38,640 --> 01:19:42,320
Speaker 2: I think we could all talk about. I think even

1618
01:19:42,400 --> 01:19:44,719
Speaker 2: twenty five or yeah, thirty.

1619
01:19:45,160 --> 01:19:46,720
Speaker 3: You know, Marwin's the kind of guy that if he

1620
01:19:46,800 --> 01:19:50,080
Speaker 3: did have that go year, like I do think he

1621
01:19:50,120 --> 01:19:52,080
Speaker 3: will have a twenty five goal season. Like he's just

1622
01:19:52,160 --> 01:19:56,320
Speaker 3: that talented. But so yeah, he said sixteen to one

1623
01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:57,439
Speaker 3: when he shot is more than double.

1624
01:19:57,560 --> 01:19:59,519
Speaker 1: Is just crazy. Yeah, you need you need as a

1625
01:19:59,680 --> 01:20:03,599
Speaker 1: a really talented striker on a top four or five offense,

1626
01:20:03,760 --> 01:20:07,439
Speaker 1: like none of these teams, you know, like nobody on

1627
01:20:07,479 --> 01:20:09,400
Speaker 1: Aston Villa, you know, to know Alie Watkins is not

1628
01:20:09,840 --> 01:20:11,639
Speaker 1: ten for it. So you need one of these two

1629
01:20:11,680 --> 01:20:15,000
Speaker 1: Brighton's Liverpool's arsenals. I think there's two goal scorings to

1630
01:20:15,160 --> 01:20:17,880
Speaker 1: spread out with Arsenal to actually take anybody from them,

1631
01:20:18,160 --> 01:20:18,759
Speaker 1: as you saw.

1632
01:20:18,880 --> 01:20:20,240
Speaker 3: If soccer was on Pens.

1633
01:20:20,920 --> 01:20:22,720
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, that's see.

1634
01:20:22,760 --> 01:20:25,800
Speaker 3: That's interesting to me because he's twenty.

1635
01:20:25,560 --> 01:20:28,760
Speaker 1: One and then he took He's been on for them

1636
01:20:28,800 --> 01:20:29,360
Speaker 1: for a long time.

1637
01:20:29,439 --> 01:20:31,880
Speaker 2: Odiguard scored fifteen goals for them last year. Like they

1638
01:20:31,960 --> 01:20:32,840
Speaker 2: spread it out too much.

1639
01:20:33,320 --> 01:20:34,439
Speaker 1: Martinelli scored, I think.

1640
01:20:34,360 --> 01:20:36,599
Speaker 3: But they do until they don't though, what do you mean,

1641
01:20:36,680 --> 01:20:38,799
Speaker 3: like the Jaesus is already out.

1642
01:20:39,560 --> 01:20:42,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, but then they also brought it last year.

1643
01:20:43,680 --> 01:20:45,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, Nikata, I'm telling him.

1644
01:20:45,360 --> 01:20:46,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, well he miss the second half of the season.

1645
01:20:46,760 --> 01:20:48,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, Nikata is every bity.

1646
01:20:48,960 --> 01:20:53,040
Speaker 3: Nikatsia is so mid man. No, he's not so mid

1647
01:20:53,200 --> 01:20:54,360
Speaker 3: he's so mid that there he.

1648
01:20:55,960 --> 01:20:59,000
Speaker 1: They keans not to play. But like, no, I mean

1649
01:20:59,240 --> 01:21:02,800
Speaker 1: Nikita had great goal scoring production when Hazus was out.

1650
01:21:02,800 --> 01:21:05,240
Speaker 1: There wasn't this massive drop off when he was. Like

1651
01:21:05,920 --> 01:21:08,360
Speaker 1: people forget like Jesus was there for the end of

1652
01:21:08,400 --> 01:21:10,840
Speaker 1: the season when Arsenal was just getting ripped apart defensively

1653
01:21:10,880 --> 01:21:13,800
Speaker 1: and he really, I mean, he had good number, but.

1654
01:21:14,040 --> 01:21:16,360
Speaker 3: Like, nah, Jaesus is just lying.

1655
01:21:16,520 --> 01:21:18,720
Speaker 1: But he's great. I'm not saying he's bad, but I'm

1656
01:21:18,720 --> 01:21:20,679
Speaker 1: also saying, like Nikays is up there with the level

1657
01:21:20,720 --> 01:21:22,040
Speaker 1: with him, So I don't think there's going to be

1658
01:21:22,479 --> 01:21:24,719
Speaker 1: this big drop off. And also you're bringing Kai Everts

1659
01:21:24,880 --> 01:21:27,560
Speaker 1: as well, so like there's so many players in this

1660
01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:30,599
Speaker 1: Arsenal team that have the goals, so I don't think

1661
01:21:30,640 --> 01:21:32,800
Speaker 1: you can take really anybody on those. And same thing

1662
01:21:32,840 --> 01:21:35,000
Speaker 1: with Liverpool is like the goal scoring is so spread

1663
01:21:35,040 --> 01:21:38,080
Speaker 1: out with them that I don't really see taking anybody

1664
01:21:38,120 --> 01:21:38,519
Speaker 1: from them.

1665
01:21:39,040 --> 01:21:41,760
Speaker 2: Like so it's just like, I mean, you know what's

1666
01:21:41,760 --> 01:21:44,280
Speaker 2: sick is if you bet, But if Holland gets hurt,

1667
01:21:44,280 --> 01:21:46,560
Speaker 2: it's just going to be Julian Alvarez anyways.

1668
01:21:46,439 --> 01:21:48,280
Speaker 1: Maybe short too.

1669
01:21:48,520 --> 01:21:48,760
Speaker 2: I know.

1670
01:21:51,400 --> 01:21:53,320
Speaker 3: Basically we're saying as the hole on the Golden boot

1671
01:21:53,360 --> 01:21:54,519
Speaker 3: market is really big, and.

1672
01:21:55,840 --> 01:21:58,120
Speaker 1: If you're going to take Alvarez, he's nine to one

1673
01:21:58,240 --> 01:22:00,519
Speaker 1: to be city's top goal scorer. Like you want to

1674
01:22:00,520 --> 01:22:02,080
Speaker 1: guess what early in Colin is to be city's top

1675
01:22:02,160 --> 01:22:06,599
Speaker 1: goalscorer of the season minus same price, minus two thousand.

1676
01:22:06,880 --> 01:22:11,160
Speaker 1: So yeah, So like he basically has to get hurt

1677
01:22:11,240 --> 01:22:14,160
Speaker 1: for him not to win. So he does, like and

1678
01:22:14,280 --> 01:22:16,639
Speaker 1: hurt like not hurt, injured, like tearing.

1679
01:22:16,680 --> 01:22:21,040
Speaker 2: Ah, that's what we're talking about, so right, all right,

1680
01:22:21,120 --> 01:22:24,720
Speaker 2: so let's wrap this thing up. Before we do, we'll

1681
01:22:24,800 --> 01:22:30,160
Speaker 2: note that we'll be back on our regular schedule programming

1682
01:22:30,840 --> 01:22:33,000
Speaker 2: ahead of week one, which means that you'll hear from

1683
01:22:33,080 --> 01:22:39,200
Speaker 2: us Thursday morning previewing the upcoming weekend weekend's matches that

1684
01:22:39,280 --> 01:22:43,920
Speaker 2: will be August the tenth. I believe this, yeah, because

1685
01:22:43,960 --> 01:22:47,599
Speaker 2: the season starts on the eleventh with Vincent Company versus

1686
01:22:48,400 --> 01:22:52,360
Speaker 2: Pep Guardiola on a Friday afternoon kickoff, the infamous Friday

1687
01:22:52,360 --> 01:22:57,439
Speaker 2: afternoon kickoff where usually Arsenal plays and either loses to

1688
01:22:57,479 --> 01:23:00,400
Speaker 2: Brentford or gets really lucky and when it gets Palace,

1689
01:23:01,880 --> 01:23:05,800
Speaker 2: but this year it'll be City in Burnley. We'll also

1690
01:23:05,920 --> 01:23:10,800
Speaker 2: have our second annual over under draft with our buddy

1691
01:23:10,920 --> 01:23:14,320
Speaker 2: Alone Shapiro from the FML FPL podcast that'll come out

1692
01:23:14,360 --> 01:23:18,080
Speaker 2: early next week. Anthony and bj will break down the

1693
01:23:18,200 --> 01:23:21,639
Speaker 2: rest of the European leagues pick out their favorite bets.

1694
01:23:21,680 --> 01:23:21,880
Speaker 3: There.

1695
01:23:25,000 --> 01:23:27,240
Speaker 2: We should have just did a relegation odds bet draft

1696
01:23:27,320 --> 01:23:30,080
Speaker 2: because it was like, let me just ask you real quick.

1697
01:23:30,680 --> 01:23:33,200
Speaker 2: I don't want you to go over ten seconds explaining it.

1698
01:23:33,560 --> 01:23:35,559
Speaker 2: If you had the first pick in a relegation odds draft,

1699
01:23:35,600 --> 01:23:37,320
Speaker 2: who would you pick, Anthony.

1700
01:23:39,280 --> 01:23:39,960
Speaker 3: Do you have to bet it?

1701
01:23:41,479 --> 01:23:41,679
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1702
01:23:43,000 --> 01:23:45,479
Speaker 1: Wolves, Wolves, I'll take full long.

1703
01:23:46,040 --> 01:23:49,000
Speaker 2: I would have I probably would have taken I probably

1704
01:23:49,000 --> 01:23:53,160
Speaker 2: would have taken Wolves. Wolves are west Ham.

1705
01:23:53,680 --> 01:23:56,920
Speaker 1: So I'll say we should also mention Michael that me

1706
01:23:57,000 --> 01:24:01,400
Speaker 1: and Anthony will be also on Friday while we're recording

1707
01:24:01,400 --> 01:24:03,760
Speaker 1: a Women's World Cup Round of sixteen podcasts, So if

1708
01:24:03,800 --> 01:24:08,719
Speaker 1: you're so busy, yep, that'll be coming out on Friday,

1709
01:24:09,800 --> 01:24:11,759
Speaker 1: which is actually an interesting round sixteen.

1710
01:24:13,080 --> 01:24:15,720
Speaker 2: All right, so let's wrap up any other bets that

1711
01:24:15,760 --> 01:24:19,360
Speaker 2: we have. Will be quick with these we've already gone

1712
01:24:19,360 --> 01:24:21,560
Speaker 2: pretty long and we apologize to our producers for that.

1713
01:24:22,400 --> 01:24:23,320
Speaker 2: BJ We'll start with you.

1714
01:24:24,080 --> 01:24:25,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like one team we haven't talked about

1715
01:24:25,800 --> 01:24:27,599
Speaker 1: yet is Bournemouth, and it's a seam that I think

1716
01:24:27,600 --> 01:24:31,040
Speaker 1: we're all kind of buying, you know, from what they

1717
01:24:31,120 --> 01:24:34,360
Speaker 1: have done in terms of changing their manager. You know,

1718
01:24:34,439 --> 01:24:37,760
Speaker 1: they brought in a done iola from Rya Vakano, which

1719
01:24:37,880 --> 01:24:42,960
Speaker 1: I ran legend exactly, who I think incredibly raises the

1720
01:24:43,080 --> 01:24:46,800
Speaker 1: ceiling of what Bournemouth can be this season. Now, there's

1721
01:24:46,880 --> 01:24:48,439
Speaker 1: no data points out there that I can tell you

1722
01:24:48,560 --> 01:24:51,320
Speaker 1: that Bournemouth, like you know, buy expected goals or any

1723
01:24:51,360 --> 01:24:52,640
Speaker 1: type of metric, that they are going to be a

1724
01:24:52,720 --> 01:24:56,040
Speaker 1: top ten type team. But from the slog that we've

1725
01:24:56,120 --> 01:24:59,160
Speaker 1: talked about, of any of the teams that have all

1726
01:24:59,200 --> 01:25:02,840
Speaker 1: these problems, like Bournemouth, if we remembered last season, going

1727
01:25:02,920 --> 01:25:05,320
Speaker 1: into last season, they were kind of in this louton

1728
01:25:05,400 --> 01:25:07,800
Speaker 1: town like mold where I think their point total was

1729
01:25:07,880 --> 01:25:10,200
Speaker 1: thirty two and a half going into the season, they

1730
01:25:10,320 --> 01:25:12,600
Speaker 1: made no investments in their squad and they kind of

1731
01:25:12,680 --> 01:25:14,960
Speaker 1: just rolled with what they had in the championship. And

1732
01:25:15,160 --> 01:25:18,280
Speaker 1: then you know, Scott Parker, you know, gets beat nine

1733
01:25:18,320 --> 01:25:20,439
Speaker 1: to nothing by Liverpool, he gets sacked. They bring in

1734
01:25:20,520 --> 01:25:23,240
Speaker 1: Gary O'Neil and you know, he kind of took and

1735
01:25:23,400 --> 01:25:26,080
Speaker 1: he you know, kind of took them to the peak

1736
01:25:26,160 --> 01:25:27,760
Speaker 1: of what they could be. And they made a lot

1737
01:25:27,800 --> 01:25:30,000
Speaker 1: of investments in the January transmittal because they had the

1738
01:25:30,080 --> 01:25:32,360
Speaker 1: change ownership, they had money. They brought in a lot

1739
01:25:32,400 --> 01:25:36,640
Speaker 1: of young talent. Yo Hamad Traore, O'tara Zabroni, who's a

1740
01:25:36,960 --> 01:25:39,360
Speaker 1: very promising center back who didn't really feature last season.

1741
01:25:39,360 --> 01:25:41,720
Speaker 1: I mean this is a you know, Ukrainian center back

1742
01:25:41,760 --> 01:25:43,680
Speaker 1: who started at the age of eighteen for Ukraine and

1743
01:25:43,680 --> 01:25:47,559
Speaker 1: the Euros in twenty twenty one. And Orol is going

1744
01:25:47,600 --> 01:25:50,960
Speaker 1: to immediately change what Bournemouth was because obviously Bournemouth was

1745
01:25:51,000 --> 01:25:53,679
Speaker 1: this passive team that was just trying to play in transition.

1746
01:25:53,840 --> 01:25:57,160
Speaker 1: Like he plays a very very unique style. I think

1747
01:25:57,200 --> 01:25:59,200
Speaker 1: of you know, one of it, he said. One of

1748
01:25:59,280 --> 01:26:01,519
Speaker 1: his a lot of these managers. One of his favorite

1749
01:26:01,560 --> 01:26:04,760
Speaker 1: managers too, or his idols is Marcella Bielsa. So he

1750
01:26:04,880 --> 01:26:09,719
Speaker 1: plays this intense pressing style at Vacano and get moves

1751
01:26:09,800 --> 01:26:11,920
Speaker 1: them up into the top half of the table last season.

1752
01:26:11,960 --> 01:26:15,320
Speaker 1: I mean, they finished last season with the second most

1753
01:26:15,400 --> 01:26:18,639
Speaker 1: high turnovers to Bilbao, the third best passes per defensive action.

1754
01:26:19,160 --> 01:26:21,760
Speaker 1: And another key aspect of him is once they win

1755
01:26:21,840 --> 01:26:24,559
Speaker 1: the ball, he wants these quick transitions to catch teams

1756
01:26:24,560 --> 01:26:27,760
Speaker 1: out of position, So they had the most shots in

1757
01:26:27,960 --> 01:26:31,200
Speaker 1: La Liga off of forced high turnovers. Like that is

1758
01:26:31,880 --> 01:26:34,639
Speaker 1: the perfect blend of what Bournemouth is trying to become,

1759
01:26:34,640 --> 01:26:36,559
Speaker 1: because if you remember at the end of last season,

1760
01:26:37,080 --> 01:26:39,160
Speaker 1: we kept betting Bournemouth to score because they were so

1761
01:26:39,320 --> 01:26:42,639
Speaker 1: dangerous in transition with all these new pieces in their squad,

1762
01:26:43,320 --> 01:26:46,080
Speaker 1: and they actually for a period from about January and

1763
01:26:46,120 --> 01:26:47,960
Speaker 1: they obviously, you know, once they were safe from relegation,

1764
01:26:48,000 --> 01:26:50,880
Speaker 1: they kind of fell off. But they finished like from

1765
01:26:50,920 --> 01:26:52,800
Speaker 1: a good three or four month period as a top

1766
01:26:52,920 --> 01:26:57,559
Speaker 1: ten team and expected goals four. So the ceiling for Bournemouth.

1767
01:26:57,600 --> 01:26:59,800
Speaker 1: They've made investments in their squad, They've brought in a

1768
01:27:00,160 --> 01:27:02,760
Speaker 1: of young talent and I think they're a team if

1769
01:27:02,800 --> 01:27:04,720
Speaker 1: you're going to pick out you know, there's clear top

1770
01:27:04,840 --> 01:27:07,000
Speaker 1: nine in the Premier League. It's like who's going to

1771
01:27:07,040 --> 01:27:08,800
Speaker 1: finish in that tenth spot. We love Brentford, but they're

1772
01:27:08,800 --> 01:27:11,840
Speaker 1: gonna be with out Ivan Tony for about half of

1773
01:27:11,920 --> 01:27:15,439
Speaker 1: the season. So if you're going to take a shot

1774
01:27:15,520 --> 01:27:18,799
Speaker 1: on one of these teams, I think Bournemouth has absolutely

1775
01:27:18,840 --> 01:27:20,920
Speaker 1: the most upside to finish in the top ten. So

1776
01:27:21,000 --> 01:27:23,479
Speaker 1: I like them at nine to one to finish in

1777
01:27:23,520 --> 01:27:24,960
Speaker 1: the top ten. Again, this is the team that had

1778
01:27:24,960 --> 01:27:26,760
Speaker 1: the worst expected gold the French in the Premier League

1779
01:27:26,800 --> 01:27:29,000
Speaker 1: last season, so I can't give you really any like

1780
01:27:29,280 --> 01:27:31,800
Speaker 1: awesome data point that tells you this. But given the

1781
01:27:31,880 --> 01:27:34,599
Speaker 1: manager change, it really raises the ceiling of what Bournemouth

1782
01:27:34,680 --> 01:27:36,920
Speaker 1: can be. So I think there's gonna be some good

1783
01:27:36,920 --> 01:27:39,320
Speaker 1: times in the South Coast this season. And I think

1784
01:27:39,360 --> 01:27:41,560
Speaker 1: there's a decent shot that of all these teams that

1785
01:27:41,640 --> 01:27:45,280
Speaker 1: Bournemouth is has the best shot at the price to

1786
01:27:45,439 --> 01:27:48,360
Speaker 1: finish inside the top ten. And I'll just do one more.

1787
01:27:50,439 --> 01:27:53,200
Speaker 1: Most assists Bruno Fernanz you can find them at twelve

1788
01:27:53,240 --> 01:27:54,680
Speaker 1: to one out there. He led the Premier League with

1789
01:27:54,720 --> 01:27:58,120
Speaker 1: seventeen point four expected assists last season, but only had

1790
01:27:58,160 --> 01:28:01,400
Speaker 1: eight assists because of some poor finish from United. So

1791
01:28:01,560 --> 01:28:03,400
Speaker 1: now you bring in all these and you bring in

1792
01:28:03,479 --> 01:28:06,840
Speaker 1: Highland hopefully you know obviously these other offensive options like

1793
01:28:06,920 --> 01:28:10,519
Speaker 1: Anthony have better seasons at price of twelve to one.

1794
01:28:10,560 --> 01:28:12,320
Speaker 1: I think it's just too good for a guy who

1795
01:28:12,640 --> 01:28:16,800
Speaker 1: literally created the most assists last season. So those are

1796
01:28:16,840 --> 01:28:19,920
Speaker 1: my other two bets, and then try cast These are

1797
01:28:19,920 --> 01:28:22,800
Speaker 1: always fun. But Arsenal City Newcastle, but I've already talked

1798
01:28:22,800 --> 01:28:24,320
Speaker 1: about them. One hundred and fifty to one. I think

1799
01:28:24,360 --> 01:28:27,639
Speaker 1: it's a decent price for how how the Premier League

1800
01:28:27,920 --> 01:28:28,479
Speaker 1: should finish.

1801
01:28:28,960 --> 01:28:31,040
Speaker 2: Bournmth is a is a team that I think will

1802
01:28:31,040 --> 01:28:34,800
Speaker 2: probably pull two, maybe three like big big upsets for

1803
01:28:35,800 --> 01:28:36,320
Speaker 2: they did.

1804
01:28:36,240 --> 01:28:39,000
Speaker 1: They beat Liverpool and then beat to them last season. Yeah,

1805
01:28:39,000 --> 01:28:40,600
Speaker 1: they did pull off a couple of big upsets and

1806
01:28:40,600 --> 01:28:41,599
Speaker 1: they can do it again this season.

1807
01:28:41,720 --> 01:28:43,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're Wolves as well.

1808
01:28:43,400 --> 01:28:46,960
Speaker 3: It was a notable one. It was they were five

1809
01:28:47,040 --> 01:28:48,000
Speaker 3: to one. Crazy thing.

1810
01:28:48,439 --> 01:28:53,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, Anthony, Uh, you want to just run

1811
01:28:53,080 --> 01:28:54,680
Speaker 2: through year your list of bets here.

1812
01:28:55,040 --> 01:28:57,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of matchup stuff and I think

1813
01:28:57,080 --> 01:28:59,040
Speaker 3: that this year is probably the most fun year you'll

1814
01:28:59,040 --> 01:29:02,519
Speaker 3: ever have to play Matt because of the blobs, because

1815
01:29:02,720 --> 01:29:03,960
Speaker 3: you know, the relegation market.

1816
01:29:04,080 --> 01:29:05,800
Speaker 1: That should be the title of this episode, by the way,

1817
01:29:06,080 --> 01:29:08,320
Speaker 1: the Boers Bobs, you're the blobs.

1818
01:29:08,560 --> 01:29:11,600
Speaker 3: So like Arsenal over United is minus one thirty. I

1819
01:29:11,640 --> 01:29:14,200
Speaker 3: think Arsenal has a much higher floor than United and

1820
01:29:14,320 --> 01:29:17,640
Speaker 3: a much higher ceiling than United. I think that they

1821
01:29:17,680 --> 01:29:19,639
Speaker 3: were much much better last year, like almost a half

1822
01:29:19,680 --> 01:29:23,160
Speaker 3: goal per game. The next year underline numbers Brighton minus

1823
01:29:23,200 --> 01:29:25,720
Speaker 3: one fifty five against Villa. We'll get into Villa more

1824
01:29:25,720 --> 01:29:27,040
Speaker 3: in that point total draft. I don't want to go

1825
01:29:27,120 --> 01:29:29,600
Speaker 3: too deep into everything right now because we've kind of

1826
01:29:29,640 --> 01:29:33,400
Speaker 3: run along here and then you know, Brentford man so

1827
01:29:33,560 --> 01:29:37,360
Speaker 3: like they're priced at the bottom, like in the blob,

1828
01:29:37,520 --> 01:29:39,360
Speaker 3: and I just don't think they're in the blob. I

1829
01:29:39,439 --> 01:29:42,200
Speaker 3: don't think that like of those teams in that upper

1830
01:29:42,560 --> 01:29:46,680
Speaker 3: ten to fifteen range. Brentford loses Tony, but Brentford was

1831
01:29:46,720 --> 01:29:49,120
Speaker 3: also like not in that range last year they were

1832
01:29:49,120 --> 01:29:51,360
Speaker 3: eighth or seventh, they lose Tony. Okay, maybe now they're

1833
01:29:52,479 --> 01:29:55,160
Speaker 3: ceiling is lower, but plus one forty to finish above

1834
01:29:55,200 --> 01:29:59,439
Speaker 3: west Ham minus won twenty to finish above Fulham and Wolves. Like,

1835
01:29:59,760 --> 01:30:02,839
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, I'm gonna be betting that again with Brentford matchups.

1836
01:30:03,120 --> 01:30:05,080
Speaker 3: I think those are some great looks and you can

1837
01:30:05,120 --> 01:30:07,280
Speaker 3: also find a bunch of plus money tickets if you're

1838
01:30:07,720 --> 01:30:10,280
Speaker 3: you know, like Bournemouth enough and think that maybe nine

1839
01:30:10,320 --> 01:30:12,200
Speaker 3: to one top half might be a little too far.

1840
01:30:13,040 --> 01:30:14,840
Speaker 3: There are a lot of plus money matchups where you

1841
01:30:14,840 --> 01:30:17,720
Speaker 3: can bet this Bournemouth team. I agree with everything bj

1842
01:30:17,840 --> 01:30:21,000
Speaker 3: said about Ariola from Vacano. I mean they were our

1843
01:30:21,000 --> 01:30:22,880
Speaker 3: favorite team in Spain last year, one of our favorite

1844
01:30:22,920 --> 01:30:26,360
Speaker 3: teams in the last two years. There is a bunch

1845
01:30:26,360 --> 01:30:28,479
Speaker 3: of plus money prices out there on Bournemouth to finish

1846
01:30:28,560 --> 01:30:31,439
Speaker 3: above some of these teams like Fulham Wolves west Ham,

1847
01:30:31,680 --> 01:30:34,640
Speaker 3: who we think have done jack to get better. So

1848
01:30:35,040 --> 01:30:37,040
Speaker 3: that's where I'm looking. I will be playing a bunch

1849
01:30:37,080 --> 01:30:39,479
Speaker 3: of matchups this year because I think that it's just

1850
01:30:39,560 --> 01:30:42,000
Speaker 3: the most fun way to get into it. Last year

1851
01:30:42,120 --> 01:30:45,000
Speaker 3: Arsenal United was plus money and Pallace Wolves was plus money.

1852
01:30:45,040 --> 01:30:47,320
Speaker 3: Now where you know, a little bit juicier on some

1853
01:30:47,439 --> 01:30:49,800
Speaker 3: of these, but Brentford to finish above some of their

1854
01:30:49,840 --> 01:30:53,040
Speaker 3: compatriots is a great bet. I think Arsenal re united

1855
01:30:53,040 --> 01:30:55,680
Speaker 3: as well Brighton and Villa. I think Villa has some

1856
01:30:55,800 --> 01:30:58,320
Speaker 3: regression coming, even though I like what Emery's done.

1857
01:30:59,000 --> 01:31:03,320
Speaker 2: I'll throw a tricat in there as well. City Newcastle

1858
01:31:03,320 --> 01:31:05,479
Speaker 2: Spurs at two hundred to one. Like I said, I

1859
01:31:05,520 --> 01:31:09,720
Speaker 2: think Newcastle just hads like this of these teams, and

1860
01:31:09,800 --> 01:31:13,720
Speaker 2: that top blob is the one outside of City of

1861
01:31:13,760 --> 01:31:17,400
Speaker 2: course that just feels the steadiest. And I really think

1862
01:31:17,560 --> 01:31:21,160
Speaker 2: Tottenham Anthony's this, This could be Tottenham's year. This is

1863
01:31:22,280 --> 01:31:25,000
Speaker 2: this is the league is set up for a team

1864
01:31:25,120 --> 01:31:29,439
Speaker 2: like them to not or to too gate crash. So

1865
01:31:30,920 --> 01:31:33,840
Speaker 2: give me the Spurs, give me Anthony Spurs to have

1866
01:31:33,920 --> 01:31:36,599
Speaker 2: a big year. So that tricast City, Newcastle and Spurs

1867
01:31:36,640 --> 01:31:40,639
Speaker 2: at two hundred and one. I mentioned that that relegation

1868
01:31:40,800 --> 01:31:46,679
Speaker 2: one and should we bet Mudric most assists at fifty

1869
01:31:46,720 --> 01:31:46,960
Speaker 2: to one?

1870
01:31:47,680 --> 01:31:51,040
Speaker 3: No no, no, no, no, no no no, that's not

1871
01:31:51,120 --> 01:31:53,160
Speaker 3: good enough. Also, there's just so many better players.

1872
01:31:53,520 --> 01:31:55,960
Speaker 2: They're hard, but they're just not They just don't have

1873
01:31:56,040 --> 01:31:57,639
Speaker 2: the hair, they didn't have the hype.

1874
01:31:59,000 --> 01:32:01,320
Speaker 1: He's gonna be very interesting player to see how he

1875
01:32:01,400 --> 01:32:03,960
Speaker 1: fits within, you know Chelsea, like it does he actually

1876
01:32:04,000 --> 01:32:06,040
Speaker 1: peak at the left wing role, like is you know

1877
01:32:06,200 --> 01:32:08,840
Speaker 1: Nicholas Jackson gonna peak like there's a lot of I

1878
01:32:08,920 --> 01:32:12,160
Speaker 1: think there's way more question marks with Chelsea than the

1879
01:32:12,240 --> 01:32:14,800
Speaker 1: mark is. And then people are making out to be right.

1880
01:32:14,800 --> 01:32:14,880
Speaker 2: Now.

1881
01:32:14,960 --> 01:32:17,960
Speaker 1: Question marks can be good saying it, but they can

1882
01:32:18,040 --> 01:32:19,880
Speaker 1: also cause you to completely.

1883
01:32:20,200 --> 01:32:21,080
Speaker 3: It could also be bad.

1884
01:32:21,400 --> 01:32:23,800
Speaker 1: It can also be really bad, like maybe only having

1885
01:32:23,880 --> 01:32:25,679
Speaker 1: one midfielder might be a bad spread.

1886
01:32:26,160 --> 01:32:28,040
Speaker 3: They do need another one of those, Mauricio. But you know,

1887
01:32:28,720 --> 01:32:30,400
Speaker 3: is magic as far as I'm concerned.

1888
01:32:30,560 --> 01:32:32,960
Speaker 1: But what happens, because here's the thing with Chelsea, what

1889
01:32:33,160 --> 01:32:37,040
Speaker 1: happens if Enzo Fernandez gets hurt? They have literally nothing

1890
01:32:37,240 --> 01:32:39,599
Speaker 1: else to play in the middle of the pitch, which

1891
01:32:39,640 --> 01:32:43,040
Speaker 1: is the most important place to be on a soccer field.

1892
01:32:44,600 --> 01:32:45,720
Speaker 3: It's more important these days.

1893
01:32:45,760 --> 01:32:50,800
Speaker 2: But Undy conversation, you guys can have that conversation in

1894
01:32:51,080 --> 01:32:54,240
Speaker 2: your text messages. What we try to wrap this thing up?

1895
01:32:54,880 --> 01:32:55,000
Speaker 1: Uh?

1896
01:32:55,720 --> 01:33:00,360
Speaker 2: Once again? Well, uh, we'll be back. Well money Over

1897
01:33:00,400 --> 01:33:03,800
Speaker 2: the next few days, Women's World Cup point total draft,

1898
01:33:04,560 --> 01:33:06,160
Speaker 2: go through the other leagues in Europe, and then of

1899
01:33:06,240 --> 01:33:10,320
Speaker 2: course looking at match day one in the Premier League

1900
01:33:11,040 --> 01:33:15,200
Speaker 2: starts on August eleventh with City and Burnley. We'll have

1901
01:33:15,360 --> 01:33:20,240
Speaker 2: our normal you know, match by match breakdowns, favorite bets, underdog,

1902
01:33:20,320 --> 01:33:23,320
Speaker 2: parlay the whole kit and Kaboodle is back, Wonder goal

1903
01:33:23,439 --> 01:33:27,160
Speaker 2: is back, Anthony is back, BJ's back. Betting betting on

1904
01:33:27,360 --> 01:33:31,400
Speaker 2: Arsenal to win the league at basically what could go wrong?

1905
01:33:31,479 --> 01:33:37,600
Speaker 2: Minus one? Yeah, it's this disastrous number so thank you

1906
01:33:37,720 --> 01:33:39,920
Speaker 2: for listening, Thank you for sticking with us this entire

1907
01:33:40,800 --> 01:33:44,360
Speaker 2: marathon episode. Thank you to our producers and our video folks.

1908
01:33:44,800 --> 01:33:48,360
Speaker 2: I'm Michael Leaboff. That's Anthony Dubundo, BJ Cunningham. This has

1909
01:33:48,400 --> 01:33:50,880
Speaker 2: been wonder Goal presented to you by BET three six five.

1910
01:33:58,160 --> 01:34:02,680
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1911
01:34:02,720 --> 01:34:05,519
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1912
01:34:05,520 --> 01:34:08,599
Speaker 3: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler