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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I can't emphasize enough, folks, when we learned this decades

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Speaker 2: ago with Bloomberg on the economy, you make your luck.

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Speaker 2: Paul and I are committed to getting voices. We don't

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Speaker 2: know when we need them. Right now, we get lucky.

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Speaker 2: We have Mona Mahajen with us with Everard Jones. She

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Speaker 2: has the most prestigious finance computer degree in America. Good morning,

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Speaker 2: Palo Alto. This is out of Wharton's School, the double

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Speaker 2: degree Finance and computer science. As mister Zuckerberg blows up,

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Speaker 2: Hey I Mona, We're going to rip up the script

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Speaker 2: here with you, and don't give me you can do it.

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Speaker 2: I know that. What do you tell Edward Jones producers

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Speaker 2: and clients about the plan of AI? Is there a

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Speaker 2: path or are we making it up as we go

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Speaker 2: in America?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Thanks Tom, and look, AI we think is here

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Speaker 3: to stay. There is certainly a roadmap ahead of us

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Speaker 3: that looks in our view pretty robust. And in fact,

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Speaker 3: we're in year three of the AI we think cycle

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Speaker 3: or supercycle, and in fact chat GBT was launched almost

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Speaker 3: three years ago this month, and so as we look forward,

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Speaker 3: you know, what we tell our clients is, look, we've

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Speaker 3: had three years of tech and AI outperforming the rest

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Speaker 3: of the market, and twenty twenty five was no exception.

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Speaker 3: As we look into twenty twenty six and beyond, yes,

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Speaker 3: we want to own parts of the tech and AI market,

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Speaker 3: but we want to make sure that we have diversification

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Speaker 3: in our portfolios. Because YESTERDAI starts with infrastructure players, hyperscalers,

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Speaker 3: data centers, but hopefully over time it goes to those

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Speaker 3: actors that benefit from the productivity gains, and that's where

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Speaker 3: we'll see some of the market games as well.

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Speaker 2: With a geography, the history, the character of Edward Jones

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Speaker 2: is America through the filter of Edward Jones buying the

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Speaker 2: AI story.

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Speaker 3: You know, certainly as we look across industries and sectors,

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Speaker 3: we are starting to see AI adoption ramp up. So

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Speaker 3: we are continuing to feel like this is a story

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Speaker 3: that is here to stay, and we liken it to

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Speaker 3: what we saw back in the late nineties with the

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Speaker 3: Internet and dot com revolution. Now we would say probably,

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Speaker 3: and I heard Dan Ives on your station talk about

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Speaker 3: it, it's a ninety five era. We'd probably say we're a

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Speaker 3: little bit further along, maybe ninety six ninety seven. But nonetheless,

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Speaker 3: we think that this is a technological innovation that will

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Speaker 3: have impact on all sectors and all industries and the

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Speaker 3: job market by the.

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Speaker 4: Way, as well, Mona, we've had some really really good

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Speaker 4: earnings growth coming out of Corporate America this year. The

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Speaker 4: third quarter numbers are really strong. In particular, Is the

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Speaker 4: earnings growth story good enough to support this market going

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Speaker 4: forward in twenty six, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: It's a great call out look s and P. Five hundred.

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Speaker 3: Returns are typically driven by two things, one earnings growth,

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Speaker 3: two valuation expansion, and so as we look out in

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Speaker 3: the year head the scope for valuation expansion in our

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Speaker 3: view isn't as strong, especially in those parts of market

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Speaker 3: that have already experienced tremendous kind of valuation gains, and

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Speaker 3: most of those are in the growth and tech parts

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Speaker 3: of market. There are parts of the market that probably

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Speaker 3: will benefit as a FED continues to cut rates to

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Speaker 3: see valuation expansion. But the main leg of the stool

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Speaker 3: that we're leaning on for gains going forward is earnings

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Speaker 3: growth toierpoint, And in fact, we're ending twenty twenty five

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Speaker 3: with a pretty strong almost ten percent earnings growth picture,

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Speaker 3: and we're looking at twenty twenty six and seeing another

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Speaker 3: potential double digit for S ANDP earnings growth. So not

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Speaker 3: a bad backdrop in from that perspective from a market

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Speaker 3: gains outlook.

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Speaker 4: So Mona talk to us about that. We're going to

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Speaker 4: hear from the Fed next Wednesday, when Bloomberg will have

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Speaker 4: full coverage of that. Of course, how important is the

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Speaker 4: rate cutting cycle to stocks in twenty twenty six. I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure what's been baked in and what hasn't been Yeah,

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Speaker 4: you know.

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Speaker 3: We think that markets are pricing in a FED that

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Speaker 3: is going to take the Fed funds rate to a

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Speaker 3: neutral level, and we think that's a reasonable base case.

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Speaker 3: You know, at four percent or so, we're still relatively

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Speaker 3: restrictive if you think inflation ends up in this two

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Speaker 3: and a half to three percent range or maybe over

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Speaker 3: time two two.

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Speaker 5: And a half.

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Speaker 3: Historically, the Fed likes to bring rates about one hundred

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Speaker 3: bases points above inflation. So anywhere in this three and

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Speaker 3: a half percent range we think makes sense for a

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Speaker 3: terminal FED funds rate. And we do think, you know,

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Speaker 3: as a FED lowers rates the economic impact usually we

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Speaker 3: see it with a lag, so three to six months

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Speaker 3: later you can start seeing consumer demand pick up. Of

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Speaker 3: course corporate and consumer borrow start to pick up as well,

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Speaker 3: and so we do think parts of the market that

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Speaker 3: are more economically sensitive cyclically sensitive, you have the scope

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Speaker 3: to play some catch up.

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Speaker 2: Here Mona, thank you, thank you, thank you for coming on.

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Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Neil Sharon joins us here from the University of York

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Speaker 2: and of course London as well. He's a capital economics

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Speaker 2: what's the signal headline at the top of your outlook

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Speaker 2: for next year? Given the upside down world of Stormer

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Speaker 2: in the United Kingdom.

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Speaker 7: Well, the UKs is kind of cold, wet island that

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Speaker 7: doesn't really work for the global economy. I have to say,

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Speaker 7: I think the Bank of England's going to cut more

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Speaker 7: markets are pricing in. That's the big call for next

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Speaker 7: year for the UK. I think the big issue globally

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Speaker 7: is whether the US can continue to outperform develop markets,

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Speaker 7: and I think the answer is it probably will. Yes.

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Speaker 4: Is it the AI story which has been such a

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Speaker 4: theme over the last two or three years, and I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure if it feels worn out, but there's definitely

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Speaker 4: a little bit more cross winds cross current headwinds for

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Speaker 4: the AI story.

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Speaker 7: I think that's right. I think there is a bit

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Speaker 7: more kind of caution, I would say, and you pick

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Speaker 7: that up when you go and speak to clients. There's

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Speaker 7: certainly more caution. But my view is it's got a

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Speaker 7: lot further to run. Whether it's got a lot further

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Speaker 7: to run in markets or whether there's some air inflating

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Speaker 7: in the markets, I think is another question. But in

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Speaker 7: the real equity, I think this is a generational technology.

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Speaker 7: It should be regarded as a general purpose technology. It

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Speaker 7: will transform productivity growth over the long run, and the

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Speaker 7: US is at the anger.

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Speaker 2: You've very publicly written about this. It's in your note

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Speaker 2: for the for twenty twenty six as well. There is

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Speaker 2: a reality of a sharp disinflation, if not price decline

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Speaker 2: in China. How is the deflation exported to the West.

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Speaker 7: Well, profoundly so. If you look at Chinese export prices

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Speaker 7: since twenty twenty two, they've fallen by about the twenty percent.

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Speaker 7: Export prices from the rest of the world have been

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Speaker 7: broadly flat over that period, down twenty percent in China.

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Speaker 7: And this is a manifestation of the over investment that's

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Speaker 7: going on in China. It used to go into the

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Speaker 7: property sector, obviously properties now and it's back. It's now

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Speaker 7: going into the manufacturing sector, and manufacturer is a cutting

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Speaker 7: price to shift volume, and it's flooding global markets. And

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Speaker 7: the US is obviously pushed back the tariffs. The rest

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Speaker 7: of the world has not really decided what it's going

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Speaker 7: to do about it.

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Speaker 2: In your history of central banks, is that enough of

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Speaker 2: a tertiary or secondary idea that the FED can justify

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Speaker 2: multiple rate cuts?

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Speaker 7: I don't think so, not in and of itself. No,

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Speaker 7: it will perhaps zero point one point two percent off

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Speaker 7: of headline inflation in advances. Yeah, it's not. It's not

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Speaker 7: a big deal.

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Speaker 2: We've got that CFA, it's teen swots, don't.

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Speaker 4: Worry about it.

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Speaker 2: Don't worry about it.

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Speaker 4: So it's China and net positive negative for this economy

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Speaker 4: here going forward here, I'm just not sure where are

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Speaker 4: we selling them stuff? Are they giving us supply coming

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Speaker 4: out of the China.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think we're definitely through the phase where the

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Speaker 7: rest of the world had decided that globalization was an

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Speaker 7: unalloyed good thing, right, that we should embrace it, and

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Speaker 7: I think we're much more cognizant of the downside. Yes,

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Speaker 7: we get to consumes.

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Speaker 4: I'm still a globalization guy.

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Speaker 7: I don't know, but I think that the thing that

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Speaker 7: has changed, and they don't teach this in economics, and

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Speaker 7: they should do, is the intersection between economics and national security.

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Speaker 7: The point that is the issue that has people in

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Speaker 7: the US are waking up to and people in Europe

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Speaker 7: are just starting to wake up.

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Speaker 2: So the modern military industrial complex is that enough of

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Speaker 2: a fiscal oomph to make nominal GDP in any given country,

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Speaker 2: including the US, better than good.

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Speaker 7: It's probably in the case of the US, Yes, it's

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Speaker 7: providing quite a lot of support to demand in the US.

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Speaker 7: If you look at the share of government spending taken

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Speaker 7: up by the military. See, the big question is will

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Speaker 7: it all this transformed growth prospects in Europe? And we've

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Speaker 7: seen a big fiscal expansion or planned expansion and fysical

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Speaker 7: expansion in Germany.

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Speaker 2: It's right, what does ye expect?

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Speaker 7: It's not going top it's not going to make a

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Speaker 7: big difference. So we've raised our growth forecast for next

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Speaker 7: year from zero point five percent. You're on your growth

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Speaker 7: in Germany and GDP to one percent. So it's barely moving.

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Speaker 2: It's unbelievable.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, it's growth all right. Central banks. It

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Speaker 4: seems like central banks around the globe are cutting raising

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Speaker 4: with the exception of the Bank of Japan.

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Speaker 7: How impactful z.

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Speaker 4: F for twenty twenty six global growth?

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Speaker 7: Well, the key question here is that you've got to

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Speaker 7: look at what central banks will do with policy versus

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Speaker 7: what's priced into the market. Okay, and my bet is

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Speaker 7: that the market has got a bit too carried away

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Speaker 7: with the idea of federates next year. US economy is

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Speaker 7: holding up reasonably well. Yes, employment is slowing, but productivity

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Speaker 7: growth is accelerating. Inflation is still probably a bit too

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Speaker 7: high for comfort. You've got a fiscal deficit of six

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Speaker 7: percent of GDP. So my bad is that the Fed

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Speaker 7: does not cut by the four that the four twenty

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Speaker 7: five BIFs that are comedy priced into markets. In contrast,

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Speaker 7: I don't think the market's quite taking seriously that the

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Speaker 7: prospect we might get lower rates, particularly in the UK,

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Speaker 7: but also in the Euros next year.

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Speaker 2: I did an event yesterday. I'll talk about it later, folks,

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Speaker 2: David Kotok and Kathleen stuffs and global interdependence. McKee was there, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: the conversation with low brainer mckey's for the heavyweight. I know,

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Speaker 2: I know, and I'm sitting there and up comes Catherine Man.

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Speaker 2: I get a big Catheryne manor hug. That's where they

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Speaker 2: racket id yep. And it reminded me of the wonderful

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Speaker 2: descent of the Bank of England. Neil, you're one of

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Speaker 2: the greatest transatlantic people I know. Do you embrace that

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Speaker 2: the FED should enjoy the descent of Catherine Man in

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Speaker 2: the Bank of England?

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Speaker 7: Absolutely?

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 7: I think that what we've we've perhaps suffered from with

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Speaker 7: monetary policy and in the fiscal policy over the past

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Speaker 7: decade or so is perhaps kind of groups group think.

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Speaker 7: So I think the ex that you get some descent

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Speaker 7: within within policymakers. That's a good thing. It should life

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Speaker 7: in the debate, it should shaft in policymakers' minds. It

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Speaker 7: should lead to better policy outcomes.

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Speaker 2: From where you sit from a distance, the uproar over

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Speaker 2: Kevin Hasset right now, if you look at if you

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Speaker 2: look at the debate, can the presidents and the governors

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Speaker 2: push against any given new chairman?

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Speaker 7: Well, I think this is an existential question hanging over

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Speaker 7: markets in twenty twenty six. In theory, one voice in

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Speaker 7: twelve that votes, one voice in nineteen on the committee.

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Speaker 7: The question is that how dominant does that voice become?

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Speaker 7: How and to what extent can it shift attitudes on

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Speaker 7: the committee. My sense is that Hasset might end up

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Speaker 7: being a bit more orthodox than some people expect. It

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Speaker 7: looks to me from a distance like an old school Republican,

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Speaker 7: perhaps talking a good game to get the nomination. But

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Speaker 7: let's see, how was.

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Speaker 4: He ecuonomy over in London? What's it like in London

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Speaker 4: these days? How are folks feeling over there?

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Speaker 7: Well, londoner comes to New York. Expensive in New York.

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Speaker 7: I'll tell you that thirteen bucks for a sandwich from

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Speaker 7: pred It's not that it's not that expensive in London.

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Speaker 7: The UK economy is in a place where it's not

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Speaker 7: you know, it doesn't feel terrible, but it's not great either.

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Speaker 4: We're looking at the norm though for England.

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Speaker 7: I mean it's northern Europe I think, I think particularly

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Speaker 7: compared to if you look at the growth performance of

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Speaker 7: the US economy versus not just the UK, but Europe

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Speaker 7: more generally concerned into Europe, it's night and day over

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Speaker 7: the past decade. You plot pot a child of GDP

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Speaker 7: and look at the register it's opened up.

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Speaker 2: Lisa, can you take the other sweet greens for like

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Speaker 2: a pre launch for it's like a scandal here it is,

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Speaker 2: there's no cop it's just like what it's like the

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Speaker 2: green stuff? Yeah, twenty bucks.

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Speaker 7: But there's an interesting point here where everyone is obsessed

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Speaker 7: with the kind of affordability and cost of living and

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Speaker 7: politicians are saying, well, inflation is coming down, and the

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Speaker 7: point is it's not that inflation's going out. The price

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Speaker 7: level is still.

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Speaker 2: That's Stephen Roach just wrote a brilliant substeck on this

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Speaker 2: overt eale Youni versu thank you for we're going to

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Speaker 2: do more on that first level as it come on down. Okay,

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Speaker 2: are you are you moving to New York?

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Speaker 7: I wish I was callorforda evil hosterday.

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Speaker 2: I loved that, miss sir and Capital Economics. Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for Darkning. The dory is from Always London.

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Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty We go ever stronger.

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Speaker 2: In this eight o'clock hour, Heidi Crabo reticker with his

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Speaker 2: senior fellow of g Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Heidi,

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Speaker 2: I don't even know where to begin other than is

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Speaker 2: a complete amateur. Paul, Let's talk to mister Putin. Yeah shocked,

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Speaker 2: nothing got done? No, Heidi, did we expect any other outcome? So?

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Speaker 8: I think, you know it's it's exactly as you said.

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Speaker 8: This is really you know, a question over the team

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Speaker 8: that's been sent in particularly you know Witkoff and believing

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Speaker 8: Putin and falling you know, again and again for you know,

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Speaker 8: the dangled promises of investment, while it's clear that Putin

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Speaker 8: is playing for time and and helping for a fracture

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Speaker 8: in NATO, because this from the beginning has not just

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Speaker 8: been about Ukraine. It's been about fracturing NATO, which is

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Speaker 8: a much bigger picture item for Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 4: To what extent should President Trump get involved here? I mean,

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Speaker 4: mister Whittaker, mister Rubio meeting with Putin, that just doesn't

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Speaker 4: feel like that's a recipe for really moving the ball

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Speaker 4: forward here.

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Speaker 8: Well, you have, I mean, you have sort of a

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Speaker 8: divided approach to within the Trump sphere with witkof Vance

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Speaker 8: and Jared Kushner on one side. You've got Rubio trying

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Speaker 8: to play Kate into a certain extent and steer the

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Speaker 8: ship back on in negotiations to a better place. And

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Speaker 8: I think at the end of the day, Trump wants

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Speaker 8: to be he has this cork constraint that he does

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Speaker 8: not want a visible Ukrainian defeat on his watch. He

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Speaker 8: wants a Nobel Priest prize. So I think in terms

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Speaker 8: of his getting involved, you know, he wants concessions from Ukraine,

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Speaker 8: but he doesn't want to preside over a collapse.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Heidi, you know it's just us. It's like forty

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Speaker 2: two people listening coast to coast and worldwide as well. Heidi,

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Speaker 2: What would Colin Powell do? What would Robert Gates do?

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Speaker 2: What would Secretary Rice do? Or selected other Democratic State

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Speaker 2: Department diplomacy people. Would they go over there and hope

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Speaker 2: for something so that any given president can win a

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Speaker 2: prize like price Patrol.

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Speaker 7: I expect.

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Speaker 8: We're looking you know, you know, we're looking at a

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Speaker 8: very different approach to foreign policy and particularly visa v Russia.

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Speaker 8: We knew that coming in, you know, when Trump came

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Speaker 8: into office, that that that that he was looking for

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Speaker 8: a very different relationship with Vladimir Putin. I think, you know,

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Speaker 8: looking at way's traditional, you know, strong Republicans and Democrats

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Speaker 8: would deal would deal with this would probably be to

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Speaker 8: make sure that Ukraine, first of all, was in the room.

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Speaker 8: You know, Ukraine and the Europeans have really been completely

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Speaker 8: sidelined in this. It's been a you know, a you know,

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Speaker 8: a strong a strong man. Trump and Putin divided, you know,

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Speaker 8: dividing Europe play right now. And I think, you know,

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Speaker 8: Zelensky has it right. It's there could be a moment

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Speaker 8: for an opportunity to end the war, and there is

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Speaker 8: a lot of diplomatic activity going on. But we have

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Speaker 8: we have not put pressure on Russia. I mean, the

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Speaker 8: Europeans are putting pressure on Russia, but the United States

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Speaker 8: is really not. We haven't we haven't been as aggressive

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Speaker 8: with sanctions.

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Speaker 2: We haven't.

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Speaker 8: You know, we haven't really backed our allies in supporting Ukraine.

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Speaker 8: And certainly if the US, the US is putting certain

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Speaker 8: pressure on for example, India for buying for continuing to

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Speaker 8: buy Russian Russian oil, but it really isn't putting the

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Speaker 8: it isn't really putting the thumb on the pressure on

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Speaker 8: Vladimir Putin. And I just don't think absent that you're

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Speaker 8: going to see any movement.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so we're seeing no movement. I think Paul and

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Speaker 2: I are asking the same question where we say in.

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Speaker 8: February, well in February, I mean coming up on the

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Speaker 8: on the anniversary of this.

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Speaker 2: I mean, does Lenski run out? I mean serious stuff.

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Speaker 2: Does the Leznsky run out of money? Does he go

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Speaker 2: out and sink six more oil? Tankers out in the

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Speaker 2: Black Sea or orherever? Is it a drone war? I mean,

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Speaker 2: where are we in this? I think all of us listening, Heidi,

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Speaker 2: with your wonderful work at the consul and Foreign Relations.

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Speaker 2: The bottom line is we're benumbed by this, Lisa. How

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Speaker 2: long has it been? Three years?

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Speaker 6: The wars?

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Speaker 2: Three years? Four years?

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Speaker 7: Three years?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Heidi, it's you know, it's yeah in America,

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Speaker 2: wars four years, that's it. Yeah, you know, that's what

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Speaker 2: was a problem with Vietnam. Heidi. Where are we which?

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Speaker 2: Which ghost are we fighting? In February? We're just going

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Speaker 2: to have Ukraine run out of money? Is one talking point.

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Speaker 8: So you know, I do think there are more people

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Speaker 8: in the United States and certainly in Europe paying attention

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Speaker 8: to this because you know, for Europe this is pretty existential.

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Speaker 8: But there is this ticking time bomb in the back,

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Speaker 8: in the background, which is where's money going to come

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Speaker 8: from to pay for not only the military, you know,

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Speaker 8: the acquisition of arms and the arming of Ukraine, but

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Speaker 8: also just for reconstruction, for paying pensions. And the IMF

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Speaker 8: was just there and they reached an agreement on a

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Speaker 8: new a new facility for eight point one billion dollars

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Speaker 8: and that's smaller than I think.

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Speaker 4: You know, Ukraine was hoping for.

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Speaker 8: And they've tagged the financing gap for the next three

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Speaker 8: years at one hundred and thirty six and a half

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Speaker 8: billion dollars.

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Speaker 4: That is huge.

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Speaker 8: Just in you know, twenty six twenty seven, they're looking

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Speaker 8: at sixty three billion of a financing gap, which means

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Speaker 8: the Europeans, since the US is not going to be there,

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Speaker 8: the Europeans really need to step up. They either have

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Speaker 8: to pay it out of their budgets or they have

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Speaker 8: to look to this reparation loan that's been under negotiation

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Speaker 8: for a very long time.

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Speaker 2: Do you've got to continue this conversation. Just bring in

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Speaker 2: Heidi about Retika. She's with the console on foreign relations.

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Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming.

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Speaker 2: Up after this.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

391
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,880
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty the newspaper.

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Speaker 2: So I mean they're lighting the tree tonight. Are you

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Speaker 2: going to the tree lighting?

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Speaker 4: Lisa, No, it's a madhouse.

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Speaker 7: It's a mad house.

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Speaker 2: Tree is almost as big. I don't know if you

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Speaker 2: know this. The tree is almost as big as scarlet foods.

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Speaker 2: Is a blackyard now here. It's it's ginormous.

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Speaker 4: Tree is great this year, it looks well, it looks

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Speaker 4: great every year.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it does.

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Speaker 5: I've done it though, I've done to go and I'm

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Speaker 5: trying to push to people. That's when you were picture,

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Speaker 5: we're TV. We're working, yes, exactly doing ice.

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Speaker 2: Skated there and the family paid me not to. Oh

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Speaker 2: what do you got today?

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Speaker 5: Okay, this is a look into It's interesting when on

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Speaker 5: the terminally you have to check it out. How more

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Speaker 5: tired Americans they're spending more for products that are going

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Speaker 5: to save them time on tedious tasks. For example, laundry. Okay, now,

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Speaker 5: my kids have been doing laundry since they were ten,

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Speaker 5: which means a lot of different people doing laundry all

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Speaker 5: at once, which means there's fights over who forgot to

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Speaker 5: move it from the washer to the dryer. Then you

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Speaker 5: have to redo it in the wash because it starts

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Speaker 5: to smell. Okay, so enter this two thousand dollars washer

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Speaker 5: slash dryer combo all in one unit that will do

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Speaker 5: it in under two hours in one unit.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so more.

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Speaker 5: People are buying those blue reggas, saying Gee, sold like

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Speaker 5: ten times as many as those as they expected. Samsung

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Speaker 5: has one too, So it's more about the products that

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Speaker 5: people are buying to save them time, Like there's a

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Speaker 5: seventeen hundred dollars oven that can make restaurant quality pizza

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Speaker 5: and two minutes. So things like that, and how people

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Speaker 5: are paying more for services, like, for example, they have

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Speaker 5: Walmart Walmart Plus. They can come and they put the

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Speaker 5: groceries away for you, you know, in the refrigerators.

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Speaker 4: So I used to have people doing stuff for me.

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Speaker 4: I don't have people doing stuff for me anymore.

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Speaker 2: No, I don't.

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Speaker 4: I don't have people anymore.

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Speaker 5: So would you pay more to save time?

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Speaker 2: Absolutely?

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Speaker 4: Yes, Absolutely, that's.

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Speaker 6: That's the thing.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

440
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 5: I think I would, And I'm el Chipo, so I

441
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 5: would do that if it saves me time. Okay, this

442
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 5: one is for you, Paul. It's about skiing, Okay, So

443
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 5: I know this is big for you. So when you

444
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 5: look for like alpine glamour, what do you think do

445
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,959
Speaker 5: you think Swiss apps? Okay, that's what do you think, right,

446
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 5: Sat Maritz. It's like this very fancy, fancy place, twenty

447
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 5: seven hundred dollars a night you could pay. But the

448
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 5: Wall Street Journal is saying travelers are travel experts are saying.

449
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 4: Go to Idaho. Okay, it's Sun Valley.

450
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 6: Have you been there?

451
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 4: Awesome?

452
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 7: It is awesome.

453
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 4: It's not as big as some of the other Western

454
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 4: rest resorts like Vail, but it is just awesome skiing.

455
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 4: The people are great, the facilities are great. I love

456
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 4: some and I went in the summertime. I went there

457
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 4: for the Allen and Company conference, which is beautiful.

458
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 7: Well did you see there?

459
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 4: No, no, but I see a lot of medium mogules.

460
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 4: We got some good interviews out there. So but the

461
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 4: skiing out there is awesome, you know. And now they

462
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 4: have direct flights from the New York area into whatever

463
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 4: they do.

464
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 3: Or whatever.

465
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 5: So it's not as fans as it kind of laid

466
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 5: back like glamorous, Yes exactly.

467
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 4: It is not aspen. It is not Veil, but it

468
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 4: is very I think, very high end, very very nice.

469
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: I like it.

470
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 4: I'm a big big fan there. That being said, we're

471
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 4: going to add the boys are going to Aspen this year.

472
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 4: Oh you are the boys trip. Okay, maybe you should

473
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 4: change it. Well, we did that, We're gonna We're gonna

474
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 4: do that maybe next year.

475
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 5: All right, all right, okay, this one's story. Last story

476
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 5: is interesting. Michael Barr actually just touched upon this an

477
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 5: interesting trend. Just a month after Zoramondani was elected as

478
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 5: New York City's mayor, so sales of Manhattan luxury homes

479
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 5: actually jumped.

480
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 4: This is according to Miller.

481
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 5: Samuel Douglas Eleman buyer signed contracts one hundred and seventy

482
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 5: six homes worth four million dollars or more in November.

483
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 5: That's up twenty five percent from the deals that were

484
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 5: in't the month before.

485
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 2: It's got to be Wall Street.

486
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 1: This is what it is.

487
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 4: I've been in most uses, working in this town for

488
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 4: forty years. It's never changed. If you're anywhere in the

489
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 4: world and you want to park money safely, you buy

490
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 4: Manhattan real estate and that's you're any part of the world.

491
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 4: You don't have to worry about the government come and

492
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 4: taking your money or doing anything. You just just go

493
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 4: buy a co op in the city and you know,

494
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 4: come back ten ten years later it'll be higher value

495
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 4: and then that's what's happening.

496
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 5: I think, Yeah, there's condos that what is it, the

497
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 5: seventy four in the Upper east Side, Billionaire's Row, like

498
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 5: those were some of the big, the big purchases out there.

499
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 2: Yep.

500
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 4: So realtors are saying there is no ever, so many

501
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 4: of you can't keep Manhattan down.

502
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: Ever, yeah, ever, I don't disagree. And right now that's

503
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 2: going to be a whole new search. Yep. With all

504
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 2: of the good tidings on Wall Street, least'm gonna tay

505
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 2: you to thank you so much the newspapers.

506
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:55,600
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507
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,480
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508
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509
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,280
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510
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511
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