1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,119 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, our next guest 7 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: is all in the state of Kentucky. We've got an 8 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: undergraduate degree from the University of Kentucky, Wildcats NBA, from 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: the University of Louisville, the Cardinals. I don't know who 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: he roots for during hoops season. Ross Mayfield Investment Strategy 11 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: annals for Bared Wealth Management, Ross Louisville Place, Kentucky. Who 12 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: do you root for? It's Kentucky, highest times out of Kentucky, 13 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 1: high times out of that's strong. That's a strong. Yeah, 14 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,639 Speaker 1: they get some strong support there, dude. UK. I met 15 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: Rick Pettino when I was a kid looking at UK. 16 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: Really yeah, how'd that go? It was awesome? I Mean 17 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: I wasn't Ohio State fan obviously, but love Kentucky. Love 18 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: going down to Lexington and uh yeah, hey, Ross, what 19 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: do you make of this thirty year bond, it's two 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 1: point seven nine percent. I thought we were just at 21 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: like three point three three point four. What's going on 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: in the bottom market. What's that telling us? Uh? Growth 23 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: scare right, It's telling us that the market is finally 24 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,639 Speaker 1: convinced that the set is I'm going to do whatever 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 1: it takes. And increasingly that looks like, you know, some 26 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: sort of recession, whether it's mild or not is up 27 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 1: for debate, but I think there's you know that you 28 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: talk talk about copper, talk about treasure, you olds, talk 29 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: about other industrial medals, all of them are reflecting, um 30 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: increased odds of a of a recession and of a 31 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: big growth turned down. So I think that's that's what 32 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 1: it is. And at the same time, you know, increasing 33 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: odds that because of that, we can kind of you know, 34 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: defeat this inflation. Uh, you know, within the next twelve 35 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: months or so. I was looking. We've been talking about 36 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: the Michael Burry tweet. I don't know if you saw 37 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: it UM yesterday, but he said basically, the first half 38 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: was awful. SMP down, NASAC down thirty five, bit coming 39 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: down six says that was at least in terms of 40 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: stocks multiple compression. Next up is earnings compression, so he says, 41 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: maybe we're halfway there. Not to be fair, he calls 42 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: himself Cassandra, he's a little bit dramatic about this kind 43 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:20,359 Speaker 1: of thing, But, um, how much do you think earnings 44 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: will be hit? Well, you don't get movies made about 45 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: you if you're not a little bit dramatic. I guess 46 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: you know, I think earnings will take a hit, right, 47 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: So currently I think I think the estimate for SMP 48 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: earnings it's still something like two fifty, which is which 49 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: is ish growth. Um at a minimum, if you're looking 50 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: at even a minor re session economics light down, that 51 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: probably has to be flat or slightly down. You know, 52 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: the average recession earnings contractions is like plus on the 53 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 1: on the downside usually or on average. So you know, 54 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: even if you saw something like five, you know, kind 55 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 1: of earnings contracts in the the next year, um, that 56 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: would be meaningful. Versus where estimates are now, you're starting 57 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: to see kind of one by one. Uh. You know, 58 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: companies come out with guidance that's a little bit lower, 59 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: a little bit more hesitant. But I think as we 60 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: get into this this next earning season, you'll start to 61 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: see it um kind of in mass, and the question 62 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: would just be is it is downside or is downside? 63 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: What are they seeing in real time as far as 64 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: the consumer goes as far as investment goes um, because 65 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: I think that's the big question. Right. Consumers held up 66 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: pretty well, but there's there's a lot of pressure, right. 67 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 1: I mean, Lisa Shaalott from Morgan Stanley was saying, you 68 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: know what, this kind of inflation driven recession isn't going 69 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: to be as bad as the kind of credit driven 70 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: recession that we had in two thousand and eight, and 71 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: that was a profit decline of fifty seven percent, So 72 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: she says, we're not likely to see anything that bad. 73 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: But I just wonder if stocks can get hit as 74 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: hard we're down, can we really fall fifty percent by 75 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: the end of this thing. I think a lot of 76 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: the pain is priced in. I think there's I think 77 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: earnings pain is already priced into stocks now. Estimates still 78 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: have to come down, but you know, I think the 79 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: market is sniffing that out ahead of time. Yeah, I 80 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: think there could be a further leg down, but I 81 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 1: would be surprised if they were that big of a 82 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: sell off for the reason that you mentioned it's, you know, 83 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: there's nothing seemingly systemic that's wrong. Um. You know, big 84 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: valuation compression obviously, and inflation is hitting you know, the 85 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: consumer and companies in all sorts of ways. But um, 86 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: we're still in a pretty decent position as far as profitability, 87 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: as far as earnings. You know, profit margins are rolling over, 88 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: but they're still elevated. The consumer is strained, but you 89 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: still have that a couple of trillion, and aggregate savings UM, 90 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: wage growth is still there. The job market is still 91 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: white hot. So one of the things we've been talking 92 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 1: about is, you know, recessions don't always look like the 93 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:55,840 Speaker 1: last two. They don't always look like oh eight in 94 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: the coronavirus crash where GDP falls off a cliff, things 95 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: are catast d optick. There's a history of much more 96 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: kind of mild recessions UM, and I think that's probably 97 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: what we're headed for. Given worth the starting point, Ross, 98 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: what's the question you're getting most often from your bared 99 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 1: wealth management clients you know at this point, And I 100 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: think it's reflective of the past few selloffs and bear 101 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: markets have really been v shaped in nature, and this 102 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 1: one is much more grinding. Already a couple of headsake 103 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: bear market alleyes. So the biggest question is when does this, 104 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: When does this end? Where's the bottom? And you know, 105 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: obviously that's a borderline impossible question to answer. But given 106 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: that there's still probably some some earnings pay to come, 107 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 1: given that we haven't really seen the kind of capitulation 108 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: that you'd want to see out of stocks, you know, 109 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: at the top um mentioning that the VIX is still 110 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: sub thirty. You know, when the markets in a bear 111 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: market is pretty wild. Um, you just haven't seen that capitulations. 112 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: They want to know where the bottom is. But the 113 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: reality is that bear markets outside of the kind of 114 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: q E era are are much longer. You know, it's 115 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 1: twelve eighteen month processes. And so that's what we're getting 116 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: folks accustomed with is kind of setting that expectation that 117 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 1: this could be a longer slog um, you know, much 118 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: like maybe dot Com but the the past. All right, Ross, 119 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 1: good stuff, Appreciate you're taking the time here. On a 120 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: Friday before July four, Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst for 121 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 1: BARED Wealth Management, be A, University of Kentucky, NBA from Louisville. 122 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 1: That's a good basketball rivalry down there. Have you ever 123 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 1: been to Kentucky? I have great bowling Green. I'm a 124 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: big fan of Bowling Green Kentucky. Now you bring in 125 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: Katie and I have no idea what's going on with 126 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 1: her story here? Well, here's the d I mean, she's 127 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: in her student Katie Greifeld Cross reporters in our studio. 128 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: By the way, story Cross asset reporter. Uh. I don't 129 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: even think it does her justice. She is an absolute 130 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: expert at the world of E t F s. She 131 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: also knows what she's talking about when comes to crypto. 132 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: She's got like seventy five thousand followers on Twitter, and 133 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: she's just generally a markets news hound. Okay, Now, I 134 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: told my boss is listening. Even dummies like me and 135 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: Paul know that it has been a bad time for bonds. 136 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: I mean, we've never seen anything like this. Investors that 137 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: normally thought, oh, this is where I go for safety 138 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: are now thinking where in the hell can I go? Right? 139 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: And what you're saying is a lot of them have 140 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: chosen E t F s. A lot of them have 141 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: chosen E t F So this is something that always happens. 142 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: You have sort of this moment in markets, and E 143 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: t F issuers rushed to capture it. So the current 144 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: shiny object among E t F issuers right now is 145 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: income E t F. So the strategies vary a little bit, 146 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: but in all of them, at least the most recent filings, 147 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: it seems to be that either of these funds invest 148 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: in equities that offer dividends, or they write some sort 149 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: of call writing strategy on the s. Give us some tickers. 150 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 1: We like tickers here, okay, so, and also we love this. 151 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 1: To me, it's a great story because it brings together 152 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: two of my favorite functions we love on this show. 153 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: I n GO shows you all the indexes and it's 154 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: a great search tool, and we love E t F GO. 155 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: We do love I know, honestly, it's probably the best, 156 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: my favorite function at Bloomberg. But in any case, in 157 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: just the past few weeks, you've had three of these 158 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: funds launched U d I T U g N N 159 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: J p r E. But there's one that really taught 160 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 1: U g N is a good one. Growth in income 161 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: E t F tickers are fun. But the fund that 162 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: caught my it actually launched in the last two years. 163 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: It's the JP Morgan Equity Premium Income e t F. 164 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: The reason that I came across this fund, Matt, was 165 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: because we talked to Brian Lake of JP Morgan on 166 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: the E t F Show this week and we were 167 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: talking about income funds super hot. So I decided to 168 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: try and put some numbers to that. This JP Morgan 169 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: Equity Premium jp J e p I. It is one 170 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: of the biggest income funds out there. It's seen inflows 171 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: of over five billion dollars this year for relatively new 172 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,079 Speaker 1: fund that doesn't really happen all too often, and it's 173 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 1: in the top ten of equity e t F and 174 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,319 Speaker 1: flows so far this year. Well, income funds seem like 175 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: they should be sustainable. Like I think about the e 176 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: t F world, your e t F world, Eric about 177 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: tunis et F world. It's very niche. You know, whatever 178 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: is the spright shiny object, Let's create an e t 179 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 1: F for that. But income funds are universal, it seems 180 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, And so a lot of this is 181 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: sort of repackaging the idea, trying to make you know, 182 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 1: just following dividends seem exciting. Well, it's but here's the 183 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:41,679 Speaker 1: key and Jack Bogel might himself love this. In order 184 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: to stay on top of um an income stocks portfolio, 185 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: you occasionally have to trade in and out right. That 186 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: costs money. A mutual fund would maybe give you a 187 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 1: little bit less of a cost, but you're still paying 188 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 1: the manager. With an e t F, you get the 189 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: cost down even further, so you're able to have this 190 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 1: uh bonds like return without having to pay the equity 191 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: trading fees is left the pitch. That's the pitch. So 192 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: if you look at Jeff for example, it's an actively 193 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: traded e t F charges just thirty five basis points. 194 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: That's pretty cheap. But to your point that these are 195 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: offering bond like returns, that's sort of the angle that 196 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 1: I drilled into into this piece because it sounds really 197 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 1: good that you get income without sort of the drama 198 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:29,719 Speaker 1: that's going on in the bond market right now. But 199 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: I was talking to um ben Levine. He's over at 200 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 1: three D Asset Management Group. He was actually also on 201 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: the et F show, but I had COVID for that episode. 202 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: But in any case, he made the point that these 203 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: are sort of equity beta in income clothing. These are 204 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 1: not the bonds sort of portfolio diversification, sort of layers 205 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: of your portfolio. Basically, you shouldn't be using this as 206 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: a substitute for fixed income. And the worry, at least 207 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: for him and some of the other people I talked to, 208 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 1: was that investors will basically, so this is the to 209 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 1: be sure paragraph. This is the actually made the whole article, 210 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: the to be sure because again this is the shiny 211 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:10,319 Speaker 1: object of the moment. You see a lot of issuers 212 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: chasing this. This is a typical be in construction. They'll 213 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: have the first, you know, four paragraphs of the story 214 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:21,559 Speaker 1: investors are switching into urn rather than bonds. And then 215 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: in the second, after the after the page, it'll say 216 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: to be sure, and then they give you the which 217 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: is really like secrets, that is that is it's important 218 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,439 Speaker 1: though to introduce a little bit of skepticism. Of course, 219 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: these are the high flyers right now, which really speaks 220 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: to the mood of the market, that just dividend funds 221 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 1: are the high flyers right now. But again, these aren't bonds, 222 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,439 Speaker 1: and if you're looking to diversify your portfolio, I mean, 223 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,319 Speaker 1: maybe you should still keep bonds in it. You want 224 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: to be safe. And by the way, I know a 225 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: crypto fund that will pay you like, oh, tell me 226 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: about that? Kidding it crash okay, alright, so all right, 227 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 1: so talk to us like e t F fund flows. 228 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: Given this first half of the year, where you know, 229 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: the s andps down twenty plus percent, bonds are down 230 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: double digits, how have the e t F flow has been? 231 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: What have you seen in terms of trends? So it's 232 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: brutal out there. We're actually just talking about it on 233 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: the ten am show on BTV. Basically, if you look 234 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: at where the money went in the first half, Spy 235 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: that is the state street spider sputf in the world. 236 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: We all know it, the O G B O G. 237 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: But it's relatively expensive. It costs ten basis points, whereas 238 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: if you look at Vanguards answer to spy voo v 239 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: o o uh, it costs three basis points. So Spy 240 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 1: loss about twenty three basis points. It's a great question. Well, 241 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: Vanguard is special. They have their mutual ownership model. They 242 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: don't really need to make money. Okay, bo actually manages 243 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: it from heaven. That's how that's how they do it. Yeah, 244 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: but in any case, you saw maybe twenty six billion 245 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: dollars come out of Spy um and about that much 246 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 1: going into do right exactly, So perhaps people exiting the 247 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: market and then trying to come back in, we're going 248 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: into the cheaper products. So the Vanguard products did pretty 249 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: well this first half again because they cost absolutely nothing. 250 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: But I mean you saw outflows from broader SMP five 251 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 1: hundred tracking funds that weren't Vanguard, from high yield funds, 252 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 1: from financials, basically everything. This is actually I'm just using 253 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: that e t F go function, Matt, and I just 254 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: saw something that actually is pretty cool. You know, the 255 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 1: year to date cash outflows of spy twenty five point 256 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: five billion and then inflows into Voot four billions. That's there. 257 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 1: You just, yeah, I could see it with you weren't 258 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: lying there. What I what I wanted to actually ask 259 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: Brian Lake last week and what I want to actually 260 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: this week? Oh it was this week. That's it. It 261 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: was just Monday. Uh. And this is something that maybe 262 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: we can talk about on our E t F show 263 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: Wednesday at one pm. Um. Is it a good thing 264 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: to have these two, this duopoly in E t F 265 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 1: because it's like black Rock and Vanguard are pretty much it. Yeah, 266 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: State Street used to be the solid number three, but 267 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: they've been sort of straggling in recent years. I can't 268 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: answer that question. We should ask the next work on 269 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: it with the big Wednesday. Yeah, next week, all right, 270 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: Katie Grayfeld, crossset reporter Bloomberg. Well, I'm almos gonna say 271 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg quick take. Maybe we have to rewrite that. Eric, 272 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: let's switch gears. Talk about travel. It's gonna be a 273 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: big travel weekend this weekend. I'm just driving down to 274 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: the Jersey Shore. No other place I'd rather be, but 275 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 1: a lot of people are hopping on planes and trains 276 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: and automobiles and stuff like that. It's check in with 277 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: Alicia Kapoor, senior industry manager at similar Web. Alicia, how 278 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: busy is it gonna be out there? What's this summer 279 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: going to be like? Given some of the travel challenges 280 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: that are out there? You know, this weekend is really 281 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: really busy, and I'm seeing that in person. I'm actually 282 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: talking to you from Poland, Um, where I'm here for 283 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: a wedding and a lot of Yeah, Poland UM, I'm 284 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: in I'm not going to pronounce it right, but it's 285 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: called um. So I'm here for a wedding and a 286 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: lot of guests are delayed, and we are seeing just 287 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 1: in terms of search volume, that consumers are seeing a 288 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 1: lot of cancelations, especially for flights, and search volume for 289 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: airline cancelations rose between thirty four and six over the 290 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: past twenty eight days, with most searches going to American airlines. 291 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: And we're actually seeing that American Airlines has the highest 292 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: share of traffic to its cancelation pages online UM and 293 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: they've really had a high share of traffic to those 294 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: cancelation pages since about May, and most airlines are seeing 295 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: increased traffic. I think it's really just staffing issues are 296 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: getting in the way. People weren't expecting this resurgence and 297 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: demand and a lot of people are trying to travel now, 298 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: um maybe before we get into an environment where prices 299 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: are even more UM volatile, right. I think there's a 300 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: lot of price sensitivity that's coming into the picture right now. 301 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: So they're worried about they're worried about coming inflation. Yeah, 302 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: I think people are worried about coming inflation. I was 303 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: actually talking to a client yesterday that said they're seeing 304 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: really high bookings for next summer because people are trying 305 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 1: to pay with payment plans or kind of put off 306 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: the pricing because they can't afford this summer. So, you know, 307 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: you're in EUROPEO. We've heard some stories that just some 308 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: strikes and it's you know, as bad as this travel 309 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: is here, it's even worse than Europe. What are you seeing? Yeah, 310 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: it's a great question. I was actually in London before 311 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: this there was a tube strike. It was a little 312 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: bit stressful. But we are seeing that bookings in Europe 313 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: for top brands are declining into June UM with only 314 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: booking dot Com actually seeing an increase in daily lodging 315 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: bookings month over months since May. And that picture is 316 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: really different in the US. UM the U S we're 317 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: seeing that all brands are seeing an increase in bookings. 318 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: So I think you're right. Europe is seeing more struggles 319 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,959 Speaker 1: than the United States, and unfortunately it is impacting bookings 320 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 1: across the board. All right, Alicia, thanks so much. We 321 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 1: appreciate that, especially coming from Poland. Enjoy the wedding over 322 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: the careful of the Russians. Yeah, be careful right there, 323 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 1: they're right there, But NATO is right there. I gotta 324 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: tell you something. I moved to London about twenty years ago, 325 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 1: and I lived there for a few years, some of 326 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: the greatest years of my life. Sure, because it's a 327 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: great town and because I was young. But um, there's 328 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: literally always a tube strike. Yes, it's a constant thing. 329 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 1: It's not now or last year, is not COVID or 330 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: pre pandemic. It's a constant, always a tube strike. And 331 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: I feel the same thing with like air France or 332 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 1: you know, are you know air it Tally or something 333 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: like exactly all right, that's Alicia, senior industry manager for 334 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 1: a similar web bringing. Uh. I think it's fair to 335 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: say a friend of the show. You've interviewed Mark Douglas, 336 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: president CEO of Mountain a number of times. Mountain is 337 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: a company that builds advertising software for brands. They have 338 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: something to do with the guy from Deadpool and UM, Mark, 339 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,119 Speaker 1: I was reading your on your blog. There is a 340 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: story about UM. I think Melissa Yapp wrote a story 341 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 1: about UM. The fact that you can recession proof your 342 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: streaming business by offering ads. We know that, UM, We've 343 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 1: already seen that from Hulu and now we're expecting to 344 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: see it from Netflix. Uh does it not drive away? 345 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: Do do consumers not care about ads. Um, I think 346 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: consumers have demonstrated that they are willing to basically exchange 347 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: viewing of ads for a lower price. And so if 348 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 1: you look at Hulu, who you mentioned as an example, 349 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 1: I mean it's only cluss I think two dollars to 350 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: avoid advertising on Hulu and to take greater on that, 351 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 1: meaning the number of people who elect that option is actually, 352 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 1: you know, less than half of the consumers. I think 353 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: it is as low as like about. So I think 354 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 1: consumers have said, you know that that's a really good 355 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 1: trade off. But then you know, you want to add 356 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: to the entertaining, which is what you know Ryan is 357 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: all about as part of mountains. So that's that's that's 358 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: an important part of it too. So Mark, I mean 359 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: I'm looking at some of these media names and where 360 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: the stocks are just getting crushed along with everything else. Here. 361 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: One of the challenges, I guess Mark, is kind of 362 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 1: how is this whole streaming business gonna shake out? I 363 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: mean even our friends and Netflix stocks down six on 364 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: a trailing twelve month basis. What's the how how do 365 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 1: you think investors are thinking about just the streaming business? 366 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: Is it a good business? Um? I think it's an 367 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: next on business, and you know, the thing that's interesting 368 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: right now is it's really started to stabilize. Obviously, Netflix 369 00:19:55,840 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 1: and Hulu kind of pioneered streaming itself, and then you 370 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: saw this kind of steady set of companies enter the business, 371 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 1: and that created uncertainty in terms of market share. Who's 372 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 1: gonna you know, what services are different consumers gonna sign 373 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 1: up for. At this point, especially in the US, every 374 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 1: service that you're going to have available to you is 375 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: essentially out there. Disney Plus, Decock, Netflix, They're all out there, 376 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: and I think there's a bit of uncertainty to see 377 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: where consumers wind up in terms of what are the 378 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 1: services that they have in their core diet of viewing, 379 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: and so that uncertainty is affecting stocks. Netflix has kind 380 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 1: of in some ways a good problem to have, but 381 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: obviously when it comes to stock prices, no problem is great, 382 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,880 Speaker 1: which is they have so many consumers I think over 383 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 1: seventy market share that it's just hard for them to 384 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: grow that business in the US, and I think the 385 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,160 Speaker 1: stock has been penalized probably more than it should be 386 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: for that, you know, for that kind of a problem, 387 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:02,880 Speaker 1: which is like everyone's already using our survey The interesting 388 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: thing to me, Mark is that you what your business. 389 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: For example of you're you have a B two B piece, right, 390 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: and and you're trying to help your companies generate more 391 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: leads get more demand by placing their ads in the 392 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 1: right places. So you are equally as interested in finding 393 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: out which services are doing the best to connect with 394 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: customers as an investor is um to find out which 395 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 1: one is the best bet for the for the future, 396 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: for sustainability. Right, So what are you seeing as the 397 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: big standout winners here for for your customers? Well, the 398 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: in terms of in terms well really, let's back up 399 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: just like that. The way to look at this is 400 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: that the television advertising market is on to monetize. It 401 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: has more users than social more people watch television that 402 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 1: even than use social um by by small amount. It 403 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: has three times the engagement people spend three hours a 404 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: day or more watching TV. But somehow it has less 405 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: revenue than a social media market. Then social advertising does. 406 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 1: So that's an opportunity, right, Well, this because television been 407 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 1: dominated by you know, just like five thousand big advertisers, 408 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:17,399 Speaker 1: while someone like Meta has millions of advertisers. So what 409 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 1: MOUND does is we're bringing television to every size company, 410 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,159 Speaker 1: and then by doing that, we're literally expanding the market 411 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 1: for television advertising. And I think if you are an 412 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: investor looking at streaming, looking at TV, that's what you 413 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 1: should be focused on. This market can expand we can 414 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,719 Speaker 1: bring more advertising market with more hours of engagement and 415 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 1: literally expanding market for television advertising. And so Mound is 416 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 1: contributing to that. And I think the future for these 417 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 1: media companies and these media stocks are bright as they 418 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 1: embrace that that streaming we can now bring all all 419 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: these new companies into that market. All right, Mark, good 420 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,160 Speaker 1: good stuff. As always appreciate you taking the time here 421 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 1: on this Friday before your life fourth long weekend. Mark Douglas, 422 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: President and CEO of Mountain, Thanks for listening to the 423 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 424 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 425 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller, p on 426 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 427 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio