Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: to these markets here. I mean a lot of folks.
Speaker 1: Tell me, Matt, if you want to try to call
Speaker 1: the bottom, look for capitulation. That means when everybody just
Speaker 1: kind of throws it in town. I'm looking at it.
Speaker 1: You know, the volume today, the dal Jones above normal,
Speaker 1: SP above normal. I don't know. That's kind of feels
Speaker 1: like a lot of people are just kind of thrown
Speaker 1: into town. But let's talk to our professional here, Mike
Speaker 1: vogals On, Chief Investment Officer Managing director at cap Trust. Uh, Mike,
Speaker 1: are we at or near the bottom? If we are,
Speaker 1: what data points do you look at to give you
Speaker 1: some confidence about that call? Yeah, we've been wrestling with
Speaker 1: that question a lot, guys. I mean, it's it's a
Speaker 1: you know, clearly, what we're seeing is just continued obviously
Speaker 1: de risking in the in the I think particularly the
Speaker 1: hedge fund community. Um. You know that the hedge fund
Speaker 1: returns have been all over the place this year, and
Speaker 1: along short guys are are really struggling. A couple of
Speaker 1: a couple of winners, but most of them are really
Speaker 1: in trouble. And so I think I'm trying to de
Speaker 1: risk sort of at any price. And you see that
Speaker 1: in some of the activity today, Um, that that's certainly
Speaker 1: a phase that the market has to go through. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, I think one of the things that's interesting
Speaker 1: is this this uh sort of the sort of the
Speaker 1: orderliness with which we've seen this this meltdown. Now right,
Speaker 1: we're down fifteen percent or something like that from the
Speaker 1: peak on December or January three in the SMP. And
Speaker 1: you know, it's not been crazy. We haven't hit anywhere
Speaker 1: near forty on the VIX. We're even today we're a
Speaker 1: three four. Um, you know, it's it's it's we kind
Speaker 1: of looked for it's. You could look at it in
Speaker 1: the numbers. But there's also a visceral reaction of just
Speaker 1: like get me out at any price, right, And I
Speaker 1: think you're starting to see that at some of the
Speaker 1: most beaten down names, some of the really speculative innovation
Speaker 1: kind of names that that that have really you know,
Speaker 1: they're down already. UM, So there's probably pockets of it,
Speaker 1: but you know, I don't I don't think overall there's
Speaker 1: a there's a ton of fear here. I'm worried that
Speaker 1: as interest rates continue to climb, as you pointed out,
Speaker 1: you know, we're over three ten, we're up three fifteen.
Speaker 1: This war hand and tame year, My goodness, I don't
Speaker 1: I don't know where it stops. The Feds have the
Speaker 1: fence has really even haven't even started yet. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: I wonder when that's going to get priced in though
Speaker 1: they haven't even started yet, but we already expect you know,
Speaker 1: half back to back, half basis point cuts. Some people
Speaker 1: were saying seventy five and seventy five as well. Um,
Speaker 1: is there a point when that gets priced in and
Speaker 1: you know, all of the concerns you had about inflation
Speaker 1: and fighting inflation, um, and the economy slowing down are
Speaker 1: all priced in and we can get out. I think
Speaker 1: I think you've got to look for a direction, right,
Speaker 1: You've got to look for the directional change and and
Speaker 1: right now inflation has only been getting worse. Um And
Speaker 1: and at some stage we need to see a consistent
Speaker 1: pattern of you know, lower employment cost index or we
Speaker 1: are slower slower growth, same thing with inflation. We need
Speaker 1: to see uh COVID lockdowns in China beginning to ease,
Speaker 1: so we have some sense that the that the that
Speaker 1: the you know, the logistics supply problems are are beginning
Speaker 1: to free up. You know this. Right now, it seems
Speaker 1: like everything is continuing to go in the wrong direction.
Speaker 1: And until we get some fundamental change at the margins,
Speaker 1: it's just hard to see why anybody would want to
Speaker 1: step in front of it because there's no there's no
Speaker 1: way to to know um. You know. Look, and every
Speaker 1: time we talk about something like this, it really comes
Speaker 1: down to your time frame. And if if your time
Speaker 1: frame is relatively short, um, I think you're going to
Speaker 1: stay out of the way of this thing. I think
Speaker 1: if you're a long term investor and you have some
Speaker 1: dry powder, I think you have to begin to think
Speaker 1: about nibbling at the at the margins here. Just because
Speaker 1: there are some things that are pretty inexpensive. It's pretty easy,
Speaker 1: for example, to buy a large cap value portfolio with
Speaker 1: the price to earnings ratio pretty close to single digits now,
Speaker 1: maybe ten or eleven twelve times earnings UM with a
Speaker 1: pretty healthy dividend. Okay, that's pretty interesting right over the
Speaker 1: next five or ten years. UM. So, you know, I
Speaker 1: think the pockets of a sort of long term allocation
Speaker 1: that can happen if you're if you're in the right
Speaker 1: spot and you're sort of smart enough to know that
Speaker 1: it's sort enought to see some of this coming, um
Speaker 1: and so, but you know, I just don't think we're
Speaker 1: there yet on a on a momentum kind of basis.
Speaker 1: There's no way yet. Hey, Mike, thanks so much for
Speaker 1: joining us here. Always appreciate getting your thoughts from here
Speaker 1: on in these markets. Mike phobos On. He's a chief
Speaker 1: investment officer and managing director at Cap Trust. All Right, Matt,
Speaker 1: I filled up the beamer this weekend four one per gallon.
Speaker 1: I wanted to blame somebody, so I just obviously just
Speaker 1: looked at OPEC because I'm looking at the oil here,
Speaker 1: Brent crude on eight dollars a barrel. But I forgot
Speaker 1: about the whole refining process and taking that crude oil
Speaker 1: into gas or dies or whatever else we need to consume.
Speaker 1: There's a whole refinery process out there, and don't you
Speaker 1: know haveavier Blast Calumnus for Bloomberg Opinion comes out with
Speaker 1: a fantastic column today looking at that part of the
Speaker 1: energy stream. The mark of the refinery business. How your
Speaker 1: those guys are making a lot of money right now?
Speaker 1: Aren't they making quarter lot of money right now? Record
Speaker 1: margins for American refiners currently about fifty dollars per barrel
Speaker 1: of refining margin. This is a bit of a back
Speaker 1: of the envelope calculation. Each refinery is different, so you
Speaker 1: cannot really have like a benchmark for the whole industry,
Speaker 1: but we have a of the envelope calculation that in
Speaker 1: the industry we called the three to one refinery margin,
Speaker 1: and that is the record high up. In simple terms,
Speaker 1: a refinery usually makes something between ten and twenty dollars,
Speaker 1: but barrely, they're making about fifty five right now, so
Speaker 1: it's as good as it gets for them. And uh,
Speaker 1: you know, people pay attention to normal gas every you know,
Speaker 1: consumer focused cable TV news channel. Uh, we're looking at
Speaker 1: Paul and I have a huge bank of screens here.
Speaker 1: They're all focused on the price at the pump and
Speaker 1: talking about regular unleaded, but diesel is almost seven dollars
Speaker 1: a barrel where I live. What is going on with that? Well,
Speaker 1: that is the market that is the tightest of all
Speaker 1: of them. There is very little diesel going around. And
Speaker 1: this is a this is something that really mattered. You're right,
Speaker 1: most of consumers, myself included, we we we really look
Speaker 1: at cattle in prices because that's what we we we
Speaker 1: we need for our car. But the global economy, the
Speaker 1: American economy, really run on diesel. That is the fuel
Speaker 1: for tracks, that is the fuel for heavy machinery things
Speaker 1: about all of those machines and diggers on construction sites,
Speaker 1: and it's also the fuel for for farming. And supplies
Speaker 1: are well above pre pandemic levels because in far all
Speaker 1: of us, myself included, are buying all these stuff online
Speaker 1: and that all needs to be transported in tracks and
Speaker 1: bands and their fuel on on diesel. The supply has
Speaker 1: not really come back, and lots of refineries with trouble
Speaker 1: coming back from from pandemic and the combination of both
Speaker 1: has sent inventories to very low levels, and particularly the
Speaker 1: East Coast, the Eastern seaboard of the United States, lowest
Speaker 1: inventories in thirty two years for diesel, and that's why
Speaker 1: you see retail prices going to record levels. And UH
Speaker 1: diesel prices have never been so high compared to gasolin
Speaker 1: prices in the United States. And and just ongoing comfort
Speaker 1: and scoll from one of the independent American refinance hs
Speaker 1: Sinclair where the CFO used to me gave the quote
Speaker 1: of the day or the month of what's going on
Speaker 1: on the on the diesel market, and morgenally all the
Speaker 1: kind of retail fuel market in the US. He said,
Speaker 1: pre pandemic demand and post pandemic supply. That's that's the problem.
Speaker 1: Demand is back to what it was before the pandemic,
Speaker 1: but the supply has not come back. One of the
Speaker 1: other things that we've noticed, Javier, just on an anecdotal level,
Speaker 1: is it's harder and harder to get cheap tickets on
Speaker 1: an airline. Okay, in Europe, um, it's a different story,
Speaker 1: but here a lot of people are getting priced out
Speaker 1: of the market to fly, even in luggage class. Jet
Speaker 1: Fuel is another one of those markets that's super tight, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: jet fuel is also very tight. I think that generally
Speaker 1: what has happened was that the industry has been a
Speaker 1: bit surprised by the return of trouble by by air,
Speaker 1: not only in the US but also in Europe. Refinance,
Speaker 1: we're not making enough jet fuel now. The prices are there,
Speaker 1: so get fuel is selling in New York hardword that
Speaker 1: the benchmark for the US East coat at the equivalent
Speaker 1: to about two and fifty dollars per barrel, so very
Speaker 1: very high prices that the highest ever. And refiners are
Speaker 1: something that we are trying to make more get fuel.
Speaker 1: But if they make more get fuel at the expense
Speaker 1: of making maybe a bit less decent or maybe a
Speaker 1: less a bit of less catoline, we really are getting
Speaker 1: quite a lot of strong demand for all of them.
Speaker 1: And and and you are right, consumers are starting to
Speaker 1: get price out on airth travel just because it's getting expensive.
Speaker 1: But I was in America only ten days ago UM
Speaker 1: flying into New York. Both my flying and my flyout
Speaker 1: were completely booked UM every class, first class, business, Premium, Economy,
Speaker 1: and Economy. All of the seats were occupied. And that
Speaker 1: is kind of a sense of how Weston the demand is.
Speaker 1: After two years of not traveling around, people are still
Speaker 1: putting with high prices because they want to They want
Speaker 1: to see relatives, they want to see colleagues, they want
Speaker 1: to see business contacts. Have your How hard or difficult
Speaker 1: is it for refineries to increase capacity? They have to restart,
Speaker 1: refineries have to build new ones. How does that look
Speaker 1: on the spade. It's very difficult because once you you
Speaker 1: shut down a refinery, that's not going to come back.
Speaker 1: And the trend in Europe and the United States over
Speaker 1: the last few years have been of reducing refining capacity
Speaker 1: because of um well, we thought that peak demand was coming,
Speaker 1: the energy transitions, some of the refineries were actually now
Speaker 1: surrounded by big cities or operating with new environmental regulations
Speaker 1: was getting more difficult. And then pandemic hit and that
Speaker 1: two more charge the trend. So what we saw is,
Speaker 1: excluding the Middle East, on China, we saw the biggest
Speaker 1: amount of refining capacity laws in thirty years over the
Speaker 1: last year and a half two years. Because of the pandemic.
Speaker 1: Those refineries are not going to come back. And China
Speaker 1: has a specifying capacity, but they really control a lot
Speaker 1: of what they are exporting, so you cannot count on them.
Speaker 1: So we unfortunately seem that we have hit the refinery wall,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna we're gonna have to deal with that
Speaker 1: for for for a time, and the only solution is
Speaker 1: to reduce our slow down the demand for fuel, and
Speaker 1: that only comes be are two things that they are
Speaker 1: closely related. Demanded strokes will be a very high prices.
Speaker 1: So just some American Son people just decide that they
Speaker 1: cannot drive because it's very expensive for outright recession and unfortunately,
Speaker 1: probably we're gonna hit both of them by the end
Speaker 1: of the year. By the way, I heard Tom talking
Speaker 1: to Will Kennedy the other day on Bloomberg Radio and
Speaker 1: asked him, you know where would Brent be right now
Speaker 1: in price terms if it weren't for the lockdowns in China,
Speaker 1: if it weren't for COVID zero, And he said, maybe
Speaker 1: more like or even closer to the high. What do
Speaker 1: you think. I think that we will be higher. I
Speaker 1: think that we will be a hundred and fifty. It
Speaker 1: was not because of China shut down. I mean, China
Speaker 1: is all what is stopping this market to really rallying
Speaker 1: on a moneyful way. Um, if China will not shut down,
Speaker 1: we will be higher than that. Uh. Really in some ways,
Speaker 1: as Son speaking in private son government officials both in
Speaker 1: the US and Europe say, and also oil traders, the
Speaker 1: refusal of China to really go with the fives and
Speaker 1: the moderna vaccine. It's all what is preventing this market
Speaker 1: to a hundred and all? Right? Have you ever last
Speaker 1: calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion got a great, great calm today
Speaker 1: talking at the refining aspect of the supply chain within
Speaker 1: global energy. You know, for a lot of folks, medals
Speaker 1: are a say haven or seen as a safe haven
Speaker 1: for investors in uncertain times. I wonder if that's still
Speaker 1: the case given all the uncertainty we have out there,
Speaker 1: whether it's economic, federal reserve, UH, interest rate moves, geopolitical issues.
Speaker 1: It's checking with one Matthew Miller, one of many medals
Speaker 1: and mining analyst at cfr A Research. Matt, can people
Speaker 1: kind of hide out a little bit in metals here? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I mean it is a great question because we've seen
Speaker 1: we've seen precious medals have a safe haven bid earlier
Speaker 1: in the year, but they have they have since sold off,
Speaker 1: and I think that you know, people are preferring the dollar,
Speaker 1: the US dollar as a safe haven of choice right
Speaker 1: now and you know, I think with the strength of dollar,
Speaker 1: we have seen both precious metals and industrial metals sell off,
Speaker 1: and you know, I think that risk off trade is
Speaker 1: really um, you know, a combination of three major factors.
Speaker 1: But you know it fears about inflation and dead number
Speaker 1: one in Russia's war against Ukraine and how that impacting
Speaker 1: the supply side of the equation for industrial medals in particular,
Speaker 1: And then you have China's COVID lockdown, and I think
Speaker 1: that you know, with inflation remaining elevated, we here at
Speaker 1: c fr A do think the industrial medals in particular,
Speaker 1: it is a good place to you know, hedge inflation,
Speaker 1: even though we have seen that weakness recently, we do
Speaker 1: think it's a great place to be currently in terms
Speaker 1: of treasuries. Uh, this morning we're looking at three eighteen.
Speaker 1: I think, let me check to get the exact here
Speaker 1: three spot Well we've come down substantially three spot zero
Speaker 1: one eight and nonetheless it's a much better return than gold.
Speaker 1: Is that a competitor? Yeah, I I absolutely think it is.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think gold tends to do well when
Speaker 1: real rates are declining, and we we threw in the
Speaker 1: talent gold we were bullish for a number of years
Speaker 1: leading up to the end of one, and you know,
Speaker 1: we were too early on that knowing what's happened this year.
Speaker 1: But um, we do think old is gonna struggle to
Speaker 1: reach new highs in this cycle because you you do
Speaker 1: see um, you know, you do see real rates starting
Speaker 1: to creep back up. And so we think that as
Speaker 1: the FED is tightening and real rates start to you know,
Speaker 1: they're now above UM, they're now positive again, and we
Speaker 1: think that gold's gold and precious metals are gonna really
Speaker 1: struggle in this environment. And we do think that that
Speaker 1: is maybe the number one thing over the short intermediate
Speaker 1: term that drives gold prices, that negative correlation with real yields.
Speaker 1: So we do think that that's a major headwind for gold. Hey, Matt,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the nickel a thirty five percent year
Speaker 1: to date. What was slash is the nickel call that
Speaker 1: I so obviously missed well, I mean, nicol is an
Speaker 1: interesting one because um, the spike and nickel really was
Speaker 1: driven by a major um, a major short squeeze, and
Speaker 1: so um, when you look at nickel, it is one
Speaker 1: of the medals that is at risk on the supply side.
Speaker 1: From Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia produces around seven percent
Speaker 1: of the of the global UH supply of nickel, and
Speaker 1: it was already pretty um you know, the the inventory
Speaker 1: levels were already pretty tight. So it was already a
Speaker 1: structurally tight market. And what we saw with um uh
Speaker 1: you know, Russia invading invading Ukraine, you did see a
Speaker 1: major um, a major short seller in China that was
Speaker 1: was literally the big short that that kind of drove
Speaker 1: what's happened with nickel and causing the CME to actually um,
Speaker 1: you know, causing the LMY excuse me to actually um
Speaker 1: halt the exchange a number of times in the last
Speaker 1: couple of months. And so we think that you know,
Speaker 1: there that market is going to be structurally tight, along
Speaker 1: with aluminum and palladium. Um, there's a number of markets
Speaker 1: that rely pretty heavily on that region for for global supply.
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm sure the CMME is very happy
Speaker 1: that that was the l M E and and on them.
Speaker 1: Do you think that's done more than just reputational damage
Speaker 1: to the LEMY, I mean other people who are saying,
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm not trading there anymore. Yeah, Well,
Speaker 1: I do think that they will regain sort of that trust.
Speaker 1: But yeah, it does hurt in the short term because
Speaker 1: you know, there are a number of trades that were
Speaker 1: canceled that the days that these were um you know,
Speaker 1: the days that the halt happened, and and you never
Speaker 1: really want that to happen, and you don't you never
Speaker 1: want to see that type of volatility. But the reality
Speaker 1: is there there are a number of metals markets that
Speaker 1: aren't very liquid that are you know, they will see
Speaker 1: this sort of volatility, and so you know, the exchanges,
Speaker 1: you know, they do want to, you know, kind of
Speaker 1: do do their part to kind of correct the market
Speaker 1: when you do have a major, um, a major trader
Speaker 1: out there where this was this was a lot of speculation,
Speaker 1: but it was also somebody that was going to be
Speaker 1: needing to close those short positions. So um yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean it's there's no easy solutions for them, But I
Speaker 1: do think that um, you know, they're gonna regain trust.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a long term issue in my opinion.
Speaker 1: All Right, Matthew Miller, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: Matthew Miller Metals and Mining Analysis c f R, a
Speaker 1: research well in person investor conferences are back. In fact,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence is hosting its first annual Thematic Investing Conference
Speaker 1: UH May ten and eleven at Bloomberg's Global HQ in
Speaker 1: New York City. The inaugural in person event will focus
Speaker 1: on these key themes plant based foods, digital healthcare, digital commerce,
Speaker 1: digital payments, and cryptocurrency. So all the big topics that
Speaker 1: are front and center. Let's get a little bit of
Speaker 1: a preview. Eric Baltunist, Uh, he covers E t F
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence, and Eric, I know you're deeply involved
Speaker 1: in this conference, so you know, what are Bloomberg clients
Speaker 1: that are attending here? What are they going to see? Um,
Speaker 1: they're gonna see basically a different themes emerging themes. Why
Speaker 1: themes matter? You have throw stand, A lot of the
Speaker 1: investing universe used to be divided or is divided into sectors,
Speaker 1: the gift sectors. But the the world is changing so
Speaker 1: quickly theme ets I think capture that changed a little
Speaker 1: quicker than the sectors. Do you know some of these
Speaker 1: stocks are in multiple sectors at least in their business lines,
Speaker 1: So more and more of the money is going towards
Speaker 1: thematic ETFs and that's why I'm involved because e t
Speaker 1: f s are tend to be sort of at the
Speaker 1: forefront of finding new themes because if you find a
Speaker 1: new theme and it starts to go up a lot,
Speaker 1: you can get some cash. So if you look at
Speaker 1: the sectors, uh if thematic ETFs have the second most
Speaker 1: assets after tech, So we all know tech rules the sectors,
Speaker 1: but themes are number two now above healthcare. So that's
Speaker 1: how this is. These used to be kind of a
Speaker 1: laughing stock like a video game. Et F would come
Speaker 1: out everyday the trash and laugh at it. Now it's
Speaker 1: big business. This stuff is the future of active in
Speaker 1: my opinion, and it's smart of b I to get
Speaker 1: on board. So a lot, a lot a lot of
Speaker 1: times Matt and I away ask a guess, you know,
Speaker 1: what sectors are you looking at? But maybe a better question,
Speaker 1: or certainly a different question be what themes are you
Speaker 1: guys focusing on? Yes, so well they're going to focus
Speaker 1: on everything. You know you talked about blockchain, cryptocurrency, plant
Speaker 1: based themes, the digit digitization of everything is a big one.
Speaker 1: Some that we're looking at this year that are interesting
Speaker 1: are natural resources, right themes time Sometimes people think theme
Speaker 1: are themes are just growth stocks sort of you know, repackaged,
Speaker 1: but there's natural resources which hold oil mining stocks. You've
Speaker 1: also got infrastructure is a theme, and with the infrastructure
Speaker 1: spending that could be big the metaverse, even though that's
Speaker 1: been hit hard, that is a theme people are looking at.
Speaker 1: So those are some of the ones that we're looking
Speaker 1: at on my panel. We also have ARC. We don't
Speaker 1: have Kathy, We have Brett Witten and ARC. To me,
Speaker 1: I think put themes on the map all of Kathy's
Speaker 1: funds or theme ETFs. But the main fund isn't a theme, right,
Speaker 1: It kind of is disruptive innovation. We consider innovation a theme,
Speaker 1: and Kathy kind of kicked off a whole category because
Speaker 1: Kathy goes across sectors to just find innovative and disruptive companies.
Speaker 1: So in a way, that's how we define themes. And
Speaker 1: so it's interesting because I was I was thinking first
Speaker 1: about factors, right, because that became huge, especially in the
Speaker 1: hedge fund world five six, seven years ago. Right, And
Speaker 1: Paul mentioned sectors. Now those are two different things, right.
Speaker 1: A factor and a sector are different ways of categorizing
Speaker 1: investment opportunities. I guess companies or what have you? Um,
Speaker 1: themes can be kind of either one. Yeah, no, you're
Speaker 1: what you're hitting on is so important and interesting and
Speaker 1: what everybody in asset management should understand. Themes are going
Speaker 1: to steal your thunder. They steal from the sectors, which
Speaker 1: are sort of born in this legacy. There's only eleven
Speaker 1: of them, and they're sort of stale, and they steal
Speaker 1: from factors because growth momentum value. Some of these to
Speaker 1: a normal person or an advisor with younger clients, they
Speaker 1: just don't resonate. Whereas some of these themes have a
Speaker 1: narrative attached to them. You can identify them. They get
Speaker 1: your imagination going. And a lot of them also will
Speaker 1: hold stocks that aren't in the broad indexes, so they
Speaker 1: compliment nicely. So I agree with you, Matt, you're kind
Speaker 1: of stealing the thunder from both the factor world and
Speaker 1: the sector world. By the way, Um, Paul, did you
Speaker 1: know that Eric and I have a television show every
Speaker 1: Monday at one pm? Do you really? Yes? So that
Speaker 1: today's Monday and today's Monday, we're almost there focused on
Speaker 1: E T F s and what have we got on
Speaker 1: the program today? Today? We have Dimensional, which is a
Speaker 1: major factor issue where I'm gonna actually hopefully ask dimensional
Speaker 1: what do you think about themes coming in and trying
Speaker 1: to steal some of your business? You know what, I'll
Speaker 1: make sure And then the drill down. We drill down
Speaker 1: into one ticker every week is net Z and this
Speaker 1: is the climate Transition stocks. So these are stocks like
Speaker 1: auto companies and chemical companies and even oil companies that
Speaker 1: uh engine number one fields are driving the transition. But
Speaker 1: it's a thirty stocks and again it's a thematic sort
Speaker 1: of E s G climate play E T F UM
Speaker 1: And that's what we're gonna drill down. So themes will
Speaker 1: be part of the show. They're part of most shows actually, UM,
Speaker 1: and I'm looking forward to it. What are we seeing
Speaker 1: in terms of flows because we've had but I think
Speaker 1: five weeks of losses on the sm P, right, that's
Speaker 1: the worst in over a decade in terms of losing streaks. Um.
Speaker 1: We've even seen a big losing streak for bitcoin. I
Speaker 1: think six weeks in a row of losses on bitcoin,
Speaker 1: the worst since like two thousand fourteen, which was back
Speaker 1: when no one cared about it except for me. Um,
Speaker 1: What are we seeing in terms of flows when I
Speaker 1: pull up E T F go What am I looking at?
Speaker 1: By the way, I remember I was on a segment
Speaker 1: one time with you on bitcoin. Still kick myself for
Speaker 1: not just buying a little I'm like, what was I thinking? You?
Speaker 1: And anyway, So look, generally speaking, the flows are still
Speaker 1: buying H y G, the cues, they are getting bids,
Speaker 1: they've taken in money, the triple leverage cues. I think
Speaker 1: that by the dip crowd is still looking for opportunities.
Speaker 1: That said, if you look across the flows in general,
Speaker 1: what you tend to find is like investors are in
Speaker 1: a dark room searching for a door out, because there's
Speaker 1: not really a rhyme or reason. You'll see gold within
Speaker 1: flows one week out the next, and then financials in
Speaker 1: flows out. So I can tell people just are a
Speaker 1: little lost. Whereas most year there's a general sort of slow,
Speaker 1: hurd ish move towards one or two things, this year
Speaker 1: is just all over the place, like someone trying to
Speaker 1: find something. Eric good stuff. As always, Eric Baltunas making
Speaker 1: the trek into New York for the Bloomberg and Arrector
Speaker 1: Broker studio. He's a senior et f Annals for Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Intelligence and also a proud graduate of the State University
Speaker 1: of New Jersey, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Thanks for listening
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen
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