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Speaker 1: The volume. All right, Well, good to him tonight, you're

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Speaker 1: at the volume.

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Speaker 2: Happy Thursday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having

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Speaker 2: an incredible week.

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Speaker 1: Keep bearing with me.

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Speaker 2: I'm on like day five of this flu from hell

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Speaker 2: that has just completely knocked me on my ass this week.

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Speaker 2: But quick show today, we're hitting on three teams. I

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Speaker 2: want to talk about the Denver Nuggets and their main

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Speaker 2: starting lineup and how successful that has been over this

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Speaker 2: three game stretch, especially but in the big picture and

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Speaker 2: what it means for the Nuggets. I want to zoom

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Speaker 2: in on this recent stretch from Houston, this last couple

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Speaker 2: of months, and some really concerning trends, especially involving their

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Speaker 2: ability to win on the margins. And then at the

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Speaker 2: tail end of the show, the Orlando Magic have won

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Speaker 2: five games in a row and they are eleven and

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Speaker 2: four in their last fifteen. I want to talk a

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Speaker 2: little bit about what's been driving that access. You guys

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Speaker 2: owe the Joe before we get started. To subscribe to

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Speaker 2: the Hoops and I YouTube channels. You don't miss any.

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Speaker 1: More of our videos.

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Speaker 2: Make sure you like this video and sign up for

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Speaker 2: post notifications. That helps us a lot. And then last,

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Speaker 2: but not least if you want to get mailbag questions

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Speaker 2: into our mail bag. We're probably not gonna have a

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Speaker 2: mail bag this week because I want to do our

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Speaker 2: second to last contender rankings for tomorrow, so that'll be

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Speaker 2: coming out Friday morning. But if you want to get

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Speaker 2: a mailbag question into our next Friday mail bag, drop

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Speaker 2: them in the comments under the video and we'll get

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Speaker 2: to them on Fridays the rest of the way.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So Rockets s. Nuggets.

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Speaker 2: The Rockets hung around in that first half is relatively

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Speaker 2: low scoring. Denver started to pull away a little bit

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Speaker 2: in the late second quarter, but Houston got a couple

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Speaker 2: easy ones around the basket to cut it to six.

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Speaker 2: But the Denver starters just absolutely blitzed the Rocket starters

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Speaker 2: to start that third quarter. They built up a twenty

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Speaker 2: point lead pretty quickly. The league got as high as

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Speaker 2: thirty nine, and Denver just cruised through to the finish

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Speaker 2: line from there. The Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon,

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Speaker 2: am Johnson, Christian Brown looks so this like starting five

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Speaker 2: that everyone envisioned at the start of the year when

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Speaker 2: they traded Michael Porter Junior, where you have everybody in

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Speaker 2: like natural positions. Instead of having two fours, you have

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Speaker 2: like a very classic one, a classic two, a classic three,

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Speaker 2: a classic four, in a classic five. Everyone wanted to

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Speaker 2: see what that lineup looked like, and they were very

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Speaker 2: good to start the year, but then the devastating line

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Speaker 2: of injuries just made it really difficult for that group

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Speaker 2: to see the floor together. In this three game span

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Speaker 2: again against the Knicks, the Thunder and the Rockets, and

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Speaker 2: obviously you have a Jamal Murray ankle injury in there

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Speaker 2: in the next game that knocked him out for the

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Speaker 2: rest of that game. But in that three games, that

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Speaker 2: group of five guys has played twenty seven minutes and

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Speaker 2: they are winning those possessions at a rate of sixty

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Speaker 2: one points per one hundred possessions plus sixty one net

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Speaker 2: in that twenty seven minute span against two second tier

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Speaker 2: contenders and the Knicks and the Rockets and my number

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Speaker 2: one championship contender of the Oklahoma City Thunder, albeit they

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Speaker 2: were down some, but then also with how well Jalen

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Speaker 2: Williams played, that's more or less a very very good punch,

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Speaker 2: one of the best punches that you can get from

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Speaker 2: that Thunder team, right, so very good set of teams,

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Speaker 2: and that lineup performed well even if you parsed out

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Speaker 2: among the games. In five minutes against the Knicks, they

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Speaker 2: were plus seven on the scoreboard, in eight minutes against

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Speaker 2: the Thunder they were plus eleven, and in fourteen minutes

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Speaker 2: against the Rockets they were plus seventeen. So a very

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Speaker 2: impressive stretch of play from that starting starting unit against

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Speaker 2: some very good teams at the top of the Western

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Speaker 2: Conference and then obviously an Eastern Conference contender.

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Speaker 1: For the season.

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Speaker 2: Now that team, that lineup has played one hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty seven minutes, they have a one to twenty four

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Speaker 2: offensive rating that's outstanding, a one toho five defensive rating

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Speaker 2: that's very very good, plus nineteen points per one hundred possessions,

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Speaker 2: and cleaning the glass who filters out garbage time actually

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Speaker 2: has them at plus twenty one net in three hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty possessions. So, first of all, yo kich we

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Speaker 2: talked last week about how in his first few weeks

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Speaker 2: back from the knee injury he was way off on

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Speaker 2: all of his like bits of shot making from various spots.

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Speaker 1: On the floor.

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Speaker 2: Yokicch is back in a good groove with his shot making,

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Speaker 2: and it's not just the threes, but the mid rangers,

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Speaker 2: the floaters, in the hooks, basically all of the touch

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Speaker 2: shots that were making him so unstoppable. He was off

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Speaker 2: on the for a while there when he got back

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Speaker 2: from his knee injury. Not a big shot, he was

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Speaker 2: working his way back into shape. He's working his way

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Speaker 2: back into rhythm. But in Yo Kic's last five games,

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Speaker 2: he's eighty two percent at the rim, sixty four percent

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Speaker 2: on non rim paint twos, so those are your floaters

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Speaker 2: and hooks, and then seventy eight percent from the mid range.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of positive regression there from Yokicch as

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Speaker 2: he started to get his.

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Speaker 1: Legs underneath them.

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Speaker 2: I'm still little worried about his three point shot, but

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Speaker 2: things are starting to come around overall, and that little

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Speaker 2: shooting burst at the end of the Oklahoma City game

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Speaker 2: was definitely encouraging. I wish he'd stop turning the ball

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Speaker 2: over so much. That's another thing he needs to clean up.

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Speaker 2: Yo Kicch just definitely far from the overall, like best

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Speaker 2: player in the world type of level that we know

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Speaker 2: he was at before he got hurt, and that he's

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Speaker 2: capable of getting to, but there's just a lot of

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Speaker 2: positive trends in terms of him getting back to that

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Speaker 2: type of player. Jamal Murray's been in a great roof.

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Speaker 2: He's struggled a little bit against Oklahoma City again, that's

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Speaker 2: just a few days after busting his ankle, so not

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Speaker 2: too surprised that it's a tough matchup coming back from

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Speaker 2: an ankle injury. But overall, in Jamal's last seven games,

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Speaker 2: he's everything twenty nine points per game on forty nine

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Speaker 2: percent from the field and fifty percent from three. I

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Speaker 2: know Aaron Gordon didn't score against Houston, but you can

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Speaker 2: see the elements that he brings to the team. Like

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Speaker 2: he guarded Albern Shangoon very well. That allowed Nikole Jokich

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Speaker 2: to roam for most of the game on either of

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Speaker 2: Tari Eason or Men Thompson, depending on what lineup Houston

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Speaker 2: had on the floor. If Aaron Gordon can't guard Shangon,

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Speaker 2: like if that ends up being Peyton Watson, Peyton Watson

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Speaker 2: is gonna get tossed around like a rag doll by

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Speaker 2: Alpern Shangoon. Now Jokic has to guard Shangoon. That allows

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Speaker 2: Houston to attack him and pick and roll. Like, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of different elements that having Aaron Gordon out.

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Speaker 1: There helps boost this team.

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Speaker 2: He had a block in rotation at the rim in

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Speaker 2: the third quarter, kind of like a help side, second

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Speaker 2: side of rim protection kind of thing on the left

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Speaker 2: side of the rim where he got to show that

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Speaker 2: kind of dynamic that I was talking about when we

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Speaker 2: talked about Aaron Gordon, the layers of rim protection. He's

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Speaker 2: so important to have behind Jokic in that specific setup,

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Speaker 2: with the way the team is put together, and he's

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Speaker 2: just such a Swiss army knife for the team. You

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Speaker 2: guys saw him more in the Oklahoma City game, how

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Speaker 2: like how much more he was needed on offense. The

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Speaker 2: ability to shoot the basketball, the fact that he was

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Speaker 2: bigger than most of Oklahoma City's perimeter players. He just

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Speaker 2: so important to the best version of this basketball team.

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Speaker 2: Christian Brown's three point shooting has started to come around.

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Speaker 2: He was three for four last night, thirty six percent

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Speaker 2: from three over his last thirteen games. Not fantastic or anything,

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Speaker 2: but certainly better than he was to start the year.

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Speaker 2: He was looking comfortable and confident last night. I also

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Speaker 2: thought he did a great job defensively on Kevin Durant

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Speaker 2: last night, just taking away the easy ones, being physical

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Speaker 2: up underneath him, really winning the battle on the ground

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Speaker 2: and stopping KD from getting the deep paint touches that

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Speaker 2: can really break a defense down. And then I thought

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Speaker 2: Cam Johnson was fantastic last night. He was great defensively,

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Speaker 2: made a couple of really nice help side rotations at

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Speaker 2: the rim on rockets post ups where he got blocks

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Speaker 2: from behind, just coming in catching them with their heads turned.

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Speaker 2: He hit a couple of steels. He was doing a

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Speaker 2: great job with like these soft double teams of KD,

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Speaker 2: where like he'd just leave his man go like two

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Speaker 2: thirds of the way towards KD and then get up

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Speaker 2: in the passing lane with his arms up so as

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Speaker 2: KD would like drive at him and try to pass

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Speaker 2: to Cam's man, he just get active with his hands.

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Speaker 2: He'd get a deflection or get a steal. He hit

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Speaker 2: three threes in this game. He was aggressive towards the

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Speaker 2: rim at several points, including curling around action as well

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Speaker 2: as in transition. He made some really nice extra passes,

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Speaker 2: just little like grease the wheel passes, like oh, I know,

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Speaker 2: I kind of have a decent look on the right wing,

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Speaker 2: but there's Christian Brown wide open in the corner one time,

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Speaker 2: or extra pass beautiful or saying one he just made

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Speaker 2: one in the left or the right corner, so why

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Speaker 2: not trust him again on the left wing, extra pass

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Speaker 2: to the left wing, Christian Brown knocks the shot down

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Speaker 2: really nice little closeout attack off of the right wing.

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Speaker 2: Jabari Smith helps too much, throws a bad close out.

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Speaker 2: He racks the close out, little shovel pass to Yokich

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Speaker 2: in the lane for a little easy like little hook

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Speaker 2: pass right or a little hook shot in the lane.

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Speaker 1: So like there's a lot.

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Speaker 2: Of just he's just a really solid player who just

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Speaker 2: does the right thing on both ends of the floor

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Speaker 2: most of the time. He's kind of a coach's dream

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Speaker 2: in that sense. I don't think it's a coincidence that

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Speaker 2: he's played as many minutes per game this year as

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Speaker 2: he has, despite how deep this team is. It's just

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Speaker 2: he's been so solid on both ends of the floor.

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Speaker 2: But when he can bring that little extra bit of

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Speaker 2: offensive pop, like actually hit a few of his catch

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Speaker 2: and shoot threes, actually make a few plays off of

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Speaker 2: the bounce, he never will have the ceiling of Michael

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Speaker 2: Porter Junior. But he does have a substantially higher floor

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Speaker 2: in all these like little parts of the game. So

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Speaker 2: when he just hits a couple shots, he suddenly becomes

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Speaker 2: a star in his role. He's a role player that

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Speaker 2: can be profoundly impactful, and like it shows in the numbers,

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Speaker 2: when Cam Johnson scores more than ten points in a

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Speaker 2: game this year, the Nuggets are fourteen and four. He

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Speaker 2: in many ways is that ceiling razer, the guy that

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Speaker 2: can push them to the next level when he's actually

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Speaker 2: putting the ball in a basket.

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Speaker 1: In the basket a little bit. That lineup and.

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Speaker 2: The success they've had all year when they're healthy again

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Speaker 2: this season in the large sample one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: seven minutes plus nineteen net plus twenty one net if

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Speaker 2: you filter out garbage time. That is the lineup that,

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Speaker 2: if you're a Nuggets fan, you point to as your

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Speaker 2: main point of optimism. We're gonna talk about it when

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Speaker 2: we talk about Houston here in a minute. But like

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Speaker 2: you know, when I dig through the all the different

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Speaker 2: types of contenders throughout the league, there are teams that

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Speaker 2: I think are not as good as they look in

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Speaker 2: the standings, like specifically Houston and Los Angeles. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about them more in a minute. And then there

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Speaker 2: are teams that I think are way better than they

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Speaker 2: look in the standings, like Minnesota because they just never

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Speaker 2: play hard, like so to the last three games. If

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Speaker 2: you watch Minnesota, they look like trash right now.

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Speaker 1: They're not that bad. They just they aren't.

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Speaker 2: They just have these extended funks in the regular season

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Speaker 2: where they don't play hard and their offense falls apart.

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Speaker 2: You know, I think they're a lot better than they

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Speaker 2: look in their record. Denver, similarly, it was the injuries.

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Speaker 2: The injuries just decimated this team at various points in

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Speaker 2: the year, including losing their superstar for a good chunk

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Speaker 2: of time. I think this Denver team is a lot

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Speaker 2: better than their record shows, and that lineup is the

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Speaker 2: main point of optimism. They're getting those guys healthy. Props

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Speaker 2: to Jamal Murray too for playing through the ankle injury.

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Speaker 2: It'd be very easy to be like, oh, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: take a couple weeks off here, but like, this team

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Speaker 2: just needs reps. They need reps with their main guys

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Speaker 2: and building out that lineup and getting it to the

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Speaker 2: point where it just continues to crush everybody. That's their

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Speaker 2: best chance to win multiple playoff rounds this year. Today's

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Speaker 2: All right, moving on to Houston. So I want to

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Speaker 2: dive into this dynamic. One of the things that we've

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Speaker 2: talked a lot about when it comes to like the

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Speaker 2: pathways to contention is you either got to dominate the

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Speaker 2: half court battle or you got to dominate on the margins.

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Speaker 2: Those are like the two environments in a basketball game.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: There's the static half court environment, which is like everybody's

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Speaker 2: back on defense. My five guys versus your five guys.

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Speaker 2: Defense is set. Let's see if we can score, or

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Speaker 2: let's see if we can guard on the other end

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Speaker 2: of the floor. Right, it's very static dynamic. But then

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Speaker 2: everything outside of that dynamic isn't is the alternative ways

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Speaker 2: you can win basketball games. It's the special teams, so

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Speaker 2: to speak, of the NBA. Can you win the offensive

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Speaker 2: rebounding battle? Can you win by forcing turnovers? Can you

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Speaker 2: win by out running and just getting up and down

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Speaker 2: the floor in transition? Can you win by getting to

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Speaker 2: the foul line a lot? There's a bunch of like

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Speaker 2: different margins that you can hunt outside of that static

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Speaker 2: half court environment. Now, Houston's offense has slipped all the

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Speaker 2: way down to the twenty second half court offense in

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Speaker 2: the NBA. Now, their half court offense was much better

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Speaker 2: to start the year, but throughout most of the year

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Speaker 2: their offense has been bolstered by things like the offensive

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Speaker 2: glass as well as getting out in transition in things

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Speaker 2: along those lines. But the offense has tapered off as

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Speaker 2: they haven't shot the ball as well. They've red hot

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Speaker 2: to start the season. Steven Adams obviously goes out with

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Speaker 2: an injury and changes your offensive rebounding dynamic. That that slipped,

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Speaker 2: and so there's been a bigger spotlight specifically on their

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Speaker 2: half court offense. They're incredibly turnover prone. They handle doubles poorly,

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Speaker 2: they handle traps poorly. Everyone's responsible. Kevin Durant's terrible.

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Speaker 1: At it, he seems.

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Speaker 2: It's amazing to me how often Kdie gets caught off

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Speaker 2: guard by doubles, considering how often he's been doubled this year,

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Speaker 2: like the several times again Denver last night, where it's

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Speaker 2: like the double catches him and he just kind of

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Speaker 2: panics and he just throws the ball right into the

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Speaker 2: to the trapper's hands, and it's like, dude, you've seen

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Speaker 2: five hundred double teams this year, Like like you've got

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Speaker 2: to be a little bit more ready, a little bit

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Speaker 2: more prepared. Reed Shepherd is so small that he'll have

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Speaker 2: games where he stacks up turnover similarly throwing the ball

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Speaker 2: into length. Shane Gun has sixteen games this year with

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Speaker 2: five plus turnovers, which is crazy for a guy that

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Speaker 2: has a usage rate that's high, but not like anywhere

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Speaker 2: near as high as most of the ball handlers.

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Speaker 1: In the NBA.

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Speaker 2: And they'll have sequences where they handle traps well and

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Speaker 2: they'll get a dunk. Like last night, it was a

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Speaker 2: nice little display of Josha Kogi's interior passing I thought

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Speaker 2: he had a lot of like nice little like connective

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Speaker 2: plays in the middle of flour where he caught the ball,

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Speaker 2: quickly read the situation, dumped it off for men, Thompson

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Speaker 2: gets a dunk something like that. But they just have

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Speaker 2: way too many possessions where they botch it somewhere along

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Speaker 2: the way, like the ball handler will throw it right

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Speaker 2: into the opponent's hands, or the short roll guy will

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Speaker 2: turn it over in the middle of the floor, or

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Speaker 2: like someone will catch it underneath the back getting the

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Speaker 2: dunker spot, but like not actually be able to finish

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Speaker 2: because they didn't process it fast enough. And now all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, everyone's reacted. And they've been a really

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Speaker 2: poor jump shooting team for a while now, since December fifteenth,

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Speaker 2: which is where things really started to go off the

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Speaker 2: rails a bit for Houston. Their twentieth and three point

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Speaker 2: percentage and twenty seventh and three point makes that was

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Speaker 2: getting floated earlier in the season by them just shooting

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Speaker 2: way out.

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Speaker 1: Of their depth.

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Speaker 2: A lot of guys we talked about it on the show,

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Speaker 2: like these are guys where it's like these guys don't

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Speaker 2: typically shoot the ball super well, you know, and my

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Speaker 2: whole thing was like maybe these other guys will fill

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Speaker 2: the gap, like maybe Dorian Phinney Smith will come in

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Speaker 2: and shoot better. And like the opposite has happened, Like

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Speaker 2: those guys have stayed cold, and the guys that had

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Speaker 2: been shooting well early in this, like Tar Easton, has

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Speaker 2: cooled off considerably. Most of their bench guards can't shoot,

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Speaker 2: and so as a result, like Denver you saw it

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Speaker 2: last night, their ability to consistently just stash Jamal Murray

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Speaker 2: or Nicola Jokic on non shooters to muck up everything

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Speaker 2: in Houston's offense or to throw random double teams at

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Speaker 2: KD that caused a ton of problems. And when you

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Speaker 2: got guys like jokichin Murray in particular, like they're both

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Speaker 2: really gifted defensive playmakers.

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Speaker 1: When they get to use their IQ to.

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Speaker 2: Like anticipate plays and their quick reflexes to get deflections,

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00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 2: they can actually be good defenders as opposed to situations

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Speaker 2: where they're forced to guard in space, which is something

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Speaker 2: that Houston can't make them do. I think Houston might

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Speaker 2: be dead on arrival in this particular matchup against Denver.

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Speaker 1: Denver is just.

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Speaker 2: Too good at playing defense against this type of team,

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Speaker 2: these types of teams that give them the flexibility to

359
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 2: stash their defensive playmakers on guys that can't score or

360
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 2: can't shoot. And like Houston looked hopeless last night on

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Speaker 2: defense trying to guard Denver's five, So like, I don't

362
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Speaker 2: think Denver's going to be able to cause anywhere near

363
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Speaker 2: as many problems. Excuse me, I don't think Houston's going

364
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 2: to be able to cause anywhere near as many problems

365
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Speaker 2: for Denver starting five as Denver can cause for Houston

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Speaker 2: with what they can do defensively. And as we've talked

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Speaker 2: about the problem with your half court offense issues, when

368
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 2: you have a bad half court offense, you have to

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Speaker 2: be great on the margins to make up for it,

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Speaker 2: like what Houston did early in the year, or what

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00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 2: Detroit has been doing all season since Steven Adams went down.

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Speaker 2: They're not even winning the offensive rebound battle anymore. Since

373
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Speaker 2: January twentieth, that's the first game they played after Steven

374
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 2: Adams was out for the season. They're losing the offense

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Speaker 2: rebound of battle. They are allowing sixteen and a half

376
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,640
Speaker 2: second chance points per game in getting sixteen point one

377
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 2: so negative zero point four points per points per game

378
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,240
Speaker 2: in the second chance battle, that is no longer a

379
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:44,080
Speaker 2: positive margin for them since Steven Adams went down. They

380
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,400
Speaker 2: get annihilated in transition and in points off of turnovers

381
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:49,000
Speaker 2: because they can't take care of the basketball.

382
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Speaker 1: They lose points off.

383
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,280
Speaker 2: Of turnovers by four point seven points every single game,

384
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 2: and they lose fast break points by three point four

385
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 2: points per game. So now they are negative across the

386
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 2: board in the margin and the turnovers, fast break stuff.

387
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,199
Speaker 2: That's just the nature of their inability to take care

388
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 2: of the basketball. But they're even slightly losing offensive rebounding.

389
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Speaker 2: And so when you actually get killed in the margins

390
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,719
Speaker 2: and you can't score in the half court, that's going

391
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 2: to put you in a really, really tough spot. The

392
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Speaker 2: one thing that they have, the one strong point that

393
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,240
Speaker 2: they have, is that they are a very good defense,

394
00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,200
Speaker 2: and so that is what has allowed them to win

395
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 2: the amount of games that they have. The concerning part

396
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 2: to me, though, is what used to be a very

397
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 2: strong part of their contending case was how well they

398
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 2: performed against the top teams. That was something I talked

399
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,960
Speaker 2: a lot about earlier in the season, was like, well,

400
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 2: every single time they end up in a big game.

401
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 2: They compete really well, and they've won so many of them. Well,

402
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 2: that has completely gone the other direction, back to back

403
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,240
Speaker 2: blowout losses to Denver and San Antonio. They lost to

404
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 2: the Knicks a few weeks back. The last time they

405
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 2: beat one of my top nine contenders was that win

406
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,960
Speaker 2: in Oklahoma City against the Thunder, But that was without

407
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 2: aj Mitchell, without Shae Kills, Alexander or j Dubb.

408
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,280
Speaker 1: So like, basically the shell.

409
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 2: Of the Thunder with no ball handling a completely different

410
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 2: type of challenge right like, barely even resembles what they

411
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 2: look like when at least Shay is out there, right

412
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,320
Speaker 2: And then before that, before that law win in Oklahoma City,

413
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 2: blown out at home by the Celtics, that crazy fourth

414
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 2: quarter debacle against the Spurs where they ended up losing

415
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 2: by twelve, you have to go all the way back

416
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: to January twenty third, when they won that big game

417
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,879
Speaker 2: on the road in Detroit. That was the last time

418
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 2: the Rockets beat one of the top nine contenders if

419
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 2: we don't count that Oklahoma City win, which again was

420
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 2: without shajw Aj Mitchell. So like, it hasn't been pretty.

421
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 2: It's been trending in the wrong direction. For a long time. Again,

422
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 2: if you look at the team, they have one true strength.

423
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 2: They're a good defensive team. They are ninth in offensive

424
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 2: rating on the season, but those numbers were floated by

425
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 2: their absurd shooting in the early part of the season,

426
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 2: and since then it's trended significantly downward. And again, they've

427
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 2: been losing the second chance points battle since Steven Adams

428
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 2: went down. So you're a good defense, not even a

429
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,120
Speaker 2: great defense. They've been tenth in defensive ratings since December fifteenth,

430
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 2: so it's not like they've been an elite defense.

431
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 1: But they've been a.

432
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 2: Good defense for for most of the season. And the

433
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,120
Speaker 2: offensive rebound margin is gone and their offense has fallen

434
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 2: off of a cliff. And so I'm beginning to look

435
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 2: at the Rockets the way that I look at the Lakers.

436
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 2: You can't completely count them out because you've got KD

437
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 2: and you've got a good defense, and we all know

438
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,360
Speaker 2: that Shang Gun is capable of playing dominant basketball for stretches.

439
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 1: All those Shangun's kind of kind of having a disappointing

440
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 1: season for the Lakers. It's different.

441
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,680
Speaker 2: It's like, well, what about if Lebron, Luca and Austin

442
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 2: just get hot for a month all at the same time.

443
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 2: But both of these teams are so deeply flawed compared

444
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: to those other middle tier West teams. Again, those four,

445
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 2: they're all right next to each other in the standings,

446
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 2: and all season long, I've been saying this, like I

447
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 2: see a lot of Lakers fans already like, oh my gosh,

448
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 2: Like we're tied for the third seed in the West,

449
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 2: and it's like, what have I been saying? Everyone in

450
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 2: the chunk of the standings is like one bad week

451
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 2: from being the sixth seed and one great week from

452
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 2: being the three seed.

453
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 1: Like, and that's why it just keeps going like this

454
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: all all damn season long.

455
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 2: Denver's up to three, Denver's down to six, Houston's up

456
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 2: to three, Houston's down to five. Like it's just everyone's

457
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 2: going up and down because they're all just kind of

458
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: clustered on each other.

459
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: But if you actually dig into.

460
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 2: Why their records look the way that they look, and again,

461
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 2: I don't want to pretend like Houston and the Lakers

462
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 2: don't have some injury things that have popped up this year. Obviously,

463
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 2: the Steven Adams injury hurt the team Obviously, the Lakers

464
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 2: have missed one of their three stars form the majority

465
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 2: of the season, but like no one has come close

466
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 2: to the injury luck that Denver's had. They're way better

467
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 2: than their record because they've just been decimated by injuries.

468
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: And like we talked about, I'm not falling for the

469
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 2: bullshit Minnesota thing again. Like this is like the twentieth

470
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 2: time I've watched them in the last two seasons where

471
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 2: I'm like, this team looks absolutely terrible, but we just

472
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 2: know they get into the postseason, they ratchet up their

473
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: athleticism in physicality, they can defend better than most teams

474
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 2: in the league, and it just turns out that Anthony

475
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 2: Edwards and Julius Randall and naseried are really difficult to

476
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 2: guard in playoff basketball when they start really starting to

477
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 2: impose themselves physically. So I think Minnesota and Denver are

478
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: kind of in their own tier there. When we've done

479
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 2: our contender rankings, I've kind of kept things really simple.

480
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 2: Top tier contender, second tier contender in our last two

481
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 2: sets of contender rankings. I'm really going to start to

482
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:31,360
Speaker 2: try to parse them out into even smaller tiers as

483
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 2: we start to look at what separates these teams and

484
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 2: how good of a chance they actually have.

485
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 1: But to me.

486
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 2: Houston and LA are kind of in that same grouping

487
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 2: as like these teams are just so profoundly flawed. You know,

488
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 2: the Houston's offense is just terrible and they don't win

489
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 2: on the margins anymore. And the Lakers simply don't have

490
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 2: the defensive personnel or the overall physicality and athleticism to

491
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 2: hang with the top teams in the league. So I'd

492
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 2: be shocked if either of those two teams like won

493
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 2: multiple playoff series and we were watching them in the

494
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 2: West Conference Finals. I'll probably be picking against both of

495
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 2: them in their first round series.

496
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: All right, quickly, before we.

497
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 2: Get out of here today, I wanted to just briefly

498
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: talk about the Orlando Magic. They've won five games in

499
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: a row after a big win against the Cleveland Cavaliers

500
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 2: last night, They're eleven and four in their last fifteen games.

501
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 2: They've been the best defense in the league in that span,

502
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 2: and there's a couple of specific things that I want

503
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 2: to dive into that I think have been driving that.

504
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 2: First of all, a lot of switching, especially one through four.

505
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 2: Wendell Carter Junior will switch at the five when needed.

506
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 2: But one of the and this is one of there's

507
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 2: a couple of clear distinctions that makes their switching attack

508
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: work really well. So One, they switch, but they apply

509
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 2: ball pressure, so it's not a passive switching like hang back,

510
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 2: keep the ball in front type of defense. They switch

511
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: and they can get physical and pressure the ball. Two,

512
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 2: they don't switch when they don't have to. So like,

513
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 2: for instance, last night, Donovan Mitchell's trying to hunt Wendell

514
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 2: Carter Junior in ball screens because he wants to have

515
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 2: an easier opportunity to drive. And like, sometimes Jalen Suggs

516
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: will just be like, guess what, you're not setting a

517
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 2: screen on me? Like, and he's super athletic and and

518
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 2: bulky and strong, and and he'll just sidle up and

519
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 2: get really thin and just get over the top of

520
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 2: the screen.

521
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 1: He'll chest you up on the other end.

522
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 2: And like, there are sequences last night where Donovan like

523
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: straight up couldn't shake Jalen in ball screens. And that's

524
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 2: the kind of thing that can happen at times when

525
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 2: you have that level of perimeter defender. They're wing same

526
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 2: sort of thing, like they're you'll see like they will

527
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 2: switch any action in that one through four if there's

528
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 2: like a really good pick set, but like if guys

529
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 2: are trying to slip, if there's any sort of like

530
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: opportunity to stay attached, they'll stay attached, so they don't

531
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 2: concede switches that they don't need to. And then lastly,

532
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 2: they stay home off the ball and they trust their

533
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 2: on ball defenders. That's what's different with this kind of

534
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 2: switching attack compared to like another team that does a

535
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: lot of switching but that doesn't have the perimeter defenders

536
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 2: to make it work. The classic example of this is

537
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: the Lakers. They run a ton of switching and they

538
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 2: just have a bunch of bad defenders, so they sag back.

539
00:24:58,119 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: And you know, the Lakers have been playing better def

540
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 2: as of late, but they don't have the personnel to

541
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: like really really contain the ball. Orlando has the personnel

542
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,360
Speaker 2: to really really contain the ball. This allows them to

543
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 2: stay home in off ball situations when people are attacking

544
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 2: their matchups, and so as a result, they've been great

545
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,719
Speaker 2: at keeping teams off the three point line all season.

546
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: But they're number one in the league in opponent three

547
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: pointers made and opponent three point percentage in this fifteen

548
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 2: game span where they're eleven and four while still being

549
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,239
Speaker 2: eighth in opponent points in the paint. So like, that

550
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 2: is a really impressive switching defense. That's really impressive individual

551
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 2: on ball defense to be getting less help than the

552
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 2: majority of defenses around the league are giving, but to

553
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: still be a top ten protecting the paint defense. Everyone's

554
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: just doing a fantastic job of containing the ball in

555
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 2: those situations. And then, and this is the big surprise,

556
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: in this fifteen game span, they are tenth in offense.

557
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 2: And there's a couple of specific things that I want

558
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 2: to zero in on. One, I think Desmond Bain and

559
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: Palamoncarra have just been playing fantastic basketball. You could really

560
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 2: see early in the year that there was a natural

561
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 2: fit there. They had some stuff they had to work out.

562
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: I didn't like the way that they were attacking on

563
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 2: offense in the early part of the season. It felt

564
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 2: very your turn, my turn. But the two of those

565
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: guys have had such a great attacking mentality as of late.

566
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: Palo is fully healthy now and he's just getting downhill

567
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 2: all the time. And then Desmond Baan, you know, he

568
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: is the kind of guy that uses his jump shooting

569
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: ability to generate driving angles better than most guards in

570
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: the league, and so he gets screaming downhill all the time.

571
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 1: He killed the.

572
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: Calves in the second half last night, just getting all

573
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 2: the way to the front of the rim. Those two

574
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: guys in this fifteen game span are averaging forty nine

575
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 2: point three points per game. They've both been shooting the

576
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: ball really well from an efficiency standpoint. Awesome basketball from

577
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,719
Speaker 2: Desmond Bay and Palamont Caro. All these like little random

578
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 2: contributions here and there, like Anthony Black will have a

579
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 2: massive game one night, Wendell Carter Junior was awesome in

580
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 2: that second half run last night. And then as a team,

581
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 2: they've been shooting the ball from three okay. And that's

582
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 2: the key, because for the majority of the season they've

583
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: been in the bottom five and three point percentage. In

584
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: this fifteen game span, they've been seventeenth in three point percentage.

585
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 2: Just handful of contributions across the board, like Palo shooting

586
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 2: in the mid thirties instead of way below that, right,

587
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 2: or like you know, Jet Howard comes in and hits

588
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 2: a couple of threes last night, Javon Carter hit one.

589
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 2: Jalen Suggs has been shooting the ball, Tristan da Silva's

590
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: been shooting the ball well. Wendell Carter Junior stepped in

591
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 2: and hit a big three out of the right corner

592
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 2: last night. Like just guys making a few more than

593
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 2: they had been missing early in the season, making them

594
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 2: that like average three point shooting team. When you're just

595
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 2: providing that in conjunction with basket attacking, you're really difficult

596
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 2: to guard.

597
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 1: That's when things turned.

598
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 2: In that Cavs game yesterday, especially in that late third

599
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: quarter run. It's just, you know, Jet Howard and Javon

600
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 2: Carter and Wendell Carter Junior all hit some threes and

601
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 2: it's like, man, that's nine points. That's a big deal

602
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 2: in a game like that. So just getting a little

603
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,719
Speaker 2: bit of better reliability in their spot up shooting has

604
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 2: gone a long way. One that is playing some good

605
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 2: basketball again. They've had a little bit of a light

606
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 2: schedule in this run, but they have a couple of

607
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 2: really big impressive wins in that span, including that big

608
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: win against the Calves last night. They have Washington next

609
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: that's an easy one, but they do play the Oklahoma

610
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 2: City Thunder on March seventeenth. That'll be a really interesting

611
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 2: one to watch their switch and contain scheme versus Oklahoma

612
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 2: City's ability to drive the basketball. I'm excited to watch

613
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 2: that one. All right, guys, It's all I have for

614
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: today is always to sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting

615
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: us and supporting the show. We'll be back tomorrow with

616
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 2: our contender rankings.

617
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 1: I will see you guys then,