WEBVTT - Wall Street Titans Warn of the Next Big Risks 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.640 plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.239 Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.200 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.760 pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:32.480 on YouTube search Bloomberg Clovel News. Well. About nine months 0:00:32.560 --> 0:00:35.239 after the arrival of vaccines, dozens of countries have yet 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:38.240 to reach ten percent of their populations. It's a milestone 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:41.400 seen as crucial in narrowing the worldwide gap and access 0:00:41.440 --> 0:00:43.800 to him in European countries with lower vaccination rates can 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:47.120 see a surge in COVID nineteen infections, hospitalizations and deaths 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:49.320 over the next two months that according to the European 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:52.120 Center for Disease Prevention at CONTROL. It's not easy, all right. 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:55.800 Once again, for our daily COVID update, Elizabeth Stewart Professor 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.080 of American Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:00.920 Public Health. Another member of the Hopkins team that we 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:04.360 lean on to get us through and understand everything and 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.560 all things COVID night teen and she joins us on 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.800 the phone in Washington, d c Um Elizabeth, good to 0:01:09.840 --> 0:01:13.800 have you here with us. Among the headlines that keep coming, 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:15.440 what is it that you think we should be paying 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:19.520 the most attention to. It's great to be here, Thanks 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:22.560 for talking with me today. I think we see some 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:26.320 good news on the horizon. Cases are plateauing or even 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:29.639 going down in many places, and there's hopes that the 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.680 vaccine is going to be available for kids under twelve 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:35.640 in the next you know, couple of months. But I 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:37.720 think we have to be careful not to let down 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:41.280 our guards. As we've learned throughout the sandemic, we're not 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:43.120 out of the woods yet, and so we need to 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.560 sort of stay vigilant. Okay, what are those things that 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:47.240 we need to do to stay vigilant, because I've known 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:49.360 I'm definitely not acting the same way that I acted 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:54.200 when I wasn't vaccinated. Yeah, I think the key thing 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:59.320 is still avoiding indoor gatherings, especially without masks, and and 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:03.000 in large groups, keeping an eye on sort of trying 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:08.120 to maintain contact with people who are vaccinated, being careful 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:09.960 again if it's going to be a large group that 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:13.280 might not be vaccinated. I think people with kids under 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:17.680 twelve also have very different considerations, and for them, again 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:21.680 sort of the core masks, keeping distance, and any of 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:24.840 the adults, anyone overage twelves who can be vaccinated really 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:28.160 should get vaccinated, and that can really help keep even 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:30.640 the younger kids safe. Well, so let's talk about that. 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:32.320 I mean, I'm lucky enough to have a kid who's 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:34.920 old enough that she's been able to get the vaccine. 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.040 Tim has a little one who hasn't been vaccinated. So 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:41.840 what is your thoughts advice to parents, many of which 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:45.400 are vaccinated, but their younger kids are not, and increasingly 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.320 there in daycare or they're back in school. You know, 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:53.000 how do we manage that in the best way? Yeah, 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:55.480 it's it's something many of us are struggling with. I 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.919 think keeping an eye on reducing the risk as much 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:01.960 as you can, but without sort of sacrificing the essential 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:05.200 activities that these kids need. So I've been very happy 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.720 to see schools really opening this fall, many of them 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:11.960 are implementing the mitigation strategies that they should be in 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:15.720 terms of masks and ventilation. One thing that I think 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:18.200 I would put on people's radar screen are the role 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:21.640 of rapid tests, and I think they've been underutilized. I 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:24.720 think all households should have some in their cabinet to 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.320 pull out when a kid has a sniffle. I think 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:30.320 schools should be using them more to kind of track 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:33.079 infections and sort of just keep an eye on who 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:35.920 has symptoms and and do a really quick fifteen minute 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:38.720 test which can be quite accurate to see who might 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:41.280 actually be infectious. I try to go and get these, 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:43.160 and I have several times going to drug stores in 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:47.760 my neighborhood. They're sold out. It's a major problem everywhere. 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.360 They were available more so over the summer, but after 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:54.160 me and has increased this fall. I agree, him, shaking 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:57.600 his head. I was actually at a drugs, a drug 0:03:57.640 --> 0:03:59.960 store in my neighborhood, and the guys said, our truck 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.000 is coming in today. I will put one aside for you. 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:04.760 And I went back later and he said the truck 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.000 had none on there. I'm so sorry, Like that's what 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:10.760 people are doing in my neighborhood in Brooklyn. Yes, I 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:13.640 think that's happening in a lot of places. The federal government, 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:16.160 I think is working, I hope is working on art 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:18.919 to increase supply. Um. But I think that's really what 0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:22.040 we need to focus on, is increasing supply, increasing access, 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:24.200 because I think that rapid tests are going to be 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:26.480 a key tool that's really going to help us keep 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:29.360 this under control. Right, We've talked about we had no playbook, 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:31.880 We didn't really have a tool kit at the beginning 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:33.880 of this, but we increasingly do. And it sounds like 0:04:33.920 --> 0:04:35.920 this those rapid tests should be part of it. If 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:38.200 you can get them, yeah, if you can get them, yeah, exactly. 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:40.600 All right, Elizabeth Stewart, thank you so much, Professor of 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:43.360 American Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:46.080 of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.800 LP and Bloomberg Philanthropy. She is joining us or was 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:51.040 joining us on the phone from the Nation's capital. Look, 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:54.000 the alternative to not having rapid tests in your home 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:57.279 is going to an urgent care clinic and standing around 0:04:57.279 --> 0:04:59.960 a bunch of people and waiting. It's why in the beginning, 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.919 if we thought we maybe wanted to get a test. 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:05.680 My husband and I were like, before we were vaccinated, 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:07.720 I don't want to go and stand with people who 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.680 think they might have COPI, especially when it was often 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:14.160 long lines and long waits. This is Bloomberg Business Week 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:18.280 with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovich on 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:22.520 Bloomberg Radio. So in its sites an initial public offering 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:26.360 and as such, Patreon and I saying it right, Patreon 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:30.000 Patreon or Patreon Patreon, all right, thank you, Joel Weber. 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:33.160 They're investing in original programming in the face of growing competition. 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.080 So let's get right to this story. You know, with 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:37.800 us is Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber and someone 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:40.680 who's been following the beginning of the story now the 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:44.000 transformation of this company is Bloomberg News Entertainment reporter Lucashaw. 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.320 He's on the phone in l A. What I'm just thinking. 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:49.839 It's like, like Lucas starts out the piece, everybody is 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:52.160 trying to get on the bandwagon that Patreon created. Joe, 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.800 they literally created it. You know, this is like the 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:59.159 company that basically helped facilitate people to be like you 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.680 can you can just straight up ask people for money online, 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:05.359 just say, hey, would you like to donate money to 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:08.919 my people? And people will give it to you. And 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.960 and you know, when when that first happened, I was like, wait, 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.880 what there's like this is like a company that's doing 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.919 this like and and Business Week had covered it forever, 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.279 and then the pandemic happened, and then it's like everybody 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.640 realized this was a business opportunity and then you could 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.839 do it in many different ways. And then I think 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.880 that's um, you know, basically caused Patreon to realize, hey, 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:30.960 we were way ahead of this and we know what 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:33.320 we're doing. And now it's like, okay, if we're gonna 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:36.120 go go public, you know, how do we how do 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:39.960 we distinguish ourselves? So so, Lucas, what's the plan. The 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:44.080 plan is to get a lot more people using Patreon 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:48.240 uh through this enticement where they're going to you know, 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:52.680 offer too fun uh podcast, a video series, what have you, 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:56.440 um and hope that the more people go use it, 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.560 the more the revenue grows. And then there's also a 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:03.039 design or to make Patreon a little bit more of 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:05.680 a destination. You know, for most of its existence, it's 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:08.520 been this layer in between. You know, you are a 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:11.240 YouTube or you're a Twitter streamer, you're a podcaster, but 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:15.280 you use Patreon to kind of monetize your most art 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.800 and fans. Now they want people if they're going to 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.840 see that that podcast that they pay for, the video 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:23.360 series they pay for, maybe they'll do so on Patreon. 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.040 Can they compete with the biggest players out there, even 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.520 if they're the original the the O g s on this? 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.240 I mean, look, Twitter allows tipping, you can directly pay 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:35.520 for creators through sub stack. You know, I think that 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:40.120 the odds of them competing as a media destination are 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.520 pretty low, and that's why you see the CEO Jack 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.640 CONTI stress that they're not trying to compete head to 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:48.920 head with YouTube because pretty much anyone who's tried to 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:53.200 do that other than TikTok has failed. Um. I do 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.960 think that they can continue to exist as this and 0:07:57.200 --> 0:08:00.080 b to be business in between, because one thing that 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.680 that they offer is an ability to sort of work 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:05.480 across all of these different sites. So if you're someone 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:09.400 who is both a podcaster but you also upload a 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:13.040 video of your podcast YouTube and maybe you also want 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.440 aid followers on Twitter, you can centralize it in one place, 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:19.000 and so as long as some of these other sites 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:23.000 don't cut off Patreon, I think it can because this 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:25.120 market is so big, it's going to keep growing. They're 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:26.440 going to be a lot of people who do it 0:08:26.520 --> 0:08:29.200 and a lot of people who win. And you know, 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:31.800 maybe maybe they don't just want to charge people on 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:35.520 YouTube because you tend to charge your fans for multiple things, 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.120 not just for one thing. Hey, Lucas, how do creators 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:42.040 see Patreon? Because there's a line in your story about 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:44.560 Conti and how he has always described the company as 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:47.120 creator first. Do creators feel that way? Is there something 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.520 special or different that they feel like they get with 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:53.000 this versus going to some of the bigger platforms that 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:55.320 probably have deeper pockets and can do a lot more. 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:59.520 He has the creators that we spoke with view Patreon 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:02.120 very sa aforably, Perhaps I'm surprising link is peop always 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:05.319 spoke with it. Are those making money using the service 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.720 and using their different tools? I think people like the 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.760 average creator likes that there is an independent company that 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:14.079 is allowing them to make money and so that they're 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:17.760 not to beholden to one of these tech giants. But 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:22.400 there are a number of people who don't use Patreon 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:24.560 or don't charge fans in any way. And I think 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:27.040 one of the keys for Patreon is getting more of 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.240 those people to use it. That can be you know, 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:31.719 there's a desire I think have some of these A 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:35.560 list celebrities thinking about using Patreon, But some of those 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:39.640 those celebrities are are still uncomfortable with the idea of 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.320 asking fans for direct donations. You know, there's a difference 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:45.920 between Will Smith asking people to pay him five dollars 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:49.280 a month and some YouTuber. If the average person knows 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:51.160 that Will Smith has a lot of money and might 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:55.440 not like that idea. But Patreon wants more people to 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.200 get over some of that concern because that's that's really 0:09:58.200 --> 0:10:00.280 a key to their business. Everybody can just be asking 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:04.880 for money for anything. Um So, which, how does how 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:09.160 do investors feel when Patreon asked them for money? It 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.760 seems right now pretty good. I mean Patreon went from 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:15.880 being worth one point two billion in September of last 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:18.880 year to being worth more more than four billion just 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:20.839 a few months ago, so they more than tripled in 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:24.400 less than a year. That is certainly tied up in 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:28.040 this this rush around the creator economy and what the 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:32.560 pandemic has wrought. You know, it's hard to know how 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:34.120 you know, if this is a case where people just 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.480 got over enthusiastic or not um but there is just 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.880 a ton of money flooding into this space. There third 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:43.360 party estimates saying that the creator economy is now at 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:46.240 twenty billion dollar business, maybe even more than that. Uh 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:48.840 and and Jack County at least feels good enough that 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:52.760 he says he's not selling uh and and his he's 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:55.360 not spacking his desires to go public in a more 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:59.160 traditional way. Okay, more fun question. In doing your research 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:04.599 on on Patreon, what were your favorite UH causes that 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:08.160 you that you either found and discovered or you know, 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:13.640 old favorites. You know, the biggest category this is this, 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.640 I apologize because this might not be the kind of 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:19.520 the fund quirky answer you're looking for, But the biggest 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.280 category to me that feels like it really works on 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:27.600 Patreon is podcasting, because that's that's an industry that is 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:31.480 almost entirely ad supported. The ad market is still is growing, 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:35.120 but still relatively small, and you have these people who 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:38.680 host the shows and their fans feel a strong personal 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:42.400 connection with it, and so there is. I think there's 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:45.960 there's a willingness to contribute and fund and so a 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:49.120 lot of these podcasters can make as much, if not 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:53.880 more money from Patreon than they would from the traditional 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:56.320 podcast marketplace. And I think that's one of the keys 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.760 to this is you look across the Internet and a 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:02.240 lot of the kind of the creators are making money 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:06.320 off relatively low CPM kind of call or just low 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:09.360 rate advertising. YouTubers, you can only make it if you 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:11.600 reach a lot of money, if you reach huge scale. 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:15.320 Same podcasting, You've got this whole middle class of creator 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:19.319 that really needs support from their fans to make it work. 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.640 Um and and podcasting is one I think Patreon has 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:24.880 just had a ton of success. Yeah, and certainly an 0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:26.880 alternative to the model that's out there when it comes 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.480 to podcast. Imagine, like the key to the new middle 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:34.000 class is just asking for money. Like it's actually kind 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.080 of jeeus. Like you can see it. You know, if 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.120 you could facilitate this, and all you needed to do 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:42.600 is be able to you know, hey, subscribe and actually 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:44.760 have like you know, a way to actually facilitate that. 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.559 It's it's there's hope, there's hope. I know what we're 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.439 all going to be doing later on I don't know, Carol, 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:52.599 I gotta reminds me the fact that nobody's tipped to 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:57.000 yet on Twitter, Carol, that hasn't happened. All Right, we 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.280 gotta run. Lukashaw check it out his story and the 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.319 upcoming issue Bloomberg Business Week, Entertainment reporter of Bloomberg News. 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:07.040 This is the Big Take, the best of Bloomberg's in 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.160 depth original reporting from around the globe. Well, we have 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.600 to make sure we do. As the Economy covers, is 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.040 what cup The data kind of broken down a bit. 0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:18.560 It's fun to becoming more and more expensive, maybe looking 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:21.520 at for fifteen billion dollars for the entry levels. There's 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.600 been ways of immigration that have faced a lot of resistance, 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:26.960 a lot of color behind the scenes in a great 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.080 untold story. How did Bezos really come out on top? 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:33.000 As the cover says, Jeff wins, he always seems to 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:37.480 win the Big Take on Bloomberg Radio. You are listening 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:39.800 to Bloomberg Business Week Carl Master along with Tim Stenovik 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.880 at Bloomberg Headquarters in New York City. So the Bloomberg 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:44.960 Big Take. It's also the most read story on the 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:48.839 Bloomberg Today it is about the Wall Street Titans warnings 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.040 of the next big risks for investors. So our Bloomberg 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.480 News Wall Street reporter Shinelli Boss she caught up with 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.480 the founder of our investment Management, Kathy Would. She talked 0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:00.280 with the chief economic advisor of Alians at Bloomberg pinion 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:05.400 contributor Muhammad al Aaron, and also Googenham Investments chairman Scott Minors. 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.480 So let's kick things off and see what some of 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.080 them had to say. Let's start with our investment CEO 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:14.400 Cathy Wood. She says, not inflation, but deflation. That's her 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.720 biggest concern. There are companies who thought the world would 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:24.880 never change and have been catering to short term shareholders 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:27.800 who wanted that extra penny or two in earnings and 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:32.080 so got it by having the company's leverage up and 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:36.160 take more debt and shrink the number of shares UH. 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:41.680 And they've also been um focused on dividends. UH. They 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:47.640 are probably settled with products and services that will become 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:52.720 obsolete because of the record breaking amount of innovation taking 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:58.000 place today, and in order to service their debt, they 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:01.960 are going to have to cut price, says UH, and 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:06.040 move those Uh, those goods and services that are on 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:10.720 their way out anyway. So I am concerned about that, 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:13.960 and I think there's going to be a lot of 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:17.880 confusion around it as well. That's our investment CEO Cathy 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:21.520 would on the risks she sees from deflation now onto 0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:23.920 our next risk. In the view from Guggenheim Chairman and 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:27.160 chief Investment Officers, Scott Minored, when it comes to risks 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:30.080 for the global financial system, his main concern is tied 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:34.680 to hackers targeting global payments systems. Let's take the thing 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:37.600 that bothers me about something like the global payment system 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:41.440 is I don't think anyone's focused on it. And this 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:45.560 really takes a high degree of international cooperation. It takes 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:50.480 a real macro look, meaning there needs to be somebody 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.600 or some group of people who who are looking at 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:58.920 how everything interconnects and and where the potential vulnerabilities are. 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.960 I think there's stage um this is in the world 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:07.960 of the unthinkable, and so therefore, um, you know, I've 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:11.320 used this phrase before. There's a cognitive dissidence around it, 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:15.640 which is to talk about this idea. The consequences are 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:20.520 so dire that immediately people just sort of moved on 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:23.560 to say, well, that will never happen, right, and so 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:30.040 it's uh, I think there's there's a real vulnerability that 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.720 would certainly freak out the world in the markets. That 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.960 of course with Koggenheim chairman and chief investment officers Scott 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:38.800 married right, we talk about security, especially when it comes 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:41.040 to our financial world. Yeah, all of these so diverse 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:43.640 with what their big risks are exactly. All Right, lastly, 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:46.360 let's see what's concerning and on the mind of Alian's 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:50.440 economic advisor, Bloomberg opinion columnist at Muhammad al Arian. When 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:54.040 it comes to long term risks for global markets, Arian says, 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:58.560 rising inequality. That's really his primary concern. I think the 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.640 thing that worries me to most is inequality, both within 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:05.040 and across countries. And it's something that the financial markets 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:08.959 puts aside as a social problem, not really an economic 0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:14.240 or financial problem, and we risk seeing the issue of 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:20.960 inequality gather momentum. COVID has already been the great unequalizer, 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:23.680 but rather than go back to where we've come from, 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:28.000 we are now creating the dynamics inequality to worsen and 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:31.520 to assume greater importance in disrupting all sorts of things 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.760 in our society. But the one thing that worries me 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:38.160 even more than that, and I'm already worried about income, 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:42.679 and what's inequality is the inequality of opportunity. We know 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:46.800 what COVID did to people who had no WiFi at home, 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:51.240 who had no computers. We know that school districts, public schools, listen, 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:54.800 lost touch with a lot of their students. And these 0:17:54.800 --> 0:18:00.920 students risk not only becoming unemployed, but unemployable, which means 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:04.879 a lost generation of young people. And that, of course, 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:09.040 was a Mohammad l Arian. He's Alliance's economic advisor. He's 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.400 also a Bloomberg opinion columnist. And you can get more 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:15.440 on all of this to another risks facing the market side. 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.600 It's a big take. It's on the Bloomberg terminal at 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:21.600 Bloomberg dot com, so check it out. Some really thoughtful ideas, 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:24.320 really thoughtful, and also each one is so different. It 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:26.359 is I thought, it's really fascinating, and we're going to 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:28.479 talk about this through you know, throughout the when our 0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:30.600 Bloomberg TV friends join us a little after the close 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:33.760 of trading to call it beyond the Bell. Beyond the Bell. 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:35.960 I know, oh, I know, but the idea of what 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.240 Cathy Wood is talking about, because there's so much concern 0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:41.000 about inflation right now, and she's saying, no, that is 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.639 not what you have to be concerned about. Deflation is 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:45.040 what's going to happen, and it's going to be caused 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:47.840 by these disruptive companies, and of course disruptive companies that 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:50.840 she's invested in. I think it's fascinating because a lot 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:52.920 of things are changing how we do it. Think about 0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:55.600 the pandemic, and healthcare has been one of those areas 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:57.520 that's been slow to change. We know it. We still 0:18:57.560 --> 0:18:59.000 have to fill out for you know, we all talked 0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:01.720 about this massive man database. We're concerned about privacy. I 0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:05.359 get it, But during the pandemic, things in terms of 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:08.200 the medical world took a big step forward in terms 0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:10.360 of embracing the virtual world. Yeah, I mean I still 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:13.440 can't get those you know, rapid COVID tests, but that 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:17.720 supply chain problems, the inequality, inequalities though around the world, 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.200 it's something we hear from global central bankers, it's something 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:23.160 we hear from global leaders. That's a big problem because 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:26.880 we have seen in the pandemic again exacerbated that that 0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:30.480 people are not sharing in in the wealth creation equally 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:33.439 around the globe, and what happens if that doesn't if 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.440 it continues to get worse, it turns into this cycle 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:41.000 as l Arian was describing, where people cannot actually improve 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:43.280 their own stations in life, and they cannot pull themselves 0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:45.920 up by their bootstraps, as you know, many had hoped 0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:48.760 would happen in developing markets. And he said, you know too, 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:51.240 when it comes to consumption and economic growth. He writes 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:53.840 that the rich capture more income and more wealth, they 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:55.920 spend less of it, and that the poor tend to 0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:58.720 consume more. And so how does this all trickle down 0:19:58.800 --> 0:20:03.000 essentially in turn of momentum, if you will, in growth 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:04.400 around the world. So I guess we'll have to see. 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:05.760 We're gonna talk a little bit more about this. But 0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:07.080 I love when we can get these kind of big 0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:11.040 macro conversations three different people and see what's on their 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:14.639 minds and what's got mind said to about security and hacking. 0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:17.600 It's a huge time and I think it just becomes 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.359 a bigger and bigger concern going forward. Again. Check that 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:25.200 out at Bloomberg dot com. I'm roc yeah, but you 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:27.639 let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, this is 0:20:27.680 --> 0:20:31.800 not a toy home, all right, please, I'll do the 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:38.800 right gravels I want to dry. It's good question, good drive. 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:48.080 This is the Drive to the Clothes on Bloomberg Radio. 0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:50.720 Listen to you. Just about ten minutes left in today's 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:53.639 trading session. We are definitely off our best levels of 0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:55.960 the session. Taking another lay down in the last I 0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:58.480 would say about half an hour or so, one point 0:20:58.520 --> 0:21:00.760 four percent lower on the DAD would start from Charlie, 0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:03.960 the biggest decline on a percentage basis, and the SMP 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:06.800 still down about nine tents of NAZAC just down about 0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:09.240 two tents of percent. So let's get to it. Drive 0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:12.720 to the Clothes with Jana. Janna Barton is equity portfolio 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.600 manager and Director of Specialty Solutions at Eaton Vance, and 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:17.880 she joins us once again on the phone from Boston. Janna, 0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:19.880 great to have you back on the show with us. 0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:22.320 Here we are end of the quarter, end of the month. 0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:24.199 This is the first mixed quarter and eight for u 0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:26.119