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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree? All got five dollars?

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Speaker 2: This is a rain happy tackle hip one man. You're

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Speaker 2: saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans

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Speaker 2: need fantasy to be human? My goodness, that miss good

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Speaker 2: You guys prose the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, Bayless?

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Speaker 2: What is up? Everybody? Welcome to the Fantasy of Flex podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond of the Action Network and

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Speaker 2: this is our AFC North offseason fantasy preview episode. Here

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Speaker 2: to break it down with me another one of the

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Speaker 2: top fantasy football rankers in the game, the odds maker

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Speaker 2: Sean Kerner. Sean, what is going on?

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Speaker 1: What's up?

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Speaker 3: Hopefully you had fun in Denver. I was holding down

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Speaker 3: the fort for us in LA and I'll be seeing

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Speaker 3: you tonight.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, I had a lot of fun in Denner.

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Speaker 2: Shout out to Denner, Shout out to everybody who came out. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure I had a little viral video.

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Speaker 1: You have a bit of a sweat there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean yeah, that was that was an all

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Speaker 2: time too. Miss free throws from Jimmy and I think

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Speaker 2: he did it again in the next game at some points, What.

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Speaker 3: The hell were you like wearing the Gay Davis Lucky

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Speaker 3: shirt underneath?

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Speaker 2: I got to reserve that for football. I can't. I

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Speaker 2: can't use that up on my back. I gotta get

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Speaker 2: somebody totally different total for that. But uh now, if

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Speaker 2: you guys haven't been listening, we're gonna break down pretty

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Speaker 2: much every fantasy relevant player for every team in each

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Speaker 2: division and try to get through it as best we can.

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Speaker 2: So our AFC East and NFC East episodes are up

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Speaker 2: right now here on the Fantasy Flex feed, and were

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Speaker 2: NFC northsode will be out Friday, so stay tuned for that.

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Speaker 2: Let's jump right into the Baltimore ravens Lamar Jackson QB

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Speaker 2: five in ADP. We're using basketball ADP over the last

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Speaker 2: few weeks, about four weeks Lamar's a QB five. I

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Speaker 2: think the interesting thing here, Sean, is that after Greg

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Speaker 2: Roman was essentially the architect of this offense for the

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Speaker 2: entirety of Lamar's career, he's now switching offenses to Todd Munkin.

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Speaker 2: Munkens talking about faster pace, probably less of a fullback,

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Speaker 2: but you know what, are you thinking in terms of

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Speaker 2: kind of balancing out the potential upside of a new

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Speaker 2: pass heavier offense with the dapside of having to learn

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Speaker 2: a new offense for Lamar for the first time in

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Speaker 2: quite a while.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's really the question with him. And you know,

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Speaker 3: Todd Munkin's part of the air Raid coaching treat so

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Speaker 3: they're gonna be pass heavy, and it's pretty clear. You know,

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Speaker 3: they added Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers in the draft. They

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Speaker 3: even added Nelson Aguilar, who's just a depth piece, but

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Speaker 3: you know, the wide receiver depth chart is way better

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Speaker 3: this year than last, so it's pretty clear they're gonna

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Speaker 3: throw the ball more.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: Plus, they just signed Lamar to a two hundred and

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Speaker 3: sixty million dollar deal, so they probably want him just

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Speaker 3: to run less to make sure he stays healthy. But

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Speaker 3: I think we're still going to see him his legs.

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Speaker 3: He's still, you know, one of the top rushing qbs,

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Speaker 3: so there's a chance we see a twenty nineteen sort

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Speaker 3: of QB one season for him, just the combination of

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Speaker 3: increased passing volume and still the rushing upside is there.

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Speaker 3: But his rushing upside probably isn't as high. So I

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Speaker 3: think it makes sense for him to be at QB five.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the top six is really good this year.

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Speaker 3: I mean you could argue justin Fields or Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 3: even like at number four. So I think as of now,

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Speaker 3: I think QB five makes sense, even though you know

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Speaker 3: his rushing upside might not be there as much this year.

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Speaker 2: And I guess the thing with QB five is he's

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Speaker 2: behind Burrow. Any issue with that, because you know that's

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Speaker 2: you know, Lamar, I still think you know the rushing

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Speaker 2: upside if you if you feel like he has passing upside,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's still not. It's not like he's gonna

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Speaker 2: start just becoming like a statue. Any thoughts on on that,

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Speaker 2: because I think that's a pretty interesting you know, either or.

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Speaker 1: Well, we'll get to that.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Joe, we're going next. Yeah, so I think

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow QB four. Well, I will explain that this

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Speaker 3: is a tease. I'll explain why in a bit fair point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So, but I think the thing I noticed with

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Speaker 2: Monkin from a numbers perspective, the average situation of neutral

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Speaker 2: pace rank for his the fourth squads he coordinated was

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Speaker 2: about thirteenth with three in the top eleven Baltimore in

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Speaker 2: the last four years uh thirty to thirty, twenty six,

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Speaker 2: twenty two, So we could see faster pace, and I

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Speaker 2: think we see less full back in the passing game.

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Speaker 2: Recard played on about uh nearly thirty percent of the

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Speaker 2: pass naps, so I think that will go down. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: you know, Lamar top definitely a top six quarterback. I

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Speaker 2: could see somebody like Justin Fields outscoring him. We'll talked

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Speaker 2: about that in the NFC pod. But I also think

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Speaker 2: Lamar has probably little more upside than he's had in

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Speaker 2: these past years, just because of the weapons and because

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Speaker 2: of you know, the potential increase in pace. So let's

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Speaker 2: let's jump to the receivers. Let's start with Let's start

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Speaker 2: with Mark Andrews. Actually, let's go in that way. He's

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Speaker 2: a tight end two I do. I am pretty intrigued

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Speaker 2: by Andrews because I think we were all let down

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Speaker 2: by him last year. But when I looked into the numbers,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't really due to anything in his control. His

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Speaker 2: route participation rate per game actually went up from two

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Speaker 2: years ago eighty four to eighty eight percent. Last year.

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Speaker 2: His targets per route went up from twenty four percent

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Speaker 2: to twenty five percent. It's just that Baltimore wasn't as

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Speaker 2: pass heavy, so his routes per game actually dropped from

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Speaker 2: just under seven to just under twenty nine. So that's

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Speaker 2: really what kind of dinged him. So if the volume

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Speaker 2: is there, he could put up that season as like

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Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey adjacent this year that we wanted him to

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Speaker 2: last year. What do you think about Andrews?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I have him tight end two. I'm right

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Speaker 3: there with you. I think it's a good time to

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Speaker 3: buy low. He's coming off a fairly disappointing season. He

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Speaker 3: was a tight end five, but that that just has

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Speaker 3: to do with these rankings. Just because you're ranked tight

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Speaker 3: end two doesn't mean you're a lock to finish in

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Speaker 3: the top two.

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Speaker 1: Just seem means you're most likely.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I think at this point we assumed that

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Speaker 3: Andrews would probably leap frog Travis kelce by now, but

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Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey is still just elite as ever, so that's

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Speaker 3: why he's still tight end two. But I think Andrews

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Speaker 3: is in Tier two all by himself. I think there's

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Speaker 3: a pretty big drop off from him from the next

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Speaker 3: tier and you know, his target rate could get dinged

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Speaker 3: by all these new wide receiver editions. But like we said,

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Speaker 3: this offense should be more pass heavy, so I think

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Speaker 3: that's gonna to offset it quite a bit. So as

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Speaker 3: long as Andrews is running round over ninety percent of

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Speaker 3: the time, he has massive, massive upside. And I think, yeah,

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Speaker 3: getting him at tight end two seems fair. But again,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's such a tier above the next one

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Speaker 3: that I think he's still worth drafting early.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I'm my bold call was going to

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Speaker 2: be this is the year we wanted from Andrews last

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Speaker 2: year because I just I when I look at the

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Speaker 2: underline numbers, I'm just like, okay, if we just need

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Speaker 2: more volume here, Like he's in the prime of his career.

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Speaker 2: And like I like to say, when you talk about

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Speaker 2: guys like the supporting cast that usually it's it's a

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Speaker 2: hierarchical thing like it, you know, like the guy at

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Speaker 2: the top, Like there's no one here we expect to

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Speaker 2: get twenty five percent targets per route, right, like you know,

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Speaker 2: not Jay Fiers in your one. Beckham hasn't been there

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Speaker 2: in a long time. Bateman was close, but that was

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Speaker 2: because he was kind of the de facto number one receiver,

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Speaker 2: and you know, Andrews still did what he did. So

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Speaker 2: let's let's talk about these guys thoughcause these these are

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Speaker 2: the guys that I struggle with, so the ADPs over

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Speaker 2: the past month, and I'm sure these will be fluctuating,

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Speaker 2: but Rashad Bateman wide receiver forty four, Say Flowers wide

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Speaker 2: receiver fifty one, Odell Beckham wide receiver fifty seven. I

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Speaker 2: feel like there's a positive case for all of them,

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Speaker 2: but there's also a negative, a pretty negative case for

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Speaker 2: all of them because I don't know if all three

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Speaker 2: of these, Like one of these guys is probably gonna

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Speaker 2: beat that, but two of these guys actually may not.

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Speaker 2: So that's I'm a little concerned about this at this point.

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Speaker 2: I think earlier in the offseason I was pretty down

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Speaker 2: on Beckham, who is in the mid forties. His ADP

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Speaker 2: has dropped. So how are you projecting Bateman, Flowers, Beckham here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, It's it's really tough.

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Speaker 3: And this is if you invest in these guys, you

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Speaker 3: just have to invest in the passing. A percentage'll be

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Speaker 3: much higher, which I think it should be, so there

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Speaker 3: could be enough volume to support one or two of

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Speaker 3: these guys, but you know, one of these guys is

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Speaker 3: gonna bust, or maybe two of them, so it's important

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Speaker 3: to get it right. I think the ADPs right now

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Speaker 3: are fair. I think Bateman should be the first one

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Speaker 3: off the board, which he is. You know, he's gonna

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Speaker 3: see more competition for targets with Zay Flowers, Nodell Beckham

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Speaker 3: there obviously, but that could be offset with the team

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Speaker 3: just passing more. And Baman's only twenty three years old.

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Speaker 3: He was a first round pick not that long ago.

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Speaker 1: He did for year three. If he stays.

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Speaker 3: Healthy, he could crush his ADP. So I think he

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Speaker 3: carries probably the highest floor of the trio, and he

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Speaker 3: does carry a pretty decent ceiling. So I think in

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Speaker 3: the forty wide receiver forty five range makes sense if

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Speaker 3: you're going for a high floor play, but I think

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Speaker 3: in just terms of ceiling, I think Flowers probably offers

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Speaker 3: the higher ceiling. You know, he's the first round pick

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Speaker 3: this year out of Boston College. You know, I think

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Speaker 3: he has a pretty wide range of outcomes. He's a

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Speaker 3: smaller wide receiver at five to nine, but he's a

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Speaker 3: solid deep threat like he could do at all, I

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Speaker 3: think the Tyler Lockett Brandon Cooks comps seem fair to me. Like,

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Speaker 3: I think that's the type of receiver he could be.

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Speaker 3: So I think he could have like a Marquis Own

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Speaker 3: type rookie season. To remember, Mark, He's brown, you know,

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Speaker 3: hit the ground running in this offense. So I think

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Speaker 3: he's the worth of fly wide receiver fifty one. That's

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Speaker 3: the time to kind of, you know, bet on upside,

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Speaker 3: and I think Flowers has the most upside, whereas Odell Beckham.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you could probably argue he has the most upside.

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Speaker 3: He was a potential Hall of Fame type wide receiver

201
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Speaker 3: until just being you know, Dell with injury after injury.

202
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Speaker 3: So if he can stay healthy, you know, he's turning

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Speaker 3: thirty one, he has a ton of upside as well.

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Speaker 3: But just based on the past couple of seasons and

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Speaker 3: the fact that he's thirty one, I'm probably shying away.

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Speaker 3: But I would not fault you from liking Odell Beckham

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Speaker 3: the most just because he's the cheapest and obviously he's

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Speaker 3: a very talented receiver. So right now, I still think

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Speaker 3: Jay Flowers is probably the sweet spot for me, just

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Speaker 3: in terms of ADP.

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Speaker 2: Okay, because yeah, I struggle with all these guys. I

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Speaker 2: actually feel like all of them are a little overvalued

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Speaker 2: because right I like because three, because I get that

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Speaker 2: we're going from you know to what was supposed to

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Speaker 2: be a more past sevy offense. But you still have

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Speaker 2: Andrews there. You're not just gonna automatically stop running the

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Speaker 2: ball overnight. This is still the Baltimore Ravens. Uh And yeah,

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Speaker 2: the other thing I'm hearing and this, you know, this

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Speaker 2: is always concerned because I feel like we always forget

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Speaker 2: to like properly factor a guy like this in. But

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Speaker 2: you mentioned Agalar, you know, having a great camp, and

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Speaker 2: there's I've seen beat writers who think that Aglar right

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Speaker 2: now is the starter, like he's starting at one of

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Speaker 2: those spots and like Flowers is gonna have to overtake him.

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Speaker 2: Now Flowers has is dealing with a soft tissue injury,

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Speaker 2: so you know, he hasn't really been able to to,

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Speaker 2: you know fully kind of grasp that role. But that's

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Speaker 2: my concern with like these ADPs right now. It's that

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Speaker 2: there's so much uncertainty. For example, Bateman, Yeah, he's the

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Speaker 2: highest and he probably should be. I love this, You know,

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Speaker 2: he had a twenty three percent target per route rate

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Speaker 2: last year. His yards per route out from one point

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Speaker 2: three and his rookie year to two point four last year,

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Speaker 2: which is very very good, although he's due for some

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Speaker 2: regression in yards after catch. It was over nine last year,

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Speaker 2: so that's how was gonna come down. But it's like

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Speaker 2: okay with Bateman, Yeah, a ton of upside, but probably

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Speaker 2: doesn't replicate last year's underlying metrics. Then you have disp

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Speaker 2: like Flowers, who's a highly talented guy that could overtake them,

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Speaker 2: but you also gave Odell Beckham fourteen million guaranteed. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so he's obviously going to play like over both of them,

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Speaker 2: you know, if they go. You know, like he's probably

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Speaker 2: gonna be considered the top dog in that room already.

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Speaker 2: Now how much does he get on the field. That's

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Speaker 2: uncertainty there. And then Agalar kind of complicates things and

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Speaker 2: then you're still gonna like gadget play for Duvernet as well.

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Speaker 2: So it's like there's a lot going on in this

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Speaker 2: virus is all?

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Speaker 1: This is just really good news for lamar Jo.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I know that this time last year I

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Speaker 3: was setting James Prochet props with you exactly. Now we're

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Speaker 3: talking about Odell back then being like the number free receiver.

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Speaker 3: So again this is the fantastic news from Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 3: And I think, who who would you want to stack?

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Speaker 3: If you're making a basketball best ball stack? Who do

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Speaker 3: you think is the best stack, because I think it

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Speaker 3: might be Odell Beckham because he would correlate with you know,

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Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson having a QB one type season.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I would ideally to be to be honest

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Speaker 2: with you, I would love to get Andrews. It would

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Speaker 2: probably have to be a three four. But out of

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Speaker 2: these receivers, I would.

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Speaker 3: Go like Lamar Andrews stacked with who would.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just for just for because if Aglar's bowling out Dennis,

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Speaker 2: Like remember Derrek Carr had that crazy year. He was

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Speaker 2: throwing like three hundred yards everything. It's like, if Aglar's

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Speaker 2: bowling out then then it like it almost doesn't matter,

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Speaker 2: Like then you know something probably either very right or

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Speaker 2: very wrong. But like if I haven't stuck with Lamar

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Speaker 2: and like, okay, it's going very right.

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Speaker 3: And yeah exactly, and I will step up if any

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Speaker 3: one of these if he is the fourth receiver heading

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Speaker 3: of the season, if any one of these three receivers

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Speaker 3: as time he would step up, so that I think

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Speaker 3: later on, yeah, sure.

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Speaker 1: I think that would that would be a savvy I.

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Speaker 2: Would say I would say Bateman among those three, though,

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Speaker 2: just because I don't trust Beckham's health and his targets

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Speaker 2: per route has been dropping. It was under twenty percent

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one. Uh, and then like you could

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Speaker 2: just see his explosiveness kind of waning. His first three

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Speaker 2: years in the league, his yards after the catch per

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Speaker 2: reception was five point six, his next three years four

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Speaker 2: point one, so it dropped a yard and a half.

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Speaker 2: And then uh, the three years after that, which is

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty twenty to twenty one, and then he didn't

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Speaker 2: play last year down to three. So from five point

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Speaker 2: six to four point one to three, you know, every

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Speaker 2: three years, that's pretty large samples of like consistent decline.

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Speaker 2: So you know, it's it's I think there's questions about

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Speaker 2: his health and his his effectiveness. Flowers is just more

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Speaker 2: so let's get him on the field. Let's make sure

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Speaker 2: he's actually beating out Nelson Agalar I think will yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I you would, but like we're sitting here

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Speaker 2: in June. You know, you can't take it for granted

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Speaker 2: because that's you know, like a lot of these guys,

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Speaker 2: these ADPs get up there and you're like, there's a

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Speaker 2: few guys that I've come across with, you know, like

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Speaker 2: rookies with ADP that are just like he's almost certainly

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Speaker 2: not beating it, Like, yeah.

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Speaker 1: Tagler was just a frigging pain in the ass.

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Speaker 3: He always goes off and at least expect them, and

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Speaker 3: he never does shit when you expect them to go off.

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Speaker 1: So I mean, exactly, here we go again.

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Speaker 2: And let's not forget I am here and that they're

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Speaker 2: still going to be The full back is going to

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Speaker 2: kind of make it like it's going to take a

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Speaker 2: back seat, but the two tight ends are still going

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Speaker 2: to be a prominent part because they are likely entering

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Speaker 2: year too. He was targeted on over twenty percent of

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Speaker 2: his routes last year. You know, I don't think he'll

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Speaker 2: have like a massive season or anything, but he's going

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Speaker 2: as a tight end thirty one. If if something does

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Speaker 2: happen to Mark Andrews, I think, like, yeah, an interesting play,

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Speaker 2: not as interesting as before because they do have some

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Speaker 2: more firepower. But what about the running backs. We got

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Speaker 2: Dobbins at RB twenty and Edwards at RB sixty three.

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Speaker 2: I'm hearing some rumors of the Vikings. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: Vikings the Ravens get my Purple teams, because the Ravens

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Speaker 2: could be looking at a trade for another I don't know,

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Speaker 2: I'm hearing Aaron Jones' name thrown around. I don't think

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Speaker 2: that's realistic, but I mean it's you know, I am

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Speaker 2: hearing kind of running back rumors here, but as of now,

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Speaker 2: it's Dobbins Edwards of Justice Hill top three on the

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Speaker 2: depth chart. What do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, again, you know it's still, you know, early June,

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Speaker 3: so I'm not loading up too much in basketball other

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Speaker 3: than just get as much Alexander Masson as possible.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, be careful about that.

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Speaker 3: In a vacuum, Let's pretend, you know, the Ravens don't

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Speaker 3: trade for an Aaron Jones.

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Speaker 1: I like JK.

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Speaker 3: Dobbins this year. You know, you would think that the

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Speaker 3: Ravens passing war this year would hurt Dobbs, but it

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Speaker 3: might not. You know, we could see Dobbins more involved

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Speaker 3: in the passing game. Just Lamar may opt to scramble

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Speaker 3: less and dump off running backs. You know, Dobbins is

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Speaker 3: more than capable of catching two three passes game. Just

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Speaker 3: the reason he doesn't is because lamar are typically scrambles.

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Speaker 3: So I think he's one of the safer bets in

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Speaker 3: the low end RB two range. Like I was saying,

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Speaker 3: it's definitely a frozen Pond year, and he wasn't one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent for much of last season. You know, he

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Speaker 3: barely came back. He was kind of hobbled when he

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Speaker 3: was in there, and he still managed to finish third

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Speaker 3: out of fifty nine backs and my expected yards per

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Speaker 3: attempt model, and he should be even healthier heading into

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty three. So I think this could be a

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Speaker 3: great season for Dobbins. I remember we were kind of

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Speaker 3: like shying away from him last year because he was

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Speaker 3: banged up entering and then you know, take him the

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Speaker 3: next season. That's kind of what we did with Saquon Barkley,

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Speaker 3: So I kind of see that progression with Dobbins. I

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Speaker 3: think this range makes a ton of sense for him

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Speaker 3: and the Ravens. You know, they're not going to be

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Speaker 3: just full on air raid. They're still going to run

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Speaker 3: the balls. I think Dobbins has plenty of upside in

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Speaker 3: this offense still.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you knows betting unders so I love three

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Speaker 2: hundred and eleven pound fullbacks, but I am kind of

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Speaker 2: on I am kind of a little excited about seeing

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Speaker 2: how this offense would look with a little less fullback

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Speaker 2: because even the running backs Dobbins without a fullback on

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Speaker 2: the field in his career, it's only been twenty four

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Speaker 2: percent of his carries, but six point eight yards per

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Speaker 2: carry without a fullback. So yeah, and then yeah, right,

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Speaker 2: and and uh, Gus Edwards has been slightly better as

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Speaker 2: well without a fullback. But but you know, these Ravens backs,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think they'll be fine, that they got

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Speaker 2: some power to him. But uh, yeah, Gus is there

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Speaker 2: at sixty three. You know, he really has never shown

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Speaker 2: much in the past game. Uh what are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on him?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: So again, he also missed a few games last year

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Speaker 3: due to injury, but he remained efficient. You know, he

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Speaker 3: averaged five yards per carry, something he's done in all

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Speaker 3: four seasons.

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Speaker 1: So he's he's always efficient.

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Speaker 3: But he had zero receptions, so he specifically would be

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Speaker 3: hurt from the Ravens being a more pass heavy attack,

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Speaker 3: and he's probably just not going to be able to

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Speaker 3: provide any value as long as JK. Dobbins is healthy.

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Speaker 3: So well, I do like, you know, attacking the injury

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Speaker 3: away running backs where they can be you know, potential

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Speaker 3: RB two when the starter goes down. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if that's the case with Edwards. I think he'll still

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Speaker 3: be in the RB three flex range even if Dobbins

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Speaker 3: miss his time. And again, I think he does need

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Speaker 3: Dobbins to miss time to offer any value. So he

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Speaker 3: is one of the least intriguing backup running backs in

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Speaker 3: this range specifically. So I'm probably staying away from Gus

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess we have to see. For me,

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Speaker 2: it's just how the ADP kind of shakes out, because

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Speaker 2: if you know, I'm if I like Dobbins and Gusts,

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Speaker 2: I mean, even at sixty three, he's almost free, not

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Speaker 2: quite pretty much. If I can get in a redraft league,

399
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Speaker 2: if I can get the handcuff for a guy and

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Speaker 2: I don't really have any competition for him, I always

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Speaker 2: kind of like those situations, so I can wait until

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Speaker 2: like the last round, almost like a kicker or something,

403
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Speaker 2: and just take the handcuff. But that's that's kind of

404
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 2: a redraft specific thing. Okay, who so, sir, Reka, who

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Speaker 2: do you like for sleepers on the Ravens? Anyone? Uh?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just think save Flowers.

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Speaker 3: I think out of the free receivers, he probably offers

408
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Speaker 3: the most upside and you can get him as the

409
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Speaker 3: second one off the board. So I just think Flowers

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Speaker 3: is probably the top sleeper pick for me.

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Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I don't have anyone. I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: I think everyone's kind of I think everyone's kind of

413
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Speaker 2: properly valued or maybe a little over What about what

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Speaker 2: about Bust?

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Speaker 3: I'll just have to go with Gus Edwards. Again, if

416
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Speaker 3: Dobbins gets hurt, you know that's gonna look silly. But

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Speaker 3: I'd rather have Jalen Warren or Chase Brown in this

418
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Speaker 3: range if we're going, you know, the backup approach. But

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Speaker 3: if they're off the board, then I'll consider Gus. But

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Speaker 3: I think of all the Ravens, he's probably the most overvalued.

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Speaker 2: Yeah for me, it's it's the entire wide receiver corps

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Speaker 2: I like. So I'll kind of clarify it though, I

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Speaker 2: think bait May and Flowers are like a little bit

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Speaker 2: overvalued in redraft, right because I think I think I

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Speaker 2: think they're like Bateman's gonna be on the field. I

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Speaker 2: just he's probably gonna run more lower percentage routes. It's

427
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Speaker 2: gonna be harder to know exactly when he's gonna go off,

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Speaker 2: especially with the more competition. And then Flowers kind of

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Speaker 2: the same thing.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: I just and in Odell. I think he's still I

432
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 2: still think he's gonna bust, just because I don't think

433
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 2: he's as good as he once was and I don't

434
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:31,679
Speaker 2: think he'll be able to stay healthy. But at the

435
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 2: same time, I think he'll get that chance because they

436
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,399
Speaker 2: gave him fourteen mil guaranteed, So he's kind of just

437
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 2: gonna be in there mucking things up for everyone. And

438
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 2: you know, I really don't I don't want to roster

439
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 2: him in besketball because of the miss potential miss games,

440
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 2: but I I, you know, so and so he's actually

441
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 2: probably a better redraft pick. But I think in one

442
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 2: way or another, you know, it's I'm just really gonna

443
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: have to pick it. I'll probably be below the field

444
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: in my exposure to the receivers. I'll probably try to

445
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 2: invest in Lamar and I'm gonna I'm gonna take that,

446
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 2: you know, a little bit of a discount I'm getting

447
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 2: because Andrews had somewhat of a disappointing year last year

448
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: and kind of go that route as far as this

449
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 2: passing game. All right, let's go to the Cincinnati Bengals.

450
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow is the QB four. He was a top

451
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 2: five quarterback in six of sixteen, top eight and ten

452
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 2: of sixteen, only three games outside the top thirteen. And

453
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 2: in the twelve games that Jamar Chase played, Remember Chase

454
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: missed about a month. In the twelve games Jamar Chase played,

455
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: Burrow averaged three and a half more Fantasy points per game,

456
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 2: so he's up to about twenty six. He passed the

457
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 2: ball four more times per game with chasing the lineup

458
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 2: about eighteen yards passing more per game and a third

459
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 2: of a touchdown more for Burrow. So the key is

460
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,479
Speaker 2: kind of keeping Chase healthy, because when you got Chase healthy,

461
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 2: that's one of the best, if not the best, receiving

462
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: cores in the game. What do you think about Burrow

463
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: entering twenty twenty three.

464
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, like it earlier, he's my QB four. And

465
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 3: you could argue that Lamar Jackson and Justin Field to

466
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 3: have a higher ceiling due to the rushing up side.

467
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 3: And you're not wrong, but let's not overlook burrows rushing upside.

468
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 3: He's not exactly Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford back there.

469
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 3: I mean, he had twenty five or more rushing yards

470
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 3: and or a rushing touchdown in half his games last season,

471
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: so he's providing some solid rushing upside. You know, twenty

472
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 3: twenty two, he was returning from an ACL tear, so

473
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 3: that limited his rushing stats.

474
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 1: But he's on twenty twenty one. Well, when he returned right,

475
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 1: Oh oh really.

476
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so you know that limited his rushing stats.

477
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 3: We kind of knew that would happen. But he's obviously,

478
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 3: you know, one hundred percent now so and that was

479
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 3: sort of his appeal entering the league.

480
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:48,719
Speaker 1: He's always been a solid, you know runner.

481
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 3: So not only is he maybe the QB with the

482
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 3: best odds of throwing for fifty or more touchdowns this year,

483
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 3: he's also providing sneaky rushing upside. So I would still

484
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 3: take him over Lamar Jackson and fields. It's also easier

485
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 3: to stack him in bastball. We obviously know who we

486
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 3: should be stacking with, and you know, just given Lamar

487
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 3: and Justin Field's rushing a lot more, they do have

488
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 3: more injury risks, so there is more downside. So I

489
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: think Burrow carries a massive ceiling as well. So that's

490
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 3: why I still have him as a QB fore. But

491
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 3: you know, I can't fault you for taking Jackson er fields,

492
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 3: but I'm sticking with Burrow my top four.

493
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Burrow better in bast ball because I

494
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 2: agree I think he has that high floor. And in

495
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 2: bast ball, yeah, obviously you're aiming for a ceiling, but

496
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,640
Speaker 2: you also need a ceiling with the guy playing the games, right.

497
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: Yeah.

498
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 2: You know, if I draft Lamar and he averages like

499
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 2: three more points than Burrow but misses three more games,

500
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 2: I can deal with that. In redraft, you know, I

501
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: just put somebody else in, whereas in Bastball it's really

502
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: just comes down to the timing and and you know,

503
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 2: kind of the luck of the draw with whoever my backup,

504
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 2: backup or backups are. So yeah, I think Burrow obviously

505
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 2: has the cases. A top five quarterback. Jamar Chase is

506
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 2: going as a wide receive two. He had five top

507
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 2: seven finishes last year in the top thirty and nine

508
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: out of twelve. The lowest he ever finished was wide

509
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 2: receiver forty four, So high ceiling, high floor guy. Anything

510
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 2: on him, I mean.

511
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 3: What's there to say about this guy? This sky is

512
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 3: still the limit for him entering year three. So I

513
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 3: think wide receiver two makes sense. I would draft him

514
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 3: over Cooper Cup and Tyra Hill, especially when just using

515
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 3: quarterback as a tiebreaker, like give me Joe Burrow over

516
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 3: you know, Matthew Stafford. The Rams could be a disaster

517
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 3: this year, you know, to as you know, scary concussion history.

518
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,959
Speaker 3: So that kind of shows me away from Tyreek at

519
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 3: number two. So I think Chase is the no brainer

520
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 3: pick here at wide receiver two.

521
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and wide receiver, I mean it does kind of

522
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 2: drop off like earlier than I remember in previous drafts.

523
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 2: Like I think the market is getting a little bit

524
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 2: more efficient because I don't think the ground quarterback is

525
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 2: as viable anymore. I think you do need It's like

526
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 2: almost like the market is five. We gotten to the

527
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 2: point where as I'm drafting, I tend to draft my

528
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 2: starting lineup, like you know how that you can be

529
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: frowned upon. It's like, no, you need to draft an

530
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 2: extra running back and extra receiver for it's like now

531
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 2: it almost seems like the overall ADP's are a lot more,

532
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 2: are a lot sharper, So you can't just like like

533
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 2: ignore quarterback or ignore tight end or like you know,

534
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 2: think you're just gonna stack up on mid round receivers

535
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 2: like you kind of gotta you kind of gotta tripe.

536
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: What comes when you talk about the wide receiver drop off?

537
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 3: Are you talking about like number six? Are you talking

538
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: about like forty like.

539
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: I'm talking about after after you go through like those

540
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 2: wide receiver ones, and then there's like a you know,

541
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 2: there's like a bunch of wide receiver twos, but then

542
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 2: it kind of devolves into like wide receiver four territory

543
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: really quickly from like like like you know, it's like

544
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 2: you go from like okay, I got Terry mclaarren, and

545
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: then you wait a couple of rounds and it's like

546
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 2: am I gonna take juju? Like? Who am I gonna take?

547
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 2: Like Jackson Smith's. You know, it's like a lot of

548
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: guys that just have nothing, like even Zay Flowers a

549
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 2: lot of times will still go in like the top

550
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: one hundred at wide receiver fifty one.

551
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you're saying the wide receiver three, wide receiver four.

552
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, So like I like to I like to have

553
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 2: like that top like because it's harder to, I think,

554
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 2: to find a guy in that like like that wide

555
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 2: receiver two three tier that's necessarily going to break through

556
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 2: now just because there's just so many of these talented

557
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: guys at the top. You're really just kind of banking

558
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 2: on an injury at this point. But like if Chase

559
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 2: and and and Jefferson and all those guys, I mean,

560
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: Devonte Adam's like, why receiver eight this year? Like that's

561
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like there's a lot of talent.

562
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's when it comes to just like in

563
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 3: season redraft leagues, like it's easier to fight an RB

564
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: one in season. You can't really find an rb uh

565
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 3: wide receiver one in season because running back is so

566
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 3: fragile that it does lend to like, you know, striking

567
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:42,959
Speaker 3: gold in season.

568
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think the value is actually like

569
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 2: the pond might be like thawing out, because I feel

570
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 2: like the value is actually in the running back two tier.

571
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 2: And I'll talk about mixing in a minute, but T

572
00:27:54,560 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 2: Higgins is the wide receiver twelve. Now, if anyone tries

573
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 2: to tell you that Higgins did not play well with

574
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase because he averaged only fifty five yards a game,

575
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 2: they didn't do their homework because T. Higgins left three

576
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 2: of those games yea without barely playing any snaps. So

577
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 2: when you kind of take those games out, Higgins was

578
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 2: right around his normal season averages, which is still a

579
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 2: little better without but his averages were like what he

580
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 2: did to finish wide receiver twelve even with Chase in

581
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 2: the lineup. Any thoughts on TEA. I know we usually

582
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: love T Higgins like every week, h he's not him.

583
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously sign me up for him.

584
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 3: If there's any offense that can support two wide receiver ones,

585
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 3: it's this Bengals team and the Dolphins obviously. But like

586
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 3: you said, Higgins missed a few games last year due

587
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 3: to entry. He had that one game where he tweaked

588
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 3: something in pregame warm ups and then he played one

589
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 3: snap and that was it. So that really excuses per

590
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 3: game averages. And he's still wide receiver eleven in points

591
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 3: per game. So I think we still haven't seen the.

592
00:28:58,280 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: Best of T.

593
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: Higgins yet, So I do like him at wide receiver twelve.

594
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: What about Ty Boyd? He's a wide receiver fifty five.

595
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 2: I believe he's up for a new contract soon, so

596
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're even intending on bringing him

597
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: back long term. But I noticed his targets per route

598
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 2: Ray has been dipping for four straight years seventeen percent,

599
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: fourteen percent last year. I mean it makes sense. And

600
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 2: you got Chasing and Higgin's there. What are your thoughts

601
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 2: on T Boyd?

602
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean he'd probably offers some value here just

603
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 3: in terms of his floor. You know, he's the number

604
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 3: three receiver in arguably the most potent offense in the league,

605
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 3: so he offers some value there. But you know, they

606
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 3: just drafted Charlie Jones, who's a slaw receiver, so I

607
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 3: think he he's not gonna eat it in a Jamar

608
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 3: Chase or T Higgins snaps. He could sniffing away some

609
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 3: snaps from Boyd. Maybe they see what they have, But

610
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: just Boyd, like you said, like he's been trending down,

611
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 3: so I don't know if the upside is there. And

612
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 3: he didn't provide much of a boost when Chaser Higgins

613
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 3: right in the lineup last year, so I don't know

614
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 3: if it's that compelling to take him here. Again, if

615
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: you're in a league that starts five or six wide receivers,

616
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 3: I'm in a couple of leagues like that. He makes

617
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 3: a lot more sense because he offers a high floor.

618
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 3: But in redraft and best ball, I'm probably staying away

619
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 3: in this range just because I don't, you know, I

620
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 3: don't think he offers a high enough ceiling to take care.

621
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the ceiling's like really not there anymore with his

622
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: efficiency declining a bit, and I mean he had some

623
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: decent touchdown luck last year even for being you know,

624
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 2: a slot receiver with a somewhat low a dot. But yeah,

625
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: I think this is you know, wide receiver fifty five

626
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 2: is is not really much you could do with that,

627
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 2: and like invest, like you said, you're in a deeper

628
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 2: league and you just need a kind of short points.

629
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 2: If not, I'm I'd rather go for a guy that

630
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: has more upside to get to that, you know, number

631
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 2: number one in the in the pecking order. There are

632
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 2: just like a rookie who we haven't you know, it's

633
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: the unknown because like Ti Wood is such a known

634
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 2: quantity at this point. So but IRV Smith is here now.

635
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: He's uh, he's the cj U Soma aka the Hayden

636
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 2: Hurst of this year for the Bengals, at least they

637
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 2: want him to be. Only got four hundred kay guaranteed,

638
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 2: so you know, not a huge investment, but it could

639
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 2: be a shrewd one if if they can get him

640
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 2: to stay healthy. The Cincinnati starting tight end did finish

641
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: in the top twenty uh in ten of sixteen sixty

642
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 2: three percent of the time. So Smith is tight end

643
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: twenty one. I've seen him a little higher in some

644
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: other spots, but I mean he should be able to

645
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 2: meet or exceed this ADP if he stays healthy. Is

646
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 2: that kind of your thought with him?

647
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And if your call like Hayden Hurst is

648
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 3: my most roster team ye last year this time last

649
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 3: year's ADP was around like tight end thirty thirty five

650
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 3: and IRV Smith he's being brought in to replace that role.

651
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 3: And you know he's been held back due to injury

652
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 3: to start his career. But he's still young, he's twenty four,

653
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 3: still talented. I mean, he was a second round pick,

654
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 3: so as long as he stays healthy, he should easily

655
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 3: post you know, tight end two numbers in this offense

656
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 3: with tight end one upside and if any of the

657
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 3: top three receivers missed time, he's going to move up

658
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 3: in the target pecking order. We saw that with Hayden

659
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 3: Hurst last year, so he has built an upside there.

660
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 3: So hopefully he can stay healthy this year. Knock on wood,

661
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 3: but I think he would clear this ADP if he does.

662
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think him not being healthy would probably

663
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 2: be the best case scenario for a guy with Tyra Boyd,

664
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: because yeah, you know, then Boyd becomes, you know, that

665
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 2: the true third target, whereas I think Hurst actually was

666
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,959
Speaker 2: targeted on a per route basis more than Boyd last season,

667
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 2: which you know kind of contributed to boyd up and

668
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 2: down season. But let's talk about these running backs. So

669
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: they drafted Chase Brown in the fifth round out of

670
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 2: Illinois and they let samaj pe Ryn go, so you

671
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: know there's that kind of p Ryn role or that

672
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 2: you know, RB two roll open for Brown. You also

673
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 2: got Joe Mixon still here. There's a lot of rumors,

674
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 2: you know, could he be on the way out. Looks

675
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 2: like they're just gonna kind of roll with it for

676
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 2: for at least another year. So what are your thoughts

677
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: on the two backs here?

678
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Joe Mixon's ADP is around where is it now?

679
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 2: Eighteen eighteen, and then Brown is sixty.

680
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, so, I mean Mixon was dealing with those

681
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 3: legal issues and the chances of getting cut by the

682
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 3: Bengals before the season, but as of now, neither look

683
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 3: likely to.

684
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 1: Prevent him from being a Bengals.

685
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 3: You know, the Bengals lead back for another season, So

686
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 3: I think RB eighteen is a steal. This isn't as

687
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 3: big of a steal as Alexander Madison RB thirty for

688
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 3: the past month, but it's still a steal. The Bengals

689
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 3: also let samaj p Ryan go, so there's a chance

690
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 3: Mixing could see a bigger workload, especially in the passing game.

691
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 3: So he's a clear value play at RB eighteen right now.

692
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 3: And in terms of his backup, I love his backup

693
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 3: as well. I was surprised Chase Brown went in the

694
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 3: fifth round and this is the great landing spot for

695
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 3: him too. For some reason, watching him in college, he

696
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 3: reminded me of if you remember the old school Vikings

697
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 3: Robert Smith.

698
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 2: Oh hell yeah, he's a pretty fast guy.

699
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 1: He's a fast back, but he could take a big hit.

700
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 3: If you watch some film, he'll take a massive hit,

701
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 3: bounce off and keep running.

702
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 1: That's that's a rare blend.

703
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 3: So he has some sneaky power and he's a pretty

704
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: good pass catcher, so he has a He has the

705
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,479
Speaker 3: potential to be an above average pass blocker, which could

706
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 3: get him on the field as a rookie and take

707
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 3: over that samaj P Ryan roll right away. And you know,

708
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 3: if Joe Mixon word to miss time, I think he

709
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 3: has RB two upside for sure. I think he can

710
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 3: handle a full workload. So I just love him at

711
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 3: this price. Again, this is why I was saying I

712
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 3: was passing on Gus Edwards because if a back like

713
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 3: Chase Brown is available in the sixties, sign me up

714
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 3: for that. He has a ton of upside and there's

715
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 3: a chance he could carve out a small JP Ryan

716
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 3: type of role even when Mixon is healthy.

717
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 2: It seems like early drafters are head your bets a

718
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 2: little because I saw that Travion Williams, the you know,

719
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: been there for a couple of years now, a few years.

720
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 2: He's RB seventy one. So there are always some people

721
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,879
Speaker 2: that think that that maybe Williams emerges as the back

722
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 2: of any any thoughts on him. I mean, I think

723
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 2: it's gonna be Brown. I think Brown's imre towned guy.

724
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: But you know it's eleven spots, so I guess it's

725
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 2: where it's always talking about.

726
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, Like there's a chance, just given the

727
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 3: Trayvon's been there longer, he doesn't have as good a

728
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 3: draft pedigree, pedigree. I don't think he's as good as

729
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 3: Chase Brown, but there's a chance. That's why, like you said,

730
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 3: it's worth talking about. This is something that I'm not

731
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 3: saying it's a lock that Chase Brown will be the backup.

732
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 1: This is something will have to monitor.

733
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 3: But as far as I can tell, as far as

734
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 3: I think Chase Brown will be the backup. So that's

735
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 3: why he's the only one I'm targeting right now. But again,

736
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,280
Speaker 3: this is where mid early June right now, so anything

737
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 3: can change, and it wouldn't shock me if Trayvon has

738
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 3: a good camp or something ends up being the backup.

739
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 1: This is definitely something we've got him honor.

740
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I for me, I love Joe Mixon. I mean

741
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 2: you kind of alluded to it, but I think I

742
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 2: think this guy could be a legit, you know, top

743
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 2: eight running back. And the reason I think that is

744
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: because last year he was the RB seven in half

745
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 2: PPR points a game among the running backs with the

746
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 2: minimum of eight games played. Oh and he was RB

747
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: six in PPR so in points for games. So, like

748
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 2: you know, now you take the guy who's taking the

749
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 2: most snaps from him, p Ryan, you replace him with

750
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 2: a rookie who, yeah, he's probably more talented, but you

751
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,879
Speaker 2: know he's also a rookie. And this is a veteran

752
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: team with Super Bowl aspirations who you know took mixing

753
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 2: off the field for pass blocking at times, but I

754
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,439
Speaker 2: don't know, you know, like you also, what's the guy

755
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 2: Chris Evans? You know, there was a lot of hype

756
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 2: for him, and you know it never happened for him.

757
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: So I think there's a good chance that Mixon's usage

758
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 2: from last year is his floor. He had about fifteen

759
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 2: carries a game last year, but I think he could

760
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 2: go back to that. Twenty twenty one, he was eight

761
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 2: over eighteen carries a game. Now he's getting older, maybe

762
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 2: he's not as efficient, but in this offense, you know,

763
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 2: you don't need to be that efficient, especially when you're

764
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 2: getting his role. So I think RB eighteen is I

765
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 2: think Mix is being drafted at his floor. You know,

766
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 2: he's not He doesn't look like he's going to be

767
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: cut at all. And at the same time, you know,

768
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: if it doesn't look like the Bengals are going to

769
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 2: bring in anybody else either. So like Mix is in

770
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 2: this spot where he has this upside to be like

771
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 2: eighty five percent snap guy, and the downside I think

772
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 2: is just what he was last year when he's still

773
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 2: a very valuable running back.

774
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,320
Speaker 3: So, yeah, he only scored seven touchdowns on the ground

775
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:55,360
Speaker 3: in this offense. He has obviously double digit touch on upside.

776
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 2: Oh no, he has actually he has what is it, one, two, three, four?

777
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 2: He has five touchdown ups I believe he scored five

778
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 2: and again he.

779
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 3: Almost scored ten touchdowns in one game. Yeah, so I mean,

780
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 3: just yeah, good grief, eighteen.

781
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me?

782
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 3: The market's very efficient now, but this is a case

783
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: where it's not.

784
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, like this is the time when listen, a lot

785
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: of people, a lot of adp is is. You know,

786
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 2: there's a lot of people that are that you know,

787
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 2: are drafting now, that are that really are football nerds

788
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 2: like ourselves. But what comes with that is that we

789
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 2: get really hyped about the young guys and new toys.

790
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 2: You know, the guys were drafted in Dynasty, the rookies

791
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 2: that we haven't been able to draft before, and like

792
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 2: some of the you know, the demises of some of

793
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 2: these veteran players is like premature. It's like he's Joe Mixon,

794
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 2: you know, is he is he at that age where yeah,

795
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 2: we're probably only going to get you know, one or

796
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 2: two more years out of him. Sure, but look at

797
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 2: the offenses in and look at the competition he has

798
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: for work. Yeah, I think I think that's he's a

799
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 2: great value play because not only can you know, not

800
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,959
Speaker 2: only is he being drafted as far, but he's likely

801
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 2: to probably be quote through to an RB one than

802
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: an RB two. So if you want to kind of go,

803
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 2: you know, stud tight end early in the draft, or

804
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 2: you know, take a top quarterback or something, I think

805
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: mixing is a very good kind of contingency plan if

806
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 2: you're going to kind of fade running back in those

807
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 2: first couple of rounds. So, yeah, love, love me some

808
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 2: Joe Mixon. That is my uh sleeper. What about you?

809
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, obviously Joe Mixon And you know piggybacking that Chase Brown.

810
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 3: I just think Chase Brown has a ton of upside.

811
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: We'll see if he beats out Trayon. I'm betting on it.

812
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 3: So I just think investing in both running backs right

813
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 3: now is the way to go.

814
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and like Irv Smith, to a Wesser extent, is

815
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 2: a sleeper, but like it's it's it's all about this

816
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 2: the health with him, so you know, it's like it's

817
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 2: kind of like a NACAU. Yeah, exactly two bad.

818
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 3: He's not like you know, low twenties or high twenties

819
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 3: or something like that.

820
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 1: But yeah, his ADP is pretty sharp.

821
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, like if you're in a two tight end league

822
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 2: and you can get him like outside of the in

823
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 2: twenty four or something like that, like, sure, go ahead,

824
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 2: but I've seen him he's I've seen him go in

825
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 2: the top one fifty now, which I mean, yeah, you're

826
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 2: not really going to do much better than that.

827
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 1: What about for Bust, Well, bust is pretty harsh.

828
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 3: I think Tyler Boyd offers a pretty high floor where

829
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 3: he's going. But again, that's the range at wide receiver

830
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 3: where I'm betting on upside. And we didn't really talk

831
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 3: about him but I think, you know, Charlie Jones put

832
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 3: in Press as a rookie, so you know Boyd has

833
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 3: a maybe a lower floor just given the potential competition

834
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 3: now in the slot. So I just think where he's

835
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 3: being drafted, I want.

836
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 1: To invest in all of Bengals.

837
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 3: The one player I probably wouldn't take a ADP right

838
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 3: now is Tyler Boyd.

839
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and like I said, I think a lot of

840
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 2: it depends on Smith because I think if if Smith

841
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: isn't healthy, they could also go more for wide. Remember

842
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: Irwin had a lot of success, you know, kind of

843
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: pinch hitting.

844
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not like they're gonna plug Drew Sample or

845
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 3: Devin Asiassi in the pass catching role. So it'll be

846
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 3: wide receiver heavy if IRV Smith goes down.

847
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I don't have any bus bus Like, I

848
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: think Boyd is still fairly valued and this offense has

849
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,399
Speaker 2: enough upside, so yeah, I don't have anyone that sticks out.

850
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 2: Let's go to Cleveland Browns. Deshaun Watson QB nine. I'm

851
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 2: starting to like Deshaun Watson more and more from from

852
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: a fantasy perspective. That is, for y'all, come for me.

853
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: But so here here's a crazy. There is an interesting

854
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 2: stat that I found Watson throwing to Cooper, People's Jones, Nadjoku,

855
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 2: and Nick Chubb, so essentially the you know, the core

856
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 2: of who's going to be there this year. He had

857
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 2: one hundred eleven pass attempts last year, seven point eight

858
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 2: yards per attempt to those to those four guys, and

859
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 2: a six point three percent touchdown rate. Deshaun Watson was

860
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson of old, throwing to the guys that are

861
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 2: gonna be there this year. To everyone else four yards

862
00:41:56,040 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 2: in attempt, no touchdowns. So they did Elijah More, They

863
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 2: drafted Cedric Tilman, they added Marchi's Goodwin. If you know,

864
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: for some reason Tilman or More doesn't work out, Goodwin's

865
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 2: a pretty you know, add some some explosiveness. Uh. And

866
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: and they even not that I think they're gonna play

867
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 2: more type, more multi tight ends. But they even got

868
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 2: Jordan Nakens, Watson's old friend who had success with back

869
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 2: in Houston. And they still got Bryant, who restructured, so

870
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 2: they got like three pass catching tight ends. They added

871
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 2: a much better wide receiver three and potentially and a

872
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:35,240
Speaker 2: much better wide receiver four, and he was Deshaun Watson

873
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 2: to the other guys that are going to be getting

874
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,720
Speaker 2: the majority of the target. So I like Deshaun Watson

875
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 2: this year a QB nine. Now he's going at QB nine,

876
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: but he's going at pick eighty seven. Well, Herbert and Lawrence,

877
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 2: who are seven and eight or in a lot of spots,

878
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 2: are going like pick fifty and pick sixty three. So

879
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 2: I think there's actually some massive value, maybe not in

880
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:59,240
Speaker 2: the pecking order at quarterback, but although I would consider

881
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 2: taking Watson over a guy like Trevor Lawrence because I

882
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 2: think there's a more rushing upside. But I just think

883
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 2: I just think he's going a couple of rounds too late.

884
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 2: I think he should be kind of sneaking up there.

885
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: But but what do you think?

886
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, was that an anti David Bell take earlier?

887
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: Who who was he sucking to?

888
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 2: Uh? I don't have those? Oh yeah, I do have

889
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:21,280
Speaker 2: any So David Bell, I think Woods was there? Okay,

890
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,840
Speaker 2: all the backup tight ends, even Kareem Hunt, all the

891
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: other receipt was it Schwartz all those guys to the

892
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 2: core guys, to the core guys, Well, they're gonna be there.

893
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 2: He was Deshaun Watson.

894
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's an interesting stat And you know, we

895
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 3: we figured he would have some RUSS last year, but.

896
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 1: He was really bad.

897
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, last year all things considered, but have to imagine

898
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 3: he bounces back this year. He's gonna have a full

899
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 3: offseason working with the team, knowing he's starting Week one,

900
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 3: so I think that's gonna help. They brought in, you know,

901
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 3: Elijah Moore. There's a chance that they bring in DeAndre Hopkins.

902
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 3: I believe he's still the favorite. Yeah, the land there,

903
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 3: so I mean, getting Deshaun Watson in a KB nine

904
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: if he has DeAndre Hopkins there is massive so you

905
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 3: know he's gonna be turning twenty eight. I still think

906
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 3: he carries you know, the rushing upside you're talking about,

907
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,280
Speaker 3: So I think he makes sense at QB nine. But again,

908
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 3: like there could be some hidden value there if they

909
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 3: do land his former teammate in DeAndre Hopkins.

910
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and to be correct, I just think they already

911
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 2: did enough. I mean, I think Hopkins would be gravy,

912
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 2: but I think I don't know if I trust those odds.

913
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 2: I just think no one really knows at this point.

914
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 2: And because of the connection with Houston, Yeah, that that's

915
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 2: kind of where the book makers that are sloting him

916
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 2: in a MARII Cooper wide receiver eighteen. Uh, he was

917
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 2: about a yard per target better with with Watson, you know,

918
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 2: last year than Bersett. But Bersett played pretty well a

919
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,839
Speaker 2: little more boomer bus was Cooper. The completion the catch

920
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:51,800
Speaker 2: rate went down a fifty four percent compar to sixty

921
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: one percent with Persett. But wide receiver eighteen, I think

922
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 2: last year he was going around wide receiver like twenty

923
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 2: nine thirty, So he has jumped up quite a bit

924
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 2: and he is this is what his age thirty season no, no, No,

925
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 2: twenty nine is still like twenty eight Cooper really let

926
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 2: me see.

927
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 3: Oh wow, he started pretty young, so he still did

928
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 3: it's still tail end of his prime.

929
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: I think you know you would still say he's.

930
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 2: Yeah twenty nine, you're right, yeah, yeah, So what are

931
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 2: your thoughts to him?

932
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: Like what do you Yeah?

933
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that you know, like I mentioned

934
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 3: earlier with the DeAndre Hopkins potential signing, I don't factor

935
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 3: that into my projections right now. So Cooper is my

936
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 3: wires date eighteen right now, that's his ADP.

937
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: So I'm in line.

938
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 3: So just that chance, I would say you know what,

939
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 3: twenty thirty percent chance Hopkins goes there, you have to

940
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,840
Speaker 3: factor then. But in the vacuum, I still like Cooper.

941
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:50,879
Speaker 3: You know, we just said he's still in the tail

942
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 3: end of his prime. He's not quite thirty yet. Last

943
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 3: year he had thirty nine percent of his team air yards,

944
00:45:57,239 --> 00:46:01,840
Speaker 3: sixth highest. It was such a you know, hop heavy

945
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 3: offense last year. So I think adding you know, target

946
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 3: competition with Elijah Moore, potentially Cedric Tillman, I'm not too

947
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 3: worried about him, could ding Cooper a little bit, but again,

948
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: he's gonna be the alphin this offense. Having a full

949
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 3: season with Deshaun Watson should help. You mentioned his ADP

950
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 3: last year is wide receiver twenty and I think partially

951
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:23,919
Speaker 3: because we knew Jacoby Brissette was starting.

952
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, half the season, so I think that

953
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: was part of it.

954
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,439
Speaker 3: So just getting a full potentially a full season of

955
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 3: you know, going back to his prime Deshaun Watson is

956
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 3: massive for Cooper, so I would still I would invest

957
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,879
Speaker 3: him wide receiver eighteen, but just be careful because if

958
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 3: if they do Land Hopkins, his ADP will probably fall

959
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 3: closer to like wide receiver twenty five.

960
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: So just something you know, to watch out for.

961
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, and uh, like Dad, there's certainly some danger there

962
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 2: and like he's being taken over some some some really

963
00:46:56,960 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 2: talented other receivers. So yeah, maybe I would like to

964
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 2: kind of make sure that situation sorts itself out before

965
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 2: investing him at that price. Then we have Elijah Moore

966
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 2: at wide receiver forty eight and DPJ at what Donovan

967
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 2: Peoples Jones at wide receiver sixty three more I was

968
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 2: you know, I always love the Zach Wilson splits because

969
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 2: with wilson career numbers. Now, with Wilson forty seven percent

970
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 2: catch rate, just over five yards of target and a

971
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 2: touchdown on under two percent of his targets, with all

972
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 2: other quarterbacks that have thrown in passes which aren't even

973
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: that great but just better than Zach Wilson, the completion

974
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 2: rate goes from forty seven to sixty four percent, the

975
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 2: yards per target goes from five point four to eight

976
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:46,919
Speaker 2: point two, and the touchdown rate goes from one point

977
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 2: six to six point three, so it be quadruples. So

978
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,879
Speaker 2: this could be very good for Elijah Moore, and as

979
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 2: I mentioned, I think it's also good for Watson kind

980
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 2: of getting somebody in there along with that core four

981
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 2: and then DPG. I mean, I think he might be

982
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 2: he would be the guy that would be ding the

983
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: most by just more coming in uh and Tilman being

984
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 2: drafted and even Aikins because a lot of his success

985
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 2: was it was more volume driven. The targets per route

986
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 2: was still around seventeen, but he was out there for

987
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 2: like over ninety percent of the routes. His yards per

988
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 2: route getting changed from the year before, So I could

989
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 2: see DPJ kind of getting squeezed and his value kind

990
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 2: of going down maybe as a season progresses. But what

991
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:33,839
Speaker 2: do you think about the supporting cast at wide receiver here?

992
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:35,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Elijah Moore.

993
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 3: I love the talent still, I think, you know, last

994
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 3: year is such a disaster. I was high on him.

995
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 3: I was high on him entering the league. So I

996
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 3: think the change of scenery should help, you know, the

997
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,359
Speaker 3: Browns only he was eleven person hel fifty five percent

998
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 3: of the time last year, which was seventeenth, so right

999
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 3: around lane average. Have to imagine they increased that with Monell.

1000
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's the plan. They've been saying that for

1001
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,280
Speaker 2: a while now, and they want to open it up.

1002
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 3: Exactly, and he's doing well OTAs. I mean, the ADP

1003
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 3: seems a bit high. You're really have to bet on

1004
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 3: more N Watson having a bounce back season, so there's

1005
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 3: a little bit of risk there again, the looming DeAndre

1006
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:12,360
Speaker 3: Hopkins risk.

1007
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 1: But I think that in this range I.

1008
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 3: Would still rather have a rookula like Quinton Johnson Jordan

1009
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 3: Addison if he falls that far Za Flowers, but I

1010
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 3: think more will provide a high flour So I think

1011
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 3: wide receiver forty nine, I can get behind that, But

1012
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 3: I'm just projecting him a little bit lower. So he's

1013
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 3: he's a guy that I'm kind of shying away from

1014
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:37,839
Speaker 3: UH for now, even though I love the talent.

1015
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 2: Yeah for me. For for me, it's I'm shining a

1016
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 2: little further away from DPG even though he's lower, just

1017
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 2: because number one Tillman is more of a one for

1018
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 2: one replacement for DPJ, and that was, you know, an

1019
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 2: early third round pick with UH, you know, pretty pretty

1020
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 2: decent speed, pretty decent vertical chops. And then also the Hopkins,

1021
00:49:57,400 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 2: you know, even the flirtation, you know, he tells me,

1022
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 2: you know that would that that would squeeze DPJ because

1023
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:06,320
Speaker 2: you have to Cooper on the outside, Hopkins on the outside,

1024
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 2: and you probably do more in a slot. So DPJ

1025
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 2: could go from like a ninety percent snap guy to

1026
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 2: like a fourth receiver pretty quickly. So he's kind of

1027
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 2: getting pushed in the you know, could get squeezed in

1028
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: a multitude of ways. And also you know when they

1029
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 2: do go to two wide, you know Elijah Moore, you know,

1030
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 2: we think of him as a slot now, but Elijah

1031
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 2: Moore has played a lot of wide wide snaps in

1032
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 2: his career, more than he's played in the slot. So

1033
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 2: like if more is if more does kind of exceed expectations,

1034
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 2: DPJ could still become you know what, he's being kind

1035
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 2: of ranked as, but like that true, you know, like

1036
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 2: third really fourth option, because you also have Najoku, who's

1037
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 2: a tight end ten. Any any thoughts onnder Jokuho? He's

1038
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 2: tight end ten. I also sly people are drafting Aikens

1039
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 2: at thirty seven, which I thought was thought to be

1040
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:54,600
Speaker 2: very got one point in about one point seven mile

1041
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 2: guaranteed and and Bryant also restructured for about the same amount.

1042
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: But Jordan Nakansa ain't ain't no thirty seven or less

1043
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 2: than Nidjoku gets hurt. But any thoughts on Da Joko

1044
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:07,359
Speaker 2: at ten?

1045
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, I mean Joku we've we've always known he's

1046
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:14,400
Speaker 3: he carries tight end one upside, but he finally had,

1047
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 3: you know, last season to be the true number one

1048
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 3: tight end and he was tight end ten in points

1049
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 3: per game. He ran over eighty percent routes run rate

1050
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 3: in eight of fourteen games, which is super sweet. And

1051
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 3: Watson returning the forum would be massive for Djoku. So

1052
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 3: I think he has a ton of upside still in

1053
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 3: this offense. Even if they were to sign DeAndre Hopkins,

1054
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 3: I don't think you would impact Djoku too much.

1055
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 1: He doesn't rely on a ton of volume. You know,

1056
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 1: he's just explosive.

1057
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 3: He'll get you know, long catches, touchdowns, things like that.

1058
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 3: So I don't think Hopkins woulding him too much. So

1059
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,359
Speaker 3: I do like Joku in this tight end ten range

1060
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 3: just because I think he has massive upside.

1061
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like him better in best ball because I like,

1062
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:57,360
Speaker 2: I think it is gonna be a little harder to project,

1063
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 2: and also, like I you know, there is still Aikens

1064
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 2: and Bryant on this roster, so I know they want

1065
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 2: to go more three wide, So you know, I hope

1066
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 2: they don't say, oh, we want to make sure the

1067
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 2: joker doesn't get hurt, and they like bump him down

1068
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 2: a little bit. So there is some downside, but yeah,

1069
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 2: best ball especially, I think he does carry a ton

1070
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 2: of upside, a double digit touchdown upside. Nick Chubb, no

1071
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt. As of now, we don't, you know. I mean,

1072
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:25,359
Speaker 2: we've heard rumors about the Browns maybe acquiring somebody else,

1073
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 2: maybe a Zeke or somebody like that, but as of

1074
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: right now, it's Nick Chubb's backfield at RB seven, and

1075
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:32,960
Speaker 2: then it looks like the backup is going to be

1076
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: a second year man, Jerome Ford of a fifth rounder

1077
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:39,760
Speaker 2: out of Cincinnati last year, who is pretty fast thoughts

1078
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 2: on a backfield.

1079
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Chubb obviously remains, you know, one of the

1080
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 3: best pure runners in the game, fifth street season with

1081
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 3: over five yards per rush. Hopefully your models factoring in

1082
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 3: by now, Oh yeah, yeah, him and Aaron Jones, baby, yeah, yeah,

1083
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 3: Aaron Jones as well. So despite Kaream Hunt being healthy

1084
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 3: all seventeen games last year, Tubble is much more of

1085
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 3: a workhorse than anticipated. So you know, with Hunt out

1086
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 3: of the picture, we could see Chubb and an even

1087
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 3: bigger workload this year. We'll talk about Ford in a bit,

1088
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:17,279
Speaker 3: but I think Chubble have you know, big workload out

1089
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 3: of the gate. So RB seven sounds about right, just

1090
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 3: because just the last the lack of pass catching up

1091
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,399
Speaker 3: side prevents him from being like a true top three

1092
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 3: type of back, but he probably has the highest floor

1093
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 3: of any back in this range. So again, just Nick Chubb,

1094
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 3: and that RB seven range sounds about right just his

1095
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 3: his upside is gonna be limited because he does he's

1096
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 3: not as involved in the passing game.

1097
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:45,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean yes, but also maybe not as many

1098
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 2: as most because I mean, like Chubb has always been splitting,

1099
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 2: like he's really only had what I think one year

1100
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:54,280
Speaker 2: where he's gotten like that true workhorse role. They've always

1101
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 2: kind of held him in check. And this year, I

1102
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,800
Speaker 2: mean last year, like you mentioned it, Hunts stay healthy,

1103
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 2: Chub stay healthy. So they both played all, you know,

1104
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 2: all the games, and Chubb had fifty six percent of

1105
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 2: the snaps, seventeen point eight carries, two point two targets

1106
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:13,960
Speaker 2: and one point six catches. So like if he just

1107
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 2: gets to like sixty sixty five seven, like he had

1108
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 2: twenty plus touch upside every single weeks.

1109
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 1: Uh.

1110
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 2: And if he like with that efficiency and and and

1111
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 2: the fact that this defense is looks like to be improved,

1112
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 2: Watson should be better. Yeah. I have no problems taking

1113
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 2: taking Nick Chubb here exactly. It's yeah, I feel fine.

1114
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 2: The floor so high. But yeah, Ford, he's improving. RB

1115
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 2: fifty seven. Uh, you know, mostly a kick return of

1116
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 2: last year. But you know they had de Janis Johnson go.

1117
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 2: They let Kaream Hunt go. They obviously feel decently about

1118
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:50,520
Speaker 2: this kid Ford exactly.

1119
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:53,919
Speaker 3: No more Cream Hunt, no more Dan Darren Johnson as well.

1120
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 3: So I think Ford should be Chubb's clair backup. You know,

1121
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 3: he was their fifth round pick last year. He's out

1122
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 3: of Cincinnati. He definitely has the talent and skills to

1123
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 3: be a three down back.

1124
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 1: He does have.

1125
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:08,640
Speaker 3: He's pretty similar to Cream Hunt actually, and he could

1126
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 3: carve out a similar role.

1127
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 1: And you know, he didn't produce much.

1128
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 3: As a receiver at Cincinnati, but that had more to

1129
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:18,240
Speaker 3: do with the scheme and Desmond Ritters is not targeting

1130
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:20,239
Speaker 3: running backs. That's been a theme heading you know, in

1131
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 3: the NFL as well. But Ford flashed as a pass

1132
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:24,799
Speaker 3: catcher in the preseason last year when they gave him

1133
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 3: that chance. So it's a shame the market has him

1134
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 3: so high. Again, the market's pretty sharp here, yeah, at

1135
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 3: RB fifty seven. But I think it's warranted. I think

1136
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 3: he should be in that upper echelon of like true backups,

1137
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 3: Like he's probably not going to provide value when Chubb

1138
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 3: is healthy, Like he might be able to carve out

1139
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 3: a cream Hunt role, but it's unlikely. But if Chubb

1140
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:46,799
Speaker 3: were to ever miss time, I think Ford is more

1141
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 3: than capable of being a you know, true warhorse back

1142
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 3: and providing potential RB two value. So of these backups

1143
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,880
Speaker 3: in this range, he's He's one that I'm definitely targeting.

1144
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's not going to be Felton, even

1145
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 2: though Felton will be like a more of a running back.

1146
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 1: This's like a wide receiver, right, Like it's.

1147
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 2: Gonna be it would be like forward with uh with

1148
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 2: with Kelly being like the RB three and Felton being like,

1149
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 2: you know, like a gadget something exactly. All right, Sleepers

1150
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 2: for Browns, we got gotta go to Drone Ford.

1151
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 3: I just think based on the ADP, the potential upside

1152
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 3: he provides, there got to be Drone forward for me.

1153
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 2: For me it's uh, it's Watson again. I think I

1154
00:56:25,360 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 2: just think going in the in the eighties is too

1155
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:29,720
Speaker 2: lo like. I think. I think this guy has legit.

1156
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 2: He's one of the few quarterbacks that has the passing

1157
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 2: and rushing upside. If you miss out on uh you know,

1158
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,240
Speaker 2: a hurt or a Fields or Allen and the support

1159
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 2: everything is, everything is right around him. So you know,

1160
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:44,320
Speaker 2: you just got to take a chance on the upside.

1161
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 2: But I'm willing to after kind of looking looking into it,

1162
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 2: I think he does bounce back this year, all right

1163
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 2: for busts anyone.

1164
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 1: I'm still sticking out of the Elijah More. It's one

1165
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:55,160
Speaker 1: of those things.

1166
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:57,359
Speaker 3: If he falls outside of the top fifty, I mean,

1167
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:00,360
Speaker 3: I could definitely see myself taking him. It just inside

1168
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 3: of the top fifty you have guys like Quinton Johnson,

1169
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:05,920
Speaker 3: even Juju Smith Schuster, who we've talked about I think

1170
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 3: as a higher for Zay Flowers goes around this range.

1171
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 3: There's the other guys I'm targeting. But if he were

1172
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 3: to fall outside of the top fifty five, I'd like him. So,

1173
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 3: just based on current ADP, I'm gonna have to go

1174
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 3: with Elijah Moore.

1175
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 2: For me, it's DPJ, just because I think I just

1176
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,480
Speaker 2: think he kind of maxed himself last year. You know,

1177
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 2: he's not gonna he's gonna be a more of a

1178
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 2: lower percentage route runner, and now they have more high

1179
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:30,160
Speaker 2: percentage guys to kind of take targets away. You know,

1180
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 2: he could get pushed by the rookie, he could get

1181
00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 2: squeezed by more so even with an improvement from Deshaun,

1182
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 2: I just I don't think he's you know, you're gonna

1183
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 2: do much better than you know, kind of the sixties

1184
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:45,040
Speaker 2: at wide receiver for him this year. So I think

1185
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 2: he's kind of being taken closer to a ceiling and

1186
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 2: you're not really gonna know when to predict those big

1187
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 2: games either. So if he drops maybe into the seventies

1188
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 2: or eighties and best ball, fine, but not a guy

1189
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 2: I'm excited about. I think last year was the time

1190
00:57:57,280 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 2: to take him almost probably for free, almost, and now it's, uh,

1191
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 2: you know, the time has passed. And also Jordan Akens

1192
00:58:03,560 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 2: is not hitting tight in thirty seven unless less less

1193
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 2: of an injury. I'm just gonna throw that out there,

1194
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 2: all right, Let's go to Pittsburgh. Can he pickets the

1195
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 2: QB twenty one? I mean, my question for you is,

1196
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 2: how are you projecting his touchdown passes? Because he had

1197
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:22,760
Speaker 2: seven on three eight a cool one touchdown rate. I

1198
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 2: mean that's like almost unheard of. I feel like he

1199
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 2: has a y range of outcomes because he has like

1200
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 2: he could take a year or two jump, but he

1201
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:32,919
Speaker 2: has like double benching risks because they have Truebisky and

1202
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 2: Mason Rudolph to turn to if something goes wrong. So

1203
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on Picket entering year number two?

1204
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:43,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, the I mean he's due for some positive touchdown regression,

1205
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 3: but I'm not expecting too much. So I have his

1206
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 3: line right now, right around nineteen nineteen and a half,

1207
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 3: that's right said.

1208
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:50,480
Speaker 2: It pretty low?

1209
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty low, which hurts the receivers.

1210
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 3: But you know Matt Canada returns as the OC, which

1211
00:58:58,640 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 3: should get give Picket some continuity heading in year two.

1212
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 1: I don't love it.

1213
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 3: I don't think Canada's is a good offensive coordinator at all.

1214
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 3: I think he does limit to the upside of this offense.

1215
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 3: So we'll see what happens. But I think Pickett, you know,

1216
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 3: he's gonna have a year or two breakout, Like you mentioned,

1217
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 3: you know, he didn't throw for multiple touchdowns in a

1218
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 3: single game last year, and he threw less than two

1219
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 3: hundred yards and six of his ten full games. I mean,

1220
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 3: it was pretty ugly, not gonna lie, but he does

1221
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:30,439
Speaker 3: have that you know, rushing upside that he flashed last year.

1222
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 3: So it's just not enough to make up for the

1223
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 3: sheer lack of passing stats. But he has potential miss offense.

1224
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:41,480
Speaker 3: He has three really good pass catchers at his disposal,

1225
00:59:41,560 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 3: so the potential's there. I think the ADP is fair.

1226
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 3: I'm not excited about it, you know. I think if

1227
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:51,919
Speaker 3: all goes well, he'll be like a mid range QB two.

1228
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 3: I just don't see the QB one upside quite yet.

1229
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:58,600
Speaker 3: So I'm just sort of like in line with ADP

1230
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 3: and in line with like best ball sh right now.

1231
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's I think I think they're like

1232
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:08,640
Speaker 2: he probably should be going a couple of spots lower,

1233
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 2: just considering the benching risk, like especially the best ball

1234
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:16,400
Speaker 2: because again, like you got two guys now that you

1235
01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 2: feel comfortab when Truebisky's really a guy that I think

1236
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:21,439
Speaker 2: like if they struggled, I think they would turn to him.

1237
01:00:21,480 --> 01:00:24,560
Speaker 2: So that's something whereas like, you know, it's not like uh,

1238
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:26,439
Speaker 2: you know, there's certain teams that's just you know, even

1239
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 2: if it's like, you know, the Packers aren't benching Jeordan

1240
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:31,560
Speaker 2: Love for example, like you know, it's gonna ride it out.

1241
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 2: Deontay Johnson and George Pickens thirty two and thirty four

1242
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:38,880
Speaker 2: at wide receiver. If you had, like which one do

1243
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 2: you like the value where you buy the dip on

1244
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 2: Deontay with the zero touchdowns or you break banking on

1245
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:48,240
Speaker 2: the year to break out for Pickens who was kind

1246
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:51,360
Speaker 2: of a lower percentage route runner but flashed.

1247
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:55,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm buying the dip. I prefer Deante Johnson here.

1248
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 3: You know, he finishes the wide receiver forty six last year,

1249
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 3: but the things in the lower part two scoring zero touchdowns,

1250
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 3: so obviously he's due for positive touch on aggression. Not

1251
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:09,560
Speaker 3: saying he will score, you know, double digit touchdowns this year.

1252
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:12,280
Speaker 3: I'm projecting him for five. I think that's fair. But

1253
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:14,480
Speaker 3: that's that's just gonna be massive, and you know, I

1254
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:17,960
Speaker 3: think he should still see plenty of volumes. He saw

1255
01:01:18,080 --> 01:01:20,680
Speaker 3: thirty four percent of the team's air yards last year,

1256
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:23,000
Speaker 3: which is thirteenth highest in the league.

1257
01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 1: No more Chase Claypool.

1258
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 3: I think that's gonna help, you know, funnel more targets

1259
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:27,840
Speaker 3: to both these receivers.

1260
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 1: A bit.

1261
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 3: Not worried about Alan Robinson at all. And George Pickens.

1262
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 3: You know, he's talented, but he only commanded a target

1263
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 3: on fourteen percent of his routes. You know, I was

1264
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,680
Speaker 3: saying last year like he should have been a first

1265
01:01:41,720 --> 01:01:44,040
Speaker 3: round pick. It was just due to potential off field

1266
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:46,760
Speaker 3: concerns and the fact that he tours ACL in the

1267
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:50,120
Speaker 3: National Championship game. He probably wasn't gonna bee hundred percent

1268
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:53,360
Speaker 3: last year, but he flashed why he was a potential

1269
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:56,400
Speaker 3: first round pick last year. He's gonna make, you know,

1270
01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 3: the highlight reel catches. But just in this offense where

1271
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:03,280
Speaker 3: they're just isn't that many yards or touchdowns to go around?

1272
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 3: That really limits Pickens upside. I would like him if

1273
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 3: he was on any other team, but I think just

1274
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 3: based on this offense, based on Picket, it really hurts Pickens.

1275
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 3: So that's why he's probably going a little too high. Honestly,

1276
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:19,600
Speaker 3: at wide receiver thirty four. Nothing to do with his talent,

1277
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:23,240
Speaker 3: but I think, you know, Deontay Johnson, I'm projecting closer

1278
01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:26,440
Speaker 3: to wide receiver twenty five. So you know, give me

1279
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,720
Speaker 3: Deontay at wide receiver thirty two.

1280
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm a little skeptical of both of them,

1281
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 2: to be honest with you, just because, like Deontay, my

1282
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 2: worry is, like we saw as target perout ray dip

1283
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:42,560
Speaker 2: from twenty seven percent a couple of years ago to

1284
01:02:42,600 --> 01:02:45,360
Speaker 2: twenty three percent last year, and I'm just working like

1285
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:47,520
Speaker 2: it's literally I think it's a Matt Canadate issue, But

1286
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:51,840
Speaker 2: I just worried at Pickett. Pickett doesn't have as good

1287
01:02:51,840 --> 01:02:54,400
Speaker 2: at chemistry as a guy like Ben Roethlisberger, who would

1288
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,120
Speaker 2: just I mean spam Deyontay with Tom Yeah, I mean.

1289
01:02:57,480 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 2: And so now you factor in that, like there is

1290
01:03:00,160 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 2: is like a mathematical jump twenty two year old wide

1291
01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:08,960
Speaker 2: receivers entering year two make which would be Pickins. So like, yes,

1292
01:03:09,000 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 2: it was like twenty three to fifteen percent last year,

1293
01:03:11,400 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 2: but that gap could even close more all the while

1294
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:18,680
Speaker 2: there's still just could not be that much efficiency because again,

1295
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 2: this Canada offense, I'm just not sold. So I actually

1296
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 2: think both of them may be going a little bit

1297
01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:28,440
Speaker 2: too high. Obviously, I do think Johnson will not have

1298
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 2: zero touchdowns again, I think he'll regress there. Yeah, I'm

1299
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 2: still kind of looking into that. Alon Robinson I want

1300
01:03:34,160 --> 01:03:36,720
Speaker 2: no part of at eighty one. I think he Actually

1301
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 2: there's a chance Calvin Austin, who missed off last year

1302
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 2: fourth round out of Memphis, comes in and kind of

1303
01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 2: like that Steven Simms role if Robinson struggles. But yeah, Robinson,

1304
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 2: I mean he's definitely in a decline if he's not

1305
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 2: going to be like the number one receiver, Like he

1306
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:53,840
Speaker 2: came on near the end of last year with like

1307
01:03:54,400 --> 01:03:56,680
Speaker 2: four catches over four catches for forty six yards a

1308
01:03:56,680 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 2: game when like everyone got injured for the Rams, but.

1309
01:03:59,520 --> 01:04:01,320
Speaker 1: Four catch for forty six yards bawling.

1310
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:04,240
Speaker 2: We have over the last five games four point two

1311
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 2: for forty six. But you know, as the number, you know,

1312
01:04:07,560 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 2: behind Johnson, Pickens and Fryer moves to the tighten nine. Yeah,

1313
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:15,919
Speaker 2: I don't, I don't. I don't see really any point

1314
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 2: of taking him at at eighty one. I'd probably rather

1315
01:04:19,040 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 2: take a shot at Austin at one twelve and then

1316
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 2: Nase is RB ten and Warren sixty one. What are

1317
01:04:25,280 --> 01:04:26,680
Speaker 2: your thoughts on the on the backs?

1318
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:30,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know, Nause finished as the RB twelve

1319
01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:33,240
Speaker 3: last year, but he was RB seventeen and points per game.

1320
01:04:33,280 --> 01:04:37,000
Speaker 3: You know, he played all seventeen games, but he was

1321
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 3: never really one hundred percent. You know, he was dealing

1322
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:42,840
Speaker 3: with that nagging foot injury and other injuries all season long.

1323
01:04:42,920 --> 01:04:45,280
Speaker 3: So he's a gamer. He's one of those backs where

1324
01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:47,919
Speaker 3: he's gonna have to be really injured to miss games,

1325
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:50,200
Speaker 3: which is kind of nice when you draft him as

1326
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 3: alone RB one, But I just don't see the upside there,

1327
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:56,080
Speaker 3: you know, because the peal for Harris has always been

1328
01:04:56,080 --> 01:04:59,320
Speaker 3: the volume. But he's never going to be the most

1329
01:04:59,320 --> 01:05:02,200
Speaker 3: efficient runner. But you can bank on, you know, twenty

1330
01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 3: plus touches. However, you know, it does seem like Jalen

1331
01:05:05,600 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 3: Warren is turning this into more of a running back

1332
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:12,880
Speaker 3: by committee than the pass. You know, Harris is only

1333
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 3: averaging a fifty percent ross run rate last year. That's

1334
01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:19,600
Speaker 3: where Warren was really chipping in. So it just blocks

1335
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:23,960
Speaker 3: Harris's upside. But I think low end RB one is

1336
01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:26,600
Speaker 3: where I would still take Harris. I give me a

1337
01:05:26,600 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 3: guy like Rumandre Stevenson, I would say over Harris, who's

1338
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 3: going below him, especially after the news that James Robinson

1339
01:05:33,280 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 3: got cut. But I think you know, RB eleven twelve

1340
01:05:36,080 --> 01:05:38,640
Speaker 3: is fair. Just don't expect top five production from him.

1341
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 3: Just expect you know, the ho hum you know, RB

1342
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 3: thirteen RB fourteen kind of production.

1343
01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean, yeah, Harris is a guy who,

1344
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 2: like I'm avoiding because again I like like Joe Mixon.

1345
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 2: I think Joe Mixon like right now, might have a

1346
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 2: higher medium projection than Naji Harris. So you know, yeah,

1347
01:05:58,000 --> 01:06:00,520
Speaker 2: I'm you know, it's like RB ten doesn't do anything

1348
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:04,440
Speaker 2: for me. And you mentioned it. His his route participation

1349
01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:07,840
Speaker 2: rate went from sixty six percent in twenty twenty one

1350
01:06:07,880 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 2: to forty six percent last year. And it's targets per

1351
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:12,360
Speaker 2: routeland down as well. So again, like this is the

1352
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:15,880
Speaker 2: change from Ben to Picket that there's there's it's more

1353
01:06:15,920 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 2: than just the Canada. Obviously, we have a whole new quarterback,

1354
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 2: so we can't use some of these numbers from twenty

1355
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 2: twenty one in terms of the usage and just think

1356
01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 2: they're going to like bounce back. It's you know, big

1357
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:27,160
Speaker 2: Ben was you know, checking it down and spamming Deyonta

1358
01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:31,200
Speaker 2: and that's not necessarily who Picket is or Truebisky for

1359
01:06:31,240 --> 01:06:35,760
Speaker 2: that matter. So yeah, yeah, Nause, I think he's overvalued.

1360
01:06:35,800 --> 01:06:38,760
Speaker 2: I think Warren is undervalued. Warren beat Nag and yards

1361
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 2: after contact, you know, three point one to two point

1362
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:44,800
Speaker 2: seven yards per route one point three too point eight. Uh,

1363
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:47,640
Speaker 2: And he was a better path blocker, gave up a

1364
01:06:47,680 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 2: pressure about on four percent of snaps compared to Nause

1365
01:06:50,680 --> 01:06:53,800
Speaker 2: on nine percent. So I think I think Warren will

1366
01:06:53,840 --> 01:06:58,760
Speaker 2: continue to eat into it. So sweepers for the Steelers.

1367
01:06:58,800 --> 01:06:59,400
Speaker 1: Jalen Warren.

1368
01:06:59,440 --> 01:07:02,880
Speaker 3: Actually, you know, he was RB fifty two last year

1369
01:07:02,880 --> 01:07:06,040
Speaker 3: despite Nause playing in all seventeen games, and you can

1370
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,880
Speaker 3: get him an RB sixty one right now. And like

1371
01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:12,360
Speaker 3: I said, he actually in my expected yards per carry

1372
01:07:12,360 --> 01:07:14,720
Speaker 3: model he ranked tenth out of fifty eight. So he's

1373
01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:16,480
Speaker 3: just a really good runner too. He could really eat

1374
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 3: into Nause's rushing share a lot more this year, so

1375
01:07:19,600 --> 01:07:22,600
Speaker 3: he could carve out a potential flex role even when

1376
01:07:22,680 --> 01:07:25,400
Speaker 3: Nause is healthy. And I think he has RB two

1377
01:07:25,480 --> 01:07:28,360
Speaker 3: upside if Nause you were to miss time. So I

1378
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:31,000
Speaker 3: think Warren is just a no brainer at RB sixty one.

1379
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally agree, Jamen Warren or Bust. What about for

1380
01:07:36,000 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 2: bust under overvalued guys on the Steelers?

1381
01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:41,800
Speaker 3: Well, I take your point when when you say both receivers,

1382
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:44,840
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna I'm gonna hone in on George Pickens.

1383
01:07:45,600 --> 01:07:48,120
Speaker 3: Bust is a bit harsh. Again, love the talent, but

1384
01:07:48,440 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 3: just this offense is gonna, you know, hold him back.

1385
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 3: I just don't like his upside in this offense. So

1386
01:07:53,840 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 3: while he's gonna make some amazing catches, it's just not

1387
01:07:56,200 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 3: gonna produce you know, high end wide receiver three numbers.

1388
01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:02,400
Speaker 1: So I think his ADP in the mid thirties is

1389
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 1: just a bit high right now.

1390
01:08:04,160 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean for me, I like I'm not even

1391
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:08,440
Speaker 2: gonna put those two guys in because, like there, I

1392
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 2: just think there are so many they're actually bigger potential

1393
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:13,400
Speaker 2: bus here. I think Najie Harris is actually I just

1394
01:08:13,400 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 2: think I just think no, I mean, I just think

1395
01:08:15,680 --> 01:08:18,960
Speaker 2: a top ten, uh pick a running back pick on

1396
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 2: Najia is a little bit much. And then I actually

1397
01:08:22,200 --> 01:08:24,200
Speaker 2: think Alan Robinson at eighty one is a lot more

1398
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 2: egregious than Deyontay or Pickens in the thirties. I mean,

1399
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:29,599
Speaker 2: this guy has just shown us he's done and now

1400
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:33,080
Speaker 2: he's going to be literally last in the pecking order

1401
01:08:33,160 --> 01:08:35,320
Speaker 2: if he even maintains that John and he's going to

1402
01:08:35,360 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 2: a new team that barely had any passing stats last year.

1403
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:41,600
Speaker 2: So like, I like at eighty one, Like why like

1404
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:43,599
Speaker 2: why why not just yet? You know what I mean,

1405
01:08:43,600 --> 01:08:47,519
Speaker 2: there's there's got there's there's there's younger guys who you

1406
01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:50,840
Speaker 2: can take to have more upside and less downside.

1407
01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:54,920
Speaker 1: Yeah at this point, Well where were you on T night?

1408
01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:56,040
Speaker 1: I don't think, Yeah, I like.

1409
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:57,560
Speaker 2: I like, I like fire Moose there. I mean, I

1410
01:08:57,840 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 2: don't think it's like, it's not It's kind of like Nijoku,

1411
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:05,320
Speaker 2: where it's you know, you will always be able to

1412
01:09:05,320 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 2: predict predict the big games. But I think he's a

1413
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:10,799
Speaker 2: guy who had a pretty good rapport with with Picket,

1414
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 2: and his eight ap jumped from about six in his

1415
01:09:13,040 --> 01:09:15,360
Speaker 2: rookie year to over eight last year. It's target sproute

1416
01:09:15,439 --> 01:09:18,479
Speaker 2: jump from under twenty to twenty two percent last year.

1417
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:22,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like Friar MutS. I'm not I'm not

1418
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:25,000
Speaker 2: shying away from him, right, Uh so yeah, what about

1419
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:26,120
Speaker 2: your Yeah?

1420
01:09:26,160 --> 01:09:26,840
Speaker 1: No, I like him.

1421
01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:29,839
Speaker 3: There he had that weird stretch from weeks thirteen through fifteen.

1422
01:09:30,160 --> 01:09:33,120
Speaker 3: He had some really weird usage where his routs run

1423
01:09:33,200 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 3: rate dipped, which is concerning. But like when it comes

1424
01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 3: to Darnell Washington being drafted through. I'm not worried about him.

1425
01:09:40,040 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 3: He's more of a blocking tight end. It might take

1426
01:09:42,280 --> 01:09:44,679
Speaker 3: him a couple of years to develop as a pass catcher,

1427
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:47,760
Speaker 3: so I think we'll see the typical over seventy percent

1428
01:09:47,840 --> 01:09:50,000
Speaker 3: routes run rate for Friar Myth and just when it

1429
01:09:50,040 --> 01:09:53,680
Speaker 3: comes to as a prospect, Like you know, he was

1430
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:58,280
Speaker 3: overshadowed because he got drafted the same year as Kyle Pitts. Well,

1431
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 3: if Pitts wasn't in that class, like he would have

1432
01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:03,719
Speaker 3: been the clear number one tight end pick, he would

1433
01:10:03,760 --> 01:10:05,960
Speaker 3: have had more hype entering in. So I just haven't

1434
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:08,559
Speaker 3: been shocked that he's a top ten tight end, Like

1435
01:10:08,760 --> 01:10:10,360
Speaker 3: I think he's legit talent wise.

1436
01:10:10,400 --> 01:10:12,519
Speaker 1: He's twenty four into year three.

1437
01:10:12,360 --> 01:10:15,320
Speaker 3: So I love him again, just maybe the offense holds

1438
01:10:15,360 --> 01:10:17,120
Speaker 3: back the ceiling a bit, but I do like him

1439
01:10:17,120 --> 01:10:17,760
Speaker 3: in the top ten.

1440
01:10:18,200 --> 01:10:20,439
Speaker 2: And again I think that twenty two percent targets per

1441
01:10:20,479 --> 01:10:24,280
Speaker 2: route is pretty significant because that's high for a tight end,

1442
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:27,599
Speaker 2: and that was one percent lower than actually nine tenths

1443
01:10:27,640 --> 01:10:29,920
Speaker 2: of a percent. He's twenty two point one, nine tens

1444
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:32,160
Speaker 2: of a percent lower than Deontay Johnson, which is again

1445
01:10:32,479 --> 01:10:34,879
Speaker 2: why I'm a little bit like I don't know about deyontay.

1446
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:37,400
Speaker 2: We could just put those like you know, those those

1447
01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:41,040
Speaker 2: ben years into the calculation here. Yeah, and so if

1448
01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:43,040
Speaker 2: the Friar moves just you know, kind of bounces back

1449
01:10:43,040 --> 01:10:45,479
Speaker 2: with the touchdowns a little bit. His his touchdowns per

1450
01:10:45,479 --> 01:10:50,120
Speaker 2: catch went from twelve percent two years ago to just

1451
01:10:50,160 --> 01:10:52,840
Speaker 2: over three percent yeah last year. So just a little

1452
01:10:52,840 --> 01:10:55,000
Speaker 2: bit of regression and he'd be we'd be in business.

1453
01:10:55,040 --> 01:10:58,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, like like like Fiar Moth. But that is

1454
01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:03,799
Speaker 2: going to wrap it for our Fantasy Flex AFC North

1455
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 2: Fantasy preview. If you want to hear us talking NFC North,

1456
01:11:06,520 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 2: that episode will be up Friday. Our AFC and NFC

1457
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:12,360
Speaker 2: East episodes are ready dropped right here on the Fantasy

1458
01:11:12,360 --> 01:11:15,320
Speaker 2: Flex feed. Stay tuned next week for our AFC and

1459
01:11:15,479 --> 01:11:19,080
Speaker 2: NFC South previews. You can find Sean on Twitter at

1460
01:11:19,120 --> 01:11:22,880
Speaker 2: the Underscore Oddsmaker, I'm at Chris Raybon, and you can

1461
01:11:22,960 --> 01:11:25,880
Speaker 2: find us at those same handles on the free award

1462
01:11:25,880 --> 01:11:31,240
Speaker 2: winning Action Network app. Until next time, Let's get this money.

1463
01:11:35,160 --> 01:11:39,720
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1464
01:11:39,720 --> 01:11:42,519
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1465
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