1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 2: Joe Mathic alongside Kaylee Lions as we tiptoe a bit 7 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 2: more into that uncertainty, and of course the NATO summit 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 2: that's getting underway overseas Bloomberg's and Marie hor Dern is 9 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:39,480 Speaker 2: there for us, Kaylee, Bloomberg's chief political correspondent, as they 10 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 2: anticipate the imminent arrival here of President Trump and Marie, 11 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: it's good to see you. I wonder how the word 12 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: of this cease fire is impacting the conversation in the 13 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 2: Netherlands today. 14 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 3: Good afternoon. 15 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 4: Well, certainly, Joe, we already heard from Mark Rutta via 16 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 4: a private text Messagetarian General sent President Trump, and if 17 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 4: you look at the actual screen grab from the President, 18 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 4: it said a minute and then it looked like he 19 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 4: immediately wanted to share it with the world, and he 20 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 4: congratulated him on decisive action in the region. And then 21 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 4: went on to say that no one could achieve what 22 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 4: the President is about to potentially get in terms of 23 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 4: a big win in terms of defense spending when it 24 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 4: comes to NATO members of five percent. When it comes 25 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 4: to the ceasefire in the region, we did just have 26 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 4: a readout from the Iranian president with the Crown Prince 27 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 4: of Saudi Arabia Ron saying that they would like to 28 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 4: look at a fair agreement under international frameworks. When it 29 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 4: comes to the United States and then Israel, they do 30 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 4: seem to be lifting some war time measures for society. 31 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 4: So it does look like this ceasefire, which this morning 32 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 4: was incredibly fragile, and you saw that frustration with the 33 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 4: President even using an expletive talking about these two countries 34 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: and blaming both of them, but really putting a lot 35 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: of emphasis on Israel in terms of that vulnerability of 36 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 4: the ceasefire and the fragility of it. But the President 37 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 4: will be walking into some mixed feelings here at the Hay. 38 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 4: You had French President Emmanue malt Krohn yesterday talking about 39 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 4: the fact that the US strikes on Iran were illegal. 40 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 4: He went on to say that he agrees with the 41 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 4: United States that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, but 42 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 4: doesn't seem to be that he liked the measures the 43 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 4: United States took. And then you heard from. 44 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 5: The new German Chancellor who said that what Israel was 45 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 5: doing was the world's quote dirty work, and said he 46 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,519 Speaker 5: really had no problem with the United States and Israel 47 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 5: was doing. So I think he'll be met with some 48 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 5: mixed results when it comes to what is happening right 49 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 5: now in the Middle East. 50 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 6: All right, Amrie Hordern, Bloomberg chief political correspondent and host 51 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 6: of Bloomberg Surveillance in the Hague in the Netherlands, thank 52 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 6: you so much. And again, as Joe alluded to, President 53 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 6: Trump is expected to touch down in the Netherlands this 54 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 6: hour as he gets ready to meet with natal leaders, having, 55 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 6: of course, before he left, discussed with reporters the ceasefire, 56 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 6: the fragile ceasefire that has been reached between Israel and Iran, 57 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 6: though he was frustrated earlier today with what appeared to 58 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 6: be violations of it on both sides, even resorting to 59 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 6: using some explative language. Here was the President before his departure. 60 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 3: I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning 61 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 3: because the one rocket that didn't land, that was shot 62 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 3: perhaps by mistake that didn't land. I'm not happy about that. 63 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: We basically have two countries that have been fighting so 64 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 3: long and so hard that they don't know what the 65 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 3: they're doing. You understand that. 66 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 6: That was the President of the United States before departing 67 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 6: to joint Bass Andrews in a board Air Force one. Well, 68 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 6: we have heard from him on true social number of 69 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 6: times since he boarded the plane, suggesting that we are 70 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 6: now at a peaceful time, that both sides, Israel and 71 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 6: Iran wanted this ceasefire agreement. The question, of course, is 72 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 6: how long can it remain intact? And that's where we 73 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 6: turn now to the former chair of the House Foreign 74 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 6: Affairs Committee, Congressman Michael McCall of Texas, is joining us 75 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 6: live here on Bloomberg TV and Radio from Capitol Hill. Sir, 76 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 6: we you appreciate your time. What will it take to 77 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 6: make sure that this cease fire between Israel and Iran 78 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 6: is maintained is not violated again? 79 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 7: Well, I think the present sent a remarkable job putting 80 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 7: pressure on both parties, both Israel and Iran, to stop 81 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 7: the fighting that's been going on for so long. I 82 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 7: think what happened the other night with our B two 83 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 7: stealth bombers taking out the three nuclear facilities sent a 84 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 7: strong message to Iran that we're going to have peace 85 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 7: in the region and that can only be done through strength. 86 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 7: I would say also that the response from Iran, they 87 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 7: say was proportional, even though it wasn't. But that's to 88 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 7: me very indicative that Iran doesn't want to escalate this either. 89 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 7: They're saying as a proportional strike, face saving measure for 90 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 7: the Iranian regime to their people, but they've been hear 91 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 7: dramatically both their top leadership, the scientists, the political leaders, 92 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 7: and the three nuclear sites. I don't think Iron wants 93 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 7: to escalate this anymore. In your overture you mentioned to 94 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,840 Speaker 7: the Saudis just a few minutes ago. I think it's 95 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 7: very significant step forward. 96 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 2: Congressman, It's good to see you, and I wonder your 97 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 2: thoughts to Kayley's point on maintaining this ceasefire and more specifically, 98 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 2: what to do with the highly enriched uranium that is 99 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 2: still floating somewhere around Iran that we cannot locate and 100 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 2: was apparently moved ahead of US strikes. If we're not 101 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,040 Speaker 2: going to see weapons inspectors for instance, in that country. 102 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: How do we find it? How do we control this? 103 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 7: That's going to be extremely important. It has to be 104 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 7: part of the peace agreement, and I'm glad Iron is 105 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 7: now wanting to come to the table in good faith, 106 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 7: which they were not before. That remaining material is very important. 107 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,679 Speaker 7: I've been briefed on this strike before it happened as well. 108 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 7: It did significant damage, but they can rebuild. We need 109 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 7: to make sure they do not rebuild these facilities and 110 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 7: that all of the enriched uranium is accounted for, so 111 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 7: they can't build a nuclear bomb. Meanwhile, Israel is inside 112 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 7: of Iran and they're looking at the people of Iran. 113 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 7: One of the problems is I have some concerns that 114 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 7: as long as this the Eyetola and the oppressive theocrity 115 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 7: is in power, it's going to be difficult to maintain 116 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 7: that piece. But this president has shown the boldness, I think, 117 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 7: in the brilliant military operation to put that kind of 118 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 7: pressure necessary to maybe possibly a chief piece as we 119 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 7: look at normalization talks between Israel and the rest of 120 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 7: the Arab world, that being the Saudis and the other 121 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 7: countries to follow. 122 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 6: Well, Congressman, you may have been briefed before this all 123 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 6: went down, but many of your Democratic colleagues or not 124 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 6: have been upset about that, as I'm sure you well know, 125 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 6: and of course there are a number of them pushing 126 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 6: for a vote on a war Powers resolution as a 127 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 6: result this question around congressional notification and authorization. The House 128 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 6: Speaker Mike Johnson today suggested that the War Powers Act, 129 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 6: which has been the law of the land for over 130 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 6: fifty years now, is unconstitutional, though the Constitution obviously does 131 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 6: say Congress is the only power that can declare war 132 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 6: and appropriate funding for the military. What exactly is your 133 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 6: reading of the founder's intentions here? Should we be questioning 134 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 6: the constitutionality of the War Powers Act? 135 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 7: Well, well, the War Powers Act was an attempt to 136 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 7: reconcile within the Constitution Article one that Congress has a 137 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 7: power to declare war, which is clear Article two. The 138 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 7: President is the commander in chief, so can conduct limited 139 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 7: strikes like in this case under the self defense argument. 140 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 7: That has been done since nineteen seventy three, since Warpowers. 141 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 7: In fact, it's been done prior to that under President Truman, 142 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 7: all the way up to modern day history. The question 143 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 7: will be the Warpowers Act sort of kick in the 144 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 7: day of the strikes sixty days later. If there is 145 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 7: sustained military action, that then does require the Congress to 146 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 7: act with either a decoration of war or an authorize 147 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 7: use a military force like what we did after nine 148 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 7: to eleven. So that will be the ongoing discussion. I 149 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 7: think in the Congress, I don't think you're going to 150 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 7: see boots on the ground, American boots. I don't think 151 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,319 Speaker 7: you're going to see sustained military presence by the United States. 152 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 7: So perhaps this will take care of itself. But we 153 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 7: are obviously in the Congress, we jealously guard our Article 154 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 7: one powers. 155 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 2: That said Congressman. If the President was acting amid the 156 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 2: executive authority here to protect Americans against an imminent threat, 157 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 2: does he need to show Americans the intelligence that would 158 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 2: proved that Iran was as close to a nuclear weapon 159 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 2: as he is suggesting, because that would run counter to 160 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 2: what we've heard from some others in the intelligence community. 161 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,440 Speaker 2: And should there be evidence that we close the deal 162 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 2: that the centrifuges, the nuclear facilities have in fact been destroyed, 163 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 2: as the President says. 164 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 7: We do have a scheduled classified briefing on that very issue, 165 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,319 Speaker 7: which would be extremely important for Congress to hear. We 166 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 7: operate on the baff of the American people. That is 167 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 7: the Article one authority. Now, when I was Chairman of 168 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 7: Foreign Affairs, I would get notification from both the Trump 169 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 7: and Biden administrations when they use strikes and under what 170 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 7: authorities are they doing this, and many times it could 171 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 7: be an AUMF authority or also self defense and sometimes 172 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 7: just self defense Article two, which is what they did 173 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 7: in this case. They did notify the Congress that they 174 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 7: operate under self defense and the immediate and present danger. Now, 175 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 7: I would argue that the fact that they were enrichment 176 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 7: at sixty percent that could get to ninety the threat 177 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 7: to the Middle East existentially to the United States, and 178 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,679 Speaker 7: the track record did pose a threat ultimately to the 179 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 7: American people. They have been the largest state sponsor of 180 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 7: terror in the region for so many years, since nineteen 181 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 7: seventy nine. I hope that this action, though this military action, 182 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 7: will finally bring it to a head where we can 183 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:23,199 Speaker 7: finally have peace in the Middle East. 184 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 6: In our final moment with you, Congressman, on intelligence, the President, 185 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 6: of course has criticized the Director of National Intelligence Tulci Gabbard, 186 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 6: the ODNI is facing budget cuts. Does this do damage 187 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 6: to our intelligence gathering capabilities and operations? 188 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 3: You know, I don't know. 189 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:43,680 Speaker 7: I wasn't in the room. I can tell you what 190 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 7: I know, and that is that they did have enrichment 191 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 7: capabilities to build a nuclear bomb. What they didn't have 192 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 7: was a nuclear warhead itself. They were working on that, 193 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 7: but they could also buy it from say Russia, China, 194 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 7: North It's the nuclear warhead that they need to put 195 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 7: the bomb in that then attaches to the ballistic missiles 196 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 7: that can then deliver a nuclear warhead to the region. 197 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 7: And let's not forget the Inner Continent ballistic missiles they've 198 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 7: been working on, not to go to the Moon as 199 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 7: a space program, but to deliver nuclear warheads intercontinental, that 200 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 7: being from Iran to the United States. And that is 201 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 7: what they were working on. And now we've put it 202 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 7: to a temporary halt. 203 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 2: Well, Congress, it's good to have you with us. We 204 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,719 Speaker 2: can get into the office of the d N I 205 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 2: maybe next time we talk. Michael McCall bringing his experience 206 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 2: as the former Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee 207 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 2: representing Texas and live from Capitol Hill We've got much 208 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 2: more to follow, including our political panel. They'll be with 209 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 2: us next here alongside Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew on 210 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 2: what is the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power? We're 211 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 2: live from Washington with much more ahead. Stay with us 212 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and radio. 213 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 214 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 215 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: Apple Cockplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 216 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 217 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 218 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 6: President Trump departed Washington earlier today. He is en route 219 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,839 Speaker 6: to the Hague in the Netherlands, expected to touch down 220 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,679 Speaker 6: at any moment really this hour, of course, for the 221 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 6: NATO summit, focusing on issues like defense spending among NATO allies, 222 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 6: the war between Ukraine and Russia, but featuring heavily in 223 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 6: the conversation we all expect will be the ceasefire agreement, 224 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 6: albeit a fragile one between Israel and Iran that was 225 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 6: struck overnight, that the President, of course has been touting 226 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 6: after earlier today, expressing some frustration with violations proceed violations 227 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 6: of the ceasefire on both sides, it does seem that 228 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 6: it is indeed holding for now. In the president on 229 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 6: board of the airplane putting up this post on true 230 00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 6: Social suggesting both Israel and Iran wanted to stop the 231 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 6: war equally, it was my great honor to destroy all 232 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 6: nuclear facilities and capability and then stop the war. Of course, 233 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 6: we still don't know that all facilities and capability in 234 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 6: terms of Iran's nuclear capacity has been destroyed. Verification still 235 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 6: very much a question at this hour, though. The Vice 236 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 6: President of the United States, J Evans, went on Fox 237 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 6: News yesterday to frame what the US has accomplished in 238 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 6: regard to the Iranian nuclear program. This way week. 239 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 8: Ago, Iran was very close to having a nuclear weapon. 240 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 8: Now Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon with 241 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 8: the equipment they have because we destroyed it. Our hope 242 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 8: and our expectation is that they're not going to try 243 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 8: to rebuild that program. And I think the President really 244 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 8: hit the reset button and said, look, let's actually produce 245 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 8: long term piece for the region. That's always been his goal. 246 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 8: I actually think when we look back, we will say 247 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 8: the twelve Day War was an important reset moment for 248 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 8: the entire region. 249 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 2: All right, that was last night, and you fast forward 250 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 2: to this morning, and things got pretty chippy on the 251 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 2: south lawn of the White House, the driveway. Actually, as 252 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 2: the President was exiting, you've probably heard or seen him 253 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 2: drop the F bomb by now, expressing extreme anger at 254 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:13,079 Speaker 2: what appeared to be, at least in his interpretation, violations 255 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 2: of the ceasefire from both parties that we said, he 256 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 2: was very upset with Israel. By the time he got 257 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 2: in the helicopter and was on his way to the 258 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 2: NATO summit in the Netherlands. The President was posting about 259 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 2: a very different tune here, talking about peace in the 260 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 2: Middle East. We assemble our political panel for their take 261 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: on all of this. He's just about to arrive at 262 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 2: the NATO summit in the Netherlands. Bloomberg Politics contributor Geenie 263 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 2: Shanzeno is with a senior democracy fellow with the Center 264 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 2: for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. Republican strategist 265 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Partner at Stone Court Capital, Bloomberg Politics contributor, 266 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 2: Great to see you both, Rick, How do you maintain 267 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 2: this ceasefire if it doesn't include the president? Coming outside 268 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 2: and dropping an F bomb every day? How durable is 269 00:14:59,400 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 2: this agreement? 270 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 9: This one more bomb in the Trump arsenal. You know, look, 271 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 9: I mean, I think that the magic of Donald Trump, 272 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 9: if you want to call it anything, is that he 273 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 9: will treat his allies just as poorly as his enemies sometimes, 274 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 9: And in this case, he put it right after Bibi Nityahu, 275 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 9: someone who's alliance he has coveted since the day was 276 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 9: first elected in twenty sixteen, and a deep seated friendship 277 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 9: and of course no love for the Ayatolas. So the 278 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 9: fact that he's willing to throw the Prime Minister of 279 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 9: Israel under the boss on a violation of the ceasefire 280 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 9: indicates that you've got to pay attention to the rules 281 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 9: that he sets out. And it's not the negotiating style 282 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 9: we're used to. It's not going to be replicated anytime 283 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 9: soon by future Secretary's of State or presidents. But this 284 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 9: president can get away with it, and it's actually going 285 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 9: to I think, potentially work out well in this instance 286 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 9: because without that tough talk to both parties, one or 287 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 9: the other is going to take advantage and this is 288 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 9: going to be a very difficult piece to keep and 289 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 9: I think it's going to be this kind of piece 290 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 9: by it two by four is the only way to 291 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 9: get these parties to get to a piece agreement long term. 292 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 6: Well, that raises the next question here, Genie. It's one 293 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 6: thing for a ceasefire to be maintained and for Israel 294 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 6: and Iran to no longer be firing missiles directly at 295 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 6: each other. It's something else, entirely for Iran to return 296 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 6: to the negotiating table on its actual nuclear program and 297 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 6: its future, for something to rix'spoint, in terms of a 298 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 6: sustainable agreement to be reached and whether that can be 299 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 6: brokered with the US, is that still in your mind 300 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 6: what the President's ultimate objective is here? Or is he 301 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 6: going to claim peacemaker on this or deal maker on 302 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 6: this even if he can't claim deal maker on that 303 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 6: in the future, you. 304 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 10: Know, knowing Donald Trump the way we do, I think 305 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 10: he would like to be a deal maker on both. 306 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 10: And certainly he is really bent on transitioning from war 307 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 10: to war maker to peacemaker and that's his frustration obviously 308 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 10: this morning. But Rick just used the word the magic 309 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 10: of Donald Trump, and to me, that is the right word, 310 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,479 Speaker 10: but it's in a different context. It's the magical thinking 311 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 10: of this administration. And you heard it in the clip 312 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 10: with JD. 313 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 1: Vance. 314 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 10: He says, a week ago around was close to nuclear weapons. 315 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 10: We haven't been provided evidence of that, but assuming they were, 316 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 10: he says, now they are incapable of building nuclear weapons 317 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 10: because we destroyed their capacity. We haven't seen evidence of that. 318 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 10: But assuming even that's correct, he says, he is benching 319 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 10: all of his hope on the future, on the hope 320 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 10: they don't rebuild. And that's where this all falls apart. 321 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 10: The objective of the US, the administration said, was to 322 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 10: destroy long term their nuclear capacity, and what we have 323 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 10: done is incentivized who ever is in power in Iran 324 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,439 Speaker 10: not only to build those weapons, but rebuild them if 325 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 10: they've been destroyed. They have the know how and the 326 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,719 Speaker 10: ability to do both of those things. And that's why 327 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 10: this attack does not make sense in the short term. 328 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 10: It may, I mean, it makes sense in the short term, 329 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 10: but in the long term it does not, as we've 330 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 10: given greater incentive, not just to Iran, but the rest 331 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 10: of the world. Don't end up like Ukraine, be like 332 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,640 Speaker 10: North Korea, be like Iran. Rebuild those weapons under a great, 333 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 10: big mountain because that's the only deterrence you'll have. So JD. 334 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 10: Vans and the President can talk about hope, but there's 335 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 10: no leader in the world in Iran who's gonna say 336 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 10: let's just give up these this ability to make these weapons, 337 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 10: because otherwise they know they're open to the attack they 338 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:50,360 Speaker 10: saw over the weekend. 339 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 2: Well, the president's carrying with him what he seems to 340 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 2: think is momentum here Rick. He's referring on social media 341 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 2: to having made peace abroad, it is time now to 342 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 2: turn to other issues, including domestic priorities. But he's first 343 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 2: got this NATO summit where he's just now expected to 344 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 2: be arriving, and on the way, he decided to post 345 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 2: on social media a personal message from the Secretary General 346 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 2: of NATO. It looks like screen grabs from a text. 347 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 2: It's hard to tell exactly what he's got here. Allah 348 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 2: reading the Bill Belichick letter out loud, he posts this 349 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 2: on Truth with a message from Mark Ruda saying Europe 350 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 2: is going to pay in a big way as they 351 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 2: should and it will be your win. Safe travels, see 352 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 2: you at His Majesty's dinner, Mark Ruda. Is that the 353 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 2: way to start a summit? 354 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 9: Well, It's certainly a good way to get some true 355 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 9: love from Donald Trump. And we know that everybody since 356 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 9: the election six months ago has been trying to find 357 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 9: ways to communicate effectively with this president. It's not easy. 358 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 9: I think this is a tactic that obviously the Secretary 359 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,959 Speaker 9: General is employing to get the best pa. 360 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 2: He didn't think anybody was going to see it, though, Rick, 361 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 2: you remember when Donald Trump put Lindsey Graham's cell phone 362 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 2: number on TV. Isn't this kind of the same thing. 363 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 9: Yeah, I was there when Donald Trump gave everybody out 364 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 9: in graham selphone number, and frankly, it was the best 365 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 9: thing that happened to Lindsay in that whole primary. But 366 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 9: I think everyone's finding their place with him. Anybody who 367 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 9: sends Donald Trump a note who doesn't believe that it 368 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 9: has the chance of showing up on the front page 369 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 9: of the New York Times is naive. And I would 370 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 9: never call the Secretary General of NATO naive. 371 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 6: Well, as we consider questions around NATO, Genie, it's also 372 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 6: worth pointing out the President was asked about whether the 373 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,160 Speaker 6: US would commit to the mutual defense of its NATO 374 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 6: allies upon his departure, and he said, it depends on 375 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 6: your definition of that Article five obligation to quote Article 376 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 6: five directly. The parties agree that an armed attack against 377 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 6: one or more of them in Europe or North America 378 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 6: shall be considered an attack against them all. And consequently 379 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 6: they agree that if an arm attack occurs, each of 380 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,919 Speaker 6: them will assist the party or parties so attacked. Is 381 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 6: there any real gray area. 382 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 10: In terms of this definition, not in terms of the 383 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 10: clear letter of the law or the agreement as it is, 384 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 10: But of course Donald Trump can read it in a 385 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 10: different way, and other people have as well, and so 386 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 10: I don't think any of our allies in NATO are 387 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 10: surprised when he says what he said. And I think, 388 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 10: you know, he has been pushing them to increase their 389 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 10: commitments to their own defense, and I think there is 390 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 10: a positive side for that. He sees that, and he 391 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 10: has a point in that. But the downside of that is, 392 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 10: of course the United States ability to have sway over 393 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,640 Speaker 10: those members simply because of our ability to help defend 394 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 10: them is on the losing side of that. So there 395 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 10: is a plus side and a downside. And Donald Trump, 396 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 10: we've long known, has very strong feelings about NATO and 397 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 10: the United States role in it, And one thing we've 398 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 10: learned from this attack in Iran is he doesn't really 399 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 10: see the need to go to allies. If we're going 400 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 10: to attack, he'd rather we do it on our own. 401 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 10: So he's an interventionist, and he's an interventionist who is 402 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 10: something like the old style cowboys in the West. He 403 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 10: will go it alone. And so I think that's what 404 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 10: we're seeing with NATO. 405 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 2: I think he would love to hear you say that, Jeanie. 406 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 2: What does Vladimir Zelenski think about all of this? Rick? 407 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 9: First all, I would like to add that Israel is 408 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 9: our ally in the region and they were integral to 409 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 9: the attack on the nuclear plants in Iran. So it 410 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 9: may be alone, but it's with our best trusted ally 411 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 9: in the region flying cover for us. Look, Latimer's Lensy's 412 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 9: got to be thrilled. Donald Trump's going to be in 413 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 9: a good mood when he shows up in NATO, and 414 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 9: Lensky knows what it's like to have a president from 415 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 9: the United States who's in a sour mood. So I 416 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 9: got to believe he sees this as a positive in 417 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 9: the sense that look at what has been accomplished. Since 418 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,679 Speaker 9: Trump's presidency, all these NATO countries have now more than 419 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 9: doubled their commitment financially based on GDP to NATO and 420 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 9: the defense of Europe, which includes in their definition, helping 421 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 9: Vladimir's Lensky. So Zelenski looks at Europe and says, Wow, 422 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 9: I'm getting a significantly better deal now than I had 423 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 9: in the previous administration. From that, and now I've got 424 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,639 Speaker 9: to try and work my own magic on Donald Trump. 425 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 9: There is an effort in Congress to get additional aid 426 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 9: to the Ukrainians sometime soon, and Lindsey Graham will tell 427 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 9: you that he's got virtually one hundred percent of the 428 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 9: United States Senate willing to support it, and he's got 429 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 9: to figure out a way to get something onto the 430 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 9: President's steps, taking a path through the House of Representatives. So, 431 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 9: if I'm Vladimir's Lenski, I see opportunity on the horizon. 432 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 9: I know I've got a challenge at home, but abroad 433 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 9: looking better. 434 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 6: All Right, Rick Davis and Jeanie shanzeno our political panel 435 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,640 Speaker 6: on this Tuesday, Thank you so much, And up next 436 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 6: we'll turn from geopolitics to happenings here at home, specifically 437 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 6: in New York City, where the Democratic mayoral primary is 438 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 6: taking place today. We'll take stock of that race next 439 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 6: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 440 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 441 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 442 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,120 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up. 443 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 444 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 445 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 6: It's a brutal day of heat in the nation's capital, 446 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 6: though it's not unique to us today, with one hundred 447 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 6: degree temperatures, it's kind of an East Coast wide problem 448 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,360 Speaker 6: all the way up the End Corridor to New York 449 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 6: City as well. We're also in triple digit temperatures, which 450 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 6: could potentially have implications for turnout on a day of 451 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 6: voting in New York City. Of course, the Democratic mayoral 452 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 6: primary is being held today in In addition to turnout questions, 453 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 6: Joe as we look at the candidates from a close race, 454 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 6: specifically with front runners Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor, 455 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 6: and Zoeann Raumdani. Whether or not weather makes a difference, 456 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 6: but also the fact that this rink choice voting is 457 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 6: in play and how that ultimately influences the outcome of 458 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 6: who ultimately will be the Democratic can't think it. 459 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 2: Was eight rounds last time. Yeah, took two weeks to 460 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 2: figure out who the winner was, and we could be 461 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 2: in for something like that on this primary day with 462 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 2: yes See, we're triple digits one hundred and two degrees 463 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 2: right now in New York City with big questions about turnout. Incidentally, 464 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 2: it's seventy degrees in the Hague right now, where President 465 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 2: Trump has just arrived. We want to keep tabs on 466 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 2: his trip to the NATO summit, as we were just 467 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 2: showing our viewers on Bloomberg TV a shot of Air 468 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 2: Force one just touching down. But we do want to 469 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 2: focus on New York City politics, which is something we 470 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 2: don't always get a chance to do, and on this 471 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,640 Speaker 2: primary day, it's a treat to bring in Matt Taglia, 472 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 2: senior director for Emerson College Polling. We go to my 473 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 2: alma mater in this case, Kayleie, to find out what's 474 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 2: happening here because the numbers are pretty fascinating. 475 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 3: Matt. 476 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 2: Before we get to your research, welcome to Bloomberg's TV 477 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 2: and radio. Are we making too much about the weather here, 478 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 2: could this depressed turnout and impact the results, maybe work 479 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 2: against and Andrew Cuomo in this case. 480 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I think anything is possible, certainly, But 481 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 8: I tend to believe that if folks want to vote, 482 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 8: they're going to end up voting. So I wouldn't put 483 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:43,439 Speaker 8: too too much stock into the weather today, but it 484 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,960 Speaker 8: could certainly affect turnout just on the margins. 485 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 6: Okay, well, when we consider it, those two New Yorkers 486 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,360 Speaker 6: may feel passionate about turning out for your latest primary, 487 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 6: leading up or pull rather. Leading up to the primary 488 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 6: today found that there was more support for Cuomo at 489 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 6: thirty five percent, with Mom Donnie at thirty two percent. 490 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,400 Speaker 6: But in rank choice voting a simulation over eight rounds, 491 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 6: it's actually Mom Donnie who was in the lead fifty 492 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 6: two to forty eight for Cuomo. So how should we 493 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,159 Speaker 6: be considering that dynamic as we await these results to 494 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 6: coming in, knowing that if no one gets over fifty percent, 495 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,160 Speaker 6: this is going into more rounds. 496 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,960 Speaker 8: Yeah, and you know, I do expect us to go 497 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 8: into more rounds past the first round. Certainly, we had 498 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 8: eight rounds in our polling. As you said, Cuomo at 499 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 8: thirty five in the initial ballot, Mam Donnie at thirty two. 500 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 8: And you know, when we get to that seventh round, 501 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 8: we see that Cuomo has a slightly at forty one, 502 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 8: Mam Donni at thirty nine, and then Lander at twenty percent. 503 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 8: So that Lander vote is really what determines the final round. 504 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 8: And in this case we find that Mom Donnie benefits 505 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 8: the most there he gets to fifty two percent with 506 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 8: Cuomo at forty eight. 507 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 2: Wow, I'm compelled by this idea. This has a lot 508 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,239 Speaker 2: to do, I guess with New York politics more than 509 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 2: anything that today may not actually be conclusive at all. 510 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 2: When we consider what could happen. Matt, Cuomo and Mamdannie 511 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 2: could still choose to run as independence or with a 512 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 2: third party, setting up the potential for a four way 513 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 2: race with Eric Adams. How likely is that to happen? 514 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 8: Well, you know, I don't want to speak for the 515 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 8: campaigns and the individuals for what their intentions are, but 516 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 8: it does seem like we are set up for a 517 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 8: potential messy situation in the general election. I think, you know, 518 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 8: it seems likely that Cuomo wants to run regardless. I'm 519 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 8: not sure about Mom Donnie, but you know, I regardless 520 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 8: of what we see tonight, I think that once we 521 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 8: do get into that ranked choice, we're going to see 522 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 8: pretty close election results here. So you know, I really 523 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 8: don't think that there's going to be a an overwhelming 524 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 8: victory for one or the other. 525 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 6: Well, when we consider the factors that ultimately may determine 526 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:14,320 Speaker 6: this outcome, what should in terms of issues in particular, 527 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 6: and what these various candidates, not just of course the 528 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 6: front runners, but all eleven candidates in this primary trying 529 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 6: to differentiate themselves on what appears to be resonating the 530 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 6: most with New York City voters. 531 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 8: Well, I think that housing is probably the top issue 532 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 8: right now for New York voters. You know, the Donnie 533 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 8: campaign has really taken that and run with it. I 534 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 8: think that's why we've seen his campaign have such a trajectory. 535 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 8: I mean, in February, when we first started polling the race, Mom, 536 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 8: Donnie was at one or two percent, and now he's 537 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 8: at thirty two percent in that initial vote. So I 538 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 8: think it's clear that that message has been breaking through. 539 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,080 Speaker 8: You know, I don't know that almost messaging on that 540 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 8: has broken through as much. He sort of stayed around 541 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 8: this thirty five percent mark throughout the election. But I 542 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 8: think that that is top of mind for voters right now. 543 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 2: Matt Taglia, the idea of rank choice voting is still 544 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 2: somewhat foreign to a good number of our viewers and listeners. 545 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 2: Does it change your job as a polster when it 546 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 2: comes to predicting the outcome of these races? 547 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 8: Yeah, it absolutely does, you know. For one, you know, 548 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 8: when we conduct this poll, we try to emulate the 549 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 8: New York ballot as closely as we can, and so 550 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 8: we ask votes for their top five choices, eliminating whoever 551 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 8: their previous choice was. And so when we get that 552 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 8: data back, you know, it's a little bit of a mess, frankly, 553 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 8: but we have ways of simulating exactly what New York 554 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 8: will do when they count these ballots, when they tabulate 555 00:30:55,080 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 8: these ranked choice tabulations, and so there is a bit 556 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 8: more work that goes into it. And as far as 557 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 8: interpreting the results, you know, that's that's tough because you know, 558 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 8: as you see, we have to go through eight rounds 559 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 8: in order to get to a majority winner, and we 560 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 8: have to consider each and every single candidate and where 561 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 8: their vote is going to go. So in this case, though, 562 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 8: I think it's most helpful to look at these final 563 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 8: rounds where we have Lander around twenty percent in the 564 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 8: second to last and how that vote ends up splitting, 565 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 8: which is about two to one in our polling for 566 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 8: Mom Donnie versus Quomo. 567 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 6: Well, I also wonder how financing and funding of these 568 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 6: campaigns in a ring choice system factors in. And I 569 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 6: should note on funding that Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder 570 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 6: and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, which is the parent 571 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 6: company of this network, has contributed to a pack supporting 572 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 6: Andrew Cuomo. He has endorsed him. But how should we 573 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 6: be considering the money factor in this race in particular? 574 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 8: I think that the money factor is certain important, but 575 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 8: I think there's also something to be said for grassroots 576 00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 8: campaigns and energy on the ground. You know, that's something 577 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 8: that money can't necessarily capture. Money absolutely matters, certainly, but 578 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 8: there's that grassroots element. There's a strategic element here. You know, 579 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 8: as we said, with ranked choice voting, this is very 580 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 8: different from a typical primary or typical general election. You're 581 00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 8: ultimately going to be dependent upon folks who aren't casting 582 00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 8: a ballot for you in the first place, right, So 583 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 8: you want to make sure that you're the second or third, 584 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 8: or fourth or fifth choice for those folks as well. 585 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,239 Speaker 8: So there's a lot, there's a lot to it. There 586 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 8: are a lot of elements at play here, and funding 587 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 8: again very important, but strategy and a strong ground game, 588 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 8: I think, but really really make. 589 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 6: The difference here, all right. Matt Taglia, we appreciate it. 590 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 6: He's senior director for Emerson College pulling joining us here 591 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 6: in Balance of Power on this New York Democratic mayor 592 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 6: a primary day. We appreciate it so much. 593 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 594 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,160 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 595 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,800 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 596 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 597 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.