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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? Five dollars?

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Speaker 1: This is a regal leon happny tackle ship one man.

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Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be human? My goodness, that miss good.

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Speaker 2: I suppose the best, relentless refusing to give up? All right,

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Speaker 2: hit that horn Burgless?

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Speaker 1: What's up? Everyone? Happy? Howadays?

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Speaker 2: And Welcome to the week sixteen banditsy flex Prop Podcast

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Speaker 2: presented by Prize Picks. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, joined

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Speaker 2: as always by my dude, Seawan Kerner Sean Happy, Howadays?

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Speaker 1: Happy holidays? Brother, Got any big plans or just keeping

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Speaker 1: it chill, just.

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Speaker 2: Keeping it chot me there. If you haven't heard, there's

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Speaker 2: football on on Christmas though.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we got Brown Brown talk about it and

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Speaker 1: then Cardinals coult right, Yeah, two good games.

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Speaker 2: So we'll talk about the Saturday slate, the Christmas slate

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Speaker 2: on this show. But yeah, I'm just gonna hang around here.

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Speaker 2: Went back to New York for Thanksgiving, so I'm chow

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Speaker 2: out in Cali. But uh yeah, on this pod, we

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Speaker 2: will talk about the Saturday slate. We'll talk briefly about

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Speaker 2: the Sunday Showdown slate as well, and then we'll give

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Speaker 2: our top five props each for the week using the

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Speaker 2: prize pick lines. So a lot to get to it

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Speaker 2: started off with the Saturday slate. It's a two game slate, Shawn,

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned, h So that quarterback, you know, not

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Speaker 2: really much you can do as far as his value.

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Speaker 2: It's there's four guys that you're really considering. I'm going

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers in you know, highest exposure.

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Speaker 1: He's my quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Three on the week, and uh, you know, obviously we

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Speaker 2: would like to have Valdez scanting back, but Rogers has

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Speaker 2: been so consistent in a year where a lot of

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Speaker 2: players and quarterbacks haven't, and Cleveland is twenty third in

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Speaker 2: past defense.

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Speaker 1: DVOA should be a bit.

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Speaker 2: Healthier this week than they've been, you know, obviously last week.

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Speaker 2: But I still think Rogers in Lambeau where they cover

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Speaker 2: about you know, sixty eight percent sixty nine percent of

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Speaker 2: the time, it should have a good game here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he can't go wrong with Rogers right now. Clearly,

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Speaker 1: the toes not you know, he might be in pain,

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Speaker 1: but it's not impacting his play enough to you know,

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Speaker 1: downgrade him like I was the past couple of games,

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Speaker 1: But I'm going with Kyler here. I just think this

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Speaker 1: is a bounce back spot. You know, the Colts is

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Speaker 1: a you know, it's a pass funnel matchup. So I

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Speaker 1: don't think you go wrong with either of these top

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Speaker 1: two quarterbacks. But I will say, you know, the chances

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Speaker 1: of a guy like Carson Wentz outscoring Kyler or Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers is probably higher than the market realizes. Clearly, you know,

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Speaker 1: Wentz is not even close to their tier, But I

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Speaker 1: think it's still worth maybe taking a flyer on a

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Speaker 1: Wentz or maybe even a Mayfield just because the perception

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Speaker 1: projections versus you know, variants and all this, Like the

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Speaker 1: chance of Carson Wentz actually breaking this light is higher

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Speaker 1: than the market realizes. So I might have a couple

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Speaker 1: Wentz Pittman stacks. But but yeah, you can't go wrong

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Speaker 1: with either Kyler or Rodgers here.

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Speaker 2: So you like Wentz over Mayfield, he starts for Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have Wentz just projected a couple more points

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Speaker 1: than Mayfield. I just don't think Mayfield has a high

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Speaker 1: floor or ceiling. So if I was going to go,

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Speaker 1: you know, dumpster diving on this. I'd prefer to go Wentz.

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Speaker 1: They at least let him air it out every game.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's checking it deep at some point. So

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Speaker 1: I think this is a matchup where last week, you

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Speaker 1: know that the Colts got to, you know, be really

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Speaker 1: conservative after he took an early lead. So I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, got like Wentz could surprise here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it just comes down to the implied

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Speaker 2: point total. I mean, you have Cleveman is a seven

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Speaker 2: point seven and a half point underdog, whereas the Colts are,

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Speaker 2: you know, just a one point underdog in a little

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Speaker 2: that's higher that is, you know, played in decent in

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Speaker 2: good conditions as opposed to the Packers game. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I would lean Wentz over Mayfield as well among those

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Speaker 2: bottom two running back So you know, I don't think

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Speaker 2: we have to talk about Jonathan Taylor jam him in

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Speaker 2: that so more so the values. I mean, even Nick

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Speaker 2: Chubb is kind of you know right there. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he's a top five running back for me this week.

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Speaker 2: I think we talked about that on the on the

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Speaker 2: main Sweet Show. But as far as these value guys,

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Speaker 2: because these are the guys you the decision is not

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Speaker 2: as clear the guy that stands out to me is

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Speaker 2: Chase Edmonds at forty seven hundred. You know, going in

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Speaker 2: this kind of game where the Colts have been really

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Speaker 2: good defending backs right like like running the ball. So

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Speaker 2: I don't know if this is a James Connor game

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Speaker 2: just by you know, giving the matchup and also you

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Speaker 2: know Cardinals big bounce back spot after getting embarrassed by

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Speaker 2: the Lions last week. You know, I think I think

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Speaker 2: against the Colts, you know, it's they're never gonna just

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Speaker 2: like have a positive game script throughout. I don't think

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Speaker 2: because the Colts have been playing really well, Tailor is

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Speaker 2: going to keep a minute. So I think it could

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Speaker 2: be kind of a back and forth affair where the

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Speaker 2: Cardinals used their passing down back.

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Speaker 1: Who is Edmunds a bit more here?

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Speaker 2: So that's the guy that kind of stands out to

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Speaker 2: be He's forty seven hundred on DK.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right there with you on Edmunds. He's just

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Speaker 1: too cheap. And this this slate is pretty brutal at

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Speaker 1: running back. Like you said, Jonathan Taylor is a must play.

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Speaker 1: He's worth every single penny on any slate really, but

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Speaker 1: this one especially. So Yeah, when I'm looking down at

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Speaker 1: the bottom. Chase Edmunds sticks out. Connor's dealing with a

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Speaker 1: hip injury, I believe, so they might, you know, ease

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Speaker 1: up his workflow regardless here. And you know this is

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Speaker 1: a matchup where you know, the Colts are a pass

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Speaker 1: funnel team. They're they're really hard to run against, so

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Speaker 1: this could be a Chase Edmunds game. So say, like this,

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Speaker 1: he's a no brainer. And you mentioned Nick Chubb last week.

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Speaker 1: I actually lowered Nick Chubb's yards per Russia attempt to

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Speaker 1: like four point three, which is bonkers because I always

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Speaker 1: says it's always a blend of He's one of the

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Speaker 1: best peer runners in the league and a great offensive line,

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Speaker 1: but they were missing two to three offensive lineman. Looks

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Speaker 1: like JC Tretder was just placed on the COVID list,

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Speaker 1: so we'll have to see if Jedrick Wills comes back.

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Speaker 1: But right now, Chubb is just simply a volume guy.

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Speaker 1: I'm not giving a much efficiency, so you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not all in Nick Chubb like I usually am if

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Speaker 1: his offensive line is out. But that was worth pointing

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Speaker 1: out that it was the first week, right and have

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Speaker 1: Chubb over a five yards per attempt average, So just

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Speaker 1: putting that out there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Green Bay's twenty fifth in run defense

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Speaker 2: stev oay, So this is a Chubb type of game,

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Speaker 2: I think, regardless.

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Speaker 1: I mean every game has volume volume for sure. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you got to keep it close against Rogers here.

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Speaker 2: You can't let them. Like if Cleveland goes down to

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Speaker 2: the scores against a team like this, it's over. They

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Speaker 2: don't even have a guy like, you know, Baltimore at

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Speaker 2: hunt We last.

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Speaker 1: Week could escape contained.

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Speaker 2: You know, Mayfield can't do that, So yeah, it would

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Speaker 2: be tough, all right. Wide receiver. The guy we talked

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Speaker 2: about earlier in the week, Christian Kirk. You know, I

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Speaker 2: think we both have him as a top twenty borderline

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Speaker 2: top fifteen wide receiver this week.

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Speaker 1: He's fifty four hundred, So he.

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Speaker 2: Kind of stands out to me as a guy I'm

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Speaker 2: targeting at the position.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Kirk for me as well, both of these like

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Speaker 1: five K guys, Kirk and Pittman stand out. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's DeVante Adams tier By himself and then it's Kirk

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Speaker 1: Pittman and that's a pretty big drop off. So this

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Speaker 1: is a really rough wide receiver slate. But I like

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Speaker 1: Pittman at five K. Like I said, you know, this

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Speaker 1: Colts passing attack should bounce back this week. They took

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Speaker 1: an early lead against the Pats and didn't really you know,

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Speaker 1: have to throw much. But you know, Pittman still saw

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Speaker 1: a target on thirty three percent of his routes, so

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Speaker 1: he's still the alph in this offense. So a game

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Speaker 1: like this where should be much more competitive, and it

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Speaker 1: was a tough matchup against the Patriots. We talked about

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Speaker 1: heading into the game they were going to scheme potentially

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Speaker 1: to slow down pitting, and they did just that. So

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Speaker 1: I think Pittman's a bounce back candidate at five K.

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Speaker 1: Has touched on upside. So like Pittman and Kirk on

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Speaker 1: the site.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and then some other guys I mentioned kind of

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Speaker 2: dumpster diving here Antoine Wesley.

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Speaker 1: He's questionable, but if he suits up.

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Speaker 2: I think you gotta get him in some of those,

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Speaker 2: you know, tournament lineups because he's a guy that's gonna

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Speaker 2: he's pretty much there one for one replacement for DeAndre Hopkins,

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Speaker 2: so it's not like they're increasing you know, other guys

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Speaker 2: as much. You know, Kirk obviously becomes the number one receiver,

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Speaker 2: but he was already on the field most most of

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Speaker 2: the time anyway, but Wesley kind of subs in there,

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Speaker 2: and even if Rondell Moore is healthy, usually Wesley is

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Speaker 2: still getting you know, eighty eighty five ninety percent of

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Speaker 2: the route. So I really like Wesley in this spot.

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Speaker 2: And then for the Packers, looks like Valdez Scantling's going

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Speaker 2: to be out, which that then ow opens up, you know,

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Speaker 2: the third wide receiver spot, which you always got to

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Speaker 2: kind of pay attention to when Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's going to be a mix.

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Speaker 2: Here of Juwan Winfrey and Equanimious Saint Brown. Now Saint

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Speaker 2: Brown did practice, but Winfrey has kind of been the guy,

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Speaker 2: you know, like when he's active, you know, he tends

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Speaker 2: to be involved in the passing game plan. So he's

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Speaker 2: off the injury list, whereas Saint Brown is still on

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Speaker 2: it even though he's practicing. Malik Taylor hasn't practiced. I

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Speaker 2: think he's going to be out. And then Amari Rodgers

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Speaker 2: is more of like the slot receiver and just hasn't

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Speaker 2: really seen a bumping playing time even with MVS out.

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Speaker 2: So Saint Brown and Winfrey have been the two guys

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Speaker 2: that have kind of, you know, run a route, you know,

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Speaker 2: FoST of fifty percent of the time when Valdez Scantling

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Speaker 2: is out.

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Speaker 1: So I think those both of those guys are worth mentioning.

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Speaker 2: But I kind of wenten scored Winfrey because he just

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Speaker 2: seems to be more involved in the past game when

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Speaker 2: he is indeed active, and he got signed to the

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Speaker 2: active roster.

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Speaker 1: Nice. Yeah, I love the Wesley call. I'm not seeing

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Speaker 1: any updates on his injury, says, I'm assuming he's gonna play,

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Speaker 1: but it looks like Rondelle Moore should miss. They just

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Speaker 1: had the practice report today that he didn't he wasn't

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Speaker 1: able to practice, and he's the only an ankle injury,

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Speaker 1: and his playing style kind of need his ankle to

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Speaker 1: be one hundred percent. So Wenby's president if more sit

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Speaker 1: so Wesley, there's no printer play at three k especially,

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Speaker 1: I'll say like this, but I wonder if Andy Isabella

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Speaker 1: is a wild ass dart throw now. I mean, all

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Speaker 1: he needs is one deep ball on a site like this,

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Speaker 1: so I might have I'm definitely gonna have some Wesley shares,

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Speaker 1: but I might sneak in a couple Andy Isabella lineups.

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Speaker 1: If Rondelle Moore is out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Wesley ran a round on eighty three percent of

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Speaker 2: the drop back and then more and Isabella combined for

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Speaker 2: fifty one percent. Last week, Green was at sixty eight percent.

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Speaker 2: Now obviously there was some at the end they waved

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Speaker 2: the white flag, so I think we will be a

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Speaker 2: little higher. But yeah, Isabelle is kind of a guy.

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Speaker 2: He's low, you know, low probability of hitting. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: he would be that number four receiver in a four

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Speaker 2: receiver offense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if we were playing on like a ten game slate,

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Speaker 1: we wouldn't even considering Isabella or Juwan Winfrey. But since

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Speaker 1: it's just two games, you got to get creative. Why

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Speaker 1: not have a couple of those flyers out there hight end?

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Speaker 2: Obviously, you know, zach Ertz is you know, the most

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Speaker 2: expensive for a reason. He's questionable. Another guy that I

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Speaker 2: you know, as far as I know, he's going to

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Speaker 2: go here, so we won't really talk about him there.

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Speaker 2: But if you're kind of pivoting away from him, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna drop down in salary. And there's a bunch of

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Speaker 2: uninspiring options, especially with Hooper active. Now you got you know, Nadjoku,

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Speaker 2: who's questionable by the way, you know, Harrison Bryant, who's questionable.

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Speaker 2: Both of them, as far as I know, should play.

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Speaker 2: You never know what these things COVID and whatnot, but

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Speaker 2: those guys should play, So that that kind of complicates

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Speaker 2: things In Cleveland. I think an interesting dart throw again

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Speaker 2: because it's it is a small slate, is Josiah Daguara.

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Speaker 2: Who are the Packers Because with mvs out Randall Cobbow,

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Speaker 2: you know, there is an opportunity for somebody to be

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Speaker 2: you know, outside in the running backs. You know, especially

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Speaker 2: Jones is going to get his, but there's an opportunity

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Speaker 2: for somebody to step up at that like third pass

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Speaker 2: catcher role. Lazard is the favorite, but we've seen some

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Speaker 2: games where he kind of goes quiet. Obviously he's a

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Speaker 2: decent play as well, But at tight end, I think Daguar,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's run a route on around sixty percent

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Speaker 2: of the drop backs for three straight games, double what

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Speaker 2: Marcedes Lewis is doing, and he is kind of that

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Speaker 2: move tight end, that true one for one replacement for

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Speaker 2: Robert Tunyan. So at some point I think this is

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Speaker 2: going to translate into some production, maybe a touchdown or

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Speaker 2: something like that. He has three catches and back to

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Speaker 2: back games, which is kind of worth noting us on

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Speaker 2: a two games slate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the Daguara call as well. He's he's

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Speaker 1: had two or more catches in seven straight games. Now,

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Speaker 1: I believe with the guy, like you know, potentially MBS

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Speaker 1: being out, he could see next to target to love Deguara,

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Speaker 1: and he's kind of growing into that Tony in Roll.

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Speaker 1: So you know, he still hasn't even reached his ceiling

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Speaker 1: yet in my opinion, So love him on this slate.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to pivot off him. Even

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Speaker 1: Moeli Cox is interesting. He hasn't done jack shit for

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Speaker 1: like two months now, but he did lead their tight

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Speaker 1: end rotation in routs round last week at sixty four percent.

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Speaker 1: Kyvin Granson was completely out of the rotation. I don't

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Speaker 1: think he logged a snap last week. So Moley Cox

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Speaker 1: is one of those guys where you know, I'm not

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Speaker 1: banking on four catches and sixty yards. I'm banking on

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Speaker 1: just one Troll touchdown, please, MOLLI. And you know he's

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Speaker 1: one of those guys where he's the perfect end zone target.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's six foot nine or something three hundred pounds,

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Speaker 1: like he's a monster. So a slate like this, I

278
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Speaker 1: think Molei Cox is in play, especially just this this

279
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Speaker 1: tight end slate, like you said, it's zach Ertz then

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Speaker 1: a huge drop off. So if you're going to take

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Speaker 1: a flyer, I think Dogara makes the most sense, and

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Speaker 1: then Moeli Cox is probably my second choice.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, any love for Jack Doyle. He seems to have

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Speaker 2: a big game every like yeah, like two.

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Speaker 1: Blue Blue Moon. I think it's, yeah, a more competitive

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Speaker 1: game script like this, he could come into play. He's

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Speaker 1: been banged up recently, so maybe that's why he's seen

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Speaker 1: you know, his snaps take a head. So yeah, he's

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Speaker 1: he's always in play. I think there are games where

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Speaker 1: he's just like you know, Carson Wentz go to target,

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Speaker 1: especially on third down. So I think Doyle's certainly in

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Speaker 1: play as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean too, like, yeah, the last two games

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Speaker 2: he had one catch each, but the game before that

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Speaker 2: against Tampa six for eighty one, and then you know

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Speaker 2: the game before that three for thirty six, and you

297
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Speaker 2: know in the game before that three for thirty one,

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Speaker 2: so it's like he's been involved and he falls out,

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Speaker 2: but he could be could be due, So he's another one.

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Speaker 2: I think both of those coach tight ends. If you're

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Speaker 2: going to play Wentz you know and pivot off. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: one of the more expensive quarterbacks. That does make sense

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Speaker 2: to try to get a touchdown on on two games

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Speaker 2: late with one of those guys. All right, let's quickly

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Speaker 2: talk the Sunday showdown Slate Washington at Dallas. I'll have

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Speaker 2: a write up for this betting Wise and Actionnetwork Dot

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Speaker 2: Calm later in the week.

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Speaker 1: You should have check that out.

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Speaker 2: But Sean, where are you going for the captain spot

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Speaker 2: in this matchup?

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Speaker 1: It's got to be Ceedee Lamb all the way. He's

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Speaker 1: just been too dominant of late. I mean, really, Dallas

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Speaker 1: has so many options. You can go with a guy

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Speaker 1: like Schultz or you know, I love Michael Gallup, Amari

315
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Speaker 1: Cooper's due, so there's a lot of options here. I

316
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Speaker 1: think Zeke could be sneaky just because of how bad

317
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Speaker 1: he's been lately. But this is this is a game

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Speaker 1: script where it could be a Zeke game where he

319
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Speaker 1: gets you know, eighteen carries for sixty yards, but you know,

320
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Speaker 1: sneaks in the in zone a couple of times. So

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Speaker 1: I think just Zeke is an interesting leverage play because

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Speaker 1: I think his roster ship will be a little bit

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Speaker 1: too low here. And then on the Washington side, I

324
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Speaker 1: think the only guy you can really turn to is

325
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Speaker 1: Terry mccorran just because of his big play potential. This

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Speaker 1: should be a negative pass heavy kind of game script

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Speaker 1: for the football team. So I think McLaurin certainly has

328
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Speaker 1: the highest ceiling on their side and could be you know,

329
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Speaker 1: a slate winner in your cap and slut.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think McLaurin is actually a great fade.

331
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Speaker 2: I disagree there. I think I think I think too

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Speaker 2: many peop we're going to have him in a captain spot.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm saying if you go with somebody on

334
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Speaker 1: the Washington side. But like, I think it's gotta be Gibson.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Dallas is a run funnel d and if

336
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Speaker 2: you look at their metrics against number one receivers, they're

337
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Speaker 2: number one in DVOA while is to do it for

338
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Speaker 2: Von Diggs and then their third in fewest schedule adjusted

339
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Speaker 2: receiving yards allow per game to number one receivers at

340
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Speaker 2: forty nine point six according to Football Outsider, So like

341
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Speaker 2: I get that, Like, yeah, he has the highest probably

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Speaker 2: projected ceiling maybe outside of Gibson or even higher just

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Speaker 2: because he's a wide receiver. But I do think he's

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Speaker 2: gonna get that like twenty thirty forty percent maybe in

345
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Speaker 2: the captain spot, which to me, there's just more leverage

346
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Speaker 2: in a fade because there's there's a good possibility he

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Speaker 2: gets like four for fifty with no touchdowns or something

348
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Speaker 2: like that.

349
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Speaker 1: But yeah, love the CD Lamb call.

350
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Speaker 2: I actually think that he is, like, yeah, Cooper's do

351
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Speaker 2: Gallop all those guys. Shultz had the big game last game,

352
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Speaker 2: but Washington plays zone coverage at a top five or

353
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Speaker 2: eight yards per route run against zone coverage according to

354
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Speaker 2: Pro Football folkus Seedee Lamb two point two, Dalton Schultz

355
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 2: one point eight, Cooper one point six, Gallop one point zero.

356
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Speaker 2: So Seedee Lamb is is the clear, you know, top target,

357
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Speaker 2: most productive, most efficient, uh Dallas receiver against you know

358
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Speaker 2: this kind of defense. So I think, you know, Lamb,

359
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Speaker 2: he's still a top ten receiver in my in my rankings,

360
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Speaker 2: you know, I know, he's kind of it's kind of

361
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Speaker 2: been frustrating week to week with him and a lot

362
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Speaker 2: of these Dallas receivers. So but I do think it's

363
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Speaker 2: he's he's in a really good spot and and Dalton

364
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Speaker 2: Schotz would kind of be my number two pick. He's

365
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Speaker 2: he's been streaky, like he has a bunch of good

366
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Speaker 2: games and then he has a bunch of bad games.

367
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Speaker 2: So he had a good one against the Giants last week.

368
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Speaker 2: Maybe he kind of keeps it going here, So like

369
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Speaker 2: him as well. And obviously yeah, the ze College just

370
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Speaker 2: I mean, what do you think a Pollard in the

371
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Speaker 2: captain spot? Like, I know, we'll talk about him's probably

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Speaker 2: a key code regardless, but I mean, it seems like

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Speaker 2: this guy is just more efficient than Zeke every week.

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Speaker 1: He just doesn't quite get the red zone looks.

375
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Speaker 2: But if he breaks one, I mean I guess he

376
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:14,919
Speaker 2: could hit in the captain spot as well.

377
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Speaker 1: Right, Oh for sure. Yeah, I meant to include him,

378
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Speaker 1: and just the Dallas has so many options, But yeah,

379
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Speaker 1: I mean, he's been so banged up that I'm just

380
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Speaker 1: thinking if Dallas gets up by you know, let's say

381
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Speaker 1: fourteen or more points, who's going to get the garbage

382
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Speaker 1: time work. I think they're going to try to protect Pollard,

383
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Speaker 1: So you know, a guy like Corey Clement would probably

384
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Speaker 1: get mop up duty. So I think Pollard, Yeah, he's definitely.

385
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Speaker 1: I think he's better than Zeke on a touch per

386
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Speaker 1: touch basis. But oh yeah, he's just been so banged up.

387
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Speaker 1: I think they're going to try to find a way

388
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Speaker 1: to limit him. I don't think this football team is

389
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Speaker 1: going to keep it close. So I'm just worried that

390
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 1: if they do get up, they're going to try to

391
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Speaker 1: protect Pollard because he is that valuable to the team.

392
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Speaker 2: I mean last week against the Giants, they won twenty

393
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Speaker 2: one six, and the Giants never really felt like they

394
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Speaker 2: were in the game, and and Poward was coming back

395
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Speaker 2: off off the injury and he had fifteen touches for

396
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Speaker 2: eighty seven yard, So.

397
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean limiting. Then he got banged up, and yeah, yeah,

398
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Speaker 1: they're gonna have to stop doing that. But maybe, yeah,

399
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Speaker 1: maybe McCarthy's gonna keep playing him. And yeah, so Paullard

400
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 1: is definitely a sneaky and viable captain play for sure,

401
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Speaker 1: anyone else.

402
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 2: In terms of dfsche codes, Guy's a little lower down.

403
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Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned Antonio Gibson. I love Antony Gibson, especially.

404
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 1: Jad mcizick is out. He was placed on IR so

405
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: he's definitely gonna miss the next three games, so that

406
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 1: unlocks Gibson's receiving usage and his you know, ultimate upside. However,

407
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,680
Speaker 1: that Tow injury does scare me. You know, I was

408
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: watching that game. He he's a tough running back. I mean,

409
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,920
Speaker 1: he played through that chin injury. He tried to play

410
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 1: through this tow injury. He still has yet to practice.

411
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Speaker 1: So what I think is going to happen is he

412
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Speaker 1: toughs it up, suits up and plays. But you know,

413
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Speaker 1: I am worried he's gonna have an end game setback.

414
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Speaker 1: So I think a guy like Jared Patterson could be

415
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Speaker 1: sneaky even if Gibson plays. You know, he's he's a rookie.

416
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 1: They're trying to get him some work. So he's a

417
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Speaker 1: guy that could see more time than people think. Even

418
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Speaker 1: if Gibson plays, I think Patterson is actually a pretty

419
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Speaker 1: sneaky play here. And then you know, Ricky Seals Jones.

420
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Speaker 1: We've been trying to figure out how they're going to

421
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Speaker 1: handle this tight end rotation. Ricky Seals Jones, you know,

422
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Speaker 1: he ran rout sixty four percent of the time last week,

423
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 1: out running John Bates by quite a bit. And he's

424
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Speaker 1: you know he's the logical end zone target for Washington,

425
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Speaker 1: so I think Ricky Seals Jones in this spot is sneaky,

426
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Speaker 1: so I think he's a cheat code on the Washington side.

427
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Speaker 1: And then I haven't figured out how to sort out,

428
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Speaker 1: you know, the Humphrees, Chris Sims, those guys, you know,

429
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 1: they're heavily rotated. But out of that group, I think

430
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 1: Cam Sims probably has the highest upside, but it's kind

431
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 1: of a dumpster fire in this Washington side. What are

432
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 1: you thinking?

433
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, for Washington, Harder stands out to me because he's

434
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,880
Speaker 2: been running through a routes and Sims. But Dallas loves

435
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 2: to play man coverage and Carter has three touchdowns this

436
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 2: year versus man coverage and obviously limited staff, so he's

437
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 2: been able to win against man. And again, I think,

438
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,360
Speaker 2: if if you're like me and you think McLaren might

439
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 2: have some trouble here, you got to get somebody else going.

440
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 2: And Humphreys, the problem with him is he's just not

441
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 2: getting targets down the field.

442
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 1: He's not getting touchdowns.

443
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,879
Speaker 2: So I think Carter and then like you said, Simms,

444
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 2: who's essentially their new number two receiver on the outside,

445
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 2: or both and both of those guys will kind of

446
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 2: platoon in that role.

447
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 1: I think those guys are the two guys that you

448
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 1: look at.

449
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: But why not just play the Dallas defense specialties, you know,

450
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,120
Speaker 2: I mean this Washington you mentioned Gibson.

451
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 1: Has a toe issue.

452
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 2: Dallas does really well against number one receivers, so that

453
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 2: makes it difficult on McLaren. You know, this is just

454
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 2: a spot where I think Dallas's defense could could dominate.

455
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: And remember they they played really well against Washington the

456
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: first time. Obviously, you know it's a showdown state, so

457
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 2: both defenses are in play. But you know, Washington, oh,

458
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 2: double digit dog on a road. You know, they probably

459
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 2: have to get another like fluky pick six or something

460
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 2: like that fumble to hit value. But Dallas, I mean

461
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 2: Dallas could you know, give up under you know, twenty points.

462
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,199
Speaker 2: They could get a bunch of sacks with Parsons, They

463
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: could get picks with digs, especially if they go at

464
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: mcquarin aggressively. So yeah, I really like the Dallas defense

465
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 2: special teams, probably more than any of these other like

466
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 2: ancillary pass catchers, to be honest.

467
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think both defenses are in play, and if

468
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 1: you do play the Washington defense. You might as well

469
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 1: pair them up with down Day Carter, who's their return man.

470
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: Probably my favorite return man because if you ever you

471
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: see him get a touchback on a kickoff, he is

472
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 1: so pissed. He wants to return every kickoff. So love

473
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,880
Speaker 1: you know, kind of a sneaky stack of Carter and

474
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 1: the football defense. You know, in case he gets a

475
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: return touchdown, you get it counted twice.

476
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take I'll take me some powered with the

477
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 2: Dallas defense. Then he's got seventeen kick returns in a

478
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 2: touchdowns year. So at twenty eight point eight the yards

479
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 2: per kick return for Tony Potler. So he's pretty good.

480
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's pretty good. You got to get the blow

481
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 1: in his hands. All right.

482
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 2: Let's get to our props. Ten props of the week.

483
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 2: Five each we each do a quarterback to running back

484
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,239
Speaker 2: into receiving props. Sean, where are you going for your

485
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,640
Speaker 2: QB prop for Week sixteen?

486
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 1: So give me Drew Luck over one hundred and eighty

487
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 1: seven and a half passing yards against the Raiders. I

488
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,919
Speaker 1: don't think Drew Luck is a good quarterback, but this

489
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 1: number is way too low, and you know he's he

490
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 1: has enough skills to go over the number. He has

491
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 1: enough pass catchers to go over this number of Jerry

492
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 1: G d Courland, Sutton, Tim Patrick, Albert oh and the

493
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: Raiders ranked twenty fifth in DdO against the pass, So

494
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 1: I'm projecting this closer to two fifteen to twenty, which

495
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 1: still seems kind of low. So give me the value here.

496
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 1: I think this is probably twenty the thirty yards too low,

497
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 1: So give me over one hundred and seven and a

498
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: half passing yards for Drew Locka. Hopefully he doesn't hand

499
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: the ball to the other team. If does, yeah, he

500
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 1: has a throw more that'll work.

501
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 2: I'm going Joe Burrow over two hundred and forty five

502
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 2: and a half passing yards going back to the well.

503
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 2: Even though he disappointed me last week, he's still been

504
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 2: over this number in nine of fourteen games facing a

505
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 2: Ravens defense that's twenty ninetheen pass defense DVOA and really

506
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:20,159
Speaker 2: is just struggling with health concerns in the secondary. And

507
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 2: then if you look back to the first matchup with

508
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 2: these two teams, Burrow four hundred and sixteen yards against

509
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 2: the Ravens, who do like to play a lot of

510
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: man coverage, which the Bengals as we've talked about have

511
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 2: been very strong against in their pass offense. So I'm

512
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 2: projecting as closer to sixty five Sean, where are you

513
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 2: going with your running back prop?

514
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 1: So I'm going Devin Singletary over forty two and a

515
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 1: half rushing yards against the Patriots. You know, Zach Moss

516
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: was inactive again last week, Matt Brita only had one

517
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 1: rush attempt, and Devin Singletary is your new workhorse back

518
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 1: for the Bills. You know, he ran twenty two times

519
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: for eighty six yards and a touchdown. You know, the

520
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 1: Patriots priamary in a game plan to stop Devin Singletary,

521
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 1: so I'm sure they'll let him get you know, some

522
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,679
Speaker 1: chunk runs here. And with you know, no Cold Beasley,

523
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 1: potentially no Emmaniel Sanders, the Bills might be a little

524
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 1: bit more run heavy than we expect here. So I

525
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 1: think Singletary will easily clear this number with just you know,

526
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: ten to twelve rush attempts. So give me Devin Singletary

527
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 1: over forty two and a half rushing yards.

528
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Patriots would would not mind if Singletey got

529
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 2: you know, seventy to eighty yards. If I mind either

530
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 2: to forty yeah, yeah, all right. For my first running

531
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 2: back prop, I'm going with Josh Jacobs over twenty one

532
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards. He's been over in seven

533
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 2: of twelve on the season, but more importantly, he's been

534
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 2: over in each of the last five games. So this

535
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 2: line I think is about four yards too low. I

536
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 2: haven't projected at twenty five. The Broncos are twenty third

537
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: and DVA on passes to running backs, and I should

538
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: mention I also like the Jacobs rushing yardage prop over

539
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: forty nine and a half. He's been over that in

540
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 2: three of the last four games. Denver is also you know,

541
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 2: outside the top twenty in run defense, and Jacob's in

542
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 2: four career games against Denver averaging eighty five rushing yard.

543
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 1: So I have it at fifty six.

544
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 2: But that's still you know, almost eight yards over the

545
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 2: line for that, So we love both Jacob's overs this week.

546
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: Sean, where you're going for your so I note, I

547
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: think I'm gonna have to take a week off betting

548
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: on Josh Jacobs over rushing yards. I gotcha. Yeah, Bill

549
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: will win this week, don't worry. I was a week ahead.

550
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: So I'm going with James Connor under forty five and

551
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 1: a half rushing yards against the Colts. You know, Chase

552
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: Edmonds is back and he was easy in last week,

553
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: but he should, you know, see more work this week,

554
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: and that's gonna only eat into James Connor's rushing and

555
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 1: receiving share. Connor himself got banged up last week with

556
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 1: the heel injury, so he could be limited, and this

557
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: is a tough matchup. You know, the Colts have a

558
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,239
Speaker 1: really strong run defense. So when it surprised me if

559
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 1: the Cardinals throw a bit more here and Cardinal's gone.

560
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: You know, Connor's gone under this number in the past

561
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: two games and that was you know, they faced the Lions,

562
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 1: they had some good spots. So I think just everything's

563
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 1: going against Connor here. I'm projecting closer to you know,

564
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half and I think he has

565
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: a low four. So going with under forty five and

566
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: a half rushing yards for James Connoria Edmunds game.

567
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 2: As we talked about for my second running back prop,

568
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 2: I'm going with cor Daryl Patterson, my guy over forty

569
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 2: seven and a half rushing yards.

570
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 1: I'm buying the.

571
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: Dip here before that miserable eighteen yard game on eleven carries,

572
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 2: where he also got a touchdown overturned against the forty

573
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 2: nine Ers, who, by the way, are a top three

574
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 2: run defense, so that was kind of predictable. Patterson had

575
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 2: gone over forty seven and a half in three straight games.

576
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 2: He's facing a Lions defense that's fourth worst in DVOA

577
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 2: against the run. Fourteen different running backs or one per

578
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 2: game has topped this number against the Detroit Lions. So

579
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,479
Speaker 2: this is another one where I have it almost ten

580
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 2: yards high at fifty six. So going Patterson over forty

581
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 2: seven and a half against the Lions. All right, Chean,

582
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 2: where are you going with your first receiving prop?

583
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 1: So I'm getting pretty bold here. I'm going with Courtland

584
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 1: Sutton over twenty and a half receiving yards against the Raiders.

585
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: Talking about talk about buying the dip, right, Yeah you forgotten?

586
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: I haven't heard this guy. Is he on the Broncos

587
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 1: or so?

588
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 2: Yeah?

589
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 1: Yeah? So, I mean he's been absolutely brutal lately, there's

590
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: no denying it. He's failed to clear this ridiculously low

591
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 1: prop and four straight games. But I think it is

592
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 1: time to buy the dip on him, and I know,

593
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 1: he's on the injury report, so this is assuming he

594
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: suits up. But I think he gets an upgrade of

595
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 1: Drew Lock understandard. I mean, I watched some of the

596
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 1: film last week. There were plays where Jerry Judy was

597
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: wide open and Drew Lock still targeted Courtland Sutton. So

598
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: I've always thought that Locke under center helps Courtland Sutton.

599
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: So I think we could see Sutton bounce back. And

600
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 1: he cleared his number in eight of the first ten

601
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: games before the week eleven by so I realize how

602
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 1: bad he's been of late. But it's called buying the

603
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 1: Depp for a reason. I think we're getting the it's

604
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 1: way too low, and I think he, you know, has

605
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: a coming out party here and gets us, you know,

606
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: twenty five receiving yards to barely clear this.

607
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: In stacking Drew Locke and Courtland Sutton overs What could

608
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: go wrong?

609
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: What can go wrong?

610
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 2: All?

611
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: Right?

612
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 2: For my first receiving problem, going with old reliable Stefan

613
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 2: Diggs under sixty six and a half against the Patriots

614
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 2: on his receiving yards. He's been under this number in

615
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: three of the last five games, including a matchup with

616
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: the Patriots where he netted only fifty one yards in

617
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: a game script where they were trailing for a good

618
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 2: part of that game. And you just look at New

619
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 2: England and the metrics against number one receivers. I mean,

620
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 2: they bear out exactly what we think of when we

621
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: think of Belichick. They're allowing the fewest schedule adjusted yards

622
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: per game to number one receivers at forty six point

623
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: seven according to Football Outsiders, and they are number two

624
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 2: in DVOA against number one wide receivers. So I think

625
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 2: this number is about seven yards too high. I have it,

626
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 2: you know, just under sixty for Stefan Diggs here in

627
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: this matchup, So going digs under sixty six and a

628
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 2: half receiving yards. Sean, where you going with your second

629
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: receiving prop.

630
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: I'm going Jacoby Myers over forty three and a half

631
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: receiving yards against the Bills. I'm actually right in line

632
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: with this number right now, and it is a tough matchup.

633
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: But the reason I want to lock it in right

634
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 1: now is because you have Nelson Aguler on the concussion protocol,

635
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: Kendrick Bourne's on the COVID list, and Nikhil Harry is

636
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: even you know, bowling a hip injury. So if one

637
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 1: or more of those guys are ruled out, this number

638
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: is only going to go up. So that's why I

639
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: want to get in early. Take it at forty three

640
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 1: and a half, and he's he's had a really high

641
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: floor this season. He's gone over this and nine and

642
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: thirteen games. So a lot of reasons to kind of

643
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: get on this early in case one or more of

644
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 1: these wide receivers are ruled out.

645
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 2: If all the receivers are ruled out, do we see

646
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 2: Matthew Slater get a snap at a receiver?

647
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: Oh god, I would love that.

648
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 2: It's been like the first It would be like the

649
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: first time in like ten years. All right, pull my

650
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 2: second receiving prop. I'm going with my tight end one

651
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: of the week. Mark Andrews over fifty eight and a

652
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,719
Speaker 2: half receiving yards here against the Cincinnati Bengals. He's been

653
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 2: over this number in nine or fourteen games. Even if

654
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 2: Tyro Huntley starts, I don't think that's a problem at all,

655
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 2: because Huntley's just been forced feeding Mark Andrews the football,

656
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: and the Green Bay Packers couldn't stop it, you know,

657
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,479
Speaker 2: the Browns couldn't stop it. No one could stop it,

658
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: but Cincinnati they're dealing with some issues beyond just you know,

659
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 2: having a good week tight end, you know, coming to

660
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 2: the town here. They're twenty sixth in DVOA against the

661
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 2: position Logan Wilson, a Keen Davis Gaither, the linebackers are out,

662
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: so I think it's gonna be really tough to cover

663
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 2: him over the middle of the field. Cincinnati likes to

664
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 2: play his own coverage, so it's not like they could

665
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: just you know, get a safety on him on every

666
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 2: play or anything like that.

667
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna be tough here.

668
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: I'm projecting him for sixty six yards as a median,

669
00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 2: so I'm about eight yards higher than this number. So

670
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 2: like Mark Andrews over fifty eight and a half receiving

671
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: yards against the Bengals, all right, So that's going to

672
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 2: wrap it up.

673
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: For our top ten props.

674
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: To recap, Seawan is going with Drew Locke over one

675
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty seven and a half passing yards, Devin

676
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,959
Speaker 2: Singletary over forty two and a half rushing yards, James

677
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: Connor under forty five and a half rushing yards, Courtland

678
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: Sutton over twenty and a half receiving yards, and Jacoby

679
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 2: Myers over forty three and a half receiving yards.

680
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 1: I'm going Joe Burrow over two hundred and forty.

681
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 2: Five and a half passing yards, Josh Jacobs over twenty

682
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 2: one and a half receiving yards. Also like the Jacobs

683
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 2: over forty nine and a half rushing yards prop Pernero

684
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 2: Patterson over forty seven and a half rushing yards, Stefan

685
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 2: Diggs under sixty six and a half receiving yards, and

686
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 2: Mark Andrews over fifty eight and a half receiving yards.

687
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: Next up here on the Fantasy Flex is a segment

688
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 2: we call Awite entries, where Shawn and I dive into

689
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: the prize fixed app and compare our player projections to

690
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: the props to build some entry. Sean, what's your first

691
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 2: prize picked elite entry for late here in week sixty.

692
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: So my first pick is Drew Lock over one hundred

693
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: and eighty seven and a half passing yards against the Raiders. Now,

694
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: I'm not betting on the over because I think he's

695
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: a good quarterback. I'm betting on the over because I'm

696
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: projecting him closer to two hundred and twenty passing yards

697
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: in this game, and he's one of those followed up

698
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: quarterbacks where even if he does turn the ball over,

699
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: it only leads to him throwing the ball. More So,

700
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 1: he's sort of Jamis Winston esque in that regard, which

701
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: helps his passing yard prop. And he has a ton

702
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: of weapons on this offense. You know, Jerry Judy, Kortland,

703
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 1: Sutt and Tim Patrick both tight end, so I think

704
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: he takes advantage of that here. And the Raiders ranked

705
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 1: twenty fifth in DdO against the past, so all signs

706
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 1: point to Drew Lot going over one one hundred and

707
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: eighty seven and a half passing yards.

708
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 2: For my first prize pick Elit entry for Week sixteen,

709
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 2: I'm going with Josh Jacobs over twenty one and a

710
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 2: half for ceed yards. He's been over the number in

711
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 2: seven to twelve on the season, but more importantly each

712
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: of his last five games as he got over this

713
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 2: day year, denvers twenty thirty DVOA on passes the running back.

714
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 2: Jacobs is running a route on about sixty percent of

715
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 2: the Raiders drop back these days, which is about twenty

716
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 2: percent higher than he was earlier in the season. And

717
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,240
Speaker 2: remember there's no Kenyon Drake and Damon Rashard, just hasn't

718
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 2: taken as much of a role in that backfield as

719
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 2: Drake had previously, So Jacob over twenty one and a

720
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,919
Speaker 2: half receiving yards for me, Sean, where are you going

721
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 2: with your second prize pick Elite entry four week sixteen?

722
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 1: I am going with Devin Singletary over forty two and

723
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: a half rushing yards against the Patriots. You know, Zach

724
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: Moss was another healthy scratch again last week. Matt Brida

725
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: only had one carry, so Devin Singletary had twenty two

726
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 1: rushing attempts for eighty six yards. And you know, the

727
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 1: Bills aren't a run heavy team, but without Pol Beasley,

728
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: potentially without Manle Sanders, I think they do lean on

729
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 1: the run a little bit more here. And I can't

730
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: imagine Bill Belichick going out of his way to slow

731
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: down Devin Singletary and the Bill's rushing attack, So thank you.

732
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 1: We should have plenty of room to run here, and

733
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 1: he'll only need, you know, ten to twelve carries to

734
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 1: go over this. I'm projecting him closer to fourteen carries

735
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: for fifty four yards, so I think there's about ten

736
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: yards of valley on the over here. So give me

737
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 1: over forty two and a half rushing yards for Devin Singletary.

738
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 2: I'm taking Mark Andrews here over fifty eight and a

739
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:22,919
Speaker 2: half receiving yards, even over in nine or fourteen five

740
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 2: of the last six and Cincinnati's twenty six to DVOA

741
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 2: against tight ends. So I just do not think that

742
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 2: they're going to be able to stop Mark Andrews here

743
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 2: will just become a critical piece of this Ravens offense.

744
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: I have this at sixty six yards.

745
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 2: So Andrews is always, you know, right there with Markith Brown,

746
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 2: but he's really taken over at that Prove number one

747
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: Travis Couch, who like week in, week out player for

748
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 2: the Ravens, he so love Mark Andrews over fifty eight

749
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 2: and a half.

750
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: That's going to do it for our prize victory.

751
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 2: We'd entry for today the recap, John is going with

752
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 2: Drew Locke over one hundred and eighty seven and a

753
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 2: half pards and Devin Singletary over forty two and a

754
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 2: half rushing yards. I'm going with Josh Jacobs over twenty

755
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: one and a half receiving yards and Mark Andrews over

756
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,240
Speaker 2: fifty eight and a half receiving yards.

757
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 1: As a reminder, Prize Picks markets move.

758
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:16,439
Speaker 2: Do you want to get on it quickly in order

759
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 2: to lock in the best numbers. You have not created

760
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 2: a Prize Pick account yet, check out the link in

761
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 2: our episode description and numb atter first deposit up one

762
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:29,240
Speaker 2: hundred dollars, or you can visit prize picks dot com

763
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 2: and use the promo code action ten. That's act Ion

764
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 2: one zero.

765
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: All right, now back to the.

766
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 2: Show that is going to wrap it up for our

767
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 2: Week sixteen Fantasy Flex Props episode presented by Prize Picks.

768
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: Make sure you guys are safe out there, have a happy,

769
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 2: happy holidays. As always, you can find Sean on Twitter

770
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: at the Underscore Oddsmaker. You can find me at Chris

771
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 2: Raybond and find us at those same handles in the

772
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 2: Action Network. You can check out actionnetwork dot com for

773
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 2: a fantasy football content rankings, projections, fantasywabage dot com for

774
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 2: a DFS content tools and models, And if you have

775
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 2: a moment, be sure to leave us a five star

776
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 2: review on Spotify, which just got the ability to leave reviews.

777
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: It would really help us out. Again.

778
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 2: Thank you guys for listening all season long.

779
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 1: We really appreciate it and

780
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 2: Have a hopy holiday and we'll be back next week

781
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:37,879
Speaker 2: with more fantasy bleat the Difference Money