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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go,

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Speaker 2: throwing in Joe spect I'm saying it's a catch se.

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Speaker 3: Most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

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Speaker 3: that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kaba you want to

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Speaker 3: pass and we are underway. What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm

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Speaker 4: your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL Week

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Speaker 4: ten betting preview where we will talk about our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs,

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Speaker 4: and of course build our weekly Sunday six pack of

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Speaker 4: against the spread bets with the help of my co host,

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Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky.

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Speaker 3: Stuck was good.

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Speaker 2: That's going on. Good week in the books. I went

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Speaker 2: six and two overall. Well, I was very disappointed with

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Speaker 2: two of the six pack picks that the Colts. We'll

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Speaker 2: talk about. It was disappointing that Jonathan Tower didn't play,

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Speaker 2: but I was able to grab six. Still liked it.

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Speaker 2: Their defense shut the Patriots down, but their offense was

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Speaker 2: historically bad. And then I underestimated the incompetence of the

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Speaker 2: fighting Cliffs, which don't you We'll talk about that later,

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Speaker 2: but everything else got home. I'm glad that we decided

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Speaker 2: to go. I went Chargers Chiefs money line. It was

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Speaker 2: pretty fortunate. But and then hopefully people were able to

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Speaker 2: grab two and a half with the Bucks, who actually

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Speaker 2: graded out as a nineteen point winner, so it shouldn't

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Speaker 2: even have been that close. But it just brings up

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Speaker 2: an interesting point. If you look last week, lots of

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Speaker 2: games you know, with lower scoring, margins are tighter, and

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Speaker 2: as the season progresses, lines do get sharper and more efficient,

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Speaker 2: and which makes shopping around just that much import to that.

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Speaker 2: We talked about, you know, things like the quick slip

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Speaker 2: on fandel and just having multiple outs. But like, look

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Speaker 2: at last week, it's like Chargers win by three right

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Speaker 2: on the button. You got a little better number here

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Speaker 2: or there. Same with the Bucks, right Bucks, we're two

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Speaker 2: and a half during the week lands three. That'll continue

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Speaker 2: to increase in frequency, so it just makes getting the

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Speaker 2: best number even more critical as the season progresses. But uh, yeah,

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Speaker 2: good week in the books, But who cares. We're on

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Speaker 2: to week ten.

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Speaker 3: We can.

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Speaker 4: But before we move on, here we've had more Fando

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Speaker 4: users asking us how to use quick slip on the

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Speaker 4: Action app, So a step once again, can you please

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Speaker 4: explain it to everybody?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, spotsor fandels really great new technology that only Action has.

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Speaker 2: So you only find it on the Action Network gap

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Speaker 2: nowhere else. And when you go on, say you're on

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Speaker 2: the Action app and you pull up this Packers game

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Speaker 2: and you say, okay, let me see where the best

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Speaker 2: line is, and you see it's on fandle and you

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Speaker 2: have a Fandel account that's linked to the Action app.

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Speaker 2: You would just click the Fandle option once you log

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Speaker 2: in once and connect your account would take you right

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Speaker 2: to your Fandel account already preloaded, and then you would

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Speaker 2: just put in how much you want to bet. And

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Speaker 2: instead of like, oh, you see it on the Action app,

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Speaker 2: then you got to go to the Fandle app, You

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Speaker 2: got to log in, and you go to NFL. Then

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Speaker 2: you got to find the game. The other great thing

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Speaker 2: about it is just you see someone put a bed

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Speaker 2: in and you've talked about this a lot with props

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Speaker 2: and like props will move, like especially a prime time prop.

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Speaker 2: Put it in. You have it up here on the app.

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Speaker 2: You can literally just go we are on the Action app,

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Speaker 2: or you can click the notification on the Action app.

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Speaker 2: Click it takes you right to the FANDLE site of

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Speaker 2: it pre loaded Boom, put your amount and embed. It

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Speaker 2: could save you two yards, could save you a point.

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Speaker 2: That that adds up. And it's just like if you're

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Speaker 2: in a time crunch, if you're kind of busy and

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Speaker 2: want to do it quick. It's just really convenient, user friendly.

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Speaker 2: So it's just another reason to have another out, and

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Speaker 2: this technology is great for all users that have it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I can't I can't stress enough how important it is.

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Speaker 4: You know, sometimes you might be listening too a pod,

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Speaker 4: you might see somebody bet something, you might hear something,

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Speaker 4: and it's like lines move so quick, like I've lost

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Speaker 4: multiple yards, I've lost half points, sometimes full points. You know,

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Speaker 4: something like NBA where people were just straight up betting

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Speaker 4: based on a weight, scratch and things like that.

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Speaker 3: So it can be really important.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, check out quick Slip for FANDUE in the

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Speaker 4: Action Network app. All right, it's time to jump into

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Speaker 4: Thursday night football, So let's get the show started with

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Speaker 4: the Falcons at the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 4: I took a risk and it actually didn't work out.

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Speaker 4: So I saw this line at plus two heading into

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Speaker 4: last week. I thought the Panthers would surprise people against

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Speaker 4: the Bengals. I thought the Falcons might have trouble against

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Speaker 4: the Chargers, so grabbed it at two. Of course, the

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Speaker 4: Panthers get blown out and it goes to three. So

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Speaker 4: did not get the best of the number there. But

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Speaker 4: I actually liked the Panthers at home here Revenge Spot.

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Speaker 3: The plus three it told its forty two and a half.

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Speaker 4: But you know, they played the Falcons pretty tough in

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Speaker 4: that first meeting, probably should have won. You know, even

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Speaker 4: before all that, all the shenanigans happened, with the Hail

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Speaker 4: Mary and everything, I thought the Panthers played the better game,

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Speaker 4: and now you got them at home Revenge Spot. A. J.

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Speaker 4: Terrell is still not playing for the Falcons, so id

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Speaker 4: of the same matchup. But PJ is going to get

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Speaker 4: another shot, and against this pressureless Falcon d I still

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Speaker 4: think he'll be all right. But I'm curious to hear

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Speaker 4: your thoughts on this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, here, the Panthers expert this this game

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Speaker 2: is up, but it's interesting, I know interesting in this game.

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Speaker 2: Panthers are good, good teaser pieces. They're pretty much painted

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Speaker 2: at two and a half across the board, were like

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Speaker 2: a really juice three. It's interesting in that these two

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Speaker 2: teams just played that. The line was what Atlanta minus

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Speaker 2: four and the total is forty one forty one and

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Speaker 2: a half and that was indoors in Atlanta. Now you

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Speaker 2: have a total which is ticked up because I mean

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Speaker 2: that game did shatter. There were seve I think seventy

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Speaker 2: one points scored, but there's wind. It's supposed to be

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Speaker 2: pouring all night. We know how great Thursday night unders

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Speaker 2: have been, and now you're getting a total that's a

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Speaker 2: couple points higher, which I found interesting. Both defenses obviously

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Speaker 2: haven't been great of late. The weather is definitely something

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Speaker 2: to keep an eye on. I would think favors the

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Speaker 2: Falcons if it's just like pouring rain the entire time.

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Speaker 2: They're basically like a service academy, so that's one thing

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Speaker 2: that could work in their favor. Panthers are an interesting

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Speaker 2: teaser piece, but other than that, I make this line

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Speaker 2: two and a half, so I no interest in this game.

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Speaker 2: This game is awful. This is your classic brutal November

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Speaker 2: Thursday night matchup. I make it right on. But total

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Speaker 2: is interesting. Weather's worth keeping an eye on. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: if I had to bet this game at all, I

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Speaker 2: would use the Panthers in a teaser. We'll talk about

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Speaker 2: some other teaser pieces that you could potentially pair them

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Speaker 2: with later on the show.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there are, you know, to your point, a lot

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Speaker 4: of trend support in the under in this one.

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Speaker 2: You have outdoor second divisional game, right, So yeah, that.

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Speaker 4: One, there's a there's outdoor, just straight up outdoor. Unders

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Speaker 4: in divisional games since the start of last year are

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Speaker 4: fifty six and thirty three sixty three percent twenty and

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Speaker 4: six this season, seventy seven percent uh and under when

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Speaker 4: the total opens that at forty and a half and

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Speaker 4: moves up fifteen six and one, seventy one percent when

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Speaker 4: the win to your point eight miles per hour or more,

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Speaker 4: and the humidities also seventy seven percent or more one

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Speaker 4: one nineteen and two to the under sixty one percent

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Speaker 4: going all the way back to two thousand and three,

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Speaker 4: including six and two this season.

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Speaker 3: So a lot of things kind of pointing toward the.

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Speaker 4: Under, and then for the Panthers, this is you know,

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Speaker 4: the mine moved away from them.

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Speaker 3: As as I mentioned, when.

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Speaker 4: A line moves away from a team by two or

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Speaker 4: more points in primetime, that that team is seventy nine

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Speaker 4: forty nine and two against the spread sixty two percent,

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Speaker 4: including four and one this season and since over the

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Speaker 4: last about forty five years or so, divisional home dogs

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Speaker 4: by under six are sixty.

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Speaker 3: One and forty sixty percent against the spread.

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Speaker 4: So, uh, there are a lot of trends supporting the

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Speaker 4: foul up the Panthers and the the under in this one.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, if you like the t's uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: I don't mind that at all. But I think the

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Speaker 4: Panthers are gonna win this game, so I took them

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Speaker 4: at plus two. All right, let's let's jump into the

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Speaker 4: week ten Sunday six.

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Speaker 2: Pack Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: I think I got one of the widest spreads we've

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Speaker 4: ever had. But it's thirty five to twenty five right now,

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Speaker 4: so see if you can catch up. But I am

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Speaker 4: up first this week, so with my first pick and

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Speaker 4: the first overall pick of the week ten Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: I am going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus one and

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Speaker 4: a half at home against the New Orleans Saints, and

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Speaker 4: there's a few things I like in this matchup. The

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Speaker 4: first thing is I think you're getting some value due

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Speaker 4: to the warped perception of both teams. So first, with

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh strength to schedule. New Orleans has played an average schedule,

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Speaker 4: but Pittsburgh's played the league's toughest schedule. Every single team

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Speaker 4: that the Steelers have faced this year ranks in the

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Speaker 4: top thirteen in overall DVOA, which is pretty nuts. So

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Speaker 4: you know, they've managed to face eight of the top

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Speaker 4: thirteen teams in the league in their eight games this

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Speaker 4: year Cincinnati seven, thirteen, Cleveland eleven, Jets eight, Buffalo two,

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Speaker 4: Tampa ten, Miami twelfth, and the Eagles of number one.

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Speaker 4: And then on the other side, I think New Orleans

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Speaker 4: is a little bit inflated due to playing four of

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Speaker 4: their last five games at home in the Dome. And

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Speaker 4: you know, they also had a London game, so they

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Speaker 4: haven't had a true road They only had one true

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Speaker 4: road game in their last six, but four of the

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Speaker 4: last five have been at home, and now you know

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Speaker 4: they're going on the road, they're favored here. You know,

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Speaker 4: this is a coin flip game to me. You look

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Speaker 4: at New Orleans, it's been ugly when they're outside.

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Speaker 3: Of the dome.

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Speaker 4: At home, I mean they're still two and three against

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Speaker 4: the spread, which is not great, but they're beating the

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Speaker 4: spread by an average of one point two points at home.

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Speaker 4: When they go on the roads, they're zero and three

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Speaker 4: against the spread, and they're falling short of the spread

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Speaker 4: by an average of six point seven points per game.

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Speaker 4: And in terms of the actual ex's and o's here,

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Speaker 4: I like Pittsburgh's run defense in this spot.

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Speaker 3: Pitts.

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Speaker 4: You know, if we know New Orleans, that's what they

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Speaker 4: like to do. They like to run on early downs.

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Speaker 4: They like to run, you know, to set up the

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Speaker 4: pass run early run. Often if they can run all day,

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Speaker 4: they will. Pittsburgh number ten and DVOA against the run

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Speaker 4: on first down number five one second down. They are

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Speaker 4: number nine in both early down rush EPA and early

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Speaker 4: down rush success rate. So like the matchup for Pittsburgh's

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Speaker 4: run defense, they also are pretty good against backs out

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Speaker 4: of the backfield, which is key in you're facing Camara

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Speaker 4: four point seventy five yards per target allowed to running backs,

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Speaker 4: that's eighth best. And you know, if Pittsburgh can stop

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Speaker 4: the run, I really think New Orleans is going to

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Speaker 4: struggle here because I think they kind of got exposed

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Speaker 4: last week when you know they couldn't get that run

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Speaker 4: game going against the Baltimore defense that came in obviously

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Speaker 4: on paper, you know it wasn't good against the run,

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Speaker 4: but held in New Orleans to just fifteen.

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Speaker 3: For forty eight.

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Speaker 4: So Pittsburgh can do something similar because they've been good

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Speaker 4: on early downs against the run all year long. And

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Speaker 4: you look at Pittsburgh and where they've really struggled on defense,

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Speaker 4: and it's been these mobile quarterbacks Josh Allen. They gave

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Speaker 4: up thirty eight points, four hundred and thirty two net

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Speaker 4: passing yards Jalen Hurts thirty five points, two hundred and

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Speaker 4: ninety net passing yards, everyone else twenty point seven points

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Speaker 4: per game and just under two hundred and fifty net

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Speaker 4: passing yards per game, including holding the Bucks eighteen points

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Speaker 4: and two hundred and twenty nine yards in Week six

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Speaker 4: and Miami to sixteen points in two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 4: one net pass yards in Week seven. So I like,

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Speaker 4: I think this Pittsburgh defense can get it done. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: you know, we're gonna have to get something here from

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Speaker 4: Kenny Pickett, but they're coming off to buy, so this

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Speaker 4: is pretty much the best time to kind of invest in.

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Speaker 4: You know, a quarterback like this who has been struggling

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Speaker 4: but is a young quarterback, does have some upside, should

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Speaker 4: have a pretty clean pocket In New Orleans. For whatever reason,

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Speaker 4: they've just been struggling to get pressure this year. Their

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Speaker 4: bottom five and pressure rate, which always surprises me. I

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Speaker 4: keep thinking they're going to kind of shoot up their

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Speaker 4: rankings and they just don't. So now we're in week

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Speaker 4: ten and they're still twenty eighth in pressure rate. And

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Speaker 4: if also, New Orleans has struggled against mobile quarterbacks as well.

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Speaker 4: We saw Lamar last week, but overall the season they

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Speaker 4: are bottom ten and rushing yards per game to quarterbacks,

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Speaker 4: yards per carry to quarterbacks. So Pittsburgh's defense will we'll

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Speaker 4: kind of carry them. I think it's a better matchup

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Speaker 4: than people think. And of course I think Tom was

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Speaker 4: going to have him ready to play. You know, forty eight,

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Speaker 4: twenty six and three against the spread, sixty five percent

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Speaker 4: as an underdog in his career twenty five nine and

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Speaker 4: one against the spread seventy four percent as an underdog

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Speaker 4: versus an opponent with a better record, and when Tomlin

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Speaker 4: is a home dog fifteen to three and three against

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Speaker 4: the spread eighty three percent, and he covers by an

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Speaker 4: average of six and a half points per game. So

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Speaker 4: give me the Pittsburgh Steelers plus one and a half

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Speaker 4: at home against New Orleans. People killed me for catchphrases,

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Speaker 4: but I'm trying to capture a thought sucsakely without damn

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Speaker 4: talking too much, because I just hate talking.

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Speaker 2: I'd rather do I would look that way. I'll have

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Speaker 2: something on this game later in the show. You should

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Speaker 2: get Watt back as well. I think he's gonna play. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: what I mean the defense. If you look over the

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Speaker 2: past years when he's on and off the field, it's

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Speaker 2: about a yard per play difference. It's just massive. And

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Speaker 2: I do agree that's the key with Pickett coming off

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Speaker 2: foot by for a rookie quarterback. You know, he gets

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Speaker 2: a really good scripted portion here, and yeah, he's gonna

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Speaker 2: have a clean pocket. The Saints can't get pressure. The

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Speaker 2: Saints have also been beat up, and they got more

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Speaker 2: beat up against Baltimore. You know, the offensive line injuries.

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Speaker 2: McCoy laugh. They have Pete who's banged up, Davenpoord on

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Speaker 2: the defensive side, Latimore still missing. The receivers are all

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Speaker 2: banged up. So I think it's a good spot and

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Speaker 2: a good raw ross spot for the Steelers. But I

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Speaker 2: will have more on this game later.

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Speaker 3: I hit that horn babe Let's dance.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick in the second overall of the

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Speaker 2: week ten Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Green

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Speaker 2: Bay Packers plus five, my favorite team in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I am eight to ozer depending on their games this year.

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Speaker 2: This line, to me is way too high. By the way,

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Speaker 2: it's the first time Aaron Riders will ever be more

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Speaker 2: than a field goal underdog at home. All right, I

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Speaker 2: just can't get to this line. This line is crazy.

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Speaker 2: Cowboys are coming off by a stor If you look

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Speaker 2: back past ten years, by is worth about a half point,

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Speaker 2: can be a little more, can be a little less,

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Speaker 2: depending on the situation, but generally speaking, on average it's

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Speaker 2: about worth about a half point. But if you look

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Speaker 2: back a couple weeks ago, green Bay went to Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: another good home field advantage like Lambeau, Bills are coming

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Speaker 2: off of buy Bills were right around ten ten and

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Speaker 2: a half point favorites. This line Packer's covered, by the way.

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Speaker 2: For me, this line implies that the Cowboys and the

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Speaker 2: Bills at full strength are on equal playing fields, which

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Speaker 2: is not the case. The Packers have been And if

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Speaker 2: you look at our checkout our action Neweric Luck rankings.

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Speaker 2: Our analytics team does a great job. Sean Kerner and

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Speaker 2: company do a great job with those. This is I

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Speaker 2: assume the number one pick this week. Packers have just

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Speaker 2: been extremely unlucky. The perception on Green Bay is outrageous.

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Speaker 2: Last week, for example, against Detroit, I agree to them

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Speaker 2: as a thirteen point winner, and they lost the game

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Speaker 2: out right. If I think their first three drives were

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Speaker 2: inside the twenty, they got zero points. And if you

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Speaker 2: look so, ask somebody what they think of the Vikings

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Speaker 2: and the Packers, and people think the Packers are decent.

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Speaker 2: And people think the Vikings are decent, the Packers are awful. Well,

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Speaker 2: if you look, let's just take Football Outsiders DBI. For example,

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Speaker 2: Packers are fifteenth on offense, the Vikings are sixteen. How

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Speaker 2: about defense, the Packers are eighteen, the Vikings are nineteen.

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Speaker 2: If you look at the Packers' offense or eleventh is

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Speaker 2: success rate second and rush success right, They've just been

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Speaker 2: extremely extraordinarily unlucky in the red zone with turnovers, particularly

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Speaker 2: timing of turnovers, and on fourth downs they are three

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Speaker 2: to fifteen on fourth downs negative thirty epa. They've lost

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Speaker 2: thirty points on fourth down attempts. Just a highly variant,

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Speaker 2: just a high variance down where you would expect some regression,

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Speaker 2: especially for a team that's second in the NFL in

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Speaker 2: rush success rate. Their defense, you know, is vulnerable against

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Speaker 2: the run, which is a bit of a concern here,

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Speaker 2: But overall it's been okay. There are some injuries which

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Speaker 2: are definitely worth noting here. But the Packers are an

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Speaker 2: average team. That's what they are. They have a poor

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Speaker 2: record of three and six because they've been unlucky, but

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Speaker 2: they're an average team no matter what you look at.

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Speaker 2: You can look at, you know, net yards per drive

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Speaker 2: their twelfth in the NFL. How about net yards per

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Speaker 2: play fourteenth. By the way, Vikings are twenty fourth in

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Speaker 2: net yards per play. They've scored the same number of

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Speaker 2: offensive touchdowns as their opponents. They're averaging fifty more yards

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Speaker 2: per game than their opponents. They have major flaws, right,

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Speaker 2: They don't have explosiveness with their receivers, their run defense

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Speaker 2: is bad, their special teams are poor. But this, this

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Speaker 2: is just a typical classic Bilo spot on the Packers

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Speaker 2: at home and this is their season. They lose this game,

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Speaker 2: their season is over against a Cowboys team that I

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Speaker 2: think is a bit inflated in the market after you know,

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Speaker 2: beating up on some bad teams last month, and in general,

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Speaker 2: over the course of the season, they have dominated games

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Speaker 2: where they can dominate it opposing offensive lines. The way

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Speaker 2: that the Packers offense works. It's not they're gonna gona

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Speaker 2: co out. They're gonna lean on the run game and

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Speaker 2: it's just gonna be short, quick passes. And Green Bay's

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Speaker 2: offensive line I think is in the best shape that

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Speaker 2: it's been all year. They finally had Jenkins playing left guard,

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Speaker 2: you know, back to our split snaps at left tackle

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Speaker 2: with Tom. The rookie has been really good. I like

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Speaker 2: him at that left tackle spot, so they finally have

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Speaker 2: some continuity in the lineup that they want. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm taking five year all day. I think

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Speaker 2: this line should be three classic bi Loow spot on

365
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Speaker 2: the Packers who have been very unlucky. There's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a game or two a stretch where people are like, oh,

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Speaker 2: the Packers are back, when really it's just all the

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Speaker 2: regression in the red zone on fourth downs, in turnovers.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, gimme green Bay here. I'll go to war

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Speaker 2: here with Rogers as a dog, and dogs in this

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Speaker 2: range all season have just been straight cash in the

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Speaker 2: scoring environment. So give me the Packers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I know they have because I've been betting against the

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Speaker 4: Packers dogs in this range. Yeah, like I was, I

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Speaker 4: was really interested in what your breakdown was gonna because

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Speaker 4: I you know.

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Speaker 3: I'm not really there.

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Speaker 4: I just I worry about this getting away from the

380
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 4: Packers a little bit, just because I think Dallas, you know,

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Speaker 4: they're gonna be able to run.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be able to throw.

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Speaker 4: You know, Rashaan Gary is a big loss on the

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Speaker 4: edge for green Bay. But also this is just one

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Speaker 4: of those spots where I don't like to bet the

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Speaker 4: Packers because Dallas is one of those teams that can

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Speaker 4: rush for and get pressure, and that's always kind of been,

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Speaker 4: you know, historically, the way you beat Rogers before.

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Speaker 3: He started sucking with this offense.

390
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Speaker 4: But I get it they've been unlucky, so I can't

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Speaker 4: really hate on to play too much. But just you know,

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Speaker 4: from a from a kind of a gut field perspective,

393
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Speaker 4: just a little bit worried that this could get away

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Speaker 4: from him, like if he you know, like you do

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Speaker 4: you think the Packers in this spot, like they end

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Speaker 4: up winning or losing by.

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Speaker 3: Like three, or do you think they need like a backdoor?

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Speaker 2: I think they might win this game, but you know,

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Speaker 2: if a backdoor is needed and you're down ten late,

400
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Speaker 2: just like in the Bills game, it'll be nice to

401
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Speaker 2: have Rogers. And yeah, I just don't think the pressure

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Speaker 2: means as much here because it's just it's a very

403
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Speaker 2: efficient offense. It's just lacking explosively. Then they just get

404
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Speaker 2: stopped in the red zone or on fourth downs. You know,

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Speaker 2: you're saying the Cowboys are a touchdown better than an

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Speaker 2: average team in the NFL, and I do not get

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Speaker 2: there at all.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, if they had Cooper rush Dar

409
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Speaker 4: in this game, they would be Yeah. I be rooting

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Speaker 4: for you though. For my second pick and the third

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Speaker 4: overall of the week, number ten Sunday six Pack sent

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Speaker 4: it by fan duel. I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks

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Speaker 4: plus three against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And I look

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Speaker 4: forward to to your what you have to say about this,

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Speaker 4: because I know you're on the bucks at two and

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Speaker 4: a half. But I so I look at these teams

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Speaker 4: and we're in week ten now and it's a neutral field,

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Speaker 4: so I have this is pretty much a coin flip game.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that Tampa Bay is marketly better than

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Speaker 4: Seattle at all. I mean, if you look at overall

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Speaker 4: DVOA Seattle fifth, Tampa Bay tenth, offensive, DVA Seattle seventh,

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay seventeenth. Defensive, Tampa Bay is seventh, Seattle's twelfth.

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Speaker 4: Special teams Seattle is seventh, Tampa Bay is nineteen. So

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Speaker 4: Seattle has the edge overall. Seattle has the edge offensively,

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Speaker 4: and Seattle has the edge and special teams, and the

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Speaker 4: gap in defense is the closest gap of any of them.

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Speaker 4: It's just five spots. So you know, that's that's kind

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Speaker 4: of how it's been this year. And just looking at

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Speaker 4: this Tampa Bay team, just like I said last week,

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna test this this Packer team. Let them, you know,

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Speaker 4: outscore the line well it's kind of the same thing

432
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 4: with this Tampa Bay team. It's okay, let's see if

433
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 4: you can get some separation here against the Seattle Seahawks,

434
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,679
Speaker 4: who you know, they're not world beaters, but they're a

435
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 4: pretty solid football team. They drafted well, so I think

436
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 4: a lot of people are still underestimating them because a

437
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 4: lot of their players that are making a difference between

438
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 4: what they're actually doing and their preseason prior are guys

439
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 4: who are like young and unproven, and a lot of

440
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 4: people just don't know them. But when I look at

441
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 4: this Tampa Bay offense, I'm gonna bet against them all day.

442
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 4: Because Week nine last week against the Rams, they did

443
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:41,360
Speaker 4: it turn the ball over. They ran seventy nine plays

444
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 4: seventy nine and they gained three hundred and twenty three yards.

445
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 4: They needed seventy nine plays without a turnover. Again, three

446
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 4: hundred twenty three yards. That's four point one yards per play.

447
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 4: And that Ram defense is statistically speaking, very similar to

448
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 4: the Seahawks. The Rams are thirteenth to tvo Hey, the

449
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 4: Seahawks are twelve.

450
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:00,959
Speaker 3: And they're even better than that.

451
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 4: Over the last month or so of the season, and

452
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 4: just going back these last four games, for Tampa Bay,

453
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 4: like ever since that game against Kansas City, which wasn't

454
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 4: a good game for Tampa Bay, but at least they

455
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 4: put some points on the board. You know, it's just

456
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 4: been downhill. I mean, they had that Falcons game where

457
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 4: they stopped scoring. So these last four games, they're they're

458
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 4: doing absolutely nothing on offense. And you know, they've played

459
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 4: sixteen quarters over the last four games, obviously, and they've

460
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 4: been leading by more than three points for less than

461
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 4: two of those quarters. About eleven percent of the time

462
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 4: they've had a lead of more than four points.

463
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 3: And they're playing the Steelers, the Panthers.

464
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 4: I mean, it's not all you know, the Rams, who aren't,

465
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 4: as you talked about last week, aren't very good. You know,

466
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 4: the Ravens are the only team in there that are

467
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 4: you know, I think it's a formidable opponent. And you

468
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 4: look at you know, the Bucks have been struggling on offense.

469
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 4: The defensive rankings of these last four teams Pittsburgh twentieth,

470
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 4: Carolina twenty eighth, Baltimore fifteen, Rams thirteen, that's an average

471
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 4: of nineteenth. Seattle's better than all of them. They're the

472
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 4: second best they faced all year. You know, since Week

473
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 4: four their ninth and EPA per play eighth if you've

474
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 4: removed turnovers, and Tampa Bay outside of Raymond James Stadium

475
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 4: this year just three hundred and eight yards per game

476
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 4: total of offense fifteen points per game of offense. You

477
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 4: look at the red zone Tampa Bay offense twenty ninth

478
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 4: and DVOA Seattle d fifteenth. Seattle actually struggles in the

479
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 4: red zone themselves on the offense twenty fourth, but Tampa

480
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 4: Bay's defense is thirtieth. So yeah, I just don't see

481
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 4: how there's like this big of a difference between these

482
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 4: two teams at this point. Tampa Bay loses Shaq Barrett

483
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 4: twenty two pressures, their best edge rusher. You know, I

484
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 4: just think Seattle here is the more consistent offensive team

485
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 4: and Tampa Bay everything's been a struggle for them. I mean,

486
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 4: they needed they needed the Rams to essentially go in

487
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 4: a you know, play the ultra conservative and Cooper Cup

488
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 4: to slide instead. We could have got the first down

489
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 4: just to have a second.

490
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 3: Chance to win that game. It did in Bowl.

491
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 4: Well, I don't think for me for them to cover

492
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,959
Speaker 4: this number, and especially when you're getting into three here,

493
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 4: because now they got to win by four, They got

494
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 4: to win by a touchdown. I just don't see Tampa

495
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 4: Bay doing it. They haven't been doing it in any

496
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 4: of these games since early in the season. And you know,

497
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 4: Week ten, dogs against favorites on a one to two

498
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 4: game winning streak fifty one to thirty two against the spread,

499
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 4: sixty two percent in six. Give me the Seahawks plus

500
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 4: three on a neutral field in Germany.

501
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: I'm so scared. Ooh the Germans. Yeah, I love the

502
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 2: Bucks here for proason, it's like, yeah, if you look

503
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 2: at DDA, the Seahawks are going to be better than

504
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 2: the Bucks and a lot of categories, by the way,

505
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 2: the Packers better than the than the Vikings in those

506
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 2: categories are very troubling. No, but no, I'm saying it's

507
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 2: very troubling because the Vikings have played a number of backups.

508
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: DVA doesn't account for injuries, and the Seahawks have been very,

509
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 2: very fortunate on that front on their own and then

510
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 2: of teams that they faced, whereas the Bucks haven't been

511
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 2: healthy all year. This is the healthiest they'll be. I'm

512
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 2: assuming Antoine Winfield is coming back this week. He's their

513
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 2: highest graded defensive player and He's so important to everything

514
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 2: that they want to do. Their secondary has been banged up.

515
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 2: Their receivers have been banged up. And I look at

516
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 2: their red zone numbers as a positive moving forward, there

517
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 2: should be some regression there. And yeah, the Rams game,

518
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 2: I gave him a bump and downgraded the Rams. I

519
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 2: mean I had them. That is a massive win. They

520
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 2: I mean they all gain them, like three thirty to

521
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: two hundred. They need any players.

522
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: Though, to do get that those grant.

523
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 4: I'm not knocking to defense, don't get me wrong, but

524
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 4: like we know, the Rams offense can't block, so it's like, yeah.

525
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 2: But I'm just saying you said that they got a

526
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 2: second chance. But they scored a touchdown that bounced off

527
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 2: Scottie Miller's facetsk wide open like that. Things like that

528
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: have been happening in the red zone. It looks like

529
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 2: Cameron Brad'll be back. That should help in the red zone.

530
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 2: But their their offense has just not had any continuity.

531
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 2: Their receivers have been in and out and banged up

532
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 2: all year, and most importantly it's the secondary. Todd Bowles

533
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 2: needs a healthy secondary to do what he wants to do,

534
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 2: and that's blitz and bring pressure. If you can do

535
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 2: that and stop the run, which a healthy Bucks defense

536
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 2: can do, Gino Smith turns into a pumpkin. I mean

537
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 2: last week he was horrendous because the Cardinals blitz a lot.

538
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 2: They just and they actually stopped the run. As I thought,

539
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 2: Gino Smith last week two point two air yards per attempt.

540
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 2: He had two touchdown throws after two dropped picks, and

541
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: threw a pick six the week before against the Giants.

542
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 2: He was a twenty third rated quarterback another team that blitzes.

543
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 2: But guess what. Both those teams have awful secondaries, the

544
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 2: Giants and the Cardinals. The Bucks don't. The Bucks have

545
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 2: one of the best now that they're fully healthy. Gino

546
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 2: Smith against the blitz has just been He's been bad.

547
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 2: He's a twenty third graded quarterback when blitz. When not blitz,

548
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: he's second. And Tampa could defend the run well and blitz.

549
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 2: It's also much trucker travel here for Seattle. You know,

550
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 2: they were just on the road out west. Now you're

551
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 2: going overseas and they're a much younger team, much more inexperience.

552
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 2: And I think these spots favor the favorite too, or

553
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 2: I have a very good straight up record or twenty

554
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 2: three and fourteen against the spread. Tom Brady fourth game overseas,

555
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: he's what three and oh straight up and against the spread,

556
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: covering by twenty points per game in international games. And

557
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: it's just a very experienced Bucks team that I think

558
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 2: will treat this more like a business trip. Syuks getting

559
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 2: a lot of love, and I think that there's a

560
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 2: reason why this line is moving up despite the entire world.

561
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: It's gonna bet same.

562
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 4: You know, I'm not saying Gino Smith is gonna win

563
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 4: MVP or you know whatever. I'm just saying any competent team,

564
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 4: which I think the Seahawks are, the Bucks aren't gonna

565
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 4: be able to separate from them. That's my thing. It's

566
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 4: like the Bucks offense, everything's a struggle. We watch Brady

567
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 4: now as if you watch them throw, and there's there's

568
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 4: no margin for error on these throws anymore. It's everything

569
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 4: is like it's either squeezed in or it's it's a

570
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 4: it's you know, in a tough spot and the receiver

571
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 4: drops it.

572
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 3: It's there's just nothing's coming easy for this.

573
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 4: So if I if I'm getting three points on a

574
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 4: neutral field for a team that has it top twenty

575
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 4: one points despite playing the Falcons Steelers Panthers, you know,

576
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 4: the only team that they go they score twenty two

577
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: against the Ravens on you know, a last second touchdown.

578
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: That's a good value.

579
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: We shall find out. I think it's a great match

580
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: up from spot for Tampa.

581
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 3: But uh, where are you going? Four for your second?

582
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the fourth overall the Week

583
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: ten Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Cleveland Browns

584
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: plus three and a half at the Miami Dolphins. If

585
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 2: you look at these teams records, and I dug in

586
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 2: a lot into this game, if you look at these

587
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 2: teams records, right, the Browns are three and five and

588
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 2: the Dolphins are six and three. Getting all kinds of love,

589
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 2: the Browns have been better overall this year. The Browns

590
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 2: are the Browns offense is good. It's top five EPA.

591
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 2: They're one of two teams that it's had a positive

592
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 2: ep on offense in all but one game this year.

593
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 2: You know, if you look at it's basically just come

594
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: down to who's been better in the really close games.

595
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 2: Dolphins are five to zero games decided by six points

596
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: or less. Right, they beat Baltimore by four in the

597
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 2: luckiest win of the season. They had one percent post

598
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 2: game win probability. They beat Buffalo by two, got out

599
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 2: gained by about three hundred yards. They beat pitt at

600
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: home by six. You were just talking about he scored

601
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 2: sixteen at home. They beat Detroit at by four, trailing

602
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 2: the entire game, get a fourth down stop late, and

603
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 2: they beat Chicago by three.

604
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 3: I mean, and they missed the call at the end

605
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 3: of the game that could have ye.

606
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 2: The problem with the Dolphins are now. Yes, their offense

607
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: is good and they have great receivers. A couple problems

608
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 2: with them. They're the worst special teams in the NFL.

609
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 2: Every phase is bad right now, and their defense is horrific.

610
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 2: They have too many injuries in the secondary. They can't

611
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: stop anybody think justin Field set the quarterback rushing record

612
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 2: last week, broke Michael Vick's record. Their defense is bad.

613
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: And meanwhile, the Browns who are one in four in

614
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: games decided by six or last year, one team that's

615
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: five and zero, the other team that's one in four.

616
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: They and by the way, the Browns have five if

617
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: you look at estimated wins, five point one estimated wins.

618
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 2: The Dolphins are five point zero and the Browns have

619
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 2: three fewer wins. But the Browns loss the year. They

620
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 2: lost by one to the Jets, game they should have

621
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: won by two touchdowns, melted down late. They lost by

622
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 2: three to Atlanta again, another game that I had them

623
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 2: great as a winner, lost by two to the Chargers.

624
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 2: Chance to win that game, lost by three at the

625
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 2: Ravens should have won that game. I'm a Ravens stand.

626
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 2: They held to Baltimore to about two hundred yards of offense. Look,

627
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 2: they're off of a bye here with improving health, should

628
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 2: get Denzel Ward back. And the biggest thing for me

629
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: is the offense been great all year and they'll be

630
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 2: able to move the ball here, control the clock, keep

631
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 2: that Miami offense off the field. Their defense has improved

632
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 2: significantly over their past two games against the Bengals and

633
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: the Ravens. Over that two week stretch, they were seventh

634
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 2: at EPA per play, fifth and EPA per drop back.

635
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett is obviously dominating games right now, but their

636
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,479
Speaker 2: back end, they had some schematic changes coming in here,

637
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 2: and a lot of people, including myself, thought this was

638
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: going to be a top ten defense. They were lost

639
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 2: just communication wise, run defense, no one knew where to go.

640
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 2: They have addressed a lot of those issues. If you

641
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 2: watch their defense over the past two games. Now you

642
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: know you're getting healthier, and you have a bye week.

643
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 2: I expect that defense to continue trending up, whereas the

644
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 2: Dolphins need to get healthier in the secondary before you

645
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 2: see any uptick on that side of the ball. But

646
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 2: guys are finally in the right place for Cleveland on defense,

647
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 2: which is massive. Obviously, Garrett being in there and healthy

648
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 2: is can change games on his own. But yeah, I

649
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 2: think that these are The perception on these two teams

650
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:50,479
Speaker 2: is way off. The Browns that should have you know,

651
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 2: five maybe six wins, and the Dolphins probably should have

652
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: four or five wins this year. And look all the

653
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 2: Dolphins are doing because they can't get separated because everyone

654
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 2: can score on them. I'll gladly take the Browns here

655
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: in what I think is a pretty good matchup, catching

656
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 2: over a field goal, coming off with a buy in

657
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 2: what is basically their season. They need to win this game.

658
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:18,719
Speaker 4: I thought about this one, you know, this kind of

659
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 4: was in like the final running for me. The one

660
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 4: thing that gave me pause was the one place I

661
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 4: do actually think Miami defensively matches up well. Is they're

662
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 4: pretty good at limiting opposing running games like running backs

663
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 4: in in base defense, and that's obviously a big part

664
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 4: of the Browns, you know, offensive attack. So you know

665
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 4: there's seventh in run defense DVOA, but there their second

666
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 4: in running back yards allowed per carry they are fourth,

667
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 4: and adjusted line yards, they're sixth in power rank, they're

668
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 4: top five and stuff rates. So that is the one

669
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 4: thing it's like, hm, you know, Cleveland, they should be

670
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 4: able to run on anybody.

671
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 3: But you know that that was kind of the one

672
00:33:59,000 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 3: thing giving me pause.

673
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's some value Completeland near over a

674
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 2: field goal. Where are you going next?

675
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 4: For my third and final pick in the fifth overall

676
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 4: of the week ten Sunday six pack presenter by FanDuel,

677
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings plus three and a

678
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 4: half at Buffalo, And you know, full disclosure, i played

679
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 4: this at four and a half. But you know, with

680
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 4: Josh Allen healthy, I make it about Buffalo by six.

681
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 4: So you know, this line to me still doesn't quite

682
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 4: bake it out. I don't think he's going to play,

683
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 4: you know, like it's it's you know, with the the

684
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 4: injury has. Yes, it's it's like a pain tolerance thing,

685
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 4: but it's also something that if they rested them a week,

686
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 4: I think it would be a lot better. So I

687
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 4: don't think he's going to play. So I'm just kind

688
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 4: of taking the team here in Minnesota that you know,

689
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 4: we kind of talked about it. They are not as

690
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 4: good as their record, but I think they're competent enough

691
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 4: to kind of hold it, kind of hold thing close

692
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 4: here against this Buffalo team that a little bit out

693
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 4: of I mean, even like there's some you know, something's

694
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 4: going like Buffalo's in certain areas not quite as good

695
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 4: as you would think, like for example, you know, we

696
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 4: think of Buffalo as a team, Okay, they got von Miller,

697
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 4: they can get pressure. Now they're just twentieth in pressure rate,

698
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 4: uh this season, and you know that's that's kind of

699
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 4: surprising to me. You know, Poyer didn't practice Wednesday. Edmunds were,

700
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 4: so Poyer I think might miss again. So I think

701
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 4: there's Buffalo team just a little banged up. I don't

702
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 4: think if you know, if it comes down to holding

703
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 4: guys out for this game, you know, out of conference

704
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 4: games not a Division game. I think they're gonna play

705
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 4: its conservative and on the other side, you know, Minnesota,

706
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 4: you know they are they don't they They're drow up

707
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 4: to fifteenth in pressure rate and they're not blitzing. They're

708
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 4: twenty seventh, so they're plus seven point one percent uh

709
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 4: pressure minus blitzer rate is actually third best in the week.

710
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 4: So that's kind of a metric I used to see,

711
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 4: you know, how good a team's four man can be,

712
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 4: and I think, you know, with that kind of defense,

713
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 4: you know it's they're gonna kind of sit back, they

714
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 4: can get some pressure, and on the other side, you

715
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 4: got competent skill guys all over.

716
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 3: Hockinson actually made a.

717
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 4: Pretty big, much bigger impact than I thought he was

718
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 4: gonna make in the first game, which could be big

719
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 4: with you know, with Buffalo banged up at safety because

720
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 4: usually they just shut down a posing tight ends. But

721
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 4: I think you can run on Buffalo a little more.

722
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 4: Now we saw that with the Jets, and you know,

723
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 4: Zach Wilson can go and pull off a win against

724
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:26,760
Speaker 4: this Bills team with Josh Allen playing.

725
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 3: I'll take the what are they seven and one? Now?

726
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 4: Seven and one Minnesota Vikings, I'll take the seven and

727
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 4: one Minnesota Vikings to hold it close here as well.

728
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 4: Week ten underdogs on the road with a negative ATS differential,

729
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 4: which the Vikings have. You know, they haven't been great

730
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,439
Speaker 4: against the spread. Those teams are fifty four to thirty

731
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 4: and three, sixty four percent against the spread since two

732
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 4: thousand and five. Road dogs that are five hundred or

733
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 4: below against the spread that opened plus two and a

734
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 4: half or higher in Week ten or eleven, one, thirteen,

735
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 4: fifty nine and five against the spread sixty six percent

736
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 4: since two thousand and five.

737
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 3: So give me the Vikings at Buffalo.

738
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I'm way higher on the spread than you.

739
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: If was healthy and the Bills were full strike at

740
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 2: like nine oh wow, three, so then you could sounds

741
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 2: worth like six ish points. There's some other injuries to

742
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 2: keep you know. I look at the Bills that I

743
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 2: can get under three. The Vikings are six and on

744
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 2: one possession games. That's the most wins of all time,

745
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 2: the best record of all time through this point in

746
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 2: the season in the history of the NFL. And they've

747
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 2: been out played in almost every single game. Like I said,

748
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: they were twenty fourth in net yards per play. This

749
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 2: team just has flaws all over and they just keep

750
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 2: stealing games late in the fourth quarter. Did it again

751
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 2: last week against Washington. But I mean dancers out, which

752
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 2: is worth noting. The rookie Evans is going to get

753
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 2: his first start at corner from Minnesota, but the billsers. Yeah,

754
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 2: but we gotta wait on now. I don't think he's

755
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,800
Speaker 2: gonna play either. He's gonna push to play, but McDermott

756
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 2: said day to day usually means out this week. Based

757
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,279
Speaker 2: on his history, Milano looks like he'll be in. It's

758
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 2: an important piece that they missed last week. Trey White,

759
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 2: does he come back. We'll see Poyer. He's hurt Russo

760
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,919
Speaker 2: week the week. McDermot said he's not going to play

761
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 2: this week. So there's a lot of injuries for this

762
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 2: Bills team. Their defense is definitely not at full strength,

763
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 2: which is something to monitor. But yeah, this line might

764
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 2: go too far. Follen has ruled out. I might back

765
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 2: the Bills, but there's so much uncertainty right now. I

766
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 2: don't mind that you grabbed that number because I also

767
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 2: agree that I think Allen's gonna sit out here.

768
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean no, there's.

769
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 2: No reason to you know, I think it's just a

770
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 2: pain tolerance thing, but there's just no reason to rush

771
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 2: him back this week. With where they sit in the

772
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: playoff picture. Its sound like they need to win this game.

773
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, And I think you could get some

774
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 4: like residual value here because I think if Allan sits,

775
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 4: I think they may be more likely to be conservative

776
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 4: with some of the other guys, you know what I mean,

777
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 4: Because it's just like, all right, let's just get everybody

778
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 4: almost like a bye week, you know kind of thing.

779
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be fade in Minnesota at some point again,

780
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 4: but right now I'm getting points for a team that.

781
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 3: You know, they're essentially.

782
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 4: Have the MVP at quarterback and he's not likely to play,

783
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:15,720
Speaker 4: So I'll take that on day.

784
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I wouldn't fade Minnesota here if Allen is

785
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 2: out at over field. Field goal is just so valuable,

786
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 2: especially this year. I mean, I would look at Buffalo potentially,

787
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 2: depending on some of the other injuries, if this line

788
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 2: goes down under three, which I think it might, if

789
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 2: Allen is officially ruled out, depending on some of the

790
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 2: other injuries.

791
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 4: The question is, if the Vikings win this game, what's

792
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 4: Kirk o Chain's going to do on the play home.

793
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 3: But all right, where are you going?

794
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: All right? For my third pick and the sixth overall

795
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 2: of the week ten Sunday six pack, I'm going with

796
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 2: the Jacksonville Jaguars plus nine and a half at the

797
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs. Just gonna keep this one simple. I

798
00:39:58,200 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 2: just think there's too many points. I think this line

799
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,760
Speaker 2: should be right around a touchdowns, have a Tadley less

800
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 2: and if you're gonna fain the Chiefs, this is when

801
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,240
Speaker 2: you fade them a favorite of seven or more mames,

802
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 2: as a favorite of a touchdown plus twelve and seventeen

803
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 2: against the spread, as a favorite of three and a

804
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 2: half or more twenty seven, thirty one and one against

805
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 2: the spread, favorite of three or lesser dogies. Just beyond elite.

806
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 2: But the Jags, look, they can't close out games, but

807
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 2: they're pesky and they'll be in every game. They're one

808
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 2: in six and one possession games. It wouldn't shock me

809
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 2: if they won this game and got a couple breaks

810
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: to go their way. Because the Chiefs have also been

811
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: flirting with losing to inferior teams at home all year.

812
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 2: Here are their games at home this year. They beat

813
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 2: the Titans, who had no completions to a receiver by

814
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: three in overtime. They beat the Raiders by one. Easily

815
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 2: could have lost that game. You know, they lost to

816
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,879
Speaker 2: Buffalo and they beat the Chargers by three, easily could

817
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 2: have lost that game. I mean, those are their home

818
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 2: games this year, so they've been flirting with Luca and

819
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 2: last week is a physical game and look, Kelsey's gonna

820
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 2: eat if you look. I'm afraid of that against the Jags,

821
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 2: who can't cover tight ends. But there's just the Chiefs

822
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 2: offensive line isn't right and their defense you could score

823
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 2: on them. So I think that the Jags will do

824
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 2: enough here to stay within this number, and it's just

825
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 2: a game where the Chiefs will you know, the back

826
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 2: door might be open here, but the Chiefs aren't going

827
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 2: to show a ton. It's just like, let's get out

828
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 2: with a win. They have the Chargers on deck, which

829
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 2: basically will decide the division. They can sweep the Chargers

830
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 2: and Broncos and Raiders are out of it. So I

831
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 2: think it was a good spot to back the Jags,

832
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 2: who every single one of their games this year has

833
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 2: been sided by one possession, and the Chiefs at home

834
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: just been flirting with inferior teams all year, and they

835
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: definitely have some flaws and they're not as explosive. Now,

836
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 2: if you get the Chiefs that are just like Juggernaut Chiefs,

837
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 2: which you know once a month you'll get and then

838
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 2: the Jags are cooked. But if you don't, Jags should

839
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 2: hang around here. And I think this number is a

840
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 2: bit inflated, and especially this season catching nine and a

841
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 2: half with a competent team. The Jaguars are competent on

842
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: offense and they just can't close out games. But I

843
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 2: don't need them to do that here catching nine and

844
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 2: a half. Also, you won't see this go on in the

845
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 2: app because it's in a dead range, so you might

846
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 2: as well wait as I'm doing, to see if a

847
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 2: ten pops at any point in time, the risk of

848
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 2: going from nine and a half to nine is meaningless.

849
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, follow on the action of our gap. I'll

850
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 2: put this in a ten if it gets there. If not,

851
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 2: I'll be on this regardless. But we're taking nine and

852
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 2: a half here for the contest.

853
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is another one.

854
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 4: I'm kind of going back and forth on whether I

855
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 4: want to bet it. If I had bet it, I

856
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 4: would have probably picked it first.

857
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 3: Because I.

858
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 4: Swore you were gonna pick it first for some reason.

859
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 4: But you know there are some Yeah, like there are

860
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,280
Speaker 4: things I like about the Jags in this spot. Number One,

861
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,320
Speaker 4: there's just so many points against my homes. Number two,

862
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 4: they're actually top ten in pressure rate, which you know

863
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 4: you can't You're never gonna completely stop this offense. But

864
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 4: you know Mahome's one sixteen passer rating Queen seventy seven

865
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 4: under pressure, so you know that definitely helps.

866
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 3: But there are a lot.

867
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 2: Of problems right now. You saw Tennes Sagees was just

868
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 2: destroying them upfront.

869
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, then there's so there's a couple of things that

870
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 4: give me pause to about, you know, the game, kind

871
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 4: of like you said, getting the Juggernaut Chiefs. Here one is,

872
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:32,720
Speaker 4: I still don't know if I can trust Trevor Lawrence

873
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 4: against non Indianapolis Colts teams.

874
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 3: The Raiders played more.

875
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 4: Zone against the Jags and pretty much anyone besides the Colts,

876
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,359
Speaker 4: and I just don't know how you do that. And

877
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 4: of course, what do the Jaguars do. They're down seventy

878
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 4: nothing and they come back. Well, I'm looking at the

879
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 4: Chiefs last week and they actually played man coverage fifty

880
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 4: eight percent of the time against Malik Willis. So if

881
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 4: they did it against the Titans, I do think they'll

882
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 4: they'll still feel comfortable playing it against the Jags. So

883
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 4: that kind of words me, I might bet it's still

884
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 4: but it is a lot of points. But those were

885
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 4: kind of things I was thinking about, all right. So

886
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 4: that is going to wrap it up for the Week

887
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 4: ten Sunday six Pack. Let's see who do we got

888
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 4: the quarterbacks. We got some Jacoby Brossett, some Aaron Rodgers,

889
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 4: some Trevor Lawrence, some Kenny Pickett, Gino Smith, and Kirk Cousins.

890
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 3: So that's just a solid group. Nothing really crazy there.

891
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 4: Stuck is going with Cleveland plus three and a half

892
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 4: against Miami, the Pack plus five at home against the

893
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 4: Cowboys and the Jags plus nine and a half at

894
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:35,320
Speaker 4: Kansas City. I'm going with the Steelers plus one and

895
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,240
Speaker 4: a half at home against the Saints, the Seahawks plus

896
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 4: three in Germany against the Bucks and the Vikings plus

897
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 4: three and a half at Buffalo. That is going to

898
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 4: wrap it up for our Week ten Sunday six pack,

899
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 4: presented by FanDuel. Now, this is Tom for the coaches

900
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 4: pep talk.

901
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play.

902
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 3: I just want to throw up so the press. I

903
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:56,400
Speaker 3: don't even want to talk about it.

904
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 2: I'm sick.

905
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 3: I'm watching you guys play.

906
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 2: Just how bad can it get?

907
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 4: This week's coaches pep Talk comes to us from the

908
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 4: beloved Omar on a wire dedicated to Kevin O'Connell.

909
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 3: Show us something, man back of you against one of

910
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 3: the best teams in the league.

911
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 2: I don't even want this. Why not?

912
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 3: It ain't what you've takings who you've taken it from?

913
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 2: You feel me?

914
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 3: How do you expect the run with the Wolves come night?

915
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 3: Let me spend all days spot with the puppies.

916
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 4: Let's jump in now to our favorite over under of

917
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 4: the week.

918
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,720
Speaker 3: I start, you can lead us off for this one.

919
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:40,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go with the Chargers forty nine ers under

920
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 2: forty five and a half. I think, look this, the

921
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 2: Charges play fast with poor Downers the opposite, and this

922
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 2: is a clash of tempos here. But the Chargers run

923
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 2: defense hasn't been as bad as their stats. And again

924
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: I talked about that last week and actually held up

925
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 2: pretty well against Atlanta. Just a fairly good, you know,

926
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 2: pre preparation game before you face the forty nine Ers.

927
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 2: They give up like a forty to fifty yard run

928
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 2: every game, and then the rest they're actually better than

929
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 2: the stats indicate.

930
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 3: You know.

931
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 2: You know, if you take away their one forty to

932
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 2: fifty yard run they allow every game, then there are

933
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 2: average yards per rush all out as in the top

934
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 2: five in the NFL. So look, you don't want to

935
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 2: do that. But what I'm saying is they're not just

936
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 2: getting gashed on a down to down basis like last year.

937
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: They're a little better in that department. And on the

938
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, I don't see how the

939
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 2: Chargers moved the ball here. They are extremely limited at

940
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 2: a receiver. They also have major offensive line problems, which

941
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 2: will show here against the San Francisco front. And you

942
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 2: saw it last week. Atlanta under man's secondary can't get

943
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 2: pressure the charters offense. Still, it was a slot and

944
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 2: probably got fortunate to win that game. And they just

945
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 2: got the twenty four points against a bad Atlanta defense.

946
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:01,959
Speaker 2: Now you're playing one of the best defense the NFL

947
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 2: that's getting healthier. Also, San Francisco's elite at covering backs

948
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 2: out of the backfield, number two in the NFL. So

949
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 2: you know, it doesn't look like Williams is going to

950
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 2: play Keenan Allen still isn't practicing. You can't really dump

951
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 2: it off to Eckler all day. Your offensive line is

952
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 2: a mess. You're gonna under like, how are you going

953
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 2: to move the ball? So I think San Francisco will

954
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 2: be able to control the clock here move the ball.

955
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 2: It won't be as successful some might think, but the

956
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 2: slower team in this game is going to possess the

957
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 2: ball for a majority of the game. I just can't

958
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 2: see the Chargers doing much, but I think their defense

959
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 2: will battle. Give me the under here forty five and

960
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 2: a half. Also, the forty nine Ers just always as

961
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 2: favorites at home, like they always just make make this

962
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 2: make They just will play down whoever they're playing and

963
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 2: make it a game somehow. So that means I just

964
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 2: can't see the Chargers scoring one. So that means this

965
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:57,879
Speaker 2: game will be like twenty to seventeen or something like that.

966
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 4: I'm on the same page. I mean, I'm actually not

967
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 4: as high in the Chargers run defenses year. I think

968
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 4: the run defense is actually pretty bad, and that's probably

969
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 4: the biggest concern for this number going over. But beyond that,

970
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 4: I mean, you have a San Francisco team that nothing's

971
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 4: going to be down the field, everything's gonna be short passes.

972
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 4: And then Justin Herbert is doing the same thing this year.

973
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 4: Everything's short and San Francisco is allowing the third lowest

974
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 4: defensive average up to target at six point three. So

975
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 4: I don't think that's going to change for the charge.

976
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 4: And if Herbert's not making explosive plays, then you're just

977
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 4: probably relying on run after the catch, which could happen,

978
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 4: but it could be like a twenty seven thirteen nine

979
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:46,480
Speaker 4: or win. From my total, I am going with the

980
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 4: Broncos Titans under thirty six and a half. Let's just

981
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 4: go low here, because you have two offenses that are

982
00:48:56,560 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 4: outside the top twenty and DVOA two top ten defenses.

983
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 4: The Broncos are number two on defense, the Titans are

984
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,959
Speaker 4: number ten, Broncos number twenty seven on offense, Titans number

985
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 4: twenty two. And then look at this Titans offense, and

986
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,359
Speaker 4: you've talked about it. They're averaging just eighteen point six

987
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 4: points per game this year, which is twenty fourth in

988
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 4: the league, and that is despite a league high seventy

989
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 4: eight point six percent red zone touchdown conversion rate. Well,

990
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 4: now you're facing a Broncos defense who's the best in

991
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:32,240
Speaker 4: the league on defense in the red zone there, allowing

992
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 4: just twenty six point three percent of opponent red zone

993
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 4: possessions to score touchdowns. And then you look on the

994
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 4: other side and Denver on offense, they're the worst team

995
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 4: in the red zone at thirty five percent, and the

996
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 4: Titans are they're pretty good. They're at eleventh in conversion

997
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 4: rate and at fourth and DVOA, which adjusts for strength

998
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 4: to schedule. So two excellent red zone defenses. They're not

999
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 4: going to get anything in a red zone. They're not

1000
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,000
Speaker 4: gonna get anything on third down. It's gonna be a

1001
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 4: lot of punts in this game. And then the Broncos

1002
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 4: average pace, but the Titans' slowest team in the league

1003
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 4: in neutral situations at thirty three point nine seconds per play,

1004
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 4: So that should shorten the game. And it's got you know,

1005
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 4: don't overthink you here under seven to one in Broncos

1006
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 4: game this year at six and two and Titans games

1007
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 4: four straight Broncos games under, five straight Titans games under

1008
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 4: and per actually has day to win. You have both

1009
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:32,880
Speaker 4: teams in a game that have hit the under at

1010
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:35,479
Speaker 4: least three times in a row. The under in that

1011
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 4: game is thirty nine twenty six one sixty since two

1012
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,399
Speaker 4: thousand and three, covering by an average of two point

1013
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 4: eight points per game, so nearly a field goal. And

1014
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:49,879
Speaker 4: remember it took sixty six minutes for Tennessee and one

1015
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 4: of the best offenses in the league, to get to

1016
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 4: thirty seven points, so now you're talking about one of

1017
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 4: the worst in the Broncos. I think the Broncos, you know,

1018
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 4: awful bye, they might do some things and you're probably

1019
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 4: getting week willis here.

1020
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: You know, Tannehill did return to practice, so we'll see.

1021
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:05,759
Speaker 4: But either way, I think it's gonna be a run

1022
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 4: heavy game plan, uh for Tennessee, and uh don't don't

1023
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 4: expect Denver's defense to dominate and hold Tennessee out of

1024
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 4: the end zone in the red zone, which is something

1025
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:16,399
Speaker 4: that most teams haven't been doing.

1026
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, every Broncos game is the same, so uh, don't

1027
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 2: disagree here, But I'll all have more on this game

1028
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 2: and the next second.

1029
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 4: All right, let's jump into it. Our favorite teaser of week.

1030
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1031
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:38,320
Speaker 3: Don't don't change, don't.

1032
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 1: Tease me please.

1033
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 4: Stucky has a lot of excellent content out on how

1034
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 4: you go about approaching teasers, what key numbers are trying

1035
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:57,719
Speaker 4: to tease through. So google stucky teasers, uhs and uh

1036
00:51:57,920 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 4: you can find all of that content.

1037
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 3: Where are you going.

1038
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: Talk about the Steelers earlier teasing them up over a

1039
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 2: touchdown in WHI should be a low scoring game and

1040
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna tease them with the Broncos up over a touchdown. Again,

1041
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: he hears tease when you can. If you can tease

1042
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 2: through three and seven, that is ideal, especially in lower

1043
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 2: scoring games. Yeah, I mean the Broncos off the buyer,

1044
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 2: Titans off a hard fought loss to the Chiefs, their

1045
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 2: defense on the field for ninety one plays. I think

1046
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 2: the Broncos are gonna win this game. And you mentioned

1047
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 2: the red zone touchdown percentage. Probably some regression coming there.

1048
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:32,720
Speaker 2: Titans lead the league at seventy nine percent, like you said,

1049
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:34,759
Speaker 2: Broncos worse in the league at thirty five percent. No

1050
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 2: team has finished that high or that low for the

1051
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 2: past ten seasons, so there's definitely some regression coming. Tennessee's

1052
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 2: always up there because of Derrick Henry, but they now

1053
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,600
Speaker 2: have a worse offensive line and no receivers. They won't

1054
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 2: break records. Is the best red zone offense of all time,

1055
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:51,880
Speaker 2: and I think Malik Will's gonna start or a severely

1056
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 2: hand per Tenna, but I think it's willis. They can't

1057
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 2: throw the ball Denver, you can't throw on them anyway.

1058
00:52:57,480 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna load the box here and Titans will

1059
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: be getting very, very lucky in many games there. I mean,

1060
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 2: they're twenty ninth at net yards per play. Broncos are fifth.

1061
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:10,319
Speaker 2: By the way, Tennessee has some major aggression coming. But

1062
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 2: every Broncos game is a saying this will be and

1063
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 2: Titans too. They somehow make every game close and end

1064
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 2: up winning them. Broncos have every game is close and

1065
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: they end up losing them. So I'm glad they take

1066
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 2: over a touchdown here.

1067
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, Broncos games averaging thirty one point six a game.

1068
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 3: It's like they just can't set the total owner.

1069
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 4: But I agree, you know it's a I'm going with

1070
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 4: the same teaser, so we won't. I won't spend too

1071
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 4: much time on it because you pretty much said it.

1072
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 4: But like the Steelers and yeah, the Broncos, their defense

1073
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 4: leaves them in every game and coming off the buy,

1074
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,440
Speaker 4: I think they should be competent. They'll have prepared for

1075
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 4: the Titans, who, like you said, are coming off a

1076
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 4: you know, shorter rest and a game where they kind

1077
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 4: of had to do a lot. All right, So Steelers

1078
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 4: up to seven and a half Broncos up to eight

1079
00:53:57,960 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 4: and a half are both going with that For the tea,

1080
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:05,480
Speaker 4: there was to get into our money line underdog parlay.

1081
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:08,720
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1082
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

1083
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 4: All right, stuck, you did in six out of nine weeks.

1084
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 4: Both neither of us hit last week, but used to have.

1085
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 2: I could have had the best.

1086
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, some weird, weird calls at the end of

1087
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 4: that game.

1088
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,399
Speaker 3: But where are you going this week?

1089
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go. Let's go with Denver just talked about

1090
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 2: it high variants game like I could end like twelve ten.

1091
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:35,320
Speaker 2: It's gonna come down to, like who throws a pick

1092
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:37,960
Speaker 2: in their own territory. I think this line will come down,

1093
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 2: so I think, but will's gonna start And like I said,

1094
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 2: ninety one plays for that Tennessee defense last week in

1095
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 2: primetime game, Denver off a bye. I think this game

1096
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 2: should be a coin flip. So I'm glad they take

1097
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 2: a plus money in a game where like a safety

1098
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 2: could win it.

1099
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 4: Why do you think it's like plus three or well,

1100
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 4: I got to guess it's down at two and a

1101
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 4: half now.

1102
00:54:56,719 --> 00:55:00,279
Speaker 3: But you think that like people were the book makers.

1103
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:01,719
Speaker 4: Are just kind of counting on Tannehill or what because

1104
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 4: I mean, Denver's also coming off of buye.

1105
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 3: Actually seems no.

1106
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 2: One wants to bet Denver. And then people in Tennessee

1107
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 2: keeps covering. They've covered six in a row, so they

1108
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 2: keep making people money. Who wants to bet Denver to

1109
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 2: win at Tennessee when all Tennessee does is that they

1110
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: just find ways to cover. But uh, yeah, I think

1111
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 2: it was kind of a hedge. But I think it'll

1112
00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 2: continue to come down if Tannehill is announced out.

1113
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 4: All right, I'll go with Arizona plus one oh six here,

1114
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:31,240
Speaker 4: And I know Cliff does not beat McVeigh.

1115
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 3: It never happens.

1116
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 4: But as we were recording this, there is some uncertainty

1117
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 4: about Matthew Stafford, and you know he's in a concussion protocol.

1118
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 3: Don't know if he's gonna go.

1119
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:47,479
Speaker 4: And even before right even before that, though, I'm looking

1120
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 4: at this game trying to handicap it. You know, with

1121
00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 4: the prior knowledge that McVeigh owns Cliff, I'm trying to

1122
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:57,799
Speaker 4: figure out, like, okay, well what is Thatt like on

1123
00:55:57,840 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 4: the field, Like what is actually going to give the

1124
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:04,279
Speaker 4: ram that edge in this game? And I really don't

1125
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 4: think this Rams team is the same as those teams

1126
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 4: that have historically owned Cliff because now they're not getting

1127
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 4: pressure and that's really you know, you want to pressure

1128
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 4: Kyler Murray. I mean, that's very haphazard, sloppy play when

1129
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 4: he's under pressures. Passer ratings very poor. But you know,

1130
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 4: this Rams defense not getting pressure anymore. And on the

1131
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 4: other side of the ball, you know, maybe they get

1132
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 4: shelting back, which would help a lot because Evans has

1133
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 4: been like pretty much the worst lineman in the game

1134
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 4: on the interior for the Rams. But they can't really

1135
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 4: block their very one dimensional on offense. So it's like

1136
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 4: a lot of their edges that they've had over the

1137
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 4: Cardinals in previous previous.

1138
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:45,799
Speaker 3: Years really aren't there.

1139
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 4: So you know, even if Stafford plays, I think Arizona

1140
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:51,839
Speaker 4: might surprise some people here and we know this is

1141
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 4: this is the Arizona spot on the road. Everyone counting

1142
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 4: them out. Cliff thirteen to eight and two sixty two

1143
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:03,000
Speaker 4: percent as a road dog on the money line. That's

1144
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:06,280
Speaker 4: a seventy ROI so give me the Cards.

1145
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:10,439
Speaker 2: Yeah. My problem is it's also the spot where you fade, Yeah,

1146
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 2: Cliff after the second half of the year. Yeah, I

1147
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 2: mean big Veays puts seven to one six one and

1148
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 2: one against the spread. Murray only eight touchdowns in eight

1149
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 2: games against the Rams, averaging twenty rushing yards. Also, and

1150
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 2: then Hopkins has been shut down in this matchup as well.

1151
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 2: The thing that would worry me is, yeah, the Rams

1152
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 2: aren't getting pressure, which would help, but they might be

1153
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 2: able to get pressure here because the Cardinals into your

1154
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:33,440
Speaker 2: offensive line. I mean, it is a mess. What's his

1155
00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 2: name for? Seattle looked like Aaron Donald last week, So

1156
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 2: what's Aaron Donald going to look like? I mean, they

1157
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 2: were They couldn't even snap the ball you will, I mean,

1158
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:45,600
Speaker 2: Hernandez went out and they have a rookie in there guard.

1159
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 2: It was a disaster. They're intier offensive line. Now you

1160
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:51,000
Speaker 2: also lose boot of Baker, your defensive leader on the

1161
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 2: back end, which certainly doesn't help.

1162
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 3: But this game is cross Yeah, I means were just bad.

1163
00:57:57,160 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, we know the Cardinals are shaky, but

1164
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 4: the Rams that's the issue.

1165
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 3: The Rams are just a shaky at this point. You know,

1166
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 3: I don't see any reason why the Cardinals couldn't win

1167
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 3: this game.

1168
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, especially well maybe Wolford going in there and running around.

1169
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 2: Maybe you don't want that. He actually can move around

1170
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 2: a little bit.

1171
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I went to I went to a preseason game

1172
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 4: with Wolford a couple you know, earlier this year. Rams

1173
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 4: fans don't want that, trust they don't.

1174
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 2: Run around a little bit.

1175
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:24,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just it's.

1176
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 4: It's like Sam Allender running around against the Patriot Not

1177
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 4: really great.

1178
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:30,000
Speaker 3: All right.

1179
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 4: So if you probably way the Broncos plus one to

1180
00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 4: eighteen and the Cardinals plus one oh six, it's about

1181
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 4: three point five x payouts, So one hundred gets you

1182
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 4: four forty nine back. Hopefully we can get back on

1183
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 4: track and hit one of these again. But now it's

1184
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 4: time for the best of the rest of games. We

1185
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:54,600
Speaker 4: haven't covered in any of their segment, but are still,

1186
00:58:54,680 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 4: as they say, meaningful to some That's gonna be a touchdown,

1187
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 4: but that made me meaningful to some of.

1188
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 3: You, and you know what I mean. All right.

1189
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 4: First up, we got the Lions at the Bears.

1190
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 3: The Bears are three point favorites.

1191
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,280
Speaker 4: In Soldier Field, the totals forty eight and a half,

1192
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 4: and I wanted to get your thoughts on. You know,

1193
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 4: we talk a lot about kind of adjusting to things

1194
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 4: that change and schematic changes.

1195
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:25,240
Speaker 3: One thing I've noticed, justin.

1196
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 4: Fields start to start the year, he was the worst

1197
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:31,840
Speaker 4: quarterback against the blitz the last three weeks when he's

1198
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 4: been blitzed thirty four dropbacks twenty three of twenty eight,

1199
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 4: two hundred and ten yards, five touchdowns, no picks, eighty

1200
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 4: two percent completion percentage seven and a half yards an attempted,

1201
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 4: only three sacks taken on those thirty four dropbacks. Weeks

1202
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,400
Speaker 4: one to six when he was blitzed fifty dropbacks twelve

1203
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:53,919
Speaker 4: of thirty one, just thirty nine percent completion for only

1204
00:59:53,960 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 4: six point four yards per attempt and ten sacks on

1205
00:59:56,880 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 4: fifty dropbacks, so about twenty percent of the time. So,

1206
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:01,360
Speaker 4: I mean he's just come completely turned it around, kind

1207
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:03,200
Speaker 4: of like we were talking with Lamar.

1208
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 3: You know, just kind of flipping the script against the blitz.

1209
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 4: I wonder if you notice that against fields, and does

1210
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 4: it give you any angles for this one?

1211
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's he's improving, which is what you

1212
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 2: want to see for a quarterback in his second season. Also,

1213
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 2: like he hasn't had the best surroundings, so like it

1214
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 2: might have, it's going to take it a little longer.

1215
01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:26,480
Speaker 2: Now he's gotten better. He has better coaching, in my opinion,

1216
01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 2: just as important, it's the designed runs. He had twenty

1217
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 2: six designed runs in his first sixteen starts. By the way,

1218
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson one hundred and forty five in his first

1219
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:43,240
Speaker 2: sixteen starts. It's what a competent organization does. But Fields

1220
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,880
Speaker 2: now better coaching. Last three starts twenty one, twenty one,

1221
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 2: his last three starts twenty six in his first sixteen

1222
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 2: and he's going nuts. He just broke the single game

1223
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 2: rushing record, So I think him running has also given

1224
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 2: a lot more confidence overall. He's obviously improving, getting more

1225
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:02,920
Speaker 2: comfortable just in the game overall. So yeah, I would

1226
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 2: with the way that this Bears offense is trending and

1227
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:09,040
Speaker 2: Fields is trending, and the issues that the Bears have

1228
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 2: on defense, Like I mean, they're also just like trading

1229
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 2: away their best players. They're they're like definitely an overteam. Yeah,

1230
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 2: but I don't golf, who's ten and one straight up

1231
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:20,960
Speaker 2: on the road in his last eleven starts, losing by

1232
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:24,480
Speaker 2: thirteen points per game. Golf turns into a pumpkin outdoors.

1233
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I don't know if I could trust.

1234
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:30,320
Speaker 2: The Lions here, So I don't know I would lean

1235
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 2: the Bears lean over. I'll probably end up staying away,

1236
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 2: but I definitely think that the Bears are trending up.

1237
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 2: And then my just a question that I wanted to

1238
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:45,240
Speaker 2: ask you is fields Trevor Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, By

1239
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 2: the way, Jet said, I do want to say something

1240
01:01:46,800 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 2: nice about the Jetsons. Their defense last week really impressive

1241
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 2: because they've been playing a lot of backup quarterbacks, so

1242
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:56,640
Speaker 2: I wanted to see them do it against an elite offense.

1243
01:01:57,040 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 3: I was saying this. I was screaming it out, man.

1244
01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 3: I was like, Yo, this is it. It's just they're

1245
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:01,720
Speaker 3: too talented, Like I know.

1246
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:04,240
Speaker 2: You can also get a pressure without blitzing, which is yeah,

1247
01:02:04,440 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 2: it's key. So do you got justin fields Trevor Lawrence,

1248
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:14,440
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Sam Ellinger. Those are

1249
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 2: your quarterbacks from the twenty twenty one draft class. Taking

1250
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 2: what in the first couple of rounds, like you're are

1251
01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 2: you taking fields? Going for it? I mean, it's not Wilson,

1252
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 2: it's not Ellinger. So it basically comes down to like Jones,

1253
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 2: Lawrence or Fields. If you asked me a year ago,

1254
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:37,720
Speaker 2: there was zero chance I'm taking fields, I might, I

1255
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 2: might take fields.

1256
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:40,480
Speaker 4: Now yeah I'm taking fields. I don't think you think

1257
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 4: it's a question. I've I've watched every field again large times.

1258
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 2: If you think that he can get to that ceiling,

1259
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:49,960
Speaker 2: I don't think that any other quarterbacks are even worth mentioning.

1260
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:52,800
Speaker 2: But like it's been this year two with Lawrence. Now

1261
01:02:52,840 --> 01:02:55,160
Speaker 2: we're seeing the improvement with Fields, who's in a much

1262
01:02:55,200 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 2: worse situation.

1263
01:02:57,040 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm telling you, I'm watching Lawrence very cool, and

1264
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:04,440
Speaker 4: something's just not quite right. It's like, yes, he has

1265
01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 4: he has talent, he has physical tools, but it's just

1266
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 4: something about the way he plays quarterback is just nothing's

1267
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:17,720
Speaker 4: nothing really comes easy. Throws are not quite as accurate

1268
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 4: as they need to be. Puts the ball in Harm's way,

1269
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:23,880
Speaker 4: can't always finish with throws in the red zone. Like

1270
01:03:23,920 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 4: it's just I don't know, I don't know when it's

1271
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 4: going to start. I mean, yeah, we'll give him a

1272
01:03:28,440 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 4: mulligan for last year, but now, like you said, we're

1273
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:34,960
Speaker 4: halfway through the next year. He's got an upgraded receiving court,

1274
01:03:35,160 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 4: upgraded coaching staff.

1275
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 3: You know, they haven't been getting blown out.

1276
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,560
Speaker 4: They're always in the game, so it's not like just

1277
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:43,040
Speaker 4: playing with a shit supporting cast. And it's just still

1278
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:47,160
Speaker 4: very underwhelming against everyone pretty much but the Colts. So yeah,

1279
01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:49,520
Speaker 4: I'd be worried about Lawrence if I'm a I'm a

1280
01:03:49,600 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 4: Jags fan, honestly.

1281
01:03:51,960 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 3: All right, Uh, next one up, we.

1282
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:59,480
Speaker 4: Got Davis Mills and the Texans going to East rust

1283
01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:01,160
Speaker 4: Her to take on the Giants. Giants five and a

1284
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:03,880
Speaker 4: half point favorites total forty and a half. There has

1285
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 4: been some sharp action on the over here that Texans

1286
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:09,920
Speaker 4: defense against the run not very good Giants coming off

1287
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:10,200
Speaker 4: of buye.

1288
01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:11,240
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on this one?

1289
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:13,400
Speaker 2: The Giants homeowners are fifty to one.

1290
01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 3: No kind of caught my attention.

1291
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:18,640
Speaker 2: Points per game. I had no interest in this. I

1292
01:04:18,680 --> 01:04:20,080
Speaker 2: think there's a little bit of value in the Giants.

1293
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 2: They're dealing with some key injuries, but should be able

1294
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:24,440
Speaker 2: to just line up and run it. Do I ever

1295
01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:26,320
Speaker 2: want to back this Giants team? Laying a number.

1296
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 4: No.

1297
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:30,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, My sets up is like Giants winning buy they

1298
01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:31,520
Speaker 2: always do.

1299
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:36,080
Speaker 4: It twenty two to seventeen, twenty two. They'll miss an

1300
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 4: extra like that, get a safety.

1301
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 2: No interest in this game, we're talking about it.

1302
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 4: And the final one the Colts at the Raiders Raiders

1303
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 4: five and a half point favorites total forty two and

1304
01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:54,040
Speaker 4: a half sharp action on Vegas in the under and

1305
01:04:55,240 --> 01:04:59,320
Speaker 4: cold to another team I was thinking about because there's

1306
01:04:59,360 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 4: just so much on certainty. But they actually do match

1307
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 4: up well with the Raiders. I mean they play a

1308
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 4: ton of zone. The Raiders have not been doing a

1309
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 4: car in the you know car in the offense have

1310
01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 4: not been doing well against own coverage. They they can

1311
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:19,440
Speaker 4: stop the run, they get pressure that without blitzing a

1312
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:25,680
Speaker 4: ton and Ellinger now is gonna be indoors and you know,

1313
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:27,560
Speaker 4: not going against the defense that gets a ton of

1314
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:31,520
Speaker 4: pressure and the defense that you know struggled against running

1315
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:34,240
Speaker 4: backs out of the backfield. So I think the coach

1316
01:05:34,360 --> 01:05:36,320
Speaker 4: match up, but I have no idea how to handicap

1317
01:05:37,280 --> 01:05:40,920
Speaker 4: with Jeff Saturday and this you know, random offensive coordinator

1318
01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:42,479
Speaker 4: and all this, Like, I don't know what it's gonna

1319
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:42,720
Speaker 4: look like.

1320
01:05:42,760 --> 01:05:43,520
Speaker 3: Do you have any idea.

1321
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I can't figure out the Raiders. Here's

1322
01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:48,560
Speaker 2: I bet them against the Titans. I thought that they

1323
01:05:48,560 --> 01:05:52,080
Speaker 2: should have covered. I bet them against the Chiefs. They

1324
01:05:52,080 --> 01:05:57,680
Speaker 2: can cover, yeah, and then I bet them against Uh.

1325
01:05:57,800 --> 01:06:00,800
Speaker 2: The Broncos got lucky there. I didn't learn anything in

1326
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:02,640
Speaker 2: any of the games. I can't fig I don't know

1327
01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:07,720
Speaker 2: who they are, so very weird team. The Colts would

1328
01:06:07,720 --> 01:06:10,880
Speaker 2: scare me here because of Saturday. There was a if

1329
01:06:10,920 --> 01:06:14,560
Speaker 2: you go back to a famous argument on the sidelines

1330
01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:16,640
Speaker 2: between Manning and Saturday, and he's just like, when are

1331
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:18,600
Speaker 2: we going to run the ball? Run the ball? We

1332
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:21,040
Speaker 2: came off the field and we exchanged words of how

1333
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:22,200
Speaker 2: we thought they should get done.

1334
01:06:22,560 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 1: And Jeff comes off and says, we need to be

1335
01:06:25,480 --> 01:06:29,480
Speaker 1: running the ball down there, and I just I just snapped.

1336
01:06:29,680 --> 01:06:31,200
Speaker 3: Right, we call them plays.

1337
01:06:31,640 --> 01:06:36,120
Speaker 2: We got to run the ball.

1338
01:06:36,360 --> 01:06:39,360
Speaker 3: We run it down there, We run it down Jeff.

1339
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:44,960
Speaker 2: Will I was calling come and now he came out

1340
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:46,360
Speaker 2: and he said, you know, he doesn't want to go

1341
01:06:46,440 --> 01:06:48,760
Speaker 2: for it as much and he wants to worry about

1342
01:06:48,800 --> 01:06:50,560
Speaker 2: just getting points. Like I feel like the Colts are

1343
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:52,840
Speaker 2: just gonna turn around and handed off like a hundred

1344
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:56,160
Speaker 2: times and be so underful, not be aggressive at all. Yeah,

1345
01:06:56,200 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 2: I would look at the Colts defense played really well

1346
01:06:58,680 --> 01:07:00,640
Speaker 2: last week. They're off it's a line is a mess.

1347
01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 2: Tailor is obviously not healthy. Allender was a mes last

1348
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:04,959
Speaker 2: week going to know how bad their offense was last week.

1349
01:07:05,240 --> 01:07:05,920
Speaker 3: I mean, Joe.

1350
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 2: Belchi came out and they he changed play cars. He

1351
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 2: said the Colts knew their place and they still got

1352
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:10,560
Speaker 2: blown out.

1353
01:07:10,880 --> 01:07:13,280
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I heard that, actually, nut.

1354
01:07:14,160 --> 01:07:19,560
Speaker 2: The Colts were negative thirty five EPA. That's their worst

1355
01:07:19,640 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 2: game since two thousand. That's the ninth worst offensive game

1356
01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 2: since two thousand. They were sacked nine times, they had

1357
01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 2: zero third down conversions. They averaged one point nine yards

1358
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:33,560
Speaker 2: per play. That's the worst for Colts offense in forty

1359
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:36,440
Speaker 2: five years. Horrific. So, I mean, if you want to

1360
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:38,480
Speaker 2: buy a low on the Colts, this is probably the opportunity.

1361
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:40,720
Speaker 2: And the Braiders aren't a team that builds margin. I

1362
01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:42,480
Speaker 2: just still think it's gonna work out with Saturday and

1363
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 2: the play calling. By the way, the Colts are zero

1364
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 2: to nine against the spread in the first half. Maybe

1365
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:51,480
Speaker 2: the scripted portion gets better here and there's some unexpected calls,

1366
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:53,080
Speaker 2: but I don't trust Saturday. They do that like the

1367
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:56,440
Speaker 2: scripted Porschmans. So bad this year, and this is like

1368
01:07:56,440 --> 01:08:00,400
Speaker 2: the third offensive coordinator in like three weeks. It's see

1369
01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 2: only one other team that started oh to nine against

1370
01:08:02,520 --> 01:08:04,720
Speaker 2: the first has spread since two thousand and five to

1371
01:08:04,760 --> 01:08:08,000
Speaker 2: the seven Niners. That's it. Yeah, if you want to

1372
01:08:08,000 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 2: buy low, it's the Colts selling the Raiders. I can't

1373
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 2: figure out the Raiders, and I don't think I want

1374
01:08:12,680 --> 01:08:20,000
Speaker 2: to get involved with the Saturday experiment on a Sunday. Yeah, yeah,

1375
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:22,360
Speaker 2: I got nothing there. It is Coolts or nothing if

1376
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 2: you could stomach it.

1377
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:25,559
Speaker 4: I think the issue with the Raiders, from what I

1378
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 4: see is that this offense with Derek Carr, where it's

1379
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:31,960
Speaker 4: like the ball is supposed to go to a certain place,

1380
01:08:32,800 --> 01:08:35,479
Speaker 4: is just throwing Derek Carr off. Yeah, he's like he's

1381
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:38,880
Speaker 4: like two robotic now and he's he's and.

1382
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,519
Speaker 3: Yeah and now he's not really he's not really making reads.

1383
01:08:41,520 --> 01:08:44,600
Speaker 4: He's just he's like making reads but to a predetermined

1384
01:08:44,640 --> 01:08:46,800
Speaker 4: spot and then a lot of his throws are like

1385
01:08:46,880 --> 01:08:48,280
Speaker 4: unnecessarily contested.

1386
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:51,960
Speaker 3: It's just it's just odd. It's just it's doesn't look good.

1387
01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:54,360
Speaker 2: Also, before we get out of here, I did want

1388
01:08:54,400 --> 01:08:56,840
Speaker 2: to bring up something with Raven's futures. Wanted to get

1389
01:08:56,880 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 2: your thoughts on they're they're obviously they're's looked a lot better.

1390
01:09:01,120 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 2: I think it's going to improve that. They're my only future.

1391
01:09:03,560 --> 01:09:07,160
Speaker 2: As everyone listens podcast knows, if you look, it's like,

1392
01:09:07,240 --> 01:09:08,720
Speaker 2: if you look at their schedule the rest of the way,

1393
01:09:08,760 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 2: they were by this week, Panthers, Jags, Broncos, Steelers, Browns, Falcons, Steelers, Bengals,

1394
01:09:14,200 --> 01:09:17,800
Speaker 2: extremely easy, gonna get healthier after the bye. You saw

1395
01:09:17,800 --> 01:09:21,080
Speaker 2: the potential their defense with Bowser back. Adding Brokwan Smith,

1396
01:09:21,520 --> 01:09:23,680
Speaker 2: I think if you're going to buy the Ravens, you

1397
01:09:23,720 --> 01:09:27,679
Speaker 2: buy them right now during the bye because you also

1398
01:09:27,720 --> 01:09:31,719
Speaker 2: have the potential where we don't know what this Josh

1399
01:09:31,760 --> 01:09:34,640
Speaker 2: Allen injury is as well, and if it ends up

1400
01:09:34,640 --> 01:09:37,760
Speaker 2: being something more serious, you also have Jamar Chase out

1401
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:41,559
Speaker 2: for a while, and the Ravens schedule down down the stretch,

1402
01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:43,400
Speaker 2: it's like, you know, and then you look at the

1403
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:45,919
Speaker 2: state of the AFC, all the injuries on the Chargers,

1404
01:09:45,920 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 2: it's like, Ravens are gonna.

1405
01:09:47,880 --> 01:09:49,960
Speaker 3: Look Titans don't have a quarterback right now.

1406
01:09:50,080 --> 01:09:53,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And like with their schedule, they're going to

1407
01:09:54,400 --> 01:09:57,360
Speaker 2: pile on wins, and I think that their defense is

1408
01:09:57,360 --> 01:09:59,479
Speaker 2: only going to improve. I still want them to add

1409
01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:02,120
Speaker 2: another receiver at some point to Shaun Jackson will give

1410
01:10:02,160 --> 01:10:04,880
Speaker 2: them a little bit, but I think they still need

1411
01:10:05,320 --> 01:10:08,360
Speaker 2: a little more juice there. But yeah, I think if

1412
01:10:08,360 --> 01:10:11,120
Speaker 2: we're gonna buy the Ravens, you buy them right now. Yeah,

1413
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:12,439
Speaker 2: if you like it, but you would agree, right.

1414
01:10:12,479 --> 01:10:13,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree.

1415
01:10:13,040 --> 01:10:16,479
Speaker 4: I actually had that exact thought going into the Monday

1416
01:10:16,560 --> 01:10:18,040
Speaker 4: night game. I was kind of kicking myself that I

1417
01:10:18,080 --> 01:10:21,120
Speaker 4: didn't just like even before that, because I figured that

1418
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:22,720
Speaker 4: was one of the reasons I liked the under in

1419
01:10:22,760 --> 01:10:24,519
Speaker 4: that game. I was like, you know, this, this defense

1420
01:10:24,560 --> 01:10:26,439
Speaker 4: is gonna look a lot better with what you know,

1421
01:10:26,880 --> 01:10:28,599
Speaker 4: getting guys back and adding Roquon.

1422
01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:31,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that's Safety's and the NFL coming

1423
01:10:31,120 --> 01:10:32,120
Speaker 2: back after the bye. Marcus.

1424
01:10:32,200 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I don't think.

1425
01:10:33,520 --> 01:10:35,880
Speaker 4: I think people still are kind of thinking of the

1426
01:10:35,960 --> 01:10:38,280
Speaker 4: Ravens as this team that's choking away weeds and giving up,

1427
01:10:38,320 --> 01:10:40,120
Speaker 4: you know whatever they gave up to Tua in that

1428
01:10:40,160 --> 01:10:42,880
Speaker 4: fourth quarter. But now, man, it's this Ravens teams rigital

1429
01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:45,400
Speaker 4: I'm I'm with you. I think now's the time to

1430
01:10:45,479 --> 01:10:48,360
Speaker 4: invest in I mean they have a super easy schedule.

1431
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:52,200
Speaker 3: The Eagles have a super easy schedule. It's it's interesting.

1432
01:10:52,920 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 4: That is gonna wrap it up for the Week ten

1433
01:10:57,360 --> 01:11:00,599
Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast presented by Fan Duel. You can find

1434
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:03,800
Speaker 4: Stucky on Twitter at Stucky Too. You can find me

1435
01:11:03,960 --> 01:11:06,360
Speaker 4: at Chris Raybon. You can find us at those same

1436
01:11:06,400 --> 01:11:09,719
Speaker 4: handles on the free, award winning Action Network app, where

1437
01:11:09,800 --> 01:11:13,400
Speaker 4: you can follow our bets and track yours as well.

1438
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:15,400
Speaker 4: We're going to check out actionnetwork dot com for all

1439
01:11:15,439 --> 01:11:19,400
Speaker 4: of our betting content and Fantasylabs dot com for our

1440
01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:23,840
Speaker 4: DFS tools and models. Until next time, let's get this money.

1441
01:11:24,120 --> 01:11:24,920
Speaker 2: Let's go back up.