1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's August, 2 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: which means the MLB trade deadline has come and gone. 3 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:12,799 Speaker 1: Angry pirates fans, they're already running a muck here in 4 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: western Pennsylvania. It's a tale as all as time. But 5 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: what does it mean for the future betting markets? That's 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: where we're gonna tell you in this episode. I'm your host, 7 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: Seth Wilcock, and to help us get to the bottom 8 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,319 Speaker 1: of it all, I'm joined by the two host of 9 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: leading off Moving Forward, Chris Welsh and the great Joe 10 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: Rico from up North. Welsh, have you finally exhaled after 11 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,599 Speaker 1: all the movement over the past forty eight hours or so. 12 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 2: Not really, We're kind of still reeling from the whole thing. Winners, losers. 13 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: I think I saw something it was like sixty or 14 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 2: ninety prospects somewhere in there that were traded during the deadline. 15 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 2: I'm a prospect guy. A ton of implications, and you know, 16 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 2: we're going to talk about some of the teams that 17 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 2: made moves that I think are are gonna have some 18 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: impact on bets we might be comfortable taking a shot at. 19 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: And then obviously clearly where some of the lines are 20 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 2: fucking in so crazy deadline. Deep breath, everybody, Let's see 21 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: what we can make of it. 22 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 3: Joe, how are you hanging in there? 23 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: Man? I know it's pretty busy week both on the 24 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: content front, and I'm sure your dms right now are 25 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 1: just getting buried with all the questions from the action. 26 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 4: Do I drop David Bednar, Do I drop Camilo Doval? 27 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:18,680 Speaker 4: Do I pick up this guy? It's crazy, but we 28 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 4: love it, like every year. Who else and I were 29 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 4: talking about this a couple of days ago and he 30 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 4: asked me, do you expect this to be like a 31 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 4: busy deadline? I was like, ah, you know, I think 32 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,119 Speaker 4: it's gonna be kind of under the radar. And then 33 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 4: just an explosion. 34 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: It was. 35 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:31,960 Speaker 4: I couldn't even keep track of it. I was trying 36 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 4: to keep track of it in an article I was 37 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 4: writing yesterday, and I was like, all right, I'll do 38 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 4: a little write up for every trade, and then there's 39 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 4: thirty two trades or something, so it's like, Okay, this 40 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 4: is gonna take me a bit longer than I thought, 41 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 4: but great to be on with you guys. I was 42 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 4: on leading off yesterday when three for three on the bets. 43 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,559 Speaker 4: So we're hot, tea. Let's keep it going, all. 44 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 3: Right, man, today's program looks like this. 45 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: We'll dive into the biggest movers of the team futures 46 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: and the individual player award markets. We're also to kind 47 00:01:57,080 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 1: of get into the guy's strategy for capitalizing on a 48 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: market that is in flux post deadline, and of course 49 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: we'll round out the show give you our favorite long 50 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: shots for the rest of the way. 51 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 3: And before we get going, shout out to everyone. 52 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: Who's watching us, either on the Betting Pros YouTube channel 53 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: or listening on the audio feed. The easiest way to 54 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: support us. First, give this video a thumbs up if 55 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: you enjually this type of content. Also, make sure you're subscribing. 56 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: If you're new, we got a ton of content coming 57 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 1: your way this fall. You want to be included in that. 58 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: We want to make sure you don't miss a second 59 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 1: of it. Also, let us know down in the comments 60 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: below your favorite current future values. We want to hear 61 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: from you and boys, let's go ahead and dive into 62 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 1: the team future markets. A lot of bobbing and weaving 63 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 1: over the past forty eight hours. As we noted so 64 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: well s, who is the biggest positive or negative movers 65 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: since our last show, perhaps due to some of the 66 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: deadline moves. 67 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 2: So I think one of the bigger movers that has 68 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: been like positive or you know how we want to 69 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 2: look at it, like the odds have dropped were the 70 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 2: Seattle Mariners. But this is when I'm picking as a 71 00:02:57,440 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 2: bet that I really like. So I've actually got two 72 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 2: for you real quick. These are in this this world 73 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 2: of like World Series divisional you know, to make the 74 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 2: playoffs that I think you should pay attention to. But 75 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 2: the Seattle Mariners, I think the World Series market is 76 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 2: where the big thing happened. But it didn't look like 77 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 2: divisionally too much has changed yet, which I thought was 78 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 2: really interesting because they went out and made I think 79 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 2: two of the biggest moves or the biggest moves that 80 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 2: they needed to do for their team structure was bats. 81 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: They needed corner in fiddels, They needed some boppers. You 82 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 2: know that ballpark is one of the worst just overall 83 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 2: ballpark factors, So why not get some dudes that are 84 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 2: you know, big RBI, high contact hitter and Josh Naylor 85 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 2: and one of the biggest power hitters in baseball so 86 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 2: far this season with Iohanil Suarez, so I thought, paired 87 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 2: with their incredible rotation, great bullpen, that was the missing piece, 88 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 2: and the Mariners are four and a half games back 89 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 2: on the UH the Astros, who the Astros made some 90 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: impactful trades, but they have huge injuries that are going 91 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 2: out there. You've got the Rangers there. I just think 92 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 2: that's a really, really good looking mark that I would 93 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: pay attention to. And then keeping in again the World 94 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 2: Series League winner divisions that I think, I don't know 95 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 2: what the move has looked like from where they were 96 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 2: to where they are now. But a bet that I 97 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 2: really like is San Diego for the World Series at 98 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 2: twenty to one right now, because again the San Diego Padres, 99 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: if we're talking about the trade deadline making an impact 100 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 2: on either where these bets have moved or bets that 101 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 2: we now like, I love twenty to one for the 102 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 2: Padres right now. I think divisionally they're a solid bet. 103 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 2: I think with them bringing in Mason Miller, bringing in 104 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 2: the bats, they covered all the holes you can get 105 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 2: those starting pitchers to not go as deep as you 106 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 2: need to that I would look at. I think these 107 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:43,919 Speaker 2: are two of the biggest winners from the deadline the 108 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 2: Mariners and Padres. So if you don't like specifically what 109 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 2: I'm saying of like Seattle Division or Padres to win 110 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 2: the World Series or even to make the World Series, 111 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 2: I'll just throw you at you should pay attention to 112 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 2: these two teams in the betting market and play it 113 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 2: however you want Division to to make the World Series 114 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 2: to win. I'm looking all across the board because I 115 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 2: think these two teams are teams that are gonna be 116 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 2: very scary and short series. They both look like they're 117 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 2: a lined for the playoffs. So I gave you a 118 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 2: couple that I personally like, but I think I'm wide 119 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 2: open to any type of bet that you want to 120 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 2: leverage with these teams. If you wanted to take San 121 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 2: Diego to win the Division as well, I think that's 122 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 2: a really good bet. 123 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:22,799 Speaker 1: Man plus seven fifty. That feels like a great value 124 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: for a surging Mariners team potentially down the stretch. Here 125 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: one of my best friends, he's a Mariners fan. He 126 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: always gets his hopes up late in the year and 127 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: it never comes to fruition. So, Joe, do you think 128 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: this maybe is the year the Mariners can top the 129 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 1: Al West and any thoughts on the Padres out West 130 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: as well. 131 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, I like both of these picks a lot. The Mariners, 132 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 4: their pitching hasn't been as healthy as what we saw 133 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 4: last year, but they're still very, very strong. Ryan wu 134 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 4: has had a couple of rough starts, but he's not 135 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 4: somebody that you worry about. Kirby Gilbert Castillo, like this 136 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 4: is a solid rotation. They got a solid pen, and 137 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 4: like Walsh had talked about, their lineup is what they 138 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 4: really needed to work on. Just you're fighting an uphill 139 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 4: battle in that ballpark. So adding Naylor, adding Suarez, as 140 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 4: much as it probably hurts Welsh to have seen that 141 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 4: happen over the deadline, I think these are really good 142 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 4: moves for Seattle. And then you have San Diego, who 143 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 4: has four or five viable closers right now at this point. 144 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 4: If they there starting gets through five innings, it's game overall. 145 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 2: Baseball, without question. 146 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 4: I don't know if it's without questions the question. Look 147 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 4: at the Yankees though. Look at the Yankees. 148 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 2: William Reed stars and then you added Mason Miller and 149 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 2: Adrian Morion, j Ristrata. 150 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 4: They're fantastic. I think it's either them or the Yankees. 151 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: Right. 152 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 4: It was the Mets for like half an hour there, 153 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 4: and then it's. 154 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 2: Let's agree on this best bullpen in the NL. 155 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 4: Absolutely, absolutely the Yankees. I'll get to the Yankees in 156 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 4: a minute, but the Padres they also added in their 157 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 4: lineup as well, Loreano and O'Hearn. They've kind of been 158 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 4: struggling in left field. I hadn't really been talking about 159 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 4: a lot this year, but I think among left field 160 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 4: ops amongst all teams, they're like twenty six or something 161 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 4: in baseball. So Loreano is a night fit there. I'm 162 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 4: on board with both of these bets, plus two thousand 163 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 4: for the Padres. I might have to pause the stream 164 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 4: here and go place that myself. 165 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: Joe, when you're looking at either the World Series market, 166 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: the to win the Division or make the playoff market, 167 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: are there any risers and follower followers that you've been 168 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: kind of tracking over the past week or so with 169 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: all the movement happening across the bigs. 170 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 4: So this one literally hurts me to my soul. I'm 171 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 4: usually on this channel or on Fantasy Pros wearing a 172 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 4: Blue Jay's hat, but today I'm going to be telling 173 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 4: you to bet the Yankees, and I just think when 174 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 4: you look at what they did in their pen. You know, 175 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 4: reasonable people can differ on who has the better bullpen. 176 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 4: But Devin Williams, David Bednar, Camelo Doval, Luke Weaver, Jonathan L. Wisaga, 177 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 4: if he ever gets back to what he used to be, 178 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 4: that could be nasty. The starting rotation, I think they 179 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 4: probably should have added another arm there, But Rodan Freed Warren, 180 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 4: I think that's solid. And then you have the lineup 181 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 4: which has been one of the better lineups in baseball, 182 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 4: buoyed by Aaron Judge, who has been out, but Aaron 183 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 4: Judges expected to return in a couple of days. So 184 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 4: when I look at the Yankees in the American League 185 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 4: East as a whole, this feels like a very winnable 186 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 4: division for them. They're three and a half back of 187 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 4: the Blue Jays right now. You can get them at 188 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 4: plus one fifty. I look at run differential a lot, 189 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 4: and the Blue Jays, as much as I love them, dearly, 190 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 4: they have a twenty three run differential for the whole season. 191 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 4: It ranks fourth in the American League East, and the 192 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 4: Yankees are at plus ninety nine. They've won their last 193 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 4: three games. They're going to be getting judged back. I 194 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 4: think this bullpen is phenomenal, so I think they're worth 195 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 4: a sprinkle for the division and any other kind of 196 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 4: bets you want to look at for the Yankees if 197 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 4: you think they can go all the way, I wouldn't 198 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 4: put it past to you if that's where you're at 199 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 4: right now, especially if you're just looking at winning the 200 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 4: American League. I think the Yankees are a good team 201 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 4: to bet on from a number of different angles right now. 202 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 1: Welsh, what do you think because the Yankees were certainly 203 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: one of the heavier favorites to win a division throughout 204 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: the entire majors earlier this season when we've been tracking this, 205 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: and now they're suddenly back in the division, they have 206 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: the air and judge injury. Do you think they've done 207 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: enough to push themselves over the top and that plus 208 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: one to fifty is worth the worth of there for 209 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: the Ale East title? 210 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: What I do like is that you get the plus 211 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 2: money on it. I do I feel they did enough? No, 212 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 2: I actually kind of put them in the loser market 213 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 2: of the trade deadline. I think the trust the Red 214 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 2: Sox I think are worse. I think that's a bigger problem. 215 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 2: I think the Red Sox are much worse because they 216 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 2: sold us that you know, we're gonna trade devers and 217 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: we're gonna go get this, and they didn't do anything, 218 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,839 Speaker 2: and this was their time to go make a big 219 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 2: impactful move to take this division. So here's my only 220 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 2: problem with it is that I just actually think the 221 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,959 Speaker 2: division is very gettable across the board. The Rays were 222 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 2: ten games back, they went out and made moves because 223 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 2: they felt that they could still do something. So I 224 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 2: think it's a four dog race here that I don't 225 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 2: think the Yankees did enough. But I will say this 226 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: kind of forgot when you lay out those closers. It 227 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 2: is very padres ASKI really is maybe a one two 228 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 2: one B. But I think those trades were like protecting 229 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 2: the Louise Heel. Like Louise Heel's a starter that Joe 230 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 2: didn't mention that's going to come into the rotation. Having 231 00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: that type of a bullpen allows Louis Heel to just 232 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 2: stick to five innings. It at least allows all these 233 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:03,839 Speaker 2: guys so you don't have to go deep into game, 234 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 2: So it is kind of a starting pitcher protection play. 235 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 2: I think that you're getting plus money as the top 236 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 2: dogs or you know, close to the top dogs. I 237 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 2: know the Blue Jays are upright there. I think I 238 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,079 Speaker 2: could get down with it, but I'm not in love 239 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 2: because I think this division has the most flux. If 240 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 2: in one month from now we were like, can you 241 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 2: believe that the Rays and the Red Sox are at 242 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: the top of the division and the Blue Jays are 243 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,199 Speaker 2: down in the ad, we wouldn't be surprised. So you know, 244 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 2: I would love better odds. But getting the Yankees of 245 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 2: plus money with the bullpen moves they just made it's 246 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 2: not the worst thing in the world. 247 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 1: Before we keep it moving, I want to tell you 248 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: all about our Betting Pros betting systems tool that is 249 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: designed to help you find winning strategies and make smarter bets. 250 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:50,119 Speaker 1: Customize your betting systems by sport, bet type, and timeframe 251 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: to find the best opportunities using real time data in 252 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: expert analysis, track the performance of different betting systems over time, 253 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: and optimize your bets to increase your chance of success. 254 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,679 Speaker 1: Download the benk Pros app today or go to bettingpros 255 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 1: dot com slash systems to elevate your betting strategy and 256 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: start making smarter bets today, gentlemen, let's go ahead and 257 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,679 Speaker 1: let's move forward to the award markets that have really 258 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: seen a seismic shift over the past few weeks. And 259 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: Joe Rico, you were out front of one of these 260 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 1: on our last program. So who is your late season 261 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: momentum candidate for an award market, whether that's MVP or 262 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: Cy Young. 263 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 4: So I will say that a lot of the odds 264 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 4: at this point there is a dramatic favorite, whether it's 265 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 4: the Cy Young's, MVP's, Rookie of the Year, even Manager 266 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 4: of the Year. Everything seems to be minus three hundred 267 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 4: or so at the least. So you kind of have 268 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 4: to look for these little value plays, and you have 269 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 4: to spin some narratives. And the one that I'm spinning 270 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 4: is cal Rawley. And you know, I think Aaron Judge 271 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 4: is going to be back in a few days. You 272 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:52,959 Speaker 4: have to take the Yankees at face value and that 273 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 4: he's going to be fine, But you also have the 274 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 4: chance that that elbow injury is going to affect his power. 275 00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 4: I'm gonna be speaking out of both sides of my 276 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 4: mouth a little bit in this episode, but that is 277 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 4: a possibility that Aaron Judge comes back and he is 278 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 4: not quite what he was before. Cal Rawley is somebody 279 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 4: that is essentially matching him in terms of wins above replacement. 280 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 4: He's at six point four, Judge is at seven point one, 281 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 4: and Rawley's played four more games. But I think that 282 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 4: difference being as close as it is. If Raley gets 283 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 4: to fifty home runs, and it looks like he probably will, 284 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 4: he's at forty two right now, and he has an 285 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 4: eight win season as a catcher. If he's even close 286 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 4: to Judge, I think that there's a chance that Raley 287 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 4: gets it. Judge has a couple MVPs. There's a chance 288 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 4: that there's some voter fatigue there on top of the 289 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 4: fact that maybe he is not quite peak Aaron Judge 290 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,679 Speaker 4: when he returns. So there's only really one alternative here 291 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 4: to bet. It is cal Rawley if you are going 292 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 4: to look for the American League MVP, and I think 293 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 4: if you're looking at all the different markets, this is 294 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 4: probably the one that makes sense of the guys who 295 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 4: are not currently favored at the moment. 296 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,559 Speaker 1: Well and Joe, I think on our last show too, 297 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: you got him what six seven to one something like that, 298 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: so you were well ahead of the curve, so it 299 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: kind of played into your hand very favorably. Is is 300 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: this cal Rawley's race to lose? You think at this 301 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: point Welsh. 302 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 2: No, I don't think it's his race to lose, but 303 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 2: I think he's neck and neck, like you know, he's 304 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 2: got this. We spun this whole scenario in the last show, 305 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 2: which is very fun, not just then like hey, cal 306 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 2: Rally could be a fun bet, but we get we 307 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 2: gave the scenario, well, what was the scenario. Judge had 308 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 2: to get hurt. Judge had to get hurt for this 309 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: market to make a drastic and seismic change. I laid 310 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 2: out the big big one in the trek Schogle, yes, 311 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 2: and Joe laid out the cal Rally one. But it 312 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 2: was all built around the injury. We got that. The 313 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 2: other side of one of my narrative pieces was why 314 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 2: we would go against cal Rally would be that he 315 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 2: tapers back the Mariner's taper back. I'm against that now 316 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 2: because the Mariners have not I think they just won 317 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 2: the trade deadline and cal Rally really hasn't, like had 318 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 2: some big fall. So because those things didn't happen, that 319 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 2: bet looks so good from a time before do I 320 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: want to bet it right now at cal Raleigh on 321 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 2: plus money, like plus one and a half to want. 322 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,839 Speaker 2: I don't, I don't want. I don't think that's a 323 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 2: good value right now because Aaron Judge is coming back 324 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 2: in a couple of days, and if well, you just 325 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 2: laid up with Joe, just laid out. If the Yankees 326 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 2: are gonna go and win the division and they're gonna 327 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 2: take this East, which is messy right now, it's gonna 328 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 2: be because Aaron Judge is at the forefront of it, 329 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 2: and he's gonna get a lot of juice. And he 330 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 2: was like minus forty five billion or whatever it was 331 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 2: before he got hurt. So you don't think that this 332 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 2: is the opportunity if you want, I actually think to 333 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 2: jump in on a minus money Judge because if he 334 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 2: comes back and he hits, he's gonna snatch this right away. 335 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 2: But I don't think this is gonna be a unanimous 336 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 2: one because let's say, you know, he just gets back 337 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 2: to like vintage Judge and stuff like. I think this 338 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 2: will be a close race because of what cal Raley's 339 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 2: doing as a catcher, and the differentiating factor could be 340 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 2: if the Mariners go on a run like I'm kind 341 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: of proposing then it's gonna play out. But my main 342 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 2: thing here is is like I just don't think cal 343 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 2: has this locked up up and I don't think like 344 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 2: really low under two to one odds is where I 345 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 2: would want to go. But a Rico's bet from last show, Yeah, 346 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 2: it's absolutely genius right now. 347 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: So well, not only have you dabbled with the MVP odds, 348 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 1: the cy Young market, but you've also had some tickets 349 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: for Rookie of the Year. Where are you going here? 350 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: Is there any you know, potential late season riser, someone 351 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: who's gaining momentum down the stretch that you think could 352 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: make make a push in an award that that you 353 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: are comfortable betting at their current odds after the trade deadline. 354 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 2: So Joe laid it out a little bit. Here's the 355 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 2: problem with the award market. It's messy, and I think 356 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 2: everything you've got to spin a big narrative. And this is, 357 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: by the way, because I'm going to take a similar 358 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 2: path to Joe, even though I was like, I don't 359 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 2: really love the col rally. Yeah, there's nothing else to 360 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 2: bet unless you are in the true gambling and you 361 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 2: want to do you want to spin a narrative because 362 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 2: I mean, I'll give you one real quick, that's not mine. 363 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 2: I actually have this ticket and I would, God what 364 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 2: I love for it to cash. But like, if you 365 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 2: want to spin the narrative that Nick Kurtz could get hurt, 366 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 2: Cam Smith is like the most insane good odd right now. 367 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 2: If the Astros are gonna pick back up, he's five. 368 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 2: I have a twenty five to one ticket. Personally, I 369 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 2: think he's twenty five to one right now. Again, if 370 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 2: Kurts were to get hurt and miss you know, three 371 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 2: weeks guys a Smith, Yeah, he's on a nice tear. 372 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 2: The Astros just got some of their guys back. Like 373 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 2: you could absolutely see where he could get But that 374 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 2: is totally speculative, and that's hard to do in this 375 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 2: market and all the odds. There's no NL value. I 376 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 2: think there's kind of little value in the AL. We're 377 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 2: talking MVP Rookie of the Year. It's so far onto 378 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 2: Nick Kurtz right now. It's like minus one ninety in 379 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 2: the NL for Drake Baldon. There's just not a lot 380 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 2: of value. The one I'm going to come back to 381 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 2: and this is probably again in the same vein of 382 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 2: what Joe is doing, and I have had this ticket 383 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 2: for a little while, is Zach Wheeler is still plus money. 384 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 2: And the negative I would suppose is Paul Skeens is 385 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 2: finally picking up a couple of wins, which is not good. 386 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 2: But this team looks as bad as ever. And here 387 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 2: would be my narrative spin. Zach Wheeler right now has 388 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 2: more wins, a better K per nine, and the lower 389 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 2: walk per nine doesn't have that. I mean Skeins has 390 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 2: ERA right now, it's sub two, but we're talking low 391 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 2: two's for Zach Wheeler. And they just went out and 392 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,479 Speaker 2: got a closer who has moved way up in the 393 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 2: market who can shut down games to continue to get wins. 394 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 2: Can they really, Let's just arguably say Paul Skeins has 395 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:23,400 Speaker 2: a two ERA two ARA with nine wins. Can they 396 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 2: take that away from Zach Wheeler, who could have sixteen 397 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 2: wins and a two point three ERA and more strike. 398 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 2: I don't know. I think a Phillies are going to 399 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: be on a tear. I think there's a win perspective 400 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 2: to it. Wheeler's been important, he's got more protection for wins, 401 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 2: He's plus one thirty in markets. I have much better 402 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 2: odds earlier in the year at like eleven to one. 403 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 2: But this is probably of all of these, I feel 404 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 2: more comfortable about Wheeler than I do jumping in on 405 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 2: cal Raley, and unfortunately nothing else is I think, really 406 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 2: bettable in the awards market. Again, unless you speculate and 407 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 2: you want to be a gambling man and take a 408 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 2: twenty five to one Cam Smith, or you want to 409 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 2: take a twenty to one Kyle Schwarber if something happens 410 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 2: to Otani, which it was kind of floating out there, Like, 411 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 2: those are the plays if you want to really try 412 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 2: to make a calculated bet or play that like buy 413 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 2: out market, you know what I'm saying, Like, you go 414 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 2: and you get one of these guys and then the 415 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 2: market moves a little bit and then you can cash out. 416 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 2: Maybe there's a couple of those, but it's really between Wheeler, 417 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 2: I think, and cal Raleigh if you want like half 418 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 2: decent odds. 419 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 1: Right now, I don't want to make this show about me, 420 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 1: but I am the host, so I am going to like, 421 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: what are we doing in Pittsburgh, man? Like we get 422 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: nothing back for any of these players, like single A prospects. 423 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 1: I just don't understand, and then we have all these 424 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 1: expiring contracts, we just leam on the team for the year, 425 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: like like Joe helped me out, Like is it just 426 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: are we just dump at salary? Is that all we're doing. 427 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 4: I don't know what you guys are doing. To be 428 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 4: perfectly honest, I don't know why IKF wasn't traded. I 429 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 4: don't know why Fam wasn't traded. I don't know why 430 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 4: Keller wasn't traded. At least you traded Bednar. But from 431 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 4: what I understand and Welsh can speak more to the prospects, 432 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 4: it was kind of an underwhelming return for benit No and. 433 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 2: That's why I went because you actually, you guys got 434 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 2: kids is not for this show. But Raphael Flores was 435 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 2: a great get for them, super sneaky, good power. I 436 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 2: think up to triple a catcher. I actually really like 437 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 2: that get for what is you know, okay, a rental 438 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 2: type of closer. They didn't blow it out of the market, 439 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 2: but I actually think they did a decent job in trade. 440 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 2: But it's more negative that they had so many players 441 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 2: they did not trade and get anything for. But they 442 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 2: did a good job on the bed in our side. 443 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 3: Free bet I'm giving everyone right right now. I'm betting the. 444 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: Under on the Pirate season win total next year. Just 445 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 1: gonna just gonna do it out of fight. I'm gonna 446 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: go down there, P and C. I'll still enjoy my 447 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: icy light down by the river, but but I'm gonna be, 448 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: you know, secretly hoping potentially for some losses out there. 449 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 2: The gambler fight. 450 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 3: There you go. 451 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 2: Uh. 452 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros is now live on Twitch since opening day. 453 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: Joe Piece of Pat, Chris Welsh, and Joe Rico have 454 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: been live every weekday at twelve pm Eastern for leading off. 455 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: That's your daily dose of all things at baseball, news, bets, 456 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: and fancy advice, all in one place. Ask questions, get insight. 457 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: An interact live falls now at twitch dot tv slash 458 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: Fancy Pros, and you're never gonna miss a stream. A 459 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: bigger lineup of exclusive, interactive live content is on the way, 460 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: including some NFL stuff. 461 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:17,640 Speaker 4: Guys. 462 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: Has been a lot of fun over there in the 463 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: Twitch streets over the past few weeks, so make sure 464 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: you're hanging out with us over there at Twitch dot 465 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: tv slash Fantasy Pros. All right, guys, let's talk about 466 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: the trade deadline and how to exploit this shifting futures landscape. Well, 467 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: do you think the window is now open that this 468 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 1: market is potentially exploitable? It should we be diving in 469 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: head first right now? Or is it still kind of 470 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:41,959 Speaker 1: proceed with caution? 471 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 2: No, I think I laid it out. I think the 472 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 2: what I started the show with it in my mind 473 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 2: is teams that made significant moves that I think can 474 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 2: close the gap, that still have odds that you want 475 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 2: to play. So I would say, yes, it is exploitable. 476 00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 2: The example is the Padres, the Mariners, whether it's playing divisions, 477 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,679 Speaker 2: getting to the World Series, like I pitching, you know, 478 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 2: pitching is going to get you in September in October, 479 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 2: and I'm looking at the teams. I don't think enough 480 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 2: teams made big starting pitcher moves. But these teams that 481 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 2: went heavy in on on believers, I think that's a 482 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 2: great play why, Like the Padres, the Mariners already had 483 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 2: such a great rotation to me that they were missing 484 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 2: the offensive piece. They did that. So yeah, I don't 485 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 2: think the market the markets are going to move quick 486 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 2: on teams like the Dodgers, and frankly would be the 487 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 2: Yankees and the Red Sox. But guess what, none of 488 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 2: the big teams made the big, impactful moves. It was 489 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 2: these smaller teams that the markets are not willing to 490 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 2: move off of the big dogs or anything. And that's why, 491 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 2: Like the Padres are a good get because they're still 492 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 2: facing up against the Dodgers, but the Padres made moves 493 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,959 Speaker 2: literally across the board. So yes, the answer to it, 494 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: and I think I laid it out with my opening 495 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 2: vets is I do think the trade market creates some 496 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 2: exploitable opportunities. 497 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 1: Joe, what's your strategy when it comes to unit allocation 498 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: here for August in the futures market? Are we dumping 499 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: a bunch back in? Is this a time to maybe 500 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 1: start hedging some of your other bets that didn't fan 501 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: out earlier this season? How are you kind of playing 502 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: this as we head down the stretch and you know 503 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: odds are going to continue to get shorter and shorter 504 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: as the season progresses here. 505 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, for me, when you're betting it's more front loaded, 506 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 4: I like to place the more earlier in the season. 507 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 4: You get the better odds at this time of the year, 508 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 4: Like we've kind of laid out. If you're betting on 509 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 4: any of the futures, either you're taking a huge long 510 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,200 Speaker 4: shot that's going to be, you know, plus one thousand 511 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 4: or even worse, or you're betting somebody who is like, 512 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 4: you know, you're taking Drake Baldwin to Rookie of the 513 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 4: Year and it's minus two hundred. So I feel like 514 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 4: you get a lot more value betting earlier in the season. 515 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 4: This time of year, you know a lot of things 516 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 4: are going to change in terms of the Marcus after 517 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 4: the trade deadline, and I think maybe sometimes they can 518 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,400 Speaker 4: overcorrect a little bit. Baseball is a team sport more 519 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 4: than maybe any other sport, and one player can only 520 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 4: do so much, so they are going to be teams. 521 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 4: Maybe it's you know, and take any team that made 522 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 4: a big acquisition, they're gonna they're gonna see their odds 523 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 4: that are shifted, whether it's for the Division, World Series, whatever. 524 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 4: But a lot of the time it doesn't make a huge, 525 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 4: huge impact the way those teams are expecting and the 526 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 4: way the odds makers are expecting. I mean this is 527 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 4: an extreme example. Well, look at Mike Trout. The guy's 528 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 4: never won anything. You can be as great as you 529 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 4: can possibly be, and you're only one guy. So these 530 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 4: teams that are acquiring one or two players and you're 531 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 4: seeing big line shifts, I think some of the time 532 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,959 Speaker 4: that's overplayed and they probably shouldn't be moving as much 533 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 4: as they are. 534 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: You know, something that I often like to do in 535 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: motorsports futures or also in NFL futures is start parlaying 536 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 1: some of these heavy favorites at the end of the year. 537 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: So maybe you go get yourself like a scooball Cy 538 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 1: Young ticket, you know, put that with Tawny or something 539 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: like that, and start kind of building that that positive 540 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 1: e ev up as we close the season. But just 541 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 1: something I remember last year, I put out of Joe 542 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: Burrow come Back Player of the Year ticket with a 543 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 1: Josh Allen MVP and what was able to get a 544 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 1: nice return, even though that that was way more of 545 00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: a sweater than it should have been because Lamar was 546 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 1: awesome down the stretch. 547 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 3: But uh, let's go ahead, though, guys. 548 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 1: Let's round out the program as we always do with 549 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 1: our favorite futures long shots of the month. Welsh, this 550 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,359 Speaker 1: has kind of been your sweet spot this season. So 551 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 1: what do you have for us today that we need 552 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: to be investing in before it's gone. 553 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, and the it's just so much more diminished. We 554 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,919 Speaker 2: had such cool ones yeah in the season, and just 555 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 2: things have flowed, so it is a lot harder to 556 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 2: find something that is you know, we take like a 557 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 2: usually like you know, eight to one plus you know, 558 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 2: we want to go in bigger. Yeah, this one does 559 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 2: stand out to me, and I've talked a lot about 560 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 2: it in this show. But I'm going to go back 561 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 2: to the Podres here, and I obviously like you've got 562 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 2: the Phillies who are dangerous, You've got the Dodgers that 563 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 2: are dangerous. They've got to get through that divisionally, But 564 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,399 Speaker 2: you can play the podres to get to the World 565 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 2: Series eleven to one right now. So there's a big task, 566 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 2: and I suppose you could probably argue, like you know, 567 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 2: the al might be a better place to play that, 568 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,679 Speaker 2: but like, by the way, the Mariners to get to 569 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 2: the World Series, that's it's worse odds. And they you know, 570 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 2: really Yankees, so that you know they are I think 571 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 2: it's closer to eight to one. But I just really 572 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 2: I love that they went all in. I think it's 573 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 2: you know, it's imperative that they obviously win for what 574 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 2: they did. But you take O'Hearn, who is going into 575 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,160 Speaker 2: a worse environment for a lefty, but with what he's 576 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:22,640 Speaker 2: done this year, it's more lineup protection. Loreano defensively and offensive. 577 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 2: Loreano has had a crazy, sneaky season. They've got bench 578 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 2: help if Jackson Merrill just picks it up on the 579 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,199 Speaker 2: back half. This is paired with a you Darvish who 580 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 2: found a mechanical change and just spun a great one, 581 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 2: a bullpen that will allow Dylan Cees to not go 582 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 2: deep into games. Michael King, who could be rehabbing this 583 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 2: weekend that we could get back very soon. You've got 584 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 2: your rotation kind of back. You have one of them, 585 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 2: from Estrata to Morione to Jason Adam to Robert Swarez 586 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 2: to Mason Miller. You could go. You could let your 587 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 2: starters go four innings if you want, and put out 588 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 2: those relievers. They've got a great bullpen. They've got solid 589 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 2: starters that need a few things to go their way. 590 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: And I think a lineup that is now fully competitive 591 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 2: across the board in where the Dodgers are a little 592 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 2: wonky right now. I think the Phillies are probably the 593 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 2: scariest scariest here, But at eleven to one, I like 594 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 2: taking this bet because if they do move through the 595 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 2: World Series, you're going to get biout opportunities or through 596 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,639 Speaker 2: the playoffs, so you got some biout opportunities. But at 597 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 2: eleven to one, with what the Padres did, I think 598 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 2: this is like a solid long shot bet. Whatever making 599 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 2: in August. 600 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 1: Joe, anything you're seeing from a long shot standpoint right 601 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:32,160 Speaker 1: now that we should be considering. 602 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 4: So, like I mentioned earlier, I'm going to be speaking 603 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 4: out of both sides of my mouth a little bit, 604 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 4: and I'm sitting on the fence here because there's a 605 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 4: couple of different things that could happen with Aaron Judge. 606 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 4: Like I mentioned earlier, maybe he comes back and he's 607 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 4: hampered a little bit, and that would leave an opportunity 608 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,560 Speaker 4: for cal Rawley. But what if Aaron Judge comes back 609 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 4: and he's fine. Because this is a very short stay 610 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 4: on the IL doesn't seem to be any huge problem. 611 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,399 Speaker 4: You can bet Aaron Judge to lead major League Baseball 612 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 4: and home runs, and you can get it at plus 613 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 4: sixteen hundred. Right now, he's only five back of Cal 614 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 4: raw for the major league lead. So there is some 615 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 4: risk you're taking here. If Judge comes back and he's 616 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,400 Speaker 4: not himself, then this is not going to work out. 617 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,200 Speaker 4: But it's sixteen to one, he's only five home runs back. 618 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 4: That's a good week for Aaron Judge. It's a good 619 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,199 Speaker 4: series for Aaron Judge if he is right. So I 620 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 4: think that those odds. We've talked a lot today about 621 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 4: how it's hard to find good odds on anything. This 622 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,959 Speaker 4: one does seem like a no brainer, even if you're 623 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 4: just sprinkling five or ten bucks on it. It does 624 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 4: seem like there's a good chance if Aaron Judge does 625 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 4: come back and he's healthy the way that the Yankees 626 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 4: are saying that he's going to walk away with this. 627 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,199 Speaker 2: I love this one too, by the way, because I 628 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,440 Speaker 2: remember I had a bet like this months and months 629 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 2: ago and it was Otani funny. Yeah, And it looks okay, 630 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 2: Otani's two in the home run market, but Judge's one 631 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,640 Speaker 2: behind him with that miss time. So it's like, this 632 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 2: is now where you want to talk about that hedging, 633 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,359 Speaker 2: Like if I had this with this Otani ticket, I 634 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,239 Speaker 2: don't hate the idea of getting a sixteen to one 635 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 2: on Judge and you're getting two of the three top guys. 636 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 2: Obviously Raley has it right now, but it's not impossible 637 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,400 Speaker 2: fifteen homers in the last like forty five days from Judge. 638 00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,520 Speaker 2: It's not out of pocket. So this might be a 639 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 2: scenario where me personally having the Otani bet I could 640 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 2: hedge on it. But just in general, like a sixteen 641 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 2: to one for Judge to do it when he's coming 642 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 2: back in the next couple days. I think this is 643 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 2: a really sneaky one. I like this probably better than 644 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,880 Speaker 2: my pick. We're going for the long shots. 645 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 1: I know that obviously the Mariners are gonna need Cal 646 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 1: as much as they can. But being a catcher, will 647 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,960 Speaker 1: he see more rest days down the stretch as we 648 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,120 Speaker 1: get later in the season, You think, Welsh, that's. 649 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 2: An interesting way to speculate it. I'm gonna have to 650 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 2: say no, though. I think, okay, this division is too tight. 651 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,640 Speaker 2: You know, Okay, both the three big guys in this division, 652 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 2: they all made moves. The Angels are making moves. They 653 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 2: all were making moves. I think it's super super tight. 654 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 2: This is not the time where you can rest. They 655 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 2: could obviously dh him if they want, but I think 656 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 2: they need his bat in the lineup. Every single day. 657 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 4: He's played one hundred and seven out of one hundred 658 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 4: and ten games, and they are to catch him a 659 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 4: little bit. But I you know, maybe one day off 660 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 4: a week maybe, but other than that, I don't think so. 661 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 1: The guy's squads have to be unreal. Holy col Good 662 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 1: for him, Good for him. Man. Well all right, guys, 663 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 1: Well that's gonna do it for us today on the 664 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 1: Betting Pros Podcast, Thank you so much for watching. As always, 665 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 1: the best freeway to support us here is give this 666 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: video a thumbs up if you enjoy us type of content. Also, 667 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 1: make sure you're subscribing if you're new, and be sure 668 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: to download the Betting Pros app and sink your sportsbooks today. 669 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 1: For Chris Welsh and Joe Rico, I'm Seth Wilcock. 670 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 3: Take care of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Betting 671 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 3: Pros Podcast. 672 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 673 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts 674 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 1: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting 675 00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 1: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to 676 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros