1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 11 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 3: Joining us right now. 12 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 4: Someone who's definitive. 13 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 2: I mentioned Michael Mobison, and only in that category with 14 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 2: him is Dominique Constam. A tour of duty here there 15 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: credit Sueee for years with IRA Jersey and now holding 16 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: court with Steve Show over at Missoo Securities. Doctor Constant 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: joins us for this entire half hour. I've got to 18 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 2: rip up the script do an audible here. I'm going 19 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 2: to quote Rudiger Dornbush and Mi T, but there could 20 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 2: be many others, including your Cambridge and Oxford intervention and 21 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 2: unilateral intervention doesn't work. What's Japan's solution to the trilemma 22 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 2: they have that they've stumbled into post COVID. 23 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 5: Well, I guess, I mean, the best thing that you 24 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 5: can hope for they can hope for is that they 25 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 5: can have some sustainable increases in the short term interest 26 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 5: rates and normalize those on the back of you know, 27 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 5: obviously having a sustainable outlook for inflation, and then that 28 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 5: will allow basically the end to finally find this sort 29 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 5: of equilibrium if. 30 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: You get a higher interest rate regime, I believe that 31 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: means helping or paul yield up price. 32 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 3: That's what they're telling Is it a devaluation. 33 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 5: A depreciation of the wealth of Japan, well to some extent, 34 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 5: I mean, when you have a you know, when the 35 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 5: currency is weakening, there's obviously terms of trade effect, which 36 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 5: means the real income of the Japanese people in some 37 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 5: sense will be less of global terms. So there's definitely 38 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 5: a depreciation, you know, from that that side of things. 39 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 5: But at the same time, I mean, at the end 40 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 5: of the day, you know, their potential growth is very low. 41 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 5: There's a lot of damage has been done with very 42 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 5: low negative inflation over the years, and you know, that 43 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 5: that creates a source of social. 44 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 2: Critical One final question on this. They have an experiment 45 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: of reflation to get away from the cultural decades of 46 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 2: disinflation and outright deflation, Doctor Constum, is that experiment failed? 47 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 5: I know, I think it's I think it's too soon 48 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 5: to say. I think you can be sort of somewhat 49 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 5: optimistic that Japan is getting out of its whole. I mean, 50 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 5: you've now taken interest rates back to like twenty ten, 51 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 5: twenty eleven levels. You know, there's the lost thing. You know, 52 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 5: there's been a lost decade, the lost decades before sort 53 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 5: of thing. But they've they've they've have kind of got 54 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 5: themselves out of that whole. So I think the outlook 55 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 5: for Japan is a you know, somewhat constructive, especially if 56 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 5: they can get a virtuous circle of wage inflation and 57 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 5: price inflation, albeit at low levels, that that keeps a 58 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 5: positive interest rate, I mean positive interest rates. You know, 59 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 5: will will you know, our good thing in terms of 60 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 5: eternal capital, and I'll support risky, risky asset markets as well. 61 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 5: So that's kind of the idea, this sort of adjustment, 62 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 5: and Japan, you know, traditionally has been obviously a big 63 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 5: exporture of capital because there haven't been opportunities at that 64 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 5: home in Japan, and that's why you know, they've had 65 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 5: this sort of massive kind of count surface and over 66 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 5: time that's obviously you know, is correcting in a hopefully 67 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:49,119 Speaker 5: sustainable way. 68 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 6: So we see the yen, you know, weakening again here 69 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 6: today at one sixty Spart thirty five. I mean, what 70 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 6: does it take about the Japanese economy? 71 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 5: I guess, well, I think right now, I mean, this 72 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 5: issue for the for the yen is obviously that the 73 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 5: US is not you know, is sort of fighting the 74 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 5: sort of argument sort of or the FED at least 75 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 5: is fighting the argument that they don't want to sort 76 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 5: of re cutting rates right now. So that obviously puts 77 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 5: some pressure on the Japanese that the intervention of the 78 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 5: Japanese you know, it would be or have done and 79 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 5: might have to do again. It's more about sort of 80 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:22,799 Speaker 5: slowing the process of this yen finding its ultimate bottom 81 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 5: for what will be a sort of a new trading range, 82 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 5: no doubt, when they also have sustainably raised interest rates. 83 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 5: And so I wouldn't worry too much, you know, from 84 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 5: from from that perspective, as long as the moves are 85 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 5: relatively orderly. And the problem that they've got is obviously, 86 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 5: you know, they're intervening on the kind of wrong side. 87 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 5: You know, they've got limited reserves. They can't sort of 88 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,799 Speaker 5: spend you know, hundreds of billions in terms of defending 89 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 5: the currency. You know, they you know, they only have 90 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 5: a trillion or so if you like, so they'll get 91 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 5: through that pretty quickly if they're not careful. So I 92 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 5: think it's not not not a disaster at the moment. 93 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 5: It's just sort of trying to keep the moves sort 94 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 5: of you know contained before. 95 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 6: We get to the US and the US Federal Reserve. 96 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,159 Speaker 6: Talking us about what we're seeing in the UK and 97 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 6: in Europe. 98 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 5: Well, I think what you're seeing is something that you're 99 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 5: seeing in other countries as well, which is obviously the 100 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 5: tremendous dissessfaction in the sort of working population. You know, 101 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 5: the underlying so real income growth isn't really strong enough 102 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 5: to deliver the kind of living standards that people aspire to. 103 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 5: There's obviously a lot of you know, the headline numbers 104 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 5: look great, but they're flatted by relatively sort of small 105 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 5: company small groups of industries with very large companies, and 106 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 5: I think that's why you have all these pressures around 107 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 5: immigration and you have people going to the extremes and 108 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 5: you're seeing that in both the UK and France. 109 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 3: This is really critical. 110 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 2: I'm going to go to Megden Desai at London School 111 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 2: of Economics as classic Marxist revenge. 112 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 3: They're going to say it's an. 113 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 2: Exploitation of the underclass in France and Germany, the United States, 114 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 2: even in America with this debate coming up, does central 115 00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 2: banks have to adjust to the bipolar or bar bell 116 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 2: reality of their societies. 117 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a great I mean, it's a great question. 118 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 5: I mean, and this is the sort of thing that 119 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 5: you know, THEDCB has challenged been challenged within the past. 120 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 5: In the end, they set interest rates for the weakest 121 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 5: link in the system. They had to set rates, for example, 122 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 5: you know, for Italy to make sure that they could 123 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 5: sort of be part of the euro Zone. And it's 124 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 5: the same sort of questions are going to happen, you know, 125 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 5: in our country and in Europe. What does the central 126 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 5: bank do when there are a lot of people who 127 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 5: are thoroughly miserable, you know, even if you've got full employment. 128 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 2: Do you get this in before you get them Michael 129 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 2: bar and doctor Constant coming back with this nationwide, across 130 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,919 Speaker 2: the world, Dominic Constant with us with Mazuo. 131 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 3: The fact is. 132 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 2: Your own power's got to go out to Jackson Hall 133 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 2: in an election year with a strategy. 134 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 3: Do you and Steve Shudo observe a strategy in the 135 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 3: Egos building? 136 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think there is a great strategy. They're 137 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 5: sort of literally winging it from sort of one round 138 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 5: of daisy to the next. And that's a bit of 139 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 5: a sort of concern. And the risk they run, obviously 140 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 5: is they're not going to be preemptive to anything, and 141 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 5: they'll they'll end up sort of with a bigger mess 142 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 5: on their hands. I think in a way the ECB 143 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 5: has has done well to basically to show that, you know, 144 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 5: you can knock a little bit of off rates and 145 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 5: not commit to an easing cycle, although that's kind of expectation, 146 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 5: and I think in the way, in the sense that's 147 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 5: where the FED will end up going. 148 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 2: We are on ad here at surveillance across the nation 149 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 2: on YouTube worldwide. 150 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 3: Dominic Constant with missoul with. 151 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 2: Us just simply post pandemic, do we have a new 152 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 2: higher rate regime or and this is the new in 153 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 2: thing I'm seeing Dominique. We're going to have an ass 154 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 2: assymp toote. We're gonna have an asymptotic X axis where 155 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 2: we're just gonna go and out blind path weight and 156 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 2: wait and wait to get back to two percent. 157 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 3: Yeah. 158 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 5: I think we do have a higher rate regime, mainly 159 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 5: driven by potential growth being higher, and that's going to 160 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 5: be the productivity story with AI. And what's interesting about 161 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 5: that is that's more about learning by doing rather than 162 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 5: relying on very high investment rates, and that's a different 163 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 5: kind of productivity than than we saw in the late nineties. 164 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 5: I think the issue though, is in order to secure this, 165 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 5: we mustn't have too hard a landing coming out of 166 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 5: this tightening cycle. So we've talked about the FED being 167 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 5: very restrictive. We've talked about the progress on bringing inflation down. 168 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 5: The way inflation has come down is very interesting. It's 169 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 5: been really driven initially by the supply driven side, and 170 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 5: it's important that the FED doesn't kill the demand side 171 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 5: too much through there, if you like, you know, a 172 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 5: lack of patience in some sense, or sort of just 173 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 5: waiting too long, if you like, Because they think the 174 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 5: economy is absolutely fine. They need to start sort of moving, 175 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 5: I think more quickly. 176 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: So. 177 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 6: I mean there's a lot of folks in academia and 178 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 6: in the markets that think this FED is already behind 179 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 6: the curve, that the data, the real time data, suggests 180 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 6: that they should be cutting like yesterday. 181 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 5: What do you think, Yeah, I think so. I think 182 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:08,319 Speaker 5: when you look at the labor markets, you know you're 183 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 5: now at the point of a cusp in the labor 184 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 5: market where the demand for labor, let's say, reflected in vacancies, 185 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 5: has come down quite a lot, and you're actually back 186 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 5: to the beverage curve kink if you like, the old 187 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 5: beverage curve before COVID, And that's a trade off between 188 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 5: vacancies and unemployment. And if you keep having vacancies full, 189 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 5: there's a real risk that unemployment will start to rise 190 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 5: much more quickly. This is a debate that Larry Summers 191 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 5: had with Chris Swaller on the FED a couple of 192 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 5: years ago. Kind of Larry Summers got it a little 193 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 5: bit wrong, I think, but Chris, well, it was correct. 194 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 5: But now you're at the point where it doesn't matter 195 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 5: the arguments whether they were slightly wrong or not that 196 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,439 Speaker 5: the message is that unemployment might well start rising much 197 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 5: more quickly than you want it to. 198 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 2: This goes back to the insight in the last section, 199 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 2: and that there is an exploitation of capitalism where there's 200 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 2: the have nots not participating in dominie constant new productivity. 201 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 3: I mean, that's the palls are heard of the matter. 202 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's only so many people advantaged by this technology AI. 203 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 3: E I E I O and the rest of them. 204 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:15,079 Speaker 6: Exactly. So what's the market telling us here about the 205 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:16,839 Speaker 6: Fed and what they should be doing. I mean, we 206 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 6: came into the year thinking six rate cuts. Now I 207 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 6: don't know, we're one or two or something like that. 208 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 5: Well, to be fair to the Fed, I mean, although 209 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 5: they scale back what they initially expected they would do 210 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 5: this year, they've been pushing it, you know, further out. 211 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 5: So in terms of the cumulative amount of easing, they 212 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 5: haven't you know, they just there's just a timing issue. 213 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 5: But what's interesting more recently is people are now putting 214 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,959 Speaker 5: bets that if the FED is going to start easing, 215 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 5: they may end up cutting the rates a lot. So 216 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 5: we call that skew in the options market that existed 217 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 5: at the beginning of this year, it kind of went away, 218 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 5: but now it's coming back. So that just tells you 219 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 5: people are getting nervous that this delay in the FED 220 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 5: you know, to get going is going to just leave 221 00:10:57,559 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 5: them behind the curve and they're going to have to 222 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 5: be sort of running to catch up. And that's where 223 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 5: you get really worried about, you know, a harder landing. 224 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 5: We've always talked about a harder landing than necessary. You know, 225 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 5: you don't need to have a hard landing. That's why 226 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 5: just you know, taking some of the edge off this 227 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 5: restrictive policy would be helpful. 228 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 2: Where would your dot be right now? It's widely known dominant. 229 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 2: I'm not a dots fan. Yeah, yeah, where's the constant do? 230 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 3: Right? 231 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 4: Yeah? 232 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 5: Well, I would definitely be in the camp of you know, 233 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 5: cutting you know, two or three times this year and 234 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 5: then you know, and then and then sort of adding 235 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 5: another sort one hundred base point easing at least you know, 236 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 5: in the sort of first half of next year. You don't, 237 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 5: I mean, policy is restrictive. Inflation does look to me 238 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 5: is under control, and it's you know, the last thing 239 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 5: you want is for to fall below target, and there 240 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 5: is a risk that comes twenty twenty five. Forget about 241 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 5: making target. You could well be below target. And we 242 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 5: know how how kind of difficult it is to get 243 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 5: the demand side cranking back up again once you sort 244 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 5: of sort of suppress it too much. 245 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 3: Up front in this and alluded to it. 246 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 2: We've got to end our conversation with you on the 247 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 2: United Kingdom elections. I'm not going to mince words and 248 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 2: the failure of Brexit. I'm having a rugid kipling summer 249 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 2: and the idea of the imperialist all this bs. Excuse 250 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 2: my French, I can't say that on Radio Paul. All 251 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 2: this bs about Pax Britannica down in flames, Diamond Constant 252 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 2: and the failure of Brexit. 253 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 3: Well, was that experiment working well? 254 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 5: Well? I went to school with Nigel Pharansh. I was 255 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 5: in the same class as Nigel Pharas. There are only 256 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 5: six of us. We started the investment club together. His 257 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 5: father was very kind and helped us in terms of 258 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 5: doing some of those trades. So I feel very close 259 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 5: to the to the sort of Brexit experiment. But I 260 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 5: have to say it's been a complete failure and I 261 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 5: was against it, and I'm I'm a bit sad that 262 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 5: Nigel went down that road. But yes, it's it was. 263 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 5: It was that, you know, the British people were told 264 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 5: things that would happen and they didn't happen. You know, 265 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 5: they would had to vote again. I think they would 266 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 5: not vote the same way. But again it does reflect 267 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 5: an underlying discontent with the population. 268 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 2: I said in London with Gordon Brown it a local 269 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 2: labor union gathering. He invited me there and I saw 270 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:19,319 Speaker 2: the visceral nature of labor back when it worked. Can 271 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 2: secure get labor back to what Blair and Brown did 272 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 2: for the nation. 273 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 5: I hope? So, I mean, I mean, I think there's 274 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 5: a good chance he's done a lot of good things, 275 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 5: I think to the Labor Party to make it more 276 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 5: of a sort of you know, sort of mainstream type party. 277 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 5: So where the Labor has really been disappointing is they 278 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 5: just took a back seat on the whole Brexit thing. 279 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 5: And Brexit's going to hang over the UK economy for 280 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 5: a long time to come, and that's kind of the 281 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 5: sadness of it. Really. 282 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 2: You've been wonderful, Dominic Constem, thank you so much for 283 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 2: joining us for this. Our doctor constum is with Missouo 284 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 2: and look for this single best idea. Today we will 285 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 2: feature doctor Constum and of course across all of Bloomberg 286 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 2: as well. Uneconomic Sarah Wolf now with Morgan Stanley. Sarah, 287 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 2: what a joy to visit with Seth Carpenter the other day. 288 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 2: You've got a collegial debate always at Morgan Stanley, but 289 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 2: Stephen Roach invented the distinctions of argument at Morgan Stanley. 290 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 2: What's your chief argument when all of you get together 291 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 2: right now? What's the distinction that Sarah Wolf brings to 292 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 2: the US economic debate? 293 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 7: The biggest debate that I think is happening right now 294 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 7: is on the consumer, and that's where I have a 295 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 7: fairly strong view where there's a lot of focus right 296 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 7: now on some of the weaker data points coming in 297 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 7: on the consumer, and is the weakness at the lower 298 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 7: end of the income distribution a canary in the coal mine? 299 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 7: Is that what's going to pull down overall growth? In 300 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 7: our view, I think that we are seeing significant weakness 301 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 7: at the low end, probably recessionary like, but the middle 302 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 7: and high income slow down is really just a normalization 303 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 7: in my view. And the fundamentals so debt service obligations, 304 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 7: access to credit, well, the labor market, all those are 305 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 7: slowing but still holding up. And if you look at 306 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 7: the weaker data points coming in that are reflective of 307 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 7: this upper end consumer, they're just being picky or shoppers. 308 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 7: They're not showing real weakness, so they're not wanting to 309 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 7: spend on their home and as much on retail, but 310 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 7: they're still wanting to travel and spend on cruises. And 311 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 7: to me, that's just a consumer that behaves in a 312 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 7: more normal environment like what we saw pre COVID, not 313 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 7: a consumer that we had seen over the last couple 314 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 7: of years that was in the breeding period. 315 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 2: Can I suggest that the economist Paul Sweeney has led 316 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 2: on this. 317 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 3: Paul, you've been. 318 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 2: Out front of everyone of saying, I'm sorry, the restaurants 319 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 2: are packed. 320 00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 6: The restaurants are backed. So Sarah, just give us a 321 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 6: sense here of how we should think about this US consumer. 322 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 6: Here we've got, you know, basically, it still feels like 323 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 6: full employment, wages are rising. Yet boy, we see and 324 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 6: we hear a lot of concern out there still about 325 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 6: the absolute level of prices out there. How do you 326 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 6: think about the consumer these days? 327 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 7: The price level, I think is what's really impacting consumer sentiment, 328 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 7: right now wheur households still feel pretty pretty down about 329 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 7: inflation because the level of prices is still so much 330 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 7: higher than pre COVID. If you go to the grocery store, 331 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 7: you're not thankful that egg inflation is only three percent 332 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 7: when it was ten percent last year. You're saying, oh 333 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 7: my god, a dozen eggs is six dollars right now. 334 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 7: It used to be three dollars. And so the way 335 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 7: that households think is in levels. And one of the 336 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 7: things that we've been highlighting that has in particular been 337 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 7: been putting pressure on the lower end consumer is that 338 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 7: the level of prices and the level of real wages 339 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 7: are still nowhere near where they were pre COVID. So 340 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 7: if you think at real wage growth, for example, that's 341 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 7: been positive for two years, and it's been very strong 342 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:05,679 Speaker 7: because nominal wages have been outpacing inflation, but the level 343 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 7: of real wages, so household's real buying power is just 344 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 7: reaching its pre COVID level. So households really have not 345 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 7: felt that buying power for quite a long time now, 346 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 7: and so that's why we really don't think it's until 347 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 7: twenty twenty five strained upward pressure and real wage levels. 348 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 2: Well jump in here, because when I order, we use 349 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 2: a lot of eggs at listen. Have you have you 350 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 2: eaten an egg in the last five years? 351 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 8: Eight eggs every day? 352 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 2: You never know what her I get the thing, you know, 353 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 2: you know, it's some fancy egg thing from whole paycheck. 354 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:39,880 Speaker 3: And I look at it and I'm looking at. 355 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 2: These little eggs and I'm going six bucks exactly. 356 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 6: So, Sarah, what can what can federal reserve policy even 357 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 6: due to this whole picture that we're talking about for 358 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,440 Speaker 6: the consumer, at the end of the day, not much 359 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 6: can they. 360 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,640 Speaker 7: There's not that much they could do. The reality is 361 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 7: is that tight monetary policy is disproported affecting the lower 362 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 7: end of the income distribution. They're the ones that feel 363 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 7: higher interest rates immediately because they don't have all this 364 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,639 Speaker 7: fixed rate debt, they don't have all this wealth. You know, 365 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 7: they're feeling their net interest payments rising more significantly, their 366 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 7: access to credit is more limited. When you ask the 367 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 7: FED about this, they'll say that the best thing that 368 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 7: they could do for the consumer and income inequality is 369 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 7: to bring down inflation. But unfortunately you have to put 370 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 7: more pressure on the lower income household in order to 371 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 7: get there. So it's a bit of a conundrum for the. 372 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 3: FAT I'll give you conundrum. I'm going to get you 373 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 3: in trouble now with Zetner and Carpenter. 374 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,880 Speaker 2: Okay, Sarah, listen to me carefully based on what you 375 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 2: just said, Like in eight other countries, on November fifth, 376 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 2: America goes in and the broad middle class and lower 377 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,360 Speaker 2: class vote for one of the candidates. 378 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 3: He's going to put your own power out on the street. 379 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 2: Is there any history of any central bank, particularly in America, 380 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 2: actually listening to the people that don't hold the financial assets. 381 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 7: It's a tricky question, and you are putting me on 382 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 7: the spot there. I think the FMC is going to 383 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,719 Speaker 7: be do the best to just stick to their mandate, 384 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 7: and so they need to just look at inflation, they 385 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 7: need to look at maximum employment, and they're going to 386 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 7: try to tune out the noise around around the politics. 387 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 7: And so we don't think that the election should really 388 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 7: be impacting what the Fed's doing. I think Jerome Pewell 389 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 7: wants to end his tenure on a note with a 390 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 7: really good reputation, and so they're just going to be 391 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 7: focused on the incoming data going into the election, not 392 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 7: all the other noise and what sentiment is showing. I 393 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 7: also think that there's been this ship to look much 394 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 7: more closely at the hard data than the soft data, 395 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 7: because the soft data has been so influenced by what's 396 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 7: happening politically in the US and more globally with geopolitics 397 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 7: as well. 398 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 3: Look, just emailed me. 399 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 6: The interview Sarah talk to us about economic growth. 400 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 3: Here. 401 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 6: What's the Morgan Stanley call for GDP this year next year? 402 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, we have two percent GDP growth this year, lower 403 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 7: next year. That's coming down from three percent last year. 404 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 7: So we do have this gradual slowing. In particular, I 405 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 7: mean we are tracking a pretty notable slowdown in private 406 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 7: final domestic demand. It was about three percent in the 407 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 7: first quarter. We have just over two percent right now. 408 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 7: The big question we get is, you know, how much 409 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 7: slow down is in line with our call versus how 410 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 7: much slow down is leading to an even greater slow 411 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 7: down than what's expected. And what I'll say is when 412 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 7: you look at the data, and if you look at 413 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 7: the weaker data points, they're the ones that are the 414 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 7: intra sensitive components of the economy, the ones that should 415 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 7: be very weak, so retail sales, so anything durable goods 416 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 7: related the housing market, whereas the other parts of the 417 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 7: economy that you know, services for example, those are holding 418 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 7: up much better, and so we don't think that this 419 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 7: weakness is going to spiral out of control. The last 420 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 7: thing I'll say is that we still have this immigration 421 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 7: story that's propping up growth. We do see this as 422 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 7: a downside risk to growth in twenty twenty five after 423 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 7: the election, because there's much stricter immigration policy in the pipeline. 424 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 3: Brilliant, Sarah, Well, thank you so much, Morgan Stanley. I 425 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 3: hope she'll come back. 426 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 2: Watching Atlanta is Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lines a host 427 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 2: of balance of power. Mister Matthew fully focused on seeing 428 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 2: it's presidential debate. 429 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 3: Joe, it's being simulcassed by everyone. 430 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 4: Let's just begin with Matthew. 431 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 3: One oh one. 432 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 4: Why is this debate so important? 433 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: Well, look, I think because it's the first in this case, 434 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: it's the first for these two in four years. And 435 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: there was clearly an effort here or a thought by 436 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: the Biden campaign that we do this early to call 437 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's bluff on whether he even wanted to debate. 438 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: And by the way, who knows if everyone shows up still, 439 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: I'll believe it when I see it. But also to 440 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: get to the age issue, Tom, they want to knock 441 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: this thing down before we get into the throes of conventions. 442 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 4: I look, Joe at where we are. 443 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 2: We spend a lot of time talking about Camp David 444 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 2: and Biden rehearsal. 445 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,439 Speaker 4: Is there Trump rehearsal. 446 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: There's not, And that's become a big part of the storyline. 447 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 1: I'm not sure it matters. We're talking about Donald Trump. 448 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 1: You can tell me what you think about this, because 449 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: right now Joe Biden's getting up. He's probably working with 450 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 1: the trainer. He's in a room with two podiums and 451 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,640 Speaker 1: his most trusted advisors. They're doing mock debates, what they 452 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 1: call murder boards. And that's part of the process of 453 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 1: being ready for something like this where Donald Trump is 454 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: kind of riffing with his advisors. He's showing up at 455 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 1: fundraisers this week, and that's the way that he's been 456 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: able to succeed. 457 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 9: I don't know if one's better than the other. 458 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 1: If he talked to Rick Davis, or Republican strategist who's 459 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: prepared a lot of candidates for these debates, he says, 460 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 1: you have to go through the process, even being in 461 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,679 Speaker 1: a room that duplicates the room you'll be in in 462 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: Atlanta on Thursday night with. 463 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 2: The unique rules, and we did a lot yesterday Joe 464 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 2: and the rules of David Gerrow, who will. 465 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 4: Be in Atlanta. Yeah, but with the unique rules. 466 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 2: My amateur take is they will allude to like a 467 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 2: theme like inflation, and both of these candidates, or at 468 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 2: least one will have wrote written answers. 469 00:22:59,160 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 4: Am I wrong? 470 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 1: Right? 471 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 9: That's what it feels like. Now. 472 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: That doesn't mean Donald Trump won't be able to yell 473 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 1: in the background on Joe Biden's mike or vice versa. 474 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 9: But Tom, I'm allowing for a possibility that no one's 475 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 9: talking about here. 476 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: What happens after we fan the flames and raise the 477 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: bar on this thing and make it the most important 478 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: event of the campaign. 479 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 9: What happens if they both show up and they're boring? 480 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 3: Well, that's it's bad radio. I'll start with that, Yes, 481 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 3: right right now. 482 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 2: I mean, what an odd campaign, Joe Matthew, You've done 483 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 2: so much of this, particularly through the knockdown prism of 484 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 2: Massachusetts politics. 485 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 4: What an odd debate? 486 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: Is it? 487 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 3: Is it? 488 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 2: Do you just presume it's one debate, it's one and 489 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 2: done for these two candidates. 490 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,719 Speaker 1: Well, ABC dos would beg to differ because they think 491 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: there's a deal on another one in September, and I 492 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 1: suspect these candidates are going to want a debate again 493 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 1: as we get closer, once we get through primaries, we 494 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: get in the fall, people pay attention again. Look, there 495 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: are questions about whether anybody's gonna watch this on Bloomberg 496 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,679 Speaker 1: or CNN or anywhere else in real time, and specifically 497 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,399 Speaker 1: the young people Joe Biden wants to talk to on 498 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 1: Thursday night. What happens when the entire debate is digested 499 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,719 Speaker 1: or consumed in clips on Twitter and your doom scroll 500 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: on Friday morning. That means everyone needs to seek a 501 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 1: viral moment. So it probably won't be boring, but it 502 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: could get to be silly, and that's a risk for both. 503 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 2: The balance of power is about so much more than 504 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 2: just the presidential ballet. I thought the Tuesday primary votes 505 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 2: were really illuminating. Do they suggest you do that this 506 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,879 Speaker 2: is finally a signal for the president of the United 507 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 2: States to do what Reagan did years ago and move 508 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 2: to the middle. 509 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 9: It's a really great question. 510 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,959 Speaker 1: Jamal Bowman might say, yes, he had fifteen million dollars 511 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 1: in a PAC money pitted against him, But I don't know. 512 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: You have to look at these races individually. We all 513 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 1: are charged with trying to find a trend. We love 514 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 1: a trend story. But if you look at this case 515 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: specifically in New York, you know Jerry Nadler, the Democrat 516 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: from Manhattan, said it wasn't necessary for APAC to spend 517 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: all this. He was simply out of step with his district. 518 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,199 Speaker 1: And there's something to be said there. You have to 519 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: know who brought you. He was talking about the South 520 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: Bronx and a rally on Saturday night, and we both 521 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 1: know that's not even in his districts. 522 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 2: What about the districts The suburbs of Philadelphia are out 523 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 2: to Pittsburgh. Where the struggles of western Pennsylvania. I mean 524 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 2: there's a swing state. You're following this with Kaylee Lynes 525 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 2: each and every day. How does Pennsylvania view this debate? 526 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,440 Speaker 1: Great questions. I'm not sure either candidate knows. 527 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 9: Joe Biden home if. 528 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 4: I ever been, have I ever been? On balance of power? 529 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 4: I'm asking, great. 530 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 9: You're you're doing the surveillance nap. 531 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 4: By I'm doing exactly Joe, how did you know that? 532 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 9: Anyway to get you on the show. 533 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 4: Let's start street to one, Joe Matthew. How does Pennsylvania 534 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,479 Speaker 4: view this debate? 535 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,919 Speaker 1: I don't know if Pennsylvania cares. What are they going 536 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: to talk about that's going to move the needle? On 537 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,439 Speaker 1: Thursday night, They're trying to speak to eight percent in 538 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,399 Speaker 1: the mushy middle, Tom, and they don't like to be 539 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 1: called that. They don't like to be called low information voters. 540 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 1: But it's really early. People were at a cookout this 541 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,880 Speaker 1: weekend getting ready for the fourth of July. And I'm 542 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: not sure that we should assume that everybody in Pennsylvania 543 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: is plugged into this inflation. 544 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,400 Speaker 9: Sure, Joe, do you have a plan? Donald Trump? 545 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: Are you gonna make it worse if you extend the 546 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: tax cuts? I think that might be the extent to 547 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 1: which a lot of folks in Pennsylvania are watching on things. 548 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 2: Do you predict the tax cuts or tax keeps will 549 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 2: be a big theme? 550 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 9: I do, because that's a big one for Donald Trump. 551 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: Tom Kevin Brady's gonna come in and talk to us 552 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 1: in STUDI a little bit later on Balance of Power, 553 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,120 Speaker 1: the former Chair Republican Chair of the Ways and Means Committee. 554 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: His full time job right now is getting this done. 555 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 1: The lobbying effort has begun. A fortune will be spent 556 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 1: to make these tax cuts permanent next year. 557 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 2: The CATI Lines show with Joe Matthew who look for 558 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 2: That's her Power, with David Gurry in Atlanta. 559 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 3: The front page is a Lisa Matteo show. There's like 560 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 3: a lot of choice. 561 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 8: There is, and this is that, you know, the hot 562 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:06,719 Speaker 8: button topic in New York congestion pricing drivers. Some drivers 563 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 8: are against it. But here's the thing. There's a report 564 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 8: out that's saying it could put about one hundred thousand 565 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 8: jobs at risk. Here's the reason why. Okay, it's from 566 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 8: watchdog group Reinvent al Maney. So basically it's saying, if 567 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 8: we don't get the funding that was expected from this plan, 568 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 8: thousands of high paying jobs in New York could be lost. 569 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 8: We're talking about these jobs that are created by private 570 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,919 Speaker 8: companies that work with the MTA to build, like the trains, 571 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 8: the buses, install those new propulsion systems. They average about 572 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 8: one hundred thousand per year. That's our average salary. The 573 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 8: results were based on this analysis of MTA spending data 574 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 8: from partnership from New York. But it just shows what 575 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 8: the other side of it, you know, the loss of 576 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,359 Speaker 8: jobs that could happen if this doesn't go through it 577 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 8: for what. 578 00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 2: You guys have read, Is it just a question of 579 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 2: the fifteen dollars statistic and. 580 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 3: They just got to come back with a lower number. 581 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 3: I don't know. 582 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 6: I don't know. I just think, you know, I think 583 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 6: it quote Unos, what works in London? 584 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 3: Oh No, it works in London and Stockton, no question. 585 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 6: And they had it for more than I would say 586 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 6: a decade or so in London. 587 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,880 Speaker 3: My answer is New York is not London. Yeah. 588 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 8: Do they charge as much? 589 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 6: I don't know. 590 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's so material it is. 591 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,919 Speaker 2: I what a conundrum I guess is how he put it. 592 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 8: It's a tough one, especially for the. 593 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 6: Jersey John Tucker's Oh yeah, puts on them reporter. 594 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 3: Next, what do you got? 595 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 6: What else? 596 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 4: Oh? 597 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 8: Big day today for Delta. They're opening that new luxury 598 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 8: lounge at JFK Terminal four forty thousand square feet If 599 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 8: it's about five hundred and thirteen people and there or 600 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 8: over five hundred people. But they're hoping it's going to 601 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 8: give some competition to like the Emirates, the global carriers 602 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,120 Speaker 8: instead of just you know, United and American at you have. 603 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 8: Here's the thing. The only ones who can get in 604 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 8: are those that have same day business or first class 605 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 8: boarding passes on Delta or their their partners. It's only 606 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 8: open from four thirty am to eleven pm, so those 607 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 8: overnight blers won't be able to go. But you got 608 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 8: to see the pictures on the terminal for this Bloomberg article. 609 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 8: I mean sit down restaurants, bakery, market, wellness spot, this 610 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 8: thing downproof, work pods, valet services. 611 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 6: I'm not a lounge guy. 612 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 3: I used to be in Heathrow. Full disclosure. 613 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 2: I can never go to the lounges in London. I 614 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 2: go to the Royal Family tea place, Fortenham and Mason. 615 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 2: I go to Fortnham and Mason in order the same thing, 616 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 2: and Retto goes, what did you do? 617 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 6: How many people did you have with this thing? I 618 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 6: do do the lounges when I'm in Europe, but I 619 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 6: don't know him in the US at all. 620 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 8: No, Okay, last time I did, I. 621 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 3: Was standing room only. It's terrible. 622 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 8: Well, that's what the problem is that they're too crowded. 623 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 8: But this that's why this one is forty I mean 624 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 8: you can fit over five hundred people in it. 625 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 2: Er can we get at bastion On the CEO of Delta, 626 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 2: he's done a great job on this and you know 627 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 2: he really survived COVID, And let's try to get at 628 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 2: bastion on so we can do. 629 00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 3: A remote from the lounge the bakery at the lounge next. 630 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 8: It looks really nice. Okay. This one is from Businessesider. 631 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,040 Speaker 8: So a lot of companies globally are trying to shorten 632 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 8: the work week, but Greece is actually going in the 633 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 8: opposite direction. They want to increase it to six days 634 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 8: a week, so it starts Monday. This is voluntary for companies, 635 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 8: but six days or forty eight hour work weeks certain 636 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 8: industries like retail, agriculture, service sectors, and they'll get paid 637 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 8: for it. So you have the workers receiving forty percent 638 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 8: more pay for those extra hours, one hundred and fifteen 639 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 8: percent more pay if they do it for a holiday. 640 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 3: Well that's the thing they're getting paid. 641 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 6: They're getting paid. 642 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 8: Yeah, they're getting. 643 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 6: Paid for. 644 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 3: Greeks. 645 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 8: So you can you can split it and you can 646 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 8: work either two hours extra day or you can work 647 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 8: that full you know, sixth day. So they have the option, 648 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:44,880 Speaker 8: but some people were against it. There was a lot 649 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 8: of backlash from trade unions for it. But but it 650 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 8: there's a lot of pressure. 651 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 6: Traditional work week puts a lot of pressure on the 652 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 6: shout out. 653 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 2: I've had a Greek moment here at the Javid Center 654 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 2: in New York this summer fancy food show, which is 655 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 2: like sixty years old, and missus Keano was a whole 656 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 2: bunch of people of the Greek persuasion. I was getting 657 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,400 Speaker 2: lectured last night, and I think it's Ciro's tomato paste. 658 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 2: There's only one tomato paste. You have to have this 659 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 2: Greek tomato gaste because they work six days a week 660 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 2: at the factory making this tomato. 661 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:16,239 Speaker 3: I don't know. 662 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 8: So now, when are you booking the trip to Greece? 663 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 3: I seeking the. 664 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 2: Trip to Grease to go to fifty eighth Street, Maria Lois. 665 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 2: Maybe I'll darken the noord to restaurant there you go. 666 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 2: You know we'll have to see. But yeah, we are. 667 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 2: I've never been to Greece. 668 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 3: And I can remember. 669 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 8: I know we've been wanted. 670 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 3: To do Brama went to Crete which was great. 671 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 6: Well, she's yeah, glout this. 672 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 8: Actually we were just talking about this with Brian Weezer. 673 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 8: New York Times reportedly moving some of their podcasts behind 674 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 8: a paywall. This is according to the Wall Street Journal, 675 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 8: but you heard what Brian Weather had to say about it. 676 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 8: But they're looking for for certain revenue beyond just ads, 677 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 8: so we'll see if this works. This is just all 678 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 8: in talks. This is according to the journal. So they 679 00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 8: want to make certain episodes of their top rated pod 680 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 8: cast only available to subscribers. Maybe making those archived podcasts 681 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 8: only available to subscribers, so certain little perks, but it 682 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 8: could expand, you know, they could expand that paywall to 683 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 8: the goal eventually making most Ever. 684 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 2: I talked to one of the younger generations with real 685 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,480 Speaker 2: experience on this, with some of the people that help 686 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg podcast, and she said, the only thing 687 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 2: that's going to work our sponsors like we have cone Resnik, 688 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 2: Interactive Brokers and the others BN y Melon, where they're 689 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 2: really committed to the product. All the rest of the 690 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 2: gimmicks won't raise enough revenue. But I'm really proud of 691 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 2: our podcast ads. I mean, people say there's too many ads. 692 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 2: But that's what it takes to get, you know, Lisa 693 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:43,840 Speaker 2: matteale you. 694 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 6: A bit for free. New York Science has done a 695 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,680 Speaker 6: wonderful job with their paywall. I mean, you could say 696 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 6: in terms of the newspapers globally, the New York Times, 697 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 6: the Wall Street Journal, the FT, I mean a very 698 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 6: handful of publications they be able to really thrive with 699 00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:57,280 Speaker 6: a paywall. 700 00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 2: Here Lisa Mateo with our newspapers today in the front 701 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 2: pages and the headlines as well. This is the Bloomberg 702 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 2: Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 703 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 704 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 705 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,320 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 706 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 707 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 708 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,120 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg 709 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 4: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.