1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: So honored, Claudia, some I'm with us with New Century Advises. Claudia, 7 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 2: I don't think people know who you are. You become 8 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: such a fixture, such a giant of American academics. Let's 9 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: start with the complete intimidation of walking in the door 10 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,599 Speaker 2: at Michigan one day and being greeted by the giants 11 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 2: of inflation study Matthew Shapiro and Miles Spencer Kimball. What 12 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 2: was it like working for those two academic beasts on inflation. 13 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 3: So it is an absolute privilege to work with both 14 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 3: Matthew and Miles, and I keep there are lessons that 15 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 3: I learned from them that keep replaying in my head 16 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,559 Speaker 3: even now, Like as we think about these big policy questions, 17 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 3: what kind of happened to the economy? Matthew is known 18 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,119 Speaker 3: for saying all the time, it's an empirical question, right, 19 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 3: Like we can have all the theory and we need that. 20 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 3: But you've got to go look at the data, and 21 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 3: you've got to look really carefully at it to figure 22 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:21,400 Speaker 3: out what's going to happen. 23 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 2: You were right, your initial acclaim was a cute analysis 24 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: of the American consumer. Forget about the distractions Musk, Trump, 25 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 2: red Sox, Yankees, things that matter, Claudia, sum, what is 26 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 2: the state of the American consumer? 27 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 3: The state of the American consumer is still good. I mean, 28 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 3: I have a long standing mantra of like, don't set 29 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 3: against the American consumer right when they can spend when 30 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 3: they can, like this keeps going now, I think we 31 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 3: can run into some constraints. This year goes on right 32 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 3: as income slows down, If the jobs aren't as plentiful, 33 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 3: then the consumer does you know, they are likely to 34 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 3: pull back some. But it just we're still in a 35 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 3: place that's you know, relatively solid. But it's more about 36 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 3: where we're headed right now. 37 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 4: So, Claudia, today, when we get this job's at data here, 38 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 4: We've seen some data this week, whether it's jolts or 39 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 4: ADP or claims, kind of suggest that the labor market's softening. 40 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 4: But I don't know, it doesn't feel like it's breaking 41 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 4: here there's any real risk, but that may change in 42 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 4: three minutes. But how do you kind of you just 43 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 4: broadly speaking, in this US labor market. 44 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: So I think it's important to remember that when we 45 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 3: have big shocks in the economy, like you know, the 46 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 3: policy changes, the terrors immigration that you know, like the 47 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 3: labor market is not necessarily the first place we see 48 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 3: at hits. I mean we remember in most recessions, the 49 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 3: out't clanment rate peaks after the recession is over right, 50 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 3: it takes time to work its way through. So at 51 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: this point we're looking for subtle signs of softening start 52 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 3: you know, hours of reduced part time work like, and 53 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 3: that actually tells us about potentially much bigger weakening as 54 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 3: we go, you know, on insator this year. So this 55 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,399 Speaker 3: isn't the first place to see it. And frankly, other 56 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 3: places we would look like business investment or even in 57 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 3: the prices. We're just starting to see the hints of 58 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 3: the policy. 59 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 2: So it's coming, Claudie, I want to get this in 60 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 2: before the Jazz report. The standard error, the noise around 61 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 2: this report. Now with immigration changing, is it getting harder 62 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 2: and harder to guess the numbers or the ten or 63 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 2: of the two reports. 64 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 3: Well, this a reality. I mean, immigration is going to 65 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 3: be an issue. I mean, I think at this point, 66 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 3: you know, the willingness of people who are in the 67 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 3: United States, is immigrants to participate in our surveys has 68 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 3: got to be slipping. And in general, we have seen 69 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 3: a real distrust of people participating in surveys or maybe 70 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 3: just not taking the time to participate in surveys if 71 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 3: we don't have as much information. It's not that there's 72 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 3: necessarily going to be a bias in the report. It's 73 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 3: just they're going to be noisier. And we know how much. 74 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 3: Every first Friday of the month we study the exact number. 75 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 3: And if they get noisier, we're going to get bounced 76 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 3: around a lot more in terms of like what's actually happening. 77 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 2: Claudia sym has said for eighteen months, don't underestimate an 78 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 2: overused word, a resilient American economic experiment. That's what we 79 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 2: see within the tar For Claudia, this is a resilient 80 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 2: labor economy. 81 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 3: Yes, I would agree, though I would also you know, 82 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 3: reinforce that the effects of the tariffs are just at 83 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 3: the right at the beginning. You know, we haven't seen 84 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 3: the price increases widespread. We haven't seen it. So this 85 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 3: is a this is a good place, This is the 86 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 3: labor market's in a good place. 87 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 2: But it is not. 88 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 3: This is not the labor market to say twenty twenty 89 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 3: two that was firing on all cylinders and then was 90 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 3: being hit with rate increases and high inflation. So you know, 91 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 3: I think that's encouraging. It is that today's numbers are 92 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 3: very consistent with a softening, not even you know, the 93 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 3: other the ekening, but this is not We're not done yet, 94 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 3: but this is a good is. 95 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 4: A good day, Claudia. How do you think the Federal 96 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 4: Reserve FED? Shairman J. 97 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 5: Powell? 98 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 4: How do you think the Fed is going to look 99 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 4: at these numbers? 100 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 3: It takes a little bit of pressure off them because 101 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 3: again they're what they're waiting to see, and what's going 102 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 3: to be important for their decision is to see how 103 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 3: the Terraff induced inflation play out, Like they really need 104 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 3: some kind of confirmation that that inflation will be temporary. 105 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 3: And again we're just starting to see those prices increases 106 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: come in, so it's going to be months before we 107 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 3: see any sign even monthly data of it's trying to 108 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 3: pull back, and it also gives time for them to see, 109 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 3: you know, that's a kind of good tear policy around, 110 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 3: like a low tear policy. So it just gives them 111 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 3: some breathing space for I think, what was going to 112 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 3: be there like they're thinking anyways, is I got to 113 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 3: see this inflation under control. 114 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 5: Claudia, Thank you so much. 115 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 2: Claudia Sam with this New Century Advisor is really good 116 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 2: to have her on today or the Constructive Report again 117 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 2: her research note get that from New Century Advisors. We 118 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 2: protect the copyright of all of our guests. Features up 119 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 2: forty down, features up to forty five. The vix Quiescent 120 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 2: goes from night what were you twenty, Paul? 121 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 6: We were twenty, like back on the Red Sox were 122 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 6: winning right exactly back when Amy was Silverman was booking 123 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 6: her Taylor Swift tickets right now seventeen point four to 124 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 6: nine on the VICSA constructive take eels up a. 125 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 2: Little bit is well, we looked at bonds with priam Isser. 126 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: We have Claudia Sam here acclaimed on American economics and 127 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 2: now joining us Amy was Silverman RBC Capital Markets, here 128 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 2: to dovetail in equities, the derivative space, what does it 129 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 2: say about expectations? The game of it within the algebra 130 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 2: the quantitative finance is to seek out not an extrapolation, 131 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 2: but to just what's the expectation. Do you have a 132 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 2: clue what the expectation is of equity markets by labor day? 133 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting because coming into this payrolls it was 134 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 7: quite benign. So when you looked at the pricing ahead 135 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 7: of NFP, there wasn't a bet there. Essentially, there wasn't 136 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 7: a bet that at the money straddle, Tom was coming in, 137 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 7: you know, very complacent under the normal standard deviation, and 138 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 7: you know, I think probably given what the market reaction is, 139 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 7: it'll probably end up being correct. Now that changes out 140 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 7: to September, so our term structure, those future expectations of 141 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 7: volatility are a lot higher, and it's essentially saying to me, 142 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 7: we've can kicked a lot of things. We're in the 143 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 7: middle of these reprieves. That doesn't mean there isn't going 144 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 7: to be stuff going on, It's just going to happen later. 145 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 4: Are your clients are they looking to buy protection here, 146 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 4: whether it's just tweet protection, I don't know what you 147 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 4: guys call it, but the volatility just feels like I 148 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 4: can't predict it at all. Is there something you can 149 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 4: provide for them on the protection side? 150 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 7: Well, look, I know Tom likes the Greeks a lot, 151 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 7: but my bad wall joke is there's another Greek tweet us. 152 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 7: So just the sensitivity of implied volatility to Donald Trump's 153 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 7: tweets and you know, my kids will cringe, but look, 154 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 7: it's a real thing. It really creates volatility potfoles. All 155 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 7: you need to do is look to last night and 156 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 7: you can see that idiosyncratic risk in Tesla. You can 157 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 7: see it in the macro risk and that does not 158 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 7: go away. I only think that is something that investors 159 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 7: have to contend with. And the one thing I'll say is, look, 160 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 7: there is hedging going on, there is demand for that. 161 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 7: It's in those further tenors. Because once we roll off 162 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 7: these reprieves, we're still going to have to figure out 163 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 7: what we do in terms of the market and the 164 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 7: distribution of fat tails that we see. 165 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 4: Is it more expensive today to buy protection in the 166 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 4: options in futures and options markets than it was a 167 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 4: year ago. 168 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,559 Speaker 7: So look, here's what I'll say a little bit yes, 169 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 7: But when you kind of look to let's go back 170 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 7: to Liberation Day, how expensive things have gotten. We've rolled 171 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,839 Speaker 7: off significantly, and I would argue that there has been 172 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 7: a big change between last year and this year in 173 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 7: terms of how real people think. Those tariff guardrails have 174 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:12,719 Speaker 7: been removed. And so if I had to make a 175 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 7: quick advertising for hedging, I would say it's relatively inexpensive 176 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 7: considering the tales that could occur if we don't get 177 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 7: any good resolutions. 178 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 5: We welcome all of you on your commune to cross 179 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 5: the nation. 180 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 2: A jobs report benevolence some say front run by the 181 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 2: president with a tweet out, an optimistic tweet out before 182 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 2: the jobs report. 183 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 5: Thank you Jim Bianco for. 184 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 2: That perspective from Chicago. That's not my perspective, folks. That 185 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 2: was James Bianco's tweet that was out on linking the 186 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 2: President's tweet into this benevolent tone. Futures up forty five 187 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 2: ivicts seventeen point thirty seven to have priam iSER with this, 188 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 2: Claudia Sama now Amy wo Silverman had a deriv to 189 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 2: strategy RBC Capital Markets. Christina Campmanumok, this is the way 190 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 2: we roll in good conversation for you on YouTube, Ammy Silverman, 191 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 2: These forget about the moonshe out of Microsoft, which I 192 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 2: think has been way underreported. 193 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 5: Here in Q two. 194 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 2: The absolute arc is retails on board, retails in the market, 195 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 2: and institution CTAs all the other fancy phrases you have 196 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 2: in your world are running around their heads cut off. 197 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 2: What's a company like in institutional conversations right now? 198 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 7: Look, if you had to pit retail against institutional, I 199 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 7: would say they probably won round one in terms of 200 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 7: they didn't degross, they didn't de risk, they were steadily 201 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,599 Speaker 7: buying that dip and they have been rewarded. 202 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 2: Now. 203 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 7: It's just different, right because when you're an institutional investor, 204 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 7: you've got to meet that benchmark for quarter end, for 205 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 7: a year end. You don't have that simper long horizon. 206 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 7: It's a different game. It's not fair, and that's why 207 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 7: I think that demand for longer term hedging comes into play. 208 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 7: But look, Tom, I think there's a real risk of 209 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 7: a right tail crash. That has been true since post COVID. 210 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 5: What does that mean. That's jargon. 211 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 7: It just means this idea that if mag seven rips, 212 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 7: if you have that benchmark concentration and it runs away 213 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 7: from you as an institutional master, you have to catch up. 214 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 7: You have to. 215 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 2: Okay the Poe The reason I set all this up, folks, 216 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 2: because she's so damn good at this. 217 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 8: The answer is, Paul, you know you lived it. June thirty. 218 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 8: June is busted out all over. We're twenty five days 219 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 8: away from our lawn only by side and all the 220 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 8: way over to rock and leverage. CTAs have to show 221 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 8: their cards. What's a frenzy going to be on the 222 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 8: path to June thirty end a quarter? 223 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 7: So I'd watch some signals in the market here. I 224 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 7: would watch for what that call option demand is. If 225 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 7: it starts to outweigh the put option demand either in 226 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 7: your meg seven names and your SMP and your cues, 227 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 7: that starts this right tail chase, which we've seen over 228 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 7: and over again since the post COVID period. You saw 229 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 7: it after that low in libration day, right, everyone who 230 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 7: degrows had to jump in the pool really quickly. We 231 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 7: have found when we back tested over time, when that 232 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 7: momentum starts, it takes a while for it to fade, 233 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 7: and those dynamics are really real. 234 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 4: On balance. Are your clients are they net bullish or 235 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 4: kind of a net bearish, or are they just trying 236 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 4: to just headguway all the risks they can. 237 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 7: I would say, if I had to, you know, gun 238 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 7: to my head, I would say, they're still very. 239 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 1: Cautious, okay. 240 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 7: And that's why I called it a right tail in 241 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 7: the sense that it's a hedge to the upside. 242 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 6: Right. 243 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 7: When we look into the options market, we actually see 244 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 7: a lot of call buying and FXI the China ETF, 245 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 7: and EEM the merging market's ETF. I don't think that's 246 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 7: expressing a super bullish view on China. It's the worry 247 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 7: that if we suddenly get a resolution over the weekend, 248 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 7: that tweet a bomb turns on again. They have to 249 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 7: go into that chase. They have that benchmark concentration. 250 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 2: Legendary academics at New York University. One final question here, 251 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 2: we're trying to get Christina KATMANI up here in a 252 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 2: moment incredibly important and I go to NYU for this, 253 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 2: the idea that you have to rehadge out if we 254 00:12:57,520 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 2: get a right tail shift and all of a sudden, 255 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 2: your world has to catch up to June thirty and 256 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 2: beyond we get you have to rehedge out there. What's 257 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 2: it doesn't that create almost a circuitous momentum of bye 258 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 2: bye bye. Isn't that the heart of the matter. 259 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, people like to call it the gamma hammer, 260 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 7: and I have. 261 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 8: That gamma hammer open for Pantera. 262 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 7: Yes, I do continue, And you know, I think that 263 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 7: to some degree, this this risk of rerolling that strikes 264 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 7: is something investors always contend with. But I think that's 265 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 7: why we've seen duration trinkage, Tom. I think that's why 266 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 7: we've seen more zero date X pre trading because of 267 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 7: these data points kind of creating the cycle. You can't 268 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 7: get ahead. 269 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 5: Of Amy with Silverman. Thank you, thank you, thank you 270 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 5: so much. 271 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 2: She's the RBC Capital Markets and we thank her for 272 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 2: jobs day perspective. She's from Villanova University, potentially working at 273 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 2: the Vatican. 274 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 5: Here we'll see this straighten out. 275 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 2: Their bond portfolio or sitting on the Knicks bench the 276 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,199 Speaker 2: power of Villaines. 277 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 5: The coach exits. 278 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think she went a head coach 279 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 2: Christina cat Manny with this new assistant coach for the 280 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 2: New York next here in Global Debt and Senior portrait. 281 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 2: If you were seriously, if you're advising with the celebration 282 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 2: of Pope Leo, the fourteenth. If you're advising the Vatican 283 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 2: right now about clip the coupon, I'm serious, clip the 284 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 2: coupon or total return short term for Pope Leo's ten years, 285 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 2: let's bring it into three years. Is it a total 286 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 2: return space or a coupon space. 287 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 9: I mean it's a little bit of both. 288 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 7: Right. 289 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 9: I think we're no longer. We're no longer in a 290 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 9: world where global that global debt everywhere is at zero 291 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 9: and rates are at zero and you have to be 292 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 9: in tens in the US to get two percent, right, 293 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 9: Like you can have front end paper in the US, 294 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 9: whether that's high grad high quality corporates, two to five years, 295 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 9: whether it's bills, whether it's treasuries, and having some portfolio 296 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 9: if that makes sense, and same thing. Look at rest 297 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 9: of the world, there's yield to be had. 298 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 5: Yeah. 299 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 4: I mean again, your title is Global Debt Senior portfolio manager. 300 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 4: Where outside the US, you guys see opportunities. 301 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 5: Yeah. 302 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 9: So when we look at it again, our general preference 303 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 9: has been to own duration in the front end of 304 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 9: the curve globally, so call it in that two to 305 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 9: five year sector. And I think certainly through April, as 306 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 9: we have had all of this uncertainty and tumult and 307 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 9: Liberation Day, and what's going on with tariffs and kind 308 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 9: of the fiscal concerns, and these questions of oh, like 309 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 9: the ten years not acting as kind of that anchor. 310 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 9: What has five year duration in Europe has? So I 311 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 9: think again front end and then to be invested out 312 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 9: the curve. It's a question of where do you get 313 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 9: enough yield, and I think they're in the long end 314 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 9: of Japan. You've seen some steepness. There's a few places. 315 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 2: The President's tweet, a jobs report, Navarro's comments on a 316 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 2: Chinese meeting. In seven days, kat Manny lifts the market 317 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 2: up forty five, up fifty on futures and the yield space, 318 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 2: Paul moves, we're up to three basis points and now 319 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 2: the ten year yield four point four or five percent, 320 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 2: we're up six basis points, five basis points out the. 321 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 5: Curve, yep move into markets. Credit risk. 322 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 4: How much credit risk are you guys come to taking 323 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 4: these days? 324 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 9: So we have some but again, when we look across 325 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 9: our three levers that we can pull FX, rates and credit, 326 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 9: it's probably our least favorite because credit spreads are still 327 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 9: tight historically, and look we're not at a point that 328 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 9: we're very concerned about imminent recession, severe recession. We're not 329 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 9: at so, and we don't have like an immediate funding 330 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 9: wall for corporations, but level spreads are tight. So again 331 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 9: this kind of two to five year short paper high quality, 332 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 9: there's value there. Otherwise, I think all of these economic 333 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 9: kind of driving forces, FX is the clearest channel of 334 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 9: where they impact it. So that's kind of probably our 335 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 9: favorite lever. And then this is a bit in the middle. 336 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 4: Well, you mentioned FX. I mean the dollar's been just 337 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 4: hasn't had any rebound like other risks of US stocks 338 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 4: have rebounded, the dollars not. What is that, oh you guys? 339 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 4: Or hows it informed your bond? 340 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 5: Yeah? 341 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 3: Suction? 342 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 9: So I think it really is a broader story. And 343 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 9: the question is is this a real regime shift for 344 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 9: the dollar in our view? As it is, and even 345 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 9: when you've seen almost a ten percent kind of broad 346 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 9: dollar move year to date, again we still think that 347 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 9: can you have another ten to fifteen percent dollar down move? Yes? 348 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 9: Is that a one month number? No? Of course not. 349 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 9: It's probably a theme that's here to stay because you 350 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,360 Speaker 9: take a step back and you say, what's twenty twenty five. 351 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 9: We've broken kind of this multilateral trading system globally that's 352 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 9: been the base case for the last fifty years. You've 353 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 9: broken up kind of the global security order of the 354 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 9: US being the backstop there, and so you have things 355 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,479 Speaker 9: like German fiscal and all of these big changes. And 356 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 9: even if you the courts say tariffs can't happen, or 357 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 9: we are pausing on tariffs like the genies out of 358 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 9: the bottle, and the rest of the world has to 359 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 9: think of what is with the uncertainty of policy, what 360 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,199 Speaker 9: is the risk premium that there needs to be to 361 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 9: own the dollar in a tire? 362 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 2: So where to Paul's earlier question, quickly we're running out 363 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 2: of time. Where geographically is the best opportunity to capture coupon? 364 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 2: Is it guilts? Is it German industrial paper? Is it 365 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 2: something I don't know about? I mean, where is that 366 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 2: global yield? I need a coupon opportunity? 367 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think it's like there are Barbell places right, 368 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 9: Like there's certainly a place in a portfolio for this 369 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 9: front end US paper. I think out the curve in 370 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,119 Speaker 9: the UK, there is some opportunity in the long end 371 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 9: of gilts and you have a steep curve there, and 372 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 9: then you look at things like bank paper in Europe 373 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 9: or again like there's some high quality corporate paper in 374 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 9: Europe that known Australia government bombs and semi there's value there. 375 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 5: They're called kangaroos. Yep, exactly. 376 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 2: That won't make it real. 377 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 5: Christina, thank you so much. It's brilliant. 378 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 2: Christina Cameni with us with Invesco here out of Villanova 379 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 2: and the Course. 380 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:20,400 Speaker 5: With Invesco. 381 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 382 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 383 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 384 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:33,680 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 385 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 5: I'm gonna name some names, Sia. 386 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 2: They're three Dreep with a hat trick, Webov, Taniga zeisstron 387 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 2: Ju Tom I think it's Tom Ju and Travis Axelrod. 388 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: That's the management of Tesla around one other guy. When 389 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 2: musk Get's done with his must Trump battle and he 390 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 2: goes back to Tesla, what does he go back to 391 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 2: in terms of running a business? 392 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 5: Dan I's with us, web Bush great to be here. 393 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 10: Look and obviously a twilight Zone day, you know, the 394 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 10: last twenty four hours. I mean, look to me, the 395 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 10: whole vision of Tesla, it's about autonomous. 396 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 2: It all starts, okay, but you didn't answer my question. 397 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 2: He goes out to Austin, Texas. What's there to pick 398 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 2: up the pieces? 399 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 10: Well, I mean, if you look the engineer, I would argue, 400 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 10: the best engineers in the world. If you look at 401 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 10: Tesla's SpaceX, I mean it's foundational. I think around the 402 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 10: world in terms of the best engineering and when it 403 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 10: comes to scale and scope, from Fremont to Tesla to 404 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 10: what we have in China to everything else, Tesla continues 405 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,960 Speaker 10: to be unmatched. And I just view everything that they've 406 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 10: seen from a demand perspective is a near term narrative 407 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 10: of the story that will be short lived because the 408 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 10: future the value I believe it's a trillion dollars of 409 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 10: value and for autonomous alone, that is the focus from USK, 410 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:55,679 Speaker 10: that is the focus for Tesla. 411 00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 4: Just remind us Dan, what is the dependence of tes 412 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 4: so the company on government support? Just freshless kind of 413 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 4: how that relationship is, because I think people are concerned 414 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 4: that maybe that relationship could be at risk and it 415 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 4: could have impact some of the economics. 416 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 10: When I think there's obviously regulatory credits that they lose 417 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 10: and if you go back, not as much today, but 418 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 10: that was a huge part of their profits early on. 419 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 10: I think the bigger thing is around the tax credits 420 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 10: in terms of seventy five hundred hours that in the 421 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 10: bill does proposed that essentially would disappear. That probably hurts 422 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,679 Speaker 10: demand We'll say, let's say five seven, potentially ten percent 423 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 10: in terms of you know, a typical customer that might 424 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 10: not do an Evy and might not do a Tesla. 425 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 5: But when you look at. 426 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 10: The government some of the Trump sort of threats, that 427 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 10: is much more around space Ax than Tesla in terms 428 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 10: of some of those concerns. 429 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:53,640 Speaker 4: So we assume that Elon Musk is he's out of dose, 430 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 4: he's out of government, he's back to work. What does 431 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 4: that mean for Tesla? Have you heard any reporting or 432 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 4: have you heard from your context about is he back 433 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 4: on the floor, is he back in design discussions, what's 434 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 4: going on? 435 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 10: He's been back on the factory. I mean the point 436 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 10: is like this is something where they need their leader 437 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,199 Speaker 10: back in their biggest asset, and that's Musk. And I 438 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 10: think you'll see despite what we've seen the last twenty 439 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 10: four hours that you will see a driven Musk and 440 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 10: we're gonna look in the next six, nine, twelve months 441 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 10: and it's going to be I think, a huge chapter 442 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:26,439 Speaker 10: of growth. 443 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 5: One more question in this silliness. 444 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 2: I want to get to the importance of Apple on Monday, 445 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 2: elon Musk from where you sit. 446 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 5: I don't want any of this tabloid New York Post crap. 447 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 5: I want to know, do you. 448 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 2: Feel that the allegations of drug use intrude on him 449 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 2: giving optimum performance to Tesla? 450 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 10: Look, I mean it's my own view is like with Musk, 451 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 10: it always comes obviously a lot of baggage, but that's 452 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 10: also that's not something I think Moose investors really that 453 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 10: shy away from. I think they focus on Musk as 454 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 10: an engineer, focus on must really as a as a politicians. 455 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 2: You need a surprise out of Coupertino. Here, you're going up, 456 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 2: You've got you know, you have a leer, you don't 457 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 2: have a gulf stream. 458 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 5: You're not yet just there. 459 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 2: Well, when you go for the ETF goes public, you know, 460 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 2: you get up with the six help me here with 461 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 2: Apple here coming up? 462 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 10: Look, I think Monday and we'll be there it's a 463 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 10: very important DAYLOP for WWC, the Developer Conference for Apple 464 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 10: the yearly one. The reason it's so important, and you 465 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 10: know we've talked about on the show a bunch, is 466 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 10: that you go back to a year ago the AI 467 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 10: vision Apple Intelligence. Clearly they were late and a why 468 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,880 Speaker 10: that really never came to fruit. But the developers are 469 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 10: the hearts and lungs of Apple. They basically they need 470 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 10: when it comes to iOS, when it comes to the 471 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 10: future role show developers, when it comes to AI, this 472 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 10: is the platform that you're going to build on. 473 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 5: Let's get up front on this. 474 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 2: They have an agreement with Google on search right, Yes, 475 00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 2: everyone's happy, except for regulators, et cetera. 476 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 5: Why don't they do an agreement? 477 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 2: Drop a bombshell Monday on Gemini on Google Gemini, I 478 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 2: don't get it. 479 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 10: Look, I think a lot of these things. I think 480 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 10: there's so many things that are on the table potentially 481 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 10: in terms of what they could announce and even what 482 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 10: they could start to show breadcrumbs about when you're perplexity 483 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 10: and some others. In other words, the big issue for 484 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 10: Apple right now is that they know the regulators. Indeed, 485 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,400 Speaker 10: you know, if you think about do OJ and others 486 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 10: that they're into the cop in the spider web of 487 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 10: They need to be careful too in terms of partnerships. 488 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 10: They need to make sure that they don't continue to 489 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 10: sort of go down the path that everything they do 490 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 10: is going to get fought. And I think that's why 491 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 10: Google is going to continue to be a huge partner 492 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 10: of theirs. 493 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 5: Email comes in here, missus King emails in. 494 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 2: Is Dan wearing real snow milk? 495 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 5: Did you spill something? 496 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 10: Yes? That that is and that she nailed it. 497 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 9: She nailed it. 498 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,200 Speaker 5: For those of you on radio, it's a certain look. 499 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 2: Is this going to be a collab or is anything 500 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 2: we want to announce it? 501 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,479 Speaker 10: F I mean, we'll have more coming out in the summer, 502 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 10: but we will where the summer be having a clothing clab. 503 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 5: Which clab? 504 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 10: Yeah, it's gonna be a Dan Ives collection. And I'm 505 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 10: gonna make sure Keen. I'm gonna make sure we have 506 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,639 Speaker 10: one for Keen and and and one for Paul and 507 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 10: one for. 508 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 5: All the clab collabs are two x. None of it 509 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 5: would fit us. Oh, they barely get into lease. 510 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 4: Come on for the cool kids, Dan, real quick there, 511 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 4: I'm looking at Apple. Do you when you talk to 512 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 4: your institutional investors around the world. Did they ever say 513 00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,360 Speaker 4: May the stock is down twenty percent this year, It's 514 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 4: flat over the last twelve months. I'm frustrated, which you know, 515 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 4: we rarely have that kind of discussion with Apple, But 516 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,159 Speaker 4: are you having a discussions that plays up. 517 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 10: There's a lot of frustration because really it's kind of 518 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,440 Speaker 10: been a treadmill and it's been an underperformer. But but I, 519 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 10: just like I have for decades, walk investers through. You 520 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,880 Speaker 10: have to be able to see the free cash flow, 521 00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 10: you have to be able to understand the install base. 522 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,360 Speaker 10: You have to seventy percent of the world's on access 523 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 10: in AI device through Apple. 524 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 5: Then we keep you on for another hour, but it's 525 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 5: jobs day. We don't care. Dan, I thank you so much. 526 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 2: WebBook Congratulations on a newly minted ETF. 527 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 528 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,879 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cockplay and Android 529 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 530 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 531 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 532 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 2: Right now a perfect time to speak to Kelly Cox, 533 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:37,439 Speaker 2: chief market strategists at Ridholts Wealth Management, Kelly, guess the 534 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 2: anguish of those in cash right now? Is it a 535 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 2: normal OMG I'm missing out or is there something unusual. 536 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 5: Into the end of the quarter. 537 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 11: Well, they're getting four percent right now if they've if 538 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 11: they've done some searching, So I can't I can't imagine 539 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 11: the English is too bad, especially because you missed the 540 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 11: April volatility. But Tom, I've been shocked by how resilient 541 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 11: the stock market has been. I mean, the stock market 542 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 11: has always been resilient, but there hasn't really there hasn't 543 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 11: been that economic confirmation to really make me feel better 544 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 11: about this rebound. 545 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 10: Kelly. 546 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 4: One of the drivers of this, obviously, of the markets 547 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,159 Speaker 4: in general, are earnings growth, and I think there's some 548 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 4: concern out there about earning trowth. We see earnings estimates 549 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,719 Speaker 4: come down. Have they come down enough or are they 550 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 4: still a risk as more and more of these tariffs 551 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 4: kind of find their way into the economy. 552 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 11: Well, it's interesting because companies had a really good first 553 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,800 Speaker 11: quarter on the surface, and SMP earnings grew almost fourteen percent, 554 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 11: and that was a good six or seven percentage points 555 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 11: above what analysts expected at the beginning of the season. 556 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 11: But the guidance that we got, which you know, you guys, 557 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 11: you guys have talked to me enough, you know that 558 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 11: I'm always talking about the guidance and looking ahead, the 559 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 11: guidance was pretty weak. We saw some companies withdraw we 560 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 11: saw the biomodal guidance, and we saw earnings revisions for 561 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 11: the year continuously cut and cut and cut. So now 562 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 11: earning growth is expected to be around seven percent for 563 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 11: the year, and I got to think that there are 564 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 11: a lot there's a wide disparity that could sit on 565 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 11: either side of that number because we certainly we just 566 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,080 Speaker 11: simply don't know where trade policy could be. It's probably 567 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 11: not going to be as bad as what we first 568 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 11: thought it would be on April second, but it still 569 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 11: doesn't feel like analysts know how to quite deal with 570 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 11: the trade policy impact on profits. 571 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 4: Given that maybe some of the earnings uncertainty hear if 572 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 4: no other reasons, then we just don't know what trade 573 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 4: policy will be. Are there certain sectors or certain areas 574 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 4: you guys feel more comfortable maybe just parking some money. 575 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 11: Well it red holds. We really like value. We especially 576 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 11: like it because our investors are investing for five years, 577 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 11: ten years, decades down the road, and we want them 578 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 11: to have the smoothest ride possible. Because we're all human, 579 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 11: we're trying to sleep at night, so we generally lean 580 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 11: towards value. But we think right now is actually a 581 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 11: smart time to lean away from those sectors with high expectations. 582 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 11: I know this is a hard thing to say, but 583 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 11: Tech is at the top of that list. You know, 584 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 11: obviously Tech is being thrown around by a number of 585 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 11: different factors right now, especially this morning. I mean, look 586 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 11: at Tesla, but Tech, I think people forget is one 587 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,080 Speaker 11: of the highest exposed sectors when it comes to international 588 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 11: revenue and cost of goods exposure. And you know, if 589 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 11: you have restrictive trade policy there, then you know Tech 590 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 11: is probably going to get hit one way or the other. 591 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 5: Say there, Kelly, We're going to come back to you. 592 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 2: We need to get the markets open right now. We 593 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,760 Speaker 2: do a data check, Kelly Cox. Look, equity bonds, currencies 594 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 2: come out of these with Verry Redults at Redults Wealth Management, 595 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: So too, do we futures up. 596 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 5: Fifty seven right now? 597 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 2: It's a one percent move the vics from that twenty 598 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 2: weeks ago. 599 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 5: The angst comes. 600 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 2: Into a hugely bull market seventeen point one four on 601 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 2: the Vixy yield space up off the jobs report, but 602 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 2: then velocity to a higher yield four point ninety three 603 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 2: percent in the thirty year bond four point four to 604 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,959 Speaker 2: six percent, make it four point four to seven percent 605 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 2: of the ten year yield, the ten year real yield 606 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 2: two point one three percent. 607 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 5: We stagger to the open. 608 00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 8: We staggered with John Tucker, all right. 609 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 12: Right at the get go, we are higher down Jones 610 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 12: Industrial average up three hundred and twenty three points, arise 611 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 12: about eight tenths of a percent, the S and P 612 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 12: five hundred and fifty three points higher, That is a 613 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 12: nine tenths of a percent right now. All eleven major 614 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 12: industry groups in the S and P five hundred are higher. 615 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 12: The NASTAC one hunter get in the first trades there 616 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 12: one percent higher, up two hundred and twenty two points. 617 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 12: Most actively traded in the early going shares of Tesla 618 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 12: right now four percent higher, followed by Nvidia up just 619 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 12: about two percent, and Graham Holdings the third most actively 620 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 12: traded stock that is three percent higher. And that is 621 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,200 Speaker 12: your opening bill report. We check the markets for you 622 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 12: all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm John Tucker. 623 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 12: That is your Bloomberg Business Flash Paul and Tom. 624 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 2: John Tucker, Thanks so much. Kelly co with this with 625 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,520 Speaker 2: Ruhold's Wealth Management. Kelly, are we in a bull market? 626 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 2: I just said that, and somebody said a note in 627 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 2: and said time, it's not a bull market. Kelly Cox, 628 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 2: Are we in a bull market? Oh? 629 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, it's the right person. 630 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 11: Because I argue with my colleagues about this all the time. 631 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 11: I take the investor's point of view. I look at 632 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 11: it on a closing basis, and when it comes to 633 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 11: when it comes to closing prices, the S and P 634 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,920 Speaker 11: has not yet fallen twenty percent from a high. Now 635 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 11: you could say intra day that happened, because it did. 636 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 11: But I still think we're in a bull market. I'm 637 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 11: not exactly excited and you know, really really optimistic about 638 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 11: the future, but we are still in a bull market, 639 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 11: and I think as long as we are, you do 640 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 11: have to wonder if stocks can climb a wall of 641 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 11: worry here. 642 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 4: So, Kelly, what do you think of the are you 643 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 4: guys trying in your portfolio? Are you trying to structure 644 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 4: in a slower economy with some of your positioning here, 645 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 4: or maybe something even worse, or are you just saying, 646 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 4: you know what, we're going to look through all this 647 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 4: near term noise and think about the next five to 648 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 4: ten years. 649 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 11: Well, we're doing the latter. We're looking through all this noise. 650 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 10: You know. 651 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 11: We generally, I kind of go back to what I 652 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 11: was saying a few minutes ago, how we build portfolios 653 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 11: aim towards stability and consistency. In a way, those portfolios 654 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 11: actually do look like the kind of portfolio you want 655 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,480 Speaker 11: in a time like this, when job growth is slowing, 656 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,360 Speaker 11: when the economy is weakening, when there are a lot 657 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 11: of reasons to be nervous out there. We lean into quality. 658 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 11: We lean into volume, sorry, not volume value, you know. 659 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 11: We we try to structure portfolios that can get you 660 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,720 Speaker 11: a consistent rate of return. So right now, we're really 661 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 11: proud of our international exposure. We're glad international stocks are working, 662 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 11: and you know, quite frankly, we're glad the stock market 663 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 11: is working. It's just a time to be very mindful 664 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 11: of risks and manage those risks. 665 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 2: And twenty nine points we quote the Dow for Barry 666 00:32:55,920 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 2: red Hols just Tesla up to twelve points, make it 667 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 2: thirteen points. Come off. Let me get that low yesterday. 668 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 2: I could do this with the Bloomberg Professional Service to 669 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 2: seventy four, and we're now racking to ninety seven. 670 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 4: I'm looking at the Internet Circle Internet Group CrCL up 671 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 4: another eighteen percent today. Stock was up one hundred and 672 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 4: sixty percent yesterday, and it's IPO. I don't know what 673 00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 4: this signals. I mean, I'd like to think it signals 674 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,920 Speaker 4: the IPO market maybe is better in better shape than 675 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 4: we thought. CALLI when when you see a stock like 676 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,200 Speaker 4: Circle Internet or just anything but an IPO that trades 677 00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 4: up so much, what do you guys make of that? 678 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 11: Well, it at least shows the animal spirits are here. 679 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 11: And I'm again a little confused as to why there 680 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 11: are such strong animal spirits right now. I mean, maybe 681 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,960 Speaker 11: that's just the resiliency of the retail investor, or, of 682 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 11: the everyday investor who you know still feels like they're 683 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,920 Speaker 11: at a good place with their finances, job markets weakening. 684 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 11: But it's it's clearly having it's clearly a little more 685 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 11: bifurcated than we think. I don't think this lasts very long, 686 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 11: especially with so much business uncertainty out there, but for 687 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,360 Speaker 11: now the IPO window is open and investors are liking it. 688 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:10,520 Speaker 5: Kelly, Thank you. 689 00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 2: Kelly Cox has short notice the real Who's Wealth Management? 690 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,240 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 691 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,280 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 692 00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,279 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 693 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,319 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 694 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:32,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal. 695 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,720 Speaker 2: I don't know why, but May and June and maybe 696 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:38,080 Speaker 2: it's the ferment of the moment of Washington, the war 697 00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:42,319 Speaker 2: in Ukraine. The quality of the writing now across all 698 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 2: politics is exceptional. I've been remiss in not bringing you 699 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 2: the great voices out there. Jennifer Harris, out of Wake Forest, 700 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 2: is one of the great thinkers about getting beyond the 701 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 2: politics that we used to know. She joins us now 702 00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 2: it is a piercing essay and foreign affairs magazine, the 703 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:05,359 Speaker 2: post neoliberal imperative. Jennifer honored to have you with us here. 704 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 2: What's a neoliberal? Define that? 705 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:14,880 Speaker 13: Sure, it's an imperfect term, essentially referring to the economic 706 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 13: recipe that has prevailed really across the political spectrum since 707 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:24,560 Speaker 13: Reagan arrived on the scene. So a deep confidence in 708 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 13: markets to allocate capital effectively and a corresponding skepticism about 709 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 13: the ability of government to sort of shape markets that 710 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:40,839 Speaker 13: you know, catches out in policy terms towards deregulation, you know, 711 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 13: freer trade, free movement, accounty in. 712 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,560 Speaker 2: The political battle of twenty six twenty eight. I haven't 713 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,960 Speaker 2: said this Yetpon, I'm depressed of thirty two. 714 00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 5: That's Michael Barr. 715 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:53,359 Speaker 2: We can still be working at. 716 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 5: Thirty two now, probably will, Okay. 717 00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 2: Jennifer, I'm depressed in the political battle our two presidential generations. 718 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 2: Is there any understanding of what a new Washington consensus 719 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:07,319 Speaker 2: looks like? 720 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 13: I think there is. I mean, I think we've really 721 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,480 Speaker 13: been working on the next script, so to speak, the 722 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 13: next consensus about what makes for good economic policy. Since 723 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,520 Speaker 13: Trump's arrival on the scene in twenty sixteen, right, he 724 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:26,680 Speaker 13: upended a whole lot of these sort of nostrums or 725 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,760 Speaker 13: pieces of conventional wisdom about what makes for good economic policy. 726 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,680 Speaker 13: And you saw a fair bit of consensus across both 727 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:38,200 Speaker 13: right and left on rethinking trade, on a new willingness 728 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 13: to embrace industrial policy, on you know, sort of a 729 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 13: different philosophy around antitrust, and I think at least on 730 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 13: the left and maybe on the right, rethinking monetary policy. 731 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,000 Speaker 13: We saw the Phillips curve essentially break over the last 732 00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 13: couple of years, a sense that we may not have 733 00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 13: to manufactures in order to get inflation down. So, you know, 734 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,480 Speaker 13: I think that you see the seeds of rethinking on 735 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,840 Speaker 13: both right and left. That's what journalists like Dave Wonhard 736 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:12,840 Speaker 13: at New York Times has called a new centrism. So 737 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,960 Speaker 13: I think you do see signal amidst the beluminous noise, 738 00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:18,239 Speaker 13: let's say, of Washington. 739 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,680 Speaker 4: The President Trump and his followers seemed to have really 740 00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,920 Speaker 4: taken over the GOP as we all grew up with. 741 00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:24,440 Speaker 2: It. 742 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 4: Is that something that can outlive President Trump? Do you think? 743 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 13: I do you think so anything? It's a generation shift. 744 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,239 Speaker 13: Look at a lot of you know, under forty under 745 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:40,480 Speaker 13: forty five staffers on the right, organizations like American Compass, 746 00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,760 Speaker 13: they are actually out there pushing for revenue increases in 747 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 13: the current tax fight, which is the last time I checked. 748 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,720 Speaker 13: Not Paul Ryan's a Republican Party and not not anything 749 00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:54,040 Speaker 13: that Grover Norquist is in out there comfortable with. And yeah, 750 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:55,680 Speaker 13: it's really part of the debate and do I think 751 00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,239 Speaker 13: it's going to prevail this time. No, But just the 752 00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,640 Speaker 13: fact that we're having that kind of to be on 753 00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:05,520 Speaker 13: writ of center, you know, and as these high stakes 754 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,480 Speaker 13: questions are really getting called, I think is testament to 755 00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:09,760 Speaker 13: the sea change and thinking. 756 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,359 Speaker 2: Jennifer, Thank you so much, Jennifer Harris, writing and Foreign 757 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,279 Speaker 2: Foreign Affairs co chair build US and of course your 758 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 2: former public city of the service to the nation with 759 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,200 Speaker 2: the National Security at Council. 760 00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:27,600 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 761 00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:31,520 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 762 00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:35,360 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 763 00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,320 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 764 00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,760 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 765 00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,040 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.