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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm kerin Moscow.

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Speaker 1: There's brought to your by Versings Inside sixteen the must

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Speaker 1: attend event for advisers less than one week away June

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Speaker 1: seventh or the ninth. If you haven't registered, you still

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Speaker 1: can visit Inside twenty sixteen dot com. That's I N

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Speaker 1: S I ten dot com. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index has

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Speaker 1: just come in the reading of forty nine points three analysts.

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Speaker 1: We're looking for a reading of fifty point five. Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia considering the sale of as much as fifteen billion

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Speaker 1: dollars of bonds this year, encouraged by investor demand for

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Speaker 1: a Quitar's recent issue that, according to people with knowledge

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Speaker 1: of the matter, billionaire investor Carl Icon has taken what

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Speaker 1: he called a large position and drug maker Alegan. Icon

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Speaker 1: also said he's very supportive of Allergan. Chief executive Brent Saunders,

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Speaker 1: who Icon help play, said Forest Laboratories, which was later

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Speaker 1: bought by what is now other again stocks this morning

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Speaker 1: little change to hire the s and P five hundred

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Speaker 1: up a tenth of a percent, up two points to

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Speaker 1: oh one. Dow Jones industrial average of eleven points has

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Speaker 1: less than a tenth of a percent to seventeen thousand,

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Speaker 1: eight hundred eighty three. Then asked acts up two tenths

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Speaker 1: per cent to eight points to forty two. Ten year

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Speaker 1: treasury down eight thirty seconds, the yield one point eight

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Speaker 1: seven percent yield on a two year point nine two

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Speaker 1: percent Nimex screwed oil up one point one per cent,

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Speaker 1: or fifty four cents to eighties seven of arrow Comax

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Speaker 1: called down two tenths per center two dollars to twelve

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Speaker 1: fourteen seventy and ounce the euro dollar eleven sixty five

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Speaker 1: agin one eleven point one nine. That's a Bloomberg business flash,

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Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much. Michael, we're not

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Speaker 1: going to do a section on romantic coupling. Help me here,

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Speaker 1: unromantic coupling. Actually, I um, you have a recent graduate

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Speaker 1: in your family. I don't be all and I'm just

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Speaker 1: wondering if you're preparing the guest bedroom for for the

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Speaker 1: progeny to return home. Fortunately, why you got me the

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Speaker 1: bloody mary legin in it this morning? Why don't you

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Speaker 1: interview the good Mr Fry to clear us of our depression.

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Speaker 1: Richard Fry as a senior researcher at the pew UH

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Speaker 1: Institute Research Institute, and they have done a study of

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Speaker 1: those who are returning home. More people in the eighteen

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Speaker 1: to thirty four year old category are living with their

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Speaker 1: parents uh than living with a spouse or partner, the

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Speaker 1: romantic attachment. Tom was talking about, uh, first time in

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Speaker 1: more than a hundred and thirty years that we are

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Speaker 1: seeing that, and Uh, I guess h Richard. The first

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Speaker 1: question is, um, why Obviously two thousand and eight, two

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Speaker 1: thousand nine, everybody lost their job and had to move

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Speaker 1: back home. But the economy has picked up since then. Yeah. Um.

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Speaker 1: But what the report analysis shows is, yes, since the

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Speaker 1: Great Recession there was an uptick in young adults UM

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Speaker 1: living with their parents. But this actually is much longer

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Speaker 1: in the making. Uh. In nineteen sixty, about one in

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Speaker 1: five young adults were living with their parents. Now through

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Speaker 1: two thourteen, it's almost a third, and already by two

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Speaker 1: thousand and seven about so yes, this is partly has

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Speaker 1: to do with the Great Recession and the weak recovery

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Speaker 1: since then, but this is a much longer UM phenomenon. Well,

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Speaker 1: what is driving it? Then? Well, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: variety of factors likely, But what I would point to

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Speaker 1: is the labor market. What we sort of see, particularly

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Speaker 1: for young men, the typical young men, their job holding

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Speaker 1: has fallen, the wages they're being paid, UM, reflecting sort

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Speaker 1: of the changing fortunes of young men. UM. They are

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Speaker 1: both UM not partnering as well. It's likely the case

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Speaker 1: that UM they're a bill to live independently, which is

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Speaker 1: expensive UM that has been curtailed. So I would sort

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Speaker 1: of point for particularly for young men, they're declining projects,

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Speaker 1: which has been noted by many labor economists. There's always

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Speaker 1: with you, just congratulations on just an incredibly clear, detailed report.

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Speaker 1: You do take it back to the late depression year

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Speaker 1: nineteen forty of course Germany and in the United Kingdom

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Speaker 1: at war, but pre Pearl Harbor. What does this say

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Speaker 1: about a depression like economy? Now, if you can take

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Speaker 1: your research back to nine, well, we actually could take

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Speaker 1: the living arrangements parts all the way back on here

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Speaker 1: in thirty years, back to eighteen eighty, but you're right,

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Speaker 1: ninety is sort of a bell weather for UM young

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Speaker 1: adults living with their parents, and there that was the

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Speaker 1: record high. Thirty five were living with their parents. Two

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Speaker 1: thousand fourteen, it's thirty two point one percent, So fourteen

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Speaker 1: is not the record high. Again, we had not yet

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Speaker 1: Pearl Harbor had not occurred yet, we hadn't sort of

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Speaker 1: ramped up the mobilization for the war. So I think

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Speaker 1: why were so many young adults in ninety This is I,

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Speaker 1: asreally pointed, this is the lingering effects of the Great Depression,

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Speaker 1: the thirty eight recession. Labor markets were still pretty weak

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Speaker 1: in as best we can tell from labor market statistics.

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Speaker 1: And I think you're you're right that um that pointed

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Speaker 1: to the very difficult job circumstances. UM coming out of

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee is a soft touch on this. I'm the

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Speaker 1: tough one. I threw them out on. I guess sleep

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Speaker 1: under a vengeance? Smolar, What does your research say about parents?

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Speaker 1: No more saying oh that's good, We're thrilled you're here. Um,

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Speaker 1: I think this can work for eight weeks and then

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Speaker 1: you have to leave. Is that tone evaporated from parents

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Speaker 1: where they basically throw the offspring out the door? UM?

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Speaker 1: I don't think we know. It's often sort of asserted

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Speaker 1: if there's been a change in parental attitudes. Um P

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Speaker 1: has done quite a bit of of surveying of the

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Speaker 1: young adults attitudes towards this arrangement. We don't have a

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Speaker 1: lot of information on how the parents feel. And what's

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Speaker 1: very clear is we don't have, you know, surveys of

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Speaker 1: parents back in the nine nineties and the nineties and

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Speaker 1: nineteen seventies. So while I agree it may be it

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Speaker 1: possible that there's been a change in sort of cultural

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Speaker 1: and parental attitudes, I don't have any hardened fast survey

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Speaker 1: evidence to sort of back that up, right? Can I

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Speaker 1: help you with the survey? This was done over a

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Speaker 1: glass of Jack Daniels, and it was done two days

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Speaker 1: after the exit hockey. We need to know you do

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Speaker 1: we have uh, do we have any evidence of how

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Speaker 1: long once they come back people are staying with their parents? No, no,

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Speaker 1: we don't and not in this particularly in my report,

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Speaker 1: based on census data. Um you don't know the duration

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Speaker 1: of their stage. Clearly, what this is, this is a

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Speaker 1: moment point in time. Some of them, you're right, have

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Speaker 1: left and come back, and we're catching them coming back.

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Speaker 1: Um we don't in this report have any information on

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Speaker 1: how long they are staying first for us within the

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Speaker 1: demographics eighteen thirty four, all of our listeners they have

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Speaker 1: a magic mike, what's your magic number in your head?

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Speaker 1: Nine twenty three years old. I don't know when adults starts,

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Speaker 1: but you know, every house, every marriage, whatever, it has

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Speaker 1: a framework of when adults starts. With great respects, some

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Speaker 1: of our listeners think it starts in eighteen. What's the

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Speaker 1: parsing within the eighteen thirty four it's it's pretty pretty clear.

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Speaker 1: It's a nice gradient, so to speak. Um, the four

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Speaker 1: year olds will be the most likely to live at

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Speaker 1: home and at least likely to be partners. And then

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Speaker 1: by the time you're thirty to thirty four, many fewer

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Speaker 1: of them are living at home and they're more likely

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Speaker 1: um to be partnered. Having said that, okay, the increase

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Speaker 1: since nineteen six in both living with your parents and

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Speaker 1: the falloff in sort of um, being out on your

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Speaker 1: own with a partner in your own household, you will

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Speaker 1: see that for twenty nine and the older young adults,

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Speaker 1: the increase is a parent among all age groups. Among

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Speaker 1: the young adults, So, uh, is there a demographic breakdown

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Speaker 1: of who lives with whom here um, yes you what

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Speaker 1: you'll tend to see and the report sort of points

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Speaker 1: this out. Is this phenomenon, this tipping point of being

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Speaker 1: more likely to live with your parents than UM with

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Speaker 1: a spouse or partner off in your own household. It's

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Speaker 1: much more sort of UM has occurred more quickly for

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Speaker 1: racial and ethnic minorities. Already by ninteen eighty, African Americans

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Speaker 1: were already more likely to be living with their parents

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Speaker 1: UM than with the spouse or partner. For Hispanics, they

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Speaker 1: crossed over in two thousand and eleven. Sort of associated

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Speaker 1: with this you sort of they see a very clear

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Speaker 1: um sort of edge occational relationship UM. High school dropouts

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Speaker 1: they crossed over in two thousand six. High school graduates

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Speaker 1: those who hadn't just stopped their education to high school

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Speaker 1: two thousand eight. For those with some college or associates degrees,

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Speaker 1: they crossed over in two thousand ten, and now by

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Speaker 1: two thousand fourteen, young adults with college graduates, young adults

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Speaker 1: with at least a bachelor's degree, they are the only

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Speaker 1: educational demographic that is more likely to be you know,

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Speaker 1: married or cohabitating off in their own household than UM

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Speaker 1: living with their parents. So again it's more racial lefting minorities,

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Speaker 1: and it's a more phenomenon of the less educated. This

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Speaker 1: is what else are you working on? I mean a

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Speaker 1: few folks go to the Pure Research Center website and

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Speaker 1: there's any number of brilliant things. They just did a

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Speaker 1: definitive story in the middle class of financial times played

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Speaker 1: up big. They have Eileen Patton where their Latino population

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Speaker 1: analysis is stunning and certainly germane to the election. Richard Fry,

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Speaker 1: what a also you working on right now? Um? We are.

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Speaker 1: I'll continue to sort of monitor um young adult living

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Speaker 1: arrangements clearly, um, but we are increasingly sort of ramping

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Speaker 1: up for a major project on the future of work

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Speaker 1: and um sort of. So that's sort of occupying some

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Speaker 1: of myself and my colleagues UM time. So we don't

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Speaker 1: don't come to us because Mike and Mike McKee and

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Speaker 1: I we don't have a real job. You don't, Richard,

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Speaker 1: I congratulations on a and now somehow I think this

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Speaker 1: will uh, Mike, I think one or two copies of

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Speaker 1: this in the basement will look good. This when your

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Speaker 1: recent graduate returns home for the first time in the

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Speaker 1: modern are living with your parents. It's gotta be you,

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Speaker 1: gotta you gotta make it cool, right Yeah yeah, Richard Fry,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much with your research. So this is

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Speaker 1: what a interesting Tuesday, What a great group of guests. Yes,

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Speaker 1: top to bottom, job to day, there's an easy v

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Speaker 1: before were that job's day? And Friday again we'll go

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Speaker 1: beneath the headline data. Friday morning at eight thirty we

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Speaker 1: are produced with enthusiasm by why you n can value

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Speaker 1: our Global technical director, Bloomberg Surveillance