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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I canna just about that action.

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 1: Here we go from throwing out so spect I'm sitting

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Speaker 1: up to a cash to stop and that's all we see.

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Speaker 2: Most gamble is ships. When they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go swin. That's incredible. Big bank like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kaba you want to.

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Speaker 3: And we are under way. What is up?

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Speaker 2: Everybody? Welcome to the Action and Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Chris Raybaun NFL. Week two is here.

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Speaker 4: I'm joined by the odds maker Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 2: I'm joined by Jill Golant and Shawn's dogs have to

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Speaker 2: go to the vet.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna I'm gonna hurry this up. We're gonna

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Speaker 4: get right into it. Had a couple of hits last week,

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Speaker 4: Tray Tucker, Johnny Smith, Mecca Buca, Zach Sharbonay. So if

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Speaker 4: you want some of these bets this week, just look

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Speaker 4: for the quick whip wink in the episode description in

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Speaker 4: the video description as well, or but Action Network dot

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Speaker 4: Com slash bet now son what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Hope? The dogs are all good?

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Speaker 4: You got Jacksonville at Cincinnati, a game that I like

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Speaker 4: the over ind so it's a good one to start off.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, the Dogs are good. Maybe that's a good

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Speaker 5: sign for the Commanders tonight plus three and a half.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, like I was hitting touchdown bets on here

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Speaker 5: at you know, four to one or greater at a

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Speaker 5: high rate than you know, coin flip props in Week

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Speaker 5: one for me. So I'm loving this format, loving having

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Speaker 5: Jill join us. So pumped for the Week two one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's going I'm Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Dude, We're already

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Speaker 2: in the game. We're already in there after it the Dogs.

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Speaker 6: Hey, you're the one that brought him up.

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Speaker 5: Okay, Raybon, I'm gonna steal your guy from last week

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Speaker 5: that didn't score, but I thought it was a great read.

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Speaker 5: And it's Trevor Lawrence plus five over at bet MGM

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Speaker 5: right now. You know, he you know, he had kind

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Speaker 5: of a weak debut. You and I both talked about that,

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Speaker 5: but I think he still has a chance to eventually

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Speaker 5: see that tush push play you mentioned. They've been practicing,

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Speaker 5: and they you know, they just traded away arguably their

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Speaker 5: best short yardage back in Tank Bigsby, So maybe that

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Speaker 5: kind of opens up the door for them to explore

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Speaker 5: things like you know, using Lawrence in the Toush push.

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Speaker 5: But Lawrence himself has always just been sneaky when it

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Speaker 5: comes to his rushing upside. And his scrambl right was

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Speaker 5: actually up two week one. I know it's a small

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Speaker 5: sample size, but it's you know, an encouraging one for

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Speaker 5: this market. So I think plus five fifty is a

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Speaker 5: bit too high. I have it still around like four

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Speaker 5: to one, so I think the run at back play here.

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Speaker 6: Should be a good one.

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Speaker 7: Uh.

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Speaker 5: And then on the other side, going back to the

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Speaker 5: guy I think I brought up like ten times on

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Speaker 5: this pod last year, and it's Noah fan of the

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Speaker 5: Bengals at five to one. I mean, sure enough, he

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Speaker 5: went through that big long scoring drought and in his

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Speaker 5: first game with the Bengals he scores a touchdown. I

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Speaker 5: think his stat line of four catches for twenty six

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Speaker 5: yards and touchdowns kind of fluky because he saw, you know,

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Speaker 5: way less playing time than he saw when he was

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Speaker 5: in since Seattle. You know, he had a forty eight

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Speaker 5: percent routes run rate, which is way lower than what

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Speaker 5: we'd expect, but that was still the most of any

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Speaker 5: of the Bengals, you know, seven tight ends. So I

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Speaker 5: think when it comes to Fantu, you know he's going

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Speaker 5: to be out there probably in like the gold to

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Speaker 5: go situations, they're going to run more too tight end personnel.

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Speaker 5: He was in that formation for most of the game

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Speaker 5: and his debut, So I like his chances here to

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Speaker 5: you know, double up and score another touchdown this week,

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Speaker 5: especially you know at five to one odds, and you

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Speaker 5: know he's not seeing as much playing time, but there's

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Speaker 5: more passing touchdowns to go around on the Bengals, So

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Speaker 5: I like his upside in this market here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and most important, we Tanner Hudson did not play

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Speaker 4: a snap on offense we've even though he was active,

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Speaker 4: So Noah Fan has taken over that full Eric All

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Speaker 4: role in that Bengal offense.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I think this could be a high scoring game.

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Speaker 4: I know, I know both of these teams had kind

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Speaker 4: of underwhelming you know, totals in Week one, but I

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Speaker 4: think they.

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Speaker 2: Get back to it all. Right, Jill, what's going on?

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Speaker 6: Man?

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Speaker 4: Patriots at the Miami Disasters? I guess you could call

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Speaker 4: him That's what it feels like right now. So where

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Speaker 4: are you going on New England side? And then who

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Speaker 4: got from Miami.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: For New England, I went with Kashawan Boody. And I'll

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Speaker 1: be saying this right now. If Daniel Jones is carving

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Speaker 1: up your secondary like, it could get way worse like,

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Speaker 1: so you could be in big trouble defensively. So for

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Speaker 1: me would have came down to is I was looking

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Speaker 1: at both the Mario Douglas or Kaishan Boody here, But

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Speaker 1: in this spot, I went with Booty because it's more

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Speaker 1: of a deep threat than Douglas has been, more a

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Speaker 1: Dodd just better yards per route run. And the Dolphins,

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Speaker 1: like I said, they didn't really improve their secondary effect.

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Speaker 1: They kind of downgraded and they were bottom five versus

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Speaker 1: the deep ball in defensive d v Awa last year.

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Speaker 1: Saw a little bit more of that in Week one,

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Speaker 1: even though the Colts didn't really need to throw too much.

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Speaker 1: So again, I think Drake May and the Pats passing offense,

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Speaker 1: this is actually a game where I think they could

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Speaker 1: rebound compared to what we saw against the Raiders last week.

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Speaker 1: Now on the Dolphins side, Raybun, we gotta go with

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Speaker 1: Nick Westbrookakinye here, I'm taking him again eight touchdowns last

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Speaker 1: year he was the most profitable anytime touchdown scorer last

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Speaker 1: year at fifty units, if you had just bet one

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Speaker 1: unit on every game that he played. And I think

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Speaker 1: the thing too that I'm a little worried about from

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Speaker 1: a Dolphins standpoint.

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Speaker 2: Is Jalen Wattle has just made of glass.

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Speaker 1: Like I know that he came back, but there's at

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Speaker 1: least one or two times a game where it's I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he's going to get up, and then

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Speaker 1: you know he could be still dealing with a shoulder injury.

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Speaker 1: So if the Dolphins get in the red zone, I

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Speaker 1: think the pass will try to stop Tyreek and hm.

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Speaker 1: I think that'll lead more opportunities for Westbrook Akinye, especially

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Speaker 1: at plus seven hundred.

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Speaker 2: If the Dolphins getting a red zone.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Pop Douglas, you mentioned boute, Pop dougla thirty

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Speaker 4: nine routes run negative two yards, that is negative route

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Speaker 4: yards per route run and somehow got a touchdown. That's

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Speaker 4: one of the most interesting stats. Javonte Williams esque right there.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, like Kayshaun Boots might emerge. Is that top

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Speaker 4: Pats receiver when it's all said done. Oh Man, David

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Speaker 4: Payne just giving me the worst games yet again, I

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Speaker 4: got Niners at the Niners at the Saints. This one,

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Speaker 4: the totals down about forty and a half with the

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Speaker 4: nine is favored by three.

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Speaker 2: You leave me no choice, David.

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Speaker 4: I gotta go with Christian McCaffrey here minus one sixty five.

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Speaker 4: He is the best value I have according to my projections,

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Speaker 4: even though he's a little juiced up over even, and

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Speaker 4: that's because he ed all running backs in red zone

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Speaker 4: carries in Week one somehow got eight, tied for the

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Speaker 4: league lead in red zone routes, and also tied for

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Speaker 4: the league lead in red zone targets and red zone catches.

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Speaker 4: He's gonna be their entire offense this week. No, no

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Speaker 4: George Kittle. Jennings already banged up and missed a lot

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Speaker 4: of practice time in the offseason, So it's going to

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Speaker 4: be the Christian McCaffrey show. No need to get fancy there.

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Speaker 4: New Orleans I think is gonna be a little more fun,

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Speaker 4: a little more wide open. I'm going with Brandon Cooks

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Speaker 4: at seven to one. He had an eighty six percent

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Speaker 4: route rate in Week one, also had a fifty seven

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Speaker 4: percent red zone route rate, and they tried veayway on

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Speaker 4: a snap. That's why Cooks wasn't up at you know,

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Speaker 4: like one hundred. They missed him in the red zone.

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Speaker 4: They also tried Olave, Shaheed and Juwan Johnson combined four times.

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Speaker 4: So Johnson, Shaheed, Veyley, Olave the other four not you know,

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Speaker 4: top receivers. Five targets in the red zone, zero catches.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's about time they give Brandon Cooks

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Speaker 4: a better shot here with the actual target in the

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Speaker 4: red zone.

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Speaker 2: So going with him at seven to one.

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Speaker 4: I think he's undervalued based on just the amount of

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Speaker 4: routes that he's running in these games. All right, Cleveland

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Speaker 4: at Baltimore, Sean Kerner, big spread for the Ravens. We

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Speaker 4: know what will happen to go up big and then

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Speaker 4: the Browns to score like four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 4: So who's going to score one of them?

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Speaker 5: Well, you know where I'm going with the Browns. Our

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Speaker 5: guy Harold fannin junior at four to one right now,

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Speaker 5: saw a really big role in his NFL debut. Despite

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Speaker 5: David Joku's still there. He actually tied for second on

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Speaker 5: the team with the twenty four percent first read rate,

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Speaker 5: and Joku is all the way down at eight percent,

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Speaker 5: so they're clearly scheming up plays or you know, Joe

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Speaker 5: Flacco was looking the rookies way more than Djoku already.

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Speaker 5: So I want to buy in on fan and Junior

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Speaker 5: early and often. So I'm taking him at four to one.

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Speaker 5: Like you said, this could be you know, a garbage

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Speaker 5: time score late in the game. I don't care when

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Speaker 5: it is, but it's going to happen this week. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: the Ravens, I got to get creative here. I'm gonna

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Speaker 5: go with Rashen Ali at sixteen to one. You know,

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Speaker 5: the Ravens could easily blow the Browns out. You know,

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Speaker 5: who the hell knows of the going to blow the

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Speaker 5: league this time. But I think more times than not,

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Speaker 5: we'll see garbage time here. And last week, Keithon Mitchell

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Speaker 5: was actually a healthy scratch, so Rasheen Ellie you know,

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Speaker 5: saw some of the mop up duty before they realized,

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Speaker 5: you know, the game was still in reach. And Justice Hill,

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Speaker 5: you know, Justice Hill, he's the backup, but he gets

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Speaker 5: starter treatment. He's not going to be out there mop

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Speaker 5: up time. So it could be all Ali out there

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Speaker 5: if Mitchell's a healthy scratch again. So I like Elie

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Speaker 5: at you know, sixteen to one. Also liked him to

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Speaker 5: score the last touchdown at fifty to one. I think

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Speaker 5: that's a really sharp angle.

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Speaker 2: Like that one.

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Speaker 4: I'll just you know, because I am the inactive whisper

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Speaker 4: kind of uh oh here is there is a chance

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Speaker 4: because of all the funck shit that happened, they want

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Speaker 4: like Mitchell active to take some of that late game stuff.

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Speaker 4: So I think there's a chance you could have Mitchell

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Speaker 4: active over Ali and because they could just play the

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Speaker 4: kind of the same role. But if that's if that's

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Speaker 4: the case, I think they'll be around the same odd

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Speaker 4: So I just everything you said about Ali just to

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Speaker 4: apply it to Mitchell.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you nailed nailed the like Jayden Blue

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Speaker 5: or Miles Sanders. So I mean what you could do

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Speaker 5: is bet on both maybe yeah, the last touchdown score

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Speaker 5: market and then the one that's inactive you get.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, uh in the West and West for some reason,

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Speaker 4: if they don't elevate Zaire and Mitchell Paydon again and

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Speaker 4: like that that like Rick Ricard plays that there could

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Speaker 4: be some But yeah, I think it's one. It's an

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Speaker 4: early game, right, so one way or another, Well we

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Speaker 4: kind of know what's going on. Uh, all right, Jill

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Speaker 4: Giants at the Cowboys Giants. I mean, how many freaking

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Speaker 4: shots did they have in close last week?

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Speaker 2: And yes, it was just.

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Speaker 4: Blown play after blown play like everybody. I think they

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Speaker 4: even tried the rookie uh scataboo for for a carry

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Speaker 4: that got stuffed in close. So uh now it's time

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Speaker 4: for you know, new week where you go and g

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Speaker 4: Men and Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with THEO Johnson again because on

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Speaker 1: the surface, the obvious choice is probably neighbors, but just

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Speaker 1: around plus one fifty it's just not enough value for

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Speaker 1: me in this spot. But specifically the Cowboys, they did

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Speaker 1: what I thought they were gonna do with Matty Berflus's

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Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, went to that heavy zone approach. They ended

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Speaker 1: up playing the most zone of any team in Week one,

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Speaker 1: and THEO Johnson has actually seen his metrics as he's

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Speaker 1: very limited sample, but again last year did play well

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Speaker 1: against zone and he's played over seventy percent of snaps

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Speaker 1: in Week one. We saw in Week one as well,

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Speaker 1: the Eagles just Pepper Dallas Goddard over and over again

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Speaker 1: because the Cowboys did whatever they could to try to

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Speaker 1: just shut down AJ Brown at Davonte Smith.

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Speaker 2: And Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Again, I'm not a big believer in him anymore, but

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Speaker 1: I think he could be a big target for Russe

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Speaker 1: in the end zone because we saw Russ last year

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Speaker 1: with the Steelers to close the season, he targeted Pat

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Speaker 1: Fryarmoth like a I don't want to say, but like

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Speaker 1: a mother. So four touchdowns over the final six games

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Speaker 1: of the regular season for Pat Bryermoth, and I think

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Speaker 1: that will continue with THEO Johnson, especially around the four

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Speaker 1: to one range. Take it any lower than four to one.

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Speaker 1: On the Cowboys side, I'm going back to Cavantae Turpin.

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Speaker 1: I mean the usage of Week one pretty encouraging guys

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Speaker 1: like two targets, two carries. I think he's taken the

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Speaker 1: third wide receiver role over Jalen Tolbert at this point.

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Speaker 1: And the Giants, I mean they played a ton of

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Speaker 1: man coverage in Week one, a lot of Cover one

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Speaker 1: as well, which usually sets up good for Ceedee Lamb.

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Speaker 1: But it was actually Turpin last year who led the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys in yards per rout run versus man defenses, and

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Speaker 1: he had a higher target share than Jake Ferguson and

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Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks.

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Speaker 2: When he was on the team as well.

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Speaker 1: So I think Cavante Turpin is who I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: at anything over four to one. Fun fact about Turpin

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Speaker 1: as well, he's been the most profitable anytime touchdown score

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Speaker 1: for the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: In each of the last two seasons. Yeah, I would

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Speaker 2: be some Cavante Turpin. He's super fast.

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Speaker 4: Of course he can run away from man coverage. That

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Speaker 4: makes a lot of sense. And yeah, when it comes

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Speaker 4: to THEO Johnson, tight ends tend to do better agains

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Speaker 4: zone coverage. In general, zone coverage, you tend to play that.

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Speaker 4: It's a little more safer. More guys deep tends to

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Speaker 4: hurt the wide receiver production or so, and tight ends

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Speaker 4: get a booth. So like those Bears at the Detroit Lions,

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Speaker 4: Bears looked looked a mess last week after that first

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Speaker 4: you know, first couple of drives, I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 4: the Lamide Zakias at four to one. He is a

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Speaker 4: guy who a lot of people in the fantasy community

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Speaker 4: are probably not too happy with because he's blocking Luther

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Speaker 4: Burden the third from playing more. But Zakias, you know,

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Speaker 4: he's had a great camp with great in Week one

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Speaker 4: and he had one.

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Speaker 6: Of the two.

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Speaker 4: He was one of the two players on the Bears

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Speaker 4: with a red zone target. And we've heard that all

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Speaker 4: summer that he's been. Him and cablep have had good

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Speaker 4: chemistry there. So you know, he had a fifty nine

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Speaker 4: to twenty three percent edge in total routes run over

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Speaker 4: Luther Burden per dropback. So like Zakias at fourida one

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Speaker 4: for the Bears and then Isaac to Slow for the

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Speaker 4: Detroit Lions at plus four ninety five. Right here you go,

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Speaker 4: I think you hit on him last back and uh yeah,

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Speaker 4: and listen. So I was like, he had to play

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Speaker 4: three snaps. One hundred percent of those snaps came in

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Speaker 4: the red zone. He had a touchdown on those three snaps,

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Speaker 4: and the coaches then after the game said he'll play

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Speaker 4: more going forward, which you know, Khalif Raymond pretty much

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Speaker 4: played every other snap at the third wide receiver spot,

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Speaker 4: which I kind of hinted at. I knew he was

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Speaker 4: playing more, didn't realize he would play that much, but

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Speaker 4: it could flip this week. You could see to Slaw

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Speaker 4: play you know, seventy five eighty percent of the snaps

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Speaker 4: and Raymond go back to his usual you know, twenty

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Speaker 4: five percent that he was playing last year, so I

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Speaker 4: want to buy in on this guy again early. I

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Speaker 4: still think he's priced to oh here at plus four

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Speaker 4: ninety five souh two of the best names in the

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Speaker 4: books Alama days A Kias and Isaac to Slaw.

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Speaker 2: In this Bears.

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Speaker 4: Lions matchup, Bill's at the much improved looking Jets, I

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Speaker 4: thought the Tanner Engstron's definitely winning that like versus Dan

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Speaker 4: Campbell and Ben Johnson, Like Tanner Entstrince offense look amazing,

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Speaker 4: whereas the other two completely lost. That goes even deeper

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Speaker 4: into the all twenty two Kerner. So who do I

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Speaker 4: can fulb start the Bills, but.

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Speaker 2: Then then get talk to me about the Jets.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the Bills.

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Speaker 5: I love josh Palmer here or as he is in

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Speaker 5: my spreadsheet, Joshua Palmer at four plus plus four forty

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Speaker 5: over at FanDuel. You know, he operated as a top

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Speaker 5: three wide receiver as expected and mostly saw downfield throws,

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Speaker 5: which I expected. He led all wideouts with a thirteen

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Speaker 5: yard a dot. And the thing with the Bills is

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Speaker 5: once they get in the you know, gold to got situations,

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Speaker 5: it's gonna be either Josh Allen or James Cook getting

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Speaker 5: the score, or you know, if they throw somebody, it'll

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Speaker 5: be Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid. I mean Keyon Coleman's

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Speaker 5: touchdown was actually a target two Kincaid that he dropped.

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Speaker 5: So I think Josh Palmer has a sneaky way of

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Speaker 5: scoring touchdowns, which is he can score outside of the

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Speaker 5: red zone with these deeper outs sort of you know,

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Speaker 5: the Gabe Davis role. So I like him here at

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Speaker 5: plus four forty.

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Speaker 6: And on the other.

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Speaker 5: Side, you know, usually Bills games, I give out ty

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Speaker 5: Johnson if they're the underdog or like it's gonna a

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Speaker 5: close game, they're big favorites here. So I'm gonna go

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Speaker 5: with Tyler Johnson of the Jets. He's nine to one

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Speaker 5: right now. You know, he operated as the clear number

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Speaker 5: three wide receiver on this team. We had no idea

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Speaker 5: what was going on heading into the game. You know,

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Speaker 5: Alan Lazard was a healthy scratch. They I think Tyler

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Speaker 5: Johnson was on the practice squad. They called him up

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Speaker 5: and you know he was their starting, uh slot guy.

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Speaker 6: So I think he has some upside here.

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Speaker 5: Like you said that, the offense did look way better

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Speaker 5: than I expected, and Josh Reynolds and Mason Taylor popped

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Speaker 5: up on the injury report, So I think grabbing Tyler

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Speaker 5: Johnson right now at nine to one makes sense just

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Speaker 5: in case, you know, one or both those guys go out.

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Speaker 5: He's gonna see, uh, you know, additional opportunity either way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, man, Tyler Johnson, he just got promoted, so he's

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Speaker 4: he's he's on the roster now. I think in a

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Speaker 4: week when he was actually call up. So yeah, they

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Speaker 4: definitely look like they're gonna stick with him there. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: Josh Josh Palmer, Joshua with Palmer, Josh Palmer senr Uh,

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Speaker 4: He's got a lot of names.

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Speaker 2: Ahiight, Jill.

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Speaker 4: This is another ugly one Seahawks after Pittsburgh Steelers. Steelers

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Speaker 4: favorite by three total forty and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I hated this game for touchdowns. I have no

364
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Speaker 1: problem being upfront. There's not every game is is Bill's

365
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Speaker 1: Ravens right. So, like I think they're.

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Speaker 4: Only had sixty four points in their sixty six points

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Speaker 4: in their game last week, touchdown seven touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Well, I have a touchdown bet, but in protest, I

369
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Speaker 1: am going to continue the trend of Steelers no touchdown score.

370
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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna do a no touchdown score bet. It's

371
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Speaker 1: around eighty to one, and I just think Aaron Rodgers

372
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Speaker 1: is just not going to be as efficient as he

373
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Speaker 1: was in Week one because the Seahawks, I think their

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Speaker 1: defense is legit, like they generated the most pressure of

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Speaker 1: all thirty two teams in Week one. And I think

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks too, I think they're gonna lean more into

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Speaker 1: the run game that's gonna eat up a ton of clock.

378
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Speaker 1: And I think the Steelers too, from an offensive standpoint,

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Speaker 1: They've already kind of conceded that if they within fifty yards,

380
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Speaker 1: they have no problem saying, oh, we didn't convert on

381
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 1: third down, let's just let Boswell kick it for three points.

382
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Speaker 1: So I think right now no touchdown would be my

383
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Speaker 1: favorite bet of that game. But if I did at

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Speaker 1: the bed in anytime touchdown, I think I would just

385
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Speaker 1: take Sam Donald honestly, because we just watched Justin Field's

386
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Speaker 1: run for two touchdowns against them last week. He's around

387
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Speaker 1: plus nine hundred. He did not look comfortable pushing the

388
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,920
Speaker 1: ball downfield at all. So and then of course the Seahawks,

389
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Speaker 1: I think again they're gonna lean more into that run

390
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Speaker 1: heavy approach. But right Now there's not a ton of

391
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Speaker 1: value on like Zach Sharboney or Kenneth Walker, like Charbo

392
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 1: at four to one, I like, but when he's down

393
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Speaker 1: to like plus two to fifty, it just doesn't feel

394
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Speaker 1: as good. So yeah, I just take Darnald at this price,

395
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Speaker 1: at nine to one, and just hope that he remembers

396
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Speaker 1: that he can run the ball.

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Speaker 7: There's always guy On just say yeah, always and and

398
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Speaker 7: oh guy Kenny g Kenny G's he's not about plus

399
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Speaker 7: two ninety Kenny Gainwell, the lead back to the Steelers,

400
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 7: and our guy Tory Horton.

401
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 2: Man, Jill, you're just you're like, you know, you hating

402
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Speaker 2: on our guys here.

403
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Speaker 1: I feel like I like Kenneth game well, but he

404
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,600
Speaker 1: was like a six to one when the odds opened up.

405
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 1: Now he's down around plus two to fifty, which.

406
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Speaker 2: Is oh, yeah, that's so he's getting steamed because.

407
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Speaker 1: He's gonna get the end war on two point Oh

408
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,159
Speaker 1: you don't take that stuff below plus three hundred.

409
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Speaker 2: At least that's on my book.

410
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,639
Speaker 4: Ah, man, I mean, you've been doing this long with me.

411
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Speaker 4: I'm not pretty sensitive at all when it comes to touchdowns.

412
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Speaker 2: So Kenny, she's getting in the end zone.

413
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 4: All right, Donald and no touchdown at eighty to one

414
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 4: and Donald at nine to one, all right, I mean, hey,

415
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Speaker 4: this is another another ugly one here, Rams at Titans.

416
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Speaker 2: I mean, maybe it would be fun, but I like

417
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Speaker 2: the touchdown for this game.

418
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Speaker 4: Rams Davis, I almost said, Dennis Allen, the coordinator of Bears,

419
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Speaker 4: Well Davis Allen touchdown scorer of last week. With surprise

420
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Speaker 4: that he played as much as he did. He was

421
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Speaker 4: the clear fourth tight end, the only tight end to play,

422
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Speaker 4: I believe in the preseason for the Rams until you know,

423
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 4: I think Ferguson played a little, but Higbean and Parkinson

424
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 4: really didn't didn't suit up as much. And yet there

425
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Speaker 4: Allen was fourth on the team in red zone snaps,

426
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Speaker 4: one of the two Rams to get a red zone target,

427
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Speaker 4: and he scored on it. And saw Parkinson pop up

428
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,399
Speaker 4: on the injury report this week. So I think Allen's

429
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 4: role may continue, you know, in the red zone that

430
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 4: seemed to be kind of his specialty, and Higbee had

431
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Speaker 4: a specific role and it wasn't really down there in

432
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Speaker 4: scoring positions. So like Allen at eight to one, you know,

433
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Speaker 4: we got to kind of get ahead of this potential.

434
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Speaker 4: You know four headed tight end Monster in the specific

435
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 4: usage year, and then on the other side you got

436
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 4: kind of a similar situation. Chigakonko played more snaps than

437
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 4: we usually see him play. I think he had a

438
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 4: route rate over eighty percent. However, rookie tight end gunner Helm,

439
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 4: who I get thirteen to one to score, led the

440
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 4: team in red zone snaps Online. He's tied for the

441
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 4: lead because a couple other guys got five, but Oconco

442
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 4: zero red zone snaps Helm five.

443
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: That was Helm's first game.

444
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 4: He has a rookie tight end, but he had a

445
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 4: very good preseason, very good camp. So both of these

446
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 4: teams are kind of using younger guys in place of

447
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 4: their vets in the red zone.

448
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 2: We'll see if that continues.

449
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,680
Speaker 4: You only have one week in data, but this could

450
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 4: be the most profitable time to buy in on these trends.

451
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 4: So love me some gunner Helm at thirteen to one,

452
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 4: I think this should be probably half that in terms

453
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 4: of his odds, So big big delta there.

454
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 2: But like like.

455
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 4: Holi a lot, and like him just going forward as well.

456
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 4: I think he's gonna kind of pop pop up and

457
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,959
Speaker 4: be more involved as the year goes ahead. But Broncos

458
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 4: at the Indianapolis coach Sean Kerner, another Daniel Jones spot

459
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 4: Bo Nicks. I told you we couldn't trust him in

460
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 4: cash games.

461
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 6: Thank god we didn't go that route. Holy smokes.

462
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, like, if I'm going to attack the Broncos here,

463
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 5: I'm going with Marvin Mimms at plus three fifty over

464
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,120
Speaker 5: at FanDuel. He had a you know, disappointing week one,

465
00:21:56,200 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 5: only three catches twelve yards. Very disappointing for him if

466
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 5: you're just going off in the final few games to

467
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 5: end last season. Was hoping that would kind of spill

468
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 5: over into this year, but it was sort of a

469
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 5: two three way committee behind Courtland Sutton at wide out

470
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 5: and you know Sean Peyton can mix things up any

471
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 5: given week, So I would imagine Mims would be the

472
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 5: more likely guy to see more snaps going forward. And

473
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 5: he's also the guy that you know they would scheme up,

474
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 5: you know, a design runner two. So it's an additional

475
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 5: path for him, you know, to find the end zone.

476
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 5: You know, the plus three fifty price. You know, they're

477
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 5: adjusting the rough week one. My projections are adjusting to

478
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 5: the rough week one, and I'm still getting him at

479
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 5: plus two to seventy, so I think he's offering some

480
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 5: value here and with the Colts, I got a guy.

481
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 5: I gotta go with the guy. I've been gusha melt

482
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 5: all week. He's already my top five. It's rookie Kyler

483
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 5: Warren at plus two sixty at FANDUL. You know, he

484
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 5: had one of the most impressive debuts of week one,

485
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,719
Speaker 5: and just that I can recall seven catches seventy six yards,

486
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,239
Speaker 5: had the underlying users to back it up. I think

487
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 5: he's gonna be a stud right out of the gate here.

488
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 5: And he nearly had a touchdown on end zone target

489
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,239
Speaker 5: that he almost made an amazing one handed catch. It

490
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 5: wasn't really his fault or Daniel Jones fault, but he's

491
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 5: getting in zone targets already. Love his price here. He

492
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 5: also had you know, one carry for three yards. They

493
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 5: used him in short yard situations at Penn State. Not

494
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 5: saying they need to do that with Jonathan Taylor and

495
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 5: Daniel Jones here, but you never know. It's just another

496
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 5: path for him in this market. So I like him

497
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 5: at plus two sixty here.

498
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, Tyler Warren looked really good in week one and

499
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 4: seven catches. I mean, he's only a matter of time

500
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 4: before he gets in the end zone.

501
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 2: Sean, what puck did you get Tyler Warren at? Again?

502
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 2: Sorry that fandul okay, because I.

503
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: Think I'm seeing a bit three ten right now at

504
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 1: bet three six points. Sorry, but I mean just more

505
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 1: thou Tyler Warren.

506
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, So.

507
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: I just wanted to make sure if anybody was looking

508
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 1: to get on Tyler Warren because I bet him myself.

509
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 2: If you can get him over three to one, that's amazing.

510
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 6: Ones yep, agreed, all right.

511
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 2: Panthers at the Cardinals, Jill, who you got? Yeah, this

512
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 2: one's rough.

513
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 1: I went with both quarterbacks. I took Kyler Murray and

514
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: Bryce Young. Kyler Murray he ran seven times in Week one.

515
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 1: He had three design scrambles, which I liked. And I

516
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to see a lot of pass

517
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: rush from the Panthers because the Saints they were top

518
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: five and pressure rate per drop back. They were pretty

519
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 1: much in his face pretty much the whole game. Whereas

520
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 1: this Panthers run devents too. It did not look good

521
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 1: in the opener, over two hundred yards allowed to the Jags,

522
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: and I know that they kind of kept Trevor Lawrence

523
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: mostly in check. From a passing standpoint, I think a

524
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 1: lot of that was more of the start and stop

525
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: because of that delay. I don't really want to take

526
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,719
Speaker 1: too much away from that, but I just think that

527
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,439
Speaker 1: if the Cardinals get inside the five yard line, the

528
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 1: Panthers they're gonna panic and they're gonna try to cover

529
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Junior and Trey McBride. I could easily see

530
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 1: Kyler just doing one of those jog scampers where he

531
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: just casually walks into the end zone. And Bryce Young.

532
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: I just think from a Panthers standpoint, I think Young

533
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 1: is really the only choice you can make this passing game.

534
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 1: I'm not taking Ted McMillan a less than plus two hundred.

535
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 1: This gate passing looks anemic, man, and the run defense

536
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: isn't great either, So would not surprise me if the

537
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 1: Panthers are pretty much trailing for most of the game.

538
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 1: Bryce Young, he did have four scrambles in Week one.

539
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 1: A lot of that was from that Jaguars pass rush.

540
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have to scramble even more so.

541
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: He's around five to one to score in any time

542
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 1: touchdown and Kyler Murray is around plus two to thirty.

543
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually do like Ted this week. I looked

544
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: it up in number.

545
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 4: One Pick wide Receivers Week two, big touchdown week for

546
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 4: top thos, especially in the first half of the first round.

547
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 4: So like Hunter, Ted, that's those are guys I think

548
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 4: getting the iron zone this week. But Kyler and Bryce

549
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 4: Eagles at the Kansas City Chiefs rematch of the Super

550
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 4: Bowl A J. Brown Squeaky Wheel plus one eighty the

551
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 4: Axtu receiver for the Chargers, Cwent Johnson two touchdowns last week,

552
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 4: simple and then Kareem Hunt for the Kansas City Chiefs

553
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 4: plus two to seventy outside of the red zone for

554
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 4: Checko twenty seven snaps, Hunt nineteen inside the red zone,

555
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 4: Hunt four, Pachecko four so and Hunt four routes to

556
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 4: two in the red zone over Pachecko. And you know,

557
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 4: I saw some people kind of surprised that, you know,

558
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 4: Pachecko wasn't in there on some of the goal line

559
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 4: work and stuff like that. That's that's the usual thing

560
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 4: for the Chiefs. They don't really he's not been a

561
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 4: great goal line back, so we didn't really see much

562
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 4: of you know, actual runs down there.

563
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 2: But if they do.

564
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 4: I expected to be Kareem Hunt that we saw him

565
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 4: get the first crack at the goal on work in

566
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 4: the preseason address rehearsal game, even though Pachecko ended up

567
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 4: scoring coming back in uh So, Yeah, Kareem Hunt, I

568
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 4: think is undervalued for an anytime touchdown at plus to.

569
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: Seventy the NFL season. It's especially here and to.

570
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 4: Get the most out of the award waring Action app,

571
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 4: you want to be an Action Pro subscriber. Only Pro

572
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 4: subscribers get real time pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner,

573
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 4: Jill Golant, myself, the entire Action team. Plus you can

574
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 4: access our pro projections powered by Kerner and our predictive

575
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 4: analytics team.

576
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 2: And we've got a special offer.

577
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Speaker 4: Just go to Action network dot com slash Pro and

578
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,520
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579
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580
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Speaker 4: off an annual sub to Action Pro. So I don't

581
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,159
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582
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:17,040
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583
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,320
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584
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,760
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585
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Speaker 4: code Pod twenty to get twenty dollars off a year

586
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 4: of Action Pro. Also, Action is relaunching the Favorites podcast,

587
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,719
Speaker 4: which my guy Stucky. It's also got Brandon Kravitz and

588
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 4: Kendra middle To new episodes dropping every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday.

589
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 2: Go check them out.

590
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 4: Before we get into the Sunday Night and Monday Night,

591
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 4: we'll do an anytime touchdown for Parway Express, which you

592
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 4: can follow in the Action app. Just give me, give

593
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 4: me your guy, your favorite guy from this slate. Curner,

594
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with aeral Fan Junior at four to one.

595
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 2: Jill, I'm gonna go Kyler Murray plus two thirty. I'll

596
00:27:59,359 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 2: go to.

597
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 4: Ajbra at plus one point eighty. All right, so that

598
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 4: would be about plus forty five hundred if you Paraway

599
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 4: Fannin Junior, Kyler and aj Brown anytime touchdown, So check

600
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 4: it out and be sure to follow the Parway Express

601
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 4: account in the Action Network app.

602
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,119
Speaker 2: Now we'll get to the prime time games.

603
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 4: Got three this week doubleheader on Monday Night football, but

604
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 4: first Sunday Night football the Atlanta Falcons at the Minnesota

605
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 4: Vikings's Kerner, would you.

606
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 5: Like for the in this game, I'm gonna go Kyle

607
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 5: Pitts plus three ten at DraftKings. You know it's always

608
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 5: a running joke, but maybe this is their pits finally

609
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,479
Speaker 5: breaks out. He looked great in week one seven catches

610
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 5: fifty nine yards. He's still only twenty four, so I

611
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 5: mean there still is hope he can actually break out.

612
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 6: Has a ton of pass catching upside.

613
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 5: And you know both Drake London and Darnell Mooney are

614
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 5: dealing with shoulder injuries, so good spot, you know, for

615
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 5: him to step up, and I think in send him

616
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 5: here at plus three ten.

617
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it was just a shout out to my

618
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 4: guy Stucky. I was like, yeah, I'm betting the Falcons.

619
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 4: They don't need Mooney in week one. And then of

620
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 4: course Canaro Hodge just let's up touch a short touchdown

621
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 4: go right over his head and Casey Washington like another

622
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 4: short touchdown just gets popped right is he had to

623
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 4: catch the ball.

624
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 2: So just like of errors, you know, yeah, I knew

625
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: if we got to that point.

626
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 4: I took the Falcons again this week, but only because

627
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 4: you know they're over a field goal, so like I

628
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 4: who cannot.

629
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 6: Hurt me Hoover's record? Are you sure you want to

630
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 6: make that bet?

631
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 4: Hey, hey, hey, we got we got we got Romo.

632
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 4: Now we've got Parker Romo on the you know, ready

633
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 4: to go. They signed him this week, so hopefully one

634
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 4: can only hope.

635
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 2: But Jill, who do you liking this game? And then

636
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 2: I'll go as one as well, and we can part

637
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 2: with this one too.

638
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna add j J. McCarthy. He's around plus

639
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: four hundred. I just think the Falcons are going to

640
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: pose a bit of a different challenge in the red

641
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: zone than what the Bears were doing. And also another

642
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 1: reason why I like it is just the odds given

643
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: that Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason they're both around like

644
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: plus one fifty or lower, So I think they're still

645
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,239
Speaker 1: going to lean more into that rushing attack. And if

646
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: we can get JJ at four to one or better,

647
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: I'll add that one.

648
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, you know who I'm going with, Jill.

649
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 2: You might know two.

650
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 4: It's it's Jais. Oh yeah, it's Jayen plus four twenty

651
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 4: five draftings? Are you playing all the two wide sets?

652
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 4: He only had one catch and he shouldn't have had

653
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 4: it. It was bad, bad, bad defense. You're near the end

654
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 4: of the half. But he's a guy who is not

655
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 4: gonna be a high volume catcher of the football. He's

656
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 4: gonna be a high volume touchdown score. We saw that

657
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 4: last season about a half dozen times got in the

658
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 4: end zone there despite playing that third wide receiver role

659
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 4: for much of the season.

660
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 2: So like his I just think he's undervalue.

661
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 4: I don't think people realize he's still a full time

662
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 4: guy for another two weeks until Addison gets back, and

663
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 4: then we'll see how they give you up the snaps.

664
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 4: But if you paraway Pits at plus three ten McCarthy

665
00:30:55,840 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 4: at four to one, and at plus four twenty five,

666
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 4: you get a plus ten thousand, so under.

667
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 2: One, yeah, under one one hundred to one.

668
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 4: It's actually a little more than that if you can

669
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 4: get those if you get all those odds.

670
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a juicy one. We'll see how

671
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 2: it plays out, but I don't think it can lose.

672
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 4: It's you know, jam and Arrors got to get in

673
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 4: JJ McCarthy. I mean, come on, this is we're not

674
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 4: talking about young way Coop here. He's not involved in

675
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 4: So all right, two more games, doubleheader Monday night Football

676
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 4: Bucks at the Houston Texans, Curner starts.

677
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 5: Off Dalton Schultz plus two forty. Cad Stover really eight

678
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 5: into his usage quite a bit in week one, but

679
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 5: Stover also unfortunately broke his foot, so he's now on

680
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 5: the ir So this week, you know, Schultz is gonna

681
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 5: be much more of a full time tight end. So

682
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 5: I think it's a sneaky you know, time to buy

683
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 5: a low on him here at plus two forty.

684
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I looked it up when Stover was out a

685
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 4: couple of games down stretched last year. I think it

686
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 4: was with fifteen sixteen for the Texans. Don Schultz had

687
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 4: a ninety one percent route rate in one of the

688
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 4: games at eighty four percent in the other one. So

689
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 4: that's about eighty seven eighty seven point five in case

690
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 4: you want to do it all over under on his

691
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 4: route rate for this week. But yeah, that's that's a

692
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 4: big step up, about twenty five percent step up from

693
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 4: what he was in week one. Uh, Jill, you you're

694
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 4: going with the guy who gets routes. But I don't

695
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 4: know if Baker Mayfield knows he's out there sometimes.

696
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: Well, I think he's gonna have to look for him

697
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: because you don't want to play with those Texans corners,

698
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: like I don't want any part of Mike Evans or

699
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: a Mecca Buca in this game. And I think Kate

700
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: Aughton at plus three fifty is good for a bounce.

701
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: Back spot here.

702
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 1: And for what it's worth, Texans, they only allowed one

703
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: passing touchdown in Week one, who was a two It

704
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: was to a tight end, your guy, David Salland so

705
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Kate Auton here at plus three fifty.

706
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 4: All right, I'm gonna go back to the well with

707
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 4: the Jayden Higgins a rookie, and uh, he had a

708
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 4: kind of middling first game, Like he didn't He was

709
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:58,959
Speaker 4: I think fourth or fifth on the team in routes run.

710
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: Everyone was running between like forty and sixty percent.

711
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 4: Xavier Hutchinson and Justin Watson were mixing in just uh yeah,

712
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 4: a lot of Michael Bandy type guys in there.

713
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna I'm gonna go higas.

714
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,239
Speaker 4: He was one of three Texans to run multiple red

715
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 4: zone routes despite the middling snapcounts for all the receivers.

716
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 4: So I do think that's that makes sense as a

717
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 4: kind of specific role for him. If if he's not

718
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 4: ready to kind of get to be a full time player,

719
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 4: which they obviously don't think he is. So you know,

720
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 4: I think he's undervalued here just because you know, they're

721
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 4: kind of pricing him as if he's like that that

722
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 4: halftime player, which in the red zone he is running

723
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 4: all the routes ib leaus he has to date, so

724
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 4: and he has got he's got the body type to

725
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 4: come down one in in in the end zone. So

726
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 4: give me Higgins at plus three sixty, Parway Schultz to

727
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 4: forty out in at three fifty, and Higgins at three sixty,

728
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 4: you get plus seven thousand or seventy to one. So

729
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 4: this one, I mean not not as much of a

730
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 4: short thing as a one hundred to one up above

731
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 4: for that Sunday night game.

732
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 2: I'm just kidding. But let's see see if we.

733
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 4: Can get one of these Monday Night Part two Chargers

734
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 4: off some long rest going up against the want to

735
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 4: Know Vegas Raiders. So yet everyone's want to know in

736
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 4: the West except the Kansas City Chiefs.

737
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 2: This could be a pivotal game here. Current who you.

738
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 5: Got, I'm going justin Herbert at plus four seventy five.

739
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 5: The Chargers had the second highest pass rate over expected

740
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 5: in Week one, which means we're probably going to see

741
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 5: more Justin Herbert dropbacks going forward. That's kind of what

742
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 5: I was suspecting based on their second half usage of

743
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 5: him last season. And his scramble rate was way up,

744
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 5: up six percent in the first game of the season.

745
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 5: That combined with the higher dropback rates perfect for this market.

746
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 5: He's going to be more likely to run it in himself.

747
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 5: And you gotta imagine, you know, Madison beer probably has

748
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 5: them feel little more frisky in spry right now, So

749
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 5: maybe that that's why the scramble rate's up. But love

750
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 5: Herbert here at plus four seventy five, Joe.

751
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: Can you match Herbert's frisky and spryness with your fa I.

752
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: Mean, Quentin Johnson looked pretty frisky in Week one, you know,

753
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: and the fact that it didn't really drop too much,

754
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: like two touchdowns in week one plus three fifty now

755
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 1: we're around plus two eighty. I thought he was electric

756
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: in that game. And another pretty solid matchup for Week

757
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: two versus the Raiders with Pete Carroll, they kind of

758
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: lean more into that zone approach played at fourth highest

759
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 1: rate last year. Quinton Johnson, he led the NFL with

760
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: eight receiving touchdowns versus zone So for me, I think

761
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: there's a lot of upside here for Quinton Johnston at

762
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 1: plus two to eighty, Yeah, he would great.

763
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 2: Like in fantasy, I'm selling him.

764
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 4: But right now, yeah, like his touchdown rate is probably

765
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 4: undervalue because I don't think the market expected him to

766
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 4: be a ninety percent route kind of guy, and that's.

767
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 2: What he was.

768
00:35:55,480 --> 00:36:01,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, alright, speaking of Snapcown, I gotta go with Ashton

769
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 4: genty minus won twenty one of eight players to get

770
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 4: one hundred percent of his team's red zone carries in

771
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 4: Week one play a ten of steps at running back.

772
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: The yard for carry wasn't there.

773
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 4: It was even it was below the Javante three point

774
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 4: six Mendoza line. Yeah, but yeah, that's probably I mean,

775
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 4: most people probably don't even know the Mendoza one.

776
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 2: I don't even know which who is the Mendoza. I

777
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: don't even know who Mendoza.

778
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 5: It's some guy mendo I forgot his first name, but

779
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 5: he hit lifetime averages two hundred.

780
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, well Mario Mendoza. Yeah that's yeah, there you go.

781
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 2: This is this is some boomer shit, all right.

782
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 4: Anyway, Javonte Williams will one day be some some millennial shit.

783
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 4: It was his three point six, but yeah, I digress,

784
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 4: Ashton Gent, he's gonna get all the carries down in there.

785
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 4: I still think you could run on the Chargers. The Chiefs,

786
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 4: I mean they running gave us a joke, so we

787
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 4: did really see that play out. But the Chiefs also

788
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 4: don't really throw down, I mean don't really run down

789
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 4: in the red zone, which I think the Raiders with

790
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 4: Kelly and Carol more likely to do. They'll swim ashal

791
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 4: genty against the wall until he gets in there again.

792
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 4: So like him at minus one twenty, I could see

793
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 4: him be in one of those like minus you know,

794
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 4: one eighty minus two hundred guys by the time the

795
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 4: season's all sett and done up there with McAffrey and

796
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 4: Taylor because every who like it's who else is? The

797
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 4: Raiders had three hundred and sixty two yards of passing offense,

798
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 4: and did they like who who got in the end

799
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 4: zone for them in the receiving game? Like the only

800
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 4: guy is like all these yards and not many touchdowns there,

801
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 4: so I gotta go, yeah, we know I know the guy.

802
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 2: I know Sho. It was Tray Tucker.

803
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 4: But that is the point all these receiving yards and

804
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 4: Trey Tucker is the one guy so rushing yards. Asca

805
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 4: genty had like thirty eight yards and he got in it.

806
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 4: He got in the end zones, and I think that

807
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 4: that kind of used. It continues the parlay Herbert at

808
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 4: plus four seventy five, Johnson at plus two eighty genty

809
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 4: and minus one twenty get around.

810
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: A forty to one three way parlay.

811
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 4: And as I mentioned well these touchdown part was to

812
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 4: the Parway Express account in the action as well, So

813
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 4: be sure to follow Parlay Express.

814
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,240
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815
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,439
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816
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:11,239
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817
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818
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819
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,160
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823
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 4: two touchdown show. Many thanks to Sean Kerner and Jill Gallant.

824
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 2: If you want to.

825
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,959
Speaker 4: Kale some of the touchdown bets. One of the touchdown.

826
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 2: Bets, all the touchdown bets we discussed today.

827
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,399
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828
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,359
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839
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840
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841
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842
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Speaker 4: that three.

843
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:28,359
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844
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,680
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845
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,640
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847
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849
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,160
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850
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:59,399
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851
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:04,000
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852
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,240
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