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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen. It's bowl season.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to stays the bold with my TV

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Speaker 2: gets to me the best college games you've ever seen,

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Speaker 2: the first something else like bold that you'll like to see, tails,

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Speaker 2: sweeping quarterbacks, of throwing head coaches, straining Brady wise Man

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Speaker 2: two overginal Fans, football beast.

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Speaker 3: It's the best week one boy, and the kick is

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Speaker 3: black the college football world standard.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he's stumble the football.

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Speaker 3: The lateral to the corner of the job. Get you

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Speaker 3: the la table off the fail to night.

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Speaker 4: It's not the sage of the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 4: it's the sage of the.

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Speaker 1: Fight in the.

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Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? Welcome to Big Bets on

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Speaker 4: Campus podcast. This is the College Football Bowl Betting Preview,

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Speaker 4: Part two. I'm Stucky in with me as always is

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Speaker 4: Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 3: We have seven games we'll cover in this preview all

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Speaker 3: the way through Christmas on Saturday, December twenty fifth, which

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Speaker 3: is the chamellea Boy I believe between Ball State and

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Speaker 3: Georgia States. Will cover seven bowls here and then we'll

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Speaker 3: obviously have another Bowl betting preview for the next set

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Speaker 3: of bowl games, and then a fourth for the games

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Speaker 3: through New Year's even New Year's Day, and then we'll

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Speaker 3: have a live show. Colin will be in Vegas for

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Speaker 3: the National Championship, but all of your bowls will be

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Speaker 3: covered through Christmas on this episode. Appreciate you listening as always, Colin,

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Speaker 3: what's going on?

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Speaker 1: Things haven't changed, even though the coach that will not

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Speaker 1: be named is left town. Louisiana is still dipping into

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Speaker 1: my pockets and taking money out of out of my wallet.

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Speaker 1: Scared money, don't make money.

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Speaker 3: You know, an awful Friday. It's all the ball trolls

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Speaker 3: came out. That's always gonna happen. Ye, Toledo just no show.

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Speaker 3: I mean if you look these first couple of balls.

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Speaker 3: Then we talked about it and I thought Toledo would care,

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Speaker 3: but they didn't and they completely no should I probably

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Speaker 3: should have. I could have potentially middled myself. And I

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Speaker 3: probably should have bet Middle Tennessee for the second half,

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Speaker 3: basically just on what I what I saw in the

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Speaker 3: first half. A lot of times these teams you could

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Speaker 3: tell on the sidelines, you can tell with the motion

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Speaker 3: at their big plays. Also, like the false starts procedural penalties.

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Speaker 3: I think they signal like a lack of focus, you

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Speaker 3: get dumb personal fouls. Good call on Coastal, the team

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Speaker 3: total because I faded Northern Illinois again. Uh to novail,

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Speaker 3: but at least that that got home for us. And

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Speaker 3: then I got teased at the end with a potential

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Speaker 3: Belk Bowl play, but the Coastal guy decided to tackle

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Speaker 3: zone player even the game was nowhere close to over,

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Speaker 3: and Northern Illinois up getting the ball back and gets

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Speaker 3: all the way down of the goal line, and then

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Speaker 3: the rest completely boxed the end of the game. And

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Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, everyone was just like, all

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Speaker 3: right cool when they were hugging because it's an exhibition game.

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Speaker 3: But the MAC issued a stated saying like this is

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Speaker 3: messed up. But I don't think that was That was

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Speaker 3: wild and Saturday was very good for me UAB, Liberty, UTAP,

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Speaker 3: Western Kentucky. I do gotta give you a shit about

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Speaker 3: back in Chase Bryce. I'm over, Bailey ZAPPI Bailey Zappy.

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Speaker 3: It's time to move on because who cares about what happened.

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Speaker 3: We need to find winners for the remaining balls. He

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Speaker 3: has seven to get to. Let's start on Tuesday, December

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Speaker 3: twenty first with the famous Idaho Potato Bowl three point

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Speaker 3: thirty eastern on ESPN. You gotta love it. Another weekday

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Speaker 3: afternoon bowl game between Kent State and Wyoming. Wyoming is

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Speaker 3: a three point favorite here over under fifty seven. This

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Speaker 3: is what I like to refer to as the Turtle

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Speaker 3: versus the Hair Bowl. Hey, Kent State wants to flash fast,

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Speaker 3: go as fast as possible their top five an adjusted pace.

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Speaker 3: Wyoming wants to play a lot slower ninety third in

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Speaker 3: adjusted pace. The hair usually wins out slower team, but

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Speaker 3: that's in the fable about life. Well, that happened here

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Speaker 3: in this bowl game. Craig Bowl, by the way, two

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Speaker 3: and one in bowls, he won the last two in

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Speaker 3: twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. Kent State got their first

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Speaker 3: ever Program Bowl went back in twenty nineteen when they

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Speaker 3: won fifty one to forty one over another Mountain West team,

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Speaker 3: Utah State. It is worth noting that Wyoming does have

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Speaker 3: familiarity with this venue, right they play in the Mountain West.

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Speaker 3: They play in Boise State. Some elevation in Boise State

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Speaker 3: as well. Wyoming's familiar with elevation, so I'm also I

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Speaker 3: would assume that you'd have more of a home contingent

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Speaker 3: of Wyoming fans than Kent State fans. Here. I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure you're going to get huge crowds for some of

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Speaker 3: these week day Bold games early on. As we've seen,

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Speaker 3: and you know where these two teams are similar. They

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Speaker 3: both want to run the ball. They're both top twenty

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Speaker 3: five in RuSHA Champs per game. However, Camp wants to

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Speaker 3: play super fast and Wyoming wants to play slow. As

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Speaker 3: I said, so here's the question. I think that Number one,

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Speaker 3: when you look at this game, you break down Wyomie's defense,

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Speaker 3: they haven't been as great against the run as they

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Speaker 3: usually are. So kN Kent have success running the ball

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Speaker 3: with crom their quarterback. You know Marcus Cooper and Xavier Williams,

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Speaker 3: who combined for over twenty five hundred years of the ground.

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Speaker 3: I think they can Woming run defense one hundredth and

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Speaker 3: line yards one hundred and twenty second and stuff rate

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Speaker 3: ninetieth and sacerd. They're not even getting too the quarterback

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Speaker 3: secondary is their most talented unit. Woming does an excellent

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Speaker 3: job of preventing explosives across the board, so that's something

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Speaker 3: to keep in mind here. Kent wants to score really fast,

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Speaker 3: but I think ken will have some success running it.

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Speaker 3: Their offensive line's been good in that department, but it'll

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Speaker 3: be weakness on weakness when Wyoming has the ball. Wyoming,

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Speaker 3: I mean Kent State's defenses I refer to as poverty.

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Speaker 3: There's no good stats, right. They have some talent the secondary,

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Speaker 3: but it hasn't translated to success. But Wyoming can't pass

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Speaker 3: the ball. They do want to run. They run it

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Speaker 3: on sixty seven percent of standard downs, which is top

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Speaker 3: twenty nation. Can Kent State just load the boxer? I

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Speaker 3: mean they haven't been able to stop anybody on the ground.

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Speaker 3: It's also where doning two bad special teams. Kent State

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Speaker 3: I talk about all the time can't kick the ball off,

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Speaker 3: so after they do score, the opposing team starts with

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Speaker 3: a really good field position, which has played into some

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Speaker 3: of their overs this year. I'm leaning towards Kent State here.

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Speaker 3: For me, I make this closer to a coin flip

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Speaker 3: to getting the three points. With the quarterback that I

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Speaker 3: trust a lot more to make plays might be the difference.

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Speaker 3: But I can kN State get any stops on the

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Speaker 3: ground because in a bowl game, if you could just

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Speaker 3: hand it off and then methodically march up and down

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Speaker 3: the field. That might be all it takes. What do

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Speaker 3: you see here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if you're keeping tabs, the MAC hasn't

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Speaker 1: won a bowl game yet, and you know, only the

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Speaker 1: champions of Northern Illinois have even covered. So now you're

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Speaker 1: going to get a team that lost the MAC championship

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Speaker 1: and has spread that I think is a bit short.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we certainly have two different ideologies of how

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Speaker 1: to run an offense. Kent third fastest in the nation.

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Speaker 1: You talked about it, but they're also number one in

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Speaker 1: the nation and standard down success rate, so they moved

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Speaker 1: the chains a ton. But Wyoming's offense is ninety fourth

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Speaker 1: and tempo. You mentioned they're slow, and so who's gonna

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Speaker 1: win out on this? And their offensive ranks? I mean,

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Speaker 1: even though that they like to run the ball more

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Speaker 1: than they like to pass, are still outside the top

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Speaker 1: forty and their respected run numbers. This is a Cowboys

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Speaker 1: team to beat Northern Illinois. Now, I know it was

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Speaker 1: Week three in September and it was fifty to forty three.

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Speaker 1: Sean Chambers was a quarterback. It wasn't Levi Williams, but

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Speaker 1: North Illinois posted five rushing touchdowns on this great you

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Speaker 1: know Wyoming defense, and you know Rocky Lombardi had to

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Speaker 1: pick six. He had another I int that spotted Wyoming

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Speaker 1: field position at the fourteen one dry at one play

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Speaker 1: later they scored a touchdown. So really it was more

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Speaker 1: of Northern Illinois taking themselves out of that Wyoming game

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Speaker 1: than Wyoming beating them. And you look at that final score,

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Speaker 1: like ninety three points in a Wyoming game, you have

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Speaker 1: to ask, is Kin State going to try to run

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Speaker 1: that same plan? So you know, Wyoming should have massed

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Speaker 1: the ton of yards here and a lot of scoring

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Speaker 1: opportunities because you mentioned all those bad things about kN

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Speaker 1: State outside the top one hundred and everything, most importantly

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteenth in defensive finishing drives one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty six and passing down success right, which means

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Speaker 1: even if they do get Wyoming off schedule, they're going

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Speaker 1: to allow them to convert some third downs. I think

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Speaker 1: the question is whether this is a shootout?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 1: The number on the side I make four and a half,

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Speaker 1: So a little bit of a lean on Wyoming, not

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Speaker 1: enough for me to like throw some money over the

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Speaker 1: counter and be like this I feel confident about this,

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Speaker 1: but you know, Wyoming having a linebacker Chad Muma elect

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Speaker 1: to play this game top tackler was really important. And

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Speaker 1: this Wyoming defense here's what bothers me. They just allowed

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Speaker 1: four hundred ninety yards in a loss to Hawaii with

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Speaker 1: a roster full of players that hated their head coach

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Speaker 1: at home. Hawaii left the island, went to like what

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Speaker 1: over five thousand feet of elevation and put up burner

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Speaker 1: ninety yards. So you know, Wyoming's not that great against

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Speaker 1: the rush and they won't take the ball away from

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Speaker 1: flash fast. They're one hundred and fifteenth in havoc, but

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Speaker 1: you know they are top twenty five in defensive finishing drives,

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Speaker 1: which puts a little tinker into what I want to do.

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Speaker 1: I want to overrun this game. I know Wyoming is slow,

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Speaker 1: but the fact they're gonna.

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Speaker 3: Have a good field position too. Yet to remember that. So, like,

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Speaker 3: even know they're slow at their Kent State scores, they

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Speaker 3: can't kick it off. So then teams so you know,

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Speaker 3: starting like the thirty five to forty forty five, which

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Speaker 3: is what teams do against them that you know that

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Speaker 3: takes away two first downs and like three to four

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Speaker 3: minutes that would have came off the clock for a

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Speaker 3: team like Wyoming to get there. So that's an important

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Speaker 3: part of this.

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Speaker 1: Well. I projected at fifty eight, so there's nothing in

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Speaker 1: the number that says, you know in fifty nine is key.

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Speaker 1: So when you're out there doing your shop and you're

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Speaker 1: listening to this, there are a couple of sub fifty

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Speaker 1: nine's out there, but one sharp shop. I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: his fifty nine and a half. So I better hop

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Speaker 1: on this by the end of the podcast tonight. But

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Speaker 1: for me that I go back to the Northern Illinois

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Speaker 1: game in the fact there was ninety three points, or

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Speaker 1: the fact that Hawaii just came in last game and

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Speaker 1: put up fourner ninety yards. I think I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: over here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would lean over to and as I mention

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Speaker 3: before Wyman did play Appoisy State, I think like a

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Speaker 3: month ago. So there's got from a motivational aspect, I

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Speaker 3: don't know I could see the argument for why both

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Speaker 3: would be flat. So I don't think there's a motivational

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Speaker 3: edge here. Like Kent State was going for their first

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Speaker 3: MAC Conference championship, they were, you know, favored in that game.

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Speaker 3: And they lost it. Like, are they deflated after that?

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Speaker 3: Or are they excited to go to a bowl? They

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Speaker 3: already got their first program Bowl when I'm not sure

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Speaker 3: where they're at mentally. But Wyoming, you know, I finished

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Speaker 3: six and six, but they get blown out in their

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Speaker 3: home finale. Are they that excited to go play again

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Speaker 3: in Boise to face a MAC team? I don't know.

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Speaker 3: So I don't think that there's a clear case for

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Speaker 3: either one. But I wouldn't be shocked if one of

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Speaker 3: these teams came out a little flat. I just you're

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Speaker 3: flipping a coin to is trying to determine that somotivational angle.

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Speaker 3: I don't see anything. I think I'm gonna end up

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Speaker 3: taking the three points there, just because this Wyoming defense

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Speaker 3: they've had some bizarre results. I mean, going to Utah

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Speaker 3: State and winning by you know, forty four to seventeen.

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Speaker 3: Then they come home and then lose to Hawaii. But

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Speaker 3: I just ultimately, at the end of the day, you

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Speaker 3: would trust Crumb a lot more at quarterback than I

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Speaker 3: do Levi Williams. It's just the Kent State Rundy that

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Speaker 3: scares me. But getting that field goal in my back

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Speaker 3: pocket again where two teams. Neither have been good in

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Speaker 3: special teams, and Kent State's been really bad. Matt to

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Speaker 3: Born so is Wyoming, So that you know, advantage that

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Speaker 3: opponents usually have over Kent State doesn't really exist here.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move on. Make sure you check out

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Speaker 3: the Action Network cap, by the way to see what

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Speaker 3: we do end up playing. Let's move on to our

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Speaker 3: second bowl game here, and that is on Tuesday as

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Speaker 3: well well, Tuesday night, seven thirty eastern on ESPN, we

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Speaker 3: have the Frisco Bowl between eleven and two San Diego

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Speaker 3: State and twelve and one UTSA. UTSA was a favorite here.

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Speaker 3: This line is since since flipped and they are now

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Speaker 3: a two and a half point dog. Part of that,

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Speaker 3: I would imagine is since here McCormick, their star running back,

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Speaker 3: has been announced that he will not play over under

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Speaker 3: here is forty nine in Frisco, Texas. UTSA, by the way,

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Speaker 3: has never won a Bowl. They lost in twenty sixteen

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Speaker 3: and in twenty twenty. San Diego State meanwhile, is nine

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Speaker 3: to nine new bowl games. They didn't have one last year.

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Speaker 3: They won their last appearance in twenty nineteen. So McCormick's

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Speaker 3: obviously one of their storylines going into this game. But

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Speaker 3: if you look at some of the advanced metrics, UTSA

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Speaker 3: has actually been a little better passing the ball than

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Speaker 3: they have running, which has been which was a surprise

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Speaker 3: coming into the year. But their passing game has been

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Speaker 3: a lot better than I thought it might be. So,

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Speaker 3: and you can't really run on San Diego State, like

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Speaker 3: no one can run on San Diego State. And that defense,

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Speaker 3: which has I mean, their defensive line is incredible, devags

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Speaker 3: up nothing in the middle, just eats blockers. You can't

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Speaker 3: run on them at all. The question is can UTSA

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Speaker 3: have success through the air against San Diego State and

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Speaker 3: a secondary that lost three pros last year? Has talent,

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Speaker 3: got to play a very easy schedule and then had

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Speaker 3: games where you said, oh, look they're vulnerable. Right the

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Speaker 3: Fresno State game secondary kind of got picked apart. Nevada

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Speaker 3: did some things through the air and they were playing

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Speaker 3: without Cole Turner, their star tight end, and then Utah

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Speaker 3: State in the conference championship game really tore through them.

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Speaker 3: So can UTSA have success to the air on the

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Speaker 3: other side of the ball? UTSA, We've talked about it,

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Speaker 3: their weaknesses and their secondary. Can this San Diego State offense,

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Speaker 3: which has just been horrifying. They just don't have a

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Speaker 3: lot of talent on the outside take advantage. That's the

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Speaker 3: handicap in my opinion. What are you seeing here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was kind of a delayed move on that

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Speaker 1: number because the sincere McCormick goves out for a while

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Speaker 1: and then it flipped in one half to two. I

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Speaker 1: didn't understand what the delay and I've been on a

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Speaker 1: mad search last twenty four hours to figure out why

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Speaker 1: this took so long.

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Speaker 3: No, here, to be fair, it's not a huge move, right,

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Speaker 3: You're not going to be key numbers, but still it's three,

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Speaker 3: three and a half points.

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Speaker 1: It's moved well for San Diego State and the way

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Speaker 1: their games have gone this year, you need every point.

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Speaker 3: That's that's a huge move in the San Diego taken.

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Speaker 1: If you're into trends, UTSA is five and one to

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Speaker 1: the over away from home. They're five and one against

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Speaker 1: the spread away from home, so they're very comfortable being

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Speaker 1: outside of the Alaba Dome. But starting with San Diego State,

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Speaker 1: I mean they were missing up to twenty players with

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Speaker 1: cod COVID for the Mountain West Championship game and where

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Speaker 1: they just got routed by Utah State. And I'm not

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Speaker 1: really sure how much stock I put into that if

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Speaker 1: they would have had their twenty players, considering the Aggies

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Speaker 1: are just you know, blowing everybody away, including Oregon States.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not sure I would have made a difference

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Speaker 1: they had. You know, COVID problems are not.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so there was a ton of tight ends and

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Speaker 3: it's an all it relies on a lot of tight ends.

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Speaker 1: And now Lucas Johnson is actually on the injury report

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Speaker 1: is questionable. I think he's available to play, but it'll

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Speaker 1: be come We'll talk about him in Brookshire here. But

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Speaker 1: you know, UTCA has survived the late Bailey's appy running

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Speaker 1: the Conference USA championship. You know, if you would have

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Speaker 1: put another five minutes on that game clock, or if

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Speaker 1: you to you know, turn those field goals into actual

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Speaker 1: shots at the end zone or the snapping mistakes away

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Speaker 1: from the Hilltoppers, they probably would be champions of Conference USA.

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Speaker 1: You know, like you said, the big news is Sincere

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Speaker 1: McCormick opting out of the NFL Draft, you're losing a

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Speaker 1: guy that has thirty nine hundred career yards one hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty six misstackles in his career as a roadrunner.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if UTSA is going to lean on

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Speaker 1: Brendan Brady and BJ Daniels. Bj Daniels has been out

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Speaker 1: for the last couple of games. Brendan Brady, there's no

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Speaker 1: explosiveness there whatsoever. They've combined for only four hundred yards

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Speaker 1: on eighty two rushing attempts this season. So is UTSA

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Speaker 1: going to maintain this rush rate that they've had now

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Speaker 1: that McCormick is not there, or is this going to

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Speaker 1: be the Frank Harris arms and legs show, which I

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Speaker 1: think it is, and he cap this game. If you're UTSA,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna do what Utah State did, and that is

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Speaker 1: you're gonna throw short to medium routes. They didn't test

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Speaker 1: the secondary once because they hit the linebacker unit. They

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Speaker 1: hit right over the middle or where the defensive line is,

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Speaker 1: and they sliced them up with crossovers all day. So

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Speaker 1: when you look into Frank Harris's advanced stats, and I

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Speaker 1: was just amazed by this. If you look at all

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Speaker 1: of his passing grids beyond twenty, beyond ten behind the

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Speaker 1: line of scrimmage from zero to nine yards and in

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Speaker 1: between the hash marks are thirty nine percent of Frank

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Speaker 1: Harris's attempts passing attempts. That's exactly where Utah State sliced

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Speaker 1: up San Diego State. So, in my opinion, we're not

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Speaker 1: running much anymore. We're gonna come off of this what

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Speaker 1: fifty seven percent rush rate because we don't have Sincere McCormick,

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Speaker 1: Frank Harris has fumbled the ball eight times in the

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Speaker 1: last three games. On running attempts, Trailer Jeff Trailer he

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Speaker 1: CoA chef. Trailer might just cut him off from running.

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Speaker 1: I could see a game where UTSA is like, we're throwing.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be short throws, but we're throwing. Then the

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Speaker 1: question on San Diego State is that Jordan Brookshire, Lucas Johnson.

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Speaker 1: The answer seems to be that Brady hook is going

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Speaker 1: to play both try to find the hot hand who

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Speaker 1: looks good going into the game. The Aztecs run more

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Speaker 1: than sixty percent of snaps, but they get stuffed on

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Speaker 1: five percent more than national average. And I love Greg Bell,

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Speaker 1: but there's just a you know I did. I was

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Speaker 1: a little shocked at how often they are stuffed when

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Speaker 1: that is what they want to do. Is run the ball.

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Speaker 1: So you know I make this game. I did make

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Speaker 1: the game right in line with the market before the

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Speaker 1: sincere McCormick news took it off. I don't think it

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Speaker 1: should be that big of a move. I also have

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Speaker 1: the game projected at about fifty one, which is over

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Speaker 1: the post total right now of forty nine. I'm a

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Speaker 1: little nervous, you know, I am. I have been for

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Speaker 1: two years taking it over with this San Diego State team.

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Speaker 1: But if UTSA, whose plays per game tempo right now

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Speaker 1: is thirty fourth, is going to go all past with

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Speaker 1: Frank Harris, limit his running because he's fumbled day times

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Speaker 1: in the last three games, and pull a Utah State

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Speaker 1: and hit the crosses over the middle, this game is

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Speaker 1: going to go over because I have seen San Diego

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Speaker 1: State pull up tempo and Jordan brooksh and and you

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Speaker 1: know Louise Johnson just take off from the pocket and

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Speaker 1: start hitting guys all over the place or taking off running.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to take an over forty nine keys

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Speaker 1: that is key is forty eight. I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: an over forty nine in this game.

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Speaker 3: Along with the case for San Diego State over as

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Speaker 3: predictable as pie sound the cloud noise as techovers, I'm

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Speaker 3: starting to lean towards San Diego State here. I just

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Speaker 3: am having trouble, Like I just am not a believer

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Speaker 3: in UTSA and you've known that. And yes they beat

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Speaker 3: Western Kentucky, but I mean, how many flukey plays went

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Speaker 3: their way with the snaps over the head, the muffed punt.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I could go on and on the drop tuck,

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Speaker 3: wide open drop touchdown. You know, he loose sence here, McCormick,

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Speaker 3: But I don't think that that's a huge loss here,

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Speaker 3: And you're going to get to the San Diego State defense.

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Speaker 3: It's number four in rush success. They are number four

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Speaker 3: in yards per rush. This is a number eight and

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Speaker 3: explosive rush. I mean, you go on, this is Santa City.

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Speaker 3: That's every year elite rush defense numbers so but then

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Speaker 3: their secondary grades out well, but they think the competition

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Speaker 3: wasn't great for most of the year, and so I

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Speaker 3: just I'm having trouble trying to determine, Okay, is uts

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Speaker 3: SE gonna have success throwing the ball here? And the

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Speaker 3: other statistical piece that I struggle with, the biggest weakness

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Speaker 3: of the UTSA defense is their explosive pass defense. We've

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Speaker 3: talked about it, right, they give a lot of explosive

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Speaker 3: pass plays. They're outside the top one hundred explosive past percentage,

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Speaker 3: they're outside the top one hundred yards per pass allowed. Well,

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Speaker 3: San Diego State one hundred and nineteenth in yards per

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Speaker 3: pass and one hundred and twenty sixth in explosive pass right,

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Speaker 3: So are they going to be able to hit the

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Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty thirty peaper pass it gives? Can't

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Speaker 3: throw the ball, so are they going to be able

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Speaker 3: to hit some of these explosives? That's the question.

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Speaker 1: Just over, come on, come on, hit the take the

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Speaker 1: over with me. Let's do it.

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Speaker 3: I'll I'll have to sleep on it. I think I

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Speaker 3: would have a lot more fun if I didn't. And

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Speaker 3: then control you right now, control on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: You'll be living free in my head during the entire

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Speaker 1: game on Twitter.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, every Bowl game is going over, so so we

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Speaker 3: know that one has no chance. All right, let's move

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Speaker 3: on to Wednesday and talk the Armed Forces Bowl between

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Speaker 3: eight and four Army and six and six Missouri. Missouri

412
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Speaker 3: is a four point underdog here over under fifty seven.

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Speaker 3: This game's at eight eastern on ESPN in Fort Worth, Texas.

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Speaker 3: Missouri has lost their last two ball appearances in twenty

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Speaker 3: seventeen and twenty eighteen. Last year, their bowl was canceled.

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Speaker 3: Eli drickk Woitz actually has never coached in a bowl.

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Speaker 3: He was he left before the app State Bowl game,

418
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Speaker 3: didn't coach them in that bowl, and then last year's

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Speaker 3: was canceled. There are some trends out there that do

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Speaker 3: favor coaches which have a lot more experienced coaching bowls,

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Speaker 3: and I think that that just speaks to all. Right,

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Speaker 3: over time, you learn how to best prepare your team

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Speaker 3: for a ball, keep them focused, you know, not overwork them,

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Speaker 3: not underwork them, deal with all of the distractions, et cetera,

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Speaker 3: et cetera. So Jeff bulk In, the Army head coach,

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Speaker 3: obviously has a big experience advantage here coaching in bowls.

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Speaker 3: Army six and three in bowls. They did lose last

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Speaker 3: year to West Virginia in a really close game they

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Speaker 3: obviously covered, and they won their previous four before that,

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Speaker 3: and three of them came at this exact bowl game

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Speaker 3: in the Armed Forces Bowl. And I'll talk about it

432
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 3: every year. I'm already on Army minus three. I like

433
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 3: him up to minus four, which is where the line

434
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 3: is right now. I would lean under as well. But

435
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 3: service academies in bowl games, motivation is half half the

436
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,880
Speaker 3: battle is motivation. You know that Service academies, no matter

437
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 3: the place, no matter the time, they're always going to

438
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 3: show up. You can always rely on that. And here's

439
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 3: the stat to back that up. Since nineteen eighty. Since

440
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 3: nineteen eighty, service academies are thirty seven and fourteen against

441
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 3: the spread. Thirty seven and fourteen. That's seventy two and

442
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:33,959
Speaker 3: a half percent. And how about teams with a win

443
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 3: percentage of over sixty five percent, which Army does have

444
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 3: twenty four and four against the spread. I mean, just

445
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 3: silly numbers. So we know that. Yeahs mizouriganna show up

446
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 3: at six and six. I don't know. The motivation questions

447
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 3: are all on Missouri sides. You have that working in

448
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 3: your favor as well. Tyler Bady is going to play

449
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 3: in the bowl game for Missouri. He's been their star

450
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: running back. He's been their entire offense. Connor basicly, he

451
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,359
Speaker 3: he looked pretty good last year. At times, he's had

452
00:20:58,359 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 3: an awful year. I don't know if he's still hurt,

453
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 3: but as a result said that there's gonna be an

454
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 3: open competition of quarterbacks. Who knows who's going to be

455
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,640
Speaker 3: back there behind center if they're gonna be rotating guys,

456
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: So motivation check mark for Army potential advantage and from

457
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 3: a matchup perspective, I love it for Army ready. I

458
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 3: mean Army's defense. Their biggest weakness is defending explosive pass plays.

459
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 3: Go back to that Wake Forest game. It was just

460
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 3: eighty yard touchdown. Their eighty yard touchdown. They're outside of

461
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 3: the top one hundred in defending pass exposiveness. Well, Missouri's

462
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 3: bottom ten nationally on offense in that department. This is

463
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,880
Speaker 3: an SEC team without SEC caliber receivers and a quarterback

464
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: who's struggling. This is a Missouri team that wants to

465
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 3: run the ball. That's what they want to do. They

466
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 3: want their offense goes as Tyler vtigez and he's been unbelievable.

467
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,919
Speaker 3: Get what do you have against arks On forty carries?

468
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 3: They're just gonna feed him. But Army's defense top twenty

469
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 3: in rush success rate. That's huge here. So I don't

470
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 3: think Missouri can take advantage of the Army of the

471
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 3: Army's weaknesses on defense on the other side of the ball,

472
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: Missouri's defense one hundred and tenth in EPA per rush. Well,

473
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 3: we know Army all, that's all they want to do.

474
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 3: They had a little improvement for a couple of games

475
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 3: and then Arkansas just came out and ran all over them.

476
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 3: So this is a bad run day against Army. And

477
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,719
Speaker 3: again I always speak to this with the motivation too.

478
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 3: The last thing you want to do is go out

479
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 3: there and get you low blocked and try to defend

480
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 3: the full option for four quarters in an exhibition game.

481
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 3: So maybe that speaks to some of the Service Academy

482
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: numbers as well. But good batchup for the Army rush

483
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 3: offense and then the Army defense. They excel at defending

484
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 3: the run and that's all Missouri wants to do, and

485
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 3: they can't take advantage over top of this Army secondary.

486
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 3: So I really like Army for motivation reasons and for

487
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 3: the matchup factors on the field. What do you see here?

488
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm not a trends guy, but this

489
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 1: is another one that points to Army. Four and one

490
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 1: against the spread away from home this year, Missouri covered

491
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: just once away from home. They barely covered any games

492
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 1: this year. Listen, the handicap is pretty easy. This is

493
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 1: one of the easiest handicaps. One of the easiest bets

494
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: I made was Army minus three, and I think at

495
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: minus four you can still play them. I would probably

496
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 1: start pausing at four and a half. But there's no

497
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 1: other handicap than what Army does on offense, in the

498
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: rushing game and in scoring opportunities. The Black Knights are

499
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 1: second in rushing success rate, They're second in offensive finishing drives.

500
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 1: You flip that around on Missouri, you're looking at one

501
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty first defensively in finishing drives, at one

502
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteenth the defensive rushing success rate. Army is

503
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: going to run the triple option down their throat, and

504
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: once they get past the forty yard line, it's going

505
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 1: to turn into six points. Is that eight possessions or

506
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 1: is that twelve possessions? That's really the big question here,

507
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 1: you know, And I think if you say, well, this

508
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 1: is an SEC school and this is an SEC defense,

509
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 1: and you can't count those numbers because Missouri went up

510
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: against teams like Georgia, I will remind everybody that Army

511
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 1: went eight for sixteen on third and fourth down on

512
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 1: attempts against a loaded Wisconsin rush defense, like they move

513
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: the ball on Wisconsin. I know it is just a

514
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: three point six yard average, but that's still better than

515
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 1: a lot of teams in the Big Ten did. I

516
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 1: just don't see how Army is not scoring on all

517
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: their possessions. And I think the big question here is

518
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 1: they have eight possessions. Are they milk and clock and

519
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 1: getting as low as seven possessions or are they getting

520
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 1: up to twelve? And I think that really comes down

521
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: to how fast Missouri is going to play. Nothing in

522
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: their number there, they're fifty eighth in pace, so nothing

523
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 1: too fast or too slow. The questions for me all

524
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: around the Missouri side, especially the Missouri offense. All three

525
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: quarterbacks Connor Bay's, like Tyler Make and Brady Cook, they're

526
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 1: all in competition right now just to have playing time

527
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: in this game. We don't know who's going to start.

528
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 1: We don't know how much playing time everyone's going to get.

529
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 1: If you're not comfortable with taking Army over three and

530
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,360
Speaker 1: the market that's at four, I still think you're good

531
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: at four. But if you're not comfortable that, take the

532
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 1: Army team total over because I can't see one possession

533
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: not ending up in some sort of points. And these

534
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 1: guys are going to score. I mean, considering the finishing

535
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 1: drives aspect, the biggest differential of any bowl game, Army

536
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: should get a touchdown every time. I just think it's

537
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 1: really question whether you get eight to twelve possessions.

538
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, completely, this is just Army.

539
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: And yeah, I go back to Houston, right this Armed

540
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 1: Forces Bowl a couple of years ago against Houston, Army

541
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 1: had ten possessions. They scored seventy points.

542
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 3: Do the math still the record, by the way for

543
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 3: most points in a bowl game by a service skote

544
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 3: me team, though less that I've had ten, only ten possessions.

545
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to our next bowl game,

546
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 3: and to do so, we have to go to Thursday,

547
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: December twenty third for the Frisco Football Classic. So there's

548
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: there's the Frisco Bowl, which is we just talked about.

549
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 3: That's on Tuesday. Any of the Frisco Football Classic. This

550
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 3: has never been played before between Miami, Ohio and North Texas.

551
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 3: Michael has a three point favorite here over under fifty

552
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 3: four and a half. This game we played three thirty

553
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,959
Speaker 3: Eastern on ESPN Thursday afternoon at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

554
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 3: One of these two coaches has to win a bowl game.

555
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 3: Seth Latreel owned four and bowls, Chuck Martin Owen two

556
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 3: and bowls. Something has to give, can't have a time

557
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 3: in college football. It is worth mentioning this game is

558
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 3: did Frisco, Texas. That's about a half hour drive from

559
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 3: the North Texas campus in Denton, so there's definitely a

560
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 3: home field regional advantage here for North Texas. They're gonna

561
00:25:59,920 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 3: have more fans here. I mean, I don't know how

562
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: big is the North Texas fan base. I'm not sure,

563
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 3: but I can't imagine many Miami Ohio fans are going

564
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 3: down to Frisco for this game, and they have to

565
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 3: obviously travel a lot more, which is worth noting. I

566
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 3: personally played the over fifty four here. I like it

567
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 3: up to fifty four and a half, which is where

568
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 3: it's at currently. This Miami o Ohio offense, if you

569
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 3: look at some of their numbers, they're a little underwhelming,

570
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 3: but that's because they haven't had the same quarterback all year.

571
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 3: Gabert has been dealing with some injuries and he's back now,

572
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: and their offense is just on a different level when

573
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 3: he's in the game compared to Ajmier. If you look

574
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 3: at a lot of the splits, it's just night and day.

575
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 3: So he's back. They have some really good receivers that

576
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 3: I think could take advantage of a North Texas defense

577
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 3: that is vulnerable in the secondary. And this Miami of

578
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 3: the Ohio defense has some holes as well that I

579
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 3: think North Texas can take advantage of. So I think

580
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 3: that there's some value in over fifty four. Let me

581
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 3: check the updated weather in Frisco, because Frisco, Texas does

582
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 3: get some wins sometime. Yeah, fifteen miles an hour, so

583
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: it's something that you know, I mean, once you're over fifteen,

584
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 3: that's when I start to say, okay, maybe this can

585
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: be a factor. So right now it's projected at fifteen.

586
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: It's only mon it's Sunday night. We're recording this, so

587
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 3: we'll get more of a clarity. That's something to keep

588
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 3: in mind as well, which obviously wouldn't help the over

589
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: but I played the over here curious to get your

590
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 3: thoughts on breaking this one down.

591
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a game that I projected Miami minus three.

592
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 1: The markets right in line with minus three, So I

593
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: mean there has not been anything put on the app

594
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 1: by me. I also project a total at fifty four,

595
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: and we're at fifty four and a half. And there

596
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 1: North Texas got here by just going berserk at the

597
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: end of the season. Five straight against the spread and

598
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 1: straight up wins to end the season and.

599
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: MICUs six and six to get the ball out goted.

600
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 3: So you would think that they would care here. There's

601
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 3: a lot of trends that support these teams that go

602
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 3: on a late run and win their last game to

603
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 3: get the six wins.

604
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: You would think they care. And then I remember that

605
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: Sethlatrell is one and three against the spread and bowls,

606
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: and I go back to Winnie flirted with the Kansas

607
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: State job, didn't take it, showed up in the bowl

608
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 1: game against Utah State, a Utah State team that was

609
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: missing everybody, including Jordan Love and a coach, and Utah

610
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: State blew them out of the water. So I get

611
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: a little nervous about seth Latrell's preparations for a bowl game.

612
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 1: And so that makes me a little bit nervous. But

613
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,400
Speaker 1: when you turn around to look, North Texas has gone

614
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 1: on this run because they've been so heavy on the rush.

615
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: Long gone are the days of them, you know, slinging

616
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: it around on every single play and standard downs, throwing

617
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: no matter of the down and distance. Now it's a

618
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: rushing attack from North Texas has done all this damage

619
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: and conference play, But Miami of Ohio's thirtieth in defensive

620
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 1: stuff rate. I think that they're going to be able

621
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 1: to handle what North Texas is going to try to

622
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: do on the ground, and you know, they have a

623
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: pretty decent pass rush. North Texas is not very highly

624
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: ranked in past blocking their one hundred and thirteenth offensively

625
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: and finishing drives and a lot of this is just

626
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: two different seasons, right, But if you look at North

627
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: texas schedule over like the last six games, it was

628
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 1: pretty much the cake of Conference USA. So you know,

629
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna end up playing Miami of Ohio here.

630
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: I think there's going to be a surge in people

631
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: backing North Texas. The one thing that they've done is

632
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: run the ball. Miami of Ohio can stop that. I'm

633
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 1: not comfortable backing mac teams. I can tell you this,

634
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 1: Like if we're going on and Kent gets blown out,

635
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: that'll be like no MAC team wins only one cover

636
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: by Northern Illinois. I'm gonna be pretty hesitant to take

637
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: Miami Ohio, but the number is right at three. If

638
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 1: it comes off any more than that, then there is

639
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: value on Miami of Ohio. So I'm going to be

640
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 1: watching this one. I'd say check the app numbers in line,

641
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 1: but I just think there's gonna be a surge in

642
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: North Texas money because of what they did over the

643
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: final month six weeks of the season.

644
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually see I actually see some vulnerability in

645
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 3: the Minham Ohio run defense. And you're right. So that's

646
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 3: what North Texas has been doing well lately. And I

647
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: mean they're ninety sixth Mina Ohio and EPA per rush

648
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 3: on defense. So I actually think that North Texas can

649
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 3: have some success running the ball the North Texas. North

650
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 3: Texas can't really throw the ball, but they're gonna be

651
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 3: running it, I think, well, and they go fast North

652
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: Texas once to date, that's one thing they still do.

653
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 3: Their top ten in adjusted pace. Mia Ohio is slightly

654
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 3: above average in that aspect, so you're gonna get some

655
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 3: pace in this game. And Mina Ohio tends to play

656
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 3: even a little faster when Gabert, who's back at quarterback

657
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 3: now is in there. Has also had some injuries at linebackers.

658
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 3: So I think Texas can move the ball and I

659
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: think Mina Ohio for sure with Gabrett back there slinging

660
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 3: it around. The only thing I would worry about with

661
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 3: your Mina of Ohio play yes, MAC team. Every data

662
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 3: point that comes in on some of these conferences, you

663
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 3: can get more confident about saying, all right, maybe this

664
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 3: conference as a whole was really bad this year. So

665
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 3: that's one concern and the other is the motivation. Right,

666
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: So North Texas gets the six wins, they go to

667
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 3: a big run at the end of the year. They're

668
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 3: playing near home in Texas. You would think that they

669
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 3: should care in Mia, Ohio, right that they're six and

670
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 3: six two, But they lost their last game of the

671
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: year by one on a two point conversion against Kent

672
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 3: State with a chance to go to the conference championship.

673
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 3: So you know, a month later, going down to Frisco,

674
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 3: Texas for a Thursday afternoon game against North Texas, are

675
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 3: they excited about it? I don't know.

676
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: That's that's part of the classic. It's a classic bowl game.

677
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: Though the Classic, the de Inauguil Frisco Classic. All right,

678
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: good stuff there. And by the way, I think so far,

679
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 3: when we go into our next bowl preview, that's really

680
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 3: when we're going to get into a lot of you know,

681
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 3: who's out, who opted out, who's moving and coaching. So far,

682
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 3: in these bowl games that we've talked about so far,

683
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 3: it's really just since here m McCormick is out, Chad Muma,

684
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: the Wyoming linebacker he decided to play. That's it so far.

685
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 3: We're going to be getting into them a lot more

686
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 3: with some of the Power Cofference teams to have more

687
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 3: NFL prospects and have seen more coaching changes.

688
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: Or if you're a Razorback fan and your favorite defensive

689
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: end decides to fall asleep at a McDonald's and get

690
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: a dui and now he declares for the NFL draft,

691
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff happens at the Power five games.

692
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: Right. All right, let's move on to our next bowl

693
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 3: and this is going to be Thursday night, December twenty third,

694
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 3: and the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, Florida between UCF and Florida.

695
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: Florida is a six and a half point favorite over

696
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 3: under fifty five and half. This is a game. Eventually

697
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 3: we're gonna be talking about a lot of opt outs

698
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 3: and you know, coaching carousel things in our next preview

699
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 3: when we're talking about more than power flight. Well, this

700
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 3: this is one where we have to monitor some stuff,

701
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 3: so we're gonna talk about that first here. You know,

702
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 3: these are obviously it's like a little brother, big brother,

703
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 3: U see from Florida. So it does Florida care here?

704
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 3: That's one of the main questions I have. Does Florida

705
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 3: care about this game against UCF? And maybe it helps

706
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 3: that it's UCF and there's kids on Florida. You obviously

707
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: you see us playing Florida right like they're gonna care

708
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 3: for this game in Tampa. But you see have star

709
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 3: quarterback Dylan Gabriel. He announced Hull transfer, but he's already

710
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 3: out for the year with an injury. They could see

711
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: the return of running back Isaiah Bowser, has been sidelined

712
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 3: since early November. But the more intriguing news is on

713
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 3: the other side of the ball of Florida. They have

714
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 3: an interim coach, Greg Knox, who's the running backs and

715
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 3: special teams coach. As they transitioned from the recently fired

716
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 3: Dan Mullen to the recently hired Bill lead Napier or

717
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 3: the unnamed one. Did any of the Florida defenders opt

718
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 3: out yet? I don't. I haven't seen anything on Elam who.

719
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 3: Some projectors are first or second round draft pick their cornerback.

720
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: I will update the file on the Action NETWORKAP Inaction

721
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 3: work dot Com. I gotta go through them tonight, so

722
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 3: make sure you check that out. I'll see who is out.

723
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 3: But it is worth noting that Jacob Copeland one of

724
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 3: their best receivers, he's gonna opt out, and linebacker Mama

725
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 3: Diadette he's also entering the transfer portal, as is Anthony Richardson.

726
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 3: He will miss as well due to minor knee surgery.

727
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 3: Emery Jones and now See will enter the transfer portal,

728
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: but he plans to play in this Bowl game. So

729
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 3: there's a lot to sort out with Florida. I think

730
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 3: the key to this is that this number is cheap

731
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 3: in my opinion, but I think it's pricing in some

732
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 3: of this motivation which you see and does Florida ultimately

733
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 3: care here? This is probably the most difficult Bowl for

734
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 3: me to cap out of all of them, in my

735
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 3: confidence pools. I always put this one at one, especially

736
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 3: in the against the spread I have as of right now.

737
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 3: Maybe some things will pop up, and I'm continue always

738
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 3: looking into these games. I just have nothing here right

739
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 3: now as far as a strong take what you got?

740
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have a strong take on this one either,

741
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: but I will go over you know, some of the

742
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: key things that you should know. Florida never covered a

743
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 1: game away from home. They didn't cover a game in

744
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: their last five last five of the year. Now we

745
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 1: know what was going on with the toxicity of you know,

746
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: Dan Mullen being around. But you know, I go back

747
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 1: to some of the injuries and the opt outs in

748
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: this game. The Central Florida money keeps coming in getting

749
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 1: this thing under a touchdown, you know, And this is

750
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: something that I have at five and a half. So there's,

751
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 1: you know, a reason why I haven't touched this yet.

752
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: But for UCF, we know Dylan Gabriel has been going

753
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: for a while. He's at UCLA the big announcement, So

754
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: it's the Mikey Kean era, or at least Mikey Keane's

755
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 1: chance to convince Gus Malzon and GJ. Kinney did not

756
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: go into the portal and look for another quarterback. Mikey

757
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 1: Kean's finished the season sixteen to six TD to I

758
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 1: int ratio, but that's very misleading. He posts more turnover

759
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: worthy plays than big time throws, and mikey Kean hasn't

760
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 1: even posted a big time throw since Week ten against Tulane.

761
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 1: So if you throw out that Yukon game, UCF didn't

762
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 1: come their last three games. They scored less than an

763
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 1: average of twenty points against South Florida, SMU and Twulane,

764
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 1: so it's tough to back then Central. You know, Central

765
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,280
Speaker 1: Florida's strength on defense has come against the pass attack.

766
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 1: Teams that post one hundred and seventy five yards or

767
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: more on the ground beat Central Florida. So in the

768
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: advanced stats, you know UCF top twenty five and coverage

769
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 1: havoc and against pass explosiveness. This really is like, can

770
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 1: Florida run the ball? If they do, are they going

771
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: to be able to get up to two hundred yards?

772
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: And they should win? And I think they can do

773
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: that against this defense because you know the strength of

774
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 1: the UCF defense is the secondary nineteenth and coverage twenty

775
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 1: third and havoc. A lot of that comes, you know,

776
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: when they get teams into passing downs. So if Florida

777
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: is able to establish the run, which you would think

778
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,439
Speaker 1: an offensive line from the University of Florida could push

779
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: around the defensive line from Central Florida.

780
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 3: Then defensive struggled a lot more against the run. Yeah.

781
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think you're actually getting an extremely cheap

782
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: price on Florida. And I really don't expect this number

783
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:03,359
Speaker 1: to go back up. I think it's gonna keep going down.

784
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: I see five and a half in a sharp shop

785
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: in Vegas right now.

786
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 3: I think the summer's gonna go down, and a Florida's

787
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 3: a big loss for Florida as well. And like they

788
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 3: just their run defense numbers are awful. They're ninety and

789
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,959
Speaker 3: especially look, I mean they're eighty first and EPA per rush.

790
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 3: No grant you're playing in the SEC, but ninety fifth

791
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 3: and explosive rush percentage on defense UCF top five, So

792
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 3: are they. And if you don't show up here and

793
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 3: you're you're just gonna and UCF wants to just sit

794
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 3: there and run the ball down their throats and Florida

795
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 3: doesn't show up, UCF could win this game easily. I

796
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:38,919
Speaker 3: could see if Florida doesn't sign a show. Both teams

797
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,919
Speaker 3: aren't actually fast either, which is something to keep in mind.

798
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 3: But tough game to handicap here, and I think the

799
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 3: market is kind of we need going too, but we.

800
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: Need the status of Isaiah Bowser too, like it's just

801
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: been beat up for the last month. No I have

802
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: checked before the podcast, no word on him. We probably

803
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: won't get word till the night before. That's gonna move

804
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 1: the market. Also is the status are running back Isaiah

805
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:00,800
Speaker 1: Bowser for for Central Florida.

806
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 3: Tough game in the handicap And by the way, we'll

807
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 3: also have all of these previous Revery Bowl out on

808
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot com and the Action Network app. All right,

809
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 3: let's move on to our sixth Bowl game of the

810
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 3: Bowl Betting Preview, Part two, and that's on Friday, December

811
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 3: twenty fourth, Christmas Eve, the Hawaii Bowl between Memphis and Hawaii,

812
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 3: eight pm Eastern on ESPN. This game will be played

813
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 3: in Honolulu at the Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex. It's

814
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 3: no longer where Hawaii used to play. As of right now,

815
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 3: Memphis is out to a nine point favorite over Unders

816
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 3: down to fifty six a couple transfer notes here, starting

817
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: quarterback for Hawaii, Chevin Cordero, he decided the transfer. Starting

818
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:53,760
Speaker 3: running back Dave Hunter decided the transfer. Memphis best receiver,

819
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 3: Calvin Austin. He's not playing in the Bowl. I played

820
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 3: the under fifty seven and a half here. I still

821
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 3: like it at fifty seven. At the Hawaii offense without

822
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 3: Hunter and Cordero, I mean, the backup quarterback has played

823
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 3: some of this year, and the offense has been significantly worse.

824
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: And now you don't have Hunter back there, and now

825
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 3: Memphis doesn't have one of their best receivers. The question

826
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,919
Speaker 3: for this game, I mean, this, this line is now outrageous,

827
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 3: but you know, they do. You do lose your starting

828
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 3: quarterback and starting running back. And then there's reports out there.

829
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,879
Speaker 3: This is this is one of the most difficult balls

830
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 3: to cap in this aspect. The reports out there that

831
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 3: Memphis excuse that Hawaii's players have lost their passion for football,

832
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 3: and there's just controversy, turmoil within the program with Todd Graham,

833
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 3: and that's I assume part of the reason why you

834
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 3: saw Cordero on Hunter entered the transfer portal. But they

835
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 3: you know, the last game of the year, they went

836
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 3: to Hawaiian rolled and they get to play in Hawaii? Right,

837
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 3: So like are they showing up here or not? Do

838
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 3: they care or not? Is because if they don't care,

839
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: they can get blown out. Hawaii does have a losing record.

840
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 3: This is six and sixteen versus a six and seventeen.

841
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 3: Hawaii finished six and seven on the year, Memphis going out,

842
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 3: so why you know they finished six and six on

843
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 3: the year. I think that they'll they'll carrier. So I

844
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 3: think that from a motivational aspect, if why just says, look,

845
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 3: we're not we don't care preparing for this Bowl, f

846
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 3: you gram, then Memphis is going to roll here. And

847
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 3: that's kind of what the market is saying, right, And

848
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 3: that's why this number is in part because Hunter and

849
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 3: Cordero out, but just all these stories surrounding Hawaii. But

850
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 3: at what point does the line get too high and

851
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 3: then you have to take a shot with Hawaii? So

852
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 3: pretty intriguing bowl game from a motivational and market perspective.

853
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 3: What do you see here?

854
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 1: I mentioned it as a joke on our BBOC Live

855
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 1: show yesterday, but it's like this game is like I

856
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 1: don't know, I think one o'clock Hawaii time island time.

857
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 1: I mean, how many people have a lower forty eight flight,

858
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 1: a red eye flight back to lax or DFW like

859
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 1: trying to get the hell off the island after this game, right,

860
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: the whole entire emphasy the players for Hawaii. Todd Graham's

861
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: happy to separate himself from this mess. I the market

862
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 1: is just wild, right. Hit the Memphis minus three, big deal,

863
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: that doesn't even apply. Now. This number I had projected

864
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 1: even before everything came out. I had it projected at

865
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 1: eight and a half. We've surpassed that. And what's going

866
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 1: to happen in the market now is that Memphis is

867
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: gonna take money and continue to take money, and that

868
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 1: number is going to stop when the odds makers finally

869
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: see somebody take a bite on Hawaii. And nobody's stepping

870
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:23,919
Speaker 1: up to take a bite on Hawaii. So it's really

871
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 1: hard to say, you know, where's this number going to stop.

872
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: I don't have a clue. You would think people that

873
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 1: bought minus three on Memphis like me would come back

874
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 1: and say ten. Yeah, I think I'm just gonna write Memphis,

875
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 1: let it go. But I mean, at the same time,

876
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: this is a huge window. Listen, you're gonna get Brayden

877
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,760
Speaker 1: schleeger in at quarterback. He has two big time throws

878
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:46,280
Speaker 1: and one hundred and seven attempts, nine turnover worthy plays.

879
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 1: The key for the Memphis d is pressure. Four of

880
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 1: the five interceptions by Shager have come in pressured pockets.

881
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: He does not do well in a crowded pocket whatsoever.

882
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 1: And the good news is after allegations against head coach

883
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: Todd Graham about verbal abuse and I've lost passion to

884
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: play that really centered around the starters. So the people

885
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 1: that I would say that, if you're thinking about taking

886
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: Hawaii as a contrarian play because it's Christmas Eve and

887
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 1: you're gonna be sipping on scotch and going to midnight

888
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 1: Mass like I am, you're doing it because the roster

889
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 1: that's still there actually wants to be on the Hawaii

890
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 1: roster next year. If you don't want to be on

891
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: the Hawaii roster next year, you're already in the porter,

892
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 1: or you're already home, or you're out of this game.

893
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 1: So at least you could say that about the guys

894
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 1: that are still there. When you look at Hawaii, one

895
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,959
Speaker 1: of the biggest defensive loss that they have is corner

896
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 1: Cameron Lockridge. Now he is the highest graded coverage defender

897
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,439
Speaker 1: for the Rainbow Warriors. So, like I said, I don't

898
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 1: think I'm going back on playing Memphis, especially when the

899
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 1: best cover corner on the Hawaii team is gone. You

900
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 1: can bet freshman seth In again is going to target

901
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 1: the new corner in this game. And I know that

902
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 1: Calvin Austin, the third is not in this and he's

903
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,959
Speaker 1: dealing with an ankle injury. They said stay at home.

904
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 1: You know you're not healthy enough to play anyways, and

905
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 1: whether you're with us or you've gone somewhere else, just

906
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: stay at home. So Austin is one hundred and twenty

907
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 1: one targets on the season. The next highest is tight

908
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 1: end Sean Diykes sixty one. And I mean Memphis is

909
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 1: gonna win this game. And Hennigan is comfortable with other

910
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 1: targets wide receivers Javon Ivory and Eddie Lewis. They've been

911
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: targeted twenty eight times in third downs, so there's some experience.

912
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 1: But to play into your under which I played the

913
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,399
Speaker 1: under two, I played it for a little bit less

914
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: than fifty six in the app. Calvin also is not

915
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 1: going to be there for freshman seth Innigan as his

916
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: hot route as is one guy to throw to, So

917
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 1: I think that really tends itself to the under a

918
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 1: little bit here. Also, I don't know how Hawaii behind Segar,

919
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 1: no Cordero, no Hunter, I don't know how they score point.

920
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: I don't know how they score. So I like the under.

921
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 1: As far as the side, I don't know what to

922
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 1: tell you because the books are going to take money

923
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 1: on Memphis and they're not going to stop until they

924
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 1: get somebody to come in and put a penny on Hawaii.

925
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: So I'll take under to the key of fifty five.

926
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 1: Fifty five is the number you want to stop.

927
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 3: Yeah. The one thing that's not in the unders favor

928
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 3: is the pace. That the pace is going to be

929
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 3: fast in this game. Why is it, you know, around

930
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 3: fortieth in the country toustin pace, Memphis is top ten.

931
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 3: I think they're tenth or eleventh are around there, So

932
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 3: the pace can be fast. But Hawaii, as you said,

933
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 3: their offense is now depleted. But the one good thing

934
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 3: that both of these defenses do is they don't give

935
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 3: up explosive plays. They're both in the top fifteen in

936
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 3: the country and allow in preventing explosive plays, So which

937
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 3: team can have more success driving up and down the field.

938
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 3: That might come down to care and I would assume

939
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 3: that Hennigan would get the clear advantage there. Now that

940
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 3: Cordera and Hunter are out of the picture, and if

941
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 3: there's like a full blown revolt and they didn't no

942
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 3: one cares, then Hawaii might lose this game, you know,

943
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 3: forty two to nothing. All right, let's move on to

944
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 3: our final bowl game, and that's on Christmas Day, the

945
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 3: Camellia Bowl Bowl on Christmas Day. We usually don't get

946
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 3: that right, and didn't get that. Yeah, Ball on Christmas Day.

947
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 3: Usually it's the NFL's day and there will be NFL,

948
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 3: but there's gonna be bowl as well, so you know,

949
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 3: when the whole Browns team is out for COVID, go

950
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 3: ahead and flip on the Camellia Bowl between Ball State

951
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 3: and Georgia State, two thirty eastern on ESPN. This game

952
00:43:56,760 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 3: will be played in Montgomery, Alabama. Think that there's a

953
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 3: slight regional potentially fan edge for Georgia State here. Not

954
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 3: sure how many fans for Munsie are heading down to Montgomery,

955
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 3: Alabama for a bowl on Christmas Day. I don't know

956
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 3: how may people who are going to be at this bowl.

957
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:19,280
Speaker 3: They maybe fifteen. I didn't even think of that Christmas

958
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 3: Day afternoon. Who's going in this bowl? So this is

959
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 3: gonna be an empty bowl game. Ball State also won

960
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 3: a bowl last year, so it's not like, hey, we

961
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,439
Speaker 3: got to get to the Bowl for seat. Ball State

962
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 3: finally win a bowl game. Let's see the market on

963
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 3: this game currently. Ball State, we finished six and six,

964
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 3: is a now five and a half point underdog total

965
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 3: sitting at fifty. Georgia State finished at seven to five

966
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 3: on the season, really came on at the end of

967
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:45,399
Speaker 3: the year, made a quarterback change. Corde always brous this's

968
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 3: be a quarterbacks for a lot of promise last year.

969
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 3: He ended up getting bench and then the offense actually

970
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 3: took off. The Georgia State's playing some of its best

971
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:53,719
Speaker 3: football of the year. It's the team I really liked

972
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 3: this year coming into the year, kind of disappointed early

973
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 3: on in the season, but then really found their footing

974
00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 3: as the season progressed. What do you see here in

975
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 3: the chameleon ball on Christmas Day?

976
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 1: Well, you got to take the Sun Belt team in Crampton, right,

977
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 1: I mean Georgia State was five and one against spread

978
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 1: away from home. Ball State five straight unders to end

979
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: the season. The Panthers, like you said, they ended the

980
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 1: season on a tear. And this is a game where

981
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: whoever establishes the rush is going to win this game.

982
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:18,399
Speaker 1: And if you look at the advanced stats, that tells

983
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 1: me that it's going to be the Panthers. How hot

984
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 1: were they down the stretch. They even beat Coastal Carolina outright.

985
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 1: So Georgia State is a team I would keep my

986
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:29,439
Speaker 1: eye on in the offseason that maybe somebody that will

987
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: be taking to look in the fun belt next year.

988
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 1: They run on sixty five percent of snaps. They have

989
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 1: an offensive rank of top twenty five and stuff rate offensively,

990
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 1: which means they control the line of scrimmage, and they're

991
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: also top twenty five in standard down success rate they get.

992
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 1: They move the chains a lot, a lot of first downs.

993
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 1: If there's an area where Ball State struggles on defense,

994
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 1: it's early downs. They have a bottom five rank in

995
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: the nation and success rate on standard downs. So what

996
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 1: I just told you is a major like one hundred

997
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 1: ranked discrepancy on what's going to happen when Georgia State

998
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:00,919
Speaker 1: has first and ten or second and seven. We mentioned

999
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 1: Ball State and Drew Plitt, I mean the struggles to

1000
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 1: get points on the board. I went deep into Plit's

1001
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: advanced stats trying to figure out what has happened this season.

1002
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: Is NFL rating for the years eighty seven? Yeah, he

1003
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 1: just had two consecutive years over one hundred. He's had

1004
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: a sharp increase in balls batted down. He has tripled

1005
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 1: his thrown away percentage from twenty twenty. The team is

1006
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,320
Speaker 1: near dead last. And pass explosiveness, it's just an area

1007
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 1: that the Georgia State defense struggles in. So if ball

1008
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 1: State could have explosive passes, they'd have some success here.

1009
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: But they haven't been doing that at all, so I

1010
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: don't expect that to just show up. The Panthers are

1011
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 1: going to be methodical. They have two eight hundred yard

1012
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: backs each have posted nine touchdowns. Jamis Williams and Tucker

1013
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 1: greg both average over three yards after contact and have

1014
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:43,399
Speaker 1: combined for fifty nine missed tackles. I like Georgia State

1015
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 1: up to seven. I see the sharpest shop out in Vegas.

1016
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 1: Tick to this before you and I hit record. They

1017
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 1: moved it up to six, so I like this all

1018
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: the way up to seven. I'm not sure Ball State

1019
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 1: shows up. And the way to be Georgia State is

1020
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 1: an explosive pass and Ball State does not have it.

1021
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, Plitt really regressed hard, even though he had some

1022
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 3: of the same receivers in that passing offense really just

1023
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 3: fell off a cliff. I agree, it's a really good

1024
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 3: matchup for Georgia State. I think motivational, regional advantages, everything

1025
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 3: is there. I mean, the Georgia State defense has played

1026
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 3: really well and this ball State defense is just atrocious.

1027
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:14,320
Speaker 3: I mean that one hundred and twenty third and success

1028
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 3: rate one hundred and twenty fifth and standard down success rate,

1029
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 3: and you're talking about a Georgia State offense that's top

1030
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 3: thirty in both of those categories. It's a really, really

1031
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 3: efficient offense that can move the ball. They prefer to

1032
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 3: do it on the ground. One area that they do

1033
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:32,720
Speaker 3: lack in is explosiveness. That's not a really explosive offense.

1034
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 3: And that's the one area that Ball State excels in

1035
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 3: on defense. Right, they take away explosive plays, that's it.

1036
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 3: Who cares. Georgia State doesn't rely on explosives. So and

1037
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 3: then where you attack Georgia State is through explosive passes

1038
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 3: through the air and Ball State can't do that. So

1039
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 3: from a statistical point of view, and this is this

1040
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 3: matchup heavily favors Georgia State. Like we said, regional motivational,

1041
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 3: there's a really good chance that Ball State lays an

1042
00:47:57,600 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 3: egg year on Christmas Day, I'll be on Georgia State

1043
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 3: and some or fashion I agree with you. That'll wrap

1044
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 3: it up for the seven Bowls through Christmas Day. As

1045
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:08,760
Speaker 3: I mentioned earlier, we will have Part three next Monday

1046
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 3: morning and we'll start with Boston College, East Carolina and

1047
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 3: then we will go I think we'll cover fourteen bowls

1048
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 3: on that podcast. Yeah, we'll have to go through some

1049
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 3: of them fast, a little quicker that we don't love.

1050
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 3: There's a lot to get through, so that episode is

1051
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:27,319
Speaker 3: going to be absolutely loaded. Before we get out of here, though,

1052
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 3: Let's go three and now.

1053
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and.

1054
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 3: Out Arkansas Penn State. I want to ask you just

1055
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:39,799
Speaker 3: your quick thought. We're going to break this game down

1056
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 3: on our Bowl preview Part four, but this line is

1057
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 3: sitting at two. You know you, Trey Williams is gone.

1058
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: You have Berks who opted out. We still don't know

1059
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 3: any status on Penn State players. Mainly John Dotson is

1060
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,760
Speaker 3: who I'm looking out for, and he's just a massive

1061
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 3: part their offense obviously, So what is your feeling on

1062
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 3: where Arkansas is? Mentally you don't have to go I

1063
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 3: don't want you to go too deep into this, but like,

1064
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 3: if this hits three, is Arkansas worth a buy? Is

1065
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 3: this side? Let's wait to see what happens with Penn

1066
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 3: State anything that you're monitoring here people should look out.

1067
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 1: For, right right, You're like you said, Penn State's gonna

1068
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 1: announce who all's out right before the bowl game. So

1069
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 1: we can't handicap on that Arkansas's loss.

1070
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 3: Soon could come out and just declaire, you know, he

1071
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 3: could tweet something or something right right, And Arkansas has

1072
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,279
Speaker 3: lost Trey Burks and now Trey Williams is declared for

1073
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 3: the draft.

1074
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 1: He won't be at the game either, But this doesn't

1075
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: change the core handicap. Penn State lost PJ. Mustaffer before

1076
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:40,799
Speaker 1: the last month of the season, and Illinois put up

1077
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 1: three hundred rushing yards in between the tackles, and then Michigan,

1078
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 1: Michigan State and Ohio State had no issues running the

1079
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 1: ball in between the tackles. You're gonna give this Arkansas

1080
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: offensive line led by center Ricky Stromberg, one month to

1081
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:55,320
Speaker 1: get healthy. You're gonna give four running backs and Dominic

1082
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 1: Johnson Raheem Sanders. You're gonna give these guys a month

1083
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: to get healthy. Pittman's going to run the ball like

1084
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 1: crazy in between the tackles. That's why this total once

1085
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 1: at forty eight down to forty six and a half

1086
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 1: in some places. This is a noon game, a noon

1087
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,279
Speaker 1: Eastern game for a razorback team eleven am on their

1088
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: body clock on January first. It's going to be a grind,

1089
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 1: it's going to be ugly, and they're going to run.

1090
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 1: Sam Pittman's going to run everything in the world in

1091
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 1: between the two tackles on offense, and I don't think

1092
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 1: Penn State can stop that. So I expect the number

1093
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 1: to keep going down despite some of the opt outs

1094
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 1: and Trey Williams's and everything else. As long as kJ

1095
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 1: Jefferson is there, our four running backs are there, and

1096
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 1: our offensive line is there, will have success on the

1097
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:35,680
Speaker 1: Penn State front. Seven.

1098
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, if that under I think would be

1099
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 3: just slammed dunk, especially if Dotson is out. Like, if

1100
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 3: you take out Dotson and Burks from the explosive element

1101
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 3: of this game.

1102
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 1: Who's kJ going to throw to in passing downs? I mean,

1103
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: kJ has no clue who to throw to.

1104
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, what's Penn Steako do when they need an explosive pass? Play? Right?

1105
00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 3: And then it makes Penn State so much easier to defend.

1106
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 3: You don't have to worry about out there. All right,

1107
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 3: we'll go on that game on our Bowl betting preview

1108
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 3: Part four for second. Now, let's talk about another game

1109
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 3: here that's just got gardnered a lot of interest in

1110
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 3: the market, and that's Michigan State and Pitt Right, So

1111
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 3: this is just the who the hell was playing Bowl?

1112
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 3: And there was a lot of speculation on it. The

1113
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 3: market was assuming, like really it was pricing into this

1114
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 3: that Kenny Pickett wasn't going to play, right, the line

1115
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 3: moved and he didn't announce anything yet, and then he

1116
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 3: came out and finally announced that he wasn't going to

1117
00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 3: play in the Bowl. Michigan State, you know, was a

1118
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 3: four point underdog. They're currently said as a two and

1119
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,320
Speaker 3: a half point favorite. But Kenneth Walker also announced that

1120
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,240
Speaker 3: he's out. But he can't really run against Pitt. Pitt's

1121
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 3: also missing a corner. Like, what are we doing with

1122
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 3: this game? To pit off? It's a coordinator resigned. This

1123
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 3: game is a mess. I don't know what to do it.

1124
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:46,160
Speaker 3: I don't have a betout on it yet. I wish

1125
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 3: I would have got some early money on Michigan State.

1126
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 3: I thought Pickett was going to end up playing, but

1127
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 3: like all these other quarterbacks are playing except him and Strong,

1128
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 3: I mean, and then with Western Michigan's out the six

1129
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 3: and a half food favorite, I can't wait to lose

1130
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 3: that plus whatever. I but what are we? What are

1131
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 3: we doing with this game? Just stay away it right

1132
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 3: now if you don't have a position, because I'm confused

1133
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 3: by that.

1134
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 1: From what I can tell, Peyton Thorn is still the quarterback,

1135
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 1: you know, Jayden Reid is still a wide receiver for

1136
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 1: Michigan State, and Jalen Naylor is listed as questionable. So

1137
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 1: there still is the explosive pass aspect that's been there

1138
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: for Michigan State the entire season. You can't run on

1139
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 1: pit anyway, so they were going to go to the air.

1140
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 1: And if you look at pat Nardozi's one and three

1141
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: against the spread and Bowls. He's not showed up in

1142
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 1: bowl games whatsoever. And they lost their offensive coordinator and

1143
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: Mark Whipple and Patton Ardoozy, by the way, doesn't draw

1144
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:34,280
Speaker 1: up offensive plays. Watch out for Patton our dooozy.

1145
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 3: Ma Doozy just wants to run it up the middle.

1146
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that was a bit.

1147
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 3: And this under has come down to fifty five. I

1148
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:42,359
Speaker 3: might play this under.

1149
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 1: I think Michigan State is going to win this game.

1150
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 1: I mean, they still have the explosive passing attack. They

1151
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 1: give up explosive plays. But who on Pitt is now

1152
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 1: executing that right, No offensive coordinator, no quarterback. I don't

1153
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 1: know what is I'm.

1154
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 3: Seeing some fifty seven's out here. Yep, fifty Yeah, I'm

1155
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 3: taking under fifty seven. And this is USI's dream, come

1156
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 3: out here and run up the middle fifty times. All right,

1157
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:06,319
Speaker 3: Well more on that game as well before we get

1158
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,359
Speaker 3: out of here, one final order of business, and that's

1159
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 3: our favorite bet for these seven Bowls. Then I'm gonna

1160
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:16,360
Speaker 3: go with old Reliabel and that's a service Academy in

1161
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:20,320
Speaker 3: the Bowl Army against Missouri. Look, I think it's a

1162
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:24,240
Speaker 3: great matchup from an Ex's and O's perspective. Missouri cannot

1163
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 3: take advantage of Army second or their bottom ten in

1164
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 3: explosive passes. That's just a nightmare. That's where you have

1165
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 3: to attack this Army defense. And Missouri, yes they're an

1166
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:37,240
Speaker 3: SEC team, but it's not an SEC colver passing offense.

1167
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:41,400
Speaker 3: Baslik has regressed. The receivers aren't explosive on the outside.

1168
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 3: On the other side of the ball, Armies, you know,

1169
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 3: defense has been really good against the running that's what

1170
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 3: Missouri wants to do. They want to just feed Tyler

1171
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:52,239
Speaker 3: Batty and Missouri's run defense has also been bad, and

1172
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 3: that's a nightmare against Army. You know, ex's and os

1173
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 3: are both sides of the ball. Favor the Black Knights. Additionally,

1174
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 3: as I said, this is all reliable. Service academies always

1175
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 3: show up in Bowl games. They are thirty seven and

1176
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,359
Speaker 3: fourteen against the spread since nineteen eighty that's insane, seventy

1177
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 3: two and a half percent. And if the Service academy

1178
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 3: is twenty percentage of sixty five percent or more, try

1179
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 3: twenty two and four against the spread, right around ninety percent.

1180
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 3: So give me Army. I know that will show up

1181
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 3: here and it's a great matchup. I think on both

1182
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:22,239
Speaker 3: sides of the ball. How about you where you're going

1183
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:22,800
Speaker 3: for your favorite?

1184
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 1: On the BBOC Live show, I went with Georgia State

1185
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 1: minus four and a half. That number is moved. I

1186
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 1: take it to seven. But I will end this podcast

1187
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 1: by saying I'm going to take a Memphis under and

1188
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 1: we want to go all the way to fifty five,

1189
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 1: A key number there. I don't know where Hawaii is

1190
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 1: getting any points whatsoever. Their quarterback, their best player on offense.

1191
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 1: Today a Hunter is in the transfer portal. They are gone.

1192
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 1: That's going to leave it up to Braden Schager, who

1193
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 1: has had some terrible passing. He's over over one hundred

1194
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:53,320
Speaker 1: passing attempts and nine turnover worthy plays. It's really a

1195
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 1: question whether Hawaii can score any points whatsoever. You flip

1196
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 1: over to the Memphis side. They're the ones with seth

1197
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 1: In again, the freshman quarterback with a huge cannon arm.

1198
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 1: But the problem is they've lost their best wide receiver,

1199
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,720
Speaker 1: Calvin Austin the third there. He does have experience, Hennigan

1200
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 1: has experience with the other targets on this team. His

1201
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 1: tight ends a couple of wide receivers. But at the

1202
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 1: same time, this is not going to be as explosive

1203
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 1: of an offense from Memphis considering they've lost their top

1204
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 1: offensive players. So the under is really in a play

1205
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 1: in a game where both teams just probably wanted to

1206
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 1: get over so they can get off the island on

1207
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: Christmas Eve. I'm going to take the under here.

1208
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 3: Like it too. That's my favorite total as well for

1209
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 3: these seven bowls. Thank you for listening. Colin, thanks as

1210
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 3: always for joining me. I do want to give a

1211
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 3: couple of giveaways for those that left reviews. Cody Martin

1212
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,480
Speaker 3: thirteen listens to the podcast every morning as he watch

1213
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 3: his one year old to school. Looking forward to hearing

1214
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:45,799
Speaker 3: all of your Bowl game map updates. Go Cats, Yes,

1215
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 3: Serco Katz, Cody Martin thirteen, just DM me. We're our producer.

1216
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell, old boy Uncle Mitchell on Twitter. We'll get

1217
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 3: you some gear. How brock Daddy eighty nine hope Let's

1218
00:55:56,040 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 3: hope Brock Perdy decides to play the Bowl. B Ay

1219
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 3: Prisol is not great podcast, a good insight analysis, and

1220
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 3: some say this is this in the Sam Pittman charactery

1221
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 3: when it comes to gambling podcasts, and all others are

1222
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 3: closer to Chad Moore's territory. That should speak for itself.

1223
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:12,760
Speaker 3: Colin so Rock Daddy eighty nine. We'll Get You Stuff

1224
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 3: BWW nineteen oh eight. I listened to too many sports

1225
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 3: betting podcasts. This is my favorite one. Mary Stats with

1226
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,359
Speaker 3: information in game analysis, blah blah blah. Group of five

1227
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:24,399
Speaker 3: guys killing it. Also yep, and he said this coming

1228
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 3: from someone who tailed all stuck these conference championship picks.

1229
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 3: Wouldn't want to go down with any other ship. Well,

1230
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:32,319
Speaker 3: I'm glad that you were. We could drown together, brother,

1231
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:35,879
Speaker 3: and U missed a Q seventy nine eighty the best

1232
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:38,640
Speaker 3: college sports betting podcast on the planet. I've been listening

1233
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:40,919
Speaker 3: for years, profited from their picks and became a better

1234
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:43,720
Speaker 3: better We'll get you gear. Make sure you leave a review.

1235
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 3: I'm always generous and just PANDOC year to everybody. Five

1236
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 3: star review. Make sure you subscribe one subscribe to a friend,

1237
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 3: telling enemy. We appreciate you listening. It's time for us

1238
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 3: to go dig into some more balls. We'll be back

1239
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 3: with old wedding preview. It's more of a bonanza. Part

1240
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 3: three will be out Monday. More next Monday morning, going

1241
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 3: through I think fourteen bowls and then we'll have the

1242
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,319
Speaker 3: bull Betting Preview, Part four, which will come out later

1243
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 3: in the week for the New Year's even New Year's

1244
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,279
Speaker 3: Day bowl games, and then of course our live show

1245
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:13,839
Speaker 3: for the College Football National Championship. Thanks for listening, good

1246
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 3: luck on the bowls this week, and let's have a

1247
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 3: week cheers. He's out.