1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this out 10 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: where stocks pulling back to kick off the second half 11 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 2: of the year. Victoria fanadis across my global investments writing. 12 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: Rotation is the name of the game. Following an unwind 13 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 2: of momentum and beta, you can see weaker markets for 14 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 2: the next month. Victoria joins us now for more, Victoria, welcome. 15 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 2: Just elaborate a little bit more if you can. Where 16 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: are you expecting to see weakness? Yeah? 17 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 3: Well, I think, Jonathan, when you typically have this unwind 18 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: of moment of beta in the markets, you do have, 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 3: markets tend to go a little bit weaker for the 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 3: next thirty forty five days. Doesn't mean you have a 21 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 3: huge pullback, but you do have a little bit of 22 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 3: a consolidation. And I think we're seeing it within parts 23 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 3: of the market. Maybe we don't see it within the 24 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 3: entire market, but there are certain sectors and you guys 25 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 3: have been talking about them where we've been seeing some 26 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 3: of this come down, and you're also seeing within the 27 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 3: sectors not everything is responding the same. 28 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 4: So look semis. 29 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 3: You look at Simi's Russell three thousand semi industry group, 30 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 3: you only have about fifteen percent of those names above 31 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 3: their twenty day highs. So you had this big peak, 32 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 3: you had this bubble kind of formation going on here, 33 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 3: and now you're seeing the trends start to come down. 34 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 3: And that's some of the weakening that we expect to 35 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 3: see in the market. And maybe we'll see it in 36 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 3: other areas, but that's an example where you're seeing it. 37 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 4: And then you're seeing that. 38 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 3: Rotation into areas where sectors where they're actually having expanding 39 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 3: twenty day highs, healthcare, financials, industrials. 40 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 4: That's where the money is going. 41 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 3: And that tells us since money's not coming out of 42 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 3: the market, it's staying in and just rotating, we should 43 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 3: have a bull market longer term, but a little bit 44 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 3: of volatility and some weakness here in the near term. 45 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 2: If they sorry that pickup you're seeing in other sectors, 46 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 2: is it just the flavor of the same trait. 47 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 4: It's not the. 48 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 3: Same flavor, but I guess maybe it's kind of the 49 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 3: same meal that you're eating here. In terms of looking 50 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: for those trends in the market, where are you seeing them? Okay, 51 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 3: you started to see trends come off in momentum beta, 52 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 3: like we talked about. Where are you seeing the up trends? 53 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 3: Those are the sectors where people want to go. You 54 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 3: have pullbacks in up trends, Those are the technicals people 55 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 3: are looking for, and those are the sectors where you're 56 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 3: seeing it, those kind of beaten down sectors from before. 57 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 4: So similar in. 58 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 3: Terms of your looking at technical components to find where 59 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 3: to put money to work, but not that you're going 60 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 3: into any kind of bubble formation. You're finding those oversold 61 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 3: up trends. That's your entry point. 62 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: I keep wondering, Victoria, when are we going to run 63 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: out of money? 64 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 5: Because it feels like either there has to be some 65 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,799 Speaker 5: sort of fiscal stimulus that's coming, that's getting pumped into markets, 66 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 5: or at some point you have to imagine that every 67 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 5: company that says I need another twenty billion dollars is 68 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 5: going to get a little bit more pushback, or that 69 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 5: semiconductor saying I need eighty five percent profit margin is 70 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 5: going to get. 71 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: A little bit of pushback. I mean, at what point. 72 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 5: Do some of these bills start adding up. 73 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: And becoming cost prohibitive. 74 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 3: Lisa, this is where I think the market is actually 75 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 3: underestimating some of the elements, some of the warning signs 76 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 3: here in the economy. We had a lot of liquidity 77 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 3: come into the market in the fourth quarter of last 78 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 3: year and beginning of this year, and that liquidity is 79 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 3: starting to come out, And obviously if we have changes 80 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 3: in the balance sheet you guys were talking about that earlier, 81 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 3: that's going to affect liquidity as well. You're having the 82 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 3: runoff of the benefits from the tax bill. You're having 83 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: savings that have already been pulled down by consumers. So 84 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 3: where's the money coming from is a good question, But 85 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 3: you flip that coin over. 86 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 4: We had over three hundred. 87 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 3: Billion in new issuance in investment grade in the fixed 88 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 3: income markets in the first quarter June alone, had almost 89 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 3: two hundred billion come in, so we're getting close to 90 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 3: seventeen and a half trillion, and there is no lack 91 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 3: of desire for people going in and demand in these markets. 92 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 3: Even when you're getting balance sheets that maybe aren't that strong, 93 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 3: right free cash flows don't look great, it doesn't matter. 94 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 3: They get investment grade ratings. People go in and they 95 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 3: buy it up. So money is coming in. Maybe it's 96 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 3: the rotation out of the tech component, Maybe it's some 97 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 3: money sitting on the sides, Maybe it's money coming out 98 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 3: of bitcoin or some of those other areas of the market. 99 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 4: But the demand is there. 100 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 5: At what point will all this money slashing around the 101 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 5: system feed its way into more persistent inflation, even putting 102 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 5: aside some of the disinflationary impulse from oil prices of 103 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 5: late This. 104 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 4: Is the key point I think that the FED is watching. 105 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 3: Look, before we had the war start earlier in the year, 106 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 3: inflation was already getting sticky, and people were trying to 107 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 3: look and see how much is that actually flowing down 108 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 3: into the core components of what we're having, core goods 109 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 3: and core services. That was already happening, And I think 110 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 3: that's the reason the FED is looking and maybe having 111 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 3: still of a more hawkish few. Yes, gas prices can 112 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 3: come down, but what about the rest of that. Look 113 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,679 Speaker 3: at core in CPI, in PPI over five percent PCE 114 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 3: and okay, say you want to look at supercre right, 115 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 3: that was the name of the game for such a 116 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 3: long time for the Fed. 117 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 4: It's supercore. 118 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 3: Well, that's up to three point nine percent, and on 119 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 3: a three month average you're actually moving up on an 120 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 3: annual basis close to five percent there. So I think 121 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 3: there's a lot of concerns with what's flowing down into 122 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 3: the core components of our of our economy. That's what 123 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 3: the Fed's going to be watching, and that's why they're 124 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 3: remaining on hold and having that hawkish tilt that the 125 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 3: market seems to be ignoring right now. 126 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 6: Victoria, what do you expect to hear from Kevin Moore today? 127 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: For you? 128 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 6: Is this potentially a catalyst for market moves? 129 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 4: I'm not sure, Amory, that it's going to be a catalyst. 130 00:05:57,960 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 3: I think everyone's going to be listening because we did 131 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 3: get much right from the FOMC press conference or from 132 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 3: the statement itself, so maybe they're going to be listening 133 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 3: to see if he gives us little nuggets of information. 134 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 4: I feel like he's going to be very prepared and 135 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 4: have very. 136 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 3: Kind of answers that are going to fit what he 137 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 3: already spoke about at the FOMC. So I don't see 138 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 3: him coming out and giving us a lot of new information. 139 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 3: I think he'll be reiterating, but perhaps we get a 140 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 3: little more information on the task forces, what those look like, 141 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 3: what we're going to see in balance sheet, because look, 142 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 3: inflation's driven by money supply, right, and when we've got 143 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 3: a balance sheet that's affecting money supply, it's affecting what 144 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 3: into growth looks like, it's affecting what overnight lending rates 145 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 3: look like. 146 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 4: All of that feeds in. 147 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 3: Maybe we get a little bit of information there to 148 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 3: help the see where rates go ahead. 149 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: Stay with us. 150 00:06:49,760 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 2: Mulblenberg, Savannah's coming up off to this. Let's talk about chips. 151 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 2: What a run we've had, soaring demand for AI equipment 152 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 2: and memory, driving chip stocks to their best quarter on record. 153 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 2: Angelo Zeno of CFIRA with this to say, we remain 154 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 2: positive about the overall outlook for chip and ship equipment providers, 155 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 2: as we believe the first half of the year witness 156 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 2: a structural reset higher for data center spending. Angela joins 157 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 2: us now for more Angela, Welcome to the program. Do 158 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 2: you see any deceleration in that spending on the horizon? 159 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 7: I mean, John, I would say in terms of deceleration, 160 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 7: we'd expect to see some deceleration, just because the numbers 161 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 7: are going to get so large, right, But as we 162 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 7: kind of look here in the first half of the year, 163 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 7: I'd say it's been far from a deceleration. It's been 164 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 7: an acceleration in the spending levels. I'd say as we 165 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 7: kind of go into the second half, more so into 166 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 7: twenty twenty seven, yeah, there's going to be some deceleration, 167 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 7: but I think what's more important is the trajectory continues 168 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 7: to be positive, and as a result of that, you'll 169 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 7: continue to see the earnings growth across the space. 170 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 5: I was looking this morning at the job cut announcements 171 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 5: among big tech after the reporting on Microsoft cutting some 172 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 5: additional staff, Oracle twenty one thousand job cuts, Meta more 173 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 5: than eight thousand job cuts, Block more than four thousand 174 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 5: job cuts, all of this in part to help offset 175 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 5: the expense for all of the capex. How far are 176 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 5: we into this sort of capex over labor transition well. 177 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 7: If we're talking just the you know, it's interesting if 178 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 7: we're talking about just the cloud providers, you know, you know, clearly, 179 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 7: i'd say there's only so much you can kind of, 180 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 7: you know, take out of those companies. And we've taken 181 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 7: out a good amount of kind of the op X 182 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 7: costs or kind of the low hanging fruit, so i'd 183 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 7: say there's probably not much left. I mean, you'll probably 184 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 7: continue to see ongoing cuts from some of those cloud providers, 185 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 7: just on an as needed basis and ongoing efficiencies. 186 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 4: I'd say outside of. 187 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 7: You know, if we're talking more across the enterprise space, 188 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 7: that's probably early innings, and that's where you know, over 189 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 7: the next couple of years, we'd expect to see some 190 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 7: significant cost efficiencies. And that's where you would think some 191 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:05,319 Speaker 7: of the you know, some of the help in terms 192 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 7: of paying for the stuff is going to come from. 193 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 7: It's going to come from a combination of you know, 194 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 7: higher revenue from these cloud companies, you know, just overall, 195 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 7: you know, improvement and being able to monetize this stuff, 196 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 7: as well as through cost efficiencies. 197 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:22,599 Speaker 5: Angela John was mentioning this tours and slock note and 198 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 5: it was hinting at what we're seeing, which is an 199 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 5: increasing shift to Chinese open source models that essentially cause 200 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 5: very little or even potentially are free at a time 201 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 5: when they're really constrained about how many tokens they can 202 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 5: really spend. At what point do you see the cost 203 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 5: that people are willing to pay for the hyperscaler services 204 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 5: coming down so much that increasing volume isn't enough to 205 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 5: offset the declining revenues. 206 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 7: I mean, that's that's a great question. I mean, I 207 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 7: think when you kind of think about just how this 208 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 7: all this plays out, I mean, we continue to we 209 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 7: don't think there's an end insight in terms of the 210 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 7: new use cases that you know, when we think about 211 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 7: the what is driving demand, right, it is the fact 212 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 7: that you're going to continue to get new users that 213 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 7: start adapting to AI usage. I mean, even when you 214 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 7: start looking at the chat, GPTs, the Geminis users of 215 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 7: the world, you're still at fairly low levels on where 216 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 7: you can kind of get to here over the next 217 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 7: couple of years, let's call it a billion to potentially 218 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 7: four to five billion exiting the decade. When you start 219 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 7: thinking about just the frequency of use of the new 220 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 7: users as well as existing users, that's still got ways 221 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 7: to go, especially as the enterprise space just starts adopting 222 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 7: AI across their workloads. And then you know, of course 223 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 7: that compute per use is what's really kind of driven 224 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 7: this AI evolution here over the next couple of years, 225 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 7: the last couple of years, and we think still that's 226 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 7: you know, we think as you kind of go here 227 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 7: over the next couple of years, you're going to continue 228 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 7: to see greater usage of that. So, you know, I 229 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 7: think it's an interesting point. I think, you know, when 230 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 7: it's all said and done, I don't think it's going 231 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 7: to kind of stop when we stop the act AI 232 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 7: usage and kind of the adoption of AI and what 233 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 7: the potential here is going to be. And as a result, 234 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 7: I mean, you know, clearly as you start thinking about 235 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 7: the rest of the supply chain there there you would 236 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 7: think be you know, continued room to run when it comes. 237 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: To the end models. 238 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 6: I'd love to get your reaction on fable five now 239 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 6: being available once again to the public. This will include, 240 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 6: according to Anthropic, more collaboration with the United States, including 241 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 6: pre release access to models and safeguards for evaluation. Are 242 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 6: you expecting this across all AI models not just anthropic. 243 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 6: This closer relationship with the US government. 244 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 7: I think. So, I mean, I think you've also seen 245 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 7: open AI start to you know, make comments as well, 246 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 7: you know, as of late, you know, and them kind 247 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 7: of working closer with the US government as well. So 248 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 7: I would suspect as we kind of start thinking about 249 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 7: more of these leading edge models that are expected to 250 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 7: roll out here, you know, in the coming quarters and 251 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 7: years and what have you, I think there's there's going 252 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 7: to be greater scrutiny between you know, security and the 253 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 7: option you know, the the new capabilities that could come 254 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,719 Speaker 7: out with these new models, and as a result, you're 255 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 7: going to have to work with the US government to 256 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 7: some extent or kind of you know, make insure clearance 257 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 7: on that end. So yeah, I mean i'd expect to 258 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 7: see more of that as we kind of look ahead. 259 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 7: I think it is a positive that we've we've kind 260 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 7: of gotten the thumbs up to roll this stuff out 261 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 7: in terms of you know, the ongoing adoption, the new 262 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,959 Speaker 7: capabilities that we could potentially see here from AI stay with. 263 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 2: Us, more Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this, plus tend 264 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 2: to autos this and and Vanning gets vision for an 265 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 2: AI defined Vehicle, announcing plans to use kind of GAGE 266 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 2: software to strink development times and fast track autonomous driving 267 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 2: technology across ninety percent of its lineup. Joining us now 268 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 2: is this and president and CEO if An Espinosa. If 269 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 2: I'm good to see you, sir, Thanks for being us. 270 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,200 Speaker 2: Good morning with us here in New York. One question, okay, 271 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 2: and then we're going to move on quickly. I promise 272 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 2: how many cars have you sold in sea breeze blue 273 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 2: pearl in the last few months since a well known 274 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 2: manufacturer came out with a very expensive car in what 275 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 2: looked like sea breeze blue pearl. 276 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 8: Well, it was a surprise for us to see this 277 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 8: car coming out because it is coincidentally the same color 278 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 8: emblematic color that we use for our launch of Veniss 279 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 8: and Leaves, So it was an interesting surprise. 280 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 2: I would say, I'll move on quickly for you so 281 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 2: we don't have to talk about it too much. Let's 282 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 2: talk about the new cars. Can you describe for our 283 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 2: audience the future of driving and what it's going to 284 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 2: look like, because if you think about what it's been 285 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 2: like for the last century, it really hasn't changed too much. 286 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 2: Four wheels a driver, a wheel. You know, that's how 287 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 2: it works. It gets better, technology improves, but we haven't 288 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,719 Speaker 2: seen massive changes. How different is it going to be 289 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 2: in the future. 290 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 8: This is going to completely evolve. So we're working a 291 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 8: lot with AI technology to bring the cars into a 292 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,079 Speaker 8: full autonomous end to end experience where you simply sit 293 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 8: in the car behind the wheel, the car will take 294 00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 8: over for you. Let's say you know, I'm living in Japan, 295 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 8: and so let's say you go and play golf on 296 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 8: the weekend. If you enjoy driving, maybe you enjoy driving 297 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 8: in the morning towards the golf course, you drive by yourself, 298 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 8: but then on the way back there's usually a lot 299 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 8: of traffic, so you'll just ask the car to drive 300 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 8: for yourself, engage the autonomous mode, and then you can 301 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 8: just either relax, check your news. There's a lot of 302 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 8: things that you can do with the people's time while 303 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 8: they're sitting in the cabin because we have two massive 304 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 8: screens in front of them and then we can feed 305 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 8: a lot of information. We can make their lives more productive, entertainment. 306 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 8: There's a lot of things that we are we are 307 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 8: imagining for the future. 308 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 2: Development times or an interesting piece of this as well. 309 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 2: I'd love to bring some life into that conversation. If 310 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 2: you're in a car lot right now and you're trying 311 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 2: to sell individual cars, it's a dream. If you work 312 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 2: from manufacturer that can't lead times for development and bring 313 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 2: new cars to market, it has them sell, right, have 314 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 2: them sell. That's what a lot of companies are looking for. 315 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 2: How's this going to change too. 316 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 8: Well, we have evolved a lot, you know, in the 317 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 8: past eighteen months, we have shortened our development processes around 318 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 8: forty percent. So now we are able of putting new 319 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 8: cars on the road in thirty months from the concept 320 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 8: moment all the way to the startup production thirty months 321 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 8: for a global development car. So this is a speed 322 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 8: that Nissa has now and it's helping us adjust a 323 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 8: lot of our launching schedules. And it's the future because 324 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 8: the world is so unpredictable these days. We used to 325 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 8: be a company that put a lot of energy forecasting 326 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 8: and trying to predict what will happen in the future. 327 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 8: But this is impossible now, you know, with all the 328 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 8: geopolitics and play on the context in which we live 329 00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 8: is very complicated. So we decided to put our energy 330 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 8: just on being a nibbler and quicker company because this 331 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 8: is a way to cope with the uncertainty of the world. 332 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 8: And as I said, we have reduced our development times 333 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 8: now at forty percent. 334 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: It does seem like these two things right. Odd's right. 335 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: On one hand, you've got the technological advancement that can. 336 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 5: Speed things up, and then you've got policy that's just 337 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 5: completely all over the place when it comes to things 338 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 5: like autonomous driving and how you even test it. I mean, 339 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 5: where do you think you're going to see the acceleration 340 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 5: of autonomous driving and nissance market? The fast is just 341 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 5: based on what you're allowed to test, you're allowed to 342 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 5: roll out. 343 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 8: Well, I think we need to go step by step. 344 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 8: That technology today is actually ready. You can with the 345 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 8: technology that we are working today with our partner Wave 346 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 8: actually it's almost level for ready, so it means completely 347 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 8: a driver less car. But we need to go step 348 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 8: by step, not only because of the regulators, but also 349 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 8: because of the consumers. We don't want the consumers to 350 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 8: suddenly be a verse of the technology. We need to 351 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 8: do one step at a time, and we will gradually 352 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 8: introduce this technology. We're starting with our products in Japan. 353 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 8: We will have a first end to end capable car, 354 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 8: which is called il Grand. We will launch at the 355 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 8: end of the next fiscal year twenty seven, and then 356 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 8: we will gradually roll out this technology all over the world. 357 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 8: We want to have the technology applied in as much 358 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 8: as ninety as much as ninety percent of our lineup. 359 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 8: So that technology is really promisingly, super exciting and it's 360 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 8: the future of the automobile. 361 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 5: There also have been all of these international modes that 362 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 5: have been created, particularly with the auto sector in the 363 00:16:57,480 --> 00:16:58,359 Speaker 5: United States. 364 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: How much do you see the week or. 365 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 5: Yet as an offset to that, given the fact that 366 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 5: maybe you could even offer cheaper price or you know, 367 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 5: have some sort of ability to maneuver on that competitive 368 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 5: a golf. 369 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 8: Well, actually, the world again, as I was saying, is 370 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 8: very unpredictable, so you need to head through vettes and 371 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 8: you need to remain flexible. And this is what we're 372 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,159 Speaker 8: doing our industrial footprint. One of the beauties that it 373 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 8: has is that we are so widely spread around the 374 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 8: world that we have the ability to pivot depending on 375 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 8: what happens with One thing is a for X exchange, 376 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 8: but you have other things like policy like new rules, emissions, 377 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 8: there's so many things happening all over the place that 378 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 8: you need to remain very nimble and you know, very 379 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 8: widely spread and play a good strategy. 380 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 6: But specifically to Lisa's point, with the strengthening of the 381 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 6: dollar the weakening of the end, are you going to 382 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 6: at this moment change any of your plans to capitalize 383 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 6: on that? 384 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 8: No, we will continue the strategy that we have said 385 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 8: in the US, which is building cars in the US. 386 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 8: We have two very large manufacturing sites, one in Spyrna, Tennessee, 387 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 8: the other kind of Mississippi, and we will continue doing that. 388 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 8: So to give you some numbers, last year January, around 389 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 8: forty five percent of our product mix was built in 390 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 8: the US. The rest was imported from either Japan or Mexico. 391 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 8: And we close a year with sixty percent of our 392 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 8: product makes being built in the US. And we will 393 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 8: continue doing that because it makes sense. With the current 394 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 8: context in which we're living, it does make sense to 395 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 8: continue investing in the US and continue bringing more cars 396 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 8: into North America. 397 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 6: Given the current tariff environment. I believe for every auto 398 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 6: produced in Mexico's about two or three thousand dollars more. 399 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 1: What are you doing with that? 400 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 6: How much is being passed on to the consumer and 401 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 6: how much are you just absorbing. 402 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 8: Well, we have a very aggressive cost reduction program which 403 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 8: we started a year ago and I took over the company, 404 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 8: and we are focusing a lot on the products that 405 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 8: are built in Mexico because they are cost competitive. But 406 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 8: it's true they are currently tireth twenty five percent, which 407 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 8: is it is making part of the lineup that we're 408 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 8: being in for Mexico difficult to sell. So we have 409 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 8: a very strong cost reduction program in those vehicles because 410 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 8: we do see an opportunity, you know, looking at the 411 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 8: pressure that the US market has today in terms of affordability, 412 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 8: we see that potentially some of the buyers could be 413 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 8: moving into these. 414 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: Type of vehicles. 415 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 8: So we are working very strongly on making them more competitive, 416 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,199 Speaker 8: so we can probably take advantage of that. 417 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 2: If you think, can we wrap it up by talking 418 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 2: about China? Sure, how difficult is it to compete with 419 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 2: Chinese or the manufacturers? 420 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 8: Well, China is a world of his zone. I would 421 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 8: say it's a very unique ecosystem. See unique, I think 422 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 8: the technology, speed costs are They're moving at the very 423 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 8: different speed than the rest of the world, and for me, 424 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 8: it's important to remain present in China because I believe 425 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 8: a lot of the future standards of the industry are 426 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 8: being set by some of the Chinese players today, again 427 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 8: in terms of speed, in terms of costs, and in 428 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 8: terms of technology. So for me, the role of China 429 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,919 Speaker 8: is twofold. One is of course continuing to produce and 430 00:19:55,960 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 8: sell cars in China because we have over fifteen million 431 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 8: users of need some products in that country, so we 432 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 8: owe them product that is competitive and that is attractive 433 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 8: for them. But at the same time, it's a place 434 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 8: where you can learn a lot and you can start 435 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 8: exporting some of the methods, some of the processes and 436 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:17,360 Speaker 8: new ways of working that we have discovered. 437 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 2: An example, what can we learn from what they've done 438 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 2: it and an industry right now that they seem to 439 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 2: be dominating. 440 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 4: Well. 441 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 8: One of the things is when you look at the 442 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 8: products in China today, almost eighty percent of the product 443 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 8: that are offered have autonomous technology embedded, and customers are 444 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 8: now not considering to buy a car if you don't 445 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 8: offer some level of autonomous technology. So this is just 446 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 8: an example of what can happen and what we can 447 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 8: imagine coming out from this unique ecosystem that they have. 448 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Savanics podcast, bringing you the best 449 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, angio politics. You can watch the show 450 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 2: live on bloombog TV weekday mornings from six am to 451 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 452 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the 453 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Term and the Bloomberg Business out MHM