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Speaker 1: This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that

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Speaker 1: code well. Joining me now. Is one of arguably the

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Speaker 1: world's most foremost experts on all things Russia, at least

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Speaker 1: and has played that role for UH currently at a

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Speaker 1: Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute, but served on the

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Speaker 1: National Security Council, the specialization on Russia in the first

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Speaker 1: Trump administration. That is Fiona Hill. And it's good to

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Speaker 1: see you.

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Speaker 2: It's been a while, see you too.

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Speaker 1: Not much is going on in the world, and and

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Speaker 1: and and what's happening. But in all serious let's start

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Speaker 1: with sort of Russia's role with Iran, and let me

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Speaker 1: start with before we get into sort of the current

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Speaker 1: sort of what are they doing and all this stuff,

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Speaker 1: how would you describe that alliance and make a comparison

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Speaker 1: of that alliance to an alliance that the US has

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Speaker 1: with a with a country that what's the most similar

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Speaker 1: alliance that Russian and Iran have that you would say

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Speaker 1: the United States mirrors.

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Speaker 2: It's a very loose alliance, let's put it that way. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, the United States has had so many formal

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Speaker 2: alliances with countries, you know that it's hard to do,

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Speaker 2: you know, kind of a really neat comparison because it's

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Speaker 2: not a formal alliance between Russia and Iran, and there's

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Speaker 2: all kinds of expressions of friendship and partnership, but it

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Speaker 2: really doesn't kind of amount to, you know, very much

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Speaker 2: beyond the declarative.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's vendors for each other, you know,

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Speaker 1: they just sell stuff to each other.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's I mean, one might quip that

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Speaker 2: the way that you know, Trump has been treating some

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Speaker 2: of the traditional US allies that might actually become more comparable,

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Speaker 2: you know, very critical about them not seeing you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of a sense of obligation or they're expecting them,

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Speaker 2: you know, to do things for him, you know, VISI

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Speaker 2: VI this war. In fact, I mean the UK comes

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Speaker 2: you know obviously to mind. But you know, Russia and Iran,

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Speaker 2: you have a very complex and deeply historical relationship. I

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Speaker 2: mean going back to the Persian and Russian empires, and

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Speaker 2: you know, they've they've clashed historically at many times. They

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Speaker 2: have you know, territories that they've fall over, you know,

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Speaker 2: including in the Caucasus regions they had, you know, their

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Speaker 2: empires had you know, peoples that they're divided between them,

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Speaker 2: and Russia had come to rely in Iran in the

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Speaker 2: period since nineteen seventy nine, established into the theocracy as

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Speaker 2: a kind of stabilizing force, particularly in the Muslim world,

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Speaker 2: because Russia has had its most problems with its own

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Speaker 2: sunny Muslim population. It has a sheer population. It's very

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Speaker 2: small and mostly Azadi ethnic Azerdies who have coursed a

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Speaker 2: you know, big bulk of the non Persian you know,

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Speaker 2: ethnic groups inside of Iran itself, and of course we

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Speaker 2: have the independent state of Azerbijan. But you know, there

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Speaker 2: wasn't really you know, any way in which you know,

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Speaker 2: Russia saw Iran as a particular threat within its territory

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Speaker 2: now in the modern times, and much more as a

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Speaker 2: kind of a like minded an enemy of my enemy,

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Speaker 2: as my friend.

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Speaker 1: Convenience really more than anything.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but a bit more than that. I mean, when

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Speaker 2: you look at tre it's not surprising to find that,

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Speaker 2: you know, the trade is in the same kind of

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Speaker 2: dimensions that you know, trade with Iran is with lots

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Speaker 2: of other countries. Carpets and pistachios and you know, all

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Speaker 2: kinds of you know, food stuffs. Russia, you know, shares

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Speaker 2: the Caspian you know sea and you know that base

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Speaker 2: and with Iran as well, but you know, obviously has

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Speaker 2: its own oil and gas. But it was really that

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Speaker 2: kind of role that Iran plays as far as Russia

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Speaker 2: was concerted, a sort of predictable even if you know,

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Speaker 2: complex neighbor that could help it sort of settle issues.

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Speaker 2: And then more recently with the war in Ukraine, that

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Speaker 2: shifted quite dramatically, with Russia tapping into Iran's development of

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Speaker 2: the Shihi drones, which of course we're now seeing you know,

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Speaker 2: on full display. Not just in Ukraine but now being

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Speaker 2: used across the Gulf, and Iran provided Russia with those

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Speaker 2: drones during the war in Ukraine, effectively became a partner

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Speaker 2: with Russia in the war against Ukraine, helped them build

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Speaker 2: a factory.

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Speaker 1: And you know, you know, I'd been a bit of

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Speaker 1: a head scratcher to me that with Trump's obsession with Iran,

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Speaker 1: that he didn't view what they were doing with Russia

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Speaker 1: more negatively on Russia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it is a bit of head scratcher, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: But I mean I think that that shows that, you know,

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Speaker 2: Trump tends to think of things in a you know,

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Speaker 2: pretty bilateral fashion. He thinks of his relationship with Russia

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Speaker 2: as just that that it almost exists in a vacuum

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Speaker 2: when with Putin, and he thinks about it as if

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Speaker 2: it doesn't interact with everything else. And I think that

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Speaker 2: that's part of the problem that we're now seeing in

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Speaker 2: the Middle East, where there hasn't been you know, full

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Speaker 2: thinking about what the second and third order consequences might

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Speaker 2: be and how you know, kind of basically firing on

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Speaker 2: on Iran might have all of these knock on effects

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Speaker 2: on all of these other relationships. You can't just separate

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Speaker 2: them all out. And many people have been trying to

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Speaker 2: make that point, myself included for years that you know,

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Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine had become a global conflict, I

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Speaker 2: mean not just another war in Europe, you know, the

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Speaker 2: third in a century, a major land war, but because

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Speaker 2: it brought in Iran and China and North Korea in

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Speaker 2: on support of Russia, because they all saw it as

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Speaker 2: a proxy war with the United States and Iran most notably.

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Speaker 1: If you're Iran, are you disappointed in what Russia and

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Speaker 1: China have done as allies are not?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I think you are disappointed, But at the same

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Speaker 2: time it might be what you expect, because you know,

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Speaker 2: you yourself are not exactly the best of our lives

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Speaker 2: for other countries either. I mean these are all very transactional.

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Speaker 2: I mean Iran has a very particular war view, so

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Speaker 2: the Russia, to China, so North Korea. I mean a

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Speaker 2: lot of their decisions are based on, you know, how

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Speaker 2: things affect their interests. I mean they're very nakedly transactional.

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Speaker 2: I mean this is hardly in the sort of Chinese

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Speaker 2: and you know, Iranian in a sense of their relationshiply

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Speaker 2: just with Russian melding of the minds. I mean, one

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Speaker 2: is the theocracy he wants. Toll has a communist party.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yes, these are all again ancient empires who

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Speaker 2: kind of see it as their own right, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of a divine right in many respects, and certainly

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Speaker 2: from Iran to basically drive their own civilizational perspective. I

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Speaker 2: mean around sees itself as a civilization, not just as

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Speaker 2: a country, which I mean I think perhaps you know,

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Speaker 2: Trump and the people around him seem to have forgotten

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Speaker 2: and you know, they all feel that they have, you know,

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Speaker 2: the right to exert themselves, the right to nuclear weapons,

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Speaker 2: you know, the right to have their own interests and

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Speaker 2: to conduct their own foreign policy without regard to the

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Speaker 2: United States, and you know they bind together or bound

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Speaker 2: together then band together. I've kind of used the wrong

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Speaker 2: kind of term there, They band together without being bound

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Speaker 2: together as what I was trying to say, you know,

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Speaker 2: when it comes to their own interests being affected in

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Speaker 2: some way, and that where there's a sort of shared

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Speaker 2: concern about interests that overlap, but it's not that they're

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Speaker 2: bound to each other in terms of any obligations in

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Speaker 2: any ways. So I don't think you know, the Eroons

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Speaker 2: were really expecting the Russians to come in on their

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Speaker 2: side here.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's just interesting that we've when you look at

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Speaker 1: whether it's Syria, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Iran, throw

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Speaker 1: it maybe Cuba, there's a lot of these sort of

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Speaker 1: I don't know what you call them, Russian friends, you know,

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Speaker 1: allies might be too strong of a word, but certainly

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Speaker 1: places where and they every one of these countries also

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Speaker 1: had good relationships with China. China has chosen not to

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Speaker 1: really help any of these folks. Russia has a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I guess if I were in their shoes,

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Speaker 1: I would let the US punch themselves out. I would

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Speaker 1: do what was an old you know, what was called

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Speaker 1: during the days of boxing ropodope, you know, the MOhm

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Speaker 1: and Ali. Go ahead and puntch yourself out, George Forman,

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Speaker 1: and then you'll get tired and I will get everything

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Speaker 1: I want at a bargain or when you're tired and

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Speaker 1: easier to deal with. Is that what you think China's

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Speaker 1: up to in particular for them not really helping any

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Speaker 1: of these countries that we've bullied around.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that is the case. I mean I've got a

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Speaker 2: lot of colleagues here at the Brookings Institution who you know,

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Speaker 2: obviously work very closely on China. And you know, one

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Speaker 2: colleague had the opportunity the medic Security Conference, you know,

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Speaker 2: to put to a pretty senior Chinese you know, representative

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Speaker 2: there about the case of Ukraine. And I've got other

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Speaker 2: colleagues who have done the same and saying, look, you know,

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Speaker 2: this obviously is detrimental to you. You had no beef with Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: You know, why is it, you know, of any benefit

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Speaker 2: when you had your own desires to invest in Ukraine

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Speaker 2: over the long term and agricultural, all kinds of things.

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Speaker 2: To see it ruined. You know, why do you want

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Speaker 2: Russia to win in Ukraine? And you know, basically the

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Speaker 2: Chinese interlocker has said, well, if we wanted them to win,

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Speaker 2: they would have won, which obviously hasn't happened.

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Speaker 1: That's an interesting what does that mean? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean what it means is, look, we're really

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Speaker 2: you know, not doing you know, kind of a great

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Speaker 2: deal you know here to help them. Although that's actually

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Speaker 2: not really true because they're giving you know, a lot

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Speaker 2: of support in various words, although they're charging a high premium,

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Speaker 2: which is the kind of thing Russia does too. They

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Speaker 2: don't do you any favors without a cost. You know,

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Speaker 2: China is helping Russia to obtain all kinds of goods

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Speaker 2: and those kinds of you know, high technology that they

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Speaker 2: actually need to keep the warrifor going. But they're charging

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Speaker 2: them at premium. They're not making it easy for them.

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Speaker 2: They're not saying how quick you know, I have these,

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Speaker 2: but you know, they're not really exerting themselves to help

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Speaker 2: them in any way. And you just also refer to

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Speaker 2: that that's really kind of what Russia is doing with Iran.

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Speaker 2: They have been sending them technology and response to the

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Speaker 2: fact that they've got the Shahi drones and they've got

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Speaker 2: the kind of modular manufacturing patterns and you know, helped

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Speaker 2: the Uranians help them set up a factory to produce

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Speaker 2: their own They've you know, we've had reports that they've

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Speaker 2: given some kinds of intelligence, although we don't know exactly

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Speaker 2: you know, what that might be. And Steve Whitcoff, you know,

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Speaker 2: recently some all the Russians told us we didn't so

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Speaker 2: you know, let's not go down that puppet.

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Speaker 1: Shouldn't take the Iranians witcough thought the Iranians were pulling

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Speaker 1: the wool over their eyes, but the Russians always takes

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Speaker 1: them of their word.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, you see, this is you know,

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Speaker 2: part of the issue we're dealing with. Everybody deals with

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Speaker 2: everything in silos and stove pipes, and you know, from

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Speaker 2: the point of view of you know, what they see here.

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Speaker 2: But look, it's still fair to say, getting back to

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Speaker 2: the point that you're making here, that both Russia and

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Speaker 2: China are kind of watching to see how this all

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Speaker 2: plays out, and they think that probably you know, the

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Speaker 2: United States will you know, do what most countries in

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Speaker 2: the United States has done before, get itself into a

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Speaker 2: hell of a mess in the Middle East, and that

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Speaker 2: they can just watch and you know, see what happens next.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yes, you know, Russia has lost the footing

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Speaker 2: that it had previously in Syria. This is not great,

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Speaker 2: you know that kind of what's happened with Iotola Hamini

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Speaker 2: because you know Putin was you know, quite close. There's

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Speaker 2: one can be close to the Itola, but hey, it's

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Speaker 2: the Iola Sun now, you know, And in fact, you

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Speaker 2: might have gotten even harder line, you know, kind of

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Speaker 2: version if that's even possible those I would like to.

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Speaker 1: See a little proof of life here and the sun

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Speaker 1: we get to see any proof of.

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Speaker 2: Well exactly that is that is true, but I mean that.

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Speaker 2: But the Russians are kind of expecting that it might go.

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Speaker 2: So the Russians and Chinese have been around a long while, right,

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Speaker 2: and they're kind of expecting that things kind of might

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Speaker 2: play out in a way that is detrimental to the

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Speaker 2: United States. You know, they've had their own experiences, particularly

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Speaker 2: the Russians in Afghanistan. You know, they all kind of

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Speaker 2: know what happens in these imperial wars, and that's exactly

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Speaker 2: what's happening to Russia and Ukraine. Special military operations turn

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Speaker 2: into quagmires. That's exactly what's happened, you know, for Russia.

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Speaker 2: And you know, the United States they believe because the politics,

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Speaker 2: the domestic upheaval, all the things that you know they

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Speaker 2: watched are going on, you know, might find itself in

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Speaker 2: quite a predicament and then they might be able to

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Speaker 2: kind of sweep in and take advantage. So it's just

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Speaker 2: like you said, it's the ropodope, you know, just as

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Speaker 2: watch them exhaust themselves putin doesn't box, but he did

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Speaker 2: play judo, and you know that would be also you

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Speaker 2: work for your opponent over multiple tournaments to you know,

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Speaker 2: get themselves into trouble, your top opponent, and then you

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Speaker 2: know you kind of just take advantage and literally use

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Speaker 2: their strength against them, you know, to get them to

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Speaker 2: the match. So I think, you know, for now they're thinking, okay,

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Speaker 2: you know this well.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, it's what it looks. You know,

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Speaker 1: if I'm the Russians, you darn right, I'm going to

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Speaker 1: help the Iranians because anything that bogs down the US

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Speaker 1: makes Ukraine's life harder.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely right spot on. You know, So when the United

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Speaker 2: States was thinking about what was happening or what they

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Speaker 2: wanted to do in Iran, were they also think about

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Speaker 2: how this was all interconnected. You know, we've had a

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Speaker 2: debate about whether Trump had the right to you know,

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Speaker 2: it hasn't redeclared. What has he I mean to kind

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Speaker 2: of launch this assault on Iran, you know, without all

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Speaker 2: of the you know, other constitutional requirements that everybody's thinking about.

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Speaker 2: But we haven't been asking what did they do in

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Speaker 2: terms of deliberating or the first, second, third, and fourth

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Speaker 2: order consequences and how everything was intertwined because so many

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Speaker 2: times people from the administration have said that they prefer

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Speaker 2: to disentangle these you know, thorny knots of problems and

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Speaker 2: deal with one issue at a time. But unfortunately all

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Speaker 2: of these things are all raveled together.

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Speaker 1: And you I know, and he you know, this comes

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Speaker 1: back to the principle he hates multilateralism, right. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if he hates it because he can't understand it,

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Speaker 1: or he just life is simpler for him if every

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Speaker 1: relationship is binary, everything is transactional, whether it's in the

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Speaker 1: personal or in the professional or whatever it is. But

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Speaker 1: he does, he he almost hates to think about the

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Speaker 1: interconnectivity of things. You've spent some time with him, I mean,

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Speaker 1: is that that the impression you got of him in

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Speaker 1: the first term.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, And look in the second term. You know, many

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Speaker 2: of the people around him have made that very explicit

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Speaker 2: playing it out, just as you said that it's almost

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Speaker 2: as if we all these issues exist in the vacuum.

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Speaker 2: Well they don't. And you know, when you think about

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Speaker 2: Iran and the kind of intelligence that the United States

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Speaker 2: would have, you know, collected in the past and Iran

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Speaker 2: and we still have some you know, great.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it's all derivative of Israel's intel?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think some of it would have come from

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Speaker 2: our role, but all of that is also derivative, right,

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Speaker 2: It's not just you know, from one thread. I mean

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Speaker 2: the United States is part of what was the Five Eyes,

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Speaker 2: if that still exists in terms of a you know,

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Speaker 2: a realistic grouping. Yeah, well, I mean the question is,

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Speaker 2: you know, as Canada was Canada consultant, was the UK?

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Speaker 2: You know, Australia, you know New Zealand. I mean they

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Speaker 2: might have had you know, a lot of information. Certainly

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Speaker 2: the Gold States would have done. But if you're only

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Speaker 2: maybe asking the Saudis, I mean this is obviously of

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Speaker 2: existential import for the Gold States, given you know their

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Speaker 2: proximity and you know all the interactions we see it now,

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Speaker 2: I mean, all the damage that's been done to them,

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Speaker 2: just like Ukraine was of existential input for Europeans and

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Speaker 2: Trump was pretty lax at are basically consulting you know,

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Speaker 2: with them as well. So this is just part of,

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Speaker 2: you know, a pattern where there's this sort of feeling

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Speaker 2: by Trump and the people around him that you know,

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Speaker 2: we have all the power, we have all the intellectual capacity,

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Speaker 2: that we need. We have all the information that we need.

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Speaker 2: We don't have to consult with anyone else, and we

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Speaker 2: don't have to, inversity, take a full spectrum, comprehensive view

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Speaker 2: of something before we act. We can just figure out

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Speaker 2: as we go along.

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Speaker 1: Were you still in the administration when he made the

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Speaker 1: decision to get solemony?

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Speaker 2: No, I was not. No, I'd left, okay, and that

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Speaker 2: would probably embolden them though along that.

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm wondering right.

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Speaker 2: With what happened with Maduro, because the low back that

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Speaker 2: people predicting never came right from.

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Speaker 1: His A lot of people maybe maybe this time it

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Speaker 1: wasn't you telling him. It might have been another expert

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Speaker 1: letting him know, Okay, if you do this, here are

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Speaker 1: the potential fallouts, you know, and then none of it happens. Right,

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Speaker 1: He touches the hot stove and he doesn't burn his hand, Yeah, Solomony,

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Speaker 1: And he touches it again with Maduro, and frankly, he

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Speaker 1: did it again in last July with the bunker buster bombs.

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Speaker 1: Oh well, that didn't set off a wide ranging.

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Speaker 2: The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

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Speaker 1: That didn't say anything.

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Speaker 2: You know, all of these because I remember all of this,

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Speaker 2: people would say, well, there'll be problems, and you know,

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Speaker 2: that's our job. We're always supposed to be prepared to

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Speaker 2: be the world's worst pessimists.

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Speaker 1: Right right, But that's your job. And the National Security

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Speaker 1: Council is.

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Speaker 2: You know, I mean, I'm a nightmera at home. You know, hey,

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Speaker 2: look at that. You know this could be all in

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Speaker 2: my office, you know, or something like this. I'm always

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Speaker 2: thinking about the worst that you know, the ceiling could fall,

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Speaker 2: you know, and then the consequences will be the you know.

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Speaker 2: And so for someone like Trump is like, okay, all

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Speaker 2: of these people, you know, these so called smart people,

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Speaker 2: these experts who say the experts told me this would

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Speaker 2: happen and it didn't. Well, the fact is that, you know,

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Speaker 2: those are some of the contingency You've got to bear

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Speaker 2: in mind, because you know, one could say from the

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Speaker 2: Abraham Accords, right that, you know, there wasn't the reaction

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Speaker 2: from the Palestinians that they thought there would be right

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Speaker 2: away to all of the kind of decisions about Jerusalem,

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Speaker 2: or you know, the the cords between Israel and you know,

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Speaker 2: other Gold States, and then there was OC Chapter seven,

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Speaker 2: you know, so one might be able to posit that

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Speaker 2: that was you know, one of those consequences, but you know,

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Speaker 2: the direct line of causality wasn't as clear, and so

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Speaker 2: I mean that's the kind of same thing that we

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Speaker 2: know we're dealing with here. You know that if the

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Speaker 2: immediate impact isn't felt, you know, in some cases there's

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Speaker 2: an immediate cause and effect. I know this it might

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Speaker 2: take some time to play out. I mean, look, I

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Speaker 2: think in many respects we're all dealing with a post

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Speaker 2: nine to eleven Osma bin Laden, you know, attack world,

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Speaker 2: because it's all those kind of knocking effects, some decisions

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Speaker 2: that were made in that context to go into Afghanistan

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Speaker 2: then to go into a rack against the back of that,

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Speaker 2: even though you know there wasn't any direct linkage, but

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Speaker 2: it's just it's shaped a whole frame for the way

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Speaker 2: that we thought about things. And you know that's what's

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Speaker 2: happening here as well.

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Speaker 1: Do you buy that NBS was one of the folks

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Speaker 1: advocating for these for this joint strike with the Israelis that?

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Speaker 1: You know? There's that big Washington Post story that it

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Speaker 1: wasn't just Israel that was talking Trump into this, that

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430
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 1: they're the protector of these important monuments and these important

431
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 1: touchsdownes of the of the of the Muslim religion, and

432
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:50,120
Speaker 1: so they they haven't they haven't fought back per se.

433
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 1: But do you buy that did he push that he

434
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 1: helped convince Trump?

435
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 2: I don't know what to think. I mean, maybe he

436
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 2: didn't dissuade him. Maybe that could be the point, right, So,

437
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 2: I mean, I know enough about the saucing for that story.

438
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 2: It wasn't massively picked up in other public cations.

439
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: It wasn't and there wasn't any And now you get

440
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 1: the sense that the Saudis are given off a hey,

441
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: this is not what we had in mind. Yeah, I mean,

442
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 1: they're not happy now for sure.

443
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: So think about this in another context, you know, which

444
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: I know more about, which is the meeting between Putin

445
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 2: and She and Beijing literally on the eve of Putin's decision,

446
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 2: you know, to go in full on invasion into Ukraine.

447
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 2: You know, Putin and She basically declared this limitless partnership,

448
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 2: and you know, they have all these wonderful press conference meetings.

449
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 2: The next thing, it looks like she has then given

450
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 2: the green light or even encouragement to put them to

451
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 2: go into a special multi operation. The Chinese have been

452
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 2: constantly ever since going No. Actually, you know, we kind

453
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 2: of thought something different was happening. You know, we didn't

454
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: really do that, which I think you know.

455
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: About the Chinese that they didn't see that. How did

456
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 1: they not see that coming? Seemed like we saw it coming.

457
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: Well, I think that they well exactly, which is one

458
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: of the reasons. I mean, so many people didn't expect

459
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 2: that Putin would do it because they could see disaster

460
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: brewing as a result. But the Chinese might have been

461
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: more persuaded, or she might have been more persuaded that

462
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 2: special military operation would be just that the kind of

463
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 2: thing that they might launch in for example, or you know,

464
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 2: or they've seen the Soviet Union, do you know, in

465
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 2: the past in Hungary or what was then Czechoslovakia. I mean,

466
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 2: those were short, sharp, bloody yes interventions, you know, to

467
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 2: whip the Hungarians and the Czechoslovaks in fifty six and

468
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: sixty eight into shape. And I'm sure that that's what

469
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 2: Putin thought he was doing, but instead he unleashed what

470
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 2: has become, you know, the largest land war in Europe

471
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 2: since World War Two, with more casualties to Russia than

472
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union had in the Afghanistan was twenty times

473
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: the casualty rate. And this is Russia, which is a

474
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 2: portion a smaller portion of what the Soviet Union was.

475
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: Is catastrophic in so many respects. But they didn't anticipate that,

476
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 2: you know, And I see and I think you know

477
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 2: that gets in too, you know, did the Saudis think?

478
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 2: And again I can't speak to it, because you know,

479
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 2: this was literally just you know, another of these you know,

480
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:13,360
Speaker 2: quick blows, you know, and they wouldn't be pummeling you know, Tehran,

481
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 2: you know, in the same way that you know we've

482
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: seen happening elsewhere in the Middle East. I mean, this

483
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 2: is you know, pretty astounding.

484
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 1: Well it looks, I mean from that perspective.

485
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: As well as you said, you know, because I mean

486
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 2: they're the religious sites so important to his Lam. But

487
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 2: the Iolo Homony Homony was Hormony before him, a major

488
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,679
Speaker 2: religious leader of another sect of his Lam, So you know,

489
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 2: this is also pretty serious from their perspective.

490
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 1: You know. Look, you as well as anybody can know

491
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 1: working for Donald Trump. So I'm not going to sit

492
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: here and sell sell it anymore. I think he's a

493
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: very hard you know, I vacillate. I think he's actually

494
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 1: very easy to read. I always joke I'd love to

495
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 1: play poker with him, because he doesn't really he sort

496
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 1: of he wears everything on his sleeve. He tells you

497
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: everything he's thinking.

498
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 2: The cars, I'm saying, look at this, like I'll grab

499
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 2: my cars.

500
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: I know, I know, you might as well just hold

501
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: his cards the other way. I think I wonder if

502
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 1: you concur with this. I know he's going to want

503
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: to get out of this. I just you know, he

504
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: knows it. It's like, however it's gone, it's not the

505
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: way he knows. It's bad politics. You just you can

506
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: reverse course on tariffs. You can't unbomb Tehran. And so,

507
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: knowing he wants to get out, how would you help

508
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 1: him get out of this jam he's in. What would

509
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 1: that look like? Given what he's in the middle of

510
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 1: right now, It'd.

511
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 2: Be very hard to help him because you know, he's

512
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 2: thrown in his lot. Also with Israel in this regard,

513
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 2: the obviously has she has got some pretty clear objectives.

514
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,199
Speaker 1: They want regime change. They make it crystal clear. The

515
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: Prime Minister's X feed is all about this.

516
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that makes not making it very clear that

517
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 2: they want to make sure that Iran is not a

518
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 2: threat right which.

519
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: And under after October seventh, sort of like us after

520
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 1: nine to eleven, we're not going to let this al

521
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: Qaeda wherever they go. We're chasing them down. You know

522
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: we I can't sit here and say we wouldn't behave

523
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 1: the exact same way because oh, by the way, we did.

524
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look we've seen what happened in Gaza. I

525
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: mean they reduced the players to rubble to make sure

526
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: that they've you know, eliminated the threat. And you know,

527
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 2: we're trending, you know, in a direction, in a run

528
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: where we're going to have a Jesus yeah, I mean exactly.

529
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,479
Speaker 2: So we're seeing here very clear what ams by Israel

530
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 2: that they're not going to be deterred. And I mean

531
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 2: because it's existential to their security. And you know Iran, Yes,

532
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: I mean, Trump can make a case, and we can

533
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 2: all make the case, and he keeps making it all

534
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 2: the time, lots and lots of different russianals. Why you know,

535
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 2: going after I run at least, going after the Ioler

536
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 2: and after the leadership, you know, made sense. You know,

537
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:52,959
Speaker 2: we can we can take it at first value and

538
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 2: forty seven years of a probably festering situation. But you know,

539
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 2: beyond getting rid of the regime, neutralizing completely the nuclear

540
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 2: UH program, what is the rest of our own I

541
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 2: mean because again Trump has already said and this, this

542
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: was his way to try to get out of it.

543
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: He wanted to do what you did in Venezuela. Well,

544
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,919
Speaker 2: well that's ridiculous. You know one thing again, Venezuela is

545
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 2: not a millennium multi millennia or civilization.

546
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,360
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to call Venezuela a success. A grew

547
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,199
Speaker 1: up in Miami, I know that community well. And if that,

548
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,959
Speaker 1: if Venezuela is not a democracy, sometimes soon they're all

549
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 1: going to turn on him on this.

550
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 2: And that's the problem in Iran. I mean, we've basically

551
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 2: being He said at the very beginning that one of

552
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 2: the multiple reasons for intervention was to actually go to

553
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: the Iranian people, you know, across the board, the opportunity

554
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 2: to choose their own leadership and not you know, basically

555
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 2: be you know, killed en mass By, you know, a

556
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,679
Speaker 2: regime that has become perceived widely as a legitimate. But

557
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 2: I do there's not a pathway to that. So, I

558
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 2: mean one of the words that you'll probably get out

559
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 2: of is just declared he's done in terms.

560
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 1: Of well, we know, well no matter what, he declares

561
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 1: victory right like, oh, this was a massive success. And

562
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:13,959
Speaker 1: you're like, but I.

563
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: Well, what he has to do if you're going to

564
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 2: find a pathway is basically to be consulting with all

565
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 2: of the countries around that have a vested interest in

566
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,959
Speaker 2: the immediate vicinity. You know, that includes you know, countries

567
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 2: like Pakistan and India. It's Turkey, you know, which has

568
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 2: a direct bond is actually a NATO member. You know,

569
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: there should be a consultation with NATO countries because you've

570
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 2: got Iranian populations in large numbers, and places like Germany,

571
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: also in the United Kingdom. I mean, this is going

572
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: to have knock on effects. It's not just you know

573
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: what's happening in Oman or in Saudi Arabia or Ue,

574
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 2: you know, et cetera. I mean we've also got Yemen.

575
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 2: You know, this these a kind of a prophecy is

576
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: he's going to have to have a regional approach to

577
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 2: this and exert some leadership. But I don't think that

578
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: that's what's going to happen. I mean, he's got himself

579
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 2: into a real jam here. I mean of the kind

580
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: of you level that the United States got itself to

581
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: in both Afghanistan and Iraq with a lot more consultation.

582
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: I mean, in fact, in the case of Iraq in

583
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: two thousand and three, the UK did a much better

584
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 2: job of making the case, you know, with Dodger DOSSI

585
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,959
Speaker 2: well and the intervention, and there was there was a

586
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: NATO you know, backed coalition in both you know, Iraq

587
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 2: and in Afghanistan, and at least it's sort of a plan.

588
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: I mean, look, we know we're no good at nation building,

589
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 2: that's for obvious. But there's not an exit plan here.

590
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 2: And of course what happed in Afghanistan when it was

591
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 2: a negotiating exit plan was pretty disastrous.

592
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 1: Do you and just do you think the gutting of

593
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: the National Security Council has any impact on this bad

594
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: decision making he's done? Or is this it wouldn't have

595
00:29:56,440 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 1: mattered whether there was a fully staffed NSC still probably

596
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, I mean.

597
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: In that regard, that regard, I don't think it would

598
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 2: really have mattered. I mean, there was a fully stuffed

599
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: and seeing what could argue there's still a fully stuffed

600
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: and a see if you look at the history of

601
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: the NSC, which is you know, super large depending on

602
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 2: you know, kind of what what different presidents wanted. It's

603
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:23,719
Speaker 2: just it's his, it's his antagonism towards any kind of consultation,

604
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 2: I mean, apart from with who he sees his peers. Look,

605
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 2: this is an overall problem of where we are as

606
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: the United States right now in many other countries as well,

607
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: because we've created in many spects of vertical you know,

608
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: of power, just like the Russians harves Putin and then

609
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 2: you know that's kind of not many but not but

610
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 2: everybody else in the consultative paramid here, you know, we've

611
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: got an apex predator, an apex president, and that's what

612
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: we've done in the United States, and that is completely antithetical.

613
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 2: So what the United States was supposed to be about

614
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 2: for the last two hundred and fifty years. So the

615
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: problem is on us. I mean, actually we all have

616
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: responsibility for this because you know, somehow or other we've

617
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: lost grip, you know.

618
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: Of our I mean it's it's look, I can at

619
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 1: Congress pretty why.

620
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, but Congress, you know, is is a major problem.

621
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 2: And you know, Congress has to remember that they are

622
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 2: actually supposed to be the representative body of the United States.

623
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: They are supposed to be their main locust of decision

624
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: making and power in the Constitution. You know, she's related

625
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: to this, and they've just completely reneged on all responsibility

626
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 2: and so they've allowed you know, so it's all of

627
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 2: the checks and balances in the system have been eroded.

628
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 2: So of course, you know, I mean, look, if Trump

629
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 2: was a different person, and he might made a whole

630
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 2: different set of decisions. But you know, but but he

631
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: isn't right, So it was so obvious that this is,

632
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 2: you know, what is going to happen irrespectively, whether he

633
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 2: had an NSC or you know, a kind of different

634
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 2: set of cos he's concerned everyone's stuff and nobody knows anything.

635
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: So if if this is in theory, then look, it's

636
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 1: going to bog us down. There's no quick exit, right,

637
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: I think it. I've equated it to quicksands. Right, There's

638
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 1: just the more he fights it, the more he may

639
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: end up getting sucked in because of all the all

640
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: the regional effects, all the economic impacts, et cetera. Is

641
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,719
Speaker 1: this a huge break for Russia in the war with Ukraine?

642
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: Is this saying, Jake, could the timing of this been

643
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 1: any better for them?

644
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: Maybe? It already depends on, you know, kind of how

645
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: they handle it as well. I Mean, the obvious issue

646
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 2: is about oil prices.

647
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: But right now that's good for the right, right high.

648
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 2: But the is you know, where Russia is going to

649
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: get all of it soil? Like from I mean it,

650
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: you know, is it where is it going to be

651
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 2: shipping the oil? Because it come has to come out

652
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 2: of the Baltic you know, and you know the other

653
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 2: Europeans going to want to buy Russian oil in the middle,

654
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 2: you know, of all of this, it's a kind of

655
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 2: a long way to China, you know, from for the

656
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 2: Russian oil. I mean, they could ship it up to

657
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: the Arctic Ocean in theory, or they could rail it

658
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 2: out because you know they've got I mean, it's it's

659
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 2: gonna it's not that easy, to be honest, because you know,

660
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 2: they've got some shipping problems that everybody else has. You know,

661
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 2: if they can't go through the Eastern med and the

662
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: Sewer's canal or you know, kind of if all the

663
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: kind of the shipping routes, because i mean we're talking

664
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 2: a lot about you know, Russian you know, rogue shipping,

665
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:16,959
Speaker 2: the shadow of fleet and all the rest of it.

666
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: They've got to be able to get that oil out.

667
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, the all that they're already producing goes

668
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 2: up in value, and the Russians love that, of course,

669
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 2: because you know, the peak of Putin's power has always

670
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 2: been when all prices have got towards this one hundred

671
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 2: and fifty dollars a barrel and yes, that was really

672
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: affecting the revenues. The gas is more difficult for them

673
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 2: to sell as well. It's pipelined, you know, and you've

674
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: got gas coming through Ukraine and players like Hungary and

675
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 2: l and g you know, they're producing some in the

676
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: Russian Far East. You know, it's not as simple as

677
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 2: it looks. But yes, I mean there is the prospect

678
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: there of a windfall, and it would all kind of

679
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: depend on, you know, how we're looking at you know,

680
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,719
Speaker 2: oil trading, you know, and all the rest of it.

681
00:33:56,120 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 2: But it does certainly deflect well and truly away from

682
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 2: you know, all the kind of efforts to try to

683
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 2: resolve what's happening in Ukraine, because of course where was

684
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 2: most of that diplomacy taking place in the Middle East

685
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 2: U A and you know with NBS and nb Z

686
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 2: and all kinds of.

687
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 1: Other So does he want to end this war or not?

688
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 2: Who is that putin?

689
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:21,879
Speaker 1: Yeah?

690
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 2: Trump? Yeah, Trump, I think once when you know this

691
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 2: war get.

692
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: Trump wants because he wants to and you know, let's

693
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: have a normal relationship with the restaurant and the only

694
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: one you can't have it until the.

695
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 2: Absolutely and he's probably blown his nobel peace prize now

696
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: as well, you know, for for this year one but

697
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 2: one would imagine. But the I mean doesn't want to

698
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: end this war unless it's on his terms. So that

699
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 2: would mean, you know, the capitulation of Ukraine. He's made

700
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 2: it very.

701
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 1: Clear it's just never going to happen. I mean, it

702
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: makes it.

703
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: Unlikely now when thinks, you know, for exactly the way

704
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 2: that we phrase this question, that you might have a

705
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: windfall bring in more revenue, I might be able to

706
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:06,879
Speaker 2: continue to keep paying contract because I mean essentially, yeah,

707
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 2: this will give him. I mean, they'll hope some breathing,

708
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 2: spare some time to recovery because the economy was under

709
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 2: was under pressure, and now that pressure, you could be

710
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: could be relieved.

711
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: I think every time we think that Ukrainian morale is

712
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:25,720
Speaker 1: going to suffer, it doesn't. I mean, it is. They've

713
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: been a tougher fighting force. I mean even now, and

714
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: it looks like, you know, the the United States isn't

715
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: really helping the way they once were, and yet they

716
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 1: continue to persevere.

717
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: We actually, you know, unlike maybe the rest of us here,

718
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: they realize they have agency and this is an existential fight,

719
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 2: and this is a problem that we've now got and

720
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: you know, our current age of the strong men, as

721
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 2: everybody you know refers to it. We've got a bunch

722
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 2: of guys who basically think that they're so powerful and

723
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 2: that can be in the private sector as well that

724
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 2: you know, the techno bros. You know, you're as you've

725
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 2: got trillions and billions, you can anything you want. They

726
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: kind of forget there's eight billion people on this planet

727
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 2: and everyone in their own way has some urgency either

728
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 2: to just ignore you, move away, you know, go of

729
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 2: the grid, try not to engage with you, but to

730
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 2: actually be fight back. And that's you know what happened

731
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 2: in the case of Ukraine. Putin just kind of assumes

732
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 2: he can tell you Ukraines that they have to be Russians,

733
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 2: you know, kind of or you know, they don't have

734
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 2: the right to their own poverty. And you know, a

735
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: very large number of them, it doesn't even have to

736
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 2: be all of them says no, thank you very much,

737
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 2: and you know, I'd rather die. You know, some people

738
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 2: would actually literally say than you know, kind of live

739
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 2: under under Moscow and look, and that's another kind of

740
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 2: problem when you intervene. In the case of Iran, there

741
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 2: are die hards for that regime, you know, who will

742
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: be rallying around.

743
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: Seven years absolutely? I mean, you know this is a

744
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: part we look at Trump's megabase and how devoted they

745
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: are they here, that's right, and they've only been He's

746
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: only been their leader for a decade and there they don't.

747
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 1: I mean, you know it. The irony is all these polls,

748
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: the self described MAGA is more pro bombing of Iran

749
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: than the non MAGA wing of the Republican Party. That's

750
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 1: how devoted his base is. If he says this is

751
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: what it should be there with him, and it's amusing

752
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 1: to me that he is shocked that they're similar behavior

753
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 1: and a theocracy, and.

754
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 2: The same in Russia because you've got so many people

755
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 2: who have vested into those regimes. And then in Ukraine. Yes,

756
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 2: you know, it's complex, but it's a war, you know,

757
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 2: It's just like London and the Blitz, you know, and

758
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: basically all the other class that we can think about

759
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 2: from World War Two. They're going to fight back and

760
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 2: they're going to you know, keep on resisting this and

761
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: even if somebody else tries to impose a piece, who's

762
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,240
Speaker 2: to say that they're going to accept that and certainly

763
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 2: the Ukrainians are not going to give up the best

764
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 2: defended parts of the Donbas region just because Putin can't

765
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 2: win it on the battlefield. So there's just all this complexity,

766
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 2: and I think, you know, we're in a state where

767
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 2: most of the people who are trying to make decisions,

768
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 2: forglect that there are other people. You know, either they're

769
00:37:58,040 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 2: just kind of run rulers all out because you know,

770
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 2: everything you know, moving towards AI and automation and humans

771
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: won't exist, or who cares about you know, what human

772
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 2: beings are doing, but actually were large parts of the

773
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:12,919
Speaker 2: world that is essential to understand those dynamics. And that's

774
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: you know where I really kind of think that this

775
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 2: administration falls short because Trump can't think of anybody but himself. Sorry,

776
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,720
Speaker 2: but that's ultimately he himself and other people's shoes.

777
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 1: He just can't do it, and he assumes everybody is

778
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: as transactional as he is. I mean, I think he's

779
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: genuinely surprised that around it and kind of deal well.

780
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean he doesn't really believe in ideology,

781
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 2: you know, the idolatry and idle lists and idea. You know,

782
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 2: he is an idol is American idol, you know, but

783
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 2: that's kind of he doesn't think of ideology in the

784
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 2: same maybe people around him do. But you know religious zeal.

785
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 2: I mean, look, we have a country here where Evangelical

786
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 2: Christians and other you know Christian uh, you know sects

787
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 2: and you know other religions you know, kind of a

788
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 2: very much We're all talking about it all the time.

789
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 2: But how much religion is infused in you know, daily

790
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 2: daily life and should be or should not be. Well,

791
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 2: in Iran it's very much fused in daily life. This

792
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 2: was a theocracy, So why are we surprised that there

793
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 2: is you know, a very much a fervent responsor to

794
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 2: all of this when they I tell how many died.

795
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 2: You know, for people, this is the death of their

796
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: religious leader. It would be as if, you know, for them,

797
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 2: and you know, people will go, oh my god, I'm

798
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 2: going to make the comparison, but again, this is for them.

799
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 2: This would be as if you know, Trump had just taken.

800
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: Out the pope, right and there would be a lot

801
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: of Catholics.

802
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 2: Just absolutely beside themselves. And you know, I mean the

803
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: other you know, complexity of all of this is that

804
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 2: in Islam, the theocracy and married. You know, so you've

805
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 2: got this possibility you know, direct assented. As you said,

806
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 2: we don't know whether harmony son you know, is actually

807
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: all there. We kind of assume, but you know from

808
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 2: the parts his wife was killed, his mother was killed,

809
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 2: one of his sons were killed, that is not exactly

810
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 2: going to be you know, to kind of deal exactly.

811
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 2: And so I mean this is again, you know, did

812
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:14,839
Speaker 2: this all get thought through?

813
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: Well, I think you know the answer to that question.

814
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so kind of rhetorical point. And I mean that's

815
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 2: you know that we always need to have all of

816
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:28,919
Speaker 2: these extra contingencies. And that's you know where a larger process,

817
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: you know, would have at least even if the decision

818
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 2: ultimately came down because a lot of people say, look,

819
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,800
Speaker 2: it was an operational decision, it had to be maximum secrecy,

820
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 2: you know, have that opportunity to take out you know,

821
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 2: how many and him is in a circle and it

822
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 2: was going to window was going to close. But just

823
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 2: the whole general idea of just not not just the

824
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 2: merits of actually taking that particular action, but what was

825
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 2: going to happen more broadly, it could have come out

826
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:55,720
Speaker 2: of anc process and into governmental process. You know, getting

827
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 2: in reports. I mean, perhaps they did some of this,

828
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 2: you know from the I see the intelligence community. I

829
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 2: mean I used to work in that. People will prepare

830
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 2: you know, reports and assessments, and we're getting a little

831
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 2: bit of a hint of that from you know, some

832
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 2: of the stuff in the press. You would come to

833
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 2: consult allies that actually have not just a vested interest,

834
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 2: but a lot of on the ground information. And you know,

835
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 2: and then again, I mean back to Congress and at

836
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: least you know the group and people are saying, well,

837
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 2: they were told, were they consulted? Being told? Is something different?

838
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 1: Do you know? I feel like the advantage of run

839
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 1: right has right now is that simply the regime surviving

840
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: is winning. Yes, And you know, it's just like Russia

841
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: and Afghanistan, US and Vietnam. Right, the asymmetrical I mean

842
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 1: the fact that supposedly there were orders given out that

843
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 1: just said do what you have to do. You don't coordinate.

844
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: There's some decentralized orders given to you know, in the

845
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 1: case of if the if Comania is killed, you do

846
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 1: what your best you think best is to disrupt this

847
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 1: or disrupt that or et cetera. That there's not going

848
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 1: to be command and control the way we would have it,

849
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: you know, coming out of the Pentagon or something like that.

850
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 1: That feels like an unwinnable war. When you have that

851
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,919
Speaker 1: kind of asymmetric when you're dealing with where they were

852
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 1: simply surviving is success.

853
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I actually have to say, look.

854
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 1: That's what it's actually what's happening in Ukraine right now.

855
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 2: Right exactly exactly, That's exactly what I was going to say,

856
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 2: because I don't understand sometimes why you know, Trump and

857
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 2: other people are talking to about Ukraine as being losers,

858
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: because it's.

859
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 1: Unbelievable, unbelievable, that they're.

860
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 2: Unbelievable, absolutely unbelievable. And you know, and then you know,

861
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 2: and as you say, that's survival in the face of

862
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 2: a literal onslaught is remarkable. And that's the whole you know,

863
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 2: myth of World War Two for and it's not just

864
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 2: a myth obviously for for Russia the Soviet Union, is

865
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 2: that you know, they survived against the odds. And again

866
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 2: that's in America. You know, we kind of built on

867
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: this idea of being the scrappy power that survives against

868
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 2: all of the odds when everyone's written us off, and

869
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 2: you know, unfortunately, you know, we kind of not actually

870
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 2: seeing the others because we tend to think in black

871
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 2: and white, good and evil. You know, white hats, black hats.

872
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 2: You know, the Iranians are the good guys and you

873
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 2: know the bad guys. We're the good guys, you know,

874
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 2: so we always have to win. We can't actually see

875
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 2: that that that you know that you know, same response

876
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 2: can come from you know, the opposing side. And in Afghanistan,

877
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 2: the Taliban, but they're tenacious. They found a way of

878
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 2: constantly coming back and you know they're back.

879
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

880
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,719
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881
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882
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883
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884
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885
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Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

886
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887
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Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

888
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889
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890
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895
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896
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898
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899
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900
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902
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903
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904
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905
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907
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908
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about, especially if

909
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:25,800
Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. Let's fast forward two years.

910
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 1: There's a new president. There's no restoration anymore. I think

911
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 1: you could argue that twenty twenty, you could make a

912
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: restoration argument to the world that we had going back

913
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: to multilateralism and all of that stuff, and there was

914
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 1: a little bit of that with Biden. It feels like

915
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 1: the Europeans aren't going to trust us a second time.

916
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 1: That is this generational? I mean I had somebody ask

917
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 1: me this question and I basically said, it's going to

918
00:45:56,239 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: take a generation for us to repair the broken alliances

919
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 1: that have that have occurred over the last ten years

920
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 1: because of this trust issue. When until they see two

921
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: presidents in a row from different parties behave the same way,

922
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 1: we're not going to get trusted again by the Europeans.

923
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 1: Is that is that a fair way?

924
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 2: Yeah? Maybe even longer, you know, obviously. And I think

925
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 2: and then what we're going to have is a different

926
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:25,320
Speaker 2: set of alliances. I suspect, I mean, NATO won't exist

927
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 2: in you know, the form that it is at least truest.

928
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: I mean, what is it? I mean, do you think

929
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: we you think NATO is an alliance and name only

930
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 1: at this point.

931
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 2: No, I actually think it's going to change. I mean,

932
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 2: it might shift its name a little bit. You know,

933
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,280
Speaker 2: we just have things like the Western European you know, Alliance,

934
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 2: the WA and you know all kinds of other you know,

935
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 2: kind of groupings at different time. And I think that

936
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 2: what we're going to get is, you know, more of

937
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 2: a European pillar with Canada. I mean, the US comes

938
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 2: continent always like writing off Canada and forget that Canada

939
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 2: is actually part of the not American in a treaty organization.

940
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 2: And you know, for the United States to basically function

941
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 2: in terms of really protecting itself from ballistic missiles, the

942
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,399
Speaker 2: whole idea of Trump's Golden Dome, you can of eat

943
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,879
Speaker 2: Canada and it's not just Alaska, and seizing.

944
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 1: Greenland doesn't work without Canadom.

945
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: No, And you also need Norway and the United Kingdom

946
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 2: because some of the key radars that the unices it

947
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 2: would be blind without, happened to be located there as well,

948
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 2: because it was part of that whole you know, North

949
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 2: Atlantic security infrastructure that you had there as well. And

950
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: all of those countries. I mean, the Norwegians are beside

951
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: themselves about the whole attacks on Greenland, not because you

952
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 2: know this is you know, directly under their sovereignty now,

953
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:41,799
Speaker 2: but it used to be. I mean, it has been

954
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 2: a part of that larger empire Norway, Denmark, you know,

955
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 2: I mean the Scandinavians, you know, more generally they see

956
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 2: this as kind of assault on them as well. And

957
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 2: you're seeing groupings that used to exist before. So in

958
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: the case of that Scandinavian landscape, we had something called

959
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 2: the obviously all have it, the Joint Expedition Force, which

960
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 2: was neither joint expedition nor a force at one point,

961
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 2: but it was a grouping to bring Sweden and Finland

962
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 2: when they were not parts of NATO into closer coordination.

963
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 2: It was gone led by the British, but it had

964
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 2: all the Nordic Baltic states, and now that's expanding out.

965
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 2: They're trying to bring in Canada, They've got a kind

966
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 2: of arrangement with Poland, and it's all for coordination, and

967
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 2: I think that's kind of what's going to happen. We're

968
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 2: going to see more coordination that leads actually to real

969
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 2: reformulation of alliances on a regional basiness or subregional that

970
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 2: then starts to shape the whole way that we are

971
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,919
Speaker 2: going to have to then re engage because we won't

972
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 2: be able to come back. And you know, a couple

973
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 2: of presidents he said, oh, NATO, Yeah, where where is that?

974
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:41,919
Speaker 1: It actually got the key?

975
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 2: You know, it's like it's parked in the garage. You know,

976
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 2: can I go in there? And you know, take it

977
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 2: for a spinner, be like no, sorry, you know, we've

978
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 2: already started to move on and to do other things now.

979
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 2: The nuclear umbrella, you know, obviously for the United States

980
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 2: was critical to natal and remains critical. But we're already

981
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 2: having all kinds of decissions going on about you know,

982
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:06,240
Speaker 2: what happens with francis independent nuclear by not just program,

983
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 2: but it's nuclear arsenal. The UK having all kinds of

984
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 2: anxiety about how closely to entwined its submarine nuclear forces

985
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 2: with the United States, and wondering, you know, everybody's wondering

986
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 2: now about how can we relieve ourselves and what now

987
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:25,240
Speaker 2: seems to be a potentially ruinous dependent on the United States,

988
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 2: our allies, our erstwhile our so talking about us where

989
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 2: they never have before as a liability, no longer as

990
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: an asset.

991
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: So what would you do if you were in the

992
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 1: next president as you try to rebuild these alliances. How

993
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 1: would you advise the next president to you know that

994
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: everybody's going to treat you with trepidation. Is it just

995
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 1: lots of money? I mean, what what do you do

996
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 1: to start to fix it?

997
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 2: Don't we'll have that amount of money to throw around anymore,

998
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,320
Speaker 2: you know. From one thing. Look, I think there's also

999
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: something us that's interesting that's happening because of this over

1000
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 2: emphasis on the president, on the person of the executive,

1001
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 2: this hyper personalization of the presidency. It's so longer what

1002
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 2: Dick Cheney and you know people had in mind of

1003
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:11,879
Speaker 2: a unified executive. It's just one guy, you know, going

1004
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 2: to lords.

1005
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 1: It over and yeah, it's I call it movie mob

1006
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,279
Speaker 1: boss like you know, it's not what a real mob

1007
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 1: boss does, but it's what he thinks the movie mob

1008
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 1: bosses do.

1009
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 2: And if we think back going to the Knickson era

1010
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,759
Speaker 2: and Watergate and all the aftermath of that, that was

1011
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 2: trying to kind of get rid of that corrosive potential

1012
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 2: of too much concentration of power and the president. And

1013
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 2: you know, I think we're going to have to have

1014
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 2: in the United States a major domestic discussion about this.

1015
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: And I think that reknew it might have to come

1016
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,160
Speaker 2: from the States because one thing that's also ready starting

1017
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 2: to happen. When I was in Europe just the last

1018
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 2: couple of weeks finding out the individual American states are

1019
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: setting up their own representation Texas and all this one

1020
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 2: California has been out and about, but other states as well,

1021
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 2: you know, because they no longer feel that their interests

1022
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 2: are being represented. I mean, if you're a Blue States,

1023
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 2: you know Trump is you know, you're no longer part

1024
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: of the United States, as Trump is saying, and he's

1025
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 2: not going to do anything for you know.

1026
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 1: The Articles of Confederation have come back.

1027
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:13,720
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, and I think that that actually might become,

1028
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,800
Speaker 2: you know, part of the way in which we reintegrate

1029
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 2: or kind of reconnect, because you're starting to see states

1030
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 2: taken upon themselves to think, well, gosh, you know this

1031
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 2: is terrible. You know, we want to keep.

1032
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 1: Out of the time of all this ends up we factualize.

1033
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's I think there is a high

1034
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 2: likelihood of that happening, whether you know people are really

1035
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 2: cognizant of it or not. You're already seeing vaccine mandate,

1036
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 2: compact public health. Yeah, we've seen that right in the

1037
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 2: West Coast California, Washington, and Oregon. He's starting to say

1038
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 2: in New England, you're starting to see universities, you know,

1039
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 2: trying to link together as they're under attack and higher

1040
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 2: ed you know, thinking about partnerships and programs abroad or

1041
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 2: you know, across the United States and where they never

1042
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 2: did before. Trump is catzing you know, a lot of

1043
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 2: change that needed to happen, you know, let's say, because

1044
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 2: I mean, we know that, but it's a backing ball,

1045
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 2: you know, it's a kind of a we're all going

1046
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 2: to be rebuilding, and that's what the approach is going

1047
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: to have to be for new president. Rebuild. And you're

1048
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 2: also going to have to prioritize. And I don't know

1049
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 2: whether this national security strategy was it because we said, hey,

1050
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 2: we've moved away from the Middle East, we appear to

1051
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 2: be voluntarily back in it. So we're really going to

1052
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 2: have to decide about where is it that we want

1053
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 2: to use the full impact of US power depending on

1054
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 2: what's left of that at.

1055
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 1: The end of this, if you were sitting I'm going

1056
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 1: to two more questions, I want to get you out

1057
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 1: of here. But if you were sitting in she's shoes

1058
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,320
Speaker 1: and you wanted to move on Taiwan. Wouldn't you absolutely

1059
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 1: prioritize doing it while Trump's in office?

1060
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 2: Yes? And no, I mean yes, it would seem like

1061
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 2: this is the you know, the really logical the time,

1062
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 2: it's not going to do anything about it. Yeah, you

1063
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 2: want to do it, and everybody else is just watching

1064
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:04,920
Speaker 2: the horrors and folding elsewhere. They might not even notice

1065
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 2: you've done it, you know, apart from all the articles

1066
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 2: that I just wanted it says bye bye Taiwan. But

1067
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:11,840
Speaker 2: the time, you know, it depends on what else you

1068
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 2: think you can get out of this current moment in

1069
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 2: terms of forging you know, ties with other countries, you know,

1070
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 2: kind of picking up the you know, the rubble from

1071
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 2: the rubble, you know, the damaged you know, goods and

1072
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 2: you know, and reforging.

1073
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 1: She's a bit narcissistic though, I mean, he's he looks

1074
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 1: at the long game a little bit more than Trump does.

1075
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: But he also seems a bit shortsighted at times too.

1076
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 2: Well, I mean yeah, and he's sort of consolidating in

1077
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 2: a power at the moment, you know, in.

1078
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 1: Ways very PoID when you're purge in your military like.

1079
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 2: That that you have purged your melogory might not be

1080
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:44,759
Speaker 2: able to rely on in the same way. And it

1081
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 2: might just be that, you know, you might be able

1082
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,840
Speaker 2: to put more force on Taiwan in different ways to

1083
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 2: make Taiwan think, actually, you might be better off with

1084
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 2: China now than this mayhem and chaos given what the

1085
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:59,720
Speaker 2: United States is doing. And then maybe that other countries,

1086
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 2: you know, as they are looking for alternatives to the

1087
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: United States, maybe just more amenable as people already are,

1088
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 2: to doing things with China in ways that might become

1089
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 2: more beneficial. I mean, if I was she, but I'm not,

1090
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 2: you know, and I obviously don't think in the way

1091
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:14,479
Speaker 2: he is, I'd wait a bit, you know, and see

1092
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 2: how this, see how this plays out. But it may

1093
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 2: well be that, you know, kind of he may also

1094
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 2: think that this is a window that he has to

1095
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:24,880
Speaker 2: take advantage of because it closes, just like the Israeli

1096
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 2: case for We've got to go now, you know. So

1097
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:29,399
Speaker 2: you just again, we don't know, but I'm just saying

1098
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:31,719
Speaker 2: there could be a lot of opportunity here, you know,

1099
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 2: for other countries to play things differently. I think already

1100
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 2: we've moved beyond a US dominated world in the way

1101
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:40,799
Speaker 2: that it has been for the last eighty years. We're

1102
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 2: in a kind of post packs Americana for sure, because

1103
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 2: that's all kind of broken down. The US no longer

1104
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 2: keeps the peace. But we might be in a you know,

1105
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:52,399
Speaker 2: it's a sort of a post American Empire phase as well,

1106
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 2: where other countries are all just basically now starting to

1107
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 2: look out for themselves, but regrouping in different groups that

1108
00:54:58,280 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 2: might exclude the.

1109
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 1: Acess we as. It's a globe. We had a lot

1110
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 1: of wars.

1111
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 2: We did, and we've got more of walls now and

1112
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,400
Speaker 2: they're all, you know, getting tangled up, whether we like

1113
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 2: it or not, because the United States is no longer

1114
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 2: acting as a peacemaker and you know we're not. We're

1115
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 2: just not doing that.

1116
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 1: I thought he ended eight wars.

1117
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:18,320
Speaker 2: Sorry, Yeah, apparently.

1118
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:26,879
Speaker 1: Putent's lifespan his health and is there is there an

1119
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 1: air apparent? Is he grooming anybody? You know? He seems

1120
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:37,720
Speaker 1: you know what, is Russia still vulnerable to massive change

1121
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 1: and upheaval if Putin dies?

1122
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 2: That's the point. Yes, of course it's vulnerable, as is

1123
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 2: the United States. Frankly, if something happens to put a

1124
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 2: Trump And also China, was she because once you consolidate

1125
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 2: so much power in one individual, it's a very unhealthy

1126
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 2: for your political system, whether there are an autocracy, and

1127
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:57,120
Speaker 2: especially if you're a democracy, you know, but you're an

1128
00:55:57,120 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 2: autocracy as well, because you know, none of these strong

1129
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 2: when leaders want to groom a successor because they don't

1130
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:04,320
Speaker 2: want to be a lame duck, because in their settings,

1131
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 2: a lame duck might be a dead duck, you know,

1132
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 2: because somebody starts to kind of expedite the process because

1133
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 2: they would actually like to step into the shoes. And

1134
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 2: that's certainly how Putin thinks, and maybe that's the way

1135
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 2: that you know she thinks as well, because the more

1136
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:19,000
Speaker 2: you move away from something that's structured, even if you

1137
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 2: do have structures in players for you know, choosing.

1138
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 1: A leader strength structure, right, you.

1139
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 2: Know, yeah, I mean looks quite vulnerable, right, and I mean, yes,

1140
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 2: it used to be our strength. But Trump is basically

1141
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 2: saying that nothing is important but him in the United

1142
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 2: States the moment. That's what Putin says. You know, it's

1143
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,240
Speaker 2: been wild that you know, over the last couple of weeks,

1144
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:42,319
Speaker 2: you know, when people talking about Mega for example, and

1145
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 2: Trump himself said, there's no MAGA without me. You know,

1146
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:47,439
Speaker 2: basically in Russia Putins always there's no Russia without Putin,

1147
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 2: and no Russia without you know, without Russia. And it's

1148
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:53,319
Speaker 2: all of this, it's all of a wanness. You know

1149
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 2: that you've got the same kind of mindset, and that

1150
00:56:56,040 --> 00:57:00,799
Speaker 2: becomes extraordinary brittle and and and you know, a risk

1151
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 2: of uppeople in the Russian case, we had that after Stalin.

1152
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 2: Now on the Soviet case, and of course you know,

1153
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 2: eventually out of that came a collective leadership and then

1154
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:11,360
Speaker 2: crush off and then you know, kind of lots of boring,

1155
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 2: you know, kind of ways of selecting leaders after that,

1156
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 2: and you know that, look, that could happen in Russia.

1157
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 2: But you know there are successes out there, potential successes

1158
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 2: who come from the you know, the bodyguards from the

1159
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 2: security services that you know, seem to be close to

1160
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 2: put the could step up and could just you know,

1161
00:57:28,640 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 2: continue what he's been doing, you know, the equivalent of

1162
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 2: what we've seen in in vs. Wild Maduro to Chavez

1163
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 2: or to Ayatollahmeni's son.

1164
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 1: You know, for example, there was a time three or

1165
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:41,720
Speaker 1: four years ago where I think we all had a

1166
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 1: little bit of hope that the Russian people might might

1167
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 1: be a check on Putin. That doesn't seem to be

1168
00:57:47,720 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 1: the case.

1169
00:57:48,440 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 2: Well, a lot of Europeans everybody else wondering why the

1170
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 2: American people are not a check on.

1171
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 1: I get this question all the time. You're not in

1172
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 1: the streets more.

1173
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, Well, that's exactly it, because you know that

1174
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 2: we've seen that the bar is are quite high. When

1175
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 2: you have a couple you know, no more than a

1176
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 2: couple of protesters shot by falses. You get you know,

1177
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 2: American citizens who were disappeared, you know, by ice, which

1178
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 2: has happened, and you know, you've got kind of a

1179
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 2: feeling of impunity in the system, the barriers to entry

1180
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 2: and to protest, and you know kind of doing more

1181
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 2: very high, and Russia's on that, you know, wave particularly

1182
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 2: blank piece of paper. We've even had in the UK,

1183
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 2: the ridiculous situation, you know, after the banning of Palestine,

1184
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 2: action of people being arrested as well, you know, for

1185
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 2: holding up pieces of paper. We've got in all of

1186
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:42,280
Speaker 2: societies now this kind of you know, if your protest

1187
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 2: is out of step with how people feel, you know

1188
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 2: that the politics is going, or you know, the the

1189
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 2: malls or you know, values et cetera. You you know,

1190
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 2: can have everything kind of come down and you with

1191
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 2: a with a massive weight. So I think, you know,

1192
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 2: we should have a little bit more understanding than you know,

1193
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 2: where the you know, the ussions are coming from. Because

1194
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 2: it's also feeling. I've had so many people recently and

1195
00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:05,960
Speaker 2: the last week said to me, I feel helpless. I

1196
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 2: feel like I have no voice. I feel like I

1197
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 2: have no agency. You know, what can I do?

1198
00:59:11,240 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 1: I just you know, here, I tell them go vote.

1199
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, and also you can do a lot of

1200
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 2: things in your own community, and we can, all of us,

1201
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:21,120
Speaker 2: you know, but basically could press on our members of

1202
00:59:21,160 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 2: Congress to remember there are members of Congress. Yeah, I mean,

1203
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:26,520
Speaker 2: I'm very I'm a really good member of Congress. I

1204
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 2: sort of a certain feel that in his responsive I have

1205
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 2: Jamie Raskin, you know, but you know, if I was

1206
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 2: in another situation, you know, I might not feel that,

1207
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 2: you know kind of the somebody is you know, so

1208
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 2: active in that way or as you know, he's certainly

1209
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 2: not scared to stand up and say things, you know.

1210
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 2: But so I think everybody, no matter where they are

1211
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:45,200
Speaker 2: and no matter you know, what part of the partisan

1212
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 2: spectrum they're on. They should be demanding that they're members

1213
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 2: of Congress really represent them and represent all their constituencies,

1214
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 2: and remember that they're a branch of power.

1215
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:58,520
Speaker 1: So is it fair to say that you're you, you're

1216
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:01,440
Speaker 1: epitomizing the great job McCain joke, which is it's always

1217
01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:05,919
Speaker 1: darkest before it goes totally black. You're you're pretty realistically

1218
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 1: grim about the short term future. It's honestly where I said,

1219
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 1: I always say I'm short term pessimistic, long long term optimistic.

1220
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 1: We eventually figured out.

1221
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 2: But I think we will figure it out, but it's

1222
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 2: probably going to be in ways that we've just not anticipated.

1223
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 2: As there's a lot going to happen at the state

1224
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,440
Speaker 2: and local government level. You know, we already see that.

1225
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people might opt out of

1226
01:00:27,960 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 2: national politics for quite some time because they'll just feel

1227
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 2: that this is just hopeless and useless. But you know that,

1228
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:36,120
Speaker 2: but we might actually start to see a drive for

1229
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 2: change coming from I mean, look, that is the real

1230
01:00:39,240 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 2: source I think of American strength, which is in the

1231
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:47,040
Speaker 2: federal system and in the American people writ large, not

1232
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 2: just as something.

1233
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:50,800
Speaker 1: I try to tell people. It's what to Tokeville, it's

1234
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 1: what to Touville said about us in democracy from America

1235
01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:55,760
Speaker 1: was the thing he admired the most about our democracy

1236
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:58,760
Speaker 1: is how local it was and how people were locally.

1237
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 2: The more people run for Congress, even as independents, you know,

1238
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:04,479
Speaker 2: the more that you can really kind of get people

1239
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:05,800
Speaker 2: out there. So I would urge people to go and

1240
01:01:05,920 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 2: run for your school board, you know, run you know,

1241
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:12,440
Speaker 2: for local government, get involved in your communities and write

1242
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 2: to your call your Congress people, and just get them

1243
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:20,080
Speaker 2: to get with their jobs and be brave.

1244
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I just want these members of Congress to

1245
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 1: read the Constitution and understand Article one. I feel like

1246
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 1: most of them haven't read it well.

1247
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:29,720
Speaker 2: When I became a citizen as a naturalized citizen, I

1248
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 2: was given a copy of the Interconstitution and I have

1249
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 2: it in my bag all the time because, you know,

1250
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 2: as somebody who had to swear to notes the Constitution,

1251
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 2: I thought I should myself with it. Yeah, exactly. And

1252
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 2: we do need to have more of these kinds of conversations,

1253
01:01:43,360 --> 01:01:45,520
Speaker 2: Todd as well. We need to have all kinds of

1254
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:48,960
Speaker 2: national level conversations about where we're heading, because this is

1255
01:01:49,080 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 2: you know, a very difficult time to affects all of US.

1256
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 2: And you know, even if Trump might have had the

1257
01:01:53,720 --> 01:01:59,440
Speaker 2: right and all kinds of nationales to basically attack Iran,

1258
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:01,919
Speaker 2: we all have the right to you know, basically say

1259
01:02:02,080 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 2: what happens in the future. So you know, let's kind

1260
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 2: of find out different ways of being able to participate

1261
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 2: in this. And I think everybody needs to inform themselves about,

1262
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:14,280
Speaker 2: you know, what is actually happening. Read widely, listen to

1263
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 2: people like you, you know, listen to podcasts, and you know,

1264
01:02:17,120 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 2: try to get and engage in all of this.

1265
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:22,280
Speaker 1: Well, I'm that's where I get hopeful. The last time

1266
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:23,800
Speaker 1: we were in a period like this, in the early

1267
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 1: twentieth century, we made some of the biggest reforms onto

1268
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:30,120
Speaker 1: our constitution that mattered a lot, whether it was direct

1269
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 1: election to senators, women the right to vote, and the

1270
01:02:33,720 --> 01:02:37,960
Speaker 1: income tax, which we had this massive oligarchy then that

1271
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 1: was developing with with industrialization. So we did it once,

1272
01:02:43,520 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 1: but it you know, we have to feel more pain

1273
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 1: and that's usually the American way.

1274
01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:50,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we definitely can do it again, though, we

1275
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 2: definitely can.

1276
01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:55,480
Speaker 1: Well, Beanness is a great conversation thanks to talk to

1277
01:02:56,080 --> 01:02:57,360
Speaker 1: realistic optimism.

1278
01:02:58,360 --> 01:02:59,280
Speaker 2: That's exactly right.

1279
01:02:59,680 --> 01:03:01,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. Five