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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest, Nicole Webbs, senior vice president

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Speaker 1: and financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group. So everybody is

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Speaker 1: trying to discount what the FED is going to do. Nicole,

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Speaker 1: and we had the former New York Bank of President

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Speaker 1: Bill Dudley say, now the FED has talked to talk,

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Speaker 1: let's see them walk the walk. Do you think they will?

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Speaker 1: I suppose you could say, well, you know, they've just

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Speaker 1: done to seventy five basis point hikes in rowe they've

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Speaker 1: been walking the walk. But you know what he means. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I certainly do. And I will say over the past

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Speaker 1: six weeks, we did not jump on to this narrative

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Speaker 1: that we may very well be at the forefront of

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Speaker 1: an easing cycle. We um fully expected that the FED

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Speaker 1: would continue to fight inflation and fight it with all

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Speaker 1: of its might. UM. The thought of any Fed engineering

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Speaker 1: um to ease us out of this, which it looked

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Speaker 1: like Wall Street was starting to price in was kind

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Speaker 1: mid to late next year already. UM it seemed seemed

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Speaker 1: a little bit shortsighted. Uh. You know, inflation as a

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Speaker 1: phenomena is generally pretty long lived. M And so you know,

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Speaker 1: we're kind of carrying this tune that we anticipate UM,

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Speaker 1: you know, very much anticipated trickle through effect of both

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Speaker 1: inflation and interest rates softening this economy going forward, so

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Speaker 1: long lived. What are we talking here months is yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't think that we have any real

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Speaker 1: um you know, our best test case scenario in our opinion,

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Speaker 1: just in terms of kind of a a forward look

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Speaker 1: at what we anticipate the equity markets to be like

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Speaker 1: over the next call it too to eight quarters UM

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Speaker 1: is choppy and and pretty flat overall. And that isn't

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Speaker 1: to say there isn't pockets of opportunity inside of the

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Speaker 1: body markets UM, but we don't. We do think it's

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Speaker 1: going to take some time for the global economies truly

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Speaker 1: to absorb all of the liquidity UM that was pumped

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Speaker 1: in as a result of COVID and some easing measures UM.

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Speaker 1: And then on the second hand, we are also anticipating

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Speaker 1: that mother nature is going to add some fuel to

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Speaker 1: these inflationary pressures, and we just don't we don't see

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Speaker 1: a reversal of where the cost of living has gotten

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Speaker 1: to in the short term. We were talking with the

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Speaker 1: economist Bill Lee in the last hour and he was

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Speaker 1: saying that he felt felt that companies would cut a

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Speaker 1: lot of white collar workers, and I asked him, our

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Speaker 1: company is going to be nimble enough that they can

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Speaker 1: cut those costs without hurting revenue. And you know, it's

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Speaker 1: it's an open question. I mean, if you believe in

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Speaker 1: the stock mont, if you believe in companies, that might

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Speaker 1: be one reason why you weren't selling a US of

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Speaker 1: lead today. Mm hmm. And and I think that is

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Speaker 1: um so a couple of things. So yes, I would

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Speaker 1: I would agree that our expectation is that there are

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Speaker 1: going to be white collar workers who, unfortunately UM, will

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Speaker 1: become unemployed. UM. And that's for a multitude of reasons.

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Speaker 1: We also do believe that in a post COVID era UH,

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Speaker 1: companies do have the balance sheet flexibility, the nimbleness and

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Speaker 1: some of the repricing and restructuring that's occurred as a

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Speaker 1: result of COVID, UM, you know, to weather um those

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Speaker 1: layoffs and and be pretty profitable. And that's where I

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Speaker 1: think we're still waiting to watch. And again I'm going

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Speaker 1: to continue to use this word nimbleness. UM. You know

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Speaker 1: how they handled the inflationary pressures as they linger and UM,

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Speaker 1: we don't have this reversal of inflation expectation in the

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Speaker 1: short term, and all the FIDS and very committed to

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Speaker 1: getting inflation under control. But one of the bright spots

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Speaker 1: we've got is that strong jobs market. The consumer appears

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Speaker 1: to be in reasonable health. But my question is, as

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Speaker 1: prices continue to rise, how resilient does the consumer look

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Speaker 1: to you? Is this something that bothers you? Then the

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Speaker 1: consumer very much bothers us. And it's you know what

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Speaker 1: we talked about in the last segment, and and that's

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Speaker 1: really this carry forward of UM to what to what

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Speaker 1: extent and for what duration of time can both corporate

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Speaker 1: balance sheets and then the balance sheets of the individuals

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Speaker 1: UM kind of continue to fight this inflationary battle. And

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Speaker 1: so when we think about the consumer and we start

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Speaker 1: to see some of these leading indicators like credit card debt,

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Speaker 1: and we're waiting to watch that growth rate stabilizes, its

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Speaker 1: trajectory at the moment is a bit concerning. And then

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Speaker 1: we start to watch markets like UM. Let's just think

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Speaker 1: about kind of the forward guidance and some of the

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Speaker 1: earnings report commentary from Walmart where you see high net

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Speaker 1: worth UM and high income earners starting to change their

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Speaker 1: behaviors where it's if this is not going to stabilize,

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Speaker 1: then I'm going to change some of my behaviors. And

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Speaker 1: Um Bloomberg actually released a great piece. It was just

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Speaker 1: I think maybe ten days ago on you know, let's

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Speaker 1: look at what you pay for uh dijon mustard at

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Speaker 1: Whole Foods versus Walmart, and how we're starting to see

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Speaker 1: some of those behavioral shifts and so that starts to

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Speaker 1: concern us in terms of a profit recession. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: let's talk about maybe another behavioral shift. Value stocks have

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Speaker 1: outperformed growth this year, but you know, buying value stocks

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Speaker 1: now if you're possibly going into recession seems a little daunting.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to buy growth companies that aren't earning

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Speaker 1: any profit. But if I buy companies like Apple, is

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Speaker 1: that a happy medium? M Yeah. We actually like kind

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Speaker 1: of this convergence in companies like Oracle UM looking both

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Speaker 1: at Um. You know, a company like Oracle that provides

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Speaker 1: mission critical software and platforms where you are a bit

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Speaker 1: less sensitive to the macroeconomic environment, but also has these

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Speaker 1: pockets of enterprise adaptation of cloud and then also getting

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Speaker 1: paid to weight so receiving kind of a nice dividend

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Speaker 1: along the way. Apple is another great company. It's just

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Speaker 1: the relative price point to entry on Apple, you're to

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Speaker 1: date versus Oracle would make us uh, you know, tend

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Speaker 1: towards the ladder a bit more um. But then also,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of um energy, specifically energy in

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Speaker 1: the US, we believe that there's been such an um

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Speaker 1: kind of an underinvestment in some pockets of energy here

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Speaker 1: that we do think can pay off over the long term.

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Speaker 1: And so there are there are these pockets available, these

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Speaker 1: these entry point companies that still look of relative value

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Speaker 1: to us, and we do believe on the back side

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Speaker 1: of this, when when the FED does inevitably eventually ease

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Speaker 1: us to a neutral rate again, um, you know this,

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Speaker 1: this moment in time is a great buying opportunity. One

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Speaker 1: of the stories we're covering today is how American films

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Speaker 1: confidence in China's fall into a record large a little

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Speaker 1: half of respondence optimistic. When you run your eye across

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Speaker 1: the investing landscape in China, does it fall into the

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Speaker 1: be greedy when others a fearful category or is it

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Speaker 1: just go stay away painted all over? Yeah, And that

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Speaker 1: really comes down to the risk appetite of the individual

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Speaker 1: investor personally with a decades long lifespan and investing horizon

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Speaker 1: in front of me. I like the capitalistic agenda and

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Speaker 1: this this pivoting mindset of you know, in the Chinese markets, um,

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Speaker 1: and I do believe that in terms of seats at

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Speaker 1: the head of the economic table globally, China very much

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Speaker 1: is in kind of either a one or two chair position,

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Speaker 1: depending on who you ask. And so I think investment

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Speaker 1: outside of the US does present a great relative value.

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Speaker 1: It will just have a much uh different, you know,

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Speaker 1: day to day, year to year movement. But at some

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Speaker 1: point um the reversal to non US outperformance will come back,

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Speaker 1: and in this moment in time will be a great opportunity. Alright,

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Speaker 1: Nicole web Scene, you vice president and financial advisor a

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Speaker 1: wealth enhancement Group. Thanks so much for joining us on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia today