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Speaker 1: us all into fans. Hi, everybody welcome in. Gonna be

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Speaker 1: a really good show today. I've got some thoughts about

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Speaker 1: the Steelers went over the Titans. Kenny Pickett and Will Levis.

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Speaker 1: Very encouraging night if you're a Titans fan. Will Levis

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Speaker 1: out played to meet Picket until the very end, and

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Speaker 1: then we'll have Chad Milman on Sharper Square. I had

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Speaker 1: another winning week on Blazing five tougher week. I like

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Speaker 1: a lot of favorites last few weeks. That's not my history.

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Speaker 1: But we'll get the Chad Millman Action Network CCO in

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Speaker 1: about ten minutes. So there's a saying in football that

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Speaker 1: winning is not a quarterback stat and tonight's a great example.

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Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett has significantly better wide receiving talent, significantly better

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Speaker 1: roster at home, much more support, better defensive front to

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Speaker 1: pressure Will Levis, and Will Levis for most of the

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Speaker 1: night out played him with a very spartan, very mediocre

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Speaker 1: receiving tight end core on the road. This franchise in

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Speaker 1: a rebuild with multiple offensive line injuries. Now it's important

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Speaker 1: to note because I know we have a history of

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Speaker 1: Brady going in the sixth round and Dak Prescott going

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Speaker 1: in the third or fourth round and Russell Wilson in

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Speaker 1: the third round. Remember, Will Levis was a first round

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Speaker 1: He was a lottery talent in terms of arm talent,

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Speaker 1: he has a huge arm. Mom went to Yale, was

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Speaker 1: a four point college student. He just turned people off

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Speaker 1: in the interview process. A lot of the gun show

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Speaker 1: stuff to cocky. So he was a first round talent

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Speaker 1: that dropped to the top of the second Kenny Pickett,

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Speaker 1: two general managers told me and a couple of the

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Speaker 1: best guys in the league, Kenny Pickett was the top

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Speaker 1: of the third to middle third talent. But he was

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Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh kid, and the Steelers needed a quarterback now,

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Speaker 1: and it was a bad quarterback class. And so you

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Speaker 1: can see when they play. Levis has a significantly better arm,

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Speaker 1: a special arm. He's bigger, stronger, thicker, plays with more confidence,

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Speaker 1: easier thrower. Kenny Pickett doesn't have a lot of special

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Speaker 1: but he's got pickings Deontay Johnson, a couple of really

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Speaker 1: good backs, I think, a healthier offensive line. He's at home.

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Speaker 1: Winning is not a quarterback stat right now. Obviously the

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Speaker 1: great quarterbacks win more than mediocre quarterbacks or certainly bad quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: But you can see special with Will Levis. Kenny Pickett

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Speaker 1: has played I think twenty one games as a pro,

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Speaker 1: and I think he's had one game with multiple touchdown

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Speaker 1: passes that is hard to do with this receiving corps.

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Speaker 1: Will Levis has played two games and has won multiple

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Speaker 1: touchdown game. This was a big ask for him. Even

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Speaker 1: on the final drive, that was a big ask under pressure,

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Speaker 1: not a lot to work with. I drove him down

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Speaker 1: the field. Will Levis is really really good. And this

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Speaker 1: is what I mean about Kenny Pickett.

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Speaker 2: Folks.

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Speaker 1: It just doesn't take long, you know. I use the

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Speaker 1: analogy all the time. I listen to music. I don't

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Speaker 1: know anything about it, but if you watch the Voice

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Speaker 1: or you watch American Idol, you can tell in fifteen

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Speaker 1: seconds who has talent. It doesn't take long, and none

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Speaker 1: of us are music executives. I looked it up today, Burrow, Trevor, Lawrence,

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, Herbert Dak Mahomes, Russell Wilson. You saw brilliance

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Speaker 1: first year, Jared goffin TUA. You saw brilliance when they

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Speaker 1: finally got an offensive coach McVeigh or Mike McDaniel. So

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Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett's not going to be getting an offensive coach soon.

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Speaker 2: Now. People always point to that.

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Speaker 1: Well, Josh Allen wasn't very good in it initially, But

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Speaker 1: I went and looked at his rookie stants. Now I

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Speaker 1: remember him jumping over people. He was specialist. First year,

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Speaker 1: he had ten passing touchdowns in eighteen total touchdowns. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he ran for eight six hundred and thirty yards of

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Speaker 1: rushing seven yards of carry. There was all sorts of

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Speaker 1: special from Josh Allen his first year, all sorts of special.

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Speaker 1: If you don't see it as you get to Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: the second year, and that's the longest you should have

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Speaker 1: to wait. Will Levis's first start he had four touchdowns

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Speaker 1: and no picks. Four touchdowns, no picks with that Tennessee

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Speaker 1: tight end wide receiver corps and that old line. So

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Speaker 1: I think you already see Will Levis's talent. And again

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Speaker 1: he was a top ten talent arm wise, brain wise.

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Speaker 1: People just thought he was off putting in cocky the

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Speaker 1: gun show at the Combine.

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Speaker 2: People just didn't like him. He interviewed very poorly.

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Speaker 1: Remember he was the guy that used to eat the

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Speaker 1: banana peelon put Manny's in his coffee, and then a

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Speaker 1: couple of teams asked him about that during the interview

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Speaker 1: process and he.

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Speaker 2: Said, why you bringing it up.

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Speaker 1: Reportedly, he was kind of a brusque in the interviews,

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Speaker 1: blunts and people didn't like it. Executives didn't like it.

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Speaker 1: But he has first round, top ten arm talent, so

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Speaker 1: it just doesn't take long.

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Speaker 2: People. There's a rule to.

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Speaker 1: Me that when you start complaining about play calling and

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Speaker 1: wide receiver drops, you have.

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Speaker 2: A bottom tier quarterback. Right.

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Speaker 1: You think Justin Herbert gets great play calling or Mahomes

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Speaker 1: Mahomes receivers lead the NFL and drops. At some point,

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Speaker 1: you got to make plays and again, can you pick it?

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Speaker 2: I'll get the win.

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Speaker 1: But I think if you're a Tennessee Titan fan, you

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Speaker 1: got your quarterback. There's no reason to play Ryan Tannehill.

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Speaker 2: None.

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Speaker 1: Will Levis big, strong, smart, lets it rip, plays with confidence,

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Speaker 1: thick kid. I think he got something now. This organization

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Speaker 1: like New England can't get wide receiver, right. They had

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Speaker 1: Aj Brown for a minute. Now he's an Eagle. But

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Speaker 1: I think you got to be really happy. And I

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Speaker 1: say this regularly, routinely that I am always rooting for

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Speaker 1: all quarterbacks, even Baker Mayfield, to crush it, because nothing's

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Speaker 1: worse than watching backups.

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Speaker 2: Nothing.

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Speaker 1: Look at this weekend in the NFL, I mean there's

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Speaker 1: four games I want to watch. Lamar Jackson's in one

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Speaker 1: of them, two against Mahomes and another one, Burrow and

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen another one, and Dak against Jalen Hurts in

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Speaker 1: another one. I mean, we're only halfway through the season

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Speaker 1: and there's four games I'm really locked into. And the

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Speaker 1: worst quarterback in that group is Geno Smith, who I

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Speaker 1: think led the NFL in passer rating last year.

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Speaker 2: So mediocre quarterback play is.

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Speaker 1: A bad, bad watch. I still feel the same way

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Speaker 1: about Kenny Pickett. He'll win some games. It's a great organization.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they just.

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Speaker 1: Draft and developed so well in Pittsburgh. But Will Levis

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Speaker 1: to me, I see special, I see juice. They got

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Speaker 1: something there, big strong arm, thick kid plays with a

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Speaker 1: ton of confidence. Just get him some help, Okay, Chad Millman,

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Speaker 1: responsible gaming resources. All right, Chad, I am a square,

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Speaker 1: but it had another winning week two one and two.

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Speaker 1: I took Dallas Detroit. On a theory I've been using.

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Speaker 1: It's about week three, which is, if you look at

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Speaker 1: scoring and you look at what's happening and what the

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Speaker 1: referees are allowing, which is more holding that it's really

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Speaker 1: separating more than ever good quarterbacks from average quarterbacks. That

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks that are having some success. Last week, the

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Speaker 1: better quarterback won every game except Denver against Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: And frankly, right now, passer rating Russell's higher than Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: So as I say that, and this is a wonky

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Speaker 1: week for lines, let me throw a couple I like

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Speaker 1: based on favorites.

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Speaker 3: All ready to go, let's hear it brother.

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman, CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: So NFC teams against Lamar. I like Gino, don't like

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Speaker 1: him trailing, don't love him on the road, don't think

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Speaker 1: this is the best number. But at five and a half,

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Speaker 1: I can see them winning by a touchdown Again Gino

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Speaker 1: trailing second half. Baltimore. I believe Baltimore and I've said

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Speaker 1: this for three weeks to the best team in the league.

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Speaker 1: I think Lamar's my MVP. It's a big number. I

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Speaker 1: hate it, but it's one of those four or five

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Speaker 1: numbers I'll roll with. I would take the favorite Ravens

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Speaker 1: my MVP minus five and a half against Seattle Sharper square, Dude.

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Speaker 3: This is a really brutal week. If you can find

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Speaker 3: consensus on any game, I will cover your entire betting

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Speaker 3: table this week, and this game is the centerpiece of

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Speaker 3: the conversation. There is no reason why anybody should be

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Speaker 3: betting on the Ravens. We've got two top ten defenses,

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Speaker 3: We've got a quarterback in Lamar Jackson who is not

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Speaker 3: good at all as a large favorite more than a

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Speaker 3: field goal. Not good when he is a large favorite

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Speaker 3: at home. We've got a coach in Pete Carroll who's

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Speaker 3: great as an under dog against the spread. We've got

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Speaker 3: a really good offense, balanced offense in Seattle. And while

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Speaker 3: while Baltimore's defense is great, it's not that great against

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Speaker 3: the run. So there's no reason anybody should be betting

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Speaker 3: on Baltimore this week. And yet, and yet this number

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Speaker 3: went up from five and a half and then went

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Speaker 3: down to six. So what that tells you is that

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Speaker 3: the wise guys came in on Baltimore at five and

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Speaker 3: a half and they bet Seattle at plus six. So

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Speaker 3: to me, this is a number game, and it's going

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Speaker 3: to be about what number are you seeing? Baltimore five

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Speaker 3: and a half Seattle at six. I will tell you

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Speaker 3: this true story. Sunday night, I'm looking at the lines.

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Speaker 3: I decide I do. The podcast The Favorites was Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 3: We will talk about the lines that we're going to

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Speaker 3: bet the following week. First game that we discussed was

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Speaker 3: this game, and we were both like, we know Seattle

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Speaker 3: is the right side to this second, I have not

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Speaker 3: bet Seattle. I cannot pull the trigger on it. I

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Speaker 3: haven't at Balton either, but I haven't been Seattle. It's

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Speaker 3: a weird game, dude, it's a weird game.

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Speaker 1: Let me throw another one at you. Kansas City minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half offul loss, much better quarterback I've seen.

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Speaker 1: I think Kansas City's defense is the best in the

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Speaker 1: Mahomes era. And I've seen Miami against really good competition

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Speaker 1: and really fast, aggressive defenses. They're not the same. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins got there a week ahead of time. They've

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Speaker 1: got a time advantage. They are closer than Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: But again, three I pass minus two and a half Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: I like case off a loss.

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Speaker 2: Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Another really interesting one, Colin. You know when you and

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Speaker 3: I used to do the Collins Football Show on Sundays

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Speaker 3: on ESPN, and I would get certain games where all

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Speaker 3: of my reporting, all the numbers, nothing would indicate a consensus.

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Speaker 3: Or I would be with you and we'd say, dude,

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Speaker 3: I don't care what people are saying. We'd know football too,

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Speaker 3: this is the right side, and we'd make an executive decision. Yes,

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Speaker 3: we're making an executive decision about the Chiefs. So here's

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Speaker 3: a really interesting thing. The Chiefs opened as two point favorites,

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Speaker 3: it got that up to two and a half, and

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Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, between Tuesday and today, forty

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Speaker 3: eight hours, the wise guys have been pounding the Dolphins.

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Speaker 3: And it could be because the Chiefs are missing Nick Bolton.

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Speaker 3: It could be because the Dolphins got there earlier and

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Speaker 3: people are skeptical. Are we having a real conversation here?

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the

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Speaker 3: history of the NFL. Patrick Mahomes a is a favorite

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Speaker 3: of less than three points. Where you're basically saying, Patrick

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Speaker 3: Mahomes go in a football game. You don't You don't

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Speaker 3: think about this. You just met Patrick Mahomes. This is

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Speaker 3: a no brainer.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'll give you another one. Okay right now.

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Speaker 1: Since Week five, Joe Burrow minus two and a half

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Speaker 1: home against the Bills is completing seventy eight and a

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Speaker 1: half percent of his passes. Think about this, It's not

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Speaker 1: a seven on seven drill seventy eight percent take out

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Speaker 1: September start in October. This is arguably the best team

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Speaker 1: and the best quarterback without question. Now he wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: my MVP because what Lamar does sort of the soul.

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Speaker 1: They're running everything and he's got a bunch of new

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Speaker 1: pieces and it's all working. But again, the numbers come down.

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Speaker 1: Some say it's one and a half, two, two and

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Speaker 1: a half. I'm gonna take Cincinnati. This is also one

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Speaker 1: of those rare spots. I talked about this with Detroit

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Speaker 1: on Monday Night. The Lions never play Monday night football

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Speaker 1: at home, so it's Marty Gras. How many games has

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati hosted that are the national TV game in Cincinnati?

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Speaker 2: Not many.

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Speaker 1: This is really special for them, small market Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 1: They want to show off. I like the Bengals minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Sharp this game. It's really interesting. This game actually opened.

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Speaker 3: The Bengals is one and a half point underdogs. Immediately

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Speaker 3: the wise guys started coming in on the Bengals Sunday Night.

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Speaker 3: Last Sunday Night, it was at one and a half,

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Speaker 3: then it was two, two and a half. Three wise

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Speaker 3: guys took a little bit of a taste at three.

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Speaker 3: But that's the limit. As you were just saying, sometimes

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Speaker 3: this is about the number, right. Everything you just said

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Speaker 3: about Joe Burrow is true. This is a much better

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Speaker 3: team since the bye week he's fully healthy. Do not

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Speaker 3: discount the Bengals defense. Trey Hendrickson is grading out as

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Speaker 3: the second best pass rusher in the NFL right now.

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Speaker 3: He's got eight and a half sacks, one and a

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Speaker 3: half behind Danielle Hunter, the league leader in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, he's got six and a half

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Speaker 3: of his sacks while the Bengals have won for the

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Speaker 3: past five games, Like this defense is starting to get

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Speaker 3: into a much better rhythm. And they've played together for

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Speaker 3: a long time. Their defensive cornery has stayed there for

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Speaker 3: a long time. The other side of the ball, and

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Speaker 3: we've talked about this with the Bills, that makes them

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Speaker 3: a scary team to bet on right now. Matt Mulano

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Speaker 3: All Pro linebacker, true Davius White, Pro Bowl level corner

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Speaker 3: to Kwan Jones defensive lineman. Like they have lost guys

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Speaker 3: at every level that are playmakers. Not just like, okay,

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Speaker 3: we got someone who can fill in. They've lost above

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Speaker 3: average players. That's a defense that's struggling right now.

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Speaker 1: All right, let me give you some underdogs, So that's

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Speaker 1: where I'm prone to go. Let me start with a

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Speaker 1: game that I flipped on today. Vikings plus four and

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Speaker 1: a half at the Falcons, so they're going to Taylor Heineke.

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Speaker 1: I'm a fan of Josh Dobbs, super bright kid. I

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Speaker 1: think Minnesota's left tackle, two top receivers, head coach, tight.

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Speaker 2: End is a really good group. Jordan Addison is popped.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, four and a half salt, Dobbs will make plays

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Speaker 1: with his feet. I think Minnesota is one of the

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Speaker 1: smartest teams in the league. Just certainly unlucky early in

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Speaker 1: the season. In recent weeks not as unlucky. I know

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Speaker 1: it's a new quarterback, but I've seen this with interim

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Speaker 1: coaching changes. You see this this energy. I would take

321
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Speaker 1: the Vikings plus four and a half sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the sharp side. It's not like, oh wow,

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Speaker 3: I can't wait to bet the Vikings this week. The

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Speaker 3: number was at five. It's moved down to four and

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Speaker 3: a half. The Heinike thing for the Falcons is interesting

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Speaker 3: because he's the kind of quarterback that professional betters love

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Speaker 3: to bet on when he's an underdog, because he's so

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Speaker 3: the variants on his performance is so high, and he's

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Speaker 3: will to sling it anywhere anytime. But that's a liability

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Speaker 3: when you're a favorite and making the Falcons this big

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Speaker 3: of a favorite right now, I think undervalues the rest

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Speaker 3: of the Vikings team, as you just said, And so

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Speaker 3: the wise guys are in agreement with you, Colin, and

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Speaker 3: they would take the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: Here Bears now eight and a half again, all odds

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Speaker 1: provided by DraftKings. The Saints aren't going to score a

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Speaker 1: lot of points. I think they have one of the

338
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Speaker 1: weaker coaches in the league. I like their personnel, but

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Speaker 1: I think we have to be we have to acknowledge

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Speaker 1: what Derek carr is. Eight and a half is a

341
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,719
Speaker 1: ton for the record. Montes sweat. Chicago media way too

342
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 1: harsh on that move. There will be no second rounders

343
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,199
Speaker 1: as good as Montees sweat on the defensive line. You

344
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 1: give up a second you don't for Chase Claypool for

345
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,120
Speaker 1: an elite defensive lineman. You give up a second round

346
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Speaker 1: pick when you have two firsts, you're going to trade

347
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Speaker 1: the second one down and get that number second round

348
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Speaker 1: pick back. I thought Chicago media just there. They've had

349
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Speaker 1: so much shrap through the years on the Bears, they

350
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: just immediately say bad move. I had two GMS said

351
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Speaker 1: there are now Montese sweats in the second round.

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Speaker 2: That good.

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Speaker 1: Now forget it, and this coach wants to win now.

354
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Speaker 1: I think the Bears plus eight and a half is

355
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 1: one of the stronger underdog bets. Whatever quarterback plays, they

356
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Speaker 1: both move. Okay, I would take it Sharper square. Yeah,

357
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 1: at eight and a half, it's the play.

358
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Speaker 3: It's a really interesting game, and it's one of the

359
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 3: wise guys have been a little bit anxious to go

360
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:35,479
Speaker 3: all in on. Derek Carr as a favorite is just

361
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 3: not very good right one five to one this season

362
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 3: as a favorite and as a team, the Saints are

363
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 3: not very well coached. I don't think you can go

364
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,679
Speaker 3: in on what happened last week and say, Okay, the

365
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 3: Saints are back. They're operating as they're supposed to. The

366
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Speaker 3: flip side is the Bears defense, even with Montes sweat,

367
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 3: is not going to be a You're really hoping that

368
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 3: the Saints play a ball control game and try not

369
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Speaker 3: to make mistakes and just try to win the game

370
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Speaker 3: and don't get a little bit crazy. And they recognize

371
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 3: the opportunity they have to play against a defense and

372
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Speaker 3: against an offense that is not going to be able

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Speaker 3: to score a lot of points. So I think you're

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00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 3: on the right side here because the number has just

375
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 3: gotten so big.

376
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Speaker 1: Finally, Jets plus three and a half. I don't trust

377
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Speaker 1: Brandon Staley, and I do think Robert Salad gets the

378
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 1: most out of his personnel. The Jets are getting over

379
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 1: a field goal, so the hook is obvious. This is

380
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 1: a Jets team that's ugly but finds ways to win

381
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,639
Speaker 1: ugly games and remain viable with an offense that is

382
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 1: a water pistol. This comes down to trust. I think

383
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Speaker 1: sala is the right coach with the wrong quarterback. I

384
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 1: think Staley is the wrong coach with the right quarterback.

385
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 1: I'm not laying that hook. I would take the Jets

386
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: plus three and a half sharper square.

387
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Speaker 3: Boom, love it go. Finally, Finally, Colin, you're looking at

388
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 3: an ugly game, a home dog getting the hook with

389
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Speaker 3: a quarterback who probably shouldn't even be considered as a

390
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:16,400
Speaker 3: backup on most rosters, and you're playing the right move.

391
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 3: It's exactly what you just said. This has been an

392
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 3: opportunistic defense. They get up when they're playing the best quarterbacks.

393
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Speaker 3: It is a coaching mismatch. It is a game at

394
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Speaker 3: home for a team that has a lot to play

395
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 3: for still, so yes, please thank you for taking the

396
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: New York Jets at plus three and a half, because

397
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Speaker 3: I was afraid that was going to be the game

398
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 3: that I have to convince you of. And so now

399
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:45,959
Speaker 3: if you say, what are you going to convince me of,

400
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to look at my notes and be like,

401
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,120
Speaker 3: oh my god, he took all the ugliest games, which

402
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 3: is impressive.

403
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Speaker 1: Okay, so we do this every week. I ask you

404
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 1: about a game that I want you to talk me

405
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 1: into that I have a feeling for. I like the

406
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: Houston tech sense I really really do. I like their coach,

407
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: I like their quarterback, I like their spirit.

408
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 2: CJ.

409
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: Stroud's come back down to Earth a little. People have film,

410
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 1: but minus two and a half hosting the Bucks who

411
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 1: don't have a ton to play for. I think Tampa

412
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 1: was a cute story, not a cute team. The reality

413
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 1: is Houston still in that wonky division. I think still

414
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: convinces itself it can be a wild card team and

415
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: really truly believes it. And frankly, I think the Texans

416
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 1: personnel is a little better than people think. They're just young.

417
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 1: I would swallow the two and a half here Sharper square.

418
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 3: No, honest to God, it's all over the place. And

419
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 3: it's why this number is still a two and a half.

420
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: If there was a real consensus, this number would have

421
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 3: gone down to two or it would have gone up

422
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 3: to three. And you can always tell that's the case

423
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,360
Speaker 3: with a number of two and a half, that it's

424
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 3: settled there on Sunday night has not moved. I bet

425
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 3: the bucks at plus two and a half. I feel

426
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: like it's possible. The book is out on CJ. Stroud.

427
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: I feel like if you look at you mentioned right

428
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 3: off the top, Russell Wilson better quarterback rating right now

429
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: than Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, more touchdown passes than Patrick Mahomes,

430
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson, fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. If you were

431
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 3: to do a blind who's the QB with just their stats, CJ.

432
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: Shroud and Baker Mayfield, they would generally be the same

433
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 3: completion percentage, the same, pretty close QB rating, the same

434
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 3: CJ has fewer interceptions but not a ton and then

435
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: Baker has another touchdown, so you're not getting a huge

436
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 3: quarterback advantage here. In the past three games, CJ has

437
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 3: definitively come down to Earth after having QB ratings over

438
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 3: one hundred in his first three games. So there's not

439
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,199
Speaker 3: a huge consensus here. I could see why you're going

440
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 3: to take the Texans two and a half less than

441
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,959
Speaker 3: a field goal at home. Probably a good matchup for them,

442
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 3: but it's not one you're going to get consensus. I'm

443
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 3: not going to be betting on the Texans, all right.

444
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: Give me an ugly one. You know a team I

445
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 1: have stayed away from all year?

446
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 3: Oh? I know a lot of them.

447
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Colts, the Patriots. The New England game was

448
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: interesting to me. So Washington comes off a vaunted rival

449
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: back down to Earth. New England's only minus three to

450
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: two and a half. I think New England's the side.

451
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: So I'm guessing that's the ugly.

452
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 2: Game you're going to talk me into.

453
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 3: How about the Carolina Panthers plus two and a half?

454
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 3: So number one? Number one? The Panthers, they were the

455
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 3: Colts were. They really struggled defensively. We've seen that, and

456
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 3: they've consistently gotten worse as the season has gone on.

457
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: The Panthers, meanwhile, made a very specific change, and that

458
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 3: was Frank Reich no longer calling the place, and even

459
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 3: in a couple of games, even though it was a

460
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 3: low scoring game against the Texans, they beat the Texans, right,

461
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 3: They beat the Texans in Carolina, where the defense tends

462
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 3: to play better. Now Bryce Young is moving the ball

463
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 3: more quickly, the pace of the offense is faster. This

464
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 3: is not an Indianapolis defense that is equipped to beat

465
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 3: a team like the Panthers on the road. They're not

466
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 3: that good. You really want to bet on Gardner Minshew

467
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: as a road favorite. So the wise guys are back

468
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 3: in the Panthers here. It's an ugly game. It's one

469
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 3: of the few games on the board where people are

470
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 3: looking at it as a professional better and being like, oh, yeah,

471
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 3: that's the one I'm taking.

472
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: Finally, I stay away from big emotional TV games. I

473
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: think the numbers right, Philadelphia minus three. I think one

474
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: of the reasons they played poorly last week they knew

475
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: they were playing Dallas. So I think they'll win twenty

476
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: seven to twenty three. Dak's a great home favorite. I

477
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: think the last three games against Philly he's three and

478
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: zero two or nonsense. You know, Gardner Minshew one of

479
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 1: almost a week seventeen game when Philadelphia emptied the bench

480
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: just for our audience. It does feel like the numbers

481
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: right to me, Yes, is there anything wise?

482
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 3: Guys think exactly. It is split down the middle, no joke.

483
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,479
Speaker 3: Every single person I've spoken to, they find reasons to

484
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,120
Speaker 3: like the Eagles, they find reasons to like the Cowboys.

485
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 3: I like the Eagles better coach, much better coach. I

486
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 3: think they have a better roster. I think they are

487
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 3: more comfortable winning right the Cowboys. Sometimes you watch them

488
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 3: play and they seem like a super emotional kid who

489
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 3: when things are going well like they are the happiest

490
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 3: person in the world, and when things aren't, they don't

491
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 3: really know how to manage it. I think Dak is

492
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 3: a little bit too boisterous for someone who has really

493
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 3: never won anything, and takes some of these things a

494
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 3: little bit too sensitively. And I think Jalen is so

495
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 3: even keyo and so comfortable whether you're winning or losing.

496
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,479
Speaker 3: The challenge is is Jalen hurt? But I do think

497
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 3: the Eagles as short favorites. To me, it's almost like

498
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. It's going to be hard for me not

499
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 3: to take them. If all I need to do is

500
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 3: win by a field goal.

501
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: They're also a very good big game team, a big

502
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 1: situation team, the best team right now on fourth down

503
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: and third down in the league, which keeps it away

504
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: from CD and DAK. I think that's a big deal.

505
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 1: We agree the best fourth down team with Tush push,

506
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: they're now the best third down team and big situational,

507
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: dramatic games. That's an undervalued stat.

508
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:40,719
Speaker 2: Move the chains.

509
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 3: You also got to think about AJ Brown right five

510
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 3: straight games, one hundred and twenty five receiving yards or more.

511
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 3: The Cowboys secondary it's been playing better, much much better

512
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: than I think people are giving it credit for, given

513
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 3: the fact they've had so many injuries. But AJ Brown

514
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 3: is a different kind of player right now. He's a

515
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 3: guy who's less than one hundred yards behind Tyreek Hill

516
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 3: to lead the league in receiving yardage because of the

517
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 3: run that he's on. AJ Brown can make people get

518
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 3: healthy fast. So if Jalen Hursts is injured, throw the

519
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 3: ball to AJ Brown and you're going to see how

520
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 3: quickly this team in Philadelphia starts to play a little

521
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 3: better and starts to feel a little bit better.

522
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: All right, buddy, Chad Millman, Action Network CCO. Good seeing

523
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: him man, good luck to us all.

524
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 3: Colin the volume