WEBVTT - Is the Earth really Running Out of Sand, Dirt and Bacon? 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:02.360 Guess what will? What's that mango? Do you know that 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:05.600 Johnny Carson once caused a toilet paper shortage? You know, 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:07.840 I know we've talked about this story before. It's been 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:10.240 a long time. Like I remember he joked that there 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:13.159 was no toilet paper, and all of his listeners like 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:15.760 went out and hoarded toilet paper thinking that we might 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:18.119 run out or something like that. Right. Yeah, So that's 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:20.800 basically the story. I mean, there's a little more to it. 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:25.000 According to Snopes, this Wisconsin congressman, this guy Harold Frolick, 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:27.960 and actually realized there was a pulp paper shortage, so 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:30.240 he was kind of trying to think down the line, 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:32.479 and he issued the statement worrying about the day when 0:00:32.479 --> 0:00:35.920 the government might have to ration toilet paper. Carson picked 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:38.200 up the item, and then for weeks it was really 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.040 hard to buy toilet paper. In fact, people were so 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:43.640 worried that stores not only ran out of toilet paper, 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:46.440 they also ran out of paper towels as well. Wow, 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:48.720 that's pretty crazy. And is there any sense of like 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:51.879 whether Carson felt bad about this or what. Yeah, I mean, 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:53.960 I think he mostly felt bad for himself. He didn't 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:55.680 want to be remembered as the guy who caused a 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:58.680 toilet paper shortage, which is if you ever saying why 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:01.880 we're bringing it up today. But today's show is about 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:04.440 some very real things we're running out of, from sand 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:08.480 to bacon to precious metals and thankfully no t P 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:32.640 Let's dive in. Hey their podcast, Lester is welcome to 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:35.200 Part Time Genius. I'm Will Pearson and is always I'm 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:37.560 joined by my good friend Man Guesho Ticketer and on 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:39.920 the other side of the soundproof glass I can actually 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:42.120 hardly see him at this point. This guy has been 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:46.160 building this barricade of sandbags for days now. That's our 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:49.280 friend and producer Tristan McNeil. So I've got to say 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:51.960 this might be my fault. Earlier this week I was 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:53.960 telling Tristan and how the world's supply of sand is 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:56.840 getting low, and ever since he's just been stockpiling this 0:01:56.920 --> 0:02:00.480 stuff like there's no tomorrow. Well he must have enough 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:02.880 in there to start his own private beach, which I've 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.440 heard might be his goal as well. So anyway, good 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:08.320 luck to Tristan. But though to be fair, humans really 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:10.480 are running out of sand from what I've heard of 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:13.440 that that's true, right, Yeah, And that's not all either, 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:16.520 Like they're actually all kinds of unexpected resources that the 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.080 world's in short supply of. This includes everything from like 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:23.000 coffee to helium to even dirt. And a big reason 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:25.440 for those dwindling supplies is just how much the human 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:27.760 population has grown. So if you think about it, like 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:31.639 in the two thousands, the population was at six billion worldwide, 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:35.040 and today that numbers way closer to seven point six billion, 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:39.160 and it's growing fast. And with that kind of unprecedented 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:42.360 growth in such a short period of time, it's really 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:45.040 easy to see how we might get light on certain resources. 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:47.920 I mean, but sand, that's what's so surprising. And I 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.000 say this having just been to the beach, you know, 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.720 not too long ago, so I really wouldn't have thought 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:55.160 this was something that we'd ever be running out of. 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:58.520 So what is the story on this? Exactly? So weirdly, 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.639 the blame lies with the const ruction industry, and that's 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.920 because sand is actually a crucial ingredient for producing concrete. 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:08.720 In fact, sand typically makes up about of a wet 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.840 concrete mixture, and it adds strength to the finished product. 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:14.560 But to loop this back to the population boom, you 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:17.400 just have to think about like how much new construction 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.359 was needed to house and service all these extra people, right, 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:25.200 Like you need new apartment buildings, you need skyscrapers, sidewalks, roads, 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.480 and I guess all sorts of infrastructure to support that 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:31.440 sort of growth. Then that means a lot of concrete 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:33.800 and by extension, a lot of sand. And that all 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.920 that makes sense. But you know, if you think about it, 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:39.040 there's sand used in several other things that we make, 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:42.600 like glassware, even electronics, and I would think that has 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:44.680 to be contributing at least a little bit though, right 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.840 it is. And actually sand and gravel are so useful 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:51.000 in certain industries that they've become the most extracted materials 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:54.560 on the planet. Like it even surpasses fossil fuels and 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:58.040 biomass when measured by weight. But even still there there's 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.280 no question that the bulk of all that extra at 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:03.440 sand and gravel is being used for construction. You know, 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:06.680 a few years ago, the US Geological Survey estimated that 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:09.480 about thirty billion tons of sand and gravel were being 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.720 used in global construction projects. And this was every year. 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:16.359 And by contrast, all of the world's other industry uses 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:19.920 for sand account for about fourteen billion tons annually. Wow, 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:23.120 so forty four billion tons per year and you're saying, 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.440 but that like two thirds of that goes towards construction 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.880 by itself, right, exactly. But but here's the thing. Forty 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:33.799 four billion tons is considered a conservative estimate. There's actually 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:36.320 a strong chance that many countries have been under reporting 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:39.520 their sand used for years to hide the true extraction rates, 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:42.040 and the result of this is that some regions are 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:45.000 now running out of sand altogether. They have also been 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:49.039 some straight up sand thefts from beaches, like in the Caribbean. 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:50.800 I read the story from two thousand and eight about 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:54.000 Jamaica where five truckloads of sand were taken from White 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:57.520 Beach overnight and uh, and police were just baffled where 0:04:57.520 --> 0:04:59.719 they went, Like they went to other resorts, they halted 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:03.280 con instruction, but they just couldn't match that sand anywhere else. 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:06.680 Like it's kind of stunning. But um, sand, you know, 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:08.839 if you think about it, has always been a local 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:11.880 product because just about every country has some of their own. 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.480 But now that some regions are exhausting their native supply, 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:19.280 sand has actually become a globally traded commodity. And it's 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:23.040 crazy to see that I mean, sands international trade value 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:26.640 has risen about six over the last twenty five years. 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:29.200 All right, so the sand business is booming like we've 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.240 never seen it before. But I'm curious, like, what what's 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:33.559 the downside to all of us? Is it just higher 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:37.120 construction cost or what? Well, I mean, the financial expense 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.520 is definitely a drawback, but it's kind of the least 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:42.359 of our concerns. The bigger problem is that sand mining 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:45.719 has all these terrible effects on the environment. It causes flooding, 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:50.320 It damages infrastructure, plutes rivers, you know, and it ruins beaches. 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:52.360 And that last part is really where a lot of 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:55.400 the human cost comes in because beaches and wetlands there's 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:59.280 these natural protective barriers for coastal communities. So you know 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:03.159 why spread sand mining. Along with all the erosion it causes, 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:07.080 it actually exposes people to greater danger from floods and storms. Well, 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:08.960 and if you think about other issues, we've got sea 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:11.400 levels that are rising all the time, so it's you know, 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:13.520 it's not a great position to be in. I mean, 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.720 the situation is even worse than developing countries like parts 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.680 of Asia and Africa, and that's because sand exploitation in 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:23.720 these regions has actually led to organized crime groups getting involved. So, uh, 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:28.200 they're into like illegal sand mining and trade and it's 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:31.280 wild to think about, but they're really these sand mafia's 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:34.240 out there, these bribes, threats and violence to control black 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.960 market sales. Well, I'm curious, like why are countries strip 0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:41.040 mining beaches and coastlines at all? I mean, it seems 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:43.359 like there's plenty of sand in the earth deserts, so 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:45.440 why would we not just be using that? Yeah, I 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:49.200 mean it's a great question, but ultimately, desert sand doesn't work. 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.839 It's it's because it's eroded from wind rather than water, 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:55.680 and desert sand ends up being like too fine to 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.800 be used in construction materials. I mean, concrete made from 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.240 that kind of sand doesn't hold well together, which you 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.479 know makes it much weaker as a result. But traditionally 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:07.400 the majority of constructions send was mined from river banks 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:10.440 and quarries, but now, with demand at this global height, 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:13.560 taking stands from beaches and coastlines has also become common. 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.480 What's a shame. I'm curious, So, like how desperate is 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:19.280 the situation? Like, are we really building that much more 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:22.160 than we used to? Or what so, not all countries 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:24.680 are showing this dramatic rise and sand consumption, but the 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:27.280 ones that have are really using enough for this to 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:30.080 be worrisome. So, for for instance, according to the US 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:35.840 Geographical Survey, China, India, Brazil, the US and Turkey, these 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.920 are the biggest concrete producers in the world with you know, 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:42.200 China and India account for two thirds of the total production, 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:46.160 and China is actually the worst defender. Two fourteen report 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:49.400 from the UN Environmental Program revealed that over the past 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:54.280 twenty years, the countrys cement uses skyrocketed by four seven percent, 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.280 and if you compare that to the fifty eight percent 0:07:57.400 --> 0:07:59.360 increase in the rest of the world, you can see 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:03.280 why China's considered a sand hog. Oh yeah, definitely. I'm curious, like, 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:05.560 what is the solution to all this, because I know 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:09.680 we can't exactly ban concrete, right, Yeah, obviously most countries 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:12.400 aren't going to go for that. There's some promising alternatives. 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:14.880 For example, engineers in the UK are working on a 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.760 new kind of concrete that uses not only like a 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:20.520 smaller amount of sand, but also makes up the difference 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:23.920 with these plastic pellets. Um There's also the option to 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:27.640 cut back on concrete usage in favor of more sustainable materials. 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:31.920 We're talking about straw here or recycled plastics. Um. Another 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:33.880 bet is just to make use of the sand we've 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:37.439 already extracted. So if we got better recycling used concrete 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:40.360 and glass bottles, we'd actually put a big dent in 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:43.800 the need for fresh construction sand. But probably the best 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:46.840 way to prevent a global sand crisis is where countries 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.040 to come up with an agreement on sand usage. I mean, 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:53.920 we already have these international agreements for other natural resources, 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:56.199 so why not do the same for sand. Well, what's 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:58.080 a good point? I think we're just so used to 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:00.520 having this abundance of sand, and so it never really 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:02.200 occurred to us that we, you know, we should be 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:05.079 trying to conserve it. So, you know, but most people 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:09.080 think about these finite resources, but sand really doesn't tend 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:11.200 to come up as one of those, at least when 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:13.840 we're thinking about them or talking about them. Yeah, And 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:15.920 and that makes sense on some level, because new sand 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:19.480 is continually being produced, right, Like, sand is just bits 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.360 of rock and shell that have been worn down to 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:25.400 their most basic elements, and that process is going on constantly. 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:29.160 But what gets overlooked is how incredibly long that timeline is. 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:31.319 We've gotten to the point where we're using much more 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:33.920 sand than could ever be replaced in a lifetime, where 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:36.839 even in a bunch of lifetimes. Well, that's something we 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:39.040 should talk about before we go much further. Is like, 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.400 what do we really mean when we say the world 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:43.800 is running out of a resource? Because you know, it 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:46.200 can sound a little alarmist to say we're running out 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.720 of sand or coffee or whatever, and especially if that 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:53.840 resource will never really be exhausted. For example, you know, 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:56.400 for all the fuel and energy crisis that the world 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.280 is known, we won't ever actually run out of oil 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.600 or gas. Are these substances, they will continue to accumulate 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:06.280 naturally over time. But what will happen eventually is that 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:09.400 will deplete all the easy to access fuel deposits. So 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:11.880 you know, even though oil will still be there, the 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:14.640 cost of getting it is going to skyrocket, and then 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:16.640 you know, most people will just be priced out of 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.800 using it as a fuel source. Yeah, and aside from 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:22.959 certain species of extinct plants or animals, I'm not sure 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:24.959 if the planets ever really truly run out of a 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.920 natural resource, like apparently there's this mineral called cry light, 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:33.160 and it's used in pesticides and also in processing aluminum foil, 0:10:33.800 --> 0:10:36.960 and by most accounts, this is something that we've completely 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.560 run out of, Like the last cry light mine was 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:41.839 closed in the nineteen eighties and we've been using a 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:45.240 synthetic alternative to make bug spray and foil ever since. 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.200 But that's not to say that the Earth is completely 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.360 out of cry light, Like they're these rich, deep veins 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:53.920 in the mineral that still exists all over the globe. 0:10:53.960 --> 0:10:56.800 It's just at the going rate for cry light wouldn't 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.960 justify the cost of mining it. So from a practical standpoint, 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.960 we basically run out of cry late, even if there's 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:04.880 still a lot out there, right, And you know, none 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.840 of this should downplay the severity of these situations, and 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:10.360 if anything, the idea that we're close to being priced 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:13.079 out of all of these useful substances, I would think 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.520 that should be a wake up call at the very least. Yeah, 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:18.240 for sure. I mean, have you heard about China's monopoly 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.120 on rare earth metals. The country is said to control 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:24.960 more than of the planet's rare earth deposits, and they 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:29.360 can actually restrict airports on those supplies any time they want. Like, 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:31.839 it's easy to imagine that kind of thing leading to 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:35.000 international disputes at some point. Well, I mean, we've already 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:37.560 said that China is using the most sands, and now 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:40.760 we're seeing that they're also hogging all of the best metals. 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:43.280 And you know, I kind of want to be outraged 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:45.240 about all of this, but I have to admit I 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.920 don't really know anything about rare earth metals. So you 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:51.680 tell me, should I be outraged about this? Yeah, Well, 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.640 gave gave me a primer, and I'm gonna tell you 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:57.040 about it because I let you make up your own mind. 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:01.320 There are currently seventeen elements classify it as rare earth minerals, 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:04.800 and this includes stuff like scandium and terbium, which are 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:07.360 used to make everything from circuit boards and smartphones to 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:11.959 um missile guidance systems to even magnets used in wind turbines. 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:14.880 And you know, these medals aren't quite as rare as 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:18.760 their names suggests, but they are incredibly useful and they 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.760 aren't easy to source outside of China. And adding to 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:23.640 this concern is the fact that China likes to keep 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.080 its cars close to its best. I mean, we have 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:29.240 no idea exactly how much of these minerals the country 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:31.920 still has left in reserve, or how much longer it 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:33.840 will be willing to trade them and share them with 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:37.400 rival nations, like if and when that supply drives up, 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:39.600 we might have to turn to lunar mining to get 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.079 our rare earth fixts. I mean, what strikes me about 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.800 this is just how unsexy of our problem it is. 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.120 I mean, you know, if rare earth elements maybe in 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.240 short supply, but how many of us even really know 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.080 what they are, let alone what they're used for. And 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.440 so it seems like that's one of the biggest hurdles 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.480 to bringing awareness to issues, you know, like these dwindling 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:02.280 sand resources, or other minerals, or just anything that's like 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.960 this that we don't really understand. I mean, it is, 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:07.640 but we shouldn't little lack of sex of field stop 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:11.520 us from talking about something really boring but also important. Well, 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:13.839 you know, let's double down and talk about what has 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:16.960 to be one of the least provocative resources in short supply, 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.199 and that's the very dirt beneath our feet. But before 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:34.280 we dig in, let's take a quick break you're listening 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:36.719 to part time genius, and we're talking about some unexpected 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:39.520 resources that the world is running out of. And speaking 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.720 of which will you already alluded to our dwindling dirt supply, 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:45.680 But just how bad is this damage? Well, the problem 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:47.880 isn't so much a lack of dirt, but the lack 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:50.960 of quality dirt. So in particular, we're running out of 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.560 usable top soil, which is that layer of dirt that 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:56.760 contains the most nutrients that allow plant life to grow. 0:13:57.320 --> 0:13:59.920 And it's frightening, it is to admit by most calculation, 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.800 and I think we're down to about sixty years worth 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.760 of top soil on average. So you're saying that in 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.760 about sixty years we won't be able to grow crops anymore. 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:10.720 I mean, that's the long and short of it. Because 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.280 at this point, roughly of the world's agricultural soil is 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:18.560 classified as either degraded or seriously degraded. And these are 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:20.680 the terms that refer to how little top soil an 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.560 area of land contains. And when you run the numbers 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.360 on this, we've actually lost about half the topsail on 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:29.200 Earth and just the past hundred and fifty years or so, 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:31.640 and so that means that most of the nutrients the 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.640 dirt once contained are gone now and as a result 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.040 of this, we're growing a lot less food than we 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.960 used to. But even beyond that, what we do manage 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.600 to grow is far less nutritious than it used to be. 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:47.400 For instance, modern wheat varieties contain fifty less micronutrients than 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.520 the older strains. And it's a similar case with fruits 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:52.960 and vegetables. I mean, many of those have lost half 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:55.320 their nutritional value or more and that's just in the 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:59.200 years since nineteen fifty. So this is actually terrifying to 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.280 think about, especial since it sounds like the problem will 0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:05.320 get significantly worse. But what is the problem exactly? Like, 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.280 what's degrading the soil so much? Well, a lot of 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:11.280 this soul degradation is due to the farming techniques that 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:14.280 strip carbon and the nutrients from the soil, and that 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.520 just makes it weaker and less robust than the process. 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:20.200 So this is stuff like excessive tilling or the overuse 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:24.360 of harmful pesticides or fertilizers, and these are all methods 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:26.440 that put a lot of strain on the soil and 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:29.440 they also up the amounts of salts and acids that 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:32.480 the soil contains, and of course, over time this makes 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.200 the dirt less and less hospitable to the plants that 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.320 we want to grow there. Okay, so that then you 0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:40.600 can just reverse those practices, right, like, Uh, couldn't we 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.400 just do away with synthetic fertilizers and I don't know, 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.400 like investing good old fashioned manure. I mean, that would 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:49.680 be a great start, no question about that. But there's 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.760 actually another major issue at play here, and it's, you know, 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.120 something I haven't thought that much about until I started 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.000 skimming through this book. And the book is called The 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:01.200 Ground Beneath Us and it's by Paul Bogart. And what 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:03.400 Paul points out is the sheer speed at which we're 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:06.080 paving over some of the most fertile soil that we have. 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.200 So I'm just going to read a little excerpt from 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:11.240 the book, and so here's what it says. Human settlements 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.560 have traditionally taken root in fertile areas, and as these 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:18.320 increasingly urban areas grow in human numbers, we're developing the 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.400 ground and thus losing the best soils for growing food. 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.000 In the United States, the amount of ground being lost 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:27.280 to development is stunning more than a million acres per 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.720 year as one result. Whereas in nineteen eighty the nation 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:33.360 had an average of nearly two acres of crop land 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.040 for each citizen, thirty years later, and with ninety million 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.320 people added, that number had fallen to one point two 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.520 acres per American. All this might not matter so much 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.200 if we could just find more soil, or just make 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:50.160 more soil ourselves, but for all practical purposes, soil is 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:54.800 a non renewable resource. The recipe for soil is incredibly complex, 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:59.480 requiring an intricate mix of the right chemistry, biology, and physics, 0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:02.680 and it simply takes a long time to form the 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:06.399 rule of thumb, between five hundred and several thousand years 0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:09.600 for an inch of top soil, so incredible for just 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:11.680 an inch of it. It's kind of like sand, right, 0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:14.080 Like like the world continues to make new top soil, 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.880 but not nearly fast enough to keep pace with how 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.399 we use it. So it might be time to rethink 0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.280 how we're using it right, and especially the whole paving 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.879 over huge tracks of it in one go part. And 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:27.719 you know that's not a process you can just undo. 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.600 There's no going back. Once the ground is paved which 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:34.040 is why there's this saying among environmentalists that asphalt is 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:37.840 the land's last crop and that that's that's clever, but 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.840 it's also really chilling. But you know, it says, since 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:43.120 we're already on a downbarad spiral here, if you want 0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:46.320 a truly scary reason to worry about the global food supply, 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:50.320 I've got two words for you. Phosphorus shortage. All right, well, 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.879 you're gonna have to explain why this is scary. Remind 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.200 us again what what exactly phosphorus is and what it's 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.800 used for. Well, I mean, phosphorus is a mineral that's 0:17:59.880 --> 0:18:03.640 used in all kinds of products. It's used in pharmaceuticals, detergents, 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:07.960 building materials, food preservatives. But you know, probably most importantly, 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:12.159 it's an active ingredient in most high quality fertilizers. We 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:14.760 spread a lot of phosphorus on our crops every year, 0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:17.000 So if we were to run out of it before 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:20.040 sourcing a suitable alternative food, production would actually take a 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:22.560 huge hit. So how likely is it that will run 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:24.720 out of phosphorus or is it more a question of 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.400 win at this point? Yeah, So there's a term called 0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:30.240 peak phosphorus and it's basically the point in time when 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:33.919 humanity will have hit the maximum production rate possible for phosphorus. 0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:37.439 So the idea is that from that point on the 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:41.679 mineral become harder and harder to source. So most researchers 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:45.320 seem to think we'll hit peak phosphorus by and then 0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:49.800 completely wipe out our reserves by But there are rosier 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.200 projections as well. They they think we might be able 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.520 to stretch out our reserves for another couple hundred years. 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:56.880 I mean, I actually think it's kind of weird. How 0:18:56.920 --> 0:19:01.280 two hundred years until famine is really the optimistic take here, 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:03.800 And so I don't know, I'm curious what got us 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:05.840 in this trouble in the first place. Was there just 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.439 never that much phosphorus to go around, or are we 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:11.200 just blowing through it at this reckless rate or what's 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:13.880 the issue? Yeah, it's a little of both. I Mean, 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:16.560 there's lots of phosphorus in the world, but the majority 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:18.480 of it is locked up in the Earth's crust or 0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:21.280 in the bodies of living organisms. So I guess the 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.560 most cost effective way to source of stuff has always 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:25.480 been to mind it in the form of phosphate rock. 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:28.920 I mean, the trouble is that only a handful of 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:32.439 countries possessed significant deposits of this rock, and you know 0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:35.080 they aren't always as frugal with it as you might 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:37.679 want to be. I get the feeling we're talking about 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.120 China again here, though, right. I mean, don't don't tell 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.160 me they're hogging all the phosphorus in addition to everything else, 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:45.879 are they? Yeah? So, historically China has had one of 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.160 the world's largest reserves of phosphate rock, but even they're 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:51.560 running load these days. Not that you'd be able to 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:54.160 tell from how the farmers use it. Well, what makes 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:56.720 you say that? So? Back in two thousand nine, China 0:19:56.720 --> 0:20:00.440 Agricultural University published a study that found that northern Chinese 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:05.199 farmers use about five pounds of fertilizer per acre. It 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:07.520 sounds like a lot, but then you realize it's actually 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:11.359 six times as much fertilizer as the average American farmer uses. 0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:14.560 And if that's not bad enough, the overuse of phosphorus 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:16.480 is compounded by the fact that most of it gets 0:20:16.560 --> 0:20:20.200 washed down into the ocean by rainwater. I mean, could 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:22.400 this be a blessing in disguise? Like if that much 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.240 phosphorus is swirling around in the ocean's currents. Because is 0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.040 there a way to start mining it from the ocean 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:30.080