1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot Com. 7 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: We have been talking today about the effect of Hurricane 8 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: Harvey on gas prices and their lack of effect, frankly 9 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: on crude prices. I want to bring in Libby to 10 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: do his partner and portfolio manager, Cushing Asset Management, which 11 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 1: is based in Dallas and overseas nearly four billion dollars 12 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: of assets. Libby, can we get your sense of why 13 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: we're seeing the increase in gas prices? Uh, and certainly 14 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: that will likely affect the prices that people see at 15 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: the pump, whereas we're actually seeing crude prices decline. Can 16 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: you explain this to us? Yeah, I think that we've 17 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: got a lot of moving parts going on right now. Certainly, 18 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: the the storm situation is still active and we're going 19 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 1: to probably continue to see more more damage and more 20 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: refineries maybe come shut in. But on the crude side, UM, 21 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,040 Speaker 1: you're probably not seeing much reaction because what's happening is 22 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: as as the crude UM W T I to Brent 23 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 1: spread widens, that makes our exports more attractive. And so 24 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: if there's an potential increase for exports, of course the 25 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,479 Speaker 1: ship the Houston ship channel has to open. UM. Then 26 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: that's a little bit of a positive. But reality is 27 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: that at some point there is no place for this 28 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: crewd to go. If all the refineries are shut down, 29 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 1: UM and to you're gonna have a problem. UH. And 30 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: I would imagine you're gonna see some more weakness on 31 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: in crude on the flip side, on the refined products. 32 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 1: Even though we've seen gasoline futures jump, you have to 33 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: remember the damage that's being done is also creating demand destruction. UH. 34 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: And as we see this continue to unfold, this could 35 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: be months of of of time UH and years of 36 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 1: potential rebuild of the whole area because of this massive 37 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: historic flooding and that demand destruction UM is going to 38 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: probably put some pressure on refined products. So gasoline jump now, 39 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: we're probably going to see that come back in Well, Libby, 40 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 1: I wonder if you could give us. Any estimate in 41 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: your mind about let's say, the infrastructure that has been 42 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: damaged or that is key. For example, I know Exxon 43 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 1: Mobile has a big refining operation in Baytown. Uh, there 44 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: are over seven hundred platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. 45 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 1: Another statistic, you know, more than a quarter of all 46 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: natural gas production in the Gulf has been closed down. 47 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: What are some of the most important things that you're 48 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: watching as a manager of you know, over three and 49 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:17,119 Speaker 1: a half billion dollars focused mainly on master limited partnerships. Yeah, 50 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: I think that that. You know, there's seven thirty seven 51 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,839 Speaker 1: platforms in the Gulf. A hundred and five were evacuated 52 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 1: for the storms. You're probably looking about a quarter roughly 53 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:27,679 Speaker 1: give or take a couple of percents of oil and 54 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: gas being production being shut in. But the key thing 55 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: is going to be, uh, the refineries and going forward 56 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: and how that impacts obviously the upstream companies is if 57 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: there's no outlet, no place to push the crude oil um, 58 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: then they're going to have to slow production. At the 59 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: same time, on the midstream side, if there is not 60 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: a place or volumes to be flowing, that has potential 61 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,839 Speaker 1: impact on on the mid steam stream business. I think 62 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: the thing that you want to box right now is, 63 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: you know, we have about pen refineries, including that big 64 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: X on Baytown refinery down there's another huge refinery that's 65 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: actually bigger than Baytown, it's the Motiva refinery and Port Arthur. 66 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: If we begin to see, you know, the seventeen refineries 67 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: a third of our capacity on the Gulf Coast more 68 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: of those have to shut down because of of the flooding, UM, 69 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 1: then that is really going to create some issues for 70 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: some of the upstream and some of the midstream energy 71 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 1: companies over the short term. Libby, over the longer term, 72 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: do you think that this disaster will continue to accelerate 73 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 1: the move of oil production, of crude production to uh 74 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,679 Speaker 1: the Northern States, to sort of Middle America and away 75 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: from the Gulf Coast. No, I don't think you're going 76 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 1: to see that because the most prolific basins, certainly on 77 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: the oil side, are in Texas and Oklahoma, um and 78 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 1: obviously being impacted, but the Permian and the Eagle Ford 79 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 1: is the most southern field that is could be impacted 80 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: by the hurricane. But the Permian is further west and north, 81 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: and of course in Oklahoma. Uh, there's there's a lot 82 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: of oil production in the Scoop stacked area, so so 83 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: I don't think that is going to change. And that 84 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: our most prolific natural gas basin is the Marcels on 85 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: the East Post, so I don't see that changing. I 86 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: actually think what this does and we'll we'll again, We'll 87 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 1: see we need to balance how much supply impact there 88 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: is with how much demand destruction, uh there is, and 89 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: if that begins to change our days to cover or 90 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:50,359 Speaker 1: our inventory numbers either way, either higher or lower, that's 91 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: where we're gonna have some some real impacts. And you 92 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 1: can see that positively or or negatively reflected in the 93 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: stock prices. I want to thank you for joining us. 94 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: Levy two dues is a part our portfolio manager, Cushing 95 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: Asset Management. They're based in Dallas, Texas. Three point seven 96 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: billion dollars of assets under management. Want to thank you 97 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 1: for spending time with us today and talking about this 98 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: topic once again. UH. The cost of Hurricane Harvey could 99 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: end up being more than twenty four billion dollars when 100 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 1: you include the effects of flooding on the labor force, 101 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: the power grid, transportation, and other elements of the region's 102 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: energy sector plus the residential toll. Here to tell us 103 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 1: more about the insurance angle is Jonathan Adams, our senior 104 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 1: insurance industry analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Jonathan, I want you 105 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: to begin, if you can, by just describing the different 106 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: kinds of insurance, because there's flood insurance, wind insurance, hurricane insurance. 107 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: There's a multitude that goes into this picture. Just dissected 108 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 1: for us and tell us what's going on. Sure, so 109 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: standard homeowners insurance will cover hurricane wind and many other perils, 110 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: but it has a specific exclusion for flood. So the 111 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: standard homeowners policy does not cover UH this type of 112 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: event for many of the people, unfortunately UM in and 113 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: around Houston. The good news is that there is a 114 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: national program, National Flood Insurance Program, that allows individuals to 115 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: buy a separate policy through the n f I P 116 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: which is the name for that program, and they can 117 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: have special coverage. I will say that UM auto policies 118 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: do cover flood, so UH that particular peril will would 119 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: be covered UM through your auto policy. But UH in 120 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: the case of home which of course is a significant asset, UH, 121 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: individuals need to go to the NFIP to get coverage. Well, Jonathan, 122 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: do you have any sense of how many people in 123 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: Houston had already gone to the n f I, Pizza 124 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 1: National and Flooded Insurance program UH prior to this storm? 125 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: And if they didn't, what's there what's their recourse? Now? 126 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: That's an excellent question, and unfortunately, UM there's not a 127 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: good figure on individual areas. Although if you analysis was 128 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 1: done after Hurricane Sandy here in the northeast and not surprisingly, 129 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: UM what's called take up rates people who decide to 130 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 1: UH cover themselves with a particular type of protection are 131 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: pretty good close to the coastline. So I would expect 132 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: that individuals close to Galvis, Gavelston, Kelston, Exies, me UM 133 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 1: and Corpus Christi UH, the take up rates would be 134 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: close to close to areas in Houston where flooding has 135 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: been um UH an occasional event. Again pretty good. UH 136 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 1: take up grades outside of that area probably quite low, 137 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: and on average, I believe the number is close to 138 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 1: one in six or about so that is quite low. 139 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: And for those that do not have coverage, really there's 140 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 1: very little option um it. You know that there could 141 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 1: be some federal or state support given, but that type 142 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: of support is not really replacing damaged property. It's more 143 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: along the lines of infestry loans or things of that 144 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: nature that uh, the government tries to put in place 145 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 1: in order to allow individuals to get back on their feet. 146 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 1: But um, if you don't have any coverage, it really 147 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 1: isn't a good picture. I was just reading actually an 148 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: article talking about how after disasters like this, the percent 149 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,559 Speaker 1: of people in poverty typically does increase and stay elevated 150 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: or higher than it was before for a for a 151 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: long period of time. And perhaps this is part of 152 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: the reason why I have people lose a lot of 153 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: the value that they have been storing in the form 154 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: of their homes. What about the national program itself? How 155 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: well funded is that unfortunately not well funded? The billion 156 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,719 Speaker 1: dollars in debt to the U. S. Treasury um, it's 157 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 1: a very unfortunate and simple situation where they don't collect 158 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 1: enough premium for the risk that they are incurring. UM. 159 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: When I say that, that's the the n f I 160 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: P and there are certainly limitations that Congress puts on 161 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: the program so that it's difficult for the administrators to 162 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: put in place a program that is actually sound. That 163 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 1: program is up for renewal as we speak, it expires 164 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: at the end of September and unfortunately for the next 165 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: six years. Based upon the bills that are currently being discussed, 166 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: it's unlikely the program will be able to charge an 167 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: actually actuarily sound rate, and that will ultimately come back 168 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: to haunt us because the taxpayers obviously need to cover 169 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: that in debt to the Treasury at some point. Jonathan, 170 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: And what if you just outline for us quickly in 171 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: looking at the big commercial insurers, the ones that maybe 172 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 1: are used by the energy industry, what effect does have 173 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 1: on them. So the good news of this storm is 174 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: that the very high winds UM dropped very quickly after landfall, 175 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 1: and um my channel checks show that many of the 176 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: refiners and other industrial UM entities in that area suffered 177 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: relatively modest damage. Again that's that's a relative term. But 178 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: UM the likes of travelers, which provides a great deal 179 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: of commercial proper D coverage a I G. CHUB UM 180 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: will probably not incur the same percentage of loss given 181 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: the total loss here as they would have if UM 182 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 1: this was a more traditional wind driven loss event. So 183 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,319 Speaker 1: UM those are the names that are likely UM participating 184 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: in that type of coverage and frankly, there'll be some claims, 185 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: but they won't be too bad for them, Thank you 186 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: very much. Jonathan Adams is our senior insurance industry analyst 187 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. We'll have about a price check in 188 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: Aisle four organic bananas are now sixty nine cents a pound. 189 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 1: That's down from cents. Avocados they used to cost nearly 190 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: three bucks each, They're now a dollar fifty. Yes, this 191 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 1: is what Amazon does the whole foods the Monday after 192 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: its purchase is complete. And here to tell us more 193 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: about this strategy is Scott Mushkin's senior retail staples analysts 194 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 1: for Wolf Research. Scott, great to have you with us. 195 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: Is this just we're gonna get used to the fact 196 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: that Amazon deals with competition by just undercutting everybody else 197 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: on price. I mean, I think that's what we're gonna see. 198 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I was in the store on Sunday at Sarasona, Florida. 199 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: I was back there this morning. Um, the price cuts 200 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 1: are pretty limited right now, but the size of the 201 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,079 Speaker 1: price cuts are pretty significant. So we're finding on average, 202 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 1: the pricing what it's being cut is down about and 203 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: you hit some of the items, the avocados, eggs, milk, butter, 204 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 1: can of all these staple items that Amazon's moved on. 205 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: And as they said, this is just the first time 206 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 1: they're gonna do it. We're we're respecting more from them. 207 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 1: And I think the most significant thing they analysis they're 208 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 1: going to make it part of their Prime program um 209 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: and you'll get discounts if you're a Prime member and 210 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: Whole Foods it's a big deal. It's a game changer. 211 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: So how big would the discounts be and would it 212 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: just be at the physical locations of Whole Foods or 213 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: does this mean that we are soon going to get 214 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:11,959 Speaker 1: some kind of online delivery and distribution mechanism from Amazon. 215 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: I mean, I think we're going through. I think what 216 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 1: you're gonna see is you're gonna integrate. No one knows 217 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: you have by the way, but you know are guessing 218 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: is that they're going to integrate pretty readily the Amazon 219 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: Fresh operations and Whole Foods. Um it's likely to be 220 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 1: pretty powerful as they do that. They already made the 221 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 1: announcement that the Whole Foods private label three sixty five 222 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: is going through going through Amazon. Uh, so you know Amazon, 223 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: it's got sit set on this one point one trillion 224 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: dollar consumables market, and unfortunately, you know, for other competitors 225 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: in the market, if you look at what's going on 226 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: with the consumer, they're really primed pun intended there, but 227 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: primed to move some of their some of their purchasing 228 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: over to Amazon and now Amazon Whole Foods. So, Scott, 229 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: you know, you're talking about how the price cuts are 230 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: fairly limited and are really focused on staples butter milk, eggs, 231 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: avocados for the millennials out there. And I like them too, 232 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: But but I want to ask about that strategy. Is 233 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: that enough to bring people in the door, and does 234 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: it make them more amenable to spending uh more for 235 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 1: the other goods in the store or uh, you know, 236 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: what's the evidence behind this approach? Oh? I mean, I 237 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 1: actually think you're saying something really important. I don't think 238 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: it's enough. Um, they're going to need to do more. 239 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: Uh for instance, in our in our business today, Jason's 240 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: body wash. Uh uh. You can see that at a 241 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 1: GB down in Texas for every day. So they're gonna 242 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: have to do more. They're gonna have to broaden this out. 243 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: They're gonna have to really get rid of that whole 244 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: paycheck uh persona on on whole food So I think 245 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: it's the first step. I think the most interesting thing 246 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: we will see is what they do for the prime 247 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 1: members and what kind of discount you will get at 248 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: being a prime member in shopping at Whole Foods. I 249 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: think that's going to be incredibly powerful when they roll 250 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: that out. Hey, Scott, the competition sprouts Kroger as well 251 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: as Walmart. Can you give us an idea of whether 252 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: there are opportunities to invest in those companies or whether 253 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: you want to stay away, and also what they're doing 254 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: to respond. I think you gotta stay uh the you know, 255 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: if you look at some of the big markets. For instance, 256 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: let's talk about program we can get kind of micro here. 257 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: Kroger owns something called Mariano's in Chicago. The Whole Foods 258 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: is a very large operation in Chicago and hasn't been 259 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: doing very well. Mariano's has priced under Whole Foods in 260 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: the Chicago market. That's going to change. They've also Amazon 261 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: has rolled out their Amazon Fresh operations recently in Chicago. 262 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: As they integrate the Amazon Fresh and the Whole Foods offering, 263 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: very problematic for that Kroger banner there. But if you 264 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: look at all Hold, which is uh, you know, owns 265 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: the stopping shop banner again very large whole foods markets 266 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 1: and markets stead of Amazon US. So for those traditional grossers, 267 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: incredibly problematic. What's going on because they've done well with 268 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: the natural organic, especially Kroger with simple Truth. So really 269 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: stay away from the sector. That's what we've been telling 270 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 1: people now for about the last twelve eighty months. If anything, 271 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: we feel that more strongly about that today than than 272 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: we have. It's really going to stand away from the 273 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: sector until we kind of feel we kind of figure 274 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: out where things are going. You know, one question in 275 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: my mind, Scott, Yeah, the last week we were speaking 276 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 1: with Shara o. V Day, a Bloomberg gad Fly columnists 277 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 1: who is noting that Whole Foods had a bigger profit 278 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 1: margin than Amazon itself at the time of purchase. How 279 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: much can Amazon squeeze that profit margin at Whole Foods 280 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: while still remaining viable and in good shape. I mean, 281 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: I think they can squeeze it as much as they 282 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 1: I mean, we've seen this with Amazon. They'll squeeze it 283 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 1: as much as they can to grab the market share. Uh. So, 284 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 1: I again repeating the idea of the prime. One of 285 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 1: the things I don't think we all considered when Amazon 286 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: did this, how much volume will Amazon be able to 287 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: increase as they make it part of their prime membership. Um, 288 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,239 Speaker 1: that's gonna be very powerful. But the Amazon has been 289 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: shownself to be a company that doesn't necessarily thinking short 290 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 1: term profits. Uh And I don't think they're They're going 291 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: to drop pricing as much as they can, um to 292 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: to drive the traffic into the whole foods and and 293 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: also to drive up the usage of Amazon Fresh. So 294 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: they're playing a long game, and that's what's problematic for 295 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: companies like a Kroger and a novel Scott. Do you 296 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 1: foresee a change in the layout of the whole food 297 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: stores to accommodate things like real time price changes and 298 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: getting rid of the normal you know, stocking the shelves 299 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 1: so that you can see everything is now going to 300 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: be changed to maybe just you know, a few items 301 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 1: or even a few days, and I have it be 302 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: rotated more quickly. I think you'll see that. I also 303 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: think just Amazon lockers show up, and especially in the 304 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: suburban whole food stores, I think you know, obviously Amazon 305 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: has been experimenting with their Amazon Ghost store out in Seattle, 306 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: so I think you'll see Amazon try to bring in 307 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 1: some technology to help the productivity of those stores and 308 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:18,120 Speaker 1: take down the cost. So I think over time you'll 309 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: see Amazon doing a number of things in conjunction with 310 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,199 Speaker 1: Whole Foods UH to be able to again invest in 311 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: price it. It It will invest back into the business, but 312 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 1: to make it more efficient. So over time, I do 313 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: think the stores to getularly, the suburban stores. The Artman 314 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: stores are so busy, but those suburban stores, I think 315 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,120 Speaker 1: you'll see some changes come through. Another change that came 316 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: through today is that Amazon's Echo was on display at 317 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 1: Whole Foods, meaning that they are definitely putting their stamp 318 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: on the store in many different ways. Scott Muschkin, thank 319 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,879 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Scott Mushkin is a 320 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: senior retailed staples analyst at Wolf Research. Um. Definitely a 321 00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,919 Speaker 1: new era for Whole Foods. Pound four galla apples that 322 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: are organic will definitely entice some people to the store. 323 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: All right, let's turn our attention out to a new 324 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: chief executive for Uber and perhaps two hundred rather two 325 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:27,400 Speaker 1: hundred million dollar pay bonus here to tell us more 326 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,120 Speaker 1: is a men Deep sing He is our technology analyst 327 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. Man Deep, always a pleasure, Thanks for 328 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: coming into the studio. Dara kosro Shah, he is tapped 329 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,880 Speaker 1: to be the new chief executive formally of Expedia, formerly 330 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 1: of Barry Diller Allen and Company, Brown University. What can 331 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 1: you tell me about the challenges that Dara faces? So 332 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: clearly he is a very qualified candidate. He has proven 333 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,439 Speaker 1: himself at Expedia, you know, scaled Expedia from a small 334 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: online travelers invendor to the largest O t A vendor 335 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,439 Speaker 1: by bookings. And I think what he'll find is he 336 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: can repeat the same playbook over here, because when you 337 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 1: think about Uber, there's a lot of similarity with online 338 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 1: travel companies. You know, Uber also deals with price conscious customers. 339 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: It has the same kind of network effects as an 340 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: online travel company does. It has to overcome regulatory hurdles, 341 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: which online travel vendors did as well. So there's a 342 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: lot of similarity. And I think I feel personally Uber 343 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: is where O t A vendors like Expedient price Line 344 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: were ten years back, So he can repeat that playbook. 345 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: Where did he come from in the running for the 346 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: new Uber CEO. Because I heard a lot of names 347 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: to be the potential new chief executive here, including Meg Whitman. 348 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: I did not hear his until this weekend. I was 349 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: as surprised as you were, Liza. He definitely was not 350 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 1: in the running, or at least no one heard about 351 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: him up on told Sunday where Meg Whitman. It seems 352 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 1: that the board couldn't agree. So that's the thing about 353 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: Uber is the board is very small and it's divided 354 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: into two parts. One pro UH co founder Travis scan Lake, 355 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,479 Speaker 1: the other one is not supportive of him. And I 356 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,920 Speaker 1: think it came to a point where Dara was the 357 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: least offensive choice, somebody who could pacify, you know, both 358 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 1: the sides. And wow, that's that's the least offensive. I 359 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: don't think of Jeffrey Emmilt and Meg Whitman necessarily as 360 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,880 Speaker 1: being offensive. But whatever it is that that flows your boat. 361 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess that the other question is a 362 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: political question. And uh, you know, we know that that 363 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: Uber has come under fire for some controversial political leanings 364 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: and Dara comes in and has been an outspoken opponent 365 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 1: of President Trump. Does that matter at all to Uber? 366 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 1: I think it does. Because Uber is a global company. 367 00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 1: Think about it. It's operating in you know, worldwide eighty 368 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 1: three countries, and as a global company, you can't be 369 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: very narrow in your views. So the CEO really sets 370 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: the bar. And I think it's a good thing for 371 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: Uber to have such a CEO who's vocal about these 372 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: kind of things. And and really I think, uh, he's 373 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,159 Speaker 1: setting up a good precedent if if he carries on 374 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: that way. One of the issues I believe that Uber 375 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: right now has to do with the lawsuit that has 376 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: been filed by Benchmark about Travis Kalanak having a hand 377 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 1: in appointment of two additional board members. Does this make 378 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: it easier to solve this or I mean, is this 379 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:38,919 Speaker 1: We just gonna have to wait and see what what 380 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: Benchmark thinks of the new CEO. Yeah, we'll have to 381 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: wait and see. The board structure, like I said, is 382 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: very complex, but based on how he has run Expedia, 383 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: my gut feeling is he's going to diversify the board. 384 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: He's going to add people who have experienced running billion 385 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 1: dollar plus companies. This board is very new right now. 386 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: Five appointees are new. You know, they've been at Uber 387 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,199 Speaker 1: for less than one year, So he may want to 388 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 1: add people who have that experience running a multinational, multibillion 389 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,640 Speaker 1: dollar company. And and I think he also needs a CFO. Right, 390 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: that's the other vacuum that is there in the company. 391 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 1: There's no CEO, there is no CFO. So maybe one 392 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 1: of those two guys could be on the board as well. Um. 393 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 1: The price tag for this new chief executive officer is 394 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: quite large, right. Um. Again, it's a tough question because 395 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,719 Speaker 1: obviously he had a lot of options, uh in Expedia, 396 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 1: So of to get a guy like that who has 397 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,719 Speaker 1: been running the company successfully for twelve years, yes, you've 398 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 1: got to pay up, but that's not a problem for Uber. 399 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,880 Speaker 1: Uber has all that you know, cash and and they 400 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,919 Speaker 1: can attract any candidates, So it's really about getting the 401 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: right one. So two million dollars, which is the currently 402 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,120 Speaker 1: reported fee that they'll have to pay their new chief 403 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 1: executive to leave Expedias, that's drop in the bucket for them. 404 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 1: I mean it's not a drop, but they can you know, 405 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: invest those options, they can create a package for him 406 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 1: that kind of vessel over time, and I mean in 407 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: the grand scheme of things, it's not really a big deal. 408 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, and just taking a look 409 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 1: at the Bloomberg at the at the total compensation cash, 410 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 1: non cash, and so on, thirty one point six million 411 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 1: dollars for a cost row shot EXPETI. Thanks for listening 412 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe 413 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever 414 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter 415 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's 416 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 1: one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide 417 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio