WEBVTT - Tech, Jobs, Ukraine, and WWE (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla. Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast Paul Sweeney. Alongside

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<v Speaker 1>every business day we bring you interviews from CEO, market

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<v Speaker 1>crows and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news

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<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to podcasting studios. Senior analyst to Wedboach Security

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<v Speaker 1>sporting his Rose Bowl hat hence state big win. We'll

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<v Speaker 1>get to that. I thought they played very well. Good

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<v Speaker 1>goodwin there. Man Deep Singh also joining us in studio here. Um, Dan,

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<v Speaker 1>I know you've been dealing with this issue for all

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<v Speaker 1>the year. Um what do you say to clients? Because

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<v Speaker 1>I know as an equity research analyst, your job over

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<v Speaker 1>the years has been kind of in part, educate your

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<v Speaker 1>clients on the EV market, on the opportunities, on the

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<v Speaker 1>investment opportunities, and the test of story had worked for

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<v Speaker 1>shareholders and your clients so well, and then a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of things have turned here into the last twelve months. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it's been a perfect storm. I mean the

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<v Speaker 1>first part was the most Twitter circuits were driven, but

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<v Speaker 1>this last part has been demand words and you look,

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<v Speaker 1>China's the hearts and loans of the Tesla story. Competition

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<v Speaker 1>clearly increasing within the country. Domestically, you're seeing price cuts

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<v Speaker 1>and some cracks in the armor. And I think right

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<v Speaker 1>now the big worry is you saw the price cut today,

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<v Speaker 1>what does that mean for demand? And especially what does

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<v Speaker 1>that mean for margins. Look, my view is that they've

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<v Speaker 1>actually have now the scale to expand margins, so they

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<v Speaker 1>have flexibility. They could cut prices even another four to

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<v Speaker 1>five percent and margins still, you know, I believe could

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<v Speaker 1>stay relatively range bound. But it's it's all about the

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<v Speaker 1>fear of the unknown. You obviously have a key earnings,

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<v Speaker 1>the key guidance coming around the corner January, and Musk

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<v Speaker 1>is the one that started the five alarm fire. He

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<v Speaker 1>is the only one that could extinguish it. Man deep uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that what caught me off guard was the

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<v Speaker 1>huge delta between what apparently Chinese consumers pay for a

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla and what I would pay if I bought one.

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<v Speaker 1>Here are are these apples to apples? Because that would

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<v Speaker 1>make me very, very very angry if I were a

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<v Speaker 1>US consumer knowing that my Chinese counterparts are paying less

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<v Speaker 1>for the same product. Well, so one is a cost

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<v Speaker 1>of manufacturing will differ and because we are talking about

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<v Speaker 1>geo political landscape where you know, people want to move

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<v Speaker 1>their supply chains here. You will have a cost differential

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<v Speaker 1>more and more so this trend is not going away.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're moving things on shore, you will have higher

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<v Speaker 1>costs and then that's so cheaper price tag. That's for

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<v Speaker 1>a made in China test versus a maiden. It's all

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<v Speaker 1>about localized manufactur for got it. So, I mean Dave

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<v Speaker 1>Dan was talking about, you know, some of the challenges

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<v Speaker 1>they're just a test of fundamentally, but he also mentioned

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<v Speaker 1>that one of the big challenges for the stock has

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<v Speaker 1>just been Elon and Twitter. What are you hearing from?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know the digital advertising community as it relates to,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, really the future of Twitter. Has he paid

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<v Speaker 1>forty four billion dollars for something that may be worth less?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, look at Fidelity, they marked down Twitter's steak

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<v Speaker 1>by almost fifty So according to them, Twitter should be

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<v Speaker 1>valued at billion. Then forty four billion you'ren't paid for.

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<v Speaker 1>So clearly, when you when you're private investors and they're

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<v Speaker 1>like four or five of them, they're marking down the investment,

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<v Speaker 1>it tells you something. And look, the ad market isn't

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<v Speaker 1>gonna get better anytime soon. And Twitter's positioning, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it was all brand advertising and that's the one that

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<v Speaker 1>got hit the most in this downturn. So clearly I

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<v Speaker 1>don't see a way back, you know, anytime soon. This

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<v Speaker 1>year is going to be awful for most of the

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<v Speaker 1>digital ad companies, more so for the ones exposed to

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<v Speaker 1>brand advertising, which is Twitter. So Dan, if if brands

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<v Speaker 1>want to get away from the Elon Musk brand, because

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<v Speaker 1>that's what it is, right, Um, do consumers want to

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<v Speaker 1>get away from the Elon Musk brand because I can't

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<v Speaker 1>imagine uh, you know, left leaning, progressive, middle class UM

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<v Speaker 1>couple wanting to buy a Tesla these days. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think brand deteration has been issue. We've talked about two

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<v Speaker 1>black eye from Musk, it's a black eye for Tesla.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think that this can be course corrected. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at the broader e V market, it's

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<v Speaker 1>still Tesla's world. Everyone else paying rent relative to market share.

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<v Speaker 1>Now competitions increasing. You look into three one three area code,

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<v Speaker 1>GM four and others, and I believe GM can be

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<v Speaker 1>very successful on evs. It's a fork in the road.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a moment of truth from musk and it all

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<v Speaker 1>starts gen you guys set realistic expectations to hit not

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<v Speaker 1>lofty ones. Guy named the CEO to Twitter to start

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<v Speaker 1>to get some sort of hands off here, and then

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<v Speaker 1>I believe the stock starts to correct itself. But right

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<v Speaker 1>now it's it's obviously earnings date for Tesla. Why by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, stepping back and looking at this over the

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<v Speaker 1>last ten, twelve, thirteen years, why has it taken and

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<v Speaker 1>come and automakers so long to get into this business

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<v Speaker 1>that was clearly going to grow like gangbusters. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>now you see GM and Ford getting into it, Folkswagen

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<v Speaker 1>obviously going full tilt, but over a decade later and

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<v Speaker 1>they're still you know, we had a great story about Toyota.

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<v Speaker 1>They pioneered the space in a sense with the with

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<v Speaker 1>the what's that little thing called? And and they still

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<v Speaker 1>gave up on this market. You know, Nissan had the

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<v Speaker 1>Leaf forever ago and they still haven't invested in what

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<v Speaker 1>they need to in this market. How come is it?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it a conspiracy with the oil producers or what's

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<v Speaker 1>the deal? It's historic as in, like they'll study this

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<v Speaker 1>from decades and decades. It's a historic miss for the

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<v Speaker 1>traditional automakers, and ultimately Musk, you know, from an innovation perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>was really the one that drove Tessa to basically think

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<v Speaker 1>the box and create something that other automakers almost laughed

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<v Speaker 1>at the time. Now, obviously they're following where Tesla is

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<v Speaker 1>and then it comes down to like us two and

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<v Speaker 1>a half percent autos were reviews. So we're still in

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<v Speaker 1>the early days. But ultimately Musk has done what new

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<v Speaker 1>competitor can do. He's created this sort of feel like

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<v Speaker 1>there's got to be some conspiracy. I feel like there

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<v Speaker 1>has to be CEOs were I'm dead with Big Oil

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<v Speaker 1>because at the I p O, at the test I

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<v Speaker 1>p O, we all said, oh no, when the competition

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<v Speaker 1>comes in, they're screwed. And it's been over a decade. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll give him over a decade head start. No one

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<v Speaker 1>says that. In the business answer per Kevin Tyne and

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<v Speaker 1>the auto analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, he says that GM

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<v Speaker 1>four they're not in the car business. They're in the

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<v Speaker 1>profitable car business. When they can make a profit on

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<v Speaker 1>a car I either demanded at a certain level and

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<v Speaker 1>the costs at a certain level, that's when they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to get into the market. Elon Musk was a visionary

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<v Speaker 1>for the technology, but he can't make a lot of cars,

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<v Speaker 1>and so now you've got FOURD and GM's and Volkswagen

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<v Speaker 1>your car company. They're like, okay, now I can make

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<v Speaker 1>it profitable, and I can, and we're gonna be all

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<v Speaker 1>in the battery technology got to that point where that

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<v Speaker 1>goes to my question to Dan, like, from a Tesla perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>you got Volkswagen coming in at Jim, where is Tesla's

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<v Speaker 1>I guess niche in the market? Where's the position in

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<v Speaker 1>the market. Yes, they were the first, but now if

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<v Speaker 1>I've got a Porsche, I've got a Mercedes, if I've

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<v Speaker 1>got a four I don't know. Well that's well, that's

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<v Speaker 1>right now the quagmire because you start to go back

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<v Speaker 1>to you got to get a sub thirty k vehicle

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<v Speaker 1>in terms out there to compete. Right from a massive perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>they obviously reviewed as the brand leader, the premium one,

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<v Speaker 1>but now competition come from all angles. And that's why

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand twenty three it is a huge inflection point

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<v Speaker 1>year for them. How they navigate it. And you're saying,

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<v Speaker 1>it's like Man's talking about as you see a reflecting

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<v Speaker 1>the stock. This is really for the first time after

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<v Speaker 1>Cinderella Ride, they got their back against the wall. Can

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<v Speaker 1>I add just one more thing? So Tesla was valued

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<v Speaker 1>as a tech company last year. Now it's being valued

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<v Speaker 1>as an auto company. Suddenly the tech premiums being valued

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<v Speaker 1>as three or four were auto companies, right, because it

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<v Speaker 1>still has a bigger market GM plus Ford plus Toyota,

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<v Speaker 1>which is by the way, the biggest automaker in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's still towers over the biggest automaker in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason it was valued as a tech companies

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<v Speaker 1>because they have their autonomous driving you know inside. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean basically, they were capturing a lot of data, they

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<v Speaker 1>were making a lot of progress. Suddenly no one seems

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<v Speaker 1>to care about it, and obviously the focus seems to

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<v Speaker 1>have shifted to Twitter when it comes to Musk and

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<v Speaker 1>it's no more you know, a tech company, even though

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<v Speaker 1>I would argue and I agree with Damn that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla's miles ahead of GM and Wolkswagen and all the

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<v Speaker 1>competitors when it comes to the data and the autonomous

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<v Speaker 1>side of things because they have built this system. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a full stack similar to Apple it's an ecosystem, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's an advantage that's not going of anything. Dan, Do

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<v Speaker 1>you really think we're gonna see legit competition this year? Man?

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<v Speaker 1>I know there's a Porsche Ticon if I want to

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<v Speaker 1>spend two hundred grand I know there's a Ford Lightning

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<v Speaker 1>if I want to wait two years on a on

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<v Speaker 1>a way list. Um. But you know, it just seems

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<v Speaker 1>like either I'm getting a bolt right, or I'm on

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<v Speaker 1>a waiting list, or I'm spending like my kids college tuition. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the real competitions in China right now. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that's where where Neo x ping b y, That's

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<v Speaker 1>where the real competition in the US look. I think

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<v Speaker 1>you obviously have a lot of automakers going to have

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<v Speaker 1>that GM. I do believe it's the real deal. I

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<v Speaker 1>believe that they have a number of vehicles from Cadoact

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<v Speaker 1>that you know some of the other driven in. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not they've done where where marian Tea have done. Is

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<v Speaker 1>is really game changing. But ultimately it's Tesla's market to lose.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's why right now Musk he needs to be

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<v Speaker 1>the pilot on the plane. Can't have a ted Striker

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<v Speaker 1>movement that's for the kids. That's an airplane recerplane reference.

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<v Speaker 1>Go google it. So, Dann, do we have any sense

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<v Speaker 1>that he's gotten that message that it's going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>I haven't really heard a lot a lot from him. Reason.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's in ten. I think for the first

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<v Speaker 1>time he's I think behind the scenes, he's trying to

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<v Speaker 1>strategize reading the room, and I think he recognizes Look

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<v Speaker 1>has been deep talks about Twitter. It's not just the

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<v Speaker 1>forty four billion dollar mistake. I'd argue it's a seven

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollar mistake because of the mark Ap ultimately taking

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<v Speaker 1>off of Tesla. That's really taken. So that's why this is.

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<v Speaker 1>This is just the pivotal earnings, probably the most important

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<v Speaker 1>earnings for Musk maybe. Ever, Man, do you do you

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<v Speaker 1>expect serious competition for Tesla in the West? I mean

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<v Speaker 1>I saw a story that Mercedes is going to lead

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<v Speaker 1>the charge with a new UM you know, like a

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<v Speaker 1>supercharger network. But Tesla has had it for a decade,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think a lot of consumers that's one of

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<v Speaker 1>their main concerns. There's just you don't want to get

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<v Speaker 1>stuck UM and it's so hard to find a charging

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<v Speaker 1>station I mean, anytime you're selling a sixty thousand dollar vehicle,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to think what is the potential in the

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<v Speaker 1>average EV starts at sixty dollars and so what is

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<v Speaker 1>the potential installed bates? How many cars can you sell

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<v Speaker 1>at that price point? And I think that's where the

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<v Speaker 1>market will get saturated unless you bring down the price.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's where I see competition, good stuff. Tesla January, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the line. That's the date. Will focus on Mandy

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<v Speaker 1>seeing senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and Dan I've

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<v Speaker 1>senior equity Annalyso what Bush Securities? Both joining us here

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<v Speaker 1>in our Bloomberg interactor Brooker Studio breaking down the story

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<v Speaker 1>that is Tesla. That is Elon musk Uh stock down

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<v Speaker 1>seven zero over the prior twelve months, so a tough

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<v Speaker 1>another three percent today, another three percent, a tough ride

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<v Speaker 1>for the shareholders of Tesla. Matt, you know it's c

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<v Speaker 1>e S this week Consumer Electronic Show, but let's be honest,

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<v Speaker 1>it's really the auto show with some gadgets around it. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Lots of announcements coming out of Vegas here and CS

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<v Speaker 1>including Mercedes Benz partnering partnering with Charge point in North

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<v Speaker 1>America for charging network. And this goes to one of

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<v Speaker 1>the issues I have as I trying to get smart

0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:03.480
<v Speaker 1>on this whole e V businesses. Do we need it

0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:06.320
<v Speaker 1>like as many charging stations as we have gas stations today?

0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how that plays out, but unfortunately we

0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.480
<v Speaker 1>got someone who's really in charge of the stuff right

0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:12.840
<v Speaker 1>on the point of a Pasquality romano. He's a CEO

0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.480
<v Speaker 1>and president of charge Point, in charge point of Courses

0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:19.120
<v Speaker 1>and your stock Exchange listed company c HPT as a

0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:22.160
<v Speaker 1>taker you can load into your Bloomberg terminal. Pasquality. Thanks

0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:23.760
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us here. Tell us about you

0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:31.080
<v Speaker 1>deal with Mercedes Benz. Well, it's a it's a I

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:37.720
<v Speaker 1>think government for drivers everywhere in the United States and Canada. Um,

0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 1>what we're doing with them is effectively curating a network

0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:46.600
<v Speaker 1>aligned with the thirty minute retail economy. Um. We really

0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:50.640
<v Speaker 1>believe the drivers need uh, not only charging when they

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 1>were on a road trip, but they need something to do.

0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 1>They needed safety, they need um um, they need you know,

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:00.560
<v Speaker 1>the the usual locoutrements that you would act when you're

0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.839
<v Speaker 1>on a road trip. And uh, you know, we're very

0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:07.840
<v Speaker 1>excited that premium brand like Mercedes poses um really dove

0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:10.440
<v Speaker 1>into this and willing to partner with us to really

0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.959
<v Speaker 1>curate a great experience for the drivers. So I see

0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:17.120
<v Speaker 1>um a graphic rendering of a Mercedes Benz charging hub

0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:21.800
<v Speaker 1>in Bloomberg Story which looks um, you know, elegant, But

0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 1>I can't see the retail um, you know, extravaganza that

0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:30.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm hoping for as a as a died in the

0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:33.400
<v Speaker 1>wool consumer. What should I be looking for at a

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:40.040
<v Speaker 1>at a charge point experience? Well, I think, uh well,

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:45.000
<v Speaker 1>what stuff can I get? Look for is what they want? Well,

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.360
<v Speaker 1>it's what they it's it's what drivers really want to do.

0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 1>So we're going to align this with brands that exist.

0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:55.760
<v Speaker 1>Uh so, So imagine locating the types of chargers that

0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 1>you see on the graphic, aligning those with good brands

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:02.199
<v Speaker 1>that people want to use when they are on a

0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:04.840
<v Speaker 1>road trip. So this is not about Mercedes Benz developing

0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.200
<v Speaker 1>their own food service brands, of their own retail brands.

0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:11.680
<v Speaker 1>It is them sponsoring the placement of stations like that

0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:19.240
<v Speaker 1>at locations that drivers already enjoy frequenting. So like the shop,

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:23.960
<v Speaker 1>right are we talking about here? Kind Yeah? Well, well

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 1>I think I think there's some place for communions stores.

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:32.760
<v Speaker 1>But I think uh, you know, uh everything from food,

0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:37.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, food services to coffee to potentially retail. It's

0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.120
<v Speaker 1>aligned with something that you can do over about thirty minutes,

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 1>thirty minutes. It's it's it's again, anything that that twenty

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.800
<v Speaker 1>thirty minute retail economy um uh you know can can

0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 1>afford you on a and something that's aligned with what

0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:52.000
<v Speaker 1>you want to do on a road trip is where

0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 1>we where we're going to place these things. It's gotta

0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.160
<v Speaker 1>be like an Apple store. That's must be the number

0:14:56.200 --> 0:15:00.920
<v Speaker 1>one umer destination, right for a thirty minute stop? Yeah,

0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't. I you know, I think I

0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 1>think we already have too many gadgets, But that would

0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 1>be a good one. Pasquald helped me understand because I've

0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.040
<v Speaker 1>driven exactly one e V in my life and it

0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 1>was a good one for def um, it was awesome.

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>But how should I think about the rollout of a

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:21.320
<v Speaker 1>network of charging system stations around this country? Just help

0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:24.200
<v Speaker 1>me put into perspectives. You know, I think about gas

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:26.160
<v Speaker 1>stations one on every corner, that kind of thing. How

0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:30.640
<v Speaker 1>do I How should I think about the charging system infrastructure? Yeah?

0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:32.320
<v Speaker 1>So charging is a lot. Driving any of the is

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot different than driving a gas car, and if

0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:37.560
<v Speaker 1>you pattern match on gas stations, I think you get

0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:42.080
<v Speaker 1>head fake to bit um. The the the charging experience

0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 1>for for most of your fuel, most of your electricity

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:47.800
<v Speaker 1>that's going to take you around where you need to go,

0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 1>is going to come in at home, at work, around town.

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna top it up, kind of like your piece

0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:55.160
<v Speaker 1>of consumer electronics. It's fitting that it was announced to

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.720
<v Speaker 1>see yes because cars are behaving from refueling perspective more

0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:02.440
<v Speaker 1>like your cell phone than they are the gasoline cars

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 1>of old. Now for gas stations, the ones that are

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:11.360
<v Speaker 1>placed around uh, you know that everyday use for your

0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:13.760
<v Speaker 1>everyday fuel, those really don't have that much reason to

0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:16.080
<v Speaker 1>exist in the long term. In the e V world.

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 1>It's the ones that are road trip position you know,

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:24.000
<v Speaker 1>in positions between metro areas that you're typically going to

0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 1>drive on a road trip when you're going beyond your

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.360
<v Speaker 1>battery range. Those are the ones that are likely to

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 1>develop into EV charging sites. With the proviso that there's

0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.680
<v Speaker 1>enough parking, there has to be enough parking. It takes

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:39.760
<v Speaker 1>four to six times the number of parking spaces because

0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:41.840
<v Speaker 1>you're there longer than you would be at a gas station,

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:44.280
<v Speaker 1>so you need the real estate. So it's really a

0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:47.400
<v Speaker 1>combination of the gas station locations that are the fueling

0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:52.280
<v Speaker 1>locations that are road trip position, and enough parking. Alright,

0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:56.240
<v Speaker 1>So bottom line, you want to build or Mercedes wants

0:16:56.240 --> 0:17:00.520
<v Speaker 1>to build ten ultra fast chargers, how many is that

0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:04.760
<v Speaker 1>um equate to in the US? And when are you

0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.920
<v Speaker 1>When are we going to see like enough that Paul

0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:11.679
<v Speaker 1>feels comfortable, you know, buying an e q V or

0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:15.040
<v Speaker 1>whatever they're called. Well, I mean you can, first of all,

0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:18.080
<v Speaker 1>you can, Uh, we've already got a partnership with Mercedes

0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:21.600
<v Speaker 1>Benz where we're powering the in dash navigation and the

0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:26.520
<v Speaker 1>Mercedes ME charging experience. So you already have access globally

0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:30.280
<v Speaker 1>through Mercedes Benz to about a million charging stations around

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:34.639
<v Speaker 1>the world. Um and and and so there's there's a

0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:38.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of charging that's already out there. This overlay network

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:44.440
<v Speaker 1>is essentially a highly curated Mercedes Benz kind of certified experience,

0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:48.240
<v Speaker 1>and uh, you know there's there's there's going to be

0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:53.159
<v Speaker 1>at least twenty four hundred stations. That means ports parking

0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:59.359
<v Speaker 1>spaces at at least four hundred plus sites across the

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:04.119
<v Speaker 1>United States to enable this right for long haul driving,

0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:06.720
<v Speaker 1>and that's at least. We're going to try to leverage

0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:11.960
<v Speaker 1>other funding from some of the federal and state programs

0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:15.080
<v Speaker 1>that you see that have already launched, and we're trying

0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:18.359
<v Speaker 1>to get businesses, frankly to also subsidize this as well

0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:23.200
<v Speaker 1>and and potentially contribute some funding to stretch the sites

0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.040
<v Speaker 1>even further so we can potentially even go beyond four

0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 1>hundred sites. Pass quality give us a sense of where

0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:34.560
<v Speaker 1>we are with the evolution of charging batteries. Are we

0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:36.280
<v Speaker 1>are where we're gonna be for a while or is

0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 1>there a continuous evolution uh improvement here? Well, the chargers

0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:47.440
<v Speaker 1>themselves are capable of delivering more than today's batteries can take.

0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:49.920
<v Speaker 1>So if you've driven in an electric vehicle, which you'll

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 1>notice is that they start out charging um at a

0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:57.800
<v Speaker 1>at a fairly high rate if the charger can provide

0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:01.480
<v Speaker 1>the energy, and then the charge rate uh drops over

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:04.800
<v Speaker 1>as the battery gets um more full, the charge rate

0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:10.520
<v Speaker 1>begins to drop, and you're gonna see that behavior um extent.

0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:14.280
<v Speaker 1>So you're gonna see batteries as as battery technology matures,

0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:19.199
<v Speaker 1>and as battery management matures, you're gonna see batteries be

0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:22.640
<v Speaker 1>able to take that higher charge rate for longer periods

0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:24.560
<v Speaker 1>of time, and that will start to really shorten the

0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:29.040
<v Speaker 1>charge cycle. We think that you know technology uh you

0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:32.359
<v Speaker 1>know that's available today that will start showing up in

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 1>in vehicles will get you from a ten percent battery

0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.520
<v Speaker 1>level to an eight percent battery level in about eighteen minutes. Okay,

0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:43.280
<v Speaker 1>that's interesting, all right, pascually great stuff, great announcement with

0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:47.040
<v Speaker 1>the Mercedes Benz there Pasquality Romano CEO and president of

0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:50.119
<v Speaker 1>charge Point HPT. Is a ticket to put into your

0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:53.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg professional terminal. Uh. You know, it's just gonna be

0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:55.760
<v Speaker 1>a I guess not a slow build of building out

0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:58.440
<v Speaker 1>this network of charging stations and uh, but it's something

0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:00.720
<v Speaker 1>that I think, you know, it has to happened. Will happen.

0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:05.439
<v Speaker 1>Is the latest on what's going on in work in

0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 1>the Ukraine. I guess some of the latest news is

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:11.399
<v Speaker 1>that Putin calls a surprise thirty six hour Ukraine ceasefire.

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:13.520
<v Speaker 1>But no one buys that. Nobody buys that. And you know,

0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 1>but that's supposedly today and tomorrow, so we'll have to

0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:17.639
<v Speaker 1>see how that plays out. But let's get the latest

0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:19.360
<v Speaker 1>on what's going on over there and how this may

0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:22.560
<v Speaker 1>play out. Mick mulroy, co founder of the Lobo Institute.

0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:25.200
<v Speaker 1>But that's just the beginning. Senior fellow at the Middle

0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:29.960
<v Speaker 1>East Institute, Marine Officer CIA all this kind of craziness,

0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:33.480
<v Speaker 1>but he joins this year, Hey, Mick, what do you

0:20:33.560 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 1>make of this? Uh? This putin call for a ceasefire. Again,

0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:41.920
<v Speaker 1>as Matt was suggesting, not many people are buying it. Yeah,

0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:43.640
<v Speaker 1>so great to be with you, guys. I am one

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:46.560
<v Speaker 1>of those people that doesn't buy it. Essentially, I think

0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:49.560
<v Speaker 1>what they were trying to do was to have a

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:52.840
<v Speaker 1>ceasefar of which the Ukrainians would I would agree to

0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:55.920
<v Speaker 1>what they didn't, so that they could then resupply their

0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:58.040
<v Speaker 1>troops in the front line, which they're having a very

0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:01.480
<v Speaker 1>difficult time doing. So that was essentially, in my opinion,

0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:04.159
<v Speaker 1>why they were doing it. It was never agreed to,

0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:07.920
<v Speaker 1>so it essentially wasn't a ceasefire, and Russia has been

0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:11.760
<v Speaker 1>engaging on the battlefield just like Ukrainians, so it is

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.960
<v Speaker 1>essentially a no go. Does anybody bias cease fires? I

0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:18.959
<v Speaker 1>mean since the Ted offensive is it? Uh? Just something

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:24.720
<v Speaker 1>that no one really does anymore. So it's increasingly difficult,

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.960
<v Speaker 1>partly because nobody's rest our Russian I mean, they violate,

0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>They make an agreement and one day and violated the next.

0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:35.520
<v Speaker 1>It's not just in Ukraine, you see that another areas

0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:38.439
<v Speaker 1>of the world. If you might remember all the issues

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:40.680
<v Speaker 1>when it came to get grain out of the port

0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 1>of Odessa, uh, and they just continuously made an agreement

0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:48.040
<v Speaker 1>and then broke it. So it's that does not bode

0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:50.240
<v Speaker 1>well for how this could end. If there's any kind

0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:53.760
<v Speaker 1>of peace agreement, I think the Ukrainians will be very

0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:58.720
<v Speaker 1>skeptical that any of their efforts would actually amount to anything.

0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:01.440
<v Speaker 1>What are the likely scenarior areas for how this ends? Mick?

0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:05.800
<v Speaker 1>What do you think the options are? So from the

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:11.679
<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian perspective, they have to essentially keep winning. And what

0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:14.879
<v Speaker 1>I mean is the Russians only stand might uh. And

0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:18.959
<v Speaker 1>let's just be specific to President Putin, he only understands might.

0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:22.760
<v Speaker 1>So they have to hit the spring after hopefully getting

0:22:22.760 --> 0:22:24.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the equipment that we'll get over there

0:22:24.600 --> 0:22:27.720
<v Speaker 1>and they'll be trained on hard and just start pushing

0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the Russians out of the territory that they occupied. They've

0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:35.200
<v Speaker 1>already came about the territory since February, since the Russians

0:22:35.200 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 1>took their too back. So if the Russians realized that

0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:41.640
<v Speaker 1>just they're just gonna lose, uh, that is potentially how

0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:45.480
<v Speaker 1>they could come to the negotiation table. It's gonna be

0:22:45.640 --> 0:22:50.240
<v Speaker 1>through force, quite preply, you know, Mick. We we heard

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:53.880
<v Speaker 1>recently from Adamal James Travitis that, you know, the Ukrainians

0:22:53.880 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 1>have proven that they can in fact win and be

0:22:56.040 --> 0:22:58.919
<v Speaker 1>successful on the ground, but now somehow they have to

0:22:58.960 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 1>win the air um. How do you think they do that?

0:23:05.160 --> 0:23:08.399
<v Speaker 1>So one way is to get this integrated air missile

0:23:08.480 --> 0:23:12.400
<v Speaker 1>defense system. And what I mean by that integrated it's

0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:13.879
<v Speaker 1>you know what, it could be a drone that shot

0:23:13.880 --> 0:23:16.919
<v Speaker 1>at your cruise. Missis a little hypersonic missile. They have

0:23:17.000 --> 0:23:19.320
<v Speaker 1>to have all the systems that can identify the threat

0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:23.440
<v Speaker 1>and engages in the best possible manner. So Patriot is

0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:25.120
<v Speaker 1>going to be a big part of that. That's really

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:27.800
<v Speaker 1>one of the best systems on Earth. Takes a little

0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:29.479
<v Speaker 1>while to trade on it, but once they get that,

0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:32.399
<v Speaker 1>you get multiple batteries. It will help them can test

0:23:32.440 --> 0:23:34.960
<v Speaker 1>the air space. The other thing they gotta do is

0:23:35.040 --> 0:23:38.800
<v Speaker 1>the drones that are coming from Roan they're about twenty dollars,

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:40.399
<v Speaker 1>but right now the only thing they have to shoot

0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:43.000
<v Speaker 1>it down is around five hundred thousand dollars. So even

0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:47.159
<v Speaker 1>if they're successfully shooting these things down, eventually they just

0:23:47.240 --> 0:23:50.159
<v Speaker 1>keep launching sheat and you're in. You deplete your resources.

0:23:50.200 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 1>So that integration of air defense I think is going

0:23:52.880 --> 0:23:57.640
<v Speaker 1>to be key. So so um, in that case, Um,

0:23:57.720 --> 0:23:59.439
<v Speaker 1>it seems like this is just going to drag on

0:23:59.520 --> 0:24:03.520
<v Speaker 1>and on because you know, we've seen conflicts like this.

0:24:04.080 --> 0:24:06.920
<v Speaker 1>The US was involved in one ourselves in the sixties

0:24:06.920 --> 0:24:10.240
<v Speaker 1>and seventies, right that, you know, where the big power

0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:13.520
<v Speaker 1>doesn't get the message until it's been a decade. Is

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:18.399
<v Speaker 1>that what what we're looking at here? Possibly? Unfortunately, it

0:24:18.520 --> 0:24:21.399
<v Speaker 1>is possible, like at least in our case, we were democracy,

0:24:21.480 --> 0:24:24.480
<v Speaker 1>so the people will have to say, um, they're not.

0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:27.560
<v Speaker 1>They're an autocracy and they and it's really up to

0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:29.800
<v Speaker 1>one man unless they depose him. Let's they kick him out,

0:24:29.840 --> 0:24:32.480
<v Speaker 1>which is I mean, I don't want to hope for that.

0:24:32.520 --> 0:24:34.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean, but you know, that would be the best

0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:37.479
<v Speaker 1>case scenario in my opinion, But there was I mean,

0:24:37.520 --> 0:24:39.679
<v Speaker 1>he spent a lot of time ensuring that doesn't happen.

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:43.439
<v Speaker 1>So because of the that situation, this could last for

0:24:43.520 --> 0:24:46.399
<v Speaker 1>decades and it's going to be very difficult to keep

0:24:46.440 --> 0:24:48.560
<v Speaker 1>all the allies together. But it's the right thing to do,

0:24:48.640 --> 0:24:52.720
<v Speaker 1>not only like morally, but for NATO, for the United

0:24:52.720 --> 0:24:55.639
<v Speaker 1>States national security interest to support Ukraine to the end.

0:24:55.760 --> 0:24:57.840
<v Speaker 1>Exactly what I was just thinking, Mick. I mean, as

0:24:57.880 --> 0:25:02.520
<v Speaker 1>we watched this new Congress struggle to even pick a speaker,

0:25:04.040 --> 0:25:08.240
<v Speaker 1>what's the possibility that they wimp out in terms of

0:25:08.440 --> 0:25:14.480
<v Speaker 1>support for Ukraine pretty quickly? So I I, you know,

0:25:14.520 --> 0:25:16.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm not on the political side of this, but I

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:20.320
<v Speaker 1>think from what I've seen that they will continue to

0:25:20.359 --> 0:25:24.840
<v Speaker 1>have support. There's a small handful that whatever reason, I

0:25:24.840 --> 0:25:26.920
<v Speaker 1>would like to see that cut. But what I would

0:25:26.960 --> 0:25:30.480
<v Speaker 1>tell them is we spent about the equivalent about five

0:25:30.520 --> 0:25:34.479
<v Speaker 1>percent of our national security budget on Ukraine, and they've

0:25:34.640 --> 0:25:40.159
<v Speaker 1>depleted or destroyed of Russian combat power. So even if

0:25:40.200 --> 0:25:42.520
<v Speaker 1>you're looking at it from the U s. National security

0:25:42.560 --> 0:25:45.920
<v Speaker 1>interest alone, that's a pretty good ratio. It's a really

0:25:45.920 --> 0:25:49.840
<v Speaker 1>good ratio. Right, So, um, it's it isn't charity. Just

0:25:49.920 --> 0:25:52.399
<v Speaker 1>like President Zelinsky said when he came to visit us.

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:55.760
<v Speaker 1>It isn't charity. We are actually they are taking on

0:25:55.960 --> 0:26:01.160
<v Speaker 1>our second most significant adversary and they're winning. Mick, second

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:05.560
<v Speaker 1>most significant adversary yep, after the Chinese. I guess, so, Mick,

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:07.760
<v Speaker 1>talk to us about you know, as we think about

0:26:07.760 --> 0:26:11.680
<v Speaker 1>the spring fighting season, there's an announcement that Germany and

0:26:11.680 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 1>the US are sending you know, Bradley vehicles and the

0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:17.320
<v Speaker 1>comparable German vehicle um and that how that will have

0:26:17.359 --> 0:26:20.720
<v Speaker 1>a significant impact. Is there a scenario where when spring

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:24.280
<v Speaker 1>rolls around that this Ukrainian military will be able to

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 1>have pushed for the remaining of territory that they lost.

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:33.040
<v Speaker 1>Can they have that type of rapid success? I think

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:36.880
<v Speaker 1>it's possible, And certainly they've already shown that they're capable

0:26:37.000 --> 0:26:42.200
<v Speaker 1>soldiers and officers in in in maneuver warfare quite brightly,

0:26:42.280 --> 0:26:45.320
<v Speaker 1>the most modern version of warfare. We're getting them the

0:26:45.359 --> 0:26:47.399
<v Speaker 1>things that they like. For example, you just brought up

0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:51.800
<v Speaker 1>the Bradley. It is not as effective as a tank,

0:26:52.640 --> 0:26:54.960
<v Speaker 1>but it can kill tags, and it's faster and have

0:26:55.080 --> 0:26:58.760
<v Speaker 1>longer range, and it will be a significant factor when

0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:01.320
<v Speaker 1>it comes to their ability to who troops around the battlefield.

0:27:01.440 --> 0:27:04.400
<v Speaker 1>To envelop the Russian forces and to not get basically

0:27:04.440 --> 0:27:07.120
<v Speaker 1>caught a corner by the Russian forces. You've got our

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:09.199
<v Speaker 1>US setting them, We've got the French setting them, and

0:27:09.240 --> 0:27:12.439
<v Speaker 1>the Germans. And I think if once that's done and

0:27:12.480 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 1>they show how effectively they can use them, the next

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:16.439
<v Speaker 1>step would be to give a main battle tank like

0:27:16.480 --> 0:27:21.040
<v Speaker 1>the M one. How about how about the any aircraft?

0:27:21.160 --> 0:27:25.840
<v Speaker 1>Because there's a scenario where NATO or the US provides aircraft.

0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:30.520
<v Speaker 1>Do you think I think there is a scenario the

0:27:30.560 --> 0:27:34.520
<v Speaker 1>longer this, uh, this m constant plays out and in

0:27:34.760 --> 0:27:36.880
<v Speaker 1>the US and NATO are gonna want to see any

0:27:36.880 --> 0:27:39.359
<v Speaker 1>this come to an end, and so it's going to

0:27:39.440 --> 0:27:44.520
<v Speaker 1>be that determination of whether an advanced fighter or aircraft. Obviously,

0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:46.920
<v Speaker 1>I think we'll put caveats that can't be used to

0:27:46.960 --> 0:27:50.560
<v Speaker 1>strike inside Russia, which is a handicap in the Ukrainians

0:27:50.560 --> 0:27:53.440
<v Speaker 1>pretty significant. But we don't want to see this turn

0:27:53.480 --> 0:27:56.400
<v Speaker 1>into a broader war that that would push I think

0:27:56.560 --> 0:27:59.000
<v Speaker 1>the decision makers in the United States to to look

0:27:59.000 --> 0:28:02.320
<v Speaker 1>at our fighter bar my aircraft, um, I think. But

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:04.680
<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to be in stages like fighting vehicle's,

0:28:04.960 --> 0:28:09.280
<v Speaker 1>main battle tanks, and then potentially more significant advanged uh

0:28:10.760 --> 0:28:17.800
<v Speaker 1>by aircraft in terms of uh Jack Ryan, I was

0:28:17.840 --> 0:28:19.960
<v Speaker 1>wondering what you what you thought, Mick. I mean, we've

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:24.240
<v Speaker 1>got all these great um new pieces out. Obviously Tom

0:28:24.240 --> 0:28:28.240
<v Speaker 1>Clancy is as older, but you've got Jack Carr right

0:28:28.280 --> 0:28:30.760
<v Speaker 1>now with the Terminal List. I've read all of those books.

0:28:30.760 --> 0:28:33.440
<v Speaker 1>They're pretty awesome, although he's incredibly political and it kind

0:28:33.440 --> 0:28:37.440
<v Speaker 1>of as a turn off. Um, You've got Admiral Travities

0:28:37.520 --> 0:28:41.800
<v Speaker 1>with four, which I thought was amazing and hopefully um

0:28:41.840 --> 0:28:44.920
<v Speaker 1>not too prescient. What do you think about this stuff?

0:28:45.400 --> 0:28:47.600
<v Speaker 1>This fiction? Does any of it appeal to you as

0:28:47.640 --> 0:28:51.640
<v Speaker 1>someone who's been in the biz himself? So A, man,

0:28:51.680 --> 0:28:53.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't. I don't watch the Jack Ryan stuff. But

0:28:54.680 --> 0:28:56.720
<v Speaker 1>four who is the admiral and a friend of mine

0:28:56.720 --> 0:29:01.760
<v Speaker 1>Elliot Ackerman Um who was former Range silverl Star recipients,

0:29:01.760 --> 0:29:04.320
<v Speaker 1>So I would definitely give credits, but for both of

0:29:04.320 --> 0:29:07.840
<v Speaker 1>those guys on on that work. And I'm a fan

0:29:08.400 --> 0:29:10.479
<v Speaker 1>of that. And I'm a real big fan of looking

0:29:10.880 --> 0:29:16.040
<v Speaker 1>ahead because YEA, oftentimes we just focus on the current conflict,

0:29:16.120 --> 0:29:17.480
<v Speaker 1>and that's important. We have to have a lot of

0:29:17.480 --> 0:29:19.320
<v Speaker 1>people doing that, but we always have to have people

0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:22.440
<v Speaker 1>looking for the future because we don't want it to

0:29:22.440 --> 0:29:24.480
<v Speaker 1>be a surprise, because that is one of the elements

0:29:24.480 --> 0:29:27.440
<v Speaker 1>of warfare that you don't want to get wrong. And

0:29:27.480 --> 0:29:30.040
<v Speaker 1>I think so out of those, I would definitely uh,

0:29:30.080 --> 0:29:32.760
<v Speaker 1>I would definitely point to with that. All right, good stuff,

0:29:32.960 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 1>Hey McK thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:36.640
<v Speaker 1>taking your time. You give us some good insight there

0:29:36.640 --> 0:29:39.600
<v Speaker 1>and what's happening on the ground there in Ukraine. Mcmlroy

0:29:39.760 --> 0:29:41.960
<v Speaker 1>he is the co founder of the Lobo Institute. Former

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:44.600
<v Speaker 1>US marine c i A. He's he's done it all

0:29:44.600 --> 0:29:50.280
<v Speaker 1>on seeing it also, we appreciate getting his perspective. All right,

0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:54.280
<v Speaker 1>let's switch gears. Let's pivot hard to w w E.

0:29:54.320 --> 0:29:59.480
<v Speaker 1>World Wrestling Entertainment. Looks like Mr McVan I'm sorry, McMahon

0:29:59.760 --> 0:30:03.040
<v Speaker 1>is coming back. The founder Jerry Smith, he covers all

0:30:03.080 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 1>this media stuff, this sports stuff for Bloomberg News. He

0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:08.239
<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone here, Jerry, what's going on

0:30:08.280 --> 0:30:12.480
<v Speaker 1>at w w E. Yeah, it's been a big shake up, um,

0:30:12.560 --> 0:30:17.000
<v Speaker 1>you know this morning, Um Vince McMahon. Uh. W w

0:30:17.040 --> 0:30:19.360
<v Speaker 1>E pad a statement saying that Vince would be returning

0:30:19.400 --> 0:30:22.760
<v Speaker 1>to the board and as well as two former w

0:30:22.760 --> 0:30:26.600
<v Speaker 1>w E executives and Vince would be removing three other

0:30:26.680 --> 0:30:30.800
<v Speaker 1>board members from the board. So this is a big

0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:35.600
<v Speaker 1>shake up Vince. To back up a little, Vince retired

0:30:35.680 --> 0:30:39.560
<v Speaker 1>from w w E last year, UM amid allegations of

0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:45.400
<v Speaker 1>infidelity and payments that he had made that um you know,

0:30:45.440 --> 0:30:48.960
<v Speaker 1>the company has been investigating. UM. So now he is

0:30:49.160 --> 0:30:54.360
<v Speaker 1>uh isn't that par for the course in w w E. Well,

0:30:54.840 --> 0:30:57.600
<v Speaker 1>so this is a big moment for the company though,

0:30:58.040 --> 0:31:01.360
<v Speaker 1>because Vince has come act and he can do this

0:31:01.480 --> 0:31:04.800
<v Speaker 1>because he is a controlling shareholder of the company. So

0:31:05.160 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 1>essentially what he says goes. And he wants to come

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:12.560
<v Speaker 1>back because this is a big moment where w w

0:31:12.680 --> 0:31:16.920
<v Speaker 1>E is trying to renew its media deals. Uh. It's

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:22.200
<v Speaker 1>matches are broadcast on USA, which is part of Comcast

0:31:22.240 --> 0:31:25.600
<v Speaker 1>and BC Universal as well as on Friday nights on

0:31:25.760 --> 0:31:30.280
<v Speaker 1>Fox and UM you know, there's Uh. He wants to

0:31:30.320 --> 0:31:33.080
<v Speaker 1>be back. He wants to be part of those negotiations.

0:31:33.160 --> 0:31:36.400
<v Speaker 1>And he also said in a statement yesterday he thinks

0:31:36.480 --> 0:31:40.360
<v Speaker 1>that these discussions about a media rights deal could also

0:31:40.600 --> 0:31:44.280
<v Speaker 1>coincide with the potential sale of the company. Um you know,

0:31:44.320 --> 0:31:49.240
<v Speaker 1>And he pointed out that the demand for live events

0:31:49.320 --> 0:31:52.600
<v Speaker 1>has never been greater in the TV business right now,

0:31:52.920 --> 0:31:57.160
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of media companies see value in owning

0:31:57.560 --> 0:32:00.760
<v Speaker 1>the content that they're putting on their station. Is so

0:32:00.840 --> 0:32:03.520
<v Speaker 1>he sees this as an opportunity to potentially negotiate a

0:32:03.560 --> 0:32:08.360
<v Speaker 1>sale of the company, UM, perhaps with NBCUniversal or Fox

0:32:08.640 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 1>or or maybe some other UM company that is interested.

0:32:13.480 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 1>So Jerry on that front, I mean that's kind of

0:32:15.320 --> 0:32:17.480
<v Speaker 1>what got my attention as a former banker. I started

0:32:17.520 --> 0:32:21.520
<v Speaker 1>going through, uh, the digital equivalent of the rolodex scene.

0:32:21.560 --> 0:32:23.760
<v Speaker 1>Who would be a potential buyer here? And and as

0:32:23.800 --> 0:32:26.560
<v Speaker 1>you suggested, there's can I think it's a pretty long

0:32:26.680 --> 0:32:29.160
<v Speaker 1>list here because this is some pretty compelling content that's

0:32:29.160 --> 0:32:32.400
<v Speaker 1>shown over a long period of time that you know,

0:32:32.680 --> 0:32:35.600
<v Speaker 1>incredibly loyal fan base, strong support from the sponsors. It

0:32:35.600 --> 0:32:38.160
<v Speaker 1>seems I could be you know, really something that a

0:32:38.200 --> 0:32:41.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of people would kick the tires on. Yeah. I

0:32:41.200 --> 0:32:44.560
<v Speaker 1>mean it has built up an entertainment empire that is

0:32:44.920 --> 0:32:49.400
<v Speaker 1>really quite impressive over the decades. UM. You know, Endeavor

0:32:49.440 --> 0:32:52.560
<v Speaker 1>could be another company, uh that that might be interested

0:32:52.600 --> 0:32:57.400
<v Speaker 1>in ww E. They they own UFC UM you know

0:32:57.920 --> 0:33:02.400
<v Speaker 1>NBC actually by ball the w w E streaming service

0:33:02.440 --> 0:33:05.440
<v Speaker 1>and put it on the NBC streaming service Peacock a

0:33:05.440 --> 0:33:09.719
<v Speaker 1>few years ago. So there's already a deep relationship between

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:13.520
<v Speaker 1>those two companies. Any sense of when of timing here,

0:33:13.560 --> 0:33:16.800
<v Speaker 1>like how quickly could this whole process move here? Because

0:33:16.840 --> 0:33:19.880
<v Speaker 1>it seems like Vince McMahon is someone is something. If

0:33:19.880 --> 0:33:21.760
<v Speaker 1>he wants to get something done, he can get it done.

0:33:21.800 --> 0:33:24.880
<v Speaker 1>He controls the company. If he wants to sell the company,

0:33:25.520 --> 0:33:28.000
<v Speaker 1>seems like it could happen sooner rather than later. I

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:32.920
<v Speaker 1>don't know, Yeah, I mean things are already moving fast.

0:33:33.000 --> 0:33:35.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean the report. You know, they put out a

0:33:35.960 --> 0:33:40.280
<v Speaker 1>statement yesterday where Vince said that he would like to

0:33:40.320 --> 0:33:43.160
<v Speaker 1>come back to the board and um, you know, add

0:33:43.160 --> 0:33:46.800
<v Speaker 1>a few board members, um that he's close with. And

0:33:46.840 --> 0:33:49.600
<v Speaker 1>then today a day later, he's on the board and

0:33:49.640 --> 0:33:53.440
<v Speaker 1>those board members that he wanted are are there. So yeah,

0:33:53.520 --> 0:33:58.680
<v Speaker 1>he really um w W E's is fairly unique in

0:33:59.000 --> 0:34:03.120
<v Speaker 1>the media landscape where one man really controls calls all

0:34:03.160 --> 0:34:07.600
<v Speaker 1>the shots and um you know, so, uh, it's hard

0:34:07.600 --> 0:34:10.960
<v Speaker 1>to say exactly what the timing will be. Um, he

0:34:10.960 --> 0:34:15.759
<v Speaker 1>he wants to coincide, Uh, these media rights discussions with

0:34:15.920 --> 0:34:19.160
<v Speaker 1>NBC and Fox about a potential sale Um, but yeah,

0:34:19.280 --> 0:34:22.760
<v Speaker 1>Vince is the he's he calls the shots at w

0:34:22.760 --> 0:34:25.359
<v Speaker 1>w E and how quickly he wants things to move

0:34:25.400 --> 0:34:27.239
<v Speaker 1>along is really up to him. Is it still a

0:34:27.280 --> 0:34:29.120
<v Speaker 1>big draw? I mean it was when I was a

0:34:29.200 --> 0:34:34.279
<v Speaker 1>kid for some people. Um has it? Has it continued

0:34:34.320 --> 0:34:39.120
<v Speaker 1>to be as strong? Uh? Property? Yeah? I mean the

0:34:39.239 --> 0:34:43.040
<v Speaker 1>ratings are are are are still very strong, and I

0:34:43.080 --> 0:34:46.439
<v Speaker 1>mean this is um, you know, just to step back,

0:34:46.480 --> 0:34:50.759
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the whole television landscape now is really um.

0:34:50.800 --> 0:34:53.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, people are cutting the cord. They're getting a

0:34:53.120 --> 0:34:55.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of their dramas and their comedies on streaming services

0:34:55.840 --> 0:34:59.480
<v Speaker 1>like Netflix. But you know, the cable bundle is really

0:34:59.520 --> 0:35:03.120
<v Speaker 1>about five sports and w w E is is an

0:35:03.120 --> 0:35:07.399
<v Speaker 1>attractive property for media companies for that very reason. All right, Jerry,

0:35:07.400 --> 0:35:09.560
<v Speaker 1>great stuff. Really appreciate it. Jerry Smith. He's a media

0:35:09.600 --> 0:35:12.239
<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg News. Looking at World Ward Wrestling a

0:35:12.400 --> 0:35:16.360
<v Speaker 1>w w E up today, fifty two week high stocks

0:35:16.440 --> 0:35:23.360
<v Speaker 1>up over the trailing twelve months. How about that. You

0:35:23.400 --> 0:35:25.920
<v Speaker 1>had the Eco data today. Jobs numbers came out. I

0:35:25.960 --> 0:35:29.279
<v Speaker 1>thought they were really good. MAT's a little bit not

0:35:29.360 --> 0:35:32.280
<v Speaker 1>so well. No, they were good. I mean we added

0:35:32.960 --> 0:35:35.880
<v Speaker 1>two hundred and twenty three thousand jobs in the month

0:35:36.160 --> 0:35:41.680
<v Speaker 1>and record unemployment at a record low. That's good from

0:35:41.719 --> 0:35:45.239
<v Speaker 1>from a social perspective, right, I'm just saying from a

0:35:45.320 --> 0:35:49.120
<v Speaker 1>market's perspective, from a FED perspective, market, if they want

0:35:49.160 --> 0:35:53.959
<v Speaker 1>to fight inflation, I think they have to get unemployment

0:35:54.040 --> 0:35:58.000
<v Speaker 1>close to the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, and

0:35:58.040 --> 0:36:00.879
<v Speaker 1>three and a half percent can't be there ages wage growth.

0:36:01.400 --> 0:36:03.120
<v Speaker 1>Let's just go to some professionals who cares what we

0:36:03.160 --> 0:36:06.000
<v Speaker 1>think had a fixed income for New Edge. Well, if

0:36:06.000 --> 0:36:09.360
<v Speaker 1>he joined us the show in studio today in Jeffrey Cleveland,

0:36:09.560 --> 0:36:12.080
<v Speaker 1>chief US economists of Paidon and Regal, joining us via

0:36:12.200 --> 0:36:15.440
<v Speaker 1>a zoom. Jeff, let's start with you, how did how

0:36:15.440 --> 0:36:18.719
<v Speaker 1>did you take this job's number report? Well, I think

0:36:18.760 --> 0:36:22.440
<v Speaker 1>Matt is correct in that the whole goal that the

0:36:22.480 --> 0:36:26.360
<v Speaker 1>FED is operated on their engineering. They're attempting to engineer

0:36:26.840 --> 0:36:31.040
<v Speaker 1>arise in the unemployment rate to get nominal wage growth

0:36:31.080 --> 0:36:34.320
<v Speaker 1>to slow, and then that's supposed to damp in inflation pressure.

0:36:34.400 --> 0:36:37.480
<v Speaker 1>That's the whole point of all of these rate hikes.

0:36:37.520 --> 0:36:40.120
<v Speaker 1>That that's it, and then boom you you open the

0:36:40.360 --> 0:36:43.560
<v Speaker 1>UH Employment Situation Report at five thirty here on the

0:36:43.560 --> 0:36:48.759
<v Speaker 1>West Coast and the unemployee rate fell, so it's it's

0:36:48.800 --> 0:36:51.959
<v Speaker 1>not working in that sense, right. However, I do think

0:36:52.280 --> 0:36:55.680
<v Speaker 1>it is interesting to consider that it's possible the FED

0:36:55.880 --> 0:37:00.080
<v Speaker 1>is wrong about that inflation story, that inflation was I

0:37:00.320 --> 0:37:03.640
<v Speaker 1>for all sorts of let's we can't use a transitory

0:37:04.239 --> 0:37:10.360
<v Speaker 1>but you know, pandemic specific or two specific reasons, and

0:37:10.360 --> 0:37:15.320
<v Speaker 1>then inflation does fade. And that's your soft landing scenario

0:37:15.480 --> 0:37:19.040
<v Speaker 1>that I think cannot be ruled out we even had.

0:37:19.400 --> 0:37:21.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Cloudy Assam has been writing for a while

0:37:21.880 --> 0:37:24.520
<v Speaker 1>about how she thinks the Phillips curve is BS in

0:37:25.480 --> 0:37:28.160
<v Speaker 1>at least some sense, and what she doesn't want is

0:37:28.200 --> 0:37:33.480
<v Speaker 1>for the FED to fight inflation through, you know, destroying

0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:37.160
<v Speaker 1>American lives. And I thought it was interesting. Rag Aram

0:37:37.280 --> 0:37:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Rajan was on Bloomberg Television yesterday and he has come

0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:44.200
<v Speaker 1>out and said he of the r b I and

0:37:44.840 --> 0:37:49.080
<v Speaker 1>um where where he was chief economist at the ruh

0:37:49.280 --> 0:37:51.040
<v Speaker 1>NO and he ran the rb I, and he was

0:37:51.080 --> 0:37:52.920
<v Speaker 1>chief economist at like the I m F or something

0:37:52.960 --> 0:37:55.600
<v Speaker 1>I can't remember, the World Bank, something big. Anyway, he's

0:37:55.600 --> 0:37:57.839
<v Speaker 1>at the Boost Goal in Chicago now and he said,

0:37:58.120 --> 0:38:00.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, the FED has to be ready for inflation

0:38:00.680 --> 0:38:05.680
<v Speaker 1>to come down quickly to you know, low inflation territory

0:38:05.840 --> 0:38:10.160
<v Speaker 1>or even disinflation. Um Ben Emmons, what do you think

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:12.480
<v Speaker 1>about the situation that FED finds itself in now? Do

0:38:12.560 --> 0:38:14.680
<v Speaker 1>they have to raise unemployment to get inflation down or

0:38:14.760 --> 0:38:18.360
<v Speaker 1>is it coming down naturally? It is coming down naturally

0:38:18.440 --> 0:38:21.120
<v Speaker 1>through the good side of the economy. And I guess

0:38:21.200 --> 0:38:26.040
<v Speaker 1>the dropping energy prices that is consistent now is really

0:38:26.080 --> 0:38:29.200
<v Speaker 1>helping the cause. And that obviously is a one hand

0:38:29.320 --> 0:38:32.239
<v Speaker 1>supportive for real income. On the other hand, it is

0:38:32.280 --> 0:38:35.080
<v Speaker 1>a factor in the economy that leads them to lower

0:38:35.120 --> 0:38:38.360
<v Speaker 1>inflation expectations and therefore the FED gets quicker to the

0:38:38.520 --> 0:38:42.239
<v Speaker 1>goal of two percent inflation over time. But if you

0:38:42.280 --> 0:38:44.759
<v Speaker 1>read the minutes, they're having a heated debate, though I

0:38:44.800 --> 0:38:46.680
<v Speaker 1>think it felt to me I could heat a debate

0:38:46.719 --> 0:38:50.520
<v Speaker 1>about how far to go with tightening or overtightening. And

0:38:50.560 --> 0:38:54.040
<v Speaker 1>if you listen to Ballard yesterday, although his projection is

0:38:54.040 --> 0:38:56.239
<v Speaker 1>coming down a little bit, it's still really high and

0:38:56.280 --> 0:38:58.319
<v Speaker 1>he seems to be really driving the debata. So it

0:38:58.360 --> 0:39:02.600
<v Speaker 1>seems that they with this Goldilocks quoteunquote goldilocks jobs supports

0:39:02.960 --> 0:39:07.000
<v Speaker 1>vindicates a few like yes, moderating wages, maybe someone slowing

0:39:07.040 --> 0:39:09.879
<v Speaker 1>and inflation with strong jobs report should allow us to

0:39:09.960 --> 0:39:12.160
<v Speaker 1>raise rates here at least to restrictive level. And they

0:39:12.280 --> 0:39:15.839
<v Speaker 1>was sure that inflation comes back to tust. So, Jeff,

0:39:15.880 --> 0:39:18.160
<v Speaker 1>how do you think the Federal Reserve behaves over the

0:39:18.200 --> 0:39:20.600
<v Speaker 1>next couple of meetings? What are you looking for again?

0:39:20.640 --> 0:39:25.279
<v Speaker 1>And you know maybe this jobs data impacts that outlook. Well,

0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:27.280
<v Speaker 1>I think it's difficult. You know, I always tell clients

0:39:27.280 --> 0:39:29.480
<v Speaker 1>you have to take off your your investor hat, you

0:39:29.480 --> 0:39:31.000
<v Speaker 1>have to put on the Fed hat. You have to

0:39:31.040 --> 0:39:33.200
<v Speaker 1>see the world the way they see the world. And

0:39:33.200 --> 0:39:35.919
<v Speaker 1>I think has been pointed out there is this very

0:39:35.960 --> 0:39:40.279
<v Speaker 1>strong line throughout the Fed minutes that they by large

0:39:40.320 --> 0:39:43.680
<v Speaker 1>the committee thinks that if the unemployment rate stays low,

0:39:44.080 --> 0:39:46.959
<v Speaker 1>the labor market remains tight, that will feed through into

0:39:46.960 --> 0:39:49.760
<v Speaker 1>nominal wage growth, and that will feed through into the

0:39:49.840 --> 0:39:53.760
<v Speaker 1>non housing services component of core inflation. So goods prices

0:39:53.800 --> 0:39:58.200
<v Speaker 1>may fall, rents may distilerate, but it's that non housing

0:39:58.280 --> 0:40:01.520
<v Speaker 1>component which will still be eli because of the labor

0:40:01.560 --> 0:40:04.560
<v Speaker 1>market story. So they've definitely view inflation through the labor

0:40:04.600 --> 0:40:06.239
<v Speaker 1>market lens. I think you have to keep that in

0:40:06.280 --> 0:40:09.239
<v Speaker 1>mind as an investor, because I think, as we see

0:40:09.280 --> 0:40:12.080
<v Speaker 1>this morning, three and a half percent unemployment, right, you're

0:40:12.120 --> 0:40:14.680
<v Speaker 1>looking at the world through that labor market lens, right

0:40:14.760 --> 0:40:17.240
<v Speaker 1>or wrong, You're going to think we need to remain

0:40:17.640 --> 0:40:20.920
<v Speaker 1>restrictive now, maybe that they don't need to keep hiking,

0:40:21.000 --> 0:40:23.839
<v Speaker 1>maybe they pause in the second quarter, sort of our expectation.

0:40:24.520 --> 0:40:27.920
<v Speaker 1>But do you cut with the unemployment rate of three

0:40:27.920 --> 0:40:32.759
<v Speaker 1>and a half percent. No, I don't think so. Why

0:40:33.480 --> 0:40:35.440
<v Speaker 1>on earth wouldn't you take advantage of a three and

0:40:35.480 --> 0:40:39.920
<v Speaker 1>a half percent unemployment even if you're not fighting inflation, um,

0:40:39.960 --> 0:40:41.600
<v Speaker 1>just to build up dry powder. And I know a

0:40:41.640 --> 0:40:44.399
<v Speaker 1>lot of people been are against that argument, but if

0:40:44.400 --> 0:40:46.480
<v Speaker 1>it were me, I would say, let me save up

0:40:46.520 --> 0:40:49.839
<v Speaker 1>some basis points here. If I get unemployment at three

0:40:50.160 --> 0:40:53.719
<v Speaker 1>point five percent, I'm raising fifty again in February. It's

0:40:53.760 --> 0:40:56.400
<v Speaker 1>exactly through the fast ends. Like this is actually ideal

0:40:56.440 --> 0:40:58.800
<v Speaker 1>scenario for them to say, look our rate heights and

0:40:58.920 --> 0:41:01.880
<v Speaker 1>not the railing the rate the labor market and anyway,

0:41:01.920 --> 0:41:04.920
<v Speaker 1>it's not in any recession. There's not any recession happening

0:41:04.920 --> 0:41:08.279
<v Speaker 1>as we speak. There's slowdown happening, but that's you know,

0:41:08.480 --> 0:41:10.840
<v Speaker 1>natural as you get from a major boom of this

0:41:10.920 --> 0:41:14.200
<v Speaker 1>pandemic that we have, so you can continue to move

0:41:14.280 --> 0:41:17.600
<v Speaker 1>this rate higher. Only they've decided on the slower basis

0:41:17.640 --> 0:41:21.160
<v Speaker 1>may be appropriate because if you do continue with seventy

0:41:21.160 --> 0:41:23.399
<v Speaker 1>five base points at the time on you know, let's

0:41:23.440 --> 0:41:25.920
<v Speaker 1>say are not a three four meetings, that way, you

0:41:26.040 --> 0:41:28.560
<v Speaker 1>probably get more of all. They gotta go fifty at

0:41:28.560 --> 0:41:30.839
<v Speaker 1>the next meeting right then, because if they don't, if

0:41:30.880 --> 0:41:34.000
<v Speaker 1>they only go twenty five, and then inflation comes roaring back,

0:41:34.040 --> 0:41:37.280
<v Speaker 1>then Jerome Pale is Arthur Burns and all bets are off.

0:41:37.360 --> 0:41:39.120
<v Speaker 1>So there's a great question, Matt, that that is the

0:41:39.200 --> 0:41:41.520
<v Speaker 1>toss up here still of twenty five or fifty base

0:41:41.560 --> 0:41:44.600
<v Speaker 1>on list report. As you see the market rallying today,

0:41:44.719 --> 0:41:47.240
<v Speaker 1>it says no, will be twenty five, but there's actually

0:41:47.280 --> 0:41:50.840
<v Speaker 1>a fifty base point rate hikes. What this report is, say, Jeffrey,

0:41:50.920 --> 0:41:56.799
<v Speaker 1>what's the paidon in regal kind of recession call for? Well,

0:41:56.840 --> 0:41:59.400
<v Speaker 1>we look at the yield curve, we look at rate hikes,

0:41:59.480 --> 0:42:03.319
<v Speaker 1>we look at housing. Housing historically is the business cycle.

0:42:03.400 --> 0:42:07.000
<v Speaker 1>So when housing rolls over, you generally have a recession

0:42:07.000 --> 0:42:11.520
<v Speaker 1>that follows housing exactly. So it can happen with the lag.

0:42:11.560 --> 0:42:14.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean you you probably remember very well. Housing to

0:42:14.400 --> 0:42:17.360
<v Speaker 1>meet peaked in summer of oh five or arguably early

0:42:17.440 --> 0:42:21.880
<v Speaker 1>oh six. The recession didn't officially begin until December of

0:42:21.880 --> 0:42:24.640
<v Speaker 1>oh seven, so there can be lags. So we've been saying, hey,

0:42:24.640 --> 0:42:27.440
<v Speaker 1>it might be that the economy skates by without a

0:42:27.440 --> 0:42:31.120
<v Speaker 1>recession in twenty three. Maybe that's a story. The jobs

0:42:31.120 --> 0:42:35.080
<v Speaker 1>report today, certainly, I think, uh talking bolsters that argument.

0:42:35.680 --> 0:42:37.279
<v Speaker 1>The other thing I was gonna say, though, is the

0:42:37.320 --> 0:42:40.160
<v Speaker 1>bondmarket seems to conclude the supporting that maybe there's only

0:42:40.200 --> 0:42:41.919
<v Speaker 1>gonna be a twenty five basis point high, or maybe

0:42:41.920 --> 0:42:43.719
<v Speaker 1>that FED is close to being done, but they hate

0:42:43.719 --> 0:42:45.000
<v Speaker 1>to be the bear of bad news. We still have

0:42:45.080 --> 0:42:49.000
<v Speaker 1>CPI uh coming up next Thursday, I believe, and then

0:42:49.160 --> 0:42:53.600
<v Speaker 1>the FED prefers the employment cost Index over average generally learning.

0:42:53.640 --> 0:42:55.560
<v Speaker 1>So e c I. E c I is coming out

0:42:56.800 --> 0:42:59.520
<v Speaker 1>January thirty one, so right before the next FED meetings.

0:42:59.560 --> 0:43:03.359
<v Speaker 1>So I think there's still uh, this narrative could still

0:43:03.360 --> 0:43:05.960
<v Speaker 1>shift back, you know, if we get a stronger than

0:43:05.960 --> 0:43:09.560
<v Speaker 1>expected course c p I, for example, which is coming out. Wait,

0:43:09.640 --> 0:43:13.160
<v Speaker 1>isn't CPI coming out next week? Is that the specific? Yeah?

0:43:14.239 --> 0:43:16.239
<v Speaker 1>And that's right. I do agree with Jeff, there, like,

0:43:17.120 --> 0:43:19.760
<v Speaker 1>look at the European data today, right, so we peaked

0:43:19.760 --> 0:43:21.840
<v Speaker 1>there were falling off with headline face shows. Yeah, I

0:43:21.840 --> 0:43:25.080
<v Speaker 1>guess prices pomited, but the core rate is pretty sticky there.

0:43:25.160 --> 0:43:28.960
<v Speaker 1>It's not really moving, right, So yeah, we have we

0:43:29.040 --> 0:43:31.759
<v Speaker 1>have somewhat similar here too. And to Jeff's point, like

0:43:31.840 --> 0:43:35.240
<v Speaker 1>this core PC ex housing that's been highlighted by Powell

0:43:35.320 --> 0:43:38.040
<v Speaker 1>not put in the minutes to that's really the number

0:43:38.080 --> 0:43:40.279
<v Speaker 1>to watch. It has come off a little bit in

0:43:40.280 --> 0:43:43.600
<v Speaker 1>the last week reading, but it's way over four percent.

0:43:43.640 --> 0:43:46.760
<v Speaker 1>So is that the four point six percent number set four? Yeah, exactly,

0:43:46.800 --> 0:43:49.160
<v Speaker 1>So it's just too far above target. It's not like

0:43:49.200 --> 0:43:50.960
<v Speaker 1>the official target, but it's like the number of the

0:43:51.520 --> 0:43:54.120
<v Speaker 1>Jeff says, it's it's a wage linked number. And that's

0:43:54.120 --> 0:43:59.040
<v Speaker 1>what we see is traditionally there go to number they're preferred,

0:43:59.040 --> 0:44:01.680
<v Speaker 1>and I never know if they like, uh, they they've

0:44:01.760 --> 0:44:03.920
<v Speaker 1>had They have specified in a number of papers that

0:44:04.000 --> 0:44:06.920
<v Speaker 1>PC is their preferred measure, but they haven't specified if

0:44:06.920 --> 0:44:09.960
<v Speaker 1>it's headline or core or core x housing. Um, I

0:44:09.960 --> 0:44:11.759
<v Speaker 1>guess they don't want to let us in. No, that

0:44:12.680 --> 0:44:14.560
<v Speaker 1>that's the fat watching game here and it keeps us all,

0:44:14.840 --> 0:44:18.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, engaged, and but you know to to that

0:44:18.440 --> 0:44:20.960
<v Speaker 1>is that I actually think that if you if you

0:44:21.000 --> 0:44:24.160
<v Speaker 1>take headline is the broadest measure of inflation, and you

0:44:24.200 --> 0:44:27.239
<v Speaker 1>could need to see negative month to month prints from

0:44:27.320 --> 0:44:30.960
<v Speaker 1>here on, then that's definitely an indication inflation coming down faster.

0:44:31.080 --> 0:44:33.680
<v Speaker 1>So I do think you need to watch that, and

0:44:33.719 --> 0:44:36.000
<v Speaker 1>if you also watch jobless claims every week. I was

0:44:36.120 --> 0:44:38.439
<v Speaker 1>thought of these two measures as you're you know, real

0:44:38.480 --> 0:44:40.360
<v Speaker 1>time gauge on where we are with the economy in

0:44:40.480 --> 0:44:42.960
<v Speaker 1>terms of inflation pressure. Hey, Jeff, you're based in l

0:44:43.000 --> 0:44:46.000
<v Speaker 1>A thirty seconds, how's the economy there? How's the outlook there?

0:44:46.000 --> 0:44:48.480
<v Speaker 1>What are you here when you're a day to day Well,

0:44:48.480 --> 0:44:51.080
<v Speaker 1>we just endured, you know, several days of rain, which

0:44:51.080 --> 0:44:53.640
<v Speaker 1>never rarely happens there. They've got four inches of rain

0:44:53.680 --> 0:44:56.560
<v Speaker 1>in my neighborhood here, so that has been that has

0:44:56.560 --> 0:44:59.400
<v Speaker 1>certainly been the top of the town. I think. Second

0:44:59.400 --> 0:45:03.120
<v Speaker 1>to that, the thing everyone talks about is still the

0:45:03.200 --> 0:45:06.239
<v Speaker 1>labor shortage that companies don't, you know, there's they have

0:45:06.320 --> 0:45:09.319
<v Speaker 1>demand for labor, they can't find enough people who are

0:45:09.360 --> 0:45:12.440
<v Speaker 1>willing or able or that wanted to fill those positions.

0:45:12.440 --> 0:45:15.480
<v Speaker 1>So that's that's pretty dominant um weakness in the housing market, though,

0:45:15.520 --> 0:45:19.640
<v Speaker 1>we are seeing pretty pretty substantial slowdown in activity, sales

0:45:19.680 --> 0:45:22.640
<v Speaker 1>and prices of decilerated so it will probably be the

0:45:22.960 --> 0:45:25.280
<v Speaker 1>top things that are being discussed here on the West Coast.

0:45:25.400 --> 0:45:27.760
<v Speaker 1>Good stuff the moment, all right, Jeff, Great stuff, Jeff Cleveland,

0:45:27.840 --> 0:45:30.279
<v Speaker 1>chief US economist, Payden and Regal and Ben Emmon's head

0:45:30.280 --> 0:45:32.440
<v Speaker 1>of fixing come at New Edge Wealth joining us here.

0:45:35.640 --> 0:45:38.719
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

0:45:38.760 --> 0:45:42.520
<v Speaker 1>subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever

0:45:42.640 --> 0:45:46.240
<v Speaker 1>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

0:45:46.560 --> 0:45:50.040
<v Speaker 1>at Matt Miller, three peat on false Sweeney, I'm on

0:45:50.080 --> 0:45:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always

0:45:53.040 --> 0:45:54.879
<v Speaker 1>catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.