1 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. I am really delighted 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,879 Speaker 1: to have an old friend guests who I've known for 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: years and have admired for years. He is the operating 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:18,959 Speaker 1: executive of the Carlisle Group, which is a global investment firm. 5 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: He's a chairman of the board of Counselors of mcclardy Associates, 6 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: which is an international consulting firm. Before that, he served 7 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: for five years as the dean of the Fletcher School 8 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. But his record 9 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: in the military before that was amazing, thirty seven years 10 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,239 Speaker 1: serving the United States all around the world, led the 11 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: NATO Alliance and global operations. From two thousand and nine 12 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: to two thirteen, he was a Supreme Allied Commander with 13 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 1: responsibility for Afghanistan and Libya, the Balkan, Syria, counter piracy, 14 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: and cybersecurity. He also, before that, served as Commander of 15 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: the US Southern Command to responsibility for all military operations 16 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: in Latin America from two thousand and six to two 17 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: thousand and nine. I first met him when he was 18 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: the Chief Military Adviser to the Secretary of Defense. He 19 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: has earned more than fifty medals, including twenty eight from 20 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: foreign nations in his thirty seven year military career, and 21 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: he recently wrote a book which I found so important 22 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 1: that I promptly contacted him and asked if we couldn't 23 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: do a podcast, because he combines an interesting novel which 24 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: I recommend just as a novel, but he combines insights 25 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: and warnings for the America based on his lifetime career. 26 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: It's entitled two thousand and thirty four, a Novel of 27 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: the Next World War. And I think given that background, 28 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: you can see the kind of credentials he brings to bear. 29 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 1: Admiral James Stefridus, Jim Stefridus, to me, is a terrific 30 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: patriot and remarkably intellectual person with a very broad range 31 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: of knowledge. And I just want you to know, Kim 32 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: that I'm really glad that you would take the time 33 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 1: to join us for this podcast. Mister speaker. It's the pleasure. 34 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: And I think I've had the privilege of knowing you 35 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 1: personally for close to two decades. Met you in the 36 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: office of Don Rumsfeld, a mutual friend of ours and 37 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: a mentor to me, and it has been nothing but 38 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: a pleasure to work with you on so many issues 39 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: of international security over the year. So thanks for having me. 40 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: I'm sir. Could you share us as a starting point 41 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 1: for your remarkable career in the Navy, your paternal grandfather's 42 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 1: immigration and how that affected you. My grandparents came from 43 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 1: what is today Turkey. They were ethnically Greek, but lived 44 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: outside of the city of Izmir. At the time, it 45 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: was called Smir and it was part of the Ottoman 46 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: Empire in the first part of the last century. And 47 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: in nineteen twenty two, after a series of attacks back 48 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: and forth between the Greeks and the Turks, the Turkish 49 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: army burned the city of Smyrna, and my grandmother literally 50 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: stood on the quay wall as the city burned behind 51 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:20,559 Speaker 1: her was rescued by Greek fisherman. She and my grandfather 52 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: ended up in Athens together and took ship to the 53 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 1: United States. So, mister speaker, I've had the extraordinary privilege 54 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 1: of going to ls Island and seeing the records of 55 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: my grandparents become American citizens in the nineteen twenties. And 56 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: then to complete the story, I went back to Turkey 57 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: seventy years later. So nineteen twenty two, my grandparents come here. 58 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: Ownership in nineteen ninety two, roughly, I go back in 59 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 1: command of a billion dollars US worship. So you think 60 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: what happened in the Middle from nineteen twenty two to 61 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two, though seventy years America happened. And I'm 62 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: very proud to be the son of immigrants and to 63 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: have sailed back to the place they debarked from to 64 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: come here to the United States. That must have been 65 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: quite an emotional moment to come into harbor and reflect 66 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: on your grandparents and realized that you commanded the most 67 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: powerful single ship in the region. That's just amazing. Indeed, 68 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: it was deeply emotional, and it kind of repeated itself 69 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: a few years later when I improbably became a four 70 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: star admiral, probably due to a computer error of some kind, 71 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: but became Supreme Allied Commander of NATA. What was the 72 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: first capital I visited? It was on corrupt and I 73 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: went there because I was well aware that the Turks 74 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: were well aware of my background. They knew that my 75 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 1: grandparents had been driven out of Turkey as refugees, and 76 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,600 Speaker 1: I think they might have felt, as a Greek American 77 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: that I carried bitterness toward Turkey I do not, As 78 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: you and I both understand, we need to comprehend the past, 79 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: but not be imprisoned by it. And so I went 80 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: to Ankara and enjoyed a very warm relationship for my 81 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: four years, particularly with the Minister of Defense later Prime 82 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: Minister Ahmed Dabatolu. And I'll conclude the story by saying, 83 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: when I finished my time as Supreme Allied Commander of 84 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: NATO twenty thirteen, then Prime Minister Davitolu gave me as 85 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 1: a parting gift, not a NATO clock radio or something, 86 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: but he gave me a beautiful book of vintage postcards 87 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 1: of the city of Smyrna from the days in which 88 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: my grandparents lived in the city. Oh wow, that would 89 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: really be a sort of family air, a little your 90 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:56,039 Speaker 1: treasure the rest of your life. Indeed, and both my girls, 91 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 1: I have two daughters in their early thirties, are both 92 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: very out of that Greek American heritage. Both to visited 93 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: Greece multiple times, and it's a big part of our 94 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: lives being Greek American. When Closter was the Ambassador of 95 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 1: the Vatican, we had the privilege you're getting to note, 96 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: the Dean of the Ambassadors who is the ambassador from Cyprus, 97 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 1: and listening to him talking his concerns and his whole 98 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: attitude was a very powerful part of our experience in Rome. 99 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: Let me ask if you got so many awardsmen, the 100 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 1: Navy League's John Paul Jones Award for Inspirational Leadership, you 101 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: were asked to lead the Navy's think tank for innovation. 102 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: Right after the nine to eleven attack. You served as 103 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: the first Navy admiral to be Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. 104 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: I wasn't surprised that you were picked to do that 105 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 1: just because you sit on smart but it really was 106 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: a break with tradition to have what had historically been 107 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 1: a largely ground forces and occasional air force assignment suddenly 108 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: have this guy step off the sup and into the 109 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: headquarters at months. What was your sense as you tried 110 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: to hold together the alliance and had to deal with 111 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: all those different countries. What was your general experience of 112 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: that kind of very complicated multilateral relationship. Well, I was lucky, 113 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: and you know this, mister speaker, because Don Rumsfeld had 114 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: pulled me up from three star rank, made me a 115 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: four star and sent me to command US Southern Commander. 116 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: I was also the first admiral to command Southern Command, 117 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: and Southern Command is almost a perfect training ground to 118 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: get ready to go to a larger combatant command like 119 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: US European Command. Slant Supreme Allie Commander of NATO. So 120 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: as commander of US Southern Commander and I discussed this 121 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: with you at the time. We needed to bring a 122 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: different tool set to working with that reach and then 123 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: included not only the capability to conduct war fighting operations, 124 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: but humanitarian operations, medical diplomacy, cultural engagement, strategic communications to 125 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: explain the role of the United States. All of those tools. 126 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: Working with thirty plus nations south of the United States 127 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: prepared me to then step into the stage at NATO, 128 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: which is a very complex one. At that moment, there 129 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 1: were twenty eight nations in NATO. Today there are thirty, 130 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: and each of them are fundamentally different. Really, no two 131 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: of any of the NATO members have even roughly similar backgrounds, 132 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:37,079 Speaker 1: the history, the language, the culture, and you have to 133 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 1: be respectful of it. You have to be prepared to 134 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: come to the table at NATO and recognize that even 135 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 1: the smallest nation Iceland, for example, Luxembourg can say to 136 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: the alliance, well, we don't agree with that. This is 137 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: a consensus driven and therefore I had to learn very 138 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:58,959 Speaker 1: quickly how to try and bring these nations together at 139 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 1: the military level, and of course the Secretary of State, 140 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense, We're doing it at the cabinet level, 141 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: and the President was doing it at the head of 142 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: government level, but all of us. If we were going 143 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: to make NATO work in Afghanistan, Libya, the balkanst piracy, 144 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: cyber and all of those venues, we had to do 145 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: it by consensus. We had to bring our allies with us, 146 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 1: and that was the central focus of what I did 147 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: for four years. Now, NATO in a sense became schizophrenic, 148 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: in a sense that on the one hand, it was 149 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: created to contain the Soviet Empire and was really focused 150 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: on winning the Central Front in Germany and being able 151 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: to sustain the lines of communications and logistics across the Atlantic. 152 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:50,679 Speaker 1: But it's now also taken roles in almost let's say, 153 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: a third of the world and campaigns like Iraq or Afghanistan. 154 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: To what extent does that duality make things more complicated 155 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: in trying to get an effective NATO military It raises 156 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: the bark considerably In addition to Iraq in Afghanistan, which 157 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: you mentioned, there was the intervention in Libya, and each 158 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,559 Speaker 1: of those are a different facts set that we could 159 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: walk through. But the principal reason for doing them, and 160 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: I think it's worth answering that question, is that all 161 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: of those venues presented real impact, real threat to the 162 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: member states of the Alliance, and Turkey and its borders 163 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 1: with Syria and Iraq were threatened by terrorism. Obviously, we 164 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: were in Afghanistan because of an attack nine to eleven 165 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: against the United States. We were in Libya at the 166 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: request of the United Nations, but also because we wanted 167 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: to prevent massive waves of refugees coming into the European 168 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 1: side of the Alliance. So I think there's rationale for 169 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: all of those particular instances and others as well. But 170 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 1: you're right, duality is a diplomatic word for it, and 171 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: there are certainly voices who say, no, NATO should really 172 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: mind its knitting, should really focus on deterring Russia, and 173 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: that's certainly a continuous, ongoing mission. I would argue the 174 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 1: other side of that one and say that the Alliance 175 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 1: needs to think about where it is threatened in cyber 176 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 1: in the Arctic from the Middle East, because if you 177 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 1: just sit back in the citadel of Europe in this 178 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 1: case and wait, you're in a less advantageous position. I 179 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:37,560 Speaker 1: would argue to deter stop change those threats at distance. 180 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: So I'll conclude by saying, you know, you don't want 181 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: to be ridiculous. I don't think NATO should be launching 182 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: missions into sub Saharan Africa or into Brazilia. But on 183 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: the other hand, I think when there is a proximate 184 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: threat to the Alliance, it's legitimate to take action out 185 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: of area, if you will. One of those places that 186 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: you've had intimate knowledge of is Afghanistan, which is now 187 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: the longest war we've ever fought, and I personally would 188 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: argue begs to be really thoroughly studied and try to 189 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 1: figure out in retrospect where there are alternative strategies or 190 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: alternative techniques that might have yielded a different outcome. But 191 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: we're now in the process of getting out. And one 192 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 1: of two things strikes me. One is you can see 193 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: the collapse of the pro Western regime and it's replacement 194 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: by the Taliban. The other is you could imagine the 195 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 1: Chinese cutting a deal and coming in as a protector 196 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: of the government. What's your sense of the risk that 197 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 1: we're running. We are running high risk in two dimensions, 198 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: both of which you touch on. The first is that 199 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:54,679 Speaker 1: the Taliban take over completely, and the Taliban effectively continue 200 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: a relationship with al Qaeda, with the Islamic State, We're 201 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: right back where we started nine eleven. I'd say that 202 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: is a fifty fifty chance at this point. On the 203 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: other side of the coin is the chance that the 204 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: government remains in power, but that China becomes the patron, 205 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 1: perhaps in condominium, mister speaker, with Russia, both of which 206 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: have borders roughly with Afghanistan, which is not a small place. 207 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: Afghanistan is the size of Texas, with a population of 208 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: forty million. It's an important strategic location. And so for 209 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: both of those reasons, neither of which outcome is good 210 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: for the United States. I have continued to have the view, 211 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: I think shared by many of my contemporaries that we 212 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: should maintain the small footprint we have there now for 213 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: strategic leverage to keep pressure on the Taliban. You know, 214 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: there's a reason that Taliban aren't getting in their little 215 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: SUVs and driving into Kabble and Hurrah and Condus. The 216 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 1: reason they're not is because they can't, because it's not 217 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 1: because of twenty five hundred American troops. It's because of 218 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: three hundred thousand Afghan troops. And if we continue to 219 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: fund the Afghan troops, and I would argue give them 220 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 1: a minimal level of training, support, intelligence, aviation, that would 221 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: be a better outcome than either of the two strategic 222 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: potentials that you and not just discussed. However, we are 223 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 1: where we are. The President has decided to pull the 224 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: Americans out, NATO will follow, and therefore what we ought 225 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: to do is try and counter the strategic scenario of 226 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 1: China coming in and taking over. The way we do 227 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: that is that we become the funders of the Afghan 228 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 1: security forces. We have contractors who are capable of doing 229 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: the kind of training, typically post military individuals. We have 230 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 1: a very strong CIA presence. Don't envy Bill Burns, the 231 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 1: Director the CIA is risk posibilities. We have a strong 232 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: diplomatic component. We try and support the NGOs, and we 233 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: try and provide a balance to China going forward. Both 234 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: of those I think are going to be very difficult 235 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: outcomes for us to manage. One of the things that 236 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 1: strikes me, and you can touch upon this to some 237 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: extent in your novel where right now pulling the other 238 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: a map of every port in the world where the 239 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: Chinese have a major presence, and it is a stunning 240 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: expansion of their reach. It seems to me they're virtually 241 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: competitive with us, and not in power projection yet, but 242 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: in the acquisition of soft power assets literally almost everywhere, 243 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 1: including when we were in Italy they announced I think 244 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: that the three largest ports in Italy we're all going 245 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: to be run by the Chinese. And if that had 246 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: happened in the Cold War with the Russians, we would 247 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: have gone crazy. But it was just business as usual 248 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: and COVID had overwhelmed everything and so forth. But as 249 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: a navy guy, how concerned are you about the expansion 250 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: of Chinese capacity to compete with us in maritime affairs 251 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: around the planet. Well, you're the one with the PhD 252 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: in history, and so I know you know who. Alfred 253 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: Thayer Mahan was the famous naval strategist who roughly one 254 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: hundred years ago, one hundred and twenty years ago, developed 255 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: a theory of sea power. And I explored this in 256 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: depth in a previous book. That I wrote called imaginatively 257 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: enough Seapower The History and Geopolitics of the World's Oceans. 258 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: Mahand called this he was absolutely correct that for a 259 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: global power like the United States is and China aspires 260 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: to be, and the United Kingdom of his day was 261 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: a critical element is supplies logistics, control of ports. In 262 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: those days coaling stations. Ships ran on a coal that 263 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: idea of linking together a maritime network around the world, 264 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: backing it up with warships that can then hopscotch where 265 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 1: they will, and exerting political influence and diplomatic influence in 266 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 1: all of these nations. Originated with the Brits, was highly 267 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 1: developed by the United States in the twentieth century, and 268 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: certainly China has been reading Alfred Thayremahan. In my view, 269 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: and to answer your question, we are to be very 270 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 1: concerned about it because it's smart strategy. It worked for us, 271 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: it will probably work for them, and we got to 272 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: get out there and compete. In nominal terms, the Chinese 273 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: navy is now larger than ours number of ships, but 274 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: I don't know enough to know whether in capability that 275 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: that translates it into an ability to go toe to 276 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: toe with US. But what's your sense about the quality 277 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 1: of their ships, and as you project out ten or 278 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: fifteen years, to what degree are they going to be 279 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: a genuine peer competitor at maritime control. Let's do the history. 280 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: When I graduated from Annapolis, I would have graded them 281 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 1: in F. They were a coastal navy, driving around and 282 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: rusted out Soviet Union cast offs. By the time I 283 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 1: was a one star admiral, around the time of nine 284 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: to eleven, they were up at about A sea. Today 285 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: they are at B. I would score us still in 286 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: a Our capabilities exceed us significantly at China. But here's 287 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: an important point. We are manned, we are deployed, We 288 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 1: are trained with the US Navy to fight globally. China 289 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 1: is becoming better and better and better at that inclose 290 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: littoral fight in and around the South China Sea, the 291 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: East China Sea, maybe a little bit expanded beyond what's 292 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 1: called the first island chain. But they are bringing more 293 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: ships of a pretty good quality, not quite as good 294 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: as ours, but they would outnumber us significantly, and it 295 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: would be in a small constrained area. Now we have 296 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: other advantages. We have bases, allies, long range air our 297 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: submarines overmatch them significantly. Our satellite systems are better, so 298 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: I'd call it not quite toe to toe. If you 299 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 1: ask me, as a fighting admiral, which fleet would I 300 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: rather have, I'd take the US fleet. But it's going 301 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: to be a near run thing, as the Duke of 302 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: Wellington said about the Battle of Waterloo, certainly over the 303 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 1: course of the next ten years, as they improve. Hence 304 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: the date of the novel twenty thirty four, that's roughly 305 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,360 Speaker 1: when I think parody will be achieved militarily by China. 306 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting because this leads me to go 307 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: in two directions. One to go back to the Napoleonic Wars. 308 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,959 Speaker 1: It's Nelson who says, numbers annihilate a lot of our 309 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: greatest military victories. If you look at the Israelis, or 310 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:17,919 Speaker 1: you look at the Royal Navy, or you look at 311 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: some of our cases. Is to be able to mass 312 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,920 Speaker 1: at the key point overwhelming force, and therefore you win, 313 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: even though the other guy might have been, in theory 314 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 1: capable of it. The two places it seems to me 315 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: that we will first encounter this problem are the South 316 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: China Sea and the Straits of Taiwan. My sense as 317 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 1: a civilian observer is that we would have a much 318 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: harder time in both places than the Navy currently wants 319 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: to admit. They keep designing clever strategies, but cleverness tends 320 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,239 Speaker 1: to break down at the point of contact. Are you 321 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: concerned that if again rapidly escalated into a nuclear war 322 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 1: or a world war of a non nuclear capabilities but 323 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: in terms of those two sectors, that they may be 324 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: able to amass, certainly by twenty thirty four, and probably 325 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 1: in the streights of Taiwan even today, overwhelming capacity to 326 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: at least have area denial. Yes, and don't take my 327 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,120 Speaker 1: word for it. You know, I retired several years ago. 328 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: The current commander of US Indo Pacific Command that, if 329 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: you will, the NATO commander of the Pacific is Admiral 330 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: Philip Davidson. Good friends, somebody I've mentored for years, And 331 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: phil testified in front of Congress three weeks ago that 332 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: he foresees a potential conflict, a potential attempt by China 333 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: to militarily conquer Taiwan within the next six years. Many 334 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: of my friends who read twenty thirty four, a novel 335 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 1: of the next World war, have said him, great book. 336 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 1: You got everything right, but you got one big thing wrong. 337 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: The date. It's coming a lot sooner. And to answer 338 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 1: your question, yes, can China mass at a specific point 339 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,160 Speaker 1: and that will matter. Numbers matter. As Nelson told us, 340 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 1: I think it was Marx. This is often ascribed to 341 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: him anyway, that quantity has a quality all its own. 342 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: But let me give you another point to worry about, 343 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: and that's technology. What about advances in Chinese technology, in 344 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence, in cyber in stealth, in space. And you 345 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: pulled us back to the Napoleonic Wars. I'm going to 346 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 1: take you back another four hundred years. Let's go to 347 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 1: Agin Court, where a high tech French force, wearing the 348 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: most capable armor of the day, the state of the 349 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: art technology, goes splashing across a muddy field. This, of course, 350 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,640 Speaker 1: is immortalized in Henry the Fifth by Shakespeare, and they 351 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,439 Speaker 1: are slaughtered, slaughtered in their numbers by a bunch of 352 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: English long bowmen. The French had failed to see that 353 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: their technology, their exquisite technology, had been overtaken. Could that happen? Yeah? 354 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 1: And I worry about that more than I do about 355 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: mass at a given point, Although certainly we can worry 356 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,360 Speaker 1: about both of them. Both of those cautionary tales are 357 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 1: explored in twenty thirty four. Your book actually led me 358 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: to go back to the drawing board, if you will, 359 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: And because the fascinating thing about Egencoorpt is it is 360 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 1: the third defeat of French cavalry by the Welsh or 361 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 1: English longbow, and all three battles in some ways are 362 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 1: very similar. You have very heavy cavalry on the French side, 363 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 1: and the social structure of the French system made it 364 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: impossible to adapt. And I once went back and read 365 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,640 Speaker 1: all three battles in a short period of time to 366 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:05,360 Speaker 1: try to get in my head the parallelisms. And I'm 367 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 1: working on a paper that's in fact was triggered by 368 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: your book, which is that underneath all this, if you 369 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 1: think in the long run, beyond say a decade, you 370 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: have to think about the national capabilities, both in terms 371 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 1: of technology, procurement, the culture, the education system. And I've 372 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 1: just had finished reading a six volume a series of 373 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 1: novels on the first year in the Pacific in terms 374 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: of air power, and you look at this period where 375 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 1: initially we're at a huge disadvantage, but by the end 376 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: of the first year, we're beginning to mass our capacity, 377 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 1: the ability to train pilots beyond what the Japanese can do, 378 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 1: building the P thirty eight to offset certain advantages that 379 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 1: the zero head as a fighter plane at high altitude, 380 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 1: the gradual, steady improvement of the B seventeen as a 381 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 1: weapon delivering mass destruction for that generation's time. But it 382 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 1: hit me, I don't know that we could mobilize like that, 383 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: and I don't know that our education systems producing people 384 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:13,639 Speaker 1: capable of being mobilized. And so it strikes me that 385 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: in a way, your challenge to the system is actually 386 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: to rethink the bureaucratic cultures and the way they approached 387 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 1: their mindset about this and recognize that that history doesn't 388 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 1: necessarily have to follow the way we've been trained. You've 389 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: got it exactly right. And going back to that World 390 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: War Two moment, let's go to December seventh, and what 391 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 1: gets sunk. It's the battleships. That's probably the best thing 392 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: that could have happened in the sense that enforced us 393 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: to break the paradigm. Grab the carrier for us, which 394 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 1: was quite small at that point and luckily not in 395 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 1: Pearl Harbor at the time of the attack and begin 396 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: to put our focus on air power, and by the 397 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,440 Speaker 1: time of the Battle of Lady Gulf late in the war, 398 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:11,439 Speaker 1: you see Ray, Spruance and Bull Halsey moving air power 399 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 1: back and forth, not without missq's not without mistakes, but 400 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: it's this overwhelming tide and it's happened because we have 401 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: been forced to seize the new and that was airpower. 402 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: The question I think in this twenty first century is 403 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 1: what is the new? And it may very well be cyber, 404 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 1: And of course you explored EMP in one of your novels. 405 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:42,439 Speaker 1: It may be that cyber is effectively an electromagnetic pulse 406 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: level weapon that can go at the homeland. But before 407 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 1: you would use it in that strategic sense, it may 408 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:54,479 Speaker 1: well be used tactically against our forces in the field. 409 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 1: And that's a scenario that's explored, as you know in 410 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 1: twenty thirty four. I am old enough. I actually used 411 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 1: to study Soviet doctrine when they were the major proponent, 412 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 1: and their army practiced fighting without radios because their intent 413 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:32,199 Speaker 1: was to blanket the battlefield and drown our radios. And 414 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 1: we finally had to in the nineteen eighties come to 415 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 1: a realization that we were relying on systems that were 416 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 1: fine in peacetime, but if you actually intended to use 417 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: them in a wartime, they weren't going to work. And 418 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 1: I've always been a big fan of Sunsu and then 419 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: of Mausi Dung's rendering of Sunsu. And if they got 420 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 1: into a real tense situation with US, I would expect 421 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 1: their entire first round to be nonviolent to find ways 422 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: if they think think they have an overmatch at artificial 423 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 1: intelligence or an overmatch with cyber And that's where I like, frankly, 424 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 1: the way in which you use shielding so that we 425 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,439 Speaker 1: literally can't find them. And I think some people who 426 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 1: criticize you for that had no clue what they were 427 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,880 Speaker 1: talking about. That you get into a world where we're 428 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,160 Speaker 1: relying on a certain range of electric magnetic spectrum and 429 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: they figure out a way to block that the same thing. 430 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: Of course, it's true logistically if they just take out 431 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 1: our ability to find airfields absolutely reality and coming sooner 432 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,440 Speaker 1: than you think. And there's a reason in the book 433 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: twenty thirty four, the first aircraft you see is a 434 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: super tricked out eighth generation joint striped fighter, and the 435 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: last airplane you see is an old beat up bucket 436 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: of bolts, an old F eighteen hornet. The point is 437 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 1: you got to have the exquisite technology. You can't ignore 438 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,480 Speaker 1: the ad but you better have a plan B if 439 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 1: that exquisite technology fails you and put it in another way. 440 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: When I was a midshipman at Annapolis in nineteen seventy six, 441 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: they taught us how to use a sextant and we 442 00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 1: navigated ships on paper charts. By the time I was 443 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: the captain of a destroyer twenty years later, hey, that 444 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 1: was basically gone. You know. There might have been a 445 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 1: sextant sitting in a closet somewhere, but everything was electronic. 446 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 1: Today the Navy is back to teaching midshipman how to 447 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: navigate with a sextant and how to use the paper 448 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: chart because you got to have a plan B. I 449 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 1: remember there was a point, I think it was in 450 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 1: the eighties when a Soviet Fox Beat defected. It was 451 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 1: their highest performance fighter plane, and we were startled because 452 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 1: it had vacuum tubes. But the reason, I think in 453 00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 1: retrospect was they expected to go to EMP and they 454 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: expected to take out all of our aircraft on day 455 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: one because they would have burned out, but the vacuum 456 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 1: tubes wouldn't have There are permutations here that are amazing. 457 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 1: One other zone, if I could just for a minute, 458 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 1: we began a fairly large NATO exercise, I assume designed 459 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 1: as a signal to the Russians. Isn't one of our 460 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 1: challenges that you could in fact end up with a 461 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 1: Russian Chinese collaboration that would be very close to an 462 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 1: overmatch even now, Oh absolutely, and again in twenty thirty four. 463 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 1: That's exactly what our predicate is. And by the way, 464 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 1: I would throw into that mix, mister speaker Iran. I 465 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 1: think Iran is going to continue to be very troublesome, 466 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 1: and we already see them drawing closer and closer to China. 467 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 1: But let's stay on Russia and China for a moment. 468 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 1: It's like that old movie Jerry McGuire. They complete each other. 469 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 1: Here's a nation, Russia with a declining population, vast land 470 00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: mask huge natural resources in terms of raw materials. China, 471 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 1: on the other hand, has a huge population, is actually 472 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 1: quite geographically confined. Neither nation has many other allies. They're 473 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:21,560 Speaker 1: both authoritarian, and that is a sort of natural kind 474 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: of pairing that's growing closer and closer together. Throw out 475 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: one caveat, which is that if I were advising Vladimir 476 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: Putin and the Kremlin, I'd be saying, mister president, be careful, 477 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:37,240 Speaker 1: be careful what you wish for in this relationship with China. 478 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 1: Because China looks at Siberia, this vast land mask the 479 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,720 Speaker 1: size of the United States of America. It only has 480 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: twenty five million people. So take the population greater New York, 481 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 1: that's it, and just spread it around so nobody lives there, 482 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:58,959 Speaker 1: and it's full of what oil, gas, arable land, fresh 483 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 1: water on the tier timber rare, arth, Steinmond's gold. China 484 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: looks at that like my dog looks at a riby steak. 485 00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 1: It looks really good. And I think Russia is on 486 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: its way to becoming a junior partner in that relationship. 487 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 1: Aren't they likely to gradually accept Chinese economic penetration while 488 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 1: trying desperately to avoid Chinese political control. Yes, and they 489 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: will fail. They'll be forced to accept the former, and 490 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 1: they'll have to live with the ladder. The other part 491 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 1: of that, this really requires us to really fundamentally restructure 492 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 1: how we think about national security. One of the things 493 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 1: you talk about is the notion that they would close 494 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 1: down electricity and cities, they would close down at ATMs. 495 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 1: The shooting war hasn't started, but there's a lot of tension, 496 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 1: and their first signal is, let's say just to cut 497 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:02,000 Speaker 1: off ATMs. I'd be very curious how long the American 498 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,360 Speaker 1: public would tolerate that and whether their reaction would be 499 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 1: cut a deal or go to war. And I think 500 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 1: there'd be a huge fight internally between people who say, look, 501 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 1: we can appease them, we can get past this, and 502 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 1: by the way, I want my money, and the group 503 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 1: that would say, you know, I'm not gonna let them 504 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: bully us. It'll just get worse. I'd rather fight. But 505 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,680 Speaker 1: my sense is we have a huge failure of imagination 506 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,800 Speaker 1: and how we do our education program for the military, 507 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,200 Speaker 1: the kind of war games we fight. I remember years 508 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 1: ago they used to fight the North Atlantic at the 509 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 1: Global War Game at Newport, and they would never lose carriers. 510 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,320 Speaker 1: When Reagan came in, one of the things I got 511 00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 1: involved in was nagging them to actually won lose carriers, 512 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 1: and they would always stop the game at about day 513 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 1: twenty four and have some miraculous negotiated deal. So I 514 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 1: got them to agree that they could lose carriers and 515 00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 1: that we had to fight the game out to something 516 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: like five and they finally came to me after two 517 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,160 Speaker 1: years of doing this, insisted I come up and play 518 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 1: president for a week. And as you remember, Harry Train, 519 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:13,440 Speaker 1: who was a great, very aggressive, very innovative four star admiral, 520 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,120 Speaker 1: was my military advisor, and he said to me after 521 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,799 Speaker 1: the game was over, he had deliberately advised me to 522 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,720 Speaker 1: do the most radical things I could think of, because 523 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 1: he wanted the five hundred people who were watching the 524 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 1: game to realize you could end up with the president 525 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 1: who's very aggressive and as the top of the chain 526 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:36,800 Speaker 1: of command. There was some strong pushback to some of 527 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,839 Speaker 1: the things I did, but I think the same thing 528 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,439 Speaker 1: ought to be true today. They should have to think 529 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,160 Speaker 1: about games that involved Russia, Iran, China. They should have 530 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,840 Speaker 1: to think about games that never go kinnectic, that in 531 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,880 Speaker 1: fact and fought out in a series of very powerful 532 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:56,719 Speaker 1: technological ways that are aimed at crippling the civilian economy 533 00:34:56,840 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 1: or crippling the capacity of the culture to function, and 534 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,759 Speaker 1: that would open up a huge Pandora's box of having 535 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 1: to rethink our national security investments in our requirements. I 536 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 1: completely agree. And by the way, in one of those 537 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 1: nice little circles of life, four Star Harry Trane. His 538 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:19,800 Speaker 1: daughter Elizabeth Traine, is now a two star admiral and 539 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 1: an intelligence officer, and by all accounts, is someone who 540 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: pushes the system constantly. That's great, yeah, isn't it. I'm 541 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 1: going to go look her up now. That'll be fun. 542 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:34,720 Speaker 1: Her father was a remarkable mentor to make for years 543 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,880 Speaker 1: on a whole range of topics involving the military, and 544 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 1: also just a really good student of human beings and 545 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,640 Speaker 1: leader of people. I never met him, he has precisely 546 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 1: the reputation he just described. Well, he's the kind of 547 00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 1: guy who when he finally retired, walked the Appalachian Trail 548 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:55,359 Speaker 1: to clear his head. You know, just said I'm gonna 549 00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:57,600 Speaker 1: take six months off and go walk the trail. It 550 00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 1: was great. I can't tell you how much this has 551 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 1: been and how great it is to reconnect after all 552 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,440 Speaker 1: these years. And I do hourage everybody listening to us 553 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,439 Speaker 1: to get twenty thirty four, a novel of the next 554 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,440 Speaker 1: World War. I think you will find it as sobering 555 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,640 Speaker 1: and as much a call to action as I did, 556 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,920 Speaker 1: and I think it's a significant contribution to our ability 557 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:25,920 Speaker 1: to really rethink where we are and sort of reset 558 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,800 Speaker 1: the system to be prepared for the wars of the future, 559 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,759 Speaker 1: not the wars of the past. Jim, thank you for 560 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 1: taking time out of your extraordinarily busy schedule to share 561 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,560 Speaker 1: these ideas with us, mister speaker. What a pleasure. And 562 00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,399 Speaker 1: I remember you as President of the United States when 563 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 1: I was just a young officer, and let me tell you, 564 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,080 Speaker 1: there were many in the audience who said, we hope 565 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 1: that comes true. Well, thank you. It was a great experience. 566 00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 1: It's a pleasure to me with you, sir. Thank you 567 00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 1: to my guest, Admiral James Davridis. You can get a 568 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 1: link to order his new book twenty thirty four, a 569 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,920 Speaker 1: novel of the Next World War, on our show page 570 00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 1: at newtsworld dot com. Newts World is produced by Gingwichtree 571 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:15,839 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Debbie Myers, our 572 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:20,600 Speaker 1: producer is Guarnsey Sloan, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 573 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,240 Speaker 1: Your work for the show was created by Steve Penley. 574 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,440 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingridge three sixty. If 575 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,600 Speaker 1: you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple 576 00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 1: Podcast and both rate us with five stars and give 577 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,560 Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about. 578 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,080 Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can sign up for my 579 00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:47,799 Speaker 1: three free weekly columns at gingwichte sixty dot com slash newsletter. 580 00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,840 Speaker 1: I'm Newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld