1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 2: South Africa's stock market looks set to end the year 3 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 2: well higher than twenty twenty four. 4 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: Under the new government, we have seen a really welcoming 5 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: tone for a private investment in the country. Business sentiment 6 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: is up, so there is a real change and the 7 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: stock market is very very attractive. 8 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 2: A better than expected budget and a more stable power 9 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 2: grid has helped inject a vote of confidence into the 10 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 2: country and hopes that faster growth might follow. 11 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 3: I think we are in a sweet spot. I've covered 12 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 3: the continent personally for over ten years and I haven't 13 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 3: seen a better time for South Africa. 14 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll look 15 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 2: at what's behind South Africa's economic turnaround, how long investor 16 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 2: confidence might last, and what the outlook could be for 17 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. I'm tia Auta bio in for Jennifer's 18 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 2: Abasage and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you 19 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 2: one story each week from the continent driving the future 20 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 2: of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. 21 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: Joining me this week is ivonn Mango, Bloomberg Economics Africa Economist. 22 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, for coming on the podcast. 23 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. 24 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 2: So let's start with some of the key figures here. 25 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 2: How have South African stocks fared this year compared to 26 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 2: other countries. I know we've seen a surge in mining 27 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 2: profits and that has been driven by some buoyant commodity prices, 28 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 2: but across the board wats the picture. 29 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 3: So we've seen stocks surge amid a weaker US dollar, 30 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 3: rising commodity prices as you've mentioned, as well as reforms. 31 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 3: The benchmark Equity index is up almost fifty in dollar terms. 32 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 3: That's quite significant. Resource stocks were of course boosted by 33 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 3: surge in commodity prices, particularly precious metals, which is what 34 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 3: the South Africa squats. More recently, we'll see and investors 35 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 3: rotating out of resources into banks and telecommunication, so you've 36 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 3: seen diversification there and that's also been supported by earnings 37 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 3: growth that you're seeing out of companies falling boring costs. 38 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 3: We've had interest rates to drop by one hundred and 39 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 3: fifty basis points since September of twenty twenty four, and 40 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 3: of course easing tariff tensions have also helped on the 41 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 3: banking stock side. Investors are attracted by high dividend yields 42 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 3: as well as relatively low price earnings ratios. We've seen 43 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 3: Emptyn Group, which is Africa's biggest wireless carrier of course 44 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 3: headquartered in South Africa, that firm has benefited from rising earnings, 45 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 3: also helped by improvement in earnings in countries such as 46 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 3: Nigeria and Garner. 47 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 2: So what's triggered this rally and what's happened to really 48 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 2: build this confidence that we're seeing in South Africa. 49 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 3: So firstly, globally, we've seen monetary easing take place, in 50 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 3: particular US rates dropping. That's helped renew interest in emerging 51 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 3: market assets, which of course include South Africa. It's also 52 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 3: helped that we've seen a surge in commodity prices, as 53 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 3: South Africa is a big exporter of commodity, so that's 54 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 3: helped in terms of its improving terms of trade. Those 55 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 3: are external factors that have helped South Africa. On the 56 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 3: domestic front, we've also seen some developments. In October, South 57 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 3: Africa was removed from the Financial Action Task Forces list, 58 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 3: and that's in response to authorities stepping up efforts to 59 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 3: combat money laundering as well as terrorist financing. So basically 60 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 3: a demonstrated an improvement in governance, which is very positive 61 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 3: for the financial sector. We've also seen fiscal consolidation taking 62 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 3: place faster than anticipated due to revenue overruns this particular year. 63 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 3: That implies that the debt to GDP ratio may actually 64 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 3: peak this year and we may start to see debt 65 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 3: falling as soon as next year. That's something the government 66 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 3: has been trying to achieve for several years and it's 67 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 3: in sight. 68 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: Yeah. 69 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 2: I mean, one of the key themes in terms of 70 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: Boomberg reports about this topic has been the change in 71 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 2: government expenditure. For one, that curbed expenditure, which we've seen 72 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: what other changes have there been on the government side 73 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: That really makes for a more positive picture about the 74 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 2: South African economy. 75 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 3: So the formation of the Government of National Unity last 76 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 3: year has also injected some optimism within the economy. We've 77 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,839 Speaker 3: seen business confidence improved, which has helped. One of the 78 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 3: upsides of this coalition government is we've actually seen inadvertently 79 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 3: competition between government ministers. As you know, the ministers from 80 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 3: different parties and they're all trying to undo or most 81 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 3: of them at least I do each other in terms 82 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 3: of reforms, and that's been to the benefits of the economy. 83 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 3: So when it comes to for instance, staff for Home 84 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: Affairs Minister, who has been modernizing the immigration system making 85 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 3: it easier from tourists from big markets like China to 86 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 3: come to South Africa and also making it easier for 87 00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 3: the issuance of nomad visitors. That's attracted a group of 88 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 3: migrants that contribute to the economy. Those are some of 89 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 3: the changes we're seeing under this administration. The other thing 90 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 3: the Government of National Unity has done is injected new 91 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 3: thinking into the whole budget process, you may call. Earlier 92 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 3: this year the reading of the budget had to be 93 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:20,799 Speaker 3: suspended because of disagreement around the proposed increase in value 94 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 3: add attacks. In the end that was scrapped. The argument 95 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:28,279 Speaker 3: from coalition partners was that they wanted to see other 96 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 3: strategies used to reduce the budget deficit. So, as you mentioned, 97 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 3: part of that was to bring down spending, particularly inefficient spending, 98 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 3: and that's exactly what we've seen. We've seen fiscal restraints. 99 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 3: So that new thinking has helped provide new impetus in 100 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 3: terms of fiscal consolidation, bringing down the budget deficit, reducing 101 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 3: borrowing and bringing down. 102 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 2: Debt Okay, stick with me, Ivon. When we come back, 103 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 2: we'll talk more about the outlook for twenty twenty six 104 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 2: and what investors will be looking for to sustain this rally. 105 00:05:58,360 --> 00:05:59,160 Speaker 3: We'll be right back. 106 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 2: Welcome back today on the podcast, we're looking at South 107 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 2: Africa's economic turnaround. Our Africa economist Ivon Mango is still 108 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,359 Speaker 2: with me. What's on the horizon for South Africa that 109 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 2: investors will be watching closely. 110 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 3: So the one thing that's still missing is growth. So 111 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 3: the positive news and we saw we're GDP data out 112 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 3: this week showing an expansion of zero point five percent 113 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 3: in the economy. That was from the third quarter. One 114 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 3: of the upsides is that we've seen four straight quarters 115 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 3: of growth. We haven't seen that in a few years. However, 116 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 3: growth remains pretty weak and investors will be waiting to 117 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 3: see whether the stretch of growth, the longest stretch of 118 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 3: growth we've had since twenty twenty one, will be extended 119 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 3: going into twenty twenty six. So that's one thing they'll 120 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 3: be looking for. Another will be whether that growth will accelerate. 121 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 3: And we're coming from growth rates of around five point 122 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 3: six percent in twenty twenty five. For our estimate for 123 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 3: this particular one point one percent. But really what we're 124 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 3: trying to do is see for South Africa's growth returned 125 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,119 Speaker 3: to its long term average of two percent. We haven't 126 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 3: had growth of that amount aside from the rebound after 127 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 3: the pandemic, we haven't seen growth of around two percent 128 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 3: and above for over a decade, so that's one thing 129 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,679 Speaker 3: investors will be looking out for. They'll also be looking 130 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 3: towards the twenty twenty six budget that will be read 131 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 3: in February. They'll be looking to see whether the targets 132 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 3: for this year were met and that there was no slippages, 133 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 3: which we don't anticipate. They'll also be looking to see 134 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 3: whether fiscal consolidation remains on track and the government is 135 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 3: continuing to pursue that particular strategy, which we anticipate. The 136 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 3: third thing I think they'll be looking for in twenty 137 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 3: twenty six is the local government elections that will for 138 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 3: some time in second half of the year. A date 139 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 3: hasn't been provided, it should be between August and November 140 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 3: of twenty twenty six. That may possibly be the biggest 141 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 3: test of the cohesive of the Government of National Unity, 142 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 3: and as I mentioned earlier, that has been a big 143 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 3: reason we've seen improvement in investor confidence as well as 144 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 3: some of the reforms. So many investors will want that 145 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 3: to continue beyond twenty twenty six. 146 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 2: And I suppose the elephant in the room here maybe 147 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 2: is the South African US relationship. We've talked a lot 148 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 2: about it on Bloomberg platforms, these tensions between the Trump 149 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 2: administration and South Africa, the removal of some aide as well. 150 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 2: How much has that already been priced in? 151 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 3: So I guess on the upside, Tariff uncertainty has eased 152 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 3: since the thirty first of July when the United States 153 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 3: announced their tariffs for all their trading partners, So that 154 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 3: uncertainty we had earlier in the year in terms of 155 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 3: where we'd land is now gone. So we're now working 156 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,719 Speaker 3: with the tariff that we've been given by the United States. 157 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 3: That said, South Africa has been assigned the highest tariff 158 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 3: on the continent of around thirty percent. Most companies had 159 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 3: tariffs of around ten percent, so that is punitive. That said, 160 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 3: the impact on GDP is expected to be relatively small. 161 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,079 Speaker 3: Our estimates at Bloomberg Economics is that the GDP at 162 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 3: risk is zero point three percent of GDP over the 163 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 3: medium term, of course, for the particular sectors that we're 164 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 3: export into the United States, including the automotive sector as 165 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 3: well as the citrus and wine industry in the agriculture sector, 166 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 3: those particular subsectors will be hard hit, But overall GDP 167 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 3: will anticipate the head to be a lot smaller than 168 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 3: it would be, for instance, for Asian countries such as 169 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 3: Vietnam and Cambodia. There's always a risk that the relationship 170 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 3: could deteriorate. We've heard in recent days that the United 171 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 3: States has disinvited South Africa from next year's G twenty meetings, 172 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 3: which will be held in Miami. South Africa has opted 173 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 3: not to fight that and just to sit out next 174 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 3: year's meeting and resume in twenty twenty seven when the 175 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 3: United Kingdom assumes the presidency of the G twenty. 176 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 2: And you know, we've talked about growth as an important indicator, 177 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 2: that this is a real turning point to what extent 178 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 2: is this a story of recovery rather than our performance? 179 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 2: And how long do you think it will be until 180 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 2: we see South Africa start to exceed its previous position 181 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 2: and build on that. 182 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 3: The recovery will be slow so I don't think we 183 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 3: should expect to see growth over two percent anytime soon. 184 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 3: That said, i'll speak to what's encouraging. So the growth 185 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 3: number that came out this week for third quarter showed 186 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 3: that gross fixed capital formation has started growing again. Growth 187 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 3: fixed capt information, which is essentially investment, had declined for 188 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 3: three straight quarters before the third quarter of twenty twenty 189 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 3: five data came out, So it's encourage you to see that. 190 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 3: We think that's in response to the recovery in house 191 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 3: of consumption. The fact that this demand returning to the 192 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 3: economy means businesses are now willing to step up a 193 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 3: capital expenditure and invest in the economy. But also we 194 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 3: think reflects the fruits of ongoing reforms on the logistics 195 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 3: front as well as ecrisity sector, which have eased the 196 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 3: bottlenecks in the economy and encouraged investors to come back 197 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 3: and into the economy and spend on capex. So that 198 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 3: is encouraging and that's what we'll be watching going into 199 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. Expect that to increase. We do expect 200 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,959 Speaker 3: this longest stretch of growth we've had since twenty twenty 201 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 3: one to persist into twenty twenty six and over the 202 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 3: next three years expect growth to pick up dauran one 203 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 3: point eight percent. So yes, it's a recovery, but we're 204 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 3: not going to shoot the lights out anytime soon. We're 205 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 3: not going to reach the regional average growth rate of 206 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 3: four percent for SUBSA in Africa anytime soon. But at 207 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 3: least it's an upward trend. 208 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, upwards indeed. And just to finish ivon as an economist, 209 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 2: your perhaps Christmas list of indicators that you'd like to 210 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 2: see from the South African economy in twenty twenty six, 211 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 2: just to know that things going in the right direction. 212 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 2: If you could make a list, what would be your 213 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 2: top three? 214 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 3: So girl will be right up there, in particular that 215 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 3: it's being driven by investment. Would like to see investment 216 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 3: return to the economy. Will be watching what's happening in 217 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 3: terms of the reforms on the logistics front, particularly allowing 218 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 3: for operators onto the rail system and proving competition there. 219 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 3: We'll be also looking to see our inflation fares. As 220 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 3: I've mentioned, the anchor has been lowered and the test 221 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 3: for the Center Bank will be to keep inflation close 222 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 3: to that three percent level going forward, and that of course, 223 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 3: a real reflection of the credibility of the shift interest rates. 224 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 3: I think there may be scope for further red cuts. 225 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 3: I mentioned the policy rate has been dropped one hundred 226 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 3: and fifty basis points since September of twenty twenty four. 227 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 3: I think the scope for probably a couple more red 228 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 3: cuts in twenty twenty six, So that's something be watching. 229 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 3: An important one is probably unimportant, as you're probably aware, 230 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 3: one third of the labor force does not have jobs. 231 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 3: While we have seen some moderation of the jobless rates 232 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 3: in the recent quarters, it's still quite high. We hope 233 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 3: to see the jobless rate drop below thirty percent in 234 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. That will bring it to levels that 235 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 3: we've last seen before the pandemic. 236 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: And you can read all our coverage on South Africa's 237 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 2: economy across Bloomberg platforms. Now Here are some other stories 238 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 2: we've been following across the region. This week, Vodacom, Groups, 239 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 2: South Africa's biggest mobile operator, agreed to take control of 240 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 2: East Africa's largest telecommunications provider, Saffracom, in a deal valued 241 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 2: at about two point four billion dollars. Safracom's stock surged 242 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 2: on the US and Tanzania's President Samye Suluhu Hassan accused 243 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 2: foreign powers of a colonial attitude for condemning deadly violence 244 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 2: that marred her reelection in October. The United Nations has 245 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 2: called for an investmentstigations, saying hundreds of people may have 246 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 2: been killed by security forces firing on protesters. You can 247 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,439 Speaker 2: follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter, 248 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 2: or put a link in our show notes. This program 249 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 2: was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow and 250 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 2: review this show wherever you usually get your podcasts. 251 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 3: I'm to you at a baio. Thank you for listening.