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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity.

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Speaker 2: I know of his information.

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Speaker 3: Wouldn't you agree?

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Speaker 1: I know five dollars?

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Speaker 2: This is a rasing, a lesson how many tackle hit

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Speaker 2: one man.

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Speaker 1: You're saying, humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans

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Speaker 1: need fantasy to be U my goodness, that's good.

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Speaker 2: Best, relentless, refusing to give up?

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Speaker 3: All right, hit that horn very less. Welcome to the

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Speaker 3: Fantasy Flex Props Podcast, The Week seven Seed, presented by

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Speaker 3: Prize Picks. I'm your host Chris Raybond George as always,

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Speaker 3: But my dude, Sean Kerner, John, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Not much? Happy Thursday. It's so weird not having Thursday football.

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Speaker 2: I was just mentioning that we're gonna just have a

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Speaker 2: massive Sunday slate for us this week, so can't wait

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Speaker 2: to dive in.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and we'll get to our top ten prom of

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Speaker 3: the week. But before we do that, let's start with

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Speaker 3: the Sunday night football showdout s late. We've got the

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Speaker 3: Vikings going to Green Bay for a rematch with the Packers.

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Speaker 3: Vikings beat him earlier this year. The line of six

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Speaker 3: and a half the total forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: Could be some cold weather in this game, John, what

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Speaker 3: do you think of a captain spot for this late.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like there's gonna be sub zero weather

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Speaker 2: at lambeau Field, believe it or not, in you know,

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Speaker 2: late December. I'm not sure if there's supposed to be

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Speaker 2: any wins or anything, but that would certainly add to

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Speaker 2: the concern. But I think that you know, slay like

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Speaker 2: this were DeVante Adams, Justin Jefferson. I love using wide

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Speaker 2: receivers in the captain slot, and you know, we have

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Speaker 2: two elite ones here. I think given the weather, it

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Speaker 2: might be kind of sneaky to pivot to these running backs. However,

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Speaker 2: there's some uncertainty. You know, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon

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Speaker 2: are sort of splitting work right now. I think this

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Speaker 2: could be a sneaky AJ Dillon game, but I can't

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Speaker 2: use in the captain slot. So I think Aaron Jones

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Speaker 2: might be sneaking in the captain slot. And Dalvin Cook

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Speaker 2: as well, but he's you know, he's dealing with some

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Speaker 2: conditioning issues falling COVID, so I can't really commit to them.

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Speaker 2: So I think I'm probably gonna be stuck with DeVante

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Speaker 2: Adams and Justin Jefferson. My captain Slaugh, how about you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm still gonna cook. Like I think

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Speaker 3: if anyone's scared, like it's just I'm just gonna use

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Speaker 3: them more. Like this guy, what did he last time

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Speaker 3: he sat out a game? He came he came back

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Speaker 3: and ran for two hundred and five yards and he

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Speaker 3: wasn't even supposed to be active in that game.

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Speaker 2: The shoulder injury. Yeah yeah, but.

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Speaker 1: I mean like shoulder, lung.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's all the same for Dalvin Cook, He's

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Speaker 3: he's just nasty.

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Speaker 1: I'll definitely have a lot. But I agree.

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Speaker 3: I think, you know, the weather is going to kind

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Speaker 3: of maybe make these teams a little more run heavy.

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Speaker 3: That's not really I don't think a reason to pivot

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Speaker 3: away from DeVante. I do think Jefferson could be a

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Speaker 3: little riskier than usual because two well two reasons. One,

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Speaker 3: Adam the wn's out so with and now obviously defenses

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Speaker 3: get to hone in a little more on a guy

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Speaker 3: like Justin Jefferson. But number two, I saw in the

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Speaker 3: transaction while that the Packers activated Jaira Alexander from you know,

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Speaker 3: you know he was he was out for pretty much

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Speaker 3: almost the whole season and He's an excellent cornerback, a

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Speaker 3: true kind of number one shutdown guy. So if they

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Speaker 3: have him back into any capacity, it could make it

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Speaker 3: hard for Jefferson, especially in this weather. And we saw

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Speaker 3: how poor the Packers run defense was a week ago.

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Speaker 3: So I still win cook over over Jefferson for the Vikings,

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Speaker 3: and it is it's all about Devon se for the

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Speaker 3: you know, for the captain spot for the Packers. I

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Speaker 3: think you know, Jones seems to have taken retaken that

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Speaker 3: lead back role. They kind of said they were using

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Speaker 3: him or saving him for this part of the year,

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Speaker 3: So I think Jones is still the guy for me

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Speaker 3: if I'm going with the running back in this in

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Speaker 3: that spot, he also gets more of the receiving usage.

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Speaker 3: So I'd say if you're making Jones lineups and you

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Speaker 3: enter a lot like a bunch of multi lineup you

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Speaker 3: know kind of thing, then you pivot to some with

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Speaker 3: with Dylan an accounting spot as like a hedge. But

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Speaker 3: if I'm just picking one of the other, I'm still

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Speaker 3: going with Aaron Jones.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he certainly has a higher ceiling. And uh

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Speaker 2: so they get Jerry Alexander back this week hopefully, and

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Speaker 2: then is David Bucky Are you gonna make his season debut.

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen much news. I know he's questionable. Have

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Speaker 2: you heard more about that, because that's huge for Aaron Jones.

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Speaker 3: If I let's see, I can only go by the

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Speaker 3: practice reports, so let's yeah, I know he was. I

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Speaker 3: feel like he's been nearing a return for about a

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Speaker 3: month now. Yeah, he's still He was a d MP

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Speaker 3: on on Wednesday. You don't have the report for Thursday yet.

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Speaker 1: I would. I would guess they hold him. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers are fine to me.

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Speaker 3: You know, it doesn't like they go like four deep

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Speaker 3: at their tackle spot now. It's like I think Dennis Kelly.

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Speaker 3: I believe it was started last game. You know, they

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Speaker 3: had a bunch of injuries. Nieman I think started too.

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Speaker 3: So it's just, you know, it's next man up for

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Speaker 3: the Packers. I don't think they rush him back. So

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Speaker 3: the fact that he didn't start the week, I mean,

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Speaker 3: it is a Sunday night game, but I would I

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Speaker 3: think he's on the wrong side of questionable.

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Speaker 1: At least he's listed his question.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it makes makes sense just you know, him back

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Speaker 2: to the playoffs would be massive, and it's incredible how

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Speaker 2: well the Packers have played without some of their best players.

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Speaker 2: They might even get a guy like Zadarius Smith back

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Speaker 2: for the playoffs too, so they're getting all their guys

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Speaker 2: healthy just in time for the playoffs. I agree they

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Speaker 2: probably do hold him out here, but again, if he

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Speaker 2: does debut, that's that's gonna only boost up my projection

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Speaker 2: for both Jones and Dylan.

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Speaker 3: Yeah all right, what about the like KeyKOS, the other

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Speaker 3: guys you like a little further down, you know, kind

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Speaker 3: of filling out your line up in the flex spots

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Speaker 3: with Well, I.

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Speaker 2: Always say this, anytime MBS is on a one game slate,

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Speaker 2: you have to consider him just his deep blay threat.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: The weather, you know, obviously could impact him here. But

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Speaker 2: again we're just shooting for massive upside here, so we'll

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Speaker 2: have some MBS lineups. I think people pivot towards Allen Azard,

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Speaker 2: you know, who looked great last week. I think his

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Speaker 2: roster ship will be maybe a little too high here,

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Speaker 2: so you know, NBS is great play as always. I

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Speaker 2: think our guy Josiah Deguara. Uh, you know, when you

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Speaker 2: look at the Packers depth chart, it looks like Mercedes

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Speaker 2: Lewis and Tyler Davis round the COVID list, so it

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Speaker 2: might be just Daguara and Dafney potentially. So he's been

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Speaker 2: getting some usage. I you know, I had the over

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Speaker 2: on his player Proplastics. I was watching him pretty closely.

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Speaker 2: He's out there running route sometimes lined up out wide. Uh,

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Speaker 2: he's getting work, but it just hasn't showed up, you know,

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Speaker 2: in a in a big way yet. But he could

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Speaker 2: have a big game here, especially with the weather. They

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Speaker 2: might you know, throw underneath a bit more so Love Deguara,

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Speaker 2: you know, on the Viking side, with you know, Adam

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Speaker 2: feeling out, I think, and Tyler Konklan banged up. I

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Speaker 2: think KG Osborne is a sneaky blow up spot here.

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Speaker 2: I think his roster ship will be pretty high. But

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Speaker 2: I'm going to try to be overweight on Osborne. I

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Speaker 2: think this is a good game for him. And then

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Speaker 2: I just I agree with you with Dalvin Cook. The

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Speaker 2: guy's a beast. I never want to bet against him,

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Speaker 2: but I might sneak in just a couple Alexander Madison

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Speaker 2: lineups just because I agree the shoulder injury. He's a

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Speaker 2: tough guy. He know he played through that. But these

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Speaker 2: guys coming back from COVID like Tyreek Hill last week,

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Speaker 2: he was pretty limited. They said he was exhausted, he

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Speaker 2: had to come out. Sounds like Mike Evans is sort

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Speaker 2: of dealing the same thing. And even Dalvin Cook to

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Speaker 2: a certain extent. So in cold weather, you know, a

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Speaker 2: lung condition like COVID. I think, you know, finally if

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Speaker 2: we might find something out limits Dalvin Cooks. I think

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Speaker 2: Alexander Madison might be a sneaky, cheek code kind of play.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think the running backs are always sneaky

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Speaker 3: on these kind of slates because if the guy gets injured.

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Speaker 3: But like, I don't think they're going to come into

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Speaker 3: the game saying we're going to give Dalvin Cook Weston

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Speaker 3: like ninety percent.

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Speaker 1: No, no, like Zimmer's coach for his job like the Chiefs. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: of course you could take Tyreek kill up. When when

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Speaker 1: you're up thirty to three.

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Speaker 3: And and you've run what nine games in a row. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: if you're the Vikings, you're literally fighting for your playoff

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Speaker 3: lies against the division rival that you you did beat

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Speaker 3: the first time. So but now you're on the road

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Speaker 3: like this is this seems like an all in type

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Speaker 3: of situation.

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Speaker 1: You know, for the for the Vikings.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it could still end poorly, but I don't

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Speaker 3: think they can come into the game saying like we're

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Speaker 3: gonna split the rest. I could be wrong, but I mean,

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Speaker 3: I just it just doesn't seem like a Mike Zimmer

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Speaker 3: thing like they've in that game where he was like

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Speaker 3: questionable and then he plays anyway.

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Speaker 2: It's like, you know, just like I agree with you

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent, but like you said, you always made

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Speaker 2: a great point. When you set these lineups kind of

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Speaker 2: tells a story. And I think that we were both

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Speaker 2: gonna have to play the defenses on the slate.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I can see Dalvin No that the Packers defense.

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Speaker 2: That's oh right, yeah's defense against Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: I agree, yeah, but you could.

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Speaker 2: You could totally see Dalvin Cook, you know, have a

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Speaker 2: twenty five thirty our rush temp get down to the

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Speaker 2: one and you know he's winded. He has to come

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Speaker 2: out real quick. Alexander Madison comes and gets his ulter touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Like That's what I'm thinking here. I don't think they're

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Speaker 2: gonna split work. I'm just saying he could sneak in

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Speaker 2: a couple like high leverage kind of plays here. Just

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Speaker 2: to slay like this, Like you said, backup running backs

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Speaker 2: and more valuable. But I'm not envisioning a fifty to

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Speaker 2: fifty split by any stretch. But there might be some

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Speaker 2: plays where Dalvin Cook has to cap out because he's

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Speaker 2: winded or something.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna play some some of my guys, CJ zams

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Speaker 3: that he likes.

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Speaker 1: Oh you have to you.

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Speaker 3: Got to like he like, if Cook takes a reason,

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Speaker 3: they'll probably.

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Speaker 1: Just hand it to ham Yeah, just a spite man. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that that does kind.

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Speaker 3: Of fire the team up, though, Like anytime CJ. Hamm

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Speaker 3: does anything on offense, the whole team gets fired up.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, outside of Kyle ust Check, CJ. Hamm is

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Speaker 2: probably the highest fullback projection we give week to week, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: like a couple of touches.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a dying I hate that announcer cliche though,

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Speaker 3: And I'm like, oh, if the fullback does in fact

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Speaker 3: still exist in then from football week, like anytime a

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Speaker 3: fullback does anything like on offense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well yeah, fullbacks they're still here.

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Speaker 3: Like all right, we know, let's get into the props. Sean, uh,

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Speaker 3: start us off with your quarterback prop.

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Speaker 2: So I'm sticking out the same prop I gave it

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Speaker 2: earlier in the week that that's Josh Allen over two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty five and a half passing yards against

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Speaker 2: the Falcons. I mentioned earlier in the week that I

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Speaker 2: wanted to get on this early before you know, Cole

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Speaker 2: Beasley Gabe Davis might return off of these updated updated

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Speaker 2: COVID produc And sure enough they're returning this week and

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Speaker 2: the line hasn't moved. I don't know why this is

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Speaker 2: an easy matchup, of course, against the Talcians twenty ninth

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Speaker 2: ranked pass the DVA defense, and Josh Allen doesn't really

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Speaker 2: let up when they're up big, so I know they're

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Speaker 2: favored by what's fourteen here, It doesn't matter. Josh Allen's

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Speaker 2: usually still slinging around, running around late in the game,

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Speaker 2: so I'm not too worried about gamescript here. So I'm

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Speaker 2: still projecting him around two seventy here. I think we're getting,

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Speaker 2: you know, fifteen yards of value. So I love the

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Speaker 2: over two hundred and fifty five and a half yards

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Speaker 2: for Josh Allen here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was surprised I didn't go up a little

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Speaker 1: more too.

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Speaker 3: I know that the Falcons, I mean, I think their

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Speaker 3: average point differential against you know, teams above five hundred

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Speaker 3: is like minus twenty five or something like that. So

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Speaker 3: maybe it's the gamescript, but I was surprised I didn't

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Speaker 3: climb a little higher as well. For me, I'm going

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Speaker 3: Jayalen Hurts over one hundred and eighty nine and a

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Speaker 3: half passing yards against Washington. Hurts has been over this

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Speaker 3: in eight of fourteen games, and he had two hundred

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Speaker 3: ninety six against Washington a couple of weeks ago. I

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Speaker 3: think that another spot where people may be concerned about

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Speaker 3: game script. But the Eagles are on the road, and

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Speaker 3: in the Action Network app, we have tracked seven sharp

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Speaker 3: moves on Washington here. So just because the Eagles are

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Speaker 3: three and a half point favorites doesn't necessarily mean that

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Speaker 3: they're just going to control this game. We've seen them

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Speaker 3: start slow the last couple of weeks against their division rivals,

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Speaker 3: the Giants Washington. So I think one way or another,

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Speaker 3: whether it's due to sheer efficiency or just because it's

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Speaker 3: a tight game and both teams have to kind of

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Speaker 3: go back and forth, I think it Hurts gets over

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Speaker 3: this for a night's time in fifteen starts.

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Speaker 2: I'm crazy and stick with your Trevor LARTs from earlier

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Speaker 2: in the week.

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Speaker 1: Drop fifteen yards. I mean, the last thing I want

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Speaker 1: to do is like give it out.

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Speaker 3: Twice and then people like lose on the second one.

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Speaker 3: You know what I mean, because I'm I'm I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: be honest, I'm not hitting it again, like hit it.

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Speaker 1: I hit it the first time.

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Speaker 3: And and I didn't hit it again.

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Speaker 1: But by the way, I forgot to text you.

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Speaker 3: You know, we usually text each other the are second

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Speaker 3: half praft. But I was like rushing to get in

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Speaker 3: the shower because I had gone to the gym before

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Speaker 3: the game. But I hit a five play again and

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Speaker 3: the fifth thing that had a hit was Ian Book

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Speaker 3: over like seventy two yards or something, and he got

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Speaker 3: like seventy six.

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Speaker 2: So that's a pretty bold pick. I thought we might

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Speaker 2: see Blake portals, but yeah, I think that Turvor Lawrence

279
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Speaker 2: the line drop. But still, I've been watching so many

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Speaker 2: Driver games still fink. He goes like, yeah, I don't know,

281
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Speaker 2: I watched almost every game. No I do, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm surprised he goes over one fifty. But yeah, I

283
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Speaker 2: love the Hurts call as well. I know that when

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Speaker 2: it comes to like rushing projections for quarterbacks, you factor

285
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Speaker 2: in scramble rate, and he hasn't been scrambling as much obviously,

286
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Speaker 2: you know, the ankle injuries messing him in with a bit.

287
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Speaker 2: So he's only rushed ten times the past two games combined,

288
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Speaker 2: so you know, his his passing projection s to go up.

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Speaker 2: So I'm with you here. Usually I'm projecting hurts, you know,

290
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Speaker 2: round the one to eighty five range, but I think

291
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Speaker 2: this is a game where we could project them a

292
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Speaker 2: little bit over two hundreds. I'm in agreement with you

293
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Speaker 2: on this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and yeah, the scrambler rate kind of it affects

295
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:05,719
Speaker 3: both the rush and the pass attempts because if he

296
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Speaker 3: scrambled last, Yeah, that does increases because I kind of

297
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Speaker 3: start with dropbacks, you know, and then yeah from there,

298
00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,320
Speaker 3: all right, where are you going for your first running

299
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:13,839
Speaker 3: back prop?

300
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Speaker 2: So the rest of the way, I'm going with unders

301
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,400
Speaker 2: my comfort zone actually, So I'm going with Cordella Patterson

302
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,360
Speaker 2: under forty two and a half rushing yards against the Bills.

303
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,600
Speaker 2: You know, he's struggling with late. He hasn't top twenty

304
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,800
Speaker 2: yards each of the past two games. You know, is

305
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:31,880
Speaker 2: he's starting to break down He's never really been a

306
00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:34,760
Speaker 2: worker's kind of running back, so you know he could

307
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,719
Speaker 2: be breaking down. Head coach Arthur Smith even said a

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00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:41,560
Speaker 2: couples ago he's planning on limiting veterans like Patterson down

309
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Speaker 2: the stretch, so we could be seeing that. And you know,

310
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Speaker 2: like I just mentioned in the Josh Allen prop, this

311
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Speaker 2: is a game where the Bills should dominate throughout. You know,

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00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,439
Speaker 2: their two touchdown favorites here, so this isn't really a

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00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,199
Speaker 2: run heavy game script, So maybe they get cordial Patterson

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Speaker 2: involved in the past game. You know, they've kind of

315
00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 2: turned away from him in that regard over the past

316
00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,760
Speaker 2: few game. So you know, Melily, I'm projecting Patterson right

317
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,760
Speaker 2: around this range, but late in the season, when you

318
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Speaker 2: know teams are starting to limit bets like him, I

319
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 2: kind of go beyond my projections the bet. So I

320
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,120
Speaker 2: just think he's more likely to have a four game here,

321
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Speaker 2: especially against the stout defense like the Bills. So love

322
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,880
Speaker 2: the under forty two and a half rushing yards for Seapat.

323
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's weird because his snaps, his snap rate hasn't

324
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Speaker 3: really gone down. You know, it's the last two weeks

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Speaker 3: of that too, highest since Week hen his snap counts,

326
00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:33,680
Speaker 3: you know, not the percentage. You know, twenty five last

327
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,680
Speaker 3: week was his lowest in about a month, so you know,

328
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Speaker 3: they're probably trying to win with the snaps. Maybe that

329
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Speaker 3: twenty five to the thirty range is what I'm thinking.

330
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Speaker 3: So yeah, and that offensive line just isn't getting any

331
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Speaker 3: push and he's become that between attackers runner. Now we're

332
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Speaker 3: seeing Davis have more success because they've almost flip flop.

333
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:50,080
Speaker 1: Rolls a little bit.

334
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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's like, I hate betting under my

335
00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,120
Speaker 3: guy Patterson. I've tried to go over and it hasn't

336
00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,600
Speaker 3: worked out the last I think a couple of weeks.

337
00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,360
Speaker 3: But uh yeah, I can't argue with it. It's just

338
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,480
Speaker 3: the line doesn't look good. He doesn't look good. He's

339
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Speaker 3: getting the goal line carry.

340
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Speaker 1: That's about it.

341
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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's fantasy.

342
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:09,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're in fantasy. I think.

343
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Speaker 3: You know, he's still I think like an RB twenty

344
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,520
Speaker 3: in that range for me, you know, it's.

345
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Speaker 2: Close to he's nearing that start decision where yeah, before

346
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:20,440
Speaker 2: he's been like a rock solid RB one for most

347
00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 2: of the season, but yeah, now he's kind of on

348
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,200
Speaker 2: that sit start cusp during Finals week, which is rough.

349
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I mean after watching that Isaiah McKenzie tape,

350
00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,080
Speaker 3: he can't let him. He can't let McKenzie won up

351
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:31,640
Speaker 3: him like this. You know, he's got to go back

352
00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:32,160
Speaker 3: in the fold.

353
00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 2: Yep.

354
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,600
Speaker 3: I'll stick in the same game and go Devin Singletary

355
00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 3: over fifty and a half rushing yards against the Falcons.

356
00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 3: He's played over eighty percent of the snaps you know,

357
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,920
Speaker 3: total in total in the last three games, so he's

358
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,800
Speaker 3: really taking control of that lead back role. The numbers

359
00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,840
Speaker 3: haven't always been there because they played that game against

360
00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 3: Tampa where he was out there a ton, but they

361
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,960
Speaker 3: just didn't run the ball. So this game fourteen and

362
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 3: a half point favored at home against the Falcons. This

363
00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,600
Speaker 3: is a spot where I think it's a extremely run

364
00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,560
Speaker 3: Heavy's averaging seventeen carries per game in his last two

365
00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:05,720
Speaker 3: so I think he should be able to clear this

366
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 3: pretty easily with little margin. I have him in the

367
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 3: mid sixties for this game, given the projected game script

368
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 3: and all that.

369
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 1: So Singletary over fifty and a half.

370
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that one. It doesn't really correlate

371
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:18,520
Speaker 2: with my all and prop. I think both players go

372
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 2: over and you're swooping in on one of my one

373
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,400
Speaker 2: week to early props. Last week it was Josh Jacobs.

374
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,160
Speaker 2: So the week prior, you know, I loved over what

375
00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:28,760
Speaker 2: was it like fifty two and a half and he

376
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,800
Speaker 2: finished with fifty. The whole game was frustrating because he

377
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,160
Speaker 2: should have cleared that like easily, and then sure enough

378
00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 2: last week he rushed for what one thirty or something

379
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,160
Speaker 2: crazy like that. Last week I took singletary over forty

380
00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 2: one and a half, he finished with thirty nine, So

381
00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 2: you know, this week would not be surprised if he

382
00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 2: clears like eighty. So again I think I was one

383
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,400
Speaker 2: week too early. So congrats on swooping in on what

384
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 2: should be an easy win here with your second one.

385
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,640
Speaker 2: So I'm sticking with underws here, So going with under

386
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 2: fifty two and a half rushing yards for Saquon Barkley

387
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 2: against the Bears. You know, we kind of you know,

388
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,399
Speaker 2: built up our bankroll or only season by you know,

389
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,440
Speaker 2: betting on his unders. But late in the season, I'm

390
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,640
Speaker 2: sticking with it, and you know, my projection in mainly

391
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 2: again it's pretty close to this line. I'm around forty

392
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,199
Speaker 2: eight forty nine here, But again I think We're going

393
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 2: to see more of a floor game from him. We're

394
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 2: getting late in the season where we might see players

395
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,879
Speaker 2: like Barkley limited, and he's he's dealing with an ankle

396
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,080
Speaker 2: issue that's sort of limited him practice, so there's no

397
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,919
Speaker 2: reason for them to you know, give him fifteen to

398
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 2: twenty carries here. So I'm just banking on him having

399
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:37,879
Speaker 2: more of a floor game, and you know, they're going

400
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 2: to have some sort of combination of Jake from and

401
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,200
Speaker 2: Mike Lennon under center this week. It was not pretty

402
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 2: last week. You know, he kind of needs the offense

403
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,359
Speaker 2: to move them all a little bit to clear a

404
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 2: prop like this. So this this is in the game

405
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 2: script or I think it's gonna you know, be run

406
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,639
Speaker 2: heavy for too long. So I think, you know, this

407
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 2: is another thing where I'm just more attacking the floor

408
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 2: of Barkley being more likely this week. So under fifteen

409
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 2: half rush runs for Barkley here, and.

410
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 3: There's probably like even if he goes off for like

411
00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,640
Speaker 3: two hundred yards in this game, he like we could

412
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,240
Speaker 3: still take a victory lap for telling everyone not to

413
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 3: draft stay cal On Barkley. He's had four games this

414
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,400
Speaker 3: whole year where he's cleared ten half PPR points four

415
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 3: games all year.

416
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 1: That's like, and he's been healthy, you know, for what

417
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:22,359
Speaker 1: is it.

418
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 3: He's played in I think eleven twelve eleven games, he's

419
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 3: played in eleven games, he's missed four, and he's still

420
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 3: cleared ten points in half PPR and four So I

421
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 3: made cheese.

422
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, first round pick I.

423
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I didn't bring this up when I you know,

424
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 2: I was sitting there cuting the prop. I didn't bring

425
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,720
Speaker 2: it up. But he's only through this number like twice

426
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 2: three times all season.

427
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: Fifty two and a half.

428
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, three times all season. He's at fifty two and

429
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 3: fifty one and fifty. So it's it's close. But yeah,

430
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,600
Speaker 3: he's been he's Yeah, he hasn't been. There's no explosion there,

431
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 3: there's no explosion.

432
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 2: His biggest game of sixteen carries for sixty four yards

433
00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 2: on the ground.

434
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no there's no shouldn't I say explosion. It's

435
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 3: like acceleration. He just can't get away and make and

436
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 3: break those long ones anymore. That's at least not you know,

437
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 3: maybe it happens next year, it's not happening this year.

438
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:12,360
Speaker 1: All right.

439
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 3: For my second I'm going Joe Mixon over sixty four

440
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:16,960
Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards has been over this in

441
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:17,680
Speaker 3: eight to fifteen.

442
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 1: He averages seventy seven in Kansas City.

443
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 3: Their pass defense has improved drastically over these last couple.

444
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 1: Of months, but their run defense is still twenty first.

445
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 3: Cincinnati's at home, and they are another team drawing a

446
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 3: lot of sharp action, which I agree with. I'm gonna

447
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 3: be on Cincinnati this weekend as a home dog, so

448
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:38,440
Speaker 3: you know, you might look at it and say, they're,

449
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,639
Speaker 3: you know, five six point underdogs, bad game script, but

450
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,120
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be closer than that. They're

451
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 3: at home, and I think their game plan is going

452
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 3: to be, you know, whether that's you know, in theory true.

453
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 3: They're going to try to limit the time of homes

454
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 3: is on the field by controlling the time of possession

455
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 3: running the ball, and and they'll be able to because

456
00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,680
Speaker 3: defenses have to respect Burrow after the five twenty five,

457
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,160
Speaker 3: the cool five twenty five last week had the over

458
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 3: on the pod here. I wish I got double points

459
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:10,120
Speaker 3: for him doubling up the prop. But yeah, I'm going

460
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,919
Speaker 3: mixing this week over sixty four and a half. I

461
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 3: think that's gonna be the game play just a lot

462
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:15,680
Speaker 3: of Joe Mixing.

463
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree. I think the floor for his

464
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,720
Speaker 2: rush attempts has to be what seventeen eighteen and we

465
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 2: could see one of those patented like you know, twenty

466
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 2: nine to thirty rush attempts here because even earlier in

467
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 2: the season, when Jamar Chase is going up, they still

468
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 2: committed to the run game. So in this matchup, I

469
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 2: do agree. I think Cincinnati plus four plus three and

470
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 2: a half right now probably a good bet. So this

471
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,120
Speaker 2: this game's gonna be closer than people think. And yeah,

472
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: Mixing has a really high floor, so I like to

473
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 2: over here as well. It's plus five and a half

474
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 2: plus five and a half now, Oh yeah, I'm waiting

475
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,360
Speaker 2: for six like Stuck and I are just gonna wait

476
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 2: for the stick. I might have to steal this from

477
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 2: you on convince me.

478
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 1: Oh damn, all right, whatever, whoever gets to the docks.

479
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 2: Is the dock up yet? Yeah, I have to snake

480
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 2: it from me right now. Oh man, I've been able

481
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 2: to look into any games yet, so yeah.

482
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 1: Maybe, I mean, I mean that one definitely does stick out.

483
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know it's but but yeah, my point is

484
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 3: Mixing good bet to go over his prop. He's been

485
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 3: over it more than half the time anyway, And we're

486
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 3: going for your first receiving prop.

487
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 2: So I'm going Darnell Mooney under forty nine and a

488
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 2: half receiving yards against the Giants. So it sounds like

489
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 2: Alan Robinson is returning, he should be close to one percent,

490
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 2: and possibly Jake King Grant could return too, So that's

491
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 2: going to eat into Mooney's target share. And in a

492
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 2: game where I just mentioned, you know, we're gonna have

493
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 2: Jake from and Mike Glennon under center on the other side,

494
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 2: I don't really see the Bears getting in a situation

495
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: where they need to throw much. So I think here

496
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 2: they're going to just lean on the run game, their defense,

497
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 2: and possibly you know, Justin Fields will be under center,

498
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,360
Speaker 2: so usually that limits the passing projection for the Bear.

499
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: So all signs sort of point for Mooney, you know,

500
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 2: going under this. So I'm projecting this closer to forty

501
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 2: three and a half and love the under forty nine

502
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 2: and a half receiving arts for Darnell Mooney against the Giant.

503
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, it just seems like one of those ugly games.

504
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 3: They probably won't trail like they did against Seattle even

505
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 3: or you know, at home six point favorites the totals

506
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 3: like thirty seven, so shouldn't be a big passing type

507
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 3: of situation there. I'm going with Marvin Jones under forty

508
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 3: five and a half receiving yards against the Patriots. Talked

509
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 3: about this earlier in the week. He's been under this

510
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 3: more than half the time. New England's second in DVOA

511
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 3: against number one wide receivers. They're seventh against number two

512
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 3: wide receivers. So I'm projecting this under forty. You already

513
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 3: mentioned Trevor Lawrence. His number has come down, but Jones

514
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 3: hasn't yet, so I think you take advantage of that.

515
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 3: Because the way passing yards work is the last passing

516
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 3: yards the less of a percentage for each of the receivers.

517
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 3: So Lawrence's line drops by fifteen. That should tell you something. Jones'

518
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 3: line should not still be sitting here at the same number,

519
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 3: So I don't expect him to get a quarter of

520
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 3: the yardage. For Lawrence in a game where you know,

521
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 3: the Patriots probably look at him as the I have

522
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 3: to slow down the most. So Jones under forty five

523
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,360
Speaker 3: and a half. Yeah, yeah, I was giving you crap

524
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 3: earlier for not sticking with the lawrence. But you know,

525
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 3: at least that line went down fifteen yards. This one

526
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 3: should have gone down as well. Like you said, they're correlated,

527
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 3: And yeah, I think Marvin Jones is going to be

528
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 3: the player that Belichick tries to slow down. It could

529
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 3: be treadwell, but either way, Marvin Jones super super low

530
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 3: for here, more likely to hit his floor. So love

531
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 3: the under forty five and a half as well.

532
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 1: Belichick's never lost to a rookie quarterback at home.

533
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 2: Ever, I think that trend's going to continue this week.

534
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 3: Imagine it's like another nine to six Jaguar upset or

535
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 3: something like that.

536
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 2: Oh no, I don't think that's like it would surprise

537
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 2: me obviously this season, but I still don't think that's

538
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 2: going to happen.

539
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 3: Yeah. Now, the Patriots have that game against Houston and

540
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,719
Speaker 3: Davis Mills where they almost blew it. That Belichick, I'm

541
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 3: sure he's showing that film and like nothing else this week,

542
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: it's just.

543
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, he almost blew this game to this to Dave's.

544
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 2: Mill and they're coming off two losses, so I don't

545
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 2: think they're going to overlook the Jaguars here no way.

546
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: All right, last receivement problem, So.

547
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 2: I'm going with Terry McLaurin under fifty three and a

548
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: half receiving yards against the Eagles. So you know, he

549
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 2: hasn't cleared this since week eleven, and he hasn't seen

550
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: over twenty percent targets per rut run rate since then either.

551
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 2: Just you know, he's the clear cut number one pass

552
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: catcher in this offense, but they they're spreading it around

553
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 2: and this is a tough matchup. He should see a

554
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 2: ton of Darius slagh. It's a late season division game,

555
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 2: so I don't really see mclauran going over this. And

556
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: we're getting some conflicting reports. You know, Ron Rivera is

557
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: saying he wants to see Kyle Allen get some action

558
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: this week. Offensive corner Scott Turner's saying that's false. So

559
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 2: who knows what's going on there. But we could see

560
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 2: two quarterbacks play that's gonna hurt Terry McLaurin. So it's

561
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 2: it's just one of those things late in the season.

562
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,239
Speaker 2: I like attacking unders on a player like McLaurin, who

563
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 2: should be, you know, exceeding this every week, but for

564
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 2: some reason he isn't. So I'm projecting him closer to

565
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 2: forty five and a half and more likely to hit

566
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 2: his four here. So give me Terry mclorran under fifty

567
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 2: three and a half preceding yards.

568
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 3: Ron Rivera and Scott Turner are having a disagreement. They

569
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 3: should just settle it. The good old Washington football team,

570
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 3: wag just duke it out on the sideline.

571
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 1: To a duel or something.

572
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 3: You know, somebody punches somebody in the face, and then

573
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 3: we just go from there.

574
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 2: Going on over there.

575
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 1: Yeah.

576
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 3: For my last receiving prop, I'm going with my guy

577
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 3: Rob Gronkowski over forty nine and a half receiving yards.

578
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 3: I'm not panicking after two does he's going against the Jets,

579
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 3: they are dead last and DVOA against tight end. He's

580
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 3: still been over this in sticks out of ten games,

581
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 3: even with playing one game like hurt and weaving early,

582
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 3: and then another two we're the last two where.

583
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 1: He had under thirty yards. So you know this is

584
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 1: Variance's tight ends.

585
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 3: I expect him to be on the right side of that,

586
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: and I think this prop given the matchup, given the

587
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: absence likely of Evans alongside Godwin, I just think this

588
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 3: number is way too low here for the Bucks, who

589
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 3: are third and a half thirteen point favorites against the Jets.

590
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 3: You know, it's a it's a game where they're probably

591
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 3: gonna put up some points either way. They are five

592
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,400
Speaker 3: and zero against teams that currently have under six wins

593
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 3: this year, and they're putting up over thirty points a game.

594
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 1: I think Ron's gonna be a big part of that.

595
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 3: So Rob Gronkowski over forty nine and a half receiving yard.

596
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I like this one as well. And even

597
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 2: if Mike Evans returns, which it sounds like he might,

598
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 2: he could just be more of a decoy, which would

599
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 2: only help Gronk. And it seems like, you know, the

600
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: past couple of games when Gronk's been sort of the guy,

601
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 2: he's flopped. So I think if Evans returns, I don't

602
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 2: even think they would impact this. It might even help them.

603
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 2: So either way, I think Gronk bounces back here and

604
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,360
Speaker 2: clear is the over forty nine and a half yards

605
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 2: as well.

606
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,959
Speaker 1: The only way to like it's it's Brady.

607
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 3: It's you know, if Brady's on a COVID list, then

608
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 3: there's a problem.

609
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I like Gronk. God, really, you don't even

610
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: put that out in the universe.

611
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: Man. Imagine.

612
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's probably why they relaxed the protocols

613
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 3: like oh, God forbid, but especially.

614
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 2: Like playoff time, imagine super Bowl week something like that.

615
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 3: You'd have to just push the Super Bowl back really, yeah, Brady,

616
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 3: imagine I happened last year in Tampa, Like, oh, that would.

617
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: Have been Hopefully we get a clean Super Bowl. Let's

618
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 2: just put it that way. Long way to go to

619
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 2: UH to recap, so at quarterback can go with Josh

620
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 2: Allen over two hundred and fifty five and a half

621
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 2: passing yards. Then I'm going under forty two and a

622
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 2: half rushing yards for Cordell Patterson, and I'm going under

623
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 2: fifty two and a half rushing yards for sake on Barkley.

624
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 2: I'm going with darn Alamoney under forty nine and a

625
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 2: half receiving yards and Terry mccorn under fifty three and

626
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:35,679
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards.

627
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: There you go.

628
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 3: I'm going Jayleen Hurts over one hundred and eighty nine

629
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 3: and a half passing yards, Devin Singletary over fifty and

630
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 3: a half rushing yards, Jo Mix and over sixty four

631
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards, Marvin Jones under forty five

632
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 3: and a half receiving yards and Rob Gronkowski over forty

633
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 3: nine and a half receiving yards. Next up here in

634
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 3: the Fantasy flex to the segment we call the lead

635
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 3: entry with Shawn and I dive into the prive s

636
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 3: Picks app and compare our player projection for the props

637
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 3: to build some entry, John, what is your first prize

638
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 3: pick awed entry for today?

639
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 2: So I'm going with Josh Allen over two hundred and

640
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 2: fifty five and a half passing yards against the Falcons.

641
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: You know I mentioned this earlier in the week. I

642
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: wanted to get on early because I had a suspicion

643
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: that Cole Beasley and Gabe Davis We're going to be

644
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 2: able to return from the COVID list this week due

645
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: to the relaxed protocols. And sure enough that happened, but

646
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 2: the line stayed the same. So you know, I've actually

647
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 2: bumped up this projection from two to seventy to two

648
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 2: seventy five. I get that. You know, the Bills are

649
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 2: fourteen point favorites here. It should be, you know, an

650
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 2: easy win for them, but the Bills tend to lean

651
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,239
Speaker 2: on the pass No matter what, and this is an

652
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 2: easy matchup. The Falcons ranked twenty ninth and DBA against

653
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 2: the pass, so you know I'm still projection Josh Allen.

654
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: Closer are two seventy two seventy five yards here, So

655
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 2: give me the over two hundred and fifty five and

656
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 2: a half passing yards for Josh Allen.

657
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, two weeks in a row. Wait, in the game,

658
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 3: Bills are throwing, you know, adding to their lead.

659
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 2: That was a brutal, bad beat on the digs.

660
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: Anyway, I don't even want to talk about it.

661
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: I don't take their foot off their gas. That's the

662
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 2: whole point.

663
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 3: Hey, the week before I had the under forty four.

664
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 3: That last the last touchdown got to forty five. So

665
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 3: two weeks in a row, Josh Allen's arm has just

666
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 3: cost me money.

667
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 1: But I digress.

668
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 3: I'm going Marvin Jones under forty five and a half

669
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 3: receiving yards. This is the Patriots. This is Bill Belichick

670
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 3: against the rookie quarterback. They are number two in the

671
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 3: league in DVOA against top receivers and he's been under

672
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 3: this more than half the time already this season. So

673
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 3: I think they look at him as the guy that

674
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 3: you have to slow down the most. Not a lot

675
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 3: going on in Jacksonville, but Marvin Jones, you know, is

676
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 3: still their top receiver kind of by default.

677
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: On where are you going with your second prize pick

678
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: elite entry for today?

679
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: So I'm going with Saquon Barkley under fifty two and

680
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards against the Bears. He's only gone

681
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: over this number three times all season. In fact, his

682
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 2: highest rushing total of this season in sixty four. I

683
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: think you and I hit a home run by fading

684
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: him heading into drafts this year. You know, he's just

685
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 2: doesn't look like the same player obviously. You know the

686
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 2: situation around him isn't great with the Giants, and you

687
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: know they're going to be starting Jake Trama. Got Jake

688
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 2: Truma again this week? Yeah, that's Brama got That means

689
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 2: this is absolutely gonna hit. So we could see from

690
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 2: and glennon again this week. This Giants offense is a disaster.

691
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 2: There's no reason to be giving Saquon Barkley fifteen plus

692
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 2: touches in this game or the rest of the season.

693
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 2: So give me the under fifty teen and a half

694
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 2: rushing yards for Saquon Barkley.

695
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: I'll close it.

696
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 3: Up by going Rob Gronkowski over forty nine and a

697
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 3: half for steven yards.

698
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: He's going against the Jets.

699
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 3: The Bucks are down Chris godwins, so they still need

700
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 3: a receiver over the middle.

701
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: That's Gronk.

702
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 3: He is facing a Jets scene at thirty second dead

703
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 3: last in DVOA against tight ends. And he's been over

704
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 3: this in six out of ten games, even with the

705
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 3: two dugs and being hurt in another. So this is

706
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 3: still below the median outcome for Gronk at this number,

707
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 3: I have at about ten years higher, So over forty

708
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 3: nineine and a half receiving yards for Rob Gronkowski to

709
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 3: recap Seawn going Josh Allen over two hundred and fifty

710
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,719
Speaker 3: five and a half passing yards and say Kwon Barkley

711
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 3: under fifty two and a half rushing yards.

712
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 1: I'm going Marvin Jones.

713
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 3: Under forty five and a half receiving yards and Rob

714
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 3: Gronkowski over forty nine and a half receiving yards. As

715
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 3: a reminder, Prize Picks markets do move, so you want

716
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 3: to get on it quickly in order to lock in

717
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: the best numbers. If you have not created a prize

718
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 3: Pix account yet, check the link in our episode description

719
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 3: and they'll match your first deposit up one hundred dollars.

720
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 3: Or you can visit prize picks dot com and use

721
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 3: the promo code action ten.

722
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: That's actio N one zero.

723
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 3: All right, that's gonna do it for our Fantasy Flex

724
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 3: Week seventeen Props podcast presented by Prize Picks. That's a

725
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 3: lot of peas Jeez love you guys, Prize Picks foot

726
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: of all Things to sponsored.

727
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 1: It's a lot of PE's in there.

728
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: You can find us on Twitter, Sean at the Underscore

729
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 3: Odds Maker, me at Chris raybo On. You can find

730
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 3: it our fantasy content rankings projections at actionnetwork dot com,

731
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 3: and you can find our DFS content tools and models

732
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: at Fantasylabs dot com. You can also follow us in

733
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 3: the free award winning Action Network app, at the Underscore

734
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 3: Oddsmaker and at Chris Raybond, same as.

735
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 1: Our Twitter handles.

736
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 3: Oh don't forget to leave us a five star rating

737
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 3: and review on Apple or Spotify.

738
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: So next time, Happy New Year. We skipt this month