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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at Breaking Points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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Speaker 4: Good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points. I am not

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Speaker 4: Sager and Jedty, at least not that I'm aware of, Crystal.

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Speaker 3: You can confirm it firmed that check correct, Not Soccer

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Speaker 3: and Jeddy.

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Speaker 4: But he's often joined some weddings. He's a great wedding guest.

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Speaker 1: At that age where like apparently literally everyone he knows

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Speaker 1: is getting married.

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Speaker 3: So he had two different weddings this weekend.

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Speaker 5: Within like thirty six hours.

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Speaker 1: Crazy logistics to pull it off. So anyway, godspeed to Sager.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully the airline gods are blessing him as we speak.

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Speaker 1: We have so much to get you in the show.

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Speaker 1: I know I always say that, but it really is true.

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Speaker 3: Today.

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Speaker 1: We have so many guests and so many important stories

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Speaker 1: as you guys probably already know Hassan Estralla dead in

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Speaker 1: an Israeli airstrike. Treta Parsi is going to join us

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Speaker 1: to break down what all of that means and the

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Speaker 1: consequences may be. We've got the VP debate tomorrow. We're

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Speaker 1: going to be live streaming here with Emily Ryan and

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Speaker 1: soccer Shelby Talcott is going to join us to preview

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Speaker 1: what JD Vance's debate prep strategy has been. Specifically, our

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Speaker 1: election analyst Logan Phillips is going to be here with

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Speaker 1: a polling update to tell us what his model is

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Speaker 1: saying about where the odds stand for November. Hurricane Helen

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Speaker 1: caused just devastating damage, Biblical destruction they're describing it as

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Speaker 1: throughout from the Florida Panhandle up through Appalachia. Also spawned

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Speaker 1: a lot of conspiracy theories. So we're going to look

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Speaker 1: at the horror and what needs to be done there,

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Speaker 1: but also take a look at some of the more

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Speaker 1: deranged takes that we saw on of this hurricane. We

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Speaker 1: also have a Cornell student who is going to join

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Speaker 1: us who is set to be deported over his pro

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Speaker 1: Palestinian activism. And Emily was on with as de Client

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Speaker 1: over the New York Times, over with the fake news media.

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Speaker 3: How did that go?

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Speaker 5: It was fun.

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Speaker 4: We had a little conversation about Project twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: So I think we have a clip of that and

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Speaker 4: we can talk about it here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, all right.

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Speaker 1: So Hezela has now confirmed that their leader, now former leader,

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Speaker 1: Hassan Nosraala, was in fact killed in Israeli airstrike near

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Speaker 1: in Beirut. Let's go and put this up on the

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Speaker 1: screen with some of the details from CNN. Israel and

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Speaker 1: HESBLA both confirmed that on Friday. Ryan actually did a

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Speaker 1: fantastic breaking news segment with Mueen Rabani at a time

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Speaker 1: when we weren't certain, but they did that segment as

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Speaker 1: if because it looked very strongly like this was possible,

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Speaker 1: that killing Israel, That killing by Israel of Nostralla marks

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Speaker 1: a significant escalation, they say, in the conflict between Israel

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Speaker 1: and HESBLA, which has intensified in recent weeks. The same strike,

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Speaker 1: in addition to taking out in Nosraula and quite a

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Speaker 1: number of other individuals we don't have an exact death

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Speaker 1: count yet, also took out a senior member of Iran's

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Speaker 1: powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. So you know, to call

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Speaker 1: it a significant development is an incredible understatement. We have

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Speaker 1: some of the images of the bombings that have been occurring,

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Speaker 1: not just this particular bombing that took out Nosralla, but

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Speaker 1: Israel has ramped up the bombing of southern Bay Route

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Speaker 1: and southern Lebanon in general. We can put this up

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Speaker 1: on the screen so you can see some of the images.

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Speaker 1: This verse is actually a mom who was recording her

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Speaker 1: child doing cute kid things and then looks out the

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Speaker 1: window and this is the scene of destruction. This is

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Speaker 1: the aftermath of that bombing that killed Nostralla. The indications

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Speaker 1: I've seen is that they use some of those two

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Speaker 1: thousand pound bunker buster bombs based on this huge crater

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Speaker 1: and footprint, based on these sorts of images that you

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Speaker 1: can see.

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Speaker 5: This is VB.

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Speaker 1: Netanyahu in the US at the UN giving the go

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Speaker 1: ahead for this strike, the government of Israel releasing this image,

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Speaker 1: so obviously quite significant.

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Speaker 3: These are some of the Lebanese.

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Speaker 1: People who have been displaced now by this now new

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Speaker 1: military offensive and escalation here by Israel. And these are

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Speaker 1: some of the additional bombings. Because this is you know,

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Speaker 1: continued past Friday. These are some of the bombings that

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Speaker 1: have continued in Lebanon. And we also know that in

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Speaker 1: addition to this, they have bombed, begun.

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Speaker 3: Bombing Yemen as well.

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Speaker 1: I'll speak to that in a moment, but only just

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Speaker 1: you know, to get your reaction here off the top.

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Speaker 1: What do you see as the significance of this and

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Speaker 1: where things go from here?

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Speaker 4: Well, and obviously, what Israel wants to do is create

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Speaker 4: a buffer zone between northern Israel and southern Lebanon. They say,

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Speaker 4: reports say at least that they're hoping that it would

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Speaker 4: be twenty miles something like that, And so what you

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Speaker 4: would need to do in order to achieve that is

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Speaker 4: going to look like a lot more of what.

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Speaker 5: We're seeing on the screen right now.

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Speaker 4: And they want to has both started obviously bombing on

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Speaker 4: October eighth, and that's where I think it's like sixty

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Speaker 4: thousand in Israelis who are in northern Israel have been

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Speaker 4: living elsewhere since. And so what Israel wants to do

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Speaker 4: is bring that everyone who's been displaced back to northern Israel.

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Speaker 4: And in order to do that, they're trying to create

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Speaker 4: like a twenty mile buffer zone. So again, it's just

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Speaker 4: we're going to see a lot more of this to come.

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Speaker 4: There's no other way to put it.

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Speaker 1: Let's put a four, guys, let's skip ahead to a

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Speaker 1: four and put this up on the screen. This is

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Speaker 1: something that in Israeli official said to NBC. They said,

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Speaker 1: we decided to kill Nsuala after concluding he will not

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Speaker 1: agree to any solution that is not tied to ending

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Speaker 1: the war in Gaza. And I think that, first of all,

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Speaker 1: it's an extraordinary statement and you know, reveals a lot

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Speaker 1: that isn't exactly hidden about the Israeli government mentality, the

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Speaker 1: reason that Hasbillah has been engaged in this you can't

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Speaker 1: even really call it tit for tat because it's continued

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Speaker 1: to be, you know, quite one sided in terms of

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Speaker 1: the Israeli fire, Israeli's firing farm more rockets. But this

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Speaker 1: tit for tat exchange with Israel was all tied to

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Speaker 1: Israel's onslaught in Gaza. And so you know, this statement

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Speaker 1: is basically an admission that Hesla was willing to come

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Speaker 1: to terms, and we saw that when there was a

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Speaker 1: temporary ceasefire, has stopped firing rockets, and they were willing

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Speaker 1: to do that, but only if it was tied to

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Speaker 1: an end to the assault on Gaza, and since they were,

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Speaker 1: you know, unwilling to bend on that standard. In Ustrala

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Speaker 1: in particular was unwilling to bend on that standard. This

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Speaker 1: Israeli official saying we thought we had to take him out.

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Speaker 1: It reminds me of the decision also Emily to assassinate

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Speaker 1: Ismail Hania, who was the head of HAMAS and the

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Speaker 1: chief negotiator who actually, in the context of HAMAS was

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Speaker 1: much more open to this sort of you know, negotiated

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Speaker 1: ceasefire to end the Israelian slot in that territory in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: And so when you assassinate him, which happened in Tehran,

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Speaker 1: which was all an extraordity of provocation towards I Ran,

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Speaker 1: that means that now the top negotiator for Hamas is Yeah, yeah, son,

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Speaker 1: it'spin Wah, who is far more hawkish, who's seen as

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Speaker 1: being the mastermind behind the October seventh attacks. You obviously

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Speaker 1: won't come as any surprise to those who are watching

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Speaker 1: the show.

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Speaker 3: It's been quite clear for a while that VB.

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Speaker 1: Natanyahu is not interested in a permanent ceasefire, does not

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Speaker 1: see that as a goal and has systematically gone about

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Speaker 1: trying to make sure that there is no possibility of

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Speaker 1: that lasting ceasefire on the table.

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Speaker 3: And then, you know, the other.

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Speaker 1: Thing to say about this, quite obviously, is now you

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Speaker 1: have another provocation towards Iran. There have been multiple efforts

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Speaker 1: to try to draw them in more broadly to the conflict,

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Speaker 1: and you have an incredibly weak US government that while

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Speaker 1: they'll say, oh, we think only diplomacy is the answer,

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Speaker 1: at the same time, you know they back up Israel

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Speaker 1: no matter what they do, even at a cost of

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Speaker 1: many civilian lives.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 1: Very different for example, if you want to compare to

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Speaker 1: the very targeted operation that we used to kill Osama

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Speaker 1: bin La, very different approach here in terms of the

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Speaker 1: civilian civilian deaths and civilian infrastructure that has been destroyed

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Speaker 1: already in this exchange. And so it puts US, also

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Speaker 1: because of our week leadership, on the brink of a

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Speaker 1: terrifying escalation, terrifying broader war, and terrifying involvement of US

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Speaker 1: soldiers more directly, especially as we already have forty thousand

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Speaker 1: soldiers at least in the region.

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Speaker 4: The big question also, obviously is for what is accomplished here,

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Speaker 4: and there has been a lot of sort of hawkish

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Speaker 4: people over the last couple of days posting these fairly

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Speaker 4: stunning images of everyone in the Hesbaalah chain of command

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Speaker 4: who has been taken out by Israel.

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Speaker 5: Recently, Jared Kushner tweeted.

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Speaker 4: Something like Israel has killed more of people, more of

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Speaker 4: the people on America's most wanted list in the last

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Speaker 4: two days than America has in twenty years, and that's

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Speaker 4: been a huge line. What's interesting, though, is that reports

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Speaker 4: about the reconstitution of Hamas, for example, just since in

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Speaker 4: Jabal Yeah and other places in Israel, just since some

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Speaker 4: of the intense bombing late last year and early this year,

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Speaker 4: you didn't have to wonder. I mean, we're not going

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Speaker 4: to be talking about the hooties.

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Speaker 5: We're going to be talking about what comes out of

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Speaker 5: all of this.

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Speaker 4: People in Hesbola right now are recognizing Estralla as a

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Speaker 4: quote sacred martyr. This doesn't This may have a really

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Speaker 4: powerful effect on the chain of command, but we don't

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Speaker 4: know how significantly this actually wipes out the power of Hesbola.

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Speaker 4: How big of a set back this actually is for them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there seems to have been I think Ryan spoke

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Speaker 1: and you spoke about this previously. You know, Iran, after

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Speaker 1: Ismail honey Out was assassinated in their capital on the

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Speaker 1: eve of their presence inauguration, there was this expectation that

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Speaker 1: Iran will respond, right because I mean, you could imagine

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Speaker 1: if it was US and some you know, foreign dignitary

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Speaker 1: was in our capital and that's the way they see him,

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Speaker 1: you know, and he was assassinated under our nose before

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden was inaugurator, so Donald Trump was inaugurator. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you can imagine how we would respond, and they didn't.

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Speaker 3: Because they had this sense of.

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Speaker 1: What Israel wants, what our adversary wants us to do,

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Speaker 1: is to respond in an aggressive manner. And I think

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Speaker 1: it's been you know, a lot the same with hesbla

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Speaker 1: of they recognize that the game BBI was playing was

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Speaker 1: to try to draw them in to a massive escalation,

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Speaker 1: and so the sense was like, why give our adversaries

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Speaker 1: what they want. But at this point you're at a

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Speaker 1: position where it's like Israel is not gonna They're not

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Speaker 1: gonna stop, So you either just sort of like you know,

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Speaker 1: lay down and accept their dominance, or you escalate on

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Speaker 1: your own, you know, behalf or respond in some way

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Speaker 1: that leads further up that chain of escalation. And that's

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Speaker 1: kind of where we set right now. I saw a

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Speaker 1: thread from Arnaul Bertrand, who we've had on the show before,

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Speaker 1: that I thought was really interesting and something for everybody

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Speaker 1: to contemplate, like take out if you can, of your

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Speaker 1: mind who these specific plays are, and just think about

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Speaker 1: the moment that we sit at right now in global history,

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Speaker 1: which is we're at a pivot point where the post

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Speaker 1: World War two international order, led by the soul superpower

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Speaker 1: of the US is either dead or dying. And we're

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Speaker 1: burthing right now. What we're doing, what we're engaged in,

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Speaker 1: what we're allowing, what we're seeing, what's being accepted, those

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Speaker 1: are the things that are going to set the terms

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Speaker 1: of this next era. So right now, the terms of

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Speaker 1: the next era looks like, you know, indiscriminately bombing hospitals, schools,

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Speaker 1: refugee camps, taking out a thousand civilians to assassinate one adversary.

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Speaker 1: Those are the sorts of things right now. Those are

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Speaker 1: the precedents that are being set for what this new

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Speaker 1: era could look like. It also looks like in an

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Speaker 1: era where you know, you can just decide, Okay, I

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Speaker 1: want a buffer zone in Lebanon, so I'm just going

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Speaker 1: to take it. Right, i want a buffer zone in Gaza,

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Speaker 1: so I'm just going to take it. Or you could

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Speaker 1: look at the Russian you know, invasion of Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: They just wanted to take.

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Speaker 6: It like that.

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Speaker 1: Those are the sort of precedents that are being laid

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Speaker 1: down right now that have broader reach. And that's not

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Speaker 1: to undermine like the specifics for the horror for the

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Speaker 1: human beings who are involved right now, but have broader

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Speaker 1: reach even than just this conflict in this moment. And

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Speaker 1: you know, that's part of why a lot of times

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Speaker 1: people ask like, oh, well, why do you care so

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Speaker 1: much about this one thing? I think his threat helped

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Speaker 1: to explain in a way I haven't been able to fully.

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Speaker 3: Elucidate why it feels like this is such a pivot.

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Speaker 1: Point and why it matters so much when you do

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Speaker 1: have the world sort of declining superpower tacitly agreeing and

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Speaker 1: then affirmatively shipping the arms to create a new order

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Speaker 1: in which it's not like we have fully lived up

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Speaker 1: to the World War II commitments of civilians being off

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Speaker 1: limits and you know, territorial integrity, et cetera. But where

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Speaker 1: those things are completely swept away and it's just the

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Speaker 1: sort of law of the jungle might mix right, you

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Speaker 1: can do whatever the hell you want as long as.

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Speaker 3: You've got the guns and the weapons to accomplish it.

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Speaker 4: I actually think that's what's fascinating about this entire post

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Speaker 4: October seventh conflict. And it was a huge through line

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Speaker 4: of the pre October seventh conflict as well. But it's

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Speaker 4: the countries that were the thought leaders in the post

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Speaker 4: World War two order, the people who were It's always

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Speaker 4: been the case, I mean since the last one hundred years,

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Speaker 4: the people who were saying what we're going to do

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Speaker 4: now is different. We are not going to have more dresdens.

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Speaker 4: We are not going to have more We are going

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Speaker 4: to protect civilians. And the countries who have wielded international

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Speaker 4: law as a sort of realist tool, as a nationalist tool,

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Speaker 4: as a tool of power, rather than as a sort

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Speaker 4: of moral standard. You have this like unevenness in countries

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Speaker 4: like the United States, where a lot of people in

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Speaker 4: public polling look at what's happened since October seventh and

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Speaker 4: are like really disgusted by what Hamas did, and they're

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Speaker 4: really disgusted by the Israeli response. Yeah, people want to

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Speaker 4: live up to something better. It's just the government of

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Speaker 4: the United States will invoke international law when it's putin

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Speaker 4: and then sort of dance around it and say, well,

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Speaker 4: it's not really legitimate in this case when it's in

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Speaker 4: Israel and it's this, it's Israel challenges the United States

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Speaker 4: fundamentally to whether our leaders actually believe what they wield

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Speaker 4: as a tool against other countries.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean even just the you know, the booby trapping

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Speaker 1: of walkie talkies and pagers right and causing them to

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Speaker 1: this is this is an infiltration of the civilian supply chain.

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Speaker 1: And not only were there some civilians who were among

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Speaker 1: those who had these booby trapped devices, but it's definitionally

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Speaker 1: indiscriminate when you cause these things to explode when people

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Speaker 1: are at the market at home with their kids holding it.

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Speaker 1: And this was not just like accepted, This was celebrated,

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Speaker 1: and I thought it. I found it quite no worthy

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Speaker 1: that Leon Pinetto's former director of the CIA, etcetera, etcetera,

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Speaker 1: and not normally someone I make common cause with, sounded

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Speaker 1: an alarm about that. And said, effectively, we're opening Pandora's

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Speaker 1: box here, and by any definition, this is terrorism. And

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Speaker 1: so again, those are the sorts of precedents that are

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Speaker 1: being set right now. As this wasn't just accepted, this

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Speaker 1: was celebrated by effectively the entire US political elite, whether

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Speaker 1: it be Democrats or Republicans, with a just a small

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Speaker 1: handful of much derided exceptions. So you know, we are

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Speaker 1: authoring right now. We're authoring the world that we're all

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Speaker 1: going to have to live in. And that's that's part

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Speaker 1: of why, you know, I find what's happening so troubling

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Speaker 1: and so horrifying. I want to go back to the

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Speaker 1: very latest. I saw a headline this morning that we're

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Speaker 1: all preparing. So far these have all been air strikes.

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Speaker 1: There's an expectation in Israel has announced that they're likely

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Speaker 1: to go forward with a full ground invasion in Lebanon.

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Speaker 1: I saw this morning that they had special operations teams

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Speaker 1: going sort of like a reconnaissance intelligence gathering missions to

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Speaker 1: lay the groundwork for that very likely ground invasion. We also,

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned before, are seeing now Israel striking sites

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Speaker 1: in Yemen as well. We can put a three up

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Speaker 1: on the screen. The latest reporting about this, Israel's military

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Speaker 1: say they launched a series of air raids on Hoo.

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Speaker 1: They targets in Yemen, further hiding fears of wider regional conflict.

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Speaker 1: I would say we're already at that further regional conflict.

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Speaker 1: Military said dozens of aircraft, including fighter jets, attack power

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Speaker 1: plants and seaport facilities at the ras Issa and Hodeeda ports.

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Speaker 1: The attack killed at least four people, one port worker

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Speaker 1: and three electric engineers, according to the local TV, citing

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Speaker 1: health authorities. Ryan actually indicated how data I didn't realize

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Speaker 1: this is one of the key ports that's been used

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Speaker 1: for humanitarian aid into Yemen. Yemen, of course suffering brutally

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Speaker 1: under a blockade and a famine that was devastating to

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Speaker 1: the population there in Israel's also right now blockading Lebanon

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Speaker 1: in certain key ways and seizing and Gaza in the

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Speaker 1: West Bank. I pulled this clip from Al Jazier just

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Speaker 1: explaining the importance of these particular targets.

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Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and take a listen.

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Speaker 7: Help us understand the significance of Hodada. This is a

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Speaker 7: this is really a key entry point for humanitarian aid

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Speaker 7: to a country that has been suffering from malnutrition starvation.

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Speaker 7: The United Nations has warned a famine in several areas.

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Speaker 7: What does it mean for Hadada to be bombed?

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Speaker 8: I believe this is the main goal of the Israeli

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Speaker 8: regime is to put a pressure on the many people. Board,

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Speaker 8: as you say, is one of the most economic or

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Speaker 8: economic city for Yemen. And to target dot Board it

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Speaker 8: means that Israeli want or trying to close it and

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Speaker 8: as well target in those power stations. I this means

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Speaker 8: it will effect only the many civilians because Israeli they

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Speaker 8: know that they cannot actually target the military installation or

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Speaker 8: actually stop or preventing Yemeny from targeting Israel because they

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Speaker 8: know that Saudi for example, they have conducted more than

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Speaker 8: two hundred and fifty thousand a strike. They couldn't stop

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Speaker 8: the Many army and as well hundreds of attack by

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Speaker 8: the United States and the UK in the last several months.

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Speaker 3: They could not to stop.

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Speaker 8: That's why I believe they will continue targeting civilian infrastructure

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Speaker 8: that effect actually all Yemeni is. But as well, I

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Speaker 8: want to mention that Muhammad abd Salam, the spoke person

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Speaker 8: of Antsaru Lah also known the He said that those

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Speaker 8: attack actually will not stop or prevent or obstruct Yemeny

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Speaker 8: from attacking design the state of Israel, or from Kiebin

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Speaker 8: or continuing to support the bioble of Libanon and as

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Speaker 8: well the biople of Parast.

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Speaker 1: So for more on this, we've got doctor Treue to

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Speaker 1: Parsi standing by to help us understand where things go

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Speaker 1: from here.

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Speaker 3: So let's go and get to that.

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Speaker 1: Joining us now to talk more about the American political

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Speaker 1: response and the global political response to the latest out

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Speaker 1: in Middle East is doctor Tree to Parsi with the

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Speaker 1: Quincy Institute.

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Speaker 3: Always great to see, sir.

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Speaker 1: Likewise, so the response that we've gotten from the Biden

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Speaker 1: administration is to the killing of Nostraula and the escalation

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Speaker 1: with regard to Israel and Lebanon is incredibly predictable. We've

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Speaker 1: seen this many times before. We can put this up

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Speaker 1: on the screen A seven. Biden says he's very upset.

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Speaker 1: Biden told Confidence Confidence in New York this week he

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Speaker 1: was livid at Nannaho did not believe the Israeli leader

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Speaker 1: wanted to reach peace.

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Speaker 3: Oh really, you don't.

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Speaker 1: He was frustrated about how often Nanyahoo had humiliated, blinkoln

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Speaker 1: and the President himself. I mean, what can we even

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Speaker 1: say about these reports at this point, doctor Parci.

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Speaker 9: I don't think we've ever seen a strategy of being

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Speaker 9: politically pathetic being seen as a winning political strategy in

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Speaker 9: an election season. But that seems to exactly you what

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Speaker 9: the administration is doing. Bottom line is Biden has not

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Speaker 9: been trying to stop this because while he says that

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Speaker 9: he's trying to stop it, while he says that he

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Speaker 9: wants to avoid an escalation, he has been providing Israel

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Speaker 9: with the weapons, with the money, with the political protection,

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Speaker 9: with the diplomatic protection to be able to do exactly

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Speaker 9: what Biden says that he does not want to see

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Speaker 9: Israel doing. So you can't really claim that you're trying

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Speaker 9: to prevent someone from doing something while you are simultaneously

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Speaker 9: providing him or her with the means to do it.

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Speaker 9: And at this point, the credibility of the United States

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Speaker 9: is you know, it shatters because after having said that

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Speaker 9: they've been working night and day, around the clock to

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Speaker 9: secure a ceasefire and have absolutely nothing to show for

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Speaker 9: it except a couple of weeks about how frustrated they are.

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Speaker 9: It is the Biden administration itself that has revealed its weakness.

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Speaker 4: Well, let's talk about you were in New York last

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Speaker 4: week as people from all over the world are gathering

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Speaker 4: for the United Nations General Assembly, and Biden's pasture on

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Speaker 4: this doesn't just obviously affect him domestically facts the United

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Speaker 4: States diplomatically, geopolitically. So what were you able to pick

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Speaker 4: up on, even from just what you've seen over the

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Speaker 4: last few days, about how Biden's handling of Netanyahu ordering

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Speaker 4: the strike from his hotel room at in New York

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Speaker 4: City when names there for the UN General Assembly? How

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Speaker 4: has that do you think affected the United States? And

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Speaker 4: just in the last few days.

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Speaker 9: I think one of the things there were many important

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Speaker 9: things that we're seeing at the UN in the last

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Speaker 9: couple of days. One is the degree to which Israel

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Speaker 9: is completely isolated outside of the West, but also within

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Speaker 9: the European Union itself, in which numerous European leaders came

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Speaker 9: out with very very strong statements. Now, I know, of course,

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Speaker 9: the strong statements is not necessarily what changes the course

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Speaker 9: of history, but it is important to note that this

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Speaker 9: isolation is the outcome of Israel's own actions and it's

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Speaker 9: complete disregard for international law. So yes, Israel has won

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Speaker 9: numerous military victories in the past, it has nevertheless led

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Speaker 9: to this situation with October seventh, in which Israel, according

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Speaker 9: to itself, cannot live in peace with its neighbors. So

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Speaker 9: just winning military victories clearly is not the pathway alone

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Speaker 9: to be able to reach a piece and security for

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Speaker 9: the long term for Israel. But that lesson seems to

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Speaker 9: have been completely lost. And the other thing I think

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Speaker 9: that is really crucial is to see the moral plunge

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Speaker 9: on the Western side, because take a look at how

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Speaker 9: the United States reacted under the Bush Junior administration when

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Speaker 9: the Israelis assassinated Shechef Yasin, who was the former head

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Speaker 9: of Hamas in two thousand and four. Seven people were killed,

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Speaker 9: civilians were killed in that strike, and the United States

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Speaker 9: at the time heavily criticized and even condemned the Israeli strike.

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Speaker 9: Today you have a situation in which in Australia is

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Speaker 9: killed with several hundred others alongside him, civilians, and there

437
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Speaker 9: is not a word about that coming from the Biden newittration.

438
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 9: The Bush Junior administration seems to have a stronger moral

439
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 9: fiber in this sense than what the BIDE administration does.

440
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 9: This is noted on the international team because simultaneously while

441
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 9: this is taking place, the BID demonstration is talking a

442
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 9: big game about the rules based international order, talking about

443
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 9: the importance of defending Ukraine, because otherwise, what good is

444
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 9: international law if superpowers can break them? So that the hypocrisy,

445
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 9: the double standards are just so blatant, it was a

446
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 9: very depressed atmosphere at the UN because when the United

447
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 9: States behaves like this, with this level of hypocrisy, with

448
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 9: this level of double standards, it paves the way for

449
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 9: everyone else to do so as well, and that will

450
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 9: bring about a much more anarchic and chaotic situation internationally

451
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 9: than we have seen in the past.

452
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: What do you think are the likely possible outcomes next?

453
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 1: Where does the world go from here? What do you

454
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 1: see as the most likely scenarios?

455
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 9: Well, I think that in the immediate term is of

456
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 9: course be determined with what Israel decides to do. In

457
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 9: terms of a land invasion of Lebanon that seems extremely likely.

458
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 9: Israelis believe that they have Hazbolah in a very dire situation,

459
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 9: which is true, and instead of allowing Hisbola the time

460
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:21,959
Speaker 9: to regroup, rebalance itself. Israel feels that it needs to

461
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 9: go in right now. The problem, of course, is that

462
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 9: if Israel does this, it will very likely at some

463
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 9: point lead to situation in which the Iranians will conclude

464
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 9: that Israel is not going to stop at Israel in Lebanon.

465
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 9: It will continue, it will go on all the way

466
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 9: to try to rebalance the situation in the region by

467
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 9: also significantly degrading Iran. If the Iranian has come to

468
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 9: that conclusion, then the rational response from their standpoint likely

469
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 9: will be to act sooner rather than later, and then

470
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 9: we will have the very large regional war that Biden

471
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 9: claims that he he's been trying to prevent for the

472
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 9: last eleven months.

473
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 4: You know, we heard, obviously Natanyahu talk about how the

474
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 4: goal of the post October seventh conflict would be to

475
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 4: eliminate Hamas, and as you just mentioned, this has clearly

476
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 4: been a significant blow to Hesbola just in the last

477
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:15,719
Speaker 4: couple of weeks.

478
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 5: How significant has it.

479
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,880
Speaker 4: Been, because I think there's still an open question about

480
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 4: how significant, how significantly Hamas has been damaged of the

481
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 4: course of the last year. Krystal and I were talking

482
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 4: earlier about reconstitution of Hamas and areas like Chipalia. What

483
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 4: do you make of how significant how significant this is

484
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 4: to Hesbola in the near term and in the long term.

485
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 9: I think in some ways the blow to Hezbela may

486
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 9: actually have been worse than the blow to Hamas because

487
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 9: of the fact that Israelis managed to crack the communications

488
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 9: system of Hezebola. That makes it much more difficult for

489
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 9: them to be able to regroup. They also clearly know

490
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 9: that there are plenty of Israeli intelligence assets inside of

491
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 9: Hisbela itself, They've not been able to identify them or

492
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 9: roote them out. That also makes it very difficult for

493
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 9: them to be able to regroup. So that is a

494
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 9: blow that Hezbola has suffered that is not a military blow.

495
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 9: It's an intelligence blow that is not necessarily the same

496
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 9: as Hamas has suffered. At the end of the day,

497
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 9: sinwar is still there after eleven months, and the Hamas

498
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 9: operatives have been using non electronic communications systems for quite

499
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 9: some time, precisely because of the awareness of how dangerous

500
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 9: it would be for them. It Israell managed to crack it.

501
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 9: Having said that, I do also want to say another thing,

502
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 9: there's stories going out there about how this was a

503
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 9: major intelligence school for Israel and this is why they

504
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 9: managed to get Hisboela. The hesbela leader, without a doubt

505
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 9: is well has for some significant intelligence cool including the

506
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 9: Pager bombings. What is not being said, however, is that

507
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 9: they actually already had two or three opportunities to take

508
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 9: out an Ustralla back in two thousand and six and

509
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 9: they failed. They bomb but he survived. The difference this

510
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 9: time around is that they dropped eighty five bombs two

511
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 9: thousand pound bombs. It is not an improved communications or

512
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 9: intelligence operation. They knew in the past where he was,

513
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 9: but they were not given the leadway the caste blanche

514
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 9: from the United States to drop eighty five two thousand

515
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 9: pound bombs on a residential neighborhood to kill everyone there,

516
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 9: including Australia.

517
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: That's the difference, Doctor Parcy, I also wanted to ask

518
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 1: you about the treatment of the American citizens who are

519
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 1: in the region. We can put a six up on

520
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: the screen so you know quickly after October seventh, the

521
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: State Department began booking charter flights for Americans who wanted

522
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 1: to leave Israel and that contrasts quite significantly with the

523
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 1: treatment here where the State Department has said, Hey, if

524
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: you want to leave Lebanon, where you might get bombed

525
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: with you know us supplied two thousand pound bunk or

526
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 1: buster bombs, book, you're on flight and good luck. And

527
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 1: obviously many of these flights are being canceled. They cost

528
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: thousands and thousands of dollars, etc. So just an extraordinary

529
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 1: discrepancy between our treatment of our own citizens based on

530
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 1: whether they are in Israel versus in Lebanon.

531
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 9: Absolutely, and this is coming out a time in which

532
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 9: the Harris campaign knows very well that it needs to

533
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 9: do some outreach, build some bridges to the Arab and

534
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 9: Muslim communities, and it seems, at least in the last

535
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 9: couple of weeks, but they have done absolutely nothing, And

536
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 9: in fact, even the most simplest of things making sure

537
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 9: that American citizens are finding a way to get out

538
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 9: of a war zone seems to be a bridge too

539
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 9: far for them to do, despite the very crucial impact

540
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,959
Speaker 9: they could have on the elections. This is putting us

541
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 9: truly at a loss. I was speaking to a diplomat

542
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 9: from a South American country last night who also has

543
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 9: a large number of citizens in Lebanon, and they're doing

544
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 9: everything they can right now to make sure that all

545
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 9: of them can get out safely. And they were stunned

546
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 9: as well to see how little is done on the

547
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 9: American side, even though the American number of citizens in Lebanon,

548
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 9: I think dwarf staff of this South American country.

549
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 4: And who's running that Biden administration policy, I think that's

550
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 4: always a question worth asking as we are in this

551
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 4: ongoing constitutional crisis where the president himself appears to be

552
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 4: incapable of fully managing the jobs the.

553
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 5: Job, So is that the reason?

554
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 4: I think that's relevant because it speaks to what could

555
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 4: happen in a potential Harris administration. So do you have

556
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 4: thoughts on that, doctor Parson?

557
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 9: And just how I wish I had a Yeah, I

558
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 9: wish I had a good answer to you on that question.

559
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 9: It has been increasingly mysterious over the last couple of months,

560
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 9: I would say, particularly given some of the incomprehensible decisions,

561
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 9: and it goes back all the way to what we saw.

562
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 9: For instance, in December two thousand and twenty three, on

563
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 9: the two month anniversary of October seventh, the White House

564
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 9: issue a statement only mentioning the Israeli victims, no word

565
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 9: at all about the more than at the time about

566
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 9: twenty thousand Palestinians who had been killed. How is it

567
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 9: even possible to make an oversight of that kind, particularly

568
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 9: mindful of the fact that only weeks earlier the administration

569
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 9: was doing outreach to the Arab and Muslim communities because

570
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 9: of the uncommitted vote. I actually gotten a lot of

571
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 9: a momentum, and they recognized that they needed to do

572
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 9: something about it, and then they issue a statement luge

573
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 9: like that. So this is just continuous and it's just

574
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 9: intensifying the mystery.

575
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw a clet this morning where Joe Biden

576
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: was asked a reporter yelled to a question about Israel

577
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: strikes in Yemen, and he seemed to misunderstand and think

578
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: they were talking about literal labor strikes and started talking

579
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: about collective bargaining agreements, which, listen, you know, anyone can miss.

580
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 3: Here a question, right, but.

581
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 1: Speaks to some deeper concerns we have about his capabilities

582
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: and his ability to even understand what's happening in the region,

583
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 1: let alone what the broader implications are for American interests

584
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,959
Speaker 1: at this point. Thank you so much for joining us

585
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: this morning. It's always so great to hear what you

586
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: have to say in your analysis of where we go

587
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: from here.

588
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 3: So thank you so much, Thank you so much for

589
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 3: having me our pleasure.

590
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 1: All right, guys, As mentioned before, the Vice presdential debate

591
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: is tomorrow night.

592
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 3: We are going to be live streaming. Very excited about that.

593
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: Also as a reminder, we got a little discount for

594
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 1: you guys through election and we put this up on

595
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: the screen fifteen dollars off, so it's basically like you

596
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,719
Speaker 1: get from now to election day free and the code

597
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: is BP twenty twenty four, So avail yourself of that

598
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: if you can. Also a reminder, we are thirty five

599
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: days until the election, which makes me feel a little

600
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: stick to my stomach, I'm being honest. Has gone very

601
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: very quickly, so to preview the VP debate and all

602
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: of the things that are going on, we are happy

603
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: to be joined in studio this morning by Shelby Talcott.

604
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 3: She is a reporter for some of four. Great to

605
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: see you, Shelby, welcome back, Thanks for having me.

606
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, So I guess what do you think

607
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: are the expectations for this debate. Jadvan's a little better

608
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 1: known than Tim Walls. Tim Wall's a little bit lesser known.

609
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: You know, certainly Donald Trump is probably the main character

610
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: as always in terms of this presidential context. So what

611
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: do you think are the expectations for this debate going in?

612
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 10: I go back and forth on how important this presidential

613
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 10: debate is, and part of me thinks it could be

614
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 10: more important than a normal presidential debate just because it

615
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 10: is potentially the last debate of the entire campaign, right,

616
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 10: And also I think there's an argument to be made

617
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 10: that could be particularly important for Donald Trump's campaign because

618
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 10: of how the last debate went for him, But for

619
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 10: Tim Walls, is it's really important as well because he's

620
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 10: a lesser known figure, right, So I just I think

621
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 10: that overall it is a more important debate than normal

622
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 10: vice presidential debates. Both of the campaigns are sort of

623
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 10: doing their normal expectation settings. We had a report over

624
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 10: the weekend noting that Tim Walls was really nervous going

625
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 10: into this presidential debate.

626
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 3: Now, how much of.

627
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 10: That is actual nerves versus they're trying to set the

628
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 10: expectations pretty low? Because remember Tim Walls was the candidate

629
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 10: who when he was being interviewed by Kamala Harris told her, Hey,

630
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 10: I'm not really that good at debates, and so it'll

631
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 10: be really interesting to see, I think, in particular, how

632
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 10: he performs, because we've seen a lot less of him.

633
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, when we can put B three up on the screen,

634
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,239
Speaker 4: that's for what we were talking about. This is an

635
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 4: NPR look at how much VP debates actually matter. So

636
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 4: I want to get your take on that, Shelby as well.

637
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 4: How the campaigns, and let's particularly ask about the Vance

638
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 4: campaign are anticipating what this could do to the shape

639
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 4: of the race. How are they approaching that question? And

640
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 4: I'll add to that through this lens of the weirdness

641
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 4: subplot to the entire election, because that's been basically the

642
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 4: fundamental kind of difference that Tim Walls is trying to

643
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 4: produce between himself in JD.

644
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 5: Vance. That guy's weird and that's something.

645
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 4: That Jade Vance has battled ever since he was named

646
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 4: the candidate. So on the Vance camp, where you've been

647
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 4: talking to sources, what are they thinking about in terms

648
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 4: of how that contrast may come out?

649
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is JD.

650
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 10: Vance, to be clear, has done a lot of interviews

651
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 10: and press avails. I think as of a week or

652
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 10: two ago, he had done one hundred and fifteen since

653
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 10: becoming the vice presidential nominee. So there's an argument to

654
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 10: be made that he is already pretty well known. He's

655
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 10: been on adversarial networks, he's been on the friendly networks,

656
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 10: so that has sort of helped his campaign in combating

657
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 10: that weird image. But this is sort of the first

658
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:43,919
Speaker 10: time we're going to see them go one on one.

659
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,439
Speaker 10: So it is a really big opportunity for the Vance

660
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 10: campaign to show or to push back on that narrative

661
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 10: that he is weird, right, and that's something that I

662
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 10: think we're.

663
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 3: Going to see them try to do.

664
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 10: At the same time, when you talk to Donald Trump campaign,

665
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 10: they historically have not put too much stake in the

666
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 10: vice presidential option. So I remember talking to his campaign

667
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 10: several months ago before really the vice presidential talk was

668
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 10: really brewing, and the big narrative that they felt was

669
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 10: it's not that important. The vice presidential pick doesn't make

670
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 10: a huge difference. Donald Trump really feels like if people

671
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 10: are going to vote for him, they're going to vote

672
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 10: for him. They're not going to vote for him based

673
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 10: on who his vice presidential pick is so in that nature.

674
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 10: I think the campaign is sort of doesn't think it's

675
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 10: going to make a huge deff.

676
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 3: They're relaxed about it.

677
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:38,879
Speaker 1: I mean he even said that himself at that National

678
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 1: Association for Black Journalists event. It was like, eh, VP,

679
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: they're telling me that doesn't matter anyway. Yeah, So he's

680
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 1: even said it publicly. So we know Donald Trump doesn't

681
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 1: really do traditional debate prep. He likes to sit in

682
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 1: a room have people sort of throw questions. Not that

683
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: he doesn't prepare, he just doesn't do it in quite

684
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: the traditional way. Kamala Harris did a very traditional bait

685
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: prep like hold herself up in a hotel, had someone

686
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,320
Speaker 1: playing the part of Trump, you know, went through that

687
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: rigorous process. I know Tim Walls has Pete Bootagic is

688
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 1: playing jd Vance, which I actually think is kind of

689
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: a good choice to play that role. I could see

690
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 1: him channeling that pretty well. How is jd Vance going

691
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 1: about preparing for this debate?

692
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 10: Jd Vance is different than Donald Trump, So he's sort

693
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 10: of doing a mix of traditional debate prep while still

694
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 10: going out on the campaign trail pretty aggressively over the

695
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 10: past few weeks. So he is going to do a

696
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 10: full mock debate trial in Tom Emmer, the Republican from Minnesota,

697
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,919
Speaker 10: has been playing Tim Walls. He's doing murder boards, which

698
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 10: is sort of sessions who Yes, the murder boards is

699
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 10: not show, it is. There's sessions where essentially they're focused

700
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 10: on some of those vulnerabilities, which of course include the

701
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 10: fact that he has said several things on the campaign

702
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 10: trail that Donald Trump himself hasn't hasn't endorsed in terms

703
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 10: of policies. It includes obviously, I'm sure the cats and

704
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 10: dogs rhetoric that we have heard from jd Vance. So

705
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 10: those are the sessions where they sort of focus in

706
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 10: on those vulnerabilities. But at the same time, when I

707
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 10: talked to his campaign, they've said, well, he's done so

708
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 10: many interviews that were less concerned about those kinds of

709
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 10: questions and more concerned about how to combat who Tim

710
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 10: Walls is and how he's going to come up on

711
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 10: the debate stage.

712
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that does make some sense because listen,

713
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 1: Jade Vance has been out there taking them questions and

714
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: having his bar and I'm pretty shocked by how much

715
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: the Hairris campaign has buried Tim Walls, who of all

716
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 1: these candidates has the highest favorability rating, got the job

717
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 1: primarily because he nailed it in these cable news interviews,

718
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: and then they just have completely buried him, I guess

719
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 1: out of fear that he would overshadow Kamala Harris, who

720
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 1: is sort of famously uncomfortable in interview settings and doing very

721
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 1: very little in terms of media.

722
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, and I think that's something that I think that

723
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 10: maybe is a mistake we're going to see on the

724
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 10: debate stage. Yeah, because when I talk to both of

725
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 10: the campaigns, particularly you know, when I talked to Donald

726
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 10: Trump's team, when I talked to Jade Vance's team, when

727
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,720
Speaker 10: I talked to Kamala Harris's team, that everybody agrees that reps.

728
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 10: It's just like in sports, the more you do something,

729
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 10: the better you are and the more you're comfortable about it.

730
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 5: So you have JD.

731
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 10: Vance, who has done over one hundred press avails and interviews,

732
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 10: and then you have Tim Walls, who is I'm pretty

733
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 10: sure he's done less than ten. And so that alone

734
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 10: could be could be interesting to see because you know,

735
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 10: is it a situation where Tim Walls is normally good

736
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 10: in an interview aspect but just hasn't had the reps recently,

737
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 10: and so he's just feeling more nervous.

738
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's entirely possible. I possible.

739
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 4: Now, how are these campaigns preparing for the potential of

740
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 4: fact checks?

741
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 5: We have this tear sheet before This.

742
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 4: Is CBS News saying actually, it's going to approach the

743
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 4: debate more like CNN approached the first Trump Biden debate,

744
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 4: which is allowing the candidates to fact check each other,

745
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 4: but not interjecting like David Muhir did, sort of notorious

746
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 4: at this point in the last presidential debate. So what

747
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 4: are they thinking in terms of those moments? Because Vance

748
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 4: has one of Vance's strengths is seen as actually his

749
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 4: performance when he goes on with like Dana Bash and

750
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 4: the CNN a hostile CNN interview.

751
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 5: But if there's no.

752
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 4: Sort of that was almost like a cope after the

753
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 4: last debate. There were some legitimate complaints about there were

754
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 4: some legitimate complaints about the moderation, but it was the

755
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 4: big talking point coming out of the debate. Yeah, so

756
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 4: if that's not there, almost as a foil, what are

757
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 4: they thinking in terms of that?

758
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 10: I think Tim Wallas's campaign wants to focus more on

759
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 10: Donald Trump's policy, So despite this being a vice presidential debate,

760
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 10: he's going to be really honing in on the Donald

761
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 10: Trump policy aspect of it. When you talk to jd

762
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 10: Vance's team again, they go back to the fact that

763
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 10: he has done so many of these interviews, and they

764
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 10: sound pretty confident that he's going to be able to

765
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,280
Speaker 10: sort of push back on and sort of self fact

766
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 10: check despite the fact that the moderators might not.

767
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 3: He's good in those moments.

768
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 10: I think he's had the p he's been with Dana Bash,

769
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 10: he's been on MSNBC, and so they're less concerned and

770
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 10: have sort of been prepping a little bit less on

771
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 10: that side of things, just because he's done it so.

772
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 3: Much over the past few months.

773
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: How do you think he handles abortion, because this was

774
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: one of the big missteps. He gets asked, predictably in

775
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 1: a Sunday News show interview about whether Donald Trump would

776
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 1: veto a national abortion ban, and sort of under pressure,

777
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: he's like, yeah, I think he would. And then Trump

778
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: gets asked about it in the debate and he's like, well,

779
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 1: Jad said that, but to be honest, we hadn't talked

780
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:34,280
Speaker 1: about it, so sort of indicating like, no, I wouldn't

781
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 1: veto that as far as I know, this tension of

782
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 1: what the campaign's actual position is remains unresolved.

783
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:42,399
Speaker 3: So how does JD.

784
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 1: Man's handle situation like that, where you know, it's kind

785
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 1: of unclear what exactly he's supposed to be repping for

786
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 1: his boss?

787
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think we got a preview of how he's

788
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 10: going to handle those kinds of questions. A few weeks later,

789
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,800
Speaker 10: he was asked on Meet the Press about that moment

790
00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 10: on the debate stage from Donald Trump, and he said, well,

791
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 10: I've learned my lesson about getting ahead of Donald Trump,

792
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,720
Speaker 10: so I do anticipate if there's a question to that effect,

793
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 10: that's going to be.

794
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 3: Learned my lesson.

795
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 10: But at the same time, during that same interview, he

796
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 10: also seemed to get ahead of Donald Trump on on

797
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 10: health insurance. I started talking about how Donald Trump's plan

798
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 10: includes separating people.

799
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 3: Into high risk pools, and I asked.

800
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 10: The campaign if that was their policy, and they declined

801
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 10: to directly answer whether that was their policy. So I

802
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,799
Speaker 10: think the problem the risk of that JD. Vance has

803
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 10: on Tuesday Night is that historically, you know, when I

804
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 10: talk to people on the Hill who have covered him,

805
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 10: he likes chatting he's a little bit nerdy. He likes

806
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 10: chatting about policy, he likes to riff off of policy.

807
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 10: And I don't know if it's he doesn't understand that

808
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 10: his words are hold more meaning now, or if these

809
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 10: are truly Donald Trump's policy plans and he just hasn't.

810
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 3: Rolled them out yet.

811
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,240
Speaker 10: But there's a risk I think that he gets too

812
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 10: by down in policy and we end up hearing more

813
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 10: of these situations where jd. Vance previews a policy that

814
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 10: Donald Trump is.

815
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 3: Not yet endorsed.

816
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter though,

817
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: because I mean it's not like I don't get the

818
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 1: sense Trump is like mad at him for that stuff. No,

819
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: And unfortunately, in a lot of ways we're living with

820
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: this is like a post policy type of campaign. So

821
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:21,919
Speaker 1: the specifics of donal I mean, Donald Trump got away

822
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: at the debate with saying like, oh, I've got a

823
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 1: concept of a plan on health healthcare, which how many

824
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 1: years do we spend litigating the in and ounce of healthcare?

825
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 3: And so even if jd.

826
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 1: Vance is just like make it up on the fly

827
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 1: what Donald Trump's policy is, because even Donald Trump doesn't

828
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 1: know what Donald Trump's policy is, at the end of

829
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 1: the day.

830
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 3: Sadly, I'm not sure it really matters.

831
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 10: Yeah, I do think overall, on both sides of the spectrum,

832
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:49,240
Speaker 10: this is a very policy like presidential campaign and Donald Trump,

833
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 10: to be clear, despite jd Vance getting ahead of him

834
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 10: on some of these things, he really likes Jadie Vance.

835
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 10: He sees him on TV, he sees him go on

836
00:42:56,640 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 10: these adversarial networks. He likes his personality, he likes how

837
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 10: he pushes back.

838
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 3: His beard apparently.

839
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 10: And so that's the ultimate thing is if Donald Trump

840
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 10: doesn't care that jd Vance potentially gets ahead of him

841
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 10: on things, it doesn't really matter.

842
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 4: Well, so can we just do my last question for you,

843
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 4: Shelby is a vibe check, Like you're talking to people

844
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 4: in these circles VP debate. As we just talked about

845
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 4: thirty five days left until the election, there was just

846
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 4: a near assassination attempt a couple of weeks ago. So

847
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 4: in the Vance camp at least, what the morale. How

848
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:30,800
Speaker 4: are the vibes.

849
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 10: I think the vibes are pretty good from jd Vance's camp. Now,

850
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 10: you know, when I talk to people on the campaign,

851
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 10: whether it's jd Vance's team or Donald Trump's team, which

852
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 10: is essentially one and the same at this point, there

853
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 10: are certainly nerves in terms of depending on who you

854
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 10: ask on how they're doing, they'll give different answers. Some

855
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 10: people say it's fifty to fifty. Some people are convinced

856
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,439
Speaker 10: Donald Trump is going to win. Some people are really

857
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 10: frustrated about the dynamics of the campaign overall.

858
00:43:57,960 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 5: But JD.

859
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 10: Vance's team is sort of full ahead. They're pretty focused.

860
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 10: They're pretty confident in him as a vice presidential candidate,

861
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 10: and they know that he goes out there and he

862
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 10: can do these interviews and he performs pretty well. He's

863
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 10: certainly had some hiccups right the weeks of dog and

864
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 10: cat rhetoric and comments was not something they wanted to

865
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 10: deal with, but they wanted.

866
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 3: To deal with it.

867
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 1: Donald Trump didn't seem afraid of dealing with that, since

868
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 1: he's the one who blew it up nationally on the

869
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: debate stage self.

870
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:33,439
Speaker 10: Because they're advisors, his team sort of has quietly said,

871
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 10: you know, well, I don't know why we're talking about this,

872
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 10: but at the end of the day, I think there's

873
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:42,839
Speaker 10: a lot of confidence internally in JD. Vance's policy experience,

874
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 10: and he is somebody who prepares a lot, and so

875
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 10: I feel like they're feeling more confident than some of

876
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 10: Donald Trump's advisors were for his presidential debate.

877
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 1: How do they explain how unpopular he is if they're

878
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 1: happy with him, because and then you know, also in

879
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 1: the converse, like publicans really hate two Walls, they think

880
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 1: he's such a disaster. He's the most popular guy in

881
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 1: the ticket, So what is their understanding of that?

882
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 3: I think they The.

883
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 10: Argument I've heard from a few folks has been a, well,

884
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 10: Tim Walls hasn't been out there, so Americans just don't

885
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 10: really know him. So he's sort of been sheltered in

886
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 10: this cocoon that jd. Vance hasn't because Jadie Vance has

887
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 10: gone out and taken the tough questions, YadA, YadA, YadA.

888
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 10: But I think the other argument is I think they

889
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 10: just don't really care necessarily because they.

890
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 1: Want him to be the attack dog they want them.

891
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 1: They don't mind him being a bit of a villain.

892
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 5: They want him to be the attack dog.

893
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 10: They don't mind that he's seen as the bad guy.

894
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 10: And that's again why I think this vice presidential could

895
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 10: potentially be important for him, because if people come out

896
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 10: and see him in a different light than what the

897
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:47,840
Speaker 10: Kamala Harris campaign has been putting out.

898
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 3: It could help him.

899
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 4: I'm not super surprised that the vibes are good in

900
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 4: the vans campus, so I feel like, if anything, they're

901
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 4: kind of rubbing their hands together with Tim Walls, expecting

902
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 4: that JD will be able to actually have someone he

903
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 4: can start talking to about like the late term abortions.

904
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 4: He can flip that question going to they see it

905
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 4: this way transgender issues. They can flip the question on

906
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 4: him because Tim Walls has that and Jadvance That's how

907
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,839
Speaker 4: Jada Vanscer sees his strength on the campaign trills being

908
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 4: able to like flip the media narrative. So I bet

909
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 4: they're actually like kind of looking to lean into that.

910
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 5: Yeah.

911
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 10: We have heard less expectation settings from Jade Vance's team

912
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 10: compared to Tim Walls's team, and I think that's notable

913
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 10: because typically in a presidential debate, both of the campaigns

914
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 10: are really doing expectation setting. I mean, Donald Trump historically

915
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,280
Speaker 10: likes to set the bar extremely low for his opponents,

916
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 10: but his advisors will sort of expectation set for him. Yeah,

917
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 10: but we're not really hearing as much of the expectation

918
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 10: setting from Vance's team, and I think that's because they're

919
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 10: pretty confident they know what jd Vance is good at,

920
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 10: and a lot of what Jada Vance is naturally good

921
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 10: at is things that he's going to.

922
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 3: Have to do on the debate.

923
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 1: He's not going to just crumble, There's no doubt about it. Now,

924
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 1: whether people like him at the end of it, I

925
00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: think is a very different question. Yeah, but you're not

926
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 1: going to, you know, catch him off guard where he's

927
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 1: just stuttering and stumbling and doesn't know what to do.

928
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 1: You're not going to bait him in the really easy

929
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 1: way that they did with Donald Trump, which was just

930
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:10,879
Speaker 1: embarrassing at the end of the day. So I think

931
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense. Shelby, thank you. It's

932
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: so great to have insights from you. We appreciate you

933
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: coming in.

934
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. Yeah, our pleasure. All right.

935
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 1: So, heading into that vice presidential debate, we didn't wanted

936
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 1: to do a quick check on where the polls stand

937
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: and who's at what chances in terms of November and

938
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 1: the ultimate result here. So we are turning once again

939
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:31,919
Speaker 1: to Logan Phillips of a race to the White House.

940
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 3: Great to Caesar, great to see you too.

941
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 1: So we got some interesting news last week about this

942
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 1: one congressional district in Nebraska that we covered here, and

943
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 1: this is significant because it counts for one electoral vote.

944
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 1: There was a push to make Nebraska winner take all

945
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 1: like most states are. That push failed, so now they's

946
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 1: still going to be allocating electoral College votes by district.

947
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 1: And we got a couple of relatively high quality polls

948
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: in about how that district is leaning. We can put

949
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 1: c two up on the screen here and get us sense.

950
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,280
Speaker 1: This is the CNN poll. It shows Harris plus eleven

951
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 1: in Nebraska's second congressional district. Biden won it by just

952
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:11,280
Speaker 1: six in twenty twenty. Aaron Blake of Pines helps explain

953
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 1: why the Trump campaign was so keen to change down

954
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 1: Nebraska awards its electoral votes. What do you make there

955
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 1: was another poll that showed, you know, a similarly significant

956
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: margin for Harris in this congressional district. Logan, what do

957
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 1: you make of where things stand there right now and

958
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:25,240
Speaker 1: why it matters?

959
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 3: Yeah? I fully buy it.

960
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 11: I mean, we had another poll that was plus nine,

961
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:29,839
Speaker 11: another one that was plus fifteen, and these are three

962
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 11: top pollsters, and so this is really surprising because this

963
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 11: was very close in twenty or pretty close in twenty twenty,

964
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 11: so there was a chance for Donald Trump to win it.

965
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 11: But he might have messed up by focusing so hard

966
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 11: on changing the rules fifty days before the election. I

967
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:45,479
Speaker 11: think he struck a nerve with the voters in any

968
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 11: two because this is how they have political relevancy, the

969
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 11: moment that happens, politicians just skipping Obraska from that point. Yeah,

970
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 11: and you know, it was a five point race there

971
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 11: and then overnight Harris's lead expanded to you know, over

972
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 11: ten points in my polling average, and so seeing that

973
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 11: anywhere else, so I think it's a direct reaction to it.

974
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 4: And interesting, Moss, can you tell us about any too basically,

975
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 4: like why that might be, what types of voters might

976
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 4: have been animated by what happened? It's I believe it's

977
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 4: in the Omahai area.

978
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 11: Right, Yeah, Yeah, Well I think as along the same

979
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 11: lines of when people were concerned in New Hampshire that maybe,

980
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 11: although it didn't really come to play, that moving the

981
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 11: primary data around in New Hampshire might annoy the voters there. Yeah,

982
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 11: this is so specific to that place's relevancy that even

983
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 11: though it's a lot less political, I think than New Hampshire,

984
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,279
Speaker 11: which is probably the most political of any of the states.

985
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,879
Speaker 11: It still is going to matter. And you know, if

986
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 11: it really annoys five percent of voters that might be

987
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 11: in play, that's a game changer. And so the reason

988
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 11: why this one district matters it probably doesn't seem like

989
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 11: much because hey, you need two seventy to win. There's

990
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:46,920
Speaker 11: five hundred and thirty eight where I focus so much

991
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 11: on one. Well, the way the math has worked out

992
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 11: for this decade because every year, every ten years they decide,

993
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 11: you know, how many electoral votes will be for each

994
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 11: state based off population. This time around, if Harris wins

995
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:59,879
Speaker 11: the state she's expected to, and she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania,

996
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 11: and Wisconsin with Nebraska second, that gets her exactly the

997
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:04,280
Speaker 11: two seventy.

998
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:07,399
Speaker 1: Wow, that is so crazy, which shows you why they

999
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 1: were trying to change this, but also it is understandable.

1000
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 1: You know, it also exposes the absurdity of the electoral

1001
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 1: college system that, like, you know, if you aren't one

1002
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 1: of those swing areas, politicians literally don't care whether you

1003
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: exist or not. So it makes sense that they wanted

1004
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 1: to try to hold on to their political relevance here.

1005
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,399
Speaker 1: I wanted to get your sense of this New York

1006
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 1: Times Siena polling that we have. Let's go and put

1007
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:32,359
Speaker 1: this up on the screen. They did some polling of

1008
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 1: Wisconsin and Michigan in particular, and they found a very

1009
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:40,320
Speaker 1: tight race Kamala Harris up forty nine to forty seven

1010
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 1: in Wisconsin, just forty eight to forty seven in Michigan.

1011
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 1: This is another one of those poles that had a

1012
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: large gap in Nebraska. No surprise, Trump leading in the

1013
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 1: state of Ohio there as well. They pulled Ohio in

1014
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,919
Speaker 1: the context of also pulling the very competitive Ohio Senate

1015
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:58,919
Speaker 1: race there, but at least in the context of this poll,

1016
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 1: this shows some tightening in those quote unquote blue wall states.

1017
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 1: Is that consistent with what we're seeing across the board?

1018
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 11: Ever, so slight tightening outstaying across the board since the debate,

1019
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 11: and that kind of makes sense because you have high

1020
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 11: points and low points for candidates and since to adjust

1021
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 11: a little more to the middle. I just think you

1022
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 11: don't know how to be a pet of because I

1023
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 11: said this last time it was on New York Times.

1024
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,839
Speaker 11: Is a great polster, but they've consistently, with the one

1025
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 11: exception of the last PA Michigan poll been missing or

1026
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 11: not missing, but it's been a few points to the

1027
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 11: right of other pollsters. Yeah, so yeah, they might have

1028
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 11: it right, but chances are there going to be a

1029
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 11: little bit to the right this cycle. So having a

1030
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,319
Speaker 11: small lead in those states when everyone else showed you

1031
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 11: with a small but slightly better lead, I think is

1032
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 11: honestly a good sign for Harris.

1033
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, and what are you seeing in Michigan Because there's

1034
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 4: a lot being made in the tightening here that this

1035
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 4: could have been from the Dearborn area. This could be

1036
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 4: hemorrhaging among air of Americans, Muslim Americans around the deer

1037
00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 4: Born area in Michigan, that when you have such a

1038
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 4: slim margin, it could wreck the whole state for your

1039
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 4: electorally at least, is there anything there.

1040
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 11: I think it's a valid concern. But I also think

1041
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 11: this is a bit of a narrow that the Harris

1042
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 11: campaign and the Slocking campaign are all about, because the

1043
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,280
Speaker 11: last thing they want is their own voters in Michigan

1044
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 11: to not take it seriously. Yeah, and hey, Slocking will

1045
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:11,359
Speaker 11: love if National Democrats ands more in Michigan. So there's

1046
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 11: nothing wrong for Democrats. For Democrats to have that I'm

1047
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 11: concerned narrative because it gets their voters more likely to volunteer,

1048
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 11: more likely to donate. I don't receive too much of

1049
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 11: a tiny inning in Michigan relative to other states, other

1050
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 11: than a tiny post debate slippitch. You know, it's a

1051
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 11: really competitive state that she's more likely to win than

1052
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 11: the other electoral than the other swing states. But I

1053
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 11: don't think things are falling apart there, at least not

1054
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 11: what I'm seeing in the polling.

1055
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: Gotcha, guys, Logan is going to stick with us and

1056
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 1: reveal the latest from his forecast, the Race of the

1057
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 1: White House forecast. That's going to be available for everyone

1058
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 1: later in the week, but we're going to post that

1059
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 1: exclusively for premium subscribers right away, you know, after we

1060
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 1: record it and post and all that good stuff. If

1061
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 1: you want to become a premium subscribe, we can put

1062
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 1: the discount back up on the screen fifteen dollars off

1063
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 1: through election day just entering that code BP twenty twenty four,

1064
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: so you can evail yourself of that discount. You can

1065
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 1: see more of space, and you can see more of

1066
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 1: soccer space looking like that is my blessing that I

1067
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 1: get to enjoy every day's here genuinely.

1068
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 3: In any case, all right, we'll post all of this.

1069
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 1: Like I said later in the week, Premium subscribers, stick around, Logan,

1070
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:21,720
Speaker 1: let's go and put your model up on the screen.

1071
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 5: Here.

1072
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 4: More video is coming in of the utter devastation that

1073
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 4: is sweeping parts of the East Coast in the aftermath

1074
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 4: of Hurricane Helene. Let's go ahead and roll some of

1075
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 4: this footage. It's really shocking and upsetting. The death toll,

1076
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 4: it should be unnoted as well, is approaching one hundred

1077
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 4: as the time that we are recording this.

1078
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 5: It's at eighty nine. Expected to grow.

1079
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 4: And if you're looking at this video on your screen,

1080
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 4: you can understand why that's expected to grow because we

1081
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:54,240
Speaker 4: are seeing studying stunning levels of flooding in places like Ashville,

1082
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 4: North Carolina. It's on your screen right now. I mean,

1083
00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 4: just that was a Wendy's. If you're listening to this

1084
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 4: was a Wendy's with the water almost all the way.

1085
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 5: To the roof. Incredible levels of flooding.

1086
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 4: So Crystal, you actually spent a lot of time in

1087
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 4: Asheville and in places that are being so heavily affected

1088
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:13,880
Speaker 4: by this right now, it's just.

1089
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 1: This video we're watching right now too, is of a

1090
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: house floating down the street, and it is shocking. You know,

1091
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 1: I mean, this is not this is not actually, this

1092
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 1: isn't a coastal area. This is western North Carolina. You know,

1093
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 1: it's the Great Smoky Mountains. It's truly one of my

1094
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 1: favorite parts of the entire country. This is in now

1095
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 1: in Florida. And the way that the path this hurricane

1096
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 1: took and see mudslides onto the highways. Many of the

1097
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 1: interstates by the way leading into this area are completely

1098
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,280
Speaker 1: blocked and closed. Here you see some of the roadway

1099
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 1: that just like you know, fell just fell apart.

1100
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:52,840
Speaker 3: Here's the highway that fell apart.

1101
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 1: These are people recording from within their own homes. I

1102
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 1: believe this one, Yeah, this was a hurricane house flood

1103
00:54:59,440 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 1: victim in Tampa. This one, I believe, also is in Florida.

1104
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 1: And the track that this hurricane took. It hit the

1105
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 1: Big Bend area of Florida, and then it came up

1106
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 1: through the inland areas and dumped just massive amounts of

1107
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:21,359
Speaker 1: water on areas like Asheville, North Carolina. And so you know,

1108
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:25,719
Speaker 1: if you're a coastal Florida resident, You've seen hurricanes before.

1109
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:27,799
Speaker 3: You evacuate, you know what to do.

1110
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:32,879
Speaker 1: These are people who have never imagined that they would

1111
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:35,919
Speaker 1: be hit with a hurricane like this in a way

1112
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,759
Speaker 1: that has just been utterly devastating.

1113
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 3: I mean, the images are unimaginable.

1114
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,840
Speaker 1: People are stuck without food, without water, without gasoline, without

1115
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 1: the ability with cell phone. Yeah, no power, no cell

1116
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 1: no Wi Fi, nothing, and so you have people who

1117
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 1: are stranded and we don't know what condition they're in.

1118
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 5: You know.

1119
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 1: That's why there's a lot of fears that this death

1120
00:55:57,040 --> 00:55:59,959
Speaker 1: hol which is approaching one hundred, will continue to ride,

1121
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 1: because the devastation was so swift and so unexpected. Because

1122
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:07,759
Speaker 1: communications have been cut off, there is effectively no ability

1123
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: to flee the region at this point. Because you saw

1124
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 1: some of the images of the bridges and roadways that

1125
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 1: have just utterly collapsed. Your best bet, according to what

1126
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: I'm reading, is to try some of these different mountain

1127
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:20,319
Speaker 1: back roads to get out of the area, because the

1128
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 1: main interstate highways have all been devastated. And we could

1129
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 1: put D two up on the screen here. Some locals

1130
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 1: are describing this as biblical devastation. In these North Carolina

1131
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 1: towns that have been flooded by Helene. And from the

1132
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 1: images you can understand why let me read to you

1133
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 1: a little bit from the story, because it speaks to

1134
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 1: that you know just how unexpected it is to suffer

1135
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 1: something like this in this region. Beverly and Baxter Eller

1136
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 1: had lived in the same house in this small North

1137
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:57,359
Speaker 1: Carolina hamlet for thirty seven years. Never once had it

1138
00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:02,719
Speaker 1: flooded in thirty seven years, never once until just before

1139
00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:05,800
Speaker 1: dawn on Friday, as Hurricane Helene tours through the region.

1140
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: The water from the raging river rose fast and faster

1141
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 1: until it reached their yard. The couple fled, not a

1142
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 1: moment too soon to huddle with neighbors inside a Baptist

1143
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 1: church up the hill. On Saturday afternoon, they returned and

1144
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 1: found their home utterly destroyed. The manager of the county

1145
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: that includes Asheville, North Carolina, says this is looking to

1146
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 1: be Buncomb's County's own Hurricane Katrina, and the assistant Emergency

1147
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 1: services director says, we have biblical devastation through the county.

1148
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 3: We have biblical flooding.

1149
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: Here put the next one up on the screen that

1150
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 1: gives the latest in terms of the death toll, at

1151
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 1: least eighty seven people killed in six different states, including

1152
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 1: at least thirty in North Carolina. The image here is

1153
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: a truck upside down, nose down rivers, swollen creek there,

1154
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 1: and road that had clearly been flooded at one point.

1155
00:57:57,280 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 1: And this article gets into how dificult it is to

1156
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:04,439
Speaker 1: leave because multiple stretches of Interstates forty and twenty six,

1157
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 1: which are the main roadways for traveling in and out

1158
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:10,280
Speaker 1: of this area, have are closed and will remain closed

1159
00:58:10,360 --> 00:58:12,480
Speaker 1: for god knows how long. You guys saw the devastation,

1160
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 1: how long will it take to fix and repair these roadways?

1161
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: And search operations and recovery operations sadly do continue.

1162
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 3: So two feet of rain unbelievable.

1163
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 1: Two feet of rain dropped on this area, and it's

1164
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 1: just it's unimaginable.

1165
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 3: It's absolutely unimaginable.

1166
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:33,320
Speaker 4: So and the couple that was profiled briefly by the

1167
00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:36,880
Speaker 4: Washington Post, they right now, that Eller family, they don't

1168
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 4: know where their son is. They can't find their son.

1169
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 4: And in just that Washington Post article you see the

1170
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 4: accounts of people who don't know where all of their

1171
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 4: children are. There are a lot of people missing. North Carolina,

1172
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:49,960
Speaker 4: Kentucky's being hit really hard.

1173
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 5: There are a lot of people.

1174
00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 4: Missing, and so we're to nearly one hundred fatalities already.

1175
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 4: As you mentioned, the emergency director in the county that

1176
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 4: the Washington Post also was reporting on has invoked the

1177
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 4: quote mass fatality plan. So these numbers are going to

1178
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:09,920
Speaker 4: get worse, and probably so much worse.

1179
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 5: So it's just you know, this is these areas of

1180
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 5: like Asheville, for example.

1181
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 4: People have posted is in a floodplaine, But that doesn't

1182
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 4: mean that people are used to It doesn't mean that

1183
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 4: it's obviously something that happens every year.

1184
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 5: There's such a thing as hundred your flood. So this

1185
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 5: is this level two feet of water.

1186
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not something that people's It's not the Florida coast,

1187
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 4: that's for sure.

1188
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 1: Right, And this hurricane strengthened very rapidly as it was

1189
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,240
Speaker 1: coming over the Gulf. That strengthened from you know, tropical

1190
00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 1: storm and rapidly escalated to when it came ashore it

1191
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 1: was a category for hurricane, which is of course close

1192
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:49,760
Speaker 1: to the highest level, and so lots of devastation in

1193
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 1: Florida's the entire swath that it took you know, really

1194
00:59:53,960 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 1: tons of devastation, and you know, there is a sense

1195
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:01,440
Speaker 1: that previous eras like I remind member being glued to

1196
01:00:01,560 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 1: the coverage of the horror and the failures of Hurricane Katrina.

1197
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 1: You know, I remember some of the massive media attention

1198
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:15,000
Speaker 1: on hurricanes and natural disasters of the past, and it

1199
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:17,800
Speaker 1: does seem like because now we're getting hundred year floods

1200
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 1: every ten years, because the pace of these extreme weather

1201
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:25,720
Speaker 1: events has escalated due to warming waters and due to

1202
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: climate change, it's sort of like the you know, mass

1203
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 1: shooting at the school phenomena where people just become anored

1204
01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:35,760
Speaker 1: and the media becomes innored and sort of you know,

1205
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 1: numb to the scale of the devastation. Because I don't

1206
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 1: think it's I don't think it's wrong to call this,

1207
01:00:42,600 --> 01:00:45,600
Speaker 1: you know, akin to their Katrina in terms of the

1208
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:47,800
Speaker 1: level of destruction and how long it will take this

1209
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 1: area to recover based on the images that we are seeing.

1210
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 1: And yet you know, the national attention, even the political attention,

1211
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 1: like Kama Harris has still at a fund doing a

1212
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:03,080
Speaker 1: fundraiser in La like nothing's like, nothing happened. I don't,

1213
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure Biden has put out some state.

1214
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:07,320
Speaker 1: Has he come out and addressed the nation. Where are

1215
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:09,600
Speaker 1: the plans to like fly down and be on the ground.

1216
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:12,200
Speaker 1: Where are the assertions of like, I you know, whatever

1217
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 1: you need, We're going to make sure that you've got

1218
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:17,560
Speaker 1: it covered. I just I don't see that level of

1219
01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 1: political or media response. That doesn't mean that they're not

1220
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 1: receiving resources. You know, the governor has said there's National

1221
01:01:25,360 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 1: Guard resources and federal resources.

1222
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:28,240
Speaker 3: Already on the ground there.

1223
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: But it does feel like we've just sort of become

1224
01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:33,040
Speaker 1: numb to this level of catastrophe.

1225
01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 4: I mean, it's and this is where also, by the way,

1226
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 4: having a president who I mean, I continue to think

1227
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 4: of this as a constitutional crisis, A president who don't

1228
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 4: know his level of lucidity at any given moment. Yeah,

1229
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 4: it really does matter, and it really should infuriate people

1230
01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 4: that this is who the leader of the United States is.

1231
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:53,760
Speaker 4: When you have people missing all over, you have nearly

1232
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 4: one hundred fatalities already, the president actually does have a

1233
01:01:57,080 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 4: lot of tools as the executive in situations like this,

1234
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:04,400
Speaker 4: and so I mean, it's just it's just enraging really

1235
01:02:04,440 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 4: when you think about it through that context. Now, some

1236
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:13,000
Speaker 4: people may remember after Hurricane Sandy, which happened in an election.

1237
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:14,560
Speaker 3: Year, Superstorm Sandy.

1238
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 4: Superstorm Sandy twenty twelve, people have those kind of indelible

1239
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:22,680
Speaker 4: images of Barack Obama and Chris Christie surveying the damage together.

1240
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 5: We can put D three up on the screen.

1241
01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:30,800
Speaker 4: There are already conspiracy theories proliferating actually about HARP.

1242
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 5: Now.

1243
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 4: HARP is reading from the University Alaska Fairbanks website.

1244
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 5: So this is like the exact language that they use

1245
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:39,200
Speaker 5: to describe it.

1246
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:43,160
Speaker 4: It is the High Frequency Active Oral Auroral Research Program,

1247
01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 4: and they describe it as a scientific endeavor aimed at

1248
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 4: studying the properties and behaviors of the ion sphere. If

1249
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:52,760
Speaker 4: you follow sort of the conspiracy world, you've definitely heard

1250
01:02:52,840 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 4: of HEART before.

1251
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:54,680
Speaker 3: Had you heard of heart before?

1252
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 5: Yeah? Yeah, because it comes off.

1253
01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 4: It comes up in situations like this, And so D

1254
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:01,720
Speaker 4: three is on your screen.

1255
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 5: They are using HARP.

1256
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 4: This Twitter user says to ensure that Hurricane Helene devastates

1257
01:03:05,760 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 4: the largest Republican stronghold area in Florida. This hurricane will

1258
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:12,360
Speaker 4: destroy holmes, displace thousands, and ensure much less participation in

1259
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:14,000
Speaker 4: the presidential election in November.

1260
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 5: They will stop at nothing. So the theory there is

1261
01:03:16,440 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 5: that harp.

1262
01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:20,320
Speaker 4: Was being used to actually create this entire hurricane a

1263
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:25,320
Speaker 4: natural disaster, to affect the vote essentially in the presidential election.

1264
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 4: That was a theory that circulated when Sandy hit before

1265
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,760
Speaker 4: the twenty twelve elections. So this isn't entirely new, but

1266
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:36,400
Speaker 4: it's there's some like people we can put we have

1267
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:38,040
Speaker 4: a mashup that we can put up here. There are

1268
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 4: some people, Crystal, your favorite Twitter user actually with that.

1269
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 1: Turn yeahbody everybody's favorite ties or anything.

1270
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:48,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, something is off about the reporting of this hurricane,

1271
01:03:48,800 --> 01:03:50,840
Speaker 4: he posted. And then I mean the fact that it

1272
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:52,640
Speaker 4: just popped up on the radar out of nowhere. Another

1273
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 4: person replied, I think it's weird. It hasn't been hyped

1274
01:03:55,360 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 4: up for days in advance like storms in the past,

1275
01:03:57,040 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 4: no water wall coverage, and all of a sudden it's

1276
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:02,880
Speaker 4: here and it's serious. F so, and then the other meme,

1277
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 4: I don't mean to harp on it, but I don't

1278
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:07,160
Speaker 4: trust the government. And I think the other thing about

1279
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:08,960
Speaker 4: that meme, to your point, Crystal, is that harp is

1280
01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 4: really familiar in some of these conservative circles to the

1281
01:04:11,200 --> 01:04:12,800
Speaker 4: point where you can slap it on a meme. I

1282
01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 4: shouldn't say conservatives these conspiracy circles because it tends to

1283
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 4: be it can be like fringe left and fringe right

1284
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:21,760
Speaker 4: because it is like a very advanced and kind of

1285
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:25,040
Speaker 4: like science fiction program. But we have a lot of

1286
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 4: things that are like straight out of science fiction in

1287
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:30,720
Speaker 4: this world these days. So that's already happening. And what's

1288
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,600
Speaker 4: interesting is I think the media question is interesting.

1289
01:04:34,160 --> 01:04:37,600
Speaker 5: The media not spotlighting.

1290
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 4: This to the degree that it should be seems like

1291
01:04:40,120 --> 01:04:42,040
Speaker 4: it's fomenting some people to be like, wait, this is

1292
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:44,240
Speaker 4: this is so weird. And actually the story is that

1293
01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:47,479
Speaker 4: journalists just don't know people in Appalachia. I just don't

1294
01:04:47,520 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 4: know people in North Carolina and Kentucky, and I don't

1295
01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 4: understand probably how severe it is if they're producers in

1296
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:56,720
Speaker 4: New York City. I mean, I think that's probably the

1297
01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:58,000
Speaker 4: best explanation for what it is.

1298
01:04:58,080 --> 01:05:00,520
Speaker 1: I think that's definitely a part of it. There's no

1299
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:03,360
Speaker 1: doubt if this happened in New York City, the coverage

1300
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 1: would be different like Sandy, by the way, like Sandy,

1301
01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 1: and but in addition, because like Florida, for example, right now,

1302
01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: like their property insurance with their homeowners insurance market is

1303
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:18,160
Speaker 1: just basically completely collapse and fallen apart because of the

1304
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:23,120
Speaker 1: number of billion dollar plus extreme weather events that happen now.

1305
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:27,120
Speaker 1: So it's also a frequency issue where it's like another hurricane,

1306
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:29,480
Speaker 1: big deal, we get those all the time out you know,

1307
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:33,120
Speaker 1: another like devastating only once in a hundred years thing

1308
01:05:33,440 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 1: that happens now every year.

1309
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:37,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's important, we'll cover it a little bit.

1310
01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 1: But it's you know, it loses the shock value when

1311
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,840
Speaker 1: it happens over and over and over again. So I

1312
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,560
Speaker 1: think it's those two things combined. I mean, I want

1313
01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:49,080
Speaker 1: to I don't want to harp on the like conspiracy.

1314
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:51,240
Speaker 5: I don't want to.

1315
01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 2: Do that.

1316
01:05:55,200 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 1: I don't want to harp on the conspiracy instinct. But

1317
01:05:57,760 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 1: there is something that I've been thinking about a lot

1318
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 1: here which is not as you point out, Emily, this

1319
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:05,280
Speaker 1: is not a new instinct in American politics, right. The

1320
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 1: paranoid style is that I've been reading. I'm reading it

1321
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:11,360
Speaker 1: because I've been thinking a lot about this is not

1322
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:13,760
Speaker 1: a new instinct in American politics. I didn't even know

1323
01:06:13,800 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 1: about the Superstar and Sandy conspiracies that this was like

1324
01:06:16,360 --> 01:06:21,920
Speaker 1: a Democrat generated hurricane. To what convinced Chris Christie to

1325
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:25,200
Speaker 1: hug Obama in the final stretch and hand the election

1326
01:06:25,240 --> 01:06:28,520
Speaker 1: to I didn't even know about that one. But it

1327
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 1: was interesting to watch this conspiracy develop too, because initially

1328
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:34,880
Speaker 1: when it was first hitting, there are cat turt and

1329
01:06:34,920 --> 01:06:37,959
Speaker 1: others were sort of insinuating like, oh, this isn't even real,

1330
01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:40,080
Speaker 1: like I live in Florida and it was like barely

1331
01:06:40,120 --> 01:06:42,840
Speaker 1: anything happening. And then once it was clear that this

1332
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:47,680
Speaker 1: was a horrible, devastating situation, then it shifted to oh, well,

1333
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:51,840
Speaker 1: it must have been like a Soros funded Democrat hurricane,

1334
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:55,760
Speaker 1: because look how it's hurting these Republican areas. But also Asheville,

1335
01:06:55,800 --> 01:07:00,080
Speaker 1: North Carolina is like the most liberal hippie it's so

1336
01:07:00,440 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 1: it's like the crunchiest place in all of North Carolina.

1337
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:06,760
Speaker 1: So even on the merits of your own deranged conspiracy,

1338
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 1: the whole thing falls apart.

1339
01:07:08,800 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 3: But you know, there's something that happened.

1340
01:07:13,640 --> 01:07:15,959
Speaker 1: Like I said, this isn't new, but it does seem

1341
01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:18,800
Speaker 1: like there's a new level and a new acceptance of

1342
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:21,440
Speaker 1: just any event that happens. It can't just be what

1343
01:07:21,520 --> 01:07:24,880
Speaker 1: it is on its face, like for example, it's hurricane season.

1344
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 1: News flash, like we get hurricanes during hurricane season number one,

1345
01:07:29,960 --> 01:07:33,040
Speaker 1: number two, because the water temperatures are warmer, et cetera,

1346
01:07:33,080 --> 01:07:36,520
Speaker 1: et cetera, you would expect the hurricanes to be more severe.

1347
01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:38,160
Speaker 1: In fact, in a lot of ways, we've kind of

1348
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:41,040
Speaker 1: gotten lucky this hurricane season that there haven't been more

1349
01:07:41,120 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 1: and more frequent and more devastating storms that we've had

1350
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:48,880
Speaker 1: to contend with. Everything has to be somehow, something that

1351
01:07:48,920 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 1: the mainstream media is not telling you, some under the

1352
01:07:51,440 --> 01:07:57,640
Speaker 1: radar thing, some nefarious shadowy or very specific Soros Democrats,

1353
01:07:57,640 --> 01:08:01,440
Speaker 1: et cetera, wrongdoer. And and I do think that it

1354
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:04,760
Speaker 1: escalated posts and Emily, I want to know your thoughts

1355
01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:07,160
Speaker 1: on this, because you knew about HARP and I didn't,

1356
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:09,080
Speaker 1: so you're clearly more read in on these circles than

1357
01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 1: I am. But what I've been thinking is that after Stop,

1358
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:17,040
Speaker 1: this deal was really, you know, became normalized in the

1359
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:20,920
Speaker 1: Republican Party, and in spite of the fact that there

1360
01:08:21,000 --> 01:08:24,560
Speaker 1: was zero evidence that there was actual like election manipulation.

1361
01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:27,599
Speaker 1: I'm talking about changing votes or hiding votes or bringing

1362
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:29,559
Speaker 1: in votes or whatever. I'm not talking about you know,

1363
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,320
Speaker 1: social media companies doing a thing or Pennsylvania change in

1364
01:08:32,320 --> 01:08:35,160
Speaker 1: their laws. I'm talking about like out and out vote rigging.

1365
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:38,000
Speaker 1: There was no evidence for that, and yet you have

1366
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 1: a majority of Republicans who are convinced by Donald Trump,

1367
01:08:43,600 --> 01:08:47,360
Speaker 1: who holds enormous way with majority of the Republican base,

1368
01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:50,360
Speaker 1: to go along with that, and you have you know,

1369
01:08:50,439 --> 01:08:55,120
Speaker 1: whatever influencers were willing, like Cattered or whoever, to also

1370
01:08:55,240 --> 01:08:59,160
Speaker 1: go along with that. They became the new trusted arbiters.

1371
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:02,759
Speaker 1: And so now there's no requirement of any sort of evidence.

1372
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:05,000
Speaker 1: And now whatever those people say, if they could just

1373
01:09:05,040 --> 01:09:07,080
Speaker 1: add to it, like oh, the mainstream media doesn't want

1374
01:09:07,120 --> 01:09:10,479
Speaker 1: you to know, it becomes credibly believed by a really

1375
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:13,920
Speaker 1: large number of people. So it's not this, you know,

1376
01:09:14,120 --> 01:09:16,120
Speaker 1: in a sense, I think it is a fringe, but

1377
01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:20,000
Speaker 1: it's also not a like minuscule number of individuals who

1378
01:09:20,000 --> 01:09:23,240
Speaker 1: are buying into things like, oh, the Democrats made a

1379
01:09:23,320 --> 01:09:26,439
Speaker 1: hurricane to help hurt people in red parts of Florida.

1380
01:09:27,280 --> 01:09:28,280
Speaker 5: Back in twenty twelve.

1381
01:09:28,400 --> 01:09:31,000
Speaker 4: One of the websites that was spreading the harp stuff

1382
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:34,280
Speaker 4: about Sandy was info Worth and Alex Jones is now

1383
01:09:34,400 --> 01:09:36,280
Speaker 4: on tour with Tucker Carlson.

1384
01:09:36,960 --> 01:09:41,280
Speaker 3: I think Tucker was at the R and c rights, right.

1385
01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:43,400
Speaker 4: And so I mean, I think there's something to that.

1386
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:46,559
Speaker 4: There's kind of a mainstreaming and part of it is

1387
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:51,160
Speaker 4: because you know, there have been so many problems with

1388
01:09:51,320 --> 01:09:54,599
Speaker 4: media coverage. So I understand it, and I think Alex

1389
01:09:54,640 --> 01:09:58,160
Speaker 4: Shens is legitimately in Tucker interesting figures. But when you're

1390
01:09:58,200 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 4: at that level and you're Donald Trump, for example, and

1391
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:05,479
Speaker 4: you're going into these places as a kind of cope

1392
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:08,240
Speaker 4: for losing an election, or he was even saying it.

1393
01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:10,640
Speaker 4: HBO has a pretty good documentary out right now. I

1394
01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 4: think it's called Stop the Steal. And when you look

1395
01:10:13,280 --> 01:10:15,559
Speaker 4: back on how Trump was talking about the election before

1396
01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 4: the election even happened, at one point he said, the

1397
01:10:17,600 --> 01:10:20,960
Speaker 4: only way that we'll lose is if it's rigged. When

1398
01:10:20,960 --> 01:10:24,120
Speaker 4: you have the president of the United States saying that,

1399
01:10:24,840 --> 01:10:28,639
Speaker 4: it obviously gives weight and it's obviously something that gives

1400
01:10:28,680 --> 01:10:30,080
Speaker 4: people sort of permission.

1401
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:30,839
Speaker 5: And reason to believe.

1402
01:10:31,479 --> 01:10:33,960
Speaker 4: If you're not somebody that's like, you're not working professionally

1403
01:10:33,960 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 4: in politics, you have a job. You don't have to, like,

1404
01:10:37,080 --> 01:10:40,160
Speaker 4: you can't follow politics obsessively the people who work.

1405
01:10:40,040 --> 01:10:40,680
Speaker 5: In the media do.

1406
01:10:41,000 --> 01:10:43,240
Speaker 4: When the president of the United States says something, it

1407
01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:43,920
Speaker 4: means something.

1408
01:10:44,040 --> 01:10:46,519
Speaker 5: It means that to you, it signals there must be

1409
01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:48,880
Speaker 5: something more to this the president is saying it.

1410
01:10:49,240 --> 01:10:52,000
Speaker 4: So it's easy to see why people have taken some

1411
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:54,600
Speaker 4: of this stuff much more seriously. I think part of

1412
01:10:54,640 --> 01:10:57,599
Speaker 4: it is that we're unlike most of the country on Twitter,

1413
01:10:57,680 --> 01:10:59,200
Speaker 4: so we see a little bit more of it in

1414
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:01,799
Speaker 4: the musk era at the same.

1415
01:11:01,640 --> 01:11:07,479
Speaker 3: Time, and on Facebook lately. Girl, No, I haven't.

1416
01:11:08,200 --> 01:11:11,559
Speaker 4: But the thing I'm gonna say is that when things

1417
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:14,920
Speaker 4: seem inexplicable, like the host of Celebrity Apprentice becoming the

1418
01:11:14,960 --> 01:11:18,800
Speaker 4: President of the United States, yea, we turned to like scapegoats.

1419
01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:22,320
Speaker 4: We turned to these more conspiratorial explanations, or some people do.

1420
01:11:22,760 --> 01:11:25,240
Speaker 4: And that's where I think the Russia stuff came out of.

1421
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:27,880
Speaker 4: Was there has to be a way to explain this

1422
01:11:27,960 --> 01:11:29,439
Speaker 4: because it doesn't make sense otherwise.

1423
01:11:29,520 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 1: Well, I think you have, and we'll table this for now,

1424
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:35,080
Speaker 1: so I'm sure that the topic will come back to again.

1425
01:11:35,200 --> 01:11:41,040
Speaker 1: But you have some really genuine jarring elite institutional failures,

1426
01:11:41,479 --> 01:11:45,920
Speaker 1: right and lies, rock war financial collapse being the two

1427
01:11:45,960 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 1: most obvious, but I'm sure we could point to many

1428
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 1: more as well.

1429
01:11:49,720 --> 01:11:53,679
Speaker 3: And then you layer on top of that.

1430
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:56,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, something inexplicable, like you know, a reality TV show

1431
01:11:56,760 --> 01:11:59,639
Speaker 1: star riding the top. Democrats like this breaks their brain.

1432
01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:01,759
Speaker 1: They can't wrap their head. It's got to be Russia.

1433
01:12:01,760 --> 01:12:05,000
Speaker 1: It's got to be something going on. And then because

1434
01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 1: you have this break in any sort of institutional trust,

1435
01:12:08,280 --> 01:12:11,200
Speaker 1: it just opens up a vacuum for whoever's going to

1436
01:12:11,200 --> 01:12:12,960
Speaker 1: fill that in and be the one who's like, but

1437
01:12:13,120 --> 01:12:16,920
Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you the truth. And Donald Trump

1438
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:20,680
Speaker 1: like there is more affinity. I mean, it is a

1439
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:23,760
Speaker 1: cult of personality around Donald Trump at this point, right,

1440
01:12:23,840 --> 01:12:24,880
Speaker 1: and for.

1441
01:12:24,880 --> 01:12:27,440
Speaker 4: About thirty percent of the Republican electorate, which is significant,

1442
01:12:27,520 --> 01:12:28,920
Speaker 4: like yeah, extremely significant.

1443
01:12:29,080 --> 01:12:33,599
Speaker 1: Yes, And whatever he says like evidence free evidence will

1444
01:12:33,680 --> 01:12:36,559
Speaker 1: like whether it has backing or not, like that's gospel.

1445
01:12:36,720 --> 01:12:39,679
Speaker 1: And then if, like I said, if you have these

1446
01:12:41,680 --> 01:12:44,840
Speaker 1: influencers surrounding him that are backing up everything that he says,

1447
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:48,519
Speaker 1: they become also these like trusted ambassadors, and then whatever

1448
01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:52,200
Speaker 1: they say also goes. And then you have the algorithmic

1449
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:56,599
Speaker 1: and monetary incentives, which are all in the direction of

1450
01:12:56,720 --> 01:13:03,000
Speaker 1: like you know, pushing the Soros harp dumkrat hurricane machine thing. Sure,

1451
01:13:03,000 --> 01:13:04,320
Speaker 1: you're going to get a lot of clicks and a

1452
01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:06,960
Speaker 1: lot of views if you're willing to float that, yep,

1453
01:13:07,080 --> 01:13:09,240
Speaker 1: and like put on some video that purports to show

1454
01:13:09,320 --> 01:13:12,240
Speaker 1: some sort of evidence in that direction. And so then

1455
01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:15,280
Speaker 1: you know, capitalism takes hold in the people's bottom line

1456
01:13:15,320 --> 01:13:18,000
Speaker 1: and their desire for attention and influence and whatever takes

1457
01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:20,200
Speaker 1: over and.

1458
01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:21,439
Speaker 3: There you go. That's what that's how you get where

1459
01:13:21,439 --> 01:13:21,920
Speaker 3: we are now.

1460
01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:22,599
Speaker 5: One hundred percent.

1461
01:13:22,720 --> 01:13:26,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's been a wild I mean when we were

1462
01:13:26,240 --> 01:13:28,120
Speaker 4: even talking about Hofstadt or that was a book written

1463
01:13:28,120 --> 01:13:29,280
Speaker 4: in the mid nineteen fifties.

1464
01:13:29,360 --> 01:13:30,479
Speaker 5: Yeah, we sort of think of that.

1465
01:13:30,720 --> 01:13:33,519
Speaker 4: Some people think of that as like the archetypical like

1466
01:13:33,600 --> 01:13:36,479
Speaker 4: American dream period, but we think of it as at

1467
01:13:36,560 --> 01:13:41,720
Speaker 4: least like sort of old. But technology was crazy, like

1468
01:13:41,800 --> 01:13:44,400
Speaker 4: advancing at a crazy clip in the nineteen fifties, Like

1469
01:13:44,560 --> 01:13:48,000
Speaker 4: that was really unnerving to people. An atomic weapon had

1470
01:13:48,040 --> 01:13:51,160
Speaker 4: just been developed and then dropped in the span of

1471
01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:54,519
Speaker 4: like what twenty years, That had all transpired really quickly.

1472
01:13:54,640 --> 01:13:58,519
Speaker 4: So technology really unsettles people, and especially in the United States,

1473
01:13:58,520 --> 01:14:01,400
Speaker 4: like it just feels puts us through the wringer, and

1474
01:14:01,720 --> 01:14:04,439
Speaker 4: we look to new places for explanations because so much

1475
01:14:04,479 --> 01:14:06,040
Speaker 4: of it we are living in very odd times.

1476
01:14:06,240 --> 01:14:08,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's true. And then yeah, the social

1477
01:14:08,760 --> 01:14:10,759
Speaker 1: media part of this and the sort of the AI

1478
01:14:10,880 --> 01:14:13,840
Speaker 1: fueled part of this, like that definitely plays into it

1479
01:14:13,880 --> 01:14:15,600
Speaker 1: as well. I'm sure there are many other things we

1480
01:14:15,600 --> 01:14:17,439
Speaker 1: could say about it, but in any case, we have

1481
01:14:17,479 --> 01:14:20,080
Speaker 1: a really important guest standing by that we wanted to

1482
01:14:20,080 --> 01:14:23,120
Speaker 1: make sure to get into the show today. Mama Dutel

1483
01:14:23,320 --> 01:14:27,439
Speaker 1: is facing expulsion from Cornell, which would lead to his

1484
01:14:27,600 --> 01:14:31,519
Speaker 1: loss of his foreign student visa, which means he's likely

1485
01:14:31,560 --> 01:14:34,680
Speaker 1: to get deported all over his pro Palestign activism. We

1486
01:14:34,720 --> 01:14:37,479
Speaker 1: wanted to hear his side of the story. As you know,

1487
01:14:37,520 --> 01:14:39,800
Speaker 1: this is all this is all unfolding very quickly and

1488
01:14:39,920 --> 01:14:41,519
Speaker 1: very imminently, so let's go on and get to that.

1489
01:14:44,439 --> 01:14:45,160
Speaker 3: So we've been.

1490
01:14:45,080 --> 01:14:50,080
Speaker 1: Tracking here closely the censorship movement across college campuses, especially

1491
01:14:50,080 --> 01:14:53,280
Speaker 1: with regard to pro Palestinian activism, and today we're really

1492
01:14:53,320 --> 01:14:56,719
Speaker 1: fortunate to be joined by a student who is facing

1493
01:14:56,800 --> 01:15:00,839
Speaker 1: expulsion not only from Cornell University but ultimately from the country,

1494
01:15:00,880 --> 01:15:03,360
Speaker 1: because if he is expelled, he will be he will

1495
01:15:03,360 --> 01:15:06,759
Speaker 1: lose his student Lisa, and will ultimately be deported. Mamadou

1496
01:15:06,840 --> 01:15:10,519
Speaker 1: Teal is a graduate student at Cornell University and joins us.

1497
01:15:10,560 --> 01:15:11,960
Speaker 3: Now, great to see you, so nice to meet you.

1498
01:15:12,800 --> 01:15:14,000
Speaker 6: Thanks for having me, good morning.

1499
01:15:14,160 --> 01:15:16,679
Speaker 1: Yes, of course we can put this Rolling Stone article

1500
01:15:16,760 --> 01:15:20,000
Speaker 1: up on the screen that explains some of what happened here.

1501
01:15:20,040 --> 01:15:22,960
Speaker 1: The headline Cornell grad student who attended pro Palestine protest

1502
01:15:23,360 --> 01:15:26,639
Speaker 1: could be forced to leave you As you told Rolling

1503
01:15:26,640 --> 01:15:29,320
Speaker 1: Stone that they want to make an example out of you,

1504
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:33,639
Speaker 1: you feel that you were singled out for disciplinary action.

1505
01:15:34,360 --> 01:15:36,320
Speaker 3: Could you just tell us a little bit about how

1506
01:15:36,360 --> 01:15:37,080
Speaker 3: this all started?

1507
01:15:38,560 --> 01:15:39,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean where do I begin?

1508
01:15:39,720 --> 01:15:43,479
Speaker 12: I mean, fundamentally, since last year October, we've had a

1509
01:15:43,520 --> 01:15:46,640
Speaker 12: sustained campaign on campus which is calling for a divestment,

1510
01:15:47,120 --> 01:15:52,200
Speaker 12: which is showing solidarity what's happening in Palestine at the moment,

1511
01:15:52,240 --> 01:15:55,880
Speaker 12: in Gaza specifically, and then the most recent iteration of

1512
01:15:55,920 --> 01:15:58,160
Speaker 12: this kind of I believe targeting because I become a

1513
01:15:58,240 --> 01:16:00,559
Speaker 12: visible person and normally key speech that there rallies, and

1514
01:16:00,600 --> 01:16:04,000
Speaker 12: I think people have come to associate a lot of

1515
01:16:04,000 --> 01:16:06,240
Speaker 12: what was happening on campus with me as an individual,

1516
01:16:06,439 --> 01:16:08,400
Speaker 12: even though it's a movement of more than one hundred

1517
01:16:08,400 --> 01:16:10,960
Speaker 12: and fifty two hundred three hundred students right who I

1518
01:16:11,000 --> 01:16:14,200
Speaker 12: regularly attend the protest. This most recent iteration. We had

1519
01:16:14,200 --> 01:16:17,719
Speaker 12: a rally last week outside of administrative building, after which

1520
01:16:17,760 --> 01:16:21,240
Speaker 12: the crowd went into the hotel, which is nearby to

1521
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:23,479
Speaker 12: where the rally was. I spoke at the rally and

1522
01:16:23,520 --> 01:16:27,080
Speaker 12: I followed the crowd. The crowd went inside the hotel

1523
01:16:27,120 --> 01:16:30,160
Speaker 12: wherein there was a recruitment fair in which there was

1524
01:16:30,240 --> 01:16:34,320
Speaker 12: two weapons manufacturers present, Boeing and L three Harris. We

1525
01:16:34,360 --> 01:16:37,840
Speaker 12: went inside after brief encounter of the police. From my perspective,

1526
01:16:37,920 --> 01:16:40,479
Speaker 12: looked like the police just let the people in. I

1527
01:16:40,560 --> 01:16:44,799
Speaker 12: went inside and then I was inside about five minutes

1528
01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:46,840
Speaker 12: and then I left. When I had left, I had

1529
01:16:46,840 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 12: bumped into the Chief of Police, and he has had

1530
01:16:50,080 --> 01:16:52,120
Speaker 12: it out for me, my opinion, since the last semester

1531
01:16:52,200 --> 01:16:53,479
Speaker 12: because of the encampment stuff.

1532
01:16:54,640 --> 01:16:56,280
Speaker 6: Then he kind he made a funny noise at me.

1533
01:16:56,360 --> 01:16:57,160
Speaker 6: He walked past me.

1534
01:16:57,400 --> 01:16:58,960
Speaker 12: Next day, I sees an email from him that I

1535
01:16:58,960 --> 01:17:02,120
Speaker 12: had been referred to the Student Code of Conduct. After that,

1536
01:17:02,240 --> 01:17:04,960
Speaker 12: the Monday, last Monday twenty third, I've seen an email

1537
01:17:05,040 --> 01:17:07,759
Speaker 12: I've been temporarily suspended. I was called into a meeting

1538
01:17:08,080 --> 01:17:10,040
Speaker 12: and in the meeting I was told that okay, I've

1539
01:17:10,080 --> 01:17:12,000
Speaker 12: been temporarily suspended and I.

1540
01:17:12,000 --> 01:17:13,920
Speaker 6: Should contact the senior immigration officer.

1541
01:17:14,120 --> 01:17:15,960
Speaker 12: And then I was informed that I will have no

1542
01:17:16,040 --> 01:17:18,280
Speaker 12: grace period and I have to leave the country promptly

1543
01:17:18,600 --> 01:17:19,920
Speaker 12: if the suspension is upheld.

1544
01:17:20,000 --> 01:17:22,800
Speaker 6: And oh no, at that point, dispension was I was

1545
01:17:22,880 --> 01:17:23,360
Speaker 6: in place.

1546
01:17:23,520 --> 01:17:25,519
Speaker 12: And I think due to the pressure, due to the petition,

1547
01:17:25,600 --> 01:17:27,840
Speaker 12: due to the support, is you know, I'm going for

1548
01:17:27,880 --> 01:17:30,400
Speaker 12: an APO process now, which was not offered to me before.

1549
01:17:31,760 --> 01:17:34,719
Speaker 4: Okay, So that's one interesting question here is the student

1550
01:17:34,760 --> 01:17:35,600
Speaker 4: code of conduct.

1551
01:17:35,720 --> 01:17:37,320
Speaker 5: So tell us what.

1552
01:17:37,200 --> 01:17:39,439
Speaker 4: You're alleged to have violated in the student code of conduct.

1553
01:17:39,439 --> 01:17:41,360
Speaker 4: And then I think a great question for that actually

1554
01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:43,679
Speaker 4: would be with do you disagree with the student code

1555
01:17:43,680 --> 01:17:45,719
Speaker 4: of conduct, because that's a real problem at some schools.

1556
01:17:45,760 --> 01:17:49,520
Speaker 4: Their student codes of conduct are actually overly restrictive of expressions.

1557
01:17:49,600 --> 01:17:51,840
Speaker 4: So tell us your perspective on that.

1558
01:17:51,880 --> 01:17:53,080
Speaker 6: In this case, absolutely so.

1559
01:17:53,080 --> 01:17:56,320
Speaker 12: The official narrative the school saying, and the school said

1560
01:17:56,360 --> 01:18:00,200
Speaker 12: that people pushed past the police, people saying and the

1561
01:18:00,200 --> 01:18:03,240
Speaker 12: police are saying that, you know, people were scared and intimidated. Again,

1562
01:18:03,240 --> 01:18:06,000
Speaker 12: a lot of racialized language. Right, I didn't push you

1563
01:18:06,040 --> 01:18:09,720
Speaker 12: past any police officer. I can say that categorically, and

1564
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:12,080
Speaker 12: I was inside for about five minutes. So what my

1565
01:18:12,320 --> 01:18:15,519
Speaker 12: charge seat says, you were a part of a crowd

1566
01:18:15,520 --> 01:18:18,240
Speaker 12: that pushed past the police, or you will let you

1567
01:18:18,360 --> 01:18:22,720
Speaker 12: let or you repeated chance inside the hotel, and I've

1568
01:18:22,720 --> 01:18:25,639
Speaker 12: just said to okay, if anything, let me see the evidence.

1569
01:18:25,640 --> 01:18:27,479
Speaker 12: And I've had no chance to the evidence. There's been

1570
01:18:27,479 --> 01:18:31,280
Speaker 12: no investigation, there's nothing afforded to me. All I've been

1571
01:18:31,280 --> 01:18:34,640
Speaker 12: told is that my behavior is such a danger to

1572
01:18:34,680 --> 01:18:37,479
Speaker 12: campus that I can't be on campus, which again I

1573
01:18:37,479 --> 01:18:39,720
Speaker 12: don't understand that, because I mean, my ie teacher, I

1574
01:18:39,760 --> 01:18:42,719
Speaker 12: used to teach a class last week, and my kids

1575
01:18:43,040 --> 01:18:46,400
Speaker 12: can testify, my students testify what kind of environment I

1576
01:18:46,400 --> 01:18:49,879
Speaker 12: created the class. And I've even heard from law professors

1577
01:18:49,920 --> 01:18:52,120
Speaker 12: who don't want to be who don't want to be named.

1578
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:54,160
Speaker 12: I've said that when we created a student card of conduct,

1579
01:18:54,400 --> 01:18:57,599
Speaker 12: a temporary suspension was in place for the most egregious acts,

1580
01:18:57,640 --> 01:19:00,479
Speaker 12: for example, not for people just protesting on XIS in

1581
01:19:00,520 --> 01:19:01,200
Speaker 12: the first Amendment?

1582
01:19:01,240 --> 01:19:05,200
Speaker 1: Right, were there other students who were part of this

1583
01:19:05,320 --> 01:19:08,599
Speaker 1: protest who finished, who are facing similar but disciplinary action.

1584
01:19:09,240 --> 01:19:11,840
Speaker 12: So there was about one hundred and fifty students present,

1585
01:19:12,040 --> 01:19:14,479
Speaker 12: as far as I'm aware, for a whole week. I

1586
01:19:14,520 --> 01:19:17,040
Speaker 12: was the only one that was in trouble, and now

1587
01:19:17,080 --> 01:19:19,320
Speaker 12: I've heard I think there's three others now who have

1588
01:19:19,400 --> 01:19:22,840
Speaker 12: received the non academic suspension, which is again the first

1589
01:19:22,880 --> 01:19:25,640
Speaker 12: and foremost the American citizens. And second of all, it

1590
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:28,360
Speaker 12: doesn't mean it doesn't have no implication from other other

1591
01:19:28,520 --> 01:19:30,839
Speaker 12: than than able to be on campus.

1592
01:19:30,840 --> 01:19:32,400
Speaker 6: But they can intend to all their classes still.

1593
01:19:33,200 --> 01:19:35,320
Speaker 4: So I want to ask about something that this writer,

1594
01:19:35,400 --> 01:19:39,040
Speaker 4: Steve McGuire posted on x He was talking about you,

1595
01:19:39,080 --> 01:19:39,880
Speaker 4: and he said, this guy.

1596
01:19:39,760 --> 01:19:41,400
Speaker 5: Is one of the lead protesters at Cornell.

1597
01:19:41,439 --> 01:19:44,240
Speaker 4: When the student government denied his group's divestment resolution, he

1598
01:19:44,280 --> 01:19:47,880
Speaker 4: and others vowed to repeatedly disrupt the campus, which they did.

1599
01:19:48,160 --> 01:19:50,240
Speaker 4: He was suspended last year too. Looks like Cornell might

1600
01:19:50,280 --> 01:19:53,000
Speaker 4: be done messing around. That's what McGuire posted. Can you

1601
01:19:53,040 --> 01:19:56,760
Speaker 4: respond to the allegation that you were vowing to repeatedly

1602
01:19:56,800 --> 01:19:59,320
Speaker 4: disrupt the campus and then again in that context of

1603
01:19:59,360 --> 01:20:03,839
Speaker 4: the student Code conduct conversation, should you be allowed to

1604
01:20:03,880 --> 01:20:06,639
Speaker 4: be disruptive in protest when you feel it's appropriate.

1605
01:20:07,520 --> 01:20:10,120
Speaker 12: I think it's very hypocritical of people like Steve McGuire

1606
01:20:10,120 --> 01:20:11,240
Speaker 12: and also the school itself.

1607
01:20:11,600 --> 01:20:12,839
Speaker 6: I'm in Africana Studies.

1608
01:20:12,880 --> 01:20:16,960
Speaker 12: Africana Studies was the first African and studies established in

1609
01:20:17,040 --> 01:20:20,680
Speaker 12: the United States of America. In nineteen sixty nine, students

1610
01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:24,240
Speaker 12: took arms. It was an armed takeover black by black

1611
01:20:24,280 --> 01:20:29,400
Speaker 12: students to demand the university to allow an Africana Studies

1612
01:20:29,439 --> 01:20:33,360
Speaker 12: center at Cornell, after which after that was established Cornell

1613
01:20:33,600 --> 01:20:35,599
Speaker 12: year in and year out, like the good old liberals

1614
01:20:35,680 --> 01:20:40,200
Speaker 12: always do, add nauseum, talk about the celebration of student

1615
01:20:40,280 --> 01:20:43,240
Speaker 12: protests on campus. They talk about, oh, how big the

1616
01:20:43,320 --> 01:20:47,160
Speaker 12: Vietnam protest was. They talk about how big anti impartheid

1617
01:20:47,200 --> 01:20:50,400
Speaker 12: movement was on Cornell's campus. They celebrate this every year

1618
01:20:50,439 --> 01:20:53,519
Speaker 12: because they can do that retroactively. When students exercise the

1619
01:20:53,640 --> 01:20:56,200
Speaker 12: same thing for something one of the biggest, one of

1620
01:20:56,200 --> 01:20:58,519
Speaker 12: the biggest issues in the world today, they are met

1621
01:20:58,560 --> 01:21:01,680
Speaker 12: with sorts of repression. But again I understand because this

1622
01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:04,400
Speaker 12: issue of Palestine, I keep saying to people, you cannot

1623
01:21:04,400 --> 01:21:08,360
Speaker 12: divorce this from Palestine. Palestine is why is the reason

1624
01:21:08,400 --> 01:21:11,280
Speaker 12: why we're receiving such oppressive tactics against us. So again,

1625
01:21:11,960 --> 01:21:14,280
Speaker 12: a protest is supposed to be disruptive, and.

1626
01:21:14,200 --> 01:21:16,400
Speaker 6: I understand that. Okay, people can balance the needs of

1627
01:21:16,400 --> 01:21:17,080
Speaker 6: other students.

1628
01:21:17,080 --> 01:21:19,800
Speaker 12: But again, there's been no violent behavior, there's been no

1629
01:21:19,880 --> 01:21:23,200
Speaker 12: threatening behavior. For maybe at most you're going to have

1630
01:21:23,200 --> 01:21:25,280
Speaker 12: a thirty minute inconvenience.

1631
01:21:25,560 --> 01:21:27,880
Speaker 1: Mama, Dear, what happens now? What does the time let

1632
01:21:28,160 --> 01:21:30,760
Speaker 1: line look like for you? And are they giving you

1633
01:21:31,520 --> 01:21:35,000
Speaker 1: any chance to at this point appeal this decision?

1634
01:21:35,640 --> 01:21:37,360
Speaker 12: Yeah, I have one more shot and appeal, which I

1635
01:21:37,400 --> 01:21:41,280
Speaker 12: filed last Friday, and I was emailed back by the

1636
01:21:41,320 --> 01:21:44,200
Speaker 12: provost who told me he's committed to an independent review.

1637
01:21:44,640 --> 01:21:46,559
Speaker 12: And he said that the student Code of Conduct doesn't

1638
01:21:46,600 --> 01:21:49,639
Speaker 12: give him any guidance as to or it gives him

1639
01:21:49,640 --> 01:21:55,000
Speaker 12: limited guidance when in regards to temporary suspensions and reviewing them.

1640
01:21:55,200 --> 01:21:56,760
Speaker 12: He told me he'll get back to me next week.

1641
01:21:56,840 --> 01:21:59,400
Speaker 12: So I'm just waiting at the moment. And just to add,

1642
01:22:00,680 --> 01:22:03,639
Speaker 12: Cornell signed a memorandum of agreement with our union, our

1643
01:22:03,640 --> 01:22:06,960
Speaker 12: Grads Worker Union and the union, and Cornell has a

1644
01:22:07,040 --> 01:22:11,080
Speaker 12: legally binding document that says any effects of discipline must

1645
01:22:11,120 --> 01:22:14,880
Speaker 12: go through bargain bargaining. And Cornell is not honoring that

1646
01:22:14,960 --> 01:22:17,000
Speaker 12: legally binding document right now, and it haste to get

1647
01:22:17,080 --> 01:22:17,479
Speaker 12: rid of me.

1648
01:22:18,160 --> 01:22:19,200
Speaker 3: That's a very important point.

1649
01:22:19,280 --> 01:22:21,040
Speaker 4: And let me just ask, like what a lot of

1650
01:22:21,080 --> 01:22:24,360
Speaker 4: detractors on the ride or in the sort of Zionist

1651
01:22:24,520 --> 01:22:27,479
Speaker 4: movement would say is if you you know, if you

1652
01:22:27,600 --> 01:22:30,280
Speaker 4: hate America in the West so much, then why do

1653
01:22:30,360 --> 01:22:32,280
Speaker 4: you want to be a student at Cornell. So I

1654
01:22:32,320 --> 01:22:34,680
Speaker 4: was curious how you would respond to that, Mamadu, like,

1655
01:22:34,720 --> 01:22:37,639
Speaker 4: what is your Why is it important for you to

1656
01:22:37,680 --> 01:22:40,200
Speaker 4: be to be at Cornell and to have your voice heard?

1657
01:22:41,000 --> 01:22:41,240
Speaker 5: Yeah?

1658
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:44,599
Speaker 12: I think I think regardless of my political views, again,

1659
01:22:44,640 --> 01:22:46,799
Speaker 12: I haven't been threatened and I haven't threatened them nobody.

1660
01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:48,799
Speaker 12: I should have a right to be here. I'm studying.

1661
01:22:49,320 --> 01:22:52,760
Speaker 12: I made my way to Cornelly by my work in

1662
01:22:52,800 --> 01:22:55,320
Speaker 12: my third year, plus my my CE exams for my

1663
01:22:55,360 --> 01:22:58,280
Speaker 12: PhD last just two weeks ago. So again, I'm an

1664
01:22:58,360 --> 01:23:01,200
Speaker 12: educational institution in which I have a right to be here.

1665
01:23:01,320 --> 01:23:04,840
Speaker 12: I worked my way to get here. If people are saying,

1666
01:23:05,240 --> 01:23:07,360
Speaker 12: because of your political views, you should not be in

1667
01:23:07,400 --> 01:23:09,200
Speaker 12: a certain place, and I think that's a very slippery

1668
01:23:09,240 --> 01:23:12,040
Speaker 12: slope for not just people with my views, but people

1669
01:23:12,040 --> 01:23:13,240
Speaker 12: with many other views.

1670
01:23:14,040 --> 01:23:17,080
Speaker 1: What can people do if they want to support you?

1671
01:23:17,200 --> 01:23:19,920
Speaker 1: And also also, do you have any regrets you know

1672
01:23:19,920 --> 01:23:22,719
Speaker 1: if you ultimately are supported back to or self support.

1673
01:23:22,760 --> 01:23:24,720
Speaker 1: I guess back to the UK, do you have any

1674
01:23:24,800 --> 01:23:27,160
Speaker 1: regrets about your activism? Would you do anything differently?

1675
01:23:28,760 --> 01:23:31,320
Speaker 12: I think people can help me by writing into the

1676
01:23:31,360 --> 01:23:33,760
Speaker 12: school to the provost. I know there's a petition still

1677
01:23:33,800 --> 01:23:36,559
Speaker 12: going around which I believe you're posting the link description.

1678
01:23:37,360 --> 01:23:41,599
Speaker 12: And as for regrets, then no, I think whatever happens

1679
01:23:41,640 --> 01:23:45,000
Speaker 12: to me, I think it's an unfortunate experience. It will

1680
01:23:45,040 --> 01:23:48,160
Speaker 12: mean significant harm and damage to my own life. But

1681
01:23:48,200 --> 01:23:51,080
Speaker 12: I also think to myself, there's nothing in comparison to

1682
01:23:51,160 --> 01:23:53,599
Speaker 12: what Palestinians are going through, and I can never imagine

1683
01:23:53,640 --> 01:23:56,120
Speaker 12: myself if I do have the fortunate experience to reach

1684
01:23:56,160 --> 01:23:58,639
Speaker 12: my old age, I will never imagine thinking to myself,

1685
01:23:58,680 --> 01:24:01,080
Speaker 12: oh I did too much for because this is just

1686
01:24:01,400 --> 01:24:04,799
Speaker 12: I mean, I haven't I think anyone of good moral

1687
01:24:04,840 --> 01:24:07,519
Speaker 12: conscience cannot see the daily images of what's happening in

1688
01:24:07,560 --> 01:24:09,960
Speaker 12: Palistine and not being moved, So I can never think

1689
01:24:09,960 --> 01:24:11,880
Speaker 12: a day will come and I say to myself, oh

1690
01:24:11,960 --> 01:24:13,559
Speaker 12: I think I went too hot for Palistine book.

1691
01:24:13,560 --> 01:24:14,280
Speaker 6: I don't regret it.

1692
01:24:15,560 --> 01:24:18,240
Speaker 1: Mama du Tal, thank you so much for explaining your

1693
01:24:18,280 --> 01:24:20,639
Speaker 1: story to reviewers this morning, and as you said, we're

1694
01:24:20,640 --> 01:24:22,960
Speaker 1: going to have the petition linked in the descriptions of

1695
01:24:23,000 --> 01:24:24,920
Speaker 1: people want to support you their hot opportunity.

1696
01:24:24,960 --> 01:24:27,639
Speaker 3: Thank you again, Thank you so much. It's a pleasure

1697
01:24:30,560 --> 01:24:30,960
Speaker 3: our own.

1698
01:24:30,960 --> 01:24:35,160
Speaker 1: Emily Tishinski was a guest on Ezra Klein's podcast, which

1699
01:24:35,400 --> 01:24:38,519
Speaker 1: I've been listening to his show a lot recently. In

1700
01:24:38,600 --> 01:24:40,960
Speaker 1: part I gave him a lot of credit for like

1701
01:24:41,040 --> 01:24:44,000
Speaker 1: being early to the hey Democrats, like you really need

1702
01:24:44,000 --> 01:24:47,120
Speaker 1: to move on from Joe Biden. Like you get a

1703
01:24:47,160 --> 01:24:48,400
Speaker 1: lot of cred in my book if you're in a

1704
01:24:48,439 --> 01:24:50,639
Speaker 1: mainstream space and you have that, And you get even

1705
01:24:50,640 --> 01:24:52,960
Speaker 1: more credit if you're willing to have Emily on. So

1706
01:24:53,760 --> 01:24:55,800
Speaker 1: tell us a little bit about, you know, what you

1707
01:24:55,840 --> 01:24:57,880
Speaker 1: were booked to talk about, what your experience.

1708
01:24:57,560 --> 01:25:00,760
Speaker 4: Was like, Yeah, you know, I actually met producer at

1709
01:25:00,760 --> 01:25:03,519
Speaker 4: the National Conservatism Conference where I was talking back in

1710
01:25:03,600 --> 01:25:07,519
Speaker 4: June about online pornography. Oddly enough, it just started like

1711
01:25:07,560 --> 01:25:11,160
Speaker 4: how as one does, as one does. It was it's

1712
01:25:11,240 --> 01:25:13,840
Speaker 4: kind of like the conversation we were just having about conspiracy

1713
01:25:13,880 --> 01:25:17,080
Speaker 4: theories a couple of blocks ago, because it just it's

1714
01:25:17,160 --> 01:25:20,439
Speaker 4: come about really quickly and sort of a younger perspective

1715
01:25:20,439 --> 01:25:22,840
Speaker 4: and how that changed people's lives, modernity and all of

1716
01:25:22,840 --> 01:25:24,680
Speaker 4: that stuff, So as I wanted to talk about that

1717
01:25:24,800 --> 01:25:28,479
Speaker 4: kind of in the context of realignment stuff, so sort

1718
01:25:28,479 --> 01:25:32,519
Speaker 4: of where this new right national conservatism movement is to

1719
01:25:32,520 --> 01:25:36,680
Speaker 4: some extent rooted in discomfort with modernity and how it's

1720
01:25:36,720 --> 01:25:41,000
Speaker 4: actually like working, like how it's manifesting, how it plausible

1721
01:25:41,000 --> 01:25:43,599
Speaker 4: it is as a political movement, and how the sort

1722
01:25:43,600 --> 01:25:45,680
Speaker 4: of Trump of it all affects the future of the right.

1723
01:25:45,840 --> 01:25:48,720
Speaker 4: So we had a really interesting conversation, and honestly, I

1724
01:25:48,760 --> 01:25:52,400
Speaker 4: was a little unsure because not everybody is Crystal and Ryan,

1725
01:25:52,479 --> 01:25:55,040
Speaker 4: you know, like not everybody is you know, and you know,

1726
01:25:55,080 --> 01:25:57,519
Speaker 4: I remember on Kyle Crystaline Friendsly, we had a great

1727
01:25:57,560 --> 01:26:00,880
Speaker 4: conversation and not it's always you.

1728
01:26:00,840 --> 01:26:01,760
Speaker 5: Never know what you're going to get.

1729
01:26:01,840 --> 01:26:03,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, but as.

1730
01:26:02,960 --> 01:26:05,559
Speaker 5: There's been like he's a good faith he operates in

1731
01:26:05,600 --> 01:26:06,000
Speaker 5: good faith.

1732
01:26:06,080 --> 01:26:09,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he pushed you in a number of areas, absolutely.

1733
01:26:08,840 --> 01:26:12,160
Speaker 1: But it led to that, you know, that led to

1734
01:26:12,200 --> 01:26:14,840
Speaker 1: a really interesting exchange. There was one portion we wanted

1735
01:26:14,840 --> 01:26:17,759
Speaker 1: to play for you guys where he asked about Project

1736
01:26:17,800 --> 01:26:21,240
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five and like, okay, obviously Trump doesn't want

1737
01:26:21,240 --> 01:26:23,519
Speaker 1: to talk about this and wants to distance himself from this,

1738
01:26:23,640 --> 01:26:26,920
Speaker 1: but our liberals really wrong to feel like, Okay, this

1739
01:26:26,960 --> 01:26:29,639
Speaker 1: is the plan that's laying around in the sort of

1740
01:26:29,680 --> 01:26:30,280
Speaker 1: like you know.

1741
01:26:30,320 --> 01:26:34,280
Speaker 3: Conservative Washington d date. So isn't this very aren't they?

1742
01:26:34,360 --> 01:26:36,439
Speaker 1: Isn't it reasonable to say this is probably a lot

1743
01:26:36,439 --> 01:26:37,559
Speaker 1: of what is actually going to happen?

1744
01:26:37,600 --> 01:26:39,600
Speaker 3: And in Trump administration, Let's take a listen at what

1745
01:26:39,640 --> 01:26:40,400
Speaker 3: Emily had to say.

1746
01:26:40,720 --> 01:26:43,400
Speaker 13: So let's ground this a little bit in Donald Trump. So,

1747
01:26:43,680 --> 01:26:47,559
Speaker 13: if he wins in twenty twenty four, which seems very possible,

1748
01:26:48,560 --> 01:26:51,920
Speaker 13: he's got to govern with some kind of coalition. And

1749
01:26:51,960 --> 01:26:53,439
Speaker 13: I think one of the problems he's had this year

1750
01:26:53,760 --> 01:26:56,160
Speaker 13: is that sort of Project twenty twenty five stepped in

1751
01:26:56,240 --> 01:26:58,360
Speaker 13: to try to describe what that would look like for him,

1752
01:26:58,600 --> 01:27:02,240
Speaker 13: and he's I think whish is they had not. But

1753
01:27:02,320 --> 01:27:05,479
Speaker 13: he's not identified an alternative way he would govern if

1754
01:27:05,520 --> 01:27:07,200
Speaker 13: it's not going to be these groups who are vetting

1755
01:27:07,240 --> 01:27:09,639
Speaker 13: all these people to work with him, and all these

1756
01:27:09,640 --> 01:27:11,599
Speaker 13: people who already did work with him, Like, who's it

1757
01:27:11,640 --> 01:27:14,840
Speaker 13: going to be? So when you think about a next

1758
01:27:14,880 --> 01:27:18,920
Speaker 13: Trump administration and when you report on it, how do

1759
01:27:18,960 --> 01:27:23,120
Speaker 13: you think it would differ in its coalition or its

1760
01:27:23,520 --> 01:27:25,880
Speaker 13: priorities than the first Trump administration.

1761
01:27:26,960 --> 01:27:29,800
Speaker 4: The genesis of Project twenty twenty five. And you've probably

1762
01:27:29,880 --> 01:27:32,120
Speaker 4: picked up on this, Azra, but even just talking to

1763
01:27:32,160 --> 01:27:35,559
Speaker 4: people who were involved in it journalistically, you hear them

1764
01:27:35,720 --> 01:27:39,000
Speaker 4: and it was this idea that Donald Trump just he's

1765
01:27:39,000 --> 01:27:41,479
Speaker 4: not a man of the conservative movement. He doesn't come

1766
01:27:41,520 --> 01:27:44,080
Speaker 4: in with the infrastructure. That was part of the reason

1767
01:27:44,120 --> 01:27:46,800
Speaker 4: that conservatives pushed him to pick Mike Pence. Because Mike

1768
01:27:46,840 --> 01:27:49,040
Speaker 4: Pence as VP knew all of the heads of the

1769
01:27:49,040 --> 01:27:52,320
Speaker 4: conservative movement groups, where you would tap personnel and staff from,

1770
01:27:52,360 --> 01:27:54,240
Speaker 4: where you would tap the white papers from. He kind

1771
01:27:54,280 --> 01:27:57,200
Speaker 4: of knew where to look to get people and policies.

1772
01:27:57,720 --> 01:28:02,400
Speaker 4: And because Trump's orbit hadn't become, you know, substantially more

1773
01:28:02,560 --> 01:28:07,479
Speaker 4: cohesive or policy centric, people really started to say, all right,

1774
01:28:07,960 --> 01:28:09,920
Speaker 4: we need something like a Project twenty twenty five. This

1775
01:28:10,040 --> 01:28:13,320
Speaker 4: ultimately became Project twenty twenty five because this isn't organized,

1776
01:28:13,479 --> 01:28:16,200
Speaker 4: and that's why a Project twenty twenty five and Heritage

1777
01:28:16,240 --> 01:28:18,040
Speaker 4: also have something called I think it's called like the

1778
01:28:18,040 --> 01:28:20,680
Speaker 4: one hundred Day Agenda that hasn't been made public yet.

1779
01:28:20,720 --> 01:28:23,719
Speaker 4: It's internal I've never seen it, but it's the executive

1780
01:28:23,760 --> 01:28:24,439
Speaker 4: orders that should be.

1781
01:28:24,479 --> 01:28:26,880
Speaker 5: Ready to go on day one.

1782
01:28:27,000 --> 01:28:29,000
Speaker 4: It was this idea that there's nothing like we're having

1783
01:28:29,080 --> 01:28:31,960
Speaker 4: all of these debates, but we're not putting any of

1784
01:28:31,960 --> 01:28:35,479
Speaker 4: it into sort of a hard agenda. A lot of

1785
01:28:35,520 --> 01:28:37,920
Speaker 4: Project twenty twenty five, this is something that hasn't been reported,

1786
01:28:37,920 --> 01:28:40,080
Speaker 4: but a lot of it is like debates internally. There's

1787
01:28:40,200 --> 01:28:43,120
Speaker 4: there's one policy that's outlined about a child tax credit,

1788
01:28:43,120 --> 01:28:45,040
Speaker 4: and then another policy that's outlined about.

1789
01:28:44,880 --> 01:28:45,799
Speaker 5: A child tax credit.

1790
01:28:45,960 --> 01:28:48,760
Speaker 4: Heels that none of this is even being facilitated, and

1791
01:28:49,040 --> 01:28:52,720
Speaker 4: that because Project twenty twenty five has become such a

1792
01:28:52,920 --> 01:28:56,080
Speaker 4: lightning rod, the ball has not moved further down the

1793
01:28:56,080 --> 01:28:58,960
Speaker 4: field on that question. The Trump campaign sort of haphazardly

1794
01:28:58,960 --> 01:29:02,400
Speaker 4: tried to put out its own agenda. Trump still is Trump, though,

1795
01:29:02,439 --> 01:29:04,360
Speaker 4: and goes back and forth. And this is probably the

1796
01:29:04,400 --> 01:29:06,200
Speaker 4: central problem of the new Right that we keep coming

1797
01:29:06,240 --> 01:29:08,800
Speaker 4: back to time and again, is that he doesn't have

1798
01:29:08,840 --> 01:29:11,479
Speaker 4: a cohesive ideology, and in a way, he's more similar

1799
01:29:11,520 --> 01:29:13,120
Speaker 4: to a lot of average Americans.

1800
01:29:13,600 --> 01:29:17,519
Speaker 1: Ezra floated an idea I think after this in the

1801
01:29:17,560 --> 01:29:20,599
Speaker 1: podcast that I hadn't contemplated before. The assumption in liberal

1802
01:29:20,680 --> 01:29:22,320
Speaker 1: circles is like Trump is going to be worse this

1803
01:29:22,360 --> 01:29:24,479
Speaker 1: time because he's going to have a shit together basically,

1804
01:29:24,520 --> 01:29:26,519
Speaker 1: and so like all the craziest stuff that he wanted

1805
01:29:26,560 --> 01:29:28,000
Speaker 1: to do last time, but he couldn't really get his

1806
01:29:28,040 --> 01:29:30,400
Speaker 1: act together to do this time. They got their ducks

1807
01:29:30,400 --> 01:29:32,280
Speaker 1: in a row, They've got their loyalists. They're going to

1808
01:29:32,400 --> 01:29:33,639
Speaker 1: you know, fire the deep state.

1809
01:29:33,640 --> 01:29:35,440
Speaker 3: They're going to install the Trump loyalists.

1810
01:29:35,520 --> 01:29:38,599
Speaker 1: And if there was to be a January sixthtal event

1811
01:29:38,680 --> 01:29:41,040
Speaker 1: this time around, they would have the you know, the

1812
01:29:41,080 --> 01:29:43,880
Speaker 1: people at the State Department and wherever to actually seize

1813
01:29:43,920 --> 01:29:44,840
Speaker 1: the ballot boxes, et.

1814
01:29:44,840 --> 01:29:45,559
Speaker 3: Cetera, et cetera.

1815
01:29:46,120 --> 01:29:49,120
Speaker 1: And he says, you know, but there is an alternative possibility,

1816
01:29:49,160 --> 01:29:52,800
Speaker 1: which is that he's actually more chaotic and less competent

1817
01:29:53,240 --> 01:29:56,040
Speaker 1: because now you have all of these different factions that

1818
01:29:56,120 --> 01:29:58,479
Speaker 1: have developed that are fighting for control of what the

1819
01:29:58,479 --> 01:30:01,000
Speaker 1: Trump agenda is going to be. And I was curious

1820
01:30:01,000 --> 01:30:02,599
Speaker 1: if you could elaborate more on your.

1821
01:30:02,439 --> 01:30:02,960
Speaker 3: Thoughts on that.

1822
01:30:03,240 --> 01:30:05,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't want to rule out either possibility,

1823
01:30:05,280 --> 01:30:07,120
Speaker 4: but I also think, and we talked about this a

1824
01:30:07,160 --> 01:30:09,719
Speaker 4: little bit, there are not enough people in the world,

1825
01:30:10,240 --> 01:30:14,559
Speaker 4: let alone sort of professional Republican political spaces, to staff

1826
01:30:14,720 --> 01:30:19,759
Speaker 4: an agenda like what a sort of extreme Trump agenda

1827
01:30:19,760 --> 01:30:21,120
Speaker 4: would look like or I should even say like an

1828
01:30:21,160 --> 01:30:22,519
Speaker 4: extreme conservative agenda.

1829
01:30:22,600 --> 01:30:24,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, because you need to fill the.

1830
01:30:24,280 --> 01:30:26,720
Speaker 4: So called like deep state spaces. Not only do you

1831
01:30:26,760 --> 01:30:29,200
Speaker 4: need to like fire everybody that's in them now, you

1832
01:30:29,240 --> 01:30:31,400
Speaker 4: then need to bring new people in to at least

1833
01:30:31,400 --> 01:30:34,040
Speaker 4: staff some of them. And the Trump administration we saw

1834
01:30:34,160 --> 01:30:36,120
Speaker 4: last time, this was part of Project twenty twenty five

1835
01:30:36,120 --> 01:30:39,200
Speaker 4: to two, they would they just had a really hard

1836
01:30:39,240 --> 01:30:43,200
Speaker 4: time a getting certain things past the bureaucracy, which as

1837
01:30:43,200 --> 01:30:45,639
Speaker 4: a conservative I look at and I'm like, that tells

1838
01:30:45,680 --> 01:30:47,920
Speaker 4: you the president is not ultimately in charge. Like that's

1839
01:30:47,920 --> 01:30:51,479
Speaker 4: a legitimate problem, and you've seen it even play out.

1840
01:30:51,560 --> 01:30:53,439
Speaker 4: Ryan and I have talked about this before in ways

1841
01:30:53,479 --> 01:30:55,520
Speaker 4: that really are shocking.

1842
01:30:55,120 --> 01:30:55,759
Speaker 5: From the left.

1843
01:30:55,880 --> 01:30:59,400
Speaker 4: If you have a left policy that the EPA doesn't

1844
01:30:59,439 --> 01:31:01,519
Speaker 4: want to actually fulfilled because you have a bunch of

1845
01:31:01,600 --> 01:31:04,519
Speaker 4: careers who have been there and have been through the

1846
01:31:04,560 --> 01:31:07,040
Speaker 4: revolving door with special interests in all of that stuff,

1847
01:31:07,320 --> 01:31:11,200
Speaker 4: I think that's a legitimate problem. But that aside, if

1848
01:31:11,240 --> 01:31:15,360
Speaker 4: you can't at least replace some of those people, you

1849
01:31:15,400 --> 01:31:18,320
Speaker 4: can't really do much because you're just going to be hampered.

1850
01:31:18,400 --> 01:31:18,559
Speaker 5: Now.

1851
01:31:18,640 --> 01:31:22,439
Speaker 4: On the other hand, at the executive level. That's a

1852
01:31:22,520 --> 01:31:26,040
Speaker 4: huge question because Donald Trump learned a big lesson from

1853
01:31:26,120 --> 01:31:30,160
Speaker 4: his side with Mike Pence, and he thinks that Jade

1854
01:31:30,200 --> 01:31:32,519
Speaker 4: Vance will not be a Mike Pence if we have

1855
01:31:32,560 --> 01:31:35,639
Speaker 4: another January sixth, and that was part of creating these

1856
01:31:35,680 --> 01:31:40,080
Speaker 4: new loyalty litmus tests. And I just don't I don't

1857
01:31:40,120 --> 01:31:42,439
Speaker 4: know that we have the answer to that question, actually,

1858
01:31:42,560 --> 01:31:46,000
Speaker 4: because politicians are ultimately self interested creatures, and if Jade

1859
01:31:46,040 --> 01:31:48,800
Speaker 4: Vance is sort of reading the tea leaves on a

1860
01:31:48,840 --> 01:31:52,160
Speaker 4: potential January sixth, I don't know. I think you have

1861
01:31:52,200 --> 01:31:56,120
Speaker 4: to stress test. And on the other hand, though at

1862
01:31:56,160 --> 01:31:59,519
Speaker 4: the executive level, Donald Trump will not make the mistake,

1863
01:31:59,680 --> 01:32:02,599
Speaker 4: as he sees it, of putting more Mike Pences around him.

1864
01:32:02,960 --> 01:32:06,480
Speaker 4: But there aren't that many people in professional Republican spaces

1865
01:32:06,640 --> 01:32:10,879
Speaker 4: that are hardcore MAGA and they might they might be publicly,

1866
01:32:11,240 --> 01:32:13,760
Speaker 4: but privately they don't want to be roped into those

1867
01:32:13,760 --> 01:32:16,240
Speaker 4: situations because they still don't know what happens after.

1868
01:32:16,080 --> 01:32:21,760
Speaker 1: Trump, right, which sort of illuminates the fact that there

1869
01:32:21,760 --> 01:32:24,680
Speaker 1: are two types of true believers. Mike Pence was a

1870
01:32:24,680 --> 01:32:27,320
Speaker 1: true believer in a certain way, but not a true believer.

1871
01:32:27,800 --> 01:32:30,320
Speaker 1: And when it came down to it, right, So he

1872
01:32:30,360 --> 01:32:33,240
Speaker 1: was a true believer and I mean all the policies, like,

1873
01:32:33,280 --> 01:32:35,840
Speaker 1: he was on board. He was the one in the

1874
01:32:35,880 --> 01:32:38,599
Speaker 1: meeting when they said, tell us something great about Donald Trump.

1875
01:32:38,680 --> 01:32:40,960
Speaker 3: He's the first thing is that mostly is the best president,

1876
01:32:41,200 --> 01:32:42,599
Speaker 3: so amazing hard.

1877
01:32:42,960 --> 01:32:44,559
Speaker 4: You know, he hung in there with him on the

1878
01:32:44,560 --> 01:32:48,519
Speaker 4: election stuff, that's right, until he wouldn't certain he wouldn't

1879
01:32:48,560 --> 01:32:51,200
Speaker 4: do the like he wouldn't do the Claremont and State

1880
01:32:51,240 --> 01:32:52,080
Speaker 4: John Eastman plan.

1881
01:32:52,439 --> 01:32:53,400
Speaker 5: But he hung in there.

1882
01:32:53,479 --> 01:32:55,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, until j he was willing to give credence to like,

1883
01:32:56,120 --> 01:32:58,759
Speaker 1: oh maybe these lawsuits, you know, maybe this was rigged

1884
01:32:58,840 --> 01:33:01,720
Speaker 1: and so so I mean he but he got to

1885
01:33:01,760 --> 01:33:04,320
Speaker 1: his breaking point. So in Trump's view, he ends up

1886
01:33:04,360 --> 01:33:07,240
Speaker 1: not being a true believer. He's hoping JD vance. Like

1887
01:33:07,280 --> 01:33:09,680
Speaker 1: I think the critical threshold for JD isn't about his

1888
01:33:09,760 --> 01:33:14,240
Speaker 1: policy views, of which Trump seems relatively uninterested. It's his

1889
01:33:14,360 --> 01:33:17,599
Speaker 1: belief that when it came down to January sixth, he

1890
01:33:17,640 --> 01:33:19,880
Speaker 1: would do what Mike Pence was unwilling to do.

1891
01:33:20,320 --> 01:33:22,599
Speaker 3: So there's two types of true believers.

1892
01:33:22,720 --> 01:33:25,000
Speaker 1: There's like the people who would be like, yeah, I

1893
01:33:25,080 --> 01:33:27,519
Speaker 1: believe in a ten percent tariff across the board, and

1894
01:33:27,560 --> 01:33:30,000
Speaker 1: I'm willing to make waves and piss people off and like,

1895
01:33:30,080 --> 01:33:33,719
Speaker 1: you know, use my agency's powers to effectuate that outcome.

1896
01:33:34,320 --> 01:33:36,599
Speaker 3: And that's one type of true believer.

1897
01:33:36,760 --> 01:33:39,639
Speaker 1: And then there's the type of true believer that will say, yes, sir,

1898
01:33:39,720 --> 01:33:42,400
Speaker 1: I will throw the country into a constitutional crisis based

1899
01:33:42,400 --> 01:33:45,160
Speaker 1: on literally nothing and you know, be okay with this

1900
01:33:45,320 --> 01:33:45,960
Speaker 1: violence at the.

1901
01:33:45,880 --> 01:33:47,040
Speaker 3: Capitol and whatever.

1902
01:33:47,680 --> 01:33:51,960
Speaker 1: And I think it's harder to vet for that second

1903
01:33:52,000 --> 01:33:54,639
Speaker 1: type totally a true believer, because I think he probably

1904
01:33:54,680 --> 01:33:57,559
Speaker 1: believed that Mike Pence was that second type.

1905
01:33:57,400 --> 01:34:00,320
Speaker 3: Of true believer right up until that day.

1906
01:34:00,400 --> 01:34:02,559
Speaker 1: I mean, he was reportedly pressuring him all the way

1907
01:34:02,640 --> 01:34:05,400
Speaker 1: up and still thinking he said, I think at his

1908
01:34:05,720 --> 01:34:07,920
Speaker 1: you know, infamous speech like well, let's hope Mike Pence

1909
01:34:07,960 --> 01:34:08,639
Speaker 1: does the right thing.

1910
01:34:08,840 --> 01:34:09,040
Speaker 6: Yep.

1911
01:34:09,240 --> 01:34:12,000
Speaker 1: So he still thought up until that moment that Mike

1912
01:34:12,040 --> 01:34:16,160
Speaker 1: Pence potentially was that type of just you know, throw

1913
01:34:16,200 --> 01:34:18,360
Speaker 1: out the constitution and do whatever I tell you to

1914
01:34:18,600 --> 01:34:19,160
Speaker 1: true believer.

1915
01:34:19,360 --> 01:34:20,400
Speaker 5: And what's interesting about JD.

1916
01:34:20,520 --> 01:34:22,840
Speaker 4: Vance And this is the conversation you guys have talked

1917
01:34:22,840 --> 01:34:24,679
Speaker 4: to him, so you've picked up on this, I'm sure,

1918
01:34:24,720 --> 01:34:27,439
Speaker 4: but he is like a sincere postliberal. I think one

1919
01:34:27,439 --> 01:34:29,439
Speaker 4: of the mistakes the left makes about jd Vance has

1920
01:34:29,479 --> 01:34:32,280
Speaker 4: said that he's just pro Trump for opportunistic purposes, but

1921
01:34:32,360 --> 01:34:34,960
Speaker 4: he really when he converted to Catholicism. He has like

1922
01:34:35,000 --> 01:34:37,040
Speaker 4: a multi thousand word essay on this in the Catholic

1923
01:34:37,120 --> 01:34:41,320
Speaker 4: publication of the Lamp. It's very fully fleshed out sincere

1924
01:34:41,479 --> 01:34:46,080
Speaker 4: postliberal worldview, and what postliberal in that context means is

1925
01:34:46,120 --> 01:34:49,639
Speaker 4: that sometimes you sort of this is a simplification, of course,

1926
01:34:49,640 --> 01:34:54,080
Speaker 4: but yeah, sometimes the Constitution has limits, right, sometimes there

1927
01:34:54,120 --> 01:34:59,160
Speaker 4: are sort of illiberal ends that are just, And so

1928
01:34:59,600 --> 01:35:02,559
Speaker 4: that is sincerely how belief that Janey Vance has now

1929
01:35:02,720 --> 01:35:04,800
Speaker 4: how that pertains to the Constitution in any sort of

1930
01:35:04,800 --> 01:35:07,840
Speaker 4: different context is an open question, but it does tell

1931
01:35:07,880 --> 01:35:11,040
Speaker 4: you that he comes from the sort of Patrick denin orbit,

1932
01:35:11,280 --> 01:35:16,640
Speaker 4: where the Constitution isn't the sort of sacred almost like

1933
01:35:16,760 --> 01:35:19,840
Speaker 4: holy text that a lot of the conservative movement thought

1934
01:35:19,840 --> 01:35:22,519
Speaker 4: that it was, that there are these arguments that can

1935
01:35:22,520 --> 01:35:24,920
Speaker 4: be made that it can sort of be stretched in

1936
01:35:25,000 --> 01:35:29,640
Speaker 4: emergency circumstances, et cetera. So that could mean there's a

1937
01:35:29,640 --> 01:35:32,479
Speaker 4: difference on January sixth between Mike Pencer jd Vance, but

1938
01:35:32,560 --> 01:35:33,439
Speaker 4: it also couldn't.

1939
01:35:33,800 --> 01:35:36,080
Speaker 5: So it's like fascinating question.

1940
01:35:36,320 --> 01:35:39,400
Speaker 1: I the way you articulated it, I think is not

1941
01:35:39,880 --> 01:35:42,240
Speaker 1: particularly different from how I view jd.

1942
01:35:42,360 --> 01:35:42,719
Speaker 3: Vance.

1943
01:35:42,920 --> 01:35:46,519
Speaker 1: I think his embrace of Trump is in that, like

1944
01:35:47,120 --> 01:35:48,439
Speaker 1: it's very convenient for him.

1945
01:35:48,600 --> 01:35:50,440
Speaker 3: Yeah that at the moment when he wants.

1946
01:35:50,200 --> 01:35:53,880
Speaker 1: To run for senator and has national political ambitions, suddenly he's,

1947
01:35:53,960 --> 01:35:57,680
Speaker 1: you know, a big Trump fan. I think that's opportunistic

1948
01:35:58,560 --> 01:36:02,480
Speaker 1: because of he does believe you put this more diplomatically,

1949
01:36:02,520 --> 01:36:04,799
Speaker 1: but in some sense he believes, like the ends justify

1950
01:36:04,840 --> 01:36:07,120
Speaker 1: the means, and if the means are posing up to

1951
01:36:07,160 --> 01:36:09,200
Speaker 1: this guy that I once said might be America's Hitler,

1952
01:36:09,800 --> 01:36:12,200
Speaker 1: then I'll do it. If the means are like, you know,

1953
01:36:12,400 --> 01:36:16,200
Speaker 1: lying about Patians eating pets in the town that I represent,

1954
01:36:17,000 --> 01:36:20,559
Speaker 1: I'll do that. If the means are potentially like, you know,

1955
01:36:20,680 --> 01:36:23,960
Speaker 1: doing what Mike Pence wouldn't do on January sixth, if

1956
01:36:24,040 --> 01:36:26,599
Speaker 1: it's going to help me accomplish the ends that I

1957
01:36:26,720 --> 01:36:30,720
Speaker 1: genuinely believe are better, superior, et cetera, yeah, I'll do

1958
01:36:30,800 --> 01:36:34,479
Speaker 1: that too. And so that's so in that sense, I

1959
01:36:34,520 --> 01:36:38,320
Speaker 1: believe I think he's a true believer about the ideological

1960
01:36:38,400 --> 01:36:40,679
Speaker 1: view that he holds. Do I think it's a true

1961
01:36:40,720 --> 01:36:42,600
Speaker 1: believer in all the like, you know how much he

1962
01:36:42,680 --> 01:36:44,800
Speaker 1: loves Trump now and thinks Trump's so great, et cetera,

1963
01:36:44,840 --> 01:36:48,639
Speaker 1: et cetera. No, because it's very was very politically convenient

1964
01:36:48,720 --> 01:36:50,800
Speaker 1: the way that that all went down. But do I

1965
01:36:50,840 --> 01:36:54,360
Speaker 1: think that he views Trump as the tool, the nearest

1966
01:36:54,479 --> 01:36:58,040
Speaker 1: vessel for his own ideological ambitions.

1967
01:36:58,439 --> 01:36:59,679
Speaker 3: Yes, I believe that, And.

1968
01:36:59,600 --> 01:37:01,639
Speaker 5: That was the critical distinction.

1969
01:37:01,720 --> 01:37:03,320
Speaker 4: I mean, I think that's what happened to a lot

1970
01:37:03,360 --> 01:37:06,559
Speaker 4: of people on the right, especially after Michael Anton, who

1971
01:37:06,600 --> 01:37:08,920
Speaker 4: was anonymous at the time but wrote the Flight ninety

1972
01:37:08,920 --> 01:37:09,400
Speaker 4: three election.

1973
01:37:09,479 --> 01:37:11,360
Speaker 3: I think this is October of twenty sixteen.

1974
01:37:11,479 --> 01:37:13,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was the beginning of this conversion for a

1975
01:37:13,680 --> 01:37:16,200
Speaker 4: lot of sort of the intellectual conservative world, who said,

1976
01:37:16,320 --> 01:37:20,000
Speaker 4: we are in illiberal times, so we can't use liberalism

1977
01:37:20,160 --> 01:37:22,280
Speaker 4: as the tool to return to and this is like

1978
01:37:22,320 --> 01:37:26,360
Speaker 4: classical liberalism, so small l we can't use liberal means

1979
01:37:26,680 --> 01:37:30,240
Speaker 4: to get back to this like classical liberal utopia that

1980
01:37:30,320 --> 01:37:33,519
Speaker 4: we want to return to. We have to sometimes say

1981
01:37:33,560 --> 01:37:36,479
Speaker 4: Donald Trump may be illiberal, but Hillary Clinton is more liberal,

1982
01:37:37,160 --> 01:37:40,760
Speaker 4: or Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is worse because they

1983
01:37:40,760 --> 01:37:42,679
Speaker 4: want to do X, Y and Z, so you have.

1984
01:37:42,600 --> 01:37:43,599
Speaker 5: To stick with this person.

1985
01:37:43,720 --> 01:37:45,679
Speaker 4: The plane's going down, you have to take the risk.

1986
01:37:46,040 --> 01:37:48,360
Speaker 4: And Jadvance is very much in that camp, and there

1987
01:37:48,360 --> 01:37:50,400
Speaker 4: are a lot of sort of intellectual conservatives in that

1988
01:37:50,439 --> 01:37:51,160
Speaker 4: camp right now.

1989
01:37:51,439 --> 01:37:52,719
Speaker 5: But what that doesn't mean.

1990
01:37:52,800 --> 01:37:55,519
Speaker 4: Is that they make a very particular decision come another

1991
01:37:55,600 --> 01:37:58,160
Speaker 4: January sixth, and that's a stand in for other potential

1992
01:37:58,160 --> 01:38:02,280
Speaker 4: constitutional emergencies and that Donald Trump could pursue from an

1993
01:38:02,280 --> 01:38:07,280
Speaker 4: executive levels as president. But really there he would he

1994
01:38:07,560 --> 01:38:11,720
Speaker 4: on after the twenty twenty election, lacked people around him

1995
01:38:11,840 --> 01:38:14,200
Speaker 4: who would go through with what he wanted. I mean

1996
01:38:14,200 --> 01:38:16,120
Speaker 4: a lot of people actually ended up quitting have since

1997
01:38:16,200 --> 01:38:18,200
Speaker 4: like spilled a lot of dirt on him. Yeah, and

1998
01:38:18,400 --> 01:38:21,759
Speaker 4: he was left with Sidney Powell, Rudy Giuliani and whatever

1999
01:38:21,760 --> 01:38:27,400
Speaker 4: the other Lynn Woold Mike Lindell and they're just jd

2000
01:38:27,560 --> 01:38:31,240
Speaker 4: Vance is not going to go full Sidney Powell. So

2001
01:38:32,080 --> 01:38:34,760
Speaker 4: who knows what happens, But it was I think it's

2002
01:38:34,760 --> 01:38:36,680
Speaker 4: helpful to kind of talk some of that stuff.

2003
01:38:36,400 --> 01:38:39,800
Speaker 5: Out because you just we don't know. There's still just

2004
01:38:39,840 --> 01:38:41,679
Speaker 5: so much uncertainty about what happens.

2005
01:38:41,760 --> 01:38:45,360
Speaker 1: Would you describe that news strain in thinking, which you

2006
01:38:45,400 --> 01:38:49,120
Speaker 1: know is amplified by Anton embraced by Jade Vance, etcetera.

2007
01:38:49,160 --> 01:38:52,200
Speaker 1: I mean, would you describe that as anti democratic? Basically, like, listen,

2008
01:38:52,240 --> 01:38:54,800
Speaker 1: if we have to like not be a democracy for

2009
01:38:54,840 --> 01:38:59,080
Speaker 1: a little while to yeah, accomplish our ends, then that's

2010
01:38:59,080 --> 01:38:59,720
Speaker 1: what we're going to do.

2011
01:39:00,000 --> 01:39:03,000
Speaker 4: Well. Anton has actually written about how we need a

2012
01:39:03,000 --> 01:39:05,840
Speaker 4: red Caesar, like a quote red Caesar, and so yeah,

2013
01:39:05,880 --> 01:39:08,600
Speaker 4: absolutely there. And Curtis Yarburn, for example, is basically like

2014
01:39:08,640 --> 01:39:11,960
Speaker 4: a monarchist. I don't know where JD probably wouldn't fall

2015
01:39:12,000 --> 01:39:14,680
Speaker 4: into that category, but that was the sort of.

2016
01:39:14,720 --> 01:39:16,040
Speaker 3: He's somewhere on that spectrum though.

2017
01:39:16,200 --> 01:39:18,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's frustrating because like sometimes like I'll I

2018
01:39:19,000 --> 01:39:21,719
Speaker 4: signed the National Conservatism Statement when it came out because

2019
01:39:21,720 --> 01:39:24,720
Speaker 4: it was pretty boilerplate conservatism as I saw it. But

2020
01:39:25,800 --> 01:39:30,000
Speaker 4: at the same time this I really really really empathize

2021
01:39:30,040 --> 01:39:32,640
Speaker 4: with and understand postliberalism and think that it has a

2022
01:39:32,640 --> 01:39:35,440
Speaker 4: lot of better points than the sort of old fusionist

2023
01:39:35,479 --> 01:39:38,960
Speaker 4: conservative order when it comes to identifying problems. But I

2024
01:39:39,080 --> 01:39:41,519
Speaker 4: fundamentally am like not on board with the post liberal

2025
01:39:41,600 --> 01:39:43,960
Speaker 4: solutions to the problems of contemporary liberalism.

2026
01:39:44,000 --> 01:39:45,640
Speaker 5: And that's what's sort of frustrating sometimes.

2027
01:39:45,360 --> 01:39:47,160
Speaker 4: Because you get lumped in with one or the other

2028
01:39:47,200 --> 01:39:49,120
Speaker 4: and the people every one do you actually think it's like, well,

2029
01:39:49,120 --> 01:39:50,360
Speaker 4: I think these problems are real.

2030
01:39:50,680 --> 01:39:53,160
Speaker 5: I just think this is we don't need a red Caesar, Like,

2031
01:39:53,360 --> 01:39:56,120
Speaker 5: please don't tell me that we need a red caesar.

2032
01:39:56,320 --> 01:39:59,920
Speaker 5: So it's such a crazy time on the right. Crazy.

2033
01:40:00,800 --> 01:40:04,120
Speaker 1: Well, this has been very interesting, fact to you, this

2034
01:40:04,240 --> 01:40:07,720
Speaker 1: only I actually feel like I understand your political ideology

2035
01:40:07,760 --> 01:40:10,719
Speaker 1: perhaps better than I ever have. And I really recommend

2036
01:40:10,800 --> 01:40:13,200
Speaker 1: some people that you listen to the full episode of

2037
01:40:13,240 --> 01:40:16,840
Speaker 1: Emily with Ezra, because I'm at least really you know,

2038
01:40:16,920 --> 01:40:22,200
Speaker 1: fascinated by what Jdvans represents and what is after trump

2039
01:40:22,320 --> 01:40:25,360
Speaker 1: Ism and what are the rising intellectual currents on the

2040
01:40:25,439 --> 01:40:27,400
Speaker 1: right and what they mean for for all of us,

2041
01:40:27,400 --> 01:40:29,679
Speaker 1: And they dig into a lot of that. So we'll

2042
01:40:29,680 --> 01:40:31,840
Speaker 1: have the link in the description you guys can check

2043
01:40:31,920 --> 01:40:34,559
Speaker 1: all of that out. Thank you so much for hanging

2044
01:40:34,600 --> 01:40:37,439
Speaker 1: with us on a whirlwind day here. Reminder, we are

2045
01:40:37,439 --> 01:40:40,200
Speaker 1: going to do a live stream coverage of the debate.

2046
01:40:40,280 --> 01:40:41,920
Speaker 1: Will be here like I don't know, an hour, early

2047
01:40:42,000 --> 01:40:43,560
Speaker 1: hour and a half early something like that, so we

2048
01:40:43,600 --> 01:40:46,040
Speaker 1: can all speculate and then see whatever.

2049
01:40:46,120 --> 01:40:50,160
Speaker 5: Still to have a drink, maybe I don't know. I get,

2050
01:40:50,360 --> 01:40:51,360
Speaker 5: we'll bring you some ghosts.

2051
01:40:51,400 --> 01:40:53,960
Speaker 1: I don't really drink at all now, so when I

2052
01:40:54,040 --> 01:40:55,280
Speaker 1: even have one drink, it.

2053
01:40:55,360 --> 01:40:59,759
Speaker 3: Can slobby real fast. It gets slobby real fast. So anyway,

2054
01:41:00,160 --> 01:41:01,120
Speaker 3: we'll see if that happens.

2055
01:41:01,160 --> 01:41:03,240
Speaker 1: But you know, I love for us to do an

2056
01:41:03,280 --> 01:41:05,920
Speaker 1: hour beforehand where we can all make predictions that immediately

2057
01:41:05,960 --> 01:41:09,000
Speaker 1: get just like demolished in real time. So that's what

2058
01:41:09,040 --> 01:41:11,880
Speaker 1: we'll I'll be here doing tomorrow night, and we hope

2059
01:41:11,920 --> 01:41:12,639
Speaker 1: to see you guys there