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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Friday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and I'm sorry to

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Speaker 1: report that our streak came to an end last night.

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Speaker 1: You know what stinks about the fact that we did

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Speaker 1: not hit our fifteenth consecutive play of the day, that

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Speaker 1: we won three of the five bets and we went

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Speaker 1: two and one on the NBA player props. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: this was bound to happen two days prior. I got

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Speaker 1: one bet right, and the one bet that I got

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Speaker 1: right was the play of the day. So this was

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Speaker 1: bound to just the gambling gods and just the law

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Speaker 1: of averages. We're going to kick in here. So we

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Speaker 1: wind up going three and two on the day. Under

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Speaker 1: McCollum does not hit. That was the play of the day.

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Speaker 1: Recha sche comes in. Under won a unit there on

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Speaker 1: the r I guess we wont less of that. We

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Speaker 1: one point whatever point for one units. The Iowa state, sorry,

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Speaker 1: the Illinois, the the SIU and Indiana state. Under was

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Speaker 1: dead wrong. That game flew over. It's like one ninety

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Speaker 1: we were dead wrong there. But Illinois State was very

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Speaker 1: effective against Missouri State, beat him up pretty good, won

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Speaker 1: the game going away there. So three and two in

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Speaker 1: the day, up point three to one units for back

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Speaker 1: to back winning days for us here on the juice.

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Speaker 1: But play the day comes to a end. So look,

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Speaker 1: it was awesome and let's start a new streak. Right,

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Speaker 1: let's get into it. So, I've got two NBA I

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Speaker 1: have two college basketball bets, I have one college basketball

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Speaker 1: future I want to give you, and I have two

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Speaker 1: NBA player props because we have to keep going a

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Speaker 1: little bit with the NBA player We'll slow down a

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Speaker 1: little bit here, but we got to get involved with

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Speaker 1: the NBA player props, keep it rolling here for us.

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Speaker 1: So I got two one over and one under for

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Speaker 1: you guys here today for the podcast. But before I

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Speaker 1: give you those picks and plays, let me remind you

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Speaker 1: of how you guys can win a signed Alan iverson

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia seventy six or Jersey. If you want your chance

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Speaker 1: to win this, it's very easy. This from our friends

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Speaker 1: at Pristineauction dot com. All you have to do is

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now and

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Speaker 1: then drop a comment below on any of our Daily

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Speaker 1: Juice videos and that's it. We will be announcing the

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Speaker 1: winner right here on the podcast on March the eighteenth,

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Speaker 1: So make sure you turn on those notifications so you

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Speaker 1: can be alerted as to when new videos are dropped

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Speaker 1: and you can claim your prize. Subscribe to the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel and leave a comment here on this

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice video and you could win a signed Alan

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Speaker 1: iverson Philadelphia seventy six ers, Jersey. It's easy to do,

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Speaker 1: just two easy steps to enter into this contest. By

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Speaker 1: the way, I haven't announced the Nick Chubb helmet yet.

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Speaker 1: They haven't told me who won it yet, so hold

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Speaker 1: on like I'll get to that probably tomorrow be able

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Speaker 1: to give it to you guys on the Saturday episode

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Speaker 1: of The Dealer Juice. I'll give that to you guys,

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Speaker 1: so you can have it. One more thing. I told

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Speaker 1: you about this yesterday, and this is a another benefit

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Speaker 1: for you guys who are actually watching or listening to

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Speaker 1: the full podcast and not fast forwarding through the full podcast.

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Speaker 1: I've got the offer, but I have more to explain

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Speaker 1: to you for the trial. If you would like to

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Speaker 1: check out the prop bit cheat sheet or the prop

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Speaker 1: bet Analyzer. Now, I did tell you last night that

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot Com slash trial would get you. That works. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's a free seven day trial. However, there are a

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Speaker 1: couple of other things you could be doing. One, download

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Speaker 1: the Betting pros app. Okay, it's easier to download the

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Speaker 1: Betting pros app and use the promo code Juice to

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Speaker 1: also get a seven day trial. So two different ways

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Speaker 1: you can do it. The easiest way is to download

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Speaker 1: the Betting pros app, use the promo code Juice. There

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Speaker 1: it's going to work for iOS and for Android the

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Speaker 1: link which only works for iOS. Okay, so if you're

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Speaker 1: on your phone you type that in, it's not going

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Speaker 1: to work for Android. It's going to work for iOS.

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Speaker 1: Most of you guys are using iOS, but just in

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Speaker 1: case there's some of you are not and you're on

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Speaker 1: an Android, that wouldn't have worked last night. So that's

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Speaker 1: my fault for doing that, so I apologize for giving

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Speaker 1: that out. The best way for both iOS and Android

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Speaker 1: is to go and download the Betting pros app, use

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Speaker 1: the promo code Juice when it gives you a chance

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Speaker 1: to sign up for a free trial. When it comes

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Speaker 1: to registering, it should be in the prompt on the app,

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Speaker 1: so both of them do work. Okay, you can go

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Speaker 1: and do it with bettingpros dot com slash trial or

90
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Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros app use the promo code juice

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Speaker 1: when you sign up for the app and get the

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Speaker 1: app and to ask you when it register You can

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Speaker 1: get a seven day free trial with both of those

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Speaker 1: things from us. So you guys can check out the

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Speaker 1: prop pit cheat sheet and make up your own ideas

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Speaker 1: and plays and plans and thoughts as to how you

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Speaker 1: want to do it when it comes to betting on

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Speaker 1: MBA college basketball, whatever you might do, or build a

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Speaker 1: system or two. We'll do a Sunday session later on

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Speaker 1: that as to what it means to build a system,

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Speaker 1: so stay tuned for all of that. Okay, let's start

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Speaker 1: talking about the place. Let's start with Arch Madness. I'm

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Speaker 1: surprised that all you, some of you guys in the

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Speaker 1: comment section, it was the first time you've ever heard

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Speaker 1: me call it, or anyone anyone called Arch madness. It's

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Speaker 1: March madness, but it's in Saint Louis, so they've called

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Speaker 1: it arch madness ever since I've been going which is

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Speaker 1: dating back to two thousand and four, it's been called

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Speaker 1: Arch madness. I think it was called way Arch madness

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Speaker 1: way before even that. So this has been a long

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Speaker 1: time thing for the Missouri Valley Conference being played in

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis. But the bracket, like I told you, Drake

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Speaker 1: is the one seed. The first game of the day

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Speaker 1: is Drake up against Southern Illinois. Southern Illinois. It's it

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Speaker 1: eight and a half or nine point number, Okay, I

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Speaker 1: want the first half. Nobody's got it up yet. I

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Speaker 1: gotta wait. No one has Southern Illinois plus the points

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Speaker 1: in the first half. It should be four, five or six.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure which one's going to be. Okay, But

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Speaker 1: Southern played Drake earlier this year and they were down

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Speaker 1: twenty eight twenty seven at the break. Now the game

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Speaker 1: was played at Southern, Okay. So, but the way that

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Speaker 1: Southern shot the basketball yesterday, and I mean they were

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Speaker 1: on fire yesterday. The fact that that game eighty six

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Speaker 1: eighty five, I mean, they were unreal. Southern Illinois just

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Speaker 1: simply could miss, but neither could I mean Indiana State

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Speaker 1: for that matter. But they shot twenty seven for forty

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Speaker 1: six on two point shots. That's a fifty eight percent clip.

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Speaker 1: They shot nine of twenty one from behind the three

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Speaker 1: point line. That's it's a forty two point nine percent clip,

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Speaker 1: forty three percent from behind the arc. All right, Indian

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Speaker 1: State wasn't awful either. They shot thirty eight percent ten

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Speaker 1: of twenty six from behind the arc, and they shot

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Speaker 1: twenty to thirty four. That's fifty nine percent from the field.

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Speaker 1: Both teams couldn't miss. But the fact that Southern has

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Speaker 1: played a game on this court and they obviously liked

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Speaker 1: shooting on this court. I don't want to play the

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Speaker 1: full game, but I think Drake might get pushed here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: but I want to play the first half. And again,

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Speaker 1: there's not a number out here for this game, but

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Speaker 1: what happens. It's the first game of the day. It's

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Speaker 1: a sleepy environment. That didn't matter obviously for the under

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Speaker 1: and that game against Southern Indiana State, the game flew over.

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Speaker 1: But when it comes to just being comfortable, yes, Drake

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Speaker 1: beat Southern by ten in the first matchup, and that's

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Speaker 1: why the number is nine. Kempum has it as a

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Speaker 1: ten point win. But I want first half. I want

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Speaker 1: Southern's best game. I want Southern to come in here

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Speaker 1: in shoot the basketball, and I think Southern's going to

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Speaker 1: have a chance here. It's a seventy one sixty one

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Speaker 1: loss according to kempom. But offensively, Southern shot way over

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Speaker 1: their head. But they're a good three pointing shooting team

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Speaker 1: thirty five point three percent from behind the yarc. That's

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Speaker 1: ninety seventh best in college basketball. Drake's defense is one

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Speaker 1: hundred and first in two point sorry in three point defense,

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Speaker 1: and they're three hundredth in two point defense. Efficiency wise,

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Speaker 1: I mean they're good sixty second in adjusted efficiency, but

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Speaker 1: effective field goal percentage defensively, Drake is bad. They're two

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty second. So if Southern shoots the basketball

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Speaker 1: the way they shot the ball, and I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: it carries over cause this day. It's two different days,

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Speaker 1: two different games. But in the first half, I think

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Speaker 1: Southern is going to feel like, you know what, we

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Speaker 1: hung with these guys. We got a shot to knock

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Speaker 1: out Drake in the first game. I've seen the one

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Speaker 1: seed get pushed even overtime and sometimes lose this thing

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Speaker 1: Drake for a lot of these kids. For Drake, this

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Speaker 1: is the first time playing in Arch madness. And while

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Speaker 1: a lot of them have tournament experience, this is in

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis. For Southern Illinois, they're gonna have fans there.

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Speaker 1: It's not gonna be anywhere near like it was. It's

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Speaker 1: a one o'clock Eastern time tip. Southern will have fans

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Speaker 1: in the building. Drake will too. Drake will have a

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Speaker 1: ton Okay, it'll be more Drake than Southern, but it

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Speaker 1: won't be just all Drake. Southern fans will show up.

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Speaker 1: I want Southern in the first half, Okay, I can't

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Speaker 1: give you the number. I gotta give it to you

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Speaker 1: on the Discord channel. I don't know what it is, Okay,

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Speaker 1: there's no one with it up at the moment. We're

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Speaker 1: taping here at eleven to fifteen Pacific time. I waited

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Speaker 1: as long as I could, and there's nobody with this

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Speaker 1: number up yet. So in the morning, let's see what

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Speaker 1: it is. But we want over one possession. As long

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Speaker 1: as it's over one possession, I'm good three four, four

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Speaker 1: and a half summer in that range. Take Southern Illinois

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Speaker 1: plus the points in the first half up against Drake,

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Speaker 1: and you guys know I love Drake. You can bet

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Speaker 1: Drake for the game if you want. I don't mind that.

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Speaker 1: I love Drake. I think Drake absolutely belongs in the dance,

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Speaker 1: But I think Southern could have a chance to be

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Speaker 1: in the game at halftime. Here with Southern and Drake,

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Speaker 1: Southern plus two points in the first half for one

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Speaker 1: point one units. Let's stay in the Missouri Valley Game two.

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Speaker 1: I haven't touched the bottom part of the bracket. This

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Speaker 1: is still the top part of the bracket. But Illinois

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Speaker 1: State against Belmont game's a pick Illinois State. This is

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Speaker 1: a one point lost to Belmont according to kempom. But

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Speaker 1: I told you yesterday that I really like Illinois State's draw.

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Speaker 1: They killed Missouri State, who stinks. Belmont does not stink. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna no way. They have a bye for

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Speaker 1: a reason. Okay. They went thirteen and seven in the

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Speaker 1: Missouri Valley Conference. They won their last three games against

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Speaker 1: Indiana State, Murray's, Missouri State, and Murray State. Not exactly

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Speaker 1: a murderer's row if you asked me. They lost in

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Speaker 1: Northern Iowa at home, and their last like game that

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Speaker 1: was supposed to test them, they lost eighty two to

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Speaker 1: seventy five. They played up against up against decent competition

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Speaker 1: in the non conference. Nothing outstanding, nothing great like Richmond

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Speaker 1: at two forty Milisseley State in one eighteen Furman they

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Speaker 1: lost to lil and Marimont they lost to But the

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Speaker 1: Redbirds beat Belmont. Now it was at home, but they

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Speaker 1: beat Belmont in the one meeting they had this season.

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Speaker 1: They beat him eighty one to seventy eight. So here

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Speaker 1: we are with another game in which I think it's

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Speaker 1: I mean, Belmont's in Nashville. Okay, They're not gonna have

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Speaker 1: many fans there. Okay, this is a pretty good height

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Speaker 1: to get to Saint Louis for what could we only

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Speaker 1: one game on a Friday afternoon, Like Belmont would have

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Speaker 1: their band there and their cheutors there. But I think

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Speaker 1: Illinois State, the Redbirds will have fans and the red Birds, look,

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Speaker 1: they've already played a game on this court. Belmont has not.

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Speaker 1: Illinois State played really well on the scot. I think

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Speaker 1: it's a huge advantage in a coin flip type basketball

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Speaker 1: game that Illinois State has played a game. They're not

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Speaker 1: gonna have tired legs. They're still playing with adrenaline. Illinois State,

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Speaker 1: give me the pick them money line. Illinois State to win.

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Speaker 1: I like them to advance. As I said, I think

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Speaker 1: Illinois State is gonna have a chance to go up

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Speaker 1: against Drake and push them. Okay, I think Illinois State

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Speaker 1: beats Belmont here and then I think Drake will win eventually,

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Speaker 1: but I think, you know, Southern's gonna push him. But

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Speaker 1: I think Drake wins. And then Saturday afternoon we'll have

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Speaker 1: Drake in Illinois State, which would be a tremendous game.

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Speaker 1: We've got Bradley in Northern Iowa coming up in the

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Speaker 1: early part or sorry, in the late part of the

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Speaker 1: Valley Tournament coming up, and I just think it's it's

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Speaker 1: a lot of fun right now. I mean, if you

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Speaker 1: ever watched Arch Madness, I can't truss it enough. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's a ton of fun. Murray State won seventy four

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Speaker 1: to fifty three tonight, and then Valpo came in and

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Speaker 1: beat Illinois Chicago. I mean that's you know, that's a shock.

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Speaker 1: I mean a dead that's a big win. That's an

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Speaker 1: eleven seed going ahead and knocking out I might come

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Speaker 1: in and take Northern Iowa up against Valpereiso. That's a

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's a big break for you and I

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Speaker 1: that the UIC lost that game, and then Bradley will

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Speaker 1: come in here and take on Murray State, who won

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Speaker 1: seventy four to fifty three. I don't know what the

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Speaker 1: heck happened to Evansville, but Evansville was only eight and

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Speaker 1: twelve in the Missouri Valley this year. Murray State nine

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Speaker 1: and eleven. I would expect Bradley and Northern Iowa both

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Speaker 1: to win in advance. So then you're gonna wind up

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Speaker 1: with a one five potentially one five two three bottom

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Speaker 1: of the bracket. And I mean Bradley and Northern Iowa

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Speaker 1: playing each other is a huge break for Drake. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's a gigantic break if if Drake can get past

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Speaker 1: Illinois State, Belmont, whoever they are, Southern, you know whoever

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Speaker 1: they go wind up playing to have the meeting in

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Speaker 1: the final on Sunday, Big deal CBS Sports with the

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Speaker 1: final for Arch Madness at the Enterprise Center. So Illinois

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Speaker 1: State pick them, and I've taken first half Southern Illinois

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Speaker 1: plus the points up against Drake. Now let's talk one

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Speaker 1: future Saint Mary's. Saint Mary's and the weirdness of the

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Speaker 1: West Coast Conference. So the West Coast conference puts the

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Speaker 1: one seed in the two seed into a triple by situation.

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Speaker 1: The one seed is Saint Mary's, the two seed is Gonzaga.

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Speaker 1: They're both gonna play on Monday in the semi finals.

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Speaker 1: The championship game for the West Coast Conference is on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: It's the oddest conference tournament that exists. Okay, it's literally

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Speaker 1: set up to make sure that Gonzaga plays in the final.

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Speaker 1: Gonzaga has lost both games to Saint Mary's this year.

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Speaker 1: The theory is it's hard to beat a team three times.

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Speaker 1: In reality, that's not the case. In the reality, the

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Speaker 1: team that's won the first two games wins about sixty

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Speaker 1: sixty five percent of the time the team that's won

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Speaker 1: that time, and that's more than what you normally see

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Speaker 1: in college basketball. This is plus one fifty five at

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Speaker 1: FanDuel for Saint Mary's to win the West Coast Conference. Look,

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Speaker 1: we may very well come back and take Gonzaga if

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Speaker 1: Gonzaga is favored in the West Coast Conference championship game. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I mean there's a chance that Gonzaga could wind up,

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Speaker 1: you know, being misus one minus two. They were favored

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Speaker 1: in the earlier games, and they lost outright to Saint Mary's.

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Speaker 1: Saint Mary's is the better basketball team, and Saint Mary's

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Speaker 1: is much better defensively as well, so you can just

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Speaker 1: let it ride too. I think Saint Mary's wins. You

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Speaker 1: have the one seed that's already beaten the two seed

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Speaker 1: two times and they're plus one fifty five. That's wrong, Fanjul,

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Speaker 1: I mean, draftkus is at one forty, Vandel's one fifty five.

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Speaker 1: Give me one unit plus one fifty five on Saint

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Speaker 1: Mary's to win the West Coast Conference tournament. Heck, we

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Speaker 1: may be able to hedge off that in game and

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Speaker 1: take plus points on Gonzaga and maybe hit both bets.

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Speaker 1: So Saint Mary's plus one fifty five to win the

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Speaker 1: West Coast Conference tournaments for one unit here today, All right,

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Speaker 1: let's talk NBA and let's talk player props prop bed

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet time. Let's go to Nick Smith Junior. Nick

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Speaker 1: Smith Junior of the Hornets. They're hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers. Points, rebounds,

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Speaker 1: and assists. For Nick Smith Junior, this is a five

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Speaker 1: star play. Is a plus twenty one positive ev up

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Speaker 1: against a top ten defense here in the Cleveland Cavaliers

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00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,040
Speaker 1: head to head wise This has only come in thirty

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Speaker 1: three percent of the time. The number is eighteen and

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Speaker 1: a half. The projection is twelve for Nick Smith Junior, points,

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Speaker 1: rebounds and assists now at seventeen and a half. In

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Speaker 1: his last game against Minnesota, it went over. He had

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Speaker 1: eleven points, four rebounds, three assists, eighteen over. But against

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Speaker 1: Golden State he had eighteen and a half. As the

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Speaker 1: number he only had seven, six points, one assist. Two

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Speaker 1: games prior he had nineteen and twenty two went over.

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Speaker 1: But the three games prior thirteen, sixteen, eighteen all under

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Speaker 1: eighteen and a half and nineteen and a half went

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Speaker 1: over against Denver. For the two previous games he went

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Speaker 1: under at seventeen and a half and twenty and a

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Speaker 1: half he had six and fifteen. There are some games

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Speaker 1: where he just flat out disappears. Last two games he

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Speaker 1: didn't get over eighteen and a half. He had eighteen

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Speaker 1: and he had seven. The projection is for twelve here

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Speaker 1: for Nick Smith Junior. We're gonna come in and bet

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Speaker 1: the under on Nick Smith Junior under points, rebounds and

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Speaker 1: assists for him here to tonight, We're gonna go with

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Speaker 1: against Cleveland. Here for Nick Smith Junior, that's one of

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Speaker 1: the top. He actually is the largest point projection differential

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Speaker 1: on the propa bet cheat sheet for tonight so far.

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Speaker 1: Propaet Chiacheet likes Nick Smith under everything points and assists,

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Speaker 1: under points and rebounds under He's a popular play here

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Speaker 1: for the prop bet chea cheat all the unders on

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Speaker 1: Nick Smith Junior. Now let's talk about deeron Fox. Deeron

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Speaker 1: Fox is ice cold. He has gone under his points,

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Speaker 1: rebounds and assists number his last five games. So it

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Speaker 1: was set between thirty one and a half and thirty

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Speaker 1: six and a half over the last five sorry six

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Speaker 1: games under them all. In some games I mean he

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Speaker 1: scored twenty points. He had twenty points, four rebounds and

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Speaker 1: four assists. Up against OKC the number was thirty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. He played thirty four minutes, didn't go over.

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Speaker 1: Against Brooklyn, thirty three and a half was the number.

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Speaker 1: He had fifteen points, seven assists and three rebounds. He

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Speaker 1: had twenty five way under prop bet cheat Chet says

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Speaker 1: this number has finally gone down far enough because Sacramento

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Speaker 1: defensively is not good. Prop bet cheat sheets projecting a

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Speaker 1: thirty six points, rebounds and assists night for Dearon Fox

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Speaker 1: of the San Antonio Spurs. Thirty one and a half

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Speaker 1: is the prop for Dearon Fox. We've gotten to the

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Speaker 1: point where we're pretty darn low. Okay, Like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: this thing has been as high as thirty six and

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Speaker 1: a half. It just keeps on going down, keeps on

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Speaker 1: going down, keeps on going down. Prop bet cheat Sheet says, okay,

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Speaker 1: this is far enough down. The last time he went

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Speaker 1: over thirty seven up against Detroit. Now head to head wise,

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Speaker 1: this has been a somewhat of a productive a decent

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Speaker 1: bet here for de Aaron Fox. Not recently, but historically speaking,

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Speaker 1: he's gone over this number the majority of the time.

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Speaker 1: He's gone over and gone over up against the Cleveland

355
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Speaker 1: Cavalli Sorry sorry, up against Sacramento as well, talking about

356
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,439
Speaker 1: does not play defense like we know. Prop bet chi

357
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 1: Chi says, this goes over. Let's ride it. Dearn Fox

358
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 1: over thirty one and a half points, rebounds and assists

359
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 1: nearly a five projected differential between what the propat Chichi

360
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Speaker 1: think is going to happen versus what the prop is.

361
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Speaker 1: He's ice five star play. It's a po positive ev

362
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Speaker 1: play here with Daron Fox over let's jump on that

363
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 1: with points, rebounds and assist for dearon Fox. All right,

364
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Speaker 1: so plays four today Illinois State pick them in Arch

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Speaker 1: Madness at minus one ten one point one units down

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Speaker 1: Southern Illinois first half against Drake plus the points whatever

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Speaker 1: that is. Saint Mary's to win the West Coast Conference

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Speaker 1: at plus one fifty five, one unit down on that

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Speaker 1: that will be played next week. Nick Smith Junior points

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00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 1: rebounds and assists under eighteen and a half and dearon

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Speaker 1: Fox points, rebounds and assists over thirty one and a

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Speaker 1: half at minus one twenty. My name is Matt Parol.

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Speaker 1: You guys following me gouts all my socials at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt every single morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice