1 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: Hot fucking Moses. Welcome to it could happen here. The 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: podcast that is sometimes introduced by me Robert Evans, other 3 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: times it's introduced by James Stout or Mia Wong, who 4 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: are both on the call today. How's everybody doing pretty good? 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: We've we've we've declared victory over the balloon. Yeah we 6 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: we Finally the f twenty two gets its first air 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: to air kill. Yeah yeah yeah later we we we 8 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 1: did it. Guys, we did it. We really killed. Like 9 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: the FAY two is like God's perfect killing machine. Yeah, 10 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: and it's thus it is like it is a six 11 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: was like seven billion dollar aircraft. Completely, it is a 12 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 1: it is afect air. It is a perfect air superiority craft, 13 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: which in modern warfare makes it slightly less useful than 14 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: an eight hundred and fifty dollar d J i'd drone 15 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: with hand grenades. Yea fairly express. I cannot think of 16 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: like a better metaphor to understand how the U. S. 17 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: Army works than shooting using using a sixties seven billion 18 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: dollar aircraft to shoot a three hundred and sixty one 19 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 1: dollar missile at a balloon, just like listen several balloons 20 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: in his life. A really not this high up. It 21 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: is extremely entertaining. And yeah, I can't fault that pilot. 22 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: I am deeply disappointed in rural America that no crazy 23 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: rich guy with a cessna flew his friend with a 24 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 1: fifty cow up to like drop that why the seventeen 25 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 1: incinerator was invented for this specific instance. And yeah, we've 26 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: been let down again. Anyway, what are we talking about today? Mia? 27 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: Obviously we're talking about the balloon a little bit, and 28 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: then we're going to talk about something more interesting, which 29 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: is the sort of history of US China relations and 30 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: how it's not what everyone thinks it is. I've been 31 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: led to believe by the media that there is nothing 32 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: more interesting than the balloon and that we should be 33 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: focusing all our coverage on the balloon. That's true. There 34 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: have been other balloons. There are now a fifth balloon. 35 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: Has it towers? Okay? So yeah, let's let's go Yeah. 36 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: So okay, So I want to start off by, like, 37 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit about the balloon, 38 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: which is that Okay, So we have the American Army's claim, 39 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: but this is a surveillance balloon. There's a there's a 40 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: chance it which just was a random balloon, Like I 41 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: don't know. I I don't want to completely discount the 42 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: fact that it was a balloon. I do want to 43 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about sort of balloon surveillance stuff though, 44 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: because I've seen a lot of people both on the 45 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: left and also on the right who are just like, 46 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: why would anyone ever have a spy balloon? It's like, okay, 47 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: so it's talk a little bit. In order to do this, 48 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: we need to talk a little bit about surveillance satellites, 49 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: which I come from a family of astronomers, and one 50 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: of the sort of dark secrets of astronomy is that 51 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: the stuff you point up also be pointed back down again. 52 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: And yeah, yeah, so and you know, one of the 53 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: other things about this is a lot of the companies 54 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 1: that make telescopes to make the lenses for that are 55 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: companies that work heavily with the n r O, which 56 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 1: is the National Reconnaissance Office, which is a genuinely terrifying 57 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: organization with an unfathomable black budget to dedicated to just 58 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: like spying on people from aircrafts and from space and 59 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: more people. More people should be like, we we have 60 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: a lot of like people are scared of the n 61 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: s A. People are scared of the CIA, but more 62 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: people should be scared of the n r O because 63 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:25,519 Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, that stuff is who but on the other head. Okay, 64 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: so the n ROW has a bunch of satellites, right. 65 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: But the thing about satellites that they move. Okay, you 66 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: can't prove that. I will, I will prove I will, 67 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: I will, I will, I will do a war thunder, 68 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: I will post classic live underneath of dome. And satellites 69 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: are stationary. The dome rotates in a clockwise direction around them, 70 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: and that's responsible for the illusion of motion in the heavens. Sure, yes, 71 00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: there's no competing response today owned so okay, all right, 72 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: So the satellite satellites move. They move in stable, addictable orbits, 73 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: and this means a few things, right. One of the 74 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: things that it means is that a satellite is only 75 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: over the area you wanted to cover for a limited 76 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: amount of time because it's you know, the satellites moving 77 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: around the Earth, right, um. And this means that you know, 78 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: you can you can calculate their orbits, and you can 79 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,359 Speaker 1: calculate when they're going to be in range of whatever 80 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: they want to look at, and you know, and this 81 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: means you can do things like, for example, figuring out 82 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: where the satellite is going to be in hiding whatever 83 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: you're working out when they pass this. This is how 84 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: the CIA, that's how the CIA completely missed India's nuclear 85 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: weapons program. Is that they do when that they didn't 86 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: do when the flies the Spice satellites you're flying over, 87 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: they just hid all their weapons equipment and the CIA 88 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: never figured out they were building dukes. Well actually not 89 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 1: based bad, but but yeah, it's very funny. Yeah, yeah, 90 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 1: but what do they do? Did they just painted like 91 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: a hot dog o something and just be like they 92 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 1: just like put torps over it. The satellite came around, 93 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: and then they build things under ground. It's very funny. 94 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: I passioning the world's biggest hot dog eyed day in 95 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: case someone else does. Yeah, I think Jamie Loftus actually 96 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: might if you beat to that. Don't have to do 97 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: all to the deaths and think we're not supposed to 98 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: talk about in the podcast. Well, look, it's it's it's 99 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 1: it's like the Israeli secret Arsenal. It's it's an open 100 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: secret and not a closed secret. So okay, you can 101 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 1: solve this problem of of sort of telescope go move um, 102 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:26,799 Speaker 1: either by having just a bunch of satellites going constantly, 103 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: or by having a geosynchronous satellite, which is in which 104 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: is in an orbit where it's like basically over the 105 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: same spot of the Earth at one time. The problem 106 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: is that both of these are like unfathomably expensive. And 107 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that governments don't do that, Like the 108 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 1: US is a multi spy satellites, like lots of countries 109 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: by satellites, but you know, it's really really expensive, and 110 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: that there's there's you know, there's a few other reasons 111 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: why you would use a balloon um, which are you 112 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: know some of the reasons the US uses that use 113 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: them in Afghanistan. One is that you have really limited 114 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: space on a satellite, which means that there's the you know, 115 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: you can only fit certain kinds of equipment onto each satellite. 116 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: There's another issue, which is that okay, um, if you're 117 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: putting spy stuff on a satellite that has to work 118 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 1: in space and it turns out that space sucks, and 119 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: I mean wanting to kill you, I didn't like it. 120 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 1: It's a it's a mark of how like bad people 121 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: are at strategic thinking that they would ever ask why 122 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 1: would you put spy stuff on the balloon, especially like 123 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: it's a little weirder to float it over the US 124 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: if that's what happened. But like if you are the 125 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: US or China or Russia engaging in most of the 126 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: conflicts those countries engage in where they're not dealing with 127 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: state level actors, a balloon provides perfect surveillance, very cheaply, 128 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: it doesn't require refueling, Like, it's an incredibly reasonable platform 129 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: to spy on people with. Yeah, and I think that 130 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: there's another thing which I think has been less talked about, 131 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: which is that, Okay, there's an equipment gap basically between 132 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: when you design a camera for a satellite and when 133 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: the satellite goes up. And this means that whatever you 134 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: whatever kind of cameras and technology you're putting in a 135 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 1: satellite are going to be by definition a few years 136 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: out of date, because that's just how long it takes 137 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 1: a design the equipment and putting it and put it 138 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: into the air. But you know, for a balloon, you 139 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: could you can you could use sulf that's more modern 140 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: than what you would have on a spy satellite. Now, 141 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: you know, and and also like you can you can 142 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: also just put other stuff on the balloon that's not 143 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: a cameras, like you can do sig and stuff you 144 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: can use. So okay, the moral of this story is that, like, 145 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: the spy balloon is not like a completely implausible thing. 146 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: If if you like put a gun to my head 147 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: and said, Mia, what happened here, my guests would be 148 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: it was like the spy balloon went off course, so 149 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: ship and they's lost control of it. Now, yeah, it 150 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: probably was not meant for the continentally United States, because 151 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: that's a weird move. But it's happening. So Hi, this 152 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: is Mia in post. So. But back when we recorded 153 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: this episode in the heavy days of early February, there 154 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: had been but two balloons. There have now been so 155 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: so many more balloons. Oh my god. There the US 156 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: just has balloon mania. We we now know a little 157 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: bit more about the sort of suspected Chinese balloon. It 158 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: does that that balloon seems to be an actual balloon 159 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: at the very least. The U. S Government claims that 160 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: they've recovered an enormous amounts of sort of technical and 161 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: observational equipment from it. They said it was, well, what 162 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: was the exact line, the size of three school buses, 163 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: a bunch of signals intelligence stuff, which is something we 164 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: didn't mention an enormous amount, but yeah, like that, that's 165 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: an Everything you can use the balloon for is intercepting 166 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 1: phone communications, at radio communications, etcetera, etcetera. Okay, so, like 167 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: it seems like they're like they're the first balloon may 168 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: have been an actual balloon. Every subsequent balloon, however, we 169 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 1: have learned more so at least one, and my my 170 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: assumption is this is every single subsequent balloon after the 171 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: first balloon. Um, we have confirmation that so one of 172 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 1: the balloons is shot down over for Canada by n 173 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: F twenty two and this seems to be a Pico 174 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: balloon from the Northern Illinois Bottle Cap Balloon Brigade. Uh, 175 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: these are just like these are these just like tiny 176 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 1: balloons that people send out so they can serve can 177 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 1: navigate the globecause these people are just like balloon hobbyists. 178 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,440 Speaker 1: They just they just like balloons, and you know, it's 179 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: just honestly really sad, like these are just people who 180 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: like they just like putting balloons up and watching them 181 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 1: go around the world and they were met with the 182 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: entire aerial bite of the world's greatest superpower, which spent 183 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: literally more money than I have ever seen in my 184 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: entire life to annihilate literally like about a hundred or 185 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: two hundred dollars worth of essentially foil and some GPS equipment. Uh. 186 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: These people apparently tried to contact the U. S Government 187 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: and tell them what was going on. In the US 188 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: government was like, so, yeah, congratulations to the US government 189 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: which has uh, it has one, it has one an 190 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 1: important geo strategic victory over the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade. Uh. 191 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: This is this has been this has been breaking news 192 00:09:56,000 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: from me uh in in in the in the balloon War. Yeah, 193 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: enjoy the rest of the episode. But you know, I 194 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: wanted to use this to talk about something more interesting, 195 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: which is again like the sort of arc of of U. S. 196 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: China relations and what actually drives it, because I think 197 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: people have a really really not very good understanding of 198 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: how it works and why. Okay, I think it's reasonable 199 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: to ask you, why why are you talking about the 200 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: arc of US China relations. Aren't US shininga relations always bad? 201 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: And the answer is no, In fact, you have shad 202 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: a relations to sometimes actually quite good U. S. China 203 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: relations are driven by these two sort of interlocking forces. 204 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 1: Right on the one hand, you have the internal domestic 205 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: and also kind of global balance of class forces inside 206 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: the country, and that plays a huge role in a 207 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 1: lot of the things that are going to happen in 208 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: the US Hina relations. And the other thing that happens 209 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: is what you, I guess would call geopolitics. And we're 210 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 1: going to kind of start with the geopolitics sign and 211 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: then move back and forth between that and the sort 212 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: of class angle on it. You can get get get 213 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: a kind of understanding of how how this suff actually 214 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: works and how to think about it in ways that 215 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: are just sort of incredibly simplastic and useless. So, all right, 216 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:04,679 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go all the way back to the 217 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: US or whatever, because there are US China relations with 218 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: we we actually invaded China at one point in like 219 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,719 Speaker 1: the eight hundreds for some fucking reason. Uh, then we 220 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: actually we did again the next hundred two. Yeah, But okay, 221 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: So but in terms of dealing with modern China, dealing 222 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 1: with the U. S U and modern US China relations 223 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: is about the US's relationship with the CCP and weirdly 224 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 1: dream world War two it was the relations were actually 225 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 1: really good. Um, you know because obviously China, China is 226 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: the U s IS ally and World War two I 227 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: were there were also allies with China's nationalist party, the KMT. 228 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: But you know what, what what's interesting about this is 229 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: that there's a faction of the U s RM that 230 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: is anti KMT and pro CCP. And they're not pro 231 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: CCP because they're communists. Uh, they're pro CCP because a 232 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 1: they're kind of racist and they really don't like the 233 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: KMT kind of out of racism. And the second thing 234 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: that that's going on is that the k m teed 235 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: as we've talked about elsewhere, it's just like incredibly corrupt 236 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 1: esquad party. And that means that, you know, some of 237 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 1: the people who have to like the people who have 238 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: to work with them on the ground to World War 239 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:10,839 Speaker 1: two or like, these are literally the worst people who 240 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 1: have ever lived. Why on earth are we doing this? 241 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,079 Speaker 1: That means that when when the civil war starts, right like, 242 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: the US takes the nationalist side but like nowhere near 243 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 1: as strongly as they could have, and this creates this 244 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:24,839 Speaker 1: sort of like this myth around like the loss of 245 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: China that becomes this massive thing in the US is 246 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: because this is one of the things that triggers somelth 247 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: McCarthy ism, etceentric cera is like everyone becomes convinced it 248 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: was like oh my God, like Truman, like like they 249 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 1: lost China, Like we could have kept China for the communists, 250 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: but like they lost it, and it's like wow, okay. 251 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 1: But this has another massive impact, which is that it 252 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: creates this thing called the China Lobby. And the China 253 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 1: Lobby is this is this sort of bank of these 254 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: like incredibly psychopathic right wing like anti communist gouls and 255 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 1: some also people who had some also people who were 256 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 1: like had been rich in China and then got owned 257 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: by this ec P, and they start pushing incredibly aggressively 258 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: for like regime change in China for just the US 259 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: and trying to not have a diplomatic relations and this 260 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: this start starts to sort of like tank relations between 261 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: the US and China. And then obviously like so we 262 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: we we fought, we fought a war with China and Korea, 263 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: a thing that I feel like doesn't get talked about 264 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: as much as you would think it would. The Korean 265 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: War is the memory hold war in yeah, and in 266 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: the UK. It's when I was America. But it's still 267 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,959 Speaker 1: war that I mean, the Forgotten War is literally like 268 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: it's it's most common nickname. There's a pretty good book 269 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: by that title too. Yeah, but you know, like like 270 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 1: that war, like there there are there are U s 271 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: and Chinese troops like shooting the ship out of each other, 272 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: like oh yeah, yeah, like across the entire peninsula, like 273 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 1: there are there there are Chinese troops doing bayonet charges 274 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:51,719 Speaker 1: through the road artillery the American lines. My my, the 275 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 1: last before I bought my place, my last landlord was 276 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: a Chinese citizen um living in the US on a 277 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 1: green card, and during a pandemic condre station over some wine, 278 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: we kind of figured out that both of our grandfathers 279 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 1: wound up at the same battles and made very shooting 280 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:13,719 Speaker 1: each other. Yeah, so that's the melting pot, buddy, she 281 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: became a landlord. Mm hmm. Well, I mean, I mean 282 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: that's a dream the you like there there was a 283 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: reasonable argument that they were and back again. A landlord 284 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 1: story is the entire course of the of the sort 285 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: of like Chinese Chinese politics in the twenty century any 286 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 1: respect to the United States. Yeah, well, and also trying 287 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: to writ because lead landlords are back now it sucks. 288 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, land yet not all Chinese people have 289 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: become landlords, but yeah, many a subject to landlord ship. Yeah, 290 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: you know, Okay, So like obviously it's really interesting too 291 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: because when people like when people write about US China relations, 292 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: they normally like the thing that they think they picked 293 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: from this period tends to be like the Twiny Straight crisis, 294 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: and it's like, okay, yeah, there was there was this 295 00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: race crisis, but again, like the U. S And China 296 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 1: were like shooting at each other like before this, like 297 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: why why is this that? Why is this the thing 298 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: that you pick for the downturn of your China relations 299 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 1: like we were at war? Okay, but baffling stuff, right, 300 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: But you know, and relations are not good to like 301 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: the sixties either, like sort of sort of based on 302 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: very very similar sort of lines that you've seen in 303 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: the fifties, Like this is a period where people sort 304 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: of take communism anti communism seriously. Uh, that stops being 305 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: true very quickly. On the other hands, these these sort 306 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: of geopolitics things have real material consequences. Right. You can 307 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: look at this in the American side, where, for example, 308 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: the industrial build up of the Japanese and Korean economies, 309 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: and also the industrial build up like the industrial build 310 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: of California, right, has to do with these sort of 311 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 1: trade linkuages that are that are being set up in 312 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: order for us to run the war in Korean, run 313 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: the war in Vietnam. And China has its own sort 314 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: of version of this, where which which starts getting more 315 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: and more apparent by it starts around the mid sixties. 316 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: They have this thing called the Third Front, which is okay, So, 317 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: having having now been through like I don't know how literally, 318 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: I don't even know how many wars since the start 319 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: of this century, the CCP goes, okay, we need to 320 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 1: shift ourt we need to shift our production away from 321 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: sort of the coast and into the middle of the 322 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: country so that they can't be attacked by the Soviets 323 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: and they can't be attacked by the Americans. And this 324 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 1: this has, this has a really major effect in terms 325 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: of what sort of Chinese industriization looks like. Over the 326 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: course of the mid twentieth centuries. You get, you get 327 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: this industrial belt that's built up and that is going 328 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: to be destroyed later on, and it and it's destroyed 329 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: in part because of of what starts happening in the seventies, 330 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: which is the sort of warm up between the US 331 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: and China based on sort of Nick Nixon and Kissinger's 332 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: attempts to sort of peel the Chinese away from the 333 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: Soviet Union. And you know, like Robert, you've you've talked 334 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 1: about this ambassadors before. Um, but you know, part part 335 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: of part of what's going on here is that China 336 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: like basically gets into a war with the Soviet Union 337 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: at nine. It's not called that, it's setting just called 338 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: the border dispute, but like like there are troops like 339 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: shooting at each other, like all across the border. People 340 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: are beating each other the death with sticks like people 341 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 1: and people are shooting borders at each other. It's it's 342 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 1: it's it's a real war. And it's in a grand 343 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 1: British tradition of course, calling like massive conflicts and emergency 344 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: or the troubles. Yeah, yeah, okay, you know, but this 345 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 1: but this, this, this really sort of this this really 346 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: sort of drives Chinese sort of international like relations to 347 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: the point where they're like Okay, so I know we're 348 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: supposed to be communists, but also like the other communist 349 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 1: power next door might like marching army across the border 350 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 1: at any point. So you know, you get you you 351 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: get the sort of trying to triangle diplomacy of of 352 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: of because when you're trying to sort of bring China 353 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 1: into the at least away from the Soviet spirit and 354 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: then closer into the U. S bear And you know, 355 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 1: this starts to work, right, and you can ask you know, 356 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: there's other there's other things going on here, right, It's 357 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: China's not just playing pure Jeo Paul politics. Um there 358 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 1: there there, there's there's another factor involved, which is that 359 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 1: part of the sort of conditions for US and Chinese 360 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: sort of like as she called by ladder relations or 361 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: whatever sort of geopolitical can't bullshit you want to say, 362 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 1: for like getting along closer is the US starts sending 363 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 1: these technology transfers over to China, like I mean literally 364 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 1: like like like taking like sometimes like taking factories basically 365 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: and like taking them apart and then putting them in 366 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: boxes and shipping them over to China. And you know, okay, 367 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 1: and this is this is this is a huge deal 368 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 1: for the CCP, because like, the Chinese economy in this 369 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 1: period has been really bad. And part of this is just, 370 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: you know, is what happens when you bow. But a 371 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 1: secondary part of this is that China's has has had 372 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: a real basically it's it's try. China's been dealing with 373 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: this sort of economic crisis sense like like literally since 374 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 1: since they came out of World War Two, which is 375 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: that Okay, so, most of China's industrial capacity was completely 376 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: destroying the war. The parchment that weren't were like there's 377 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: this belt in Macharia that had stuff, and then the 378 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: Soviets literally loaded loaded the factories on trains and ship 379 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: them back and ship them back east or back west. 380 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 1: So bye bye bye. By the by the time, by 381 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 1: the time that the CCP takes over, like China has 382 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: less industrial capacity than like Russia did at the beginning 383 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventeen, Jesus, So situations really bleak, right, And 384 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 1: the other the other thing that's bleak about it is that, Okay, so, 385 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 1: in order to build an industrial base, right, We've talked 386 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: about this a bit on the show. In order to 387 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: build industrial base, you need food. But in order to 388 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 1: get like increase your agriculture productivity. You need like mechanical goods, 389 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: but you can't get those mechanical goods unless you can 390 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: increase yourdustrial capacities. You have this bottleneck, and this winds 391 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: up being one of the solutions to the bottleneck is 392 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 1: getting technology chansfers from the US. And you know, the 393 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: sort of product of this is that now all of 394 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: our products and services which we are about to talk 395 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: about which you should buy, are made in China. So yeah, 396 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,239 Speaker 1: go go, go, bug go buy those things that are 397 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: the product of all of this. That's no problem. Don't 398 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: don't question it. Just purchase. Go to Ali Baba and 399 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: just find the Express Express and just wire them seven 400 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 1: hundred dollars. Within I'm going to say two weeks to 401 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 1: seventeen months, you'll get a package of something by it. Honestly, 402 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: if you order something from Ali Express, there's no real 403 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: way to know what you will get. That's the beauty 404 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: of Ali Express. Look you, on the other hand, you 405 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,120 Speaker 1: there there were there was there was a non zero 406 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 1: chance you get a collection of really really sick Chinese 407 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: shirts that just have absolutely random bullshit on him. The 408 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 1: Chinese shirts or like knockoff versions of military grade optics 409 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 1: that work well enough for the Taliban to use the 410 00:20:50,040 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: liberating people the world over. Ali express all right and 411 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 1: we're back. So okay. The Chinese swing into sort of 412 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 1: like aligned with the U. S. They they start doing 413 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: things that are like even a lot of the US's 414 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: right wing allies won't do. Like, for example, China, China 415 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: is one of the first countries to like to diplomatically 416 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 1: recognize Pinochet Chile, and they like send him a ship 417 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: ton of money, that send the loans they send, they 418 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: send him direct cash transfers, and like this is a 419 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 1: point where even like France and like the UK are like, oh, 420 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: we wo that. That's like we're we're not We're not 421 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: We're not gonna have We're not gonna acknowledge his military kidship. 422 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: And China is like yeah, this rules. Hell yeah Petochet. 423 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 1: And you know, they do other stuff that's very sort 424 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: of pro US, right. They invade Vietnam in nineteen seventy 425 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,719 Speaker 1: nine in the war that you know, the only war 426 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: that's more forgotten than the Korean War. That is the 427 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: sign of of these war. Um. That was a really 428 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: good Twitter threats that taught me a lot about China's 429 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 1: non aggression to its other countries last week. Yeah, it's 430 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 1: it's a good time. I I can we we could 431 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: all talk about like the Sino Indian War in the 432 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,880 Speaker 1: middle of this where they just invade India, which is great, 433 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 1: but you know, okay, but like what what what this 434 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: sort of comes up to is in is like you 435 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: you you you get a point where the U s 436 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 1: and China, by by by the end of the seventies 437 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 1: and going into the eighties, are very much on the 438 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 1: same side. Like for example, when when Daniel Payne came 439 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: to visit the US, he he takes he takes like 440 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: an hour out of his schedule to make a secret 441 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 1: visit to the c i A so that he can 442 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 1: set up a joint like us A listening posted in 443 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: China to monitor the Soviets. We talked about this a 444 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: lot in the Kissinger episodes from last year. But folks 445 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 1: should generally be aware that like Chairman maw and Richard 446 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:47,120 Speaker 1: Nixon legitimately got along, like enjoyed one another's company, as 447 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: did Nixon and Chow Chessco like they were they were 448 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 1: all good friends. Yeah, which is something something one ruling class, etcetera. Etcetera. Yeah, 449 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: there's almost a class analysis you could make the yeah, 450 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:01,879 Speaker 1: but you know, okay, we're we're gonna we're gonna do it. 451 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: We're gonna do a slightly different class analysis, which is 452 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 1: that like, okay, so US Shanna relations are very good 453 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: literally like basically until tianaman and then everything gets kind 454 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: of messed up because Tienamaneman. It's a very it has 455 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 1: a set of like very weird and contradictory effects, right, 456 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: you know, we we talked about some of this in 457 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: our Chamman episodes. But it does two things. Right. On 458 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:28,160 Speaker 1: the one hand, like in the US, people are horrified, right, 459 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: you know, the the the entire media classes like watches, 460 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: this happened other outside their windows. There's just like it 461 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: is an incredible uproar. It becomes one of the sort 462 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,360 Speaker 1: of like central like I don't know, like I sort 463 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 1: of like it becomes it becomes I think it's like 464 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 1: incredibly central to just like the memory of what it 465 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: is to be an Asian American is to sort of 466 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: like remember quote unquote Tianneman. But on the other hand, 467 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,480 Speaker 1: you know, so okay, what do you expect from there? 468 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: Is like the U S and China break off diplomatic 469 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: relations and like the Cold War two starts again immediately 470 00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: with the US and China. And it doesn't happen like that. 471 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: It doesn't happen like that because the second thing that 472 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: that that Sandeman does is it finally crushes the Chinese 473 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: working class. And you know, once once, once, the once, 474 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,200 Speaker 1: the old once, the last deal Chinese working class is 475 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: just gone, right, and all that's left is an incredibly 476 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 1: disorganized and incredibly desperate sort of market working class. Suddenly, hey, 477 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 1: look we have a very highly educated, very poor I 478 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,159 Speaker 1: population that you can that you can just you know, 479 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 1: just ship labor too. And this is what this is 480 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,439 Speaker 1: what actually happens in sort of terms of the US 481 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: and Chinese relationship over the nineties, which is that you know, 482 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 1: you you have these this double D industrialization going on. 483 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: You have a D industrization in the US where you know, 484 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 1: the last field rustbelt falls apart, the sort of like 485 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 1: mining industrial boom that had happened that the Reagan just implodes. 486 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 1: And you know, some of this is some of this 487 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: is the centralization. Some of this is these jobs go 488 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 1: to like the suburbs and ship or like in places 489 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 1: like decalb that are just incredibly accursed but real call 490 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,639 Speaker 1: out there. Man. I look, I'm sorry to anyone who 491 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 1: listened to CALB. I wish you best luck fleeing that 492 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: guys at the CALP Tourist Board sponsorship that we've been 493 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: looking for. Yeah, but you know, but but tetal Tanacly 494 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: there's there there. There's another wave of the industrial relation 495 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,120 Speaker 1: happening in China too, which is that that old third 496 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: wave industrial belt that I was talking about. Right, those 497 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,399 Speaker 1: people had worked in like basically the equivalent of like 498 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 1: the Chinese equivalent of sort of like good union jobs. Right, 499 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 1: They're they're they're working. They're working for state for state 500 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 1: on enterprises, so they have housing, they have healthcare, they 501 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 1: have pensions, and all of that is just destroyed. Like 502 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,200 Speaker 1: all these people lose their pensions, they lose everything. There 503 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: are like millions of people who are pushed out of 504 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: their jobs. And you know when when both both of 505 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 1: both of these things happen at the same time, and 506 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: a lot of companies who are watching the sort of 507 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,159 Speaker 1: v station companies like like economies collapse, you're watching the 508 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: vo music Sorry sorry, who are watching the South Korean 509 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: economy collapse or watching the Japanese economy collapse, suddenly start 510 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 1: looking at China, and throughout the course of ninety sort 511 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: of more and more American capital. I mean there's already 512 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: has been capital from East Asia sort of flowing in 513 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: the China, more and more American capital starts flowing in. 514 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 1: And what you get here is you get this battle 515 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 1: between geopolitics and economics, right that the sort of geopolitics 516 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 1: side and the sort of like you know that this 517 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 1: this this society that like the media is on and 518 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 1: the side is that this sort of like the sort 519 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: of intellectual etcetera, etcetera, like anti China classes on is 520 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: you know, they don't they don't want to let China 521 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 1: into the World Trade Organization. But it doesn't work, right, 522 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: those guys just get destroyed China. China get submitted into 523 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 1: the World Trade Organization. Both Bill Clinton and George W. 524 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 1: Bush support China entering the w t O. And they 525 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: do it because they can they can see when I'm 526 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 1: partially a little bit of it is because they for 527 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: some like they they've they've been drinking the kool aid 528 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,719 Speaker 1: and they believe that like if you have capitalism, then 529 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: democracy will follow, which empirical data suggesting yeah, okay, sure, 530 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 1: sure in thee O CON's like whatever, but you know, 531 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 1: but it's also it's also because these these these people 532 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: have financial backers, and their financial backs are telling them like, hey, 533 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: look we can you know, if if if if if 534 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 1: like if all of the sort of weird sanction regime 535 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 1: ship has worked out, and if trying is fully integrated 536 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: into the capital system, like we can make a lot 537 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: of money. And they do that that this is what 538 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 1: the two thousands is, right, like Walmart and like Walgreens 539 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 1: and Ship like directly integrate all of their supply lines 540 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 1: in Chinese supply lines that make deals with Chinese government 541 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,159 Speaker 1: in order to do this, and suddenly by you know, 542 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: by in two thousand one, China's i think, like the 543 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 1: fourth exporter of goods in the world. By two nine, 544 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: they are number one by like an order of mons 545 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 1: on order of magnitude. But they're like very very much 546 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:35,440 Speaker 1: the dominant export like world's dominant export economy. And this 547 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 1: is a problem, right because on the one hand, you know, 548 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: if if like American Chinese relations get there, they're actually 549 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 1: really good at around nine and eleven are actually really good, right, 550 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,719 Speaker 1: Like the the US, like there were there. There were 551 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: guys from sing Jong who like China sends the Guantanamo. 552 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: It's like, here, take these people in the U S 553 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,680 Speaker 1: torch with them for China, like you know, yeah, like 554 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: relations are like relations are good, right, It's like, well, okay, 555 00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: we both have like this like quote Muslim extremist threat 556 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 1: that we're like dealing with, you know, and they try 557 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,959 Speaker 1: to get on the war on terror. But eventually relations 558 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,160 Speaker 1: kind of degrade, like you have the whole Olympics thing. 559 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:11,400 Speaker 1: You have there's like in Tens there's this whole fight 560 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 1: over these islands that the Philippines claim. But you know, 561 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 1: but but the problem with this is it like okay, 562 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 1: so you get, on the one hand, a faction of 563 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: the American right that is really and also and also 564 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,120 Speaker 1: like there's actually American right that's really really hard line 565 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 1: anti Chinese based on sort of racism. There's American liberalism, 566 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: which you know has this thing about like the rule 567 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 1: space international order that like China's violating. They're also racist, 568 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 1: and then there's like progressives like Elizabeth Warred who are 569 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: also racist and um also but you know who's thing 570 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 1: is like, oh, well, workers rights in China are really bad. 571 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: So we need to do like competition with them. It's like, okay, 572 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 1: that's how do you fix it with more capitalism? Yeah? Right, 573 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 1: And but they have a political issue, which is that 574 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: there's another massive section of American capital that has enormous 575 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 1: investments moth sort of financially in terms of where their 576 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 1: factories are, where the logistics are, where the supply lines are. 577 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: That makes them incredibly supportive of sort of close to 578 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: US Hina relations or at the very least makes them 579 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: oppose any kind of sort of like real like anything 580 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: that goes beyond kind of geopolitical posturing. That makes it 581 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 1: harder to do business for them. And this is something 582 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: that I think people have a tendency to forget when 583 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 1: they when they try to think about U. S. China 584 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 1: relationship terms of economics, is that like, Okay, so there 585 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 1: is the U. S has a military industrial complex, but 586 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: that's not the that's not the entire U. S. Economy. 587 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 1: Like there are other people in the US who have 588 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: lots of money. There was an entire financial sector, there 589 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 1: was an entire tech sector, and those people also have 590 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: a ship ton of money. And and then and even 591 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 1: even sort of tech companies, right who who have a 592 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: foot in sort of the American contracting business also often 593 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 1: have a bunch of their you know, a bunch of 594 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: the places where the technology is built is in China. Right, 595 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: So you know, even even people who could theoretically be 596 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,479 Speaker 1: brought into a sort of like like amality industrial complex 597 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 1: political coalition against China, like have reasons not to do it. 598 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 1: And you know, and this this works down the board, 599 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: right if you look at when Trump did the trade war, 600 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 1: he you know, initially there was a lot of popular 601 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 1: support among sort of like American like mid sized businesses 602 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 1: who are like, oh, we can bring industrial capacity back 603 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: to the U S. And then all of them discovered 604 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,840 Speaker 1: that they had to pay, like all discovered that, like 605 00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 1: they had to pay more for their Chinese goods. And 606 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 1: we're like, wait, hold on, we fucked up. We've made 607 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 1: a mistake. He's actually screwed us. And like, you know, 608 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: there's there's another kind of guy, right who there's a 609 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 1: lot of people who you expect to be really antc 610 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 1: CCP who aren't right, And Elon Musk is the best 611 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 1: example of this, Like she's the guy I think they'd 612 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 1: expect Elon Musk to fully support anyone who can fully 613 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 1: stamp on the face of their working class. Because that's true. 614 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 1: He's the kind of person who you would expect, by 615 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,880 Speaker 1: pure racism to be like a really hard land ant 616 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 1: CCP guy, and he's not, because, like he has, there's 617 00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 1: a class consciousness I think which overades even apart Tepe 618 00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: boys racism well and and and like he has, the 619 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 1: Tesla has this like oh god, it's called the Giga factory, 620 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 1: which is a name that makes me want to die. 621 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 1: I mean, but the Giga factories in Shanghai, right, and 622 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,160 Speaker 1: like he ha, he has even even dream when like 623 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 1: the media was like like pretending to care about the 624 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 1: weaker genocide, like he opened a showroom and Shing John 625 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 1: like dream that period. So you know, and there's also 626 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 1: people like Michael Bloomberg who are for very like you know, 627 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 1: if you if you if you if you read Michael 628 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg talking about China, like in the media, he also 629 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 1: talking about like how grave leader Jan Ping is and 630 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:30,960 Speaker 1: it's you know, it's because of people have financial interests 631 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 1: there and you know, and this this means that like 632 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 1: you know, even even the sort of media coverage of 633 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 1: this balloon bullshit, right, and like China has been like 634 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 1: threatening revenge or whatever for the shooting down to the balloon, 635 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,719 Speaker 1: But like this isn't gonna turn into anything, right, It's 636 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 1: it's the same in the same way that like the 637 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 1: last time I watched like straight stuff like didn't turn 638 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 1: into anything, in the same way that like less seventeen 639 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 1: goddamn with these scandals isn't gonna go anywhere. And it's 640 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 1: not gonna go anywhere because there's a there's an enormous 641 00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 1: like faction of American capital who relies on this stuff. 642 00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 1: I think it serves like the manitary industrial complex and 643 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:10,520 Speaker 1: military specifically to have China be like Schrodinger's Next World 644 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 1: War right, like like that they're always a threat. That 645 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 1: like then they're not a threat, you know, like we 646 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 1: can justify so much spending and allocation of resources if 647 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 1: if we can always like waive this stick of potential 648 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,239 Speaker 1: conflict with China. Yeah, And I think there's something that's 649 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 1: kind of like this important to understand is that like 650 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 1: both the China Hawks and the China Doves are enemies 651 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 1: of both the American and Chinese working classes. Like the 652 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 1: China Hawks thing is they want to like you know, 653 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 1: they want to put the Chinese American working classes against 654 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 1: each other, and it's like nationalist fervor in order to 655 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 1: get everyone to ignore the fact that, like both the 656 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,239 Speaker 1: societies are collapsing around them. And by the way, did 657 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: did did we We have not? I don't. I don't 658 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 1: think it's this has really made the news yet. But 659 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 1: Norfolk Southern fucking basically set off a chemical weapon in 660 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 1: Iowa by crashing wanted by crashing a train full of 661 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:03,360 Speaker 1: toxic chemicals, and it's it's literally exploding like right now 662 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 1: as as fucking to recording this episode, it's on fire. Good. 663 00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 1: You know. I love how when you deregulate train industry 664 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 1: so that you can have just like one guy working 665 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: a massive train hauling huge amounts of toxic chemicals, it 666 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 1: works out great, happens. It's called efficiency. Yeah, look, a 667 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 1: train crash like this would have normally taken dozens of 668 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,239 Speaker 1: people to engineers, so we have we have improved our 669 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 1: efficiency markedly well. And also in terms of efficiency, Robert like, 670 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 1: I think how bad it could have been if we 671 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 1: hadn't crossed the rail strikes? Yeah, yeah, there might not 672 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 1: be there might not be a giant poisoned gas quad. 673 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 1: And what is it Ohio. We can't have that. Yeah, 674 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: it's Ohio, it's it's Palestine. They don't say American solidarity 675 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:04,040 Speaker 1: with palestemical Oh, free, free Palestine. That's what I'm saying. 676 00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 1: That's been done already, the first the first, This will 677 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: this will seem like it's in bad taste if a 678 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 1: lot of people wind up dying. But yeah, I also 679 00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: want to mention here that I'm I'm gonna take this 680 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 1: opportunity to mention that China is the second large Israel, 681 00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,800 Speaker 1: second largest trading partner, and they do like yeah, and 682 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,440 Speaker 1: they like they do like security exchanges with each other 683 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:30,439 Speaker 1: where people trade each other's military is it's great, It's great. Um, Yeah, 684 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,440 Speaker 1: But but you know because really, if someone is oppressing 685 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 1: working people, they've done a security exchange with Israel. That 686 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,960 Speaker 1: is like its golden lore of cup beating you in 687 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,960 Speaker 1: the head with a stick. It's never more than two 688 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 1: degrees removed from the idea. Okay, there's one last thing 689 00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,800 Speaker 1: I want to talk about really briefly, which is Okay, 690 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 1: so one of the things you will see people talk 691 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 1: about who are like pundits, were like people on the 692 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 1: news talked about this thing called decoupling. And the thing 693 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,200 Speaker 1: you need to understand immediately is at the moment someone 694 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,760 Speaker 1: says the word decoupling, you can stop listening to everything 695 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 1: they're about to say because they are lying to you, 696 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:20,840 Speaker 1: like it is bullshit. So the what in theory the 697 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 1: coupling is this thing where like supposedly, like the U. 698 00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 1: S And Chinese economy is gonna decouple, right and like 699 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,359 Speaker 1: all of the American firgoms in China are gonna pull out, 700 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 1: and they're gonna pull all their supply jays and they're 701 00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 1: gonna relocate them to somewhere else in the world. And 702 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,759 Speaker 1: the US and Chinese economy suddenly were like not be 703 00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 1: coupled to each other. It's like, no, they're not, Like 704 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 1: this has never happened. It didn't. It didn't Like if 705 00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 1: it was gonna happen, it would have happened to us 706 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 1: in seventeen and like doesn't eighteen when Trump was Trump 707 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:43,600 Speaker 1: was doing the trade war. It didn't happen. Then. The 708 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 1: only time it's ever happened, or the only time American 709 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 1: companies ever sort of pulled out of China like on 710 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,439 Speaker 1: match or tried to was Ironic Quendries two thousand and eleven. 711 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 1: But in two thousand eleven they are trying to pull 712 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,960 Speaker 1: out because of the Wukan riots and this like massive 713 00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,760 Speaker 1: surge of strikes in China, and suddenly all these companies 714 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,360 Speaker 1: were like, oh my god, trying them, might not be 715 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 1: able to keep our might be not be able to 716 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,439 Speaker 1: suppressed the working class hard enough. And then they, yeah, 717 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 1: they got horribly crushed. And one the other thing that 718 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,759 Speaker 1: happened was like company they like companies tried to go 719 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 1: elsewhere and they couldn't do it because no one, like 720 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,839 Speaker 1: no other countries had the combination of like like things 721 00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:21,640 Speaker 1: like a stable electrical grid and like working roads, like 722 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 1: an actually highly educated population. So like they didn't have 723 00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 1: all of these things at once. So they all came 724 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 1: back and you know that that was that was close 725 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 1: as ever came to happening. Everyone talks about this all 726 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:38,319 Speaker 1: the time. They're lying to you ignore them. Yeah, it's 727 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,040 Speaker 1: it's it's not it's not gonna happen. The the U 728 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,680 Speaker 1: S And Chinese economies are inextorably bound to each other 729 00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 1: and they're going to continue to be. Yeah, I mean, 730 00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,839 Speaker 1: we can't run like our economy to a loge extent 731 00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 1: on an economy, but our society runs and like providing 732 00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 1: treats to the working class just enough to prevent them 733 00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: from a battle angle from trying to ractually change anything, 734 00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,480 Speaker 1: and like we can't keep the constant stream of treats 735 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:04,040 Speaker 1: running if if we decouple from China, right, like cheap 736 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,000 Speaker 1: consumer goods. And also like the Chinese economy relies on 737 00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,399 Speaker 1: like as an expert economy, right like they've they've they've 738 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,400 Speaker 1: been trying to turn to an internal consumption economy for 739 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,319 Speaker 1: a decade. It's like not really working because hilariously, it's 740 00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:16,960 Speaker 1: not working because they don't pay people enough to buy 741 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:23,480 Speaker 1: ship and surely no one will ever do that because yeahomy, yeah, 742 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:27,560 Speaker 1: so you know, but yeah it's great. But you know, okay, 743 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 1: I guess like the gist of what I wanted to 744 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,320 Speaker 1: say here is that, like, like us trying to relations 745 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,600 Speaker 1: are driven by forces that are more complicated than man 746 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:39,600 Speaker 1: on TV yell at balloon, and as as powerful as 747 00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,760 Speaker 1: man on TV yell at balloon, seems like in the moment, 748 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,879 Speaker 1: it's not actually the thing underlying what's going on here, 749 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,879 Speaker 1: And you need to be able to look past man 750 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 1: yell at balloon on TV in order to look at 751 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,560 Speaker 1: the sort of the broader, the broader political and social 752 00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,320 Speaker 1: forces that are that are going on here. And I 753 00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,879 Speaker 1: think beyond that, what we need to do is recognized 754 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,800 Speaker 1: that there's a deep emptiness at the center of American 755 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,520 Speaker 1: society that should have, in this case been filled by 756 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,920 Speaker 1: rich people in Cessna's and their friends with high caliber 757 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: precision rifles flying into the sky and a noble cahote 758 00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:19,000 Speaker 1: is uh quest to shoot that fucking balloon down? Just 759 00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:25,080 Speaker 1: having Sancho Panza, I'm so disappointed in this country. Um, 760 00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:28,120 Speaker 1: I expected forty or fifty people to die, but that 761 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,759 Speaker 1: balloon to be taken down. There was a time when 762 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:36,200 Speaker 1: we had a country. Yeah, found our founding fathers would 763 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,960 Speaker 1: have dropped that son of a bit. Yeah. Joe Brandon 764 00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:43,239 Speaker 1: has forced some mode into retirement. Yeah, and China has 765 00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:49,560 Speaker 1: revealed anyway. I hope China sends another balloon. Yeah, what 766 00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 1: else we gonna do? I feel be like a Mickey 767 00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,640 Speaker 1: Mouse fucking Frozen balloon. You know, if they do, like 768 00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,279 Speaker 1: the girl from Frozen, it'll be cool. I'd like to 769 00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 1: see that. They should stop pranking us with character balloons. 770 00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:05,000 Speaker 1: I'd fucking love that. Oh God, but but but but 771 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:10,239 Speaker 1: then the US would start sending like the balloon would 772 00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:14,840 Speaker 1: commissioner Moana balloon to legal for raising fun to happen. 773 00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,000 Speaker 1: We would have like a balloon based Cold War where 774 00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:22,000 Speaker 1: the United States starts shooting over balloons across China and 775 00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,160 Speaker 1: the Russians start floating, and it's just yeah, we got 776 00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:31,000 Speaker 1: a closer balloon Gap becomes the number one world power, 777 00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,759 Speaker 1: green Chili jack boots stamping over the face of humanity 778 00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:45,319 Speaker 1: some minutary capacity. The developers of Balloons Tower Defense get 779 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:50,319 Speaker 1: hauled before a Senate committee for supposedly doing the future God. Yeah, yeah, 780 00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:54,840 Speaker 1: we've got a nationalized MYLA production in order to monopolize it. Alright, 781 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,040 Speaker 1: well the balloon pause. Yeah, I think that's our episode. 782 00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:03,640 Speaker 1: Yeah all until next time, everybody go forth in balloon. 783 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,560 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah. Float a balloon into the airspace of a 784 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 1: sovereign nation just to talk with them a little bit 785 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,560 Speaker 1: by Cameron all express, put it on a balloon, send 786 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,920 Speaker 1: it somewhere. But you can be the c i A. 787 00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:20,640 Speaker 1: You want to see in the skies over a sovereign 788 00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:26,320 Speaker 1: country on the balloon spredated on the side. Why not? 789 00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:31,040 Speaker 1: Why not? What's the harm? What could possibly go wrong? 790 00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,840 Speaker 1: Let's send up now I'm going to listen. On an 791 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,919 Speaker 1: unrelated note, I'm finally going to listen to the song 792 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: Red Balloons for the very first time changes my opinion 793 00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:49,439 Speaker 1: on what people should do with balloons. All right, everyone out. 794 00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,440 Speaker 1: It Could Happen Here as a production of cool Zone Media. 795 00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,360 Speaker 1: For more podcast from cool Zone Media, visit our website 796 00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:01,480 Speaker 1: cool zone meda dot com, or check us out on 797 00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,080 Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you 798 00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,920 Speaker 1: listen to podcasts. You can find sources for It Could 799 00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,879 Speaker 1: Happen Here, updated monthly at cool zone Media dot com 800 00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:11,880 Speaker 1: slash sources. Thanks for listening,