Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2: I'm Pat Fitzmorris here with Bau McBrayer.
Speaker 1: It's Masters Week, the first major of the year is
Speaker 1: arguably the best major of the year, and today we
Speaker 1: will give you a full betting preview of the Masters
Speaker 1: Bow and I will let you know who we're betting.
Speaker 1: We'll make our one and done picks at the end
Speaker 1: of the show. We'll also do a very quick recap
Speaker 1: of the Valero Texas Open. In fact, let's cover the
Speaker 1: Valero right off the bat bow. Not a very interesting tournament.
Speaker 1: Brian Harmon wins the Valero Texas Open, finishing nine under par.
Speaker 1: Harmon raced out to an early lead by shooting sixty
Speaker 1: six in each of his first two rounds. Then the
Speaker 1: win picked up on the weekend and Harmon hung on.
Speaker 1: He shot a sporty seventy two Saturday in the blustery conditions.
Speaker 1: He shot a three over par seventy five on Sunday,
Speaker 1: but still won by three shots over Ryan Girard and
Speaker 1: Maverick McNeely. No one ever seriously threatened Harmon on the weekend.
Speaker 1: Gerard surged into second place on the strength of a
Speaker 1: final day sixty nine. He was one of only three
Speaker 1: players to break seventy in the difficult scoring conditions. On
Speaker 1: Sunday at TPC San Antonio, Maverick McNeely was steady eddie
Speaker 1: rounds of sixty eight, seventy two, seventy one and seventy two.
Speaker 1: MAV is still on the come up, and I think
Speaker 1: it's worth remembering how solidly he blamed the windy conditions
Speaker 1: over the weekend. I'm not sure what else to say
Speaker 1: about the Valero Texas Open Bow. It was kind of
Speaker 1: a tough watch. Honestly. Brian Harmon is, let's generously call
Speaker 1: him deliberate as a player. There's some great songs that
Speaker 1: are shorter than Brian Harmon's pre shot routine.
Speaker 3: There's some tool songs that are shorter than his pre
Speaker 3: shot routine.
Speaker 1: The bigger names in the field, Jordan Speith, Patrick Cantley,
Speaker 1: Corey Connors just sort of lurked around and never made
Speaker 1: a serious run at Harmon got anything profound to say
Speaker 1: about the Valero Texas Open Bow.
Speaker 3: I kind of laid it out last week. It's not
Speaker 3: a remarkable golf course. It's not usually a remarkable tournament.
Speaker 3: It's more of a tune up than anything, unless your
Speaker 3: name is Brian Harmon, who we actually time on a
Speaker 3: sun dial. There are because of global warming, glaciers actually
Speaker 3: move faster than he does now. It was fine for
Speaker 3: me because what I did bet were some placement bets.
Speaker 3: I had three guys in the top five, so that
Speaker 3: was nice. But not getting an outright when there. It's
Speaker 3: not that into the world there because we are all
Speaker 3: kind of anticipating this week the Valero Texas Open. Afterthought
Speaker 3: already out of my memory. Moving on, I don't want
Speaker 3: to talk about Brian Harmon anymore than I have to.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just sort of a dull event.
Speaker 1: And you know, we talked about TPC San Antonio not
Speaker 1: being a very exciting venue, although the wind gave it
Speaker 1: some teeth. I would much rather talk about Augustin National
Speaker 1: And we will turn to the masters in just a moment.
Speaker 3: But first download the free Betting pros app for iOS
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the masters, and we have to start
Speaker 1: with Augusta National, the shangri La of American golf. It's
Speaker 1: in the northeastern part of Georgia, near the border with
Speaker 1: South Carolina. It's a par seventy two measuring seven five
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty five yards. It plays longer than its
Speaker 1: yardage because of all the elevation changes. I've been lucky
Speaker 1: enough to visit Augusta National. I don't think TV adequately
Speaker 1: captures those elevation changes. Maybe you get a sense of
Speaker 1: it when you see players on the tenth t looking
Speaker 1: down that ski slope of a fairway fairway that drops
Speaker 1: more than one hundred feet off the tee. It's the
Speaker 1: uphill climbs that you don't always get a sense of
Speaker 1: when you're watching on television. Because of the rolling terrain,
Speaker 1: Augusta National constantly challenges players with uneven lies, much more
Speaker 1: so than I think at any other tour venue. Congratulations
Speaker 1: on putting your drive in the fairway. Now try to
Speaker 1: hit a high fade with a five iron from a
Speaker 1: hook with the ball a hook lie with the ball
Speaker 1: above your feet like that is a challenge players often
Speaker 1: have to face on the par five to thirteenth hole,
Speaker 1: or they look toward the green, you know all the
Speaker 1: azaleas in bloom behind the back bunkers, and you know
Speaker 1: they've got that tough lie. Or they might have to
Speaker 1: hit an approach shot off a downslope to an elevated green.
Speaker 1: That's the challenge of number nine, a very underrated par
Speaker 1: four it Augusta. Shot shaping very important. There are some
Speaker 1: t shots where you're asked to work the ball from
Speaker 1: right to left, as on the thirteenth hall, where you
Speaker 1: want to avoid that stand of pine trees on the
Speaker 1: right side in order to have a go at the
Speaker 1: green in two. There are a lot of times when
Speaker 1: players will want to work the ball from left to right. Now,
Speaker 1: the fairways are generally pretty wide at Augusta National, and
Speaker 1: the rough range is from light to nonexistent. The big
Speaker 1: hitters do have an advantage here. Distance helps conquer the
Speaker 1: power fives and gives players an edge on some of
Speaker 1: the tougher par fours. Holes number ten and eleven jump
Speaker 1: to mind. But you don't need to be a big
Speaker 1: hitter to win the Masters, especially if conditions are firm
Speaker 1: and fast. We've seen bunters like Mike Weir and Zach
Speaker 1: Johnson wing green jackets. Now I mentioned the fairways are
Speaker 1: generally wide. There are some exceptions, no question, notably the
Speaker 1: t shot on the eighteenth hole that has to be
Speaker 1: one of the most terrifying t shots players will hit
Speaker 1: all year, with its narrow shoot between the trees to
Speaker 1: an uphill fairway. They're well placed bunkers all over the course.
Speaker 1: The only hole that doesn't have any bunkers is the
Speaker 1: par four fourteenth. Greenside bunkers aren't necessarily the worst place
Speaker 1: to be in many instances, but the fairway bunkers that
Speaker 1: Augusta can be pretty punishing. They're deep, and the sand
Speaker 1: at Augusta is soft. Can be pretty difficult to flush
Speaker 1: the ball out of a fairway bunker. And then bo
Speaker 1: there are the greens. Their bent grass and they are
Speaker 1: blazing fast. They're the toughest greens players are going to
Speaker 1: face all year. Augusta Nationals greens are big and undulating,
Speaker 1: with all sorts of complicated slopes. Puts can break severely
Speaker 1: if you don't put your shot in the right spot
Speaker 1: on the green. They're gonna be instances this week where
Speaker 1: players are actually hitting their putts away from the hole
Speaker 1: at more than one hundred and eighty degrees. They're gonna
Speaker 1: be three putts galore. There'll be some four, maybe even
Speaker 1: five putts. Ernie Elle's famously six putted the first hole
Speaker 1: from only three feet away in twenty sixteen. The greens
Speaker 1: just they make shot placements so critical. Stay below the
Speaker 1: hole and you'll be in great shape. Miss your target
Speaker 1: and end up above the hole, good luck to you.
Speaker 1: But the undulations of the Augusta greens can actually be
Speaker 1: friendly to players. Some greens will funnel well play shots
Speaker 1: toward the hole, setting up short birdie puts. You'll see
Speaker 1: that on the tiered eighteenth green, for instance. Players use
Speaker 1: the backboard for a little spin down to the hole
Speaker 1: when the pin is in the front of the green.
Speaker 1: We'll see it so on the sixteenth hole with that
Speaker 1: tricky left side pin placement on the lowest part of
Speaker 1: the green, and memorably we saw it on the par
Speaker 1: five second hole in twenty twelve, when Louis Ustasen landed
Speaker 1: his second shot on the front of the green and
Speaker 1: let it chase some eighty feet to the back right
Speaker 1: part of the green, it dropped in for a double eagle.
Speaker 1: That was the year Usti lost a playoff to Bubba Watson.
Speaker 1: It's very helpful to have experience with these greens. It's
Speaker 1: a big reason why it's rare for first timers to
Speaker 1: contend a at Gosten, why we see some of the
Speaker 1: same names on the leaderboard year after year. Ludwig Oberg
Speaker 1: was kind of an exception last year, finishing second in
Speaker 1: his Maden voyage at the Masters. You have to score
Speaker 1: well on the par fives here, no question about it.
Speaker 1: They are all very reachable in two. The thirteenth of
Speaker 1: the fifteenth holes are especially famous. I've talked about the thirteenth,
Speaker 1: which is five hundred and forty five yards and technically
Speaker 1: the easiest hole in the course as far as scoring average.
Speaker 2: Then there's the fifteenth.
Speaker 1: It's five hundred and fifty yards with a generous fair way,
Speaker 1: but you have to carry a pond with your approach
Speaker 1: shot miss long and then you have a difficult chip
Speaker 1: back with the green funneling balls toward that front pond.
Speaker 1: The front nine par fives number two and number eight
Speaker 1: are underrated gems. Number two presents a downhill approach shot
Speaker 1: to that crazy triangular green. Number eight gives you a
Speaker 1: blind uphill approach to a green guarded by mounds on
Speaker 1: either side, and negotiating the part threes is pretty critical too.
Speaker 1: The back nine has the famous twelfth hole, maybe the
Speaker 1: best and most difficult short part three in the world.
Speaker 1: It's only one hundred and fifty five yards to a
Speaker 1: long but extremely shallow green. You have to clear Rays Creek,
Speaker 1: and there's a steep embankment on the far side of
Speaker 1: the creek that will bat balls back into the water.
Speaker 1: The wind is extremely hard to judge on the twelfth hole,
Speaker 1: and Jordan Speith came to the twelfth with a five
Speaker 1: shot lead in the final round in twenty sixteen. His
Speaker 1: t shot hit the bank on the far side of
Speaker 1: Rays Creek and bounce back into the water. He hit
Speaker 1: his third shot fat from the drop area into the
Speaker 1: creek again. He sailed his fifth shot into the back bunker.
Speaker 1: Speeth took a quadruple bogie seven on the twelfth he
Speaker 1: lost to Danny Willett by three shots after leading by
Speaker 1: five with seven holes to play. Then there's the fame
Speaker 1: sixteenth hole with the pond in front of the hole
Speaker 1: into the left. It's this is the hole where Tiger
Speaker 1: Woods had the famous chip in during his duel with
Speaker 1: Chris DeMarco in two thousand and five. And the power
Speaker 1: threes on the front nine both play downhill. Number four
Speaker 1: is a two hundred and forty yard monster. You need
Speaker 1: to hit a great long iron to get the ball
Speaker 1: close to the hole. Number six is one hundred and
Speaker 1: eighty yards to one of the trickier greens on the course.
Speaker 1: And let's not leave out the par fours. The tenth
Speaker 1: and the eleventh holes are both long downhill dog legs.
Speaker 1: Number ten it's the hardest hole on the course by
Speaker 1: scoring average. Number eleven second hardest hole on the course.
Speaker 1: Number fourteen and number seventeen don't appear to be that
Speaker 1: complicated until you get to the greens. The fourteenth and
Speaker 1: seventeenth greens are both labby Corinthian. They might be the
Speaker 1: two toughest greens on the course. We talked about the
Speaker 1: eighteenth hole with its narrow, little shoot off the tee
Speaker 1: and its uphill approach to a tiered green front. Nine
Speaker 1: power fours are excellent too. I love number three. It's
Speaker 1: only three hundred and sixty yards, but it's another hole
Speaker 1: with a demanding green. Putting your wedge in the right
Speaker 1: spot is critical. Also a big fan of the four
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety five yard fifth hole with its big,
Speaker 1: bumpy green bottom line. There is not a single pushover
Speaker 1: hole at Augusta National. Every hole can yield a bow
Speaker 1: gear worse if you play it sloppily, but not any
Speaker 1: hole at Augusta is unconquerable. Like every hole here will
Speaker 1: yield a birdie or even an eagle if you play
Speaker 1: it artfully. The weather forecast for Augusta, Georgia this week
Speaker 1: pretty ideal, temperatures ranging from the low sixties to the
Speaker 1: mid seventies, no rain in the forecast, wins of five
Speaker 1: to ten miles an hour, maybe a little breezier than
Speaker 1: that on Friday. Not enough wind to really punish the players,
Speaker 1: but enough to challenged them now. Scotti Scheffler is the
Speaker 1: defending champion. He finished eleven under par last year, four
Speaker 1: shots better than Ludwig Oberg. It was Scotty's second win
Speaker 1: at the Masters. He also won in twenty two twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, finishing minus ten and beating Rory McElroy by
Speaker 1: three shots. John Ram won in twenty twenty three. He
Speaker 1: was twelve under, four shots clear of Phil Mickelson and
Speaker 1: Brooks Koepka. Haadeki Matsuiama won in twenty twenty one. He
Speaker 1: finished minus ten to beat will Zalatoris by one stroke,
Speaker 1: and Dustin Johnson won the twenty twenty Masters, which was
Speaker 1: played in the fall that year due to COVID. DJ
Speaker 1: went twenty under par to win by five shots. I
Speaker 1: love this course, bo sprinkle my ashes here when I'm gone.
Speaker 1: Your thoughts on augustin Nashal.
Speaker 3: It's just it's perfect. It's perfect in every way. There's
Speaker 3: not a blade of grass out of place. The hills
Speaker 3: are unruly, the lies are uneven, the golf is somehow
Speaker 3: still incredibly fair. Good shots are rewarded with opportunities, and
Speaker 3: bad shots are swatted away with draconian consequences. That's what
Speaker 3: golf should be about. This is the measuring stick. This
Speaker 3: is the barometer for all championship golfers. If you're in
Speaker 3: this field, you want to be able to hold yourself
Speaker 3: up to that standard of how did I do at
Speaker 3: the Masters When the field is the strongest, it's the
Speaker 3: most concentrated at the top. Every top golfer is here,
Speaker 3: and every top golfer who's conquered Augusta in the past
Speaker 3: that's able to is here. That's what is The majesty
Speaker 3: of this tournament is unmistakable. It's unparalleled. You cannot beat
Speaker 3: to the Masters in any way, shape or form. And
Speaker 3: as for Gary Player who says it's not even in
Speaker 3: his top fifty golf courses, hogwash. This is the best
Speaker 3: golf course in the world. Maybe not the most famous,
Speaker 3: it's up there in fame too, but it's the best
Speaker 3: golf course in the world. And it's also the most exclusive.
Speaker 3: It has the mystique, it has the allure, and it's like,
Speaker 3: how often does a golfer want to venture into the
Speaker 3: woods for an experience like that? Well, here you go,
Speaker 3: tucked back into the woods is the crown jewel of
Speaker 3: championship golf. And it's just it's just the best. It's perfect.
Speaker 1: Augusta National not open to the public, but I would
Speaker 1: pay far more money than I could reasonably afford to
Speaker 1: play around at Augusta National.
Speaker 3: I would sell my house right now to play it
Speaker 3: at one time.
Speaker 1: It is that magical a place. Care to guess at
Speaker 1: a winning score this week ball.
Speaker 3: The weather is going to be mild and gettable, so
Speaker 3: it's probably going to be between fifteen and eighteen under part.
Speaker 3: A little bit more favorable scoring conditions this year, not
Speaker 3: quite as favorable as it was when it was softened
Speaker 3: in November of twenty twenty during the pandemic. But I
Speaker 3: do think that the field strength, how well the golfers
Speaker 3: are playing coming in, and with the way we've seen
Speaker 3: scoring trending is going low. So fifteen to eighteen under
Speaker 3: part most likely.
Speaker 1: I'm going to go a little a little higher than
Speaker 1: you for winning score BO as far as well, not
Speaker 1: quite as high relative to under par. I'm gonna say
Speaker 1: minus twelve, minus thirteen. I think firm, Yeah, firm and
Speaker 1: fast conditions. I think could could trick it up a little. Granted,
Speaker 1: there's not going to be a lot of wind and
Speaker 1: the greens aren't going to be soft, but I without
Speaker 1: the soft greens.
Speaker 3: Oh it's brutally difficult. And so yeah, if you hear
Speaker 3: anybody say that they could break eighty at Augusta their life. Yeah,
Speaker 3: or they're delusional, or they're both. It's it's just who
Speaker 3: are they lying to?
Speaker 4: You?
Speaker 3: Are themselves? This course is absolutely disgusting for an amateur
Speaker 3: to even think about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, with a masters setup, if you are a scratch golfer,
Speaker 1: I don't think you're breaking eighty quite honestly, No.
Speaker 3: Chance, No chance, maybe ninety.
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Speaker 1: talked about wanting to get Patrick Reid into my Draft
Speaker 1: Kings DFS lineups last week. Bo I do indeed think
Speaker 1: he's value priced at seventy three hundred, another bargain.
Speaker 2: Price to live to her player. How about Sergio Garcia.
Speaker 1: He's only seventy one hundred, He's been playing well, and
Speaker 1: he loves this course. Sergio is a green jacket in
Speaker 1: his closet. I'm torn between Scotti, Scheffler and Rory McElroy
Speaker 1: as my anchor player, leaning a little toward the slightly
Speaker 1: less expensive Rory. Does anyone stand out to you as
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Speaker 3: I'll give you a couple at the top as my anchor.
Speaker 3: I'm going to sue the top two guys completely because
Speaker 3: the number three golfer in the world behind Scotty and
Speaker 3: Rory is Xander Schoffley, and he's going for sub ten
Speaker 3: k on DraftKings at ninety seven hundred. He's got four
Speaker 3: top tens in his last five years at the Masters.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm going to take the easy value with
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Speaker 3: about a guy who's averaging eighty DraftKings points a week
Speaker 3: this season, Sepstrack at seventy six hundred. That's a great
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Speaker 3: to He seems to do well when the conditions get tough.
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Speaker 1: DraftKings Now for the master's odds. These odds are courtesy
Speaker 1: of the DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday morning. Please know
Speaker 1: that some player odds will have changed slightly by the
Speaker 1: time you consume this show. Scotty Scheffler is the favorite
Speaker 1: at plus four hundred. Rory McElroy is plus six fifty
Speaker 1: short odds for Rory to win his first Green Jacket
Speaker 1: this week. Big John Rahm is plus thirteen hundred. Bryce
Speaker 1: and d Chambeau, Colin Morikawa and Xander Schoffley are plus
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred. Ludwig Oberg is plus two thousand, Justin Thomas
Speaker 1: plus twenty five hundred, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama are
Speaker 1: plus three thousand, Jordan Spieth is plus thirty five hundred,
Speaker 1: and Victor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantley our plus
Speaker 1: four thousand. Let's talk about this GROUPO, how do you
Speaker 1: feel about Scotty at plus four hundred and Rory at
Speaker 1: plus six fifty and do any of the other players
Speaker 1: stand out to you?
Speaker 3: This is a horse for course type of course. And
Speaker 3: that being said, I see two green jackets in Scotti
Speaker 3: Scheffler's closet and zero in Rory McElroy's. Twenty eleven was
Speaker 3: the year they had the big lead in completly fell
Speaker 3: apart on Sunday. Ever since then, Rory McElroy has been
Speaker 3: cursed at Augusta National. And yes he is the only
Speaker 3: multiple time winner on tour this season, I still think
Speaker 3: he's cursed. I still think that these odds are an
Speaker 3: insult to bookmaking because it's just a bunch of suckers
Speaker 3: like us out there wanting to ride that Rory wave.
Speaker 3: And yes it was very tempting, but to get the
Speaker 3: number three ranked golfer in the world at plus eighteen
Speaker 3: hundred is ludicrous. Xanderschoffley is a better track record at
Speaker 3: Augusta National than Rory does. He's playing decently well for
Speaker 3: coming off an injury earlier this season, and I think
Speaker 3: as far as it goes, he's a better horse for
Speaker 3: this course than is Rory McElroy. I'm probably gonna withhold
Speaker 3: my Scottie Scheffler betting unless I get a double digit
Speaker 3: odds type of live bet setup where he's still within
Speaker 3: striking distance with enough holes to play to catch up
Speaker 3: and make that bet worth it. But I'm starting my
Speaker 3: outright card with Xanderschoff, and I'm going to run right
Speaker 3: into Ludwig Oberg at plus two thousand. Shaffley is the
Speaker 3: longest odds I could ever predict, because I handicapped him
Speaker 3: at plus eight hundred. So getting an extra ten to
Speaker 3: one odds for a guy that's number three in the
Speaker 3: world and a multiple major winner last year, defending PGA champion,
Speaker 3: defending champion Golf of the Year last year, and we're
Speaker 3: going to talk about this guy being rolled over into
Speaker 3: plus eighteen hundred territory. It's ludicrous. And on the same token,
Speaker 3: I'm betting Ludwig Oberg at the absolute shortest odds I
Speaker 3: would bet him at at plus two thousand. That's just
Speaker 3: because his upside is unmistakable. This guy has more of
Speaker 3: a killer instinct than you they would ever imagine. He's
Speaker 3: got a lot more brooks kept cut under the hood
Speaker 3: than he does. Somebody meek and mild like his outside
Speaker 3: persona very cheerful, very very calm and collected, but that
Speaker 3: dude is an ice cold killer under the surface. Like
Speaker 3: brooks Kepi. He's a big game hunter and he's got
Speaker 3: the upside that could run away with the Masters tournament
Speaker 3: like he almost did last year. He almost ran down
Speaker 3: Scotty Shuffler last year until he dunked one on eleven.
Speaker 3: And that is why I think that he could make
Speaker 3: a Tiger esque run at a Masters in his career
Speaker 3: where he just dominates the field by double digit strokes.
Speaker 3: Lud Vic Oberg has that in his range of outcomes.
Speaker 3: I don't think anybody outside of Scotty has that.
Speaker 1: So few players making their debut at Augusta seriously contend.
Speaker 1: You have to pay attention when a player making his
Speaker 1: debut finishes second. Solow second, and he was so calm
Speaker 1: last year, bo Like, he looked like he was having
Speaker 1: fun out there. Oberg has missed the cut in his
Speaker 1: last two events, though, like I can't think of the
Speaker 1: last time a player missed a cut in his last
Speaker 1: event before the Masters and won the green jacket. That's
Speaker 1: the only thing that scares me. I'm with you on
Speaker 1: everything else with him. Xander top ten at the Masters
Speaker 1: three of the last four years, hasn't quite gotten into
Speaker 1: the groove yet. In twenty twenty five, he had the
Speaker 1: slow start, but you know, would it really be to
Speaker 1: see him turn it on this week?
Speaker 2: And of course he plays well.
Speaker 1: And yeah, Scotty obviously has the strong recent track record
Speaker 1: of the Masters. But Scotty hasn't won in six starts
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 2: Bo.
Speaker 1: He's a runner up in Houston a few weeks ago,
Speaker 1: but he's only been top ten and three of his
Speaker 1: six events.
Speaker 3: Oh how tragic.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's.
Speaker 3: You know, like obviously the comedy of airs with Scotty Scheffler.
Speaker 3: We can't expect him to win out of six tournaments.
Speaker 3: What has he turned into?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Grading on a curve, I guess we're giving Scotty a
Speaker 1: C minus this season, but for anyone else that would
Speaker 1: be an A minus. I'm going to follow the patented
Speaker 1: bow mcbarar strategy for betting Scotty Scheffler. I'm not playing
Speaker 1: him at plus four hundred against such a loaded field,
Speaker 1: a field that now includes all the studs from the
Speaker 1: Live Tour. But I'm looking for opportunities where Scotty's odds drifts.
Speaker 1: Maybe double Bogie's one of his first couple of holes,
Speaker 1: or maybe another player jumps out to a multi shot
Speaker 1: lead and all of a sudden, Scotty goes to plus
Speaker 1: eight hundred. That's where I might look to pounce on
Speaker 1: a Scotty outright. I'm with young Rory bo like very
Speaker 1: sharp this year, wins at Pebble Beach in the Players Championship,
Speaker 1: and man, you'd think he'd have at least one green
Speaker 1: jacket by now. But ever since that faithful Sunday and
Speaker 1: twenty eleven when a twenty one year old Rory McElroy
Speaker 1: took a five shot lead into the final round and
Speaker 1: shot eighty that day, it has been one tail of
Speaker 1: ball after another for Rory at augusta runner up in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, but he's missed the cut in two
Speaker 1: of his last four Masters twenty second last year. He
Speaker 1: could absolutely win this week, and I'd love to see it.
Speaker 1: Not eager to jump on him at plus six fifty.
Speaker 1: What about Ram at plus thirteen hundred bow He's won
Speaker 1: the Masters, hasn't won on the Live Tour yet this year,
Speaker 1: but he's played pretty well a lot of top tens.
Speaker 1: It's got that great combination of power off the tee
Speaker 1: and touch around the greens. Do you think there's any
Speaker 1: value at plus thirteen hundred.
Speaker 3: He's a tricky one because as well as he's played,
Speaker 3: I haven't seen the peak form that we saw when
Speaker 3: he won the Masters a couple of years ago. So
Speaker 3: probably not gonna bet John Ram here unless he slips
Speaker 3: to more of a fifteen to sixteen number. It's still
Speaker 3: all of these guys up here have very high likelihood
Speaker 3: of winning or chasing that top of the leaderboard this week.
Speaker 3: Wouldn't surprise me at Algy at Ram at double digits
Speaker 3: and be happy about it. I'm just not as excited
Speaker 3: as some people are about him, because again, we haven't
Speaker 3: seen him really have that killer instinct that he showed
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago at Augusta to win. I
Speaker 3: just don't. I don't see the win here. I don't
Speaker 3: see the hunger it's required to win here this year.
Speaker 3: This field is loaded, and I just want to see
Speaker 3: that fire come back to John Ram. He's a Spaniard
Speaker 3: for Gord's sake. We gotta see that fire comeback so
Speaker 3: we can be eating pie at the Champions dinner next year.
Speaker 2: How about Colin Morikawa?
Speaker 1: Say odds as Xander Schaffley plus eighteen hundred not always
Speaker 1: great with the putter, but he is an elite ball striker.
Speaker 1: He's finished top ten at Augusta in each of the
Speaker 1: last three years, including a third last year, and he's
Speaker 1: been playing well this year. What do you think about
Speaker 1: the value on Morikawa.
Speaker 3: That's another guy that's been bet up a lot this
Speaker 3: week because of his ball striking prowess, not just putting,
Speaker 3: but clutch. Does he have the clutch gene? Does he
Speaker 3: have the killer instinct that we've seen from other winners
Speaker 3: calin more Kawa hasn't won since he won the US
Speaker 3: Open a few years ago. He hasn't won in two years.
Speaker 3: And this is a world class player, top ten in
Speaker 3: the world, one of the best ball strikers, iron players
Speaker 3: in the world. You have to be able to putt,
Speaker 3: you have to be able to make birdie putts, you
Speaker 3: have to be able to salvage two putts on Augusta
Speaker 3: National and that's what's held calling back and the tale
Speaker 3: of two guys who both dunked their approach shots on
Speaker 3: number eleven last year down the stretch trying to chase
Speaker 3: down Scotti Scheffler lud Vig Oeberg dunked it on eleven
Speaker 3: and smiled a rise smile to his caddy saying, well,
Speaker 3: I guess that's it, folks, and he kept playing. Calin
Speaker 3: more Kawa done his approach on eleven. It looked like
Speaker 3: he shut down completely, absolutely devastated. You could see his
Speaker 3: entire like focus cracked. It crumbled, like he crumbled like
Speaker 3: a cracker, like a like a chocolate chip cookie. It's
Speaker 3: been left out in the sun. He folded. That was
Speaker 3: not what I want to see in a championship like
Speaker 3: this one. He might not ever have the killer instinct
Speaker 3: required to win a green jacket, and for him to
Speaker 3: get bet up as inflated as he is, I just
Speaker 3: don't see it. As much as I love watching him play,
Speaker 3: I just don't see it. And I will not be
Speaker 3: placing any bets on Colin Morikawa this year. We're ever
Speaker 3: at the Masters.
Speaker 1: There points Bryson d Chambeau got to talk about him.
Speaker 1: He finished sixth here last year. But Augusta has not
Speaker 1: been especially kind to Bryson. He famously said a few
Speaker 1: years ago that he was going to treat Augusta as
Speaker 1: a par sixty eight because of the short par fives.
Speaker 1: And yes, Bryson is a guy who could go ten
Speaker 1: under par on the par fives this week, But does
Speaker 1: he have the needed touch around the greens. I think
Speaker 1: that's the big question, And really, will his distance off
Speaker 1: the t be a big advantage in a week when
Speaker 1: the course is going to be pretty dry and firm,
Speaker 1: Like I'd be much more intrigued if Bryson were playing
Speaker 1: kind of a saggy Augusta. I'd also be more intrigued
Speaker 1: if you weren't a YouTube superstar who's fame is probably
Speaker 1: artificially lowering his odds. So are you with me that
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of value on Bryson at plus
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred.
Speaker 3: Well, Bryson and Ludvigger similar in that they both have
Speaker 3: that upside of going really really low on a tough
Speaker 3: golf course. We saw what Bryson can do on a
Speaker 3: tough track that challenges his short game at the US
Speaker 3: Open last year. Pinehurst was the absolute test for Bryson
Speaker 3: to Shambo, and Pinehurst and Augusta not that different. Really.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of similarities in how they're laid out,
Speaker 3: what kind of misses you can have, what kind of
Speaker 3: misses you can't have. And Bryson impressed me, so I'm
Speaker 3: more likely to bet Bryson than I am Colin or Rory.
Speaker 3: Because of that, will I still feature him on my card?
Speaker 3: Probably not, because, again, the chipping and putting is such
Speaker 3: a stressor on all these players that I'm going to
Speaker 3: be leaning towards the guys who are not just adequate
Speaker 3: in the short game but elite.
Speaker 1: Now, you're the Justin Thomas guy, bo, how do you
Speaker 1: feel about JT? He is twenty five to one. He's
Speaker 1: had a top five and a pair of top tens
Speaker 1: here in recent years, but he also missed the cut
Speaker 1: here in each of the last two years.
Speaker 3: Yeah, another guy who's struggling with the putter on occasion,
Speaker 3: but his big bugaboo has been off the tee, and
Speaker 3: as tough as it is to position yourself off the
Speaker 3: tee here, I probably won't bet him at twenty five
Speaker 3: to one. I was hoping to see him at thirty
Speaker 3: or thirty five so I could make a bet that
Speaker 3: made me want to watch the Masters even more that
Speaker 3: just didn't pan out. Twenty five to one is fair.
Speaker 3: It's just not that good of a line for Justin Thomas,
Speaker 3: especially since he has missed the weekend here twice in
Speaker 3: a row. This is a different Justin Thomas. It's good.
Speaker 3: It's just a different style of play than we've seen
Speaker 3: in the last couple of years. So I hope he
Speaker 3: does well. I'm just not gonna be betting on it.
Speaker 1: Let's look at the odds for some of the mid
Speaker 1: range options. Tyrrel Hatton and Shane Lowry are plus forty
Speaker 1: five hundred. Georgia native Russell Henley is plus fifty five hundred,
Speaker 1: Cameron Smith, Minwoo Lee and Robert McIntyre are plus six thousand.
Speaker 1: Aksha Beatilla, will Zlatoris and Sergio Garcia are plus sixty
Speaker 1: five hundred. Corey Conners is plus seven thousand, Tory Finow,
Speaker 1: Jason Day, and Sepstraca are plus seventy five hundred, and
Speaker 1: Wyndham Clark is plus eight thousand. Let's talk about these guys,
Speaker 1: but is there any betting value in this range?
Speaker 3: There is with a couple guys. I will caution a
Speaker 3: lot of people on guys who have big holes in
Speaker 3: their game. This course is going to test your entire bag.
Speaker 3: It's gonna test every amount of creativity you have in
Speaker 3: your brain to make that bag work for you on
Speaker 3: this golf course, and it's gonna do that for four
Speaker 3: ruling days, we're walking up and down gigantic hills, and
Speaker 3: you're going to be thinking your whole way around. So
Speaker 3: in this mid range, I'm looking for the thinkers. I'm
Speaker 3: looking for the guys who aren't going to crack under
Speaker 3: the pressure and aren't going to be ruined by one
Speaker 3: bad hole. And so with that being said, I'm going
Speaker 3: to actually look to see Hideki Matziyama, a prior champion,
Speaker 3: kind of slip into that mid tier. If he slips
Speaker 3: to thirty five or forty to one, we're looking at
Speaker 3: a huge, huge investment and ladder bet for me because
Speaker 3: a is a prior champion. One of the best master's
Speaker 3: moments I've ever seen was him and his caddie turning
Speaker 3: towards the eighteenth fair we had bowing to the setting
Speaker 3: Georgian sun. This guy is playing outstanding golf right now,
Speaker 3: and there's no telling how much more of a memory
Speaker 3: he's going to create at this golf course when he's
Speaker 3: a what twenty six years old. Hideki Matziama is still
Speaker 3: in the prime of his career. He's playing great golf
Speaker 3: and he's already got that good vibes going at Augusta National.
Speaker 3: That's a guy that I'm willing to throw a lot
Speaker 3: of money on, especially if he slips past thirty to
Speaker 3: one to thirty five or forty. And then the other
Speaker 3: guy is who doesn't like Cameron Smith at Augusta. This
Speaker 3: guy just a He's a top ten machine at Augusta.
Speaker 3: It's because he plays a timeless style of golf where
Speaker 3: he's not that great off the tee. He's a short hitter.
Speaker 3: He plays a more positional style. There is not a
Speaker 3: more lethal golfer in the world with a wedge and
Speaker 3: putter in his hand. There's just not. He's number one
Speaker 3: in every short game metric, He's number one in every
Speaker 3: putting metric. He's number one in every short game thing
Speaker 3: you can even measure. And the proof is in the pudding.
Speaker 3: This guy is fun to watch. He scores on tough
Speaker 3: golf courses. It's because he does not really he does
Speaker 3: not relent when a wedge or putter is in his hand.
Speaker 3: And I think that he breaks through this year in
Speaker 3: a big way. At sixty to one, that's an insult.
Speaker 3: He's plus four hundred just to get a top ten,
Speaker 3: which he's done every year, but one that he's been
Speaker 3: at Augusta.
Speaker 1: Oh, the man is a machine van go with a
Speaker 1: wedge in his hands. Boy, the short game always plays
Speaker 1: up at Augusta for Cam Smith, and he's finished top
Speaker 1: ten in four of the last six Masters. But Cam's
Speaker 1: foreman lived tour this year not not real good, only
Speaker 1: one top ten finish in five starts Bots. The top
Speaker 1: ten finish just came this past week in Miami. It
Speaker 1: was only a nine.
Speaker 3: At a very tough golf course that challenges the shirt.
Speaker 2: Yeah, winning score was what minus six? So, yeah, Darrell
Speaker 2: is tough.
Speaker 3: I remember Durrell being on the PGA Tour and that's
Speaker 3: a really good barometer and warm up for Augusta's actually
Speaker 3: at the Live Miami tournament there at Darrell.
Speaker 1: Agreed, good tune up. Russell Henley bow He's from Macon, Georgia.
Speaker 1: He's a Georgia bulldog. I realized Henley is sort of
Speaker 1: a Bermuda green specialist and Augusta has bent grass greens.
Speaker 1: But Henley finished fourth here two years ago and he's
Speaker 1: been playing great this year. He's sixth in strokes gained
Speaker 1: total twenty two in strokes gained on approach, nineteenth in
Speaker 1: strokes gained putting. I guess what maybe scares me a
Speaker 1: little bit is that he's barely inside the top one
Speaker 1: hundred and strokes gained scrambling. But at fifty five to one,
Speaker 1: I'm definitely interested. I'm also kind of interested in Robert McIntyre,
Speaker 1: like left handers might have an advantage here with the
Speaker 1: way they shape the ball, especially the ones who play
Speaker 1: the fade and Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir all lefties,
Speaker 1: all pass champions multiple times for Phil and Bubba. McIntyre
Speaker 1: has finished twelfth and twenty third and two previous Masters starts,
Speaker 1: and his recent form has been pretty solid eleventh, ninth,
Speaker 1: and ninth in his last three PGA Tour events. Will
Speaker 1: v Xalatorus excuse me, looks like really good value great
Speaker 1: ball striker hasn't had a top ten this year, but
Speaker 1: he's had three straight top tens at the Masters. And
Speaker 1: speaking of great ball strikers, bo, I'm kind of conflicted
Speaker 1: on Corey Connors. He's pretty dialed in three top tens
Speaker 1: in his last four events. He was just eighteenth at
Speaker 1: the Valero Counters was making a big move on Saturday
Speaker 1: at the Valero. Then he three part of the par
Speaker 1: five seventeenth for a bogie, And that is the concern
Speaker 1: for Corey Connors at Augusta. He's not a good putter
Speaker 1: by PJ Tour standards, short game. Can he pot well
Speaker 1: enough to win at Augusta? But can he be a
Speaker 1: VJ Singh a guy who's a great ball striker and
Speaker 1: a mediocre putter, but his putter gets hot for four days.
Speaker 1: That's what happened to VJ when he won the Masters.
Speaker 3: So VJ is a mediocre petter. Corey Connors is an
Speaker 3: atrocious putting point and he's an atrocious chipper too, So yeah,
Speaker 3: Corey Connor has better bet on like the most insane
Speaker 3: heater of approach proximity on the correct side of the hole,
Speaker 3: because if this guy gets short sighted or above the hole,
Speaker 3: he's absolutely toast.
Speaker 2: Very true.
Speaker 1: He is a surgeon with the iron, so maybe you
Speaker 1: can do that, but man to do that over seventy
Speaker 1: two holes at Agasta is a pretty tall order. Granted,
Speaker 1: what about long shots? Bo We don't see many long
Speaker 1: shot winners at the Masters, but we do occasionally get
Speaker 1: the on Hell Cabrera from two thousand and nine who
Speaker 1: breaks through for a win at longer odds. So is
Speaker 1: there anyone you like north of eighty.
Speaker 3: To one as two guys I circled, Like you said,
Speaker 3: the long shot bets of the Masters don't usually pan
Speaker 3: out because these these guys are all so good, and
Speaker 3: you get a couple stragglers that barely qualify in the
Speaker 3: last weeks before the tournament. I'm gonna go for long
Speaker 3: shots with experience. I'm gonna go with Keegan Bradley. Oh, captain,
Speaker 3: my captain. He's gonna be He's gonna be leading us
Speaker 3: the Red, White and Blue at Bethpage Black in September.
Speaker 3: This guy's playing great golf and he's he's just he's
Speaker 3: so sharp on approach this year that I don't see
Speaker 3: his weaknesses really showing up. Because this guy's always been
Speaker 3: a great scrambler, always been a great grinder, and his
Speaker 3: kind of his tee to green game has put what's
Speaker 3: held him back in the past. Well, guess what, He's
Speaker 3: as sharp as he's ever been, top seven in this
Speaker 3: field on approach, and he's one of the best par
Speaker 3: five scorers in this field period. He's at one hundred
Speaker 3: to one, and I can absolutely see Keegan Bradley going
Speaker 3: on one of those miracle runs where he just gets
Speaker 3: the crowd fired up and he goes out there and
Speaker 3: the patrons, as they call him at Augusta National, will
Speaker 3: definitely be behind the captain of TM USA for the
Speaker 3: Ryder Cup and the last one is two hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty to one. It's a yolo vet. It's just based
Speaker 3: on short game. Christian Bizet Note of South Africa. He
Speaker 3: hasn't won anything since twenty twenty, but he's playing his
Speaker 3: best golf of his career right now. He's got the
Speaker 3: short game to stay in contention, make the cut his
Speaker 3: top twenty bettest plus four hundred. I just think that
Speaker 3: it's something that's just it's a feel bet for me
Speaker 3: where I'm just looking at the course setup and who
Speaker 3: might fit in a basis. But he's played the Masters
Speaker 3: three times, not in the last two years, but though
Speaker 3: the three times he's played the Masters, he's made the
Speaker 3: cut all three times. So I do like his fit here,
Speaker 3: especially with the form he's carrying in.
Speaker 1: You could talk me into a first round leader bet
Speaker 1: On Baz Oh oh yeah, interesting, Oh yeah, for sure,
Speaker 1: I could see it.
Speaker 3: I'm sure it's good. It's probably thirty or forty to
Speaker 3: one at worst.
Speaker 1: Now now Patrick Reid at one hundred to one, Yes, please,
Speaker 1: one of the best short games in the world, A
Speaker 1: magician's touch around the greens. Patrick Reid won the Green
Speaker 1: Jacket in twenty eighteen and has been top ten in
Speaker 1: three of his six Masters appearances since the victory. Firm
Speaker 1: fast conditions would work in his favor. I believe, yes,
Speaker 1: I'm all over Patrick Reid at one hundred to one now.
Speaker 1: If anyone could win the Masters at age fifty four ball,
Speaker 1: it's Phil Michelson.
Speaker 3: Absolutely.
Speaker 1: He's won three Green jackets, he knows every inch of
Speaker 1: this course. His short game has made for the place,
Speaker 1: and he has been in good form lately. Third a
Speaker 1: Live Hong Kong last month, six that Live Miami this
Speaker 1: past week. He's one hundred and ten to one, and
Speaker 1: Cameron Young not great form this week long odds though,
Speaker 1: for a guy who's finished top ten in each of
Speaker 1: the last two years at the Masters and is strong
Speaker 1: with the driver, So I'm not sure I can get
Speaker 1: you on board.
Speaker 2: For that one bow. But just just throwing that out
Speaker 2: there for the people.
Speaker 3: It's the people. The people are gonna be fun. It's
Speaker 3: gonna be fun. Watching Cam Young try to put on anything,
Speaker 3: let alone the toughest screens that we're gonna see all year.
Speaker 3: It's it's gonna be entertainment at its finest. Yeah, watching
Speaker 3: Cam Young try to navigate these screens again.
Speaker 1: Oddly enough, I think he's in the just inside the
Speaker 1: top fifty and strokes gained putting this year right around fifty.
Speaker 1: But then you know, you look at last year and
Speaker 1: it was one hundred and fifty fourth, So that's a
Speaker 1: pretty good reflection of what kind of putter he actually is. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so let's get to the early betting cards. Bo who
Speaker 1: is on yours as of right now?
Speaker 3: So Xander Schaffley at plus eighteen hundred, Ludwig Oberg at
Speaker 3: plus two thousand, and then I dropped down to Hideki
Speaker 3: Matsiyama currently at plus three thousand, Cam Smith at plus
Speaker 3: six thousand, and then I'm gonna throw some darts at
Speaker 3: Keegan Bradley at plus ten thousand, and Christian is a
Speaker 3: newte at plus two twenty five two hundred fifty to one.
Speaker 1: Now, I'm not putting a lot on a John Ram outright,
Speaker 1: but I do have a little something on Ram at
Speaker 1: plus thirteen hundred I'm gonna I'm gonna follow your Xander
Speaker 1: Schaffley advice BO, just the way he's been so steely
Speaker 1: in recent majors. I'm gonna take him at plus eighteen hundred,
Speaker 1: Russell Henley plus fifty five hundred with a top ten
Speaker 1: kicker at plus three twenty, Will Zalatorus at plus sixty
Speaker 1: five hundred with a top five kicker at plus seven fifty.
Speaker 1: I'm doing Corey Connors for a top ten bow at
Speaker 1: plus four hundred. I don't think he can win, but
Speaker 1: I think he can finish top ten as well as
Speaker 1: he's been hitting the ball. Sergio Garcia for a top
Speaker 1: twenty at plus one seventy five. Mind you, at top twenty,
Speaker 1: Sergio has actually been playing pretty well lately. He's hitting
Speaker 1: the ball great. And Phil Mickelson for a top twenty
Speaker 1: at plus three hundred and to make the cut at
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. I think those are both really good bets.
Speaker 1: And then my two biggest investments of the week Bow
Speaker 1: I am ladder betting Patrick Reid one hundred to one
Speaker 1: to win, eleven to one for a top five, plus
Speaker 1: four fifty for a top ten, and plus one eighty
Speaker 1: for a top twenty and I have a substantial wager
Speaker 1: on Max Homa to miss the cut at even money
Speaker 1: plus one hundred. Home has been utterly lost this year.
Speaker 1: He's missed five straight cuts. His best finish was a
Speaker 1: fifty third at Pebble Beach back in February. Maxhoma recently
Speaker 1: changed caddies. He had one of his closest friends since
Speaker 1: childhood on his bag. They've parted ways. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's any way Maxhoma makes the cut this week. Maxhoma
Speaker 1: missing the cut is my favorite single bet of the week.
Speaker 1: I hate to be a grave dancer bow, but you know,
Speaker 1: I just think that's a fantastic money making opportunity. Now
Speaker 1: for our one and done picks. BO had Akshay Battia
Speaker 1: last week at the Valero. He missed the cut. Bo's
Speaker 1: very first miss cut of the year, ending a streak
Speaker 1: of thirteen straight events in which Bo's player made the cuts.
Speaker 1: I had Corey Connors. He tied for eighteenth, good for
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirteen and fifty dollars. You are up
Speaker 1: first at the Masters Bow.
Speaker 2: Who are you taking?
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna burn it right here.
Speaker 1: Scotty Scheffler, Oh, the big one there it is now
Speaker 1: for anyone in a one and done pool. I mean,
Speaker 1: I can't argue with Scotty Scheffler as a play like
Speaker 1: I would hope not in.
Speaker 2: A big money event.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I do think for most people, especially the
Speaker 1: people who might have might be saving Scotty, might have
Speaker 1: used Scotty somewhere else, I think the smart play is
Speaker 1: to take a live tour player this week. You only
Speaker 1: have four chances to use the stars of the Live Tour,
Speaker 1: the four Majors and a bunch of the tour guys
Speaker 1: have great track records at the Masters and games that
Speaker 1: are well suited for this course. So I do think
Speaker 1: it's game theory optimal to use a live player this week.
Speaker 1: I am going to take Big Jon Rahm. And that
Speaker 1: is all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast sponsored
Speaker 1: by DraftKings. We'd like to thank DraftKings for their sponsorship.
Speaker 1: Please come join us again next week for our recap
Speaker 1: of the Masters and our betting preview of the RBC Heritage.
Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone.
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