1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: Hey, everyone on pat fitsforis managing editor of Betting Pros 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: and Fantasy Pros, and I am going to run through 3 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: my favorite player props for wild card weekend and Week 4 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: eighteen was pretty good to us. We ended the regular 5 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: season on a high note, going six and two. That 6 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:21,159 Speaker 1: ended a two week losing streak and gave us some 7 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: momentum heading into the NFL playoffs. So let's get to it. 8 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 1: And just a reminder that all lines are courtesy of 9 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon. Here we go, Dak Prescott's 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: over one point five touchdown passes. Prescott is playing the 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: Buccaneers on Monday nights, and this number was actually juiced 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: slightly towards the under as of Thursday afternoon, so you 13 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: could get the over at minus one ten and uh yeah, 14 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: I'll take it. Prescott has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: eight of his last ten starts, and in four of 16 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 1: those eight multiple TV games he had three and not 17 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: merely two. He is facing a Buccaneers pass defense. They 18 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: gave up twenty nine touchdown passes this season. That's tied 19 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 1: for second most in the league, and Tampa Bay is 20 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: hard to run against, especially when Vita Vea. Their defensive 21 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: tackle is healthy. Vea is healthy, so that might influence 22 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: Dallas play calling when they get into the red zone. 23 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: Maybe they look to go through the air rather than 24 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: on the ground. I like Prescott to throw more than 25 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: one and a half touchdown passes. I think he throws 26 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 1: multiple tds in this one. Josh Allen over two hundred 27 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: and fifty seven point seven passing yards. It's kind of 28 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: surprising to see Allen's yardage total set so low. In 29 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: two previous starts against the Dolphins this season, he had 30 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: four hundred and three hundred and four passing yards, and 31 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: for the season, Allen has averaged two hundred and sixty 32 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: seven point seven passing yards per game. The Dolphins are 33 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: easier to pass against than to run against. And yeah, 34 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: Miami is twenty fifth in the league in DVOA against 35 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: the pass and give up the fifth most passing yards 36 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 1: during the regular season. So of course, weather is always 37 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: a concern when Buffalo is playing at home in winter, 38 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 1: but the forecast for this Sunday Buffalo is pretty mild, actually, 39 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 1: thirty one degrees sun and a four mile an hour wind, 40 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: which is a non factor. The one concern here is 41 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: that the Bills might be able to take their foot 42 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: off the gas pedal late in the game if they 43 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: get a big lead against the Dolphins, who are going 44 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: to be quarterbacked by third string rookie Skyler Thompson. Bills 45 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 1: are favored by thirteen in this one, and that number 46 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: might go up even higher, so it's possible they kind 47 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: of shut it down a little late in the game 48 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 1: and let the running game do most of the work. 49 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: But still I think the over on Josh Allen at 50 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty seven and a half passing yards 51 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 1: is a very good percentage played. Nonetheless, Kenneth Walker under 52 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: sixty point five rushing yards, and if you give me 53 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: a chance to bet on the San Francisco run defense, 54 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: I'm going to take it every time. The forty nine 55 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: Ers have been nearly impregnable against the run all season. 56 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 1: They have given up a league low fifty nine point 57 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: six rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and 58 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: the only individual player this season to run for sixty 59 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: yards or more against San Francisco all year was Josh Jacobs, 60 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: who ran for sixty nine yards against them in Week seventeen. 61 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: So Walker has averaged twenty six carries game over the 62 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: last three weeks. He has been a workhorse for Seattle. 63 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: But you wonder if they're going to keep slamming Walker 64 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 1: into a brick wall if they cannot get the running 65 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: game going against San Francisco. And I do think Seattle's 66 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: going to have a hard time, as everyone else has, 67 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: getting the running game going against San Francisco. And when 68 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: we saw the forty nine Ers beat the Seahawks in 69 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: Week fifteen by a score of twenty one to thirteen, 70 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: Walker had twelve carries for forty seven yards, so he 71 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: didn't get a lot of work. San Francisco's given up 72 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: three point three yards per carry to running backs this season. 73 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 1: I think they shut down Walker in this one. All right. 74 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,679 Speaker 1: I will get to the rest of my favorite player 75 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: props for a wild Card weekend in just a moment, 76 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: But first, do you want to track all of your 77 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: wagers in one place? Check out the Betting prospicktracker at 78 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up 79 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: with your sportsbooks to tally which picks hit and which 80 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,600 Speaker 1: ones miss, and it gives you a live look at 81 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: what the public is doing, so you can use real 82 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 1: time tracking to determine which place to make and which 83 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 1: ones to fade, get on the leaderboard and quickly become 84 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: a sharp by using the free advice we have to 85 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: offer at bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. Okay, 86 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 1: back to the play props and how about Travis etn 87 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: over seventy five point five rushing yards. Yeah, that's kind 88 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: of a big number. In fact, that is the highest 89 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: total on the board, the highest rushing total on the 90 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: board for wild Card weekend. I still like the over. 91 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: ETN had seven carries for only seventeen yards against Tennessee 92 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: last week, but the Titans have a fierce run defense. 93 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:30,039 Speaker 1: Etn's opponent this week, the Chargers, they do not not 94 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 1: in the least. The Chargers have well, they gave up 95 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: a league worst five point six yards per carry to 96 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: opposing running backs this year. That is a pretty terrible number, 97 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: and they've allowed opposing running backs to average one hundred 98 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 1: and twenty seven point three rushing yards a game against them, 99 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: second most behind only the Texans. And yes, last week 100 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 1: the Chargers were or the Jaguars were forced to abandon 101 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: the run against the Titans. But Etn in his three 102 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 1: previous games had cleared this number in all three, averaging 103 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: ninety eight rushing yards per game over that stretch. I 104 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: think he smashes this number in a home game against 105 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 1: a very bad Chargers run defense. All Right, George Kittle 106 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 1: over forty four and a half receiving yards. Kittle gets 107 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 1: another crack at a Seattle defense that he blowtorched for 108 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: ninety three receiving yards and two touchdowns less than a 109 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: month ago in Week fifteen. Seattle has been absolutely helpless 110 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: against tight ends this year. They've allowed one and fifteen 111 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: receiving yards to opposing tight ends, second most in the league. 112 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: Kittle has seen at least five targets in each of 113 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,239 Speaker 1: his last five games, and he is averaging nine point 114 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: two yards per target over that span. Even with Deebo 115 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: Samuel back for the forty nine Ers this week to 116 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 1: claim some of the targets from quarterback brock Perty, I 117 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: still like Kittle's chances to surpass forty four and a 118 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 1: half receiving yards. All Right. Austin Eckler in maybe my 119 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: favorite bet of the week over thirty five point five 120 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: receiving yards for Austin Eckler. So Eckler's been heavily involved 121 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: in the passing game for the Chargers all season long, 122 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: with one hundred and seven catches for seven hundred and 123 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: twenty two yards. The Chargers might have to lean on 124 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: Eckler even more than usual this week if Mike Williams 125 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: is not able to play or is limited. Williams sustained 126 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: a back injury in Week eighteen, and as of Thursday, 127 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: he has not been practicing, so he might be out. 128 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: If so, Eckler's probably going to get a few spillover targets. 129 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 1: And Eckler's facing a Jaguars defense that is easier to 130 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: throw on then to run on. And Jacksonville has been 131 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: especially susceptible to pass catching running backs this year. The 132 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: Jags have given up eight hundred and fifty three receiving 133 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: yards to running backs, second most behind only the Raiders. 134 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: And when Eckler faced the Jaguars way back in Week three, 135 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: eight catches for forty eight yards. So I like Eckler 136 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: to go over thirty five and a half this week. 137 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: And finally, a repeat pick from last week, Hayden Hurst 138 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: under thirty one point five receiving yards. Yeah. One of 139 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: my recommended props last week was Hurst under thirty point 140 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: five receiving yards against the Ravens, and here we are 141 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: again Bengals versus Ravens. Revenge game for Hayden Hurst, but 142 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: not a good revenge spot. As I mentioned last week, 143 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: when Jamar Chase and t Higgins have both been active 144 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: together the Bengals big two wide receivers, Hurst has not 145 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: done a whole lot. There have been eight such games 146 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: with Chase and Higgins both active, and Hurst has finished 147 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: with under thirty receiving yards in six of those eight games. 148 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 1: He's going up against the Ravens defense that's been tough 149 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 1: on tight ends this year. The Ravens have given up 150 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: the seventh fewest receiving yards to posing tight end. So 151 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,959 Speaker 1: Hurst under thirty one point five receiving yards. And let's 152 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: just recap all the wagers this week. Dak Prescott over 153 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: one and a half touchdown passes, Josh Allen over two 154 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty seven point seven passing yards, Kenneth Walker 155 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:20,839 Speaker 1: under sixty and a half rushing yards, Travis Etn over 156 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 1: seventy five and a half rushing yards, George Kittle over 157 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: forty four and a half receiving yards, Austin Eckler over 158 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 1: thirty five and a half receiving yards and hayden Hurst 159 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: under thirty one and a half receiving yards. My friends, 160 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: here's wishing you the best of luck with all your 161 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,719 Speaker 1: wagering on wild Card weekend and throughout the NFL playoffs. 162 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: We will be back next week for the best player 163 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: props of the Divisional round. Until then, good luck, happy wagering.