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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Phil Camparadi of JP

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Speaker 2: Morgan saying the pace of easing will be much slower

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Speaker 2: going forward. The labor market weakness from the summer was misread.

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Speaker 2: As long as the Fed can continue to carefully bring

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Speaker 2: raids down over the next year, our thesis of a

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Speaker 2: self lending and a broadening gout of equity returns will

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Speaker 2: be supported. Phil joined us now for more. Phil, good

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Speaker 2: morning to see you. Haven't seen you since the election,

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Speaker 2: and last time we spoke you were super bullish. Are

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Speaker 2: you even more bullish now?

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Speaker 1: Yes? So before the election we were saying it's going

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Speaker 1: to be really hard to fade us exceptionalism. We just

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Speaker 1: didn't know if it was going to be US exceptional

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Speaker 1: exceptionalism in lowercase with a period, or US exceptionalism in

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Speaker 1: like big bold letters with an exclamation point. And I

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Speaker 1: think we got the exclamation point. Okay, So we're still

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Speaker 1: bullsh We're still overweight by ten percent. We were ten

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Speaker 1: percent overweight equity the day before the election. We're ten

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Speaker 1: percent overweight today. And the two words that I took

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Speaker 1: from Chairman Powace quote yesterday, you know, the whole world

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Speaker 1: focused on hurry to cut rates. Mine was strength and

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Speaker 1: economy right. And that's the fundamental story, particularly with the

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Speaker 1: US consumer. John, I've been on this program talking about

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Speaker 1: the US consumer a lot, to the most important consumer

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Speaker 1: to get right. And October gave us such a big signal.

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Speaker 1: It was the largest one month gaining consumer confidence since

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Speaker 1: the reopening of twenty one, the biggest contribution to consumption

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Speaker 1: in the third quarter since the beginning of twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: and the BA found about a trillion dollar when they

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Speaker 1: revise the savings rate higher, So the US consumers to

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Speaker 1: US look strong. The bottom line for US fifteen percent

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Speaker 1: probability of recession over the next twelve months fifteen fifteen

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Speaker 1: is as low as you could possibly get. And you know,

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Speaker 1: for us, because snow sitting is zero probability. And at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, you want to make a

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Speaker 1: big deal about rates, the average ten year rate this

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Speaker 1: year has been four point two.

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Speaker 3: We're four point.

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Speaker 1: Four and the SMP has squeaked out twenty five percent

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Speaker 1: game Okay, so it's a it's a pretty supportive environment

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Speaker 1: for us still because of the fundamental signal.

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Speaker 2: That's the story. It's a beautiful story. Thank you got

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Speaker 2: to talk about a price of a story. Let's talk

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Speaker 2: about a price of a story. Credit sprints are ready

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Speaker 2: tight for what multiple is a pretty out of vitsh

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Speaker 2: We are seeing the days to come in pretty strong.

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Speaker 2: But that's while price. We've taken out a lot of

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Speaker 2: rate cuts already for the Federalserve. Just how well priced

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Speaker 2: is this story?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good question. So when when we were here pretty

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Speaker 1: much up through the summer, we were talking about the

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Speaker 1: cap weighted S ANDP we were talking about megacaptech, that's

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Speaker 1: still part of the story, John, But our two latest

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Speaker 1: trades have not been that one has been equal weight. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So get arbitrarily, just get a little bit of every stock,

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Speaker 1: but I think one of the ones that's really coming

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Speaker 1: up is MidCap now. So MidCap for us makes sense

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Speaker 1: for three reasons. One valuation seventeen times versus the twenty

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Speaker 1: two times that you're quoting on the S and P.

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Speaker 1: We have about a thirteen percent earnings growth for next year,

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Speaker 1: which looks pretty good, and you just don't need as

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Speaker 1: many rate cuts. Like it's got a little bit less

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Speaker 1: sensitivity than small cap. I mean, yes, we could have

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Speaker 1: jumped into the deep end of the pool about small cap,

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Speaker 1: but we're getting there through MidCap, So it's a broadening

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Speaker 1: out of us exceptionalism. Don't bail on the megacap, but

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Speaker 1: we're diversifying that with some other with some other things.

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Speaker 1: And then high yield at the end of the day, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, how tight could it go. It's like the

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Speaker 1: two faced high yield market. You have this like fifth

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Speaker 1: percentile spread right, and then you look at it again

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Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, my goodness, it's fiftieth percentile all

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Speaker 1: in yield, and a lot of our clients just want

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Speaker 1: the yield, including us. We want this boring, less glamorous

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Speaker 1: alpha trade of out yielding our index in a world

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Speaker 1: where the fundamental story continues to support hy YO well.

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Speaker 4: Usually one trade that works pretty well is the more

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Speaker 4: credit spreads titan, the better risk assets as a whole do.

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Speaker 4: If there's just less room now for credit spreads to tighten,

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Speaker 4: does that put any ceiling on risk overall or just

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Speaker 4: the correlations all out of WAC considering how tight things

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Speaker 4: have gotten.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's that's a good point. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a whole story, Danny of like macro volatility coming down.

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Speaker 1: I can make you know, this might not get the

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Speaker 1: best ratings, but I can make the case that uncertaint

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Speaker 1: is actually less now, not more. You know, post election,

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Speaker 1: we know who's there. We know also that if history

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Speaker 1: is a guide, a lot of companies tend to put

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Speaker 1: money to work no matter who they voted for after

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Speaker 1: an election, which I think can support the broadening out

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Speaker 1: rally that I'm talking about. We're not expecting hy yel

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Speaker 1: to titan. You know, maybe it should trade through treasuries

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Speaker 1: because one of those has one hundred percent des to

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Speaker 1: GDP and one of them doesn't. But that's that's not

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Speaker 1: going to happen. I think at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: the high yield story is in the background. Jenny Allen said,

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Speaker 1: it's like watching paint dry. That's what she wanted monetary

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Speaker 1: policy to be. That's what we want the high Yeld

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Speaker 1: carrier to in our portfolio.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so the rally broadens out. But does leadership change.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's that's the key. I think leadership

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Speaker 1: does change. I think it changes to things that are

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Speaker 1: more pro sicklic. Also, remember what I said at US exceptionalism,

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Speaker 1: bold letters, exclamation point. That just doesn't mean megacap. I

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Speaker 1: think it means that you have the financials and industrials

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Speaker 1: taking part, and that's how that's how we're positioned for

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Speaker 1: next year. I mean we have our soft landing definition

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Speaker 1: is about two to two and a half percent growth,

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Speaker 1: two to two and a half percent inflation. If you

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Speaker 1: just google nominal growth of five with earnings, you get

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Speaker 1: a lot of leadership in that environment. I think that's

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Speaker 1: that's pretty supportive. And one of the things I really

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Speaker 1: don't want to see is a fifty basis point rate cut.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to see that, and I don't want

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Speaker 1: to see a two percent CPI rate because I think

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Speaker 1: if that's happening, we're wrong on the fundamental story and

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Speaker 1: the growth story.

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Speaker 2: Last week, Immybely, after that election, we began surprise to

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Speaker 2: what looked like a really positive growth shock, really loud.

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Speaker 2: Mohammadel Erin came on the program and he said that

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Speaker 2: sound is the sucking sound of capital being tanken away

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Speaker 2: from the rest of the world into the United States.

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Speaker 2: You keep saying US exceptionalism. Why does it leave Europe?

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Speaker 2: Where does it leave China? Why does it leave Japan?

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Speaker 2: Where does it leave em.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you want to answer all those please, So I

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Speaker 1: think if I were going pecking order here, I think

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Speaker 1: it would go to the US. So out of our

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Speaker 1: ten percent overoid, eighty percent of that is in the US.

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Speaker 1: And then the other piece, John, we have a small

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Speaker 1: piece in emerging markets. So you know, in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: if you listen to anything President Trump said on the

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Speaker 1: campaign trail, you wouldn't have touched EM with a ten

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Speaker 1: foot poll. In twenty seventeen, EM was up thirty eight

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Speaker 1: percent because of the coordinated global growth theme, So the

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Speaker 1: fundamentals kind of went out there. I'm not saying that's

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Speaker 1: going to happen this time, but you know, we do

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Speaker 1: have an environment where at least China is acknowledging their

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Speaker 1: property market. It's fallen flat again, but it is somewhere

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Speaker 1: where we just want to be careful of being too underweight.

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Speaker 1: And then the Japan story, it just gets a little

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Speaker 1: complicated with the back of Japan normalizing rates and what

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Speaker 1: that does to dollar yen. I think it makes it

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Speaker 1: a little bit easier if the Fed's not going as much,

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Speaker 1: that the Bank of Japan can start to normalize and

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Speaker 1: it won't be like that early August trade. So in

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Speaker 1: terms of pecking order, I think it would go US

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Speaker 1: EM Japan, and then Europe would be a funding source.

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Speaker 1: At this point, they're growing at one, we're growing at three.

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Speaker 1: European Central Bank is cutting and we only have seventy

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Speaker 1: five basis points of easing priced down to the end

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Speaker 1: of next year. Okay, and that's kind of a weaker

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Speaker 1: euro story, which isn't great for investors.

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Speaker 4: Hearing you, no, you.

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Speaker 3: Sound so bullish. What's the risk of Donald Trump putting

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Speaker 3: on tariffs that are blankets sixty percent on Chinese imports

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Speaker 3: and ten percent from everywhere else.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So, Amory, I go back to twenty nineteen. President

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Speaker 1: Trump lost the majority in the midterm elections of twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 1: and growth that year was three and inflation was two

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Speaker 1: and the FED was cutting and I just don't I

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Speaker 1: just don't know if these tariffs are going to lead

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Speaker 1: to the inflation. I think it's more it could be

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Speaker 1: more of a growth side. But policy error, amory, probably

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Speaker 1: is our biggest risk, whether it be from the administration

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Speaker 1: or whether it be from the Federal Reserve. And I

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Speaker 1: think the Federal Reserve kind of got the message. They

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Speaker 1: thought the Unpluyner ray was going to be four point four.

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Speaker 1: At the end of this year, it's four to one.

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Speaker 1: But to your point, the policy err is probably the

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Speaker 1: biggest risk. It's not the left tail, it's not recession,

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Speaker 1: it's policy error from the administration of the Fed.

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Speaker 3: Then what would be the catalyst for that fifteen percent

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Speaker 3: recession called possibility, which I know is low, But what

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Speaker 3: would be the catalyst?

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Speaker 1: It would be business caution and then kind of kind

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Speaker 1: of layoff. So we're watching initial job as claims really closely.

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Speaker 1: So do claims or the labor market show signs of cracking.

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Speaker 1: There was like this hoodwink earlier this year that the

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Speaker 1: FED fell for and Claudia sam was like, no, it's

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Speaker 1: not happening. So so I think at the end, at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, would have to come from

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Speaker 1: the labor market, amory, and then the uncertainty as you said,

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Speaker 1: on tariffs on growth, and then that's the business caution

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Speaker 1: and it kind of goes the other way.

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Speaker 2: Not price didn't right now, clearly A turned that to

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Speaker 2: be right at least South Fond Jobs claims yesterday to seventeen. Phil,

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Speaker 2: it's wonderful to catch up with you. Thank you for

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Speaker 2: getting up town your thoughts. Thank you, sir, Phil Camparadi

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Speaker 2: that of JP Morgan. Turning to Nvidia, Frankly of HSBC,

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Speaker 2: raising his price target on the chip maker to a

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Speaker 2: joint Street high at two hundred, writing, we have pondered

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Speaker 2: this amazing growth trajectory, and not only do we see

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Speaker 2: no signs of a slowdown, we expect further upside in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six data center momentum, which in our view

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Speaker 2: is still not fully priced in by the market. Frank

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Speaker 2: joins us now for more, Frank, welcome to the program, sir.

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Speaker 2: I just want your opinion on what's behind that train

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Speaker 2: and why it doesn't slow down anytime soon.

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Speaker 5: Sure, I think it's you know, every couple of months,

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Speaker 5: everyone I think, goes through the same question of can

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Speaker 5: Nvidia continue on this amadian growth trajectory. It is now

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Speaker 5: approaching kind of untraur territory in terms of the market

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Speaker 5: cap of the company. But what we continue to see

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Speaker 5: is that the overall spending on hyperscular capex continues to

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Speaker 5: go up. Since May, we've noticed there's been a twenty

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Speaker 5: percent upward revision in the overall street consensus view for

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Speaker 5: the four major hyperscalers. If we look at that in

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Speaker 5: terms of potential server capbex next year for AI, we

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Speaker 5: think that's going to be more enough to cover and

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Speaker 5: videos growth, at least for the going into next year.

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Speaker 2: Frank, We've got to talk about the source of that

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Speaker 2: demand and how strong you believe that biggest customers are

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Speaker 2: and whether those customers you think have demonstrated and done

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Speaker 2: a good enough job of justifying their investment over the

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Speaker 2: last few years. Do you think they're doing that?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, No, I think that's a great question. I mean

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Speaker 5: the question that everyone comes back to is you know

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Speaker 5: the investment that's going on, you know, what's the return,

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Speaker 5: what's a moneization? It is a fair question, and it's

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Speaker 5: not a question that I think has been fully answered.

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Speaker 5: But I think from what we can see is that

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Speaker 5: the spending continues and into twenty twenty five, there's no

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Speaker 5: sign of any slowdown. And we've also seen I think

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Speaker 5: collaboration from what we're seeing on a supply chain in Asia,

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Speaker 5: we've continue to see many companies out here that continue

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Speaker 5: to see upward revisions from the in video supply chain.

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Speaker 5: So it seems to be going hand in hand in

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Speaker 5: terms of the investments we're seeing from the hyperscalers as

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Speaker 5: well as we're seeing in a supply chain.

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Speaker 4: But just given that, Frank, I mean, is there not

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Speaker 4: some form of concentration risk for Nvidio when Microsoft makes

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Speaker 4: up nearly twenty percent of your revenue meta another ten,

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Speaker 4: aren't these real risks if any of them pull back

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Speaker 4: even slightly?

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Speaker 5: That's a good question. I think, you know, the risk

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Speaker 5: constitution risks are still there, but it is diversifying. So

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Speaker 5: as an example is if you look at the enterprise,

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Speaker 5: which is a non Hyperscaler's right, they're becoming a bigger

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Speaker 5: and bigger part of this market. You know, if you

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Speaker 5: look about eighteen months ago, I would say hyperscalar spending

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Speaker 5: is probably eighty percent of the market. Now it's probably

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Speaker 5: looking to be about sixty percent of the market, so well,

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Speaker 5: it is still a very high concentration that risks is

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Speaker 5: coming down. You're seeing further expansion into the corporate world

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Speaker 5: in terms of spending there. So that's why you see

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Speaker 5: companies like Dell, which are traditionally not leveraged to the

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Speaker 5: hyperscalar growth, they're seeing very strong growth dijector in AI

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Speaker 5: as well.

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Speaker 4: So, Frank, we're going to from the company in about

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Speaker 4: five days time on the twentieth for their earnings, options

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Speaker 4: markets pricing and something like an eight percent move either way.

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Speaker 4: What sort of fireworks are expecting on the day?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think you know, they will have

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Speaker 5: a beat on their revenues. We expect they'll beat on

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Speaker 5: the current quarter as well as give a better guide

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Speaker 5: relative to consensus. That being said, though, the share prices

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Speaker 5: have had a very good run into the earnings, and

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Speaker 5: so whether that's going to be enough to really give

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Speaker 5: the market an extra boost, I think it still remains

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Speaker 5: to be seen. But I think we're taking a view

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Speaker 5: that you know, it's not just the next two quarters,

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Speaker 5: but if you look at all of twenty all of

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Speaker 5: next year, we do feel that confident that they'll still

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Speaker 5: be further upside in terms of the market expectation.

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Speaker 3: I wanted to ask you about what was going on

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Speaker 3: with the DOJ they sent Sepedas to Navidia in September.

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Speaker 3: For Nvidia is do you see a change of an

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Speaker 3: environment with the election and potentially what policy regulation could

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Speaker 3: look like for the company next year.

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Speaker 5: I think it's uh, there's going to be a lot

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Speaker 5: more probably uncertainty and noise now, but I think it

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Speaker 5: doesn't change the fundamentals. The fundamentals is that you know,

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Speaker 5: the company's dominant position in AI is unchanged. We don't

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Speaker 5: see any immediate competition. In fact, I think the hyperscolas themselves,

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Speaker 5: who have every interest to try and develop their own

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Speaker 5: chip to reduce their dependency on Nvidia, is not able

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Speaker 5: to do that. In fact, I think you know some

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Speaker 5: of their own ships are designing. The momentum is actually

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Speaker 5: slower next year, So it shows you that, you know,

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Speaker 5: in terms of being the compete, we still don't see

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Speaker 5: anybody naring that gap yet. So I think the fundamental

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Speaker 5: is not going to be changed. There will be probably

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Speaker 5: a lot more I think just headlines, but I think

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Speaker 5: if you just look at the overall earnings growth and expectations,

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Speaker 5: I think that remains largely entering what.

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Speaker 3: About outside the United States geopolitical concerns, especially when it

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Speaker 3: comes to the fact that the chips are made in

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Speaker 3: Taiwan and we have a president elect who's very hawkish

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Speaker 3: and his rhetoric is very hot when it comes to China.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think, you know, if you think about

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Speaker 5: the China exposure for Nvidia's whole, it is coming down.

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Speaker 5: You know, at its peak, you know, China was probably

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Speaker 5: more than twenty percent of its revenues. It's now at

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Speaker 5: a point where I think China itself is only going

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Speaker 5: to account probably for somewhere around ten percent of its revenue.

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Speaker 5: So it's come down in terms of that as being

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Speaker 5: an end market. As far as I think where the

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Speaker 5: chips are made, you know, I think that's not something

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Speaker 5: that's going to change in the near term. You know

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Speaker 5: that the TSMC is building fat factories in the US,

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Speaker 5: but it's going to take some time before they able

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Speaker 5: to build increased production there. So I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: reality is is that well, there's going to be some

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Speaker 5: rhetic around it. It doesn't change the fact that the

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Speaker 5: manufacturing base is going to still stay in Taiwan given

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Speaker 5: the dominance of TSMC, and that's not something that's going

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Speaker 5: to change in probably anytime soon.

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Speaker 4: Fank. When it comes to the politics for the Chips Act,

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Speaker 4: out of one hundred and twenty three million dollars, a

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Speaker 4: total of thirty three billion has ad sorry. Out of

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Speaker 4: a total thirty three billion dollars for the Chips Act,

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Speaker 4: only one hundred and twenty three million has been announced.

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Speaker 4: As we head into the twilight of the Biden administration,

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Speaker 4: what sort of pushes do you expect them to make

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Speaker 4: with the Chips Act? Can anything else get done?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, there's not going to be that much time left.

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Speaker 5: And I think if you think about, you know, the

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Speaker 5: Chips Act, you know, there hasn't been that much money

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Speaker 5: as you said, as you pointed out, actually been given out.

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Speaker 5: I think we're the majority of the Chips Act associated

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Speaker 5: Chips Act. That's helped companies like Intel has been the

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Speaker 5: tax credit, so they've been able to get I think,

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Speaker 5: you know, the the the advantages on tech credit, but

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Speaker 5: they haven't really gotten enough substitution. In fact, no one's

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Speaker 5: really has, so I think if you think about I

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Speaker 5: don't think it changes the tackleus of things. I think

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Speaker 5: at the end day, you know, the on shoring trend

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Speaker 5: is going to continue, will continue to take time, But

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Speaker 5: I don't think it really changes, you know, the trajectory

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Speaker 5: where you know there will be that people will be

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Speaker 5: looking to change their investment cycle. I think that's I

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Speaker 5: think the longer term geopolitical events is here to stay.

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Speaker 5: Uh and and I think company is going to build

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Speaker 5: regardless of how much funding to get.

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Speaker 2: Frank good to catch you up, appreciate it gun into

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Speaker 2: when video annings a week away, frankly that of HSBC.

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Speaker 2: So here's the laces. This morning, retailer is reporting over

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Speaker 2: the next week, facing down the prospect of higher tariffs

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Speaker 2: and a shortened holiday shopping period. Greg Melick of Evercore

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Speaker 2: airsie remaining optimistic. Election clarity is hopefully a cheap form

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Speaker 2: of stimulus. Trump tariffs and tax cuts should prove neutral

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Speaker 2: to positive. Greg joins us now for more, Greg, Before

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Speaker 2: we get into holiday shopping and the consumption boom we

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Speaker 2: might see over the next few months, can we just

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Speaker 2: talk about how these retailers might manage inventory between now

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Speaker 2: and inauguration of President elect Donald Trump, whether we're going

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Speaker 2: to see these massive imports come from China, whether that's

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Speaker 2: already started to get ahead of those tariffs.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't think there's any surge ahead of teriffs

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Speaker 6: for a lot of large retailers and even smaller ones.

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Speaker 7: We went through this a few.

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Speaker 6: Years ago, so they have a playbook as to what

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Speaker 6: they're going to need to do ahead of those sort

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Speaker 6: of shifts.

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Speaker 7: And I guess what I would say is right now

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Speaker 7: they're still.

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Speaker 6: Dealing with remembering very recently the problems we have at

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Speaker 6: the ports on the West Coast a few years ago

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Speaker 6: and getting that inventory in time. So I think they're

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Speaker 6: still there being cautious in terms of how much inventory

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Speaker 6: they bring in earlier quick ahead of some theoretical tariff

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Speaker 6: change which will be very basically country and product specific.

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Speaker 7: Probably at the.

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Speaker 2: End of the day, Greg, how much more resilient other

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Speaker 2: supply chains now have that diverted traffic away from China

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Speaker 2: or is it going through somewhere else away from Mexico.

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Speaker 2: What are the big changes that you can identify.

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Speaker 6: It's a great question, I think from if we go

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Speaker 6: back to pre the tariffs, so it's back twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 6: twenty eighteen, it looks like what retailers are bringing in

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Speaker 6: from China is down probably twenty five to thirty percent.

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Speaker 6: A lot of that hasn't moved back to the US.

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Speaker 6: It's moved to Mexico, it's moved to Vietnam, it's moved

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Speaker 6: to India. So there's been a broadening out of the

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Speaker 6: global supply chain. And basically this will probably further accelerate

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Speaker 6: that trend to go to where products can come in

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Speaker 6: with higher quality at a lower costs. And there might

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Speaker 6: even be some reshoring as well, or near shoring that

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Speaker 6: has been part of the trend, but not the major movement.

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Speaker 4: Greg The date I want to know about not Trump's inauguration,

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Speaker 4: but January fifteenth. That's when the deadline for the Long

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Speaker 4: Shortman Association expires and they need to come up with

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Speaker 4: a new deal. What is the risk that we have

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Speaker 4: a repeat or something worse than we did in months prior,

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Speaker 4: especially with the new administration that's for all accounts, less

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Speaker 4: friendly to unions.

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Speaker 6: Look, that's a great question, and factically, I'm glad you

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Speaker 6: brought it up, because as we talked to retailers and vendors,

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Speaker 6: we're finding that that date hopefully.

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Speaker 7: Will get sorted, but that's still a very real.

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Speaker 6: And relevant date without any theoretical tariff changes in the future.

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Speaker 6: So making sure that we have the products that we

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Speaker 6: need if there is a disruption and if a final

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Speaker 6: deal isn't signed by then is important.

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Speaker 7: So look at there's a lot of moving pieces. And

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Speaker 7: that's why I would say even the.

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Speaker 6: We think the consumers in a better spot and we'll

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Speaker 6: be slightly better into next year, it's certainly not a

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Speaker 6: V shaped recovery by any stretch the imagination.

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Speaker 4: Let's talk about that better spot for the short term.

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Speaker 4: What do you anticipate the holiday season demand to look like.

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Speaker 6: We're looking for retail sales to settle out at this

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Speaker 6: three to three and a half percent nominal growth rate.

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Speaker 6: We'll get October numbers later today, which we think will

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Speaker 6: be in that range, and the things we're watching. If

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Speaker 6: there's certainly the categories that we think are starting to

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Speaker 6: have rolling recoveries, we think home improvement is one that

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Speaker 6: after fourteen quarters of negative traffic at home, deep Bone

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Speaker 6: lows that that's a category that will start to term

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Speaker 6: positive next year, maybe not by.

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Speaker 7: First quarter, but certainly later in the year.

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Speaker 6: Because our home improvement lead indicator has had a pretty

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Speaker 6: sharp acceleration the.

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Speaker 7: Last six months.

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Speaker 3: Ahead of the holiday period, though, I'm looking at names

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Speaker 3: like Target, Walmart, Amazon, when people are going to potentially

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Speaker 3: go and buy some of these big ticket Christmas items,

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Speaker 3: who do you think is going to fare the best?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 7: I think it's the trend that we've seen all this

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Speaker 7: year continues.

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Speaker 6: The consumer is willing to spend, but they're very cautious

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Speaker 6: and value focused, and they want to see newness. And

434
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 6: what we've seen from that is Amazon, Walmart, and Costco

435
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 6: so far have combined for seventy percent of retail dollar

436
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 6: growth this year, So retail sales are up a little

437
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 6: over three percent. If you x out those three retailers,

438
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 6: retail sales are growing one percent. So I think for

439
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 6: a lot of the other ones, it's really catching the

440
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,920
Speaker 6: right trend, having the right product, having the newest, making

441
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,360
Speaker 6: sure you lean into value. That's how some of those

442
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 6: other retailers can hold through this. But I think those

443
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 6: three Amazon, Costco, and Walmart are in a very good spot.

444
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 3: Apparently, those five fewer holiday shopping days when it comes

445
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 3: to this season, do you think that's going to affect

446
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 3: the outlook.

447
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,439
Speaker 6: Yes, I have the gray hair to remember when this

448
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,640
Speaker 6: bigger impact. I think that e commerce growth and now

449
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 6: twenty two to twenty three percent of US retail sales

450
00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 6: has changed it. And maybe it's a little less of

451
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 6: an act because there's more flexibility on how people shop

452
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 6: and acquire goods for holiday.

453
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 7: But at the end of the day, I would say

454
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 7: it might.

455
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 6: Be fifty BIPs of pressure all else equel, just because

456
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 6: there's there's fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas to get

457
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 6: stuff done.

458
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: They're trying to wedd days. Trust me, Greg, we went

459
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 2: to bloom Mindow's day after Halloween straight away. Christmas music

460
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 2: didn't stop?

461
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 3: Did they jingle bows? It was ridiculous.

462
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, appreciate your time. Let's catch up again soon, Greg Malick.

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00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:36,119
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