1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Why would a man without a lottery ticket shoot himself 2 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: after hearing the winning numbers? Who is the most disappointed 3 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: person at the Olympics? And what does this have to 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: do with Pan American airlines or botox? And why should 5 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: you always put yourself in the shoes of future people? 6 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to enter cosmos with me David Eagleman. I'm a 7 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: neuroscientist and an author at Stanford and in these episodes 8 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: we sail deeply into our three pound universe to understand 9 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 1: why and how our lives look the way they do. 10 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: Today's episode is about mental time travel. Now we've done 11 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: two episodes in the past two weeks on time traveling. 12 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: I started with the concept of memory, which is our 13 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: way of unhooking from the here and now and putting 14 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: ourselves into past time points. And in order to do this, 15 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: you need this whole network of brain areas that are 16 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,680 Speaker 1: involved in situating you not in the world that's right 17 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: in front of you, but a remembered world. This network 18 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: allows you to resimulate what the spatial layout was, who 19 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: was there, what your emotions were, sounds and smells. All 20 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: of this is run like a simulation, and nobody else 21 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: can see it. It takes place entirely in the privacy 22 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: of your own skull. Then last week I talked about 23 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: the other direction of time travel. Imagining possible futures. Simulation 24 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: of what could happen next is one of the most 25 00:01:55,360 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: important jobs of brains. We plan out what are going 26 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: to say, what we're going to do, how we're going 27 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: to act in a situation, what might happen to us, 28 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: and on and on. And as a reminder about a 29 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: couple important points I made throughout those episodes. Point one 30 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,399 Speaker 1: was that we spend most of our time as humans 31 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: disconnected from the here and now and playing these little 32 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 1: movies in our heads were reminiscing on the past or 33 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: we're simulating the future. And point two is it turns 34 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: out to actually be the same core network of brain 35 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: areas that's involved both in memory and in simulation of 36 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: the future. If a person gets damaged to a particular 37 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: part of their brain, like the hippocampus, they can get amnesia, 38 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: meaning that they can't remember anything about their past, and 39 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: they also end up unable to simulate possible futures. If 40 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: you ask them to imagine standing in the shopping mall 41 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: in an hour from now, they just draw a blank. 42 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: They can't put a simulation together. They're not seeing a 43 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: little movie in their heads. So memory and future imagination 44 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: use the same brain mechanisms. They are both versions of simulation. 45 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 1: So I used to think that who you are is 46 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: the sum total of your memories. But it's even more 47 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: interesting than that, because I would argue now that who 48 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: you are includes the sum total of your future simulations. 49 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 1: If you're a person who envisions big goals for yourself, 50 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: that makes you a bit different from someone who has 51 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: pedestrian goals. Now, from the outside, you don't know what 52 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: a person is simulating. On the inside, you see someone 53 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 1: sitting at the restaurant booth next to you, sipping on 54 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: their coffee, and you don't know if they're thinking deeply 55 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: about their path to a Nobel prize or instead they're 56 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: just thinking about wanting a bag of chips at the 57 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: local gas station. In the same way that we don't 58 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: act out our dreams when we're asleep, we can dream 59 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: of the past and future without execution by the awake body. 60 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 1: So now we're all set up for two days episode, 61 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: and this one involves a hypothesis that I've been working 62 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 1: on for years. And to get going, I'm going to 63 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: start with a small event that happened in Liverpool, England 64 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety five when a man was listening to 65 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: the radio. So this man had a wife and two children, 66 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: and he was listening to the lottery numbers being read out. Now, 67 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: he did not have a lottery ticket, but he listened 68 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: to the first number and he was transfixed. Now the 69 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 1: second number was announced, and then the third, and the fourth, 70 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: and he was frozen. And after the sixth number got 71 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: read out, he went and got down his gun and 72 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: he shot himself. Six numbers that translated to his suicide, 73 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: even though he didn't have a lottery ticket. Where the 74 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: numbers some sort of code. What exactly had happened will 75 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: return to Tim's story in a moment. First, I want 76 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: to tell you about facial muscles. So just over one 77 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty years ago, a French neurologist named Guillome 78 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: Duchen studied lots of patients, and he's immortalized in the 79 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: names of diseases like Duschen's muscular dystrophe and several others. 80 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: But somewhat less known about him is that he was 81 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: obsessed with using electrodes to send zaps of electricity into 82 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 1: facial muscles to characterize how facial expressions got made. And 83 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: what he realized is that when a person smiles, it's 84 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: caused by the contraction of just two very particular muscles 85 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: of the face. Around the mouth. There's a muscle called 86 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: the zygomaticus major, which raises the corners of the mouth 87 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:06,119 Speaker 1: and draws it back, and the muscles around the eye, 88 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: called the orbicularis oculide, raise the cheeks and send out 89 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: crows feet around the eyes. And so when your mouth 90 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 1: and eyes smile at the same time, this is called 91 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: smising or smiling with the eyes, and this is described 92 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: as the Duchen smile. But why does this have a 93 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: special name Because people eventually realized that this only happens 94 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: when someone is genuinely happy. But there's another way that 95 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: people sometimes smile when they're not actually happy, and this 96 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: is known as a non Duchen smile, and it involves 97 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 1: only the zygomaticus major muscle around the mouth and nothing 98 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: goes on around the eyes. Now, as it turns out, 99 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: several groups have researched smiles, which sounds like a really 100 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 1: fun job, and the conclusion is that the eye muscles 101 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 1: are only involved when someone is actually happy. In other words, 102 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 1: the Duschen smile only occurs when there is genuine positive emotion. 103 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: People have long noticed the non Dushen smile, and for 104 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: a long time this was popularly called the pan Am 105 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: smile after the airliner where the flight stewardesses apparently gave 106 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:25,119 Speaker 1: this same non smising smile to everyone all the time 107 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: because they weren't genuinely happy. Also, bowtos can paralyze the 108 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: small muscles around the eye, which means that people with 109 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: botox sometimes just can't pull off a smiling with the 110 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: eyes Duschen smile, and so a non dus Shen smile 111 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: is sometimes called a botox smile as well. Okay, I 112 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: tell you all that because of an observation that has 113 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: been replicated multiple times, and that involves the question who 114 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: is happiest when they receive an Olympic medal. Now, it 115 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: seems like the answer is obvious. The gold medalist is 116 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: the most happy, the silver medallist is the next happiest, 117 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: and the bronze medallist is the least happy. But that's 118 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: not what researchers find. Instead, they find that the gold 119 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: and bronze medalists are the most happy, and this silver 120 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: medalist is the least happy. For example, one study examined 121 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: photographs from eighty four medallists from the two thousand and 122 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: four Athens Olympics, and they found that at the metal ceremony, 123 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 1: the gold and bronze medallists tended to have Duchen smiles, 124 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: while the silver medallists tended to have non Duchen smiles. 125 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 1: In other words, the silver medallists weren't really smiling joyfully. 126 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: And this was actually an extension of a study that 127 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: had been done a decade earlier, when three researchers gathered 128 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: footage from the metal ceremonies of the nineteen ninety two 129 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: Summer Olympics in Barcelona, and they got a bunch of 130 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: undergraduates to rate the happiness of each medalist from one 131 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: to ten, where one was agony, in ten was ecstasy. 132 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: At the ceremonies where they are given the medals, the 133 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 1: silver medallists scored an average of four point three on 134 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: this happiness scale, while the bronze medalists scored a five 135 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: point seven. The bronze medalists were happier, and it was 136 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 1: obvious to everyone with the naked eye. Now this is weird, right, 137 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: How could the second place winners be less happy than 138 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: the third place winners? So let's unpack what's happening here. 139 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: Why would a man commit suicide after hearing the lottery numbers? 140 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: And why would a silver medalist be more disappointed than 141 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: a bronze medallist. The key is what is known as 142 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: counterfactual thinking. The brain doesn't just run simulations forwards and backwards, 143 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 1: but it can step back to past time points and 144 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: crank things forward to see what could have been now. 145 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: In other words, this is not a simulation of the future, 146 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: but instead a simulation of the present from a previous 147 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: time point. This is called counterfactual thinking because the now 148 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:24,599 Speaker 1: that gets simulated is not factual. It's the brain's own construction, 149 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: its own internal creation. But we can imagine present moments 150 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: that might have been. Now. Why did the man in 151 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: Liverpool shoot himself after hearing the lottery numbers? It was 152 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: because he had been playing those exact numbers every week 153 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 1: for five weeks, that sequence of six numbers, but this 154 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 1: week he hadn't bought the ticket. As he listened to 155 00:10:56,240 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: the numbers being read out, he thought those were my numbers. 156 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: He envisioned the ways that his life could have changed. 157 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: If he had just bought that ticket, His present would 158 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: be different. He could immediately plug into a pastime point 159 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: and crank the machinery forward to a potential now, a 160 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: now that didn't happen, and the comparison of that now 161 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: to the present was overwhelming to him. He thought about 162 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: his potential now, the one he had missed. He pictured 163 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: having an ability to pay those bills, to finish off 164 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:36,439 Speaker 1: his mortgage, to beat the financial struggles that he was facing, 165 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: and he was haunted by this now that wasn't real, 166 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: that was counterfactual, but that could have been. It felt 167 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 1: so distant from where he was in reality, everything would 168 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: be different if he had just bought that ticket. He 169 00:11:55,440 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: was filled with regret, a regret so strong wrong that 170 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: he chose to end his life. Now, I suggest we 171 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: can understand regret from a computational point of view, in 172 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 1: other words, an algorithm that the brain runs. The key 173 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: is that for most situations, the emotion of regret acts 174 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: as a learning signal. That means your brain readjusts itself 175 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 1: based on that signal. So if you get mad at 176 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 1: someone and say something mean and then that person stops 177 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: talking with you. You might feel regret about what you've done 178 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: to that relationship, because in the present moment you have 179 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: lost a friendship, and your brain runs the simulation from 180 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: that past time point moving forward, in which it constructs 181 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: a scenario where you didn't say or do that offensive thing, 182 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: and you're still friends. And you compare your actual present, 183 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: which is uncomfortable and bad, to your simulated present in 184 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 1: which every thing is warm and close, and the difference 185 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:08,199 Speaker 1: generates a signal of regret, and your brain uses that 186 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 1: signal to learn on to hopefully improve its performance next time. 187 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 1: Here's another example. Kids are always saying no to things 188 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: that their parents want them to do, and parents, when 189 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 1: they are thoughtful about this, will let this kind of 190 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: learning signal do its own work. So the parent says, hey, 191 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 1: it's freezing outside, put on your jacket, and the kid says, 192 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: I don't want to wear a jacket. I'm not gonna 193 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: do it. So after some push and shove, the right 194 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: thing for the parent to do is say, fine, don't 195 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: do it. There will be natural consequences. So the kid 196 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 1: goes out and after a while finds that he's really 197 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: cold and uncomfortable. So he now has this learning signal 198 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:56,559 Speaker 1: that tells him, had I taken the jacket, my now 199 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 1: would be different, I would be warm. And the regret, 200 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: the regret that they feel, navigates their future behavior. I 201 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: saw a quotation from the author Kurt Vonnegut, who wrote, 202 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: of all the words of mice and men, the saddest 203 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 1: r it might have been, But I slightly disagree. I 204 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: would rephrase it, Of all the thoughts of mice and men, 205 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: the most important r it might have been. Regret is 206 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: a way for us to build different nows moving forward. Now, 207 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: note that in some circumstances, you might take a past 208 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: time point and crank that forward, and that imagined now, 209 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: your counterfactual now is actually worse than you're real now, 210 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: and in that case you experience a different emotion relief. 211 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: This is what happens if you're considering investing in some 212 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: stock and then you don't get around to it, and 213 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 1: then you find out the company went out of business 214 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: and the lost all their money on it. Your present 215 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: now is better than it would have been, so you 216 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: feel relief at the path that you took versus what 217 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: you might have done, or to return to the weather. 218 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: Imagine that you go for a day hike and then 219 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: it rains unexpectedly, and you know you don't have an 220 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: umbrella in your car, but you search around in the 221 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: trunk of your car anyway, and then you find one 222 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 1: and you feel relief. And again, this can be a 223 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: learning signal because it tells your brain, hey, this was 224 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: a fortunate accident, but you can make this happen more 225 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 1: purposefully from now on. So let's return to the Olympic medalists. 226 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: Why is there the happiness difference between the silver and 227 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: the bronze medalist Where the silver medalist is less happy. 228 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: It's because the silver medalist almost got gold but missed. 229 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 1: He or she is running the simulation over and over 230 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: of how things could have gone, and in those imagined scenarios, 231 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: they're the ones standing on the top platform and getting 232 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: wreathed with gold. The bronze medalist, in contrast, is just 233 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: happy to be there. They know they're not good enough 234 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: for gold or silver, and they can imagine plenty of 235 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: scenarios where they're not on the platform at all. So 236 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: the silver medallists now is worse than his other imaginary now's, 237 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: while the bronze holders now is better than most of 238 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: his imagined scenarios. Now, interestingly, this general observation about second 239 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 1: place winners is not new. In eighteen ninety two, the 240 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: great American psychologist William James touched on this. He wrote, quote, 241 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: so we have the paradox of a man shamed to 242 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: death because he is only the second pugilist or the 243 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: second oarsman in the world that he is able to 244 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: beat the whole population of the globe minus one is 245 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: nothing end quote. So the second place winner is so 246 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 1: close to a victory that could have been, and that 247 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: is a more painful place to be. So this is 248 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: mental time travel. But it's not from now to the past, 249 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: which is memory, as I talked about two episodes ago. 250 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,880 Speaker 1: And it's not from now to the future, which is prediction, 251 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 1: which I talked about in the last episode. But instead 252 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: this is starting from past time points and simulating forward 253 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: to what could have been right now now. I want 254 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 1: to make a point that I'll return to at the end, 255 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: which is that as you simulate yourself for all these 256 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 1: different time points, this allows you to see different possibilities 257 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 1: about who you could have been. And so in this sense, 258 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: you're used to thinking about different us, different versions of 259 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: yourself that might have existed. So before we dive deeper 260 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 1: into the science, we're going to take a moment to 261 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: dive into the literature. I'm going to read a story 262 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 1: from my book of short stories. Some this story is 263 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: called subjunctive. In the afterlife, you are judged not against 264 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:29,360 Speaker 1: other people, but against yourself. Specifically, you are judged against 265 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: what you could have been. So the afterworld is much 266 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 1: like the present world, but it now includes all the 267 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: us that could have been. In an elevator, you might 268 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 1: find more successful versions of yourself, perhaps the you that 269 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 1: chose to leave your hometown three years earlier, or the 270 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: you that happened to board an airplane next to a 271 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: company president who then hired you. As you meet these ewes, 272 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 1: you experience a pride of the sort you feel for 273 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: a successful cousin. Although the accomplishments don't directly belong to you, 274 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: it somehow feels close. But soon you fall victim to intimidation. 275 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: These us are not really you. They are better than you. 276 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: They made smarter choices, worked harder, invested the extra effort 277 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: into pushing on closed doors. These doors eventually broke open 278 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 1: for them and allowed their lives to splash out in 279 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 1: colorful new directions. Such success can't be explained away by 280 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 1: a better genetic hand. Instead, they played your cards better 281 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 1: in their parallel lives. They made better decisions, avoided moral lapses, 282 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 1: did not give up on love so easily. They worked 283 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: harder than you did to correct their mistakes, and apologized 284 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: more often. Eventually you cannot stand hanging around these better use. 285 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: You discover you've never felt more competitive with anyone in 286 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 1: your life. You try to mingle with the lesser use, 287 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: but it doesn't assuage the sting. In truth, you have 288 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: little sympathy for these less significant use and more than 289 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: a little haughtiness about their indolence. If you had quit 290 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 1: watching TV and gotten off the couch, you wouldn't be 291 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: in this situation. You tell them when you bother to 292 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: interact with them at all, but the better use are 293 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: always in your face. In the afterlife. In the bookstore, 294 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: you'll see one of them arm in arm with the 295 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 1: affectionate woman who you let slip away. Another you is 296 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: browsing the shelves, running his fingers over the book he 297 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 1: actually finished writing, And look at this one jogging past outside. 298 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 1: He's got a much better body than yours, thanks to 299 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: a consistency at the gym that you never kept up. 300 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:55,119 Speaker 1: Eventually you sink into a defensive posture, seeking reasons why 301 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 1: you wouldn't want to be so well behaved and virtuous. 302 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: In any case, you grudgingly be friends some of the 303 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,360 Speaker 1: lesser use and go drinking with them. Even at the bar, 304 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 1: you see the better use buying rounds for their friends, 305 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: celebrating their latest good choice, And thus your punishment is 306 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: cleverly and automatically regulated in the afterlife. The more you 307 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 1: fall short of your potential, the more of these annoying 308 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: selves you are forced to deal with. So that's the 309 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: sense in which our constant time travel generates lots of 310 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: different versions of who we could be, and presumably there's 311 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 1: no afterlife where we meet them, but nonetheless different use 312 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 1: exist right now, trapped in the boundaries of your skull. Now, 313 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: I'll mention one interesting note about regret, one that's been 314 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 1: noticed by psychologists and economists, and I'm going to tell 315 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,959 Speaker 1: you this just in case you decide to open a restaurant. 316 00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,880 Speaker 1: Don't have too many choices on the menu, because when 317 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,639 Speaker 1: there are too many choices, customers feel higher levels of 318 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 1: regret after the meal is over. How do we understand this, Well, 319 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: you can only choose one thing for your main meal. 320 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: If there were lots of choices on the menu, then 321 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: your brain keeps running simulations of Oh, I would have 322 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: gotten this, and this is what the experience could have 323 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 1: been like, or I could have gotten that, or I 324 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: could have gotten that. More choices lead to more regret afterward. 325 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 1: So compare going to the cheesecake factory, which has a 326 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 1: twelve page menu spilling over with choices, versus you go 327 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: to in an Outburger whose menu reads Hamburger cheeseburger fries. 328 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: So when you're done with an in an Outburger meal, 329 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 1: you don't really have much of anything to compare for 330 00:22:55,480 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 1: what could have been. But after a cheesecake factory meal, 331 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: your brain unconsciously churns on all the choices that it 332 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: didn't take, and it might conclude, correctly or incorrectly, that 333 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,239 Speaker 1: one of those other choices would have been better, and 334 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 1: then you feel slightly less happy about the choice you made. 335 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,640 Speaker 1: So here's where we are so far. Regret is any 336 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: emotion that a companies negative outcomes to decisions for which 337 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: we've been responsible. But it turns out, since we are 338 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: creatures who are so good at moving around in time, mentally, 339 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:41,919 Speaker 1: we come to operate and make decisions based on anticipated regret. 340 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,919 Speaker 1: That is, we come to anticipate the emotional consequences of 341 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 1: decisions we're making now. So imagine you're facing two choices. 342 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 1: Let's say which new job to take, and one of 343 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: them is a really risky startup with big dreams about 344 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,359 Speaker 1: where they'll go, and the other is a well established 345 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 1: company that's a little boring but very stable. So a 346 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: lot of people will gravitate toward the stable choice, and 347 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 1: you might think, fine, I get it, they're avoiding risk. 348 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 1: But there's a slightly richer way to view this, which 349 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: is that they're avoiding anticipated regret. If one of the 350 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: choices is risky and the other certain, and the startup 351 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: goes out of business, you'll feel bad that you took 352 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: such a big risk. But if the stable company were 353 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: to go out of business, you wouldn't feel much regret 354 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: because that was an unforeseen possibility. You had made the 355 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 1: right choice by placing your chips on something that was 356 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 1: unlikely to fail. So the simulation of the future generally 357 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: drives people to choose the safer choice to avoid the 358 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: possibility of feeling the really bad feelings later. This is 359 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 1: also suggested to be why you will buy a brand 360 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: that you know, even if it it's more expensive, over 361 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,400 Speaker 1: a brand that you don't know that's less expensive, even 362 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 1: though it's a better deal to take the unknown brand, 363 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,119 Speaker 1: For many people, it feels worth it to spend the 364 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: extra money because they anticipate they will have more regret 365 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 1: if the unknown brand ends up being a bad choice. 366 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: And this comes up in a thousand ways in our lives. 367 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: Anticipated regret is what gets you to buy something that's 368 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 1: on sale now instead of waiting for maybe a better 369 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: sale later, because you're afraid that the sale won't last. 370 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,640 Speaker 1: And then you'll think, oh, man, I could have had 371 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 1: that for ten percent off, but I waited and I 372 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: missed my chance. It's not that you're experiencing regret now, 373 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: it's that you're anticipating that you will feel regret in 374 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: the future, and so that steers your behavior now. And 375 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,120 Speaker 1: this is of course what high pressure car salesmen try 376 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 1: to do when they say I'll give you this special discount, 377 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: but it only applies right now. The second you walk 378 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 1: off this car lot, the offer goes away forever, so 379 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 1: you simulate how you would feel if you lost this 380 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 1: offer that's being dangled in front of you right now. 381 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: The anticipation of that regret spurs you into actions so 382 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,920 Speaker 1: you won't have to feel bad later. So your brain 383 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:26,400 Speaker 1: simulates futures and it feels them, and often that includes 384 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 1: questions like how bad will I feel if I lose 385 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 1: this gamble. You don't just minimize risk, you minimize the 386 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: regret that you expect to feel. But anticipated regret isn't 387 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 1: just about avoiding risk. Sometimes you can leverage the issue 388 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:49,159 Speaker 1: of anticipation to improve your decision making. So when I 389 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 1: was younger, if I was having a hard time making 390 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: a decision between two choices, my mother would tell me 391 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 1: to toss a coin. Heads meant that I would take 392 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: the first choice, and tails meant I would take the 393 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 1: second choice. But the coin toss wasn't the thing. The key, 394 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 1: she told me was to toss the coin and see 395 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: the result, and then see how that result felt in 396 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: my gut. When you see which choice gets indicated by 397 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 1: the coin, you might feel a tiny bit of relief, 398 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: well I'm glad Atlanta that way, or you might feel 399 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:29,200 Speaker 1: instead a tinge of regret, and the second that that 400 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,360 Speaker 1: regret bubbles up, then you know that the other choice 401 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 1: is the better one for you. And here's another example. 402 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: Let's return to the issue of getting a kid to 403 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: wear a jacket in the snow. When the parent says, look, 404 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,880 Speaker 1: it's natural consequences. That's one way to teach the kid, 405 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 1: But really what they're hoping for is that the anticipated 406 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,680 Speaker 1: regret will be enough the kid will think about how 407 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,879 Speaker 1: things might feel in the future when they are shivering miserably, 408 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,840 Speaker 1: and that anticipated regret will be sufficient to force their 409 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:08,159 Speaker 1: hand to make the right choice now. And before we 410 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 1: move on, I'll just mention an interesting tangent here, which 411 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: is that people with psychopathy. Psychopaths generally have much lower 412 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 1: anxiety than the general population. Why it's because one of 413 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:28,399 Speaker 1: the characteristics of psychopathy is an inability to simulate possible futures. So, 414 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: just as an example, if I hook up electrodes to 415 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 1: your tongue and then I say, okay, I'm hooking the 416 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 1: other end to this car battery and you're going to 417 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 1: get this terrible shock on your tongue, you will probably 418 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 1: feel a lot of trepidation and anxiety and maybe break 419 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 1: a sweat. But that's not what happens to somebody who 420 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 1: is a psychopath. They just don't care. They don't get 421 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 1: sweaty and anxious. And it's not because they're tougher than you. 422 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 1: It's simply because their brains don't simulate the future very well. Now, 423 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 1: I'm going to do a whole episode on psychopaths in 424 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 1: the near future, so if you're interested in this and 425 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: what else is going on in psychopathy, please tune in 426 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: for that one. But for now, I'm going to get 427 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 1: back to normal brains. Given the fact that we simulate 428 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 1: futures and understand how we might feel in those futures, 429 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 1: there's an interesting trick that we can use to improve 430 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 1: our own decision making, and that is to put ourselves 431 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: in the shoes of future people looking back at us. 432 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: Why because this gives us a very good way to 433 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 1: ethically steer our own behavior. The world is full of temptations, 434 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 1: and some of them aren't that big deal, but some 435 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 1: of them are worth resisting. And one way you can 436 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 1: do this is to imagine looking back on your choice 437 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: from some future point, when you see how all of 438 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 1: this played out. A friend of mine refers to this 439 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 1: as the concept of book, bell and candle, which means 440 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 1: something very particular in the spy world. But what he 441 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:05,480 Speaker 1: meant was, whatever you're considering doing, imagine how you would 442 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 1: feel about this if it were written down in a 443 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: book that everyone could read. Or your action causes a 444 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 1: bell to ring such that everyone's attention turns to what 445 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 1: you did, or a candle lights up the hidden thing 446 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 1: you did. How would you feel if everybody could see 447 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 1: that you've done it. The point is to put yourself 448 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 1: in the future and imagine retrospectively that you have been caught. 449 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 1: How would that make you feel? There are many ways 450 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 1: of placing yourself in the future and looking back. A 451 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 1: colleague of mine as an epidemiologist named Gary Slutkin, and 452 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 1: many years ago he started working with gangs in Chicago 453 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 1: to see if he could reduce the violence. Now, there 454 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 1: are many ways of thinking about intervening to reduce violence, 455 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 1: including tougher laws or longer prison sentences, but Gary started 456 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 1: thinking about this differently. He noticed, for example, that these 457 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 1: gang members don't act badly in front of their grandmothers, 458 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: but they do in front of their peers, and so 459 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 1: they're clearly able to assess a situation from different points 460 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 1: of view. So he had an amazing idea, which was 461 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: to employ former gang members who had previously been incarcerated 462 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 1: and who wanted to reduce the violence in their own neighborhood. 463 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 1: And they came on board as what he called the interrupters, 464 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: and the idea was for them to change a gang 465 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: member's behavior in the moment by making them think about 466 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 1: the future. So he got the interrupters to intervene when say, 467 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 1: a gang member felt he'd been wrong then he wanted 468 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 1: to go in exact revenge, and the interrupter would say 469 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 1: something like, hey, think about this for a minute. When 470 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 1: you go to jail for shooting that guy who's gonna 471 00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:01,000 Speaker 1: be with your girl Gary. And people think about this 472 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 1: as reframing, but in the context of this episode, I'm 473 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 1: casting this as anticipated regret. And this kind of time 474 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 1: travel imagining yourself in jail and someone else being with 475 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 1: your girlfriend was very effective in steering people's behavior. It 476 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 1: forced people to time travel to a what if moment 477 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 1: that otherwise they would not have visited. Now Interestingly, I 478 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 1: want to clarify that our feelings of anticipated regret are 479 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 1: not always a perfect steering mechanism. For us, because we 480 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: often assume that our near future counterfactuals are going to 481 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 1: be more appealing than they actually turn out to be 482 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:05,680 Speaker 1: in reality. In other words, the grass always seems greener 483 00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 1: on the other side of the temporal fence. So what 484 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 1: does this have to do with civil wars or why 485 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 1: the Balkan nations split off, or why the Arab Emirates 486 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 1: came together, or why England split off from the European Union. 487 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 1: So let me answer that by going back to one 488 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 1: of the great classical novels of Chinese literature. It's a 489 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 1: fourteenth century novel whose title translates to Romance of the 490 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 1: Three Kingdoms, and this novel spends eight hundred thousand words 491 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 1: dealing with the battles and plots, both personal and military, 492 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 1: of different people and groups trying to achieve dominance for 493 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 1: almost a century. It's like Game of Thrones before Game 494 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 1: of Thrones and without the dragons. Anyhow, the key thing 495 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 1: I want to note is the opening lines, which I've 496 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 1: always found shockingly in sight full. The opening lines go 497 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 1: like this, the Empire, long divided, must unite, long united, 498 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:14,040 Speaker 1: must divide. Thus has it ever been? In other words, 499 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:19,440 Speaker 1: the prediction here is that all unified countries are eventually 500 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 1: going to decide it's better to split up, and all 501 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:27,320 Speaker 1: divided countries will eventually decide it's better to link arms 502 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,760 Speaker 1: into a union. This is something that characterizes world history. 503 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 1: But why does it happen? Well, there may be lots 504 00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: of reasons, including economic factors and agricultural factors and political expediency. 505 00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:44,799 Speaker 1: But I'm going to suggest there's a neural factor too, 506 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 1: and that has to do with people running the counter factuals. 507 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:53,280 Speaker 1: What would it be like if we were together? Wouldn't 508 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:57,319 Speaker 1: that be terrific? Or we're all tangled up in each 509 00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:01,840 Speaker 1: other's business, wouldn't things be better if we were independent? 510 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 1: And my assertion is that we have a slight bias 511 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 1: for concluding that it would be better whichever way we 512 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:14,760 Speaker 1: haven't experienced. Why. Well, it's because we're not perfect simulators, 513 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:19,400 Speaker 1: and so we believe that the low resolution simulation in 514 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: our heads is actually a good one, even though it 515 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:27,319 Speaker 1: lacks all the blemishes of reality. So we believe that 516 00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,279 Speaker 1: everyone will be happy and get along. And wouldn't it 517 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,480 Speaker 1: be great if we were unified, or wouldn't it be 518 00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,520 Speaker 1: great if we were finally separated and we compare our 519 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:42,880 Speaker 1: sanitized simulation against reality. This is the same thing, of course, 520 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:47,520 Speaker 1: with relationships. When we're young and single, we continually fantasize 521 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 1: about a partner that we're gonna meet. The partner always 522 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,560 Speaker 1: says the right thing, always makes us feel great, never 523 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 1: has something on his or her mind that causes distractions 524 00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 1: so that they don't actually listen to you, but realize 525 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,280 Speaker 1: life is always more complex, for worse and for better 526 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:09,160 Speaker 1: than our imaginations can simulate. So now on to the 527 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 1: last act we've been seeing so far. In all these 528 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 1: episodes that we are creatures who mentally travel to different 529 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:20,480 Speaker 1: points in time. We constantly simulate ourselves in the past 530 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: for memory, or simulate ourselves in the future to steer 531 00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:30,319 Speaker 1: decision making, or we simulate possible now's to understand what 532 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:35,080 Speaker 1: we should have done better. And this kind of time traveling, 533 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 1: if we do it intelligently, can allow us to steer 534 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:44,800 Speaker 1: our lives a bit better than we otherwise might. For example, 535 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,759 Speaker 1: as we get better at thinking about and interacting with 536 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:52,600 Speaker 1: all these different temporal versions of ourselves, we can actively 537 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 1: cultivate our ability to simulate these well. And this is 538 00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 1: what we get out of visualization, out of actively putting 539 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:06,480 Speaker 1: ourselves in a detailed future simulation. So here's an example. 540 00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 1: I recently met a new friend named Brian Burke who's 541 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,200 Speaker 1: an LA filmmaker, and he'll ask people, hey, do you 542 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: want to be a film director? It's not that hard, 543 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,400 Speaker 1: and the person might say, genuinely, I don't think I 544 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,799 Speaker 1: could ever do that, and he says, look, here's all 545 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,000 Speaker 1: you need to do to become a film director. You 546 00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,160 Speaker 1: write a ten minute script and then you get your 547 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 1: cell phone camera and a couple friends to shoot it, 548 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,280 Speaker 1: and then you do all the editing, and he says 549 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:36,000 Speaker 1: it'll suck for sure. So then you do it again. 550 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,080 Speaker 1: You write a new script, and you shoot it again 551 00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,880 Speaker 1: on your cell phone, and you edit it again and 552 00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,759 Speaker 1: it'll probably still suck. And then you do that a 553 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,200 Speaker 1: third time and you find you're getting a little bit 554 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,160 Speaker 1: better at this, and then he says at the end 555 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 1: of that you'll be as good as most of the 556 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,400 Speaker 1: directors in Los Angeles. And this simple technique of walking 557 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 1: somebody in detail through a future, this really moves and 558 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,959 Speaker 1: inspires people, especially people for whom it had never even 559 00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 1: struck them that they could possibly think of being a 560 00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,759 Speaker 1: film director in their internal model. They have a job 561 00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,960 Speaker 1: and they're doing fine at that, and they've never meaningfully 562 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,799 Speaker 1: considered film directing. That's a totally foreign thing that other 563 00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,680 Speaker 1: people do. But all it takes is someone doing them 564 00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:22,400 Speaker 1: the favor of walking them through some steps in the 565 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:26,480 Speaker 1: imagination what it would take to get there, and suddenly 566 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 1: they see that it's not impossible. And this is why 567 00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:37,400 Speaker 1: visualization of possible futures is so meaningful. It fleshes out 568 00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,520 Speaker 1: what the path can look like. When someone sees the 569 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:44,520 Speaker 1: path clearly, then it doesn't seem so hard to get started. 570 00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:49,200 Speaker 1: And visualization or imagination this can also steer your behavior 571 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 1: away from certain things that you don't want to do 572 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:56,279 Speaker 1: again by making them feel real. A colleague of Mind 573 00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,640 Speaker 1: named Jack Keene started an app to get seniors to exercise, 574 00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,160 Speaker 1: and the idea is to use AI to show the 575 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:08,080 Speaker 1: person a picture of themselves. If they do and if 576 00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:12,600 Speaker 1: they don't exercise, they see their body in good shape 577 00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,319 Speaker 1: or not in good shape. And once it's something they 578 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:19,200 Speaker 1: can picture, then it is more real. And there are 579 00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:23,000 Speaker 1: lower resolution versions of this. For example, in episode nine, 580 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:26,239 Speaker 1: I outline some ways that we can get good at 581 00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:30,440 Speaker 1: navigating our future behavior, and one example I mentioned is 582 00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,560 Speaker 1: for people who are trying to lose weight. You have 583 00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:37,040 Speaker 1: them find a picture of themselves where they look more 584 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,759 Speaker 1: overweight than they would like to and you get them 585 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,200 Speaker 1: to stick that picture on the fridge and that way, 586 00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,279 Speaker 1: every time they go to the fridge to graze, that 587 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:50,120 Speaker 1: picture reminds them of what they want to accomplish, and 588 00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,960 Speaker 1: it does so by allowing them to see right in 589 00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:57,120 Speaker 1: front of them their future if they don't modify their behavior, 590 00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,959 Speaker 1: and getting people to think about possible futures, good and bad. 591 00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:05,600 Speaker 1: This is what coaching is about. Sports coaching or life coaching. 592 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,600 Speaker 1: A coach's job is to expand your model of what's 593 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,840 Speaker 1: possible and to move you through the next steps and 594 00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:18,000 Speaker 1: get your aim straight on who you could be. Generally, 595 00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,640 Speaker 1: being able to visualize something makes it like a prediction 596 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:25,000 Speaker 1: that you can chase after, or defend against, or prepare 597 00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:29,560 Speaker 1: for or whatever. It refines the simulation and makes it 598 00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:35,799 Speaker 1: feel more real. So wrapping up the past three episodes, 599 00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:41,759 Speaker 1: who you are is the sum total of layered time scales. 600 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,000 Speaker 1: When you walk down the street, you look to other 601 00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,920 Speaker 1: people like you're just a person walking down the street, 602 00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 1: but your brain is colorful and alive with reminiscence of 603 00:40:55,560 --> 00:41:00,480 Speaker 1: your past, simulations of a variety of possible futures, and 604 00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:05,560 Speaker 1: all your regrets and reliefs that result from simulations of 605 00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:11,799 Speaker 1: hypothetical nows, and this rich layering of time, this is 606 00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 1: what makes humans so nuanced and complex and fascinating. And 607 00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,320 Speaker 1: as we come to learn what is happening under the hood, 608 00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,279 Speaker 1: and we get better at taking advantage of these mechanisms, 609 00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,800 Speaker 1: that gives us a small grip on a very powerful 610 00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:34,160 Speaker 1: tool to navigate ourselves in the direction of who we 611 00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:43,080 Speaker 1: would like to be. Go to Eagleman dot com slash 612 00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:47,040 Speaker 1: podcast for more information and to find further reading. Send 613 00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,239 Speaker 1: me an email at podcasts at eagleman dot com with 614 00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,520 Speaker 1: questions or discussion and I'll be making an episode soon 615 00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:59,240 Speaker 1: in which I address those. Until next time, I'm David Eagleman, 616 00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,319 Speaker 1: and this is Inner Cosmos.