WEBVTT - Best NFL Draft Props (Ep. 51) 0:00:07.440 --> 0:00:09.800 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:13.240 the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:15.880 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adie. 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:19.960 The NFL Draft is about to be here, thankfully we 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:23.599 will have something to focus on in this crazy world 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:26.159 that we're in. With me to break down some of 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:29.880 our favorite prop bets is my good friend Rich Ryan. 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:32.120 You can find him over at the grid Iron Gamble 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:35.280 podcast and on Twitter at rich t Ryan. 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:40.440 Rich How are you gambling? It's something, right, are you? 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.640 Are you going crazy on Madden simulations or anything like that? 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.800 You know, I picked up NBA two K kind of 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:50.280 when this whole thing was starting, and I've been grinding 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:54.360 that a little bit. But no, the simulating, my favorite 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:57.160 is the folks that are simulating like old games. I'm 0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:01.160 talking like NCAA basketball game, and I guess old is 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:05.360 a relative terms and sign. I'm in my young thirties, 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.839 but I'm talking like mid two thousands college basketball games 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.120 and just throwing it up. But yeah, you could tell 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:15.080 last night, recording this on a Monday morning, how thirsty 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:17.840 everybody was for just even a semblance of sports as 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:22.800 we all live. Tweeted the Michael Jordan documentary. 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.160 It was pretty amazing though, right, I mean, I don't 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.360 think they oversold it. It had so much hype coming 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:29.440 into it, but I think it pretty much delivered for 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:30.400 the first two episodes. 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:33.399 Oh and behind the scenes, the team that's doing this 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:37.720 or doing amazing work. This was supposed to be delivered 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:41.720 in June. Evidently the last five episodes haven't even been 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.080 completed yet in the editing bay. So the time and 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.000 effort that these guys are putting in to cut this 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:49.920 and something that you know, we're enjoying it now, but 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:54.240 I mean, this is gonna last, you know, many lifetimes 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:58.200 beyond this as kind of the the documentary about Michael Jordan. 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:00.720 For them to be under that time crunch is pretty incredible. 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:03.640 Yeah, they're doing an amazing job. It really did deliver, 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:05.680 at least the first two episodes. I'm sure the rest 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:08.040 will be great. I'm excited to show it to my son, 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.720 who is obsessed with Lebron because he is obsessed with 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:14.799 all great athletes, he's pretty much a front runner. I'm 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:17.480 excited to show him, you know, teach him about Michael 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:20.920 Jordan through this with you know, the the edited version 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:22.120 of it, which doesn't have. 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:26.040 Version of I mean, he's six, so we have to 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:26.520 be careful. 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:30.160 But anyway, all of that was a nice little return 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:34.399 to sports, shall we say. But now we've got something tangible, 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:36.720 We've got something real. We've got the NFL Draft. 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.239 It's gonna be weird. Okay, it's gonna be. 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:43.160 Really really weird with everyone doing it remotely, everyone on 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:47.520 zoom and calls, and I'm really kind of secretly hoping 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.440 that they're going to be various technical mishaps and stuff 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:52.680 like that, just because it'll be fun to watch. But 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:55.840 either way, everyone is going to be watching it, and 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:59.280 everyone is finally going to have something real to gamble on. 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:00.480 So that's what we're going to do today. We're going 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:03.400 to talk about some of our favorite prop bets. We're 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.600 gonna be using the consensus lines as we always do. 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:08.560 Over at bettingpros dot com. You can get the draft 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:12.280 props one at Bettingpros dot com slash Draft hyphen props. 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:14.440 You can see there's a whole range of things, as 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:16.840 I'm sure Rich will also be doing. You know, you 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:19.880 can do specific players or teams or whatever you want 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:21.760 to do. So we're gonna go through just a few 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:25.440 of our favorite ones here and we'll see what happens 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.040 out of curiosity. Rich you correct me if I'm wrong, 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:29.919 and please don't take this the wrong way. You've been 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:33.079 on this podcast several times. You are a Jets van. 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:33.520 Correct? 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:38.200 Unfortunately, Yes, as am I. So I mean named after 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:43.320 the great Richard Todd. A lifetime of misery. Yeah, my 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:47.400 father is an insane person, somehow convincing my mom to 0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:50.600 name me Richard Todd Ryan. But yes, a lifetime of 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:54.480 misery thirty two years so far, and a lifetime beyond 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:55.680 this undoubtedly. 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:58.600 Well I've got thirty nine, so I'm beating you there. 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:01.480 But yeah, out of here, do any of your favorite 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:02.640 props have to do with the Jets. 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:05.160 I had to come on, I had to Jets. 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:07.520 Then we'll save it. Then we'll save it. That's fine. 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:08.840 I was going to ask you whether or not you 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.520 had anything fun if they weren't one of your props, 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:12.880 but I assumed you were going there. 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:14.840 So anyway, you can start us off Jets or not. 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.200 But what's your first one that you're looking at here? 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:21.440 So this part of draft season is very intriguing to 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:24.200 me because if you take the long view, if you 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:27.039 look at the predictability of the draft. At the beginning, 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:30.960 there's two axises, right, there's player evaluation and then they're sourcing. 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:34.359 And as we progress through this process and get closer 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:38.240 to the draft, the sourcing element of this, in my opinion, 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:44.000 becomes more important than the player evaluation because these reporters, 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:47.440 these beat guys, they do a great job of talking 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.880 to people within organizations. That's why sometimes you see betting 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:53.680 odds so high. I mean, just look at Burrow and 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:58.560 Chase at the beginning of the draft, Chase Young. The 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.520 odds are astronomy that they're going to be selected in 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:04.000 the places they are, and a lot of that has 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:07.000 to do with the fact that these organizations have tipped 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:09.680 their hand or they've been transparent to a reporter or 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:14.080 two throughout this process. And in the last couple of days, 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:20.520 it seems quite evident that the NFL is quite cold 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.240 on to a Taga Viola. And that's the last time 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:25.880 I'll attempt his surname on this. 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:28.800 Just to be clear, I'm very impressed that you did 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:31.719 it even once, because I just I don't know, two 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:34.240 months ago. I mean, I can do it because I 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:35.320 have to be able to do it, but I have 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:39.360 just completely stopped lest I mess it up. So I've 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:40.960 just been to it so already. The fact that he 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:43.120 did it once, I'm impressed. 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:47.240 And it's it's not the wonderlick, right. That whole story 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.159 is a bit of a clown show. He took it 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:51.520 in twenty eighteen, got a thirteen. He just retook it. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.520 He scored a nineteen. The average is a twenty. So 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:56.480 let's get that crappy narrative out of here. 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:58.760 Also, by the way, just to be clear, I mean 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:03.520 Lamar Jackson. Realize that Lamar Jackson is primarily a runner, 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:06.039 but he also scored a thirteen. So even if that 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.440 were the case, I thought it was completely overblown personally. 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:11.560 But yes, it's either way, it's been essentially debunked. 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.760 Yeah, so let's get that out of here. It's more 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:17.960 to do with the hip and the medical and during 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:23.560 these crazy times, how uncertain NFL teams are surrounding him. So, 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:28.760 based upon the evidence that I'm seeing from reporters and 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.880 sourcing and not the player evaluation, the first prop bet 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.400 that I'm going to offer is Tua as the third 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:40.960 quarterback drafted at plus one point fifty. I think it's 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:46.000 quite clear that he is going to quote unquote fall now, 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:49.719 whether that be to eighteen, which I saw one Detroit 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:53.760 Free Press writer say yesterday their sources were alluding to. 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:57.480 I don't know about that, but him falling to even six, 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.240 to that spot to the Chargers would be a precipitous 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:03.240 fall from where we thought two was going to be 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:06.359 selected just a few weeks ago. So I'm going to 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:10.320 lead it off quarterback, the most sexy position, Tua going 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:11.480 third at plus one hundred. 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:14.640 So I do like it. I'm buying this. 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.240 You know, everything that's coming out, and again you talked 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:19.120 about it, that's part of what we're doing. I mean, 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:22.440 maybe with the Jets, but other than that, will probably 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:25.600 basically be breaking this down as a lot more sourcing 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.640 as opposed to what we think maybe should happen or 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:30.320 you know, who we think is the best and stuff 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.920 like that, because that's really irrelevant when you're talking about 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:36.680 draft props. What we want doesn't matter. But yeah, I'm 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:39.040 buying this. I don't think eighteen. I did see that 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.760 as well, that that tweet that came out. I'm not 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:43.480 buying that either, But I think as a third one 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.800 and I'm just gonna point this out and believe me, 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.240 this is in no way faulting you whatsoever, because this 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:51.280 has happened to me six times today to talk. 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:52.840 About where we are, which is why. 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:54.960 You really need to move as soon as you get 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.480 an inkling on what you want to do. The consensus 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:00.240 odds right now have dropped to even on to A 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:02.800 being the third quarterback, and you had it at plus 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.520 one fifty. I believe it's now even. I still see. 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:07.160 I'm looking at the various books. You can get it 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:10.000 at plus one fifteen at william Hill, plus one ten 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:12.400 at points Bet. But for the most part it's down 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:16.000 to even because that's probably what's going to happen at 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:16.360 this point. 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:16.960 So I like it. 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:18.880 So I have a tuo prop as well. I'm going 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:20.560 to throw it in here to get on with you. 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:22.640 I agree that'd be one that I would go at 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:26.000 for me if I'm going to get a little I 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:28.960 don't know. Let's call it sexier to the extent you 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:32.080 can invoke sexier when you're talking about the Jaguars. I'm 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.800 going to go to to the Jaguars, which currently is 0:08:35.840 --> 0:08:38.839 at plus five hundred. It was at you right. You 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:41.760 can get it higher at various places. You can get 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:44.480 at plus seven hundred at a variety spots. But I'm 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:47.120 buying the talk of him sliding for sure. I think 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:50.600 that that's true. And you know, I'm just not sure 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.839 at this point that you really want to risk if 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:56.880 you're the Dolphins, if you're the Chargers, if you really 0:08:57.080 --> 0:08:59.079 want to risk that spot. I mean, there are a 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:02.120 lot of quarterbacks this draft. You know, they're varying levels 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:04.320 of confidence in how good their careers are going to be. 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.360 But if you're gonna take him at five, take him 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:09.400 at six, you've got to be really confident that this 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:12.720 guy is going to be able to succeed in the NFL. 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:14.240 And with all the stuff that's. 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.000 Going on, especially in his short term but all the 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:18.280 reports going on about his health, I think he is 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.040 gonna slide. And so that's why I do like your bet. 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:24.320 But where is he going to slide to? To me, man, 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:27.520 it is just hard to see him getting past the 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:30.439 Jags at nine if he does, because the Jaguars are 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:33.400 not competing this year. If ever, there was essentially an 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:37.160 outright tank that's basically what they're doing. And I know 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:40.240 they have minshoes, So he's certainly the quote unquote answer 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:43.520 in the short term, but it's a splash. Man con 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:45.920 likes to make the splash. It's long term. 0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:47.480 He can look that way. 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.760 It would you know, whether you know, bring fans, which 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:53.720 may not be happening this year, but it would garner 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:56.640 more interest in the team. So to me, at nine 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:00.360 with the jagsonding there, that's just where I think who 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.520 is gonna wind up going If he does fall now, 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:06.040 I don't know, he still could go six to the Chargers. 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.600 The Chargers could trade up to get Herbert, and he 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:11.080 could go five to the Dolphins. You know, who knows 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:13.959 at this point. But for me, you know, if you're 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:16.240 getting you know, plus five hundred, it wasn't as great. 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.680 I got it when it was plus seven hundred, and 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:20.360 you can still get that at some places. But at 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:22.719 plus five hundred to the Jags, that's still one and 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.040 I'm willing to, you know, dip my toes in the 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:25.679 water a little bit. 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:25.920 Yeah. 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:29.120 Evan Silva, the famed Evan Silva, who I believe had 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:31.880 the third most accurate mock draft last year according to 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:36.120 you guys at Fantasy Pros, has this to a going 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:38.920 to the Jags at nine and logically, it makes sense 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.040 if you were to slip past that five and six 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:44.800 spot the Dolphins and Chargers respectively. Look the Panthers, It's 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:47.120 not like Teddy Bridgewater is the best, but they gave. 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:48.160 Him a ton of money. 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.520 I don't think the Cardinals are going to Josh Rosen 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:55.200 Kyler Murray. I think we can sidestep back. And then 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:58.000 you look at the Jags and it doesn't seem like 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:01.680 there's a consensus even between the sourced members of the 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:05.040 community as to what they're gonna do with that ninth pick. 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:10.400 And you mentioned Sead his son is a very analytical guy. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:18.040 Runs Fulham Football club over in England as well. Loves 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:21.199 things like DVOA and football outsiders, which you might not 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:24.079 think of when you think of the Jags, and now 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:27.959 they've performed as of late, but a very analytical team 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.440 running that football division. And it wouldn't shock me to 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.840 see them quote unquote punt on this year to rehab 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:37.360 somebody as talented as Tua Can. 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:40.720 I throw another real curveball out at you and just 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:42.280 want to know what you think of this. Is there 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:45.320 any chance am I just being crazy? What about for 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:49.600 Tua in this specific team? What about the Pats at 0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:52.920 plus two thousand. I mean, look, they are, you know, 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:56.520 apparently going with Stidham, but they don't get the chance 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.440 to draft one of these great quarterbacks. They did wind 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.240 up with Jimmy, who they of course traded away, and 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:05.240 of course everybody knows how late they got Brady. But 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.640 you don't get the chance to draft a guy like 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.200 this if you're the Patriots, because unless you're willing to 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:13.680 forego all your draft capital, they probably would have to 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.079 trade up to do it. You know, even with him 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.720 sliding ta teen, they need to trade up. But you 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:20.520 can trade up. They have a lot of picks this here. 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:23.360 You can trade up without giving up that much any 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:25.440 chance there? Or is that something too crazy for you? 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:28.680 It just doesn't seem like something Bill would do. Trading back? 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:32.160 Is this mantra He's He's understood faster than anybody that 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:36.280 the NFL draft is about darts, and as many darts 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.319 as you can throw, the more successful you're going to 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.080 be the king of trading back. And I just don't 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.760 see him packaging equity to move up. I also think, 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:47.120 and too Bill's credit all the success that he's had. 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:50.840 I think he's a bit arrogant as to who could 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:55.240 succeed on his team in this system. They really seem 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:58.560 to peoples that full steam ahead with this Stidham thing, 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:02.080 which any other of the thirty one organizations it would 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:02.960 seem mind blowing. 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.280 But right, could Bill do it? I don't know. 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:07.040 Maybe Matt Castle in eleven and five. 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.240 No, enough with the Matt Castle thing, all right, when 0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.520 you if you give Stidham, Randy Moss and Wes Welker, 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:15.920 we'll talk about it. But right now, especially with what 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:18.000 they have at wide receiver, you know, I always I 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:19.920 always think about that this year is gonna be fascinating 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:21.920 with the Patriots anyway, just to see. But yeah, I 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:24.240 don't know, and the inkling of of sort of maybe 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.000 that could happen or something, because again I don't necessarily 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:29.600 think that it would require that much draft capital to 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:31.880 move up. I'm talking if he slips and if somehow 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.199 he slips past the Jags at nine, maybe they don't 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:34.600 want to do it. 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.920 Maybe they love Minchu Mania, you know. 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:39.000 If he if he does slid it slip into the 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.240 late teens, I feel like it might not take all 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.400 that much to move up. But again I'm trying to 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.360 have some fun. Okay, we've got you know, this the 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:47.920 one thing that we can really bet on. But anyway, 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:49.720 all right, so we've both got our Toua props out 0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:51.600 of the way, which he had to figure we'd both 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:52.200 have at least one. 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:52.920 What's your next one? 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:54.760 We yeah, just real quick, if you think we're both 0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:57.720 way off base, if you think the player evaluation is 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:01.160 so strong that there's no oh shot that these teams 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:03.600 are going to pass up a talent like to despite 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.680 the hip injury and despite some of the confusion as 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.360 to his medical I think the pivot there is to 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.240 a going third at plus five hundred. If these teams 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.560 are still in love with him, that trade is there 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.920 to be made with Detroit. So that's if you think 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.960 we're wrong. Value is probably there to a third overall 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:25.400 plus five hundred, but I'm going to go to another 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.200 player third overall. And this is kind of like when 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.160 you build your Super Bowl props. You think of a 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.920 story as to away the game is going to go, 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:36.720 and then you select your props based upon that to 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.320 try to get full leverage. And if I believe that 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.640 the to A market is cold and that he will 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:45.320 drop and no teams will be trading up for Justin 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:49.120 Herbert because the whole market's cold. There's no reason to 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:53.160 jump up to get Herbert. I'm gonna take Jeff Okuda 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.640 as the third player selected. Plus one twenty five is 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:59.480 the consensus odds. It's plus one fifty on DraftKings. If 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:02.720 you want to do a little price shopping the Detroit Lions. 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:05.080 It just moved, By the way, this is not a joke. 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.680 I looked at this because it's part of one of 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:09.880 my recommendations, which I'll get into in a second. But 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.960 it just moved back to one fifty the consensus line. 0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:13.440 So there you go. 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:15.960 But it was at plus one twenty five an hour ago. 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.600 By the way, that's a really great lesson in terms 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:20.960 of trying to, you know, make sure a lot of 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:23.160 this stuff as more information is coming out. By the way, 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.240 this one maybe not because it's back and forth, but 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.560 a lot of you know, the bets that I'm gonna recommend, 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:33.280 you know, three days ago, you know, the price was 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:35.520 was much better that you could get them now because 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:36.960 of all the intel that's coming out. But this is 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.880 one again that's not I don't think that's necessarily specific. 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:42.080 The difference between one fifty and one twenty five. 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.960 Not a huge deal here in this context, at least 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.400 for for everything that you're hearing. But that is a 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:50.720 good lesson that you should always be shopping for the 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:53.320 best line anyway, Go ahead, Okudah third plus one fifty. 0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.600 Yeah, the lines tore apart their secondary. Traded Quandre Digs 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:59.440 mid season to the Seahawks last year, traded Darius Lays 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:04.120 the Eagles in the off season. Here, from what scouts 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.760 are saying, this Ohio State kid is just a plug 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:10.200 and play starting cornerback in the league. No worries sticking 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:14.720 him in as a starter right away, Patricia defensive guy. 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.200 The fit seems really appropriate for that team. 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:18.720 Uh. 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:21.800 And again this is all based upon nobody trading up 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:24.200 for a quarterback, which if two is sliding, I think 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:27.280 will happen. So yeah, give me Okudah thitter overall plus 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:28.360 one fifty now. 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:31.600 Yes, one fifty, even better than you were recommending. H Yeah, 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.920 I think that that's probably gonna wind up being the pick. 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.760 I think Okuda is gonna probably go to the Lions, 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:41.800 and he's probably gonna be at three. But I will 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:45.000 say that I have another possibility here, and based on 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:48.200 the price, I kind of like it, and that's Derek Brown. 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:51.000 Now I've got I've got two here with Derek Brown. Okay, 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:53.800 I've got him going at three, which is at plus 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:57.640 seven hundred. Although no, all right, so this is that 0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:01.800 refrigitimate legitimately, this is probably what is happening, and this 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:06.480 probably explains why the odds on Okudah are better. Right 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:09.920 before we went on this podcast, right before, I looked 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.200 at the odds to make sure I had the most 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.120 recent odds, and I did, and Derek Brown was at 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:17.920 plus seven hundred to go third overall. 0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:19.240 He's now at. 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.200 Plus five hundred, and I think that that's probably why 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:25.440 the corresponding move is to Okudah. Going from plus one 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:31.040 twenty five to plus one fifty is necessarily although actually 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.680 that might even not make it. But regardless that Brown 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:36.840 is now at plus five hundred to go third overall, 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:40.879 because I think there's some buzz about him potentially going 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:41.480 to the lines. 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.159 I mean, look, they need a cornerback. 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:49.520 As you adequately laid out, but they have also not goodness, 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:51.719 please don't act like this is a comparison, but they 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:54.639 have Desmond Trufon. It's not like they just gave away Sleigh, 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:56.800 so they did add somebody they need help on defense. 0:17:56.840 --> 0:17:59.639 I know sacks last year twenty eight. I believe total 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:01.800 they need somebody who can rush the rush of the passer. 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:04.080 Brown is getting a lot of buzz right now going on. 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:06.600 So I could see, you know, in a in a 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:10.760 relatively deep cornerback draft, I could see the Lions basically saying, 0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:13.880 you know what, we're gonna not even training away themselves, 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:17.600 staying at three and taking Brown. It's at plus five hundred. 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:19.719 I don't love it quite as much with that. I 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:21.359 liked it when it was at plus seven hundred. But 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:23.760 the other Brown one, I'm gonna say, and I'm gonna 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:25.640 need to check to make sure this hasn't moved either, 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:27.160 because this has been moving crazy. 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:29.720 Is under pick eight and a half. 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.680 So it was when I checked at minus one seventy seven. 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:35.840 That's still a pretty steep price, but a couple of 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:37.840 days ago it was at minus one thirty four, so 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.320 you could have gotten it there in our consensus lines. 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:42.600 But for me, I think there's a really good shot 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.119 that the Lions take them at three. Even if they don't, 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:47.920 it's just really hard to see him getting past pick eight. 0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:51.680 You've got Carolina at seven, they obviously need to revamp 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:54.280 their defense. You've got Arizona at eight, and this is 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.480 moving on this number eight and a half pretty big 0:18:57.480 --> 0:18:59.600 going on. So there's a lot of buzz around Brown, 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:01.800 whether be a three, whether it be at seven, whether 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:03.119 it be at eight. The line is at eight and 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:05.920 a half. So for me, I would put some even 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:08.640 at plus five hundred, which is not nearly as good 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:12.159 on Brown going third overall, and I'd also put you know, 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:15.240 a bigger bet. It's minus one seventy seven on Brown 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:17.560