Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adie.
Speaker 1: The NFL Draft is about to be here, thankfully we
Speaker 1: will have something to focus on in this crazy world
Speaker 1: that we're in. With me to break down some of
Speaker 1: our favorite prop bets is my good friend Rich Ryan.
Speaker 1: You can find him over at the grid Iron Gamble
Speaker 1: podcast and on Twitter at rich t Ryan.
Speaker 2: Rich How are you gambling? It's something, right, are you?
Speaker 1: Are you going crazy on Madden simulations or anything like that?
Speaker 3: You know, I picked up NBA two K kind of
Speaker 3: when this whole thing was starting, and I've been grinding
Speaker 3: that a little bit. But no, the simulating, my favorite
Speaker 3: is the folks that are simulating like old games. I'm
Speaker 3: talking like NCAA basketball game, and I guess old is
Speaker 3: a relative terms and sign. I'm in my young thirties,
Speaker 3: but I'm talking like mid two thousands college basketball games
Speaker 3: and just throwing it up. But yeah, you could tell
Speaker 3: last night, recording this on a Monday morning, how thirsty
Speaker 3: everybody was for just even a semblance of sports as
Speaker 3: we all live. Tweeted the Michael Jordan documentary.
Speaker 1: It was pretty amazing though, right, I mean, I don't
Speaker 1: think they oversold it. It had so much hype coming
Speaker 1: into it, but I think it pretty much delivered for
Speaker 1: the first two episodes.
Speaker 3: Oh and behind the scenes, the team that's doing this
Speaker 3: or doing amazing work. This was supposed to be delivered
Speaker 3: in June. Evidently the last five episodes haven't even been
Speaker 3: completed yet in the editing bay. So the time and
Speaker 3: effort that these guys are putting in to cut this
Speaker 3: and something that you know, we're enjoying it now, but
Speaker 3: I mean, this is gonna last, you know, many lifetimes
Speaker 3: beyond this as kind of the the documentary about Michael Jordan.
Speaker 3: For them to be under that time crunch is pretty incredible.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're doing an amazing job. It really did deliver,
Speaker 1: at least the first two episodes. I'm sure the rest
Speaker 1: will be great. I'm excited to show it to my son,
Speaker 1: who is obsessed with Lebron because he is obsessed with
Speaker 1: all great athletes, he's pretty much a front runner. I'm
Speaker 1: excited to show him, you know, teach him about Michael
Speaker 1: Jordan through this with you know, the the edited version
Speaker 1: of it, which doesn't have.
Speaker 2: Version of I mean, he's six, so we have to
Speaker 2: be careful.
Speaker 1: But anyway, all of that was a nice little return
Speaker 1: to sports, shall we say. But now we've got something tangible,
Speaker 1: We've got something real. We've got the NFL Draft.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be weird. Okay, it's gonna be.
Speaker 1: Really really weird with everyone doing it remotely, everyone on
Speaker 1: zoom and calls, and I'm really kind of secretly hoping
Speaker 1: that they're going to be various technical mishaps and stuff
Speaker 1: like that, just because it'll be fun to watch. But
Speaker 1: either way, everyone is going to be watching it, and
Speaker 1: everyone is finally going to have something real to gamble on.
Speaker 1: So that's what we're going to do today. We're going
Speaker 1: to talk about some of our favorite prop bets. We're
Speaker 1: gonna be using the consensus lines as we always do.
Speaker 1: Over at bettingpros dot com. You can get the draft
Speaker 1: props one at Bettingpros dot com slash Draft hyphen props.
Speaker 1: You can see there's a whole range of things, as
Speaker 1: I'm sure Rich will also be doing. You know, you
Speaker 1: can do specific players or teams or whatever you want
Speaker 1: to do. So we're gonna go through just a few
Speaker 1: of our favorite ones here and we'll see what happens
Speaker 1: out of curiosity. Rich you correct me if I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: and please don't take this the wrong way. You've been
Speaker 1: on this podcast several times. You are a Jets van.
Speaker 2: Correct?
Speaker 3: Unfortunately, Yes, as am I. So I mean named after
Speaker 3: the great Richard Todd. A lifetime of misery. Yeah, my
Speaker 3: father is an insane person, somehow convincing my mom to
Speaker 3: name me Richard Todd Ryan. But yes, a lifetime of
Speaker 3: misery thirty two years so far, and a lifetime beyond
Speaker 3: this undoubtedly.
Speaker 1: Well I've got thirty nine, so I'm beating you there.
Speaker 1: But yeah, out of here, do any of your favorite
Speaker 1: props have to do with the Jets.
Speaker 4: I had to come on, I had to Jets.
Speaker 2: Then we'll save it. Then we'll save it. That's fine.
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you whether or not you
Speaker 1: had anything fun if they weren't one of your props,
Speaker 1: but I assumed you were going there.
Speaker 2: So anyway, you can start us off Jets or not.
Speaker 1: But what's your first one that you're looking at here?
Speaker 3: So this part of draft season is very intriguing to
Speaker 3: me because if you take the long view, if you
Speaker 3: look at the predictability of the draft. At the beginning,
Speaker 3: there's two axises, right, there's player evaluation and then they're sourcing.
Speaker 3: And as we progress through this process and get closer
Speaker 3: to the draft, the sourcing element of this, in my opinion,
Speaker 3: becomes more important than the player evaluation because these reporters,
Speaker 3: these beat guys, they do a great job of talking
Speaker 3: to people within organizations. That's why sometimes you see betting
Speaker 3: odds so high. I mean, just look at Burrow and
Speaker 3: Chase at the beginning of the draft, Chase Young. The
Speaker 3: odds are astronomy that they're going to be selected in
Speaker 3: the places they are, and a lot of that has
Speaker 3: to do with the fact that these organizations have tipped
Speaker 3: their hand or they've been transparent to a reporter or
Speaker 3: two throughout this process. And in the last couple of days,
Speaker 3: it seems quite evident that the NFL is quite cold
Speaker 3: on to a Taga Viola. And that's the last time
Speaker 3: I'll attempt his surname on this.
Speaker 1: Just to be clear, I'm very impressed that you did
Speaker 1: it even once, because I just I don't know, two
Speaker 1: months ago. I mean, I can do it because I
Speaker 1: have to be able to do it, but I have
Speaker 1: just completely stopped lest I mess it up. So I've
Speaker 1: just been to it so already. The fact that he
Speaker 1: did it once, I'm impressed.
Speaker 3: And it's it's not the wonderlick, right. That whole story
Speaker 3: is a bit of a clown show. He took it
Speaker 3: in twenty eighteen, got a thirteen. He just retook it.
Speaker 3: He scored a nineteen. The average is a twenty. So
Speaker 3: let's get that crappy narrative out of here.
Speaker 1: Also, by the way, just to be clear, I mean
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. Realize that Lamar Jackson is primarily a runner,
Speaker 1: but he also scored a thirteen. So even if that
Speaker 1: were the case, I thought it was completely overblown personally.
Speaker 1: But yes, it's either way, it's been essentially debunked.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's get that out of here. It's more
Speaker 3: to do with the hip and the medical and during
Speaker 3: these crazy times, how uncertain NFL teams are surrounding him. So,
Speaker 3: based upon the evidence that I'm seeing from reporters and
Speaker 3: sourcing and not the player evaluation, the first prop bet
Speaker 3: that I'm going to offer is Tua as the third
Speaker 3: quarterback drafted at plus one point fifty. I think it's
Speaker 3: quite clear that he is going to quote unquote fall now,
Speaker 3: whether that be to eighteen, which I saw one Detroit
Speaker 3: Free Press writer say yesterday their sources were alluding to.
Speaker 3: I don't know about that, but him falling to even six,
Speaker 3: to that spot to the Chargers would be a precipitous
Speaker 3: fall from where we thought two was going to be
Speaker 3: selected just a few weeks ago. So I'm going to
Speaker 3: lead it off quarterback, the most sexy position, Tua going
Speaker 3: third at plus one hundred.
Speaker 2: So I do like it. I'm buying this.
Speaker 1: You know, everything that's coming out, and again you talked
Speaker 1: about it, that's part of what we're doing. I mean,
Speaker 1: maybe with the Jets, but other than that, will probably
Speaker 1: basically be breaking this down as a lot more sourcing
Speaker 1: as opposed to what we think maybe should happen or
Speaker 1: you know, who we think is the best and stuff
Speaker 1: like that, because that's really irrelevant when you're talking about
Speaker 1: draft props. What we want doesn't matter. But yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: buying this. I don't think eighteen. I did see that
Speaker 1: as well, that that tweet that came out. I'm not
Speaker 1: buying that either, But I think as a third one
Speaker 1: and I'm just gonna point this out and believe me,
Speaker 1: this is in no way faulting you whatsoever, because this
Speaker 1: has happened to me six times today to talk.
Speaker 2: About where we are, which is why.
Speaker 1: You really need to move as soon as you get
Speaker 1: an inkling on what you want to do. The consensus
Speaker 1: odds right now have dropped to even on to A
Speaker 1: being the third quarterback, and you had it at plus
Speaker 1: one fifty. I believe it's now even. I still see.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the various books. You can get it
Speaker 1: at plus one fifteen at william Hill, plus one ten
Speaker 1: at points Bet. But for the most part it's down
Speaker 1: to even because that's probably what's going to happen at
Speaker 1: this point.
Speaker 2: So I like it.
Speaker 1: So I have a tuo prop as well. I'm going
Speaker 1: to throw it in here to get on with you.
Speaker 1: I agree that'd be one that I would go at
Speaker 1: for me if I'm going to get a little I
Speaker 1: don't know. Let's call it sexier to the extent you
Speaker 1: can invoke sexier when you're talking about the Jaguars. I'm
Speaker 1: going to go to to the Jaguars, which currently is
Speaker 1: at plus five hundred. It was at you right. You
Speaker 1: can get it higher at various places. You can get
Speaker 1: at plus seven hundred at a variety spots. But I'm
Speaker 1: buying the talk of him sliding for sure. I think
Speaker 1: that that's true. And you know, I'm just not sure
Speaker 1: at this point that you really want to risk if
Speaker 1: you're the Dolphins, if you're the Chargers, if you really
Speaker 1: want to risk that spot. I mean, there are a
Speaker 1: lot of quarterbacks this draft. You know, they're varying levels
Speaker 1: of confidence in how good their careers are going to be.
Speaker 1: But if you're gonna take him at five, take him
Speaker 1: at six, you've got to be really confident that this
Speaker 1: guy is going to be able to succeed in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And with all the stuff that's.
Speaker 1: Going on, especially in his short term but all the
Speaker 1: reports going on about his health, I think he is
Speaker 1: gonna slide. And so that's why I do like your bet.
Speaker 1: But where is he going to slide to? To me, man,
Speaker 1: it is just hard to see him getting past the
Speaker 1: Jags at nine if he does, because the Jaguars are
Speaker 1: not competing this year. If ever, there was essentially an
Speaker 1: outright tank that's basically what they're doing. And I know
Speaker 1: they have minshoes, So he's certainly the quote unquote answer
Speaker 1: in the short term, but it's a splash. Man con
Speaker 1: likes to make the splash. It's long term.
Speaker 2: He can look that way.
Speaker 1: It would you know, whether you know, bring fans, which
Speaker 1: may not be happening this year, but it would garner
Speaker 1: more interest in the team. So to me, at nine
Speaker 1: with the jagsonding there, that's just where I think who
Speaker 1: is gonna wind up going If he does fall now,
Speaker 1: I don't know, he still could go six to the Chargers.
Speaker 1: The Chargers could trade up to get Herbert, and he
Speaker 1: could go five to the Dolphins. You know, who knows
Speaker 1: at this point. But for me, you know, if you're
Speaker 1: getting you know, plus five hundred, it wasn't as great.
Speaker 1: I got it when it was plus seven hundred, and
Speaker 1: you can still get that at some places. But at
Speaker 1: plus five hundred to the Jags, that's still one and
Speaker 1: I'm willing to, you know, dip my toes in the
Speaker 1: water a little bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Evan Silva, the famed Evan Silva, who I believe had
Speaker 3: the third most accurate mock draft last year according to
Speaker 3: you guys at Fantasy Pros, has this to a going
Speaker 3: to the Jags at nine and logically, it makes sense
Speaker 3: if you were to slip past that five and six
Speaker 3: spot the Dolphins and Chargers respectively. Look the Panthers, It's
Speaker 3: not like Teddy Bridgewater is the best, but they gave.
Speaker 4: Him a ton of money.
Speaker 3: I don't think the Cardinals are going to Josh Rosen
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray. I think we can sidestep back. And then
Speaker 3: you look at the Jags and it doesn't seem like
Speaker 3: there's a consensus even between the sourced members of the
Speaker 3: community as to what they're gonna do with that ninth pick.
Speaker 3: And you mentioned Sead his son is a very analytical guy.
Speaker 3: Runs Fulham Football club over in England as well. Loves
Speaker 3: things like DVOA and football outsiders, which you might not
Speaker 3: think of when you think of the Jags, and now
Speaker 3: they've performed as of late, but a very analytical team
Speaker 3: running that football division. And it wouldn't shock me to
Speaker 3: see them quote unquote punt on this year to rehab
Speaker 3: somebody as talented as Tua Can.
Speaker 1: I throw another real curveball out at you and just
Speaker 1: want to know what you think of this. Is there
Speaker 1: any chance am I just being crazy? What about for
Speaker 1: Tua in this specific team? What about the Pats at
Speaker 1: plus two thousand. I mean, look, they are, you know,
Speaker 1: apparently going with Stidham, but they don't get the chance
Speaker 1: to draft one of these great quarterbacks. They did wind
Speaker 1: up with Jimmy, who they of course traded away, and
Speaker 1: of course everybody knows how late they got Brady. But
Speaker 1: you don't get the chance to draft a guy like
Speaker 1: this if you're the Patriots, because unless you're willing to
Speaker 1: forego all your draft capital, they probably would have to
Speaker 1: trade up to do it. You know, even with him
Speaker 1: sliding ta teen, they need to trade up. But you
Speaker 1: can trade up. They have a lot of picks this here.
Speaker 1: You can trade up without giving up that much any
Speaker 1: chance there? Or is that something too crazy for you?
Speaker 4: It just doesn't seem like something Bill would do. Trading back?
Speaker 3: Is this mantra He's He's understood faster than anybody that
Speaker 3: the NFL draft is about darts, and as many darts
Speaker 3: as you can throw, the more successful you're going to
Speaker 3: be the king of trading back. And I just don't
Speaker 3: see him packaging equity to move up. I also think,
Speaker 3: and too Bill's credit all the success that he's had.
Speaker 3: I think he's a bit arrogant as to who could
Speaker 3: succeed on his team in this system. They really seem
Speaker 3: to peoples that full steam ahead with this Stidham thing,
Speaker 3: which any other of the thirty one organizations it would
Speaker 3: seem mind blowing.
Speaker 4: But right, could Bill do it? I don't know.
Speaker 3: Maybe Matt Castle in eleven and five.
Speaker 1: No, enough with the Matt Castle thing, all right, when
Speaker 1: you if you give Stidham, Randy Moss and Wes Welker,
Speaker 1: we'll talk about it. But right now, especially with what
Speaker 1: they have at wide receiver, you know, I always I
Speaker 1: always think about that this year is gonna be fascinating
Speaker 1: with the Patriots anyway, just to see. But yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't know, and the inkling of of sort of maybe
Speaker 1: that could happen or something, because again I don't necessarily
Speaker 1: think that it would require that much draft capital to
Speaker 1: move up. I'm talking if he slips and if somehow
Speaker 1: he slips past the Jags at nine, maybe they don't
Speaker 1: want to do it.
Speaker 2: Maybe they love Minchu Mania, you know.
Speaker 1: If he if he does slid it slip into the
Speaker 1: late teens, I feel like it might not take all
Speaker 1: that much to move up. But again I'm trying to
Speaker 1: have some fun. Okay, we've got you know, this the
Speaker 1: one thing that we can really bet on. But anyway,
Speaker 1: all right, so we've both got our Toua props out
Speaker 1: of the way, which he had to figure we'd both
Speaker 1: have at least one.
Speaker 2: What's your next one?
Speaker 3: We yeah, just real quick, if you think we're both
Speaker 3: way off base, if you think the player evaluation is
Speaker 3: so strong that there's no oh shot that these teams
Speaker 3: are going to pass up a talent like to despite
Speaker 3: the hip injury and despite some of the confusion as
Speaker 3: to his medical I think the pivot there is to
Speaker 3: a going third at plus five hundred. If these teams
Speaker 3: are still in love with him, that trade is there
Speaker 3: to be made with Detroit. So that's if you think
Speaker 3: we're wrong. Value is probably there to a third overall
Speaker 3: plus five hundred, but I'm going to go to another
Speaker 3: player third overall. And this is kind of like when
Speaker 3: you build your Super Bowl props. You think of a
Speaker 3: story as to away the game is going to go,
Speaker 3: and then you select your props based upon that to
Speaker 3: try to get full leverage. And if I believe that
Speaker 3: the to A market is cold and that he will
Speaker 3: drop and no teams will be trading up for Justin
Speaker 3: Herbert because the whole market's cold. There's no reason to
Speaker 3: jump up to get Herbert. I'm gonna take Jeff Okuda
Speaker 3: as the third player selected. Plus one twenty five is
Speaker 3: the consensus odds. It's plus one fifty on DraftKings. If
Speaker 3: you want to do a little price shopping the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 2: It just moved, By the way, this is not a joke.
Speaker 1: I looked at this because it's part of one of
Speaker 1: my recommendations, which I'll get into in a second. But
Speaker 1: it just moved back to one fifty the consensus line.
Speaker 2: So there you go.
Speaker 1: But it was at plus one twenty five an hour ago.
Speaker 1: By the way, that's a really great lesson in terms
Speaker 1: of trying to, you know, make sure a lot of
Speaker 1: this stuff as more information is coming out. By the way,
Speaker 1: this one maybe not because it's back and forth, but
Speaker 1: a lot of you know, the bets that I'm gonna recommend,
Speaker 1: you know, three days ago, you know, the price was
Speaker 1: was much better that you could get them now because
Speaker 1: of all the intel that's coming out. But this is
Speaker 1: one again that's not I don't think that's necessarily specific.
Speaker 2: The difference between one fifty and one twenty five.
Speaker 1: Not a huge deal here in this context, at least
Speaker 1: for for everything that you're hearing. But that is a
Speaker 1: good lesson that you should always be shopping for the
Speaker 1: best line anyway, Go ahead, Okudah third plus one fifty.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the lines tore apart their secondary. Traded Quandre Digs
Speaker 3: mid season to the Seahawks last year, traded Darius Lays
Speaker 3: the Eagles in the off season. Here, from what scouts
Speaker 3: are saying, this Ohio State kid is just a plug
Speaker 3: and play starting cornerback in the league. No worries sticking
Speaker 3: him in as a starter right away, Patricia defensive guy.
Speaker 3: The fit seems really appropriate for that team.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: And again this is all based upon nobody trading up
Speaker 3: for a quarterback, which if two is sliding, I think
Speaker 3: will happen. So yeah, give me Okudah thitter overall plus
Speaker 3: one fifty now.
Speaker 1: Yes, one fifty, even better than you were recommending. H Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think that that's probably gonna wind up being the pick.
Speaker 1: I think Okuda is gonna probably go to the Lions,
Speaker 1: and he's probably gonna be at three. But I will
Speaker 1: say that I have another possibility here, and based on
Speaker 1: the price, I kind of like it, and that's Derek Brown.
Speaker 1: Now I've got I've got two here with Derek Brown. Okay,
Speaker 1: I've got him going at three, which is at plus
Speaker 1: seven hundred. Although no, all right, so this is that
Speaker 1: refrigitimate legitimately, this is probably what is happening, and this
Speaker 1: probably explains why the odds on Okudah are better. Right
Speaker 1: before we went on this podcast, right before, I looked
Speaker 1: at the odds to make sure I had the most
Speaker 1: recent odds, and I did, and Derek Brown was at
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred to go third overall.
Speaker 2: He's now at.
Speaker 1: Plus five hundred, and I think that that's probably why
Speaker 1: the corresponding move is to Okudah. Going from plus one
Speaker 1: twenty five to plus one fifty is necessarily although actually
Speaker 1: that might even not make it. But regardless that Brown
Speaker 1: is now at plus five hundred to go third overall,
Speaker 1: because I think there's some buzz about him potentially going
Speaker 1: to the lines.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, they need a cornerback.
Speaker 1: As you adequately laid out, but they have also not goodness,
Speaker 1: please don't act like this is a comparison, but they
Speaker 1: have Desmond Trufon. It's not like they just gave away Sleigh,
Speaker 1: so they did add somebody they need help on defense.
Speaker 1: I know sacks last year twenty eight. I believe total
Speaker 1: they need somebody who can rush the rush of the passer.
Speaker 1: Brown is getting a lot of buzz right now going on.
Speaker 1: So I could see, you know, in a in a
Speaker 1: relatively deep cornerback draft, I could see the Lions basically saying,
Speaker 1: you know what, we're gonna not even training away themselves,
Speaker 1: staying at three and taking Brown. It's at plus five hundred.
Speaker 1: I don't love it quite as much with that. I
Speaker 1: liked it when it was at plus seven hundred. But
Speaker 1: the other Brown one, I'm gonna say, and I'm gonna
Speaker 1: need to check to make sure this hasn't moved either,
Speaker 1: because this has been moving crazy.
Speaker 2: Is under pick eight and a half.
Speaker 1: So it was when I checked at minus one seventy seven.
Speaker 1: That's still a pretty steep price, but a couple of
Speaker 1: days ago it was at minus one thirty four, so
Speaker 1: you could have gotten it there in our consensus lines.
Speaker 1: But for me, I think there's a really good shot
Speaker 1: that the Lions take them at three. Even if they don't,
Speaker 1: it's just really hard to see him getting past pick eight.
Speaker 1: You've got Carolina at seven, they obviously need to revamp
Speaker 1: their defense. You've got Arizona at eight, and this is
Speaker 1: moving on this number eight and a half pretty big
Speaker 1: going on. So there's a lot of buzz around Brown,
Speaker 1: whether be a three, whether it be at seven, whether
Speaker 1: it be at eight. The line is at eight and
Speaker 1: a half. So for me, I would put some even
Speaker 1: at plus five hundred, which is not nearly as good
Speaker 1: on Brown going third overall, and I'd also put you know,
Speaker 1: a bigger bet. It's minus one seventy seven on Brown
Speaker 1: going before pick eight and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the price isn't as great, but the move should
Speaker 3: instill some confidence, right, The late move is always the
Speaker 3: right move.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Hold on.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna check as we talk right now, just to
Speaker 1: make sure because if this moved even more, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be really upset. No, Okay, it's still minus one seventy seven,
Speaker 1: but the over has moved to plus one forty five,
Speaker 1: which is a bigger move as well. So yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's a reason that the juice moves the way it is,
Speaker 1: and it's because of the same intel that Rich and
Speaker 1: I are talking about. So anyway, so that's for me,
Speaker 1: I could see Brown going at three. I kind of
Speaker 1: liking that right now. Though again, at plus five hundred,
Speaker 1: that's not good enough at this point unless something major
Speaker 1: leaks out. But certainly under eight and a half is
Speaker 1: something I feel confident. All right, what do you got next?
Speaker 2: All right? Well?
Speaker 4: He finished.
Speaker 3: I reference this earlier the Fantasy Pro's mock draft rankings.
Speaker 3: He finished in the fifties.
Speaker 4: A lot of people.
Speaker 3: Don't like him. He's got a good impersonation. But mel
Speaker 3: Kiper knows things about the New York Football Giants. He
Speaker 3: had Daniel Jones going to them last year. Everybody thought
Speaker 3: he was crazy. And once again, the Giants are selecting high.
Speaker 3: Once again, Dave Gettlman refuses to trade backwards because that's
Speaker 3: something that he will seemingly never do.
Speaker 1: He's got the binder, though, Man, he's got that giant
Speaker 1: binder on his desk. Why trade back you have all
Speaker 1: the information you need.
Speaker 3: And once again, mel Kiper's going off the board with
Speaker 3: the Giants pick. Everybody thinks, and this is probably correct,
Speaker 3: they should go offensive lineman. Ye, he's got Isaiah Simmons,
Speaker 3: the versatile linebacker from Clemson, do it all guy. He
Speaker 3: could even sneak back and play box safety. And right
Speaker 3: now that price is plus three to fifty and as
Speaker 3: we noted, while I was doing research this morning, it
Speaker 3: was plus four hundred, So the market is moving in
Speaker 3: the other direction. Why would the Giants not select an
Speaker 3: offensive lineman when they have so much equity in Barkley
Speaker 3: and Daniel Jones. I don't know, but mel Kiper seems
Speaker 3: to have the finger on the pulse of Dave Gettlelman.
Speaker 3: So give me Isaiah Simmons first Giants player selected.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, that just blows a hole in my
Speaker 1: next one, but you know whatever, that's fine, all right.
Speaker 1: So Kuiper has come out with it, and okay, he's
Speaker 1: got his finger on.
Speaker 2: The pulse if you want to say that.
Speaker 1: Look I had You know, it doesn't have to be
Speaker 1: the Giants, but I was thinking it would be the Giants.
Speaker 1: It doesn't necessarily blow it up. But I was going
Speaker 1: to have the first offensive lineman drafted as Jedrick Wills
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty. And to me, you know, you've
Speaker 1: got the four big offensive linemen right now, right, You've
Speaker 1: got Wills, You've got Werfs, you've got Thomas, you've got
Speaker 1: Becken Beckden probably is going to be the last of
Speaker 1: the group, you assume now with his off the field issues,
Speaker 1: you really got the big three.
Speaker 2: You can go any which way with it.
Speaker 1: I mean, Wurfs's is plus one pint eighty right now,
Speaker 1: Thomas's plus four hundred. Unless I've missed something again in
Speaker 1: the last ten minutes. That's sort of changing these odds.
Speaker 1: I thought he was going to go to the Giants. Now, look,
Speaker 1: mel Kuipers, there are a million mock drafts, and yeah,
Speaker 1: he wasn't that accurate last year or anything like that.
Speaker 1: That's not going to change us early the way I feel.
Speaker 1: But the odds are moving. If the juice is moving,
Speaker 1: that that could indicate something. But to me, look, it
Speaker 1: strikes me as him as Will's going to the Giants.
Speaker 2: They've got the whole Alabama, you know.
Speaker 1: Patriots jojud sort of connection which has always seemed to work.
Speaker 1: You draft a franchise quarterback, you really need to protect them.
Speaker 1: To be fair, Simmons would do a lot for their team.
Speaker 1: They need help pretty much everywhere, but you really need
Speaker 1: help on the offensive line, and to me, Will's is
Speaker 1: really the guy, and the odds again with the intel,
Speaker 1: have been moving towards Wills lately. They really they've they've
Speaker 1: just got to do something in the end, even if
Speaker 1: they don't, even if they don't. Okay, so we're talking
Speaker 1: not saying he's gonna go number four, not saying he's
Speaker 1: necessarily going to go to the Giants, just that he's
Speaker 1: the first guy drafted. If the Giants do go to Simmons,
Speaker 1: the next one up would probably be.
Speaker 2: My guess is Arizona.
Speaker 1: They'd probably be looking at something they really need to
Speaker 1: shore up their right tackle. Right they've got Humphreys on
Speaker 1: the left. He could slide right in there. He wouldn't
Speaker 1: need to learn a new position or anything like that.
Speaker 1: He knows exactly how to play it. So for me,
Speaker 1: I think he's going to be the first guy off
Speaker 1: the board. I'm still sticking with my prediction that it's
Speaker 1: going to be on the Giants. But even if not,
Speaker 1: I still think that he's going to go before Wurf's
Speaker 1: and Thomas, who I think will probably go two and three.
Speaker 3: Look, everything you're saying makes a lot of sense. You know,
Speaker 3: if I was in that position, I would either be
Speaker 3: trading back or securing that offensive line as well. When
Speaker 3: I've got Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.
Speaker 1: But you're not tave Gettleman, Gettleman. No, I get it,
Speaker 1: I get it, you know, and again you don't. You
Speaker 1: don't need the Giants to take them to be right
Speaker 1: on this pick. Right, I mean, I'm assuming that they're
Speaker 1: gonna but even if not, I think Wills is a
Speaker 1: guy who look, they're all really really good. Okay, the
Speaker 1: big four, they're all really good. Any one of them
Speaker 1: can step right into the NFL and play probably an
Speaker 1: elite level. But to me, I think Wills is you know,
Speaker 1: whether you know Worf's may be a little more polished,
Speaker 1: but especially you know, he can he can step right
Speaker 1: in at right tackle and be ready to go from
Speaker 1: day one. So it's hard to see him getting past
Speaker 1: to me Arizona if he goes there, And I don't
Speaker 1: think somebody's gonna be selected before that. So I'm still
Speaker 1: good with Will's first offensive linemen selected at minus one twenty.
Speaker 3: Let's keep it on the offensive lineman trained, okay, and
Speaker 3: I will take the over on six and a half's
Speaker 3: offensive linemen selected in the first round. This is the
Speaker 3: first bet that I'm offering where you're paying a little
Speaker 3: bit of juice minus one p fifty five is the
Speaker 3: consensus odds. But you brought up the first and most
Speaker 3: important part of this to me is that not only
Speaker 3: are those top four worfs Willis, Becton Thomas probably going
Speaker 3: to in the first round, They're probably gonna go in
Speaker 3: the first half of the first round. So then we
Speaker 3: only need to sneak through three more guys in the
Speaker 3: last sixteen picks. And there's a handful of offensive lineman
Speaker 3: where you have to pay juice on DraftKings to bet
Speaker 3: that they will be drafted in the first round. The
Speaker 3: highest amounts of juice you're paying are minus five hundred
Speaker 3: for Austin Jackson and minus three thirty five for Josh Jones.
Speaker 3: And then you have Caesar Ruiz, Ezra Cleveland and Isaiah
Speaker 3: Wilson that you have to pay juice for, as well
Speaker 3: a lot of offensive line needy teams in the middle
Speaker 3: late selections of the first round, Dolphins, Vikings, Seahawks, and
Speaker 3: I would even lump in the Titans and Ravens in there. Yeah,
Speaker 3: who lost to Conklin to the Browns for the Titans
Speaker 3: and then yonda to retirement for the Ravens. So offensive
Speaker 3: line is so important even good teams. It always helps you.
Speaker 3: Look at the Eagles last year, if they went strength
Speaker 3: on strength by selecting a leftie even though they already
Speaker 3: had Jason Peters at the position. I think you can't
Speaker 3: go wrong by selecting some of these guys. And yeah,
Speaker 3: I like the over round six and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't disagree with it. And I think you
Speaker 1: bring up a really good point, which has again the
Speaker 1: big four. Yeah, they're all going to be gone in
Speaker 1: the first half of the draft, so you really only
Speaker 1: need three more. Everybody needs offensive lineman. It's a good
Speaker 1: draft for it. It's a deep draft, so I like it,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna be willing to pay so much more
Speaker 1: on this next one that I'm gonna go to. And again,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you a little bit of an offshoot
Speaker 1: for it, and that's under four and a half quarterbacks
Speaker 1: in the first round. Now you know the big three,
Speaker 1: we've talked about them already. You assume Jordan Love is
Speaker 1: probably gonna go in the first round, So then you've
Speaker 1: got Easen You've got from I like Hurts personally, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think he's got a lot of upside, but they're
Speaker 1: not going to go in the first round. Now, look,
Speaker 1: everybody knows that, which is why the odds are astronomical.
Speaker 1: It's minus five sixty for the under, so let's talk
Speaker 1: about it. You're winning eighteen dollars essentially on one hundred
Speaker 1: dollars bet, so that's not really something that's gonna wow anything.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's as safe as they come. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw out another one because of that, and
Speaker 1: that's Jordan Love over pick nineteen and a half.
Speaker 2: That's at minus one seventy seven, So that's still just
Speaker 2: pretty good.
Speaker 1: I don't love Jordan Love, to put it frankly, and
Speaker 1: I again, I know this is much more about the
Speaker 1: intel that you know we're getting from teams, and there
Speaker 1: seems to be a little bit mixed here with Love.
Speaker 1: But for me, it just I cannot see him going
Speaker 1: that early. There's really one possibility absent somebody training up
Speaker 1: for him, which I really don't think, and that's the Raiders,
Speaker 1: who would be at nineteen. And I just don't think
Speaker 1: that that's what the Raiders are gonna do right now.
Speaker 1: I know they're not in love with car. They do
Speaker 1: have Mariota, but they're a competitive team right now. I
Speaker 1: think they're over under a seven and a half. You
Speaker 1: can obviously see them beating that pretty easily if things
Speaker 1: go right.
Speaker 2: They've got two.
Speaker 1: Picks, you know, in the time, so they can add
Speaker 1: two real playmakers to help them this year. So I
Speaker 1: really don't think that that's gonna happen. So after that,
Speaker 1: you know, you've got the Jags at twenty if if
Speaker 1: you know, they don't go with Tua and nine. In
Speaker 1: my one of my earlier selections, you've maybe the Patriots
Speaker 1: is twenty three, but either way, all that's going to
Speaker 1: be past pick twenty.
Speaker 2: So it's really for me.
Speaker 1: I can't see a team training up to get Jordan Love,
Speaker 1: so it's really for me whether or not the Raiders
Speaker 1: are going to take them in nineteen, and I just
Speaker 1: I feel pretty confident given you know, the Raiders were,
Speaker 1: you know, somehow in playoff contention all last year. They're
Speaker 1: gonna and that was with Antonio Brown dropping out right
Speaker 1: before the season started. So right now they get a
Speaker 1: little more time to prep. Of course, they've already got
Speaker 1: Mariota as their backup or you know, whatever you want
Speaker 1: to call it.
Speaker 2: QUB competition. You've got two top twenty picks.
Speaker 1: I think it's something where they're going to be able
Speaker 1: to possibly make some Nois this year, and I think
Speaker 1: that's where they're going to be focused on rather than
Speaker 1: their quarterback.
Speaker 2: Of the future.
Speaker 1: So for me, give me over nineteen and a half
Speaker 1: Jordan Love and that is minus one seventy seven.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like both of these. I mean, in what
Speaker 3: world are hurts or Easan going in the first round
Speaker 3: just doesn't seem likely whatsoever. And but that juice is
Speaker 3: it's grossy, it's crazy.
Speaker 1: I mean, you're not you You're risking one hundred dollars
Speaker 1: to win eighteen. That's crazy. And again that's been getting worse.
Speaker 1: But I mean that it's a crazy bet. But still,
Speaker 1: you know, it is something that it's pretty much as
Speaker 1: much of a lock as you could have coming into this.
Speaker 3: And with regards to Jordan Love, look, he's a project.
Speaker 3: You know, he's he's got tools, but he misses layups.
Speaker 3: And you cannot be a starting quarterback in the NFL
Speaker 3: if you miss your layups. And which one of these
Speaker 3: teams is positioned to take a project? We're in a
Speaker 3: really weird space right now in the NFL. I think
Speaker 3: the first time in my lifetime where the supply of
Speaker 3: quarterbacks is outpacing the demand from these teams. Guys Jameis
Speaker 3: Winston and Cam Newton don't have a job. Andy Dalton
Speaker 3: is a lane duck quarterback who the Bengals are having
Speaker 3: trouble giving away. So if you're going to take a
Speaker 3: project like Jordan Love, you don't have to spend first
Speaker 3: round equity on it. And I think these teams are
Speaker 3: going to realize that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's the thing.
Speaker 1: If you're gonna go below nineteen and a half, I mean,
Speaker 1: none of the teams who are picking at that spot
Speaker 1: need a quarterback, you know, even if you go you know,
Speaker 1: you got you know, the Browns.
Speaker 2: The Jets, You've got the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Of course, as we just said, the forty nine Ers,
Speaker 1: the Bucks, the Broncos, the Falcons, none of them is
Speaker 1: in the market at this point for a quarterback.
Speaker 2: So I don't.
Speaker 1: See any way that he's going to go, you know,
Speaker 1: under twenty. So again, it's minus one seventy seven. It's
Speaker 1: not like you're getting a particularly good price on it.
Speaker 1: But I again, I feel pretty confident that that's how
Speaker 1: it's gonna it's gonna shake out. All right, what do
Speaker 1: you got for your next one?
Speaker 4: All right, let's go j Ets.
Speaker 2: Okay, I've been waiting for it.
Speaker 3: Their first pick is going to be an offensive lineman.
Speaker 3: I've been going back and forth as a fan. Would
Speaker 3: I love to see Jerry Judy Ceee Lamb in a
Speaker 3: Jets Jersey?
Speaker 4: Absolutely? I would.
Speaker 3: We need to get Sam Darnold some weapons. But everybody's
Speaker 3: been banging the drum for months that this is the
Speaker 3: deepest wide receiver draft they've ever seen, So we can
Speaker 3: probably and I say the Royal wee, we can probably
Speaker 3: address the position later in the draft, even in the
Speaker 3: second round, with guys like Denzel Mims, Chase Claypool. I mean,
Speaker 3: this wide receiver class is fantastic. Joe Douglas, former offensive
Speaker 3: lineman GM understands the need to solidify the position. Connor McGovern,
Speaker 3: Greg Van Rotten, they're nice, but they're both interior linemen.
Speaker 3: Greg fant He's not the answer at left tackle. So
Speaker 3: I like the Jets first pick offensive lineman plus one hundred,
Speaker 3: and I'll add to that that I like them getting
Speaker 3: Andrew Thomas. I like the price at plus six hundred.
Speaker 3: My only worry is what you brought up about the
Speaker 3: off field issue for Beck, maybe Thomas going a little
Speaker 3: abecton and Thomas going a little higher than people were
Speaker 3: thinking right now. But I mean, the fit's perfect right
Speaker 3: tackle early at Georgia had to flip when Isaiah Winn
Speaker 3: was drafted. Two great seasons at left tackle. And people
Speaker 3: that play mad and think that you can just switch
Speaker 3: tackle position that easily, but it's literally like going from
Speaker 3: left handed to right handed. Your entire brain has to swap.
Speaker 3: So versatile player, excellent player, and frankly, i'd love for
Speaker 3: him to land with the Jets.
Speaker 1: Do you think there's any chance about Worf's landing there
Speaker 1: or what?
Speaker 3: Certainly, but I just Worf's wills. They all seem to
Speaker 3: be a little interchangeable, with Worf's being the preferred choice
Speaker 3: of the three. It probably comes down to Worf's and
Speaker 3: Thomas at this spot. But basically I'm just taking the
Speaker 3: highest odds here. With Thomas getting plus six.
Speaker 2: On the spot, well, Worfs is plus seven hundred.
Speaker 1: I mean, put a little on both, just hedge a
Speaker 1: little bit, just to make sure you're gonna get one
Speaker 1: or the other.
Speaker 3: Oh, that's actually an excellent hedge. Yeah, yeah, because it
Speaker 3: seems you brought up the Willis pick earlier, and Willis
Speaker 3: is steaming towards certainly being the first offensive lineman. Take
Speaker 3: him and with the Beckton news, with him potentially dropping
Speaker 3: yeah at plus seven hundred. Yeah, that's a that's a
Speaker 3: that's a really good strategy to sprinkle a little bit
Speaker 3: on both and hope that one of them lands with
Speaker 3: the Jets.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think if the Jets are gonna
Speaker 1: I think they are going to go offensive lineman.
Speaker 2: I agree at this point.
Speaker 1: I mean, it would be exciting to get one of
Speaker 1: the wide receivers, but you mentioned it is a really,
Speaker 1: really really deep class for wide receivers, so I think
Speaker 1: going offensive lineman again.
Speaker 2: You know, as you know, we'll see if Dave Gettleman understands.
Speaker 2: But you know, you need to protect your your franchise quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: So I do like that. So I'm gonna go.
Speaker 1: You know, man, I hate to do this because it's
Speaker 1: not gonna be around one play. Everybody's gonna have to
Speaker 1: hang on till the second day, but that's going to
Speaker 1: be the first tight end drafted. Now, the consensus pick
Speaker 1: here is Comet, right, He's at minus two hundred for
Speaker 1: it and is over underpick is about I think it's
Speaker 1: forty four and a half.
Speaker 2: So I mean that's fine.
Speaker 1: But you know, once you get past the first round,
Speaker 1: it's just craziness. I don't think anybody can really predict
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen. I mean, nobody can predict the first round,
Speaker 1: but once you get past the first round, it's really
Speaker 1: kind of a free for all.
Speaker 2: Comet's great, he's got a good future.
Speaker 1: He's young. I mean he's twenty one. He's not a
Speaker 1: great blocker, and he probably is. And you know, the
Speaker 1: odds are that he's going to be the number one,
Speaker 1: But for me, I kind of like the odds a
Speaker 1: little bit better. With Alberto going, I can try to
Speaker 1: pronounce his last name Okuwei Bunham. I think everybody, you know,
Speaker 1: even even the broadcasters, call him Albert. Oh, so I'm gonna, like,
Speaker 1: like Tua, I'm sticking with Alberto, just so I don't
Speaker 1: have to mangle the name every time. So for Alberto
Speaker 1: to be the first Titan draft, and that's plus eight hundred,
Speaker 1: you can get that higher at a bunch of different books.
Speaker 1: That's just the constant side of plus eight hundred. He's
Speaker 1: a complete frequent nature right six five two fifty eight.
Speaker 1: He ran a four forty nine forty at the combine
Speaker 1: where he really kind of upped his stock. And again,
Speaker 1: you know, he's been plagued by these shoulder injuries while
Speaker 1: at Missouri and especially last year, which kind of dinged
Speaker 1: the stock. But you know, once you're past that first round,
Speaker 1: no rookie tight ends really make that much of an
Speaker 1: impact almost never, you know, occasionally Evan Ingram, of course,
Speaker 1: but for the most part they don't. And I think
Speaker 1: if you're looking for the biggest upside, just you know,
Speaker 1: he's so incredibly athletic that when you get there, he's
Speaker 1: the type of guy who I think teams are going
Speaker 1: to be looking for a little potentially more than comet. Again,
Speaker 1: the odds are comet. If you were saying the odds
Speaker 1: on on both words the same, of course, i'd lean commet.
Speaker 1: But a plus eight hundred, and again that was a
Speaker 1: little higher, you know, a few days ago, so I
Speaker 1: think there might be a little buzz. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with Albert oh As the first tight end taken at
Speaker 1: plus eight hundred.
Speaker 3: Yeah, not a lot of love for this tight end
Speaker 3: class in general. You talked about that under four and
Speaker 3: a half quarterback number, big juice on that zero tight
Speaker 3: ends will be taken in the first round. I should
Speaker 3: say under zero point five to be specific, minus eight thirty.
Speaker 3: So another one that if you can stomach it, right,
Speaker 3: if you're trying to cash in on something that seems
Speaker 3: pretty clear.
Speaker 4: I haven't seen it tight mocked in like the top
Speaker 4: forty even.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean comet is the is the lowest,
Speaker 1: and he's forty four and a half, and you know,
Speaker 1: I'd probably take the over on that, you know, But
Speaker 1: either way, there's no first round tight ends. It's almost
Speaker 1: a guarantee if there you know, if there is, I'm
Speaker 1: just gonna throw my hands up. But for the most part,
Speaker 1: that's one of the safest bets that you can make.
Speaker 2: All Right, what do you got next to?
Speaker 4: All Right?
Speaker 3: So I mentioned it briefly in my Jets soliloquy that
Speaker 3: this is one of the deepest wide receiver class or
Speaker 3: so that's what we've been told, and I think we're
Speaker 3: going to see that even depress the values of the
Speaker 3: higher end receivers. Couple that with some of the love
Speaker 3: that Ruggs has been getting as of late for his
Speaker 3: speed and athleticism, and I think that there's a chance
Speaker 3: that Ceedee Lamb goes a little later than expected. I
Speaker 3: think he's a dynamic player, I mean, just unbelievably athletic
Speaker 3: for his size, his ability to go up and get
Speaker 3: the ball.
Speaker 4: But I just with.
Speaker 3: These teams knowing that there's going to be value in
Speaker 3: the back end of the draft, I can see them
Speaker 3: talking themselves into addressing other areas instead of selecting receivers.
Speaker 3: So I'll take the over on twelve and a half
Speaker 3: at plus one point fifteen. Landing spots that look pretty
Speaker 3: good for him are the Broncos. I mean, if the
Speaker 3: Niners go Galaxy Brain at thirteen, that would be pretty fantastic.
Speaker 3: And really the only team that worries me, if I'm
Speaker 3: going to be honest, is the Raiders at twelve. So
Speaker 3: this feels like a coin flip to me. But at
Speaker 3: plus one fifteen, I'm getting a bit of a weight
Speaker 3: at edge, So I'll take the weight at edge and
Speaker 3: hope that Ceedee Lamb goes past the Raiders at twelve.
Speaker 2: So I know what that you're thinking.
Speaker 1: The Jets are going to go offensive line, but obviously
Speaker 1: there's another position that the Jets have been rumored to
Speaker 1: be in and that is wide receiver.
Speaker 2: I mean, is that?
Speaker 1: Are you firmly convinced that the Jets are going offensive
Speaker 1: line here? You don't think there's any way they go
Speaker 1: wide receiver? And if they do, do you think it's
Speaker 1: going to be another one other than Lamb or are
Speaker 1: you just basically saying no, forget it. The Jets at
Speaker 1: eleven are not taking a wide receiver. They're going offensive line,
Speaker 1: So I'm not concerned about them.
Speaker 3: I'm fairly confident that the Jets are gonna go O line.
Speaker 3: It's just the stars seem to be aligned in that
Speaker 3: direction and ahead of them. I think the only wild
Speaker 3: card really is the Jags. And I honestly couldn't tell
Speaker 3: you what the hell the Jags are doing, so I
Speaker 3: don't no. Are they gonna address the fact that they
Speaker 3: lost Kalais Campbell. They have so many holes on this
Speaker 3: roster that Brown if you were to fall, and even
Speaker 3: Javon Kinlaw are good fits as well. Yeah, the Jags
Speaker 3: could take anybody at nine, which is kind of why
Speaker 3: I love your two.
Speaker 2: Yes, come on, they can do anything. Take two if
Speaker 2: he follows, come on, And that's the big one.
Speaker 3: And even if the Jets select receiver, I think there's
Speaker 3: just as high a chance that they take Judy as Lamb.
Speaker 3: So if we're sweating really the Jets and Raiders, and
Speaker 3: I think the Jets are going tackle with a slight
Speaker 3: chance they take receiver, which could be another receiver, I
Speaker 3: still think there's a pinch of value.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the twelve and a half
Speaker 1: is you know, that's the reason, right, it's the Jets
Speaker 1: and the Raiders, and you know, but that is the
Speaker 1: other thing, like, not only do one, at least one,
Speaker 1: maybe both of those teams have to go receiver, but
Speaker 1: they've got to go Lamb. So you never really know
Speaker 1: which way it's going to go. So I don't hate that. Personally,
Speaker 1: I'm a little less confident. I think that the Jets
Speaker 1: are going to go offensive line. They might but and
Speaker 1: if I had to wager one or the other, I
Speaker 1: would think offensive line. But certainly, you know, with everything
Speaker 1: I've seen, nobody seems to know. You know, some mocks
Speaker 1: I've seen have them going to have them going receiver,
Speaker 1: some have them going offensive line. So but either way,
Speaker 1: I don't know which offensive lineman, so which wide receiver
Speaker 1: so I don't hate it. What I do like is
Speaker 1: the number of running backs taken in the first round.
Speaker 1: The over under is half a running back, and I'm
Speaker 1: going to go with the under, and it's at plus
Speaker 1: money here, it's at plus one sixty five at least
Speaker 1: last I checked.
Speaker 2: May have changed in the last five minutes, as a
Speaker 2: lot of these odds are.
Speaker 1: But you've obviously got Swift, You've got Taylor, You've got Domins,
Speaker 1: You've got Edward Hilaire. So you've got, you know, at
Speaker 1: least for maybe more like pretty solid running backs. Guys,
Speaker 1: you can contribute right away. But you know already what
Speaker 1: has happened with the NFL, which is essentially that running
Speaker 1: backs are fungible for the most part, and that's the
Speaker 1: way teams look at them. And you know, you get
Speaker 1: to the back end of the first round, no idea,
Speaker 1: what can happen? Right, anybody could basically decide, oh, you know,
Speaker 1: I really want Swift. I'm gonna you know, trade minor
Speaker 1: draft capital to be able to move up a couple
Speaker 1: of spots. And then you get into the very back
Speaker 1: end of the first round and you take a running back.
Speaker 1: But I mean, you've got the Ravens, the Titans, the Packers,
Speaker 1: the Niners, the Chiefs, none of them is necessarily.
Speaker 4: Teams of the clue.
Speaker 3: Teams with the clue that aren't gonna take a running back.
Speaker 1: That's correct, and that that's a more direct way of
Speaker 1: saying what I'm trying to say. So for me, look again,
Speaker 1: you it's really difficult because you know, I think the
Speaker 1: first running back that's gonna go is gonna go probably
Speaker 1: early on in the second round, is what my guess is.
Speaker 1: But so once you get to that spot, it's a
Speaker 1: little up in the air. But you know, since they're
Speaker 1: getting the plus money ongoing the under, I'd lean that way.
Speaker 1: So I will take under half a running back being
Speaker 1: selected in the first round at plus one sixty five.
Speaker 4: Yeah, love it.
Speaker 3: Like I said, these teams are sharp at the bottom
Speaker 3: of the first rounds. Even Pete Carroll can't ruin this
Speaker 3: because it's so clear that they need to draft an
Speaker 3: offensive lineman.
Speaker 2: Don't go that far. He could easily ruin this.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna bet at this point that that he's
Speaker 1: gonna you know, he's gonna stick with a normal draft
Speaker 1: strategy and not and not screw it all up.
Speaker 2: But it's it's certainly possible.
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is one again you never know, you know,
Speaker 1: when you get to this, you know, especially as it
Speaker 1: gets later in the first round, teams things get crazy,
Speaker 1: so you never really know. But I feel pretty confident
Speaker 1: that you know, because and I personally this is you know,
Speaker 1: again we talk about the intel versus our evaluation.
Speaker 2: I don't really see Swift.
Speaker 1: That you know much better than Taylor or Edwards Hilaire,
Speaker 1: who you know, my guy Mike Tegler really loves. I
Speaker 1: don't see that huge difference between them. So I don't
Speaker 1: really see the need for a team to try to
Speaker 1: trade out necessarily to go grab one of them as
Speaker 1: opposed to waiting for another. So anyway, for me, again,
Speaker 1: it's plus money, so that makes it more enticing. But
Speaker 1: I'll take under half a running back at plus one
Speaker 1: sixty five.
Speaker 2: All right, let's do you got one more for me?
Speaker 4: Yeah? One more?
Speaker 3: I'm going to take another over. And it's a position
Speaker 3: that is kind of getting phased out right now. You
Speaker 3: speak talk about running back and how much they quote
Speaker 3: unquote matter to an NFL team, and Patrick Queen currently
Speaker 3: over twenty three and a half. It's basically even at
Speaker 3: minus one ten. He's a run stopping inside linebacker. Some
Speaker 3: of his traits are worrisome in terms of coverage, and
Speaker 3: that position is slowly getting phased out of the game.
Speaker 3: If you're inside linebacker, if you're a predominantly run stopping guy,
Speaker 3: your utility is not as impactful is as if you
Speaker 3: are an edge linebacker that can get in there and
Speaker 3: rush the passer or a great coverage guy. It seems
Speaker 3: like if you were to do an inside linebacker comparison,
Speaker 3: people tend to like Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray over Patrick Queen,
Speaker 3: and like I said, the emphasis on edge is going
Speaker 3: to push people to take guys like Chase on a
Speaker 3: Penza and Gross Matteos over him. The most popular position
Speaker 3: I am seeing, and this is kind of a running theme,
Speaker 3: is that he's a good CJ. Moseley replacements with the Ravens,
Speaker 3: which would be much later than twenty three and a half,
Speaker 3: and just looking at some of these teams in the middle,
Speaker 3: I don't think that they would spend a middle of
Speaker 3: the first round pick on a position with such little
Speaker 3: impact as inside linebacker. The Saints are pretty strong at
Speaker 3: this position. The Vikings are strong at this position. I
Speaker 3: cannot see the Patriots taking a standard inside linebackers, specifically
Speaker 3: when they lost a lot of edge talent in Jamie
Speaker 3: Collins last year. So yeah, give me Patrick Queen falling
Speaker 3: down twenty three and at past twenty three at minus
Speaker 3: one ten.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it. I think that's great. I do
Speaker 1: think that this has all the makings of the Ravens
Speaker 1: at twenty eight. I could see maybe at the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: you know that, you know, the last pick of the
Speaker 1: first round or something like that.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I would really be surprised. That's a really good.
Speaker 1: One, and I'm a little annoyed that I didn't have
Speaker 1: it on my list, but I'm going to bet it
Speaker 1: as soon as we're dumb with this podcast, which will
Speaker 1: be in two minutes. Yeah, that's a good one. I
Speaker 1: just I don't see him going before twenty three and
Speaker 1: a half. And I must have missed it, honestly, because
Speaker 1: that is that is lower than I would have expected,
Speaker 1: because I think the general consensus is, you know, the
Speaker 1: Ravens are kind of the earliest that I can see
Speaker 1: him going, so at that point and that's twenty eight,
Speaker 1: I believe. So that's a really good one. I like
Speaker 1: it and not the most exciting one.
Speaker 4: Yeah, random linebacker, right.
Speaker 2: I love it. No, it's actually it's actually very very good. Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's good. All right.
Speaker 1: I think we've given our listeners a bunch of different
Speaker 1: things to have fun with, some with really long odds,
Speaker 1: some with plus money, but a lot of different things
Speaker 1: going into Day one, maybe day two if you want
Speaker 1: to get into the tight end pool a little bit.
Speaker 2: Hopefully Day two.
Speaker 1: Goodness, let's not draft tight ends in round one and
Speaker 1: this one. But either way, we're gonna have something to
Speaker 1: focus on that is actual, something to gamble on which
Speaker 1: is gonna be really really fun.
Speaker 2: But anyway, that is it for today's show.
Speaker 1: Rich as always, it was great having on to remind
Speaker 1: everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can download the grid Iron Gamble podcast on
Speaker 3: any podcatcher you use, Apple, Spotify, Stitcher. Catch us on
Speaker 3: Twitter at grid Iron Gamble. We'll be doing our own
Speaker 3: NFL Draft props later today on Monday, so check that out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you'll be ready to go with all the draft props.
Speaker 1: I look forward to you sweat and your action for
Speaker 1: three straight days as crazy as it's going to be.
Speaker 2: Well, thanks again for coming on. Everybody.
Speaker 1: Remember don't forget to head over to bettingpros dot com
Speaker 1: to check out our consensus draft props and you can
Speaker 1: bet on obviously NFL futures and all that stuff that's
Speaker 1: over at betting pros dot com for the draft props
Speaker 1: Betting pros dot com slash draft hyphen props.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We're gonna be back next week talking
Speaker 2: about some more NFL futures. I'll talk to you then