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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BED

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as always by Mike cost my companion, Michael Padre, my

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Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, So I'm in.

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Speaker 2: Hello Chad. Do you have a nice holiday?

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Speaker 1: Beautiful holiday? We celebrated the traditional Jewish Christmas. We went

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Speaker 1: to a movie. We got Chinese food. It was semi

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Speaker 1: glorious because it turns out I don't like Chinese food

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Speaker 1: and I'm eating the Chinese food. And I said to

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Speaker 1: my wife, you know what, I just don't like it.

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Speaker 1: Every year we get it and I don't like it,

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Speaker 1: and she goes, every year, you say it, Why do

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Speaker 1: you have to say it? And my son goes, yeah,

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Speaker 1: don't yuck, our young dad. The good news is no

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Speaker 1: one gave me a cake, which I wouldn't have eaten

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Speaker 1: because I'm like Patrick Mahomes, I'm like Derrick Henry, I'm

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Speaker 1: like Lamar Jackson. I am in my playoff diet because

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Speaker 1: I'm always in my playoff diet because sugar and carbs

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Speaker 1: are the enemy and we know this, and I feel

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Speaker 1: like Netflix should have had more forethought to not offer

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Speaker 1: a cake. Two professional athletes who are so specific about

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Speaker 1: their diet. What do you think of that?

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Speaker 2: I don't mind it. I don't know how I feel

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Speaker 2: still about the Netflix experience, what about you? But it

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Speaker 2: kind of throws off trying to flip between NFL and NBA,

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Speaker 2: which I wasn't too big with a fan of like

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Speaker 2: it made it more of a hassle. And I noticed

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Speaker 2: the commercials on Netflix, like you know, the two minute drill.

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Speaker 2: I think one team punted and they immediately went to

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Speaker 2: another commercial after already doing a commercial with the two

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Speaker 2: minute mark. And it's like, oh god, this is the

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Speaker 2: part of capitalism I hate. It's just getting way too aggressive.

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Speaker 2: So I'm excited to see what the numbers are Chad,

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Speaker 2: because those are two bad games from I would say

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Speaker 2: the general public's perspective, But I honestly enjoyed it. We

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Speaker 2: saw like two of the best quarterbacks just doing their thing,

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Speaker 2: dominating teams that you know they are playoff teams, so

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Speaker 2: you can tell some teams are getting ready ramping it

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Speaker 2: up heading into the playoffs. Other teams are just hanging

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Speaker 2: on right, just limping into the playoffs because it's been

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Speaker 2: such a long season, so weah pretty insane Christmas Day games.

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Speaker 1: It was really telling. Yeah, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: when we were talking about this game, we basically said,

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Speaker 1: are we buying this team that is getting better and

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Speaker 1: is proving it with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, they

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Speaker 1: are all of a sudden, they've been hanging on to

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Speaker 1: get to fifteen to one, fifteen and one the last

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Speaker 1: three games. They are legit. And it's hard to say

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Speaker 1: that about a fifteen to one team, but boy, now

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Speaker 1: they get three weeks to get everybody held healthy, to

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Speaker 1: get the first round game, the second round game at home,

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Speaker 1: to have that advantage. It is setting up so perfectly

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Speaker 1: for them and the Ravens, like all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: their defense looks better. It had been getting better. The

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Speaker 1: back half of that defense have been getting better and better.

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Speaker 1: They were helped because, boy, we've been talking about CJ.

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Speaker 1: Shroud looking terrible all year. They made him look like

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Speaker 1: a rookie. In Week one. He could not hit passes.

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Speaker 1: He was getting taking bad sacks. This Texans team and

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Speaker 1: the Steelers too, What happened was all four teams did

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Speaker 1: what we thought they were going to do and what

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Speaker 1: they've been proving to do all year. They were exactly

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Speaker 1: who their records in play showed they were exactly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's also I do think it's about what

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Speaker 2: we talked about the injuries. Like the Ravens, their whole

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Speaker 2: offense is healthy. The Houston, you know, they've lost their

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Speaker 2: two receivers, they have a bunch of on the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: and like you said a couple weeks ago, Joe Mixon

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Speaker 2: has not looked right, like he just not had the

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Speaker 2: same burst hitting the holes the same way. And for

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Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh game, I think it's a blessing, honestly, this

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Speaker 2: last stretch here, because now I think they might avoid

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Speaker 2: paying Russell Wilson legit money. Like there was a minute

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Speaker 2: there they were about to give him, like what a

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Speaker 2: three year, one hundred million dollar contract, and you know,

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Speaker 2: they basically hit a wall with him that he just

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Speaker 2: as good as he is, right as good as he looked,

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Speaker 2: you can still see that he just makes these really

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Speaker 2: bad mental errors that just catch up with him. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's it's a good time for people been favorites. Man

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Speaker 2: like this is just the craziest time we're living in.

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Speaker 2: You just blindly bet these favorites and they're just cashing.

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Speaker 2: No problem.

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Speaker 1: Two more, two more road favorites cash. Yesterday Steelers lost

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Speaker 1: at home, the Texans lost at home, the Ravens won easily,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs one easily. Let's get into it today. As

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Speaker 1: our NFL Week seventeen Best Bets episode, Simon and I

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Speaker 1: will narrow down our five picks for the favorites one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest presented by

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. We will also get into the foxhole,

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Speaker 1: give out our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week,

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Speaker 1: discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted, money line, Underdog Parlay,

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Speaker 1: the underdog round Robin, and so much more. Bets are

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Speaker 1: rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made. As

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Speaker 1: our volume podcast, Boss Colin Coward likes to say there's

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Speaker 1: a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the

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Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and

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Speaker 1: now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.

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Speaker 1: Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit ten dollars place

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Speaker 1: to bet for five dollars to get one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be

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Speaker 1: used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever

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Speaker 1: the moment, it's a never ordinary at bet three six

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Speaker 1: five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Penncilvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply before we get to sharp calls. Another reminder,

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Speaker 1: if you are participating in the Favorites Pick Them contest

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Speaker 1: this week, your picks must be in by one pm

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, not Sunday. We're including the Saturday games. That

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Speaker 1: means you must make your picks by one pm on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Get those picks in by Saturday, not Sunday for week seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Good luck all right. Wise, guys always have an opinion

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Speaker 1: on what we're talking about, even over Christmas they don't rest,

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Speaker 1: just another football week for them. Lines are moving based

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Speaker 1: on our conversations. We're going to hear what the sharps

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Speaker 1: have to say. Simon, let's do it. Sharp calls Hello,

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Speaker 1: who's there?

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Speaker 2: I'm talking rain rain down.

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Speaker 1: Somebody saying many.

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Speaker 2: It's obviously I hit the book after our show on Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: but I didn't go to any sports books yesterday. Did

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Speaker 2: go up to the runner's house yesterday either like it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, obviously there's too much going on. Let people

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Speaker 2: have some time off theither family. I'm not a total

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Speaker 2: cycle path, so this is a little be This will

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Speaker 2: be like a shorter version of it, just in the

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Speaker 2: sense of not that everyone scared off because all these

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Speaker 2: favorites have just been hitting, but like there's no confidence

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Speaker 2: behind these guys bets right now. Which is very interesting

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Speaker 2: because there's a couple of lines this week I really liked.

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Speaker 2: I've stood out to me, and it doesn't seem like

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Speaker 2: everyone's jumping on the same boat with us. The ones

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Speaker 2: you nailed, Chad, especially on Sunday. A lot of pros

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Speaker 2: I've talked you really liked the rams. They liked that side.

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Speaker 2: A lot of pros I've talked through really like the

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Speaker 2: Green Bay side, and we've seen that number at a

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Speaker 2: couple of books flip to this point, which I can't

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Speaker 2: lie to you. Chad's making me like Minnesota even more

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Speaker 2: because it's just like, yeah, people just have not believed

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Speaker 2: in them all season, Like this is this is not

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Speaker 2: that shocking and it's not a game. I'm rushing a

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Speaker 2: bet because I'm just hoping I get it too, Like

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Speaker 2: give give me a plus two on the Vikings at home,

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, that'd be a gift. A lot of

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Speaker 2: guys agree with. On the Panthers right, that number fell

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Speaker 2: too high. Shockingly, I saw a couple of books touch

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Speaker 2: eight and a half with it. Now a couple books

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Speaker 2: are back down at seven and a half, which again

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Speaker 2: for a minute, I was like, what am I missing here?

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Speaker 2: Like even that dog to me felt like a dog

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Speaker 2: mean you were gonna be on no matter what this week.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad it's come down because it was scare me off.

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Speaker 2: And then again we debated. I thought way more people

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Speaker 2: would be on New England. I don't think guys are

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Speaker 2: willing to put up that much big money on this

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Speaker 2: New England side, and it could just be because they

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Speaker 2: are so bad and dogs just aren't hitting like they

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Speaker 2: had they're used to right, Like, to me, this number

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Speaker 2: I thought would be down to three three and a

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Speaker 2: half come today, it's gone the other way, like it's

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Speaker 2: up to four and a half in a lot of books.

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Speaker 2: So I think guys are just a little gun shy

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Speaker 2: and they're they're more heavy into taking these favorites. Especially

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Speaker 2: it's a good week for teasers, Like we already talked

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Speaker 2: about it. It's a week where you could take these

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Speaker 2: numbers down against bad teams that sure they might not

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Speaker 2: cut for this huge spread of eight, but they're gonna

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Speaker 2: cover two or three, Like they're gonna cover those those numbers.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, for dogs that guys agree with us on.

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Speaker 2: We're a land in Carolina and we talked about it.

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Speaker 2: We both bet it Detroit got down to minus three.

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Speaker 2: I know some smart money on the other side of it,

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Speaker 2: But me and you talk about I think they're misreading

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Speaker 2: Dan Campbell like he's talked about they're gonna go all

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Speaker 2: out and not sit and rest this game. I think

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Speaker 2: they're banking on them resting for this game. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: very very interesting game of or week. I should say,

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Speaker 2: I'm just professionals taken favorites not so much the dog

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Speaker 2: so's it's finally going the other way. I think guys

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Speaker 2: are finally been beating down to this point chat of

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Speaker 2: just being like, man, it's just simpler to bet these

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Speaker 2: favorites right now, they're just you know what we talked

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Speaker 2: about right that the teams are more aggressive on going

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Speaker 2: for it on fourth downs and the shortened fields has

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Speaker 2: really helped these favorites. So it's a unique, unique season

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Speaker 2: that continues to favorite the favorites.

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Speaker 1: Well, guess what we're gonna kick it off right away,

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Speaker 1: something we never do. We'll discuss. It's our big balls.

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Speaker 1: Better the Week presented by Tommy John. If you've got

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Speaker 1: the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start

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Speaker 1: with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest right

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Speaker 1: off the bat. The LA Chargers. They're minus four and

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Speaker 1: a half right now at New England. This was a

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Speaker 1: history making conversation on Tuesday, and this is what a

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Speaker 1: weird year it is. It's the first time ever you

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Speaker 1: have not just warned me against an exact decision, you outright,

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Speaker 1: you outright feet do it. But then in our chat

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Speaker 1: this morning, I feel like you're as beaten down as

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Speaker 1: I am on this, and I think yesterday even sort

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Speaker 1: of confirm that, and then getting this validation from the

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Speaker 1: professional betters. This is the first year we would ever

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Speaker 1: even think about making a road favorite, going cross country

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Speaker 1: in this spot against a massive trend, against the luck rankings,

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Speaker 1: first time we would make them a big balls. But

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Speaker 1: I will say, you know you said the numbers moved

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Speaker 1: from four to four and a half. I couldn't resist anymore,

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Speaker 1: and I gave myself a little gift yesterday Christmas morning gift,

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Speaker 1: and I betted it for a completely irrational splurge. We

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Speaker 1: may be off, but I don't know. I just love

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Speaker 1: the Chargers here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly I was. It was the same thing with Cleveland,

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Speaker 2: where I was like, it's going to be cold in

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Speaker 2: the North. These teams coming from warm climates tend to

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Speaker 2: struggle late in December in these exact scenario, especially a

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Speaker 2: team like the Chargers play indoors. It's once again like

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Speaker 2: we already talk about it's coming in the fifties and rainy,

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Speaker 2: like the it's gonna be warm in a lot of

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Speaker 2: these North North games. And it honestly came down to

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Speaker 2: the coaching Chad, like I just I have more faith

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Speaker 2: in this Chargers team be prepared for this game, and

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Speaker 2: less faith in a New England team that basically felt

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Speaker 2: like that was their super Bowl last week against the

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Speaker 2: Bills and all the bounces went their way for the

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Speaker 2: most part, and they still couldn't win that game. And

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Speaker 2: you know, the only really bad player I could think

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Speaker 2: of was the backward pass by Drake May. But it's

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Speaker 2: like not that we expected, but it's like he's a rookie.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna make stupid little mistakes like that. And the

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Speaker 2: Chargers are a team that that's all they do. They

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Speaker 2: just wait for you to make a mistake. Once you

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Speaker 2: make it, the capitalize and then it's basically over. And

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Speaker 2: we've seen it this season, Like you know, we've I

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Speaker 2: feel like done pretty well knowing when to be on

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Speaker 2: the Charger and when to get off of them. And

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Speaker 2: I thought this was a spot to get off this

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Speaker 2: Chargers team. But you know, the more I've talked to people,

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Speaker 2: the more I've dove into it, it's like, all right,

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Speaker 2: Chad's right. I should have trusted my initial gut reaction

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Speaker 2: of the Stummer's too low, Like I said, my model

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Speaker 2: had this at six, So to me, they're still showing

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Speaker 2: value here. And you know, if we come in here

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Speaker 2: Sunday night and this is the game, we do lose,

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Speaker 2: and it's like we're kicking ourselves because we knew it

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Speaker 2: was a trap that would be brutal. But we talked

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Speaker 2: about this year has just been different. This isn't that

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Speaker 2: type of spot. Doesn't matter what the books need, doesn't

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Speaker 2: matter that it's a good home dog. This number just

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Speaker 2: feels too low to me on the side. So that's

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Speaker 2: why I do support taking the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: So we went through this on Tuesday too. You just

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Speaker 1: repeated almost verbatim what I put in my notes to

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Speaker 1: talk about today. As to ultimately why I liked this game.

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Speaker 1: I thought it had come down way too much because

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Speaker 1: of how the Pats played against the Bills. That was

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Speaker 1: a that was the exact we screwed that game up.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're screwing this game up. They came out.

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Speaker 1: Drake may won with his legs. He's been accurate. We

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Speaker 1: know that he's going to do that. But it's different

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Speaker 1: when the spread is fourteen and a half than when

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Speaker 1: it's four. And so many of these games this year

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Speaker 1: are coming down to the coaching decisions, Harbaugh always makes

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Speaker 1: the right one. He's a football savant. The way he

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Speaker 1: played the end of that first half against the Broncos,

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Speaker 1: that's what swung the game right, calling the time out,

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Speaker 1: making them kick it, getting the penalty, like those things

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Speaker 1: can only line up if he's thinking about strategically, how

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Speaker 1: am I going to manage every second of this game?

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Speaker 1: And he just does that better than Girod Mayo. I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying Mayo won't do it one day. He might.

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Speaker 1: He might, like he had a good call with that

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Speaker 1: fake punt last week against the Bills, right like why

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Speaker 1: not be more aggressive, have a good time. But he's

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Speaker 1: not the strategist that Jim Harbaugh is yet. And so

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Speaker 1: that's what it came down to for me when I

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Speaker 1: kept looking at him like this just it doesn't make sense,

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Speaker 1: and we've been proven right and moved back up this morning.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about I don't know about Mayo though,

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Speaker 2: because I also honestly I've heard so many whispers about

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Speaker 2: the Veriabal story line him coming back that we don't

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Speaker 2: know what the are in that locker room right now either,

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Speaker 2: So it could all just be very negative for New England.

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Speaker 2: And maybe that's the part we're missing that this Chargers

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Speaker 2: seem just going to roll this team in this week.

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Speaker 1: Well we hope so, because it's our big balls bet

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Speaker 1: Tommy john dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy john dot

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Speaker 1: com slash favorites. Denver Broncos visiting the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 3: Pro Football's two superpowers renew their classic rival.

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Speaker 1: I can't quit this one. It was like another one

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Speaker 1: that was in consideration for big balls. It's another one

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Speaker 1: sort of that I gifted myself on Christmas Day when

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Speaker 1: it moved to three and a half, I took it

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Speaker 1: at three and a half. It's since moved back down

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Speaker 1: to three. What are your thoughts here?

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Speaker 2: I feel supportive of it just because of the sentiety defense.

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Speaker 2: We talked about it on Tuesday, a little bit of

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Speaker 2: just I don't think they're good enough to be giving

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Speaker 2: up a hook to a team like Denver that can

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Speaker 2: move the ball offensively, and even when Bonnicks makes stupid

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Speaker 2: turnovers and mistakes, it doesn't slow him down. He just

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Speaker 2: comes back and keeps slinging it, and Trumpayne kind of

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Speaker 2: has that trust in him that he'll keep letting them

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Speaker 2: push the ball downfield. And defensively, I feel like that's

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Speaker 2: an edge for this Denver team that actually have a

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Speaker 2: good defense that can rush the passer. And you know,

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Speaker 2: obviously Joe Burrow have an incredible season, but how many

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Speaker 2: times we've seen him kind of shoot himself on the

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Speaker 2: foot at some point of the game. It's not not

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Speaker 2: his fault, it's just so much put on his shoulder.

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Speaker 2: And to me, that's why this game feels like I'll

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Speaker 2: be close. And I know Denver doesn't need this one, right,

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Speaker 2: it's they need to win one of the next two.

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Speaker 2: Obviously they want to win this one. But you know,

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Speaker 2: that number, to me at three and a half is

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Speaker 2: just so tempting. I can't really pass on it. So

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Speaker 2: it's another game where it's like hard to like dogs

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Speaker 2: this week, but at this number against the Cincinnati defense,

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Speaker 2: it feels like a good opportunity. And yeah, matchup wise,

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Speaker 2: like really going through all the numbers are breaking it

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Speaker 2: down how this defensive line of Denver can match up

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Speaker 2: against the offensive line of the Bengals. It's really going

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Speaker 2: to work out for him, just because Joe Burrow, honestly,

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Speaker 2: he is one of the quarterbacks that does hold onto

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Speaker 2: the ball like he does take sacks the other guys

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Speaker 2: don't because he likes to push it downfield. It's too

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Speaker 2: Joe Is. I think we're kind of starting to figure

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Speaker 2: that out where. You know, for a while there, we'd

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Speaker 2: always blame his offensive line. Is the years have gone

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Speaker 2: along here, it's like, well a lot of these are

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Speaker 2: self inflicted wounds by Joe, Like he's just not taking

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Speaker 2: the first open read. He wants to kind of test

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Speaker 2: the limits and push it downfield. So it's all about

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Speaker 2: the number here, Like you just said, it's shifting down

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Speaker 2: to three to a lot of books. So at three

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Speaker 2: and a half, especially contest wise, I would play it.

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Speaker 2: But if it was two and a half, would even

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Speaker 2: think about playing it. It's just it's all about getting

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Speaker 2: that hooked to me, because I do think the Bengals

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Speaker 2: will win it, but by more than a field goal

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Speaker 2: feels like a stretch.

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Speaker 1: I think I agree with everything you're saying. You know,

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Speaker 1: when we talked about this on Tuesday, I liked it

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Speaker 1: because we've got a pass rush that can dominate the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: especially if Mimes and Brown are out. They were limited

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Speaker 1: participants on Tuesday. Haven't seen any updates, you know, Today

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Speaker 1: is sort of the key. But we saw what Cleveland

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Speaker 1: did against this Bengals team. They were all over the

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Speaker 1: Bengals backfield. They made Joe Burrow look better because he

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Speaker 1: had no choice but to look good when he's being

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Speaker 1: rushed constantly. They had four sacks. They were in his grill.

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Speaker 1: This brown this Broncos team is better in coverage than

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Speaker 1: the Browns. They've got just as good a pass rush,

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Speaker 1: and they've got an offense. Like the only reason the

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Speaker 1: Bengals covered that game is because they were playing Dorian

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Speaker 1: Thompson Robinson. So I stole this from Rayba on the

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Speaker 1: Action Network pod Bo nicks against bad defenses like below,

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Speaker 1: fifty percent of the league across a variety of metrics,

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Speaker 1: seven or zero straight up and against the spread, twenty

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Speaker 1: nine points per game, thirteen touchdowns, two picks. Damn that

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Speaker 1: makes you, I knew you like that. That makes you

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Speaker 1: feel better about it, right, you know? So yeah, and

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Speaker 1: like also, here's the biggest news to me. We've seen

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Speaker 1: this Broncos defense struggle the past few weeks against the

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Speaker 1: Browns and then the Chargers when Roley Moss was out

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Speaker 1: of the game, their cornerback. He was a full participant

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Speaker 1: in Tuesday. I would expect he's playing this weekend. So

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Speaker 1: it's more of the reason all the more reason to

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Speaker 1: like it. The one thing I would say about the

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Speaker 1: two and a half, and maybe Evan can help illuminate

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Speaker 1: this over the next few minutes and we'll come to

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Speaker 1: him in his segment. I think the two to two

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Speaker 1: and a half you're winning just as often as the

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Speaker 1: three to three and a half this season, so it's

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Speaker 1: something something to think about. Big Pros Joe's game. Pros

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Speaker 1: had been all over the Broncos in this game. I

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Speaker 1: put in Arizona at the Rams, even though it's at

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Speaker 1: six and a half. We're not going to play this one.

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Speaker 1: I think the number has moved so much, but I

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Speaker 1: want to keep it in because we discussed it so

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Speaker 1: much on Sunday and so much on Tuesday. I don't

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Speaker 1: want people to think we forgot about it, and then

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Speaker 1: you may in sharp calls like it got up to

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Speaker 1: seven yesterday before it came back down to six and

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Speaker 1: a half. Do you feel strongly about this game at

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Speaker 1: six and a half, that's what it'll be in the contest.

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Speaker 2: I do like the Rams, but I do have other

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Speaker 2: favorites I like more just because of what we talked about.

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Speaker 2: I feel like the numbers move so much, you know,

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Speaker 2: Connors might give it a go, like that's a big

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Speaker 2: deal for Theirs. And I mean, I know that was

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Speaker 2: a two offensive linement they put on the IR they

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Speaker 2: lost after last week, I'd have to go back and look.

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Speaker 2: But I think so, you know, if they're losing two

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Speaker 2: offensive linement and they're number one running back, how do

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Speaker 2: we not love the Rams? Like, I know that they

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Speaker 2: don't have the greatest defense, but given that level where

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Speaker 2: it's all on Kyler, that tends to be the worst

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Speaker 2: spot you can be in if you're Arizona. Just Kyler

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Speaker 2: seems like he has not live up to the moment

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Speaker 2: this season and the fact that this Cardinals team, we

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Speaker 2: could say the best game of Kyler's career or I

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Speaker 2: guess just the season was against this Rams team earlier

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Speaker 2: this year when Rams were all banged up. You know,

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Speaker 2: they know that and they've been waiting for this opportunity,

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Speaker 2: and you know, iceing on the cake is like they

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Speaker 2: win this, they win the division, so they get a

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Speaker 2: mini bye week next week. That's a big deal. So yeah,

430
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 2: I love the Rams, But my worry chat is just

431
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 2: the numbers move too much. So I agree with you

432
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: on that.

433
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 1: All right, So well, it's kind of a back burner game.

434
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: I just didn't want to leave it out. The next game,

435
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders at the New Orleans Saints, I'm falling

436
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: more and more in love with this as the Saints.

437
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: I don't tell you, but doesn't this feel like the

438
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 1: game where you one hundred percent go in on the Saints?

439
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:47,119
Speaker 1: They just got blown out. The Raiders won in a

440
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: game that they clearly should have lost. Like, why isn't

441
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: this game coming up more? This is a game in

442
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: years past we would not be hesitating. Zero hesitation.

443
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,159
Speaker 2: I agree with you about betting the number, but it's

444
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: a game I have zero confidence. And because I have

445
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: no read on how Spencer Rautler is going to do

446
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 2: and how he's gonna be able to move the ball

447
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: and the flip side, I do kind of have a

448
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 2: feeling how Vegas can move the ball. We've talked about

449
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 2: they still have some of their studs offensively that they

450
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 2: can move the ball and get it to and I

451
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 2: know the Saints were unlucky last week. There were times

452
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 2: where Spencer took off with the ball and you're like,

453
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: that's the key to this offense. If you just run

454
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 2: the ball, brother, Like you can open up the offense

455
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: in so many ways, but eventually he went away from it,

456
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 2: and again they just they're the only team this season.

457
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 2: I believe they got shut out this year, like they're

458
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 2: the first team they not score a single point in

459
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 2: the game this year. So I agree with you. Would

460
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 2: love to be on the same shot. I would love

461
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 2: to feel confident about it, but I just have a

462
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 2: hard time putting my money on this team right now.

463
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 2: I just have zero faith in the Saints' offense this season.

464
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: Just going back to the Broncos and Bengals for a second,

465
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: teams that well, Actually, Ivan, I'll ask you to explain this.

466
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I'm quite sure. I understand the minus

467
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 1: one and a half, minus two, minus two and a half.

468
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: He's got the records against the spread at each number.

469
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 1: So I guess we'll talk. Let's talk about a little

470
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 1: bit in the segment when you come on, and we'll

471
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 1: we'll unpack it a little bit. I mean, that's fair.

472
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 1: Going back to the Raiders and Saints for a second,

473
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: it just feels like you bet the number, like we're

474
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 1: you buy low, you sell high. The Raiders benefited from

475
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 1: multiple Jags turnovers. The Saints had the JV against the

476
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: Packers at prime time, against the team I think is

477
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 1: better than Minnesota, Like the offense is not any better

478
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 1: this week, but should they be dogs and then teams

479
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 1: off a blowout like the Saints sixty five percent against

480
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years, and it happens more often

481
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: than you think, Like we're talking close to one hundred games,

482
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: So I don't know. It just feels like if we

483
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: had more confidence and we hadn't been getting just hammered

484
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: on quirky favorites this year, we wouldn't be hesitating, we'd

485
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: be pulling the trigger and we'd be proud of it.

486
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't just because there's just other better dogs

487
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 2: this week. It's like there's a couple there's a couple

488
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: of games right on and then where I have a

489
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 2: game that we've bet on that I have to have

490
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 2: watch closely. I'm just like, God, damn you, Chad, that's

491
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 2: what you feel like you're trying to do to me

492
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: right now. It's like, I don't want to be watching

493
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 2: this game. I don't have big money on this game.

494
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, you're right, it's probably the right spot. It's

495
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 2: another game, right I'd rather just throw in a teaser.

496
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 2: Give me seven and a half. That's a nice big

497
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 2: number for this Saints team, and that'll be my bet

498
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 2: for this. I just have zero interest to bet this

499
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 2: one straight.

500
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: For the record, I gave myself a lot of Prihnica

501
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: Christmas Day gifts in the form of bets like the Ravens,

502
00:25:55,480 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: Texans under fifty one and a half, Live the Charge

503
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: minus four, the Broncos plus three and a half. As

504
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: confident as I am talking about the Saints, I did

505
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,199
Speaker 1: not give myself a Christmas gift of the Saints at

506
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: plus one. Yet I'm just saying I did get Carolina

507
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,239
Speaker 1: at plus eight and a half against Tampa Bay and

508
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 1: it's now at eight. This was my exact decision. Panthers

509
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: started the year one and seven against the spread. It

510
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: burned all of us. They're three and four since then.

511
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 1: I think we've been on them all three times that

512
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:34,239
Speaker 1: they've won. We're going back to the well again. Like

513
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a question here. The market just

514
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: has not adjusted enough. We talked about sort of the

515
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 1: spread differentials from the last time these two played. It's

516
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: only a point and a half difference going back to Tampa.

517
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 1: But come on, let's go Panthers.

518
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's another game that you know, probably should just

519
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: take the over because it's going to be a game

520
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 2: that the Bucks are gonna be able to move the

521
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 2: ball anytime they want with Bucky Irving, with what they

522
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 2: have on the outside, with you know, Baker tends to

523
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 2: bounce back in these spots. Still been on move the ball.

524
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 2: But just even rewatching that game against the Cowboys as

525
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 2: well as Cooper Rush played, they just had guys open

526
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 2: all over the field. Like it just seems like this

527
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: Tampa secondary cannot keep up with opposing offenses right now.

528
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 2: And like we've talked about it, this the comfort level

529
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: of Carolina with Bryce Young right now is an all

530
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 2: time high, Like they are just so in sync between

531
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 2: the play calling, even Adam feeling like, you know, this

532
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 2: guy basically was sent to Carolina to die two years ago,

533
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 2: and he's just such a stud, especially his trust level

534
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: with Bryce Young, Like when he needs to on third

535
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 2: down and a really tight window, that's who he's looking for.

536
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 2: So I'm with you, like I love this Panthers team.

537
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 2: My only fear is just that I'm so in love

538
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 2: with it, Like this is another game where I took

539
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 2: their money line again, Like, I just love this matchup

540
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: for this team and the fact that it's still seven

541
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,239
Speaker 2: and a half and above since like way, like you

542
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 2: just said, way too much respect to a Bucks team

543
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 2: that we agree is good that they're gonna be able

544
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: to score and move the ball. But we know that

545
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,479
Speaker 2: the opening of this back door is going to be there.

546
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 2: Even if we're down twenty one or seventeen the first half,

547
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 2: this bet will still not be dead, Like We're still

548
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 2: gonna be alive. So I love the de Stummer is

549
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 2: still so big just because of what we talked about.

550
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 2: Just obviously clear disrespect to this Tampa Bay team. I mean,

551
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 2: just at.

552
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: Carolina Bryce Young two point zero. He's accurate, he's ballsy,

553
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: he takes hits in the pocket, but he also gets

554
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: out of the pocket, uses his legs. He's been a

555
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: revelation and like to his credit, you know, there's only

556
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: two weeks left in the season, but Dave Canalis finally

557
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: did say he'll be our quarter for the rest of

558
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: the season. He had been avoiding saying that, purposely voting

559
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: saying that. But yeah, we love we're booking in the seasons.

560
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: If they win these last two, we hit our over,

561
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 2: which would be an insane proposition if they can actually

562
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 2: do it.

563
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: So, look, we were bookending the season. We love the

564
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: Panthers at the beginning. We're loving the Panthers at the end.

565
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 1: They're finally the team we thought they would be. Simon.

566
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: Kudos to us really for having nowherewithal to stick with

567
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: the team, not backing down, not being afraid going back in,

568
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: even at the threat of a volt from our listeners,

569
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: telling them what's good for them. That's what we do.

570
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus one at Jacksonville.

571
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: This is another game.

572
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 1: The Titans are now two and thirteen against spread, tied

573
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 1: for the worst records to start the season in the

574
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: Super Bowl era per our friend Evan. At this point,

575
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: the only question is do you bet the regression or

576
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: do you pass? Like I was convinced on Tuesday, we

577
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: bet the regression a little bit less, so today I

578
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 1: don't feel as good about it.

579
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just another game where you're exactly the right

580
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 2: a normal year, just like the Saints, this would be

581
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: an easy bet, easy spot. They made a QB change

582
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 2: and no world was Old Love was gonna put up

583
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,479
Speaker 2: thirty points last week Like that really was about how

584
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 2: Mason Ruff is that much better as a quarterback for

585
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: this team. So that to me is the biggest difference.

586
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 2: The professionals. We talked Sunday night. They came in heavy

587
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 2: on this one, right, it was two and a half two,

588
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 2: They hit it right away. Now she's sitting now, just

589
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 2: sitting at one, and most pros I talked to they've

590
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 2: hit this number. I feel like in the Action app

591
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 2: kind of backs that up. So yeah, it's it's the

592
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 2: professional side, Like you're right, that's who the pros are

593
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 2: going to be on Tennessee. It's again there's other dogs

594
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 2: I like better, Like do we really like this better

595
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 2: than Denver? Do we like this better than Atlanta? Do

596
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 2: we like it better than Carolina? No? I don't, Right,

597
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 2: So that's the spot we're in here where it's like

598
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 2: me and Chad usually love betting these noble nobody believes

599
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 2: us ugly dogs, but we're just hesitating because they just

600
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 2: like Tennessee's a great example, they have not been hitting

601
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: like they should. And there's another spot where the number

602
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 2: is good. We probably should take it, but I just

603
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 2: have no urge to put my money on this type

604
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 2: of team.

605
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: What about teasing it? Like you get through three, you

606
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: get to seven, Like, do you tease it with the Saints?

607
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 2: If it was one and a half, I would right

608
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 2: now I'm looking at just one, so I wouldn't tease it.

609
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 2: Just get into seven because obviously people know pushes. Pushes

610
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: are no good and teasers.

611
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, uh yeah, I agree. Maybe on Sunday we play

612
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: it for a little bit as just a regular bet.

613
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: It's not I don't think it's making the contest. We

614
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: still appeal people of foxhol exec decision was the Panthers

615
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,479
Speaker 1: big balls as the Chargers. Simon says, was Atlanta, we

616
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: Owa Foxhall. I'm a little worried we won't find one

617
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: because I know we're on the same side as the

618
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: wise guys, and a lot of these games coming up

619
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: Dallas at Philadelphia eight and a half, it's come down,

620
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: But this one makes still makes no sense to me.

621
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: You know, we spoke about it on Tuesday and Sunday

622
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: night it was seven and a half. We were taking

623
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. It got up to eight that night, so

624
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 1: we were taking seven and a half in eight, sort

625
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 1: of hedging against Jalen Hurts being out. Then the line

626
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: blew up. I got up to ten and a half

627
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning, and there was still no news about

628
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts. And now it's slowly been coming back down

629
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: ten nine and a half nine eight and a half.

630
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: Still no news about Jalen Hurts. Cannot find any news.

631
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: You haven't heard anything. Fascinating subplot Simon.

632
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 2: I did message someone that works with the egos and

633
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: they're in the note today and they basically just said

634
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 2: that they'll know more info after today's practice, which obviously,

635
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 2: as we're recording right now, that's not happened. The scary

636
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 2: thing is, right now Hurts has a concussion and Kenny

637
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: Pickett has ribs, and they basically signed Ian Book after

638
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 2: a practice squad. So right now it's Tanny McKee and

639
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: Ian Books as their two quarterbacks. So if that's a scenario, yeah,

640
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 2: obviously me and Chad will just sit in our cowboy

641
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 2: tickets and let that ride if that's what's coming this Sunday.

642
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, if it's if we get any inkling of Hurts,

643
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 2: and I know the public, we'll know because they'll see

644
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 2: the line move just like we will. That's that's gonna

645
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 2: be the first way we know it's Hurts again. If

646
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 2: it does go right back up to ten, but right now,

647
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: like you just said, it's coming down because of so

648
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: much unknown. So I like the Eagles in the spot.

649
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 2: This feels like a good spot for their defensive bounce

650
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 2: back at home. They match up really well against this

651
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: Cowboys team. Believe the first time they played Eagles one

652
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 2: thirty to eight or thirty two to eight, something like that.

653
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 2: And you know it's just a defense that they are

654
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 2: really good in press coverage of man and man. And

655
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 2: we've seen with CD. If you can have really athletic

656
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 2: young corners like the Eagles do, it's different than you

657
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 2: can utilize his speed, right and we saw last week

658
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 2: like a team like the Bucks, they have no one

659
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: liked that and that's why you can force feed a

660
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: guy like him. And on top of that, you know

661
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 2: more I read about it like CD's basically playing with

662
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: the banged up shoulder, and yeah, he reaggravated it last

663
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 2: week getting tackled on it finished the game, but you

664
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 2: could see that he.

665
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: Didn't play like he played like two plays in the

666
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 1: second half.

667
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 2: He wasn't great. Fact, you could just see that he

668
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 2: was basically not that he Reinjos, I shouldn't say that

669
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 2: because we don't know, but you could see the discomfort

670
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 2: level have gone up such a level that he didn't

671
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: even want to be out there taking hits and they

672
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: kind of held him out. So yeah, we expect We

673
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: expected a letdown from the Cowboys after that huge emotional

674
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 2: win against that Bucks team, and he expected a bounce

675
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 2: back from an Egles team getting embarrassed and their defense

676
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 2: is getting chewed out all week by Fangio. But with

677
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 2: the unknown of like we just talked about the unknown

678
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: of Hurts, I can't confidently give this out to people

679
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 2: and listeners of the show. So yeah, it's it's a

680
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 2: game that I'm I want to be on the Eagles,

681
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 2: but I am hesitant to give it out right now

682
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,720
Speaker 2: just because of all the information we don't have on Hurts.

683
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, we definitely worry about the Eagles bounce back on defense.

684
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 1: We worry about Jalen all of a sudden being a

685
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 1: go on Sunday. We worry about Cooper Rush his Kryptonize alive.

686
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 2: It just moving minus seven and a half Eagles, so

687
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 2: it keeps dropping, which again that's not great if you

688
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 2: want to back the Eagles, but if you want to

689
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 2: grab Cowboys. Now, like we talked about, we've already done it.

690
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: I mean I'd grabbed eight and a half just in case.

691
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, but if you have the eight and you're getting

692
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 1: nervous that Jalen Hurts is going to play and you

693
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: want to buy out of the eight and you don't

694
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 1: want to wait, you could also take the seven and

695
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: a half, right Like, then you're you're getting to buy

696
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: out of your bet. You know, maybe it'll go down,

697
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 1: maybe you get the seven. Who knows, but it's an interesting,

698
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 1: interesting scenario for everybody, very interesting. I also worry that

699
00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 1: the Cowboys injuries in a lot of spots are going

700
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: to impact them more against a better team, and that

701
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: they just played their best game against the Bucks. They

702
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: had just found out they weren't in the playoffs. They clearly,

703
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: like Mike McCarthy, they were going to go play hard

704
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 1: in prime time. They were hitting like it was a

705
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 1: conference title game. That adds up, especially the following week

706
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: when you've sort of come down emotionally a little bit.

707
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked too though. That Cowboys game was not

708
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 2: a perfect match for the Cowboys. It really was like

709
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 2: everything they do well offensively, Buck struggled with and then defensively,

710
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 2: we talked about like their second team, the secondary has

711
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 2: really good hands on the Cowboys, and like that affected Baker,

712
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 2: like those windows just weren't there for him. So yeah,

713
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 2: I'm just shocked. As we're doing this live, the number

714
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 2: moved down even more like the Eagles hadn't your practice yet.

715
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 2: So this is clearly professionals trying to get ahead of

716
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 2: it getting on that Cowboys side.

717
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to run through this again and choose

718
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 1: a foxhil. It might have to be New Orleans. That's

719
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: kind of what's in my head right now, because because

720
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the rest of the games. Green Bay

721
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,280
Speaker 1: at Minnesota, this is a huge move.

722
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: I thought we were gonna do. I honestly think we

723
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 2: should just do Detroit for Foxhoul.

724
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 1: I would do Detroit. I love it. I just don't

725
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: know are we in.

726
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: The fi maybe fucking bet the Saints, Chad, Please, for

727
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 2: the love of God, are.

728
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 1: We in the foxhole? Though? We'll get to it. We'll

729
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: get to it. Green Bay at Minnesota. I love Green Bay,

730
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 1: you love Minnesota. The wise guys are with me. Yeah,

731
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: the wise guy I move numbers, the line is moved.

732
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 2: They're also with you on the Steelers. That didn't work

733
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:26,719
Speaker 2: out too well for them.

734
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 1: I didn't bet the Steelers.

735
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 2: You didn't bet the Chiefs, though I.

736
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: Didn't bet the Chiefs. I didn't bet the Steelers. I

737
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 1: didn't do the side.

738
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: You're on the Steelers. You don't see how that works.

739
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: No, because I was on the total. I lost either way,

740
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: but I was on the total.

741
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 2: You were on the Steelers.

742
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: I was a wishy, washing non opinion.

743
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 2: I told you it was my biggest bet and you

744
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 2: didn't even touch it. You were just like, I want

745
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 2: nothing to do with.

746
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: It, So I want nothing to do with it.

747
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 2: Beat on the Steelers.

748
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 1: I was wrong. Don't take it personally. I was wrong.

749
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: You were right. You made a lot of money on

750
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 1: the game. I lost because I was on total.

751
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 2: But that's a game. The pros were heavy, especially when

752
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 2: the Chris Johnson news came out. They were heavy on

753
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 2: the Steelers, and I just I don't know, I get

754
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 2: where people come from this Packers team, but especially now.

755
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 2: I told you, now the numbers move even more, like

756
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 2: I'm getting a plus number on the Vikings.

757
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 4: Now.

758
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I was gonna say, like the number is

759
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: moved from Packers plus one and a half to now

760
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 1: minus one, and it's been moving aggressively over the last

761
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: forty eight hours. I did bet the Packers' money line

762
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 1: on Christmas Day. They were still slight dogs at the time.

763
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 1: I guess might take if we're talking about like comps, right,

764
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: why why do I like the Packers more than the Vikings.

765
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: Why would I feel more comfortable betting the Packers than

766
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: I would say the Steelers. I just think the Packers

767
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 1: are a really physical team, and we know their identity

768
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: is run the ball with Josh Jacobs, limit turnovers, control

769
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: the clock, Jordan Love makes the throws at the right

770
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 1: time in the right situation, And I feel like Minnesota

771
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:11,240
Speaker 1: you're saying, I feel like Minnesota consistently is getting lucky

772
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: and lives and dies by Sam Darnold being able to

773
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 1: evade in the pocket and then throw over the top

774
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: of coverage that is breaking down, or Kevin O'Connell puts

775
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: him in a great spot and he can throw a

776
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: rope across the field from the opposite hash on like

777
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:37,240
Speaker 1: second to twelve after another holding penalty or ineligible player

778
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 1: downfield and sort of keep the chains moving. But that

779
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,439
Speaker 1: isn't sustainable to me. And then you look at their

780
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 1: wins during their win streak. Close games that just as

781
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 1: easily could have been lost is against the Bears, the Cardinals, Seattle,

782
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 1: and then they were tied with Atlanta in the f

783
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 1: quarter before Atlanta's turnovers completely put them out of the game.

784
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: To me, green Bay has dominated in their past five games,

785
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 1: no close games to inferior competition and a one field

786
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 1: goal that's not in the past five games.

787
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 2: Oh okay, okay, you got me there, You got me there.

788
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: Their one loss is a field goal to Detroit.

789
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know.

790
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 1: I just feel better about you know, you can see

791
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: teams getting better. I don't think Minnesota is necessarily getting better.

792
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 1: I think they've played to the best of their ability

793
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 1: and had things go well their way.

794
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: Can't refute any of that we've talked about. I think

795
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 2: they've been really lucky. But I also think that they

796
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 2: have the coach of the year and you know, a

797
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: quarterback that is living up to the moment. Like I told,

798
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 2: we talked about like as much as most said they've

799
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 2: been lucky, he's making big time throws and really really

800
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 2: intense tight situations down here. Like you said, they've been

801
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 2: playing all season above their talent level. They have a

802
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 2: nameless defense, they have Sam Darnold as their quarterback, and

803
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: they are whatever thirteen in two at this point. So

804
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 2: my whole issue is that they are a team that

805
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 2: when it's tight, they have one of the best teams

806
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 2: in all football. And on the flip side with Green Bay, again,

807
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:16,280
Speaker 2: nothing against Jordan Love, but when he's played against good teams,

808
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 2: he's not been great in those type moments. And they

809
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 2: have not played that many great teams this year, right,

810
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 2: Like you just went through their whole schedule other than Detroit,

811
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: They've had a cake walk these last couple of weeks.

812
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 2: Like this, to me is a true test for their defense,

813
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 2: which I don't think is that good. Even coming to

814
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 2: the year I said, I don't care they made a

815
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,479
Speaker 2: coaching change to their defense. I don't think they had

816
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 2: have the right pieces to it. So we're not doing

817
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 2: the Saints. It's please stop trying to do the Saints. Yeah,

818
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 2: I just look at this as it's just a Green

819
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 2: Bay team that the public is gonna love, everyone's all

820
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 2: into and I'm just I'm kind of dug in here

821
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 2: on the disrespect for this Vikings team, And like the

822
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,440
Speaker 2: number that now the numbers flipped, it's making even more confident.

823
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 2: It's like even even the public and now it feels

824
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 2: like it on with the professionals on the screen Bay side,

825
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 2: just a ton of love for this team that you know,

826
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 2: I just don't think they they have been tested, right,

827
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 2: they were testing that Detroit game. But even at Detroit game,

828
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 2: they should have won that right then, we both agree

829
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 2: on that that they were felt like the better team

830
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 2: against Detroit, but they just were not clutch at the

831
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:19,919
Speaker 2: end of the game, like they gave away the game.

832
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 2: It kind of gave the opportunity to Detroit to win that.

833
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 2: So that to meet you id just my fear here

834
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:26,879
Speaker 2: is that Minnesota, when it's close to the end, they're

835
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 2: going to steal this one.

836
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 4: All right.

837
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 1: You know, I think that these will be two good

838
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 1: games for Scoots Roulette. I can't wait to be on

839
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 1: the opposite sides of it. We haven't had a we

840
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: haven't had a Oh that's a good one.

841
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: Do that. Yeah, it's fun.

842
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, we haven't had a game where we are head

843
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: to head all season. I think on Christmas, you're on

844
00:42:55,640 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: the Steelers guy, Come on, I was heartbroken.

845
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 2: I hope brought my action app Look Christmas morning, See

846
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 2: if Chad was me back? I mean nope, No, it

847
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 2: wasn't there. No support.

848
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 1: I couldn't get there. But because I'm too afraid of

849
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 1: my time.

850
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 2: I was there for you on the Bills last week.

851
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 2: You couldn't be there for him the Chiefs this week.

852
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: I've been there with you on so many things. We

853
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: got there with it. How many times have we bet

854
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 1: the fucking Jets this year?

855
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 2: So we love it.

856
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 1: We love it so many times. But we haven't been

857
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 1: head to head on a game happening normally. What's been

858
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: happening is like one of us will have an opinion

859
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 1: and the other one will have a strong opinion and

860
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: we will put that game. That's one of ours. This year,

861
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 1: we are head to head on Minnesota and Green Bay.

862
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: I like it. Like it a lot, Atlanta, Washington, this

863
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 1: was your Simon says three factors. Can you remind people

864
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:51,399
Speaker 1: what your three factors were?

865
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: I cannot.

866
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 1: You like what you saw from Penix makes sense. We

867
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 1: like fading the commanders off miracle Win. Oh yeah, we

868
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: don't think Washington's defense is very good.

869
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 2: I agree with all that. So yeah, Simon on Tuesday

870
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: was spot on. But I also just think, like the

871
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 2: more I broke down the film on Penix, that I

872
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:14,280
Speaker 2: had underrated him a little.

873
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 4: Bit, right.

874
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 2: I think I was a little too negative on him

875
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 2: on the Sunday Show, and you were ahead of it, right,

876
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 2: I think you said take it. Whatever it was was

877
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: a five or five and a half Atlanta when it opened. Yeah, yeah,

878
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 2: way too much respect for this Washington team. And only

879
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 2: my only real hesitation was, well, it is a rookie

880
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 2: and a second start going on the road, playing in

881
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 2: a primetime game like that is a tough spot to

882
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 2: be in. But as you quickly mentioned to me, this

883
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,280
Speaker 2: is not your regular rookie. This is a guy who's

884
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 2: been played a lot of years in college, played in

885
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 2: some really big games in college football, and has lived

886
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 2: up to those moments in college. So that does translate

887
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,840
Speaker 2: to the NFL. Like we've seen these quarterbacks who have

888
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 2: played in big time games. I mean, the one that

889
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 2: really stood out to me was Joe Burrow, right, like

890
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 2: he had all the hype in the world coming to LSU,

891
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:57,359
Speaker 2: and you saw immediately this guy had the confidence because

892
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 2: he had played in such big time games. So this

893
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: one another one that's just all about the number, right,

894
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 2: and another game where I swore this would be three

895
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: today just because I did think that the professionals coming

896
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 2: heavy on this one. It's not there, Like there's still

897
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: some four and a halfs popping out there that you

898
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 2: can still get. So yeah, not a slam dunk I

899
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be. But yeah, I love this matchup,

900
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 2: love this number for this team, and just feels like

901
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 2: a game that they could steal and win outright, Like

902
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,360
Speaker 2: it's a washing team that's just going to be inflated,

903
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 2: like we talked about after last week, and I still

904
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 2: think the number is just way too high, Like you're

905
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 2: still getting a great value on this number with this team.

906
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 2: And the achilles heel for that Falcons team was they

907
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 2: had no pass rush. They've kind of had to turn

908
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 2: around the later half of the season, right, They've gotten

909
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,320
Speaker 2: better again after the quarterback, whether that scheme or just

910
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 2: kind of figuring out the rhythm between the defenders because

911
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 2: it was a new D line, right and they kind

912
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 2: of had to figure out to play play with each other.

913
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is Atlanta team. It might be a

914
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 2: spark they needed, right, that QB change that could be

915
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 2: something they needed now the books haven't caught up to

916
00:45:57,880 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 2: it because they don't want to adjust to this new

917
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 2: new quarterback situation. So yeah, I like it. I think

918
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 2: we're getting ahead of it. I think we're beating the

919
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 2: book here on this one.

920
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like it too. And if we can still

921
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 1: get to four and a half in the contest, I

922
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: love it. The thing is, we're not going to get

923
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 1: three and a half. We haven't looked at the contest

924
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: lines yet. It hasn't gone below four. So we're gonna

925
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,479
Speaker 1: get to four and a half. Last game of the week,

926
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: Detroit visiting San Francisco, We're going into the foxhole. This

927
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:25,879
Speaker 1: is gonna be it, you know me, regardless of what's

928
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: going on.

929
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I

930
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 2: commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

931
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: Detroit got down to three yesterday. I betted at three.

932
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 1: I'm assuming you bettered at three.

933
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:37,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

934
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: My last Christmas Day gift, it was the last thing

935
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 1: in my stocking. It's gone back up to three and

936
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 1: a half. It's probably what the contest line is going

937
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 1: to be. I guess I don't care that much.

938
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 4: I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up.

939
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,439
Speaker 4: You're talking about pressure, living pressure. That's what we freaking thrive.

940
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 4: You did it again, you win.

941
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,879
Speaker 1: Detroit wants to go in and dominate, and I think

942
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: San Francisco is trying to figure out what they're going

943
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:02,839
Speaker 1: to do next year.

944
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you. It was all really to me

945
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 2: about what Dan Campbell was gonna say. And if he

946
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:09,959
Speaker 2: came out and was honest and said, yeah, we're gonna

947
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 2: rest guys, I would probably agree with the professionals who

948
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 2: are betting this forty nine ers team and be like, Okay,

949
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 2: now I get why they're hammering this forty nine Ers side.

950
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 2: It went the other way. Campbell is basically saying like, no,

951
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 2: we're not that type of team. I'm having everyone play.

952
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 2: We plan on going up there and dominating and winning

953
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 2: in San Francisco.

954
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 4: So we're road warriors, all right, We're in rare air

955
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 4: right now. All right, we were all supposed to be

956
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 4: here together. Man, we're testing for this, just staying the dwars.

957
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 2: This forty nine ers team still feels like they're getting

958
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 2: respect from the books from last year and every week,

959
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 2: even last week, right they were. I think they opened

960
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 2: as a two and a half point dog and they

961
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 2: closed as a one and a half point favorite.

962
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 1: So it makes no sense.

963
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:53,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's been like that all year that that people, mainly.

964
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: The Jets, them in the Jets the whole freaking season.

965
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's true, though, they just can't help themselves. And

966
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 2: that was very glaring, Like you just said, the fact

967
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 2: that this got down to three, like that's some really

968
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:11,479
Speaker 2: really smart money moving that to three like that. Again,

969
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 2: we talk all the time. It's not that they hit

970
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 2: every book. They might hit one or two books, and

971
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 2: every book follows off of that movement. That's how respected

972
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 2: that money was that came in. As soon as that

973
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell interview happened, it went right back up. So

974
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 2: I think the books don't know what to do with it.

975
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 2: They're they're they're they're kind of in between. And you know,

976
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 2: obviously three was a gift. I'm glad we both got it.

977
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 2: But as long as this is below six, I think

978
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 2: we're getting a great number. Like That's why, again, I

979
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 2: don't know what I'm missing here. I have this at

980
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 2: such a higher game because the only fear with the

981
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 2: tra erright now is going up against good offenses that

982
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 2: can move the ball on them. Right, That's the fear

983
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 2: is they could they can be back toward by teams

984
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 2: now because of the struggling defense they have. But this

985
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 2: ain't that, Like, this is not that type of matchup.

986
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:58,359
Speaker 2: And you know we've seen golf. We always joked about

987
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 2: him outdoors. That hasn't matter yet this year this season either,

988
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,399
Speaker 2: like they've been so dominant because of that run game

989
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:07,720
Speaker 2: that sets up everything through the pass game. That yeah,

990
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 2: like Gibbs, this matchup for him is great. They have

991
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 2: I don't want to say Fred Warner slow, but he's

992
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 2: got He's been playing with major injuries and we've seen

993
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 2: their linebackers have struggled getting on the outside. That's what

994
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 2: they want to do with Gibbs, Like that's just such,

995
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 2: that's literally what they want to do with him setting

996
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 2: up and especially signing up the pass. So uh, yeah,

997
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 2: this this is another game just like last week. I'm

998
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: hoping we don't scare it off of because you know

999
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 2: we talked about last week aainst the Bears. It was

1000
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 2: basically ninety five percent of the tickets, ninety five percent

1001
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 2: of the money was on this this team and the Lions,

1002
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 2: and it went from seven to six and a half

1003
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 2: so we were like, what's going on here? I mean

1004
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 2: they won by what double digits? So I feel like

1005
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 2: it's the same thing here. They're trying to scare us off.

1006
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 2: At Chad, we're in the foxhole. We will not be scared.

1007
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now we're eighty seven percent of the tickets,

1008
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 1: ninety six percent of money on the Lions. Yeah, I

1009
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 1: will not be afraid. This is the year we've been

1010
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 1: seeing it. There's a couple games that we like that

1011
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 1: our road favorites. We're gonna have to decide are they

1012
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 1: both gonna make it in We're talking about the charters

1013
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,359
Speaker 1: and the niners. You know, right now, I think they do.

1014
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 1: If we're looking at the list, if we're taking one

1015
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 1: of them out, it's going to be probably be for

1016
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: the Saints. So it's a very good chance that we

1017
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: end up with two road favorites in the contest. It's

1018
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 1: kind of year it's been. Yeah, how to make adjustments

1019
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: even if it's in week seventeen. Simon, can you name

1020
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:32,720
Speaker 1: the best ticketing app in the United States?

1021
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:34,320
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1022
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:37,640
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1023
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,000
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1024
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1025
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1026
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1027
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1028
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1029
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1030
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,920
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1031
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1032
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1033
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:21,680
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1034
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1035
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,399
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1036
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1037
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1038
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1039
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1040
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1041
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1042
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:55,839
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1043
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 1: money line underdog parlay I bet three six y five

1044
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 1: boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all

1045
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 1: weekend under both game pages. And remember both games are

1046
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,359
Speaker 1: eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo, where

1047
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 1: your money line pick gets marked as a win if

1048
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 1: they take a seventeen point lead, even if they lose.

1049
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: So if you want to bet this, bet it at

1050
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay after a

1051
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 1: spirited debate in the chat during the show, which is

1052
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: what you might have heard when Simon said, no, we

1053
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 1: can't do the Saints. We're going with Carolina as an

1054
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 1: eight eight and a half point dog in Atlanta. All

1055
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 1: NFC South boosted parlay. Find the boost under either the

1056
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:40,879
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1057
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 1: Okay our money line underdog Round Robin.

1058
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:49,720
Speaker 4: There will come up Heayday, hallelu yo, wanna pay day?

1059
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 2: There will come up.

1060
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 1: Payday some day.

1061
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 2: Some day there will come up Heayday.

1062
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 1: Halla lou yo, wanna payday?

1063
00:52:58,280 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 2: I will come up.

1064
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 1: Pay day some Denver, Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota. I know you

1065
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 1: want to put Minnesota in there.

1066
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 2: I do New Orleans? Do you want to go New Orleans?

1067
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 2: Or should we go upside? I mean it pains me

1068
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 2: to say this should we go upside of Dallas in

1069
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 2: case Hurts is out and you know they're might be

1070
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 2: playing Iam booked like this is. I'm just trying to

1071
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,360
Speaker 2: try to find big value. Here is some good big dogs.

1072
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 1: Whatever you want to do, so, I mean, you clearly

1073
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 1: don't want to do you clearly don't want to do

1074
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 1: New Orleans.

1075
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 2: I mean they're plus one hundred Dallas is plus two seventy.

1076
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get that, but we don't like New Orleans.

1077
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:43,840
Speaker 1: We know that there's not going to be anywhere in

1078
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: the field, so we know what we're getting into. It's

1079
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 1: like that scene in Airplane, you know a movie that

1080
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 1: only people in my age remember, where there's like a

1081
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 1: debate between two newscasters and he's like Shane, I they

1082
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 1: bought their ticket, they knew what they were getting into.

1083
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 1: I say, let them crash. That's kind of what we're

1084
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:07,760
Speaker 1: doing when we bet on New Orleans.

1085
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 2: All right, we could do the Orleans and you love it. Yeah,

1086
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 2: give one the chat.

1087
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, g e A u X go Saints, let's do it.

1088
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 1: Who are your biggest bets right now? Buddy?

1089
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:29,240
Speaker 2: Uh? I mean, honestly, I've been I've been pretty lacking

1090
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:33,840
Speaker 2: just because of the holiday I would say Detroit. I

1091
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:35,799
Speaker 2: went pretty heavy on the minus three. Even at minus

1092
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 2: three and a half, I've honestly betted up. I'm feeling

1093
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:40,839
Speaker 2: very chalky with that one. Panthers, as you know, eight

1094
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 2: eight and a half, whatever I could get my hands on,

1095
00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:46,839
Speaker 2: I was betting that. Now that we're here, I feel

1096
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,840
Speaker 2: like I'm gonna be heavy on teachers this week. Like Eagles,

1097
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 2: taking the Eagles down, taking Buffalo down, taking the Colts down.

1098
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 2: I really like all those favorites just just to win

1099
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 2: those games. And it just feels like that kind of

1100
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 2: week hit that point. I mean, I haven't already talked

1101
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 2: about it. Basically, dogs are only when to outright twenty

1102
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 2: five percent, maybe even less right now since it was

1103
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,880
Speaker 2: like week eight or seven. So it's been brutal, brutal

1104
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 2: if you're a dog better, But if you're someone who

1105
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 2: loves doing teasers, they've been hitting like the chalk has

1106
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 2: just been hitting. So not as heavy on the dogs

1107
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 2: this week as I usually am. Been leading more towards

1108
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 2: the favorites in Week seventeen.

1109
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 1: All right, before we get to evan reminder, if you're

1110
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 1: participating in the favorites, pick them contest your picks must

1111
00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:30,719
Speaker 1: be in by one pm on Saturday, not Sunday. All

1112
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,799
Speaker 1: Saturday games are in the contest this week. Everybody must

1113
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:38,280
Speaker 1: make picks by one pm on Saturday. Get those picks

1114
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 1: in one pm Saturday, not Sunday. For Week seventeen, we've

1115
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 1: mentioned him so much, it's time to finally have him

1116
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:51,319
Speaker 1: on the show. Evan Abrams take us through it.

1117
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams.

1118
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 5: We're finished talking, well, chaed I'm still waiting to try

1119
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 5: to fait you're out exactly what we were discussing earlier,

1120
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:04,040
Speaker 5: but I can give you some information.

1121
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 1: Basically, what I wanted to know was are dogs of

1122
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 1: plus two or plus two and a half covering as

1123
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 1: frequently this season as dogs of plus three or three

1124
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 1: and a half, because that is becoming so much more

1125
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,560
Speaker 1: of a key number. And I want to know if

1126
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 1: we're shooting ourselves in the foot by not considering games

1127
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:27,759
Speaker 1: that get to two and a half because we don't

1128
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:30,520
Speaker 1: want to play anything below three, and that might not

1129
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: be the right answer anymore.

1130
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 2: Got it.

1131
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 5: I looked up the favorites part, so I'll just invert

1132
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 5: it so it looks like teams to close plus two

1133
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 5: and plus two and a half are sixteen and nineteen

1134
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:47,840
Speaker 5: against the spread. Times to close plus three and plus

1135
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:51,240
Speaker 5: three and a half. Here's some fun math, twenty five

1136
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 5: thirty one and three against the spread.

1137
00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 1: Wow, so both are loser numbers.

1138
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:02,279
Speaker 5: Both are losing numbers right now. The biggest the thing

1139
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:04,160
Speaker 5: I thought was interesting, and I did it from a

1140
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 5: favorites point of view, misunderstanding a little bit, but it

1141
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:10,399
Speaker 5: looks like a minus two for favorites. Minus three and

1142
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 5: minus three and a half have been above five hundred.

1143
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 5: The only number below five hundred has been minus two

1144
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:17,400
Speaker 5: and a half, which Simon seems to talk about all

1145
00:57:17,440 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 5: the time. But it has been a loser from the

1146
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 5: favorites point of view this year eleven and fourteen.

1147
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,640
Speaker 1: Wait, but you just said favorites.

1148
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 5: So everything I gave you was underdogs, right.

1149
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:29,280
Speaker 1: But if minus two and a half is a.

1150
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 5: Minus two, went eight and two against the spread this year,

1151
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:37,720
Speaker 5: So teams to close minus two eight to two ats

1152
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 5: minus two and a half eleven and fourteen, I.

1153
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 1: Say, so you add them up. It's still two to

1154
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:44,560
Speaker 1: two and a half is a loser for the dogs.

1155
00:57:44,840 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 1: But two has been a winner.

1156
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, correct for obviously a small sample size in a

1157
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 5: single season, so interesting.

1158
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, let's.

1159
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 2: Keep rolling here.

1160
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 5: So picking your games this week to try to give

1161
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 5: you a little bit of a boost some you know,

1162
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 5: confidence was interesting looking at the scripts from Tuesday, but

1163
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 5: I think I did alright here. So we're gonna start

1164
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:06,080
Speaker 5: with Denver. So you mentioned the great bon Nick stat

1165
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 5: earlier that Raybond gave you. I got one more for you.

1166
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:13,120
Speaker 5: So Cincinnati's defense are sacking opponent qbs about two point

1167
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 5: eight percent, which is bottom third of the league this year.

1168
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:20,440
Speaker 5: Bon Nicks eight to no ats versus defenses with an

1169
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 5: opposing SAP percentage of four percent or less. He is

1170
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 5: two and four ats with a number above that four

1171
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 5: percent with a little more pressure.

1172
00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 2: So great.

1173
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, it just rolls exactly into it.

1174
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 2: I thought, I thought that was perfect. So that worked

1175
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 2: out well, That worked out well.

1176
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 1: Dimond's leaning in. He feels so good about that.

1177
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 2: I honestly hammer Denver.

1178
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:44,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, we need we need to bet on a dog,

1179
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 1: all right.

1180
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 2: This one was a little bit more tough.

1181
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 5: So you like the Saints this week. I looked up

1182
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:53,640
Speaker 5: the stat and then I'll throw two trends at you,

1183
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 5: which kind of.

1184
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 1: Fall right in line.

1185
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 5: But you asked if like the Raiders should be favorites

1186
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:00,959
Speaker 5: in this game as kind of like a question, here's

1187
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 5: a great one. So the Raiders are coming off a

1188
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 5: game where they are where they broke a ten game

1189
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 5: straight up losing streak. They would be the first team

1190
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 5: since December of nineteen sixty eight to be favored in

1191
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 5: a game after breaking a ten plus game straight up

1192
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,960
Speaker 5: losing streak within the same season. So in this situation,

1193
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:20,480
Speaker 5: when the team out of nowhere wins a game shockingly,

1194
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 5: they usually just fall back to where they are. They

1195
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:25,240
Speaker 5: don't end up as a road favorite in this situation,

1196
00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:27,440
Speaker 5: which is exactly what the Raiders are sitting in. So

1197
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 5: maybe the line is wrong. And then you've kind of

1198
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 5: mentioned this before. So teams after getting shut out thirty

1199
00:59:33,200 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 5: and fifteen against the spread a sixty seven percent last decade,

1200
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 5: and then teams with a win percentage below forty percent

1201
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:42,000
Speaker 5: who just lost by thirty plus ninety and sixty six

1202
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 5: fifty eight percent since two thousand and three. So yeah,

1203
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 5: like the.

1204
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 2: Saints are the right historical side here.

1205
00:59:48,520 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 5: You're just picking two garbage cans, you know, flying down

1206
00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 5: the river and hoping that one of them goes faster

1207
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 5: than the other, uh okay, last one, Bryce Young, I

1208
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 5: looked into this because I think we all kind of

1209
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 5: believe what you guys have been preaching. So here's his improvement.

1210
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 5: So he's been using his legs lately in his first

1211
01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 5: three starts, and remember Owen three ats and that eight

1212
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 5: scrambles thirty four yards Week nine on, which has been

1213
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:16,920
Speaker 5: this hot streak for him, twenty two scrambles, one hundred

1214
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 5: and ninety yards and three touchdowns. He's also been much

1215
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 5: more accurate, especially downfield. So his first three starts he

1216
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 5: had a negative completion percentage over expected. Now that is

1217
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 5: based off depth of throw, which is how the stack

1218
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 5: gets correlated. That was second worst in the NFL in

1219
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 5: the first eight weeks. Week nine on, he's now top

1220
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:37,640
Speaker 5: of the league in that stat, to the top half

1221
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 5: of the league in that stat. And then finally, his

1222
01:00:40,240 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 5: catchable ball percentage, which just gives the offense more of

1223
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 5: a chance, is up almost five full percentage points and

1224
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 5: his turnover worthy throws down two point six percent between

1225
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 5: those two periods. So, honestly, Bryce Young playing better and

1226
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 5: it's showing up in the stats because Carolina now six

1227
01:00:57,040 --> 01:01:00,120
Speaker 5: to one ATS in the last seven games. Best Moor

1228
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,120
Speaker 5: in the NFL over that span, and they started the

1229
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:05,919
Speaker 5: year zero and three ats. So sometimes quarterback play doesn't

1230
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 5: exactly show up in the results. It's front and center here, guys.

1231
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:11,840
Speaker 1: You know who else has a high catchable ball percentage?

1232
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 1: Tommy John Simon. I'm feeling better and better. I can't

1233
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 1: wait to put the Saints in our top five. As

1234
01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three

1235
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 1: sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers

1236
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets when

1237
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,

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01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to

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01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those

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01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

1241
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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary Bet three

1242
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 1: six five. It must be twenty one or older in

1243
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:49,480
Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

1244
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1245
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

1246
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return

1247
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 1: with our next step, So do the favorites. On the

1248
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 1: Action Network you two page Sunday night, seven thirty pm

1249
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 1: Eastern to recap week seventeen. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

1250
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe me with

1251
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:13,640
Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift

1252
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 1: until next time. I Love you.

1253
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:27,960
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1254
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:30,760
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1255
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler.

1256
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:41,480
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

1257
01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:45,720
Speaker 2: Let's play roulette.