WEBVTT - Countdown to Inflation Begins 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.119 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.680 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Drag ourselves 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:51.239 back to the FED right now? Julia Cornado's perfect to 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:55.600 do that. President of macro Policy perspectives a major duty 0:00:55.600 --> 0:00:59.440 at BMP Perry Bay in the trenches of the financial crisis. 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:04.200 Is well, Julie, I've gotten off the beat. Does the 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.160 economic data this week? 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:09.839 Game change? A data dependent FED? 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:16.200 Probably? Game change is too strong because they're meeting next 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:18.840 week and we already know that they're not going to 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:22.880 do anything, but they are going to give us some guidance. 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.280 They are going to give us a new forecast, and 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:28.600 they're going to we'll get a press conference, and so 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:32.200 it might help set the tone as to you know, 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:34.840 when we heard from Chaer Powell last week, he said, 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:38.199 it just needs a little bit more, just a little 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.919 bit more progress to confirm they're on the right track 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.600 and build their confidence before cutting rates. That doesn't sound 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.120 like a very high bar, but if we get a 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:50.280 setback in inflation, he might sound a little you know, 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:54.960 more on the stern side us versus on the hopeful side. 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:57.720 And now your inflation report for the day, and that 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:01.480 I followed carefully. The loadstone of my house, which is 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:03.880 a price of dog food. You know what it costs 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:06.440 you what it cost to do vet Bill and Kennell 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.680 fee up with a proper fancy upper east side dog 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.519 food has gone from twenty eight dollars to forty four 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:16.720 dollars over a good five to six pandemic years as well. 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:22.760 Juliet Coronado an update from doctor Coronado on the CPI. 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.880 Look, we have made a lot of progress, but in 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:29.400 the first quarter of the year we often get some 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:33.240 firmer prints. We saw that in January. We are going 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:36.440 to see probably a little bit more of that tomorrow 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:40.880 in the February report. We're looking for a point three 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:43.880 on core. That would still bring the annual rate down 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:47.320 a couple kits, but it would lead the three month 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:51.120 annualized rate up, So it would be kind of neither 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:53.480 here nor there. I think in terms of the FED, 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:57.799 it would not be particularly worrisome because you know, year 0:02:57.880 --> 0:02:59.960 on year, we're still making progress, but it would all 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:02.720 also say there's no rush. And then you take that 0:03:02.840 --> 0:03:06.320 with the Friday employment report. You know, I think that's 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:10.040 going to matter more Tom, the the jobs data. If 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:15.040 that shows signs of you know, the perfect goldilocks labor 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:17.960 conditions are starting to cool off a little bit, that 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.200 might give the FED more urgency versus if that continues. 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.080 And I would say Friday's employment report it was a 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.720 mixed bag. You know, the jobs number was strong, lots 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:30.959 of downward revisions, and a pretty notable uptick of the 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:34.800 unemployment rate. So you know, I think they're kind of in, 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:37.440 you know, where we're getting closer to where those risks 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:38.400 are getting balanced. 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:41.680 And we'll talk about this on my podcast out now, 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:43.520 Single best idea look for that. 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:46.160 Later this afternoon, I'm going to talk to. 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:51.560 Doctor cornetto about annualized three month annualized twelve month annualized, 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:53.080 six months annualized. 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:55.960 This, I know is foreign to you, Damien. Annualized is 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:57.520 very analzed thing. 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:00.680 Well, here for me show I mean, for me, it's 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:03.240 not just about it's not just about inflation in the US. 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:05.600 It's about inflation abroad. I mean, this week we also 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:07.720 see Brazil, Germany, India. I think at the end of 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:09.920 the week we see France, Italy, Poland. I mean, Julia 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:13.200 talk to us a little bit about inflation dynamics outside 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:14.640 of the United States. 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.719 Well, that's an excellent point. I mean, we have seen 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:24.360 progress globally, and you know, it's sort of widely thought 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:28.040 that China is now a disinflationary force, given how much 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:31.960 how lackluster their growth is and how much capacity they have. 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:36.799 So globally, you know, we are actually in a much 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:40.120 better place than we were this time last year. And 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:44.960 it is across you know, across regions. So again we're 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:48.479 not back down to pre pandemic, but we're certainly moving 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:51.920 in the right direction. And most central banks, not just 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.919 the FED, with the exception of the BOG of course 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:59.920 always the outlier, but ult central banks are considering moving 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:05.719 off a very high spot rate. So that you know 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:07.799 in acknowledgment of some of this progress. 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:10.560 Well, Julia, we also see inflation data out of Sweden 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:12.520 on Wednesday, and as we know, the RIX Bank might 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:14.560 be the very first developed market central bank to move. 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:16.160 I think the market's present pricing is something like a 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.920 sixty percent probability of a move by may you know, 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:21.359 forget about inflation though, I mean you mentioned Japan. I 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:23.479 want to talk about Japan and what we're seeing in 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:26.640 Japan ahead of this March nineteenth meeting. What do you 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:27.240 expect there? 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:33.120 Well, you know, look, Japan has been both kind of 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:39.640 gradually pivoting away from its ultra easy stance, but very 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:45.120 very patient in doing so. So yeah, so, so you know, 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:49.200 will we will we actually see a move? I am 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:52.680 not the Bank of Japan expert. I think it's you know, 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:56.520 they're going to keep evolving and rotating. Whether this is 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:00.960 the meeting, that's that's I'm certainly less component to put 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:02.080 a stake in the ground on. 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:03.680 That, right, Julie. 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:05.640 I take it back to the data this week in 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:09.760 retail sales, the consumers sixty eight sixty nine seventy seventy 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:14.800 eight percent in my household of GDP is is well, 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:18.360 tie in your GDP call right now with the actual 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:21.320 retail sales statistics three month annualize that we've. 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:24.039 Been seeing, the consumer is buoyant. Am I right? 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:29.120 Well, we saw some retrenchment in the January retail sales. 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:34.320 Remember we saw a decline in core retail sales. I 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.760 would say consumers have really kind of gone back to 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:42.040 their pre pandemic norms in the sense that they're spending. 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.000 They've got jobs, they've got income, and they're spending. But 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:49.040 what we hear, what we see in the inflation data, 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:51.919 what we hear anecdotally the Fed's Beige Books certainly shows 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:54.840 it right right. The consumers are price sensitive again. They 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:56.560 want to deal, Tom, they want to deal. 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.159 Okay, Julie, I'm running out of time. I don't mean 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:02.679 to be rude, but the it's root Monday in RESI, 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:05.479 doctor Cornado, is you're coming in with like a two 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:09.120 percent real GDP and you pop on disinflation and all 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.280 of a sudden, are you modeling out a subpart nominal GDP? 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:18.400 You know, Actually, we're kind of optimistic on the productivity 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:21.400 side of things, so we actually do think that this 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:25.320 productivity rebound is not just a one off that it's 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:29.120 a better trend this cycle. So we've got GDP running 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:32.680 around two percent with a FED funds rate at five 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.360 and a half percent. That's not too bad, right, And 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:39.000 it's also the beauty of it is that it's non inflationary. 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:43.240 So this is solid growth that isn't necessarily inflationary that 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:47.520 brings nominal GDP slowly gradually back down to the four 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:51.440 and a half five percent zone, the sweet spot where 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:54.240 the Fed wants to see it. I think that's where 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:55.800 we're heading in the first half of this year. 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:57.920 Yeah, I was watching the Oscars last night, Julia, and 0:07:57.920 --> 0:07:59.800 the answer is, nobody's on speaking terms. 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.400 Are you in Constance Hunter? And speaking terms? Is it 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:04.120 working out at macropolicy? 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:08.880 And I speak all the time? Really, we taxed, we speak, 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:11.160 we zoom, we do it all Tom all the four 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:11.800 Very good. 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:13.960 I saw a Constance Hunter with the Consul on Foreign 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:17.640 Relations the other day. Good to see macro policy perspectives 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:19.280 out on the streets of New York. 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:33.400 Julia Coronado there right now, and this is great. 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:35.439 It's sort of like the week after the employment it's 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.679 a little less there's some economic data this week, but 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:40.760 it's time to just like reassess the markets. 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:43.440 We did that with Brian Nick, with Francois Trahan and 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:44.120 now joining. 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.200 Us Michael Purvis of Tall Back and as well Damien's 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:49.200 got You know, folks, you got to see this in 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:51.960 the studio. You really can't see this on YouTube, but 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.200 you know, it's like Blomberg Business of Sports. You're worse 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:59.240 than Scarlet's bring in like thirty pages of notes. 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:01.360 I do, and I highlight everything. I'm a very big 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:02.800 young The only note. 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:06.680 I have is my coffee and donut message. There go, Lisa, 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:09.640 thank you. I mean look, I mean it's like Lisa's. 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.960 Taking a photo here for social of your When are 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:13.360 you doing this during the weekend? 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:15.920 I mean no, Actually I tried to wake up early 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:18.120 on the Monday morning. Okay, have a cup of coffee, 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:19.920 come in early and get ready to care. 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:20.920 You're building in purpose. 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:24.400 But I'm talking to the architect from Columbia first, I mean, 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:26.440 Michael Purvers. How many people do we have a studied 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.800 architecture in school? What in God's name did they do 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:33.560 to Central Park South? They got billionaire's row. You get 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:38.040 this gorgeous tapestry in Manhattan like Paris? Yes, and instead 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:42.280 we put six seven, eight tall pointy skyscrapers. So Ken 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:47.079 Griffith can wave to me, yeah, we destroyed the Manhattan skyline, right. 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:49.559 Do you remember when the Aol Time Warner Building was 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:53.160 being built, a huge controversy. Look at that building now compared. 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:56.199 To those right buildings building, the. 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:59.240 Empire State Building is now looking cute, right, and the 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:00.000 Christier Building. 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:00.960 I look in promortion. 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:03.560 But to you, seriously, to you that have really studied 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:07.400 the art of this of architecture in Columbia, is the 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:10.040 solution that we have to build ten more of those tall, 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:12.679 ginormous skyscrapers to balance it out. 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:16.800 Apparently someone in the city government decided it was you know, 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:18.240 I guess it brings in a lot of money and 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:19.920 it pays other bills. 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:23.680 But I think, yeah, no, I mean, look, you know, 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:25.520 we could talk about architecture all we want here, but 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.080 for me, it's all about the architecture of financial markets. 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:33.080 And within the architecture tom is volatility, which is you 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:34.959 like that? So I mean look for me, I mean 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.360 I look at volatility, but in all its forms, Michael, 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:39.679 as you do. You know there's fxvall which is really 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:42.400 really low. You've got equity ball and equity ball appears 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.080 to be ticking up. And during the break we were 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.079 talking a little bit about some of these ETFs, these 0:10:46.080 --> 0:10:49.800 buy rite ETFs, these these kind of vol embedded ETFs. 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:51.120 I wonder if you could talk just a little bit 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:53.320 about what you're seeing there, the flows that have been 0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:55.200 There's been a lot of flows going into that type 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.520 of product. How do you think that's impacting market? Is 0:10:57.520 --> 0:10:58.960 that suppressing ball of current levels? 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:01.679 Well, I I think it does until it doesn't, right, 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.240 But you know, just as zoom, you know, step back 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:05.880 for a second. If you look at the rate of 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:10.000 cash equity volumes over the last fifteen twenty years, it's 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:11.960 been flat. If you look at the rate of option 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:14.480 at like just S and P options or all the options, 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.440 it has been growing eight or nine percent every year, 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:19.160 and then over the last couple of years take that 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:21.559 up to you know, twenty five thirty percent. It has 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:26.240 been just extreme. And when you have this huge rise 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:30.079 of derivatives layered on top of very static cash volumes, 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:33.520 you're going to get weird distortions to market structure. Yeah. There, 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:36.439 and you know it was just when it was it 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:40.400 four years ago, twenty eighteen. Oh my god, six years ago, Jesus, 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:44.520 time flies where you had the XIV that shortfall ETF 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:48.760 famously implode, and you know the Vicks the short squeeze there, 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:52.200 the short of the short if you will, you know, 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:53.920 it drove the VIX up to like, you know, forty 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.160 six in a heartbeat, right, And I think with all 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:57.720 these products you have to be aware of them. Some 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:00.719 of them are actually pretty don't have as much of 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:01.960 an impact on market structure. 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:03.560 So I mean, can it happen again? We were talking 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:05.360 about the dispersion trade. I mean, what would it take 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:06.560 to get the Vics above twenty? 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:10.520 Well, I you know, probably it starts that, you know, 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:13.240 the dispersion trade just you know, it's been working great 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:14.440 for the last year and a half. 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:15.920 It looks what is that for audience? 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:16.760 Yeah, yeah, so. 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:20.400 Sorry, you know sorry. 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:21.880 The dispersion trade. 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.680 Is well, basically, it's it's it's it's it's a trade 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:26.960 that did some option traders put on where you're long 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.600 a basket of single stock volatilities and you're hedging that 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:33.840 against index volatility, right, and and everything works great because 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.040 you know, like over the last year, you know, you 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:39.240 think about it like you have a huge dispersion of returns. Right, 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.760 you had the Magnificent seven doing seventy five percent, you 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:45.920 had the SPX equal waight up fourteen percent. That's a 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.360 that's a recipe for like one stock or one sector 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:49.080 is going to do well. 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:50.760 I want to rip up the scripture. 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:52.920 I just put this out on YouTube on live chat 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:58.880 because you're expert at this. Michael Purvis on the market structure, 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.319 the distortions of market structure. 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.199 What is the market structure of bitcoin? 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:09.120 Oh? The uh well, I. 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:12.000 Think you. 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.559 I was going to make equip that, you know, bitcoin 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:18.960 going rallies to fresh time highs as it just does, 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:21.920 doesn't make a sound, you know today, whereas you know 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.000 just a few years ago, you know, would have famously 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.400 broke twenty thousand, and every institutional investor had to have 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:28.480 in a view on it. 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.120 Is it a market structure or is it contrived? 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.000 I think it's contrived personally. I I don't really way 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.080 too far into the debate, but I do think there's 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.960 a religious element to it, whether it's it's kind of binary, 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.839 I don't I don't, you know, I don't really write 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.480 on bitcoin other than pure technically, and you know, look 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.360 at the technicals have certainly looked better here, whether it 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.160 really you know, there Tom right now, there's there's probably 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:54.199 a whole bunch of biotech stocks out there that you've 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.480 never heard of that have gone up three acts in 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.559 the last six months or whatever. You know. Like I, 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:03.760 I do wonder whether whether bitcoin as a mainstream ass 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:07.760 a class that thesis is is is really behind us. Right, 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:09.480 So maybe it goes to two hundred thousand, but does 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:10.199 anyone really care? 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:12.040 Well, Michael, I mean, you know, I'm an emerging market 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.200 fixed income guys. So because I cover fixed income, I 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.920 like to look at foreign exchange. So let's talk about 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:19.800 FX fall. And you know, for me, when I look 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:21.560 at FX fall and I look out at you know, 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:23.920 you know tenors you know called risk reversals that look 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:25.960 at six months, one year, it's all about euro dollar 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:28.160 that's the center of gravity in the FX universe. But 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.600 over the short short term it's been a lot about 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:32.200 dollar yen. I wonder if you could tell us a 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.680 little bit about what your thoughts are heading into this week, 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:36.920 heading into next week with the BOJ what's going on 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:37.600 with dollar yen? 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:39.840 Yeah, Look, I mean the the end certainly has been 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.000 one of the more interesting cases in the correct As 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:47.160 you know, Damien one of the more interesting FX pairs 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:50.640 to be looking at. And I would also sort of 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.200 note if you looked at goldfalls finally started picking up 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.800 with his things, and there is a correlation. You know, 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:57.680 you look at dollar yen and you look at you 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.640 look at dollar gold and those two and to map 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.000 together pretty well here. And I think, you know, certainly 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.720 some of the gold bulls would argue that there is ah, 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.280 there really is a It feels that, you know, look, 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.320 you're not supposed to be with with with with rate hikes, 0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.240 still rate cuts rather still to come, but not coming 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:18.000 that My god, Gold's playing. 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.520 Purvose expertise. Which is market structure? 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:27.120 Which is gold is central bank buying versus retail's disinterest. 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.040 That's sort of the zeitgeist out there. What's the market 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.640 structure of the Magnificent seven? Because they you know, they 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:37.240 pulse on the Bloomberg folks might now Damien is doing math, 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:38.360 purvis is. 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:39.000 Expert at this. 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.880 Lisa and I are just looking at the blinky red 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:44.680 green trying to figure out if there's more red than green. 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:47.240 It's really scientific. Okay, what's the. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:51.600 Market structure of Nvidia or apples, you know, disappointing. 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:53.880 Here are they working in an normative way? 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.120 Well, look, I mean I think, you know, broadly speaking 0:15:57.160 --> 0:15:59.040 for the magnificent I don't know what do you call 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.400 it four these days? You know, But basically, I think 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:08.720 after two or three years of massive valuation volatility and 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:11.360 sort of trying to settle into the you know, where 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.200 the long run interest rates likely to be, I think 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:17.120 that process is largely behind us. So what I'm saying, Tom, 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:19.600 is that you kind of followed the earnings growth. If 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:23.000 the earnings growth is there in a cyclical stock, it's 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.040 going to do well. If the earning growth is better, 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:29.280 it continues to be outstanding in nvidio it's and video 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:30.000 will get bid. 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.320 Twenty seconds the Purvios SPX target here with this great one. 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:34.440 We've nailed it on that. 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:38.040 Yeah, well look, you know, I officially from December, I'm 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:43.160 at forty nine hundred. I think, you know, fifty five 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.720 hundred or even higher. I even think that if the 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:50.920 if the earnings hold up, you could even at some 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:52.840 point this year touch six k. You won't stay there, 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:53.880 but I think you could touch it. 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:54.640 So there we go. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:55.680 Do we get that on tape? 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:56.080 Richie. 0:16:56.120 --> 0:17:00.480 We get that on tape Purvis with the Yardennis six thousand, Michael, 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:07.840 that was great and international relations, and we've been honored 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:11.520 Evangelist stent On with us recently on mister Putin. It 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:15.840 pays to go with people that have decades of experience. 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:20.440 Aeral Cohen is at the Atlantic Council and very quietly 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:22.880 has put together a rezumi. 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:24.280 That is extraordinary. 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:28.280 You can go back to his book Russian Imperialism, Development 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.360 and Crisis from just a few years ago to really 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.360 get a foundation of his work on what we observe 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:38.080 out of Moscow. Aeral Cohen, as simply as I can, 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:43.199 what is the imperialism the Russian imperialism of Vladimir Putin? 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:48.760 Well, good morning. First of all, I'm a great fan. 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:53.640 As you know, Russian imperialism didn't start with Leazimir Putin. 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:56.200 Russian imperialism started. 0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:04.200 In the fifteenth century when the Russians finally shook off 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:10.960 the domination of the heirs or the grandchildren of Jengi's Han. 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.960 They were occupied for over two hundred and eighty years 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:21.359 by the Mongols. They were pretty good subjects. 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:26.360 They paid their taxes in pelts, in hers. 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:32.040 Of animals, they gave their wives and daughters to the occupiers, 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:38.160 and it was the princess intermarried. So there was sort 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:42.440 of a commingling of the Mongols and later known as 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:47.320 the Tatars with the Russians. And then finally they shook 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:51.360 them off. The Mongol Empire fell apart, and one thing 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:56.080 they got from their occupiers is how to run a 0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:59.960 centralized state. And a lot of elements of the Mongol 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:07.760 took from the Chinese were now in the Administrative government 0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:11.199 DNA of the Russians. And they never stopped sits. So 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:15.520 for many, many years, for centuries, they would expand and expand. 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:16.919 They captured. 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:22.440 The peoples of the Vulgar Basin, of the Eurals Siberia, 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:25.040 and they built the largest country on Earth and now 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.480 puts it decided to put it together after the Soviet Union. 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:30.640 Well, okay, let's Damien jump in here. 0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:32.240 Well, I just wanted to know, I mean, like, we're 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:34.159 talking Russia here. But you know what's interesting is we 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.200 have an election in Russia that's coming up this week, right, 0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:40.480 and we have some interesting happenings, specifically regarding the Valdi's 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:43.639 constituency and his wife and the role she's playing and 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:45.720 how I believe they're trying to get people to show 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.080 up for the election at certain points in time. I 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:49.280 wonder if you can just give us a little bit 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:53.119 of color about what's going on on the ground within Russia. 0:19:54.480 --> 0:20:00.600 First of all, Russia had two very brief periods of 0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:05.840 voting in democracy, and after that they reverted to this 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:11.399 Taarist pattern. Whether it was a red saw his general 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:16.720 secretary like Lenin Stalin. You probably remember Brezhnev, the guy 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:22.080 with the eyebrows. And then so the democracy after the 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:25.000 Tsarist regim collapse, the Emperor Nicolas. 0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:26.959 The second eventually was executed with his family. 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:32.200 That lasted all eight or nine months, nine months under 0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:37.760 under Yeltsen, Putsin's predecessor, who appointed which it wasn't. 0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:40.840 Really elected by popular will. 0:20:40.920 --> 0:20:44.120 He was first appointed as a heir apparent, and then 0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:49.920 they organized the elections dismantled doctor Cole. 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:51.439 Just because of time, we got to get this in. 0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:54.439 I think it's really important. What is the size or. 0:20:54.359 --> 0:21:00.000 Impact of the Navalni constituency within Russia on a percentage basis? 0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:01.040 How big are they? 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:11.520 Oh gosh, nobody knows. First, second, it's small. Third, Sometimes miraculously, 0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:16.479 these events and these people have oversized influence. So I 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:20.520 do believe that both my good friend buddysniaimself who was 0:21:20.640 --> 0:21:24.760 murdered in twenty fifteen, and Alixei Navili, who was murdered 0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:29.080