1 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptors Show. 2 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,959 Speaker 1: I am sitting here today with George Gammon. He has 3 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 1: taken the internet, taken YouTube by storm recently with his 4 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: super cool videos with the white boards. If you haven't 5 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: seen him, you need to, so I'll linked to it 6 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 1: down below. UM. Has this an amazing way to take 7 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: these complex subjects and make them very easy to understand, 8 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: especially with the graphics. And I'm super excited to have 9 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: you George, thanks for joining. Hey, thanks for having me. 10 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: I'm I'm excited to have a chat and a lot 11 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: to talk about that for sure, so much to talk about. 12 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: And you know, I've been I've been doing that analysis 13 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: and commentary for quite a long time and sometimes you 14 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 1: get these like boring patches, but not right now, there's 15 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: more than enough to go around. UM. I've been watching 16 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: your video those and the last several videos you've done. 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: They're all, you know, talking about the topic of the moment, 18 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: which is the bailouts, the stimulus, the unlimited you know, 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: quantitative easy and etcetera. And uh, you've really been breaking 20 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: down like all these like acronyms that the FED keeps 21 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: coming up with. Alright, maybe tell us about some of 22 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:24,479 Speaker 1: these acronyms and kind of what that means. Ah jeez. Well, 23 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 1: the bottom line is they're just trying to buy everything 24 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: in sight. So I think if you start from there, 25 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: it's much easier to understand any of the I call 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: them four letters solutions, but that you know, the news 27 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: changes so quickly. First it was all the four letter 28 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: quote unquote solutions that they had back in two thousand 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: and eight, but now they've added more and they're now 30 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: coming up with these five letter solutions that even the 31 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: letters are expanding, just like their balance sheet. So but 32 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: really what each program, let's call it, is all about 33 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: is just giving the FED an excuse to either lend 34 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: money directly to corporations or to buy their equity or 35 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 1: buy their existing debt. It's really what it's all about. 36 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: So the the endgame, I think is the FED is 37 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 1: going to have stocks, bonds that they're going to own 38 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: a lot of the equity and debt of the S 39 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: and P five hundred. So it's all going from the 40 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: private sector onto their balance sheet, if you think about 41 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: it from their standpoint, makes sense because our economy is 42 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: really all about asset bubbles, debt, and confidence that's what 43 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,679 Speaker 1: our economy is built on. And the FED I think 44 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: knows that, and they won't admit it, but I think 45 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 1: they understand it well. So they understand they have to 46 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 1: keep those asset bubbles inflated at all costs. So if 47 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: you're just thinking this through, like what would I do, Well, 48 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: I want to take all of the assets that can 49 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: get a haircut, and I want to put them on 50 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,679 Speaker 1: my balance sheet because I never have to sell. Yeah, 51 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 1: the FET doesn't have a profit and loss, so if 52 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: they get let's let's not give away the punch line 53 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,679 Speaker 1: before we build it up a little bit here. Well, 54 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: I could go on for hours about that. But as 55 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: far as the specific programs that achieve this objective, you 56 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: want me to touch on that, No, we don't. I mean, 57 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: we don't need to dig into each one. But it's 58 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: interesting because you're kind of showing how they've been adding 59 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 1: more and more and more. As you said, they're actually 60 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 1: getting the acronyms are getting longer. Yeah, it seems like 61 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: basically each one gives them more power, more leeway. Correct, 62 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: At first, they were um allowing the primary dealers to 63 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: buy assets and they were kind of loaning them. Now 64 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: they're like, shoot, why go through them, Let's just buy 65 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: it ourselves. Exactly. That's a great point. That's a great point. 66 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: That's the biggest difference from what I've seen between what 67 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: they first came out with and what they've come out 68 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: with more recently. The first thing was just the primary 69 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: dealer credit facility, and that's just saying, okay, primary dealer, 70 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,119 Speaker 1: whatever is on your balance sheet, will take it from 71 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: you and we'll give you a quote unquote loan. But 72 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 1: if you look at the the fine print, it's yeah, 73 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: it's alone, but it's at zero percent interest and most 74 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: likely they can roll it over indefinitely. So is that 75 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: really alone? And then excuse me, so they say that's 76 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: to support the primary dealers, but why couldn't the primary dealers? 77 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: Was one point five trillion and access reserves actually be 78 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: proactive and go into the market by the stocks for 79 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: the Federal reserve, and then the Fed gives them this 80 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: loan at zero percent interests that they can roll over, uh, indefinitely. 81 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: So that kind of gets them around the laws that 82 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 1: were set up. But to your point, the new abbreviations 83 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: or acronyms they've come up with, these five letter duties. 84 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 1: They just allow the FED to go straight into the 85 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 1: market and give credit, extend credit to a lot of entities, 86 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 1: not just corporations. But it gives them, uh like they 87 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 1: just call them investors, and I don't know who these 88 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: people are, but it gives financing to investors. And keep 89 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: in mind, this is a nonrecourse loan. So again, is 90 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 1: this really alone here, So they're giving this financing to 91 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: investors for them to continue to buy asset and securities. Well, 92 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: these asset back securities have student loan debt, credit card debt, 93 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: they have subprime auto loans, they have SBA loans. So 94 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: in essence, although that's not technically going onto the FED 95 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: balance sheet, it's going onto a balance sheet of an 96 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: entity that really doesn't have to sell and prior and 97 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 1: things change so quickly. If you would have said last 98 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 1: week the FED would go directly and buy the corporate 99 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: bond market or something like that, people would have said, no, no, no, 100 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 1: they can't do that because of this stipulation or this 101 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: law or this regulation and have to be an act 102 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: of Congress or the government would have to change something. Well, 103 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: they pretty much just ignored that and said, yeah, it's 104 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: it's the law, but whatever, we don't care. And then 105 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: just no one calls him out on it because the 106 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 1: talking heads at CNBC or the quote unquote market, they 107 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: want the FED to come in and prop things up 108 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 1: because they're taking a fifty haircut in their portfolio in 109 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: the last thirty days. And you got Acmin coming out 110 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: on CNBC and basically crying, trying to beg people to 111 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 1: buy stocks. And I have nothing against him. I think 112 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: he's a brilliant guy and I'd love to interview him. 113 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: But well, I'll just say that he is emotional and 114 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: really pleading with people to get out there and not 115 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: only stay home, but also to kind of buy stocks, 116 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: Like Okay, well, why why is he doing this? He's 117 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: got to be talking his book. And I'd be pretty 118 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: emotional too if I ran ten billion dollars and I 119 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: just lost five billion of it in the last thirty days. 120 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: But anyway, the bottom line is every week, every day 121 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: that we move forward into this crisis, we're seeing the 122 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: FED take end the government for that matter, taking more 123 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: and more measures that really just ignore the law, and 124 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 1: the bottom lines, are just gonna do whatever they think 125 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: they need to do in order to keep the bubbles inflated. Now, Um, 126 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: we kind of jumped right into thick of it because 127 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: that's kind of where we are. Um. But if we 128 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: want to just rewind the clock a little bit, this 129 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: is not new. This is not because of the virus. 130 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: This is been going on for a long period of time. 131 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: I mean, you've been talking about this well before. So 132 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: this is um, this isn't something like, oh, we have 133 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: this crisis, let's do this. They've been doing this right 134 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: that this is only accelerating it or is this completely new. Well, 135 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: there's a couple of programs that are completely new, but 136 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: it's still the same. It's a continuation, right, it's in 137 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: the continuation and acceleration. Uh yeah, with it, with this 138 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: with some of them. Right, with some of these programs, 139 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: I believe, if I'm not mistaken, that they are new 140 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: and they are to get around having to go through 141 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: the primary dealers, and the primary dealers make decisions or 142 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: take action in order for those reserves that the FED 143 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 1: has to get out into the system. But as far 144 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: as UM, the majority of the acronyms, they used them 145 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight. But you know, to be clear, 146 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: quantitative easing started off in the end of two thousand 147 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 1: eight and was supposed to be a quote unquote temporary measure. 148 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: Remember Ben Bernanke came out promised everyone that wasn't monetizing 149 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 1: the debt, because the definition of monetizing the debt would 150 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: be if they kept it on the Fed's balance sheet. No, no, no, 151 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: just bringing these treasuries onto the balance sheet temporarily. We're 152 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,359 Speaker 1: gonna unwind as soon as we're out of the crisis. 153 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: And who yelling said it's just gonna be just like uh, 154 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: watching paint dry. Yeah, I think we're her words or someone. 155 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: And so we found that it's not going to be 156 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 1: like watching paint dry because they try to unwind the 157 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: balance sheet. And by the way, after q E one, 158 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: now I have q E two, have q E three, 159 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 1: we try to unwind. That doesn't work. We have the 160 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: not que, which was them bailing out the repo market 161 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: back in September sevent And so my point is we've 162 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: had this quote unquote temporary stimulus from QE that's now 163 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: not only permanent but growing exponentially. And then you combine 164 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: that everything that they do has the same type of effect. 165 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: Why because it goes back to what I was saying earlier, 166 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: with the entire economy being built on asset bubbles, you 167 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: continually have to more and more and more money. You 168 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 1: have to be more interventionist to make sure that those 169 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: bubbles aren't collapsing. So let's look at the stimulus. They 170 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: just came out with two trillion dollars. Okay, but we 171 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: had a stimulus package back into nine but that was 172 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: only roughly eight billion. So you see the amount of 173 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 1: queue that they're having to do, the amount of stimulus, 174 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 1: the amount of the deficits that the government has to 175 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 1: run in order to profit these bubbles just gets more, more, 176 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: more and more. So the point is any temporary program 177 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 1: they come up with, whether it's in RIPO, whether it's 178 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: in I think now with these four letter acronyms, I 179 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 1: don't think these are gonna go away anytime soon. I 180 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: think they'll be more permanent. And it just gets to 181 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 1: a point where you're almost like Japan, where the Fed 182 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: owns the bond market and they own whatever E T s. 183 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: If it gets bad enough off, I think they just 184 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: ignore that and buy stocks directly or bonds directly. But 185 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 1: it's it's not temporary, it just it keeps growing and 186 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: growing and growing. And right now, let's remember too, the 187 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: FED did this originally to give confidence to the market, 188 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 1: so they had kind of this Fed put and so 189 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: that means the Fed is kind of back stopping the market. 190 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: What we know right now that's gone, that's expired, because 191 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: every time the Fed came out with a bigger bazuka 192 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks, the markets just shaking 193 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: it off. It goes up for the next hour and 194 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: then just tanks. The only thing that's um kind of 195 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: propelled this market higher is this stimulus package that the 196 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: government has come out with. But what happens when the 197 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 1: sugar high from the stimulut from the stimulus package wears 198 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,680 Speaker 1: off and all of a sudden people go back to 199 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 1: reality and say, oh wait, the job report or the 200 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: unemployment numbers went up by three point three million. Right 201 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: then what happens next week when the there's another three 202 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: million jobs that are lost And and generally, if you 203 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: look through history, you'll find that the tipping point for 204 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,239 Speaker 1: the United States going into a recession is always about 205 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate. Right, so when the unemployment rate starts 206 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 1: to spike, that's when things get bad. And not only 207 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 1: are we spiking now from an all time low. But 208 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: we're just I mean, it's a it's a a parabolic 209 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 1: move when you look at a chart. And I'd also 210 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: like to remind people that are comparing this to two thousand, 211 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,719 Speaker 1: eight thousand nine that back then the jobless claims the 212 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: number we receive today at its height was maybe six 213 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: hundred thousand, SI, there you go, and then today it's 214 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 1: it's three point two or three point three millions. So 215 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: the previous high was I think and it was seven 216 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: hundred and two thousand, six and fifty thousand, and now 217 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 1: now millions. Yeah, So this this seems like um to me. 218 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 1: You know, if we trace this back to the break 219 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: from the gold standard, if that's nine, nine seventy one, 220 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 1: wherever number you want to start looking at. We've started 221 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 1: building up the debt and it seems like two eight seven, 222 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 1: two thousand, two thousand and eight, two thousand and eleven. 223 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 1: It keeps trying to de leverage that debt, right, and 224 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: the Fed just keeps, no, don't, let's just pump more 225 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 1: debt in. But there's so much bad debt out there, 226 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 1: as you say, all this junk that's out there, and 227 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: it's just it just it just goes away in the 228 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: blink of an eye. And and and that's what they're doing. 229 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: They just keep trying to like reinflate it with more 230 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: debt and then each time it just takes more and 231 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 1: more and more. Yeah, that's exactly what happens. And it's 232 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: just like taking a drug or uh, you know, drinking 233 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: or anything that the more of the drug that you take, 234 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: the more you need to get high, the lot of 235 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: diminishing returns. Yeah, exactly. So I think that's what's going 236 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: on right now. We know that the FED is now 237 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 1: pushing on a string, and at what point do we 238 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 1: get where the government stimulus package has the same type 239 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: of effect. And that's when you've really got problems because 240 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: if you can't inflate a bubble through monetary policy, and 241 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: if you can't do it through fiscal policy, then what's 242 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: left other than the FED doing what I think they've 243 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: set themselves up to do now, and that's just to 244 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: buy and take the private sector balance sheet onto the 245 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: balance sheet of the Fed. You know, it's a it's 246 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: a scary thought thinking about that. And before we dive 247 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: into that, I'm just curious. You know, we talked about 248 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: the law of diminishing returns, and so we can see that, right, 249 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: it was fifteen trillion, thirty trillion, I mean, what's it 250 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: going to be this time? Right? Each time it gets 251 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: more and more, and it almost seems like more money 252 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 1: is being put out than the economic growth that we're 253 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: getting back in return. Or we're almost at that point? 254 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: Is that so like we're spending more than we're getting 255 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: are we? I mean there yet? Yeah, There's been several 256 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: studies done that show once the debt to GDP gets 257 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: up to a certain level in a country, that every 258 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 1: single dollar or every single um uh yeah, I guess 259 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: every dollar or the government spends, they get back less 260 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: in return. So there's an opposite money multiplier in fact, 261 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: and I think we're there. I think the number that 262 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: they came out with, I wish I could remember the 263 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: specific study. It's very famous, but they said about a 264 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 1: hundred to a hundred and ten percent of g d P. 265 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: And I want to make sure that people are are 266 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: clear that because a lot of people in the market 267 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: or on Twitter, they say, well, yeah, we could be 268 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: like Japan where they're buying all of these e t 269 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: f s and the bonds, like we talked about earlier, 270 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: and they're printing all of this money and it really 271 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: hasn't created inflation. It's more created kind of a zombie 272 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: economy where they just have very low deflation for for 273 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 1: decades on end. And although that is a possibility, I 274 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: think in the United States, it's not a probability. The 275 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: probability is very low that we see that because of 276 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: the dynamics with the reserve currency, the dollar, and how 277 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 1: much the FED will have to print, and the fact 278 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: that we're that we're seeing the supply chains being disrupted 279 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: within the United States. And I think with what's going 280 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: on with the the the illness will call it. I 281 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: don't know if you're gonna put this on YouTube, but 282 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: we'll say will say the illness. Everyone knows what I'm 283 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 1: talking about. There you go, There you go. I think 284 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: you could see a situation where there's a lot less 285 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 1: goods and services that are imported, and if there are 286 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: fewer goods and services being imported, there's more dollars or 287 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: there's fewer dollars being exported, so more dollars are staying 288 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: within the demand stick economy. And if you combine that 289 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: with mm T, which is a part of the stimulus package, 290 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,199 Speaker 1: and you combine that with the FED creating all of 291 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: these additional deposits, because as I'm sure you know, what, 292 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 1: what most people don't understand is when the FED creates 293 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: money and they just we call it print money, they're 294 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 1: they're not really printing the money that you that most 295 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 1: people think of. It's it's not it is kind of dollars, 296 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: but it's more it's it's it's bank money. It's just 297 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: reserves for the for the banks and the primary dealers 298 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: that are under the Fed's umbrella. So in order for 299 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,120 Speaker 1: the money that the FED prints to get out into 300 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: the real economy, well before it took uh an action 301 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: of the primary deal they would have to do something. 302 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: They'd have to buy a financial asset, or they would 303 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 1: have to create a loan, and that creates an additional deposit, 304 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 1: which makes the money supply grow. So if you have 305 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 1: the FED now going directly to the real economy to 306 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,719 Speaker 1: create deposits, the government is doing it as well with 307 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 1: MMT and all these other programs. And you have the 308 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 1: fact that there's fewer dollars escaping the United States, then 309 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: you have just simple more dollars chasing the same amount 310 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 1: of goods or services, or I would argue actually fewer 311 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: goods and services because if we start not only the 312 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: supply chains being broken down right now because of this illness, 313 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: but also in the future, if you have Trump or 314 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: Biden or whomever come out and say, listen, we need 315 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: to stop producing face masks in China. We can't be 316 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: reliant on uh India for our pharmaceuticals. We can't be 317 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: reliant on Taiwan for our ventilators. So we've got to 318 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 1: do all these things in the United States. Well, that 319 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,159 Speaker 1: takes time first and all. You can't just wave a 320 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 1: magic wand and have all these supply chains appear. So 321 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: in the interim you have a reduced amount of supply, 322 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: and even when that supply comes online, it's at a 323 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: much much higher ice because you're producing that in a 324 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: developed economy as opposed to a Vietnam something like that. 325 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 1: So the bottom line is you have less goods and services, 326 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: you have more dollars chasing them and fewer dollars escaping. 327 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: So if you have fewer dollars escaping, you can have 328 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: a quote unquote strong dollar. And I talked about this 329 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 1: in a video this morning, but you can have a 330 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 1: strong dollar. So every single time the average Joe turns 331 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: on CNBC, it's the dollars strong, Holy cow, the dollars strong. 332 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: The d X y is at one ten, it's at 333 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: one dollars, uh, you know, crushing the euro, it's crushing 334 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 1: the Aussie dollar or the yen, anything like this. While 335 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: at the same time, the average Joe is going down 336 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 1: to whole Foods and the price of his apples are 337 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,880 Speaker 1: going from a dollar to two dollars, to three dollars, 338 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,239 Speaker 1: to four dollars to five dollars. And so there's this 339 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 1: disconnect I think with people, and that's something that I'm 340 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 1: trying to preach as much as I can that hey, 341 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 1: let's not let's understand that you have to compartmentalize your 342 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:12,679 Speaker 1: personal cp I with the strength or weakness of the 343 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: dollar that you hear on TV. And and this is why. 344 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: It's because of what's going on with the FED, the 345 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 1: government and the the illness. And but I also I 346 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 1: want to be clear too that the economy was extremely, 347 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 1: extremely weak, and it was built on a house of cards. 348 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: This at some point in time, we would have had 349 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: this happen, whether it was with this illness or something else, 350 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: and a lot of people say, oh, we can have 351 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,959 Speaker 1: this v shape recovery, which we might have due to liquidity, 352 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: but we won't have due to fundamentals, because they say, well, 353 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,119 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate was low, we had such a great 354 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: economy prior to this. My rebuttal to that is always 355 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: very simple. If we had such a great economy prior 356 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 1: to going into this crisis, why do we have interest 357 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 1: rates at zero? Right? Right? Like why did the economy 358 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: need interest rates solo? Why was it when Powell took 359 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 1: rates up to two or two point to five all 360 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 1: of a sudden things started to implode? Right? If we 361 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: had such an awesome economy, If we had such an 362 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: amazing economy, don't you think we should be able to 363 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: normalize interest rates? And why can't the Fed unwind their 364 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 1: balance sheet? Why do they have to do repo? Why 365 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 1: did they have to do que if we've got such 366 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: an amazing economy? Right? Yeah, it was definitely cracking up 367 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: well before the sickness. It was it was it was 368 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 1: kind of like I called it at first, I said 369 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: it was like the pin prick on a balloon, But 370 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 1: really it was like getting a nail and a tire 371 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: that was already deflating. Yeah, so uh, one of those. 372 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: But you know, yeah, you're right, everybody saying the dollars 373 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 1: too strong, the dollars too strong. I see lots of 374 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: people calling, you know, to let's weaken the dollar, weaken 375 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: the dollar. Um. But of course the dollar is the strongest. 376 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: Everyone's flying to liquidity. Um. They're trying to do that 377 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: right by printing more and lowering rates and all these programs. UM. 378 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: But I guess your last video you were kind of 379 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: saying that these limited, these unlimited billouts actually lead to 380 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:16,200 Speaker 1: the dollar going down. So right now it's the dollars 381 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: going up. But they're doing these bells to try to 382 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 1: weaken them. But you think they overshoot the goal and 383 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: maybe they just it just ends up making it two weeks. Well, 384 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: we've got to define what we're talking about by a week. 385 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 1: Dollar first and foremost. So if you're talking about the 386 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 1: dollar relative to foreign currencies, that would be one answer. 387 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 1: But if we're talking about the dollar relative to the 388 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 1: apples that you buy, the whole foods, that would be 389 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 1: a completely different answer. Or maybe the dollar compared to 390 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: the bond market, or the dollar compared to a specific 391 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: stock or the SNP, so I I really want to 392 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: encourage people to compartmentalize those So I could see a 393 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 1: situation because of what I explained before that the dollar 394 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 1: could definitely go up. Mean, I agree with Brent Johnson 395 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: and well, I can totally see where he's coming from, 396 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,879 Speaker 1: whether it's a guy like Brent or Jeff Snyder or 397 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: anyone who's in that route Paul with that dollar bowl camp. 398 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 1: But what they're saying is isn't necessarily that the prices 399 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 1: of goods and services, or the price of your healthcare 400 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: or the price of gasoline or your rent is going 401 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 1: to go down. They're saying that the value of the 402 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 1: dollar relative to the Euro is going to go up. Right, 403 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: That's a totally different argument. And I do see a 404 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: possibility where they'd have to come in with a Plaza 405 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 1: accord two point oh and artificially lower the value of 406 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 1: the dollar. They meaning the FED in the foreign FX 407 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: markets to pump enough dollars out there. They've got the 408 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:51,439 Speaker 1: swap lines going right now with the other central banks, 409 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 1: with the majority of central banks except for China, and 410 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 1: that could ease the pressure. But even if you ease 411 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 1: that pressure, it's still kind of creating more dollar or 412 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 1: demand in the future. So and I don't it's it's 413 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: difficult because you've got them some countries that would really 414 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: like to see a dollar being devalued. Some countries would 415 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: not be too keen on that. So I don't think 416 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,120 Speaker 1: you're going to get a universal Hey, yeah, let's all 417 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: hold hands, kumbaya. Let's bring down the dollar like they 418 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:28,360 Speaker 1: did in nineteen eighty five, I think it was. But there, 419 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: I think the FED can just say, listen, we don't 420 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,120 Speaker 1: care what you want to do. We're just gonna take 421 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: five trillion dollars and pump it into the FX markets 422 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 1: and just be like a currency manipulator, just like China 423 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 1: has done for so long, and they just bring it down. Now, 424 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: that's not to say, now let me play devil's advocate here. 425 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,640 Speaker 1: That's not to say that even if they did that, 426 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 1: you would say you would see hyper inflation in the 427 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: United States. Let's remember that when they did plase accord 428 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 1: one point. Oh, we'll call it. The value view of 429 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: the dollar in the FX markets, especially relative to the 430 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: the German mark and the yen, went down over two 431 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 1: years by five zero. But if you look at inflation 432 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: in the United states. It's still only was up maybe 433 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 1: five or six percent per year, So again, completely completely 434 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: different buckets, right, Yeah. And and the way they measure 435 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,680 Speaker 1: that inflation, like you said, doesn't take everything new an account. 436 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 1: So everyone knows the price of gas went up, and 437 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 1: the price of homes went up, and you know, all 438 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: the things that we need. The CPI doesn't measure those 439 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 1: for some reason. Right. Uh, school went up, healthcare went up, 440 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 1: I mean, everything's gone up, right Yeah. And everyone's CPI 441 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: is different because of what they buy. So my cp 442 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 1: I as an example, is completely different than some like 443 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,439 Speaker 1: a school teacher that's making thirty dollars a year because 444 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: the prices of the stuff I buy is uh, it 445 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,439 Speaker 1: might be staying the same, or even if buying the 446 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 1: same types of items like food, let's call it, it's 447 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:07,360 Speaker 1: a much lower percentage of my overall income. Where if 448 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 1: you've got a school teacher making forty grand year, where 449 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: the majority of her or his income is going to rent, healthcare, food, gas, 450 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: he or she could experience fiftcent inflation per year those 451 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 1: specific items that occupy of their paycheck. And um, all 452 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: while the dollar is getting strong or supposedly very strong, 453 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: so um it's uh, it's like watching a car crash. Right, 454 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: we're with witnessing this all in real time. It's an 455 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,919 Speaker 1: it's an interesting time to be watching the markets. We 456 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: can see the development that is going down. We can 457 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 1: see uh you know models like you said, maybe Japan, 458 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 1: maybe it's different, et cetera. What do you think I mean? 459 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: On your YouTube channel, you say helping you build wealth 460 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: and thrive. So how do we take this information and 461 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 1: discern it in a way that we could try to 462 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: thrive from this um? Right? How do we decipher this? 463 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 1: What are we watching for and what are we trying 464 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 1: to do? Well? First of all, I like to try 465 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 1: to encourage people to compartmentalize their portfolio as well. So 466 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 1: what I do is I have ten percent for insurance 467 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,239 Speaker 1: for an investment, which I would define is something that 468 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 1: pays me to own it, and then ten percent for 469 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 1: a speculation, which I define is just something I'm betting 470 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 1: on the price going up. His insurance is like gold, 471 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 1: like precious metals, like absolutely would be gold, not even silver. 472 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 1: It would just be physical. Gold wouldn't be an e 473 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 1: t F. Just physical. And that you're I'm not trying 474 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 1: to get rich. I'm just trying to maintain the purchasing 475 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: power that I already have. So with I think oil 476 00:27:54,400 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 1: down a barrel, you see companies like Exxon, Chevron, Um, Shell, 477 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,440 Speaker 1: Dutch really really just tanking in price. And again it's 478 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 1: not that they don't have problems. They definitely do, but 479 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 1: at a certain point, it's all a function of price. 480 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,120 Speaker 1: And if I can get a twelve percent dividend, let's say, 481 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 1: on an Exxon, and I know they've got a lot 482 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 1: of debts and they've they've got but I'm not too 483 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,439 Speaker 1: worried about that long term. And I also realized that 484 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 1: they could stop paying their dividend over the next one year, 485 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 1: so it's very realistic. But listen, I'm not buying Exxon 486 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 1: right here to hold for three weeks or six weeks. 487 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 1: I'm buying it to hold for ten years. And if 488 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 1: you believe that cars are still going to run on 489 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 1: gas in call it ten years, then I think you've 490 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 1: got to believe the price of Exxon will most likely 491 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 1: increase above and beyond call it thirty five dollars, and 492 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 1: they'll be able to pay their divid an end, and 493 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: they might most likely be able to increase their dividend 494 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 1: after a year, after a year and a half, after 495 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 1: all of this is in the rear view mirror. Even 496 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 1: if the economy goes into a Japan type situation, that 497 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: still doesn't mean that oil is at twenty barrel. And 498 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 1: it's not to say that can't go down to three 499 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 1: or ten. But what I like to advise people and 500 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: what I try to do myself, and psychologically it's actually 501 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 1: very hard to do, but I try to completely ignore 502 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 1: whether the price of x y z asset is going 503 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 1: up or down. I just forget about it. And I 504 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 1: just asked myself, is this cheap or is it expensive? 505 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 1: And if it's cheap historically speaking, then I buy it. 506 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 1: If it's if it's expensive, then if it's in my portfolio, 507 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 1: then I go ahead and sell it. So I think 508 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 1: you've got to look at the oil right now and say, 509 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 1: historically it's definitely very cheap. I'm not saying now is 510 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 1: the time to go in. But what I'm doing is 511 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 1: just starting a watch list of stocks or assets that 512 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 1: I would like to buy at a specific price, and 513 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 1: if they get down to that price, maybe I pulled 514 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 1: the trigger a little bit. I think that's something proactive 515 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 1: everyone can do. Also, I think that the average Joe 516 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 1: or Jane can always go out and make sure, make sure, 517 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 1: make sure, make sure they've got a fixed rate mortgage. 518 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: And I know the majority of people in the United 519 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 1: States do. But if you don't make that change, Yeah, 520 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: now is the time. You've got interest rates at at 521 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: five thousand year lows. Go ahead and lock them in 522 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 1: right now, because over the next ten twenty thirty years, 523 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: while you're paying off this mortgage, the chances are very 524 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 1: high that the rate of inflation exceeds your interest rate. 525 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: And if the rate of inflation exceeds your interest rate, 526 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 1: that's a transfer of wealth from the lender to the borrower. 527 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:01,720 Speaker 1: In other words, it's a transfer of wealth from the 528 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 1: bank to you. And that's what you want. That's I 529 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: love that point. I'm like your thesis on you know, 530 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: the fed by and everything que unlimited. The dollar goes 531 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 1: to zero, crashing the system, the house of cards, as 532 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 1: you said, crashes at some point, I mean, do we 533 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 1: start to look at like, Okay, well, shoot, maybe equities 534 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 1: won't be a good play. I mean, maybe they run 535 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 1: out of ammunition. Maybe the diminution returns get to it. 536 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,720 Speaker 1: Maybe it's more about gold, Maybe it's about lifeboats, alternatives 537 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: outside of the dollar, or you don't think it gets 538 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 1: that bad, No, I do. I don't know that the 539 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: dollar goes to zero, and I definitely don't think it 540 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 1: goes to zero short term. I think five years, ten years, 541 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 1: it could go not to zero, but it could lose 542 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 1: call it fifty of its value, could lose of its 543 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 1: value per year. But I think that in what I'm 544 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 1: talking about is not only in the United States, but 545 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 1: outside the United States against the Euro or against all 546 00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:02,000 Speaker 1: these other currencies. So I could see I definitely could 547 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,160 Speaker 1: see hyper inflation if you define it by the dollar 548 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:09,320 Speaker 1: losing fifty of its value on an annual basis. Totally 549 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 1: could see that in five ten years. But I don't 550 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,120 Speaker 1: see it in the next And what do you think 551 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 1: about f D. I see it was a pretty interesting 552 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 1: The head of f D I C put that video 553 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,320 Speaker 1: out right and said, everything safe, don't be worried. Um, 554 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,000 Speaker 1: this tells you all you need to know. Why why 555 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: do they have to come out and do that? Right? Uh, 556 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 1: let me touch on your earlier point. Uh. I do 557 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 1: think long term you want to have hedges against the dollars. 558 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 1: So that's why I like physical gold for a speculation, 559 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 1: obviously you gotta throw a bitcoin in there. I think 560 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 1: the asymmetry is definitely what you want. A lot of 561 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 1: people get on me because they like to be an 562 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 1: either or type person. Either your gung ho about gold 563 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 1: and you think it should be a hundred percent of 564 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 1: your portfolio, or your super gung ho about bitcoin and 565 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 1: crypto and you think that should be a hundred percent 566 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: of your pol I really don't understand that. I don't 567 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 1: understand the arguments going back and forth between the two 568 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 1: camps because to me, we're all on the same team 569 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 1: and they're not even competing asset classes. In my book, 570 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,080 Speaker 1: they're totally They're not even apples and oranges. I always 571 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 1: say they're like apples, or they're like oranges and and 572 00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 1: Ford pickup trucks. That why would you not have both? 573 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 1: But one is insurance and one is a speculation. So 574 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 1: I wanted to touch on that. What was lost to 575 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 1: check your I appreciate that that, and actually I was 576 00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 1: just I talk about both. I've been a bitcoin guy, 577 00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,880 Speaker 1: I am. I talk about gold, and I constantly get 578 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 1: hit with that. But look, our goal, our job is 579 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 1: not to pick the one asset. Our goal is to 580 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 1: have an allocation and we met we we we do 581 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: it based off of risk and reward, and I like both. 582 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 1: I think there's room for both and and for a 583 00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 1: lot of the same reasons, but also for different reasons. Absolutely, yeah, 584 00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 1: you got. You gotta own different asset classes for different 585 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 1: reasons and different objectives within your portfolio to have a 586 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:07,000 Speaker 1: mathematical probability of you being ahead of the game in 587 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 1: the long run. And I don't want to get into 588 00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 1: the boring nerdy stuff. Some of my videos I go 589 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 1: into binomial calculators and the Kelly criterion because before I 590 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 1: got into entrepreneurship way back in college, I counted cards 591 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 1: at blackjack, So it always put me in that mindset 592 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:26,320 Speaker 1: of probabilities and money management. And so then we're watching 593 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 1: the FED go into quei infinity, a lot of you know, 594 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 1: potential inflation deflation to watch for. So as investors, if 595 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 1: we want to kind of keep an eye on that, 596 00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,280 Speaker 1: try to hedge against the dollar inflation at some point 597 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: through gold, maybe through bitcoin um and then keep an 598 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 1: eye on the world dominator stocks I like to call them, 599 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,799 Speaker 1: right the value stocks, and maybe look for good entry 600 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,759 Speaker 1: points at some point because you think even though the 601 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:56,479 Speaker 1: Fed's gonna go full full crazy Bazuoka style. Um, those 602 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,839 Speaker 1: stocks are gonna survive that. They're gonna prop them up 603 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 1: as long as they need to. Yeah, I think they're 604 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:06,319 Speaker 1: going to try. So where's your entry point? I'd go 605 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,960 Speaker 1: back to just asking the question, is it cheap or 606 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,160 Speaker 1: is it expensive? Like a lot of people are trying 607 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 1: to call a bottom right now, it's like it's the 608 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:18,120 Speaker 1: bottom by the dip, by the dip. Well, I don't 609 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,080 Speaker 1: do that because I look at the market cap to 610 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,240 Speaker 1: GDP you want to call it the buffet indicator, and 611 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,160 Speaker 1: or I look at a cape ratio and as even 612 00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:32,439 Speaker 1: though we've come down, um call it or so from 613 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 1: the highs, it doesn't mean the market's cheap. But the 614 00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 1: market is still extremely extremely overvalued. Of course their pockets 615 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,880 Speaker 1: of opportunity, that's true, But as a whole, the SMP 616 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,880 Speaker 1: is still up in the stratosphere. So I wouldn't be 617 00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 1: a buyer of the entire market until the cape ratio 618 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,360 Speaker 1: at least comes down below fifteen, and i'd like it 619 00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,320 Speaker 1: even below ten. So that's kind of what I'm looking 620 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 1: at as far as your blue chips for an entry point. 621 00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 1: But I'd also encourage people to look outside the United States, 622 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 1: because there's stocks in other markets that are down way 623 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 1: below where they were even in two thousand nine, and 624 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 1: a lot of these stocks are great dividend payers that 625 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:26,319 Speaker 1: would be considered blue chips in that other country. Of course, 626 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,040 Speaker 1: you gotta worry about the exchange risk if your expenses 627 00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:32,240 Speaker 1: are denominated in dollars. But I think that people should 628 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 1: maybe just start doing some research to see what opportunities exist, 629 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,880 Speaker 1: not only in the United States, but potentially outside of 630 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 1: the United States as well. Yeah, great, great advice. I 631 00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,480 Speaker 1: like that. What about one last question? What do you 632 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,600 Speaker 1: what do you think about the DOWT gold ratio? Do 633 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 1: you do you look at that? Yeah, I've seen that. 634 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:58,239 Speaker 1: I know it's um I think it's a lot like 635 00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,480 Speaker 1: the silver to gold ratio, and that I don't know. 636 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 1: I'm not good enough to know if that's an indicator 637 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 1: or if it's just something that's kind of interesting to 638 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:11,359 Speaker 1: look at. So I try to kind of stay in 639 00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 1: my lane, if you will, and just ask myself is cheaper? 640 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,840 Speaker 1: Is silver cheap compared to silver? And not necessarily is 641 00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 1: silver cheap compared to gold? I didn't I did a 642 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 1: video titled silver is not what you think it is. 643 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,080 Speaker 1: And I basically said, I don't believe in the gold 644 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,920 Speaker 1: to silver ratio. Silver isn't needed anymore, and and that 645 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,799 Speaker 1: that ratio is broken a long time ago. Um, the 646 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,279 Speaker 1: doubt of gold ratio, I still believe in that. So 647 00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,799 Speaker 1: that's something that I keep an eye on. But yeah, 648 00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,279 Speaker 1: I know I've was regarding the silver to gold. I 649 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,440 Speaker 1: interviewed Rick Rule the other day and he's in your camp. 650 00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 1: He he doesn't. He thinks it's kind of cool to 651 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,399 Speaker 1: look at, but it's not really an indicator. And uh, 652 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,520 Speaker 1: I know I interviewed Shift the other day and uh 653 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,120 Speaker 1: and Lynette Zang, and they're under the belief system that 654 00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 1: and they're old school. They've been doing us a long 655 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 1: time time, and they believe there's going to be a 656 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,760 Speaker 1: one to one ratio again. Whether the whether that means 657 00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:09,160 Speaker 1: the dows at twenty thousand and an ounce of gold 658 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,960 Speaker 1: is twenty thousand or five, it doesn't matter that. They 659 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 1: just think that at some point in time in the 660 00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 1: next couple of years, we're going to be at a 661 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:22,080 Speaker 1: one to one. If we have time for one more question, yeah, Um, 662 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,080 Speaker 1: so you did a video talking about Jim Rickards calling 663 00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,759 Speaker 1: the revaluation to gold. I kind of copied off of 664 00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,880 Speaker 1: your video about that as well, and so I'm curious 665 00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,400 Speaker 1: about that. I mean, if if you know, the unlimited 666 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:39,359 Speaker 1: bazooka cannons and the destruction of the dollar and all 667 00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,799 Speaker 1: the current I mean, we already see the you know, 668 00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:44,840 Speaker 1: I m F or the b I s calling for 669 00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:48,920 Speaker 1: digital currencies with their SDRs, which maybe like Chinese to 670 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,919 Speaker 1: people listening, But um, I'm curious based off that video. 671 00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,600 Speaker 1: I mean, if this qui infinity and diminishing returns and 672 00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:59,040 Speaker 1: it all fails, no confidence left in currencies. The argument 673 00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:00,839 Speaker 1: is the only way to restore confidence is to go 674 00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,439 Speaker 1: back to some gold standard, whether that's one percent or um. 675 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:08,200 Speaker 1: Do you think there's a good probability of that happening, 676 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 1: a very low probability or no chance, or where do 677 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:14,440 Speaker 1: you sit? I think there's a very good probability. That 678 00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,759 Speaker 1: will have to have a currency, and I have no 679 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,520 Speaker 1: idea what currency it will be. I don't know if 680 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 1: it will be digital. I would assume it would be digital. 681 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,759 Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a digital SDR or a 682 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 1: digital dollar or libra who knows something like that, but 683 00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,359 Speaker 1: or maybe a bitcoin, maybe hopefully. I mean that would 684 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:37,160 Speaker 1: be awesome. From a philosophical standpoint, There's nothing more that 685 00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:40,640 Speaker 1: I'd like to see than to have a decentralized currency 686 00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:46,439 Speaker 1: is as what we use in the world to transact. 687 00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,480 Speaker 1: But I I don't think the governments would be too 688 00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,480 Speaker 1: uh too keen on that to say the least. Why 689 00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:54,680 Speaker 1: would why would they ever why would they ever vote 690 00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:58,120 Speaker 1: to tie their hands behind their back? Right, Yeah, exactly exactly, 691 00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,840 Speaker 1: And to have a government back digital currency, it gives 692 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 1: them so much control. I don't think most people understand. 693 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:09,560 Speaker 1: I don't think they've pulled back the layer of the 694 00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,120 Speaker 1: onion because I hear a lot of people on Twitter 695 00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:14,480 Speaker 1: or even in the comments of my videos, they say, wow, 696 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,960 Speaker 1: the dollar, are it already is a digital currency? I mean, 697 00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,839 Speaker 1: I don't really use paper money. I just use electronic 698 00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,799 Speaker 1: digits on my bank account and I use an a 699 00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:26,279 Speaker 1: t M card. And what they're not understanding is if 700 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,120 Speaker 1: we had a true and you can correct me if 701 00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,480 Speaker 1: I'm wrong, but if we had a true digital currency 702 00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:36,319 Speaker 1: the way where they've each token let's call it has 703 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,480 Speaker 1: a serial number, and they track that it goes to 704 00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:44,879 Speaker 1: someone's electronic wallet, then the FED or the government could 705 00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:49,480 Speaker 1: control not only the supply, but they could control the demand, 706 00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,000 Speaker 1: and most people don't realize that. As an example, they 707 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:57,400 Speaker 1: could say, Okay, here's your worth of mm T everything 708 00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,400 Speaker 1: for this month, but you've got to spend it in 709 00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:04,560 Speaker 1: the next four eight hours. Yeah, yeah, exactly. It's programmable, 710 00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,360 Speaker 1: it's specific, you have to spend in this timeframe. You 711 00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,080 Speaker 1: can only use it for these certain things, like it 712 00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,319 Speaker 1: can be stopped, sees man, you know whatever. So for 713 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,239 Speaker 1: sure that's what they'd want um And I think that's 714 00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 1: kind of where it goes, is like a digital SDR 715 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,400 Speaker 1: most likely, but I would think it maybe has to 716 00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,200 Speaker 1: have some goal backing. Maybe it's yeah, that's yeah, that's 717 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:24,680 Speaker 1: where I was going with that. For sure. It's a 718 00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:28,920 Speaker 1: great point. I think that eventually the Fiat system, the 719 00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,680 Speaker 1: Fiat currency system that we've been trying out since nineteen 720 00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:36,200 Speaker 1: seventy one is in kind of going back to Brenton Woods. 721 00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,640 Speaker 1: That's going to collapse, and I think you're gonna have 722 00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:43,479 Speaker 1: a total loss of confidence, and not only the dollar 723 00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,160 Speaker 1: or the end the Euro, you name it. I don't 724 00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,479 Speaker 1: think that's tomorrow, but I think ten years, fifteen years 725 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,319 Speaker 1: down the road, that's where we're going to be. And 726 00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:57,879 Speaker 1: to your point, any currency is all about confidence, Any 727 00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:01,799 Speaker 1: economy really is all about confidence. To instill the confidence, 728 00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,600 Speaker 1: I don't think the government or the I M F 729 00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,680 Speaker 1: or whomever is issuing this currency is going to have 730 00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:12,240 Speaker 1: a choice but to back it with something that people 731 00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:16,160 Speaker 1: have confidence in. And again going back to Twitter and 732 00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:17,840 Speaker 1: in my comments, a lot of people say, oh, the 733 00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,880 Speaker 1: government would never back it with gold. That's crazy, that 734 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:23,839 Speaker 1: ties their hand. But they're implying that the government has 735 00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:27,480 Speaker 1: a choice. I don't know that they would have a 736 00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:32,320 Speaker 1: choice now whether the digital SDR or the digital dollar 737 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:39,120 Speaker 1: is backed by one who knows. But and then, of 738 00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,480 Speaker 1: course I think what will happen. So in the short term, 739 00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,839 Speaker 1: I think you all have this digital fiat that gives 740 00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,600 Speaker 1: them total control. I think that blows up. They have 741 00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:49,320 Speaker 1: to have something that's backed by gold. But I only 742 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:55,719 Speaker 1: think that last maybe ten twenty years, where everyone forgets 743 00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,600 Speaker 1: what happened with the disaster of fiat currency and you 744 00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:04,920 Speaker 1: have all the politicians or economists start claiming that, oh yeah, 745 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,920 Speaker 1: this this is our problem. Is this stupid gold standard. 746 00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:09,879 Speaker 1: We've got to get off this gold standard. We could 747 00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:13,000 Speaker 1: only have the ability and the control over the amount 748 00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,720 Speaker 1: of currency in the system, then we could just solve 749 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,160 Speaker 1: all the problems and we could just print money, and 750 00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:22,919 Speaker 1: everyone's going to forget about what happened ten fifteen years ago, 751 00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:27,480 Speaker 1: just like everyone now or thirty days ago forgot what 752 00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,600 Speaker 1: happened in the GFC. They totally forgot. Oh yeah, that 753 00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,520 Speaker 1: was the market can never go down. You hear all 754 00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:40,000 Speaker 1: these things, the narrative is exact or was exactly like 755 00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,680 Speaker 1: it was back in two thousand eight, two thousand and seven. 756 00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:47,960 Speaker 1: It's it's shocking that the recency bias of the notly 757 00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:51,560 Speaker 1: the mainstream media, but the population at large, and that 758 00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:55,040 Speaker 1: that they just have this kind of like a selective 759 00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:59,600 Speaker 1: amnesia where if if it's it's a cognitive dissonance type 760 00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:03,640 Speaker 1: of rationalizing, where if it makes them feel good about 761 00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,360 Speaker 1: their four oh one k or whatever they have invested 762 00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:07,759 Speaker 1: in the market, if that's going to give them more 763 00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,319 Speaker 1: purchasing car in the future, then they just kind of 764 00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,440 Speaker 1: tend to forget things that are inconvenient, or make up 765 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,280 Speaker 1: things or cherry picked data points to make it easier 766 00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,680 Speaker 1: to sleep at night, knowing that the stock market always 767 00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,440 Speaker 1: goes up, right, the dollar is always going to be 768 00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:29,839 Speaker 1: the world reserve currency. Well, I don't think so, right man. 769 00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:31,719 Speaker 1: So much more to talk about. I'd love to get 770 00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,040 Speaker 1: into some more of like the bailouts and things like that. 771 00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:35,880 Speaker 1: So many different angles we could go, but I know 772 00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,200 Speaker 1: we're out of time, so so we'll go ahead and 773 00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:40,480 Speaker 1: cut it off. But I appreciate you given the time 774 00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,440 Speaker 1: it was. It was a great conversation, and uh, thank you. 775 00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,280 Speaker 1: Yeah for sure. Let's I love the conversation. Let's definitely 776 00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:49,839 Speaker 1: do it again soon. Okay, thanks